@ FXUS61 KRLX 190703 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 303 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Little to no changes were made with the Day 1/Day 2 severe weather outlooks in our forecast area, still carrying Marginal Risks for both days amid the passing cold front. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Another unseasonably hot day on tap today before relief arrives for midweek and beyond. Record high temperatures could once again be challenged today. 2) A cold frontal passage late tonight into Wednesday will serve up unsettled weather through the Memorial Day weekend. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms track ahead of the boundary late tonight and once again Wednesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure centered off the Carolina coast will continue to encourage strong onshore flow into the forecast area today and once again serve up unseasonably hot temperatures this afternoon. Several of our climate sites observed record breaking high temperatures as a result of this pattern set up yesterday, and could once again be challenged today as daytime highs soar into the low 90s across the lowlands and 80s along the higher terrain. A cold front, spoken about in greater detail below in Key Message 2, will bring a relief from this early season warm spell, returning temperatures closer to their seasonable norm for the end of the work week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2... An active weather pattern looms with the arrival of a cold front late tonight. Until then, one more mostly dry day is on tap for the area, with the exception of some diurnally driven showers and storms that attempt to sprout within afternoon cumulus fields around the Ohio River Valley. The front is then progged to pivot in from the west starting late tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest hi-res simulated reflectivity depicts a line of showers and storms aligned along the boundary forming during peak heating hours this afternoon through Ohio and Indiana and promoting strong to severe thunderstorms through the course of the afternoon and evening. As this line approaches the western flank of our forecast area after sunset, this sharp line of convection will begin to shear apart and fade due to the loss of daytime heating. SPC continues to paint a Marginal Risk for severe weather through our southeast Ohio Counties before trailing off into a general risk for the rest of the area overnight tonight. Showers and embedded thunderstorms prevail overnight into Wednesday morning as the front makes slow eastward progress. For Wednesday, the front remains sluggish in its journey overhead, and will once again serve up afternoon thunderstorm potential for areas out ahead of the boundary. With abundant cloud coverage now in place, instability will be harder to come by for the bulk of our forecast area, and foresee most of the severe potential then shifting east of the Appalachian mountains. Despite a complete frontal passage progged for Wednesday night into Thursday, the boundary will remain in close proximity to the area as a result of the strong offshore surface high preventing forward progress eastward. In response, the front is likely to stall just to our south and eventually retreat northward by Saturday. This will maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in the Central Appalachians through the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Dry antecedent ground conditions should help keep flooding concerns at bay, but low lying areas and known trouble spots could begin to see localized issues by the end of the weekend depending upon radar trends and where the heaviest bands of rain sets up amid the stagnant frontal boundary. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions remain in place this morning amid a blanket of upper level clouds. While this trend is expected to hold through the day, am a bit skeptical of localized fog not developing around CRW Tuesday morning due to late night convection that passed over the airfield and produced light rain. This could certainly prime the area for fog as a result, and therefore a tempo group was introduced from 09z to 12z for this potential. Another mostly quiet, albeit unseasonably hot, weather day is expected on Tuesday before a cold front approaches late in the evening. Some isolated storms could form in the Ohio River Valley within afternoon cumulus development, but widespread restrictions will arrive just after the conclusion of the valid TAF period with showers and storms riding in along the frontal boundary for Wednesday morning. Calm or very light southerly flow is expected tonight, with southwest flow during the day on Tuesday. Breezes of 15-25 kts are expected at times from late morning onward, especially central/north. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Local restrictions due to fog at CRW may vary this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/19/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Patchy IFR is possible in convection Wednesday through the weekend. && .Climate... Several record high temperatures were set or tied on Monday. Observed / Prior Records ---------------------------------- CRW | 93 (Record) / 92 (1962) | HTS | 92 (Tied) / 92 (1906) | BKW | 88 (Record) / 87 (1962) | EKN | 90 (Record) / 89 (1911) | ---------------------------------- Record high temperatures could also be challenged on Tuesday. Forecast / Record High Temperatures --------------------- Tue, 5/19 | --------------------- CRW | 91 / 95 (1931) | HTS | 90 / 92 (1996) | CKB | 89 / 90 (1959) | PKB | 90 / 90 (1964) | BKW | 85 / 89 (1996) | EKN | 87 / 93 (1996) | --------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05 CLIMATE...05/GW