@ FXUS64 KSJT 200522 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1222 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon, with some being severe. Expect these storms to continue developing and expanding in coverage through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Most CAMs eventually expand this convection into a somewhat organized MCS, and move it south into south Texas later tonight. The main concerns will continue to be large hail and damaging winds. In addition, precipitable water values are between 1 and 1.5 inches, and with the generally slow movement of these storms, flash flooding will also be a concern. For Wednesday, CAMs disagree with each other on the coverage and intensity of possible convection, but with a boundary in the area, the moisture remaining in place, and continued southwest flow with embedded shortwave energy, we will likely have another at least medium (20%-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon as afternoon heating affects the area. We will continue to see at least a Slight Risk for severe storms, mainly for our southern counties Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An active weather pattern will persist through much of the long term with a persistent upper level southwest flow with disturbances moving across our area. Also, the combination of a cold front south of the area and abundant moisture(PW values 1 to 1.5 inches) will bring a risk of localized flash flooding, especially Wednesday night and Thursday as the WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall along and south of the I-20 corridor. Also, there is and isolated flash flood threat this weekend across the southeast part of the area. There are medium to high chances of rain for at least a few days in the long term. Also, there is an isolated severe weather threat(marginal risk) for the southern 2/3 of the area Tuesday evening across the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 70s and 80s, around to slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Thunderstorm complex has moved east, temporarily leaving VFR conditions. However, stratus with MVFR ceilings was moving back into KABI and the rest of the terminals should fall back to MVFR overnight. Ceilings should rise to VFR by early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but isolated thunderstorms may also affect the rest of the terminals. A larger complex of storms will move in late evening from west to east, with MVFR ceilings returning by midnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 76 63 78 63 / 30 60 70 10 San Angelo 77 62 80 63 / 50 70 40 20 Junction 80 63 80 63 / 50 80 50 20 Brownwood 77 63 77 62 / 30 70 70 20 Sweetwater 75 62 78 63 / 40 60 50 10 Ozona 78 62 81 63 / 70 70 30 30 Brady 77 63 77 63 / 40 70 60 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...04