345 

FXUS24 KWNC 131300

PMDENS

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

900 AM EDT Thu 13 Aug 2026



NOTE: figures mentioned in the discussion are available on

the internet at HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory



Synopsis: El Nino is strengthening, with a greater than

90percent chance of a very strong event during the Northern

Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.



El Nino strengthened over the past month, with sea surface

temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0degC in the eastern

equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The July Nino index values were

+1.4degC in Nino-3.4, +1.7degC in Nino-3, and +2.9degC in

Nino-1+2 (Fig. 2). The equatorial subsurface temperature

index (average from 180deg-100degW) increased during July

(Fig. 3), reflecting a deeper-than-average thermocline

(Fig. 4). Subsurface temperature anomalies were significant,

reaching +10.0degC at depth. Low-level westerly wind anomalies

and upper-level easterly wind anomalies extended from the

western to east-central equatorial Pacific. Convection and

rainfall were enhanced from the central to eastern Pacific and

were suppressed over Indonesia (Fig. 5). The traditional and

equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were significantly

negative, with values near 2 standard deviations during

July. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system

reflected a strengthening El Nino.



The CPC Official ENSO outlook, which synthesizes multiple models

from North America and abroad, indicates El Nino will continue

to strengthen through the end of the year (Figs. 6-8). During

the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69percent chance of

a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El

Nino events dating back to 1950 (+2.5degC or more for a 3-month

RONI value). With an event of this magnitude, the chances of

experiencing impacts consistent with El Nino are larger, but

they are not guaranteed (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of

seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Nino is strengthening,

with a greater than 90percent chance of a very strong event

during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.



This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather

Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric

conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction

Center website (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert

Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available

here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for

10 September 2026. To receive an e-mail notification when the

monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send

an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.







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