293 

AWUS01 KWNH 180614

FFGMPD

MOZ000-KSZ000-181016-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0181

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

213 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026



Areas affected...central/eastern KS into western MO



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 180612Z - 181016Z



Summary...Flash flooding is likely to focus in one or two

locations from central to eastern KS into western MO through 10Z.

Training will likely result in 1-2 in/hr rates (locally higher)

with additional totals over 4 inches possible through 10Z on an

isolated basis.



Discussion...06Z radar imagery showed that an axis of elevated

thunderstorms extended from near LYO, ENE into northwestern MO

near MCI, just north and west of an outflow boundary. Training of

thunderstorms in central KS has resulted in MRMS-derived rainfall

of 3 to 9 inches over the past 6 hours from southern Rush County

into northwestern Ottawa County, though some of that could be high

due to hail contamination. However, there was at least one

Wunderground PWS with 7.26" to the southwest of Lincoln ending

0555Z.



Current satellite trends in IR imagery showed the coldest cloud

tops were slowly shifting east, coinciding with an area of strong

upper level jet induced divergence and diffluence tied to a

strengthening jet max extending from the west-central KS/NE border

into the lower Northern Plains.



A strong southerly low level jet of 50 to 65+ kt was seen in VAD

wind plots at 850 mb from northern OK into southern KS, lifting

atop the outflow boundary, with deeper layer wind vectors

supporting SW to NE training at times. Steep mid-level lapse rates

of 8-9 C/km were observed in 00Z soundings at OKC, TOP and SGF,

supporting MUCAPE values between 3000 and 4000 J/kg. Veering of

the low level jet through 10Z is forecast, as the outflow boundary

likely continues to advance southeastward, supporting continued

elevated thunderstorms with areas of training.



While increased convective inhibition with southward extent may

limit how far south convection will reach, inhibition for

locations farther east is forecast to remain weak. Therefore,

while flash flooding is not expected to be widespread, areas of

training are likely to focus high rain rates and focused flash

flooding from central to eastern KS into far western MO through

10Z.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...



ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   40009416 39409365 38369394 37779489 37539666 

            37369932 38089966 38849841 39509698 39779589