338 FXUS63 KDVN 180600 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 100 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...06z Aviation Update.. .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight/Marginal (level 1+2 out of 5) risk for severe weather tonight. Primary threats will be damaging wind and heavy rain. - There is an Enhanced/Slight (level 2+3 out of 5) risk for severe weather Monday. All hazards will be possible. - Breezy and cooler Tuesday, with dry conditions expected through at least Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A shortwave evident on water vapor over eastern MN aided by strong upper level divergence and a 35kt LLJ allowed for some scattered thunderstorms to develop over northeast IA and northwest IL this morning. Elsewhere light showers occurred for some and has now diminished. A persistent deck of stratus stretching from north central IA towards southwest WI kept our far northwest counties a little cooler today. A warm front extended from southwest WI, towards Waterloo and westward along the Hwy 20 corridor. Another subtle outflow boundary was seen over central IA just north of DSM, where low clouds were observed. Breezy south winds and humid conditions will continue this afternoon and evening, with the 18z DVN sounding already sampling 33kts at top of mixed layer (880mb). An increasing LLJ ahead of main surface low, may allow some scattered showers to develop over northern IA this evening, but should stay west of the local area. Attention then turns to storm evolution out in the Plains. Tonight...latest 12z CAMs and REFS solutions suggest this MCS to remain to our west until after midnight tonight and then track east-southeast through the CWA. Current thinking is similar to previous shift where this activity moves through in a decaying mode through sunrise, since CAPE/shear overlap quickly diverges overnight. Wouldn't be surprised if two lines of storms occur with one following the CAPE gradient to the south, and another staying just to our north where better kinematics will be located. Nonetheless, cold pool propagation mechanics to still support a damaging wind threat as storms enter our northwest CWA tonight. High PWs will also bring a heavy rain threat, with 12z HREF 3-hr PMM values over 1.5" in spots tonight. Progressive nature of storms should limit flash flood potential at least for tonight. Monday...lingering showers and thunderstorms will be seen through the morning (perhaps an MCV?) that may keep severe risk around until mid-day. How quickly the atmosphere recovers will be key to how soon we see convection later in the day. A dry period is anticipated late morning/early afternoon, with strong southerly flow allowing for airmass recovery and building instability. There is high confidence that CI will occur well to the west of the CWA, with initial cells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. However, how long semi-discrete cells maintain until becoming more linear is still uncertain and there is still quite the variance in the timing and evolution of storms that will hopefully be ironed out in the next 12-18 hours. The general consensus is for another late evening/overnight show locally with a messy storm mode (multicells-squall line?) moving through west to east with severe winds/embedded mesovorts becoming the primary threats. Heavy rain will become more a concern with this round depending on who receives rain tonight, with some localized areas very well could end up receiving 3+ inches of rain! This is suggested by the 12z HREF 48-hr PMM generally along and south of I-80. WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall for the entire area and will need to be monitored for further messaging in later forecasts. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Tuesday...cold front to push through the area in the morning, with precip chances quickly exiting to the east and southeast. Some breezy northwest winds may occur for a few hours behind the front, ushering in cooler and drier air. Some isolated CAA showers may develop in the afternoon east of MS RVR, but will quickly exit out of the area. Afternoon highs to top out in the mid 60s near Waterloo, to near 80 degrees near Peoria. Wednesday through Saturday...The latest ensembles suggest high pressure regime to shunt the main storm track to the south of the region for mush of the mid to late week period. Cooler temps in the 60s moderating back to the 70s by Friday. The next main chance for precip may not come until Friday if the latest wave-handling by the ensembles is correct. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Will walk the line of weakening showers and thunderstorms through the TAF sites through 11z this morning. They may have an hour of higher wind gusts of 35-45 KTs or so, then transition to more of stratiform rain bands with embedded thunder behind the main line. This secondary activity to wane by 15z Monday morning. Away from the storms breezy southerly sfc winds gusting up to at least 25 KTs, and aloft strong LLVL jet of 45-55 KTs. Later Monday afternoon again gusty southerly winds and mainly VFR clouds lingering into Monday evening, then the watch will be on for another line of thunderstorms moving in from the west toward and after the end of the TAF period. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gross LONG TERM...Gross/12 AVIATION...12  351 FXUS63 KLOT 180600 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 100 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday, some of which could be severe at times. - Summer-like warmth and breezy winds at times will prevail through Tuesday before cooler temperatures return for the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A robust convectively-augmented MCV continues to pivot north out of southern Wisconsin and away from our region early this afternoon. Modest large scale height rises will develop over the local region which will promote precip-free conditions across the area the rest of the afternoon. The one exception might be across our far northwest where some lingering glancing ascent co-located with cooler mid-level temperatures may support some lingering spotty sprinkles. In advance of our next weather-maker, tonight will feature warm and somewhat humid conditions. With a tightening surface pressure gradient and only modest decoupling, should see at least intermittent gusty southerly breezes through the night. Expansive strong to severe convection is expected to develop later this afternoon and evening across the central and northern Great Plains along an eastward-advancing cold front. Given the strong nature of low-level forcing with the front, it's not surprising that there's good model agreement suggesting upscale growth into one or two expansive MCSs through the evening hours. While some timing discrepancies remain, there's a general consensus for this activity to approach our forecast area just prior to daybreak Monday morning. Deep layer shear over the local area is not forecast to be particularly robust, and generally oriented from southwest to northeast, roughly parallel to the progged MCS(s). This overall is not favorable-- combined with the time of day and nocturnally-stabilized boundary layer--for robust convective sustenance. At this time, it appears the most probable scenario is for a decaying thunderstorm complex, potentially with lingering strong gusty outflow and maybe some cores with a small hail potential, to push into the region through Monday morning. In this scenario, expansive cloud cover, trailing stratiform rain, and some embedded thunderstorms may linger well into Monday afternoon across the northwest half of the CWA (roughly NW of I-55). This would obviously significantly reduce the subsequent afternoon severe weather threat across this area. If this morning complex doesn't just surge through the entire forecast region (which remains a potential), muted insolation, with the bulk of the anvil blow off likely streaming northeast as opposed to easterly, may facilitate destabilization through midday and into the afternoon south and east of I-55. This could support gradually-increasing storm organization and intensification. That said, progged shear profiles still aren't anything spectacular with the main mid/upper jet cores still relegated well to the west. Given this, it seems like the locally greatest threat for strong-severe storms exists across the eastern half of the CWA from about midday through the afternoon. In this scenario, deeper boundary layer mixing would also promote increasing southwesterly wind gusts, possibly pushing 40 mph. If the overnight complex fizzles prior to reaching our area, the severe threat would likely increase across more of the region, although this currently looks like a lower potential at this time based on the latest multi-model consensus. Today's guidance paints a similar picture/evolution to things for Monday night into Tuesday as the main cold front will sweep west to east through the region Tuesday afternoon. Onceagain, a potential for mainly sub-severe morning convection exists, followed by a threat for more robust storm development on the advancing cold front midday into the afternoon. While deep layer shear is forecast to be a bit more significant than Monday, instability could once again be muted significantly by morning convection. In the wake of the cold front, breezy northwesterly winds will develop Tuesday/Tuesday night before turning north/northeasterly on Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region. A period of tranquil weather is in store until the end of the week and next weekend when the next series of disturbances will bring additional chances of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms to the area. Carlaw && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - Line of showers and embedded thunderstorms to move through northern IL and northwest IN late tonight into Monday morning. A few storms could be strong with a threat for locally gusty winds. - Breezy south-southwest winds Monday afternoon with gusts around 25 kts. - Another period of showers and possible storms late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Latest radar imagery continues to show a line of showers and thunderstorms stretching from MN to KS that is racing towards northern IL and eventually northwest IN. Arrival time of this line continue to be around 09z at RFD and between 10-12z for the Chicago area terminals. While lightning trends within the line segment heading towards the terminals has been decreasing, recent AMDAR sounding out of MDW continue to show steep mid- level lapse rates (around 7-8 C/km) which could still support an occasional lightning strike as the line moves through. Additionally, a few stronger showers/storms are possible and could result in localized gusty winds and maybe some small hail. Once the line of showers/storms arrives, it should move through within 3-4 hours at each site. However, with the expected arrival time around daybreak there continues to be a chance that some renewed development could occur within the line as it traverses the area, especially south of I-80. If this occurs as guidance suggests then shower/storm activity could persist through the morning before things fully exit the area. It was for this reason that the long PROB30 was maintained, but hopefully we can refine this window as the line arrives. After the line exits the area around midday, breezy south- southwest winds will develop and persist through the afternoon. Gusts during this period look to generally be around 25 kts but locally higher gusts (upwards of 30kts) are possible. While there is still a non-zero chance (15-20%) for additional shower and/or thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, latest guidance trends have continued to back off on this scenario given that the better forcing for storms will be centered to our west in IA. That said, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop in IA this afternoon and move into northern IL and northwest IN late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Though, the coverage of these storms into our area looks much more limited (especially the thunder coverage) so have opted to introduce a PROB30 for SHRA in the 30-hour TAFs for now. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  488 FXUS65 KBOI 180601 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1201 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy conditions overnight, with frost and freeze possible in the Snake Plain, mostly east of Mountain Home. - Mountain showers on Monday, otherwise dry, breezy and slightly warmer. - Dry with temperatures warming back above normal starting on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Issued 237 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026 Widely scattered showers this evening will dissipate with sunset, leaving dry conditions and clear skies overnight. The surface pressure gradient behind an eastward exiting low will keep breezy conditions across portions of SE Oregon and through much of the Snake Plain tonight. Low temperatures briefly drop to around freezing Monday morning in portions of the Snake Plain, reaching 31 to 35 degrees east of Mountain Home, while the lower Snake will fall to between 36 and 40 degrees. Have stayed with a Freeze Warning for the western Magic Valley. Monday will be dry and breezy across much of the area, though not as windy as today with gusts of 25-35 mph expected. Afternoon instability will support a slight chance of showers over the mtns but amounts will be light. Northwest flow aloft carries into Tuesday, but a more stable air mass will keep conditions dry across the region as temperatures warm back to near normal. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued 237 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026 High pressure building in aloft over the Pacific will keep our area under northwest flow to start the period. Wednesday into Thursday will feature increased cloud cover and light, isolated showers across the West Central Mountains, as an embedded shortwave moves through the intermountain west. This shortwave will also work to slow the warming trend in the long-term period. Come Saturday, a deepening Alaska low will give way to zonal flow aloft. Daytime highs of 5-10 degrees above normal and generally dry conditions are expected through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 1155 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026 Generally VFR. Patchy fog/stratus in sheltered mtn valleys through morning. Scattered showers redevelop Monday PM across E Oregon and mtns of SW Idaho. Brief MVFR/IFR and obscuration in mtn precip. Monday snow levels: 5500-6500 ft MSL. Surface winds: W-N 10-20 kt with areas of gusts to 20-25 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N-NE 20- 35 kt. KBOI...VFR. Foothill showers return Monday PM. Surface winds: W-NW 5- 15 kt overnight, then NW 10-18 kt with gusts around 25 kt after Mon/16Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for IDZ012-014-015- 029. Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT Monday for IDZ016. OR...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight for ORZ061>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SA SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....NF  622 FXUS64 KSJT 180603 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 103 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures expected through Monday. - Severe Storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The relatively quiet period before a busier rest of the week. Moist and unstable air mass remains across the area with CAPE values of 3000+ J/kg, but also fairly strongly capped with very warm mid level temperatures. Dryline will mix east to near the western border of the area and there will be some convergence along the dryline, but CAMs suggest not enough to overcome the cap. Will leave POPs out of the forecast for this. Will include some low POPs across the southeast counties where better low level moisture and a weaker cap suggest that a few showers and storms may develop across Mexico and cross through the Hill Country this evening. Will include a mention of isolated POPs down there. Dry for Monday for now, except for a small area across the northwest Big Country. Most of the CAMs are dry, but NAMNEST has been persistent in showing some convection developing during the morning hours and shift east across the area. Cap remains strong and will likely hold, but given the persistence from the NAMNEST will include a small POP over that area. Otherwise, breezy and warm to continue with highs into the upper 80s and lower 90s across many area. Behind the dryline across the northwest Big Country, may see a few readings near the century mark. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A trough remains in place across the Four Corners region on Tuesday and we will continue to see embedded disturbances within the flow aloft. Meanwhile, a pronounced dryline will be sitting just to our west again. This will combine with a cold frontal boundary moving into our area sometime on Tuesday morning into early afternoon. The combination of these three features will allow for more substantial support for thunderstorm development across the region. Rain chances will therefore be high (70-80%) on Tuesday. It still remains a bit uncertain how far south the frontal boundary will move into western Central Texas. This boundary appears to stall across the Concho Valley, which would help to prolong the rain chances. Conditions are favorable for this activity to be strong to severe as it moves through on Tuesday. In fact, we are indeed outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center. The main hazards with this activity will be large hail and damaging winds. By the time Wednesday rolls around, another low pressure strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and starts moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding for Wednesday. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this system moves east for the later half of the work week. This leaves a high rain chance (80%) in place for Thursday. Some remnants may linger into Friday, however, lower chances (30- 40%) will be in place for Friday. All of this activity from Tuesday onward will have to be monitoredclosely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Breezy south winds continue with winds up to 30 kts at KABI and 20-25KTS farther south. MVFR stratus had already developed over southern terminals and will spread north to KSJT and KABI overnight. Stratus will rise or scatter out to VFR midday to early afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 93 73 87 64 / 20 20 80 70 San Angelo 94 72 93 63 / 10 20 70 70 Junction 90 73 91 65 / 10 0 60 80 Brownwood 89 72 88 64 / 10 10 70 70 Sweetwater 99 72 88 62 / 20 20 80 60 Ozona 93 72 90 64 / 10 0 60 60 Brady 88 72 89 65 / 10 10 70 80 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...04  623 FXUS65 KTFX 180603 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1203 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly mountain showers today, with dry and cool conditions elsewhere. - Another cold night is in store tonight across the valleys of Southwest and Central Montana, with a high chance for a hard freeze. - Temperatures moderate through rest of the work week, but daily chances for showers exist. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: One final day of well below normal temperatures can be expected as cool, cyclonic northwest flow prevails over the Northern Rockies, with additional opportunities for predominately mountain precipitation, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. By this afternoon upper level ridging over the Eastern Pacific will begin to amplify, with overall rising heights across much of the Western CONUS. While this ridge will amplify over the Eastern Pacific it will fail to build east and over the Northern Rockies through the work week, which will help to keep Southwest through North Central Montana beneath continued northwest flow aloft. While temperatures will moderate beneath the rising heights aloft there will be daily chances for showers and storms throughout the work week, especially from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning when a compact shortwave dives southeast and over the Northern Rockies within the aforementioned northwest flow aloft. This shortwave looks to bring the best chance for widespread precipitation this week, with most lower elevations seeing light rainfall up to 0.10" and the mountains seeing between 0.10" to 0.25". The exception to this will be the northerly upslope areas of Central Montana, Island Ranges of Central Montana, and Continental Divide where precipitation amounts of between 0.10" to 0.25" and 0.25" to 0.50" are possible for plain and mountain locations, respectively. This weekend the upper level flow will become quasi-zonal, which will lead to increasing surface winds and warming temperatures, with most locations climbing above to well above normal. - Moldan - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Cold Temperatures Tonight... Upper level ridging building in over the Northern Rockies combined with overall light surface winds and mostly clear skies will setup ideal radiational cooling processes across much of Southwest through North Central Montana tonight, with the exception of the immediate Rocky Mountain Front where southwest surface wind will be just strong enough to inhibit surface decoupling. With below normal temperatures already in place thanks to this weekends disturbance temperatures will cool efficient tonight; with a 50% or greater chance that values fall below freezing across most locations and 70% or greater chance for a hard freeze across most valley locations in Southwest and Central Montana. Those with early season gardening interest should be prepared to take protective measure for sensitive vegetation. Below is the NBM5.0 probabilities for certain temperatures for select locations across North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana tonight. Low Temperature Probabilities LOCATION <36F | <32F | <28F Browning 100% | 55% | <5% Cut Bank 95% | 60% | 20% Havre 100% | 80% | 40% Great Falls 95% | 60% | 25% Lewistown 100% | 100% | 85% Helena 85% | 45% | 5% Bozeman 100% | 100% | 85% Dillon 100% | 100% | 70% Ennis 100% | 100% | 90% West Yellowstone 100% | 100% | 100% Gusty Winds and Choppy Water this Memorial Day Weekend... Increasing south to west surface winds over the holiday weekend, specifically on Sunday and Monday, is likely to lead to choppy water conditions on area lakes, reservoirs, and long fetches of rivers. NBM5.0 probabilities for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph across most of Southwest through North Central Montana range from a 20-40% chance on Sunday and between a 40-60% chance on Monday, with the exception of the Rocky MOuntain Front where a 40-75% chance exists both days. Those with plans to recreate on waterways should be prepared for choppy conditions, especially considering that local waterways will be significantly colder than the ambient air temperature due to snowmelt. These choppy conditions and cold water temperatures will create an increased risk for drowning should a person fall into the water without proper safety equipment. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 18/06Z TAF Period Southwest Montana (KBZN, KEKS, KWYS): VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period. Low to mid-level clouds are expected to persist through the night as some lingering mountain snow starts to taper off heading towards the late morning. As for fog chances, because a BKN to OVC mid-level cloud deck is expected to stick around through most of the night, the probability of fog development across Southwest Montana remains rather low. KWYS still has the highest probability at 20% but even then it is unlikely unless the clouds start to clear out overnight. Should the clouds clear at any of the three terminals then fog will be a concern. But otherwise mountain obscuration will be the primary concern through the first half of the TAF period. North-Central and Central Montana: Low clouds will gradually start to push out of the region as the night goes on but, in the meantime, some low-VFR/high-MVFR CIGs are possible at KHVR, KGTF, and KHLN. At KLWT, light snow is possible on and off throughout most of the night with IFR to LIFR CIGs possible at times. Mountain obscuration will remain a concern through the night across portions of Central Montana. In terms of fog, the main concerns will be KCTB, which has already cleared out, and KGTF which is set to clear out in the next couple hours. For both locations there is around a 40% chance of fog development during the night. Additionally, there is a 20% chance for fog developing at KHVR, however, there is less confidence that the clouds will be able to clear out in time to pose a significant fog threat tonight. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected across North- Central and Central Montana after 18/18Z. -thor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 52 29 63 40 / 10 0 30 10 CTB 54 31 63 38 / 20 10 20 10 HLN 55 29 62 38 / 10 10 20 0 BZN 51 22 60 34 / 10 0 10 0 WYS 41 16 51 24 / 10 10 20 0 DLN 48 23 60 30 / 10 10 20 0 HVR 54 26 66 41 / 10 0 50 10 LWT 46 23 59 36 / 40 0 30 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  665 FXUS61 KOKX 180605 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 205 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Air quality alerts in effect for portions of the region on Monday. Otherwise, no other significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike temperatures through Wednesday 2) A cold front moves across Wednesday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Brief gusty winds and locally heavy rain possible. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this weekend with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the lower 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak back door cold front approaches the region tonight as high pressure moves southeast across coastal New England. Overall, a weak pressure gradient is in place. Winds will become light and variable in direction. Then on Monday, this front moves back east of the region. Winds become more southeast on Monday with some gusts along the coast. Mid level ridging increases tonight into Monday. The subsidence is expected to keep dry weather conditions and not much in the way of cloud coverage. The temperature differences across the region will be more apparent on Monday due to the back door cold front. Locations farther east will be cooler with more onshore maritime influence (highs in the 70s) while locations to the north and west of NYC will be some of the warmest relatively (highs in the upper 80s to near 90). The 850mb temperatures do show a remarkable increase amongst the numerical weather prediction models, going up near 3 to 4 degrees C during the day Monday. The local area gets more into the warm sector Monday night through Tuesday night. Tuesday, the models show another degree warmth in 850mb temperatures. For the whole area, much warmer temperatures expected Tuesday compared to Monday. With dewpoints not changing much from the previous day, the apparent temperatures will likewise increase as well. This is looking to be the warmest day of the week with highest heat indices as well. Forecast high temperatures are ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat indices right near the actual temperature with some locations about a degree higher than the actual temperature. No locations are forecast to reach 100 degrees temperature. The blend of temperatures was from MOS consensus and NBM. NBM alone seemed too high but after noting the relatively greater warmth of ECMWF and Canadian 850mb temperatures, did not want to lower temperatures too much. May be an isolated shower or thunderstorm late Tuesday into Tuesday evening with the instability and potential surface trough development. Otherwise, weather remains mainly dry. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Mid level heights lower more during the day Wednesday with more cooling apparent in the models 850mb fields Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening. The numerical weather prediction models continue to show a quicker trend to the movement of the cold front with even the 12Z Sunday NAM showing the cold front moving across much of the area by 5PM Wednesday. With the front moving through during the afternoon hours and being south of the region by the start of the evening, this will really limit the daytime warmth and therefore the instability that will enhance thunderstorm activity. Chances of thunderstorms for western half of the region with warmer temperatures forecast, slight chance of thunderstorms for eastern half of the region with cooler temperatures forecast. The bulk shear 0-6 km AGL forecast values of near 30-40 kt could very well overcome that lack of instability and allow for some stronger thunderstorms which would bring some brief strong gusty winds and a quick period of heavy rain. Not too concernedwith flooding potential because of the rapid movement expected of the front and associated showers and thunderstorms. Flow aloft has more westerly component instead of southerly component. Severe thunderstorm potential seems to be marginal with this kind of environment. The high temperatures on Wednesday were lowered from NBM by also blending with MOS consensus, mainly near 80 to 90 degree range. Would expect these temperatures to be set by early afternoon and then start declining with the showers and thunderstorms as well as the cooler air advecting in behind the cold front. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid to upper 60s and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns today as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak high pressure over the area early this morning will give way to weak backdoor cold front dropping down along the New England coast and into the area later this morning. The front will quickly lift back to north as warm front later in the afternoon. VFR through the TAF period. Light winds overnight will vary from SW to variable, becoming E/SE during the morning hours, mainly after 09Z. Winds will gradually veer to a more southerly direction late morning into the afternoon, increasing to around 10kt with a some locations G15-18kt. KLGA is expected to be NE-ENE during the morning and early afternoon hours before veering to more southerly flow. KBDR also could hang on to an E wind into the afternoon, ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be more occasional Monday afternoon. Winds may also be more to the left of the current forecast Monday afternoon. This will depend on how much the area can heat up to mix down a more SSW direction. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Late Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt into eve. Isolated thunderstorm potential afternoon into early eve, mainly north of NYC terminals with brief MVFR or lower possible. Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with potential showers and thunderstorms. Showers likely afternoon into eve with a chance of thunderstorms. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible. NW windshift in the evening. Thursday-Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions remain on the waters through Monday night. Next chance for SCA will be Tuesday into Tuesday night with increasing southerly flow and fetch, mainly on the ocean. Marginal SCAconditions possible on Wednesday into Wednesday evening with otherwise conditions forecast to be below SCA thereafter through Friday. Cold water safety concerns today as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 17: KEWR: 68/2015 KBDR: 60/2025 KNYC: 70/1906 KLGA: 68/1965 KJFK: 63/1965 KISP: 62/2015 May 18: KEWR: 74/2017 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 75/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 65/2017 KISP: 63/1977 May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-176-178. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...DW MARINE...JM  679 FXUS64 KBMX 180605 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 105 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 102 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 - Rain chances increase starting Tuesday night and become a daily feature through the weekend as a cold front stalls across the region. - Warm conditions continue to start out the work week with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. && .DISCUSSION... (Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 As of writing, a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the southeastern portion of the CWA. The majority of convection this afternoon remained across the border in Georgia where low level convergence was maximized within a corridor of slightly higher moisture. Monday looks to feature a low (20-30%) chance for showers and storms as a passing H85-H7 shortwave interacts with an expanding plume of healthy moisture. Best chances will be across our southern and eastern areas. Rain chances begin to increase late Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the first of a series of shortwaves pass through the region. The upper ridge that has been influencing the area over the last few days will lose its grasp by mid week as an upper trough begins to move across the Plains. An associated cold front will sink across the southeast Wednesday into Thursday, eventually stalling and lingering through the end of the week. As a result, we will see continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. By the weekend, the stalled front retreats back to the north, leaving ample moisture in place across the region. Therefore, rain chances remain in the forecast. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with surface ridging in place across the Southeast US Coast. Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the south to southeast through the late morning hours today with a few gusts at times. There will be low, diurnally enhanced, afternoon rain chances for portions of Central Alabama, but it is too low to mention at any terminals at this time. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday afternoon will feature low chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across our southern and eastern areas. However, most locations will likely remain dry. Rain chances increase by mid week and continue into the weekend as a front stalls across the region. Fire weather concerns are not anticipated over the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 88 64 88 64 / 10 10 10 20 Anniston 87 65 88 65 / 10 10 10 10 Birmingham 89 69 89 68 / 10 10 10 40 Tuscaloosa 89 69 90 68 / 10 10 10 30 Calera 89 67 90 66 / 10 10 10 30 Auburn 88 67 89 68 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 89 66 90 68 / 30 10 10 10 Troy 88 65 89 67 / 20 10 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...08  729 FXUS64 KLIX 180606 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 106 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will affect areas mainly west of the I-55 corridor today. A few storms may be locally strong and capable of locally heavy rainfall. - Showers and thunderstorms will spread further eastward toward the I-59 corridor Tuesday and Wednesday, with more area-wide coverage Thursday through next weekend. Some of these daily storms could become strong and/or produce locally heavy rainfall. - Temperatures are forecast to be generally near to warmer than normal through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Upper ridging across much of the eastern half of the country tonight, with troughing over the Intermountain West. This is producing southwesterly upper flow just to our west. At the surface, a Bermuda High pattern extends west along the northern Gulf Coast. Frontal boundaries were over the Plains States. Temperatures and dew points were generally in the 70s during the late evening hours. With high pressure centered off the east coast, southeast winds will continue to bring moisture back into the area. A confluent zone between the high to our east and low pressure taking shape near the Four Corners is currently manifesting as a broad area of clouds stretching from southern Texas through the middle Mississippi Valley. The airmass remains rather moist with precipitable water values in the 1.6 to 1.8 range, in the neighborhood of the 90th percentile climatologically. Today and Tuesday will see similar conditions as we had on Sunday, although moisture may be a touch less, but not enough to make much difference in the soundings. The highest rain chances will generally across northwestern areas and an isolated threat of stronger storms producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. To be honest, current forecast PoPs for both days look a bit on the high side, at least 10 percent or so today, but that isn't a big enough change to chase. Will see how today plays out, but the expectation is that rain chances tomorrow will probably need lowered across the western half of the forecast area later today. Shortwave energy Wednesday and Thursday will be much closer to the area and suppressing the ridge somewhat, so higher precipitation chances are entirely reasonable, but 80 percent at BTR seems a little high for this pattern, by probably 20 percent. Will hold for now, as neighbors grids haven't departed from NBM either. Little day to day change in temperature trends. One could probably get away with using persistence rather than guidance through much of the workweek. Cloud cover and timing of precipitation development would be the main factors in any departure from guidance, and those will change from day to day. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The active southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place as the H5 ridge continues to reside over the northeast Gulf. Within the flow there will continue to be a series of upper level impulses that will help generate shower and thunderstorm activity, especially during the afternoon hours. The best potential for rainfall will be across the western half of the CWFA away from a bit stronger upper level subsidence in closer proximity to the ridge axis to our east. That said, there will be at least modest POPs for coastal MS. At this juncture, there will be a conditional severe threat...mostly associated with strong gusty winds. Additionally, the continued waves of showers and storms will also help produce at least a localized flooding threat, especially for the BTR area where there could be several days with afternoon convection. PWats are a also somewhat favorable with 1.5-1.8" with the higher values over the western portions of the CWFA. Again, this pattern pretty much locks in and remains in place throughout the long term period. With the increase in cloudiness and rain chances, temperatures will be a bit lower, but still around climo. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions should gradually deteriorate to MVFR over the next few hours as low CIGs develop. A few hours after sunrise, conditions should improve to VFR conditions and this should persist through the remainder of the cycle. There is a low chance for showers and storms west of the I55 corridor this afternoon, and will only carry PROB30 at KBTR and KMCB, and that may be overstating the threat. Any convection that does develop this afternoon should dissipate around sunset, if not sooner. A repeat of low ceilings will be possible Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Onshore flow will persist as high pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic. A tightening pressure gradient between this high and low pressure across the plains states will lead to strengthening winds, especially west of the Mississippi River. Exercise Caution headlines will remain in effect through the overnight hours. As moisture increases across the region, he chance of daily showers and storms will gradually increase, with the best chances later in the week as a weak front approaches the area. Some storms will be capable of producing locally hazardous winds and waves. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW  782 FXUS61 KCLE 180608 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 208 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) has been expanded east into Northwest Ohio for late Monday afternoon/evening. The Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Tuesday has also been expanded further east into Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages through early this week. The warmest days will be Monday and Tuesday when highs may approach daily records at a few sites. Cooler temperatures behind a cold front mid to late week. 2) Localized strong to severe storms possible across Northwest Ohio tomorrow. Widespread showers and storms Tuesday into early Wednesday, with severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Broad southwesterly to southerly flow will usher in much warmer and more humid conditions for Monday and Tuesday. Highs warm into the upper 80s areawide on Monday and mid 80s by Tuesday. Area dewpoints will peak in the mid-60s each afternoon. We will remain warm overnight in the upper 60s to lower 70s, providing little overnight relief. Temperatures through the first half of May have been below average which will likely lead to this quick hit of heat to feel noticeably warm. Take steps to reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the day and remain hydrated. A cold front will swing east across the region Tuesday into Wednesday allowing for a reprieve from above normal temperatures. Cooler Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 60s before highs reach the 70s Friday into next weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2... We'll begin the week mainly dry with some potential for showers and thunderstorms across the west in the afternoon and evening as an upper shortwave moves overhead. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a small portion of Northwest Ohio to a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) extending along a line from Marblehead to Carey and points west. This severe threat is driven by the potential for damaging winds and isolated large hail and supported by a narrow corridor of moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg) given the warm and moist advection. Expect for any convection that moves into the region to decrease in intensity as it pushes east into a less favorable environment Monday night. More widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will be likely on tuesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The entire forecast area is either under a Slight or Marginal Risk for severe weather with the delineation occurring along a line from Corry PA to Mount Gilead. Areas west of this line are under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) and areas east and south of this line under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5). The primary hazards will again be damaging winds and large hail given the instability and stronger low/mid level flow. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Mainly VFR expected for the TAF period, but with some convective potential. Convection will likely develop to the west this afternoon and spread towards TOL and FDY early this evening before weakening. Have a window of VCTS with a TEMPO for more significant restrictions at TOL and FDY early this evening. Some hints of isolated convection firing near YNG early this evening as well, though with lower confidence, so handled with VCSH. Outside of convective potential, afternoon cumulus will likely produce a SCT sky around 040-050 at times today. Winds are generally 5-10kt out of the south early this morning. Maintain some low-level wind shear at TOL and FDY with a roughly 40kt low-level jet overhead and a near-surface inversion early this morning. Winds will shift south-southwest and increase to 12-18kt with gusts to around 25kt late this morning into this afternoon. Thunderstorms may produce higher gusts at TOL/FDY. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms at western terminals Monday night. Non-VFR likely at times in showers/thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. Non-VFR possible in showers on Friday. && .MARINE... South winds are slightly elevated at 10-15kt early this morning and will continue today. Gusts up to 25kt are possible in the nearshore waters west of Cleveland this afternoon. Thunderstorms may reach western Lake Erie this evening, and could pack brief wind gusts over 35kt before dissipating while tracking east. Otherwise, southerly winds will remain slightly elevated at 10-15kt tonight into Tuesday. Winds increase a bit further to 15-20kt Tuesday afternoon, with gusts potentially up to 30kt in the nearshore waters west of Cleveland. Small craft headlines remain possible for Tuesday. There is additional thunderstorm potential spreading from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front, again with potential for storms over the lake to pack strong wind gusts over 35kt. Winds whip around to the north late Tuesday night into Wednesday behind the cold front, and gradually shift more northeasterly Wednesday into Thursday and more easterly for Friday. These winds are currently forecast to be around 15kt which would bring choppiness, but there is a chance winds trend up closer to 20kt Thursday into Friday, which could warrant some small craft/beach hazards headlines. && .CLIMATE... High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will approach record values. The following are the records for May 18 and 19 at local climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889) 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan  807 FXUS63 KARX 180609 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 109 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather possible between 7 PM and 1 AM tonight. All hazards are possible mainly west of the Mississippi River. - Another round of severe weather possible on Monday night between 9 PM and 4 AM. The main threat will be damaging winds. With isolated threats of hail and maybe a few QLCS tornadoes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 This Afternoon The remnant MCV which brought rain mainly south of Interstate 94 will continue to move northeast away from the area this afternoon. As it does, the showers and isolated storms currently along Interstates 90 and 94 will move east northeast away from the area. Additional rainfall amounts will be up to a half inch. As a warm front gradually lifts northward, temperatures along and south of Interstate 94 will warm into the 60s and lower 70s, and into 60s north of this Interstate. This will result in surface-based CAPES climbing into the 1000 to 2500 J/kg along and south of Interstate 90 by 7 pm. Tonight Late this afternoon and evening, 2-3K J/kg CAPES will develop ahead of a squall line moving east across eastern South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, northern Iowa, and southern Minnesota. with 0-6 km shear approaching 40 knots, there could potentially be some supercells located along the line (these would likely stay west of the Upper Mississippi River Vally) and along the warm front near the Minnesota and Iowa boarder. In addition to the deep shear, there is 200-300 EHI along the Minnesota and Iowa boarder and downdraft CAPEs up to 1K J/kg. The discrete supercells ahead of the squall line would be capable of producing wet microbursts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes between 7 PM and 10 PM in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. The threat will then shift to more damaging winds and maybe a few QLCS tornadoes as the squall line moves into southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa between 10 PM and 11 PM. This line will then gradually weaken as the instability wanes. The severe weather threat will likely wane by 1 AM Monday. Monday night A cold front will move east through the area. There will be 1-2K J/kg CAPES ahead of this front. With much of the deep (0-6 km) shear located post frontal, not anticipating any supercells. As a result, if there is severe weather, it would be located along the cold front as a squall line. The primary threat would be damaging winds with secondary threats as hail and QLCS tornadoes. Timing looks to be rather similar tonight with the squall line moving into northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota between 9 PM and 10 PM. It will exit the area between 2 AM and 4 AM. By this time, the winds will likely be sub-severe. Friday into Saturday A shortwave trough will move east through the area. This will result in another round of showers and isolated storms. With CAPES less than 250 J/kg and 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear less than 25 knots, not anticipating any organized severe weather at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Line of decaying storms seen shifting east through local forecast area, over Mississippi River Valley at 18.06Z TAF issuance. Strong winds along and behind this line will be main impact besides scattered embedded thunder. Strong winds persist behind this line for the next couple of hours. MVFR-IFR ceilings with MVFR visibilities possible with ongoing early morning rain. VFR expected through the late morning into the early afternoon before thunder chances increase from southwest to northeast again Monday evening and night. Storms quickly progress from southwest to northeast with damaging winds as main severe hazard. Storms exit the area with frontal passage overnight into Tuesday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 106 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 One to two inch totals are still forecast across the area, with areas further west more favored for the 2 inch totals. This will likely not cause river flooding, only within bank rises. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...JAR HYDROLOGY...Baumgardt  829 FXUS64 KLZK 180609 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 109 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 -Above normal temperatures and high humidity levels the next few days. -Some potential for severe thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday. -Daily rain chances will be in the forecast through the end of the period. -Some locally heavy rainfall is possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Summer-like conditions are in place across the state early this morning as 06z observations include temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s F and Td values in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. This humid airmass will linger for the next couple of days as sfc riding remains to the east of the area and H500 longwave troughing persists across the western US. This will provide steady SW flow throughout much of the atmospheric column. For today, a small piece of energy will traverse the state aloft and could provide for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout the day. Overall coverage is expected to remain limited, but some early morning CAMs show a flourish of activity across the northern half of the state between 12-18z. Otherwise, not much concern for widespread hazardous weather today. That won't be the case to the northwest of the state where widespread strong to severe storms may develop later today. This activity would be focused along a nearly stationary cold front situated from the OK/TX panhandles northeastward to the Great Lakes. As storms merge overnight they will begin to move southeast toward the state as the cold front makes similar progress. This activity is expected to move into Arkansas during the early morning hours Tuesday in a weakened state. Through the afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday there could be some reinvigeration of this activity. The overall severe threat will be determined by how widespread the early morning activity lasts and how far it progresses throughout the day. While instability and mid-level lapse rates look favorable for a severe threat Tuesday afternoon, shear values remain limited during this timeframe. Will begin to see the above normal temperatures relax a bit by Wednesday across the state as the sfc cold front moves southeast. The flow aloft will remain out of the SW and disturbances will continue to move along it. This will provide nearly daily chances for precip across parts of the state. This pattern looks to be locked in through at least the upcoming weekend. There will be some localized concern for heavy rainfall at times across the state the next few days as PW values are expected to be in the 1.5-2.0 inch range. But, given the recent short and long term rainfall deficits in place across the area, FFG values remain substantial. This will limit any major flash flood concerns for the time being. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR conditions are present across the area to start the period. All terminals are expected to drop below MVFR CIGs before sunrise and remain there through most of the period. Recent CAM runs have been in agreement of scattered t'storms developing in NW AR Monday afternoon. Coverage remain uncertain to become full group at this time, but will continue to monitor development trends. CIGs likely to improve to VFR late afternoon to early evening Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 73 86 65 / 40 20 60 80 Camden AR 89 72 90 67 / 10 20 60 60 Harrison AR 85 71 83 60 / 30 10 80 90 Hot Springs AR 87 73 85 66 / 10 40 70 70 Little Rock AR 88 71 87 66 / 20 30 60 80 Monticello AR 88 73 89 68 / 10 30 5070 Mount Ida AR 86 74 83 67 / 20 40 70 70 Mountain Home AR 85 71 83 61 / 40 10 90 90 Newport AR 89 72 89 66 / 30 20 60 80 Pine Bluff AR 89 73 89 68 / 20 20 50 60 Russellville AR 87 72 84 66 / 40 30 90 80 Searcy AR 87 70 87 64 / 30 20 60 70 Stuttgart AR 89 73 89 68 / 10 20 60 70 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...67 AVIATION...78  161 FXUS64 KJAN 180611 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 111 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 This evening's scattered thunderstorms have just about all but died off. The rest of the night should remain dry across the forecast area. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Through the work week (Monday through Friday)... Cold core low, developing over the Four Corners, will eject into the northern Plains to Great Lakes and into Canada and Hudson Bay region. Persistent seasonable warmth (4F to 8F above and highs in 86F to 91F) and moisture (forecasts of 1.5 to 2 inches and GOES East satellite derived PWs generally similar) will be the norm. Summertime pattern is on tap, with scattered rain and storm currently developing and later coverage (20 to 50 percent) and increased heat and humidity. With some steep lapse rates (vertical totals near 27C to 29C), some strong to isolated severe cannot be ruled out into early to mid week (as early as Monday but most likely Tuesday into Wednesday). There is an ongoing Marginal outlook for northwest to northern areas in the Hwy 82 corridor Tuesday afternoon to evening. There is support of diurnal microburst potential and pulse severe but deep flow/bulk shear will be light and variable and storm organization mostly driven by storms that are favorably oriented low level bulk shear. As a stronger wave swings into the Great Lakes and surface low ejects into eastern Canada (995mb to 1000mb), front will shift south southeast towards the Gulf states. A southern stream shortwave will enhance upper diffluence, increasing ascent and moisture advection. This will drive higher coverage of rain and storms (45 to 90 percent Wednesday and 55 to 75 percent on Thursday).High temperatures will be seasonable, with lows less seasonable, falling from 8F to 12F above (upper 60s to low 70s west) to 4F to 8F above (mid to upper 60s). With less seasonable temperatures, humidity and lapse rates, some stronger storms are likely and marginally severe storms remain possible. Mid to deep layer bulk shear will remain sufficient (around 30kts), with low level shear around 15-25kts. This will keep potential marginally severe concerns through the remainder of the work week (Wednesday through Friday). Rain totals for the week will be around a couple of inches (1 to 3 inches), which will help lessen some long term drought concerns. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR cigs were already being observed at HEZ at 0530Z. MVFR/IFR cigs wl develop cntrl and south by 10Z while the northern TAF sites remain in VFR. Conditions wl improve by 15Z and a gusty se-s wind 18-20kts wl develop areawide by 16Z. These gusts will subside by 23Z. There is a low chance of isolated SHRA/TSRA in vcty of HEZ after 19Z and until 23Z. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 72 88 70 85 / 10 50 50 70 Meridian 69 89 68 88 / 10 10 20 40 Vicksburg 73 89 70 84 / 20 40 60 80 Hattiesburg 71 89 69 89 / 0 10 10 50 Natchez 73 89 71 85 / 10 50 50 80 Greenville 73 90 70 82 / 20 50 70 90 Greenwood 73 90 70 84 / 20 30 50 90 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/DC/22  275 FXUS64 KLCH 180613 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 113 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and warm conditions will prevail again today with a few showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. - A prolonged period of unsettled weather will develop beginning Tuesday afternoon and continue through the end of the week with high precipitation chances each day. - Marginal Risk (lvl 1 of 5) for severe weather covering northwest portions of the area Tuesday afternoon. Wind and hail will be the greatest hazards. - Several inches of rain are expected across the region Tuesday through next Sunday with a Marginal Risk (lvl 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall highlighting all areas each day Tue-Thu with more likely beyond. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A weak upper perturbation / nocturnal jet moving across northeast Texas made easy work of the moisture flux from today. A north- south axis of showers currently exists just west of the Sabine. This area will slowly move east thru sunrise and may squeeze a few showers down to the AEX metro, but largely this shouldn't impact our forecast region. Morning hours should be quiet, albeit perhaps a bit dreary. Winds increase with sunrise as the pressure gradient between boundary present in the Plains and weakening but present high over the Carolinas. Should be a similar day as far as breeziness goes, but still not anticipating a prolonged period of definite strong sustained winds. Thus, a wind advisory is not anticipated at this time. Moisture will continue filtering in, filling out the column, through the morning. 00Z RAOB reported 1.61 inches PWAT, however as seen by mesoanalysis, PWAT values 1.80 to 2.00 inches (greater than 90th percentile) have already surged up the Texas coast, helping to generate the area of active showers seen tonight. This anomalously moist airmass will remain in place overtop our region, waiting in place for a forcing mechanism to generate some convection. An area of diurnal/seabreeze showers/storms looks to develop in south central LA before moving north. The typical quick downpour, windy summer storm should result. The first round of active convection should then arrive by late Tuesday in the form of a decaying QLCS feature. The act of this boundary moving southeast will deflect remaining high pressure influence from the east, leaving the door open for active weather. A series of disturbances will move over the northwest Gulf from Wednesday onward bringing about daily chances for widespread rainfall. From Tuesday nigh to the early weekend, it's reasonable to expect 2 to 4 inches area-wide with higher local totals. The flash flooding threat will increase each day with rounds of rainfall onto semi-wet antecedent conditions, so keep your flash flood response plans in the back of your mind as we near the end of the week. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Ceilings should largely prevail in the MVFR range overnight with elevated south-southeast winds continuing the push of moisture inland. An area of showers has developed south to north west of the Sabine beneath an upper level weakness. Some of these showers may squeak into central Louisiana through the early morning hours but majority of the region will remain dry. Pressure gradient will remain tight with elevated winds increasing once again after sunrise. As high pressure continues backing off, another round of isolated to scattered showers could be possible during the daytime hours. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tightened pressure gradient willremain in place through at least Tuesday morning. A boundary of disturbed weather is expected to near the region on Tuesday causing all remaining high pressure influence to back eastward. This decrease in pressure will loosen the gradient allowing winds and then seas to fall back on Tuesday, remaining low through the remainder of the week. Rain chances increase Tuesday night and will remain elevated through the rest of the forecast as a series of disturbances cross the region. Winds will prevail somewhat low and onshore, however volatile winds and seas could be possible local to storms each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tightened pressure gradient will remain in place through at least Tuesday morning. A boundary of disturbed weather is expected to near the region on Tuesday causing all remaining high pressure influence to back eastward. This decrease in pressure will loosen the gradient allowing winds to diminish before the arrival of a very wet and disturbed weather pattern from late Tuesday to the end of the week. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ450-452-470- 472. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11 AVIATION...11  257 FXUS65 KBOU 180613 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1213 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storm chance waning, and mostly confined to far southeastern portions of the forecast area into early evening. - Rain and mountain/foothill snow increases tonight through Monday with much colder temperatures arriving. - Accumulating snow for the mountains, and >70% chance of accumulation in the foothills. Only a few wet snowflakes possibly mixed in for the I-25 Corridor. - One last spring freeze possible on some of the plains Monday night. - Delay in the warming and drying trend for the week ahead, but still warmer and drier by Friday - next weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 1211 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 An upper level trough over the Great Basin will move across the area on Mon with favorable mid level ascent thru the aftn hours. At the sfc, upslope flow will be in place which will combine with the upper level trough to produce widespread precip across the area. Snow will occur in the mtns and higher foothills with several inches of accumulation. Have upgraded areas north of I-70 in the mtns to a warning as east facing slopes could see from 12 to 18 inches in some areas. Elsewhere will keep amounts in the advisory range. In the foothills, some of the higher areas may see 4 to 8 inches above 8000 ft with lessor amounts below 8000 ft. By Mon night precip should gradually decrease over the area during the evening hours. Overnight lows late Mon night into early Tue morning may drop down to freezing or slighty below across portions of the plains. For Tue, a disturbance will move across the area late in the aftn thru Tue night. As this feature moves across, there will be another round of precip over the higher terrain and across portions of the plains. Highs on Tue will remain cool as readings stay in the 50's across the plains. Looking ahead to Wed, an unsettled pattern will continue as decent lapse rates will combine with lingering moisture to produce a good chc of showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain and portions of the plains. Most of the activity will occur in the late aftn and early evening hours. Highs will remain blo normal as readings only reach the upper 50's to mid 60's across the plains. By Thu into Fri, latest data shows another upper level trough moving southeast towards the area. Not sure about the timing of this system, however, as it moves across should see another good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures both days will be in the mid 60's to lower 70's across the plains. For next weekend, will see a return to a drier and warmer pattern based on latest data. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Isolated to scattered showers will hang around the terminals for much of the overnight period. KBJC will have the highest chance of seeing additional showers overnight, but KAPA and KDEN could also see periodic light rain. Shower coverage will start to increase in the early morning, with widespread showers and storms likely impacting all TAF sites by 16Z to 17Z. Rain is then expected to continue for multiple hours before eventually moving off to the east around 21Z to 23Z. Isolated to scattered showers will still linger around the area for a few more hours before rain chances come to an end in the late evening. Ceilings are currently MVFR to IFR across the area, with CIGs continuing to drop overnight. By Monday morning, all TAF sites will likely have CIGs below 1000ft, with a low to medium chance (30 to 40%) that KAPA and KBJC drop to LIFR. Low clouds will continue throughout the day Monday into Tuesday morning. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ031- 034. Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ033. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for COZ038>051. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPK AVIATION...AP  189 FXUS65 KPIH 180612 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1212 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty northerly winds diminishing later on today - Best chance of precipitation today across the southeast corner - Frost/freeze conditions through at least midweek before temperatures begin warming up && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1209 AM MDT Monday May 18 2026 Strong low pressure will continue slowly churn to our south and east today. This will keep a persistent area of light rain and snow, with a few thunderstorms possible across the southeast corner. We could see snow falling at lowest elevations but anything that falls and accumulates should melt later in the day. Across the the higher elevations, a couple of inches are possible. We should also see a few showers across the central mountains south across the Magic Valley and Albion Mountains during the afternoon and evening hours. The bigger overall issue is strong northerly winds, which should be peaking early this morning, but lingering through the day. We do expect some spots to exceed the low end for WIND ADVISORY, but those pocket should be small enough to keep us from issuing something. That said, we are going to easily exceed the northeast wind threshold for American Falls Reservoir, therefore we will keep the LAKE WIND ADVISORY in place for today. The other issue is colder temperatures. We do have a FREEZE WARNING and FROST ADVISORY out for the Snake Plain and Magic Valley this morning. At the moment, the wind is helping keep temperatures pretty warm. However, we are seeing colder air slipping across the Montana border. That, in conjunction with the usual drop in temperatures overnight, we see no need to end the headlines in place for this morning. For tonight, with less wind, we are likely in line for another round of Frost/Freeze headlines. We will also have less cloud cover around. Highs today barely top out above 60 in a few spots. We should see a few showers and potentially isolated storms closer to the Montana border Tuesday afternoon and evening. At the moment, this may be a simple round of virga/sprinkles, but certainly worth mentioning in the forecast. Another wave drops south and east for a better chance of precipitation and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. We may see a few showers and storms daily heading into the weekend especially closer to the Montana border. Temperatures do eventually starting warming up, heading actually toward AVERAGE through midweek and ABOVE AVERAGE later in the week, as we switch from north/northwest flow to southwest flow. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1018 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected at most sites through the period. DIJ is the one exception where CIGs/VIS have been borderline MVFR/VFR so far. Borderline MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to continue for DIJ. Conditions are forecast to remain dry at BYI, PIH, and IDA with VCSH remaining in the forecast for SUN and DIJ. Any showers at DIJ are expected to turn to snow after around 5z, which would bring a better chance of MVFR CIGS/VIS. Northerly winds behind the cold front will also increase tonight with gusts around 20-25 kts at DIJ, SUN, and BYI and closer to 35 kts at PIH and IDA. Winds will drop off by around 10kts after around 9 to 12z before ramping back again by late morning/early afternoon. Winds look to start dropping off gradually overall by around 20 to 21z for all TAF sites. Expect mostly clear skies by early to mid afternoon for all TAF sites. Wind drop off below 10 mph by early evening tomorrow evening. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Monday for IDZ051-052. Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Monday for IDZ053>055. Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Keyes AVIATION...TW  335 FXUS63 KGRR 180615 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 215 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe threat with possible tornadoes remains through mid evening - Periodic showers/storms possibly strong to severe through Tuesday - Much quieter and seasonable mid-late week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 - Severe threat with possible tornadoes remains through mid evening All of the ingredients remain in place for a possible severe event late this afternoon and evening for our area north of I-96. As mentioned earlier, we are concerned with an MCV over Wisconsin that looks to interact with a warm front that is draped over the heart of the forecast area. As of 17z/1 pm EDT, the front extended from near the Muskegon/Oceana county border, to Newaygo and Mecosta counties, to just south of Alma. The MCV over Wisconsin is already producing severe weather with Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warning there. Extrapolating this line of storms has it hitting Oceana and Mason Counties near Little and Big Sable Points around 4 pm. This trajectory looks very favorable for interacting with the front. The MCV will help to bump the Effective Deep Layer Shear values up to around 50 knots, right near the front where plenty of low level shear is present. The threat looks to be through about 00-01z/8-9 PM EDT before the MCV moves out. This is likely to give the area a lull in the shower/storm activity for much of tonight. - Periodic showers/storms possibly strong to severe through Tuesday The sequence of events is a bit uncertain then for Monday through Tuesday as multiple rounds of storms will be associated with the main sfc front and waves along it. What we do know is that we should be in the warm sector from Monday through at least early Tuesday. We could see the leftovers of a line of storms come in from our WSW very late tonight and Monday. This then would potentially affect additional development of convection, or subdue it with other convection that would try to form. We are thinking that the main threats Monday would be wind and hail. We do not have good low level shear present on Monday to support any tornado threat. One signal we do have for a better bet of convection will be late Monday night into Tuesday. This would the development of convection to our WSW, and try to bring it in here Tuesday morning. Then, depending on that convection, we will have the potential for frontal convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. The evolution of that will depend on how much early morning convection would affect the area, and limit destabilization ahead of the front. The air mass ahead of the front could be favorable for severe with sufficient destabilization, and 40-50 knots of deep layer shear. Low level shear is also favorable with a 45 knot low level jet core over the area. - Much quieter and seasonable mid-late week All of the rain should be out of the area by midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. High pressure will build in at the sfc. We see a couple of short waves try to clip the area, but they look like they will stay just far enough north to not affect the area. The sfc ridge will funnel dry air in from the NE through Friday. A weak short wave approaches on Saturday, but it will not have much of any moisture to work with. There could be maybe a weak shower on Saturday, but for the most part the area should stay dry. Highs will start out in the 50s on Wednesday, and warm to the 70s by Fri/Sat. with return flow starting to develop. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 214 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 There are two main aviation concerns today, the first being the chance of thunderstorms and the second being gusty south winds. As for the chance of thunderstorms, a line of weakening showers/storms is located off to the west over Wisconsin and Iowa at 06z. These showers/storms will continue to slowly move our direction and will begin to move into the area after 13z. We expect a weakening line of activity that should mainly be showers at that point. An uptick in activity or a redevelopment will occur between 16z and 18z as the activity move through Southwest Lower Michigan. A period of more substantial showers and some strong storms will be possible between 18z and 23z. After 23z, the activity should wind down and/or move off to the east. Conditions will largely be VFR outside of the short periods that the activity affects any one TAF site. As for the wind, shortly after daybreak or around 13z we expect winds to ramp up out of the SSW from 190-210. Speeds through the bulk of the day will be between 15-30 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 We are going to expand the current Small Craft Advisory further south to our border with IWX at St. Joseph. Plan views of winds indicate that the strongest and most consistent winds will remain north of Holland. However, there is enough wind on and off south of Holland to necessitate the SCA down there. Right now we have it going through Monday evening at 8 pm, but it will likely need to be extended at some point through the Tuesday frontal passage. Once the winds come down after the frontal passage on Tuesday afternoon, headlines will likely not be needed for the rest of the week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ846>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...Duke MARINE...NJJ  290 FXUS64 KMOB 180613 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 113 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 111 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Patchy fog is possible late tonight and Monday night. - Rain chances increase by mid to late next week, especially over the northwestern portion of the forecast area. - Temperatures will continue to trend warmer through early next week with increasingly humid conditions. Heat indices will climb into low to mid 90s by Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Dry weather conditions generally prevail for most areas today outside of perhaps an isolated shower or storm over the interior this afternoon, best chances near the Highway 84 corridor. Rain chances gradually increase into mid and late week as upper ridging weakens and southwest flow aloft works its way into the area along with several weak shortwaves. This should be enough to generate isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage each day starting Wednesday. Rain chances continue to look like they will be best this weekend as a weak upper trough pushes across the region. Overall for those who see storms it will be a beneficial rainfall to continue chipping away at our ongoing drought across the forecast area. We will probably see some patchy fog across portions of the area through daybreak this morning and again Tuesday morning. The better signal for fog, some locally dense, appears to be Tuesday morning. Fog will generally lift pretty quickly after daybreak. Outside of the rain chances, temperatures will be warm near or just above normal for this time of year on both highs and lows throughout the week. Highs generally fall in the 85 to 90 range, warmest Wednesday where some spots across the FL panhandle into south-central AL make it to the lower 90's. Lows warm with time from upper 50's to middle 60's this morning to middle 60's to lower 70's by mid week. The rip current risk remains Moderate today, becoming High Tuesday before dropping back to a Low to Moderate risk Wednesday into late week. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 111 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions will likely give way to IFR ceilings early Monday morning. Some patchy fog may also be possible across the area. Conditions should return to VFR with a southerly wind around 10 knots gusting to around 20 knots during the day. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through Thursday. Seas will build slightly by Monday and Tuesday then diminish Wednesday into Thursday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 86 70 87 69 / 20 0 0 0 Pensacola 83 71 84 70 / 10 0 0 0 Destin 82 71 83 70 / 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 89 65 91 67 / 20 0 10 0 Waynesboro 88 69 89 68 / 20 0 10 10 Camden 88 67 89 68 / 30 0 10 10 Crestview 89 65 91 66 / 20 0 10 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  427 FXUS63 KLMK 180616 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 216 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Today through Tuesday, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s. Some daily max temperature records could be challenged. * Showers and/or thunderstorms could arrive for some Monday evening, especially for our northwestern counties. * A line of strong to severe storms are expected to move through along a cold front on Tuesday evening. All hazards will be possible. The line will weaken as it move southeast over the region. Updated Aviation Discussion... && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 The nice but very warm weather we've been experiencing today is thanks to the upper ridge over the eastern CONUS further building over our region. Even though we will have mostly clear skies tonight, steady southerly winds and dew points around 60 will only allow temperatures tonight to fall into the upper 60s, with some places only dropping into the low 70s. For Monday, the upper ridge will continue to amplify as a robust upper-level trough digs over the central and western CONUS. A few perturbations from the deep south will move northward towards the region while an MCS from what will be this evening's severe weather event over the Plains treks eastward towards us. In addition, moisture aloft will be carried northward over our region, with PW values near or above 1.5" (~95th percentile climatologically) and dew points lifting into the mid 60s. The forcing from the perturbations should be enough for some pop up showers and thunderstorms to develop over our far northwestern counties, with a couple of stronger storms possible. The current timing of the MCS would allow it to weaken just to our north, with the mid/upper jet lifting it northward our of our area. With mostly dry and sunny conditions expected during the day, temperatures will again be in the upper 80s, with some places exceeding 90. The continued push of southerly flow Monday night will only allow temperatures to drop into the upper 60s/low 70s, which could threaten some record warm minimums. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 ===Tuesday: Strong to Severe Storms Ahead of a Cold Front=== Tuesday morning, broad ridging will remain over a warm, moist environment. This will allow temperatures to remain above normal in the upper 80s and brushing 90 in some spots. A shortwave moving out of Texas may move over the region, which will bring scattered showers and storms over the region mid morning and into the afternoon. With ample mixing and warming, we will see steep lapse rates in the afternoon and increased uninhibited CAPE. Looking to see about 2000J/kg of SBCAPE. About 25-30kts of shear will allow a few storms a become more organized or congeal, but not expecting impressive storm structures. Could see some gusty winds, small- medium sized hail, and lightning. Additionally, PWATs of 1.7-1.9 inches will bring periods of heavy rain. As a result, brief ponding will be possible. With this daytime convective activity, it may dampen the severe threat in the evening. Though, the environment may recover quickly, given the very warm and moisture airmass. The cold front will approach from the northwest in the evening and a line of showers and storms will accompany it. Depending on timing, will determine if we are still surface based. Around 0Z timing, we will see better environment for all hazards. A 30kt LLJ will be moving northeast over the region and provide increased low-level shear. We will also still see higher SBCAPE. The later the line arrives, the environment will weaken. Additionally, as the line of storms pushes east, will likely begin to outrun the best forcing, and it will dissipate. Greatest severe threat will be over the northwestern 2/3rds of the area. ===Return to Near Normal Temperatures=== The cold front will exit the region by Wednesday morning, bringing a return to near normal temperatures. The cold front will stall over the Tennessee Valley. A messy southwesterly flow pattern will bring daily chances for showers and storms through the weekend. No one day will be a washout, but scattered chances are to be expected. Late week and into the weekend, we will see temperatures begin to increase to above normal values. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 215 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected to remain through the period at most sites, but HNB and possibly SDF could see a line of late afternoon/evening convection arrive from the northwest before dissipating. This could bring heavy showers and low VFR ceilings for a limited time. All area TAF sites can expect southerly winds to become gusty, gusting to 20-25 knots for most of the day before easing tonight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BEN LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...KDW  504 FXUS62 KILM 180619 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 219 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 06Z TAF discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Inland portions of the eastern Carolinas should see their longest heat wave of the year so far with 90 degree heat expected to continue through Thursday. 2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front stalls near the Carolinas. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Inland portions of the eastern Carolinas should see their longest heat wave of the year so far with 90 degree heat expected to continue through Thursday. A 590 dam upper ridge centered near the North Carolina coast is responsible for the sustained period of hot inland temperatures which should last through Thursday. Sinking air below the upper ridge should create a deep warm, dry layer extending down through 700 and 850 mb. Models have maintained their 850 mb temp forecasts of +17C to 18C (at or above the 90th percentile climatological values for this time of year) which increases confidence in our forecast of 90+ degree heat continuing through Thursday for locations more than 25 miles inland. Our forecast is for an additional four days (Monday through Thursday) of 90+ degree heat inland. Assuming that Florence and Lumberton highs touch 90 degrees this afternoon, this five day streak would eclipse this year's earlier streak of four days of 90 degree temps recorded from April 15-18 in both Florence and Lumberton. Coastal portions of the Carolinas should remain significantly cooler than inland due to sustained south winds dragging air across nearshore water still near 70 degrees. The upper ridge will become more narrow with time as an upper low strengthens across the northern Bahamas Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature looks a lot like an early season TUTT low, but any enhanced convection or other sensible weather impacts should remain far to our south. The arrival of a surface cold front Thursday afternoon should end this heat wave with temperatures returning toward normal for the coming weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front stalls near the Carolinas. Dry weather will come to an end as early as Thursday morning. There's reasonable uncertainty on placement of highest POPs day to day as we deal with a stalled front in or near the area and the daily sea breeze. The front may lift north of the area into the weekend but the warm, humid air mass will continue to support rain chances through the end of the period. Little change in the difference between the NBM and other guidance with forecast POPs reflecting widespread showers/storms that I think will be more scattered near the boundaries. Calling rainfall totals this far out is tough but it does look like there's a signal for higher totals, mainly for the coastal areas, Friday into Saturday with the possibility of a passing low shoving more moisture onshore. Low confidence on the placement of this feature at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low confidence forecast with the 06Z TAFs. Conflicting signals with the typical fog indicators. The presence of tidal creeks/swamps in the vicinity of some of the sites further complicates things. Winds at the top of the boundary layer are close to 10kt, suggesting if fog starts to develop a transition to low stratus is favored. The problem there is the moisture is very shallow, even near the coast. It is deeper than last night, when CRE had some brief IFR fog (more likely ground fog from the creek). Given the slight increase in low level moisture and the events of last night, thick ground fog/creek fog/swamp fog is possible at both CRE/ILM. Expect it will be transient in nature, thus carried a tempo. Slightly less moisture along with the enhanced boundary layer winds help keep any fog at FLO/MYR more of the MVFR variety while LBT still has a somewhat dry boundary layer and even less fog potential. VFR will return at all sites 12-13Z. Sea breeze will again develop and push inland around midday with gusts 15-20 kt at the coast arriving at inland terminals mid to late afternoon. Extended Forecast...VFR through Wednesday though morning fog potential increases each day. An approaching front could bring restrictions in scattered showers and storms Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...South to southeast flow across the waters continues today and tonight with Bermuda High in place. Sea breeze development by midday will enhance winds near shore with potential for gusts 15-20 kt within a few miles of land. Otherwise winds will be around 10 kt with minimal gusts. Combination of a weak southeast swell and weak southerly wind wave will keep seas 2-3 ft. Tuesday through Saturday...Bermuda high pressure remains in control through Thursday with onshore flow enhanced in the afternoons by the daily sea breeze. A could front will approach Thursday night into Friday but doesn't look to clear the coastal waters with SE winds prevailing. Showers and storms are possible Thursday onwards. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...TRA/LEW DISCUSSION...TRA/LEW AVIATION...III MARINE...III/LEW  468 FXUS63 KPAH 180618 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 118 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy today with thunderstorms becoming a factor by the afternoon (50-70% chance). Some risk (level 1 to 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms exists with wind and hail the main threat. - High rain chances (80-100%) from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Level 2 of 5 severe weather risk but the deep layer shear may be too weak. Locally heavy rain possible but storm organization may be too lacking for optimal rainfall rates. - Drier conditions briefly behind a cold front but rain and thunderstorms (and humidity) come back by Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Things continue to move roughly in line with expectations in the near term, wetter in the medium/long-range. For today watching a shortwave over south central Texas that is progged to be overhead by 20-21z and looks to interact with our increasingly soupy airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s. Convection allowing models suggest the MCS over MO/KS may make it (in some form) into the region by about that time as well. The upper support looks a little lacking but may be sufficient to keep something going the trend is at least for it to generate some sort of differential heating boundary that may be a foci for convective initiation in the heat of the day. MLCAPEs are around 2000-2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is 35-40 kt with the approaching wave, low shear is not too worrisome although a mesoscale boundary from the MCS could complicate the tornado factor a little. That risk appears highest along the I-64 corridor roughly, where it looks like most of the rest of the CWA could see isolated to scattered cells/complexes. These do appear they'd have the ingredients for wind/hail through the afternoon. Breezy conditions again today and did hoist another targeted Lake Wind Advisory. Tuesday a surface cold front still works close to the area as we begin to feel the lifting influence of the right rear exit region of a northern Plains/Great Lakes jet max. PWATs are high, layer warm-air advection is moderate, jet level ascent/height falls are supportive and you'll have the front in the area as well. We should end up with scattered to numerous showers and storms with a window for locally heavy rain - although there still really aren't any tools that go too nuts. HREF PMMs max out at 1.5 inches or so and it would take quite a bit more than that to flood given our antecedent conditions. Severe weather wise the instability will be there, the low shear is ok but the deep layer shear really backs off through the day and we may not quite have enough oomph there to help significantly organize convection. This may be part of why the CAM based precip guidance is so weak, things just will be too sloppy to produce optimal rainfall rates. The medium and long range trend is definitely for more persistent troughiness over the central plains and Rocky Mountains. Late Wednesday into Thursday may be a little drier/less humid but by Friday the warm front sweeps back to the north putting us firmly back into the soup. Shear/instabilityFriday may line up to produce a little severe weather potential with ECMWF/GFS agreement on shear and instability. After that fairly large differences in deterministic and ensemble positioning and shape of the cut off/closed lows/shortwave troughs that spit out of this system get pretty jumbled. On balance however generally humid and unsettled weather appears a reasonable bet. Hopefully with enough rain to ameliorate our drought conditions at least a little. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 515 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 With high pressure affixed to the east and low pressure approaching from the west this package, the terminals remain within a tight gradient for sustained southerlies, including diurnal gustiness again tmrw. Some moistening of the profile takes place over the back half of the package, as the low and its associated front nears closer; this will lead to high end MVFR to low end VFR bases (SCT-BKN) developing, including low probs for -TSRA, esp going into the planning phase/heating hours of the afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for ILZ075-081-085. MO...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ100. IN...None. KY...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for KYZ007>009-011-012. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...  476 FXUS64 KFWD 180619 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 119 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again today, but most areas will stay dry. - More widespread showers and storms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves into and stalls across the region. Heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms are possible both days. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue the rest of the week into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible but the severe weather threat appears low. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Latest radar imagery shows the showers and storms that affected North and Central Texas on Sunday evening have moved out of our area into East Texas, with dry conditions now in place. In the wake of this activity, surface obs and area radars show the nocturnal LLJ has kicked into gear early this morning with winds up to 50 knots at 3k ft per the KFWS VAD wind profile. This will lead to gusty south winds up to 40 mph at times throughout the day today and even into tonight. The LLJ is also bringing a surge of low clouds rapidly northward which are expected to blanket most of the area until breaking up by midday, allowing for another warm, humid afternoon with highs in the 80s and 90s. Precip chances for today look quite low as main synoptic features and forcing stay well to our north. Even so, moisture remains plentiful with a PWAT of 1.87 inches on the 00Z FWD sounding, so a few isolated showers or even a thunderstorm could potentially pop up. Much higher rain chances, however, will wait until tomorrow as a cold front moves in from the north. Latest models/CAMs show the front arriving into Montague County in the 12-15Z timeframe Tuesday morning, then reaching the Metroplex around 18-20Z before stalling across Central Texas by 00Z. Majority of guidance shows widespread showers and storms along the front, some of which could be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail given the high CAPE/weak shear profiles shown on forecast soundings. This activity should diminish from north to south with time Tuesday evening/night. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Overall pattern with southwesterly flow aloft, frequent embedded shortwaves moving overhead, and stalled/gradually washing out stationary front will remain in place the rest of the week into the weekend. This should lead to fairly high daily rain chances each day, especially across Central Texas. Forecast soundings for the rest of the week show much lower CAPE and continued weak shear, so the severe threat is expected to be low, with the main focus shifting to heavy rain and localized flooding potential. Latest model QPF totals along with WPC show rainfall amounts over the next 7 days ranging from 1 inch in northwest Texas to as much as 5 inches in our southeast counties. Should these rainfall totals pan out, they would put a big dent in the drought conditions across our eastern and southeast counties. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Satellite imagery this morning shows MVFR cigs rapidly spreading northward into D10, with all airports anticipated to have MVFR conditions by 07Z and continuing through 16Z. VFR conditions look to return after 16Z with gusty south winds into the 30-35 knot range this afternoon. Winds will subside somewhat tonight but remain 15-25 knots, with another round of MVFR cigs likely Tuesday morning. No precipitation is anticipated at airports this TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 74 87 68 / 10 10 70 70 Waco 88 75 87 69 / 10 10 60 60 Paris 87 72 83 66 / 20 20 80 70 Denton 88 74 85 65 / 10 10 80 70 McKinney 89 73 85 66 / 10 10 70 70 Dallas 90 75 88 68 / 10 10 70 70 Terrell 89 73 87 67 / 10 10 60 70 Corsicana 90 76 89 71 / 10 20 60 60 Temple 89 76 88 70 / 10 20 60 60 Mineral Wells 88 72 86 64 / 10 10 80 70 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger  516 FXUS64 KMRX 180619 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 219 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Very warm temperatures are expected early this week with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal. - Increasing chances for showers and storms return Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day from Thursday through the weekend especially across the higher elevations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Main weather feature for Monday and Tuesday will remain an upper ridge over the southeast United States into the southern Appalachians. Main impact will be mostly dry and unseasonably very warm temperatures. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. For Wednesday, ensemble cluster analysis shows a short-wave trough moving across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio valley. This wave will begin to weaken the upper ridge over the region and allow a frontal boundary to approach the area. Surface ridging will also weaken across the southeast United States allowing for slightly better moisture return. Lower heights and better PWs will allow for increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms especially over the Plateau counties. Instability with remain marginal with CAPES of 1000-1500, mid-level lapse rates of 6 degrees or less with little to no shear. At this time severe storms are not anticipated. For Thursday, frontal boundary remains near the region with PWs of 1.5-1.7 inches so moisture returns over the area. Instability and shear remain limited with little to no severe threat, but fairly good coverage of showers and storms with much needed rainfall. QPF for Wednesday through Thursday will range from 0.10 to 0.50 inch. For Friday, frontal boundary lifts north as an upper trough/jet moves northeast into the mid-west and Ohio valley producing pressure falls there. The increase in southerly boundary jet will pull frontal boundary north. Plenty of moisture and instability remains so scattered showers and thunderstorms developing into the afternoon especially across the terrain features. For Saturday and Sunday, the southern Appalachians will remain with plenty of moisture and afternoon instability with upper ridge building back into the region. More typical warm and muggy conditions are expected. Ensemble QPF and WPC depicts from 1 to 1.5 inches across much of the area from Wednesday through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A brief period of LLWS to start this TAF period as strong winds aloft are occurring. Winds are expected to weaken before daybreak. VFR and dry weather expected today, a few southwesterly wind gusts to 15 knots Knoxville and south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 66 89 66 / 20 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 66 90 67 / 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 64 88 64 / 10 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 61 88 62 / 20 0 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...Wellington  773 FXUS65 KBOU 180623 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1223 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and mountain/foothill snow increases overnight through Monday with much colder temperatures arriving. - Accumulating snow for the mountains, and >70% chance of accumulation in the foothills. Only a few wet snowflakes possibly mixed in for the I-25 Corridor. - One last spring freeze possible on some of the plains Monday night. - Delay in the warming and drying trend for the week ahead, but still warmer and drier by Friday - next weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 1222 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 An upper level trough over the Great Basin will move across the area on Mon with favorable mid level ascent thru the aftn hours. At the sfc, upslope flow will be in place which will combine with the upper level trough to produce widespread precip across the area. Snow will occur in the mtns and higher foothills with several inches of accumulation. Have upgraded areas north of I-70 in the mtns to a warning as east facing slopes could see from 12 to 18 inches in some areas. Elsewhere will keep amounts in the advisory range. In the foothills, some of the higher areas may see 4 to 8 inches above 8000 ft with lessor amounts below 8000 ft. By Mon night precip should gradually decrease over the area during the evening hours. Overnight lows late Mon night into early Tue morning may drop down to freezing or slighty below across portions of the plains. For Tue, a disturbance will move across the area late in the aftn thru Tue night. As this feature moves across, there will be another round of precip over the higher terrain and across portions of the plains. Highs on Tue will remain cool as readings stay in the 50's across the plains. Looking ahead to Wed, an unsettled pattern will continue as decent lapse rates will combine with lingering moisture to produce a good chc of showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain and portions of the plains. Most of the activity will occur in the late aftn and early evening hours. Highs will remain blo normal as readings only reach the upper 50's to mid 60's across the plains. By Thu into Fri, latest data shows another upper level trough moving southeast towards the area. Not sure about the timing of this system, however, as it moves across should see another good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures both days will be in the mid 60's to lower 70's across the plains. For next weekend, will see a return to a drier and warmer pattern based on latest data. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Isolated to scattered showers will hang around the terminals for much of the overnight period. KBJC will have the highest chance of seeing additional showers overnight, but KAPA and KDEN could also see periodic light rain. Shower coverage will start to increase in the early morning, with widespread showers and storms likely impacting all TAF sites by 16Z to 17Z. Rain is then expected to continue for multiple hours before eventually moving off to the east around 21Z to 23Z. Isolated to scattered showers will still linger around the area for a few more hours before rain chances come to an end in the late evening. Ceilings are currently MVFR to IFR across the area, with CIGs continuing to drop overnight. By Monday morning, all TAF sites will likely have CIGs below 1000ft, with a low to medium chance (30 to 40%) that KAPA and KBJC drop to LIFR. Low clouds will continue throughout the day Monday into Tuesday morning. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ031- 034. Winter Storm Warning until9 PM MDT this evening for COZ033. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for COZ038>051. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPK AVIATION...AP  014 FXUS64 KEWX 180626 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 126 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance for a few showers and storms today. - Active weather pattern from mid-week through the upcoming Memorial Holiday weekend. Heavy rain at times could lead to localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Today will be another warm and muggy day under mostly cloudy to perhaps partly cloudy skies as moisture remains strewn across the area. Highs should generally top out in the low 90s north and upper 90s south. We should see more peaks of sun than we did on Sunday which in turn will give us heat indices or "feels like" temps close to 100 for many areas with heat indices above 105 possible across the Winter Garden and Rio Grande Plains. We also should have a stronger cap in place today but it's possible we could see a storm try to break it mainly in the late afternoon/evening, if it does we could see a burst of heavy rainfall along with the potential for small hail and gusty winds. If any activity does form it should wane significantly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Tuesday should be another warm and very muggy day as we remain entrenched underneath this southwest flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface. A cold front located to our north will be on its way southward while a dryline located over northern Mexico and West TX will also be advancing eastward throughout the day. Both of these features should be the next focus for our next round of convection and heavy rainfall potential. This would likely commence late Tuesday afternoon and continue through the evening, more on that below. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A big pattern change is forecasted for the long term as we remain under southwest flow aloft which usually allows for disturbances to impact our area and take advantage of the rich moisture and unstable air in place. As such, it seems likely that multiple disturbances could impact our area as a dryline will be situated just off to our west across west TX and will have advanced eastward through the day Tuesday before beginning its daily retreat back westward. Similarly, the previous mentioned cold front will be advancing southward and as it does so numerous Hi-res models and ensembles suggest that convection would blossom along and ahead of this front by Tuesday evening. Most models highlight areas to our north across central TX where discrete supercells would initially be possible before quickly congealing into a line and working its way southeastward towards our area. What's interesting to note is just how consistent all of these models continue to be at targeting this scenario. As this convection moves closer we could see a secondary line of storms form out west from the aforementioned dryline convection if it forms over northern Mexico. Depending on how robust this activity becomes will determine how far eastward it advances. SPC currently has most of the area in a level 1 or 2 of 5 risk for severe weather for this time period. With the continued moisture remaining across the area any convection that does form will be capable of very heavy rainfall. Eventually this front becomes stationary towards the middle of the week and washes out somewhere across our area. This now stationary front will be the continued focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the period as we remain entrenched in a very moist airmass with continued southwest flow aloft. The main forecast challenge in the coming days will be identifying which features will provide the strongest focus for storms each day. The pattern transitions from a dryline/shortwave-driven severe weather pattern late Tuesday to a frontal and eventually a surface boundary-driven heavy rain and storm regime later in the week. Global models continue to hint at this pattern continuing into and even beyond next weekend as disturbances aloft continue to ride over our area and ignite the potential for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. While most of the rain will be beneficial for many areas, there are some beginning signs that we could see heavier rounds that may lead to localized flooding concerns. However due to the difficult timing and placement of these additional rounds and the numerous surface and outflow boundaries from previous convection it's still too hard to decipher which areas may see heavier amounts and when. Bottom line is an active and wet pattern looks likely for the entire area starting early next week. Continue to check back as details continue to get clearer over the coming days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR ceilings have developed over the I-35 Corridor and should reach DRT within a few hours. These ceilings will last until around noon when all airports will rebound to VFR. Winds will continue to be strong and gusty tonight and through the day. MVFR ceilings will return late tonight. There is a less than 20% chance for showers or thunderstorms this afternoon in the Austin and San Antonio areas. Any convection could briefly reduce the ceiling or visibility to MVFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 92 78 91 72 / 10 20 50 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 79 91 73 / 10 20 50 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 78 91 72 / 10 20 40 60 Burnet Muni Airport 88 75 87 70 / 10 10 50 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 98 78 95 72 / 10 10 30 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 77 90 71 / 10 20 60 70 Hondo Muni Airport 92 78 91 72 / 10 20 40 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 78 92 73 / 10 20 40 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 79 91 73 / 10 20 40 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 78 91 73 / 10 20 40 60 Stinson Muni Airport 93 79 92 73 / 10 20 30 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...05  301 FXUS61 KPBZ 180629 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 229 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As discussed below, there is now a conditional risk of strong storms/damaging wind gusts in portions of the region today. The risk for Tuesday is now focused to the northwest of Pittsburgh with a bit higher confidence. The rest of the forecast remains relatively unchanged. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heat may impact sensitive populations early this week. 2) Highly conditional and localized severe wind risk today. A bit better chance of severe storms northwest of Pittsburgh Tuesday, and perhaps in the higher terrain Wednesday ahead of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The Atlantic coast/southeast CONUS ridge provides our highest 500mb heights of the week today, around 587/588dm across the Upper Ohio Valley. The lack of cloud cover for the most part across the region today will lead to efficient heating and likely the hottest temperatures. Heights begin to back off Tuesday as an Upper Midwest shortwave induces a downstream response of kicking the ridge axis further east. This, along with the potential for some afternoon clouds/isolated convection, makes temperatures a bit more uncertain. Continued to run a bit below the overly bias-corrected NBM mean suggestions for highs both days. Went with numbers closer to the LREF means overall, but did account a bit for strong sun/relatively dry ground. This leads to max values in the upper 80s to around 90 today for the majority of the region, with lower/mid 80s in the higher terrain. Went a degree or two lower Tuesday given the factors mentioned above. Urbanized valleys could crack into the lower 90s in the worst case both days. Record high values for today could be approached in higher-end scenarios. Record maximum low temperatures may also be challenged Monday night. The NWS heat risk shows mostly a moderate risk Monday into Tuesday, whereby heat may generally impact the most sensitive populations. Make sure to stay hydrated or monitor for signs of heat illness if spending excessive time outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 2... While the ridge is expected to largely suppress convective development via mid-level capping today, there are a couple of caveats. Localized convergence along the highest terrain of northern West Virginia could overcome the capping influence and take advantage of surface-based CAPE over 1500 J/kg to create isolated storms rolling northeast off of the ridges. With potential for DCAPE of 800-1000 J/kg, a brief window may exist for strong downburst wind, but the main risk area is off to our east where storms will have longer residence time. Also, a couple of the CAMS develop some isolated convection over eastern Ohio and/or southwest Pennsylvania during the late afternoon/early evening today, likely off of outflow from convection to our west. Confidence in this is quite low given the expected ridging, and no mention of precip was made for this for now, but hi-res trends should still be monitored. IF storms can manage to overcome the ridging here as well, there could be an isolated downburst risk here as well, mainly near/north of I-80 along the northwest side of the ridge. Potential for thunderstorms increases Tuesday, especially during the late day and evening, as the ridge breaks down and as a cold front advances into the Middle Ohio Valley. The most-likely scenario at this time involves convection forming to our west and flowing into the region mostly after 21Z, with a high DCAPE environment providing a downburst wind risk. The risk appears highest generally north and west of Pittsburgh, as storm strength should be on a downward trend through the evening with the typical loss of diurnal buoyancy. Models have the cold front near or justwest of Pittsburgh by 12Z on Wednesday. This makes sufficient heating for strong convection highly questionable for the region, with any threat likely focused more towards the higher terrain, conditional on the development of adequate CAPE. A damaging wind threat would be most likely in any severe scenarios. Cooler temperatures behind the cold front will end any severe threat for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence VFR through the TAF period under the influence of high pressure east of the region. A few cu develops this afternoon with peak heating/mixing while southwest winds occasionally gust between 15-25kts (near 0% likelihood of exceeding 25kts). Any convective chances are tied to weak convergence along the WV ridgeline, with storms drift northeast, further cementing minimal terminal concerns. Area mid to high level cloud cover increases overnight into Tuesday morning in association with an eastward moving but decaying MCS. There is a non-zero chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms develop off its outflow near to after 00z around northwest PA but probability is too low for TAF mention. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet may also create brief periods of LLWS, but the lack of duration or meeting criteria (either by speed/direction or by height) led to a removal from TAFs. Outlook... Outside of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm Tuesday, VFR persists until an upper shortwave and surface front push a shower/thunderstorm axis east Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon. Initial restrictions will be tied to rainfall intensities with height falls not occurring until after frontal passage. High pressure and VFR returns by Thursday areawide before an active pattern feature multiple rain chances develops Friday into the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...Frazier  540 FXUS63 KABR 180631 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 131 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain showers mid day today through this evening. Rainfall ranges from a tenth to a quarter inch. - Colder air for the first half of the work week. Lows Tuesday morning close to freezing, but with clouds and a stiff northwest breeze temperatures should stay above 32. Much better setup for widespread frost/freeze conditions Wednesday morning with clear skies and light winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Next wave coming up from the southwest brings in moisture mid-day today through the early overnight. Still mainly light rain/showers. QPF is just a tenth or two. For Tuesday morning, we are faced with the prospect of cold advection enhanced winds, shallow cloud cover and NBM guidance proposing temperatures down to the freezing mark. Clearly not a setup for frost, but with 925mb temperatures around +1 to +2C between deterministic models, which is in alignment with the HREF mean that should put temperatures into the low/mid 30s. That said, the NSSL WRF, NAM NEST and HRRR have 925 temps down to 0C for various parts of the CWA. Latest NBM is a little warmer for lows, and now has just about everyone at 33F and warmer. No headlines/frost mention for Tuesday morning but it will get quite close to the freezing mark. Frost caddishness negated by these winds and clouds however. Much more impactful drop in temperatures will be noted for Wednesday morning. During the day Tuesday, daytime driven cumulus evident in NAM BUFKIT profiles. While this is shallow (~5kft), cant rule out light rain showers/sprinkles. Regardless, cloud cover during the day will limit heating. Loss of daytime driven convection with temperatures only into the 50s and dewpoints in the low/mid 30s and surface high pressure overhead will leave us with a good setup for frost. 25th range across the CWA is 29-32 while the upper range is 32-35. Keeping frost mention at this time but still too early for any headlines. The upper pattern features the current upper trough departure, with a second trough over the intermountain west. That puts us under a ridge for Wednesday - early Thursday. There's a negative tilt trough passage for Friday. Aside from the precipitation associated with this wave/surface low, there is a wide range in temperatures with a 10 degree spread in the 25th/75th for highs so a low confidence forecast to close out the work week. After that its zonal flow across the northwestern CONUS into the northern plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG IFR to low end MVFR ceilings are forecast through the next 24 hours. Fog is forecast at ATY early this morning (visibility down to 8SM shortly at 05Z Monday. Light rain will dominate the afternoon hours.Expect winds to remain out of the north to north-northwest with gusts of 20-30kts. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06  714 FXHW60 PHFO 180632 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 832 PM HST Sun May 17 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A slightly unstable and somewhat wet trade wind flow will continue over the next few days with brief downpours possible. An increasingly stable, windy trade wind flow will develop during the second half of this week. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM HST Sun May 17 2026 This evening, heavy showers that occurred earlier in the day across portions of the state have largely diminished. Radar and satellite imagery still shows a few lighter windward and mauka showers at this time, which will likely continue throughout the night. The remainder of the forecast remains on track, so no updates have been made this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 PM HST Sun May 17 2026 Scattered heavy showers developed over select areas across the state today due to the higher than normal moisture values combined with some afternoon day time heating. As we head into the late afternoon and evening, the intensity of the showers should generally decrease. The one exception is over windward Big Island and possibly east Maui, where we are seeing frequent trade wind showers. Hilo sounding showed over 2 inches of precipitable water values this afternoon and a wet trade wind pattern could very well continue for the Big Island through the middle of the week with frequent showers over windward areas. Overall, broad troughing aloft combined with higher than normal precipitable water values and moderate easterly trade winds will continue to produce brief downpours at times through the middle of the week. Showers will generally favor windward areas during the overnight and morning hours with scattered leeward showers developing during the afternoons. Dewpoints will continue to linger in the upper 60s to low 70s, which should make temperatures feel warmer than normal. Increased stability and stronger trade winds are expected by Thursday. Latest global guidance from the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with a strong high developing far north of the state, which should result in windy conditions. Winds could very well reach Wind Advisory thresholds Thursday into Friday for select areas downstream of terrain. Drier conditions are also expected during this time, but scattered showers should continue to ride in with the windy trade winds especially during the night and early morning hours. && .AVIATION... Issued at 830 PM HST Sun May 17 2026 Moderate to locally breezy trades expected for the next couple days. Low cigs and SHRA should primarily impact windward and mauka locations with some limited spillover to leeward areas. Isol IFR and MVFR conds possible in heavier SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for Kauai, Oahu, Maui and windward sections of the Big Island. && .MARINE... Issued at 830 PM HST Sun May 17 2026 The pressure gradient back from a surface high centered 1,400 nm northeast of the islands remains tight enough to support moderate to locally fresh trades the next few days. This anchored high will strengthen and expand past mid week. The resultant tightening gradient will produce fresh to locally strong trades during the later half of the week. A small, medium period north northwest (320-330 degree) swell and associated north-facing surf will continue to slowly decline through early Monday morning. A small size, short to medium period north northwest bump in swell late Monday will provide an additional foot or two upon north-facing shore surf later in the day through Tuesday. The arrival of a couple of medium to long period south southwest (200 degree) swells will maintain near summertime average surf along southern facing shores through most of the week. Strengthening trades later this week will keep short period, elevated wind wave chop alive through the week. Water levels peaking between 2.5 to 3.0 ft MLLW during high tides the next couple of days will result in some minor overwash within low lying coastal areas. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Vaughan DISCUSSION...Kino AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Blood  833 FXUS62 KTAE 180633 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 233 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected through mid week. There is a high chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without cooling/hydration. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms will return mid to late week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that develop. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Upper ridge will remain draped through the southeast US through Tuesday while an upper trough digs southward to off the western Baja coast. The slug of moisture aiding convection development today along I75 will drift west towards the eastern Panhandle and southeast Alabama Monday while drier air (PWATS <1 inch) moves in from the Atlantic. Therefore, rain chances will be favored in our western zones Monday while the remainder of the tri-state area will be mostly dry. Much like today, thunderstorms that develop will be capable of gusty to strong winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Tuesday will continue the dry trend with minimal chances for rainfall. Upper ridge weakens beginning Wednesday as an upper low develops and translates west into the Bahamas. Moisture starts a gradual return Wednesday as well as rain chances on the GCSB. Meanwhile, a cold front will sit between the upper trough out west and the weakening ridge out east which will gradually stall to our north through northern Alabama and Georgia later this week. In response, winds turn more southerly which will be more favorable for development on the GCSB in the afternoon then interactions with the westward moving ECSB late afternoons and evenings. The front gradually weakens this weekend as the upper ridge strengthens once again and the Bahamas upper low gets shunted south. Rain chances gradually increase from 20-40% Thursday to 30-60% by next Sunday. Temperatures are fairly persistent with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the drier air and lower rain chances Tuesday through Thursday, this will be the hottest timeframe through next weekend. There is even a low chance for meeting or exceeding 95F in the Florida Big Bend and heat indices approaching 100F as well in isolated locations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Light winds prevail early this morning with VFR conditions expected through the rest of the TAF period for most terminals. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop near ECP and DHN terminals late this afternoon, affecting cigs and vsbys. Winds may be erratic and gusty in and around thunderstorms, along with frequent lightning. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Light to moderate east to southeast winds will continue through midweek as high pressure ridging remains draped across the Gulf waters. Easterly surges in the overnight hours will cause a slight uptick in winds, perhaps briefly reaching cautionary levels. Ridging weakens later this week as a cold front reaches the Mid South causing winds to become southerly. Chances increase for shower and thunderstorm activity across the Gulf waters next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 High dispersions are expected today across the Suwannee Valley and I- 75 corridor as mixing heights climb to near 7,000 feet with easterly transportwinds around 10 mph. Elsewhere, winds will be more southerly to southeasterly, but mixing heights will be lower, yielding good dispersions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in the eastern Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama as the seabreeze develops and pushes inland. A relatively dry period is on tap Tuesday through Thursday before better moisture arrives and rain chances gradually increase into the weekend. Good afternoon dispersions each day towards the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 70 92 70 / 0 0 10 10 Panama City 87 70 87 70 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 90 67 89 68 / 20 0 10 0 Albany 91 67 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 92 66 92 67 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 94 69 94 69 / 0 0 40 10 Apalachicola 83 73 83 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Young  847 FXUS61 KAKQ 180633 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 233 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. Pushed best rain chances slightly farther back in time Wed night/early Thu. Increased highs slightly for Wednesday into the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values likely remain close to the air temperature. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. 2) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a summer-like heat and continued dry conditions for the first half of the week. Widespread low-mid 90s are expected inland each day, with lower 90s closer to the immediate coast due to H85 temps maxing out between 18-20 deg C, deep mixing, and continued low-level SSW flow. Temps will be similar each day, perhaps increasing a degree or so each day, culminating with the warmest day of the week on Wednesday. The strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temps. The downside to that point is that limited moisture return and downslope flow aloft will also likely maintain dry wx across the region at least into Wed afternoon. By Wed afternoon, upper heights begin to fall during the day Wednesday ahead of an approaching a cold front that slowly approaches to our NW. Tstms should develop to our northwest during the afternoon, focused mainly on the pre-frontal leeside trough. Depending on timing of the front, some scattered showers and storms could move into the Piedmont/Northern Neck/MD Eastern Shore by Wed evening. It remains somewhat uncertain how far SE convection makes it Wed evening before some degree of diurnal weakening occurs, especially with frontal timing slowly trending a bit later in time over the past few model runs. At this time, it appears that convection most likely stays north and west of the RIC Metro Wed evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen to SE ridge farther south of the area, while also allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. While there remain model differences, the previously referenced cold front looks to slowly drop south across the area on Thursday. The front looks to linger across the area Thu night into Friday, and may move back north of the area late Friday- Friday night. With the front moving south of the area on Thursday, expect a cooler, cloudy day with mainly stratiform rain/drizzle Thu and Thu night, though it is possible the warm sector could linger a bit later into Thu across extreme SE portions of the area, allowing for few rumbles of thunder. Temps may struggle to get out of the lower 60s on Thursday and Friday (especially N/NE) as cool high pressure wedges down into the region. While the Thursday forecast is a bit higher confidence with the front dropping into the region, the temperature forecast on Friday and especially Saturday remains highly uncertain, and depends on the exact position of the front. LREF continues to feature model spread in 2m temperatures of ~12-15 deg F forFriday across much of the area! While some uncertainty lingers into Saturday, especially inland, it does appear as if the wedge airmass erodes quickly, as the parent high exits to the east and the front lifting back north of the local area into the upcoming weekend. Some additional isolated to scattered showers and a few storms (along with warmer temps) are possible Sat/Sun, but by no means does the holiday weekend look to be a washout. Gradual warming is expected as we head into early next week, as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies early next week. As for precipitation amounts, ensemble (EPS/GEPS/GEFS) probabilities for at least 0.5" of 48-hour total rainfall for the Wed night-Fri Night period still hover around or just above 50-70% across the entire CWA. However, it is hard to stay as optimistic as ensemble/NBM guidance, given that 1) a potentially unfavorable FROPA timing for convection (Model timing with the front is even later into Wed night/early Thu. Wednesday's convection looks likely to be focused to our NNW, with Thursday's heavier rainfall potentially to be suppressed to our south) and 2) several recent rain events have underperformed with respect to Day 3-5 model/ensemble forecasts. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions currently across area terminals look to prevail through the 06z/17 TAF period, as high pressure remains anchored offshore. Aside from some SCT high clouds this morning, mainly clear across the area today. Winds remain light ~5-8 kt out of the SSW, backing to the SSE this afternoon ~10 kt with occasional gusts to ~15 kt. Outlook...VFR conditions expected through midweek, as high pressure remains in control. South/southwest winds each afternoon may gust to 15-20kt each day through Wed. Next chance of rain not expected until late Wed or Thursday. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. The latest wx analysis shows expansive high pressure offshore and to the southeast. Sub-SCA conditions will likely continue through at least mid-week as the Bermuda high settles into place. Light winds out of the southwest are observed today between 5-10 kt. Waves are measured to be ~1 ft in the Ches. Bay and seas of 2-3 ft in the coastal waters. Winds will remain similar through the rest of the day and into Monday afternoon. SSW winds will then increase slightly to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt Monday afternoon in the Ches. Bay and coastal waters, but should stay below SCA criteria. A similar story will be seen Tuesday afternoon as winds approach marginal SCA conditions with SSW becoming 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the Ches. Bay and 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the coastal waters north of the VA/NC state border. Confidence is low in needing SCAs as local probs are still quite low. The next cold front looks to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief marginal SCA conditions are possible and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend. && .CLIMATE... As of 145 AM Monday... Record High Temps for 5/18 - 5/20 Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 95 (1962) 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 95 (1877) 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 96 (1911) 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 93 (1987) 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/18- 5/20Record Record Record High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 72 (2015) 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 75 (1995) 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 71 (1953) 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 73 (1995) 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM AVIATION...AC/MAM MARINE...KMC CLIMATE...MAM  904 FXUS61 KGYX 180634 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 234 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Raised PoPs some for northern NH and the western ME mountains for this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Cooler today in ME with easterly winds, but still very warm across much of NH. A few showers possible this morning in central and northern NH including the western ME mountains. 2. Tuesday and Wednesday should feature the warmest temperatures of the year thus far with chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some potentially strong. 3. Expect cooler and dry conditions to end the work week with temperatures around or slightly below normal for this time of year through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will slide offshore early this morning allowing SFC winds to have an easterly component going through the day today. With ocean temperatures still in the 40s, most Maine zones outside of the mountains should be a good deal cooler today. Temperatures will continue to be quite warm in much of NH as the ocean will obviously have lesser of a cooling influence. A modest burst of WAA aloft will aid in a chance for showers across central and northern NH this morning, with perhaps even a rumble of thunder will relatively steep lapse rates aloft. This activity should lift northeastward into the western ME mountains and foothills by late morning then dry out. The rest of the forecast area should remain dry. Showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder may affect northernmost NH and the western ME mountains tonight but the bulk of the activity should remain in Canada as warm front returns northward there. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A progressive low amplitude shortwave trough will pass north of the forecast area on Tuesday, flattening the ridge a bit and leading to some modest height falls. A band of mid-level westerlys in the 40 to 50 knot range will spread across the region through early afternoon, which could lead to some early day storms in the vicinity of the southern Kennebec Valley and portions of the Midcoast. A second wave will approach New Hampshire late afternoon or early evening. Storms may be ongoing over Vermont before moving into New Hampshire and we could also have some additional development over the mountains. In both potential storm regimes, storm coverage remains uncertain given nebulous forcing mechanisms and less than ideal diurnal timing (early in the day for the eastern storms and closer to evening for the western/northern storms). All in all, both environments could see CAPE values in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and deep layer shear up to 35 knots or so. Thus, any storms that do form could become strong or marginally severe with the primary threats of small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Showers and storms should diminish mid to late evening. A cold front will move across the area of Wednesday and guidance has continued the trend of speeding that passage up. In fact, the NAM almost has the front around the Midcoast by 18z. So, we do have a risk for some stronger storms earlier in the day on Wednesday along and ahead of the front but the window will be short before the boundary moves out over the waters. Tuesday and Wednesday will also be the warmest days of the year thus far with widespread highs in the 80s and potentially even in the lower 90s. Tuesday's highs will range from the upper 70s and lower 80s north, to the upper 80s and lower 90s south. Coastal areas may be a little bit cooler given an onshore wind component. Wednesday will be a touch cooler for most with the passage of the cold front. We will still see widespread highs in the low to mid 80s along and south of the Foothills. Temperatures over the higher terrain will max out in the lower 60s to low/mid 70s. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... We will cool down behind the front through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. The coolest day will be on Thursday when highs will mainly range from the low to mid 50s north, to the low to mid 60s south. We warm just slightly on Friday and temperatures generally stay around or slightly below normal through the weekend. The weather pattern also favors dry conditions during this time frame. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12z Tuesday...VFR today with lighter winds. Winds will have an easterly component. VFR tonight for most locations. However, with low level easterlies we may see some MVFR restrictions in mist, especially on the coastal plain. Outlook: Tuesday: Afternoon SHRA/TS chances near the US/CAN border. There is uncertainty how far east and south SHRA/TS develop in the afternoon. Tuesday night: Coverage of SHRA decreases. VFR forecast. Wednesday: A cold front passes through the region with SHRA/TS west to east through the day. MVFR possible w/ frontal passage and in showers/storms. Wednesday night: Winds shift NW with VFR behind exiting cold front. Thursday and Thursday night: VFR expected with no sig wx. Friday and Friday night: VFR expected with no sig wx. && .MARINE... High pressure moves over the waters today with relatively light easterly to southeasterly winds. Winds may approach SCA criteria on the coastal waters Tuesday and Wednesday as southerly fetch builds. Winds then become offshore behind a stronger cold front Wed evening. High pressure builds in from the west mid to late week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ekster/Hargrove  867 FXUS61 KRNK 180634 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 234 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Chance of rain likely later in the week with cold front passage. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple opportunities for precipitation following the cold front on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiple opportunities for precipitation following the cold front on Wednesday. The warming trend will continue until a cold front arrives Wednesday to briefly bring cooler temperatures and the start of a wet trend for the region. The center of a surface high pressure system over Bermuda will nudge a little eastward and permit an approaching cold front to reach our area. The cold front's arrival will likely be as early as Wednesday. The front will struggle to pass southward but will be forced back northward as a warm front due to the presence of a developing low in south- central CONUS. The meandering behavior of the front suggests a multi-day precipitation trend where pretty much the entire region will get daily chances of rain. This is excellent news in relation to the drought conditions we have been going through this Spring. Flood concerns are on the lower end as it would take several inches in an hour to lead to any flash flooding. In addition, the rainfall estimates for Wednesday and Thursday combined range between 0.5-1.0 inches at best. PWATs are projected to average around 1-1.5" from Wednesday onward so some storms that develop may have relatively heavy rainfall rates. The severe weather threat looks to be low for Wednesday and Thursday. CAPE, no doubt, will be plentiful with the warm and moist conditions but the wind shear will be better to the north with bulk shear of only about 25 knots over southwest VA. Lapse rates are also underwhelming given the presence of warmer air aloft due to a 850mb surface high off the Atlantic. Still, the shear may be enough to support some organized multicells and modeled skew-Ts suggest inverted V soundings so the threat of damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. As a side note, the cold front will have a large surface high pressure system behind it, centered over the Great Lakes as it passes to our north. It will briefly wedge into our mountains and provide a break in the warm temperatures with highs in the 60s and lower 70s by Friday. The wedge and temperature drop does not last since the warm front then moves north to return high temperatures back to the 70s to lower 80s. Dew points and PWATs take a short dip as well but recover by the weekend. The warm front will be back to our north by the weekend and with reinforced warm and moist temperatures, the chances of daily rainfall may continue into early next week. Model guidance also hints at another surface low moving northeast across the Midwest and sending another front through by this weekend. Confidence is highest for rain on Wednesday and Thursday and any rain chances following will be monitored in future forecasts. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Aside from possible reduced VSBY/cig at KLWB from any fog that forms, expect VFR conditions through the period. Some daytime cu near 5-6 kft could form at the mountain sites otherwise some cirrus is possible. Daytime winds mainly south to SW at 10kts or less then decreasing back by this evening. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through the beginning of the week outside of any river valley fog that may develop. This river valley fog may lead to some brief periods of restrictions due to lowering VSBYs at LWB. More widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Rain and storm chances and cloud cover linger through the end of the week with the system possibly stalling across the area. This may lead to sub-VFR conditions through the end of the work week. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Monday, May 18, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 94 in 1962 69 in 1996 92 Lynchburg 93 in 1911 68 in 1894 92 Danville 93 in 1974 69 in 2015 94 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 2015 86 Blacksburg 88 in 1911 61 in 2018 89 Tuesday, May 19, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 96 in 1962 69 in 2022 94 Lynchburg 93 in 1962 66 in 2022 93 Danville 95 in 1962 69 in 1962 94 Bluefield 89 in 1911 66 in 1977 86 Blacksburg 91 in 1911 61 in 1938 90 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CG AVIATION...AB CLIMATE...RCS  965 FXUS63 KGLD 180635 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1235 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Large range of temperatures today with highs in the low/mid 40s (Yuma county ) to the low 70s (Greeley/Wichita) - Breezy to gusty winds are forecast this afternoon and may lead to blowing dust with visibilities less than one mile (20% chance) along and south of Highway 40. - Early Tuesday morning, a freeze watch is in effect for Eastern Colorado where temperatures could drop into the upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1232 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A weak surface trough remains across the northern portion of the area as is forecast to lead to isolated showers and storms favoring Yuma county through the early morning hours. Just southeast of the area a cold front has stalled out leading to training storms. The position of this front is very important for the forecast for Monday. First off however northeast flow is forecast to remain in place with stratus and perhaps some fog as well but the fog potential is rather low as winds are forecast to be breezy around 10-20 mph sustained. Am seeing some isentropic ascent as well overnight leading to the continued potential for drizzle or light showers developing across most of the area. Dry air above 700mb should help any prevent any updraft from utilizing any remaining MUCAPE aloft so not expecting any overnight storms due to this. Monday, as mentioned above the positioning of the boundary tonight will be very important for temperatures and even blowing dust potential. The cold front that moved through the area today is forecast to be stalled out as a stationary front. Some guidance continues to show it being stalled out roughly around Highway 40 in the southern part of the forecast area; whereas others has it south of the of the area across southwest Kansas. If the front does remain around Highway 40 then temperatures south of there would be around 5- 10 degrees warmer than what is currently forecast at this time along with elevated to even very locally critical fire weather conditions in place. Blowing dust would with visibilities falling to around 1 mile or less would also be possible with plumes of dust. Around 21Z a stronger surge of cold air advection is forecast to move in as a low pressure system pulls off to the east. If the warmer air in place remains in the area then a haboob could be possible as mixing heights are forecast to be around 6000 feet AGL. With all of this have decided to introduce patchy blowing dust into the forecast as confidence is around 20% in dust developing and around 5-10% in a haboob. Have been noticing a more southern trend with the positioning of the stationary front in ensembles and most of 00Z data and if that does continue then any dust threat would be eliminated. Winds are forecast to increase with gusts around 50-55 mph with the front especially south of Interstate 70 and gusts up to 40 mph elsewhere from the north. The winds will also lead to chilly wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s especially across Yuma county where temperatures may struggle to warm up much. With persistent low clouds currently forecast to remain in place through the day and the signal for the stationary boundary to remain south of the area have nudged down temperatures more. High temperatures are currently in the mid 40s to mid 50s behind the front and 70s to low 80s ahead of the front. If the front indeed is south of the area then any severe threat would also be eliminated. Showers and storms however are forecast to develop during the afternoon hours with some 500mb vorticity off of the mountains but minimal CAPE and what is forecast to be a fairly stable environment so anticipating any hazards with this activity at this time. Cold air advection is forecast to continue through the night Monday. Guidance continues to suggest that stratus returns or even continues in spots. Breezy winds are forecast to remain in place for the majority of the night with the exception being across eastern Colorado where a surface high is forecast to move in from the northwest waning winds. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s across eastern Colorado. There are some failure points to how cold it may get however. The first one is the lingering low level moisture in place keeping low clouds across the area. The other is the breezy winds through the night. With all of this in place confidence is not high enough to upgrade to a warning or even Frost Advisory at this time so will leave the watch as is. Tuesday, the surface high is forecast to be over more of the area leading to lighter winds and from the east. Another cool day is forecast across the area with highs currently forecast in the 60s. Dry conditions are currently forecast for most of the day but an advancing 500mb shortwave off of the mountains is forecast to gradually increase shower potential starting during the evening and overnight hours. Minimal CAPE is forecast to be present so currently not anticipating any thunderstorm potential with this activity. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Wednesday, our region is forecast under a southwest upper-level flow with a weak trough developing west of the Rocky Mountains and a ridge building off the west coast. Wednesday will be cool and windy with high temperatures forecast in the 60s and wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph are possible west of Highway 27. Several embedded shortwaves will pass through the region bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The entire county warning area (CWA) has a Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 30-40% during the day Wednesday. PoPs increase in the evening to around 60-70% and persist overnight into Thursday for the southern CWA. Conditions remain unseasonably cool for Thursday with highs again forecast in the 60s. Our region remains in a southwest upper-level flow with embedded shortwaves passing through, so chances for showers and thunderstorms continue. Cooler temperatures and a mostly stable environment will likely keep and storms that develop sub- severe. Pops range from 30-60% Thursday overnight into Friday with the southern CWA on the higher end. Ensembles are in disagreement on when the aforementioned trough ejects eastward and takes us out of the persistent southwest flow, but it will likely move on after Friday. A slight warming trend begins Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Friday and 80s for Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain Friday through Saturday with PoPs around 20-30% for the eastern CWA as several shortwaves pass through the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1104 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Stratus is currently developing across the area as ceilings are forecast to drop to MVFR. A gradually drop to IFR is also forecast as well along with the potential for some light showers or drizzle overnight for each terminal. Confidence in the showers is around 20-30%. Stratus is forecast to continue for most if not all of the day for each terminal with perhaps a brief break around 00Z before returning again as the sun sets. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for COZ090>092. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...Trigg  050 FXUS61 KAKQ 180638 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 238 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. Pushed best rain chances slightly farther back in time Wed night/early Thu. Increased highs slightly for Wednesday into the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values likely remain close to the air temperature. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. 2) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a summer-like heat and continued dry conditions for the first half of the week. Widespread low-mid 90s are expected inland each day, with lower 90s closer to the immediate coast due to H85 temps maxing out between 18-20 deg C, deep mixing, and continued low-level SSW flow. Temps will be similar each day, perhaps increasing a degree or so each day, culminating with the warmest day of the week on Wednesday. The strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temps. The downside to that point is that limited moisture return and downslope flow aloft will also likely maintain dry wx across the region at least into Wed afternoon. By Wed afternoon, upper heights begin to fall during the day Wednesday ahead of an approaching a cold front that slowly approaches to our NW. Tstms should develop to our northwest during the afternoon, focused mainly on the pre-frontal leeside trough. Depending on timing of the front, some scattered showers and storms could move into the Piedmont/Northern Neck/MD Eastern Shore by Wed evening. It remains somewhat uncertain how far SE convection makes it Wed evening before some degree of diurnal weakening occurs, especially with frontal timing slowly trending a bit later in time over the past few model runs. At this time, it appears that convection most likely stays north and west of the RIC Metro Wed evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen to SE ridge farther south of the area, while also allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. While there remain model differences, the previously referenced cold front looks to slowly drop south across the area on Thursday. The front looks to linger across the area Thu night into Friday, and may move back north of the area late Friday- Friday night. With the front moving south of the area on Thursday, expect a cooler, cloudy day with mainly stratiform rain/drizzle Thu and Thu night, though it is possible the warm sector could linger a bit later into Thu across extreme SE portions of the area, allowing for few rumbles of thunder. Temps may struggle to get out of the lower 60s on Thursday and Friday (especially N/NE) as cool high pressure wedges down into the region. While the Thursday forecast is a bit higher confidence with the front dropping into the region, the temperature forecast on Friday and especially Saturday remains highly uncertain, and depends on the exact position of the front. LREF continues to feature model spread in 2m temperatures of ~12-15 deg F for Friday across much of the area! While some uncertainty lingers into Saturday, especially inland, it does appear as if the wedge airmass erodes quickly, as the parent high exits to the east and the front lifting back north of the local area into the upcoming weekend. Some additional isolated to scattered showers and a few storms (along with warmer temps) are possible Sat/Sun, but by no means does the holiday weekend look to be a washout. Gradual warming is expected as we head into early next week, as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies early next week. As for precipitation amounts, ensemble (EPS/GEPS/GEFS) probabilities for at least 0.5" of 48-hour total rainfall for the Wed night-Fri Night period still hover around or just above 50-70% across the entire CWA. However, it is hard to stay as optimistic as ensemble/NBM guidance, given that 1) a potentially unfavorable FROPA timing for convection (Model timing with the front is even later into Wed night/early Thu. Wednesday's convection looks likely to be focused to our NNW, with Thursday's heavier rainfall potentially to be suppressed to our south) and 2) several recent rain events have underperformed with respect to Day 3-5 model/ensemble forecasts. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions currently across area terminals look to prevail through the 06z/17 TAF period, as high pressure remains anchored offshore. Aside from some SCT high clouds this morning, mainly clear across the area today. Winds remain light ~5-8 kt out of the SSW, backing to the SSE this afternoon ~10 kt with occasional gusts to ~15 kt. Outlook...VFR conditions expected through midweek, as high pressure remains in control. South/southwest winds each afternoon may gust to 15-20kt each day through Wed. Next chance of rain not expected until late Wed or Thursday. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. - A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions. Expansive high pressure remains parked across the western Atlantic and extends across the Southeast. Winds remain out of the SW at generally 10 to 15 kt across the local waters. Seas are 2-3 ft across the coastal waters and 1 ft or less in the Bay and rivers (1- 2 ft at the mouth of the Bay). Through mid-week, high pressure will remain parked across the western Atlantic in a typical summertime Bermuda High configuration. Winds remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late-afternoon nearshore seabreeze. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish through the overnight. These surges will be relatively brief and likely will not require any SCAs. Expect generally benign marine conditions to prevail through at least midweek. The next cold front looks to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief marginal SCA conditions are possible and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend. && .CLIMATE... As of 145 AM Monday... Record High Temps for 5/18 - 5/20 Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 95 (1962) 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 95 (1877) 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 96 (1911) 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 93 (1987) 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/18- 5/20 Record Record Record High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 72 (2015) 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 75 (1995) 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 71 (1953) 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 73 (1995) 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM AVIATION...AC/MAM MARINE...NB CLIMATE...MAM  060 FXUS64 KCRP 180638 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 138 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts today and Tuesday, heat indices 100-110 - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning - Medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday night through the upcoming weekend. Total rainfall generally 1.5-3.0". - Dangerous swimming conditions with a moderate to high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 We'll start off with analyzing the current environment. Our latest 00Z sounding shows PWAT values right at 2.0" (99th percentile) while satellite earlier, depicted splotches of PWATs up to 2.2". Needless to say, we are near climatological max already when it comes to atmospheric moisture. Streaks of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms have flown by to the northeast from the southwest, oriented with the 500mb shortwave trough. We'll continue to see these streaks of showers and occasional thunderstorms through Tuesday before coverage and chances ramp up significantly. Rain chances ramp up to a medium (40-60%) chance Tuesday night as an inverted surface trough develops ahead of an approaching but dying cold front. However, convection earlier on in the day northward will likely develop outflow boundaries that can enhance storm's longevity as they move southward. Therefore, South Texas is in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of strong to severe storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the significant elevated instability, DCAPE, and moisture in place, primary threats are large hail and damaging winds at this time. A series of repeating mid-level shortwaves will pass over South Texas through this weekend as a more potent trough or cutoff mid- level low develops over northern Mexico and moves eastward into Texas. Near climatological max moisture in combination of these disturbances, will warrant a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms daily. Total rainfall through Saturday looks to range from around 1.50" along the coast to around 3.00" over northern counties from La Salle to Victoria counties. This is a good blend between the various long range ensembles. The GEFS lower along the coast of 1.00" but around 3.00" over the northern Nueces River Basin, the ECENS from 1.50 along the Rio Grande to near 3.5" over the Victoria Crossroads, and the GEM with a widespread 2.50-3.00". Due to these rain amounts, and locally higher up to 5", much of South Texas will be under a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding Tuesday night through Friday. We'll also need to monitor river levels as action to minor flood stage will likely occur across the state as upstream flow makes its way down in combination of additional heavy rains. Multiple rounds of rain will increase soil moisture and lead to more efficient runoff the longer we get into the event. Dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 70s and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to near 100, will bring a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts across South Texas today and Tuesday. Max heat indices will range from 100-110 with greatest impacts over the Brush Country where there will be fewer clouds in the afternoons. Persistent strong onshore flow with swell periods of 7-8 seconds warrants a high risk of rip currents, causing dangerous swimming conditions. These conditions will also lead to another threat for minor coastal flooding early this morning during high tide. We'll need to keep a close eye on webcams with how much wave runup we get, but confidence is low with the lack of buoy observations. Fun fact at Corpus Christi: Total precipitation of at least 2.0" from May 19th through May 23rd has occurred 11 out of the 139 years in the period of record, 7.9% of the time! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR conditions continue through the overnight hours. By 16Z, the low-cloud deck will start lifting bringing back VFR though isolated showers will remain in the vicinity through the entire day. It won't be until after 22Z that MVFR conditions due to lowering CIGs for most terminals. A TEMPO group was added to KLRD before 00Z for any thunderstorm activity coming off the mountains of northern Mexico. Winds will continue to be breeze out of the SE at 15-20 kts gusting 35 kts this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly breeze will persist through Tuesday night. The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect through Tuesday morning for all waters due to sustained winds around 20 knots and frequent gusts to around 25 knots. Seas will also generally range from 5-7 feet. Southeasterly flow weakens to gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) Wednesday into this weekend. Low to medium rain chances begin Tuesday night through Wednesday night, then increase to a medium to high chance, 50-70%, Thursday into this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 No elevated fire weather conditions are expected through this week. Moisture will continue to increase, causing minimum relative humidity values to stay above 40%. Low rain chances through Tuesday, increase to a medium to high (40-80%) Tuesday night into this weekend && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 80 90 78 / 20 20 20 50 Victoria 91 78 91 75 / 20 20 20 50 Laredo 100 79 99 76 / 20 20 20 50 Alice 95 79 94 77 / 20 20 20 50 Rockport 90 80 89 79 / 20 20 20 50 Cotulla 99 79 98 74 / 20 20 20 50 Kingsville 93 80 91 77 / 20 20 20 50 Navy Corpus 88 81 87 80 / 20 20 20 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CDT today for TXZ345-442-443- 447. High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday evening for TXZ345-442-443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...AE/82  337 FXUS61 KALY 180643 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 243 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Tue across most of eastern NY and western New England with damaging winds the main threat. Winds/wind gusts slightly increased for Tue through Wed with frontal passage mid week, as cooler temps return late Wed-Thu. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above-normal temps continue into the mid-week. The NWS HeatRisk is in the moderate category for heat-related impacts, especially on Tue. 2) Coverage of showers and t-storms increases Tue pm into Wed ahead of a cold front. Some strong to potentially severe t-storms possible Tue pm/early evening and also Wed south of the Capital District. 3) A return to more seasonable temps is expected late this week with the next chance for widespread rain being next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid and upper level ridge near the East Coast will bring above normal temps to the forecast area today-Tue. The ridge builds in this morning, as a weak frontal boundary lifts north, as a warm front with some isolated to widely scattered showers and t-storms over the southern Adirondacks and Lake George Region. Low and mid level heights increase 1-2+ STDEVs above normal based on the latest NAEFS. H850 temps will rise 2-3 STDEVS above normal by Tue with the actual temps in the +15C to +19C range. Max temps today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s over the higher terrain. Heat indices/apparent temps will be in the 80s to lower 90s. An isolated pop-up shower/t-storm can not be ruled out, especially late in the pm/early evening over the west/southwest Adirondacks. Lows will be quite mild tonight in the 60s with some upper 50s over the higher terrain. The warmest day will be on Tue with max temps about 20 degrees above normal. The NBM continues to run warm and our forecast highs for Tue involves blending with persistence/prev fx and trimming by a few degrees based on H850 temps +16C to +19C with dewpts in the upper 50s to lower 60s (spotty mid 60s) was considered with the south/southwest boundary layer flow. Max temps will be more widespread in the lower 90s in the valleys and 80s over the hills and mtns. Some records could be tied or broken on Tue (see the Climate section below). A few isolated spots in the mid Hudson Valley may hit apparent temps/heat indices (feels-like temps) in the mid-90s, but the air temps will be close to the apparent temps. No heat advisories are planned at this time. However, the hot conditions with some moderate humidity levels have cause the NWS HeatRisk to be in the moderate category for most of the forecast area on Tue (spotty in the major category in the mid Hudson Valley). This category affects the population that are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling systems/hydration, and some health systems and industries. The heat subsides by Wed with a cold frontal passage with some showers and t-storms. KEY MESSAGE 2... The coverage and intensity of convection is still uncertain Tue-Wed across eastern NY and western New England. SPC continues a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) to Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather across the forecast area Tue-Tue night. Some of the CAMs indicate a pre-frontal sfc trough/lake breeze boundary may focus convection in the afternoon (mid to late pm) and it extends into the early evening. The 0-6 km shear does not look exceptionally strong at 25-35 KT, but MLCAPEs may reach 1000-1500 J/kg especially along or north and west of Albany. The Slight Risk covers the western Mohawk Valley, southern Adirondacks and the Lake George Region. Steep low-level lapse rates will bein place with DCAPEs around 1000 J/kg. The latest ARW-WRF 1 & 2 support more coverage than the 3-km NAM or HRRR. The atmosphere becomes less capped with the front approaching Tue night. It becomes breezier ahead of the front. The main threat with any severe thunderstorms will be damaging winds. The instability wanes Tue night with the frontal boundary placement tricky for Wed. The latest forecast supports the front near the Capital District, southern VT and the northern Catskills in the late morning early pm and moving south quickly. The latest NBM probabilities for >1000 J/kg of SBCAPE Wed early pm are surpressed south and east of the Tri Cities towards the mid Hudson Valley and I-84 corridor. A few t-storms could be on the strong side closer to this area. It will become breezy in the wake of the front with west to northwest winds 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph. Max temps may range from the 60s to lower 70s over the western Mohawk/southern Dacks to the upper 80s to lower 90s over the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. The Capital Region was favored in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Much cooler air filters in Wed night. KEY MESSAGE 3... Strong cold advection continues across the region Wed night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s with some upper 30s in the Adirondack Park, as the growing season begins there May 21st. A 1030 hPa sfc anticyclone builds in from southern Ontario and the Great Lakes Region on Thu. Temps will be near or slightly below normal in the 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain and mid and upper 60s in the valleys. The cooler and drier weather continues Thu night thru Fri with some patchy to areas of frost possible in the southern Adirondacks. Wetter and more unsettled weather returns potentially Fri night into the Memorial Day Holiday weekend, as a warm front and a low pressure system may bring occasional showers with slightly cooler than normal temps. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday, mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. However, upper level disturbances could bring a few showers/thunderstorms to KGFL between 10Z-14Z/Mon, and again 00Z-03Z/Tue. Brief MVFR/IFR Vsbys could occur within any heavier downpours. Light/variable winds will become southeast to south and increase to 8-12 KT by late morning, with some gusts of 15-20 KT possible this afternoon. South winds will persist after sunset at 5-10 KT. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... High Temperature Records: May 19 - Tuesday Albany, NY: 91 degrees set in 1989 Glens Falls, NY: 88 degrees set in 1989 Poughkeepsie, NY: 96 degrees set in 1962 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...24 CLIMATE...31  347 FXUS61 KRLX 180643 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 243 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Portions of our northeast mountains have been clipped with a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening, with the bulk of activity streaming into the Pittsburgh, State College, and Baltimore/Washington forecast office areas. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot temperatures, reminiscent of mid to late summer, takes center stage for the start of the week amid strong upper level height rises. Peak afternoon temperatures reaching the lower 90s Monday and Tuesday could stir up heat impacts to sensitive populations. 2) Low end chances for diurnally driven showers and storms along the mountains late this afternoon. A strong cold front sweeping through the region Wednesday will bring the return of widespread showers and storms, along with relief from the heat. Daily chances for precipitation rounds out the work week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure centered off the Carolina coast will bolster strong upper level height rises for the Central Appalachians the next two days. This will result in peak afternoon temperatures stemming into the upper 80s to low 90s for areas outside of the higher terrain both today and Tuesday. Heat index levels are not anticipated to reach thresholds warranting headlines this week, however temperatures this hot so early in the season could cause heat sensitivity impacts to vulnerable populations. If spending time outdoors the next few days, ensure you adequately hydrate and take frequent breaks from the heat. A mid week cold front will bring relief from this stretch of hot weather, with temperatures returning to their seasonable norms for the second half of the week. Amid this warm spell, temperature records could be neared at a few sites. More details on climate records can be seen in the Climate Section further below. KEY MESSAGE 2... While robust high pressure to our southeast supplies subsidence and resulting dry weather to most of the forecast area today, a few diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms could sprout within afternoon cumulus fields along the northeast mountains. Low end chance POPs were included for our higher mountain zones late in the afternoon into the evening, with the bulk of convection streaming northeastward into neighboring forecast office territories. This notion reflects nicely with the Marginal Risk for severe weather introduced with this morning's Day One outlook issuance from SPC. Dry weather then settles back into the entire forecast area late tonight through much of the day Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, the risk for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms increases as a cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley. A long corridor stemming from southwest Texas to the Great Lakes region has been placed in a Slight Risk for severe weather on Tuesday, with lessening potential for eastern Ohio into West Virginia as storms encroach amid weakening instability around sunset. Overnight thunderstorm activity is not out of the question as the onset of precipitation overspreads the forecast area Tuesday night, becoming mostly showers by the predawn hours. The frontal boundary will be draped overhead on Wednesday, with chances for strong to severe storms resuming in the afternoon for locations ahead of the front that can achieve some destabilization. The cold front will struggle to make much progress out of the area due to the strength of the Bermuda high. This will cause the boundary to become stagnant across the Carolinas and Mississippi Valley and eventually retreating back to the north late within the valid forecast period. As a result, unsettled weather triumphs for the second half of the work week and into the weekend, with a steady plume of moisture feeding into the region and maintaining daily opportunities for showers and storms. This will bring mostly beneficial rainfall to our drought stricken forecast area. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR prevails at the time of writing, but monitoring for river valley fog development heading into the morning. Slightly breezy winds aloft is progged to keep fog at bay, so opted to remove any mentioning of sub-VFR conditions with the 06Z issuance. Generally quiet weather triumphs today amid passing mid to upper level clouds. Afternoon southwesterly breezes possible across the area before decoupling late this evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Locally dense fog possible around sunrise at EKN and CRW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/18/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .CLIMATE... Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------- Mon, 5/18 | Tue, 5/19 | -------------------------------------- CRW | 91 / 92 (1982) | 91 / 95 (1931) | HTS | 90 / 92 (1962) | 90 / 92 (1996) | CKB | 89 / 92 (1962) | 89 / 90 (1959) | PKB | 90 / 95 (1962) | 90 / 90 (1964) | BKW | 85 / 87 (1996) | 85 / 89 (1996) | EKN | 86 / 89 (1911) | 87 / 93 (1996) | -------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05 CLIMATE...05  245 FXUS65 KBYZ 180641 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1241 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost/freeze this morning and Tuesday morning, coldest Tuesday morning. Make sure to protect sensitive vegetation. - Cooler and breezy with occasional chances of precipitation today. - Light snow accumulations (an inch or less) over the foothills this morning. Minor impacts to travel are possible. - Periods of moderate mountain snow today. Recreation could be impacted by winter conditions. - Another weather system brings the chance of precipitation Wednesday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday... Today will be cool, breezy, and unsettled under the influence cyclonic flow aloft. With this, high temperatures will be in the 40s to lower 50s with brisk northerly wind gusts in the teens and 20s mph for most, with occasional 30s mph near the mountains and foothills. While there is at least a slight chance (15 percent or greater) of light precipitation across the area today, the best chance of more persistent precipitation is to the south near the Montana-Wyoming state line. With this, snow levels will be low enough to favor a rain and snow mix, with mostly snow during the morning hours over the foothills. This may lead to minor travel impacts for the morning commute along the Beartooth and Red Lodge foothills and the Sheridan foothills. However, accumulations are expected to remain relatively light with additional accumulations up to an inch mainly on grassy surfaces. Slick roads could also develop as temperatures drop below freezing tonight along the foothills. With that said, the Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Beartooth and Red Lodge foothills to accommodate the potential for additional, potentially more robust snow shower development this morning. Precipitation gradually comes to an end late today, lingering the longest over far eastern Montana. A stray shower or two may even linger into early Tuesday morning over Fallon and Carter Counties (up to a 15 percent chance). Tuesday will be warmer with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s. While most areas will remain dry under shortwave ridging aloft, an isolated shower or two is possible over the mountains west of Billings during the afternoon (10 to 20 percent chance). Wednesday into Thursday, the chance of precipitation returns as another weather system and associated cold front move through the region. This cold front, expected to drop through the area sometime late Wednesday into early Thursday, looks to bring decent frontogenesis that could support at least scattered precipitation. With this, the chance of seeing any precipitation is currently 40 to 80 percent, greatest over south-central Montana and north-central Wyoming where upslope enhancement looks to be in play. The one potential issue to watch is that models are starting to show the system may split. If this happens, the best energy could dive south and limit the precipitation potential over our area. At this time though, models continue to provide enough frontogenesis and upslope enhancement to favor precipitation. As far as the precipitation type goes, precipitation would mostly be rain for the lower elevations and snow in the mountains with snow levels around 7000 feet. Friday into the weekend looks to remain unsettled with northwesterly flow aloft. While temperatures are currently advertised to warm back into upper 70s and 80s this weekend, temperatures may trend slightly cooler (more in the 70s) as potential weather systems moving through the northwesterly flow aloft are picked up in the models. Arends .AVIATION... Snow showers will continue to obscure the mountains at times today. Scattered rain/snow showers will impact foothill locations at times as well (KLVM and KSHR), with isolated rain showers over the plains. MVFR to local IFR conditions are possible with the showers, with more widespread MVFR ceilings overspreading the area early this morning. Look for conditions to gradually improve during the afternoon and evening with lifting ceilings and decreasing shower coverage. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 050 029/067 043/071 043/063 042/071 045/079 050/084 2/W 10/U 01/B 75/T 11/B 00/B 01/B LVM 048 025/062 036/065 036/061 036/068 040/076 044/080 4/W 10/B 02/W 85/T 12/T 11/B 11/N HDN 050 026/067 037/073 041/064 039/072 042/079 047/083 2/W 10/U 01/B 65/T 22/T 10/B 01/B MLS 048 030/064 040/073 043/065 041/071 043/078 048/082 2/W 20/U 01/B 44/W 11/B 10/B 11/B 4BQ 045 029/062 038/072 043/062 040/068 043/076 048/081 5/W 20/U 00/U 26/W 22/W 10/B 01/B BHK 046 029/059 035/072 039/064 038/068 042/075 046/081 4/W 20/B 01/B 34/W 32/W 21/B 11/B SHR 043 024/060 031/067 036/058 033/067 036/075 040/080 8/W 10/U 01/U 47/T 23/T 11/B 01/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until noon MDT today FOR ZONES 56-66-171. WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until noon MDT today FOR ZONE 198. && $$ weather.gov/billings  647 FXUS62 KCAE 180646 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 246 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast confidence regarding above normal temperatures and the next chances for rain remain on track. Aviation discussion updated for 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. High confidence in above normal temperatures over the next several days. - 2. A pattern shift mid to late week may lead to increasing rain chances into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: High confidence in above normal temperatures over the next several days. Confidence remains high in the temperature forecast through at least Wednesday. Upper troughing in the west will keep the ridge amplified over the eastern CONUS over the next several days. The resulting south to southwesterly flow into the middle of the country will keep moisture anomalies and the storm track out of our region. In response, increasing heights and thicknesses across the southeast will bring above normal temperatures for mid-May, with highs in the low 90s through at least Wednesday. The offshore Bermuda high will also remain quasistationary, and south to southeasterly flow should continue to feed a steady stream of low level moisture into the state with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s much of the week. This shallow moisture will also make daily fair-weather cu and overnight stratus a part of diurnal trends over the next several days. Key Message 2: A pattern shift mid to late week may lead to increasing rain chances into this weekend. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday with the stagnant pattern and PWATS generally near or perhaps slightly below normal levels. Late in the week, generally from Thursday onward, some weakness in this pattern will allow a few disturbances to track through the TN valley and slightly increase PWAT values in our area to between 1.25" and 1.7". Latest guidance keeps the best moisture transport to our west, but this slight shift in the pattern may bring an increase in rain chances lasting Thursday into the upcoming weekend. Details regarding the best timing and potential rainfall amounts will continue to come into better focus over the next several forecast packages. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions generally expected with brief restrictions possible again this morning. Satellite imagery showing mainly convective debris cirrus clouds over the region. Generally south to southeast winds around 5 knots should gradually wane to less than 5 knots during the predawn hours. Abundant low level moisture in place will set the stage for another round of possible predawn stratus/fog. Guidance continues to indicate a brief period of stratus developing during the 08-10z time frame across the eastern Midlands and spreading northwestward possibly impacting all terminals. Will continue to show VFR prevailing conditions with tempo to IFR cigs and vsbys 09z-13z. Any restrictions should return to VFR by 14z with southerly winds picking up through the day to around 5 to 7 knots by 15z and closer to 10 knots after 21z. Little chance for any convection on Monday given strengthening upper ridging. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture may result in brief restrictions at the terminals due to low clouds and/or fog each day this week. Rain chances increase towards the end of next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EC AVIATION...23  701 FXUS62 KMHX 180647 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 247 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes with this update. Updated aviation discussion for 18/06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal to near-record high temperatures and rain-free conditions to continue through mid-week. 2) A frontal system approaches the area late week, bringing the next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Notably warm low-level thicknesses beneath anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above to well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through the middle of the week. While well above normal temperatures are expected, temperatures look to stay just shy of records. It may be close across the coastal plain, though. Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging aloft should tend to suppress convective activity outside of perhaps a rogue shower or thunderstorm where convergence is maximized along the seabreeze (Albemarle Sound/NRN OBX vicinity). Still, probs of this occuring are low enough to keep out of the forecast with this update. KEY MESSAGE 2...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break down some late-week and into the weekend. This should allow a front to drop south into the Thursday into Friday. There continues to be some uncertainty regarding whether or not the front fully makes it through ENC, whether it stalls, or whether it lifts quickly back north as a warm front. Given the strength of the ridge, it stands to reason that the front will struggle to get fully through ENC, and the forecast reflects this scenario. Then, ridging may try to make a comeback late in the weekend, which would favor the front lifting back north as a warm front by early next week. Based on the above, increasing moisture and instability along the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms. Probabilistic guidance shows a solid chance of 0.25"- 0.75" each day from Thursday into the weekend. However, it should be noted that those amounts will be highly dependent on the evolution of the frontal zone. Initially when the front drops into the area, there may be just enough flow aloft to support some thunderstorm organization and perhaps a marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. Machine learning and analog guidance support this potential as well. However, no one day stands out as having a higher risk of severe thunderstorms. Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are noted with high pressure ridge centered offshore extending into the Mid-Atlantic this evening. Chances build for sub-VFR CIG/VIS through the early morning hours. VFR expected after sunrise through the day, before a more likely round of sub-VFR conditions takes place Monday night/Tuesday morning. Steady S'rly winds will gradually ease through the early morning bringing the potential for low stratus/ground fog. We still remain mixed with sustained winds around 5 kts observed through much of the area. As we approach sunrise, chances for brief decoupling increase a tad, and this would be our window for any spotty sub-VFR conditions to initiate. If we do see ground fog it would likely spread from SW to NE starting at Duplin/Onslow county first. Short period of favorable conditions will make it difficult for fog to develop further north and east. With the winds, low stratus is a slightly more likely outcome but still kept TAFs VFR through the morning. Will monitor observations andmake amendments as needed once there is proof of sub-VFR conditions upstream. Generally clear skies today, with a shift in winds from SW to S associated with the daily seabreeze, gusting to 15-20 knots behind it. Tonight, chances for decoupling are higher, and solid low level moisture primes us for a fog/low stratus night. Outlook: A dry seabreeze pattern looks to continue through Wednesday. Beyond then, a frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... A summer-like pattern continues through the middle of the week, with a daily building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and evening as the thermal gradient tightens. This will especially be the case for the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby coastal waters within 20nm of the coast. This should also support periods of 3-5ft seas. Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the area late-week, then meander around the area through the upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front, with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the front. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms along the front. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RJ AVIATION...RJ MARINE...RJ  712 FXUS66 KMTR 180648 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1148 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1147 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions, especially across the North, East, and South Bay Mountains and the Santa Cruz Mountains through Monday - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday - Hazardous marine conditions expected through Monday - Elevated fire weather concerns continue through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1147 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (Tonight through Monday) An upper level low pressure system digs into the tri-state area of CO, UT, and WY by late Monday morning. We remain under the influence of the broader trough associated with it, leading to breezy offshore flow. North to northeast winds pick up tonight across the Santa Cruz Mountains, the interior North Bay Mountains, and the Eastern Santa Clara and East Bay Hills. Sustained wind speeds of 15 to 30 mph along with gusts up to 50 mph, though localized gusts up to 60 mph are expected for favored ridges, gaps, and passes. These winds will usher in drier air to the region as well, keeping the fire weather threat elevated for interior Bay Area and Central Coast locations. In terms of more every day hazards from the winds, impacts include, but are not limited to difficult driving, especially for high profile vehicles, downed tree limbs, the potential for power outages, and the possibility of loose or unsecured items being blown around. Winds begin to ease late Monday morning into the afternoon and will continue to decrease into the evening and overnight hours. Offshore winds should bring some warmer temperatures to the region, the 90s for the interior Bay Area valleys, the 60s to low 70s along the coast, and the mid 70s to low 80s for the Central Coast Valleys. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1147 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (Tuesday through next Sunday) Upper level troughing looks to hold just west of the Desert Southwest and into southern CA Tuesday into Wednesday, leaving us with teetering between quasi-zonal and barely trough-y. Weak offshore lingers at least over the interior mountain ranges through Tuesday into Wednesday, with onshore flow trying to make a diurnally driven push each afternoon/evening. During this time high pressure just to the west of us (over the eastern Pacific) builds, pushing towards the coast mid week. The upper level trough begins to meander south to southwest of southern California late week. This should bring a return of onshore flow to the region and perhaps the marine layer. Current guidance suggests we could see a 500ft marine layer return by Wednesday, with a 1000-1200ft marine layer by Thursday and Friday. Will need to keep an eye on this as it will affect how temperatures pan out. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 936 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of haze being observed at HAF. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period; however, haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Strong and gusty northerly/offshore winds will prevail tonight with onshore flow returning tomorrow afternoon. Low level wind shear (LLWS) is expected through tomorrow morning. The 18Z end time is pessimistic with most LLWS activity expected to occur when the atmosphere is decoupled overnight until it recouples tomorrow morning, probably closer to 15Z. LLWS is primarily expected between FL015 and FL020 with speeds of 35-45 knots out of the north/northeast. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with gusty northerly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Strong and gusty northerly winds are expected through themorning before backing to become onshore tomorrow afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY and VFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Diurnal winds are expected through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 936 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Hazardous conditions are expected tonight before improving tomorrow. Strong northerly breezes with widespread gale force gusts and rough to very rough seas are expected tonight. Conditions will slowly begin to improve tomorrow as winds diminish and seas abate. Conditions will remain hazardous to small craft throughout the week, especially for the northern outer waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 443 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026 Strong and gusty north to northwest winds continue to affect the region, shifting slightly into Sunday afternoon, and becoming north to northeast. Expect peak gusts greater than 30 mph for most areas, with around 45 to 55 mph along through gaps and passes, and across higher terrain. Daytime humidity retentions loos to stay around 10- 25% across the interior regions and higher peaks, with limited overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early Monday before diminishing. Humidities will be slow to recover into the work week as a light offshore flow will continue to affect the district. && .BEACHES... Issued at 140 AM PDT Sat May 16 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PDT Monday for CAZ006-505-509- 530. Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for CAZ504-512-514-515. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0- 10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  761 FXUS61 KAKQ 180650 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. Pushed best rain chances slightly farther back in time Wed night/early Thu. Increased highs slightly for Wednesday into the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values likely remain close to the air temperature. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area. 2) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 250 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a summer-like heat and continued dry conditions for the first half of the week. Widespread low-mid 90s are expected inland each day, with lower 90s closer to the immediate coast due to H85 temps maxing out between 18-20 deg C, deep mixing, and continued low-level SSW flow. Temps will be similar each day, perhaps increasing a degree or so each day, culminating with the warmest day of the week on Wednesday. The strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temps. The downside to that point is that limited moisture return and downslope flow aloft will also likely maintain dry wx across the region at least into Wed afternoon. By Wed afternoon, upper heights begin to fall Wednesday afternoon and evening, as a cold front approaches from our NW. Showers and storms should develop to our northwest ahead of the boundary Wed afternoon, focused mainly on the pre-frontal lee trough. Given a gradual slowing trend in recent model guidance, it appears much of the convection most likely stays north and west of the RIC Metro Wed evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen to SE ridge farther south of the area, while also allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. While there remain model differences, the previously referenced cold front looks to slowly drop south across the area on Thursday. The front looks to linger across the area Thu night into Friday, and may move back north of the area late Friday- Friday night. With the front moving south of the area on Thursday, expect a cooler, cloudy day with mainly stratiform rain/drizzle Thu and Thu night, though it is possible the warm sector could linger a bit later into Thu across extreme SE portions of the area, allowing for few rumbles of thunder. Temps may struggle to get out of the lower 60s on Thursday and Friday (especially N/NE) as cool high pressure wedges down into the region. While the Thursday forecast is a bit higher confidence with the front dropping into the region, the temperature forecast on Friday and especially Saturday remains highly uncertain, and depends on the exact position of the front. LREF continues to feature model spread in 2m temperatures of ~12-15 deg F for Friday across much of the area! While some uncertainty lingers into Saturday, especially inland, it does appear as if the wedge airmass erodes quickly, as the parent high exits to the east and the front lifting back north of the local area into the upcoming weekend. Some additional isolated to scattered showers and a few storms (along with warmer temps) are possible Sat/Sun, but by no means does the holiday weekend look to be a washout. Gradual warming is expected as we head into early next week, as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies early next week. As for precipitation amounts, ensemble (EPS/GEPS/GEFS) probabilities for at least 0.5" of 48-hour total rainfall for the Wed night-Fri Night period still hover around or just above 50-70% across the entire CWA. However, it is hard to stay as optimistic as ensemble/NBM guidance, given that 1) a potentially unfavorable FROPA timing for convection (Model timing with the front is even later into Wed night/early Thu. Wednesday's convection looks likely to be focused to our NNW, with Thursday's heavier rainfall potentially to be suppressed to our south) and 2) several recent rain events have underperformed with respect to Day 3-5 model/ensemble forecasts. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions currently across area terminals look to prevail through the 06z/17 TAF period, as high pressure remains anchored offshore. Aside from some SCT high clouds this morning, mainly clear across the area today. Winds remain light ~5-8 kt out of the SSW, backing to the SSE this afternoon ~10 kt with occasional gusts to ~15 kt. Outlook...VFR conditions expected through midweek, as high pressure remains in control. South/southwest winds each afternoon may gust to 15-20kt each day through Wed. Next chance of rain not expected until late Wed or Thursday. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. - A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions. Expansive high pressure remains parked across the western Atlantic and extends across the Southeast. Winds remain out of the SW at generally 10 to 15 kt across the local waters. Seas are 2-3 ft across the coastal waters and 1 ft or less in the Bay and rivers (1- 2 ft at the mouth of the Bay). Through mid-week, high pressure will remain parked across the western Atlantic in a typical summertime Bermuda High configuration. Winds remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late-afternoon nearshore seabreeze. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish through the overnight. These surges will be relatively brief and likely will not require any SCAs. Expect generally benign marine conditions to prevail through at least midweek. The next cold front looks to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief marginal SCA conditions are possible and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend. && .CLIMATE... As of 145 AM Monday... Record High Temps for 5/18 - 5/20 Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 95 (1962) 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 95 (1877) 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 96 (1911) 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 93 (1987) 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/18- 5/20 Record Record Record High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 72 (2015) 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 75 (1995) 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 71 (1953) 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 73 (1995) 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM AVIATION...AC/MAM MARINE...NB CLIMATE...MAM  811 FXUS62 KMLB 180651 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 251 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Isolated to scattered shower and storm development is forecast each afternoon across east central Florida through this week. - A Moderate HeatRisk is forecast to gradually spread across east central Florida late week and into the weekend due to warm temperatures; adequate hydration and breaks from the heat will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors. - High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at ALL central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Today-Tonight...Ridging over the western Atlantic maintains a ridge axis north of Florida, across the Southeast US today. Easterly winds prevail, increasing to around 15 mph this afternoon as the sea breeze develops, with wind gusts 20-25 mph. Rain chances begin to increase slightly south of Orlando (20-30%), as PWATs build from <1" to up to 1.4-1.6" by late afternoon. However, a dominant east coast sea breeze will continue to keep the highest PoPs confined to the western half of the peninsula. While moisture increases today, lingering dry air in the mid- levels maintains DCAPE values near 900-1000 J/kg across southern portions of the forecast area. Therefore, though this will discourage updraft development overall, a few strong wind gusts near 50 mph cannot be ruled out in any storms. 500 mb temperatures near -10 C could also lead to small hail. Peak chances will occur this afternoon, though a few to scattered showers and a storm or two will remain possible along the coast overnight as cells develop over the Atlantic and drift onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast. Highs in the upper 80s along the coast rise into the lower 90s over the interior. Warm overnight lows in the 70s will remain near 80 along the coast. Tuesday-Monday...High pressure remains off of the eastern US seaboard through the weekend and into early next week. The ridge axis remains well north of Florida, helping to fend off a cold front mid to late week. Meanwhile, an upper level low lingers near to north of the Bahamas. It's essentially a persistence forecast through the period, as onshore flow continues to prevail. The only changes are a slight shift to predominantly SE flow from E this weekend and an increase in moisture during the same timeframe. Therefore, expect isolated to scattered showers and storms each day through the end of the work week. A prevailing easterly sea breeze will increase winds to around 15 mph each afternoon, with gusts 20-25 mph. The daily sea breeze collision will favor the far interior, if not western half of the peninsula. Thus, that is where the highest rainfall chances are for the afternoons and into the evening hours. However, could see overnight showers and perhaps a storm drift onshore each night, mainly along the Treasure Coast, as they develop over the Atlantic waters. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels will inhibit updraft development, but could lead to a few strong wind gusts (~50 mph) in any storms that manage to develop, especially along the collision. Models are in good agreement that a slug of moisture (PWATs 1.7-1.8") will overspread the peninsula along SE flow late in the period. PoPs respond accordingly, increasing from 30-50% to 50-70% for Memorial Day Weekend. However, still plenty of time to watch how things unfold. Regardless, high temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90 this week, while onshore flow keeps lows in the 70s, possibly near 80 along the immediate coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 High pressure remains offshore from the eastern US coast through the work week, with the ridge axis well north of the local area. Thus, onshore flow will continue through the period, increasing to around 10-15 kts each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions, with the exception of this evening into Tuesday morning, when winds across the offshore waters increase to 15-20 kts and seas build to 5 ft. Otherwise, seas 2-4 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each day, though onshore flow will prevent any drift back towards the east coast. Instead, the best chances for the Atlantic waters are expected during the evening and overnight hours, when cells may occasionally drift onshore. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 137 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR through the period. East winds increase to 12-15 kts during the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Most terminals remain dry, although VCSH is mentioned at FPR/SUA after 12Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 High pressure remains over the western Atlantic through this week, with the ridge axis well north of the local area. Onshore flow will prevail, increasing to 10 to 15 mph, with gusts 20 to 25 mph, each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon, with moisture increasing into the weekend. While onshore flow will keep most of the area well above any RH concerns, min RH west of Orlando could fall to between 45 to 50% during the heat of the day through much of the work week. Conditions will be fire sensitive in the afternoons, due to breezy winds and occasional lightning strikes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 75 87 74 / 0 10 20 10 MCO 89 73 89 73 / 20 10 30 0 MLB 86 77 86 77 / 20 20 20 10 VRB 86 76 87 76 / 30 20 30 10 LEE 91 72 90 72 / 10 0 30 0 SFB 90 73 89 72 / 10 10 30 0 ORL 90 73 89 73 / 10 10 30 0 FPR 86 76 86 75 / 30 20 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wishard AVIATION...Law  794 FXUS63 KEAX 180650 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 150 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active weather pattern continues this week. - Strong to severe storms will be possible early Monday morning as complex of storms builds south weakening with time. Main threats will be damaging straight line winds and a short lived tornadoes- especially across northwest Missouri. - Additional severe storms are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning as a cold front builds south across the region. Large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes and flooding are all possible with this round of thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A very active stretch of weather is expected to continue across the region with a slow moving cold front expected to be the focus for rounds of thunderstorm development. Early this afternoon, a pair of supercells developed near the front in north central Nebraska lifting northeast into southeast South Dakota along the front. Warn on forecast and CAMs are largely in decent agreement that storms will try to build south with time, though there is a bit of a cap that developing updrafts will have to work around. Convergence on along the front is expected to increase this evening as 30-50 knot low level jet develops in the open warm sector from central Texas into central and eastern Kansas. Subtle short wave across northern Kansas this afternoon is expected to lift northeast and aid in thunderstorm development along the front this evening. Storms will be developing in a fairly volatile environment with 2000-2500 J/kg of ML CAPE and 30-40 knots of bulk shear. As storms evolve into a line/ complex, they are expected to leave the cold front behind extending from central-eastern KS into central Iowa. 0-3 km helicity is currently 200-300 m2/s2, but as the low level jet increases, 0-1 km helicity is expected to increase over 300 m2/s2. Therefore, as the developing MCS builds south into northwest Missouri expect a tornado threat along with damaging wind threat. As MCS builds south of highway 36, expected storms to become outflow dominant with strait line winds becoming the primary threat and weakening in time as the complex works farther south. Upper level jet streak is expected to round the base of the upper level trough tonight and eject into the plains tomorrow aiding to strong wind shear. Remaining front may reorient slightly as main shortwave in upper level trough rounds the base of the trough and surface low develops in western KS progressing northeast along the front throughout the day. Volatile environment is expected to develop on Monday ahead of the front with 3500-4000 J/kg of SB CAPE and 0-6 km effective shear of 30-35 knots. Storms are expected to develop along the front in eastern KS quickly growing upscale into a cyclone/developing MCS that is expected to build southeast through the evening hours. All hazards are expected with this complex of storms including damaging winds, large hail, flooding and tornadoes. Have expanded the flood watch across north central Missouri south, and may need to continue the trend tonight to include the KC metro, but didn't get too aggressive since the storms tonight are expected to be fairly progressive with expected rainfall expected to be an inch or less in most locations. With that said though, flash flood guidance is very low in locations that received copious amounts of rain last night. Precipitable water ahead of the front is expected to climb to 1.75-2.00" and with deep warm cloud processes. Cooler and drier conditions are expected in the wake of the frontal passage Tuesday into Wednesday; however, additional precipitation is possible late week as a trough develops across the Northern Plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is moving through the region this early morning, with showers and thunderstorms likely to continue at the terminals through 12z to 14z this morning. Another round of thunderstorms is likely to impact STJ starting around 2z Tuesday and the KC metro terminals by around 4z Tuesday. VFR conditions (broken cloud deck around 4 kft) should generally continue through most of the period, but brief periods of MVFR CIGs will be possible as well as MVFR VIS during periods of heavier rain. Winds will briefly turn northerly with the MCS moving through, but should return to southerly within a few hours, with sustained winds on the order of 15 to 20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MOZ001>007-011>016- 020>024-028>032-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...BMW  763 FXUS63 KJKL 180650 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 250 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through Tuesday afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast late Tuesday into Tuesday night, then persist through next weekend. - The switch to a wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings and produces a highly-beneficial, widespread wetting rainfall. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 Seasonably hot and dry weather is expected into Tuesday as the area resides on the western/northwestern periphery of a strong cut-off mid-level high situated over the Carolinas, a narrow westward extension of the Bermuda High. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s both days, with an increase in high clouds Tuesday as a cold front begins to move toward the area. Low-end PoPs are introduced Tuesday afternoon for some areas from the west, but a clear trigger for the marginal instability that is likely to exist at that time is not readily apparent giving the continued warm mid-level temperatures through early evening Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 249 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 The long term forecast period opens on the precipice of a pattern change. A series of shortwave disturbances moving around the northwestern periphery of the previous days' amplified SE CONUS ridging will gradually work to break this ridge down. As this happens, flow in the lower half of the column adopts a more southwesterly orientation. This translates to increased moisture return and increasing sky cover into Tuesday night. A frontal boundary arrives from the northwest on Tuesday night, and its forcing should be sufficient to spark additional showers and storms. The question is - how does the thermodynamic environment look ahead of this feature? Given the boundary's nocturnal arrival in our portion of the Commonwealth, temperatures and instability *should* be at their diurnal cycle minimum. However, the persistence of SW low level flow and the antecedent warmth will leave Tuesday night's surface temperature insulated well above climatological averages. Expect lows to remain above the 60 degree mark, with some of the warmer ridgetops potentially hovering around 70. Depending on the amount of sky cover present around sunset, valley locales could thermally decouple and experience efficient radiational cooling. This could yield a scenario in which upstream convection becomes elevated above a more stable boundary layer in the valleys once it reaches our CWA's western escarpment. In other words, we are on QLCS graveyard watch for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Regardless of the strength of this convection, it will provide some highly beneficial widespread rainfall to eastern Kentucky. There is a 65-75% chance for at least a quarter of an inch of rain in the 24 hour period ending at 8pm Wednesday across the entire forecast area. The greatest chances and the greatest storm total QPF will fall across the Cumberland River Basin, which is also subsequently where some of the most impactful drought is also in place in the state - so any precipitation will be well received. While the boundary has trended a little bit more progressive with this morning's forecast guidance suite and storm total QPF has ticked a bit down, the boundary will struggle to fully push into the ridging in the SE CONUS. It is poised to stall out in the Tennessee Valley by midweek, and thus the southern half of the commonwealth will see repeated rain chances through the end of the period. Given these trends, Wednesday's Marginal (Level 1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook was trimmed down to just the Lake Cumberland region with the afternoon update. The entire Cumberland River Basin remains outlooked in a Marginal ERO for Thursday, as that boundary looks quite stubborn. Widespread, significant flash flooding is still not the most likely forecast solution, but areas where multiple rounds of thunderstorms persist for multiple days will need to be monitored closely as the ground progressively saturates. Again, this will likely be more beneficial than anything for the rain deficit in this region. On the north side of the boundary, post-frontal winds will work to advect a cooler and drier airmass into portions of the area. Northern portions of the forecast area should cool into the upper 70s on Wednesday, and more recent guidance suggests that Wednesday's MaxT grids could actually trend downward in future forecast packages. Temperatures then cool to the 70s area-wide on Thursday. Unfortunately this reset back to cooler weather is short-lived. The same boundary that stalled to our south will then lift back north as a warm front on Friday, leaving much of eastern KY in the warm and unstable sector through the weekend as another surface low passes across the Ohio Valley. In addition to more warm air advection, it will also advect moisture into the region, resulting in heightened rain chances from Friday through Sunday. This second, potentially more active pattern bears watching for agricultural and hydrological interests, though. The LREF Grand Ensemble resolves a 70-90% chance of at least 1 inch of precipitation across the entire CWA by Saturday night, with more expected on Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 A bit of valley fog will likely affect some locations with IFR or worse conditions late tonight and early Monday morning, but it is not expected to affect any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will hold through the period along with winds less than 10 kts generally from the south through 12z-14z. However, LLWS likely impacting western sites will gradually diminish from south to north through the overnight. Southwest winds at 6 to 12 kts sustained develop between 14z-16z, with max gusts reaching as high as around 20 kts in the afternoon during peak heating, before diminishing significantly again toward sunset. Some models develop marginal south-southwesterly LLWS again briefly in the mid to late evening, but with low confidence, and with it appearing to be very transitory if it does occur, will opt to leave this out of TAFs for now. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JMW/MARCUS AVIATION...CMC  927 FXUS61 KLWX 180653 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 253 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes were made to the current forecast package. Very hot conditions today and Tuesday with widespread thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near record warmth with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over the mountains today and Tuesday. 2) A strong cold front brings widespread rain and thunderstorm chances on Wednesday, followed by much cooler and showery conditions toward the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Near record warmth with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over the mountains today and Tuesday. It's a very hot start to the workweek as upper level ridging strengthens over the region. After a little patchy fog to start, expect temperatures to quickly climb from the 60s this morning well into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. This will mark one of the hottest days so far this season although even hotter conditions can be expected Tuesday as the upper level ridge peaks over the region. Skies will trend mostly sunny to partly cloudy today with mostly dry conditions expected. The one exception will be over the Potomac Highlands and Alleghenies where showers and thunderstorms look to bubble later this afternoon into the early evening hours (2-8pm). Storm coverage will be isolated in nature given the lack of a direct lifting mechanism. Hi-res CAMS show good continuity in regards to convective development that will be fueled by ample instability, steep low level lapse rates, and marginal shear. MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg, DCAPE values of 1000-1300 J/kg, and enough mid-level flow (20-30 kt) will provide some organization to any cold pools that develop. This supports forecast soundings with inverted V profiles indicative of damaging winds which aligns with several hi - res model members suggesting gusts of 40-50 kts on any storms that form. The corridor of concern appears to be from Petersburg/Elkins, WV northeastward toward Cumberland, MD/Martinsburg, WV. Any thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish through the evening hours with dry conditions and areas of patchy fog. Don't expect too much relief from the heat tonight with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Even hotter conditions can be expected Tuesday with highs well into the low to mid 90s. A few upper 90s cannot be ruled out across the urban corridor and down to the south across the central VA Piedmont given the strengthened ridge peaking overhead and dry air at the surface. An isolated shower or t-storm remains possible over the mountains, although most will see nothing given the heightened ridge squashing anything overhead. Temperatures cool slightly Wednesday with increasing cloud cover as a cold front approaches the region. Highs will still push into the 90s along with increasing humidity. Even with that said, the combination of heat and humidity will remain below heat headline criteria through the period. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings widespread rain and thunderstorm chances on Wednesday, followed by much cooler and showery conditions toward the end of the week. A strong area of low pressure moves through the Northeast on Wednesday, with a cold front extending down the East Coast that will bring widespread rain and thunderstorm chances to the Mid-Atlantic in the afternoon/evening. While the center low will be well north of us, the timing of the front aligning with the diurnal cycle and the high temperatures seen at the start of the week could still contribute towards some thunderstorm development in the region. Potential severity at this time still ranges widely--NCAR's AI NWP Convective HazardsForecast currently has our region outlined in its 45%-60% probability for severe weather to occur, while CSU's medium- range probabilities ranks the severe threat much lower. Regardless, this front will likely result in widespread showers at a minimum as well as a sharp drop in temperatures seen later in the week. Highs on Thursday will range in the upper 60s and low 70s, a marked shift from the mid-90s expected earlier in the week. Lingering rain showers may still be moving out of the area by Thursday morning, while a meandering front to the south could bring a few additional rain showers on Friday. Temperatures begin to increase again going into the weekend, as a warm front meanders through the region Saturday. Upper-level zonal flow slow transitions to UL ridging by the end of the weekend, indicating a potential decrease in rain chances going into the start of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue across the terminals through Wednesday morning as high pressure strengthens offshore. South/southwesterly winds return Monday and Tuesday gusting between 15 to 20 kts during the afternoon and evening hours. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will occur each afternoon although coverage will be spotty in nature mainly at terminals along and west of a line from KMRB, KHGR, KFDK, to KEKN. Elsewhere confidence remains low given the lack of a lifting mechanism and strengthening high pressure overhead. Sub-VFR restrictions return at times Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front brings widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. Winds will remain out of the southwest ahead of the front before shifting back to the north and northwest Thursday. Some low CIGS may hang on through Wednesday night before lifting Thursday as the front sits south of the region. Periodic rain showers moving through the region on Thursday and Friday could bring additional sub- VFR periods at terminals towards the end of the week. Wind gusts could reach 15-20 knots on Thursday before gradually decreasing. Northerly winds shift east-southeast by Friday night. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA level winds continue through midday with SCA southerly channeling over the bay and lower tidal Potomac this afternoon and evening. Winds will drop briefly back below sub-SCA levels tonight before additional SCAs are needed due to channeling Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest with gusts up to 20 kts today and Tuesday. Winds may near low-end SCA levels in south to southwesterly flow on Wednesday, and then again in northerly flow on Thursday. SMWs appear possible Wednesday into Wednesday night as thunderstorms move over the waters. Small Craft Advisories are likely during the day Thursday & Friday as winds gust up to 15-20 knots, growing calmer overnight. Winds drop below SCA thresholds Friday night. Northerly winds shift easterly by Friday morning. && .CLIMATE... Here are some daily temperature records during the May 18-20, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***MONDAY, MAY 18TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1877) 72F (2015) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (1987)! 68F (2015)! Baltimore (BWI) 97F (1962) 70F (2017) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 75F (2017) Martinsburg (MRB) 96F (1911) 66F (2015)! Charlottesville (CHO) 95F (1962)+ 73F (1911) Annapolis (NAK) 95F (1962)+ 69F (1953)+! Hagerstown (HGR) 93F (1962) 71F (2017) ***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1997)+ 72F (2015)! Washington-Dulles (IAD) 92F (1997)+! 66F (2017)+! Baltimore (BWI) 98F (1962) 75F (1877) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F (1962) 78F (1962) Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1911) 69F (1996)! Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (1962) 72F (1997) Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1962) 71F (1911)! Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 69F (2017)+! ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019) Baltimore (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+ Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+ Martinsburg (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998) Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996) Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898) Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>534-537>543. && $$ DISCUSSION...KJP/EST/SRT AVIATION...EST/SRT MARINE...EST/SRT  057 FXUS61 KAKQ 180656 CCA AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED National Weather Service Wakefield VA 256 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. Pushed best rain chances slightly farther back in time Wed night/early Thu. Increased highs slightly for Wednesday into the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values likely remain close to the air temperature. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area. 2) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 250 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a summer-like heat and continued dry conditions for the first half of the week. Widespread low-mid 90s are expected inland each day, with lower 90s closer to the immediate coast due to H85 temps maxing out between 18-20 deg C, deep mixing, and continued low-level SSW flow. Temps will be similar each day, perhaps increasing a degree or so each day, culminating with the warmest day of the week on Wednesday. The strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temps. The downside to that point is that limited moisture return and downslope flow aloft will also likely maintain dry wx across the region at least into Wed afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon, upper heights begin to fall ahead of a cold front approaching the region from our NW. Showers and storms should develop to our northwest ahead of the boundary by midday Wednesday, focused mainly on the pre-frontal lee trough. Given a gradual slowing trend in recent model guidance, it appears much of the convection most likely stays north and west of the RIC Metro Wed evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen to SE ridge, while also allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. While there remain model differences, the previously referenced cold front looks to slowly drop south across the area on Thursday. The front looks to linger across the area Thu night into Friday, and may move back north of the area late Friday-Friday night. With the front moving south of the area on Thursday, expect a cooler, cloudy day with mainly stratiform rain/drizzle Thu and Thu night, though it is possible the warm sector could linger a bit later into Thu across extreme SE portions of the area, allowing for few rumbles of thunder. Temps may struggle to get out of the lower 60s on Thursday and Friday (especially N/NE) as cool high pressure wedges down into the region. While the Thursday forecast is a bit higher confidence with the front dropping into the region, the temperature forecast on Friday and especially Saturday remains highly uncertain, and depends on the exact position of the front. LREF continues to feature model spread in 2m temperatures of ~12-15 deg F for Friday across much of the area! While some uncertainty lingers into Saturday, especially inland, it does appear as if the wedge airmass erodes quickly, as the parent high exits to the east and the front lifts back north of the local area into the upcoming weekend. Some additional isolated to scattered showers and a few storms (along with warmer temps) are possible Sat/Sun, but by no means does the holiday weekend look to be a washout. Gradual warming is expected as we head into early next week, as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies early next week. As for precipitation amounts, ensemble (EPS/GEPS/GEFS) probabilities for at least 0.5" of 48-hour total rainfall for the Wed night-Fri Night period still hover around or just above 50-70% across the entire CWA. However, it is hard to stay as optimistic as ensemble/NBM guidance, given that 1) a potentially unfavorable FROPA timing for convection (Model timing with the front is even later into Wed night/early Thu. Wednesday's convection looks likely to be focused to our NNW, with Thursday's heavier rainfall potentially to be suppressed to our south) and 2) several recent rain events have underperformed with respect to Day 3-5 model/ensemble forecasts. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions currently across area terminals look to prevail through the 06z/17 TAF period, as high pressure remains anchored offshore. Aside from some SCT high clouds this morning, mainly clear across the area today. Winds remain light ~5-8 kt out of the SSW, backing to the SSE this afternoon ~10 kt with occasional gusts to ~15 kt. Outlook...VFR conditions expected through midweek, as high pressure remains in control. South/southwest winds each afternoon may gust to 15-20kt each day through Wed. Next chance of rain not expected until late Wed or Thursday. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. - A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions. Expansive high pressure remains parked across the western Atlantic and extends across the Southeast. Winds remain out of the SW at generally 10 to 15 kt across the local waters. Seas are 2-3 ft across the coastal waters and 1 ft or less in the Bay and rivers (1- 2 ft at the mouth of the Bay). Through mid-week, high pressure will remain parked across the western Atlantic in a typical summertime Bermuda High configuration. Winds remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late-afternoon nearshore seabreeze. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish through the overnight. These surges will be relatively brief and likely will not require any SCAs. Expect generally benign marine conditions to prevail through at least midweek. The next cold front looks to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief marginal SCA conditions are possible and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend. && .CLIMATE... As of 145 AM Monday... Record High Temps for 5/18 - 5/20 Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 95 (1962) 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 95 (1877) 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 96 (1911) 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 93 (1987) 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/18- 5/20 Record Record Record High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 72 (2015) 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 75 (1995) 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 71 (1953) 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 73 (1995) 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM AVIATION...AC/MAM MARINE...NB CLIMATE...MAM