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FXUS24 KWNC 081300

PMDENS

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

900 AM EDT Thu 08 Oct 2026



NOTE: figures mentioned in the discussion are available on

the internet at HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory



Synopsis: El Nino continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very

strong El Nino likely through January-March 2027 (remaining

greater than an 83percent chance).



El Nino strengthened further last month, with sea surface

temperature anomalies exceeding +4.0degC in portions of

the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most Nino indices

increased in the past month, reaching +2.1degC in Nino-3.4,

+3.0degC in Nino-3, and +3.9degC in Nino-1+2 (Fig. 2). The

equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from

180deg-100degW) was well above average (Fig. 3), reflecting

a deeper-than-average thermocline. Subsurface temperatures

remained in excess of +10.0degC at depth in the eastern

Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and

upper-level easterly wind anomalies stretched from the western

to the east-central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced convection

and rainfall persisted from the central to the eastern

Pacific, while anomalies remained suppressed over Indonesia

(Fig. 5). The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation

indices were significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled

ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Nino.



The CPC Official ENSO outlook, which synthesizes multiple models

from North America and abroad, indicates El Nino will continue

to strengthen through the end of the year (Figs. 6-8). Chances

remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength

of previous El Nino events dating back to 1950 (+2.5degC

or more for a 3-month RONI value): the chance is 54percent

for September-November, 83percent for October-December,

and 70percent for November-January. With an event of this

magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with

El Nino are larger, though not guaranteed (see CPC outlooks

for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Nino

continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Nino

likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an

83percent chance).



This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather

Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric

conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction

Center website (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert

Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available

here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for

12 November 2026. To receive an e-mail notification when the

monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send

an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.







$$