624 

AWUS01 KWNH 080024

FFGMPD

MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080515-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0642

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

823 PM EDT Tue Jul 07 2026



Areas affected...southeastern ND, northeastern SD into MN



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 080021Z - 080515Z



SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding are expected to develop over

portions of the eastern Dakotas into western/central MN through

the early overnight hours. West to east training should support

hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) with rainfall

totals of at least 2 to 4 inches through 05Z.



DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery at 00Z showed elevated

thunderstorms over northern SD into southeastern ND, aligned in SW

to NE axes with movement off toward the east. The cells were

located north of a quasi-stationary front that extended from

central MN into southwestern SD within a zone of 500-2000 J/kg

MUCAPE and PWs between 1.6 and 1.9 inches via 00Z SPC mesoanalysis

data.



As a low level jet increases over eastern NE and eastern SD into

the 25-35 kt range (via recent RAP foreasts), overrunning of the

surface front will maintain convective development to the north of

the boundary with individual cells moving off toward the east. A

remnant outflow boundary was also located from east-central SD

into southern MN, which should also serve as a focus for

overrunning ascent. Increasing coverage of thunderstorms is

expected to allow for congealing of cells with clusters moving

toward the east to southeast over time. Cells are likely to be

rooted largely in the 850-700 mb layer with thunderstorms aligning

with elevated convergence axes allowing for training. Hourly

rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) is expected.



As an upper level shortwave advances eastward from northeastern

MT, strengthening of a corresponding upper level jet is expected

to provide right-entrance region divergence aloft within an

already diffluent flow regime. The combination of strengthening

forcing for ascent within the favorable thermodynamic profiles (as

seen in RAP forecast soundings) should support MCS development

with areas of flash flooding over the next few hours given 3-hr

FFG values of less than 2.5 inches in many locations. 2 to 4

inches of rain is expected in some areas through 05Z, though

isolated higher totals cannot be ruled out.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DLH...FGF...MPX...



ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...



LAT...LON   46909676 46889552 46629430 46469385 46189357 

            45789357 45409381 45039446 44829612 44719787 

            44770017 45150103 45880090 46639959 46849801