824 WTPN32 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 11.4N 151.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 151.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 12.0N 148.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 12.6N 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 13.1N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 13.7N 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 14.4N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.3N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 17.4N 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 19.4N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 150.8E. 16OCT26. TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z. // NNNN  466 WDPN32 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.4N 151.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 405 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W IS POISED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS APPROACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH. FOLLOWING THE COMPACT CYAN RING FEATURE DEPICTED IN THE 160611Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE, A TRANSIENT WARM SPOT BRIEFLY APPEARED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. SINCE THEN, EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, OBSCURING THE WARM SPOT, WHILE A LARGE BANDING FEATURE PERSISTS WEST OF THE STORM CENTER. A 161145Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS IMPROVED SYMMETRY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT LIKELY UNDERSAMPLED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WITHIN THE VERY COMPACT INNER CORE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) OF NEAR 100 KJ PER CM2. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND 10-15 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MARKEDLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A BLEND OF THE T3.5 AND T4.0 SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR 29N 160E AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 161110Z CIMSS AIDT: 52 KTS AT 161110Z CIMSS D-MINT: 63 KTS AT 160540Z CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 161040Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BY APPROXIMATELY 15 NM AT TAUS 24 AND 36. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 29W IS BEING STEERED WESTWARD BY A WEAKENING STR TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHING THE KOREAN PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW RIDGE OVER HONSHU. THE NEW STR WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD, MAINTAINING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 60. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH TS 29W TRAVERSING SST OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VWS. WITH A CLOSED INNER CORE NOW ESTABLISHED, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY ENTERING A PROLONGED EPISODE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TS 29W TO ATTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH SHORTLY, FOLLOWED BY A PASSAGE OVER OR VERY NEAR GUAM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER, WHILE THE GALE-FORCE WIND RADII EXTEND NORTHWARD TO TINIAN AND SAIPAN. AFTER TAU 60, VWS WILL EASE TO 5-10 KTS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER SST OF 30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS AND OHC VALUES OF 120-140 KJ PER CM2. HOWEVER, BY THIS TIME, DIFFICULT-TO-PREDICT INTERNAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DYNAMICS MAY CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO LEVEL OFF OR WEAKEN. THE WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AS IT PASSES THE SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 35 NM AMONG THE CORE MODEL GROUP NEAR THE CPA TO GUAM. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 150 NM BY TAU 72. THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN, WITH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL AND AI MODELS TAKING THE CENTER OF TS 29W SOUTH OF GUAM. GOOGLE DEEPMIND DEPICTS A PASSAGE 30 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. HAFS-A AND JGSM ARE THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT BRING THE SYSTEM OVER OR JUST NORTH OF GUAM. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN, NOW POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. ONCE AGAIN, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER. HAFS-A AND DEEPMIND DEPICT CONTINUED RI THROUGH TAU 48, WITH PEAK INTENSITIES OF 150 KTS AND 140 KTS, RESPECTIVELY, AROUND TAU 60-72. NEAR THE CPA TO GUAM, THE MOST INTENSE SOLUTIONS REACH UP TO 120 KTS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INTENSITY LEVELING OFF OR WEAKENING BEYOND TAU 72. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, ALIGNING WITH DEEPMIND THROUGH TAU 48 BUT REMAINING LOWER FROM TAU 60 TO TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN