940 AWUS01 KWNH 192332 FFGMPD TXZ000-200530- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0193 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 731 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas affected...portions of west and central Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 192330Z - 200530Z Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms continue to produce high rain rates - locally exceeding 2 inches/hr at times. Flash flooding is likely on at least a localized basis. Discussion...In the last half hour, an east-west oriented band of cellular convection has intensified rapidly along an axis from near Big Lake, TX east to near Llano, with other scattered convection northeast of that axis (west of Waco) and also just north of the Big Bend area. These storms were focusing along a very slow-moving cold front in that vicinity. Furthermore, very strong mid-level lapse rates (exceeding 8C/km) and near 70F dewpoints were contributing to 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, further supporting strong updrafts. Weak steering flow was evident (only 20 knots or so at 500mb), enabling convection to exhibit slow and at times erratic storm motions. Moisture/instability profiles were supporting local 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates that were approaching FFG. Overall increasing convective trends are likely to continue amid a subtle increase in low-level flow into the aforementioned front through the evening hours. Slow/erratic storm motions are likely to continue with this activity, though upscale growth into a convective complex appears probable as cold pools mature and merge. Models hint at additional convection emanating from northern Mexican higher terrain that may also organize and merge with pre-existing convection across the discussion area and pose a flash flood risk. Areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates are likely to continue on at least a localized basis, posing a flash flood threat especially in sensitive locales. 5 inch totals are also possible. This threat is likely to continue through 05Z/midnight central time, and a gradual eastward and/or southeastward shift in flash flood potential should materialize, though this evolution is likely highly dependent on how quickly storms can grow upscale during the evening. Locally significant impacts are possible in sensitive/flood-prone areas. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 32169913 32029761 31589676 31199632 30409619 29599647 28919807 28499958 28340015 29080082 29660173 29460284 29830317 30790276 31910120  072 AWUS01 KWNH 192355 FFGMPD OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-200353- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0194 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 754 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas affected...southern Indiana, southwestern Ohio, northern Kentucky Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 192353Z - 200353Z Summary...Scattered thunderstorms were exhibiting localized training, with rates increasing to about 1 inch/hr on a localized basis. Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible. Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms were migrating eastward at a decent pace across the discussion area this afternoon (~30 knots). Storms in Ohio were organized into forward-propagating bands, though upstream areas over Indiana into southwestern Ohio were exhibiting slightly more favorable orientation for local training. The convective orientation was favoring areas 1 inch/hr rain rates on an isolated/spotty basis across the region, which was approaching rather low FFG thresholds across the region due to wet soils from prior rainfall the past few days. Current trends suggest that an isolated flash flood risk will exist for at least another couple hours. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE values and 1.9 inch PW values should sustain thunderstorms with efficient rainfall rates at times through sunset. Thereafter, the combination of surface cooling, convective overturning, and an approaching front from the west should lead in a downtick in convective coverage and attendant flash flood potential. Peak risk will exist from now through around 03Z/11p eastern or so. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH... ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 40188453 40048307 39338280 38688362 38318491 38128631 38118760 38638758 39088725 39628635