080 

AWUS01 KWNH 090701

FFGMPD

PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-091300-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0650

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

300 AM EDT Thu Jul 09 2026



Areas affected...Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 090700Z - 091300Z



SUMMARY...Localized pockets of flash flooding will be possible

early this morning from slow-moving and efficient showers and

thunderstorms.



DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery

shows a couple of well-defined vort centers situated across

southwest and northern KY that are embedded within a broader

mid-level trough over the OH Valley. This energy is gradually

drifting off to the east-northeast, and is expected to foster some

scattered shower and thunderstorm development going into the early

morning hours.



A quasi-stationary frontal zone remains draped across the region

and there is a modest pool of instability noted in close proximity

to this front with MUCAPE values locally over 1000 J/kg. The

approaching vort energy will be interacting with this front and

the available moisture and instability to help facilitate a

gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm activity this morning.

However, the overall coverage should generally tend to be

scattered.



The main concern will be for pockets of slow-moving convection

that are relatively warm-topped, but also embedded within an

already moist airmass that is pooled across large areas of the OH

Valley and the central Appalachians. Recent OSPO ALPW data shows

rather strong concentrations of moisture in the mid and

upper-levels of the vertical column that will support greater

efficiency for high rainfall rates with some of the convection.



Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour and some localized 2 to 3+

inch totals cannot be ruled out early this morning, and especially

across areas of southern OH through far southwest PA and northern

WV. FFGs are relatively low across some of these areas, and

therefore there may be some localized pockets of flash flooding

from these areas of showers and thunderstorms that materialize.



Orrison



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...RLX...



ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...



LAT...LON   40507940 40187871 39497860 38777920 38388034 

            38248247 38308405 38618509 39358491 39748335 

            40018225 40448079