@ FXUS64 KLUB 191639 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1139 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Much cooler Tuesday as a cold front passes through during the morning hours with a small chance for an isolated storm across the Rolling Plains. - Cooler and wetter conditions from mid to late week with a chance for heavy rainfall overnight Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current surface observations late this evening analyze the previously stalled front over the northern Texas Panhandle, where it has resumed its southward progression over the last hour. This FROPA is expected to make it's way into the far southern Texas Panhandle shortly after midnight, around the 06Z to 07Z timeframe. Behind the front, winds will shift out of the north-northeast where they may briefly become breezy around 30 to 40 mph. Additionally, there remains a slim window of opportunity for an isolated thunderstorm to develop along the frontal boundary as it progresses southward through the overnight period. This will be primarily across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains, where moisture will be maximized with the dryline slowly retreating westward. However, confidence remains a bit low in regards to precipitaion overnight with models all over the place with timing and location, if any storms at all develop. If they do, convergence along the frontal boundary along with steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km and bulk shear magnitudes around 40 knots would suggest the potential for large hail with any storm that develops. Precipitation chances will wane by daybreak Tuesday, thereafter mostly dry conditions are expected. As the front makes its way through the FA, post-frontal northerly winds will develop and last through much of the morning. Becoming easterly by Tuesday afternoon as a surface low develops over central New Mexico. With the post frontal airmass in place and upslope component to the wind a much cooler day is expected with highs in the 70s expected. Highs will vary across the region, and will remain dependent on the timing of the FROPA. NBM highs seem a bit to warm across our southern zones so opted for a blend of NBM 25th percentile to reflect the FROPA moving through shortly after daybreak. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances may exists late Tuesday afternoon and evening as the stalled FROPA to our south retreats back north late in the day. Compared to this time yesterday, most guidance has backed off on this scenario. Nonetheless, depending on how far north the boundary retreats will play a factor in the potential for convective initiation. Otherwise, a quiet night is expected for much of the region with cooler overnight temperatures across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle in the mid 40s to mid 50s while off the Caprock expect lows in the 60s thanks to increasing moisture and the potential for low stratus. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The main theme of the extended forecast package will be the daily afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through the weekend. Broad large scale troughing will remain established over portions of the western CONUS through the period, while the associated parent trough remains displaced to the north digging into the Canadian Provinces. Embedded perturbations tracking through the main flow out ahead of the base of the trough over the Desert Southwest are expected to translate through the region each day from mid to late week this week. Meanwhile off to our east, an upper level ridge will remain overspread much of the southeastern CONUS. This synoptic setup will support southwest flow aloft initially, before we see a more westerly regime set-up by late Wednesday in response to the upper low digging south into portions of the Intermountain West. This more zonal flow aloft will likely limit subtropical moisture transport into the region, with recent guidance placing the bulk of the moisture plume east of the area. This is also reflected in both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble runs with the QPF footprint favoring higher precipitation totals off to our east. Nonetheless, the upslope component to the surface winds with relatively easterly flow will work to transport moisture in from the Gulf allowing for rich low-level moisture to advect into the region. Dewpoints are progged in the 50s and 60s, with mid to upper 60 dewpoints positioned across the southeastern Rolling Plains where we expect the best moisture to be positioned. Similar to the m-d to upper level moisture, the better forcing for ascent looks to remain confined to a pair of H5 jet maximas that are forecasted to remain north and south of the region. Therefore, precipitation chances across the area will be dependent on the perturbations translating through the main flow and interacting with the moisture already in place. Ensembles continue to hint at the best opportunity for shower and thunderstorm activity being late Wednesday into Thursday morning, when the strongest vorticity max moves through the northern Texas Panhandle and West Texas region and taps into the plentiful moisture. If showers and thunderstorms are able to develop, there is a chance for heavy rainfall across portions of the region, primarily our southern counties, where we find PWATs around 1.25" to 1.50" which is well above the 90th percentile seasonal normal for this time of year. This will likely be the main severe threat with activity, although small hail cannot be ruled out given modest MLLR around 7 to 8 C/km and MUCAPE values around 1500-1700J/kg. Expect a similar set up each afternoon Thursday through Saturday as perturbations track through the region and attempt to tap in to the moisture in place across the region. As for temperatures, Tuesday's cold front will provide the much needed relief from the absurdly warm temperatures we saw last week and this past weekend. Easterly winds will remain in place as well through much of the week and with little to no change in heights and thickness values we can expect highs in the 70s to hold through at least Friday, before we begin to see a subtle warm up back in the 80s through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Skies will clear and NE winds will diminish through this evening. MVFR CIGs are likely at all sites by early Wednesday morning, with LIFR and reduced visibilities possible at KCDS. These will persist through the end of the current TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...19