937 

FNUS21 KWNS 180625

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0124 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026



Valid 181200Z - 191200Z



...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME

EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR

SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH

PLAINS...



...Synopsis...

***Dangerous fire weather conditions expected across parts of the

southern High Plains***



...Southwest into the southern High Plains...

A pronounced mid-level trough will eject over the Plains, resulting

in surface cyclone deepening over southwest Kansas, which will

promote widespread, dangerously dry and windy conditions across

parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains today. A

dryline will sharpen across southwestern Kansas into far western

Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon, with a very dry boundary

layer mixing up to 500 mb in the post-dryline environment. Given

strong downward mixing, as well as surface gradient flow with the

deepening cyclone, widespread 20-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly

surface winds overlapping with 5-15 percent RH is expected. These

conditions are likely for several hours across much of New Mexico,

to southwestern Kansas and points in between, necessitating the

maintenance of Critical highlights.



Extremely Critical highlights remain in place where confidence is

highest in sustained surface winds exceeding 30 mph amid

single-digit RH, and where the ERCs of fuel-loaded grasses exceed

the 95th percentile. Guidance consensus suggests that this volatile

overlap of favorable meteorological conditions and fuels will occur

over extreme eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles

and southwestern Kansas, immediately behind the dryline. The

combination of the very strong surface winds/RH, critically dry

fuels, and exacerbation of potential holdover fires will all support

wildfire spread at a life-threateningly fast pace. The danger to the

fire spread may be compounded later in the evening and early

overnight hours, when the surface cold front sweeps into the region,

resulting in a dramatic shift of the surface winds from westerly to

northerly, pivoting any ongoing fire fronts accordingly.



...Sacramento Valley in California...

A mid-level north-northwesterly wind maximum will overspread

northern California during the afternoon hours, when a dry boundary

layer is poised to mix up to the 700-500 mb layer. Such conditions

will encourage enough downward mixing, in tandem with downslope

flow, to support Elevated wildfire-spread conditions in the

Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Sustained northerly surface winds

in the 15-20 mph range coinciding with 15-20 percent RH will overlap

with receptive fuels for at least a few hours, warranting fire

weather highlights.



..Squitieri.. 05/18/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$