680 

FXUS01 KWBC 191939

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

336 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026



Valid 00Z Wed May 20 2026 - 00Z Fri May 22 2026



...Severe weather and flash flooding threats will exist across

portions of the Southern Plains and Ohio Valley later today

through tonight, and become potentially more focused over the

Texas Hill Country on Wednesday...



...An early-season heatwave will challenge high temperature

records across the Eastern U.S. through Wednesday...



...Below normal temperatures to overspread the Southern Plains,

Midwest and gradually the Northeast U.S. over the next couple of

days...



As an ejecting upper-level trough crosses the Upper Midwest going

through this evening, a slow-moving cold front with multiple waves

of low pressure along it will continue to gradually settle south

and east across the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley

region. However, the northern portion of this cold front will be

more progressive as it crosses the Great Lakes region and Ohio

Valley. This will bring regional threats of severe weather and

flash flooding.



The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a Slight Risk for severe

weather (level 2 of 5) across portions of central Texas and the

Ohio Valley through western New York. Damaging winds and large

hail will be the main hazards associated with this as heavy

showers and thunderstorms develop. However, there will be a

corresponding threat for flash flooding across some of these same

areas, and the Weather Prediction Center has indicated a Slight

Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall. The areas where

rainfall will generally be heaviest and more concentrated will be

down across areas of central Texas (including portions of the Hill

Country) and up into the Arklatex region going through tonight. By

Wednesday into Thursday, this cold front will have settled well to

the south and become stalled across the far southern Plains

through portions of the Mid-South. There will continue to be areas

of heavy showers and thunderstorms, and a threat for severe

weather and potential flash flooding will continue, especially

near the Texas Hill Country on Wednesday. Farther to the north and

east, the front will clear the Northeast and eventually stall

across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic region by Thursday.



A rather cool area of high pressure will advance from the Midwest

and through the Great Lakes and Northeast over the next couple of

days behind this front. This will gradually help break an ongoing

heatwave along the Eastern Seaboard as a Bermuda High offshore of

the East Coast gradually weakens. Very hot temperatures for May

though will continue at least through Wednesday along the I-95

corridor with high temperatures reaching the mid-90s for several

major metropolitan areas including the Mid-Atlantic and New

England. This will likely break a number of high temperatures

records. However, behind the cold front, a much colder airmass

will send high temperatures below normal by Thursday and this will

likely persist through the end of the week with the aid of clouds

and rainfall. Rainfall overspreading the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic

and areas of New England should largely be beneficial as many of

these areas are dealing with an ongoing drought.



Elsewhere, a new upper-level trough and associated cold front

should begin to drop down across the northern Rockies and northern

High Plains for the latter part of the week which will bring a

renewed threat for showers and thunderstorms and generally below

normal temperatures. Warmer temperatures and dry conditions are

generally expected along the West Coast, but a few thunderstorms

will be possible over the higher terrain.

 

Orrison



Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php









$$