764 

AWUS01 KWNH 191409

FFGMPD

ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-191930-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0190

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

1008 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026



Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas into

Arkansas



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 191407Z - 191930Z



Summary...Isolated flash flooding possible over southeast Oklahoma

into northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas through the early

afternoon. Slowing progression of organized thunderstorms should

allow hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with up to 4 inches

possible in three hours over this previously parched area.



Discussion...Prefrontal organized activity over southeast OK is

oriented parallel to the southwesterly low level flow. This has

caused a slowing to progression and longer duration of heavy rain

over east-central OK. Continued new development merging in with

this line will allow a flash flood threat to shift to northeast TX

through midday. MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg and PW of 1.6 inches will

maintain rapid development and heavy rainfall rates of 2 to

possibly 3 inches per hour. This area has been dry for the past

week, so flash flood guidance is quite high. Flash flooding should

be restricted to the areas with the highest rainfall and in

urbanized areas that get at least a few inches. Recent RRFS runs

have been heavier than the HRRR which seem reasonble as the HRRRs

have been underdoing current activity. Areas ahead of the cold

front will continue to be monitored given the unstable and moist

environment.



Jackson



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   35429542 35409467 35079390 34609344 33679353 

            32479558 32549776 33609832 34629744 35189636 

            






383 

FOUS62 KALR 191416

FFGSJU

COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...PUERTO RICO                               

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE                                                

SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...ATLANTA GA                            

1015 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026

                                                                        

INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE          

FLASH FLOODING IN FORECAST ZONES.  LOWER AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE              

FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.                           

                                                                        

.B ALR 20260519 Z DH12/DC202605191415 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF

:IDENTIFIERS ARE 2-LETTER STATE, Z FOR ZONE, 3-DIGIT ZONE NUMBER        

:                                                                       

:IDENT    1HR   3HR   6HR  ZONE NAME

:======= ====  ====  ====  ====================

PRZ001    1.0/  1.9/  2.8                     

PRZ002    1.0/  1.9/  2.8                     

PRZ003    1.0/  1.9/  2.8                     

PRZ004    1.0/  1.9/  2.8                     

PRZ005    1.5/  2.0/  2.5                     

PRZ006    1.5/  2.0/  2.5                     

PRZ007    1.5/  2.0/  2.5                     

PRZ008    1.5/  2.0/  2.5                     

PRZ009    1.5/  2.0/  2.5                     

PRZ010    1.5/  2.0/  2.5                     

PRZ011    1.5/  2.0/  2.5                     

PRZ012    1.5/  2.6/  3.7                     

PRZ013    1.5/  2.6/  3.7                     

VIZ001    2.0/  3.1/  4.3                     

VIZ002    2.1/  3.3/  4.6                     

.END

$$

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