658 FXUS62 KMFL 180501 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 101 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1257 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through at least Tuesday evening as breezy easterly winds prevail. - Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue this evening as inland activity gradually wanes in intensity and coverage. Rain chances will remain elevated over the next several days. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 224 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Increased moisture is expected to filter into the region from the Caribbean through the beginning of the week. Florida will find itself in the middle of two regions of upper-level ridging, one over the southern Gulf and one along the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile a non-tropical disturbance of low pressure will begin to develop over the Atlantic waters just east of the Bahamas. This will serve to increase chances for showers across the Atlantic waters and funnel in more low level moisture towards the peninsula. At the surface, pressure gradients will tighten over the next couple days across the Atlantic as an area of high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas strengthens to around 1026 mb. This will result in stronger easterly flow across the region, with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 28 mph. This stronger easterly flow will keep the Gulf breeze pinned further west across southwest Florida during the afternoon on Sunday and even more so on Monday. Spotty showers will develop during the morning hours along the Gulfstream and Florida bay, moving westward across the region. However, most thunderstorm activity will focus along the sea breeze convergence over interior and southwest Florida during the afternoon. THe HRRR performed pretty well for Saturday's activity, and with a similar environment for Sunday, feeling fairly confident that the solution depicting 75% to 80% PoPs across the Gulf coast will play out. However, one factor that continues to be under-modeled by forecast soundings is the amount of dry air in the mid levels. PWATs are expected to climb to near 1.8 inches for Sunday and remain at that level or slightly below for Monday. Due to nearby ridging aloft, would expect some mid-level subsidence to once again suppress thunderstorm growth from becoming strong. Yet, increasing MidRH values should be more conducive for greater coverage of showers and higher rainfall amounts. Once again, steep low level laps rates and plenty of CAPE (near 3000 J/kg) will be favorable for a few stronger storms, with gusty winds and locally heavy downpours being the main concern. Unlike Saturday, there looks to be a little bit better shear available for storms, between 15 to 25 kts, and with 500 mb temperatures cooling down to -9 or -10 C, would not be surprised if a few isolated severe storms develop for both Sunday and Monday. With steering flow aloft being relatively weak and nearly opposite to the low level wind pattern, some of these storms could be slow moving. This would contribute to some heavier localized downpours of 4 to 5 inches. For the most part, HREF ensemble PMMs are depicting 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall across interior and southwest Florida each afternoon from storm activity. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) is expected for the beginning of the week. With slightly greater relative humidity, heat indices will climb a few degrees area wide. Southwest Florida will see heat indices in the lower 100s, while eastern areas will be in the upper 90s. With storm activity in southwest Florida looking to favor the latter half of the afternoon, temperatures should be able to climbinto the mid 90s for parts of Collier county. Overall, temperatures look to be slightly above average for this time of year. The NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool indicates low chances of 20% to 30% for observing Major (level 3 of 4) heat related impacts for parts of the Dade and Broward metros through Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Longwave ridging will be the dominant pattern aloft for the eastern CONUS during the middle portion of the week. Florida will find itself in between an H5 centroid to its west over the southern Gulf and an H5 centroid to its east near Bermuda. Within the overall ridging pattern, ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement of showing a cut off low meandering around the northern Caribbean just east of the Bahamas. This area of low pressure will provide increased forcing for storms over the Atlantic waters as several lobes of vorticity advect westward near the vicinity of the Florida coastline. Florida will remain under rich moisture through the period, but some deeper pockets look to raise PWATs to near 1.8 inches, which is within the 75th percentile for this time of year. At the surface, winds will remain mostly easterly, but wind speeds will be slightly weaker than in the beginning of the week as pressure gradients relax across the eastern seaboard. As a result of this predominant easterly flow, the Gulf breeze won't be able to advance as far east. This will result in most afternoon thunderstorm activity favoring interior and portions of southwest Florida each day. Overall, PoPs will generally be in the 30% to 40% range across the peninsula each day, with higher 55% to 65% PoPs along the sea breeze convergence zones. Main threats will be frequent lightning, locally heavy downpours, and gusty winds. Despite the cutoff low nearby, 500 mb heights will actually be between 586 to 589 dm across South Florida, which is near to slightly above average for this time of year. This will in turn lead to slightly above normal temperatures area wide, with high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. With moisture staying steady throughout the week, heat indices will remain in the upper 90s and lower 100s through the period as well. Zooming into the forecast a little bit, diurnal heating will drive most of these high temperatures each afternoon. But, with increased chances of showers moving onshore from the Gulfstream during the morning (particularly for the middle part of the week), cloud cover and rain may keep things cooler over certain spots during the day. Conversely, increased cloud cover and rain during the nighttime hours may suppress radiational cooling and keep things slightly warmer overnight. For the most part, widespread Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) is expected each day. However, long range ensembles are indicating that pressure heights will increase slightly as longwave ridging shifts east and the cut off low dissolves. This will result in warmer temperatures for the weekend, with the NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool showing a 40 to 50 percent chance of Major heat impacts for the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Inland SHRA/TSRA continues to wane in coverage while new developing scattered SHRA has begun to increase in coverage along the east coast of South Florida once again. Breezy easterly winds will lessen after sunset but remain easterly across the region overnight with SHRA coverage forecast to increase once again along the east coast of South Florida between 10-12z Monday before activity pushes inland by 17-19z. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Easterly breezes will strengthen through the beginning of the week along the Atlantic, with sustained wind speeds of 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts likely. A weaker westerly breeze will be likely along the immediate Gulf each afternoon, but the predominant wind regime shifts easterly over the Gulf as well. These breezier conditions look to create some slightly choppier conditions, but waters are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Sustained winds look to peak near 20 kts on Monday, with only a low 10% chance of winds being greater than 20 kts. Isolated weak showers are possible for the Gulfstream waters through the morning. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will favor the Gulf coast, beginning in the Everglades and shifting northwestward through the early evening. Chances of precipitation are expected to increase across Atlantic waters heading into the middle of the week. Atlantic seas will be 2- 4 feet through the start of the week, while the Gulf will remain 2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Breezier conditions will lead to continued high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches to start the week. Guidance continues to show increasing confidence for High Risk of Rip Currents to persist through the middle of the week across the Atlantic coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 78 88 77 / 40 30 40 30 West Kendall 89 75 89 74 / 40 30 40 20 Opa-Locka 89 77 89 77 / 30 30 40 30 Homestead 88 77 88 77 / 40 40 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 86 78 86 78 / 30 40 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 86 77 86 77 / 30 40 40 30 Pembroke Pines 90 78 90 78 / 30 30 40 30 West Palm Beach 86 77 86 77 / 30 30 50 20 Boca Raton 86 78 86 78 / 30 40 50 30 Naples 93 74 93 74 / 60 10 80 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMP LONG TERM....NMP AVIATION...Hadi  577 FXUS63 KMKX 180500 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Decaying squall line with gusty winds to move into south central and se WI during the early morning hours. Marginal probabilities for severe wind gusts over said region. - Another round of showers and storms late tonight into Tuesday with a potential for strong to severe storms. - Cool and drier weather then returns for midweek. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Today through Tuesday: The nrn portion of the QLCS over ne IA and se MN has recently produced severe wind gusts but gradual weakening is expected as it moves into greater CIN. Farther to the south, the gust front is outrunning the convection but sporadic wind gusts of 40-50 mph are still occurring. For srn WI, gusty winds and scattered storms will continue to initiate along and behind the gust front during the early morning hours. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/KG will be present but with high LFCs at 650-700 MB. The high LFCs should aid in the further dissipation of the organized line and/or transitioning to elevated scattered storms. During this time, a wave of low pressure will track across MN to wrn Lake Superior and be the catalyst to shifting the warm front nwd into central WI. Thus the low stratus and areas of fog toward central WI will come to an end during the early morning hours. Some showers and storms will likely linger through later this morning, but capping will set in again and will aid in some scattering of clouds and temps nearing 80F for the afternoon. Another wave of low pressure will develop from the central Great Plains to nrn WI from late Mon afternoon until 12Z Tue, while the main shortwave trough tracks from the central Rockies to nw WI. The actual trailing cold front will likely not pass until Tue, but there is some confidence in another round of showers and storms for mainly after midnight (early Tue AM) as another MCS moves into srn WI from the west. The MCS may already have reached the dissipating stage at this time, but there is uncertainty with the timing of the evolution. Once again, damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Finally, there may be some shower and storm development with the cold frontal passage Tue afternoon with severe probs are low at this time. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday night through Sunday: Gusty northwest winds remain in place through Tuesday night as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Winds gradually diminish into Wednesday as high pressure settles into the region. Temperatures are expected to be back into the 60s and low 70s for highs and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s through midweek. High pressure remains dominant through Thursday before propagating eastward into the Northeast U.S. Low pressure will begin to deepen in the lee of the Colorado Rockies, ejecting into the Plains Friday morning. With high pressure remaining over the Northeast, models are indicating a split low progression, with one portion of upper level energy propagating through the Lower Mississippi Valley along a Gulf humidity axis, and the other portion following the long wave pattern northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A few showers and thunderstorms may work their way in as early as Thursday night into Friday (15-25%), with more potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms into Friday night and Saturday as the cold front from the Midwest low phases with the southern low. Confidence in timing and placement remains in question due to model discrepancies, so maintained NBM probabilities for this update. Precipitation exits Saturday night as ridging begins to build back into the southern Wisconsin fromthe central Plains. Expect temperatures to return to the upper 70s and low 80s Sunday as winds shift to southerly, with additional chances for storms Sunday night into Monday. MH && .AVIATION... Issued 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Stratus below 1 kft and areas of fog are occurring toward central WI, but VFR conditions will return early this morning once the warm front passes to the north. Scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds will then move across much of srn WI during the early morning hours with some showers and storms continuing through late this morning. Sct-bkn040-060 clouds are expected during this time but areas of MVFR Cigs may occur. Another round of thunderstorms and gusty winds is then forecast late tnt with more MVFR Cigs possible. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A warm front will move from southern Lake Michigan to northern Lake Michigan this morning. East to northeast winds will become breezy out of the south. Areas of dense fog may occur at times until the front passes. Breezy south winds will then continue through today into Tuesday followed by a wind shift to the northwest late Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. High pressure and light and variable winds will then take hold from late Wednesday into Thursday. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from Sheboygan to North Point Lighthouse until 3 AM CDT today. The fog will dissipate once the warm front moves to the north, and south winds and milder temperatures arrive. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 3 AM Monday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  776 FXUS62 KILM 180503 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 103 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal flood advisory for Inland New Hanover county has expired. No coastal flood headlines are in effect. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Inland portions of the eastern Carolinas should see their longest heat wave of the year so far with 90 degree heat expected to continue through Thursday. 2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front stalls near the Carolinas. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Inland portions of the eastern Carolinas should see their longest heat wave of the year so far with 90 degree heat expected to continue through Thursday. A 590 dam upper ridge centered near the North Carolina coast is responsible for the sustained period of hot inland temperatures which began today and should last through Thursday. Sinking air below the upper ridge should create a deep warm and dry layer extending down through 700 and 850 mb. Models have maintained their 850 mb temp forecasts of +17C to 18C (at or above the 90th percentile climatological values for this time of year) which increases confidence in our forecast of 90+ degree heat continuing through Thursday for locations more than 25 miles inland. Our forecast is for an additional four days (Monday through Thursday) of 90+ degree heat inland. Assuming that Florence and Lumberton highs touch 90 degrees this afternoon, this five day streak would eclipse this year's earlier streak of four days of 90 degree temps recorded from April 15-18 in both Florence and Lumberton. Coastal portions of the Carolinas should remain significantly cooler than inland due to sustained south winds dragging air across nearshore water still near 70 degrees. The upper ridge will become more narrow with time as an upper low strengthens across the northern Bahamas Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature looks a lot like an early season TUTT low, but any enhanced convection or other sensible weather impacts should remain far to our south. The arrival of a surface cold front Thursday afternoon should end this heat wave with temperatures returning toward normal for the coming weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front stalls near the Carolinas. A warm and dry subsidence inversion should keep the forecast essentially dry through Thursday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could begin to develop inland as a cold front arrives Thursday afternoon. Relatively cool and stable southerly winds may help keep coastal areas dry. An interesting dichotomy develops among model guidance late in the week about how widespread convection may become across the area. GFS MOS guidance rain chances have really come down and confine any PoPs better than about 40 percent to the Elizabethtown-Lumberton-Bennettsville corridor close to where the front may stall Thursday night through Friday. South and east of this area PoPs are generally in the 20-40 percent range given lingering ridging and some dry air aloft. However ensemble-based NBM PoPs are much, much higher and would imply high rain chances (60-70 percent) Friday, Saturday, and Sunday even down near the coast. Model trends have been toward somewhat lower rain chances, especially at the coast, and I ultimately lean toward that idea. This should still be our best rain chance in almost a week, but significant rainfall chances will likely remain inland. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions this evening. Fog chances increase tonight with more humid low levels observed across the region today. Kept most of the fog east of I-95 and just inland from the coast where boundary layer winds will be higher. This puts southeast NC at a better chance of more significant restrictions overnight. Only exception was to maintain persistence at CRE from last night's tidal creek fog. Sea breeze should dominate after noon with gusts to 20 knots at the coast, mid-afternoon inland. Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Wednesday though morning fog potential should increase through Wednesday as low level moisture increases. An approaching front could bring restrictions in scattered showers and storms Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Through Monday...Within 20 NM, light S TO SE winds are expected through period with seas of 2 to 3 feet. From 20 to 60 NM out, generally expecting s winds less than 15 KT with seas of 3 feet. Monday night through Friday...Bermuda high pressure will remain over the western Atlantic through the period with generally light southerly winds expected. Seabreeze enhancement nearshore could locally increase nearshore wind speeds to around 15 knots from mid afternoon through early evening each day. A cold front will approach from the north Thursday night into Friday, but only a subset of the latest models show the boundary actually reaching the coastal waters. What may happen is southerly winds will back more southeasterly on Friday with some increase in the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Forecast confidence for Friday is certainly lower than for Monday night through Thursday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/21 KEY MESSAGES...TRA DISCUSSION...TRA AVIATION...21 MARINE...TRA/31  834 FXUS63 KGLD 180505 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1105 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Monday, more severe weather is expected during the afternoon and evening hours. All hazards are possible, and will generally favor eastern portions of the area. - Blowing dust will be possible with severe storms. Blowing dust may also occur Monday with wind gusts nearing 50 mph south of U.S. 40. - Early Tuesday morning, a freeze watch is in effect for Eastern Colorado where temperatures could drop into the mid 20s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 703 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 The remainder of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for today has been cancelled as the threat for widespread severe storms has ended. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 156 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Current observations show a large upper trough across most of the Rockies region with a large surface low roughly from the Panhandles region to North-Central Kansas. With this, most of the area is on the backside of the low and has been cloud covered through the morning. This has kept temperatures mainly in the 60s/70s with a few 80s around Highway 283 where the sun broke through a bit earlier. As the day progresses, a convergence zone remains forecast to develop near the Palmer Divide and ignite some storms that'll move east/northeast into and through the area. These storms would likely be quick and severe with mean wind around 30-40 mph from the southeast and corfidi downshear vectors nearing 70-100 kts. The likely start time is around 3-4pm MT and ending around 10-11pm CT. Going more into the severe potential, the early cloud cover is expected to lower the instability a bit. That being said, cloud cover is clearing in Eastern Colorado which will help us recover some instability before storms fire up. With a good amount of moisture available, MUCAPE could reach 1000-3000 J/kg as the afternoon and evening goes on. With Mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km, storms should be able to fire up and sustain themselves. A few more recent runs have suggested that there may be too much CIN that ends storms early, but still a 75% chance that storms push through. With effective shear around 60-70 kts, supercells are likely as long as they don't cluster and compete too much. This will lead to a chance for large hail again, mainly in the 1-2 inch range. Hail could reach 3 inches again, but much larger may be hard with the shear and wind speeds potentially being too strong and over shearing the storm. This may also hamper the tornado threat, though a well sustained supercell would have the potential to put down a long track tornado. Otherwise, quick spinups seem to be more likely. As for wind, most of the wind gusts are forecast to be in the 45-65 mph range, matching the forecast speed of the storms. The strong 75 mph+ gusts may be fewer and far between with an organized line not as likely to form. That being said, any good surge or outflow could produce wind gusts of 80-90 mph again, with 100 not out of the question due to the strong downshear vectors. The storms should largely favor along and north of I-70 again. Those south of I-70 may see storms develop if an outflow shoots out of the original storms and is able to trigger additional storms. Otherwise, the main concern for those south of I-70 would be blowing dust along a storm outflow. A similar scenario happened yesterday with the wall of dust, and conditions haven't changed that much to where it wouldn't happen. The only difference is that the early cloud cover may have hindered lower level lapse rates and lowered how much dust could be lofted. Once the storms leave the area tonight, cloudy skies are forecast as we still continue to wrap moisture into the areaaround the low. This could also develop fog, though winds increasing to around 15-20 mph should hinder dense fog development. Monday, part of the upper trough axis is forecast to push through the area and help push the current area of low pressure a bit further southeast. This should allow colder air and higher pressure to filter into the area, increasing winds to 15-30 mph with gusts of 35-50 mph. Thankfully, the risk for critical fire conditions has lowered with the increase in low level moisture available. The issue is that those who remain with little precipitation run the risk of blowing dust developing during the afternoon hours. Currently the chance is around 40-50%, and it could be a wall if the wind shift and strengthening is uniform as the low pushes off faster later in the day. A few showers and storms may form Monday night, cold air is forecast to continue advecting into the area from the north. This does lead to some concern for freezing temperatures to be reached with some guidance suggesting mid 20s are possible in Eastern Colorado. That being said, there could be some cloud cover and or enough surface moisture moving in that temperatures stay more in the mid to upper 30s. For now, a Freeze Watch has been issued for Eastern Colorado. Tuesday, the main trough axis is forecast to push off to the northeast while a separate wave detaches and remains near the Four Corners Region. This will not only help weaken the upper level flow, but weaken the pressure gradient as the high diffuses across the Plains. This should weaken the winds as the day goes along, with the wind generally remaining from the north. The lower level moisture should push out through the day, but not enough for RH to drop below 25 mph and cause critical fire weather concerns. Especially with temperatures forecast to be in the 50s and 60s. There is the potential for late in the day storms as a shortwave moves through the southwest flow and with mid to high level moisture being driven into the area. For now, storms are likely to be sub-severe and may not really even make it into Eastern Colorado from the higher terrain. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid to upper 30s Tuesday night with the higher level cloud cover over the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Wednesday, our region is forecast under a southwest upper-level flow with a weak trough developing west of the Rocky Mountains and a ridge building off the west coast. Wednesday will be cool and windy with high temperatures forecast in the 60s and wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph are possible west of Highway 27. Several embedded shortwaves will pass through the region bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The entire county warning area (CWA) has a Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 30-40% during the day Wednesday. PoPs increase in the evening to around 60-70% and persist overnight into Thursday for the southern CWA. Conditions remain unseasonably cool for Thursday with highs again forecast in the 60s. Our region remains in a southwest upper-level flow with embedded shortwaves passing through, so chances for showers and thunderstorms continue. Cooler temperatures and a mostly stable environment will likely keep and storms that develop sub- severe. Pops range from 30-60% Thursday overnight into Friday with the southern CWA on the higher end. Ensembles are in disagreement on when the aforementioned trough ejects eastward and takes us out of the persistent southwest flow, but it will likely move on after Friday. A slight warming trend begins Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Friday and 80s for Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain Friday through Saturdaywith PoPs around 20-30% for the eastern CWA as several shortwaves pass through the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1104 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Stratus is currently developing across the area as ceilings are forecast to drop to MVFR. A gradually drop to IFR is also forecast as well along with the potential for some light showers or drizzle overnight for each terminal. Confidence in the showers is around 20-30%. Stratus is forecast to continue for most if not all of the day for each terminal with perhaps a brief break around 00Z before returning again as the sun sets. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for COZ090>092. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...Trigg  858 FXUS64 KSHV 180506 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1206 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - A prolonged period of unsettled weather will bring both chances for severe weather and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall through most of the forecast period. - Impacts from thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain will generally range from gusty winds, hail, and possibly urban flash flooding. - Above normal temperatures to begin the work week will quickly trend below normal by mid and late week due to enhanced cloud cover and stormy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The upper level pattern at the time of this writing continues to be characterized by longwave troughing/cyclonic flow that extends from roughly the West Coast of the US and through the Rockies and into the Great Plains. Within this longwave trough exists a notable area of closed low pressure in the Great Basin vicinity, and can be easily detecting in water vapor imagery. Downstream from the longwave trough, a low-amplitude ridge is defined across the Southeastern US and into the Mid-Atlantic region. A look closer to the surface reveals an area of high pressure centered around Bermuda, with its ridge influence extending westward across the OH/TN Valleys and into the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains. A surface cyclone is detected near the OK/KS border, with a dryline located to its South across the TX panhandle and towards the Big Bend region. The above analysis places the Four State Region in deep SW aloft on the eastern flank of the longwave trough going into the overnight period tonight, with enhanced southerly low level flow streaming off the Gulf and making for a continued moist and unstable environment. Convection has recently sparked, likely aided in part by some warm air advection in the 850-700mb layer and perhaps the passage of some subtle vort maxes in the SW flow. This activity will wind down towards and after midnight, with an unseasonably warm night in store for the local area with lows in the low to mid 70s (with some areas hanging in the upper 70s). Monday will potentially be the driest day of the upcoming week, and really the forecast period. A cloudy and humid start should be anticipated. Isolated showers could be lingering across portions of the area, but coverage will wait to increase until daytime heating works in tandem with the moist and unstable conditions already in place. This should yield between 1000-2000J/kg of MLCAPE, possibly aided by subtle vort max activity. Without a distinct mechanism for large scale forcing in place on Monday, isolated single-cell activity can be expected, mainly carrying a threat for a brief period of small hail and gusty winds. A fairly tight synoptic scale pressure gradient throughout the day will yield breezy and gusty conditions area-wide on Monday, with areas across East Texas flirting with Wind Advisory Criteria. Currently do not think conditions will be widespread enough to warrant an advisory but near- term and/or real-time observations could dictate otherwise. A prolonged and very unsettled weather pattern will then take shape beginning Tuesday. A progressive northern stream shortwave trough across the Northern Great Plains within the longwave trough will help drive a cold front towards the local area on Tuesday. As the front propagates towards the area and eventually into the area during the afternoon and evening hours, it will encounter the very moist and unstable conditions present across our region. Lift along the front, along with the help of what appears to be a rather sufficient shortwave trough across Central TX looks to yield our next potential for severe weather. Ample instability and at least modest mid level lapse rates could lead to a wind and hail threat across the area. The lacking ingredient within this setup will be deep layer shear, which could inhibit updraft organization, however, there could still remain just enough to be problematic. By mid-week, this cold front will stall across the region. With rather good agreement amongst the ensemble solutions regarding the upper level pattern continuing to feature troughing off the Baja region, deep SW flow and a continued stream of H5 disturbances could promise decent potential for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall through the rest of the work week and likely even into the Memorial Day weekend. Where exactly the front stalls and where the most probable areas/regions of potential heavy rainfall within its vicinity is challenging to determine this far out. So the bottom line will emphasize that confidence is at least high in a prolonged period of unsettled weather and moderate to high rain and thunderstorm chances. Severe weather potential appears low, but this may change. Below normal temperatures can also be expected with the unsettled pattern, provided more cloud cover and anticipated periods of rainfall. CK && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently across NE TX into NW LA should continue flirting with a few terminals across SW AR and N LA for a few more hours but should show a weakening trend in both coverage and intensity the closer we get to sunrise. Otherwise, expect a return to MVFR ceilings to overspread our terminal sites overnight with those ceilings continuing through mid to late morning. Afterward, should see ceilings lifting and/or scattering out by late morning into the afternoon hours. Cannot rule out an isolated TSRA across our airspace with the aid of daytime heating continuing into the evening hours but coverage will not warrant a mention in this 06z package. Otherwise the gradient wind is another obstacle to deal with today with sustained SSE to S winds near 10- 16kt by mid morning with gusts once again near 30kts. Strongest gusts should be across our NE TX terminal locations where pressure gradient will be a little tighter. Those winds should begin decoupling after sunset Monday Evening. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Spotter activation is not expected through Monday, however, it may be needed on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 88 75 89 74 / 20 10 20 30 MLU 89 74 90 73 / 30 10 20 20 DEQ 86 73 88 72 / 20 20 20 30 TXK 88 75 90 74 / 20 20 20 30 ELD 87 73 88 72 / 20 20 20 20 TYR 89 76 89 75 / 20 20 10 30 GGG 89 75 89 75 / 20 20 10 30 LFK 88 75 89 75 / 20 20 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...13  996 FXUS64 KLUB 180509 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1209 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Critical to extremely critical fire danger will exist Monday afternoon across much of the region. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and off the Caprock, then again along an overnight front Monday into Tuesday. - Much cooler Tuesday through Friday with daily afternoon shower and thunderstorms throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 An upper level shortwave trough digging through the Desert Southwest will set up near the Four Corners regions early Monday morning, before translating into the Southern Plains by late Monday afternoon. Thus leading to the continuation of southwest flow aloft across the area. Increased speeds aloft are expected by Monday morning the upper level low inches closer to the region, with speeds around 40 to 50 knots, and up to 60+ knots within the H5 jet. Additionally, mid-level winds will also increase and overspread the Caprock regions as notable H7 and H8 wind maxima set up near the South Plains while a surface lows sets up over the northern Texas Panhandle. This will promote eastward mixing of a sharpening dryline across the area Monday afternoon, setting up across our most eastern column of counties, while temperatures climb into the mid to upper 90s and lower triple digits as breezy to near windy southwest flow continues. Three hour MSLP changes around 3mb to 4mb suggest winds will become near and/or in excess of wind advisory level criteria with speeds around 25 to 35 mph with potential gusts to 50 mph not out of the question. A wind advisory is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains from noon through 8 PM CDT Monday. East of the boundary, low- level moisture will be more robust, with dewpoint temperatures progged in the 50s and 60s. These dewpoints combined with hot temperatures will support moderate to strong instability across the Rolling Plains with soundings depicting MLCAPE amounts around 1500 J/kg. While weak large scale ascent may limit overall storm coverage across the CWA, with better forcing for ascent residing to our north, isolated thunderstorms will still be possible late Monday afternoon and evening where localized surface convergence is maximized along the dryline before it mixes east out of the area. West of the dryline, hot temperatures along with breezy to wind southwest winds and low relative humidity values will support extremely critical fire danger. Especially on the Caprock were RFTIs of 7 to 8 appear likely with ERCs ranging from the 70th to 95th percentiles. These conditions will promote the rapid spread of wildfires if any fire starts initiate Monday afternoon. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 10 PM Monday. By Monday night, the upper trough will moves through the Plains region sending an associated cold front into the region as the surface high dives southward. Most CAMs keep this front north of the area through the short term period, with the front moving into northern portions of the FA around 05Z Tuesday. Given the faster progression of the front in recent guidance, there is a chance this front speeds up and enters portions of the area before midnight. Nonetheless, an additional chance for thunderstorms will exist along the frontal boundary, primarily across our most eastern column of counties. However much of this will be based on the amount of residual moisture that resides in our area during this time frame. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issuedat 1048 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A much needed cool down is expected to start the extended forecast period as the cold front, previously mentioned above in the short term discussion, makes it's arrival into the Caprock regions. Most guidance has the cold front making its way through the southern portion of the FA just after daybreak Tuesday. As mentioned above, a chance for thunderstorms will exist along the frontal boundary, mainly across the Rolling Plains with chances waning through morning. Most precipitation chances will be dependent on the amount of moisture present during the time of the FROPA. If thunderstorms are able to develop, the potential for large hail will exist with forecast soundings depicting steep mid-leel lapse rates around 8 C/km and bulk shear magnitudes around 40 knots. Northerly winds will prevail through much of the morning Tuesday, before shifting more easterly Tuesday afternoon as the surface high shifts east and a surface low develops over central New Mexico. With a cooler airmass in place and upslope component to the winds will allow for much cooler highs Tuesday in the 70s and 80s. This easterly component to the winds will be maintained through much of the mid-week period, allowing for the cooler highs to remain in place through Thursday, before a modest warm-up begins to start the weekend. There remains a small window for a few showers and thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon and evening, as the stalled FROPA begins to retreat back northward closer to the region. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, but if this boundary retreats back into the southern portions of the FA Tuesday afternoon and evening we could see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. As for precipitation the remainder of the week, longwave troughing will encompass much of the western CONUS throughout the week, allowing for southwest flow to prevail over the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base of the trough while perturbations simultaneously track through the main flow. In addition to the upslope component to the winds allowing for increased moisture transport from the Gulf into the region may be enough for daily chances for shower and thunderstorm chances each afternoon Wednesday through Friday. Ensemble guidance is beginning to highlight the potential for heavy rainfall Wednesday, when we see the best forcing for ascent and increased low to mid-level moisture with PWATs well above the 90th percentile normal 9around an inch to an inch and a half) for this time of year. However, it is a bit too early to get into specifics given the lack of uniformity amongst model guidance at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail. There is a low chance for MVFR CIGs at CDS between 11Z and 15Z, but confidence is currently too low for a mention in this TAF cycle. Trends will be monitored through the night and updated as needed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across much of the Caprock regions Monday afternoon. Breezy to low- end windy southwest winds are expected to increase to around 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph with the highest speeds fixated across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. As temperatures warm into the mid to upper 90s and lower triple digits, relative humidity values will begin to drop into the lower single digits during the afternoon. Across the Caprock is where we expect the highest threat for extremely critical fire danger to exist with RFTIs around 7 to 8. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM CDT Monday through 10 PM CDT Monday evening. A Wind Advisory is also in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains from noon till 8 PM CDT Monday. Do your part and avoid activities that may cause a spark to help prevent the rapid spread of wildfires. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>037-039>043. Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>031-033>036. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...51  359 FXUS64 KHGX 180512 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1212 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, breezy, and muggy conditions will continue for the next several days. - Isolated showers/storms possible overnight, isolated to scattered showers/storms on Monday, followed by increasing chances of showers and storms for the rest of the week. - Multiple rounds of showers/storms expected beginning late Tuesday through the end of the work week. A few storms could be strong to severe and multiple rounds of rainfall could lead to minor/street flooding. - Elevated winds, seas, tides, and rip current risk in the bay/Gulf waters and beaches through at least midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 I'm gonna go ahead and lead in with the main takeaways for this discussion: have an umbrella/poncho with you throughout the week, remain weather aware by staying up to date on the latest forecasts, and have multiple ways to receive alerts of impactful weather. That's your big three for this week. A band of showers is setting up over Central Texas and is gradually pushing into Southeast Texas this evening. PW values remain well above the 90th percentile (~1.79") and when you pair that with a strengthening LLJ (30-40 kt) and embedded shortwaves, you get *vaguely gestures at radar reflectivity* that. Some of the latest 00Z CAM guidance indicates the potential for isolated embedded thunderstorms overnight as well. Based on the instability and lifting mechanism in place (the LLJ), this is an entirely plausible outcome (and not only because it's already occuring). This is most likely to occur near or north of I-10 during the overnight hours, so don't be surprised if you wake up before your alarm to some rumbles of thunder...Happy Monday! Monday will feature isolated to scattered showers with a non-zero chance of an isolated storm or two in the afternoon mainly north of I-10. Outside of the rain chances, it's gonna be warm and muggy. High temperatures will continue to top out in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values peaking in the upper 90s/low 100s. A rinse and repeat for Tuesday, but definitely more so on the rinse part of that as we head into late Tuesday. The wet pattern that we're moving into Tuesday and beyond is courtesy of a longwave trough that is becoming established over the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will lead to embedded shortwaves passing through the area with the first notable one being on late Tuesday. Exact timing is still uncertain (as always when trying to time shortwaves), but we're currently looking at Tuesday evening for the first round of showers/storms. This shortwave is expected to result in a line of showers/storms, or if you want to be fancy you can call it a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that pushes into the area on Tuesday evening. A few of these storms could be strong to severe and be capable of producing strong wind gusts and hail. As a result, majority of Southeast Texas is outlined in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather on Tuesday. The severe weather outlook may change with the overnight update, so be sure to stay tuned to the forecast. The line of storms is visible at the very end of 00Z CAMs and we can see convection beginning to approach the Brazos Valley right around 7pm Tuesday evening. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the week with the most likely mechanism being more MCS's especially along a nearby frontal boundary that makes its closest approach around midweek. Where this boundary lingers/stalls will be key to who gets the most amount of rainfall this week. With PW values remaining near or above the 90th percentile, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. There is additional details down below in the Hydrology section. A brief summary of it is, the rounds of rain earlier in the week will help to prime the soils. This means that rounds of rain later in the week could result in a quicker transition to runoff which increases the potential for minor/street flooding. We've already seen in recent events over the past few weeks that PW values in this range can result in 3-4+"/hr rainfall rates in the heaviest downpours. As a result, all of Southeast Texas is outlined in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) Tuesday through at least Thursday. I say at least because with rain chances sticking around into the weekend, there is decent potential that at least portions of the area will remain outlined in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Speaking of Thursday, a portion of the Brazos Valley is outlined in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Thursday. Training convection along the lingering frontal boundary cannot be ruled out. Be sure to stay tuned to the forecast for the latest details. As far as rainfall totals go, we continue to anticipate widespread totals of 2-4" with isolated amounts of 4-6+". This is for the Tuesday through Friday timeframe, and those higher end amounts are still most likely to occur north of I-10. The frontal boundary continues to linger going into the weekend alongside a steady dose of passing shortwaves and elevated PW values, so chances for showers/storms continue going into the weekend. With daily chances for moderate to heavy rainfall, we'll be keeping an eye on area rivers/streams...that's another hint to check out the Hydrology section below. In case you wanted to know more about the temperature forecast, there's a downward trend going into midweek with the increasing rain chances (surprise surprise). We go from high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s on Monday and Tuesday to the low to mid 80s midweek and beyond. The temperature forecast will likely change based on timing and location of these rounds of showers/storms. I( can mention though that we'll at least flirt with record high minimum temperatures early this week with low temperatures only bottoming out in the upper 70s/low 80s. Yeah...some of y'all might not drop below 80 overnight. Now that's what I call humid! Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 For the 18/00 TAF update, the atmospheric pattern remains on a similar track with MVFR cigs (BKN020s) predominant in the southeast Texas airspace through most of all periods. As of the start of the period, MVFR cigs have already crept as far north as KCXO with KCLL and KUTS not far behind. MVFR cigs will continue through 18/15Z before starting to slowly lift (near-shore terminals will most likely keep MVFR cigs through the full period). By 19/02Z, another round of MVFR cigs is expected to reach KIAH, while robust southerly surface winds continue across the airspace at 10-15 kts, gusting to 20-25 kts. Cassel && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Tuesday morning as moderate onshore winds and elevated seas continue to persist. Winds and seas gradually subside on Tuesday. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated beginning late Tuesday through at least the end of the work week. Some of these storms could produce strong wind gusts, especially if they push offshore in the form of a line of storms. Outside of the storms, onshore winds will persist generally in the 10-15 kt range after Tuesday. The other topic of interest for mariners is the continued high risk of rip currents and potential for minor coastal flooding during times of high tide. Water levels at Galveston Bay Entrance reached 3.3 ft MLLW during high tide on Sunday morning. P-ETSS guidance continues to indicate water levels being slightly higher than that during high tide Monday morning peaking closer to 3.5 ft MLLW. Water levels during high tide on Tuesday morning are currently expected to peak just above 3.0 ft MLLW. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Monday morning and will transition to a Rip Current Statement afterwards through Tuesday evening (for now). Expect the rip current risk to remain high through at least midweek. Batiste && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Anticipating multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall Tuesday through at least Friday. These rounds are expected to mostly be in the form of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's). The exact timing of these storms can be a bit tricky as mesoscale factors play a key role (hence the name), but we anticipate the first round to come late Tuesday. With PW values near or above the 90th percentile (~1.79"), rainfall rates will likely exceed 3-4"/hr in the heaviest downpours. While these lines of storms are typically progressive, the rainfall received early in the week is expected to prime the soils for rounds later in the week. Saturated soils leads to a quicker transition to runoff which brings an increased risk of minor/street flooding. We continue to anticipate widespread rainfall totals of 2-4" with isolated higher amounts (4-6+" possible). The highest rainfall totals are still expected to occur north of I-10. This rainfall will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. Action to minor stage flooding is the most likely outcome, but cannot entirely rule out isolated instances of moderate stage flooding depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 90 78 89 72 / 10 20 60 70 Houston (IAH) 89 79 89 75 / 20 10 40 70 Galveston (GLS) 86 81 86 79 / 20 10 20 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ436>439. High Rip Current Risk from 10 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Cassel MARINE...Batiste  347 FXUS66 KHNX 180512 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1012 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Low relative humidities in the lower elevations of central California brings at least a moderate risk of Fire Danger this week. 2. Red Flag Warning in effect for the San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills of the Coastal Range through Monday evening with a Major Risk of Fire Danger expected to continue due to increased winds and low relative humidity. 3. Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect until Monday morning for San Luis Reservoir. 4. Practice safety around area lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... Seasonal temperatures with breezy conditions will continue until Monday for the region as we remain on the back side of the inside-slider trough. Although, winds have been decreasing in the Kern County mountains and desert. We will let the wind advisories and the High Wind Warning expire later this evening in these areas. However, increased winds (gusts 30-40 mph) have been locally occurring in parts of the Sierra Nevada and foothills, including near North Fork/Bass Lake, per a local weather spotter. This will pick up a bit overnight tonight, but decrease by early Monday morning. The probability for a 40 mph gust in this particular area is about 50-60 percent through early Monday morning. Winds combined with low humidity will continue on Monday across the SJ Valley and adjacent West Side Hills/Coastal Ranges, although the winds won't be quite as strong compared to today and yesterday. Thus, will allow the Red Flag Warning to continue until Monday evening for these locations. A marked warmup occurs Tuesday through the end of the week, as highs touch 90 degrees in much of the Central Valley. The Kern County desert locations will see a return of 90 degree readings beginning Wednesday. Highs in the warmest locations reach the mid to upper 90s by Thursday, and temperatures will remain steady or a touch lower until next weekend. Moderate to high probabilities exist for widespread readings at least 95 degrees in both the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County desert for this period. Triple digit heat has a low probability to occur in these areas Thursday and Friday, but cannot be ruled out in the warmest locations. Unfortunately, daytime humidity will lower a bit more with the warming during the latter part of this week. Thus, the risk for large grass fires will continue for much of this week with the potential for rapid spread. Overall, a warm and dry pattern will occur for much of this coming week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low minimum relative humidity (RH) values combined with breezy conditions in the San Joaquin Valley and the West Side Hills along the Coastal Range continues the threat for fast-moving grass fires on Monday. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for this area until 8 PM Monday as minimum RH values under 15 percent are anticipated and will continue a Major Risk for Fire Danger. Although, winds will not be quite as strong on Monday compared to the previous couple of days. Drier and warmer air is expected to move into central California later this week with minimum RH values at lower elevations expected less 15 percent for multiple days in a row. At least an elevated risk for fire weather persists this week. In addition, poor to moderate overnight humidity recovery will also occur across the region for the latter part of this week. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ298-299. High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ338. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ337-339. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ579-580. Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday for CAZ300. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ332. && $$ BSO weather.gov/hanford  445 FXUS63 KUNR 180514 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1114 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of rain, with snow in Black Hills, is likely later tonight into Monday. - Much colder to start the week but warmer temps return by late week. - Low-end chances for rain return later this week. && .DISCUSSION...(Tonight Through Sunday) Issued at 1051 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Upper air analysis depicts upper trof digging into the Intermountain West with southwest flow across the Northern Plains. Water vapor imagery shows moisture associated with our next system making its way into the area. Precip chances will increase overnight across northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and southwestern SD as this system approaches from the southwest. Precip will overspread the region Monday as band of 850-700mb FGEN and plenty of available moisture sets up over much of the CWA. Expecting mainly rain over the western SD plains with snow over the Black Hills. Northeastern WY could see snow to start out with with a change over to rain in the afternoon as the day warms up. There's still some uncertainty as to where the strongest forcing (and therefore the highest precip amounts) will be, right now it looks like the greatest precip totals will be across the Northern Black Hills and southwestern SD into the western SD plains with total QPF amounts of up to 0.25 to 0.4 inches are likely. Froude numbers of around 1 and moist, northerly flow will support upslope snow across the northern Black Hills. However, given the time of year and the fact that the snow is going to be falling during the day, snow accumulations (especially on roadways) may be limited by melting. Therefore, anticipating slushy accumulations of up to 3-5", mainly on grassy sfcs and in the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Northeastern WY could also see light snow accumulations with this system though, again, the time of year and the fact that this will be occurring during the daytime will limit overall snow totals. Expecting around a trace to up to 2 inches with the highest amounts across southern Campbell County. Regardless of final snow amounts, the main thing to note is that much of the area will receive some much needed moisture. Below normal temps expected through early this week with lows tonight, Monday, and Tuesday nights dropping into the 20s to 30s. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for northeastern WY for early this morning as temps are expected to drop into the upper 20s. Additional Frost/Freeze headlines may be needed for Monday and Tuesday nights, but will hold off on issuance for now. Shortwave ridging develops by the mid-week and kick off a gradual warming trend for the rest of the week. Approaching upper trof then brings precip chances back to the CWA for the late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night) Issued At 1111 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 A disturbance will bring deteriorating flight conditions to the entire forecast area by 18/12z with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions developing. Local LIFR conditions may occur in/near the Black Hills due to snow. Conditions will slowly improve after 18/22z. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WY...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 10 AM MDT Monday for WYZ054>056- 058>060. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong AVIATION...Helgeson  595 FXUS63 KMQT 180518 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 118 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer than normal temperatures continue through early this week. - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight through Tuesday. Some of the storms could be severe, especially over the southern half of the U.P. on Monday. Heavy rainfall is also possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 A deep trough is analyzed digging through the Northern Rockies with sharpening southwesterly flow across the Plains. Within this flow, MCV is currently observed moving through Wisconsin with another impulse over North Dakota. For our forecast area, this has resulted in high clouds streaming into the region and light rain lifting into Menominee/Delta counties where proximity to the MCV to the south is smallest. Temperatures have been observed in the 40s and 50s so far, under easterly winds in the west, and northerly central and east. The main forecasting challenge continues to be the results of the deep trough lifting across the Plains and its subsequent impact on MCS development, the ongoing MCV along and just to the north of a northward lifting warm front, and a surface low lifting northeast through the forecast area Monday night into early Tuesday. The ongoing MCV and a warm front are expected to lift northeast through Wisconsin today, with the front lifting into the forecast area tonight. This will result in showers gradually lifting into the southern and eastern UP associated with the MCV and then thunderstorms this evening/tonight. Instability doesn't increase significantly until around 0z tonight. Elevated MUCAPE eventually builds to 1000-1500j/kg while 0-6km bulk shear builds to 40-50kts late evening and tonight, which should sustain showers and thunderstorms associated with any upstream development closer to the front; however, strong to severe potential will be limited by marginal effective shear. Should a stronger storm occur, primary hazards will be damaging winds and hail. Latest HREF suggests the best timing for stronger storms focuses on this evening in Menominee County and then mainly in the west after midnight tonight. PWATs are also expected to climb to 1-1.5 inches across the region. Model soundings suggest a deep warm layer, with 1-1.2k feet freezing heights. Additionally, MBE velocities suggests some training potential. WPC positions the region within a marginal risk for flash flooding because of the risk posed by these. Early Monday morning, the front will lift through, positioning the forecast area within the warm sector for the day. This will support gradual destabilization as we warm into the upper 70s to low 80s and dewpoints climb into the 60s. Afternoon northwesterly flow and possible lake breeze may limit warming along Lake Superior. Latest CAMs favor a mostly dry day, save for any diurnally, lake breeze, or outflow (from convection well to the south) enhanced convection occuring interior west/south-central by afternoon. Latest guidance suggests timing for the second wave is most likely Monday evening/overnight and will come with a better organized thunderstorm potential and higher risk for severe weather. SPC continues to include the CWA within their 15% risk region (slight risk), with primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds. WPC also continues to maintain a marginal risk for flash flooding with this second wave. Showers and gusty winds will linger Tuesday as the surface low and trough aloft push through the region. Thunderstorm potential looks to be isolated to the east in the morning. Sprawling high pressure builds in by evening, keeping the region dry through at least Friday morning. Daytime highs Wednesday look to peak in the 50s south and west, and 40s north-central and east. Thursday and Friday will trend back toward normal 60s, but the east may only top out in the 50s both days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 117 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Poor flying conditions continue through the period as we remain under the influence of a warm front that stalls out over the area during the daytime today. This will keep cigs low (mainly LIFR), with vis being a problem during mainly the overnight hours via BR/FG. That being said, the SHRA/TSRA seen over the terminals the next 24 hours will help to keep vis and cigs down as well. We could see an improvement to as high as MVFR over SAW this afternoon as the winds turn from S/SW to N/NE'rly. That being said, expect a return to LIFR conditions by the evening over SAW. Expect an hour or two and a few more hours of LLWS to return to IWD and SAW early this morning in the warm air regime as the low's center moves into Lake Superior. With the low's passage today, expect the winds across the terminals to shift from the E/SE early this morning to SW later this morning; expect a shift to the N/NE by late this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Guidance continues to bring a low pressure into the Great Lakes Monday night, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient today and cold air advection Tuesday behind the low. The former will support a period of northeasterly gales in the western portions of Lake Superior this afternoon and evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase tonight, then linger until the low passes Tuesday morning. The first wave comes tonight across the east and then the west late tonight, both potentially lingering into Monday morning. Strong to severe storms can't be ruled out, the lack of effective shear within the cloud layer suggests the risk is marginal. The next organized cluster lifts through Monday night preceded by a warm and moist airmass. This will again support strong to severe storm potential and rainfall may be the trigger needed for overnight fog. In the wake of the low Tuesday, a second period of gales looks possible across eastern Lake Superior; although, ensemble guidance suggests the probability in the east being 25% or less. Once the winds settle Tuesday night/Wednesday, light winds are favored through at least Friday morning. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTP AVIATION...TAP MARINE...JTP  599 FXUS66 KLOX 180518 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1018 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 .SYNOPSIS...17/1018 PM. Warmer temperatures are expected this week with some locally breezy Santa Ana winds Monday morning. The warmest day will be Wednesday with slow cooling the rest of the week along with a return of night and morning low clouds and fog. && .SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...17/1015 PM. ***UPDATE*** High temperatures varied across the region today, with warm upper 70s to low 80s over the interior, and cooler 60s to 70s elsewhere. Highs only reached the upper 50s for many spots along the Central Coast where gusty northwest winds limited warming. For tonight, expecting redevelopment of marine layer clouds favoring LA County, however clouds may be short-lived as easterly winds start up. Looking at a good 3 to 6 degree warming trend for coasts and valley areas as offshore flow develops. Currently, no significant changes needed for the forecast with wind advisories starting late tonight over the mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. A warming trend is expected through Wednesday. ***From Previous Discussion*** West to northwest winds are starting to decrease as gradients trend offshore through Monday morning. Still expecting some gusty northwest winds in the Antelope Valley through this evening as well as southwest Santa Barbara County. Otherwise, the offshore push will peak Monday morning with gradients around -2.5mb to the east. This probably won't be enough to completely remove the marine layer influence out of LA/Ventura Counties so probably little to no Santa Ana winds at lower elevations. But in the LA Mountains above 3000 feet some gusts to around 40 mph are possible Monday morning. High temperatures most everywhere Monday will see a bump from 5-10 degrees. A similar light offshore pattern continues Tuesday and Wednesday but with slowly decreasing wind support aloft, which was already not that strong to begin with. 90% of the warming for the week will be on Monday, except in the Antelope Valley where the main warming will delayed to Tuesday, with temperatures up 5-10 degrees. Elsewhere, highs Tue and Wed will only increase by a degree or two. Any morning stratus will be patchy and brief. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...17/1006 AM. Look for a benign upper level pattern to return Thursday and continue through Saturday. At the same time onshore flow will increase some each day. This will reinvigorate the marine layer stratus and most csts and some vlys will wake up to clouds each morning. Winds will not be an issue. Max temps will fall 3 to 6 degrees across the csts/vlys on Thursday. All areas will see 3 to 4 degrees of cooling Friday. Saturday's cooling of 1 to 2 degrees will bring max temps down into the upper 60s through the upper 70s across the csts and vlys. && .AVIATION...18/0229Z. At 2328Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 5000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 8000 ft with a temperature of 10 C. Good confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KPMD and KWJF. Low confidence in 00Z TAFs for KSMX, KOXR and KCMA due to uncertainty in marine layer clouds. Winds may gust up to 25 kt by 16Z at KCMA and KOXR, and there's a 30% chance for northeast winds remaining below 10 kt at KOXR. Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs due uncertainty in the clearing time of marine layer clouds. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR conds could arrive anytime between 05Z and 08Z. Moderate to high confidence in east wind component 6-10 kt between 08Z-17Z. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF due to timing of low clouds. MVFR conds could arrive anytime between 04Z and 08Z. && .MARINE...17/710 PM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday night, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. For Tuesday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday morning, high confidence in a combinations of SCA level winds and seas. From Monday afternoon through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, SCA level winds are expected across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with conditions remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Monday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .BEACHES...17/152 PM. A combination of strong winds, large seas, and moderately high evening high tides may lead to high surf with minor coastal flooding possible into Monday morning. High Surf advisories and Beach Hazard statements have been issued across the entire coastline. Please refer to CFWLOX for more details for your area. Hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected with strong rip currents. Minor beach erosion and minor coastal flooding is possible, mainly during tonight's high tide. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 7 AM to 3 PM PDT Monday for zone 88. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Monday for zones 375>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/MW AVIATION...Phillips MARINE...RAT BEACHES...Lewis SYNOPSIS...LP/MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  743 FXUS63 KJKL 180520 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 120 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist into Tuesday. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast late Tuesday into Tuesday night, then persist through next weekend. - The switch to a wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings and produces a highly-beneficial, widespread wetting rainfall. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1130 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026 No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones. UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026 23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure east of the state in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the winds and keep skies mostly clear. Currently, temperatures are unseasonably warm - running in the low to mid 80s. Meanwhile, amid southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. && .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Monday night) Issued at 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026 Ridging at all levels over the southeast CONUS will be our primary influence through the short term period. The main flow aloft (out of the southwest) and embedded waves will be going around us to our west and north, along with the greatest low level flow off the gulf and its moisture. Thus, clouds and precip should be confined in that direction. This will result in clear or mostly clear skies with another very warm day here on Monday, but with substantial diurnal ranges of around 30 deg F for valleys. South to southwest low level flow will keep ridges milder each night. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 505 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 The long term forecast period opens on the precipice of a pattern change. A series of shortwave disturbances moving around the northwestern periphery of the previous days' amplified SE CONUS ridging will gradually work to break this ridge down. As this happens, flow in the lower half of the column adopts a more southwesterly orientation. This translates to increased moisture return and results in one last day of unseasonable heat. While the increased moisture will result in relatively greater sky cover and thus MaxTs a couple degrees cooler than they were on Monday, it will also bolster heat indices. Expect it to feel similarly hot outside on Tuesday afternoon, with widespread apparent temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The greatest moisture return will occur within our western counties, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms reenter the forecast for the northwestern half of the CWA on Tuesday afternoon. This initial round of activity will likely be diurnally driven, as the better frontal forcing will lag well to the west of the CWA at this time. Convective temperature guidance will need to be monitored in the coming days to bolster confidence in the spatial coverage of Tuesday afternoon's storms, but the parameter spacing is mediocre. There is sufficient CAPE in place for generic thunderstorms; the LREF mean data resolves a SE->NW gradient of 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Southeastern counties will be closer to the core of the antecedent ridging, and models accordingly resolve greater convective inhibition down there. Thus, there are sub-mentionable PoPs in the grids for counties bordering West Virginia and Virginia for this time frame. Further to the northwest, bulk wind shear values are generally below the marginally-favorable 30 knot threshold. The strongest storm cores across the Bluegrass may produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail, but Tuesday daytime convective setup looks rather pulsy. A frontal boundary arrives from the northwest on Tuesday night, and its forcing should be sufficient to spark additional showers and storms. The question is - how does the thermodynamic environment look ahead of this feature? Given the boundary's nocturnal arrival in our portion of the commonwealth, temperatures and instability *should* be at their diurnal cycle minimum. However, the persistence of SW low level flow and the antecedent warmth will leave Tuesday night's surface temperature insulated well above climatological averages. Expect lows to remain above the 60 degree mark, with some of the warmer ridgetops potentially hovering around 70. Depending on the amount of sky cover present around sunset, valley locales could thermally decouple and experience efficient radiational cooling. This could yield a scenario in which upstream convection becomes elevated above a more stable boundary layer in the valleys once it reaches our CWA's western escarpment. In other words, we are on QLCS graveyard watch for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Regardless of the strength of this convection, it will provide some highly beneficial widespread rainfall to Eastern Kentucky. There is a 65-75% chance for at least a quarter of an inch of rain in the 24 hour period ending at 8pm Wednesday across the entire forecast area. The greatest chances and the greatest storm total QPF will fall across the Cumberland River Basin, where chances will persist through the of the forecast period. While the boundary has trended a little bit more progressive with this morning's forecast guidance suite and storm total QPF has ticked a bit down, the boundary will struggle to fully push into the ridging in the SE CONUS. It is poised to stall out in the Tennessee Valley by midweek, and thus the southern half of the commonwealth will see repeated rain chances through the end of the period. Given these trends, Wednesday's Marginal (Level 1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook was trimmed down to just the Lake Cumberland region with the afternoon update. The entire Cumberland River Basin remains outlooked in a Marginal ERO for Day 5 (Thursday), as that boundary looks quite stubborn. Widespread, significant flash flooding is still not the most likely forecast solution, but areas where multiple rounds of thunderstorms persist for multiple days will need to be monitored closely as the ground progressively saturates. On the north side of the boundary, post-frontal winds will work to advect a cooler and drier airmass into the area. Northern portions of the forecast area should cool into the 70s on Wednesday, and more recent guidance suggests that Wednesday's MaxT grids could actually trend downward in future forecast packages. Temperatures cool to the 70s area-wide on Thursday before moderating into the next weekend. Unfortunately, rain chances ramp back up across the entire area around the same time. A disturbance passing through the mean west- southwesterly flow aloft will drag the stalled boundary back to the north by then. This allows the active weather to persist through the end of the period, and it marks a significant departure from the hot and dry pattern observed at the beginning of the forecast period. The newer, more active pattern bears watching for agricultural and hydrological interests though. The LREF Grand Ensemble resolves a 70- 90% chance of at least 1 inch of precipitation across the entire CWA by the end of the forecast period on Saturday night. The actual accumulation footprints will be streaky and spatially variable, but since most of the area is currently outlined in Moderate to Severe Drought and the most severe drought is situated down in the Cumberland Basin, this forecast's rainfall should prove highly beneficial. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 A bit of valley fog will likely affect some locations with IFR or worse conditions late tonight and early Monday morning, but it is not expected to affect any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will hold through the period along with winds less than 10 kts generally from the south through 12z-14z. However, LLWS likely impacting western sites will gradually diminish from south to north through the overnight. Southwest winds at 6 to 12 kts sustained develop between 14z-16z, with max gusts reaching as high as around 20 kts in the afternoon during peak heating, before diminishing significantly again toward sunset. Some models develop marginal south-southwesterly LLWS again briefly in the mid to late evening, but with low confidence, and with it appearing to be very transitory if it does occur, will opt to leave this out of TAFs for now. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...CMC  658 FXUS64 KEWX 180520 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1220 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance for a few showers and storms through Monday. - Active weather pattern from mid-week through the upcoming Memorial Holiday weekend. Heavy rain at times could lead to localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Cloud cover from this morning remains fairly thick across the region as we head into the early afternoon hours. We are seeing some partial clearing from time to time, especially out west over the Rio Grande plains. A few radar returns are noted and given the partial clearing, daytime heating as well as some support from the hi-res models, we have kept a low chance for showers and thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Widespread low clouds and south winds will keep a warm and humid air mass intact tonight into Monday as an active southwest flow aloft persists. Rain chances from the NBM appear too low today into Monday and we have opted to add a low chance (20-30%) to most of the region. The afternoon and evening hours appear most favorable for some isolated shower and thunderstorm development. Daytime highs will be at or a few degrees above normal, with overnight lows running some 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The pattern is expected to become a little more active as we head into the middle of the week. A weak cold front approaches from the north late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning as a fairly stout shortwave trough embedded in the southwest flow aloft moves across the region. Rain chances will go up considerably in this pattern and given the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, efficient rain producing convection is expected. WPC maintains a level 2 of 4 risk for heavy rainfall generally north of Highway 90, with a level 1 of 4 risk elsewhere. The above mentioned boundary weakens considerably as we head into Thursday and Friday, but the medium range guidance suggests another round of shortwave energy moving in from the southwest. Rain chances remain high given the pattern, with convection likely favored during the peak heating hours both days. Southwest flow aloft persists into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend and rain chances will remain in the forecast. It will be tough to determine which days remain favored for rainfall as it will be difficult to time the periods of favorable lift moving into the region. Persistent clouds and rain chances will likely keep temperatures below normal through the mentioned period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR ceilings have developed over the I-35 Corridor and should reach DRT within a few hours. These ceilings will last until around noon when all airports will rebound to VFR. Winds will continue to be strong and gusty tonight and through the day. MVFR ceilings will return late tonight. There is a less than 20% chance for showers or thunderstorms this afternoon in the Austin and San Antonio areas. Any convection could briefly reduce the ceiling or visibility to MVFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 92 78 91 72 / 10 20 50 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 79 91 73 / 10 20 50 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 78 91 72 / 10 20 40 60 Burnet Muni Airport 88 75 87 70 / 10 10 50 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 98 78 95 72 / 10 10 30 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 77 90 71 / 10 20 60 70 Hondo Muni Airport 92 78 91 72 / 10 20 40 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 78 92 73 / 10 20 4070 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 79 91 73 / 10 20 40 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 78 91 73 / 10 20 40 60 Stinson Muni Airport 93 79 92 73 / 10 20 30 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...05  625 FXUS64 KLZK 180519 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1219 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 -Warm and humid continue through early next week -Small chances for showers/thunderstorms Sunday -More unsettled pattern next week...with some potential for areas of heavy rainfall -Severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for late Monday and Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 To begin the period, mostly calm and dry conditions are expected Sunday into Monday with some light rain showers possible across mainly western Arkansas. A pattern change across the state will bring more unsettled weather through at least Thursday with strong to severe thunderstorms possible. Hot and humid conditions are likely across much of the state Sunday into Monday morning with low-end rain chances across mainly western Arkansas. By late Monday, the cold front is expected to approach the state bringing with it the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. As the front drops south, it is expected to stall over the state allowing for additional disturbances to track through with rain chances likely across the state through much of this upcoming week. Rain chances currently look to be heaviest on Tuesday with a widespread one to two inches possible. Some isolated locations could see higher amounts depending on where convection trains. The good news is we need the rain to help with drought conditions so widespread flood is not expected. Severe weather chances are possible with damaging winds gusts being the primary concern at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR conditions are pressent across the area to start the period. All terminals are expected to drop below MVFR CIGs before sunrise and remain there through most of the period. Recent CAM runs have been in agreement of scattered t'storms developing in NW AR Monday afternoon. Coverage remain uncertain to become full group at this time, but will continue to monitor development trends. CIGs likely to improve to VFR late afternoon to early evening Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 88 72 86 73 / 20 30 40 20 Camden AR 88 72 88 72 / 30 30 10 20 Harrison AR 86 71 85 71 / 20 30 30 10 Hot Springs AR 86 72 86 72 / 30 40 10 40 Little Rock AR 88 71 87 71 / 30 30 20 30 Monticello AR 88 72 88 72 / 30 20 10 30 Mount Ida AR 84 74 85 73 / 30 30 20 40 Mountain Home AR 86 70 85 71 / 20 30 50 10 Newport AR 90 72 88 72 / 10 20 30 20 Pine Bluff AR 89 72 88 72 / 30 20 10 20 Russellville AR 86 71 86 72 / 30 50 50 30 Searcy AR 88 69 87 70 / 20 30 30 20 Stuttgart AR 89 73 88 73 / 20 20 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...78  805 FXUS62 KRAH 180523 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 120 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 120 AM Monday... 1) Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. 2) Increasingly unsettled starting Wed night, with highest rain chances expected to be Thu. Low confidence in high temps Thu and Fri. && .DISCUSSION... As of 120 AM Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. Still anticipate multiple days of anomalously hot temperatures. Mid- upper level troughing from Saskatchewan/Manitoba down through the N Plains and Rockies will ensure maintenance of strong ridging over and off the Southeast coast through midweek (although this is complicated by a weak but persistent upper low NW of the Bahamas). The LREF continues to show 500 mb heights over NC reaching the 95th- 99th percentile into Wed. Meanwhile, at the surface, Bermuda high pressure continues to extend westward across NC, keeping low level moisture return limited, with deep mixing each day and minimal cloudiness overall. Multi-model low level thicknesses continue to be around 20 m above normal today through Wed, supporting highs from around 90 to the mid 90s given high insolation. Early-day dewpoints in the 60s are likely to mix out and drop into the 50s during the hottest parts of each day, which should keep heat index values from rising into the triple digits. However, this kind of early-season heat can still be unexpectedly dangerous, as people have not yet become acclimated to the hot weather. The daily experimental Heat Risk is expected to peak at Moderate (level 2 of 4) today through Wed, indicating that this kind of heat is quite unusual for this time of year and has historically led to high levels of heat illness, with sensitive individuals and those without adequate cooling particularly vulnerable. And with just a modest breeze and lots of sunshine each day, the WBGT index will also be elevated, so spending time in the shade is encouraged, especially for those working or exercising outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasingly unsettled starting Wed night, with highest rain chances expected to be Thu. Low confidence in high temps Thu and Fri. Confidence is high that the southern Canada portion of the mid-upper level trough will shift E over Ontario/Quebec and far E Canada Tue through Thu, allowing a cool surface high to spread across the N Great Lakes and St Lawrence Valley, reinforced by confluent flow aloft over the Northeast, which will help push a backdoor front southward into NC Thu. Precisely when this front arrives will drive both Thu high temps and precip chances. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF have trended toward a slightly slower arrival in their last few runs and are a bit slower than the latest LREF mean, indicating that at least our southern areas will likely stay in the warm sector longer, suggesting highs in the low 90s. Northern areas, especially near the VA border, have the largest temp spread among deterministic models and ensemble members, including the NBM's 15-20 degree 25th- 75th percentile spread for highs at Roxboro. Expect highs in the lower to upper 80s N of Hwy 64, but confidence in temps at any particular location is low. By Fri morning, the front is expected to settle across the S Piedmont and S Sandhills through the S/E Coastal Plain as the surface high center shifts ESE over the Northeast states, setting up a short-lived cold-air damming scenario, with stability reinforced by overrunning flow (albeit shallow) atop the wedging ridge. Highs NW of Hwy 1 are likely to be no warmer than the 70s, with some upper 60s for highs expected in the far N and NW Piedmont, while the far SE CWA should reach the low 80s. The greatest uncertainty with Fri high temps, however, will be through the heart of the CWA, including in the Triangle, as temps will depend on where the wedge boundary sets up. This high to our N and NE will be transitory, and as such we should see this wedge dissolve by Sat, leading to rebounding temps back to near to above normal values by the weekend as mid-upper ridging builds back over the Carolinas. Regarding pops, the highest rain chances look to be with and just behind the front, peaking Thu afternoon and night with an uptick in moist upglide, especially over the NW CWA within the deepest overrunning flow. Overall, the chance for showers and isolated to scattered storms will be above climatology Thu through the upcoming weekend, as our 925-850 mb flow strengthens from the SE and S, drawing in both Gulf and Atlantic moisture while weak perturbations ride within the SW flow from N Mexico and the TX Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. Coverage should be highest overall from the NW Piedmont to our W, where PW is expected to be highest within low level confluent flow and beneath weak DPVA and minor jet streaks to force ascent. Isolated pockets of heavy rain can't be ruled out, although generally speaking, these high pops are good news for our drought- ravaged region. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1250 AM Monday... TAF period: With high pressure offshore, the forecast should be quiet with VFR almost a certainty. The one exception will be around sunrise at FAY, where yesterday there was an MVFR ceiling for about 90 minutes, and vertical soundings show this should be a possibility again this morning. Otherwise, conditions should be mostly clear with southwest wind. Outlook: MVFR ceilings will be possible briefly at FAY and RWI Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, otherwise dry VFR conditions are forecast through Wednesday. The chance of rain will increase from northwest to southeast Wednesday night, with restrictions and showers expected Thursday and Friday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911 May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022 May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018 May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022 May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hartfield AVIATION...Green  802 FXUS63 KDLH 180522 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1222 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms return tonight. Primary hazards are damaging winds and large hail. - Another round of strong to severe storms Monday with timing most likely being overnight once again. Threats are hail, winds, and tornadoes. Heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding will also be possible. - Colder air returns Tuesday and Wednesday, a Freeze Warning may be needed for Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Strong easterly flow envelops the region today with cloud cover increasing. Radar shows areas of weak echoes across western MN and NW WI. Reports thus far have not yielded much in way of rainfall yet and will likely still take some time for this rain to make it to the surface. Especially with how dry the morning sounding was for INL. We are seeing some noticeable areas of isentropic ascent ahead of the approaching warm front though. These surges are over both the Red River Valley and into NW WI which will likely be our best chances for this initial batch of rain before the main system ramps up later tonight. That being said rain chances through the afternoon are 20-30%. Tonight: The main show is expected to arrive later tonight. An inverted trough moving across the Northern Plains will transition into the primary low pressure system with a strong cold front trailing into the Central Plains. Severe storms are expected to develop in SW SD this afternoon. Through the evening hours the low pressure will advance NE towards NW WI. A strong low level jet will help to sustain the ongoing convection and drive the activity into the Northland. Storm mode as it moves into our region will be linear with damaging winds being the primary hazard. Large hail can't be ruled out as well but the more favorable lapse rates don't line up well with the current progression of the storms. Tornado threat also looks low as surface based convection tied to the cold front looks to stay south of the region. Overall timing for the worst conditions look to move in after 9PM and exit to the east after 4AM. Primary impact areas align with where SPC has their severe weather outlook. Clipping the Brainerd Lakes area with NW WI mostly likely seeing the lion's share of the activity. Rain totals with the main band of storms could range from 0.50-1.00" with PWATs over 1.25" some storms could produce totals over 1.50" Monday: Monday's set up will heavily depend on the progression of the previous nights frontal boundary. The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance is in decent agreement with stalling out the frontal boundary over NW WI. SPC severe outlook has the marginal risk draped across NW WI and sliding southwest into southern MN. This outline essentially highlights the most likely warm sector in which we have potential for the atmosphere to reload on instability for strong to severe storms once again. Areas west of this could still see some rain development as a mid level trough pivots across the Northern Plains, but thunderstorm potential is not as great. High res guidance is once again suggesting a late night threat with linear storm mode. With the cold front being much closer to the region some storms may become tied to the surface allowing for some surface vorticity ingestion. All modes of severe will be in play with QLCS tornadoes not out of the question. Activity may ramp up as early as 7PM with some discrete cells forming in the warm sector initially. The linear storm is currently projected to move in after 9PM and out of the region by 3AM with some lingering showers. Additionally, localized flooding may become a concern. Heavy rainfall rates may impact areas already inundated from the previous round of storms. Tuesday/Wednesday: High pressure will start to move in from the west on Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Remnant moisture from the departing system with cyclonic flow aloft could still lead to some scattered showers. Tuesday night will sport some very chilly temperatures with a Freezing Warning likely being needed for most of the Northland. Temperatures rebound a bit on Wednesday as surface high pressure saunters off to the east. Highs will climb back into the 50s and 60s. End of the Work Week: With the departure of high pressure Thursday will see southerly flow returning to the Northland. Highs continue to trend back up with widespread afternoon temps expected to reach the 60s. Cluster analysis shows an upper level trough moving out of the Rockies once again which will prompt increased chances for precipitation. At this time we are carrying 20-30% chance of rain to end the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Blend of IFR and VFR for now with east winds decreasing and eventually turning light north. A complex of storms will move NW WI this morning. Thinking KHYR will be the most impacted though believe there will be the typical spring return flow that brings LIFR conditions into KDLH in the post-complex air mass with onshore easterly flow. Thinking this will last into tomorrow morning with low confidence on its occurrence due to the complex mainly dissolving in the dry air mass, so it may just act to saturate the lower levels - maybe enough to form the low stratus and fog. Another round of storms is expected this evening. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Strong easterly winds are impacting the Lake this afternoon with gales being observed across the head of the Lake and up the North Shore. Wave heights of 7 to 10 ft are also being observed as well. Gales will subside this evening but we will still need a Small Craft Advisory for a bit. Monday afternoon northeast winds ramp up again with gales possible in the overnight hours. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Gusty east winds today but Min RHs are much higher than the past few days. Isolated rain showers are possible this afternoon. More widespread rain and storms will enter from the southwest tonight, some storms may be strong to severe. This first round of storms exits early tomorrow morning with another round possible tomorrow evening and overnight. Tomorrow's set up will also be primarily during the overnight hours with severe storms possible. Rain totals haven't shifted too much from the previous forecast package. NW WI still stands the best chance of seeing 1.5-2.0" of rain with lesser amounts as you progress northwest. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt  784 FXUS63 KIWX 180522 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 122 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain, damaging wind gusts, and hail are the the primary hazards. - Additional severe storms are anticipated on Tuesday. - Remaining warm and humid through Tuesday. Cooler and dry by Wednesday with highs only in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 The primary severe weather concern tomorrow evolves around what is expected to be an upstream, mature, MCS early Monday morning. MCS maintenance is dependent, in part, on mid-level lapse rates, instability, and bulk shear. Instability appears to be a non- issue across northern IL and even northwest IN on either side of sunrise Monday, with MUCAPE values of 1,000-1,500 j/kg. Lapse rates near 7C/km are also favorable, but shear magnitude of only 25 knots immediately ahead of the line is marginal at best, in contrast to increased shear values behind the line (which could be a result of the model-derived convection). Given the aformentioned nuances, and upper-level forcing lifting north of our area, an incoming MCS from Illinois in the morning will be in a weakening phase as it approaches northwest Indiana just after sunrise. The associated outflow boundary from this MCS is likely the catalyst for afternoon severe thunderstorms (best window of opportunity appears to be 1p to 10p EDT). Forecast soundings ahead of the line show bountiful SFC and MU CAPE in excess of 2,000 j/kg while bulk shear values is marginal near 25 knots. Steep low-level lapse rates suggest damaging winds are the primary hazard, as does the anticipated linear storm mode. A southwesterly low-level shear vector indicates a low tornado probability for the northern edge of any MCS that develops. Cannot rule out hail from any discrete storms that develop ahead of the line. A final plausible outcome for Monday is that the weakening MCS moves from west to east Monday morning through midday, resulting in abundant cloud cover and steady rain for a time which ultimately squashes the severe weather risk. Given the preceding instability (as noted above) this seems unlikely. Similarly, severe weather appears increasingly likely on Tuesday as the slow-moving cold front ultimately responsible for this active weather pattern moves through. Instability continues to be ample while 0-6km shear improves toward 35 knots. With the cold front in play, tornadoes are possible as well. Fine details remain to be seen, but early indications suggest a line of thunderstorms develops to our west and moves through Tuesday afternoon and evening. Notably cooler starting Wednesday with highs only in the 60s. High pressure promotes dry weather through at least Friday, perhaps into Saturday, depending on the timing of the next disturbance lifting in from the Southern Plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 117 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions will continue through midday with the only concern being some marginal LLWS as the low level flow begins to ramp up somewhat. A decaying MCS out of Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois will be the focus for potential strong to severe storms today. This complex is expected to weaken over Illinois this morning and then reintensify across northern Indiana around 18Z. Breezy southerly wind will gust as high as 30 kts today, even outside of any showers or storms. The strongest storms may end up east of IN-15 towards KFWA, but have maintained a PROB30 at KSBN for 17-20Z and a few hours later at KFWA from 19-22Z. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible within any storms. The main threats today will be heavy rain and damaging wind gusts up to 50kts. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Johnson  849 FXUS62 KMFL 180523 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 123 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 119 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through at least Tuesday evening as breezy easterly winds prevail. - Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue this evening as inland activity gradually wanes in intensity and coverage. Rain chances will remain elevated over the next several days. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 South Florida is going to be sandwiched between an upper level low centered near the Bahamas and a ridge of high pressure over the deep south and Gulf. The low over the Bahamas will usher in some positive vorticity pulses from the northeast and increase instability across the area. The easterly flow has a chance to become more dominant than yesterday, meaning that the Gulf breeze may not be able to move inland at all. However, much of the guidance does have it forming and getting stuck just barely on land. If this boundary does move more inland it will get pinned no further than along the metro areas of Collier county and Naples. SBCAPE is forecast to be 2000-3000 J/kg with steep low level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km and 500mb temps near -10 deg C. The dry air column has mostly been eroded, although some level of dry air still remains in the mid-levels along with an inverted-V profile on model soundings. This suggests that a couple of storms could become marginally severe again via wind gusts. Additionally, with these steep low level lapse rates and increased CAPE, updraft health has a good chance to be sustained even with the inhibition of the upper level ridge. Given the upper level ridge presence, the risk for strong to severe storms is highly conditional again today, but with the parameters explained above, support is there for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two occurring along the Gulf breeze where the strongest lift and near-surface convergence occurs. Both severe winds and quarter-size hail will be possible today. On Tuesday, the weather pattern remains largely the same although its more uncertain to determine severe potential. The easterly flow will remain in place and result in another day with a Gulf breeze that gets trapped from advancement, but 500mb temps will rise a couple of degrees to -8 deg C and some extra dry will filter in the mid-levels, which will lower instability. Nevertheless, typical wet season scattered showers and storms are still expected on Tuesday with most of the activity occurring in Southwest Florida with the ongoing easterly flow regime. High temperatures for today and Tuesday will again range from the mid to upper 80s in Southeast Florida to the low to mid 90s for Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Longwave ridging will be the dominant pattern aloft for the eastern CONUS during the middle portion of the week. Florida will find itself in between an H5 centroid to its west over the southern Gulf and an H5 centroid to its east near Bermuda. Within the overall ridging pattern, ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement of showing a cut off low meandering around the northern Caribbean just east of the Bahamas. This area of low pressure will provide increased forcing for storms over the Atlantic waters as several lobes of vorticity advect westward near the vicinity of the Florida coastline. Florida will remain under rich moisture through the period, but some deeper pockets look to raise PWATs to near 1.8 inches, which is within the 75th percentile for this time of year. At the surface, winds will remain mostly easterly, but wind speeds will be slightly weaker than in the beginning of the week as pressure gradients relax across the eastern seaboard. As a result of this predominant easterly flow, the Gulf breeze won't be able to advance as far east. This will result in most afternoon thunderstorm activity favoring interior and portions of southwest Florida each day. Overall, PoPs will generally be in the 30% to 40% range across the peninsula each day, with higher 55% to 65% PoPs along the sea breeze convergence zones. Main threats will be frequent lightning, locally heavy downpours, and gusty winds. Despite the cutoff low nearby, 500 mb heights will actually be between 586 to 589 dm across South Florida, which is near to slightly above average for this time of year. This will in turn lead to slightly above normal temperatures area wide, with high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. With moisture staying steady throughout the week, heat indices will remain in the upper 90s and lower 100s through the period as well. Zooming into the forecast a little bit, diurnal heating will drive most of these high temperatures each afternoon. But, with increased chances of showers moving onshore from the Gulfstream during the morning (particularly for the middle part of the week), cloud cover and rain may keep things cooler over certain spots during the day. Conversely, increased cloud cover and rain during the nighttime hours may suppress radiational cooling and keep things slightly warmer overnight. For the most part, widespread Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) is expected each day. However, long range ensembles are indicating that pressure heights will increase slightly as longwave ridging shifts east and the cut off low dissolves. This will result in warmer temperatures for the weekend, with the NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool showing a 40 to 50 percent chance of Major heat impacts for the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Breezy easterly winds will continue with SHRA coverage forecast to increase once again along the east coast of South Florida between 10-12z Monday before activity pushes inland by 17-19z. Wind gusts will rise up to 20-25 kts as well. At KAPF, SHRA/TS coverage will occur after 18-19Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A moderate to fresh easterly breeze will remain established across the local waters early this week. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each day with extra activity expected for the Gulf waters compared to the Atlantic waters. Periods of rough seas and gustier winds are expected in and around thunderstorm activity. Atlantic seas early this week are expected generally at 3-4 feet with Gulf seas of 2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues for all of the Atlantic beaches early this week as breezy onshore winds persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 88 78 88 77 / 40 30 40 30 West Kendall 89 75 89 74 / 40 30 40 20 Opa-Locka 89 77 89 77 / 30 30 40 30 Homestead 88 77 88 77 / 40 40 40 30 Fort Lauderdale 86 78 86 78 / 30 40 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 86 77 86 77 / 30 40 40 30 Pembroke Pines 90 78 90 78 / 30 30 40 30 West Palm Beach 86 77 86 77 / 30 30 50 20 Boca Raton 86 78 86 78 / 30 40 50 30 Naples 93 74 93 74 / 60 10 80 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....NMP AVIATION...Redman  905 FXUS63 KTOP 180525 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1225 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms are expected to develop along a dryline/cold front across north-central late this afternoon and into the evening. Localized flooding, large hail (up to 2.5 inches) and damaging winds (60-70 mph) will be possible. - Widespread severe thunderstorms are still expected Monday afternoon and evening across eastern Kansas. Storms are expected to be rather intense with all modes of severe weather possible (hail up to 2-4", damaging winds to 70-80 mph, and a few tornadoes - some strong). - A Flood Watch has been issued for areas north of I-70 through Tuesday morning. Heavy rainfall from several rounds of thunderstorms could yield in 2-4 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts. - Storms exit the area by early Tuesday morning with a much cooler air mass moving into the region for the remainder of the week. Shower and storm chances return Thursday-Saturday to the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Another volatile environment is setting up for strong thunderstorms this afternoon across the central Plains just ahead of a deepening, posititevely-tilted upper trough in the Rockies. Persistent PVA into the central Plains has further deepened a 995 mb surface low across northwestern Kansas with a tight pressure gradient extending to its east across Kansas. Gusty winds and strong low-level moisture transport have become apparent this afternoon over eastern Kansas as mixing and diurnal heating has slowly mixed out cloud cover. By the later afternoon hours, diurnal heating and low-level moisture transport will push MLCAPE values into the 3000-3500 J/kg range with modest deep shear. Initial storm development can be expected to develop near the triple point region in north-central Kansas and along the dryline to the south across central Kansas in the 6-7 PM timeframe. Storms will likely strengthen quickly given the steep ML and LL lapse rates. Initial threats with storms will be very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter) and winds up to 60-70 mph. By the early evening, a 0-1 km bulk shear vectors and slight backing of surface winds will help to elongate hodographs across the the warm sector and help to increase the tornado threat within storms. That said, the lack of deep shear this far east of the main upper-level wave seems to be modest at best (20-35 knots). This indicates the potently for storms to lack the structure to maintain themselves for long periods. Better shear values for long and sustained supercells seems to stay north and west of the area this evening. Taking all of this into account, the best window for strong to severe storms seems to be from 6PM to midnight tonight. Elevated convection will track east through the overnight hours aided by outflow boundaries and isentropic ascent within the LLJ. As most convection will remain elevated after 12 AM tonight, main hazards will be large hail and an occasional wind gust to 50-60 mph. Training and backbuilding of convection in the early morning hours of Monday may also pose a localized flooding concern with areas picking up a quick 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts to 3-4 inches remaining a possibility. Attention quickly turns to Monday as this appears to be the day that will pose the most widespread and high-end risk for severe weather. Lingering rain and thunderstorms will exit into Missouri by the mid morning Monday leaving much of far eastern Kansas blanketed with stratus. There have been hints that an outflow boundary will remain across the area from morning convection. This could become a focal point in convection later in the afternoon so will need to monitor this as convection exits in the morning. Through the day, the long wave trough that has remained stalled over the central Rockies ejects over the central Plains, taking on a negative tilt across Kansas. Low-level mesoscale features will respond to the upper trough's eastward push with a surface cyclone entering central and north-central KS by peak heating hours. Ahead of the surface low, a very unstable warm sector characterized by upper 60 degree Tds, upper 80 and low 90 degree surface Ts will be in place. Aloft, a 50- 60 knot 500 mb jet will overspread central and eastern Kansas with cooling mid-level temperatures and intense divergence aloft. This will push MLCAPE values into the 4000-4500 J/kg. RAP and HRRR analysis has MLCIN and SBCIN eroding by 18-20z in central and north- central Kansas, just ahead of the surface triple point. Convective initiation along the dryline/coldfront in the 20-22z timeframe has been noted by HREF analysis. There is a small chance that isolated cells go up ahead of the frontal boundary, especially if there is an outflow boundary stalled out over the region, but confidence in this occurring is low at the moment. Not much has changed in terms of overall threats as we are still looking at very large hail (up to 2- 4" in size), damaging winds (70-80 mph) and tornadoes, some possibly strong. The main question at this point in time is the overall evolution in storms Monday evening. If storms can move off the boundary and become isolated, this would pose a greater risk for strong tornadoes, and very large hail. The other scenario would be for storms to form along the boundary and grow upscale. While storms will still be very intense in the upscale scenario, storm interactions may limit the intensity of storms a bit keeping large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Given lots of curvature in low-level hodographs in the warm sector, it seems likely that several well-established supercells will separate from the front and follow the right vector that takes the storm more east/northeast rather than northeast. These storms will be the most intense, especially if they remain isolated with little storm interferences. The area best suited for these storms to impact seems to be from north-central KS into the Flint hills. Once storms reach far eastern Kansas, outflow boundaries and storms interactions seem to increase and congeal most remaining convection into a line of embedded supercells. This would transition the treat to isolated, embedded tornadoes within the line, straight line winds and large hail. Severe storms should exit with the front by Tuesday morning, returning dry and well below normal temperatures to the region Tuesday afternoon. A much cooler air mass moves in for the remainder of the week with rain and storm chances by Thursday and Friday with some long wave troughs entering the central US. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR at terminals with a weakening line of TSRA impacting sites to start the forecast period. Storms will gradually weaken aft 08Z, clearing west to east through 13Z. Initial northwest winds behind an outflow boundary gradually veers back to the south by sunrise, gusting to around 30 kts during the daytime period. Added a PROB30 group for TSRA aft 00Z as a line of storms is likely to form west of sites before tracking southeast overnight along a fropa. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Record High Temperature Sunday May 17 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 92 (1907) 90 Concordia 96 (1996) 97 Monday May 18 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 94 (1975) 91 Concordia 94 (1967, 1988) 89 Record Warm Low Temperature Sunday May 17 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 73 (1996) 69 Concordia 68 (1902, 1906) 67 Monday May 18 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 71 (1911) 70 Concordia 72 (1911) 64 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...22 CLIMATE...Griesemer  874 FXUS64 KOHX 180525 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1225 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Above normal temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s continue through Tuesday. - There is a high chance for showers and storms late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The severe threat is very low. - Additional rain chances late week may push rainfall totals over 2 inches by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Southerly flow persists again Monday, allowing for another day of above normal warmth as temperatures make their way into the upper-80s to low-90s again. There is a disturbance to the northwest of Middle TN that will be responsible for afternoon convection. Most of this should stay to our northwest, but CAMs this evening are picking up on an isolated storm or two that may clip the Stewart County area late into Monday evening. Regardless, most of Middle TN will remain dry through Monday. The pattern is still looking favorable for beneficial rain starting on Tuesday. A troughing pattern develops across the eastern CONUS with a series of shortwaves impacting the area through the end of the week, and moisture values will be on the rise with PWATs on Tuesday increasing to around 1.5 inches. As a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest, rain chances will increase ahead of it to around 60-80%, particularly Tuesday afternoon into the night. The severe weather threat for Tuesday looks low with better wind shear displaced to the north, but won't rule out a thunderstorm producing strong winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1021 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Highest rain chances of the week are on Wednesday as the front slowly pushes south. Severe weather threat Wednesday still looks to be low as the highest wind shear still is to the north, displaced from the higher instability to the south ahead of the front. But again, won't rule out the low chance for strong to damaging winds due to the front. Then unsettled weather is favored to persist through the end of the week and into next weekend as the front stalls somewhere over the region and southerly flow continues to advect moisture into the area. PWATs are expected to remain high at 1.5" or higher, helping to keep medium to high rain chances in the forecast. Probabilities for beneficial rain continue to trend up with latest ensemble guidance giving a 50-70% chance for at least 2 inches of rain by the end of the week which would certainly be good news for the drought. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR will continue through this TAF cycle. South winds will be light at night and gusty to 20-25 KTS daytime. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 71 91 67 / 0 0 30 60 Clarksville 90 72 89 66 / 10 10 60 80 Crossville 85 65 85 63 / 10 0 20 40 Columbia 90 69 90 66 / 0 0 30 60 Cookeville 88 68 87 64 / 10 0 30 50 Jamestown 89 65 88 63 / 10 0 20 40 Lawrenceburg 88 69 88 66 / 0 0 20 50 Murfreesboro 91 70 90 66 / 0 0 20 50 Waverly 90 72 90 67 / 10 10 50 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....13  934 FXUS63 KDDC 180526 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1226 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very windy conditions will return to southwest Kansas on Monday, with wind gusts up to 50 mph potentially causing reduced visibility due to blowing dust. - Critical to Extreme Fire Weather is expected Monday afternoon across extreme southwest Kansas (west of Highway 283 and south of a Syracuse to Garden City line). In this area wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and relative humidity near 5% will be possible. - Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon east of Highway 283. The primary threats are very large hail and damaging winds, with a few tornadoes also possible. - Models show an improving chance for precipitation across all of southwest Kansas by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Models this evening are in good agreement in the evolution of the upper level trough over the Four Corners region over the next 24 hours. They also all are in good agreement with a shortwave trough/500mb jet max ejecting northeastward from the base of the trough towards western Kansas during the day on Monday. This will result in a deepening surface low over eastern Colorado, significantly tightening the surface pressure gradient across southwest Kansas as it lifts a surface boundary back north across southwest Kansas during the day. This setup combined with 850 mb winds increasing to 30 knots after 18z suggests that the NBM may end up being a little low on afternoon wind gusts given the past few days but if you lean towards the more realistic 75th percent (based on BUFR soundings wind gusts via momentum transfer). This would result in a few gusts approaching 50 mph which is well below high wind warning but strong enough to produce areas of blowing dust in locations that did receive rainfall from the storms Sunday night. The models today places this northward moving surface boundary near Garden City and Larned by mid afternoon with a dryline extending south of this boundary into western Oklahoma. East of the dryline the southerly low level flow will maintain dewpoints above 60 degrees. Also improve mid level instability and synoptic lift are expected during the afternoon as an upper level trough approaches from the west. This will result in another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and evening across Central and South Central Kansas. Any storms that develop have a high probability of becoming severe, with the primary hazards being very large hail and damaging wind gusts. A risk for tornadoes also exists, with the most favorable area located across South Central Kansas where model guidance shows the dryline/cold front intersection coinciding with a developing low level jet early Monday evening. In addition to the severe weather threat...a critical to extreme fire weather risk is expected on Monday afternoon with the highest fire risk being confined to areas west of the dryline, where gusty southwesterly winds will align with a much drier airmass. Deep vertical mixing will not only transport high momentum winds down to the surface but will also draw down dry air aloft, causing afternoon relative humidity values to bottom out in the single digits. The combination of frequest gusts above 40 mph and extreme low level dryness will create a highly volatile environment favorable for extreme fire behavior and rapid rates of spread. Current Red Flag Warning has this area outlined very well. This first upper level trough will lift northeast toward the Upper Mississippi Valley Monday night, allowing the cold front to push south into Oklahoma. By Tuesday morning, this boundary is forecast to stall from southeast Colorado into western Oklahoma and remain nearly stationary through the middle of the week as a secondary upper level disturbance approaches from the west. Although specific details remain unclear, ensemble guidance suggests the mid week period may present multiple opportunities for accumulating rainfall across southwest Kansas. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Gusty north winds are expected overnight into early Monday morning behind a cold front that will briefly push south toward Liberal. This frontal boundary will then lift north as a warm front during the day, allowing gusty south winds to return. The boundary is expected to stall near Garden City during the afternoon. This setup will keep winds northerly at Hays not only tonight but also on Monday. Southerly winds will develop at Dodge City and Liberal between 15Z and 18Z, with afternoon gusts reaching 35 to 40 knots.These gusty winds will likely produce some reduced visibilities due to blowing dust. Winds will be more complex near Garden City, where the front stalls, but a north to south wind shift remains possible between 16Z and 20Z. BUFR soundings indicate VFR conditions with the exception of a 3-5hour time frame between 06z and 15z when a period of MVFR ceilings will develop behind the cold front passage. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A critical to extreme fire weather risk is expected across southwest Kansas Monday afternoon. Ensembles earlier this evening agree that the dryline will be located near or just east of Highway 283 which will result in keeping the unseasonably dry air mass over extreme southwest Kansas (Cimarron Grassland). By late morning the stronger boundary layer winds will mix down to the surface, bringing gusts over 30 mph before noon and exceeding 40 mph by 2 PM. This deep mixing will also pull exceptionally dry air to the ground, dropping relative humidity into the single digits. These conditions will create a volatile environment west of Highway 283 and south of Garden City, where Red Flag Warning conditions are most likely. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ074>077- 084>087. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert FIRE WEATHER...Burgert  967 FXUS65 KVEF 180527 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1026 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Expect strong winds, blowing dust, and cooling temperatures through Monday as a trough moves across the region. && .DISCUSSION...through Sunday. Southwesterly winds have begun to develop across the forecast area and they will continue to strengthen throughout the afternoon. The cold front is still just to the north of the area but will begin to push into the northern fringes during the early afternoon hours in places like Bishop and Tonopah. The front should push through the Las Vegas Valley between 7pm and 8pm with the winds shifting abruptly to the northwest. Based on the latest trends with surface pressure gradients and upper level support, the strongest winds should be over Inyo, Esmeralda and Nye Counties where gusts could exceed 70 mph. Keeping an eye on satellite imagery for blowing dust potential and there is beginning to be some hints of blowing dust coming off of some dry lake beds in Mineral County. We'll be watching this closely everywhere this afternoon and evening but particulary in Death Valley National Park and southern Nye Counties. The wind products look in good shape and no changes have been made. Expect widespread gusts between 40 and 55 mph as well as stronger gusts in excess of 60 mph in parts of southern Nevada and southeastern California. Drivers should be prepared for hazardous crosswinds and blowing dust, and boaters should be aware of waves between 2 and 4 feet on Lake Mead, Lake Mohave, and Lake Havasu with potential for higher waves behind the front in the Overton Arm and Lake Mohave tonight. Showers (40-80% probability) and even an isolated thunderstorm with a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE in place across eastern Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties during the afternoon and early evening hours. This strong spring system will exit quickly on Monday and take the stronger winds with it but some gusty northerly winds will linger down the Colorado River Valley throughout the day on Monday. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler areawide on Monday and about 10 degrees below their seasonal normals. That will be short lived as temperatures will climb steadily during the week, reaching back to normal levels by Wednesday and 5 to 10 degrees above normal by late week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Gusty south to southwest winds will continue through the morning hours gusts of 30 to 40 knots likely. Winds will gradually diminish through the morning. Periods of low-level turbulence can be expected through the midday Monday. No significant ceilings or visibility concerns are expected through the TAF period For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Strong winds will continue across much of the region through the morning Monday at Las Vegas Valley TAF sites, while strong winds gusting to 30+KT will persist through the day in the Colorado River Valley. No significant ceilings or visibility concerns are expected through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwesterly winds will continue to strengthen across much of the area this afternoon before a frontal passage causes a shift to the north to northwest this afternoon and evening. There will be widespread gusts between 40 and 55 mph with isolated stronger gusts of 60 to 70 mph+. The strongest winds are expected in Inyo, Esmeralda and Nye Counties. Precipitation is not expected outside of eastern Lincoln County and far northern Mohave County this afternoon and early evening with a few lightning strikes not our of the question (20% probability). Minimum humidity falls to the 10 to 20percent range this afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue where fuels are receptive and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for northwestern Arizona until 8 PM MST this evening. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Czyzyk AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  009 FXUS61 KALY 180528 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 128 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above-normal temperatures will continue through the midweek. The NWS HeatRisk is in the moderate category for heat- related impacts, especially on Tuesday. 2) The most widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms is likely on Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Some stronger thunderstorms will be possible where thunderstorms pass through during the afternoon hours. 3) A return to more seasonable conditions is expected later this week with the next chance for widespread rain being next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level ridge off the East Coast will allow for a south to southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft through early this week bringing the warmest airmass since last summer to eastern New York and western New England. 850 hPa temperatures (increasing to +15 to +18C) will run around +2 to +2.5 STDEV through Tuesday of this week. Highs on Monday will reach into the 80s to near 90 for most areas then the mid-80s to lower 90s on Tuesday. Some locations within the mid-Hudson Valley could reach the mid-90s on Tuesday. While record highs will not be challenged on Monday, they could be challenged on Tuesday. Current record highs for Tuesday are displayed in the climate section below. Dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to lower to locally mid-60s will result in heat index (feels- like temperatures) to be close to the air temperature and generally below heat advisory criteria. However, these hot conditions have resulted in the NWS HeatRisk to be in the moderate category for most of the area on Tuesday. This category affects those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling/hydration, and some health systems and industries. The heat will begin to ease on Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region with more information on this in key message 2. KEY MESSAGE 2... Most areas will remain dry through Tuesday though some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible on both days. Activity on Monday will occur mainly for areas north of I-90 and during the morning hours along a northeastward lifting warm front. The more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms is likely on Wednesday ahead of a passing cold front. Most sources of guidance is now pushing the cold front through the region during the morning and early afternoon hours. In this scenario, the better potential for some stronger thunderstorms may be focused for areas mainly south and east of Albany where some destabilization will be possible in the morning. Will monitor trends on the timing of the front and where the potential for stronger thunderstorms occur. Temperatures could widely vary on Wednesday pending the frontal location with current forecast values ranging from the mid to upper 60s across the Adirondacks to the upper 90s/lower 90s across the mid-Hudson Valley into northwestern CT. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure builds into the region on Thursday with a return to more seasonable conditions for the end of the week along with a much drier airmass (dewpoints falling back into the 30s). High temperatures return to the 60s to around 70 for most days. Most sources of guidance brings a return to rainfall sometime next weekend as a southern stream system lifts across the area. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday, mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. However, upper level disturbances could bring a few showers/thunderstorms to KGFL between 10Z-14Z/Mon, and again 00Z-03Z/Tue. Brief MVFR/IFR Vsbys could occur within any heavier downpours. Light/variable winds will become southeast to south and increase to 8-12 KT by late morning, with some gusts of 15-20 KT possible this afternoon. South winds will persist after sunset at 5-10 KT. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... High Temperature Records: May 19 Albany, NY: 91 degrees set in 1989 Glens Falls, NY: 88 degrees set in 1989 Poughkeepsie, NY: 96 degrees set in 1962 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...24 CLIMATE...31  995 FXUS63 KLBF 180527 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1227 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather likely afternoon and evening with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) in place for Central to North Central Nebraska. Hazards include damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two. -A Tornado Watch has been issued until 10 pm CDT tonight for portions of North Central Nebraska. - Cooler conditions are expected Monday behind a strong cold front, with periods of rain and a brief changeover to snow possible Monday night, mainly across north-central Nebraska. - Additional chances for light rain return by late week into next weekend as a more active pattern persists across the region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Another severe weather day returns this afternoon into tonight. An strong upper level trough is moving across western CONUS where a shortwave ejects southwesterly flow into eastern NE. There still remains some uncertainty on thunderstorm coverage, but as it stands there is at least moderate to high (60 - 80%) confidence of seeing scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in east north central Nebraska along the SD border. A cold front has initiated and pushed a convective line eastward along the SD/NE border bringing a damaging wind threat. The main area of concern will be a 45 degree enhanced risk line from the CO border near Grant to the SD border near Butte early this evening where CAMS have been showing a trend of eastern progression along a secondary cold front pushing in from the northwest. The environment is quite volatile where MUCAPE ranges from 2000 J/kg to 2500 J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates will remain steep through the afternoon to early evening with 0 to 6 km shear increasing to 50+ kts. There as been some uncertainty over the potential of storms developing back westward along the panhandle and southwest NE but will be closely monitored for upcoming developments. Additionally, main threats with any severe storms will be the possibility for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph, large hail (2.5"+) and a strong tornado or two. A Tornado Watch has been issued until 10 pm CDT for north east Nebraska. Severe storms are expected to clear out quickly late tonight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Monday, the longwave trough will settle across the central Rockies into the Four Corners region. Ahead of this system, a shortwave trough will move across western Nebraska during the daytime hours. Strong 700-850mb cold air advection will spread into most of the region through Monday afternoon, leading to a sharp cold front through the area. Behind the front, highs will remain in the 40s across north-central Nebraska, with mid 50s farther south. Currently, the SPC Day 2 outlook moves the greatest thunderstorm and severe threat to the east and southeast of the area, though some thunderstorm risk is still possible for the northeast counties as some lingering elevated instability remains. Behind the system, stronger synoptic lift will persist across western Nebraska into Monday evening. While severe weather is not expected on the cool side of the system, a steadier rainfall may develop across portions of the area. 850mb temperatures will fall around 0C with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, which will support the potential for a brief transition to snow. Currently thinking the duration of this changeover will be quite limited. Since snow in late May is not very common for the area, folks should still pay attention, as some minor impacts could occur. Tuesday into the end of the week, the main storm system will finally move off to the east of the region with mid to upper level heights building fairly quickly behind it. Zonal mid level flow will become established through mid week. More active weather could impact the area Wednesday through the end of the week, though these systems continue to look weaker compared to the current storm system. Precipitation chances will increase from Thursday through the weekend though, only light rain events appear the most probable at this time. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate some, with a return to seasonable highs by Thursday and slightly above normal temperatures by the following weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Increasing clouds will bring extensive degraded aviation conditions for western Nebraska terminals. Early morning satellite shows low clouds expanding across South Dakota to the north and Kansas to the south. This is behind a cold front that passed through the area earlier today. Expect low stratus to eventually fill in over western Nebraska with prolonged MVFR conditions likely. Northern Nebraska, including the VTN terminal, could potentially see IFR/LIFR conditions briefly by late morning. This is hinted at by the usually reliable HRRR output with GFSLAMP suggesting a longer duration period of IFR conditions through the daytime. Will keep the LIFR conditions brief and highlight the longer IFR duration with adjustments likely in later forecasts. Winds should remain fairly steady out of the north with gusts ranging from 20 to 30 knots across the region. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MRS LONG TERM...Labenz AVIATION...NMJ  054 FXUS65 KABQ 180529 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1129 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1122 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 - A multi-day threat of rapid fire spread continues through Monday with the most critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions focused over eastern New Mexico. - Hazardous crosswinds will impact high profile vehicles along with lowering visibility due to blowing dust Monday afternoon. - There is a moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive populations through this evening across the eastern plains due to near-record heat. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 150 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 A 140 kt jet is diving out of British Columbia into WA/OR/NV, allowing an upper low to take shape over the Great Basin. This is causing the flow aloft to strengthen over NM from the southwest with another lee-side surface low deepening over the northeast corner of NM, a setup for windy conditions that are already transpiring. The low will work into southeast UT tonight with southwest winds aloft continuing to strengthen more over NM. While several locations will observe a decrease in wind speeds this evening, the winds will be rather erratic into the overnight, exhibiting ebbs, flows and periodic surges in speed, especially near high terrain zones and over western NM as the boundary layer fights to decouple. The 700 mb winds are modeled to peak in speed between 09-15Z with speeds of 50- 55 kt overlaying the western and southern high terrain of NM. Speeds will then relax to a 25 to 40 kt range through the day Monday. This poses concerns for damaging gusts, and a High Wind Watch has been issued to account for this, but it will be a hair-splitting close call. Several adjacent zones in northeast to east central NM will also likely need Wind Advisories to account for surface gusts to 50 mph. The upper low will eject eastward, opening into a wave Monday, and a few showers and thunderstorms will accompany, only grazing our northern zones briefly in the morning Monday. Temperatures will cool a few to several degrees area-wide, falling below normal in western zones while eastern ones lower to just slightly above average. Monday night, the surface low will get replaced by rapid pressure rises, courtesy of a backdoor front. This front will overtake the eastern plains before dawn Tuesday, bringing gusty winds, but also a welcome rise in dewpoints. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 150 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 The backdoor cold front will cause temperatures to run cooler in eastern zones Tuesday with all zones generally running near to slightly below normal for daytime highs. Surface winds would veer in the plains, turning southeasterly by late afternoon while breezy west southwesterlies prevail in western zones. Where these areas converge, including the Rio Grande valley and central mountain chain, gusty conditions (25 to 35 mph) are being modeled. However, speeds will still be drastically lower than previous days. With surface high pressure continuing to build into the central plains, an easterly moisture push is still slated for Wednesday with considerable rises in dewpoints. This will cause much of the eastern plains (and potentially the east slopes of central mountain chain) to destabilize with sufficient juice for storms. This will sufficiently initiate storms, some of which will turn strong to severe across eastern NM. Per usual this time of year, there are considerable boundary layer parameterization differences amongst models with the bullish NAM carrying the moisture much farther west than the more bearish GFS. Scattered storms would be possible againin the eastern plains on Thursday with the moisture potentially sloshing a bit farther east, in part due to a central Rockies shortwave which may also enhance the forcing and initiation. The moisture would attempt to hold on over the eastern zones into Friday as well, but may be thinning and mixing out some as temperatures start to warm back closer to normal. Upper level features become less prominent and poorly defined into next weekend, making the fate of moisture in the east a bit ambiguous. Blended guidance gradually reduces dewpoints day-by-day, reducing storm chances while seasonable temperatures prevail area-wide. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Strengthening southwesterly winds aloft across the region alongside decreasing surface winds will continue the threat of LLWS thru the night. This will steadily subside through the morning hours around dawn as southwesterly surface wind speeds begin to increase again. Strong southwesterly gusts will commonly reach 25 to 35 kts over the region with the weakest wind speeds relegated to far northwestern NM near KFMN. The strongest gusts of 40 to 50 kts will focus along and immediately east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Some patchy blowing dust could also reduce visibilities at some dust prone terminals Monday afternoon, including at KABQ and KROW. An Airport Weather Warning for gusts reaching or just surpassing 35kts may be required for KABQ as well Monday afternoon. Winds begin to taper off in earnest past 00Z Monday evening, with the exception of gusty northerly winds behind a cold front advancing southward along the NM/TX border Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 150 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 A fire weather growing pattern continues to build with widespread critical to locally extreme conditions today and Monday. Today's critical to extreme event, courtesy of an upper low deepening over the Great Basin. This is sending increased southwesterly flow aloft into NM while another deep lee-side surface low takes shape. Critical to locally extreme (particularly in northeast to east central zones) fire weather conditions will persist through the mid evening. Winds will be extremely challenging to pinpoint during the late evening to early morning hours, as the boundary layer will be struggling to decouple while winds aloft keep on strengthening. Many locations may reduce below critical wind speed thresholds by mid evening, but will still be gusty with very poor overnight humidity recovery. Similar to last night, this will pose concerns for a continued overnight threat for fire spread with ongoing fires. Within a couple hours of sunrise, the stronger winds aloft will start mixing down to the surface Monday, quickly escalating the threat for critical to extreme fire behavior. The strongest winds still appear to be focused over the central mountain chain eastward, and more specifically the northeast highlands where gusts will reach 55 to 60 mph. Most of the eastern plains look to plummet to less than 10% RH Monday afternoon, as temperatures will only cool a couple to a few degrees. Consequently, the Fire Wx Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Monday. A backdoor cold front will offer cooler temperatures to eastern NM going into Monday night and Tuesday. While gusty conditions will accompany the front with shifting wind direction, increased dewpoints will arrive with speeds reducing below critical thresholds through the day Tuesday. It will also be breezy in western zones Tuesday with southwesterlies and southeasterlies converging over central NM where wind speeds will be enhanced. Some gusts of 30 to 35 mph will introduce marginal to spotty critical conditions on Tuesday, namely in Rio Grande valley and central highlands/mountains. Into the remainder of the work week, attention will turn to eastern zones where low layer moisture will make a return with a dryline potentially setting up each afternoon, Wednesday through Friday. This will increase storm chances in eastern zones with scattered wetting rain footprints Wednesday before decreasing each subsequent day. Western to central zones will tend to stay dry only high-based cumulus and virga. Fortunately, much lighter winds aloft will lead to much lower prevailing wind speeds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 53 68 39 75 / 0 20 0 0 Dulce........................... 42 64 30 73 / 0 50 0 0 Cuba............................ 42 67 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 44 68 34 74 / 0 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 43 66 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 41 72 37 78 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 43 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 49 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 45 71 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 41 75 37 80 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 42 80 41 84 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 36 57 31 67 / 0 60 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 52 69 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 44 73 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 64 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 35 54 32 61 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 31 62 26 63 / 0 0 0 10 Taos............................ 42 68 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 44 69 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 49 77 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 72 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 76 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 79 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 52 82 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 49 86 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 54 80 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 49 83 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 53 81 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 49 83 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 54 77 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 54 80 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 54 88 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 52 73 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 52 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 50 76 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 43 79 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 47 74 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 49 78 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 49 76 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 56 79 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 53 73 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 42 72 30 63 / 0 0 5 0 Raton........................... 44 76 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 44 78 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 48 73 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 52 83 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 50 78 40 69 /0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 57 88 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 55 84 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 58 91 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 55 89 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 55 91 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 55 88 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 56 92 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 55 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 53 80 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ104-106-109- 121>126. High Wind Watch from 9 AM MDT Monday through Monday evening for NMZ212-214-215-223-227>229. High Wind Watch from 5 AM MDT Monday through Monday evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...24  207 FXUS62 KTAE 180531 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 131 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected through mid week. There is a high chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without cooling/hydration. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms will return mid to late week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that develop. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are about to get underway across the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor as the Apalachee Bay sea breeze moves inland and will later collide with the East Coast sea breeze late this afternoon. There is plenty of instability to work with as temperatures climb into the 90s with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. Additionally there is ample DCAPE this afternoon around 1000 J/kg. Thus, some thunderstorms this afternoon will be capable of strong downbursts, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and maybe some hail. The Storm Prediction Center has the I-75 corridor and Suwannee Valley outlined in a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5). Elsewhere, it will just be a warm and humid day. Showers and storms will gradually fade during the evening, though we may see an outflow boundary develop from the these storms that moves westward late evening, producing a brief period of easterly gusts around 15-25 mph and a few showers. Late tonight into Monday morning, some patchy fog may develop in areas where winds go light to calm overnight. Lows will be quite warm in the mid 60s to low 70s. For Monday, some drier air begins to move in from the east, which will shove our rain chances more toward the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama along the Emerald Coast seabreeze. There will yet again be ample instability and DCAPE for gusty winds with thunderstorms. Otherwise, it will be another hot day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Anomalously strong ridging builds over the eastern US, and some drier air moves over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This will lead to lower rain chances again with hotter temperatures. Tuesday through Thursday will be the hottest days of the week with widespread 90s. The FL Big Bend has a low (10-30%) chance of highs at or above 95 Tuesday and Wednesday. Across the FL counties, where it will be more humid, heat index values could approach 100 in isolated spots. This level of heat could affect those who are sensitive to heat and those who do not have access to adequate cooling or hydration. The ridge begins to flatten somewhat next week as troughing over the western US tries to move eastward. Moisture will also begin to increase again late in the week into the holiday weekend. The summer- like forecast resumes again with it being hot and humid with increasing chances of afternoon pop-up storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Light winds prevail early this morning with VFR conditions expected through the rest of the TAF period for most terminals. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop near ECP and DHN terminals late this afternoon, affecting cigs and vsbys. Winds may be erratic and gusty in and around thunderstorms, along with frequent lightning. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail through the next several days. Easterly nocturnal surges are possible each night through mid-week, with the strongest surges possible tonight and Monday night where winds could briefly reach cautionary levels, especially if outflow boundaries from storms on land move over the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 High dispersions are expected on Monday across the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor as mixing heights climb to near 7,000 feet with easterly transport winds around 10 mph. Elsewhere, winds will be more southerly to southeasterly, but mixing heights will be lower, yielding good dispersions. Scattered showers and storms are possible Monday afternoon in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Lighter transport winds out of the east to southeast are expected Tuesday, then more variable Wednesday. Dispersions both days will be good area wide. Isolated showers and storms will be possible both afternoons as the sea breeze advances inland. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 70 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 86 70 87 70 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 88 67 89 67 / 20 0 10 0 Albany 89 66 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 91 66 91 67 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 94 68 94 69 / 0 0 30 0 Apalachicola 82 73 84 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young  062 FXUS63 KABR 180529 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1229 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk for severe weather (2 of 5) focused across far northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota this afternoon/evening. Marginal Risk for severe weather (1 of 5) includes parts of the northeast and central South Dakota. Main threat is large hail. - Colder air returns Monday through Wednesday, with high temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Temperatures Wednesday morning may drop to near or below freezing, bringing the potential for frost. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Update for 06Z TAF issuance. UPDATE Issued at 856 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 As the cool stable surface layer deepens on north-northwest CAA winds, got one lone (elevated) cell moving northeast into Grant County SD at this time. Maybe some heavy rainfall and pea- sized hail with it presently. Precipitation has been migrating north and east into the far northeast corner of the state over the past several hours. Within a couple of hours, this activity should clear the far northeast corner of the CWA. No changes planned to the tonight period forecast. The potentially coolest area of the CWA overnight looks to be north central South Dakota, while the potentially warmest area looks to be northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota. UPDATE Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 After the first round of showers and storms moved through portions of central SD this morning, most of the forecast area has been in between areas of precipitation with the second round now moving into our south/west zones. This is in association with the next upper wave and inverted sfc trough that has poked northward into central sections of SD. The main low pressure center remains to our south across parts of NE/KS and it is progged to shift northeast by late this afternoon into Sioux Falls/Sioux City area. Of the aforementioned area of precip, an area of stronger elevated convection across north central NE at midday is progged to track northeast into SD through the early afternoon. This area of convection appears to be located around a meso low and attendant cold front that is centered and draped north to south toward the parent low across the NE/KS border. RAP guidance shows an instability gradient set up in the vicinity of this convection across northern NE into far south central SD. This guidance progs this gradient to track northeast from Ainsworth, NE toward Mitchell and Huron SD the first part of the afternoon and then on into our far southeast zones around the Watertown area mid to late afternoon. North of the elevated convection, we see an area of moderate to embedded heavy rain shifting into the Pierre area(I-90 corridor) and points north toward Mobridge. These rains will be just that and not pose any severe threats to central SD through the afternoon. Visible Sat shows extensive cloud cover(mostly stratus) along and west of the James Valley through central SD. Clear to partly cloudy skies have developed across east central and southeast SD which will help to contribute to destabilization and a more favorable environment for strong/severe convection this afternoon. RAP model does prog MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg across east central SD/west central MN by mid to late afternoon with ample bulk shear values of 45-55 kts. CAM solutions track that elevated convection northeast from south central SD into parts of southeast SD with additional development possible to the north that would affect some of our forecast area such as Miller to Redfield, Clark, Watertown and Ortonville through the course of the afternoon hours. The main concern with any of the stronger convective cells will be large hail and damaging winds with a more isolated risk for a tornado or two and of course locally heavy rainfall. By late this afternoon and evening, guidance progs this activity and any generic showers and storms located farther north and west to shift eastward into the James Valley and points east. By early to mid evening, most of the this activity is expected to begin to shift east and out of our forecast area into western MN. A break in the precip is then expected tonight into Monday morning before the next round of moisture shifts north and east back into our region for Monday afternoon and Monday night. This will be more strato-form rainfall with no risk for severe weather expected. Increasing northerly breezes and temperatures cooling into the upper 40s to mid 50s is about as best we be able to manage for Monday. By Tuesday morning, most if not all the precip will be gone and we should be left with mostly dry conditions albeit still cool. This cooler than normal air mass will maintain itself across our area Tuesday night into Wednesday. In fact, we should see 2 overnight's worth of frosty or near frosty like temperatures in the 30s. Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning still looks to be the coldest with forecasted overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. More guidance has latched onto this idea leading to higher confidence that a good portion of our forecast area will see frost. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG IFR to low end MVFR ceilings are forecast through the next 24 hours. Fog is forecast at ATY early this morning (visibility down to 8SM shortly at 05Z Monday. Light rain will dominate the afternoon hours.Expect winds to remain out of the north to north-northwest with gusts of 20-30kts. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...Vipond AVIATION...06  208 FXUS63 KILX 180531 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1231 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Several rounds of convection will impact central Illinois late tonight through Tuesday evening. While all severe weather hazards will be possible, damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph will be the most likely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 *** Round One of Convection *** 19z/2pm regional analysis shows rapid thunderstorm development across eastern South Dakota ahead of a short-wave trough pivoting northeastward from Colorado. As this wave interacts with a frontal boundary draped across the Plains, widespread strong to severe convection will organize into one or more linear structures as it gradually shifts eastward later this evening into the overnight hours. CAMs exhibit a good deal of spread concerning both the coverage and timing of the storms as they cross the Mississippi River well after midnight. The NAM is the fastest model, showing cells potentially arriving across the far NW KILX as early as 09z/4am...while the HRRR continues to lag by a couple of hours. Regardless of which solution pans out, the storms will be entering an environment characterized by ample elevated instability, but weak deep-layer shear. NAM MUCAPEs range from 1500-2500J/kg ahead of the storms, while 0-6km bulk shear is just 25-30kt. Given the elevated nature of the convection, think the primary severe weather risk will be scattered damaging wind gusts from the Mississippi River eastward to the I-55 corridor through late morning. *** Round Two of Convection *** As the broken line of thunderstorms crosses I-55, it will begin to encounter an increasingly unstable airmass across east- central and southeast Illinois where HREF mean SBCAPEs reach 1500-2000J/kg. Once the storms become surface-based, all severe hazards will come into play east of I-55 Monday afternoon, including damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph, hail larger than quarters, and isolated tornadoes. All model solutions show the storms exiting into the Ohio River Valley prior to sunset, followed by mainly quiet conditions across the board through the evening. *** Round Three of Convection *** A similar process to what will happen tonight will unfold Monday night as a vigorous short-wave noted on latest water vapor imagery over Nevada rounds the base of the Rockies trough and generates a renewed round of severe convection from Omaha and Des Moines southwestward to Kansas City late Monday afternoon and evening. These cells will also grow upscale into a line of storms, then progress eastward into west-central Illinois overnight. Damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will be the primary hazards between about 06z/1am and 11z/6am from the Mississippi River eastward to the I-55 corridor. *** Round Four of Convection *** Outflow from the morning storms and/or the approaching synoptic cold front will be the primary focusing mechanisms for additional storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. While the exact generation zone is still in question, am continuing to focus attention on locations east of I-55 for the highest probability of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a couple tornadoes. These storms will depart into Indiana by evening, followed by a period of cooler and much quieter weather conditions Tuesday night through Thursday before the next chance for showers arrives by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Low level wind shear is expected through early morning across central IL as strong SSW winds aloft around 50 kts continue. A line of thunderstorms will continue approaching from the west overnight, anticipated to arrive at KPIA by 12Z, KSPI and KBMI by 14Z, and KDEC/KCMI by 15Z. Have included a 3-hour tempo group for MVFR cigs/vsbys for these thunderstorms, then scattered showers are likely to continue for a few to several hours after the storms, although with generally VFR conditions. Anticipate briefly worse conditions in any of the stronger storms. Winds S 12-20 kts overnight with a few higher gusts. Winds increase to 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts after 12Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...Barnes DISCUSSION...Barnes AVIATION...37  122 FXUS65 KFGZ 180530 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1030 PM MST Sun May 17 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Strong gusty winds are expected into this evening ahead of a cold front, along with areas of critical fire weather conditions. Chances for rain and high elevation snow showers increase later tonight and into Monday morning, mainly across far northern Arizona. Cooler and breezy conditions remain on Monday, before gradually warmer and less windy conditions return for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION...A vigorous shortwave trough and associated cold front was centered over Nevada midday Sunday, rapidly approaching Arizona. For the remainder of today through Monday afternoon strong winds and near-critical to critical fire weather conditions will be the main concern. For this afternoon into the early evening, look for sustained winds of 15-25 mph across all of northern Arizona, with late afternoon/early evening gusts to 45-55 mph over the higher terrain of Yavapai County and from the Mogollon Rim northward. Lower elevations to the south will see gusts in the 30-40 mph range. As a result, much of northern Arizona is under a Wind Advisory into the evening hours. Gusty winds will then linger through the night at 10-20 mph but with gusts of 30-40 mph along and downwind of terrain features. Monday will see the strongest winds shifting eastward with gusts of 35-45 mph likely along and east of a Winslow to Four Corners line. Along with the wind, afternoon and early evening relative humidity values ranging from 10-15% across the northeast corner of Arizona will result in dangerous fire weather conditions with a Red Flag Warning in effect. In addition, the fast moving shortwave will come with moderately strong upward motion. Moisture will be drawn northward today into this evening as the trough approaches but generally will not be enough to produce any showers. The exceptions, the strongest lift and coldest air mass aloft will be along the Arizona/Utah border and this combined with orographic lift over the Kaibab Plateau and Black Mesa could produce a few showers, generally less than 0.10 inches of liquid equivalent. There might even be a brief period of snow showers above 7000 feet toward the Utah border with only minor/brief accumulations. Also, there may be just enough moisture for a few light showers over the western Mogollon Rim where orographic lift will be quite strong with a few brief snow showers possible over the San Francisco Peaks. From Tuesday onward...Weak trough will remain over Arizona. With each passing day look for warming daytime temperatures as the air mass slowly moderates, climbing to slight above seasonal average by Thursday or Friday. Nothing special about the winds just the fairly typical west to southwest winds at 10-20 mph each afternoon. && .AVIATION...Monday 18/06Z through Tuesday 19/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Brief periods of MVFR possible in -SHRA/-SHSN mainly north of a KGCN-KRQE line through 18Z. MVFR CIGS possible near KFLG/KSEZ 08Z-15Z. S-SW winds 15-30 kts with gusts 35-45 kts, subsiding to 10-20 kts after 08Z, then increasing to W-SW 10-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts after 16Z. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 19/06Z through Thursday 21/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions. Variable winds 5-15 kts on Tuesday, then SW-NW 5-15 kts on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Slight chance for light rain/snow showers early Monday morning across far northern Arizona, otherwise dry and cooler with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below mid May averages. Wetting precipitation from these showers is not expected. Winds W-NW 10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph on Monday, variable winds 5-15 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-30% Monday, dropping to 8-20% on Tuesday. Wednesday throughFriday....Dry conditions with temperatures gradually warming to seasonal averages. Winds SW-NW 5-15 mph Wednesday and Thursday, SW-W 10-20 mph on Friday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15% each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ Monday for AZZ004-006- 009-011>017-039-040. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  237 FXUS61 KPHI 180532 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 132 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added a Climate Section, which includes record high and warmest low temperatures for the area through Wednesday. Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A significant warming trend will continue into this week. High temperatures will generally be upward of 10 to 20 degrees above normal, with low to mid 90s expected for many areas Monday through Wednesday. 2. A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, along with moderating temperatures closer to normal by the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A significant warming trend will continue into this week. High temperatures will generally be upward of 10 to 20 degrees above normal, with low to mid 90s expected for many areas Monday through Wednesday. An upper level ridge will continue to build into the eastern US this week, bringing a period of well above normal and summer- like temperatures. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will anchor and strengthen off the coast of the Mid Atlantic. This will result in a very warm south to southwesterly flow for several days bringing the warming trend. The southerly flow continues tonight and it will be relatively mild as a result with lows in the 60s. Coastal areas as well as our N/W zones should get down into the low 60s while the urban corridor will struggle to get below the middle to upper 60s. Temperatures continue to climb into Monday for inland areas with highs generally in the 89 to 94 degree range for eastern PA, inland southern NJ, and Delmarva. However the flow be more out of the south to even southeast, so they'll be more of cooling influence near the coast and even extending a bit farther inland compared to today. This will keep these areas near the coast mainly in the 70s to low 80s. Confidence continues to increase that temperatures on Tuesday will get into the low-mid 90s across most of the region, outside of the immediate coastal areas and higher elevations. This is increasing the chance that areas within the I-95 urban corridor will flirt with heat advisory criteria. Diurnal mixing will likely keep higher dew points at bay during the peak of the heat in the afternoon. Overall, this is still not a high confidence setup. However, with warmer air temperatures, it will not take as much moisture to push heat indicies a few degrees higher and exceed the early season criteria in the urban areas. The heat forecast remains a bit more uncertain for Wednesday, as a faster progression of an approaching front may bring more clouds ahead of the showers and storms, and cap temps and heat indices a bit lower. Regardless, this will still be a period of abnormally warm conditions and getting the area close to record high temperature territory Monday through Wednesday this week. The heat looks to break by Thursday following the cold frontal passage late Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate closer to normal for the remainder of the week and into next weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, along with moderating temperatures closer to normal by the end of next week. As mentioned above, a cold front will approach the area Wednesday and bring an end to the stretch of above normal temperatures by Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front as it passes through the region. Recent guidance trends show the front moving through during the second half of Wednesday into Wednesday night. At this range there is still uncertainties in timing, but if the front moves through during the day Wednesday, then the potential for stronger storms increases as there will be plenty of instability present. Currently, the better forcing looks to be displaced to the north of the front. All of this said, it remains still a bit early to get very specific on the details and extent of the convection, impacts, and hazards. The front then looks to linger nearby or just south of the area on Thursday leading to more potential for showers. By the end of the week and into next weekend, the trend continues to show a more unsettled pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12Z...VFR. Winds mostly calm, if not SSW less than 5 kts. High confidence. Monday...VFR. S to SW winds near 5 kts in the morning, increasing to around 10 kts by 18Z. Winds a little more east of south for ILG, MIV, and ACY, and perhaps as high as 15 kts at times, but not anticipating any prevailing gusts. High confidence. Monday night...VFR. SSW winds 5-10 kts. High confidence. Outlook... Tuesday...VFR prevailing with no significant weather expected. Wednesday through Thursday...Sub-VFR with rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Rain showers may continue into Thursday. Friday...Sub-VFR possible with the chance for rain showers. && .MARINE... Southerly winds increase to around 10 to 15 gusting up to 20 knots by Monday afternoon but the conditions are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory levels. Seas around 3-4 feet. Outlook... Tuesday through Wednesday...Southwest winds increase through the day Tuesday with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by Tuesday afternoon as wind gusts reach near 25 kt. Seas look to start to reach near 5 feet as well Tuesday evening. Seas lessen by Wednesday morning but elevated winds out of the southwest remain through the day Wednesday with gusts near 25 kt. Showers and potentially some isolated thunderstorms move through Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night. Thursday...Conditions expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria by this time but showers may linger. Friday...Conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. There is the chance for some rain showers. Rip Currents... Monday, south-southeast winds will be 10 to 15 mph with breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet. There will be a southeasterly swell with a period of around 8 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk at Delaware Beaches where winds will be more shore parallel. Tuesday, south-southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph with breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet. A southeasterly swell will remain, though the period may be slightly shorter. For now, have opted for a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for all NJ and DE beaches. Important to note that while surface temperatures inland will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, and low to mid 90s Tuesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Near record breaking temperatures are forecast from today through Wednesday. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Record High Temperatures May 18 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 96/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 93/1987 AC Marina (55N) 90/1987 Georgetown (GED) 91/1974 Mount Pocono (MPO) 87/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1986 Wilmington (ILG) 94/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 18 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 70/2017 AC Marina (55N) 66/2017 Georgetown (GED) 72/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/2017 Philadelphia (PHL) 72/2017 Reading (RDG) 67/1900, 1943, & 2017 Trenton (TTN) 71/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 72/2017 Record High Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 97/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1962 AC Marina (55N) 92/1998 Georgetown (GED) 96/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 73/2017 AC Marina (55N) 68/1998 Georgetown (GED) 73/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 Philadelphia (PHL) 74/1877 Reading (RDG) 68/1962 Trenton (TTN) 70/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2017 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996 AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AKL/Fitzsimmons/Staarmann AVIATION...AKL/Fitzsimmons/MPS/Staarmann MARINE...AKL/Cooper/Fitzsimmons/Staarmann  282 FXUS64 KBRO 180533 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1233 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Key Messages: * Daily or near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected through the upcoming workweek and possibly through the end of May as a major shift in the weather pattern takes shape. * Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible through the upcoming workweek. * Hot and humid conditions will take place through Tuesday; maximum heat indices between 105-111F degrees will result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk through Tuesday. * A Small Craft Advisory has been extended till 9 AM CDT Tuesday; a High Risk for Rip Currents may need to be expected till Tuesday as well. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Collaborated higher POPs through Tuesday afternoon with our neighboring office, given showers and thunderstorms actively on radar across the brush country and upper valley. Leaned into more of a diurnal cycle from west to east into Monday morning and Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Building heat with Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk through Tuesday (possibly into Wednesday), and an increasingly unsettled weather pattern punctuating a significant pattern change from dry to wet are the two main weather headlines through the forecast period. We'll first begin talking about the unsettled weather pattern followed by the building heat through midweek. Global computer and AI/ML models/ensembles continues to advertise a significant pattern change from dry to wet beginning this week. A split-flow 500 mb pattern featuring what will become an increasingly active and persistent southwest flow aloft sub-tropical jet or southern branch jet stream is in place. This will serve as a conduit for multiple impulses/perturbations tracking over the region over the next several days. Later in the week through next weekend, there are sings that mid-upper troughing along with multiple impulses/perturbations will undercut high pressure/ridging aloft. This large-scale setup will help to yield incessant day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least next week and maybe through the remainder of May. Closer to the sfc, a frontal boundary will sag southward across the U.S. before stalling and meandering to our north across the southern Plains. More than normal favorable jet dynamics will be in place through next week. Additionally, southerly flow near the sfc will yield a pool of deep tropical moisture helping to increase the atmospheric water content over the region through the week ahead. This is justified with sample maximum precipitable water (PWAT) values between 1.80-2.50 inches, some 1-3 STDEVs above normal and above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology for mid to late May. Furthermore, high instability values will be present through this week with steep mid level lapse rates between 6.5-8.0 C/km, SBCAPE values between 2,000-4,000 J/kg, MLCAPE values between 1,000- 2,000 J/kg, a moderately to very unstable atmosphere with Showalter values ranging between -2 and -6. The combination of a favorable mid-upper level 500 mb steering pattern, favorable jet stream dynamics, high atmospheric moisture content, and high instability will support a noticeable change to a wetter/active weather pattern this week and possibly beyond. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible given the atmospheric and forcing ingredients highlighted above. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted the northwestern half of our area under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. This includes all of Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties, and most of Brooks and Starr Counties in it's latest SWODY3. Given the high atmospheric moisture content available, heavy rainfall and instances of flooding is possible through the week, especially later in the week. This is especially true for slow moving thunderstorms that repeatedly track over the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the entire forecast area or all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall in it's Day 4 (Wednesday) and Day 5 (Thursday) ERO. Most of the convection through next week is anticipated to initiate off the Sierra Madre before possibly rolling off the front range and translating east-northeastward into our CWA. So far, for Monday night, low (20%) chance PoPs are forecasted generally along the Rio Grande Valley. Tuesday night, rain chances increase with low-medium (30-40%) PoPs for showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday-Wednesday night, there is a low-medium (20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday will feature medium (30-60%) chances. By Thursday night, rain chances increase with widespread categorical or medium-high (50-80%) chances. Friday through Saturday, there remain medium (30-60%) chances across Deep South Texas. Finally, Saturday night through next Monday, there exists medium (30-50%) chances. Overall, there generally is a 30-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms through the forecast period with Thursday night yielding the greatest chances between 50-80%. The other news will be the heat! Global forecast models/ensembles continue to depict a strengthening 588-591 dam sub-tropical heat ridge developing over the region early next week. This feature will result in hotter than normal temperatures through Tuesday, and maybe even extending into Wednesday. Forecast high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 90s to lower 100s with the hottest temps west of IH-69C/US-281. Dewpoints in the mid 70s will result in max heat indices or apparent temperature values climbing to between 105-111F degrees on both Monday and Tuesday. These values will result in Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk both days. Cloud over will be a factor in these temperatures being realized. By Wednesday, the aforementioned heat ridge relaxes which should result in a slightly cooler day. Shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday as well as cloud cover could also play a role in the slightly lower temperatures from Monday and Tuesday. Nonetheless, it will be another warmer than normal day with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. With heat indices ranging between 100-108F degrees, Heat Risk scores will be mainly Moderate (Level 2 of 4) over the region on Wednesday. Thursday through next Sunday, high temperatures will range between the upper 80s to lower 90s. This largely will be due to the shower and thunderstorm chances during this timeframe. Tonight through Tuesday night, overnight lows are progged to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wednesday night through next Sunday night, overnight lows are expected to be mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR conditions are generally expected to give way to VFR ceilings by mid-morning with breezy to windy southeasterly winds persisting through much of the TAF period. MVFR ceilings return overnight. There is a low to medium chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms over the next few hours, especially near MFE, and again near the end of the TAF period, also from the west. && .MARINE... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A Small Craft Advisory has been extended till Tuesday morning due to continued breezy southeasterly winds and elevated wave heights. Outside of the threat for showers and thunderstorms, Tuesday through Wednesday, adverse (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions are possible. Again, outside of the threat for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through next Sunday, marine conditions are expected to improve with moderate seas and low to moderate winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 94 81 92 / 20 20 20 10 HARLINGEN 79 95 79 93 / 20 20 40 10 MCALLEN 81 97 79 94 / 30 20 30 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 98 78 95 / 30 20 40 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 86 81 85 / 20 20 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 92 80 90 / 20 20 30 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through this evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ UPDATE...56-Hallman SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...56-Hallman  280 FXUS64 KSJT 180533 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1233 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures expected through Monday. - Severe Storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The relatively quiet period before a busier rest of the week. Moist and unstable air mass remains across the area with CAPE values of 3000+ J/kg, but also fairly strongly capped with very warm mid level temperatures. Dryline will mix east to near the western border of the area and there will be some convergence along the dryline, but CAMs suggest not enough to overcome the cap. Will leave POPs out of the forecast for this. Will include some low POPs across the southeast counties where better low level moisture and a weaker cap suggest that a few showers and storms may develop across Mexico and cross through the Hill Country this evening. Will include a mention of isolated POPs down there. Dry for Monday for now, except for a small area across the northwest Big Country. Most of the CAMs are dry, but NAMNEST has been persistent in showing some convection developing during the morning hours and shift east across the area. Cap remains strong and will likely hold, but given the persistence from the NAMNEST will include a small POP over that area. Otherwise, breezy and warm to continue with highs into the upper 80s and lower 90s across many area. Behind the dryline across the northwest Big Country, may see a few readings near the century mark. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The long term forecast continues to look active from Tuesday through the end of the week. Monday night, as southwesterly flow increases ahead of a large western trough, thunderstorms will be possible along a retreating dryline mainly along our western border in the Big Country. On Tuesday, as an upper level trough moves east/southeast through the northern plains and southern Canada toward the Great Lakes, a cold front will move south into west Texas. Depending on the timing of the front, unstable air to the south (surface based CAPEs approaching 4000 J/kg) of the front will combine with forcing along the boundary, and southwest flow aloft to potentially produce a broken line of showers and storms moving south through our area. Some of these storms could be strong enough to produce large hail and damaging winds, and the SPC has placed most of the CWA in a Slight Risk for severe weather. Depending on the speed of the front, these storms could last into the evening hours Tuesday. From Wednesday through the end of the week, we will remain under southwesterly flow, with periodic shortwaves moving through embedded within the flow. The cold frontal boundary is expected to become stalled in the area as well. With plenty of Gulf moisture still in place due to the front being stalled, and upper level energy moving across the area, we should see at least one more, if not a couple more, rounds of thunderstorms with the best chances for more widespread precipitation from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. The details surrounding severe weather potential with these storms will become more apparent in the next few days. The other concern with this additional rainfall will be the potential for flooding, especially for areas that receive significant precipitation on Tuesday. High temperatures will cool off into mainly the 80s on Tuesday, with 70s and 80s for highs from Wednesday through Friday, and warmer temperatures next weekend. Although afternoon highs willbe cooler, with plenty of moisture still in place, overnight lows will likely average in the 60s through most of the long term. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Breezy south winds continue with winds up to 30 kts at KABI and 20-25KTS farther south. MVFR stratus had already developed over southern terminals and will spread north to KSJT and KABI overnight. Stratus will rise or scatter out to VFR midday to early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 93 73 87 64 / 20 20 80 70 San Angelo 94 72 93 63 / 10 20 70 70 Junction 90 73 91 65 / 10 0 60 80 Brownwood 89 72 88 64 / 10 10 70 70 Sweetwater 99 72 88 62 / 20 20 80 60 Ozona 93 72 90 64 / 10 0 60 60 Brady 88 72 89 65 / 10 10 70 80 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...04  419 FXUS61 KBGM 180537 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 137 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strengthening ridge of high pressure will be our main feature today and tomorrow leading to above average temperatures and increasing humidity. A few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow afternoon. 2) A cold front will bring the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, then cooler conditions return for the second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure anchored near Bermuda and a strengthening upper level ridge off the southeast coast will build northward today through tomorrow. This will allow southwesterly flow to settle over the region, promoting strong warm air advection and increasing dew points. As a result summer like conditions are expected for the start of the week with highs climbing into the mid 80s to low 90s. Forecast highs are near daily records, with record highs of 87 at KBGM both days, 93 Monday and 92 Tuesday at KAVP, and 90 Monday and 92 Tuesday at KSYR. Although yesterdays NBM guidance appeared too warm, observed high temperatures ended up closer to the NBM output than expected. However, with the NBM still running warmer than most guidance, the ongoing trend of slightly lowering maximum temperatures was continued for today and tomorrow, especially with NBM forecasting temperatures above daily records. As mentioned, dew points will be on the rise, reaching the low to mid 60s today and tomorrow, with some spots even reaching the upper 60s tomorrow afternoon, so the humidity will be noticeable. However there remains some uncertainty in whether scattered clouds and isolated showers or thunderstorms to pop up during the afternoon and early evening hours today and tomorrow as a couple of weak waves embedded in the flow around the ridge move through. Both the GFs and ECMWF continue to show an EML plume moving into the region this afternoon, with NAM guidance indicating CAPE values approaching 2000 J/Kg along with steep lapse rates. Despite the instability in place, model soundings continue to show a cap associated with the ridge axis overhead, which should largely suppress convective development. That said, if any storms are able to break the cap, the environment could support a few isolated severe storms. KEY MESSAGE 2... The next opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms will be with a cold front moving into the region on Wednesday. Model guidance continues to show the bulk of the convection moving through from midday through the afternoon. With the showers moving through earlier over the northwestern portion of our region, there will be a relatively large temperatures gradient with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s over the Finger Lakes region NY and highs in the low to mid 80s over the Pocono Mountain region PA. If everything can come together, some locally strong to severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out for the afternoon and early evening especially across NE PA and the southern Catskills. Cooler temperatures follow behind the front with highs returning to the mid 50s to mid 60s by the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 06z TAF period. There is a small chance that ELM/ITH/SYR/RME could see brief MVFR - IFR fog during the predawn hours, but probability of occurrence is low at this point, so it was left out of the forecast. With dewpoints in the upper 50s, if the temperature can drop quickly enough, then some brief patchy fog could occur, but as mentioned, this probability is low and will pick up in the lower atmosphere through the early morning hours, mixing out any saturation that may occur at the surface. Outlook: Monday night...Mainly VFR; slight chance for afternoon isolated showers/thunderstorms with brief MVFR/IFR restriction possible. Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief restrictions. Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves into the area. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DK/ES AVIATION...KL  418 FXUS62 KMLB 180537 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 137 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 - Isolated to scattered shower and storm development is forecast each afternoon across east central Florida through this week. - A Moderate HeatRisk is forecast to gradually spread across east central Florida through this week due to warm temperatures; adequate hydration and breaks from the heat will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors. - High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at ALL central Florida Atlantic beaches tonight. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Through Tonight...An area of high pressure centered across the western Atlantic just offshore the Mid-Atlantic and Carolina coasts will remain in place through the rest of today and into the overnight hours. This high will help keep a drier air mass in place from 850 mb to 400 mb as well as persistent onshore flow across east central Florida. This set-up has allowed for ample daytime heating today, with values remaining on track to reach the upper 80s along the coast and the low 90s across the interior. In some spots, the convective temperature has already been reached for the day, with some isolated shower and storm activity developing just northwest of the Orlando metro. Shower and storm development will continue to be possible through this afternoon, with the greatest coverage of activity forecast to remain west of the Orlando metro (20-40% chance), primarily across the far western portions of Lake, Osceola, Orange, and Okeechobee counties and outside of the forecast area. Aloft, 500 mb temperatures remain between -11 to -9C across east central Florida and the dry layer between 800-450 mb has caused DCAPE to exceed 800 J/kg across most of the area. Additionally, the ample daytime heating has resulted in plentiful instability. Moisture remains a limiting factor for development, with PWATs generally in the 1-1.2" range based on the latest Total PWAT satellite imagery. If any storm activity does manage to develop, frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts to 45 mph, small hail, and brief heavy downpours would be the primary storm threats. Activity will move westward through the afternoon and evening hours, with persistent easterly flow aloft helping to prevent any pushback to the east coast. Showers and storms are forecast to diminish into the evening hours. Drier conditions are forecast into the overnight hours across east central Florida, with onshore flow persisting as the high remains in place across the western Atlantic. Temperatures overnight are forecast to fall into the upper 60s to upper 70s, with the coolest spots being focused near rural portions of east central Florida. A high risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida beaches overnight. Entering the ocean is not advised, even moreso at night. Monday-Sunday...High pressure is forecast to stay situated offshore across the western Atlantic waters through the extended period. The high is anticipated to weaken and even slide eastward mid to late week as a frontal boundary approaches and stalls across the southeastern US Thursday through the end of the week, but locally, this will result in little change to the persistent forecast. Onshore flow will remain the dominant flow areawide, with adequate daytime heating leading to the development and push inland of a diffuse east coast sea breeze each afternoon. Wind speeds will be enhanced each afternoon by the sea breeze, reaching sustained values of 10 to 15 mph at times across the interior and along the coast. Isolated to scattered shower and storm coverage is forecast each day, with the highest chances focused primarily across the interior west of I-95 (30-50%). The persistent onshore flow will result in increasing moisture across the area, with guidance indicating a surge of moisture reaching the area into next weekend. This has led to an uptick in rain chances Saturday and Sunday (40-60%), but there does remain some level of uncertainty being so far out in time. The persistent onshore flow will maintain a similar temperature pattern to today, with highs in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and reaching the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. Overnight temperatures will remain generally in the 70s, with some rural locations potentially falling into the upper 60s. Increasing coverage of Moderate HeatRisk across east central Florida is forecast through the extended period, so visitors and residents alike are encouraged to be mindful if spending extended periods of time outdoors; stay hydrated and take breaks in shaded or air- conditioned locations. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Surface high pressure will remain north of the local Atlantic waters through the forecast period, resulting in persistent onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots and seas generally remaining between 2 to 4 feet. Brief wind surges to 15 to 20 knots may lead to short periods of poor boating conditions across the offshore waters through Tuesday with seas reaching 5 feet at times, but overall, generally favorable boating conditions are anticipated through a majority of the period. A diffuse east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop each afternoon, resulting in wind surges each afternoon along the intracoastal waterways and along the coast. Isolated to scattered shower and storm development will be possible along the sea breeze, though the highest coverage is anticipated to occur primarily across the Florida peninsula. Persistent onshore flow at the surface and aloft should help prevent any build-back of showers and storms towards the local waters into the evening hours, though conversely the prevailing onshore flow may result in some isolated to scattered marine shower development through the overnight and early morning hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 137 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR through the period. East winds increase to 12-15 kts during the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Most terminals remain dry, although VCSH is mentioned at FPR/SUA after 12Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 High pressure will remain situated across the western Atlantic through this week, resulting in persistent onshore flow across east central Florida. While this flow will keep moisture well above critical thresholds, easterly winds of 10 to 15 mph gusting to 25 mph at times will keep fire weather conditions sensitive over the next several days. Additionally, the chance of storm development and specifically the potential for lightning strikes will lead to an increased concern for new fire sparks. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 75 87 74 / 0 10 20 10 MCO 89 73 89 73 / 20 10 30 0 MLB 86 77 86 77 / 20 20 20 10 VRB 86 76 87 76 / 30 20 30 10 LEE 91 72 90 72 / 10 0 30 0 SFB 90 73 89 72 / 10 10 30 0 ORL 90 73 89 73 / 10 10 30 0 FPR 86 76 86 75 / 30 20 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Law  433 FXUS63 KGRB 180538 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1238 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall possible at times through Monday night. Timing and coverage of severe storms still uncertain beyond tonight. - Drier and cooler weather returns mid to late week. Frost or freeze headlines may be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Round of strong to severe thunderstorms are main focus through Monday night. What a difference a day makes. Surface warm front still to the south and with northeast winds, temps are stuck in the 40s to lower 50s. Springtime in the Great Lakes. Despite near stable cold layer, elevated instability into WI has supported organized storms that are now as close as southern Fox Valley to the lakeshore. These storms are being forced by MCV that came out of IA earlier this morning. Based on radar trends and near term CAMS, expect initial showers/tsra to impact the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas through late this afternoon (4-5p). Then as 850mb front lifts north with approaching low-level jet and elevated instability, could see additional development of showers and storms through the evening. Lack of MCV/velocity enhancement and sfc warm sector still well to the south suggests that hail would be the primary hazard with this activity. Attention this evening eventually turns to developing cluster of severe storms along NE/SD border as many CAMS indicate this will grow upscale and ride eastward, arriving over western WI after midnight. If this line of storms hold together they would be supported by increasing low-level shear and could pose a damaging wind threat as they push into western and north-central cwa overnight. At the least, wind gusts over 40 mph and heavy downpours can be expected. As this moves through, sfc warm front will finally be arriving into our area from the south. If this front is a little faster moving to the north, would be a better shot at sfc based severe storms/damaging winds. Still will ride with working theory supported by good portion of near term guidance that in wake of the overnight showers and storms and in a more capped warm sector, there could be a min in showers and thunderstorms during the day on Monday. Will be warmer day and the most humid day in a while (dewpoints well into the 60s). Going to have to watch if there is an outflow layed out by the overnight convection as this could lead to additional convective initiation (CI). Also, some models still graze southeast area (OSH, MTW) with round of showers and storms late morning through early afternoon. Given the extent of instability that will be present by that time (MLCAPEs up to 2000J/kg), strong to severe storms could occur. Chance pops cover the scenario on Monday for now with details to still be resolved. Primary cold front shifts through late Monday night or even Tuesday morning. Still hints of pre-frontal sfc trough, waves of low pressure moving through ahead of the front, perhaps modulated by upstream convection. Cannot rule out severe storms late Monday evening or even overnight Monday night as any lift from these mechanisms will be interacting with MUCAPE of 1500-2500J/kg and 0-1km shear over 30 kts. The stronger low-level shear ahead of the main cold front could offset the typical downward trend in severe potential that typically is seen deeper into the night. No qualms with SPC Day2 slight risk. Cold front sweeps through Tuesday morning with residual chance of showers and a few storms. All this comes to an end by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday will be a breezy day as southerly winds shift to the northwest. Temps over eastern WI will remain above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s. Readings will stay in the 40s and 50s in Vilas County. Small chances of showers and storms return late week into the weekend. Main issue this week will be potential for frost or freeze headlines Tuesday night and Wednesday night. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected overnight as a line of convection moves in from the west. Isolated severe storms are possible in central and north-central WI within this line through ~09Z, with hail and wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph. However, the threat for severe storms at any one location is low. The more likely hazard is brief, heavy rain. Timed out best window for TSRA at each TAF site and included PROB30 groups. Meanwhile, mainly LIFR conditions are expected through the night due to low clouds and fog. Some improvement from south to north late tonight as a warm front lifts north. Thunderstorm potential should diminish by ~12Z Monday morning, with some lingering showers through mid-morning. Uncertainties arise after this, but the general consensus shows a cap in place for Monday which would limit any thunderstorm develop during the afternoon and evening, along with MVFR and VFR flying conditions. There is a greater threat for storms after 03Z/Tue as another line develops to the west and moves into the area. LLWS develops continues overnight and diminishes around 12-13Z. Easterly surface winds will veer to the south overnight, becoming southwest on Monday. Gusts up to 25 kts are possible at times. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......KLJ  491 FXUS66 KPDT 180539 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1039 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain and snow showers and slight chance (10-15 percent) of thunder over Wallowa County today. Very low (5-10 percent) chance of showers and thunder elsewhere. - Mostly dry and warming conditions region-wide Monday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Scattered rain and snow showers are ongoing across Wallowa County this afternoon as an upper-level trough digs southeast over the Great Basin, placing the Pacific Northwest under a cool northerly flow aloft. Through afternoon, there are low (10-15 percent) chances of thunder for Wallowa County, but have yet to observe any convection deep enough to produce lightning. Elsewhere, there are low (5-10 percent) chances of rain showers and thunder across the Washington Cascades and portions of south-central Washington and far northern Oregon. Monday through Saturday, warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions are forecast region-wide as an upper-level ridge of high pressure will likely (90-95 percent chance) build into the region from the Pacific and dominate the weather. A couple weak shortwaves passing through northwesterly flow aloft may facilitate some isolated showers for the mountains, but PoPs are low (generally 5-10 percent, except 15-35 percent for the northern Blues and Wallowa County on Monday). Breezy westerly winds are forecast through the Cascade gaps each day of the week, but not anticipating a need for any wind headlines. Thursday and Saturday have the highest chances (10-40 percent, and 20-60 percent, respectively) of reaching advisory-level winds through wind-prone areas of the lower elevations, primarily the eastern Columbia River Gorge, north- central Oregon, the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Kittitas Valley. The alternate, less-likely scenario (a closed low from Canada, with cool, showery weather between Wednesday and Thursday) from yesterday's discussion appears to have almost entirely dropped out of the ensemble envelope of solutions and does not appear in any cluster of ensemble solutions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue with sustained winds of 10-15 mph through the forecast period. No significant CIG or VIS issues at any sites. A few showers located just north of PSC and ALW will continue to dissipate going into the later evening hours. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 39 69 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 43 69 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 42 75 45 78 / 10 0 0 0 YKM 42 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 41 73 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 39 68 41 70 / 10 10 10 0 RDM 29 68 31 73 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 33 64 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 30 65 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 44 73 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...95  580 FXUS62 KFFC 180541 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 141 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along the GA/AL border, but coverage will be much less than yesterday. - Warmer temperatures the next few days with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Increased rain chances return from Wednesday into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This morning through Tuesday) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun May 18 2026 Another warm day expected this afternoon as temperatures rise into the upper 80s and low 90s. The best chance for afternoon thunderstorms has shifted to the west, though a few isolated thunderstorms are possible along the GA/AL border this afternoon. Coverage seems to be significantly less than yesterdays storms. The forecast for Tuesday is a bit of a carbon copy for today though with increasing afternoon clouds out a head of the cold front that's expected to bring the next round of weather. You can find more information about that system in the long term below. Winds will remain southerly at 5-10mph with some higher gusts in the higher elevations of northern Georgia. Overnight lows will be pleasantly in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Initial ridging at the surface and aloft on Tuesday keeps things dry and warm, but the forecast will be trending toward a more unsettled pattern with more opportunities for rainfall thereafter. By Wednesday afternoon and evening, a cold front will push southeastward toward far north Georgia. The highest PoPs will be relegated to these areas in proximity to the frontal forcing with drier conditions initially favored farther southeast. The front makes only limited southward progress by Thursday into north Georgia as upper support departs northeastward from the Great Lakes into Quebec. As such, diurnally-enhanced PoPs should again be highest along/north of the I-20 corridor. Flow aloft then transitions into southwest flow by late week as the front becomes stationary. Weak shortwaves within this flow will enhance convective coverage headed into the weekend, particularly with the aid of diurnal heating. Coverage again will likely be highest across roughly the northern half of the area through this period. The organized severe threat continues to look low given the summer-like weakly sheared environment, a couple of strong to isolated severe storms certainly can't be ruled out. While locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, the lack of a widespread and persistent soaking rainfall will limit the overall impact on the drought through the forecast period. Temperatures remain generally several degrees above normal (highs in the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s on the warmest days and lows in the 60s), though marginally cooler highs are possible late week given increased clouds and convective coverage. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Mostly clear skies will continue until after 10Z. Rain from yesterday may result in some low clouds near sunrise. A TEMPO for BKN IFR cigs runs from 10 to 13Z. A CU field with SCT low VFR will form after 15Z. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium on IFR Cigs. High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 63 89 65 91 / 0 0 0 10 Atlanta 66 87 68 89 / 0 0 0 30 Blairsville 60 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 50 Cartersville 64 88 64 88 / 0 0 10 50 Columbus 66 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 20 Gainesville 63 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 20 Macon 63 90 65 91 / 0 0 0 10 Rome63 88 63 87 / 0 0 10 60 Peachtree City 64 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 30 Vidalia 64 91 66 92 / 0 10 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...Vaughn  546 FXUS63 KGID 180540 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1240 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather is likely this afternoon and evening, mainly in areas along/east of Highway 281. All severe threats are possible (large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes), mainly in the 5pm-10pm window. - Portions of northern Kansas and perhaps the Highway 81 corridor in Nebraska have one more chance for severe storms on Monday afternoon. The rest of the area will be noticably cooler with only a few showers expected. - Cooler-than-normal conditions are expected through midweek. Then we gradually trend warmer (with more rain chances) late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The main concern in this forecast revolves around severe convection today and on Monday. Currently, most of the area is in the warm sector, with a cold front pushing in from the west, and a dryline/triple-point expected to push in from the southwest this afternoon. The eastern half of the area should be quite unstable by late afternoon, the MLCAPE values likely in the 2000-4000 J/kg range. If anything, CAMs have trended a bit further west with storm initiation...possibly as early as 4pm...but becoming more likely by around 5pm in the Highway 281 corridor. Strong deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercells, potentially merging into multiple line segments later into the evening hours. Confidence in coverage is highest in northern parts of the area and southern portions of the area, areas to the south and east of Hastings may not Generally the entire area near/east of Highway 281 has some threat for tornado today, although the highest risk is expected to be north and east of Grand Island where low-level shear is maximized. Sig-tor parameter (STP) values of 5-7+ are forecast by the RAP/mesoanalysis, which is a quite substantial indicator of tornado potential. A storm or two may approach western areas later this evening, but are expected to weaken as the move into the area in the 8-10pm timeframe. Most of our Nebraska counties should be storm-free by 8-9pm, but southern portions of the area have potential for a longer-duration event, with storms continuing to build near and just north of I-70. If this occurs, localized flooding is possible (mainly Mitchell/Osborne counties), although this will depend exactly on where storms setup. Monday will start off cloudy and relatively cool, with potentially some showers/drizzle in the morning and early afternoon. An additional round of convection is expected to develop along the stalled front. Less of the area is expected to be impacted than today and Saturday, but nevertheless, portions of northern KS, along with the Hwy 81 corridor could see severe storms in the 3-8pm timeframe. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9pm today for southwestern zones that are expected to see a quick burst of dry air behind the dryline this afternoon. After today, the overall fire weather threat is relatively low for the rest of this week. Not much time was spent on the longer-range forecast. Temperatures remain below-normal through midweek, then gradually warm back up into the Memorial Day weekend. Rain/t-storm chances also return to the forecast by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: At least Low-end MVFR ceilings are expected to dominate the 6z TAF period as a low deck of broken to overcast stratus remains lock in overhead. Ceiling will gradually lower through the night, reaching high end IFR levels just after sunrise (12-14z). KGRI may even drop into low-end IFR and LIFR between 16-20z. A period of drizzle to light rain is expected to impact both terminals between 14 and 19z. There is a low-end chance for a thunderstorm to be in the KGRI vicinity between 22-2z. Otherwise, winds will remain out of a northerly direction through the day (340-030 degrees) with speeds sustaining near 15-20kts and gusting as high as 25-35kts. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Stump  560 FXUS64 KAMA 180540 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1240 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - High-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions persist on Monday. - Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Tuesday night and extending through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Currently, a dryline boundary over the eastern combined Panhandles has begun its retreat west. Although we have observed isolated attempts at convective initiation, updrafts have not been able to sustain as convection moves off the boundary. Tonight, RH recovery is dependent on both a weak cold front in the north and the retreating dryline in the east. Current guidance points toward a weak cold front pushing into the Oklahoma Panhandle tonight, which would bring with it increased RH values and a W to even NW wind shift in the western OK Panhandle and NW TX Panhandle. This weak cold front, and the dryline retreating west overnight could put the majority of of the Panhandles in decent (greater than 50%) Rh recovery. However, it will likely leave the western TX and north-central TX Panhandle counties in quite poor RH recovery overnight (20-30%). An upper-level trough will swing from the southwestern US, through the 4-corners, and into the plains through the course of tonight and tomorrow. This will re-establish a lee-side surface low pressure system in eastern CO. The cold front that pushes into the northern CWA tonight will retreat as southerly/southwesterly winds strengthen to the south of the front and the low strengthens. As the low strengthens, and 850 mb support arrives in the form of a LLJ around 35-40 kts, surface winds are expected to respond with intensification in the Panhandles. Sustained winds could reach 30-35 mph across the Panhandles, with gusts up to 50 mph. Minimum RH's as low as 4%, with widespread minimums of 5-10% across the combined Panhandles will lead to critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions across the Panhandles. Thee dryline on Monday will push east throughout the day, and CAMs are in agreement that there will likely not be enough forcing present along it to initiate convection. However, a cold strong cold front is expected to push through the area on Monday night. The cold front will enter the OK Panhandle around 7-8 PM, reaching Amarillo around 10-11 PM. This cold front will bring increased relative humidity, but with the strength of the cold front and the tightening of the associated surface pressure gradient as it pushed through, it will likely bring some continued breezy post frontal winds from the north. So, although RH's will improve, winds will stay breezy (20-25 mph sustained) behind the front on Monday night. The cold front will knock down temperatures on Tuesday across the Panhandles. Low temperatures Tuesday morning could reach the low 30's in the NW CWA, while high temperatures will dip below average for most of the CWA. Ferguson && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Southwesterly flow aloft will persist for the majority of the forecast period. With a deeper trough axis in the SW, with the base extending south of CA, the surface level response to shortwave perturbations will likely be low-pressure centers in NM rather than CO. This would place us in the true warm sector of a weather pattern. This signal seems to persist from Wednesday through at least Saturday at this time. Greater confidence in severity and timing of showers or thunderstorms will be gained in the short term, as the atmosphere will likely still be recovering from the last weather system, persistent cloud cover could reduce severe chances, and the signal/synoptic support for this system is less forthright than the last. However, the signal is there, and if the atmosphere is able to build instability and avoid workover from multiple days of weather, showers and thunderstorms (possibly severe) are on the table. Ferguson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will be out of the southwest at 10-20 kts to start, increasing to 20-30 kts with gusts around 40 kts starting around 16-17Z through about 00Z Tuesday before diminishing to 10-20 kts by the end of the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 As of late tonight, present radar and ground observations where already seeing the dryline retreat west with some observation sites reporting relative humidity values above 50 percent. Present CAMs have the line stopping roughly around eastern most edge of the Panhandles’ western most counties. Much like last night, the final resting place of the dry line will be important as areas west of it will see very poor overnight relative humidity recovery that could only reach as high as 20%. However unlike last night, the northern Panhandles look to have add complexity in the form of a weak cold front. Based on the latest CAMs, and it current position, this front looks to move into the Oklahoma Panhandles roughly around midnight to 2 AM and stall somewhere in the northern most row of Texas counties. Areas behind this front will see winds shift to a more northerly direction for the overnight, but with speeds on the lighter side (10 to 15 mph). Instead this front will actually be a benefit as it will have the potential to collapse the dry line for a period of time giving the north an opportunity at great overnight recovery of relative humidity values in the 60 to 75 percent range. The only thing that will need to be watched is that winds could stay breezy in the south central and eastern portions of the Texas Panhandles for the overnight period. Moving into Monday will a very similar set-up to what was seen yesterday with dryline looking to once again surge into our east. This will see many counties bottom out once again with relative humidity in the single digits that afternoon and evening. However, the still present upper-level jet support as well as the approaching cold front that night, will see an added boost to our winds for the day. At this time present guidance is showing strong indication that southwesterly to southerly winds could reach speeds up to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph not out of the question. Meanwhile to our east, we will need to monitor the where dryline officially stops for that afternoon as it is once again a prime forcing mechanism for any thunderstorm potential for the day, which could lead to more lightning started wildfires and erratic and gusty outflow winds. As for the expected cold front, present timing from the CAMs has it arriving in the Oklahoma Panhandle as early as 7 PM Monday evening with a more likely time of around 8 to 9 PM. The arrival of this front will aid in seeing relative rapidly rise across the Panhandles, but at the cost of seeing winds shift a northerly direction with speeds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts upwards of 30 mph during the overnight period. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT tonight for TXZ001>020-317. Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317. OK...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT tonight for OKZ001>003.Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...29  537 FXUS65 KPSR 180540 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1040 PM MST Sun May 17 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread breezy to locally windy conditions are expected this afternoon through this evening, and will continue tonight through early Monday morning across Southeast California following a cold front. - Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated for a few hours this afternoon and evening for the Eastern Arizona higher terrain, where a Red Flag Warning will be in effect. - Afternoon high temperatures will be near normal today and then drop to 4 to 6 degrees below normal for Monday and Tuesday before slowly warming back up again. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Broad troughing continues to encompass the Western CONUS with breezy to windy conditions again today and into early Monday morning. Another shortwave will be dropping south through NV this afternoon and evening before progressing eastward across UT and CO Monday morning. The pressure gradient will tighten in response leading to another wave of breezy to windy conditions lasting well into late this evening. Gusts across the entire CWA will generally be between 25-35 mph tonight with even stronger gusts (40+ mph) in southeast CA, and the higher terrain areas. In Imperial County downsloping winds this afternoon/evening can even push gusts upwards of 50 mph. Additionally, a dry cold front is expected to drop south through southeast CA and southwest AZ tonight with rather strong N-NW post-frontal winds, especially across eastern Riverside County where gusts up to 40-50 mph are possible. Due to these factors a Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Imperial Valley area and then an additional Wind Advisory will begin for Riverside County and along the Colorado River Valley near midnight tonight, lasting into the morning hours. The area of most concern during this time will be along I-10, especially between Desert Center and the Indio Valley, where HREF probabilities of peak wind gusts >50 mph are maximized (60%), and can result in blowing dust and reduced visibilities. These gusty winds this afternoon and evening will not only affect the western region but in the eastern higher terrain areas leading to elevated and marginally critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for southern Gila County and the Tonto National Forest where afternoon and evening winds are forecast to be strongest in combination with minimum RHs of 10-15% and dry fuels. Otherwise, as the shortwave troughs pass just to the north of our region temperatures will also be affected, with high temperatures today in the low to mid 90s, or right around normal for this time of year. Temperatures drop further for Monday with lower deserts likely failing to reach 90F. There will also be a narrow band of PBL moisture and forcing along and just ahead of the cold front Monday morning. Enough to at least lead to some lower clouds in south- central AZ near sunrise, otherwise skies will be mostly clear. Additionally, there are a couple HREF members producing a few sprinkle showers out of these clouds, but overall PoP is under 10%. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As the potent weekend shortwave trough departs the Mountain West, to drive severe weather in the Plains, a measure of broad cyclonic flow over the Western U.S. will remain and likely persist through the remainder of the upcoming work week. Heights aloft will rebound though, closer to seasonal averages, and so temperatures are expected to warm through the middle of the week, with seasonally dry conditions continuing. Meanwhile, a strong midlevel ridge will remain nearly stationary off the Pacific Northwest Coast through much of next week, with most global guidance showing a subtropical jet forming under the ridge and developing a few weak disturbances. A few of which may be sent downstream and near/over the Southwest U.S.. Regardless of the details and how weak troughing over the West- Central CONUS eventually resolves, essentially all solutions currently show the region remaining completely dry, with periods of mid-high level clouds and slowly warming temperatures through the work week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0540Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation concerns will be a brief period of lower clouds (04-05 kft AGL) tomorrow morning. SW winds with around 8-13 kt will continue into the overnight hours. There is still low confidence in winds going SE during the overnight hours and may be more southerly. This shift is expected between 09-11Z. A early shift to SW winds is expected by 14-15Z, with winds picking up speed into the teens during the afternoon. Some occasional gusts into the upper teens are possible during the afternoon and early evening hours. FEW high clouds will gradually move out overnight, with FEW- SCT CU as low as 4-5 kft AGL expected to develop around sunrise, but are only expected to last for a few hours. Then mostly clear skies are expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Periods of gusty winds will be the main aviation weather concerns throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, wind gusts of 20-25 kts will continue over the next couple hours before decreasing to around 10-15 kt. At KBLH, SW winds with speeds of 10-15 kt will continue for the next couple hours. A cold front will enter the area from the N-NW and switch winds abruptly at KBLH overnight (around 08-09Z) and at KIPL (around 13Z) early tomorrow morning. Brief visibility restrictions, due to blowing/lofted dust, will be possible initially at KBLH as the cold front moves through the area. Winds at both terminals will then remain out of the N-NW for the remainder of the TAF period. Gusts of 20-25 kt are expected at KBLH from the early morning through the early evening. FEW high clouds will clear out overnight with mostly clear skies expected the rest of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated and marginally critical fire weather conditions are expected through this afternoon and evening for a few hours as winds increase across the region. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for southern Gila County and the Tonto National Forest for this afternoon through this evening. The winds will steadily increase through the afternoon, with peak wire weather conditions (strongest winds and lowest RH) likely between 1500-2000MST. Wind gusts in the warned area will peak around 25-35 mph and RH values will minimize around 10-15%. While RH increases above critical levels after 2000MST the elevated breezes are likely to continue through midnight, which may make controlling any new/existing fires challenging. Wind gusts up to 25-35 mph will be common across all districts this afternoon, but will be strongest across southeast CA with westerly sundowner winds in Imperial County up to 40-50 mph and northerly gusts up to 35-50 mph across much of eastern Riverside County later tonight through early Monday following a cold front passage around midnight. There will be very dry air following the front that will create elevated fire conditions across Riverside County, even during the overnight hours. Minimum RH values will be closer to 15-20% across the western districts. Lingering northerly breeziness down the Lower Colorado River is expected Monday, but this gradient wind should weaken heading into the afternoon and winds elsewhere Monday afternoon will be weaker than today with gusts up to 15-25 mph. Beyond Monday, weather conditions will be seasonally hot and dry (Min RHs around 5-15%), with winds mostly reaching up to 15-25 mph in the afternoons. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ133. CA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for CAZ560-561-564-568>570. Wind Advisory until 1 AM PDT Monday for CAZ562. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ563-566-567. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict/Ryan LONG TERM...Benedict/Whittock AVIATION...Berislavich FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Ryan  636 FXUS64 KTSA 180542 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1242 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1237 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Windy with isolated to scattered showers and storms through Monday evening. Limited severe risk. - Numerous showers and storms Monday night into NE OK spreading southward Tuesday. Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall. - Cooler temperatures Wednesday with continued low rain chances through the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Monday Night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Strong low level jet has developed across the local region with minimal boundary layer decoupling allowing for periodic strong wind gusts through the early Monday morning hours. Weak disturbance lifting from N TX into W AR along with ongoing strong moist advection and a weakly capped airmass warrants low shower and storm chances through Monday morning primarily far E OK and NW AR. A lull in rain chances appears likely Monday afternoon through Monday evening though strong gusty winds will continue. Focus will become the cold front and storms developing across KS Monday evening and then spreading south into NE OK near or slightly after midnight. Fcst soundings suggest the line of storms will have a time frame to remain severe into NE OK Monday night before encountering stronger inhibition prompting a weakening trend. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Showers and storms will be ongoing early Tuesday with a continued southward advance through the day. An uptick in storm intensity is possible through the day Tuesday before storms clear the forecast area, however the bulk of severe weather is likely to focus south and west of the forecast area by Tuesday evening. Heavy rainfall is possible through the day Tuesday however latest guidance remains progressive with the line of storms which would keep that threat localized. Showers and storms are likely to persist into the day Wednesday as another round of lift interacts with the elevated frontal zone across the region. Lesser instability will limit the severe weather risk. Noticeably cooler temps follow the front and persist through mid week. The late week pattern maintains one or more waves passing across the region supporting continued daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Confidence in coverage and timing remains lower than average, but low clouds are expected to return late overnight into Monday morning, with MVFR cigs becoming increasingly common across the area. Ceilings should scatter/lift by this afternoon with a return to VFR conditions areawide. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may also develop this morning, perhaps into the afternoon, particularly across SE OK and NW AR. Maintained PROB30s to cover this potential, but amendments/introduction of TEMPO groups may be required. Sfc winds will become strong again this afternoon, with gusts in excess of 30-35 kts possible across NE OK. Southerly LLWS develops again this evening through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 87 67 74 58 / 20 80 70 70 FSM 89 72 85 65 / 30 10 80 60 MLC 88 74 82 62 / 20 20 90 60 BVO 88 61 71 53 / 20 80 50 50 FYV 86 72 81 60 / 30 20 90 70 BYV 85 72 82 59 / 30 20 90 70 MKO 87 70 78 59 / 30 30 90 70 MIO 86 67 74 56 / 30 70 80 60 F10 87 70 78 58 / 20 40 80 70 HHW 87 72 82 65 / 20 10 90 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>064-067-154- 254-354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...43  641 FXUS65 KGJT 180542 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1142 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow returns tonight through tomorrow morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the eastern Uinta, Elkhead, and Park Mountains. - Freezing temperatures are expected to impact the Central and Lower Yampa River Basin Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Freeze highlights are in effect. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1039 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 WET AND COLD MONDAY: On Monday, the low which has been driving this active weather pattern will be moving overhead. As temperature take a dive near sunrise behind the associated cold front, near-surface conditions will rapidly moisten up. This should be plenty enough to promote another day of widespread precipitation. In spite of the frontal boundary being draped across the CWA, forcing is overall unimpressive and instability is minimal due to the anticipated morning cloud cover region-wide. So look for Monday's stormy weather to be more stratiform. A few discrete storms cannot be ruled out though, particularly later in the afternoon as cloud cover disperses to a degree. With temperatures dropping though, our focus is shifting away from severe weather potential towards another round of snowfall for our higher elevation locations. Snow levels are generally high (>9,000 ft) across the area, though further north from the eastern Uintas to the northern Colorado mountains, where cooler air has already been settling in, snow levels are expected to drop further (>6,000 ft). Accumulations could near a foot along higher elevation portions of US-191 in the Uintas, and Rabbit Ears Pass has ~50% chance of exceeding 6" of accumulation. Elsewhere in the CWA, snow totals will be lesser, but most mountain ranges are expected to sit at 2-6" of snow by the time the sun rises on Tuesday. FREEZE POTENTIAL: This frigid push brings more than just another round of late season snow, but will also cause more freeze concerns. The coldest conditions will occur on Tuesday morning. Much of the Yampa Valley River Basin is expected to see a hard freeze as a result during this period. Though temperatures begin to warm back up beyond Tuesday, Wednesday morning will also likely see below freezing temperatures in the Yampa River Basin, thus a freeze watch has been issued for CO001 and CO002. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1142 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 TAF forecasts over the next 12 to 18 hours will be compromised with low clouds and lowered visibility at times due to this Spring storm rolling through. Mountain TAFs may see snow mixed in a times but for the most part rain showers and lower clouds will mix MVFR/IFR conditions in with ILS/VFR. The system will be clearing out by late afternoon with mainly VFR conditions moving in behind. However will need to monitor the threat of lingering low clouds/fog in the wake of the system overnight. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from midnight Monday night to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ001-002. Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for COZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ004. UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Monday for UTZ023. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  790 FXUS63 KBIS 180545 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1245 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances (40 to 80 percent) for showers Monday afternoon through Monday evening along the South Dakota border and into the James River Valley. - Cold overnight low temperatures near or slightly below freezing tonight (far north), Monday night (west and north central), and Tuesday night (southwest and central). - Temperatures warming back to above normal by late in the work week and for the weekend, with near daily chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Limited changes needed so far tonight. Visibility reductions continue across the north and now some eastern portions. Meanwhile, some sites reporting brief light rain. Overall patchy fog, isolated to scattered light rain, and pockets of drizzle will be possible tonight given abundant low level moisture and a nearby upper wave. Expanded slight chances for light rain along with patchy fog mention through the night as a result. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 We are starting to see more widespread visibility restrictions in the 1 to 5 mile range across northwest and north central North Dakota, so a mention of patchy fog has been added to the forecast. Dense fog remains unlikely though. There is a chance it becomes more of a drizzle-type scenario, but feel the low chances for light rain paired with patchy fog will suffice for now. UPDATE Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Precipitation continues to diminish from west to east as the inciting surface low lifts out of the area. With this update, have tweaked pops to account for radar trends, with showers lifting slightly more quickly than previously forecast. Did evaluate the potential need for patchy fog across portions of the northwest and south central for Monday morning, though the prevailing thought is the heavy cloudy cover and sufficiently strong winds will keep most areas as low stratus. Will continue to evaluate over the next few hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Showers continue to lift northeast through central and northern portions of the State. Another round of showers is also pushing into the south central, extending well into central SD. it looks like this second round will just graze the Bismarck Metro area with most of the activity tracking across the far south central and into the James River Valley. Farther north, the big winner today for precip was the northwest. Areas around Williston received around a quarter of and inch, but to the north and east, over portions of Burke and Mountrail counties, as well as western McLean and northern Dunn and Mercer counties. NDAWN rain totals were currently between a half inch and an inch. An NDAWN site near Bowbells was reporting nearly an inch and a half of rain as of 3 PM. A nearly stationary inverted trough combined with an area of strong deformation, that also moved very little through the day was responsible for these higher amounts. Going forward, shower activity has dried up in the far west and adjacent areas of the south central, west of the River. Expect this drying to continue working its way north and east as the wave exits the area. As the wave exits tonight, our first concern is overnight low temperatures. Although lower clouds have been slow to develop today, we are seeing low stratus now over a good portion of the west. Expect the stratus to also expand behind the precipitation shield. RAP guidance suggests that the 925 to 850 mb layer RH will remain over all but the far southwest tonight, and expanding to include the far southwest towards morning. This expansive cloud cover does not bode well for temperatures dropping below freezing, even with the cold aid aloft dropping south from Canada. We used a blend of the NBM guidance with CONSShort to bump up temperatures a bit. Wouldn't be surprised if the lows were even warmer. We still see lows in the mid 30s over the far north and in our normally cool areas of the southwest. However with the extensive cloud cover, the potential for frost is low and we should remain mostly above freezing, so no Freeze Hazard is anticipated tonight. On Monday, the next round of precipitation is favored for the far south central into southeast ND, mainly associated with the forcing from the mid-upper level trough. The surface trough remains well off to the southeast. With the upper trough over the area, can not rule out a sprinkle or two elsewhere, or maybe even some drizzle, as low level moisture remains in place. But the best chances (40 to 80 percent) for rain showers will be south and east. Monday night, and again on Tuesday night we will see the potential for temperatures at or below freezing. It will be interesting to see how temperatures fare tonight. This should help to determine whether or not we need a Freeze Warning for Monday night, as RAP guidance suggests that low level moisture will still be over most of the area. By Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see the low level moisture exit, thus the potential for freezing temperatures looks to be more favorable. Will continue to monitor. Wednesday through the end of the week we are expecting a gradual warming trend with temperatures possibly returning into the 70s and maybe even the 80s by Sunday. With a broad northwest upper level flow over the area, occasional disturbances will bring near daily chances for showers and a few thunderstorms, but with low confidence in timing and placement. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Low clouds will linger tonight and through much of the day Monday, bringing MVFR to periods of IFR ceilings. Some patchy fog along with isolated to scattered rain/drizzle can also be expected tonight into Monday morning, bringing more IFR to perhaps LIFR conditions. Shower activity is then more confined to the south and east Monday through Monday evening, although most sites will have at least slight chances for rain showers. Any shower has the potential to bring MVFR to IFR conditions. Monday night will see shower activity diminish, although low clouds could linger bringing MVFR to isolated IFR ceilings. A breezy north wind may also be found throughout the forecast period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...Anglin  914 FXUS61 KAKQ 180547 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 147 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Climate Records, Key Messages and Aviation discussion for 06z TAF. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. 2) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Summer-like heat makes its presence felt across the region for much of the first half of the upcoming week. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a hot and dry first half of the week. Widespread mid 90s are expected inland each day, with lower 90s closer to the immediate coast due to H85 temps maxing out between 18-20 deg C, good mixing, and continued low-level SSW flow. Temps will be similar each day, with Wednesday perhaps being a degree or two warmer. Forecast confidence in temperatures from Mon- Wed remains high. As noted in the first point above, the strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temps. Dry wx persists through at least Wed AM. However, upper heights begin to fall during the day Wednesday as a cold front slowly approaches to our NW. Tstms will develop to our northwest during the afternoon and may move into the Piedmont/Northern Neck/MD Eastern Shore by the evening. It remains somewhat uncertain how far SE convection makes it Wed evening before some degree of diurnal weakening occurs. This will depend on the progression of the cold front. However, at this time, it appears that convection most likely stays north and west of the RIC Metro Wed evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada from Wednesday-Thursday. This will allow the ridge to become suppressed to our SE, while also allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. While there remain model differences, the above mentioned cold front is progged to cross the area on Thursday. The front lingers across the area on Friday, and may move back north of the area late Friday-Friday night. With the front moving south of the area on Thursday, expect a cooler, cloudy day with rain (can't completely rule out a tstm across extreme SE portions of the area depending on the speed of the front). Periods of rain remain possible Thursday night and Friday with the front nearby. Temps may struggle to get out of the lower 60s on Thursday and Friday (especially N/NE). Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms (along with warmer temps) are possible Memorial Day weekend with the front moving back to the north. As previously mentioned, the temperature forecast on Friday and especially Saturday is highly uncertain and depends on the exact position of the front. In fact, model solutions vary between the 60s and 80s for Saturday! As for precipitation amounts, ensemble (EPS/GEPS/GEFS) probs for at least 0.5" of 48 hour total rainfall for Wed night-Fri Night are around or just above 50% across the entire CWA. However, still am not as optimistic as ensemble/NBM guidance given a potentially unfavorable FROPA timing for convection (Wednesday's convection may be focused to our north and Thursday's may be suppressed to our south). Also, some of our recent rain events have underperformed with respect to Day 3-5 model/ensemble forecasts. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions currently across area terminals look to prevail through the 06z/17 TAF period, as high pressure remains anchored offshore. Aside from some SCT high clouds this morning, mainly clear across the area today. Winds remain light ~5-8 kt out of the SSW, backing to the SSE this afternoon ~10 kt with occasional gusts to ~15 kt. Outlook...VFR conditions expected through midweek, as high pressure remains in control. South/southwest winds each afternoon may gust to 15-20kt each day through Wed. Next chance of rain not expected until late Wed or Thursday. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. The latest wx analysis shows expansive high pressure offshore and to the southeast. Sub-SCA conditions will likely continue through at least mid-week as the Bermuda high settles into place. Light winds out of the southwest are observed today between 5-10 kt. Waves are measured to be ~1 ft in the Ches. Bay and seas of 2-3 ft in the coastal waters. Winds will remain similar through the rest of the day and into Monday afternoon. SSW winds will then increase slightly to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt Monday afternoon in the Ches. Bay and coastal waters, but should stay below SCA criteria. A similar story will be seen Tuesday afternoon as winds approach marginal SCA conditions with SSW becoming 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the Ches. Bay and 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the coastal waters north of the VA/NC state border. Confidence is low in needing SCAs as local probs are still quite low. The next cold front looks to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief marginal SCA conditions are possible and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend. && .CLIMATE... As of 145 AM Monday... Record High Temps for 5/18 - 5/20 Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 95 (1962) 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 95 (1877) 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 96 (1911) 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 93 (1987) 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/18- 5/20 Record Record Record High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 72 (2015) 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 75 (1995) 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 71 (1953) 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 73 (1995) 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM AVIATION...AC/MAM MARINE...KMC CLIMATE...MAM  866 FXUS62 KGSP 180545 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 145 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to precip amounts and temperatures late in the week. The aviation discussion was updated to reflect the 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A summer-like pattern will continue through mid-week, with above normal temperatures and little chance of deep convection until Wednesday afternoon as a front approaches. 2. A cold front brings better rain chances for the latter part of the week and into the weekend, but drought relief will be limited. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: A summer-like pattern will continue through mid-week, with above normal temperatures and little chance of deep convection until Wednesday afternoon as a front approaches. As advertised, we are still on track for our Summer preview for the next two to three days as a building mid/upper ridge/anticyclone over the East Coast supports a Bermuda High. No big surprises here in the new guidance. Temps will generally run 7-12 degrees above normal, with highs pushing the lower 90s in many spots east of the mtns, but not nearly enough to challenge records. Still no indication that dewpoint will be high enough to make apparent temps any warmer than air temps. The CAMs keep the fcst area dry today and hold very little promise for mountain convection on Tuesday. Thus, we shall bake as if in an oven. By Wednesday, the upper anticyclone moves off to the east and a wave in the nrn stream will flatten out the eastern ridge, so a cold front is still expected to move toward the mtns from the OH Valley. The latest batch of models suggests this boundary will be farther away than expected, however, so the chances of getting any shower activity east of the mtns are poor. The new fcst will have a gradient in precip chance over the Escarpment Wednesday afternoon, with a strong diurnal signal, so Wednesday night looks quiet. This period is beyond the CAMs, so it is possible the precip chances might ultimately improve, especially if something gets organized to the west and moves in late in the day. Key message 2: A cold front brings better rain chances for the latter part of the week and into the weekend, but drought relief will be limited. The medium range part of the forecast remains something of a moving target because of uncertainty regarding the passage of the cold front and whether or not the boundary will ever truly move through the fcst area. Some of the guidance already starts to rebuild the eastern upper ridge on Friday into the weekend, which could lift whatever remnant there was back north as a warm front by Saturday. Either way, Thursday and Friday look...unsettled...so likely/categorical precip probs are still in order. Weak cold air damming remains apparent for Friday, maybe with a stronger signal than yesterday, but it would be brief as the parent high would move away Friday night and we'd get back into a warm sector for Saturday. So, after one more warm day on Thursday, temps cool down to something roughly five degrees below normal for Friday because of extensive clouds and some precip, then it's a return to normal for the rest of the fcst period. The weekend looks like above climo precip probs. For the time being, the chances of getting more than an inch of rain on any given day is low, but at least it looks like the drought would not get any worse through that period. The risk for severe storms appears to be low. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Continued VFR at all terminals over the next 24-36 hours. Some low convective cloud debris was noted over the mtns on satellite imagery. We will monitor to see if it can form a ceiling near KAVL over the next few hours. Otherwise, a light S wind will continue through mid/late morning. We should pop up a few stratocu with daytime heating. Deeper mixing this afternoon will raise wind a bit from the S to SW, but gusts are not yet indicated. More clear sky and variable wind is expected after sunset. Outlook: VFR to persist through mid-week, except perhaps in mountain valleys, where patchy morning fog/low stratus may develop each morning. An active cold front may bring restrictions associated with convective precip by late week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ PM  844 FXUS63 KSGF 180545 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1245 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like temperatures with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s to around 70 Sunday and Monday. Occasional wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Monday. Uncertainty in timing and evolution of severe threats exists. 40-70 percent chance (highest chances along and north of Highway 54) of showers and storms Monday morning into early afternoon. Some severe storms possible with damaging winds the most likely hazard. - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday. A line of thunderstorms expected to move through early morning/sunrise Tuesday. Some severe storms possible with damaging winds the most likely hazard. - Additional rainfall chances (30-50%) mid to late week along with cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show southwest flow aloft with a strong trough moving into the Rockies. A 40kt jet at 850mb exists from the Gulf all the way through eastern Kansas. Surface low pressure continues to strengthen across southwest Kansas with a front stretching northeast into Nebraska. Boundary layer dews remain in the middle to upper 60s. The pressure gradient was allowing for wind gust of 30-40mph however a rather expansive cumulus field was keeping winds from increasing even further. Even with cloud cover, temps were in the lower 80s early this afternoon. Recent 18z sounding from KSGF measured a very strong capping inversion/elevated mixed layer (EML). This EML was centered around 750mb with a 700mb temp of 11C. Afternoon - Evening: While some CAMS/High res guidance tries to develop late afternoon pop up storms over the area, the latest sounding builds confidence that the chance is low (less than 20 percent). While a rogue shower may develop, most locations should remain warm, dry and breezy through this evening. Thunderstorm Potential Overnight through Monday Afternoon: Main attention turns to Kansas and Nebraska as the low level jet will strengthen overnight and interact with the forcing of the upper level trough and the surface front. Latest 12z HREF and REFS data strongly supports a cluster of storms forming overnight across northern Kansas. These storms will form in strongly unstable and highly sheared environment. Most guidance has this cluster of storms moving due east overnight, following the forward propagating vectors. Once storms get into Missouri, wind shear does weaken and there is a signal that storms could begin to develop/slide more southeast with time and perhaps backbuild. This is especially the case after 4am as storms move towards central Missouri. The HRRR is on the southern envelope of guidance, moving this cluster of storms across areas along and north of Highway 54 around sunrise. The limiting factor for severe storms by this time is the wind shear. Shear will be decreasing since the stronger mid level flow remains west of the area, therefore we may see more of a unorganized/weakening cluster of storms still capable of producing damaging winds. We will closely monitor this activity as there is other model guidance keeping a stronger cold pool which would allow for the complex to stay north of the area entirely. Past events/forecaster intuition would suggest that an outflow boundary should remain somewhere near the area as the complex moves east of the area and/or weakens. IF strong late morning/early afternoon heating/destabilization can develop, then storms could redevelop near that boundary, especially if there is low level jet interaction. Wind shear might be a limiting factorhowever there will be a severe threat if they can become organized. Damaging winds to 60mph and large hail to the size of quarters would be the most likely hazards. The strong capping inversion will also play a role in the southward extent of precip Monday, with the potential for areas south of I-44 to remain dry. Overall, the confidence in the timing and evolution of severe weather Monday is low with additional updates likely. Highs in the 80s are possible again, especially if clouds can decrease in the late morning/afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Severe Thunderstorm Potential Tuesday: A strong low level jet will develop again late Monday night into Tuesday morning which along with the upper level lift moving through will force another line of storms to develop across Kansas. Most guidance brings this into southeast Kansas and western Missouri after midnight Tuesday, moving through most of southern Missouri during the pre dawn and dawn hours Tuesday. The strongest lift/shortwave energy will be moving north of the area and wind shear again may be our limiting factor for severe storms. Current expectations are for this line to weaken as it moves through the area with a few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds. The speed of the front and morning storm evolution makes the afternoon severe potential highly uncertain. Locations southeast of Springfield could see a slightly higher severe threat if enough destabilization occurs. Additional Rain Chances/Cooler Weather Mid/Late Week: Ensemble data continues to suggests that the overall upper level pattern does not change much as the area remains in the west/southwest upper level flow pattern. The front that moves through Tuesday will likely lift back into the area and will serve as a focus for additional chances for showers and storms. Additional shortwaves looks to move in late Wednesday through Friday and rain chances have now increased into the 30-50% range. Cooler air aloft and precip chances look to keep our temps several degrees cooler than the last few days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Southerly flow will continue to bring gusty surface winds to the region through the overnight hours and during the day Monday. Along with the winds will come increasing moisture which will bring increasing low level clouds with VFR to MVFR ceilings over night. A band of showers and storms located across eastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri will begin to move to the south overnight. This band is expected to make its way into the northern Ozarks and bring the potential for showers and storms. Where storms occur, impacts to visibilities and ceilings will occur. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Record High Temperatures: May 18: KSGF: 88/1962 KJLN: 90/1987 KVIH: 88/1996 KUNO: 89/2001 Record Warmest Low Temperatures: May 18: KSGF: 68/1996 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 66/2017 KVIH: 70/1996 May 19: KSGF: 69/2013 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 70/1996 KVIH: 70/1996 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Hatch CLIMATE...Burchfield  939 FXUS63 KFSD 180548 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1248 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The severe threat for tonight has ended. - A lower risk of severe weather exists late Monday afternoon and evening, mainly over northwest IA, before quieter weather moves in for the mid-week period. - Dry for the middle portions of the week. Then another round of storms is possible Thursday into Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The threat for severe weather has ended for tonight for the forecast region. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue for a few more hours, ending in the very early hours of Monday morning. Gusty northwest winds will expand eastward overnight, gusting 25-30 mph, with a few gusts to 35 mph over south central South Dakota. Winds continue to push east through the day Monday and remain breezy into Tuesday. By Monday afternoon chances increase for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may become strong to severe, especially for portions of northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa. Some uncertainty remains after today's storms as to how well the atmosphere will recover by tomorrow afternoon. If you have outdoor plans, please check the forecast for updates and have multiple ways to receive warnings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The short-term convective outlook presents a highly volatile spring severe weather setup. Latest surface analysis shows a complex pattern, anchored by a strong 994 mb low over northwest KS. An inverted trough extended north of the low through central SD, while a well-defined warm front stretched northeast of the low into east central NE. A weaker low was also noted in north central NE. Visible satellite imagery revealed stable wave clouds advancing northeast over far northeast NE and extreme SE SD, ahead of the advancing warm front. Regional radar imagery showed a complex of strong to severe storms over north central NE. This storm complex is forecast by short range guidance to continue tracking east this afternoon, intensifying as interacts with the richer low- level moisture pool near and south of the warm front. Moderate to strong instability will be in place over the southern to eastern CWA by late afternoon with MLCAPE nearing 3000 J/kg. In addition, deep layer shear will increase to around 50 kt, coincident with a mid level speed max ejecting from the deep upper trough to our west. As the system evolves over the next several hours, it appears the ingredients for a significant severe weather event will be most favored over the southern to eastern CWA. Ahead of the main convective line, some CAMs show supercell development along the northward advancing warm front. These storms would present a risk of very large hail (2"+) and tornadoes. Given the amount of low level SRH/curved hodographs present, a couple strong tornadoes are possible. The convective cluster currently entering our far southwest CWA should strengthen as it shifts east, with an initial hail and tornado threat transitioning to a damaging straight line wind threat (70+ MPH) as it grows upscale into a squall line/QLCS. Some line-embedded QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially for any line segments that become oriented north/south or northwest/southeast, given southwesterly 0-3 km shear vectors. Timing from latest high-res guidance suggests this activity exits to the east of our CWA late this evening. Precipitation amounts will vary significantly based on convective tracks, though NBM guidance and HREF probability match mean fields project a widespread 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rainfall, particularly across northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. On Monday, the cold front finally pushes into the area. Instability and shear are forecast to be much lower than today, however, there will be a conditional risk of severe storms over the eastern CWA during the late afternoon to evening, if the airmass can destabilize sufficiently ahead of the front. SPC's Day 2 outlook indicates as Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5), for our MN and IA counties. Behind the departing upper wave, quasi-zonal flow sets up for Tuesday and Wednesday, yielding quiet conditions and seasonally cool high temperatures moderating from the upper 50s Tuesday to mid-upper 60s Wednesday. The next upper wave moves in for the Thursday to Friday period, however Gulf moisture remains cutoff ahead of this system. Evaluating the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) reveals no significant climatological anomalies for precipitation or wind across the upper Midwest during this period, reinforcing the the idea of a low-impact system for our area. The current forecast sticks closely to the NBM consensus, maintaining broad 20-30 percent probabilities for light rain for late Thursday into Saturday. By late this week and especially this weekend, temperatures will embark on a steady upward trajectory, as the mid level flow backs west, then southwest. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 day outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, which supports blended guidance high temperatures reaching well into the 80s on Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A mix of VFR down to LIFR across the region as low stratus persists through most of the period. Breezy northwest winds gusting 20-25 kts west of I-29 will also prevail for the period. To the east gusts are west becoming northwest at 10-15 kts. Monday morning winds become northerly and increase through the afternoon and into the evening. Peak gusts of 25-35 kts are expected, with the strongest winds over south central South Dakota. The stronger winds gradually progress to the east toward the end of the period. Dry conditions are expected until Monday afternoon. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase through the afternoon and into the evening. Showers will be scattered in nature and will be more periodic than continuous. As we approach the late afternoon and early evening, severe risks increase especially for areas of northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa. There is some question on how well the atmosphere will recover before Monday afternoon. This may limit severe potential to just a few storms. Stronger storms that do form may be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Showers and storms continue through the end of the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AJP DISCUSSION...Dux AVIATION...AJP  013 FXUS61 KBOX 180551 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 151 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence of record heat Tuesday for parts of southern New England && .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures near the coast today but continued very warm in the interior. - Record heat likely Tuesday for portions of SNE with hot conditions lingering into Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon with better chance for scattered strong to severe storms on Wednesday. - Cooler, more seasonable temperatures late in the week. Increasing risk for showers next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler temperatures near the coast today but continued very warm in the interior. Weak backdoor front slides south of the coast early this morning. This shallow boundary is expected to lift back to the north this afternoon or mix out as winds become southerly. Highs in the interior will soar into the 80s again, warmest in the CT valley where upper 80s to near 90 is possible as 925 mb temps increase to 22-23C. Sea-breezes will keep coastal locations mostly in the 70s. Bulk of the instability this afternoon will be to the west but some instability is forecast to get into western MA/CT where a spot shower is possible. Otherwise dry weather. KEY MESSAGE 2...Record heat likely Tuesday for portions of SNE with hot conditions lingering into Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon with better chance for scattered strong to severe storms on Wednesday. An anomalous upper level ridge builds over the region Tue with rather warm low level temps. 850 mb temps are 2-3SD above normal which is close to the maximum relative to CFSR climatology for this time of year suggesting very anomalous heat. Actual 850 mb temps forecast to be 18-20C with 925 mb temps 24-26C. This suggests highs in the mid 90s away from the south coast with potential for some upper 90s in the CT valley. SW flow will keep temps in the upper 70s and low 80s along the immediate south coast. Dewpoints are forecast to reach lower 60s but with mixing could drop into the 50s in the interior which would keep heat indices below advisory criteria. This is our first heat of the season, so be sure to use caution and hydrate/cool accordingly. Despite upper ridge breaking down and becoming suppressed to the south, another hot day Wed as thermal ridge ahead of cold front lingers across SNE. Low level temps cool slightly and more cloud cover expected but still hot with highs 90-95 away from the south coast. Moderate instability is expected to develop Tue afternoon with CAPES 1000-2000+ J/kg. While large scale forcing is limited under the ridge there is a weak shortwave on the periphery of the ridge that approaches so can't rule out a few storms Tue afternoon in unstable environment. Deep layer shear is relatively weak but localized strong gusts are possible in any storms given inverted V profile. The greater risk for t-storms will be Wed afternoon as cold front moves into the region which is favorable timing to take advantage of diurnal max in instability along with deeper moisture profile. Deep layer shear values are more favorable for storm organization so can't rule out scattered strong to severe storms with damaging wind the primary risk although high PWAT airmass will support localized downpours and heavy rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler, more seasonable temperatures late in the week. Increasing risk for showers next weekend. Cooler airmass behind the cold front for Thu and Fri with near seasonable or slightly below temps. High pres builds in for the end of the week bringing dry conditions. Then the high retreats next weekend with a frontal boundary approachingfrom the south and ensemble guidance suggest increasing risk for showers next weekend but details are uncertain. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Mainly VFR conditions through Wed. However, stratus and fog will likely develop over the ocean as SW flow brings higher dewpoints over cooler ocean and this may impact portions of the south coast and Cape/Islands tonight. Isolated t-storms possible Tue afternoon. Light E-SE wind becoming S 10-20 kt this afternoon. S-SW wind 5-10 kt tonight increasing Tue with gusts to 25 kt developing. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. Seabreeze today with wind shift to S late today or early evening. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. SHRA likely, isolated TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday through Friday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Tuesday...High confidence. Easterly winds this morning becoming SE-S this afternoon with speeds below 20 kt. S-SW wind 10-20 kt tonight increasing to 15-25 kt Tue. Seas building to 4-6 ft. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Tue May 19... BOS 90/1949 BDL 94/1962 PVD 91/2017 ORH 92/1962 Record Highs for Wed May 20... BOS 91/1996 BDL 99/1996 PVD 95/1996 ORH 91/1903 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KJC AVIATION...KJC MARINE...KJC CLIMATE...  079 FXUS66 KLOX 180553 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1053 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 .SYNOPSIS...17/1018 PM. Warmer temperatures are expected this week with some locally breezy Santa Ana winds Monday morning. The warmest day will be Wednesday with slow cooling the rest of the week along with a return of night and morning low clouds and fog. && .SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...17/1015 PM. ***UPDATE*** High temperatures varied across the region today, with warm upper 70s to low 80s over the interior, and cooler 60s to 70s elsewhere. Highs only reached the upper 50s for many spots along the Central Coast where gusty northwest winds limited warming. For tonight, expecting redevelopment of marine layer clouds favoring LA County, however clouds may be short-lived as easterly winds start up. Looking at a good 3 to 6 degree warming trend for coasts and valley areas as offshore flow develops. Currently, no significant changes needed for the forecast with wind advisories starting late tonight over the mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. A warming trend is expected through Wednesday. ***From Previous Discussion*** West to northwest winds are starting to decrease as gradients trend offshore through Monday morning. Still expecting some gusty northwest winds in the Antelope Valley through this evening as well as southwest Santa Barbara County. Otherwise, the offshore push will peak Monday morning with gradients around -2.5mb to the east. This probably won't be enough to completely remove the marine layer influence out of LA/Ventura Counties so probably little to no Santa Ana winds at lower elevations. But in the LA Mountains above 3000 feet some gusts to around 40 mph are possible Monday morning. High temperatures most everywhere Monday will see a bump from 5-10 degrees. A similar light offshore pattern continues Tuesday and Wednesday but with slowly decreasing wind support aloft, which was already not that strong to begin with. 90% of the warming for the week will be on Monday, except in the Antelope Valley where the main warming will delayed to Tuesday, with temperatures up 5-10 degrees. Elsewhere, highs Tue and Wed will only increase by a degree or two. Any morning stratus will be patchy and brief. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...17/1006 AM. Look for a benign upper level pattern to return Thursday and continue through Saturday. At the same time onshore flow will increase some each day. This will reinvigorate the marine layer stratus and most csts and some vlys will wake up to clouds each morning. Winds will not be an issue. Max temps will fall 3 to 6 degrees across the csts/vlys on Thursday. All areas will see 3 to 4 degrees of cooling Friday. Saturday's cooling of 1 to 2 degrees will bring max temps down into the upper 60s through the upper 70s across the csts and vlys. && .AVIATION...18/0547Z. At 0528Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 5000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 6300 ft with a temperature of 11 C. Good confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KPMD and KWJF. Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs as VFR conds could come as early as 12Z depending on the strength of the Santa Ana winds. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will vary between 025 and 040. SCT conds could arrive as early as 14Z. There is a 30 percent chc of an 8 kt east wind component 11Z to 15Z. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will vary between 025 and 040. SCT conds could arrive as early as 12Z. && .MARINE...17/710 PM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday night, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. For Tuesday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain belowSCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday morning, high confidence in a combinations of SCA level winds and seas. From Monday afternoon through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, SCA level winds are expected across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with conditions remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Monday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .BEACHES...17/152 PM. A combination of strong winds, large seas, and moderately high evening high tides may lead to high surf with minor coastal flooding possible into Monday morning. High Surf advisories and Beach Hazard statements have been issued across the entire coastline. Please refer to CFWLOX for more details for your area. Hazardous surfing and swimming conditions are expected with strong rip currents. Minor beach erosion and minor coastal flooding is possible, mainly during tonight's high tide. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 7 AM to 3 PM PDT Monday for zone 88. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Monday for zones 375>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/MW AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...RAT BEACHES...Lewis SYNOPSIS...LP/MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  108 FXAK67 PAJK 180554 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 954 PM AKDT Sun May 17 2026 .UPDATE...Update to the Long Term Section for the extended forecast and Aviation Section to include the 06z TAFs. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 406PM Sun May 17 2026... SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Gale force front moves inland and diminishes through Sunday night, with rain continuing into Monday - Onshore flow continues showers through Monday, mainly for the northern and central panhandle - A weak shortwave brings rain back to the northeastern gulf coast Monday night into Tuesday before another front moves in Wednesday SHORT TERM...A strong front is moving inland through Sunday afternoon, bringing widespread rainfall and gusty winds up to 35 kts to a majority of communities in the panhandle. Minor changes were made to the short term forecast today, with the main focuses being to pull back the slightly fast timing of the front moving in, increasing QPF to match the current rates, and increasing gusts across land areas. Yakutat has been seeing the brunt of this front with consistent moderate rain rates lasting through the day, and these strong rates have just made it to Juneau as well. Both winds and rain with the main front will steadily diminish overnight as ridging starts to build over the panhandle, though continued onshore flow in the northern gulf will keep the northern and parts of the central panhandle seeing periods of light to moderate rain rates and the occasional strong wind gusts with heavier showers into Monday. A weak shortwave in the northern gulf looks to push into Yakutat and the northeastern gulf coast through Monday evening, which will continue rain chances and overcast skies throughout the northern panhandle. This pattern continues through Tuesday, with another organized band moving into Yakutat preceding the next system for Wednesday. The southern panhandle has a chance to clear out behind the initial front Monday afternoon, which may allow for some fog development early Tuesday morning. There is a chance an overcast layer preceding another fast-moving front jumping into the gulf Tuesday will limit fog development through mid morning. This next front will be more organized and bring widespread rainfall to the panhandle through Wednesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall rates are likely as the front moves through, with gale force gusts possible through the inner channels. See the long term discussion for more information. LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/...The front moving in late Tuesday night is expected to bring widespread moderate rain to the entire panhandle through the day Wednesday before trailing off late Wednesday night. Peak precipitation accumulation is expected to occur between Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon based on the current thinking for timing of the front. There is 80% confidence that Yakutat will receive between 1-1.75 inches, Juneau to receive 0.5-1.25 inches, Sitka to receive 0.6-0.8 inches, and Ketchikan to receive 0.25-0.55 inches of rain in the 24 hour period mentioned. There are no flood risks expected at this time. As the front moves in, winds across the panhandle look to increase to 20-25 mph with gusty conditions and will settle again Thursday morning after the front moves fully through the area. The overall pattern for the rest of the week continues to be unsettled onshore flow. This will bring periods of rain and overcast conditions, mainly focused on the northern panhandle. The southern and part of the central panhandle could see periods of clearing intermixed with light rain showers for the rest of the week. Winds look be mainly calm for the rest of the period as there is no well defined front currently expected. Looking ahead for the Saturday night through Sunday period, ensemble guidance suggests a negatively tilted trough will advance into the Gulf of Alaska. While this system is trending deeper, it is expected to bring relatively benign winds and precipitation, with the primary impacts focused on the southern panhandle and Clarence Strait to Dixon entrance region. Guidance suggests with 90% confidence that any hazards expected with this are low end small craft advisories in the aforementioned zones. AVIATION...MVFR with some VFR conditions continue this evening across the panhandle as the front continues to impact the area. Some pockets of IFR have been noted, especially around the Yakutat area. These conditions are expected to persist with some areas getting closer to IFR ceilings during the overnight hours. Concerns for LLWS that existed earlier in the day have been decreasing this evening. Heading into tomorrow, MVFR conditions are expected to persist during the morning and early afternoon hours before we could see some improving conditions as high pressure moves into the area, but some rain showers are still possible. MARINE...A strong gale force front continues to move through the Eastern and Northern Gulf of Alaska through the rest of today. This front will slowly continue to progress over the panhandle through Monday morning. Coastal Waters: Winds will ease through the rest of this evening and will become southwesterly 10-15kts once the front moves through. Additionally, swell will shift to be consistently southwesterly behind the front ranging 7-9ft and will ease to 3-5ft by Monday night. Between the easing winds and swell combined seas in the outer/inner coastal zones are expected to go from 15-17ft to 6-8ft by Monday night. Conditions are not expected to change drastically from Monday night onward. That said, there are a few shortwave disturbances that could boost winds primarily in the near coastal zones, as of right now the majority of the area is expected to remain below gale for much of the week ahead. Inner Channels: As of this writing the front is just now approaching the inner channels. Due to the approaching front the overall flow is southeasterly. However, E-W orientated channels will experience more easterly winds, ahead of the front due to the winds being forced around terrain. The strength of winds ahead of the front is going to be dependent on channel orientation and any funneling of winds that occurs. See CWF/MWW for the latest marine products and more detailed wind forecasts. The front will move through the area by Monday morning, once this occurs winds will ease over Inner Channels. Looking past Monday, weak shortwaves moving over the area are expected to increase winds over portions of the area, as of right now low end SCA seem to be the most likely but this could change as more higher resolution guidance becomes available for this period. Other than these shortwaves the only thing to note would be localized diurnal affects, particularly in the narrower channels. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-034-036-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...ZTK LONG TERM...AGP/BAS AVIATION...SF MARINE...Butwin Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  115 FXUS63 KICT 180554 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1254 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening, primarily along and west of the Kansas Turnpike. - Severe weather potential continues for Monday afternoon and evening across the area with all hazards possible, though uncertainty in storm evolution persists. - Warm and windy on Monday, with a cooldown arriving Tuesday. - Shower and storm chances return Wednesday evening and last through the end of the week. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon highlight an amplifying mid/upper wave traversing the Central Intermountain. At the surface, low pressure resides in north central Kansas with the associated dryline spanning through southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle and beyond. Large-scale forcing from the approaching wave is expected to promote the development of showers and storms later this afternoon into the evening hours. Increasing sfc/BL convergence along the dryline is expected to provide the main focus for storm chances across the forecast area, especially across central Kansas where the boundary intersects a slow-moving cold front. Per this morning's discussion, strong instability combined with 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear will support the potential for supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. We continue to see the potential for landspout tornadoes as well due to the nearly-stationary cold front and modest 3CAPE values, though the overall tornado threat appears somewhat lower owing to relatively high cloud bases. The tornado chance may increase following the strengthening of the LLJ and subsequent low- level shear after 7 PM, with the greatest potential residing once again in central Kansas. The potent shortwave is progged to translate eastward through the Rockies and eject into the High/Central Plains on Monday. Short- range models (NAM/RAP) continue to place the dryline across southwest Kansas by afternoon. Deep-layer shear in the 30-40 kt range oriented orthogonal to the boundary alongside warm-sector buoyancy in excess of 3000 J/kg all support the potential for discrete supercells capable of all hazards, including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution and timing of this scenario. The higher confidence resides with the latest short-term models suggesting storms initiating along the slow-moving cold front draped over central Kansas in the afternoon. This front will crash to the southeast by late afternoon/early evening, which would likely preclude the potential for discrete storms to fire off the dryline and into portions of the forecast area (namely, areas west of the Flint Hills). This solution would support a messier, linear storm mode owing to the negatively-tilted trough promoting boundary- parallel deep-layer shear. However, should slower solutions verify and this southward crash occur later in the period, the window for severe to significant severe weather would increase, particularly as low-level shear increases with the arrival of the LLJ in the evening. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the details of this upcoming severe event. In addition to this severe weather threat, a deepening surface low alongside deep mixing will result in another day of strong south winds on Monday. Sustained winds in the 25-35 mph range alongside gusts to 45 mph are possible in south central KS and adjacent counties, where a Wind Advisory was issued with this forecast cycle. For now, the period of strongest winds appears tobe mid-morning through early evening prior to the arrival of the aforementioned cold front. Cooler temperatures in the 60s and low 70s are expected to persist through Thursday in the wake of Monday evening's cold front. We could see residual rain chances across far southeast Kansas through Tuesday within the post-frontal airmass. Otherwise, chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening through the end of the week as a handful of low-amplitude waves traverse the central CONUS. Severe weather associated with these features appears unlikely at this time. Additionally, increasing thicknesses and the return of southerly winds are forecast to promote the return of high temperatures in the 80s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to fester over central Kansas while propagating east and slowly diminishing. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to develop across much of the area with some pockets of IFR possible north of the stationary front/outflow boundary in central Kansas as we move into the predawn hours as we remain in a very moist airmass. Strong and gusty southerly winds will return to much of the area on Monday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop on Monday afternoon along a sagging cold front with other storms possible along a dryline which is expected to be just west of the area. This activity is expected to develop into a line as we move into the evening hours while moving east of the area shortly after midnight. Some low clouds may redevelop in the wake of the front with breezy northwest winds also anticipated. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Strong south winds sustained around 25-35 mph and gusting to 45 mph will continue through the afternoon hours today. Combined with above normal temperatures and very low RH values, these factors will result in very high grassland fire danger in areas primarily west of Interstate 135. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ051>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...MWM FIRE WEATHER...  141 FXUS63 KMPX 180555 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1255 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms likely this evening, with the highest risk across southern Minnesota (level 3 out of 5). - Initial storms will have potential for large to very large hail (2-3") and tornadoes. - Individual storms will quickly form into a line as they progress through MN and WI. Significant severe wind (70-80+ mph) will become the primary hazard with brief QLCS tornadoes possible across south-central MN. - Another round of thunderstorms is likely Monday night. Severe thunderstorms are possible across southeast Minnesota & western Wisconsin. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Today is setting up to have potential to be a higher end day for portions of the Enhanced Risk area. Latest visible satellite imagery shorting plenty of clearing with the low-level cloud deck through much of MN, but especially across the southern portion of the state. A bubbling cu field is beginning to develop ahead of ongoing convection tied to the surface low near the NE/SD state line. Surface winds are largely out of the SE/ESE for MN and western WI, and dewpoints have been steadily increasing through the day so far. The best environment is across southern MN where dewpoints have climbed into the 60s already and plenty of clearing is allowing for efficient daytime heating, priming the environment for intense convection later today. Based on satellite and hi-res model data, we expect timing to be maybe slightly earlier than forecast this morning, but generally along the same timeframe. Supercells and storm clusters will develop across Nebraska and South Dakota during the afternoon (around 3-5pm) and progress slightly northeastward into southwest MN and northern IA (around 6-7pm). At this point, storms will be tied to the triple point and situated in a favorable environment for large to very large hail (2-3" in diameter) and damaging wind gusts (60+ mph). Storms will quickly develop into a line along the cold front and turn into a significant wind (70-80+ mph), QLCS setup with line-embedded tornadoes possible within that Enhanced Risk area (stretching from Redwood Falls, MN over to Owatonna, MN and south). Forecast soundings show increasing low-level shear and humped hodographs in the region ahead of the line, which is also reflected in models like the RRFS and HRRR producing a zone of STP values of 5+ across southern MN. Typically QLCS tornadoes are weaker than supercell tornadoes, so we really want to highlight that there is higher- end potential with today's environment compared to your average QLCS setup. Any tornadoes that develop will likely still be brief, like any typical QLCS setup, though the strength of the tornadoes may be capped at an EF2 level rather than EF1. This is all in general-speak, but the point is that the higher- end environment warrants being prepared for slightly stronger tornadoes than you typically get with linear setups (around here at least). The main time window for this to move through is between 7-10pm. The faster the line develops, the quicker it will move east. To the north of the main line, we should still see a surge of low-level moisture as the low tracks northeast. The overall environment just is not as impressive north of the Enhanced Risk region, due to the limited northern progression of the warm front today. It will be high shear/low CAPE setup for much of our forecast area today, but especially for areas north of the Redwood Falls to Owatonna line. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) remains in place to cover this threat for scattered severe storm potential. The primary hazards will be damaging wind (60+ mph) and large hail (1"+ in diameter). Any high end potential will be limited, including the tornado risk. Storms will move through the western MN to St Cloud, MN region around 6-8pm, the Twin Cities metro and eastern MN around 9-11pm, and eventually progress through western WI around 11pm-1am. The severe threat will begin to decrease as the line progresses into WI given that there will likely be scattered storms ahead the cold front, limiting the environment. The severe threat for Monday continues to decrease, and although there is still a Slight Risk (level 2/5) extending from south- central MN into west-central WI, we expect that region to shift even further southeast after we realize our round of storms this evening. We will struggle to build in any real instability and deep layer shear will become more limited as well. In reality, tomorrow will likely feel like a typical rainy Spring day with cool showers and storms through much of the second half of the day. Isolated chances for severe weather will exist, mainly for areas along I-35 and east during the evening. A much drier, and seasonably cool pattern will set up for the rest of the week. Temperatures on Tuesday will be about 10-15 degrees below average, and we could once again have concern for patchy frost overnight (lows in the mid-low 30s) into Wednesday for areas in west- central MN near Stevens, Douglas, and Todd counties. It won't be until Friday that we see our next notable chance for rain as a shortwave develops over the Northern Plains. It looks to be a slow- progressing pattern that would provide us with additional chances for showers and storms throughout the rest of Memorial Day weekend, though confidence is low at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Thunderstorms impacts & gusty winds up to 30 kts will impact EAU over the next 1-2 hours, but otherwise only an hour or two of light showers are expected at MSP & RNH. Very messy ceilings forecast through sunrise, with guidance wanting to fill in low MVFR to IFR stratus across the area, but some drier air mixing in after the rain ends has temporarily scoured out low clouds across much of the area. I do expect these low clouds to fill back in into the early morning hours, but we could see a few hours of VFR until then. We'll stay dry into this afternoon with low stratus likely sticking around through the day. Ceilings will be borderline MVFR/IFR, with IFR favored during the morning & some slight improvement to MVFR possible during the afternoon. Another round of rain showers arrives this evening, with a few thunderstorms likely from southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. KMSP...Could see sporadic wind gusts to 30 kts out of the east over the next hour or two as drier air behind the rain creates some turbulent winds. IFR ceilings look likely by sunrise & we'll likely hold on to these low ceilings into the afternoon. SOme improvement to above 1000 ft is likely during the afternoon, but ceilings could drop to IFR again tomorrow evening. Timing of the next round of rain looks to begin a as rain showers around 6-7 PM, with the best chance for some thunder between 9 PM to midnight. Scattered rain showers will continue on & off into early Tuesday morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR cigs becoming VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts. WED...VFR. Wind lgt and vrb. THU...VFR. Wind SE 10G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...ETA  114 FXUS65 KCYS 180554 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1154 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk of strong to severe storms this afternoon, mostly limited to the Nebraska Panhandle including both gusty winds and hail. - Accumulating snow expected Sunday night through Monday with Winter Storm Warnings for many of our high elevation and mountain zones and Winter Weather Advisories for attendant nearby zones. - Near record cold Monday and Monday night will lead to widespread freezing temperatures, which may damage sensitive vegetation and outdoor irrigation systems. - Slow warming trend by the mid to late week with temperatures near normal by Thursday and Friday. Chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms each day through Friday evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Notable instability has struggled to return to the region this afternoon, likely thanks to the progress of the boundary and clouds allowing some limiting of heating during the morning hours. But mesoanalysis does show some pockets of weak instability, and a few storms are forming just over the border in Colorado in a similarly unimpressive environment. With some stout shear in the southern Nebraska Panhandle we could see a storm or possibly two strengthen and produce some breezy winds or small hail thanks to low freezing levels, but at this point SPC has taken most of our area out of the Marginal Risk with only the southeastern Nebraska Panhandle remaining in, so our chances for stronger to severe weather are dwindling today. Moving into this evening, we'll shift gears away from severe weather and return to winter, with Winter Storm Warnings/Advisories out for a majority of the western portion of our CWA. At the upper levels, a low pressure system will swing into the Four Corners and then around and up into the Northern Plains, while at the surface we'll see some impressive cyclogenesis across Colorado. Similar to previous thinking, we should see the most favorable forcing located across south- central Wyoming including portions of Carbon and perhaps even Laramie Counties. Models remain in solid agreement on strong snowfall across this area, and this update doesn't feature many significant changes. Of note though, have seen some consistent forcing near the Sierra-Madre range that upgrading to a Warning seemed worthwhile, and while the whole range may land just shy of a foot of new snowfall, expecting enough locations around 12-16 inches that a warning felt justified. A Winter Weather Advisory was also issued for the Laramie Valley, and while easterly flow may help to preclude stronger accumulations, northern portions of this zone as well as along the interstate should see enough accumulation or at least reduced visibility from heavy, wet, and blowing snow. Speaking of reduced visibility, 850 mb pressure gradients show some very stout gradients from Craig to Casper, and strong winds will accompany this snowfall with gusts of 30-50 mph possible. For now, still holding off on upgrading even further to Blizzard Warnings as confidence is just not high enough that we will see widespread reductions in visibility. But the HREF does paint some swaths of around 40-60% probability across Carbon County for Blizzard conditions, and this will need to be monitored closely moving into tonight in case confidence grows further. With stout cold air overspreading the region and locations west of the Laramie Range expected to see snow on the ground, temperatures will plummet on Monday. Widespread highs are only expected to max at the low 30's to 40's, and by the evening these will bottom out as we move overnight into Tuesday morning. Skies should also begin clearing overnight which will aid in radiational cooling, and many locations across the CWA may tie or set new all time low temperature records. Outside of the mountain zones, every zone in our area is now under a Freeze Watch for this timeframe, though the Nebraska Panhandle may struggle in some locations to reach 28 degrees, the needed low for Freeze products. Nonetheless, unseasonable cold will be here and lows across the entire region are expected to reach at or below freezing (including teens in Carbon County), which will impact plants and crops as well as outdoor equipment. Take the appropriate precautions now for this late season freeze. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Certainly less active than the short term, but the long term period will still have some impacts, with the main story being the record- breaking cold in the wake of a vigorous winter storm. Tuesday morning will start out in the 20s in a cold advection regime, hence the issuance of freeze watches/warnings to account for agricultural impacts and recently planted vegetation given the recent mild pattern. In fact, LREF 10th percentile temperatures show Rawlins getting well into the teens for a low Tuesday morning, which seems reasonable given ample snow cover and cold advection. Tuesday will also feature high temperatures 15-20 degrees below climatology, resulting in highs in the 40s for our Wyoming counties and 50s for our Nebraska counties. We will likely dip below freezing again on Tuesday night especially in regions that don't melt away all of their snow (i.e. areas west of the I-25 corridor). On Wednesday, temperatures will gradually moderate into the upper 50s to near 60 east of the Laramie Range and upper 40s to lower 50s west given weak isentropic ascent/warm advection as the longwave trough responsible for our anomalously cool weather dampens. There may be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and thunderstorms primarily over the higher terrain, however probabilities of seeing QPF > 0.05" are running at about 25%, so any moisture is unlikely to be beneficial. Given dry boundary layers as shown on model forecast soundings show a very dry boundary layer with surface dewpoint depressions exceeding 40 degrees, showers and thunderstorms will likely produce far more wind than rain. Temperatures gradually warm on Thursday and Friday as a series of shortwave troughs embedded in quasi-zonal flow traverse across Eastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska, leaving in low (30%) chances for high-based showers and thunderstorms. Highs will gradually increase to climatological values (mid-upper 60s for Cheyenne to near 70 for the Nebraska Panhandle). Heading into the weekend, we will begin to dry out and encounter a faster warming trend to above- average temperatures as weak mid-level ridging establishes itself over the Rocky Mountain West, with no widespread or beneficial precipitation chances in sight. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1153 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Aviation trends over the next 12 hours will consist of deteriorating conditions as a winter system pushes into the area. Rain will transition to snow at southeast Wyoming terminals, causing visibility reductions and low CIGs. Windy conditions around KRWL could also lead to areas of blowing snow, further reducing visibility. Western Nebraska terminals will primarily see rain, however low CIGs will likely develop during the morning hours. Snow will continue through the day at southeast Wyoming terminals, so IFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. MVFR conditions are more likely at Nebraska terminals for the first part of the day, with CIGs continuing to lower through the afternoon to IFR criteria. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for WYZ101-102-106>108-113-115>119. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Monday for WYZ101-105- 106-111-115-117. Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 10 AM MDT Monday for WYZ102. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Monday for WYZ103-104-110- 112-114-116. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for WYZ104-105-109>111. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Monday for WYZ109. NE...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...NB AVIATION...SF  212 FXUS61 KILN 180556 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 156 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High temperatures Monday and Tuesday were adjusted down from the NBM. Wind gusts were increased this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm conditions persist through Tuesday. The next cold front approaches the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, moving through the region late Tuesday night bringing renewed rain chances through midweek, followed by cooler temperatures behind the front for mid to late week. 2) Strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A period of well above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday ahead of a cold front that passes through the area late Tuesday night. For today and Tuesday, high temperatures range from the mid-upper 80s to around 90. Temperatures on Wednesday are mitigated in the wake of the front, along with any showers and thunderstorms. Highs are expected to range from near 70 northwest to around 80 southeast. Temperatures cool behind the passage of the front Wednesday, lingering into Thursday. Temperatures climb back to above normal Friday and into the weekend. With the increase in temperatures and moisture, some unsettled weather will return for the weekend. Around the periphery of the mid and upper level ridge a corridor of moderate instability will allow thunderstorms to move into portions of west central Ohio and eastern Indiana late in the afternoon or early evening hours. The instability diminishes which will allow the storms to weaken quickly. Chance PoPs are limited to eastern Indiana and western Ohio, generally west of I-75. KEY MESSAGE 2) Moderate instability develops Tuesday with SBCAPE values around 2500 K/KG developing in the warm sector during the afternoon - ahead of an approaching sfc cold front. Forecast soundings indicate unidirectional wind flow with effective shear of 20 to 25 kts. Expect damaging winds with blowing segments to the the main threat. Hail will also be possible within the strongest storms, with this threat focused over the northwest. The severe threat decreases with eastward due to the likelihood for storms to arrive later in the evening or into the overnight as instability is decreasing. PWATs increase to 1.6 to 1.8 inches which will offer heavy rain rates and the potential for localized flooding. There continues to be some uncertainty regarding exact timing but at this time the most favored timeframe looks to be from 3 pm Tuesday afternoon to 3 AM Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail sans KLUK where morning valley fog will result in MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions. Few to scattered cumulus clouds will develop with heating this afternoon. Storms that develop west of the TAF sites decrease in coverage and intensity as they move east - so just have some mid and high level clouds later in the day into this evening. The best chance for observing a storm is at KDAY but even there the threat is too low to mention in the forecast. Southerly winds at 5 to 10 kt this morning increase during the day with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday and then again on Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR  231 FXUS65 KBOU 180557 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1157 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storm chance waning, and mostly confined to far southeastern portions of the forecast area into early evening. - Rain and mountain/foothill snow increases tonight through Monday with much colder temperatures arriving. - Accumulating snow for the mountains, and >70% chance of accumulation in the foothills. Only a few wet snowflakes possibly mixed in for the I-25 Corridor. - One last spring freeze possible on some of the plains Monday night. - Delay in the warming and drying trend for the week ahead, but still warmer and drier by Friday - next weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 153 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Satellite shows widespread convective development this afternoon with showers and storms spreading from the mountains and foothills northeast across the plains. The first cold front had pushed all the way to the CO/New Mexico border, and thus most of the instability was much farther south. There has been a slight return of southeast flow into El Paso County, so a little recovery of instability could occur with a few hundred J/kg of ML/MU CAPE over the Palmer Divide. However, showers and a few storms were already developing and will limit additional heating and destabilization. Thus, the threat of any severe weather is decreasing, although an isolated severe storm would still be possible over Elbert or Lincoln Counties into early evening. While threat of severe storms is decreasing, the coverage of rain and mountain snow will be on the increase through the next 24 hours. This will be supported by increasing QG lift and upslope as an upper level trough digs sharply into the Great Basin tonight, and then lifts northeast across the forecast area Monday. The orientation of this trof axis keeps a dry slot over the eastern plains so after this afternoon's/evening's convection we should see some drying roughly southeast of the I-76 Corridor overnight. Meanwhile, periods of showers and a couple storms will continue farther north and west overnight. The atmospheric column will start to cool especially late tonight through diabatic cooling and eventual cooling aloft as the trough axis approaches. That means rain changing over to snow for our higher elevations, and likely working down to about 8,000 feet in the northern foothills by daybreak Monday. Snow levels will continue to drop through the day as further cooling occurs. While 700 mb temps drop to -5 to -6C by late afternoon Monday, wet bulb zero levels suggest (all) snow levels only dropping to around 6500 feet. We'll also be battling May sun angle and some solar insolation, so getting snow down into the major metro areas will be challenging. Nonetheless, a few snowflakes will be possible in the late afternoon or the evening hours as temperatures continue to cool and the airmass dries slightly. The chance of any snow accumulation for most of the Urban Corridor is less than 20%, and those amounts would be just a dusting to less than one half inch. The heaviest snow is still expected for areas above 8,500 feet in the northern tier of mountains and highest foothills including Rocky Mountain National Park, with totals of 6-15 inches there. Totals will gradually decrease southward into the mountains of Summit County (3-8 inches), and then less than that in the southern foothills and high mountain valleys including those around Dillon (trace to 3 inches). We've opted to add Zone 31 (northern Gore and Park Ranges) to the Winter Weather Advisory, and also extend that into mid evening for lingering snow and travel impacts. Storm total liquid precipitation through Monday evening should range from 0.75-1.5 inches north of Denver, to less than 0.5 inches southeast of I-76 on the plains and south of I-70 in the mountains. Temperatures on Monday will be significantly cooler, with near steady or even slowly falling temperatures along the I-25 Corridor through the lower 40s when the heaviest precipitation arrives late Monday morning into Monday afternoon. We're still eyeing potential for freezing temperatures on all of the plains for late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, but this still depends on whether we clear out and winds subside fully. It appears the eastern plains could still have a little wind, while I-25 Corridor should hold onto more clouds. For now, we've issued a Freeze Watch for all of the lower elevations, as temperatures will drop very close to freezing in urban areas, and likely a degree or two below that in rural locations. Overall, there was a delay in ejecting the entire trough axis to our east. It now appears the trough lingers to our west all the way through Wednesday with another shortwave potentially for Thursday in northwest flow. Essentially, this will keep a higher chance of showers and a couple storms in the forecast through Thursday, while also delaying our warmup slightly. Once the kicking wave Thursday passes by, we still expect a warming and drying trend into next weekend, with above normal temperatures finally returning for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Isolated to scattered showers will hang around the terminals for much of the overnight period. KBJC will have the highest chance of seeing additional showers overnight, but KAPA and KDEN could also see periodic light rain. Shower coverage will start to increase in the early morning, with widespread showers and storms likely impacting all TAF sites by 16Z to 17Z. Rain is then expected to continue for multiple hours before eventually moving off to the east around 21Z to 23Z. Isolated to scattered showers will still linger around the area for a few more hours before rain chances come to an end in the late evening. Ceilings are currently MVFR to IFR across the area, with CIGs continuing to drop overnight. By Monday morning, all TAF sites will likely have CIGs below 1000ft, with a low to medium chance (30 to 40%) that KAPA and KBJC drop to LIFR. Low clouds will continue throughout the day Monday into Tuesday morning. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ031-034. Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ033. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for COZ038>051. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...AP  171 FXUS65 KTFX 180556 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1156 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation largely subside later this evening. - Two cold nights ahead, with lows in the 20s for many areas. - Slowly trending warmer through the week, with a few rounds of precipitation at times. && .UPDATE... /Issued 747 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026/ Updated forecast is out. Main change was to end the winter weather advisory over the far northern and souther portions of the area, along with increasing pops over Central MT this evening. A band of light rain/snow continues to move southward through the Fort Benton/Great Falls/Sieben Flats area. Additional snowfall through this evening of an inch or two is possible in the remaining advisory area that goes through Midnight. Otherwise, any snow at lower elevations will mostly just melt on contact. Some patchy fog is possible by morning in areas that had rain/snow today. Overnight lows look on track, with a potential frost for some areas as well Mon morning. A few isolated storms Mon/Tue along the divide from Lincoln north to the St. Mary and across the Hi-Line area on Tue, otherwise, the next more widespread lower elevation rain and mountain snow arrives on Wed. Brusda && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 747 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: The core of the upper level troughing is beginning to track east of the region this afternoon, resulting in a northerly flow aloft. Northerly/northwesterly upslope precipitation continues this afternoon, with additional precipitation developing in the form of showers, mainly across Southwest MT and vicinity. Loss of daytime heating and upslope flow will allow for precipitation to come to an end this evening. Lighter northerly flow aloft continues into tonight though, which will allow for quite a cold night across the region. Most locations look to fall into the 20s, with a few cold prone locations dipping into the teens. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out tonight, though coverage will depend on where most precipitation falls through the remainder of the day today. Cool air aloft persists into Monday, which will combine with daytime heating to result in a mix of rain and snow showers across the region. Slightly warmer air aloft begins to move in Monday night, though lingering cooler air at the surface will result in another cold night before temperatures trend closer to average during the day Tuesday. A few afternoon showers will be around Tuesday, but overall coverage of the showers is questionable at this time. Several disturbances pass across the region within a northwest flow aloft Wednesday onward, which will allow for a couple stretches of precipitation. Temperatures over this timeframe slowly trend warmer, though this trend will be briefly interrupted by the showery conditions at times. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Cold temperatures tonight and Monday night: The probability for an overnight low below 32F is nearly 100% in all areas tonight. That probability isn't quite as high for Monday night, but is at or greater than 50% in the overwhelming majority of areas. Precipitation Wednesday: A sharper trough looks to pass across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. This trough looks cool enough to result in some mountain snow, but most precipitation looks to fall as rain. Areas along the Rocky Mountian Front and across Central Montana terrain have a roughly 30% probability for 0.25" liquid from this system. -AM && .AVIATION... 18/06Z TAF Period Southwest Montana (KBZN, KEKS, KWYS): VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period. Low to mid-level clouds are expected to persist through the night as some lingering mountain snow starts to taper off heading towards the late morning. As for fog chances, because a BKN to OVC mid-level cloud deck is expected to stick around through most of the night, the probability of fog development across Southwest Montana remains rather low. KWYS still has the highest probability at 20% but even then it is unlikely unless the clouds start to clear out overnight. Should the clouds clear at any of the three terminals then fog will be a concern. But otherwise mountain obscuration will be the primary concern through the first half of the TAF period. North-Central and Central Montana: Low clouds will gradually start to push out of the region as the night goes on but, in the meantime, some low-VFR/high-MVFR CIGs are possible at KHVR, KGTF, and KHLN. At KLWT, light snow is possible on and off throughout most of the night with IFR to LIFR CIGs possible at times. Mountain obscuration will remain a concern through the night across portions of Central Montana. In terms of fog, the main concerns will be KCTB, which has already cleared out, and KGTF which is set to clear out in the next couple hours. For both locations there is around a 40% chance of fog development during the night. Additionally, there is a 20% chance for fog developing at KHVR, however, there is less confidence that the clouds will be able to clear out in time to pose a significant fog threat tonight. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected across North- Central and Central Montana after 18/18Z. -thor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 28 52 29 63 / 90 10 0 30 CTB 24 54 31 63 / 20 20 10 20 HLN 31 55 29 62 / 30 10 10 20 BZN 25 51 22 60 / 20 10 0 10 WYS 21 41 16 51 / 10 10 10 20 DLN 25 48 23 60 / 20 10 10 20 HVR 27 54 26 66 / 40 10 0 50 LWT 27 46 23 59 / 60 40 0 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls