436 

AWUS01 KWNH 151642

FFGMPD

VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-152230-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1499

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

1241 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026



Areas affected...eastern KY into WV



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 151640Z - 152230Z



Summary...Isolated flash flooding may occur across eastern KY into

WV through late afternoon from training and hourly rainfall of 1-2

inches. Areal coverage of any higher rain rates/impacts is

expected to remain limited however.



Discussion...A small region of showers was observed on local radar

imagery over eastern KY at 1615Z, tracking toward the east at

about 20 kt. There has been a history of embedded training of

heavy rain within the area of showers containing MRMS-derived

hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches over the eastern third of KY since

12Z. According to 16Z data from the SPC mesoanalysis, eastern KY

contained ~2 inches of precipitable water and MLCAPE of 100-500

J/kg. A quasi-stationary front extended west to east from

north-central KY into southern WV and a weak rain-cooled outflow

boundary was becoming more apparent just south of the recent

rainfall in KY.



There will continue to be an isolated threat for 1-2 inch hourly

rainfall with the area of showers as it tracks into

central/southern WV over the next 1 to 2 hours, but potential for

additional shower/thunderstorm development will occur later this

afternoon into the early evening back to the west. RAP forecast

guidance shows MLCAPE increasing up to 500 J/kg for WV and near

1000 J/kg into eastern KY. In addition, 925-850 mb winds of 15-25

kt are forecast over KY into WV with an overrunning component of

the outflow and frontal boundary which may support a few widely

scattered showers and thunderstorms after 19Z. Mean westerly

steering flow could promote training and hourly rainfall of 1-2

inches within the moist environment. Isolated flash flooding may

result across the sensitive terrain of the Cumberland Plateau into

the central Appalachians.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...



ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...



LAT...LON   39328025 39047940 38447928 37907960 37438029 

            37018207 36778405 37058460 37368468 37728464 

            38098447 38308409 38488296 38758227 39198118