@ FXUS63 KTOP 192348 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 648 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool temperatures through Thursday then much warmer late this weekend into early next week. - Precipitation chances return Wednesday night and continue into early Friday though no severe weather expected. - Mainly dry conditions likely for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cloud cover slowly diminishing with cool north winds keeping early afternoon temps in the 50s. Clearing trend continues into tonight though northeast winds stay up somewhat and should keep any frost potential in check; NBM 10th percentile has mid 30s for lows in northern portions of Republic and Washington Counties. Dry air remains in place Wednesday but little advection should keep highs in the 60s. South to southeast flow returns around 850 mb Wednesday night inducing weak though consistent isentropic upglide into at least Thursday night for high rain chances at all locations over this period. Better coverage and intensity may come Thursday night as a southern branch upper wave moves through. Instability remains meager with MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg though PW around 1.25 inches could support some decent rain. Rain and cloud keeps Thursday's highs cool again and 60s could be aggressive in a wetter scenario. Should see a break in precip Friday for warmer temperatures. Upper troughing remains just upstream into early Saturday which supports modest precip chances Friday night but features to support precipitation beyond this are uncertain at best with large spreads in solutions by Monday evening. A general southerly low-level flow supports temperatures back above normal by Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 TOP/FOE cigs have been hovering near 3kft and this looks to stay that way for a few hours with the edge of MVFR stratus slow to move east. Have utilized a tempo group for the first few hours of the period before clouds eventually clear later tonight at all TAF sites. Can't entirely rule out the possibility of shallow ground fog around sunrise with skies clearing and light winds, but confidence is not high enough to mention with this issuance. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Picha