053 WTPN32 PGTW 150900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 10.9N 158.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 158.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 11.3N 156.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 11.8N 153.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 12.2N 150.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 12.8N 148.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.3N 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.9N 143.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.3N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.3N 134.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 157.8E. 15OCT26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 809 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).// NNNN  402 WDPN32 PGTW 150900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 10.9N 158.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 809 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. OVERSHOOTING TOPS HAVE REACHED TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -94 DEGREES CELSIUS. A 142320Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED A PATCH OF 30-KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF AN ELONGATED, ASYMMETRIC LLCC. A 150228Z AMSR3 PASS DID NOT REVEAL A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE. THE SYSTEM IS TRAVERSING VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY OBSCURED LLCC IN MSI AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND RCTP. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST CYCLE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND THE UNANIMOUS T2.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR 30N 160E AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 150239Z CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 150540Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 150540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY 18 NM AT TAU 60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TD 29W HAS MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AN AVERAGE SPEED OF APPROXIMATELY 11 KTS. THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN SLIGHTLY MORE SPEED, AVERAGING 12-13 KTS THROUGH TAU 120, AS IT TRAVELS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. A TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AROUND TAU 48. HOWEVER, A RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY. OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL PERSIST, WHILE THE SYSTEM TRAVELS OVER VERY WARM SST OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) OF NEAR 100 KJ PER CM2. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE GRADUAL DUE TO THE ASYMMETRIC AND VERTICALLY TILTED VORTEX. ONCE THE VORTEX BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL AND VERTICALLY ALIGNED, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION WILL INCREASE. SHEAR WILL EASE TO 10-15 KTS BY TAU 72, WHILE THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER A REGION OF HIGH SST AND OHC BY TAU 96. THE FORECAST BRINGS TD 29W TO TYPHOON INTENSITY NEAR TAU 48, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH TAU 96. THE FORECAST PEAKS AT 125 KTS AT TAU 96, CONSERVATIVELY ACCOUNTING FOR LESS PREDICTABLE INTERNAL DYNAMICS THAT COULD CAUSE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD DECREASING FROM 90 NM LAST CYCLE TO 70 NM THIS CYCLE AT TAU 60. THE SPREAD SPANS FROM ROTA TO A POINT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF GUAM. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS LIES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE AI MODELS PREFER A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. GOOGLE DEEPMIND IS THE MOST WESTWARD SOLUTION, PASSING THE SYSTEM 14 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW), WHILE GFS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH. THE OVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD LAST CYCLE, AND THE SOLUTIONS THIS CYCLE REMAIN SIMILAR. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN A TRACK NEAR THE SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. THE JTWC FORECAST HAS THEREFORE BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD BY 18 NM AT TAU 60 AND IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF CONW, BUT 8 NM NORTH OF THE AI-MODEL MEAN AND 25 NM NORTH OF THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTION. MODEST SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE INTENSITY AIDS. DEEPMIND AND COAMPS-TC ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS, DEPICTING 95-110 KTS AT TAU 60 AND 135 KTS AFTER TAU 72. GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER OVERALL. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE ASYMMETRIC AND TILTED VORTEX, CALLING FOR A SLOWER INITIAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48, FOLLOWED BY RI THROUGH TAU 96. THIS FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 48, THEN GRADUALLY TRENDS TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE ENVELOPE. IF TD 29W CAN ACHIEVE AXISYMMETRIZATION QUICKLY, THE STORM MAY INTENSIFY TO WELL OVER 80 KTS BY THE TIME IT PASSES NEAR THE MARIANA ISLANDS. FURTHERMORE, A PEAK HIGHER THAN 125 KTS REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES, GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN