309 WTPN31 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 035// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 035 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 128.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 128.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 20.8N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 22.7N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 24.7N 123.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 26.7N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 28.8N 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 30.7N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 33.6N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 128.5E. 09JUL26. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS 952 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. // NNNN  931 WDPN31 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 035// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.2N 128.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 441 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI) WITH AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, AS THE SYSTEM IS CONFRONTED BY HOSTILE DEEP-LAYER NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25 KTS, WHICH HAS TILTED AND DISRUPTED THE VERTICAL AXIS OF THE STORM. ADDITIONALLY, THE VORTEX HAS EXPERIENCED STRUCTURAL VERTICAL DECOUPLING AND STEERING LAYER COMPRESSION. THIS HAS SEVERED TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) FROM THE RAPID, DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW, LEAVING THE LLCC GOVERNED BY SHALLOWER, SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING MECHANISM, MANIFESTED BY A DECELERATION IN TRANSLATIONAL VELOCITY FROM 10 KTS TO 5 KTS. THIS REDUCED TRANSLATION SPEED IS CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED SELF-INDUCED UPWELLING, DRIVING SEA SURFACE COOLING ALONG THE TRACK AND LIMITING ANY NEAR-TERM THERMODYNAMIC INTENSITY RECOVERY. FURTHERMORE, THE HOSTILE 25 KTS VWS REGIME HAS LIKELY ARRESTED THE COMPLETION OF THE ONGOING ERC BY INDUCING SEVERE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY AND PREVENTING THE OUTER WRAPPING EYEWALL FROM CONSOLIDATING OR CLOSING SYMMETRICALLY, AS REVEALED BY A 090900Z F17 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING A NEARLY FULLY ERODED INNER EYEWALL AND AN INCOMPLETE WRAPPING OF THE SECONDARY EYEWALL. WHILE VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND ELEVATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C ARE PRESENT, THE SYSTEM IS UNABLE TO EXPLOIT THIS DUE TO STRUCTURAL CORRUPTION. BASED ON THE OBSCURED, CLOUD-FILLED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TRACING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THE INITIAL SYNOPTIC POSITION IS LAID WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSED AT 100 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO ALIGN WITH THE DEGRADED CORE STRUCTURE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK TRENDS AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 92 KTS AT 091200Z CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 091200Z CIMSS AIDT: 85 KTS AT 091200Z CIMSS D-MINT: 99 KTS AT 090859Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 86 KTS AT 091200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: OVERALL STEERING DYNAMICS FOR TY 09W REMAIN GOVERNED BY AN ELONGATING AND CONSOLIDATING NORTHEASTERN STR, WHICH WILL SUSTAIN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRANSLATIONAL VECTOR THROUGH LANDFALL. ALONG THIS TRAJECTORY, TY 09W IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY OF ISHIGAKIJIMA JUST PRIOR TO TAU 36. SUBSEQUENT TO THIS MARITIME PASSAGE AND SOON AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL EXECUTE LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN CHINESE SEABOARD. NOTWITHSTANDING CENTRAL CORE KINEMATICS, AN EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WIND RADII FIELD WILL ENCOMPASS A MASSIVE GEOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINT STRETCHING FROM TAIWAN THROUGH THE RYUKYU ARC TO OKINAWA. THERMODYNAMICALLY, INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER THE INITIAL 36 HOURS DUE TO INHERENT PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTIES GOVERNING THE ONGOING ERC AND FLUCTUATIONS IN VWS. A TRANSIENT RELAXATION IN VWS NEAR TAU 12 PRESENTS A WINDOW WERE DEGRADATION INCURRED DURING THE ERC MAY STABILIZE, ALLOWING FOR MINOR INTENSIFICATION OR SUSTAINMENT OF MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SPEEDS FOR AN ENSUING 12-HOUR PERIOD. ADVANCING BEYOND TAU 24, HOWEVER, A RENEWED ESCALATION IN VWS COUPLED WITH CYCLONE DISPLACEMENT AWAY FROM THE HIGHLY EFFICIENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL ARREST DEVELOPMENT. CONCURRENTLY, TY BAVI WILL TRANSIT OUT OF ROBUST OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REGIME ALONG ITS PATH, BEGINNING A TERMINAL DECAY PHASE NEAR TAU 36. TERRESTRIAL FRICTION INDUCED BY THE POST-TAU 48 LANDFALL WILL CATALYZE A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. ONCE SITUATED INLAND OVER THE ASIAN CONTINENT, LAND INTERACTION AND ENGAGEMENT WITH DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINICITY WILL FORCE THE REMNANT VORTEX TO DEFLECT NORTHWARD AND SUBSEQUENTLY NORTHEASTWARD, WHILE ULTIMATELY COMPLETING DISSIPATION. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION TRACK GUIDANCE EXHIBITS ROBUST COHESION THROUGH THE PRE-LANDFALL PHASE, HIGHLIGHTED BY A TIGHT CROSS-TRACK ENVELOPE SPREAD OF A MERE 45 NM WHEN OMITTING THE LONE OUTLIER, NAVGEM. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF PHYSICS-BASED DYNAMICAL SUITES DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DEFLECTION POST-LANDFALL, NAVGEM CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. OF SIGNIFICANT DIAGNOSTIC INTEREST, THE EXPERIMENTAL AI ENSEMBLE ADVOCATES FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERN TRACK, BRINGING THE LLCC EAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA AND PROJECTING AN ONSHORE LANDING ADDITIONAL 25 NM NORTHEAST OF THE PHYSICS-BASED CONSENSUS MEAN. WEIGHING THESE DIVERGENT SPATIAL SOLUTIONS, THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK PROGNOSIS IS POSITIONED MARGINALLY TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN TO COUNTERBALANCE THE NAVGEM WESTWARD BIAS. REGARDING INTENSITY PROFILES, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY AGREES UPON AN INITIALLY SLUGGISH DECAY OR STEADY-STATE MAINTENANCE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS, SUCCEEDED BY RAPID OVERLAND DISINTEGRATION. DETERMINISTIC GFS IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION (UP BY 5-10 KTS) BEFORE TAU 36. PREVIOUSLY MOST AGGRESSIVE HAFS NOW INDICATES A MORE RAPID DECAY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A STABILIZATION OVER THE FOLLOWING 12 HOURS, ENDING WITH RAPID TERMINAL DECAY AFTERWARD. CONSEQUENTLY, THE JTWC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ISSUED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND IS PLACE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN