694 

AWUS01 KWNH 191318

FFGMPD

MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-191830-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0189

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

917 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026



Areas affected...Ozarks



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 191317Z - 191830Z



Summary...Scattered instances of flash flooding likely, with

possible localized considerable impact, over the Ozarks rest of

the morning. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected to

continue with 3 to 4 inches possible in three hours.



Discussion...A cold front continues to push southeast toward the

ozarks with prefrontal organized activity still with two distinct

areas currently over northern AR and over eastern OK. The junction

of these two MCSs caused 2-5" rainfall near the OK/MO border early

this morning with rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr still occurring over

southwest MO and northern AR. An MCV is likely to develop in the

left bookend from the OK MCS that generally works its way east

along the MO/AR border rest of the morning. SWly low level flow is

parallel to the outflow from eastern OK which should allow for an

additional round of heavy rainfall. This area is quite dry with

high flash flood guidance, but the Ozarks are a known flash flood

prone area with the terrain and high runoff, so there are concerns

for considerable impacts from 2-4" in a few hours.



1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.8" PW with SWly flow of 20-25kt is

sufficient to support repeating heavy thunderstorms along over

much of the Ozarks rest of this morning. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs

appear to be under analyzing the left bookend/MCV development

risk. Those models place greater QPF focus over southeastern OK

where activity is currently progressive.



Jackson



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...



ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   36919319 36699203 36449141 35449183 35079313 

            35239454 35969486 36529458 36899422