058 

AWUS01 KWNH 090602

FFGMPD

MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-091200-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0649

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

200 AM EDT Thu Jul 09 2026



Areas affected...Southeast NE...North-Central to Northeast

KS...West-Central to Northwest MO



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 090600Z - 091200Z



SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms will likely

result in some areas of flash flooding going through the early

morning hours.



DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows cooling

convective tops along the NE/KS border in association with the

general upscale growth of an MCS. Heavy showers and thunderstorms

are becoming a bit better aligned with the deeper layer mean flow

as well which is suggestive of an increasing cell-training threat.



All of this activity is expanding in coverage as a southerly

low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts interacts with a frontal zone

draped across the region and a very favorable thermodynamic

environment. MLCAPE values are on the order of 1500 to 2000 J/kg,

and with PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches. The latest RAP analysis shows

the nose of a well-defined moisture transport axis extending south

to north up across north-central to northeast KS, and this has

been as a key player with the uptick in convective trends over the

last hour.



The evening hires CAMs led by a consensus of the 00Z HREF/REFS

guidance suggests an organized axis of convection dropping

gradually down to the southeast going through the early morning

hours. This should allow for the current activity to more broadly

impact areas of northeast KS and west-central to northwest MO.

Some cell-training is strongly suggested in the guidance, and the

HREF/REFS suite indicates an axis of 30 to 50 percent

probabilities of seeing the 3-hour FFG exceeded. Much of this is

over in northeast KS, with as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain

supported at locally by 12Z (7AM CDT). Rainfall rates of 1.5 to

2.5 inches/hour will favor these heavier totals in conjunction

with the cell-training concerns.



Given the high rainfall rates and storm total potential over the

next several hours, some areas of flash flooding are generally

likely. This may include some urban flash flooding impacts to the

Topeka and Kansas City metropolitan areas.



Orrison



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...



ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   40749687 40639571 40349464 40019400 39409360 

            38699403 38399507 38539631 39009747 39529800 

            40109811 40639764