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FXUS24 KWNC 111306

PMDENS

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

900 AM EDT Thu 11 Jun 2026



NOTE: figures mentioned in the discussion are available on

the internet at HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory



Synopsis: El Nino conditions are present and expected to

strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.



El Nino conditions developed over the past month, as shown

by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the

central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The latest

weekly Nino-3.4 index value was +0.7degC, with the westernmost

(Nino-4) and easternmost (Nino-1+2) indices at +0.7degC and

+2.1degC, respectively (Fig. 2). The equatorial subsurface

temperature index (average from 180deg-100degW) decreased

in the past month (Fig. 3), but significantly above-average

subsurface temperatures remained in the central and eastern

equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). Low-level westerly wind anomalies

and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were evident over

the central equatorial Pacific. Convection was slightly above

average over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific

and was near or below average over Indonesia (Fig. 5). The

traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were

negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system

reflected the onset of El Nino conditions.



The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average,

including the NCEP CFSv2 (Fig. 6), forecasts El Nino to

intensify into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. High

confidence in El Nino (Fig. 7) is also linked to anomalously

high oceanic heat content and expanding westerly wind anomalies

across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. There is a 63percent

chance of a very strong El Nino during November-January

(Fig. 8) that would rank among the largest El Nino events in

the historical record going back to 1950. Even very strong El

Nino events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere,

but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in

favor of expected outcomes (see CPC outlooks for probabilities

of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Nino conditions are

present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere

winter 2026-27.



This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather

Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric

conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction

Center website (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert

Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available

here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9

July 2026. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly

ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail

message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.







$$