620 

AWUS01 KWNH 191750

FFGMPD

TXZ000-192330-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0191

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

149 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026



Areas affected...Central Texas and Concho Valley



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 191748Z - 192330Z



Summary...Additional instances of isolated flash flooding possible

over northwest Texas/the Concho Valley into Central Texas through

the afternoon. Thunderstorms developing along/just behind a cold

front should continue to produce hourly rainfall of 1 to 2.5

inches with up to 4 inches possible in three hours over this

previously parched area.



Discussion...Frontal activity has rapidly redeveloped along/behind

a cold front near San Angelo. Earlier activity west of Abilene

became stationary as low level flow fed it, allowing 3-4 inch

maxima. The newer activity is more scattered in nature, but given

the abundant instability (MLCAPE of 3500 J/kg) and moisture

pooling along the front (1.4 to 1.6 inch PW from west to east in

the drawn threat area) should continue to rapidly develop and

could congeal into a more organized cluster in the lower shear

environment (20-25kt effective shear). 



The HRRR continues to struggle with convection today with

difficulty maintaining this central/NW Texas activity while the

RRFS has a better handle on reality and seems reasonable with

scattered output of 1.5 to 4 inches through 00Z across central and

western portions of the drawn threat area.



All of southern Plains have been dry for the past week which may

allow increased runoff depending on the local soil type. Flash

flood guidance is high, generally 2.5 inches per hour, so the

flash flood risk should remain isolated through the afternoon.

Activity should continue to shift south with the cold front, so

followup discussions should be south of this area.



Jackson



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...



LAT...LON   32899797 32599726 31739728 31009795 30739923 

            30600018 30800175 31470179 31830151 31910036 

            32279940 32629863