545 WTPN31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 029// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 134.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 134.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 17.3N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.2N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 19.4N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 20.9N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 22.7N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 24.7N 123.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 29.0N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 32.5N 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 133.6E. 08JUL26. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 674 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS 923 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.// NNNN  200 WDPN31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 029// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.9N 134.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 135 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 674 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPANDING AND CLEARING EYE THAT HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH A BETTER DEFINED EYEWALL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS WARMING TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EYE. EARLIER, ANIMATED HIGH-RESOLUTION HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MESOVORTICES ORBITING ABOUT THE INNER EYEWALL, GENERATING A WAVENUMBER-2 ASYMMETRY. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE FEATURE REMAINS EXPANSIVE, WITH IMPROVED SYMMETRY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 072342 METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN IMPRESSIVE GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD IN EXCESS OF 500 NM DIAMETER AND FURTHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CENTER OF THE EYE IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES, SUPPORTED BY THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS FAVORABLE WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ARE BEING OFFSET BY THE PERSISTENT 20-25 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A SEPARATE STR CENTERED OVER KYUSHU. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS RCTP: T7.0 - 140 KTS KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS CIMSS ADT: 134 KTS AT 080000Z CIMSS AIDT: 130 KTS AT 080000Z CIMSS D-MINT: 132 KTS AT 072135Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 135 KTS AT 080000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 09W (BAVI) CONTINUED ON A PRIMARILY WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A TRACK SPEED OF 12 KTS. THE STR NOW CENTERED OVER KYUSHU THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIGRATING EASTWARD AND MERGE WITH THE STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. UNDER THIS STEERING REGIME, STY 09W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM JUST NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN AROUND 110600Z BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA. 09W IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN AN EXPANSIVE (AROUND 500 NM DIAMETER) GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND VERY GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE ONLY ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR RESTRAINING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE 20-25 KTS OF VWS. AFTER TAU 24, A MORE MODERATE 10-15 KTS OF VWS PERSISTS AND AIDS IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE GRADUAL LOWERING OF SSTS AND LIKELY ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES (ERC). MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEGINNING AROUND TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE ISLAND OF TAIWAN AND MAKES ITS EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TURN, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 80 NM AT TAU 72 AS 09W BRUSHES PAST TAIWAN. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 240 NM AT TAU 120 WHEN 09W WILL BE WELL INLAND. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED BY LAND INTERACTION. THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DECAY SHIPS WHICH SUGGESTS A MUCH FASTER WEAKENING TREND. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE LIES WITHIN A 15 KT ENVELOPE AND THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN