008 

FXUS24 KWNC 111406

PMDENS

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

900 AM EDT Thu 11 Dec 2025



NOTE: figures mentioned in the discussion are available on

the internet at HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



ENSO Alert System Status: La Nina Advisory



Synopsis: La Nina is favored to continue for the next month

or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in

January-March 2026 (68percent chance).



La Nina persisted in November, as indicated by the continuation

of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the

central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The

latest weekly Nino-3.4 index value was -0.5degC, with the other

Nino index values between -0.2degC and -0.4degC (Fig. 2). Recent

negative subsurface temperature anomalies weakened slightly

(averaged from 180deg-100degW; Fig. 3), but below-average

temperatures continued from the surface to 200m depth in the

eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). The tropical

atmosphere reflected La Nina, with low-level easterly wind

anomalies evident in the central Pacific and upper-level

westerly wind anomalies observed across most of the equatorial

Pacific Ocean. Enhanced convection persisted over Indonesia

and suppressed convection was near the Date Line (Fig. 5). The

traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were

positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system

remains consistent with La Nina.



The IRI multi-model predictions indicate La Nina will

continue in the December-February (DJF) 2025-26 season,

but then ENSO-neutral is favored for January-March (JFM) 2026

(Fig. 6). Together with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble,

the team continues to slightly support a weak La Nina through

DJF (54percent chance), before transitioning to ENSO-neutral

in JFM. Even after equatorial Pacific SSTs transition to

ENSO-neutral, La Nina may still have some lingering influence

through the early Northern Hemisphere spring 2026 (e.g., CPC's

seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Nina is favored to continue

for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral

most likely in January-March 2026 (68percent chance; Fig. 7).



This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather

Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric

conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction

Center website (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert

Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available

here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for

8 January 2026. To receive an e-mail notification when the

monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send

an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.







$$