169 WTPA42 PHFO 240232 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number 47 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026 Lala remains a well organized tropical storm despite moving over cool waters. The system is maintaining a partial eyewall that wraps a little more than halfway around the center, along with numerous fragmented outer rainbands. There has been little change in the latest satellite intensity estimates, and a blend of the latest objective and subjective estimates supports holding the initial intensity steady at 55 kt. An ASCAT-C pass from around 21Z was helpful in adjusting the 34- and 50-kt wind radii. The storm is moving slowly northwestward at about 6 kt. An even slower northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as Lala is forecast to remain located just southwest of a strong subtropical ridge, not far from the ridge axis where the steering currents are weak. This motion should cause Lala to cross the International Date Line around the middle of the week. Although the models show the same general theme, there is a fair amount of cross-track spread beyond 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies closer to the left side of the guidance envelope, near the Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids. Lala is expected to weaken over the next several days as it moves over progressively cooler waters, but the weakening trend will likely be slow since it is expected to remain in generally low wind shear conditions. The GFS and ECMWF models show the storm losing organized deep convection around the time it nears the International Date Line in a few days. Based on that guidance, the transition to a post-tropical cyclone has been moved up to day 4. Otherwise, this intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 33.1N 174.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 33.5N 175.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 34.3N 175.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 34.8N 176.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 35.4N 177.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 36.0N 178.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 36.6N 179.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 38.2N 179.5E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0000Z 39.8N 177.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi