385 

FXUS24 KWNC 121421

PMDENS

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

900 AM EDT Thu 12 Feb 2026



NOTE: figures mentioned in the discussion are available on

the internet at HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



ENSO Alert System Status: La Nina Advisory



Synopsis: A transition from La Nina to ENSO-neutral is expected

in February-April 2026 (60percent chance), with ENSO-neutral

likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer

(56percent chance in June-August 2026).



La Nina continued in January 2026, with below-average sea

surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the east-central

equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The latest weekly Nino-3.4

index value was -0.9degC, with the westernmost (Nino-4)

and easternmost (Nino-1+2) indices at -0.4degC and 0.0degC,

respectively (Fig. 2). The equatorial subsurface temperature

index (average from 180deg-100degW) significantly increased

(Fig. 3), reflecting the strengthening and expansion of

above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific

Ocean (Fig. 4). Atmospheric anomalies weakened due to

subseasonal variability, but still reflected aspects of La

Nina. Low-level westerly wind anomalies were present over

the western equatorial Pacific, and upper-level westerly

wind anomalies continued across the east-central equatorial

Pacific. Suppressed convection was weakly evident near the

Date Line and over the equatorial Maritime Continent, with

enhanced convection located off the equator (Fig. 5). The

traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were

positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system

remained consistent with La Nina.



The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average,

including the NCEP CFSv2 (Fig. 6), favor the onset of

ENSO-neutral in February-April 2026. The team consensus also

reflects this outcome, with ENSO-neutral persisting through the

Northern Hemisphere summer 2026. For the late summer and beyond,

there is a 50-60percent chance of El Nino forming, though model

uncertainty remains considerable and forecasts made this time

of year tend to have lower accuracy. In summary, a transition

from La Nina to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April

2026 (60percent chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting

through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56percent chance in

June-August 2026; Fig. 7).



This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather

Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric

conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction

Center website (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert

Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available

here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12

March 2026. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly

ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail

message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.







$$