717 WTPN32 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 11.5N 156.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 156.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 12.0N 153.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 12.3N 151.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 12.9N 148.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.4N 145.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.9N 143.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.5N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.6N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 155.8E. 15OCT26. TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 692 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.// NNNN  006 WTPN32 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/ TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 11.5N 156.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 156.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 12.0N 153.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 12.3N 151.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 12.9N 148.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 13.4N 145.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.9N 143.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.5N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.6N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 155.8E. 15OCT26. TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 692 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).// NNNN  803 WDPN32 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.5N 156.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 692 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W FORMING A NASCENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BELOW. THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE SYSTEM, IMPACTED BY THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A THIN LINE OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE ATTEMPTING UPSHEAR EXPANSION, A SIGN THE SYSTEM COULD BE BEGINNING TO RESIST THE PRESSURE AND CONSOLIDATE. THE 151746Z SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA REVEALS A COMPACT SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH THE SMALL PATCH OF CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST, CONFIRMING THE SLIGHT WESTWARD VERTICAL TILT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), DECENT (75-100 KJ PER CM SQUARED) OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND MODERATE OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND THE AUTOMATED CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 151740Z CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 151740Z CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 151740Z CIMSS D-MINT: 33 KTS AT 151722Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 151810Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 29W (CHAMPI) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STEADILY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 WHILE IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTH. AT ABOUT TAU 36, A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH, WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND FORCING IT TO RETREAT EASTWARD. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SECOND STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSUMING STEERING INFLUENCE OVER 29W FROM TAU 36-120. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM ONE STR TO THE OTHER, AND THE NEW STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN THE STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 29W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12 WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND ORGANIZE. FOLLOWING TAU 24, 29W IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IT WILL ENCOUNTER BETWEEN TAU 24-72. THOUGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN APPROXIMATELY 15KTS THROUGH TAU 96, THE EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND CHAMPI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH A REGION OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER (100-125 KJ PER CM SQUARED) OHC. AFTER TAU 72, 29W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY UNTIL PEAKING AT TAU 96. AFTER THAT POINT, 29W WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A HIGH INTENSITY, AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. NAMELY, VWS IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO LESS THAN 10KTS BY TAU 96 AND OHC IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 150 KJ PER CM SQUARED. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD HAVE NO ISSUE SUSTAINING A STRONG TYPHOON, HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) INCREASES, WHICH WOULD CAUSE A MOMENTARY DROP IN INTENSITY. AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 96-120 REMAINS RELATIVE STABLE. THE POTENTIAL OF A PEAK INTENSITY GREATER THAN 130 KTS IS ALSO WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY 29W IS ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE BETWEEN TAU 0-24, THEREBY IMPACTING WHEN THE SYSTEM IS ABLE TO COMMENCE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AS THE STORM PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANAS IS 85 NM, EVEN INCLUDING TWO OUTLIERS (GFS AND GEFS). DISCOUNTING THOSE, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD DROPS TO 55 NM AT CPA, WITH THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A TRACK THAT CLIPS THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUAM OR PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS SUPPORTS THE JTWC NEAR-TERM TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AFTER TAU 72, THE GUIDANCE SPREADS A MINIMAL AMOUNT, COMPOUNDING TO A 200 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120 (EXCLUDING GFS AND GEFS), LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE LATE-TERM JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, EXPERIMENTAL AI CONSENSUS, AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, THOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF RI. SEVERAL JTWC RI INDICATORS HAVE REACHED TRIP CRITERIA, SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF RI OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE HAFS-A AND HWRF SOLUTIONS DEPICT RI BEGINNING AS LATE AS TAU 60. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DISAGREES ON THE PEAK INTENSITY AND THE TIMING OF THE PEAK. THE PEAK INTENSITY SPREAD RANGES FROM 105 KTS AND 135 KTS, WITH THE TIMING SPREAD BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE RI AIDS AND THE BULK OF MODELS FROM TAU 0-24, THEN HEDGED CLOSE TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND FROM TAU 24 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN