@ FXUS61 KOKX 190521 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 121 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot airmass moving into the forecast region. Airmass getting relatively more humid also heading into midweek. Heat advisory NE NJ and NYC Tuesday late morning through Wednesday early evening. 2) Possible showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. Higher chances of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Marginal severe thunderstorm possibility. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend with chances of showers. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Mainly dry conditions continue into Tuesday with strong ridging aloft. Offshore high pressure and increasing low level SW warm air advection will make for much warmer temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as well. The models have shifted a few hours later with the timing of the cold front on Wednesday, thereby allowing for more daytime heating and less clouds. Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM Tuesday to 8PM Wednesday. This is the first high heat index event of the year for NE NJ and NYC. Warmest day Tuesday with SW flow and daytime mixing. Temperatures in the 90s for all of NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and much of interior Southern CT as well as much of Nassau County NY. Mid to upper 90s for high temperatures much NE NJ and NYC Metro for temperatures and heat indices. Dewpoints are mostly in the low 60s Tuesday. Slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. This same distribution exists for high temperatures on Wednesday as well but a few degrees cooler on average. The dewpoints increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday with values mainly in the low to mid 60s. So for Wednesday, temperatures a little less than the previous day but dewpoints a little higher than the previous day. Highs mostly in the lower 90s Wednesday for much of NE NJ and NYC with corresponding heat indices in the mid 90s. Again, slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. .KEY MESSAGE 2... There is some indication within the forecast models showing a pre-frontal trough developing across the interior for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for northern parts of the region. Possibility too for a strong to severe thunderstorm, with quick downburst of wind. This is just marginal risk. CAMs indicate this possibility of convection within their reflectivity fields. The cold front looks to move in first for Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT latter half of Wednesday afternoon and then crosses through the NYC Metro and coastal sections by early evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening. There is potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail. Flooding threat minimal with the westerly flow in the atmosphere and quick steering flow. However, a quick period of heavy rain and possible minor flooding cannot be ruled out with some thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend with quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. In its place, low pressure approaches from the south and west. Model variances on how far north the low reaches. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Northerly flow presents downslope warming first half of the day, allowing for coastal locations to be relatively warmer than inland. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid 60s to near 70 and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly really limiting the daytime warmth with more maritime influence. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure remains over the western Atlantic with a frontal system over the mid section of the country slowly approaching the terminals into Wednesday. VFR through the TAF period. There is a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly NW of the NYC metro. Confidence in the occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. SSW-SW winds under 10 kt early this morning increase to 10-15 kt mid to late morning and early afternoon. Gusts around 20 kt are possible in the afternoon and early evening with a few coastal terminals potentially seeing gusts up to 25 kt. There is a chance gusts will end up occasional. Any gusts should end around 00z with sustained wind speeds gradually weakening below 10 kt tonight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may end up occasional this afternoon. Very low chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly west of the NYC terminals this afternoon/early evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Late tonight: Mainly VFR. Low chance for IFR or lower conditions at KGON. Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with Showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. S/SW winds gusts 20-25kt day into eve. NW windshift in the evening with gusts ending. Thursday: Mainly VFR. Friday: Chance of showers and MVFR conditions. Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions through this morning. SCA on the ocean Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, marginal SCA for non- ocean waters but mostly below SCA criteria. Potential widespread SCA conditions Wednesday into Wednesday night. Mainly below SCA thereafter until holiday weekend when SCA conditions potentially return. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-103>108. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...DS MARINE...JM