387 

FXHW01 KWNH 220910

PMDHI 



Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

510 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026



Valid 00Z Sun 23 Aug 2026 - 00Z Sun 30 Aug 2026



Overall, not much change from the previous forecast as Tropical 

Storm Moke will continue its track west-northwest across the 

central Pacific before passing south of the islands Sunday and 

Monday. While there remains some latitudinal spread, models have 

remained consistent -- maintaining a track well south of the 

islands. However, despite the storm's position well to the south,

a strong pressure gradient between Moke and high pressure 

anchored to the north will support strong easterly winds spreading

west across the islands on Sunday. In addition to the winds, a 

deep plume of moisture positioned north of Moke will fuel heavy 

rainfall, especially over the eastern islands, with several inches

likely across portions of the Big Island. With these rains coming

quickly on the heels of Lala, life-threatening flooding and 

mudslides are a significant concern. Even as the system continues 

west and weakens, guidance shows an elongated stretch of deeper 

moisture remaining across the islands, potentially carrying the 

threat for heavy rainfall well into early next week.



Then a return to more typical easterly trades is expected, with 

notably drier air spreading across the islands by midweek.



Pereira



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