063 WTPN31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 033// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 033 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 129.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 129.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 19.6N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 21.1N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 23.1N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 25.2N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 27.3N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 29.3N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 32.6N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 35.5N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 129.6E. 09JUL26. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090000Z IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. // NNNN 0001112600 00001  713 WDPN31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 033// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.3N 129.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 506 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE CONTINUATION OF A WEAKENING TREND AS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) CAUSES DEGRADATION OF THE INNER CORE. THE EYE HAS BEGUN TO FILL WITH CLOUD AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES HAVE BECOME MORE RAGGED. A DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE IS PRESENT WITH AN EARLIER 082114Z RCM-1 SAR PASS SHOWING WIND MAXIMA RINGS OF 20 NM AND 55 NM RADII, RESPECTIVELY. THE OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTED ABOUT 15 NM RELATIVE TO THE SAR PASS FROM 12 HOURS PRIOR, AND THE OUTER WIND MAXIMUM IS NOW THE STRONGER OF THE TWO, INDICATING THAT THE ERC IS PROGRESSING. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO PERIODICALLY EXACERBATE EROSION OF INNER CORE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SAR DATA. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) REMAINS A GARGANTUAN TYPHOON, WITH A WIND FIELD SIZE RANKING IN THE TOP 3 PERCENT OF ALL WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS OF THE PAST DECADE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMBINED INFLUENCE OF STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SOUTH OF JAPAN AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 082330Z CIMSS AIDT: 92 KTS AT 082330Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 110 KTS AT 082350Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) IS TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SOUTH OF JAPAN. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TAKING BAVI CLOSE TO ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS, AND THEN INTO EASTERN CHINA AFTER 60 HOURS. WHILE INLAND OVER CHINA, A TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN POTENTIALLY NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, THERE IS SOME SHORT-TERM UNCERTAINTY WHILE THE ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) PROCEEDS, CREATING A TUMULTUOUS INNER CORE STRUCTURE AS THE STORM'S KINETIC ENERGY PROFILE MORPHS. BAVI'S MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE NEAR-TERM TO AROUND 100 KT ON APPROACH TO ISHIGAKIJIMA. PRESUMING THE ERC COMPLETES, A RECOVERY OF MAXIMUM WINDS OFTEN FOLLOWS, BUT WITH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL STEADILY DURING THIS PERIOD, SIGNIFICANT REINTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SOME SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, BOTH UP AND DOWN, MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE ERC PROCESS. REGARDLESS OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE EYEWALL, THE STORM'S MASSIVE GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO SPAN FROM SOUTHERN TAIWAN TO OKINAWA AS BAVI ENTERS THE EAST CHINA SEA. RAPID WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING LANDFALL IN CHINA AFTER TAU 60, THOUGH ELEVATED WINDS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE CHINESE COASTLINE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE REMNANTS. MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT SPLIT, WITH PHYSICS-BASED MODELS CLOSER TO TAIWAN AND AI-BASED MODELS CLOSER TO ISHIGAKIJIMA. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE REMAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE PHYSICS-BASED AND AI-BASED GUIDANCE PACKAGES, AND HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT (NORTHEAST) RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN CHINA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN