999 FXUS63 KFSD 180401 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1101 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The severe threat for tonight has ended. - A lower risk of severe weather exists late Monday afternoon and evening, mainly over northwest IA, before quieter weather moves in for the mid-week period. - Dry for the middle portions of the week. Then another round of storms is possible Thursday into Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The threat for severe weather has ended for tonight for the forecast region. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue for a few more hours, ending in the very early hours of Monday morning. Gusty northwest winds will expand eastward overnight, gusting 25-30 mph, with a few gusts to 35 mph over south central South Dakota. Winds continue to push east through the day Monday and remain breezy into Tuesday. By Monday afternoon chances increase for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may become strong to severe, especially for portions of northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa. Some uncertainty remains after today's storms as to how well the atmosphere will recover by tomorrow afternoon. If you have outdoor plans, please check the forecast for updates and have multiple ways to receive warnings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The short-term convective outlook presents a highly volatile spring severe weather setup. Latest surface analysis shows a complex pattern, anchored by a strong 994 mb low over northwest KS. An inverted trough extended north of the low through central SD, while a well-defined warm front stretched northeast of the low into east central NE. A weaker low was also noted in north central NE. Visible satellite imagery revealed stable wave clouds advancing northeast over far northeast NE and extreme SE SD, ahead of the advancing warm front. Regional radar imagery showed a complex of strong to severe storms over north central NE. This storm complex is forecast by short range guidance to continue tracking east this afternoon, intensifying as interacts with the richer low- level moisture pool near and south of the warm front. Moderate to strong instability will be in place over the southern to eastern CWA by late afternoon with MLCAPE nearing 3000 J/kg. In addition, deep layer shear will increase to around 50 kt, coincident with a mid level speed max ejecting from the deep upper trough to our west. As the system evolves over the next several hours, it appears the ingredients for a significant severe weather event will be most favored over the southern to eastern CWA. Ahead of the main convective line, some CAMs show supercell development along the northward advancing warm front. These storms would present a risk of very large hail (2"+) and tornadoes. Given the amount of low level SRH/curved hodographs present, a couple strong tornadoes are possible. The convective cluster currently entering our far southwest CWA should strengthen as it shifts east, with an initial hail and tornado threat transitioning to a damaging straight line wind threat (70+ MPH) as it grows upscale into a squall line/QLCS. Some line-embedded QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially for any line segments that become oriented north/south or northwest/southeast, given southwesterly 0-3 km shear vectors. Timing from latest high-res guidance suggests this activity exits to the east of our CWA late this evening. Precipitation amounts will vary significantly based on convective tracks, though NBM guidance and HREF probability match mean fields project a widespread 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rainfall, particularly across northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. On Monday, the cold front finally pushes into the area. Instability and shear are forecast to be much lower than today, however, there will be a conditional risk of severe storms over the eastern CWA during the late afternoon to evening, if the airmass can destabilize sufficiently ahead of the front. SPC's Day 2 outlook indicates as Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5), for our MN and IA counties. Behind the departing upper wave, quasi-zonal flow sets up for Tuesday and Wednesday, yielding quiet conditions and seasonally cool high temperatures moderating from the upper 50s Tuesday to mid-upper 60s Wednesday. The next upper wave moves in for the Thursday to Friday period, however Gulf moisture remains cutoff ahead of this system. Evaluating the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) reveals no significant climatological anomalies for precipitation or wind across the upper Midwest during this period, reinforcing the the idea of a low-impact system for our area. The current forecast sticks closely to the NBM consensus, maintaining broad 20-30 percent probabilities for light rain for late Thursday into Saturday. By late this week and especially this weekend, temperatures will embark on a steady upward trajectory, as the mid level flow backs west, then southwest. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 day outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, which supports blended guidance high temperatures reaching well into the 80s on Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Showers and storms will continue to move eastward into MN through the evening hours, the forecast area should be largely clear of shower/storm activity after ~05z. Intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rainfall as well as hail and strong winds will accompany the strongest storms. Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs will set in overnight and persist through much of Monday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AJP DISCUSSION...Dux AVIATION...Meyers  161 FXUS64 KMOB 180404 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1104 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - Patchy fog is possible late tonight and Monday night. - Rain chances increase by mid to late next week, especially over the northwestern portion of the forecast area. - Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through early next week with increasingly humid conditions. Heat indices will climb into low to mid 90s by Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Dry weather conditions generally prevail for most areas today outside of perhaps an isolated shower or storm over the interior this afternoon, best chances near the Highway 84 corridor. Rain chances gradually increase into mid and late week as upper ridging weakens and southwest flow aloft works its way into the area along with several weak shortwaves. This should be enough to generate isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage each day starting Wednesday. Rain chances continue to look like they will be best this weekend as a weak upper trough pushes across the region. Overall for those who see storms it will be a beneficial rainfall to continue chipping away at our ongoing drought across the forecast area. We will probably see some patchy fog across portions of the area through daybreak this morning and again Tuesday morning. The better signal for fog, some locally dense, appears to be Tuesday morning. Fog will generally lift pretty quickly after daybreak. Outside of the rain chances, temperatures will be warm near or just above normal for this time of year on both highs and lows throughout the week. Highs generally fall in the 85 to 90 range, warmest Wednesday where some spots across the FL panhandle into south-central AL make it to the lower 90's. Lows warm with time from upper 50's to middle 60's this morning to middle 60's to lower 70's by mid week. The rip current risk remains Moderate today, becoming High Tuesday before dropping back to a Low to Moderate risk Wednesday into late week. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR flight category this evening into the early overnight will gradually give way to MVFR and IFR ceilings late overnight into daybreak Monday morning. These ceilings should lift fairly quickly after daybreak, with the area returning to VFR flight category by mid-morning. Winds will remain generally out of the southeast around 5 knots tonight, increasing to around 10 knots gusting 15 to 20 knots during the day Monday. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through Thursday. Seas will build slightly by Monday and Tuesday then diminish Wednesday into Thursday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 84 68 86 70 / 0 0 20 0 Pensacola 82 71 83 71 / 0 0 10 0 Destin 81 71 82 71 / 0 0 10 0 Evergreen 88 62 89 65 / 0 0 20 0 Waynesboro 87 65 88 69 / 0 0 20 0 Camden 86 63 88 67 / 0 0 30 0 Crestview 88 64 89 65 / 0 0 20 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  274 FXUS62 KJAX 180406 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1206 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Risk Of Rip Currents through Tuesday - Thunderstorms this Week - Mainly Afternoon & Evening. Tue & Wed: Inland Storms. Thu-Sat: Better storm chances focus toward I-95 Corridor && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - High Risk for Rip Currents at local beaches early this week Today: Drier air mass with PWAT's around an inch or less will push into the local area on the south side of high pressure ridge axis. This will lead to much lower rainfall coverage with only isolated showers and/or storms across inland areas this afternoon, mainly along the I-75 corridor along with a lower severe storm threat as well. Max temps will push into the lower 90s well inland, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and middle 80s at Atlantic beaches. Breezy East to Southeast winds will continue to develop behind the inland moving East coast sea breeze with sustained winds around 15 mph with frequent gusts to 20-25 mph at times through the afternoon hours. This wind regime will continue a high risk of rip currents at local beaches. Tonight: Very quick end to any isolated showers/storms over inland areas this evening, but the long fetch of East winds over the Atlantic will start to trigger some widely scattered showers and isolated storms over the Atlantic waters offshore tonight, some of which could push onshore during the overnight hours, but overall rainfall chances remain 20-30% or less for land-based areas. The increased low level moisture will help increase patchy fog chances over inland areas of SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL towards sunrise Tuesday morning. Min temps will be close to normal values with lower/middle 60s inland SE GA and mid/upper 60s inland NE FL and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast in the onshore flow. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... - Daily thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor. - Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely into midweek. Onshore flow persists through midweek as High pressure remains over the Bermuda region. Chances of precipitation return on Tuesday and Wednesday as moist air moves in from the Atlantic, bringing PWATs upwards to 1.5" each afternoon. With the inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze, activity will be focused over inland locations towards the I-75 corridor each afternoon. The onshore flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up from 15mph to 20mph possible each afternoon. The persistent onshore winds will continue the risk for Rip currents through midweek. Daytime highs each afternoon will be in the lower 90s over inland locations prior to the onset of any showers or storms, while coastal locations will have highs in the mid 80s. During the overnight hours Lows will be in the 70s at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily afternoon thunderstorms; best coverage and strongest storms expected along the sea breeze mergers - Increasing chances of showers and storms this upcoming weekend. A frontal boundary pushes towards the SE US after midweek, but is currently expected to begin to slow and stall north of the area by the end of the week. As such, Thursday will continue the pattern from earlier in the week. Onshore flow from the Atlantic, with inland showers and storms as the sea breeze pushes inland. Looking towards the weekend, the influence of the stalling front could be enough to push the high pressure eastward. Which would allow for both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze to push inland during the weekend. With PWATs expected in the 1.5" to 1.75" range by the weekend, we could see higher chances and wider coverage of showers and storms as the sea breezes push inland and meet towards central locations of the area. Warm temperatures are expected during the forecast period as highs will sit in the lower to mid 90s across inland locations and in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Overnight Lows will be in the 70s area-wide. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... VFR with mostly mid/high convective debris clouds early in the period. Only patchy MVFR fog possible at VQQ, otherwise VFR through sunrise at terminals. On Monday expect lower rainfall chances and only VFR conds with increasing East winds to 10-14 knots with gusts to 15-21 knots at times with the passage of the East Coast sea breeze. VFR conds continue as winds slowly subside through the end of the TAF period Monday evening. && .MARINE... The Bermuda ridge will dominate through the week with a ridge axis extending just north of the local waters. This pattern will bring persistent east to southeast winds, with local wind surges each afternoon and evening trailing the inland progressing east coast sea breeze. Morning and midday showers and isolated coastal storms will shift inland by mid-afternoon with generally clearing skies across the local waters late afternoon into the evening. Rip Currents: A high rip current risk continues for all local beaches early this week due to persistent onshore winds. An elevated risk will continue through the end of the week due to prevailing ESE winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersions Into Midweek The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon heading into midweek. Patchy high dispersions will be present over inland locations Today and Tuesday. Moisture will continue to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of particular concern this week, with slightly lower values inland Today, however they will be above critical values. Moisture will steadily increases each day, with thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening, mainly for inland northeast FL through Thursday, then area-wide Friday through next weekend. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms each day Tuesday onward. Patchy fog possible early this morning and Tuesday morning for inland locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 62 90 64 / 10 0 20 0 SSI 81 71 84 73 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 87 68 88 69 / 10 10 0 0 SGJ 86 71 87 73 / 10 10 10 0 GNV 92 68 92 69 / 10 10 30 0 OCF 93 68 91 70 / 10 10 30 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...None. && $$  619 FXUS65 KRIW 180411 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1011 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain transitions to snow later this evening, and especially around midnight, with the heaviest snow occurring between midnight and 10am Monday morning. Combined with gusty winds, travel will be impacted tonight through Monday morning. - Greatest travel impacts expected around Lander, near Casper, across South Pass, and over Interstate-80. Gusty winds and snow will bring reduced visibilities and possibly icy surfaces with colder temperatures moving in. - Warming trend and mainly dry conditions for most of the CWA Tuesday onward through the end of the work week and into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Some small adjustments to liquid and snow totals were made with the latest hi-res models. However, the overall message remains unchanged, with the most impacted area being from a Lander to Casper line and south, including South Pass and I-80. Snow rates will be greatest between about midnight and 10 am Monday morning. One area of greater confidence is Lander, where totals by Monday morning will impact travel. Have therefore upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for the Lander Foothills. Gusty north to northeast winds bring further impacts as snow falls through Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026 In meteorology, the transition seasons, mainly spring and fall, are usually the most difficult to forecast for. This is because you still have different air masses of decent strengths still clashing, and this is no exception over the next two days. In addition, it can also lead to some strong storms since the weather drives off of a lack of balance in the atmosphere, and this is especially present in spring. A cold front is currently dropping southward through the area as I write this around midnight, with some strong wind behind it. This is especially the case in the favored cold advection / northwest flow areas like the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County, as both Buffalo and Greybull have seen gusts to around 50 mph. Wind should decrease a bit today, but will stay gusty through the day. It will also usher in much cooler temperatures, with the first below temperatures we have seen in a while. As for precipitation today, coverage will be increasing as an upper level low heads toward the area. During the day, the greatest coverage of showers will be across southern Wyoming, with lesser chances further north. However, most areas should be dry most of the time during the day today with the exception of Sweetwater County south of Interstate 80, where showers will be more numerous. The real impacts from the system begin tonight. Low pressure will open into a trough and pass to the south of Wyoming, bring an impactful storm to much of the area, with an emphasis on the southeastern half of our forecast area. Guidance is in good agreement on timing of the maximum impacts, which look to be from later Sunday evening through the rest of Sunday night and into Monday morning with some improvement in the afternoon. Confidence is high with this. However, it is lower in other facets of the storm, but not all. We will discuss them individually below. STRONG TO HIGH WIND...Gusty wind will occur through the day today. However, the strongest wind for many areas looks to occur later tonight and into Monday morning. Low pressure will pass over Colorado with a decent area of cooler high pressure building to the north. The result will be a good pressure gradient across the state, about 16 millibars from the northern border to the southern border. However, it is especially notable from south of Lander and Casper down to the southern border, with an emphasis on the Green and Rattlesnake Range and Sweetwater County, especially east of Rock Springs. The 700 millibar wind increases through the night with the strongest from around 3 am tonight until noon Monday when some guidance shows as strong as 60 knots. Both the NAM and GFS MOS show sustained winds at the Rock Springs airport over 40 mph at times through that period. There could be some gusts to 70 mph at times in the strongest wind, especially in the higher elevations in eastern Sweetwater County and along South Pass. Both the HREF and NBM ensembles show a greater than 1 out of 2 chance of wind gusts over 50 mph through this period in Sweetwater County, including Interstate 80. Travel is strongly discouraged during this period along Interstate 80. Wind should decrease in the afternoon as the low moves into the Plains states and the pressure gradient decreases, with lighter winds returning by Monday night. CONFIDENCE...Medium to high. SNOW... Uncertainty increases significantly here, along with fact it is mid May, the ground is warm and a lot of the snow that falls after 10 am would have trouble sticking due to the high May sun angle, making forecasting accumulations difficult. Models have come into somewhat better agreement in having the maximum impacts across southern Wyoming. Timing of the heaviest snow is also in fairly good agreement, with the maximum impacts from late this evening through Monday afternoon. There are a lot of contrasts here, so we will split this into three separate sections: Southern, Central and Northern Wyoming. Southern Wyoming...This still looks to be the most impacted location. This area will be closer the closest to the low and the best dynamics. Eastern Sweetwater County still looks to be most impacted from this, probably for the entire area. Both the NBM and HREF ensembles give a greater than 1 in 2 chance of greater than 6 inches of snow across the area. However, good luck measuring it with wind gusts expected to be over 50 mph. There could be some short periods of blizzard conditions, but enough confidence to upgrade here. Conditions here shouldn't be too bad until after sunset, with the changeover occurring between 8 pm and midnight as 700 millibar temperatures drop below minus 5. The most impactful time still looks to be from midnight Sunday night through Monday morning with improving conditions after that. Interstate 80 will likely be a mess and travel is not advised. We did make a couple of changes. Ensembles are showing a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 3 inches or more of snow in southern Lincoln County, so we added that zone to an advisory. We thought about the Salt and Wyoming Range as well, but with worst impacts will be above pass level. Otherwise, snowfall amounts look reasonable. And one final thing, there may be enough lift for some thunder snow. Central Wyoming...Things get a little more uncertain here, as terrain effects will have more of an impact here. This area will also be closer to the edge of the steadiest precipitation. The maximum impacts will be similar to other areas, mainly late this evening through Monday morning. But here are the forecast quandaries. In the Wind River Basin and Natrona County, elevation and upslope will be the concerns. With elevation, locations under around 5000 feet or so may stay a bit warmer for longer, allowing for more mixing and decreasing snowfall amounts. This includes places like Shoshoni and some areas around the north side of Casper. And the other is the upslope / downslope component. This could be especially notable in the Wind River Basin. Flow will be strong out of the north and northeast. This should led to a shadow in northern Fremont County, probably somewhere around Missouri Valley Road, where accumulations may be 2 inches or less. Contrast this with areas like Lander and Jeffrey City, where there will be good upslope flow and some areas may over perform. Where the exact cutoff for the best upslope will occur is still difficult to pinpoint. This could be a situation where Shoshoni has a coating to an inch, Riverton has 1 to 3 inches, 4 to 6 in Lander while Sinks Canyon has closer to a foot. It is the same story in Natrona County, where the lower elevations around Casper only have a 1 out of 4 chance of 4 inches or more. Meanwhile, US 20-26 to the west, which is around 1000 feet higher in some places, has a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 6 inches or more. Casper Mountain should also do well out of this, with a greater than 2 out of 3 chance of a foot or more above 8000 feet. The big winner still looks to be eastern Wind River Range though, where the highest peaks have a greater than 1 out 2 chance of 18 inches or more. In the lower elevations, the greatest impacts will be in the Green and Rattlesnake Range, where chances of over 6 inches of snow are greater than 4 out 5 and wind gusts over 40 mph will make for very difficult travel. Northern Wyoming...Impacts drop somewhat here. But again, elevation and upslope will play a role here. With elevation, this area generally has a lower elevation so impacts will be less. The eastern Big Horn Basin still looks to be the least impacted, with less than an inch or snow expected. The most impacted area, other than the mountains, looks to be Cody Foothills. For travel impacts, the portions of the higher elevations near Meeteetse above 5500 feet where there is greater than 1 in 2 chance of 3 inches of snow or more. However, wind is expected to be gusty to strong across much of the area, The advisories here are more impact related than snowfall total, as the wind and snow may reduce visibility and there could be some icy spots on the roads if the snowfall is heavy enough. Far northwestern Wyoming will be the least impacted, with only minor accumulations of snow expected. Starting Monday night, somewhat quieter weather then moves in for the rest of the week. The Rockies will still be under an area of cyclonic curvature so some instability showers will still be possible Tuesday and Wednesday, especially in northwest Wyoming where general northwest flow will bring some added upslope component. Most areas should remain dry though. Another weak system may move through Thursday with another chance of showers Thursday. With the northwest flow, temperatures should average below normal through Thursday with warmer temperatures returning for Friday an the holiday weekend as flow turns more zonal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1000 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Impactful winter weather conditions will continue at Wyoming airports overnight into Monday. Locations that are currently seeing rain will likely switch over to snow after 18/0600Z, and widespread IFR conditions are forecast at many locations in central and southern Wyoming. COD looks to remain north of the precipitation, but showers will impact the nearby terrain. Mountain obscurations will be ubiquitous over the next 18 hours. CPR and LND are worth mentioning specifically for snowfall, as these locations will see snow continue into Monday evening due to favorable upslope flow. Elsewhere, snow should generally taper off during the afternoon hours Monday. Expect gusty north to northeast winds with this system, gusting in to the 20 to 30 kt range for most locations. RKS will be windiest given its position close to the storm center, so gusts will likely be higher, in the 40 to 50 kt range overnight. RKS also has a chance (40%) of morning fog on Tuesday. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Monday for WYZ002-003- 005-007>011-014-016-017-026>029. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Monday for WYZ015-018>020- 022-030. && $$ UPDATE...Wittmann DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...VandenBoogart  905 FXUS63 KDMX 180414 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1114 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of storms moving from west to east through the area this evening. Damaging winds and embedded tornadoes are possible, especially in the northern half of the state. Locally heavy rainfall also possible. - Additional, widespread severe weather expected again on Monday. All severe hazards are possible, including tornadoes, large hail, strong winds and heavy rainfall. - Multiple rounds of efficient rainfall tonight and Monday night may lead to additional rises on rivers, particularly in southern Iowa. Flash flooding also possible in urban areas. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A surface boundary currently sits draped from west to east over Iowa early this afternoon. In areas north of this boundary, cloud cover has generally limited mixing and weaker winds aloft have prevented gusty conditions thus far today. Farther south, breezy winds have started to pick up and will continue to increase as the stronger winds aloft push northward into the area. This boundary is expected to lift northward through the afternoon and evening hours, bringing these gustier conditions farther north in the state. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible, although should generally be around 30 to 35 mph. Later this evening, we are looking at yet another round of severe thunderstorm potential. Warm moist air will advect northward with the boundary through the afternoon, presenting a highly unstable air mass to an approaching cold front from the west. Fortunately, a warm layer aloft has generally kept a lid on the atmosphere today and prevented any convection along the front so far. As this boundary lifts northward, a few scattered showers and storms may develop along it, but the capping generally appears to keep this activity at bay. The main show will be with the frontal passage later this evening, producing a roughly north to south oriented line of storms moving from west to east through the area. Instability ahead of these storms will be around 2000 to 3000+ J/kg, with a fair amount of shear maximized along the warm front that will then be across northern Iowa. Given this storm mode, the primary concern for our forecast area will be damaging winds, as modeled reflectivity structures imply strong cold pools being produced along this line through the northern half of the state. HRRR and RRFS wind gusty output support this potential for strong winds 60 to 75+ mph winds, especially as storms initially arrive in northwestern Iowa this evening. In addition, 30 to 40 kts of 0-3 km shear and 150+ J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE ahead of the line of storms could support tornadoes embedded within the line of storms, especially with any segments bowing to the northeast. This will be most favorable as storms initially arrive in the area and for the part of the line closest to the warm front in the northern half of the state. Waning shear and instability will cause the strong cold pools to fall out of balance and become outflow dominant through the night, which should diminish the tornado risk as the line passes over our area. However, gusty outflow winds will still be possible into the early morning hours. While storms won't be as severe farther south in the area, slower storm motions as the front begins to stall in Iowa may lead to prolonged periods of heavy rainfall through Monday morning. Should this rainfall linger over areas that already saw multiple inches of rainfall, particularly far southern Iowa, we could be looking at the potential for flash flooding and/or additional river rises. See hydro discussion below for more information. Overnight activity should generally wrap up by mid-morning on Monday, but our days of perpetual thunderstorm chances will not yet be finished. The atmosphere will work to recover ahead of an approaching 500 mb wave which is slated to produce storms across the area today. The synoptic support on Monday will be far more robust, leading to a highly dynamic scenario. That said, leftover mesoscale features from tonight will still play a role in how storms play out Monday. Of course, atmospheric recovery will be important, but this seems fairly likely by the time storms are expected to start in the late afternoon/early evening. The other factor will be where the cold front ends up on Monday. Right now, this is depicted to be over western Iowa, but very well could move depending on the strength of the MCS tonight. Regardless, of these features, it still looks likely we will see strong storms on Monday. Assuming the atmosphere recovers, some models indicate 4000+ J/kg of surface based instability and 40 to 50 kts of deep layer shear developing ahead of the cold front over central Iowa Monday afternoon. As the front progresses eastward, storms will fire along it, taking advantage of the loaded environment in Iowa. 300+ m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH will be available to storms with large looping hodographs. This environment will be conducive for all severe modes, including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. SPC has an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather over much of southeastern into central Iowa, with a 10% chance for tornadoes some of which could be strong (reasonable max up to EF-2). A moderate risk (level 4 of 5) is displaced just to our southwest where the best tornadic potential resides Monday afternoon. Finally, widespread storms across the area with plenty of moisture available from the low level gulf moisture stream will bring another round of heavy rainfall on Monday. This activity should be progressive enough to avoid long residence times over a particular area, but could produce efficient rainfall leading to more water being added to rivers in Iowa. It is worth mentioning, however, that both HRRR and RRFS output from this morning have not been recovering the atmosphere as well on Monday, leading to more convective inhibition than is being indicated by the coarser models. This lack of surface based instability would reduce our risk for tornadoes across the area, should that scenario play out. Storms would still occur with plenty of MUCAPE around, but they would be more of the elevated flavor. This degree of destabilization will certainly be something worth watching as we get through tonights storms and especially into tomorrow morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A much needed break from the active weather stretch begins on Tuesday as a high pressure nudges into the region later Tuesday into Wednesday. Mid-level winds behind the departing system Monday night also turn out of the north to northwest ushering in cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s to 60s on Tuesday through Thursday and lows Wednesday and Thursday mornings in the upper 30s to 40s. Winds on Tuesday will remain elevated through much of the daytime with a tight pressure gradient still in place with sustained winds out of the northwest 15-25 mph, and gusts to near 30 mph in the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms then return to the forecast from later Thursday into Friday as an upper trough crosses the Central Plains with a developing surface low reaching towards the area into Friday. Additional details to come in the next several days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Storms continue to push through central Iowa with precipitationslowly sagging southeast with time through the overnight hours. Localized visibility drops have occurred with sites down to MVFR or IFR at times. Similarly, ceilings have fallen to MVFR, IFR, and even LIFR. Behind the storms, MVFR ceilings, localized IFR, may move into portions of especially northern Iowa into Monday morning. Additional storms are forecast on Monday and have started with some prob 30 groups but refinements are likely. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The next two rounds of rainfall (this evening and Monday evening) will have ample moisture accessible to them thanks to a healthy gulf moisture stream up through the central U.S. Precipitable water values both tonight and Monday night will be nearing 1.6" to 1.7" (90th percentile for May 17th in Iowa is 1.27" and max is 1.6"). This suggests that anomalously moist air will be in place over Iowa as these storms move through, leading to efficient rainfall with both rounds. Fortunately, storm motions appear fairly progressive for both events, which should help prevent prolonged residence times. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2" are possible with some of the heavier storms. That said, there is some concern that as the cold front/outflow boundary stalls over Iowa late tonight into Monday morning, LLJ induced showers and storms may persist over southern Iowa/northern Missouri for some time into the morning. This could lead to some locally higher rainfall amounts of 3" or more in these areas. This is notable, as southern Iowa picked up the most rainfall yesterday as well, and a poorly placed swath of additional rain could exacerbate conditions along the Thompson and East Nishnabotna rivers. These rivers are typically a bit faster at routing water out, but full recovery is unlikely by tonight and rain could lead to additional rises. Likewise, soils in these areas are likely already saturated and crops are not to the point where they can help absorb water, leading to some flash flooding concerns as well. This is all contingent on if another swath of heavy rain lines up in these areas, but certainly something to keep an eye on tonight and again Monday night. Elsewhere in the state, urban areas will likely be most susceptible as soils in rural areas still remain on the drier side. However, with two potentially widespread rainfalls tonight and tomorrow, will be keeping an eye on where the heaviest rains set up. Should the same area be hit twice, ponding or flash flooding could develop. The weather prediction center has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today and a slight risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow, likely due to the two back to back rainfalls. Finally, in terms of river flooding, the perpetual rounds of storms should end by Tuesday, but could see rivers responding through the week, again depending on where the heaviest amounts fall. This will be something better assessed in the coming days. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dodson LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...05 HYDROLOGY...Dodson  904 FXUS64 KHUN 180414 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1114 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly in northeast Alabama Monday - Low to medium chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms returning late Tuesday, then medium to high chances (40-80%) for showers and thunderstorms each day, from Wednesday through next weekend && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Monday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Late this evening, satellite imagery and surface observations indicate an area of outflow from previous convection over Georgia moving into eastern Alabama. Besides brief gusty winds ~15-20 mph, a narrow band of cu/stratocu along the outflow boundary has produced a few showers, but those have been south/southeast of our area. It does not appear that showers will develop in NE Alabama at this time, but wanted to mention the boundary anyway as a brief, mild increase in SERLY winds may occur atop the plateau especially. Otherwise, satellite imagery indicates largely translucent high cirrus streaming into the area from the west, which could curb temperature falls a little. Nevertheless, lows tonight are still expected to fall to the low/mid 60s by daybreak Monday. For Monday, a plume of enhanced moisture on the western edge of the sub-tropical ridge will move a little further into AL, although highest moisture content is expected to be to our south. Nevertheless, a few showers/storms could develop particularly along the plume axis during peak heating in the afternoon. Vertical thermo and shear profiles are not supportive of any strong storm organization, with 0-6km bulk shear generally at or less than just 15 kts. