503 WTPN31 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 22.3N 140.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 140.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 22.9N 138.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 23.3N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 140.2E. 15OCT26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  229 WDPN31 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.3N 140.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 155 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W AS A FULLY EXPOSED, DIMINUATIVE SPINNER COMPLETELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION AND OVERWHELMED BY DRY AIR. THE 142109Z HSCAT WINDSPEED DATA REVEALS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 20 KTS, CAPTURED AS THE LIMITED CONVECTION COLLAPSED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), POOR OUTFLOW, AND DRY SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT, NEGLIGABLY OFFSET BY WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND THE CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, SUPPLEMENTED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HSCAT WINDSPEED DATA. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 142340Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 142340Z CIMSS D-MINT: 23 KTS AT 142209Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 26 KTS AT 142340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WHILE IT REMAINS A SHALLOW SYSTEM UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE, WITH VWS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH TAU 24, CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE DRY AIR WILL ULTIMATELY CAUSE 28W TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 UNTIL DISSIPATION. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH PRIOR TO TAU 24, AND THEREFORE DISSIPATION EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH SEVERAL MODELS DROP THE CIRCULATION PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED AMONG THE MAIN GROUPING OF MEMBERS -- INCLUDING GFS, GEFS, AND THE EXPERIMENTAL AI MODELS -- WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH// NNNN  189 WTPN32 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 10.7N 159.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 159.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 11.2N 157.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 11.7N 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 12.1N 151.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 12.7N 149.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 13.3N 146.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 13.9N 144.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.2N 139.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.1N 134.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 158.9E. 15OCT26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 883 NM EAST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN  406 WDPN32 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 10.7N 159.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 883 NM EAST OF NAVSTA GUAM MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W AS A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) STRUGGLING TO CONTEND WITH THE ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND THE DRY AIR DIRECTLY TO ITS EAST. THE THIN PLUME OF CENTRAL CONVECTION IS CONTINUOUSLY SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. THE 142320Z ASCAT DATA REVEALS A COMPACT LLCC WITH ELEVATED WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY THE REGION OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND THE SLOW VORTEX CONSOLIDATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT, SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND THE CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS CIMSS ADT: 28 KTS AT 150110Z CIMSS AIDT: 29 KTS AT 150110Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD OTHER FACTORS: SMALL PATCH OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 29W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STEADILY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 WHILE IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE STR CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTH. 29W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A VERY CONSISTENT FORWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 120, SUSTAINING A TRACK SPEED OF 12-13 KTS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 29W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND ORGANIZE. FOLLOWING TAU 24, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE, WITH THE DRY AIR BEGINNING TO MOISTEN. IN RESPONSE TO THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS, 29W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48. BY ABOUT TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HIGHLY FAVORABLE, WITH THE DRY AIR ELIMINATED AND THE SYSTEM NOW STRONG ENOUGH TO EASILY RESIST THE PERSISTENT APPROXIMATE 15 KTS OF VWS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DURATION. ADDITIONALLY, THE EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AROUND TAU 36 AND REMAIN ROBUST THROUGH TAU 120, FURTHER AIDING IN INTENSIFICATION. THEREFORE, 29W IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) BETWEEN TAU 48-96. JUST AFTER TAU 72, 29W IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUAM, BRINGING ELEVATED WINDS TO THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS. 29W IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PEAK AT TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH A FEW OUTLIERS ARE PRESENT: NAVGEM, GEFS, ECMWF, AND ECENS. DISCOUNTING THOSE MEMBERS, THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 75 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT THE CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE NORTHERN MARIANAS (AROUND TAU 72). MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT IN A TRACK PASSING JUST NORTH OF GUAM, WITH RELIABLE PHYSICS-BASED AND EXPERIMENTAL AI-BASED MODELS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 29W WILL PASS BETWEEN GUAM AND ROTA. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT FROM TAU 0 UNTIL TAU 36, DEPICTING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES, AND STRONGLY SUPPORTING THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THAT TIME. FROM TAU 36, GUIDANCE DIVERGES, WITH GOOGLE DEEPMIND INDICATING RI BEGINNING AS SOON AS TAU 24, AND GFS INDICATING RI AS LATE AS TAU 72. THE TIMING OF THE RI PERIOD IS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON HOW 29W IS ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE AND VERTICALLY ALIGN ITSELF. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALIGNED CLOSELY WITH HAFS-A, COAMPS-TC, AND HWRF THROUGH TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN