962 AWUS01 KWNH 150316 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-150914- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1496 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1115 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Areas affected...Central OK...West TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 150314Z - 150914Z Summary...Training thunderstorms containing peak hourly rainfall rates exceeding 2 in/hr will continue tonight. Widely scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding are expected. Discussion...Radar mosaic this evening depicts an MCS exhibiting a line echo wave pattern (LEWP), which is moving eastward across portions of central OK and northern TX. Upwind of the LEWP, training thunderstorms are expanding in coverage near a stationary segment of the cold pool over west-central TX. As highlighted in MPD 1495, this complex is embedded in a favorable environment for efficient heavy rainfall production, with low level contributions from the western Gulf and mid-level contributions from Hurricane Simon in the eastern Pacific. Recent mesoanalysis data suggests PWs near the complex range from 1.7-2.0", with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Over the next 6 hours, the main axis of training will focus along the cold pool as the low-level jet strengthens and Corfidi vectors align favorably with the low level boundary. Strong thermodynamic advection will result in PWs exceeding 2" and MUCAPE values in the 2000 J/kg range as the low-level jet strengthens, supporting hourly rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr at times in the most intense cells. Through 9z, CAM guidance unanimously highlights the potential for an additional 2-4" in the highlighted area. Owing to the previous 24 hours of heavy rainfall (upwards of 4-10" west of the OKC metro), this will maintain the threat of widely scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding. Flash flooding is considered likely, and considerable to significant flash flooding impacts remain possible over urban zones or areas inundated from yesterday's rainfall. Asherman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...FWD...ICT...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT... TSA... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 37139589 35859551 33349841 31030072 29520265 29810375 31290348 33610185 35190014 36519831