198 

AWUS01 KWNH 092320

FFGMPD

TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-100430-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0654

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

719 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2026



Areas affected...Central Missouri to southern Indiana and the

Mid-South



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 092318Z - 100430Z



Summary...Thunderstorms with max rainfall rates of 2"/hr will

continue to develop along an axis from central to southeast

Missouri and over southern Illnois and Indiana this evening.

Scattered flash flooding is likely with localized considerable

impacts.



Discussion...An MCV over southern Illinois and trough over central

to southeast Missouri are ahead/south of a mid-level wave over

western Illinois. Scattered thunderstorms have developed with both

of these features with expanding coverage expected through this

evening. An axis of 2.1" PW extends south from the MCV to

southeast Missouri and back toward western Missouri. An

instability gradient is across this area with SBCAPE increasing

from around 1500 J/kg along an east-west axis south of St. Louis 

to around 4000 J/kg along the MO/AR border.



Despite the initial activity developing over southeast MO,

guidance has had rapid development around this time back through

central MO. There is a surface trough axis over this area, so the

discussion area is expanded northwest of the ongoing activity to

central MO. Rainfall rates of 2"/hr can be expected in the

heaviest activity. Deep layer westerly flow should keep this

activity shifting east though low level southwesterly flow may

allow some upwind propagation, prolonged heavy rainfall, and max

totals topping 4".



Flash flood guidance is generally around 2"/hr, though a bit

higher in southeast MO, around 2.5"/hr where rainfall has been a

bit below normal over the past week.



Jackson



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...

PAH...SGF...



ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...



LAT...LON   39588807 39298620 38078542 36288761 35658858 

            35438949 35689126 36419239 37299327 38249344 

            38559305 38449178 38159034 39168871