521 WTPN31 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 034// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 034 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 129.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 129.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 20.1N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.9N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 23.9N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 26.0N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 28.1N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 30.2N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 33.2N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 36.4N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 128.6E. 09JUL26. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 473 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. // NNNN  617 WDPN31 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 034// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.7N 129.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 473 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI) TRANSITING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE EYE FEATURE HAS FULLY FILLED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, WHILE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS ONGOING AND VERIFIED BY A 090452Z GW1 AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INNER EYEWALL IS NEARLY FULLY ERODED, WHILE THE OUTER WRAPPING IS STILL DEVELOPING. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) IS NOW ANALYZED AT 55 NM AND CONFIRMED BY AN EARLIER (082114Z) RCM-1 SAR PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MOSTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, ROBUST OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AT 29-30 C, OFFSET ONLY BY A MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS LAID WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND TRACKING OF THE NOW FILLED EYE CENTER. CONCURRENTLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THIS VALUE RELIES ON A CONSENSUS OF AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW, NOTING THAT OBJECTIVE CIMSS AUTOMATED ALGORITHMS DEPICT SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 118 KTS AT 090600Z CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 090600Z CIMSS AIDT: 96 KTS AT 090600Z CIMSS D-MINT: 100 KTS AT 090600Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 98 KTS AT 090600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL DRIVEN BY AN ELONGATED, BUT BUILDING AND CONSOLIDATING RIDGING CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR ISHIGAKIJIMA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE MARITIME REGION BEFORE EXECUTING LANDFALL ONSHORE EASTERN CHINA POST TAU 48. ONCE SITUATED INLAND OVER THE ASIAN CONTINENT, THE CYCLONIC CORE IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT NORTHWARD AND SUBSEQUENTLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE CIRCULATION INFLUENCE INTEGRATES WITH THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT TERM, PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING ERC. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO ABATE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AROUND TAU 12. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE REMAINING TIME OF THE ERC, FOLLOWED BY MINOR INTENSIFICATION OR STABILIZATION OF THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OVER THE FOLLOWING 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO START PICKING UP AGAIN, WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM A FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AT THE SAME TIME, FAVORABLE HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO FALL SHARPLY ALONG THE PATH OF TY BAVI, RESULTING IN THE BEGINNING OF A TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE AROUND 36. AN EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WIND RADII FIELD IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS AN AREA STRETCHING FROM TAIWAN TO OKINAWA. EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER THE CHINESE LANDMASS POST TAU 48 WILL INITIATE A SHARPER WEAKENING TREND AND ULTIMATELY COMPLETE DISSIPATION. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL, PARTICULARLY UNTIL LANDFALL WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 65 NM EXCLUDING THE MAIN OUTLIER - NAVGEM. MAJORITY OF THE PHYSICS BASED MODELS TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING LANDFALL, WHILE NAVGEM PREDICTS A WESTWARD TRACK. OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, OFFSETTING FOR THE PRIMARY OUTLIER. OF NOTE, THE EXPERIMENTAL AI-BASED MODELS CONSENSUS PREDICTS AN EVEN SHARPER RECURVATURE, WITH TRACK OVER ISHIGAKIJIMA, FOLLOWED BY A LANDFALL 85 NM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PHYSICS-BASED CONSENSUS. INTENSITY PREDICTION IS LAID ON THE HIGHER END OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, AS ALL MODELS PREDICT INITIALLY STEADY AND SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY RAPID DECAY AFTERWARDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN