116 FNUS21 KWNS 161636 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN L.A. COUNTY...VENTURA COUNTY...AND SOUTHEASTERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The forecast remains on track for an Elevated fire weather threat across portions of CA, and critical conditions for a localized region of southern CA. Wind gusts of 35-55 mph are being measured in the wind-prone areas of L.A./Ventura/Santa Barbara counties amid RH values of 15-20% this morning. As the offshore gradient relaxes throughout the day, winds will gradually ease; however, a 700 mb 30-40 kt easterly jet will remain over the region into Day 2/Saturday morning, potentially allowing some stronger gusts to reach the surface. Farther east, a cold front will continue to traverse the lower MS Valley/ArkLaTex today. Behind the front, northerly sustained winds of 15-20 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are depicted by 16z observations. RH values will decline to 25-40% this afternoon where receptive fuels exist, maintaining an Elevated fire weather threat. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/16/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper low will remain positioned just west of the northern Baja Peninsula within a broader upper-level ridge over the western U.S. In conjunction with a strong surface high pressure system (1044 mb per the 03 UTC WPC surface analysis) moving into the central Great Plains, this upper low will continue to support dry, offshore flow and elevated to critical fire weather conditions across portions of California today. To the east, a robust upper-level trough will pivot eastward across the eastern U.S., with an attendant surface low deepening as it progresses northeastward across the St. Lawrence River Valley and a strong cold front advancing across the East/Southeast. Strong post-frontal flow in the wake of this cold front will bring elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley and ArkLaTex today. ...Southern California... A closed mid/upper low will aid in the maintenance of deep-layer east-northeasterly flow across much of southern California, which will continue to support an offshore wind event and elevated to critical fire weather conditions today. A corridor of sustained east-northeasterly 20-30 mph surface winds with gusts up to 50-60 mph (occasionally higher in terrain-favored and exposed elevated areas) is forecast across western L.A, Ventura, and southeastern Santa Barbara counties, with a peak during the late morning/early afternoon hours before gradually diminishing beginning later this afternoon. With minimum RH values likely dropping to near 15% (locally lower), this will favor a critical fire weather threat. Elevated to locally critical conditions are also expected farther west towards the central CA coast where RH reductions to 15% and sustained easterly winds of 15-20 mph are expected. ...Sierra Nevada, Sacramento Valley into the North Bay area... Residual easterly/northeasterly downslope winds of 10-15 mph (locally up to 20 mph) are expected today across the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada. Poor overnight humidity recoveries are observed as of 0600 UTC, with RH values noted to range from 15-25% across portions of the western slopes. RH values should further decrease to near 10% today. Coupled with receptive fuels and the breezy east-northeast winds, this will help maintain an elevated fire weather threat across this region today. North-northeast winds of 10-15 mph and minimum RH values of 10-15% will also bring elevated fire weather concerns to portions of the Sacramento Valley, Napa Valley, and North Bay areas today. ...Lower Mississippi River Valley and ArkLaTex Region... A strongsurface high pressure system will build into the central Plains today in the wake of the passage of a substantial surface cold front advancing across the East/Southeast. The resultant surface pressure gradient between these two features will favor sustained northerly winds of 10-15 mph (with occasional gusts up to around 30-35 mph possible) across portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley and ArkLaTex within the dry, post-frontal air mass. With RH reductions as low as ~25% over receptive fuels (ERCs up to the 80-90th percentiles), elevated fire weather conditions are expected for at least a few hours this afternoon. While RH will improve into the overnight hours, gusty surface winds are expected to continue into Saturday morning. Only a minor southward expansion to the existing elevated area was made with this update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$