@ FXUS64 KSJT 191703 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening... Cold front just north of Childress at 130 AM expected to move along I-20 mid morning around 9 AM and then slow down as it moves south along a San Angelo to Brownwood line 3-4 PM. While isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this morning in the Big Country, a larger complex of strong to severe storms is expected to develop in the Concho Valley to Brownwood in maximum heating this afternoon. Complex then moves south and east into the I-10 corridor and NW Hill country this evening. With CAPES of 4000 J/kg and 0-6KM bulk shears of 30 to 35 KTS, supercells with very large hail over 2 inches possible. The complex of storms should move south of West Central by midnight, ending most of the severe weather threat. Precipital water values around 1.5 inches indicate efficient rainfall producers, and localized flooding possible, especially in urban areas. .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By the time Wednesday night rolls around, another low pressure trough strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and continues moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday night. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding through Wednesday night. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this trough moves east for the later half of the work Week. A couple of embedded disturbances within the flow are also being indicated as well, which offers support for multiple rounds of rain. In the meantime, high rain chances (70%) are in place for Thursday. Additional rounds of thunderstorms remain a possibility through at least Friday. We will have to monitor closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential through the end of this week. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Currently VFR at all sites as a cold front moves through from north to south. TSRA are expected to develop off of this cold front later this afternoon and evening, and affect KSJT, KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT during the evening hours. Have kept VCTS and TEMPO groups going from late this afternoon into the evening hours at these sites to address these storms. These TSRA should dissipate by 06Z, after which the cold front is expected to stall somewhere in our southern counties, giving east/northeast to northeast winds for our southern sites, with MVFR CIGs filling in behind the front after 06Z, and remaining through most of the morning Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 61 78 64 78 / 40 30 80 70 San Angelo 62 79 62 80 / 60 40 70 60 Junction 64 81 63 80 / 70 30 80 60 Brownwood 63 79 63 78 / 60 30 70 70 Sweetwater 60 77 62 79 / 30 30 80 60 Ozona 63 80 62 81 / 60 40 70 30 Brady 63 78 64 77 / 70 30 70 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...20