987 

ABPW10 PGTW 151500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/151500Z-160600ZOCT2026//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150751ZOCT2026//

REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZOCT2026//

NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 15OCT26 0600Z, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WAS

LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 139.7E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO

TO, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS

GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 150900) FOR THE FINAL

WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.

      (2) AT 15OCT26 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 29W (CHAMPI) WAS LOCATED

NEAR 11.0N 157.4E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, AND HAD

TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45

KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 151500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

6.9S 164.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3SS 164.7W, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM

EAST-NORTHEAST OF SWAINS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY AND A 142041Z 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY

OBSCURED LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP

CONVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY. A 142003Z ASCAT PASS EMPHASIZES A

BROAD AND OPEN CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED (20-25KT) WINDS ALONG THE

WESTERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM FROM THE CENTER.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT

WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

(15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). THE CURRENT

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92P SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO A LOWER SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA

LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

IS MEDIUM.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.A.(2) TO

TROPICAL STORM.//

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