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 From Monday night into Wednesday, the broad upr ridge will continue to hold sway across the Southeast, with deep SW-W flow remaining across the TN Valley. A trough in the Intermountain West into the North/Central Plains will remain nearly steady initially, but become increasingly positively tilted and deamplify as short waves round its base and move NEWRD. Essentially, the sub-tropical ridge will maintain dominance over much of the Southeast CONUS and westward into the Southern Plains, keeping the trough from advancing. However, a low-level boundary will make inroads towards the mid-South by mid-week, while SWRLY flow along the trough/ridge interface edges closer to the area. The result will be increased instability across our area with higher dew points and added dynamic forcing by late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase to low/medium during this period, with better chances in NW portions of the area closer to the better forcing. With a continued lack of deep layer shear, and modest thermo profiles, the activity will be more akin to general thunderstorm activity late Tuesday into Wednesday. Increased dew points will create warmer feeling conditions overall, but increased clouds and shower activity will make for lower max temperatures during the day especially on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 This pattern will continue largely unabated from Wednesday night into the weekend, with a broad summer-like subtropical ridge centered near Bermuda and deep SWRLY flow persisting across the TN Valley. A series of shortwaves are expected to ride along the trough/ridge interface across the region and bring bouts of increased shower/storm activity. Timing this is difficult, as the distinct nature of these shortwaves is difficult to discern in themodel guidance. Nevertheless, increased instability during the daytime will certainly act to regulate chances for showers/storms during the period. Thermo profiles during the Thurs-Friday period do not appear to change significantly, with generally moist- adiabatic type profiles in the increasing deep/humid airmass. PWs climbing to near 1.7 inches and only modest CAPEs and weak-modest shear would suggest the largest threat may be due to any localized flash flooding that could result, especially with the prospect for slow-moving training storms. Shear may increase a little into the weekend, but still would characterize as modest at best. Overall, this is reminiscent of a warm, early summer pattern with highs mostly in the 80s and warm nights with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected for KHSV and KMSL TAF sites for the next 24 hours. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KDW SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....KDW AVIATION...KDW  274 FXUS65 KPIH 180423 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1023 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Combination of Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory in effect for our growing zones through 9 AM Monday, with frost/freeze headlines necessary the next few mornings. - Temperatures gradually warm into above-normal territory throughout the week. - Breezy conditions will return areawide this evening and overnight with a Lake Wind Advisory in effect for breezy north to northeast winds over the American Falls Reservoir. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Upper trough in place over East Idaho today. A few showers ongoing over the eastern highlands, with more consolidated region of precipitation located over northern Nevada and portions of Utah late this morning. As center of upper low continues to work east through Utah through tonight, expect precipitation to work north into the southern and eastern highlands. 2-4" of snow is anticipated across the Bear River range and higher elevations east to the Wyoming border tonight through Monday. Northerly surface gradient today increases into tonight. Winds this afternoon should be strong enough to support chop near the dam on American Falls Reservoir, therefore a LAKE WIND ADVISORY remains in place for daytime boating hours. The winds continue to increase during the overnight, peaking between roughly 9pm and 3am across the northern portions of the Snake Plain. Winds MAY approach or exceed lower end advisory thresholds, but will hold off on additional headlines for tonight. Most guidance remains below advisory thresholds at this time, and overnight occurrence should minimize travel impacts across the region. The only remaining immediate impact will be the cold overnight lows tonight and especially Monday night across the region. A mix of FREEZE WARNING and FROST ADVISORY is in place for tonight, with the coldest temperatures aligning well with the strongest winds between Craters of the Moon and Mud Lake. Temperatures along the interstate corridor still look to remain above freezing overnight. Another round of cold temperatures is forecast for Monday night, with temperatures dropping a few degrees colder than tonight, supporting potential FREEZE WARNINGS for the entirety of the Snake Plain once again. For the remainder of the week, little has changed. Temperatures are forecast to see a warming trend through the remainder of the week, but temperatures may remain cool enough to support some combination of frost or freeze headlines for Wednesday morning. A series of weak shortwaves Wednesday through Friday may support light showers across higher elevations, but the overall trend supported by ensembles is for drier conditions. We are looking at temperatures potentially reaching the lower 80s in many areas by the weekend as high pressure shifts east into Idaho. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1018 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected at most sites through the period. DIJ is the one exception where CIGs/VIS have been borderline MVFR/VFR so far. Borderline MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to continue for DIJ. Conditions are forecast to remain dry at BYI, PIH, and IDA with VCSH remaining in the forecast for SUN and DIJ. Any showers at DIJ are expected to turn to snow after around 5z, which would bring a better chance of MVFR CIGS/VIS. Northerly winds behind the cold front will also increase tonight with gusts around 20-25 kts at DIJ, SUN, and BYI and closer to 35 kts at PIH and IDA. Winds will drop off by around 10kts after around 9 to 12z before ramping back again by late morning/early afternoon. Winds look to start dropping off gradually overall by around 20 to 21z for all TAF sites. Expect mostly clear skies by early to mid afternoon for all TAF sites. Wind drop off below 10 mph by early evening tomorrow evening. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Monday for IDZ051-052. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Monday for IDZ053>055. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMH AVIATION...TW  429 FXUS64 KAMA 180428 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1128 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - High-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions persist on Monday. - Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Tuesday night and extending through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Currently, a dryline boundary over the eastern combined Panhandles has begun its retreat west. Although we have observed isolated attempts at convective initiation, updrafts have not been able to sustain as convection moves off the boundary. Tonight, RH recovery is dependent on both a weak cold front in the north and the retreating dryline in the east. Current guidance points toward a weak cold front pushing into the Oklahoma Panhandle tonight, which would bring with it increased RH values and a W to even NW wind shift in the western OK Panhandle and NW TX Panhandle. This weak cold front, and the dryline retreating west overnight could put the majority of of the Panhandles in decent (greater than 50%) Rh recovery. However, it will likely leave the western TX and north-central TX Panhandle counties in quite poor RH recovery overnight (20-30%). An upper-level trough will swing from the southwestern US, through the 4-corners, and into the plains through the course of tonight and tomorrow. This will re-establish a lee-side surface low pressure system in eastern CO. The cold front that pushes into the northern CWA tonight will retreat as southerly/southwesterly winds strengthen to the south of the front and the low strengthens. As the low strengthens, and 850 mb support arrives in the form of a LLJ around 35-40 kts, surface winds are expected to respond with intensification in the Panhandles. Sustained winds could reach 30-35 mph across the Panhandles, with gusts up to 50 mph. Minimum RH's as low as 4%, with widespread minimums of 5-10% across the combined Panhandles will lead to critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions across the Panhandles. Thee dryline on Monday will push east throughout the day, and CAMs are in agreement that there will likely not be enough forcing present along it to initiate convection. However, a cold strong cold front is expected to push through the area on Monday night. The cold front will enter the OK Panhandle around 7-8 PM, reaching Amarillo around 10-11 PM. This cold front will bring increased relative humidity, but with the strength of the cold front and the tightening of the associated surface pressure gradient as it pushed through, it will likely bring some continued breezy post frontal winds from the north. So, although RH's will improve, winds will stay breezy (20-25 mph sustained) behind the front on Monday night. The cold front will knock down temperatures on Tuesday across the Panhandles. Low temperatures Tuesday morning could reach the low 30's in the NW CWA, while high temperatures will dip below average for most of the CWA. Ferguson && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Southwesterly flow aloft will persist for the majority of the forecast period. With a deeper trough axis in the SW, with the base extending south of CA, the surface level response to shortwave perturbations will likely be low-pressure centers in NM rather than CO. This would place us in the true warm sector of a weather pattern. This signal seems to persist from Wednesday through at least Saturday at this time. Greater confidence in severity and timing of showers or thunderstorms will be gained in the short term, as the atmosphere will likely still be recovering from the last weather system, persistent cloud cover could reduce severe chances, and the signal/synoptic support for this system is less forthright than the last. However, the signal is there, and if the atmosphere is able to build instability and avoid workover from multiple days of weather, showers and thunderstorms (possibly severe) are on the table. Ferguson && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 All terminals look to stay VFR through the present package as they continue to stay well west of the present dryline. Surface winds, instead will be the more impactful weather element as terminals are likely to report gusts upwards of 35 to near 40kt through sunset with some low chances of low-level wind shear seen overnight. One thing to watch will be the potential for a weak frontal boundary to push into KGUY later tonight as it could decouple the winds and create much stronger low-level wind shear. Otherwise, Monday looks to be repeat of today with dry conditions and gusty surface winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 As of late tonight, present radar and ground observations where already seeing the dryline retreat west with some observation sites reporting relative humidity values above 50 percent. Present CAMs have the line stopping roughly around eastern most edge of the Panhandles’ western most counties. Much like last night, the final resting place of the dry line will be important as areas west of it will see very poor overnight relative humidity recovery that could only reach as high as 20%. However unlike last night, the northern Panhandles look to have add complexity in the form of a weak cold front. Based on the latest CAMs, and it current position, this front looks to move into the Oklahoma Panhandles roughly around midnight to 2 AM and stall somewhere in the northern most row of Texas counties. Areas behind this front will see winds shift to a more northerly direction for the overnight, but with speeds on the lighter side (10 to 15 mph). Instead this front will actually be a benefit as it will have the potential to collapse the dry line for a period of time giving the north an opportunity at great overnight recovery of relative humidity values in the 60 to 75 percent range. The only thing that will need to be watched is that winds could stay breezy in the south central and eastern portions of the Texas Panhandles for the overnight period. Moving into Monday will a very similar set-up to what was seen yesterday with dryline looking to once again surge into our east. This will see many counties bottom out once again with relative humidity in the single digits that afternoon and evening. However, the still present upper-level jet support as well as the approaching cold front that night, will see an added boost to our winds for the day. At this time present guidance is showing strong indication that southwesterly to southerly winds could reach speeds up to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph not out of the question. Meanwhile to our east, we will need to monitor the where dryline officially stops for that afternoon as it is once again a prime forcing mechanism for any thunderstorm potential for the day, which could lead to more lightning started wildfires and erratic and gusty outflow winds. As for the expected cold front, present timing from the CAMs has it arriving in the Oklahoma Panhandle as early as 7 PM Monday evening with a more likely time of around 8 to 9 PM. The arrival of this front will aid in seeing relative rapidly rise across the Panhandles, but at the cost of seeing winds shift a northerly direction with speeds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts upwards of 30 mph during the overnight period. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM Monday to midnight CDT Monday night for TXZ001>020-317. Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ001>020-317. OK...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM Monday to midnight CDT Monday night for OKZ001>003. Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...11  584 FXUS64 KTSA 180433 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1133 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - Windy with isolated to scattered showers and storms through Monday evening. Limited severe risk. - Numerous showers and storms Monday night into NE OK spreading southward Tuesday. Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall. - Cooler temperatures Wednesday with continued low rain chances through the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Monday Night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Strong low level jet has developed across the local region with minimal boundary layer decoupling allowing for periodic strong wind gusts through the early Monday morning hours. Weak disturbance lifting from N TX into W AR along with ongoing strong moist advection and a weakly capped airmass warrants low shower and storm chances through Monday morning primarily far E OK and NW AR. A lull in rain chances appears likely Monday afternoon through Monday evening though strong gusty winds will continue. Focus will become the cold front and storms developing across KS Monday evening and then spreading south into NE OK near or slightly after midnight. Fcst soundings suggest the line of storms will have a time frame to remain severe into NE OK Monday night before encountering stronger inhibition prompting a weakening trend. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Showers and storms will be ongoing early Tuesday with a continued southward advance through the day. An uptick in storm intensity is possible through the day Tuesday before storms clear the forecast area, however the bulk of severe weather is likely to focus south and west of the forecast area by Tuesday evening. Heavy rainfall is possible through the day Tuesday however latest guidance remains progressive with the line of storms which would keep that threat localized. Showers and storms are likely to persist into the day Wednesday as another round of lift interacts with the elevated frontal zone across the region. Lesser instability will limit the severe weather risk. Noticeably cooler temps follow the front and persist through mid week. The late week pattern maintains one or more waves passing across the region supporting continued daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Overall, this will be a low-confidence aviation forecast. VFR continues to prevail across the district early this evening. This should gradually change later tonight and overnight tonight as MVFR cigs develop and overspread much of the area through daybreak Monday. Low ceilings are expected to mix-out and lift across eastern OK by late morning, likely sticking around over the AR terminals into the afternoon. Latest model guidance shows brief, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms periodically occurring this evening and overnight; most terminals should stay dry, but did include -SHRA at KTUL and KRVS overnight. A better chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur near or just before sunrise Monday morning with models shows an uptick in convection. Included PROB30 groups for lightning/thunder mid-late morning for the OK terminals and through the afternoon at the western AR terminals. Forecast confidence is low on timing and duration of precipitation chances and TAFs may need to be amended and adjusted. Ceilings should gradually lift and become widespread VFR by mid-late afternoon. South winds will remain breezy and gusty through the period, with gusts in excess of 30 knots for a few locations Monday afternoon. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 73 87 67 74 / 20 20 80 70 FSM 72 89 72 85 / 30 30 10 80 MLC 74 88 74 82 / 20 20 20 90 BVO 71 88 61 71 / 20 20 80 50 FYV 71 86 72 81 / 30 30 20 90 BYV 72 85 72 82 / 30 30 20 90 MKO 73 87 70 78 / 20 30 30 90 MIO 73 86 67 74 / 20 30 70 80 F10 73 87 70 78 / 20 20 40 80 HHW 72 87 72 82 / 30 20 10 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ055>064-067-154-254- 354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...67  674 FXUS64 KMAF 180437 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1137 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1134 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through Monday. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame. - Hot, breezy, and very dry conditions will bring critical fire weather conditions to the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin this afternoon and again Monday afternoon and evening. - Rain and storm chances increase (40-80% chances) by the middle to latter part of the week. We will be monitoring a few strong to severe storms each day. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns over locations east of the Pecos River Wednesday into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Summer-like temperatures and strong south/southwest winds during the daytime persist into the early week. VIS/IR satellite imagery depicts scattered clouds across the eastern portions of the area this afternoon. Lower clouds will largely remain to the east of the forecast area, since the more humid air east of the dryline (characterized by dew point temperatures above 60F throughout the day) largely remains east of the forecast area. In the drier air west of the dryline, strong south/southwest winds enhance critical fire weather concerns over SE NM into Culberson County and northwest Permian Basin today and tomorrow (see Fire Weather discussion). Highs today rise into the 90s F, mid to upper 80s F higher elevations, and 105F to 110F for the Big Bend. Hazardous heat will be less widespread than yesterday due to slightly cooler temperatures and lower dew point temperatures maintaining apparent temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s F. There is again a stray (<5%) chance of a shower/storm over northern and eastern parts of the Permian Basin from late this evening into tomorrow morning, but most places should remain dry as lows fall into the mid 60s to lower 70s F east of the dryline and mid 50s to lower 60s F west of the dryline. Following a humid start to the morning with low stratus over easternmost parts of the forecast area, the dryline will once again surge east of the area and allow hot and dry weather to prevail, with 90s F, triple digits for central and northeast parts of the forecast area, and along the Rio Grande. Unlike today, highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer due to stronger west/southwest downsloping winds, so there is some risk of hazardous heat mainly over the easternmost Permian Basin and Terrell County where dew point temperatures will be higher closer to the dryline. Lows tomorrow night will be similar to tonight, but low (15% to 20%) PoPs develop over the eastern Permian Basin early Tuesday morning as a disturbance ripples through southwest flow aloft and provides lift and moisture for elevated convection. Shower/storm chances will continue to increase throughout the day and this is merely a prelude to a cooler and more unsettled weather pattern by the middle of next week. Read the Long Term Discussion below for more details. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A pattern shift finally takes place across west Texas and southeast New Mexico going into the middle to late part of the week. A cold front will be pushing through the Texas panhandle early Tuesday morning and may make it as far south as the southeast New Mexico Plains and Permian Basin by late Tuesday morning before stalling over the Trans Pecos on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday will depend on the positioning of the front, but highs are currently forecastto trend cooler in the upper 80s to lower 90s over portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin Tuesday behind the front, while staying hot in the upper 90s over the Trans Pecos and up to 101-108 degrees along the Rio Grande. Moisture values will be improved east of this boundary, with afternoon dewpoints in the 40s and 50s over the Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos, while much drier air resides over western portions of the forecast area. Shortwave impulses in southwesterly flow aloft should translate over west Texas Tuesday afternoon and evening, and may aid in the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of the boundary, including over much of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region where a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds will be possible during the afternoon/evening hours. A series of more significant shortwave impulses embedded within southwesterly flow aloft will move across our forecast area Wednesday into Thursday while the surface boundary remains oriented over the forecast area both days. An easterly to southeasterly surface flow pattern will also return both days, allowing low level moisture to increase with dewpoints back into the 50s and 60s. Medium range and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement with bringing increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with the best coverage along and east of the Pecos River, including far southeast New Mexico, the Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin. Increasing deep layer moisture and associated precipitable water values up to 1.25 to 1.5 inches will bring potential for locally heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns east of the Pecos River late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Weak shortwave ridging aloft may build over the area by Friday bringing lower rain chances by Friday. There will still be enough moisture and instability along the lingering boundary to maintain low (20-40%) POPs on Friday. An upper-level trough or low may pivot over the forecast area this weekend with sufficient moisture remaining in place to keep a mention of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures trend back to near to slightly below normal values. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours at the TAF sites though MVFR CIGs could approach MAF to the east near 12Z. Gusty winds will subside for a few hours from 09-15Z before increasing again due to daytime heating. Hennig && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Breezy and dry conditions can be expected through the remainder of this afternoon again Monday afternoon with min RHs bottoming out in the mid single digits. Poor RH recovery is expected again tonight west of the Pecos River. This very dry airmass combined with well above normal temperatures, southwesterly 20 foot winds up to 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts, and ERCs in the 75th-90th percentile will bring critical to near extreme fire weather conditions over the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, and northwestern Basin both this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. We have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning over these areas for Monday afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 99 69 90 / 10 10 10 30 Carlsbad 63 94 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 71 101 72 97 / 0 0 0 30 Fort Stockton 66 100 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 62 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 60 93 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 53 91 5491 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 69 97 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 69 97 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 64 98 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...10  780 FXUS64 KEPZ 180441 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1041 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1027 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 - Critical fire weather conditions through Monday due to strong winds and very low humidity. Red Flag Warnings in effect for most of New Mexico and West Texas. - Lighter winds, but still breezy conditions during the afternoons, Tuesday through the rest of the week. While some low level moisture will try to work in from the east during the overnights, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will mainly be focused east of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1027 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 ...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... The well advertised longwave trough will move west to east across the Central Rockies on Monday. Deep southwest flow aloft will continue to overlay New Mexico. The deepening upper level system and increasing PVA will induce lee-side surface low development over southeast Colorado of ~990mb. This combined with tightening surface pressure gradient will promote breezy to windy conditions across the Borderland Region on Monday. Sustained west/southwest winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph will be common across the area, with higher gusts up to 50-55 mph possible over the Sacramento Mtn/Black Range and the adjacent eastern foothills. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 5 AM to 6 PM for the Sacramento Mtns. Isolated areas of blowing dust will be possible across the Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas desert lowlands, especially in and around dust prone locations. Temperatures on Monday will top out around 90 degrees across the desert lowlands. On Tuesday, a backdoor frontal boundary will drop down the High Plains in the wake of the aforementioned trough. The front will bump up against the Central New Mexico Mountain Chain, infringing on the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mtns. This backdoor front will not push any further west during the day on Tuesday as the dry westerlies kick into gear across most of the forecast area. High temperatures on Tuesday will hover around 90 degrees across the desert lowlands. By Tuesday night and into Wednesday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will wash out and merge with the High Plains dryline. On Tuesday night, convection over the Trans Pecos will push the boundary westward towards the forecast area. The question remains, how strong and how far west will the associated outflow boundary push west Wednesday morning? That said, mentionable PoPs are in the grids for the eastern portions of Otero and Hudspeth Counties Wednesday afternoon. The dryline/associated outflow boundaries will try to make another push westward on Thursday morning with guidance showing shallow moisture over far eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Those areas just mentioned will be the focus for shower and storm activity Thursday afternoon. ...REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... Dry westerly flow looks to win out for the remainder of the week with upper level ridging building in across the Desert Southwest. Temperatures during the second half of the forecast period will hover right around the seasonal average for Memorial Day Weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period. FEW to SCT at 25kft will continue through the late evening and early overnight hours, becoming SKC by day break. Winds will be breezy through the TAF period, out of the west/southwest at 13-18 knots with gusts to 23-28 knots. LLWS will be possible tonight for KELP and KDMN as winds above the surface remain gusty. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Winds have been slowly increasing acrossthe area this afternoon, with some downslope enhancement in places, and blockages in others. Winds aloft will increase tonight. For the Sacramento Mountains, high-res model runs and Wind Ninja indicate winds will diminish for a few hours after sunset, and become rather variable with direction. On the Seven Cabins fire, light ESE winds may actually develop along the NE flank of the Capitan Ridge, with WSW winds persisting elsewhere, and stronger SW winds along the ridgetop. But between Midnight and 2 AM, strong SW downslope flow looks to return, and Red Flag conditions are likely to return to favored downslope regions. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, and in the Sacramento zone, there is no break from today's RFW, though the lull and variability between sunset and midnight is noted. Gusty winds will return by mid-morning across the wider area, and Red Flag Warnings are in effect for much of the day Monday across the remainder of the area, except for Hudspeth County, as winds there look to taper off very quickly as you head south and east of El Paso. A backdoor cold front dropping down the Plains on Tuesday won't push west of the higher terrain, but will interrupt and weaken the pressure gradient a bit. We'll see the winds diminish as a result, though SSW winds will remain breezy in far SW New Mexico, with some gusts around 25-30 mph for a few hours in the late afternoon. Dryline sloshing will try to bring east winds and enhanced moisture into far eastern areas each morning through the middle of the week, but thunderstorm chances look to stay out over the eastern Plains of New Mexico and the Transpecos Region in Texas. Breezy SW winds will continue in the afternoon, strongest to the west of the Rio Grande, and flirting with, but likely falling short of the lower end of Red Flag criteria through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 65 91 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 63 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 59 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 50 76 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 55 88 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 51 84 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 61 96 61 97 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 61 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 58 88 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 88 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 59 89 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 52 75 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 49 73 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 46 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 46 75 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 81 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 54 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 47 75 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 48 80 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 48 77 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 51 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 53 84 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 84 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 53 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County. NM...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT Monday for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM MDT Monday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers  792 FXUS66 KSGX 180441 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 941 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts will gust to 40 to 50 mph this evening, weakening and turning offshore tonight. Gradually warmer and dry weather with periods of weak offshore flow Monday through Wednesday. Continued warming inland through Thursday, then slow cooling into next weekend. The marine layer will be shallower Tuesday through the reminder of the week with less extensive night and morning low clouds. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Evening update... Gusty onshore winds and pockets of blowing dust in the deserts continue. Whitewater recorded the highest wind gust of 69 mph at 550 PM. A list of peak wind gusts is headlined on our website at weather.gov/sgx. A cold front moving in from the north has kicked up plenty of dust across NV and into the Owens Valley. This dust storm has progressed southward behind the front through the afternoon and is forecast to arrive in our portion of the Mojave Desert later this evening. So far visibility at the few and far between ASOS sites in northern San Bernardino County have only dropped to about 3 miles. Not anticipating visibility to lower enough for a dust advisory or dust storm warning, but those traveling on I-15, Highway 395, or other routes in the Mojave desert should be prepared for sudden reductions in visibility and gusty winds. For the coastal and valley areas, a deep marine layer remains in place. High-res guidance continues to show light precipiation west of the mountains tonight (mainly in San Diego County), so introduced light drizzle into the forecast. Winds turn offshore as the aforementioned front continues to shift south, which will help clear out marine layer clouds and end any light precip by mid- morning Monday. Otherwise light smoke possible at times west of the mountains due to the Santa Rosa Island Fire in the Channel Islands. Previous discussion... .SHORT TERM (Today through tomorrow night)... Gusty winds will continue through the day today and through this evening as low pressure brings winds from the west over the area. As low pressure shifts further east, winds will ease through Monday. Strongest winds are in the deserts, desert mountain slopes and mountain passes with gusts up to 45 to 55 mph, locally up to 60 mph. Highs today and Monday will be near to just below average for much of the area. The exception being some areas in the Riverside and San Bernardino county mountains with highs 5 to 10 degrees below average. Low clouds from the marine layers influence will stick around through the day today and are expected to clear Monday morning. && .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... As winds shift to off shore Tuesday, low clouds will stick closer to the coast, giving us some much needed sunshine in the afternoons at least through mid-week. Temperatures increase area wide Tuesday, with daily highs continuing to increase through the week, peaking Thursday afternoon. Temperatures Thursday will be up to 5 degrees warmer than average over most of the area. The high deserts will see temperatures 5-10 degrees above average. && .AVIATION... 180600Z...Coast/Valleys...Clouds with varying bases 2000-4000 ft MSL in place across the entire coastal basin this evening, but drier air moving in and the development of offshore winds should help clear out much of the cloud cover by sunrise. A majority of the lower clouds with MVFR CIGs are focused across the coastal areas, though CIGs will likely be intermittent through the next several hours. Guidance is consistent in that a bulk of the cloud cover will grow more and more patchy after 09z, with nearly full clearing by 15-18z. Onset northerly offshore winds through the Cajon Passes around 09- 12z, with some BLDU from the deserts sneaking through below the pass as well. Winds remaining onshore at the coasts, with onshore flow resuming into the inland valleys by Monday afternoon. Low confidence in the return of marine layer clouds Monday evening, but will likely not occur until after 03z Tuesday. Mountains/Deserts...Gusty onshore winds from earlier today have largely fallen below 25 knots at this hour. A backdoor front bringing offshore northerly winds is currently pushing southward through San Bernardino County. Accompanying this front is 25-35 knot northerly wind gusts, along with blowing dust which may bring visibilities down to 2-5 SM. BLDU and northerly gusts expected to reach the High Desert between 05-07z, and into the Coachella Valley by 06-09z. Wind gusts gradually decreasing overnight with improving visibility after the front passes. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions expected through Friday. && .BEACHES... A westerly swell from 290 degrees with a 9 to 10 second period is bringing elevated surf of 4 to 6 feet through Monday morning. Highest surf on west to northwest facing beaches. The combination of elevated surf and high tides of 6.5 to 7 feet will result in minor tidal overflow, especially for beach parking lots and boardwalks. Surf will start to decrease Monday afternoon. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. Wind Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...SS/Villafane AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Munyan  814 FXUS63 KFGF 180442 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1142 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain tonight with another round Monday night bringing a two day total of a quarter to half inch for nearly all areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Severe potential continues to dwindle in our southeast (Wilkin, Grant, Ottertail, Wadena counties) with a small hail threat the main concern as of now through about 10-11pm. Could see some hail up to dime size but even that feels like a stretch. IN OTHER NEWS ITS RAINING. For the first time since mid to late April for most we are seeing rain totals over a quarter inch which should immensely help to put a damper on blowing dust and fire danger. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...Synopsis... Severe convection potential looks to remain mainly in west- central Minnesota this afternoon/evening as model guidance continues to prog the main surface-based instability barely approaching southern Grant County. Elevated instability remains expected to ascend north of the warm front this afternoon, bringing the potential for elevated showers and thunderstorms across southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Areas that see storms through the evening will have the potential to see rainfall exceed 1 inch. Elsewhere, generally expect rainfall totals between a quarter inch to half inch. For severe convection potential, see the severe section below. Rainfall should exit the region late this evening/early tomorrow morning giving a brief break from precipitation before the main upper trough ejects over the intermountain west. As this trough ejects, it looks increasingly likely that a swath of precipitation will dump a broad swath of at least a quarter of an inch of precipitation. Unfortunately, there looks like there will be a region between where rain falls today and where rain falls tomorrow that could see very limited rainfall amounts, which may exacerbate ongoing dryness. Instability will be well cut off tomorrow so severe thunderstorms and thunderstorms are not expected to develop. The remainder of the period will be characterized by relatively cool temperatures through midweek with frost/freeze potential Wednesday morning. Drier conditions will also return but with flow aloft being relatively weak, the probability for red flag conditions is low. ...SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY... Surface analysis this afternoon shows the warm front roughly situated just north of Sioux Falls. This has allowed intense isentropic ascent over our area, bringing some solid moisture content to the region. This warm front remains expected to propagate northward this afternoon and bringing surface moisture with it. CAM guidance continues to generally prog the surface instability south of our CWA, barely scraping Grant County. Per HREF probabilities, there is only a 10% chance to even see 500 J/kg of SCAPE. MUCAPE also is very closely attached to this warm front and shares similar probabilities as a result. Having said that, shear associated with the front is rather strong, approaching 50+ knots. There will be a brief window this evening (likely at most 1-2 hours) wherein severe convection may impact our west-central Minnesota counties. Any severe convection will most likely be hail as storms are likely to be elevated as storm relative winds in the 0-2km layer are most likely to be due easterly, so it will be difficult to ingest warmer air to the south. If surface-based convection arises, tornadoes can't be ruled out but again this is very unlikely at this time and would require very strong propagation northward in the warm front. The window of severe thunderstorms ends roughly close to midnight at the latest, but should generally be out ofthe area by 8-10 PM CDT. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 IFR ceilings are overspreading eastern ND (LIFR in central ND), and will eventually overspread northwest MN through 09Z. There may be a brief period of improvement to MVFR early Monday afternoon, however IFR should return to all sites by the evening. Winds will trend towards the north-northwest as low pressure shifts to the south of the region. Organized areas of rain/rain showers are still transitioning from eastern ND across northwest MN, with drizzle/light fog potentially lingering into the morning hours. There should be a break in rain before the next system arrives late Monday afternoon and areas of rain overspread much of eastern ND and northwest MN once again through the evening hours. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...Perroux AVIATION...DJR  840 FXUS66 KMTR 180443 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 943 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 120 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions, especially across the North, East, and South Bay Mountains and the Santa Cruz Mountains through Monday - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday - Hazardous marine conditions expected through Monday - Elevated fire weather concerns continue through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 120 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (This evening through Monday) Winds eased overnight but are starting to ramp again across the region but especially across the higher elevations. While winds were predominantly onshore over the last few days, this next round of wind will be offshore. Synoptically, a ridge of high pressure sits to our west over the Pacific Ocean while a positively tilted upper level trough moves into the Intermountain West. The orientation of these two features will promote North to Northeast winds across our region or offshore flow. The SFO-WMC gradient has largely been weakly positive (onshore) the last few days but is expected to become negative (offshore) and strengthen today into early tomorrow. Current guidance has the SFO-WMC gradient peaking around -7 to -8 mb which supports gustier offshore winds. The SFO-ACV remains strong around -8 to -8.5 mb indicating good northerly flow will continue. These winds will be strongest across the higher elevations of the North Bay, East Bay, South Bay, and Santa Cruz Mountains where gusts to around 50 mph and locally higher gusts up to 60 mph are expected this evening into tomorrow morning. The strongest winds are expected to occur overnight tonight through late tomorrow morning. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 11PM tonight through 11AM Monday for these locations. While not as strong as across the higher elevations, winds will still be breezier across the rest of the region. Guidance currently keeps winds gusting between 25 to 35 mph (below Wind Advisory criteria) but we may see a few stronger gusts mix down into the lower elevations at the base of mountainous terrain. Winds are then expected to diminish through the remainder of the day on Monday. High temperatures remain seasonably cool today in the 70s to low 80s across the interior and 50s to 60s along the coast. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow with coastal temperatures in the 60s to low 70s and interior highs in the 70s to 80s. Extremely dry conditions continue through midweek with elevated fire weather concerns across the interior Bay Area and Central Coast. Daytime humidity values will be incredibly dry with the higher elevations dropping to between 10-15% today. A few fires have been reported across the interior this morning including the Pass Fire in Alameda County (Altamont Pass region). Fuels are expected to rapidly dry as strong offshore flow develops today into tomorrow which is likely to lead to an increase in grass fires. Take care while participating in any outdoor activities involving fire. Remember, one less spark, one less wildfire. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 120 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) Broad upper level troughing will push eastward by midweek with high pressure generally restrengthening over the West Coast. The center of the ridge and surface high pressure looks to be farther north closer to the PNW while a weak upper level trough lingers over SoCal and Arizona. This setup would support a return on onshore (northwest) winds but they will not be as gusty as those experienced this weekend. The surface pressure gradient will be more widespread (i.e. not as tight) as it was this weekend and it will lose upper level support with the polar jet stream shifting northwards and the tropical jet stream shifting south. While the winds are dying down, temperatures are starting to warm up. The return of ridging and high pressure will allow a warming trend to kick off this week and see a return of 80s/90s to the interior and 60s/70s along the coast. Patchy moderate heatrisk is expected across interior, urban areas this week with temperatures running around 10-15 degrees above normal. The question is how much of a marine influence will we see this week and will it be enough to keep our coastal areas/portions of the interior cooler this week. Right now, high resolution guidance keeps a shallow (500 ft) marine layer present through mid to late week which would keep its influence (fog, cooler temps) tied to more coastal areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 936 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of haze being observed at HAF. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period; however, haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Strong and gusty northerly/offshore winds will prevail tonight with onshore flow returning tomorrow afternoon. Low level wind shear (LLWS) is expected through tomorrow morning. The 18Z end time is pessimistic with most LLWS activity expected to occur when the atmosphere is decoupled overnight until it recouples tomorrow morning, probably closer to 15Z. LLWS is primarily expected between FL015 and FL020 with speeds of 35-45 knots out of the north/northeast. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with gusty northerly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Strong and gusty northerly winds are expected through the morning before backing to become onshore tomorrow afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Diurnal winds are expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 936 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Hazardous conditions are expected tonight before improving tomorrow. Strong northerly breezes with widespread gale force gusts and rough to very rough seas are expected tonight. Conditions will slowly begin to improve tomorrow as winds diminish and seas abate. Conditions will remain hazardous to small craft throughout the week, especially for the northern outer waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 443 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Strong and gusty north to northwest winds continue to affect the region, shifting slightly into Sunday afternoon, and becoming north to northeast. Expect peak gusts greater than 30 mph for most areas, with around 45 to 55 mph along through gaps and passes, and across higher terrain. Daytime humidity retentions loos to stay around 10- 25% across the interior regions and higher peaks, with limited overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early Monday before diminishing. Humidities will be slow to recover into the work week as a light offshore flow will continue to affect the district. && .BEACHES... Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PDT Monday for CAZ006-505-509- 530. Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for CAZ504-512-514-515. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0- 10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  860 FXUS65 KGJT 180444 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1044 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow returns tonight through tomorrow morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the eastern Uinta, Elkhead, and Park Mountains. - Freezing temperatures are expected to impact the Central and Lower Yampa River Basin Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Freeze highlights are in effect. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1039 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 WET AND COLD MONDAY: On Monday, the low which has been driving this active weather pattern will be moving overhead. As temperature take a dive near sunrise behind the associated cold front, near-surface conditions will rapidly moisten up. This should be plenty enough to promote another day of widespread precipitation. In spite of the frontal boundary being draped across the CWA, forcing is overall unimpressive and instability is minimal due to the anticipated morning cloud cover region-wide. So look for Monday's stormy weather to be more stratiform. A few discrete storms cannot be ruled out though, particularly later in the afternoon as cloud cover disperses to a degree. With temperatures dropping though, our focus is shifting away from severe weather potential towards another round of snowfall for our higher elevation locations. Snow levels are generally high (>9,000 ft) across the area, though further north from the eastern Uintas to the northern Colorado mountains, where cooler air has already been settling in, snow levels are expected to drop further (>6,000 ft). Accumulations could near a foot along higher elevation portions of US-191 in the Uintas, and Rabbit Ears Pass has ~50% chance of exceeding 6" of accumulation. Elsewhere in the CWA, snow totals will be lesser, but most mountain ranges are expected to sit at 2-6" of snow by the time the sun rises on Tuesday. FREEZE POTENTIAL: This frigid push brings more than just another round of late season snow, but will also cause more freeze concerns. The coldest conditions will occur on Tuesday morning. Much of the Yampa Valley River Basin is expected to see a hard freeze as a result during this period. Though temperatures begin to warm back up beyond Tuesday, Wednesday morning will also likely see below freezing temperatures in the Yampa River Basin, thus a freeze watch has been issued for CO001 and CO002. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 532 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Showers continue at this hour with a few storms also noted. Main concerns will be gusty winds of 25 to 35 kts, especially near the stronger storms for the remainder of today. This convective activity will stratiform out later this evening. Widespread showers and a few storms will occur tomorrow as the low pressure system moves across the area. Many PROB30 groups remain in TAFs for all sites to account for this. Some gusty winds of 25 to 35kts are also expected as the system drifts through. MVFR conditions will be possible under the heavier showers though VFR should remain predominant. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from midnight Monday night to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ001-002. Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for COZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ004. UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Monday for UTZ023. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  218 FXUS62 KRAH 180451 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1250 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Minor tweaks to highs and heat index values through Wednesday, although the message remains the same. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 1240 PM Sunday... 1) Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. 2) Increasingly unsettled starting Wed night, with more seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... As of 1240 PM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. An unseasonably strong mid/low-level anticyclone and steep mid- level lapse rates (associated with a modified EML) sampled in the 12z RAOB data over Carolinas and portion of the Southeast, will keep conditions capped and void of precipitation amidst unseasonably moist deep-layer moisture in place. Warm temperatures though the mid/low-lvls will exceed the 90th percentile through at least Wednesday and support several days of hot conditions at the surface when temperatures should regularly eclipse 90 degrees by mid- afternoon. Given central NC's position within the described weather pattern above, there are minimal failure modes and reasonably high confidence in the forecast high temperatures through Wed. However, forecast confidence on mixing out of dew points in the afternoon is slightly lower and will result in fluctuations in the daily maximum heat index values. Leaning on experimental HeatRisk, widespread and prolonged Moderate Risk (level 2 out of 4) is expected through Wed. This level and duration of unseasonably warm temperatures will primarily affect anyone sensitive to the heat, but any outdoor activities in the sun during peak heating should be monitored closely for signs of heat exhaustion. Take breaks in the shade/indoors often and make sure adequate hydration is available. Reminder, the temperature forecast is the expected temperature in the shade and does not account for additive affects from direct sunlight. Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) does take this into account, but is sensitive to incoming solar radiation, and wind speed. If you would like to know more, please see weather.gov/rah/wbgt for more information. KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasingly unsettled starting Wed night, with more seasonable temperatures. The unseasonably strong ridge will gradually weaken and lose its grip on the Carolinas and portions of the Southeast as the mid/low-lvl anticyclone settles back over Bermuda by mid-week. The mid/upper level trough axis well become elongated across the CONUS as the northern wave progressively rides the International Border to the north and a southern portion gradually pinches off over southern Plains into the weekend. Our first chance for rain may come as early as Wed evening in the northwest Piedmont, but more likely Thurs into Fri as a weak to moderately unstable airmass will precede a backdoor cold front as it shifts across the area Thurs afternoon/evening. Showers and some isolated storms will be possible along the front, given favorable diurnal passage as of the latest forecast, with weak 925mb FGEN and low/mid-lvl WAA atop the front should support a period of light stratiform rain in its wake into Fri, potentially setting up a brief classical-CAD into Fri. The surface high will be very transitory across the northern Mid-Atlantic and should not sustain classical CAD into the weekend. Fri afternoon/night should see a transition back to a southerly flow regime. This should set the stage for a more typical early summertime pattern for diurnal showers/storms during the afternoon/evening focused around the sea-breeze and terrain circulations. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1250 AM Monday... TAF period: With high pressure offshore, the forecast should be quiet with VFR almost a certainty. The one exception will be around sunrise at FAY, where yesterday there was an MVFR ceiling for about 90 minutes, and vertical soundings show this should be a possibility again this morning. Otherwise, conditions should be mostly clear with southwest wind. Outlook: MVFR ceilings will be possible briefly at FAY and RWI Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, otherwise dry VFR conditions are forecast through Wednesday. The chance of rain will increase from northwest to southeast Wednesday night, with restrictions and showers expected Thursday and Friday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911 May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022 May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018 May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022 May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS AVIATION...Green  183 FXUS66 KPQR 180450 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 950 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion... .SYNOPSIS...Dry and benign weather is expected across the region through much of the next week as high pressure builds over the Northeast Pacific, bringing a warming trend. Weak systems aloft may bring enhanced cloud cover on some days, but rain chances are minimal. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Saturday night...Concerns for hazardous weather are minimal through the next week. There is high confidence that upper-level ridging and surface high pressure will build over the Northeast Pacific, with increasing uncertainty in the amplitude and position of the upper ridge later in the forecast. Early in the period, while the ridge is centered well offshore, upper shortwaves within northwesterly flow aloft may produce enhanced cloud cover, but chances for rainfall remain 5% or less through the middle of the week. On clearer nights, areas of fog are most likely to develop within sheltered valleys. As the ridge axis shifts east, temperatures will trend upward through at least Thursday, reaching the 60s along the coast and upper 70s to around 80 degrees along the I-5 corridor. Later in the forecast period, uncertainty in the evolution and possible break-down of upper-level ridging introduces a similar uncertainty in forecast temperatures. Highs are most likely to continue in the 60s to mid 70s, but the spread of possible outcomes becomes wider: chances of reaching 80 degrees along the I-5 corridor are generally 15-45% Friday and Saturday, but there are also 10-25% chances of remaining below 70 degrees. The next opportunity for widespread rain holds off until late next weekend when there is greater consensus that the ridge breaks down. -36 && .AVIATION...Currently as of 04Z Mon, dry and mostly VFR conditions throughout the airspace. While VFR conditions will continue through at least 06Z Tue for most terminals, low stratus from the northwest has begun to push into KAST, which will continue to bring low-end MVFR CIGs until around 17-19Z Mon (50-70% chance of MVFR CIGs). One exception, there is a 10-20% chance for low stratus formation (MVFR CIGs) between 12-17Z Mon at KPDX and KTTD. Expect winds to stay northerly to northwesterly through at least 06Z Tue, generally light until 17-19Z Mon, then 11-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt along the coast and 8-12 kt inland until 02-04Z Tue. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR conditions through at least 06Z Tue. North to northwest winds around 5-8 kt will weaken towards 07-09Z Mon, becoming light and variable overnight, then increasing to 8-10 kt by 22-23Z Mon. There is a 10-20% chance for low stratus formation (MVFR CIGs) between 12-17Z Mon. ~12 && .MARINE...Northerlies are expected to persist through much of next week as the summer-like pattern settles in. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon and evening periods as a surface thermal trough strengthens over the southern Oregon coast. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the coastal waters south of Cape Foulweather OR through 3 AM Monday for gusts up to 25 kt. Similar conditions are expected Monday afternoon and evening. A series of upper level disturbances are expected to move over the region during the middle of the week, supporting chances for stronger winds for all marine zones. Seas around 6-9 feet are expected into the middle of the work week. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Columbia River Bar in effect between 4 and 8 AM Monday morning for strong ebb currents which will produce hazardous conditions to small craft. Strong ebb currents are possible during the morning hours each day this week. -19/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  228 FXUS63 KIND 180452 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1252 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm through Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s - Scattered severe storms possible both Monday and Tuesday with damaging winds, large hail and localized flooding - Storms will end Wednesday as the front shifts south, but unsettled weather may return late week into next weekend && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments needed to match observations. Expect quiet weather conditions through the overnight period with surface and upper ridging across central Indiana. Mostly clear skies will allow for diurnal cooling though southerly flow should still keep lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Surface Analysis early this afternoon shows low pressure over western KS. A warm front extended NE across IA to southern MI ahead of this low. Strong high pressure was found near the Carolinas. This was resulting in warmer southerly flow across Central Indiana, and temperatures were rising toward the lower 80s. Dewpoints were high also with this air mass, in the the 60s. Central Indiana was solidly in the warm sector. Aloft water vapor shows a moderately amplified pattern over the CONUS with a deep trough over the Rockies and moderate ridging in place from the southeastern states through the Great Lakes to western Ontario. This was resulting in mainly a SW flow of warmer air across Indiana, arriving from the desert southwest. A short wave within this flow was found over WI, pushing NE and spreading shower over WI. Convective temperatures have been reached as GOES19 shows widespread CU development across Central Indiana and radar remains quiet. Tonight... Quiet weather is expected tonight as Indiana will remain under the influence of the strong high pressure to the southeast, and remain in the warm sector. Forecast soundings overnight show a dry column, and afternoon CU will be lost as daytime heating diminishes. Look for decreasing clouds this evening followed by mostly clear skies. High dewpoints are also in place. as dewpoints remain in the mid 60s, and a moderate pressure gradient remains in place overnight, overnight low temperatures will only fall to the mid and upper 60s. Monday and Monday Night... An even warmer day is expected on Monday along with high chances for showers and thunderstorms. Models how a short wave pushing through the upper flow along with some tropical southerly flow aloft. This in combination with daytime heating and warm and humid airmass suggests a good situation for afternoon convection. HRRR shows an area of thunderstorms poised to push across Central Indiana through the afternoon showing a significant cold pool temperature drop in its wake by later afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show attainable convective temperatures with CAPE values over 1600 J/KG. Given these elements, will aim for a dry morning but will include high chances for afternoon showers and storms. Some storms could be severe with straight line wind damage. Look for high temperatures in the middle 80s. Showers and storms will exit the area on Monday night with only the far SE parts of Central possibly having lingering showers from 00Z- 01Z. Forecast soundings over night show dry air within the lower levels associated with a cold pool along with a return to southerly winds as the synoptic southerly, warm sector flow takes over. Lows on Monday night should be similar to the previous night, in the middle to upper 60s. Tuesday... More chances for severe weather will be in play on Tuesday afternoon andTuesday night. Indiana will still be within the warm sector, as a wave within the SW flow aloft pushes from the plains toward the Ohio Valley. Again Forecast soundings show a favorable column for storms with CAPE over 1700 J/KG and moderate wind shear in place. A stronger cold front will also pushing also pushing across Indiana on Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, providing forcing. Ahead of the front, providing forcing will also be a moderate LLJ of 40-50 knts. Thus confidence is high for another round of showers and storms, again some of which could be severe, with damaging straight line winds as the main threat. The front is expected to reach near the Ohio river near 00Z, thus Tuesday night pops will be considerably lower, although clouds and very light stratiform showers or sprinkles will be possible in the wake of the front, particularly in southern parts of Central Indiana. Wednesday through Sunday... Wednesday... Clouds will be lingering across the area on Wednesday morning in the wake of Tuesday night/s cold front. Forecast soundings show plentiful lower level saturation, but subsidence arrives through the day as high pressure builds to the northwest. This will overall lead to the arrival of dry weather through the afternoon and into the evening. Will keep any precip mentions contained to the morning hours. With the arrival of a cooler air mass, Highs in the upper 60s to around 70 are expected. Thursday...Forecast soundings on Thursday remain dry as strong high pressure moves through the Great Lakes, providing a cooler and dry easterly surface flow across Central Indiana. Will continue a dry forecast and partly cloudy skies. Friday...Chances for rain will return again on Friday afternoon into Friday Night. The previous surface high will have exited to the east, allowing a return flow of a warmer and more humid airmass. As the front passes, a weak wave will be pushing through the Great Lakes, and the cold front will sag across Indiana. These ingredients are enough to include some chances for showers and thunderstorms. Saturday and Sunday...Models show mainly zonal flow in place aloft on Saturday and Sunday. Higher confidence for dry weather is present on Saturday as Friday's front departs and high pressure over the upper midwest begins to influence Indiana. This high looks to maintain control over Indiana on Saturday into Sunday. However, winds become more southerly on Sunday allowing a bit more moisture to arrive. Early Forecast soundings show an inverted V sounding with afternoon CAPE over 1500 J/KG. Given this, afternoon diurnal convection cannot be ruled out and pops will need to be included. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the 70s, with warmer highs around 80 on Sunday. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1252 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Impacts: - LLWS lasting through daybreak at KHUF and KLAF - Peak wind gusts at 25 to 30kts today - A line of severe thunderstorms expected during the afternoon with showers continuing into the evening Discussion: Subsidence over the region early this morning leading to mainly clear skies. Surface winds had diminished to 10kts or less courtesy of the nocturnal inversion but strong winds above the inversion within the boundary layer will maintain marginal LLWS focused primarily at KHUF and KLAF through daybreak. A large area of convection extending from the upper Mississippi Valley southwest into the central Plains will track east through the morning likely weakening before restrengthening this afternoon as it interacts with a warm and humid airmass over central Indiana. Expect an intense line of storms likely carrying a threat for damaging winds to move across the terminals during the 17 to 21Z timeframe. Restrictions to IFR and lower will accompany the line. Scattered convection should linger into the evening before gradually diminishing in coverage. Windy conditions will develop quickly after daybreak with peak gusts at 25 to 30kts prior to storms arriving in the afternoon. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...Melo AVIATION...Ryan DISCUSSION...Puma  248 FXUS63 KUNR 180452 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1052 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of rain, with snow in Black Hills, is likely later tonight into Monday. - Much colder to start the week but warmer temps return by late week. - Low-end chances for rain return later this week. && .DISCUSSION...(Tonight Through Sunday) Issued at 1051 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Upper air analysis depicts upper trof digging into the Intermountain West with southwest flow across the Northern Plains. Water vapor imagery shows moisture associated with our next system making its way into the area. Precip chances will increase overnight across northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and southwestern SD as this system approaches from the southwest. Precip will overspread the region Monday as band of 850-700mb FGEN and plenty of available moisture sets up over much of the CWA. Expecting mainly rain over the western SD plains with snow over the Black Hills. Northeastern WY could see snow to start out with with a change over to rain in the afternoon as the day warms up. There's still some uncertainty as to where the strongest forcing (and therefore the highest precip amounts) will be, right now it looks like the greatest precip totals will be across the Northern Black Hills and southwestern SD into the western SD plains with total QPF amounts of up to 0.25 to 0.4 inches are likely. Froude numbers of around 1 and moist, northerly flow will support upslope snow across the northern Black Hills. However, given the time of year and the fact that the snow is going to be falling during the day, snow accumulations (especially on roadways) may be limited by melting. Therefore, anticipating slushy accumulations of up to 3-5", mainly on grassy sfcs and in the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Northeastern WY could also see light snow accumulations with this system though, again, the time of year and the fact that this will be occuring during the daytime will limit overall snow totals. Expecting around a trace to up to 2 inches with the highest amounts across southern Campbell County. Regardless of final snow amounts, the main thing to note is that much of the area will receive some much needed moisture. Below normal temps expected through early this week with lows tonight, Monday, and Tuesday nights dropping into the 20s to 30s. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for northeastern WY for early this morning as temps are expected to drop into the upper 20s. Additional Frost/Freeze headlines may be needed for Monday and Tuesday nights, but will hold off on issuance for now. Shortwave ridging develops by the mid-week and kick off a gradual warming trend for the rest of the week. Approaching upper trof then brings precip chances back to the CWA for the late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 523 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Leftover showers with local MVFR conditions over south-central SD will wane this evening. VFR conditions over northeastern WY/western SD will change after 18/06z as an area of rain (snow up high) develops leading to widespread IFR/MVFR conditions after 18/12z across the entire area. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WY...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 10 AM MDT Monday for WYZ054>056- 058>060. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong AVIATION...Helgeson  254 FXUS64 KMEG 180452 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1152 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - Hot and humid conditions are expected through Tuesday, with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in many locations. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Tuesday afternoon, with a low confidence severe weather threat. The main concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily from midweek through the remainder of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A relatively mild and calm overnight hour is progressing across the Mid-South with temperatures spanning the mid to upper 70s. After some isolated showers and thunderstorms generally west of the MS River earlier this evening, all of the activity has diminished. Into tomorrow, an upper-level trough will begin to deepen through the Rockies, shifting our area into a primarily southwesterly flow regime. This will allow for additional moisture to return to the area, with a scattered chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms mainly north of I-40 by the afternoon. In addition, temperatures will remain well above-normal in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. A notable pattern shift will come on Tuesday as the Mid-South will transition into a wet pattern for the foreseeable future. This pattern will set the stage for a series of shortwaves to traverse the region through the remainder of the week as well as a cold front that will pass through late Tuesday into Wednesday. This frontal boundary is expected to stall just south of the area, keeping us in this pattern through at least the end of the work week. Jumping back to Tuesday, portions of the Mid-South are currently outlook in the Slight Risk (2/5) category from the Storm Prediction Center, primarily for damaging wind gusts and large hail. The better set-up synoptically will likely remain to the west and north of our area, but depending on how things evolve through the day on Tuesday, we are not necessarily out of the woods. As additional guidance comes into range, most are painting the picture of MLCAPE values over 2,000 j/kg with steep surface level lapse rates. The LLJ associated with the system does appear to split to our north, aiding to keep shear values on the lower end of things. With all of this in mind, the main question will be if the line that develops to our northwest will be able to maintain its strength as it approaches the area, or if it will become outflow dominant. The majority of CAMs do have the line losing strength as it approaches the area, with it continuing to weaken as it moves southeast / east. This would not be surprising as our instability begins to plummet in the evening. Greater clarity on the evolution of Tuesday will be coming as we get additional CAM guidance in range, but for now, there is generally low confidence in this potential event across the Mid-South and most of the stronger storms would be confined to locations generally along and west of the MS River. By Wednesday, with the stalled frontal boundary to our south, expect for this wet weather pattern to continue with scattered to likely PoPs each day. High temperatures will back off a few degrees through midweek, but will likely begin to climb again into next weekend. There is not a strong signal for any additional severe weather currently, but this will be something to watch over the next few days with the overall pattern. In terms of rainfall amounts over the next several days, the majority of guidance does have the Mid-South in the 90th percentile for our PWAT values throughout this entire period. If the environment were able to capitalize on this over multiple days, this could certainly bring heavy rainfall for some locations and a flooding concern depending where the boundary ultimately sets up. Right now, 2 to 3" of rainfall between Tuesday and Saturday seems like the most likely solution, but LREF guidance does have a 30-40% chance of some locations reaching over 3". This will be something to keep an eye on over the next few days as we get additional CAM guidance. For those wondering when we will break out of this weather pattern, it likely will not be until the weekend at the earliest. However, this pattern could very well last into early next week with no clear end in sight with the guidance currently. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the current TAF period. The one area of uncertainty currently is with some scattered -SHRA near sunrise, with an MVFR cig deck. Right now, if this were to impact any terminals it would likely be JBR, so a PROB30 grouping was included for this reason. Otherwise, generally southerly winds prevail with occasional gusts reaching 20 to 25 kts through the daylight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with minRH values remaining above 40%. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the Mid-South beginning on Tuesday through the remainder of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...CMA  319 FXUS64 KHUN 180455 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1155 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly in northeast Alabama Monday - Low to medium chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms returning late Tuesday, then medium to high chances (40-80%) for showers and thunderstorms each day, from Wednesday through next weekend && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight and Monday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Late this evening, satellite imagery and surface observations indicate an area of outflow from previous convection over Georgia moving into eastern Alabama. Besides brief gusty winds ~15-20 mph, a narrow band of cu/stratocu along the outflow boundary has produced a few showers, but those have been south/southeast of our area. It does not appear that showers will develop in NE Alabama at this time, but wanted to mention the boundary anyway as a brief, mild increase in SERLY winds may occur atop the plateau especially. Otherwise, satellite imagery indicates largely translucent high cirrus streaming into the area from the west, which could curb temperature falls a little. Nevertheless, lows tonight are still expected to fall to the low/mid 60s by daybreak Monday. For Monday, a plume of enhanced moisture on the western edge of the sub-tropical ridge will move a little further into AL, although highest moisture content is expected to be to our south. Nevertheless, a few showers/storms could develop particularly along the plume axis during peak heating in the afternoon. Vertical thermo and shear profiles are not supportive of any strong storm organization, with 0-6km bulk shear generally at or less than just 15 kts. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 From Monday night into Wednesday, the broad upr ridge will continue to hold sway across the Southeast, with deep SW-W flow remaining across the TN Valley. A trough in the Intermountain West into the North/Central Plains will remain nearly steady initially, but become increasingly positively tilted and deamplify as short waves round its base and move NEWRD. Essentially, the sub-tropical ridge will maintain dominance over much of the Southeast CONUS and westward into the Southern Plains, keeping the trough from advancing. However, a low-level boundary will make inroads towards the mid-South by mid-week, while SWRLY flow along the trough/ridge interface edges closer to the area. The result will be increased instability across our area with higher dew points and added dynamic forcing by late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase to low/medium during this period, with better chances in NW portions of the area closer to the better forcing. With a continued lack of deep layer shear, and modest thermo profiles, the activity will be more akin to general thunderstorm activity late Tuesday into Wednesday. Increased dew points will create warmer feeling conditions overall, but increased clouds and shower activity will make for lower max temperatures during the day especially on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 This pattern will continue largely unabated from Wednesday night into the weekend, with a broad summer-like subtropical ridge centered near Bermuda and deep SWRLY flow persisting across the TN Valley. A series of shortwaves are expected to ride along the trough/ridge interface across the region and bring bouts of increased shower/storm activity. Timing this is difficult, as the distinct nature of these shortwaves is difficult to discern in the model guidance. Nevertheless, increased instability during the daytime will certainly act to regulate chances for showers/storms during the period. Thermo profiles during the Thurs-Friday period do not appear to change significantly, with generally moist- adiabatic type profiles in the increasing deep/humid airmass. PWs climbing to near 1.7 inches and only modest CAPEs and weak-modest shear would suggest the largest threat may be due to any localized flash flooding that could result, especially with the prospect for slow-moving training storms. Shear may increase a little into the weekend, but still would characterize as modest at best. Overall, this is reminiscent of a warm, early summer pattern with highs mostly in the 80s and warm nights with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KDW SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....KDW AVIATION...HC  348 FXUS63 KOAX 180455 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1155 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for more severe weather on Monday, mainly across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Large hail, damaging winds, strong tornadoes, and flash flooding will all be possible. - Cooler weather moves in on Tuesday with potential for morning frost for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday. - Another active pattern may set up going into next weekend with chances for more storms, and possibly severe weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The line of storms has cleared east of the area but much of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa remain under the stratiform rain shield with some embedded weak thunderstorms. This likely won't completely clear until closer to 7am Monday morning. Going into Monday we're going to be watching to see where the cold front stalls, which will help determine our area of potential severe weather Monday evening. Monday will start out cloudy, with scattered light rain showers across much of the area north and west of the cold front stalled across our area. Through the late morning into the afternoon we'll see clouds gradually clear in areas south and east of the cold front. Areas north of the cold front will stay cloudy. The upper-level shortwave arrives, kicking off storm initiation around 2-4PM. Storms that develop in the warm sector will have ample instability and shear to grow into discrete supercells with potential for large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes. Expect similar storm evolution, growing into a QLCS with embedded supercells, which exits our area by 10PM. Several CAMs show a second line of storms which develops around 8-9PM over our western counties and moves through potentially bringing another chance for severe hail and damaging winds. These storms will be elevated in nature, but may still have 1500 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE to work with. This second line clears by midnight, bringing an end to the long, several day stretch of severe weather. We'll see the cold front clear well to the south and east of our area by Tuesday, putting a cooler Canadian air mass in place across the region. Tuesday will start out cloudy once again, but really clear by the afternoon as high pressure builds over our area. High temperatures on Tuesday will only reach into the upper 50s to mid 60s. With clear skies and nearly calm winds, this lends to potential for frost early Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 30s for northeast Nebraska to low 40s across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Cooler weather holds into Wednesday though we do see a reversal to southerly winds and start to advect moisture back into the region. An upper-level shortwave could potentially bring a few showers to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the ensembles haven't picked up on this latest change in the deterministic guidance. In any case, this wouldn't be anything impactful. A better chance for showers and storms moves in Thursday as the longwave trough that's been nearly stationary over the western US shifts eastward toward our area. With temperatures still in the sixties for highs, I wouldn't anticipate much of a severe weather threat with this system for our area. Temperatures start to rebound on Friday though as we see enhanced warm air advection ahead of a deepening surface low which develops on the lee side of the Rockies over eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Depending on the track of this system, we could potentially see more active weather next weekend with several chances for storms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A line of severe thunderstorms is observed at this hour from near KOFK to KJYR to KHJH. These storms have a history of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The line will continue progressing eastward this evening, eventually turning into more of a damaging wind threat as it approaches KOMA and KLNK. Have continued mentions of -TSRA at terminals this evening, refining timing at KOMA with the line expected to arrive by 01z per latest model guidance. Expect frequent updates and amendments. Background winds will switch to the west northwest once the line moves through, and remaining at 12 kts or less after 06z. Ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR and IFR at terminals tonight behind the line of storms and persist through much of the TAF cycle. After 20z, will see more redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms, with chances over 50% late in the TAF period. These storms will once again become strong to severe with all hazards possible. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NEZ065-066-068-078- 088>093. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Castillo  420 FXUS65 KPUB 180457 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1057 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible northern portions of the southeast plains this afternoon and evening - Critical fire weather conditions continue this evening for the SE mtns/southern plains and return along the southern CO border on Monday with conditions getting close to PDS Red Flag Warning criteria across Baca county - Strong winds southern areas on Monday with blowing dust and a low end chance of high wind criteria for the San Luis Valley and southern I-25 corridor - Snow late tonight through Monday for the Continental Divide mountains and Pikes Peak region with some light accumulations possible - Frost or Freeze possible for the southeast plains Monday night, especially El Paso and Kiowa counties && .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Update to allow today's Red Flag Warning to expire as scheduled. Winds have begun to weaken and have turned northeasterly across much of the warned area. This will continue to help humidity values to improve through the rest of this evening. The warning was allowed to expire as scheduled. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Southwest winds continue to increase across southern portions of the forecast area this afternoon with critical fire weather conditions being met along the southern I-25 corridor. Models have trended farther south with the retreating cold front across the southeast plains which calls into question whether Red Flag conditions will materialize across northeast portions of the Red Flag Warning area. Given HREF is still showing around a 30-50% chance of criteria being met across western and southern portions of Kiowa County, have opted to keep the Red Flag Warning intact for now. There may also be some dry lightning and gusty outflows from thunderstorms that could also cause issues across northern sections. Meanwhile, with the digging upper trough out west, and at least some displacement of the frontal boundary back northward, CAMS still suggest best potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be across El Paso county. NAMNest does kick off a couple cells across our far eastern counties which race off to the northeast and diminish, so can't really rule out an isolated severe storm north of highway 50, though cap is holding things at bay farther east for the time being. CAPE up to 1000 J/kg and deep layer shears around 50 kts suggest hail up to around 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary risks, with LCLs looking a little high and low level helicity not as great as farther north and east. Will need to monitor the northern portions of the southeast plains closely, as storms could get stronger if they can develop. Right now, the threat looks too conditional. Front surges back into the southeast plains tonight enhanced by thunderstorm outflows to the north. There could be some showers and isolated strong thunderstorms along the boundary with some elevated CAPE, but overall CAMS are not too enthused with this potential even though pattern recognition suggests some low end potential. After midnight, winds begin to shift around from the east with low clouds, stratus and stratiform rain developing along the eastern slopes of the southeast mountains and Pikes Peak region towards morning. Closed low across southern UT fills and lifts out across northwest CO on Monday putting southern CO under the windy sector across the interior valleys and southern portions of the southeast plains. Challenge will be how far north will the front mix as the lee side surface low ejects from northeast NM into southwest KS. Consensus of HREF members is to keep the Red Flag conditions tied to the southern-most border counties with any northward push to the front being defeated by reinforced cooling from precipitation as the system cross the mountains into the adjacent plains. Humidities could get very low across Baca county and we are flirting with PDS Red Flag Criteria. The ingredient coming up short is the winds, with gusts not quite making the 55 mph threshold. 12z HREF probabilities of this are 0%, while QMD NBM only shows up to 20%. So have hoisted Red Flags for now and will let later shifts upgrade Baca to a PDS Red Flag if later runs support this. None the less, extreme fire danger will be in place on Monday across Baca county which will make control of any wildfires extremely difficult. Also concerned about near high wind criteria and blowing dust across the San Luis Valley. NBM shows this but none of the HREF members or the HREF probabilities depict above 0% chance of 58 mph wind gusts. It could get close as the trough axis passes by and downward forcing maximizes. Timing for this is around 16z (10 AM mountain time) for the San Luis Valley. This may loft some dust and reduce visibilities. Any showers that survive as they push off the higher terrain to the west could goose winds up further and result in some locally intense blowing dust. Will need to keep an eye on this for potential Dust Storm Warnings Monday morning. Wind gusts up to 55 mph may spread into the southern I-25 corridor (where humidity levels stay above the Red Flag PDS threshold of 9%) but again, 12z HREF probs for high winds (58 mph or greater) remains around 0% and even NBM probs are 10% or less. So no high wind highlights look necessary at this point but will be re-assessed with next suite of model runs. To the north of the frontal boundary across the plains it will be a cool day with a cloudy start, and clouds may not clear out of El Paso county until late in the day. Stability behind the front on the plains will be high, so any convection that develops over the mountains will likely push eastward and diminish as the forcing from the system lifts off to the northeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Once the trough passes by, the cold front will drop through all of the plains again bringing better humidity recovery and much cooler temperatures. In fact, most of the southeast plains may be vulnerable to a frost or freeze late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Northern sections are more likely and have issued Freeze Watches for El Paso and Kiowa counties. Farther south some lingering low clouds may help keep temperatures just above freezing though any partial clearing may leave some areas vulnerable to frost potential. Otherwise cool upslope flow will continue on Tuesday across the plains. Instability develops over the mountains for some isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms but these will diminish quickly as they move off into the more stable airmass east of the mountains. More troughing out west moves across CO on Wednesday ramping up precipitation chances across the southeast mountains and plains Wed afternoon and night as the better forcing moves across. Active northwest flow continues through the rest of the week with daily shower and thunderstorm chances across the area. Another drying trend sets in for next weekend as we get some minor ridging and the northern stream storm track shifts northward a bit. Temperatures will climb back into the 80s to near 90 across the plains for next weekend though winds remain fairly light. -KT .Aviation... Gusty southerly winds will pick up at all three terminals this afternoon with directions more southeasterly initially at KCOS and KPUB and more southwesterly at KALS. Wind gusts up to 30 to 35 kts will be possible this afternoon. -TSRA will be possible in and near KCOS which could erratic wind directions from thunderstorm outflows in the afternoon with gusts up to 40 kts possible. This will reinforce a cold front which will drop southward bringing strong north to northeast winds into both KCOS and KPUB between 01-02z. Gusts up to 40 kts will be possible. Meanwhile, winds will gradually slacken off at KALS during the evening hours but settle from a southerly direction around 10-15 kts most of the night. Stratus will fill in rapidly at KCOS and KPUB around 06z with -SHRA and BR possible after 08z as cigs drop into the IFR category. Once winds shift from the southeast, KCOS could see LIFR conditions develop and persist through the tail end of the valid TAF period. KALS will see winds pick up around 13Z from the south to southwest. Gusts up to 45 kts will be possible with restrictions to vis possible in BLDU Monday morning. -KT && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1056 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 KCOS and KPUB: MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through the majority of this TAF period due to lowered ceiling heights. With that said though, both KCOS and KPUB, but especially KPUB, will have a period of VFR condition ceiling heights during Monday afternoon. Looking at winds, they are expected to remain around and less than 10 knots tonight, though will quickly increase heading into the late morning and early afternoon hours as a potent storm system swings over the region. Winds are expected to remain elevated then into Monday evening, though will slowly start to lessen in magnitude. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected tonight, though KCOS may experience drizzle to light rain as upslope winds develop. Then during the early afternoon hours, a band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to push eastward off of the higher terrain and across the TAF sites, bringing periods of lower visibility. KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, though a brief period of MVFR conditions will be possible Monday morning into the afternoon hours due to blowing dust within the San Luis Valley. Looking at winds, they will remain around 10-13 knots tonight, and increase quickly early Monday morning as a potent storm system passes over. In addition, showers may push eastward off the higher terrain and across the San Luis Valley, and a shower impacting the TAF site can not be ruled out. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail, with mid to high level clouds persisting into Monday afternoon, and then starting to clear Monday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Near PDS Red Flag criteria will be possible Monday across Baca county where humidity levels will approach 6%. Winds may come up shy of the 55 mph gusts needed for criteria to be met, with most models suggesting 50 mph may be the top wind gusts for this event. Regardless, the combination of dry fuels, and windy and dry conditions will lead to a period of Extreme Fire Weather conditions until the front brings better humidity recoveries back into the area between 6 PM and 9 PM Monday evening. A sharp wind shift from the north with gusts up to 40 mph will accompany the front Monday evening. Las Animas will also see strong winds and low humidity but humidity levels will not be as low, staying around 15% near the mountains where the stronger gusts up to 55 mph will be possible around mid day. Blowing dust and poor visibility will be a concern for both areas once the winds kick up. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for COZ084-085-095-096. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for COZ230-233- 237. && $$ UPDATE...EHR SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...SIMCOE FIRE WEATHER...KT  491 FXUS61 KBGM 180459 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1259 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strengthening ridge of high pressure will be our main feature early this week leading to above average temperatures and increasing humidity through Tuesday. A few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible both Monday and Tuesday. 2) A cold front will bring the potential for stronger thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, then cooler conditions return for the second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A frontal boundary currently north of Lakes Erie and Ontario and across far northern NY is expected to dip a bit farther south this evening across north-central NY before retreating back northward as a warm front later tonight into early tomorrow. This front can lead to a couple of isolated showers, especially late tonight north of the NYS Thruway. As the front retreats, southwesterly flow develops tonight through Tuesday as surface high pressure becomes anchored around Bermuda and an upper level ridge centered off the Southeast Coast strengthens and builds northward leading to strong warm air advection and increasing dew points. All this put together will give us a taste of summer-like conditions, through Tuesday. Highs tomorrow and Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s area-wide and can be record-challenging. The record high for both days at KBGM is 87, KAVP's record highs are 93 tomorrow and 92 Tuesday, and for KSYR the record highs are 90 and 92 respectively. NBM guidance continues to look too warm compared to nearly all model guidance due to a known seasonal bias, so the trend to lower temperatures a bit from the model blend was continued, but highs were kept near or just above the warmest guidance given the favorable synoptic set up for temperatures to overachieve. However, confidence in those temperatures is a bit mixed. There is the potential for some scattered clouds and isolated showers or thunderstorms to pop up during the afternoon and early evening hours tomorrow and Tuesday as a couple of weak waves embedded in the flow around the ridge move through, which could result in high temperatures being held back slightly. If little in the way of convection develops, temperatures could potentially overachieve, and that could be the case especially tomorrow as some model soundings do show a cap in place. As mentioned, dew points will be on the rise, reaching the low to mid 60s tomorrow and Tuesday, with some spots even reaching the upper 60s Tuesday afternoon, so the humidity will be noticeable. Some guidance continues to be more aggressive with the increase dew points, especially tomorrow night into Tuesday, so this is something to keep an eye on. KEY MESSAGE 2... The next opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms will be with a cold front moving into the region on Wednesday. As of now, the bulk of the convection looks to be from midday through the afternoon, and while there remains some uncertainty with regards to the exact timing, the best instability seems to be setting up across NE PA through portions of the Southern Tier of NY and into the southern Catskills. This coincides with the warmest temperatures Wednesday where highs are expected to range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s, while noticeably cooler air returns to the Finger Lakes region through the Tug Hill with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. If everything can come together, some locally strong to severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out for the afternoon and early evening, especially across NE PA and the southern Catskills. So far deterministic and ensemble guidance shows a general 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE (with higher values from the NAM), about 30 to 40 knots of shear and decent low-level lapse rates in this area. High temperatures are expected to fall back into the 60s in the wake of the front for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 06z TAF period. There is a small chance that ELM/ITH/SYR/RME could see brief MVFR - IFR fog during the predawn hours, but probability of occurrence is low at this point, so it was left out of the forecast. With dewpoints in the upper 50s, if the temperature can drop quickly enough, then some brief patchy fog could occur, but as mentioned, this probability is low and will pick up in the lower atmosphere through the early morning hours, mixing out any saturation that may occur at the surface. Outlook: Monday night...Mainly VFR; slight chance for afternoon isolated showers/thunderstorms with brief MVFR/IFR restriction possible. Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief restrictions. Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves into the area. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DK AVIATION...KL  430 FXUS63 KOAX 180457 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1157 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for more severe weather on Monday, mainly across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Large hail, damaging winds, strong tornadoes, and flash flooding will all be possible. - Cooler weather moves in on Tuesday with potential for morning frost for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday. - Another active pattern may set up going into next weekend with chances for more storms, and possibly severe weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The line of storms has cleared east of the area but much of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa remain under the stratiform rain shield with some embedded weak thunderstorms. This likely won't completely clear until closer to 7am Monday morning. Going into Monday we're going to be watching to see where the cold front stalls, which will help determine our area of potential severe weather Monday evening. Monday will start out cloudy, with scattered light rain showers across much of the area north and west of the cold front stalled across our area. Through the late morning into the afternoon we'll see clouds gradually clear in areas south and east of the cold front. Areas north of the cold front will stay cloudy. The upper-level shortwave arrives, kicking off storm initiation around 2-4PM. Storms that develop in the warm sector will have ample instability and shear to grow into discrete supercells with potential for large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes. Expect similar storm evolution, growing into a QLCS with embedded supercells, which exits our area by 10PM. Several CAMs show a second line of storms which develops around 8-9PM over our western counties and moves through potentially bringing another chance for severe hail and damaging winds. These storms will be elevated in nature, but may still have 1500 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE to work with. This second line clears by midnight, bringing an end to the long, several day stretch of severe weather. We'll see the cold front clear well to the south and east of our area by Tuesday, putting a cooler Canadian air mass in place across the region. Tuesday will start out cloudy once again, but really clear by the afternoon as high pressure builds over our area. High temperatures on Tuesday will only reach into the upper 50s to mid 60s. With clear skies and nearly calm winds, this lends to potential for frost early Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 30s for northeast Nebraska to low 40s across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Cooler weather holds into Wednesday though we do see a reversal to southerly winds and start to advect moisture back into the region. An upper-level shortwave could potentially bring a few showers to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the ensembles haven't picked up on this latest change in the deterministic guidance. In any case, this wouldn't be anything impactful. A better chance for showers and storms moves in Thursday as the longwave trough that's been nearly stationary over the western US shifts eastward toward our area. With temperatures still in the sixties for highs, I wouldn't anticipate much of a severe weather threat with this system for our area. Temperatures start to rebound on Friday though as we see enhanced warm air advection ahead of a deepening surface low which develops on the lee side of the Rockies over eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Depending on the track of this system, we could potentially see more active weather next weekend with several chances for storms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A line of storms continues to exit the region to the east late this evening. North winds and low ceilings have overspread the region behind these storms. OFK and LNK have fallen to MVFR with OMA expected to fall over the next hour or two. Winds remain out of the north tonight. A further reduction to IFR ceilings appears likely at OFK around 9Z and at OMA and LNK closer to 13Z. Our next low pressure system will quickly lift northeast out of the southern Great Plains during the afternoon. This is anticipated to result in another round of widespread thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are anticipated with large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possible. Current timing has storms in the vicinity of LNK between 21-23Z with OFK and OMA following shortly after between approximately 22Z and 00Z. Very heavy rainfall will reduce visibility at times with the potential for gusty and erratic winds also. A cold front pushes through the region behind these storms. Gusty northwest winds and MVFR ceilings develop as the cold front moves east across the area. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NEZ065-066-068-078- 088>093. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Chehak  474 FXUS65 KSLC 180459 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1059 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A quite unseasonably cold storm system will result in temperatures 10-20F below normal by Monday along with accumulating mountain and mountain valley snow Sunday night into Monday, significant for the Western Uinta mountains and in southwest Wyoming. - Freeze conditions will impact many Utah valleys outside of the Wasatch Front Monday and Tuesday mornings. Areas that will see the greatest impacts include west central Utah, southwest Utah, Cache Valley, the western Uinta Basin, and the Sanpete and Sevier valleys. && .DISCUSSION...Cyclogenesis is ongoing across the Utah as a trough pushes an unseasonably cold airmass through the area while tapping into spring moisture. This is creating a large swath of precipitation stretching from the southwest corner of Utah up through Uinta county Wyoming. As the low ejects to the northeast precipitation will end from southwest to northeast between sunrise and noon tomorrow. Freezing temperatures are expected for some valleys tonight and again tomorrow night. Mean troughing will remain overhead through the end of the week with another chance of precip across the north with a shortwave on Thursday. A drying and warming trend will continue late week into the weekend. Currently, snow levels have fallen as low as 5500 feet across southwest Utah. Areas from Cedar City up through Cove Fort could see accumulating snow, primarily on non-paved surfaces. However, given the overnight nature and any higher intensity rates there could be brief slush ups on area roads through the morning hours. Precipitation should be wrapping up by sunrise across areas of southwest Utah. The area of greatest impacts for accumulating snow will be across Uinta County, Wyoming and the western Uintas where snow is currently falling with temperatures at or below freezing. Snow totals in these areas will range from 2 to 6 inches across the lower elevations near Evanston to over a foot possible along the north slopes of the Uintas as northerly flow enhances snowfall rates overnight. Portions of the high Uintas could see as much as 2 feet of snow. For northern Utah, light rain is slowly filling into the area and will continue overnight before tapering off tomorrow morning. QPF totals will likely only amount to a few tenths of an inch as we sit along a west to east moisture gradient with the highest QPF totals across the terrain to the east of the Wasatch Front. This will translate to 6 to 12 inches of heavy wet snow across the high terrain of the mountains stretching from southern Utah up through the Wasatch mountains. Lesser amounts are expected up in the Bear Rivers where totals are close to 2 to 4 inches. Freezing temperatures are expected tonight across southwest Utah/central valleys and the Wasatch Back, but cloud cover and moisture will keep these temperatures from dipping too far below freezing. As skies begin to clear tomorrow expect even colder temperatures tomorrow night with additional locations such as Cache Valley and the western Uinta Basin getting in on the freezing temperatures. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Periods of rain are expected to continue through much of the night before tapering off after 13z Monday morning. Conditions are expected to largely remain low-end VFR in the rain, except for a 40% chance of periods of MVFR during heavier precipitation mainly between 09-11z. Winds will be light northerly or variable (owing to precipitation) through around 08z before the gradient tightens to support stronger northerlies again, with will continue through Monday afternoon. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Fairly widespread precipitation is expected to continue across much of southern and central Utah into Monday morning, and across northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming through at least Monday afternoon. Snow levels will likely fall to between 5-6kft MSL, lowest late tonight through Monday morning. Terminals located above the snow level will likely see IFR/MVFR conditions in snow, while those below the snow level will see largely VFR conditions with periodic MVFR in areas of heavier rain. Otherwise, winds will be largely northerly for much of the area to northeasterly across southwest Wyoming and northeast Utah. && .FIRE WEATHER...Widespread precipitation across the area in the form of snow down to 5000 feet and rain at lower elevations will continue overnight with elevated relative humidities. Northerly and northwesterly winds will remain elevated through much of the day tomorrow before gradually decreasing. RH will remain well above 15% for the entire area through the day before gradually drying throughout the week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Monday for UTZ108-115-116-118-119- 122. Freeze Warning from midnight Monday night to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ108-114>116-118-119-122. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT Monday night for UTZ112. WY...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT Monday night for WYZ021. && $$ PUBLIC...Mahan AVIATION...Cheng FIRE WEATHER...Mahan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity