755 FXUS62 KGSP 181101 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 701 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to precip amounts and temperatures late in the week. The aviation discussion was updated to reflect the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A summer-like pattern will continue through mid-week, with above normal temperatures and little chance of deep convection until Wednesday afternoon as a front approaches. 2. A cold front brings better rain chances for the latter part of the week and into the weekend, but drought relief will be limited. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: A summer-like pattern will continue through mid-week, with above normal temperatures and little chance of deep convection until Wednesday afternoon as a front approaches. As advertised, we are still on track for our Summer preview for the next two to three days as a building mid/upper ridge/anticyclone over the East Coast supports a Bermuda High. No big surprises here in the new guidance. Temps will generally run 7-12 degrees above normal, with highs pushing the lower 90s in many spots east of the mtns, but not nearly enough to challenge records. Still no indication that dewpoint will be high enough to make apparent temps any warmer than air temps. The CAMs keep the fcst area dry today and hold very little promise for mountain convection on Tuesday. Thus, we shall bake as if in an oven. By Wednesday, the upper anticyclone moves off to the east and a wave in the nrn stream will flatten out the eastern ridge, so a cold front is still expected to move toward the mtns from the OH Valley. The latest batch of models suggests this boundary will be farther away than expected, however, so the chances of getting any shower activity east of the mtns are poor. The new fcst will have a gradient in precip chance over the Escarpment Wednesday afternoon, with a strong diurnal signal, so Wednesday night looks quiet. This period is beyond the CAMs, so it is possible the precip chances might ultimately improve, especially if something gets organized to the west and moves in late in the day. Key message 2: A cold front brings better rain chances for the latter part of the week and into the weekend, but drought relief will be limited. The medium range part of the forecast remains something of a moving target because of uncertainty regarding the passage of the cold front and whether or not the boundary will ever truly move through the fcst area. Some of the guidance already starts to rebuild the eastern upper ridge on Friday into the weekend, which could lift whatever remnant there was back north as a warm front by Saturday. Either way, Thursday and Friday look...unsettled...so likely/categorical precip probs are still in order. Weak cold air damming remains apparent for Friday, maybe with a stronger signal than yesterday, but it would be brief as the parent high would move away Friday night and we'd get back into a warm sector for Saturday. So, after one more warm day on Thursday, temps cool down to something roughly five degrees below normal for Friday because of extensive clouds and some precip, then it's a return to normal for the rest of the fcst period. The weekend looks like above climo precip probs. For the time being, the chances of getting more than an inch of rain on any given day is low, but at least it looks like the drought would not get any worse through that period. The risk for severe storms appears to be low. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Continued VFR at all terminals over the next 24-36 hours. A few orphaned patches of VFR-level convective cloud debris were noted on satellite imagery over the mtns and Upstate SC. Otherwise, a light S wind will continue through mid/late morning. We should pop up a few stratocu with daytime heating. Deeper mixing this afternoon will raise wind a bit from the S to SW, but gusts are not yet indicated. More clear sky and variable wind is expected after sunset. Outlook: VFR to persist through mid-week, except perhaps in mountain valleys, where patchy morning fog/low stratus may develop each morning. An active cold front may bring restrictions associated with convective precip by late week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ PM  798 FXUS63 KJKL 181101 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 701 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through Tuesday afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast late Tuesday into Tuesday night, then persist through next weekend. - The switch to a wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings and produces a highly-beneficial, widespread wetting rainfall. && .UPDATE... Issued at 659 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 Made minor T/Td hourly updates in the very near term to reflect latest observations and latest trends. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 Seasonably hot and dry weather is expected into Tuesday as the area resides on the western/northwestern periphery of a strong cut-off mid-level high situated over the Carolinas, a narrow westward extension of the Bermuda High. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s both days, with an increase in high clouds Tuesday as a cold front begins to move toward the area. Low-end PoPs are introduced Tuesday afternoon for some areas from the west, but a clear trigger for the marginal instability that is likely to exist at that time is not readily apparent giving the continued warm mid-level temperatures through early evening Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 249 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 The long term forecast period opens on the precipice of a pattern change. A series of shortwave disturbances moving around the northwestern periphery of the previous days' amplified SE CONUS ridging will gradually work to break this ridge down. As this happens, flow in the lower half of the column adopts a more southwesterly orientation. This translates to increased moisture return and increasing sky cover into Tuesday night. A frontal boundary arrives from the northwest on Tuesday night, and its forcing should be sufficient to spark additional showers and storms. The question is - how does the thermodynamic environment look ahead of this feature? Given the boundary's nocturnal arrival in our portion of the Commonwealth, temperatures and instability *should* be at their diurnal cycle minimum. However, the persistence of SW low level flow and the antecedent warmth will leave Tuesday night's surface temperature insulated well above climatological averages. Expect lows to remain above the 60 degree mark, with some of the warmer ridgetops potentially hovering around 70. Depending on the amount of sky cover present around sunset, valley locales could thermally decouple and experience efficient radiational cooling. This could yield a scenario in which upstream convection becomes elevated above a more stable boundary layer in the valleys once it reaches our CWA's western escarpment. In other words, we are on QLCS graveyard watch for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Regardless of the strength of this convection, it will provide some highly beneficial widespread rainfall to eastern Kentucky. There is a 65-75% chance for at least a quarter of an inch of rain in the 24 hour period ending at 8pm Wednesday across the entire forecast area. The greatest chances and the greatest storm total QPF will fall across the Cumberland River Basin, which is also subsequently where some of the most impactful drought is also in place in the state - so any precipitation will be well received. While the boundary has trended a little bit more progressive with this morning's forecast guidance suite and storm total QPF has ticked a bit down, the boundary will struggle to fully push into the ridging in the SE CONUS. It is poised to stall out in the Tennessee Valley by midweek, and thus the southern half of the commonwealthwill see repeated rain chances through the end of the period. Given these trends, Wednesday's Marginal (Level 1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook was trimmed down to just the Lake Cumberland region with the afternoon update. The entire Cumberland River Basin remains outlooked in a Marginal ERO for Thursday, as that boundary looks quite stubborn. Widespread, significant flash flooding is still not the most likely forecast solution, but areas where multiple rounds of thunderstorms persist for multiple days will need to be monitored closely as the ground progressively saturates. Again, this will likely be more beneficial than anything for the rain deficit in this region. On the north side of the boundary, post-frontal winds will work to advect a cooler and drier airmass into portions of the area. Northern portions of the forecast area should cool into the upper 70s on Wednesday, and more recent guidance suggests that Wednesday's MaxT grids could actually trend downward in future forecast packages. Temperatures then cool to the 70s area-wide on Thursday. Unfortunately this reset back to cooler weather is short-lived. The same boundary that stalled to our south will then lift back north as a warm front on Friday, leaving much of eastern KY in the warm and unstable sector through the weekend as another surface low passes across the Ohio Valley. In addition to more warm air advection, it will also advect moisture into the region, resulting in heightened rain chances from Friday through Sunday. This second, potentially more active pattern bears watching for agricultural and hydrological interests, though. The LREF Grand Ensemble resolves a 70-90% chance of at least 1 inch of precipitation across the entire CWA by Saturday night, with more expected on Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 VFR conditions will hold through the period. Southwest winds at 6 to 12 kts sustained develop between 13z-16z, with max gusts reaching as high as around 20 kts in the afternoon during peak heating for northern/western sites, before diminishing significantly at all sites toward sunset. Some models develop marginal south-southwesterly LLWS again briefly in the mid to late evening, but with low confidence, and with it appearing to be very transitory if it does occur, will opt to leave this out of TAFs for now. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JMW/MARCUS AVIATION...CMC  650 FXUS63 KSGF 181100 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 600 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Moderate Risk (3 out of 4) for repeated rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall that may result in flash flooding this morning into the afternoon. Increasing confidence in a thunderstorm complex stalling into west central and central MO. A Flood Watch in effect for an area north of Interstate 44 towards the Highway 54 corridor. - A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this morning into the afternoon. Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts. - A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms overnight tonight into Tuesday. A line of thunderstorms expected to quickly move through the area, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. - Additional rainfall chances (30-50%) mid to late week along with cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 This Morning-This Afternoon: A thunderstorm complex is gradually sliding southeast this morning across portions of eastern KS and northwest MO. This complex has become outflow dominant in nature, with any severe potential limited to damaging wind gusts at this point. This complex is expected to continue to sink southeast into portions of west central and central MO by early this morning/near sunrise. The environment becomes less favorable for organized thunderstorms given the lack of sufficient wind shear into this area. However, there may be just enough (20 to 30 knots deep- layer) in the vicinity of MUCAPE (1500 to 2000 J/kg) to support a few strong to severe thunderstorm segments. Much of the activity becomes elevated in nature this morning. The primary risk would be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. SPC has a Marginal (1 of 5) to Slight (2 of 5) to capture this severe potential. Expectations are for this complex to stall by mid- morning in the general area north of Interstate 44 towards the Highway 54 corridor. This will be key to a rapidly increasing concern for heavy rainfall and flash flooding that will be discussed in more detail below. An additional severe potential occurs late this morning into the afternoon with redevelopment as a low- level jet persists over the area. CAMs depict scattered thunderstorms rapidly developing across southern MO and lifting towards the stalling complex. Confidence in this scattered development is low to medium given the strong CIN to the south. Nonetheless, any activity that does develop will pose the potential hazards may include hail to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. It is plausible some locations remain dry through this morning and afternoon across far southern MO, with PoPs 60-90% along and north of Interstate 44, falling off to 10-30% along the MO/AR border. Overall, there is still some subtle uncertainties remaining on how the mesoscale unfolds this morning and afternoon, and the true extent of the associated severe potential. As for the heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential, the attention is focused on the complex stalling into west central and central MO this morning. This environment is increasingly favorable for heavy rainfall to occur, with the complex slowing into this area thanks to very weak steering flow as seen with Corfidi vectors becoming west to east oriented at 5 knots or less. As moisture (PWATs 1.5 to 1.8 inches) continues to advect into the area, efficient rainfall rates are likely as repeated showers and thunderstorms occur over the same areas this morning into the afternoon. Guidance has trended into widespread agreement on this heavy rainfall, further increasing our confidence in heavy rainfall that will likely result in some areas of flash flooding today. The latest HREF Localized Probability Matched-Mean (LPMM) depicts a widespread corridor of 1 to 3 inches along Highway 54, with localized amounts approaching 4 to 6 inches. Given this trend and increasing confidence, a Flood Watch has been issued for portions of west central and central MO. This watch begins at 7 am this morning and runs through this evening. Further expansion in time and space may be warranted if needed. WPC has captured this heavy rainfall/flash flooding potential with an upgrade to a Moderate Excessive Rainfall Outlook (3 out of 4). There is some lingering uncertainty on how long this activity festers across the area into the afternoon/early evening, that will be best captured with trends through this morning. Tonight-Tuesday Morning: As we progress into tonight, the low-level jet will strengthen again as lift increases. Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/eastern KS and quickly grow upscale into a line of thunderstorms. Ensembles continue to depict the strongest lift and wind shear are focused north and west of the area where Enhanced to Moderate Severe Outlooks are present. Further to the southeast into our area, a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) is draped through the area. The most likely scenario is for the line of thunderstorms to gradually weaken as it pushes into southeast KS and west central MO overnight tonight. However, we do not want to downplay the uncertainty in the mesoscale, as just a bit more shear and instability may further fuel strong to severe thunderstorms in our area overnight into Tuesday morning. Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Additional hazards may include large hail up to the size of quarters and a brief tornado, though these are more focused across the north and western portions of the area as line enters the area overnight. The current speed of the front and associated line moving through the area are expected to be quick, with the front potentially clearing the area by mid Tuesday morning. If this quick moving scenario plays out, any severe potential on Tuesday afternoon would be nullified. Additionally, a progressive front would limit the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Overall, it is expected to be an active next 24 to 36 hours, with some lingering uncertainties in the mesoscale. Confidence has increased in the heavy rainfall and flash flooding this morning into the afternoon, in additional to a few scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Highs today reach into the lower to middle 80s, with dewpoints making it feel quite muggy in the upper 60s to near 70. Gusty southerly winds around 25 to 35 mph persist through today and tonight. By late tonight into early Tuesday morning, attention turns towards the quick moving line of thunderstorms with an additional severe potential. Continue to follow the forecast for updates. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Remainder of Tuesday: Behind the frontal passage, winds will turn out of northwest as cooler air gradually funnels into the region. Lows Tuesday night fall into the 50s to near 60. Wednesday-Thursday: Ensemble guidance suggests low rain chances (20-50%) lingering post- frontal into Wednesday, particularly across southern MO. Meanwhile, cooler temperatures prevail on Wednesday with highs topping out in the upper 60s. This pattern persists into Thursday, with additional rain chances (20-50%) into Thursday afternoon and night. Temperatures will gradually be on the rebound with subtle mid- level height rises. Next Weekend: The general pattern remains southwesterly flow, with additional shortwaves tracking through the region into next weekend. There is uncertainty on the exact timing and strength of these waves,that will be better resolved over the coming days. Nonetheless, carrying additional rain chances into next weekend. A warming trend returns into next weekend as well. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A thunderstorm complex is stalling out to north of the TAF sites this morning, with isolated showers developing across southern MO if the vicinity of a strong low-level jet. PROB30 group for isolated showers through this morning, before introducing thunderstorm chances late morning into the afternoon. Instances of MVFR to IFR flight conditions within any thunderstorms as a result of reduced visibilities and ceilings. TAF sites should become shower/storm free by late afternoon and evening, before a line of thunderstorms approaches towards 12Z on Tuesday morning. Mid to high level clouds persist through the period. Gusty south winds through today, with gusts around 20 to 30 knots. LLWS introduced overnight tonight around 40 to 50 knots. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Record High Temperatures: May 18: KSGF: 88/1962 KJLN: 90/1987 KVIH: 88/1996 KUNO: 89/2001 Record Warmest Low Temperatures: May 18: KSGF: 68/1996 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 66/2017 KVIH: 70/1996 May 19: KSGF: 69/2013 KJLN: 74/1996 KUNO: 70/1996 KVIH: 70/1996 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071- 078>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Perez CLIMATE...Burchfield  909 FXUS64 KCRP 181103 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 603 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 559 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts today and Tuesday, heat indices 100-110 - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning - Medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday night through the upcoming weekend. Total rainfall generally 1.5-3.0". - Dangerous swimming conditions with a moderate to high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 We'll start off with analyzing the current environment. Our latest 00Z sounding shows PWAT values right at 2.0" (99th percentile) while satellite earlier, depicted splotches of PWATs up to 2.2". Needless to say, we are near climatological max already when it comes to atmospheric moisture. Streaks of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms have flown by to the northeast from the southwest, oriented with the 500mb shortwave trough. We'll continue to see these streaks of showers and occasional thunderstorms through Tuesday before coverage and chances ramp up significantly. Rain chances ramp up to a medium (40-60%) chance Tuesday night as an inverted surface trough develops ahead of an approaching but dying cold front. However, convection earlier on in the day northward will likely develop outflow boundaries that can enhance storm's longevity as they move southward. Therefore, South Texas is in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of strong to severe storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the significant elevated instability, DCAPE, and moisture in place, primary threats are large hail and damaging winds at this time. A series of repeating mid-level shortwaves will pass over South Texas through this weekend as a more potent trough or cutoff mid- level low develops over northern Mexico and moves eastward into Texas. Near climatological max moisture in combination of these disturbances, will warrant a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms daily. Total rainfall through Saturday looks to range from around 1.50" along the coast to around 3.00" over northern counties from La Salle to Victoria counties. This is a good blend between the various long range ensembles. The GEFS lower along the coast of 1.00" but around 3.00" over the northern Nueces River Basin, the ECENS from 1.50 along the Rio Grande to near 3.5" over the Victoria Crossroads, and the GEM with a widespread 2.50-3.00". Due to these rain amounts, and locally higher up to 5", much of South Texas will be under a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding Tuesday night through Friday. We'll also need to monitor river levels as action to minor flood stage will likely occur across the state as upstream flow makes its way down in combination of additional heavy rains. Multiple rounds of rain will increase soil moisture and lead to more efficient runoff the longer we get into the event. Dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 70s and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to near 100, will bring a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts across South Texas today and Tuesday. Max heat indices will range from 100-110 with greatest impacts over the Brush Country where there will be fewer clouds in the afternoons. Persistent strong onshore flow with swell periods of 7-8 seconds warrants a high risk of rip currents, causing dangerous swimming conditions. These conditions will also lead to another threat for minor coastal flooding early this morning during high tide. We'll need to keep a close eye on webcams with how much wave runup we get, but confidence is low with the lack of buoy observations. Fun fact at Corpus Christi: Total precipitation of at least 2.0" from May 19th through May 23rd has occurred 11 out of the 139 years in the period of record, 7.9% of the time! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The MVFR cloud deck will continue through 14Z then begin to lift to VFR CIGs and continue through the afternoon. Due to the isolated nature of shower activity today, VCSH were added to all terminals, though more impacts to flight categories come this evening with any thunderstorm that develops off the higher terrain in northern Mexico. As such, a TEMPO group was added for KLRD. If this activity holds on as it moves through the Brush Country, it might bring a few periods of lower CIGs/VIS for KALI, though confidence is low for this. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly breeze will persist through Tuesday night. The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect through Tuesday morning for all waters due to sustained winds around 20 knots and frequent gusts to around 25 knots. Seas will also generally range from 5-7 feet. Southeasterly flow weakens to gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) Wednesday into this weekend. Low to medium rain chances begin Tuesday night through Wednesday night, then increase to a medium to high chance, 50-70%, Thursday into this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 No elevated fire weather conditions are expected through this week. Moisture will continue to increase, causing minimum relative humidity values to stay above 40%. Low rain chances through Tuesday, increase to a medium to high (40-80%) Tuesday night into this weekend && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 80 90 78 / 20 20 20 50 Victoria 91 78 91 75 / 20 20 20 50 Laredo 100 79 99 76 / 20 20 20 50 Alice 95 79 94 77 / 20 20 20 50 Rockport 90 80 89 79 / 20 20 20 50 Cotulla 99 79 98 74 / 20 20 20 50 Kingsville 93 80 91 77 / 20 20 20 50 Navy Corpus 88 81 87 80 / 20 20 20 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CDT today for TXZ345-442-443- 447. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...AE/82  873 FXUS64 KHUN 181102 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 602 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly in northeast Alabama Monday - Low to medium chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms returning late Tuesday, then medium to high chances (40-80%) for showers and thunderstorms each day, from Wednesday through next weekend && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 No major changes since the previous forecast update. Thunderstorm chances remain low (less than 10%) throughout the day with lack of support for strong storms. Highs are forecast to be above-normal, once again, with temperatures peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Breezy, southerly winds will provide some relief from the heat with gusts up to around 20 mph during the afternoon hours. Previous Discussion: For Monday, a plume of enhanced moisture on the western edge of the sub-tropical ridge will move a little further into AL, although highest moisture content is expected to be to our south. Nevertheless, a few showers/storms could develop particularly along the plume axis during peak heating in the afternoon. Vertical thermo and shear profiles are not supportive of any strong storm organization, with 0-6km bulk shear generally at or less than just 15 kts. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 From Monday night into Wednesday, the broad upr ridge will continue to hold sway across the Southeast, with deep SW-W flow remaining across the TN Valley. A trough in the Intermountain West into the North/Central Plains will remain nearly steady initially, but become increasingly positively tilted and deamplify as short waves round its base and move NEWRD. Essentially, the sub-tropical ridge will maintain dominance over much of the Southeast CONUS and westward into the Southern Plains, keeping the trough from advancing. However, a low-level boundary will make inroads towards the mid-South by mid-week, while SWRLY flow along the trough/ridge interface edges closer to the area. The result will be increased instability across our area with higher dew points and added dynamic forcing by late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase to low/medium during this period, with better chances in NW portions of the area closer to the better forcing. With a continued lack of deep layer shear, and modest thermo profiles, the activity will be more akin to general thunderstorm activity late Tuesday into Wednesday. Increased dew points will create warmer feeling conditions overall, but increased clouds and shower activity will make for lower max temperatures during the day especially on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 This pattern will continue largely unabated from Wednesday night into the weekend, with a broad summer-like subtropical ridge centered near Bermuda and deep SWRLY flow persisting across the TN Valley. A series of shortwaves are expected to ride along the trough/ridge interface across the region and bring bouts of increased shower/storm activity. Timing this is difficult, as the distinct nature of these shortwaves is difficult to discern in the model guidance. Nevertheless, increased instability during the daytime will certainly act to regulate chances for showers/storms during the period. Thermo profiles during the Thurs-Friday period do not appear to change significantly, with generally moist- adiabatic type profiles in the increasing deep/humid airmass. PWs climbing to near 1.7 inches and only modest CAPEs and weak-modest shear would suggest the largest threat may be due to any localized flash flooding that could result, especially with the prospect for slow-moving training storms. Shear may increase a little into the weekend, but still would characterize as modest at best. Overall, this is reminiscent of a warm, early summer pattern with highs mostly in the 80s and warm nights with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with southerly, breezy conditions up to 18 kts this afternoon. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....KDW LONG TERM....KDW AVIATION...HC  911 FXUS64 KLUB 181103 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 603 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 545 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Critical to extremely critical fire danger will exist Monday afternoon across much of the region. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and off the Caprock, then again along an overnight front Monday into Tuesday. - Much cooler Tuesday through Friday with daily afternoon shower and thunderstorms throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 An upper level shortwave trough digging through the Desert Southwest will set up near the Four Corners regions early Monday morning, before translating into the Southern Plains by late Monday afternoon. Thus leading to the continuation of southwest flow aloft across the area. Increased speeds aloft are expected by Monday morning the upper level low inches closer to the region, with speeds around 40 to 50 knots, and up to 60+ knots within the H5 jet. Additionally, mid-level winds will also increase and overspread the Caprock regions as notable H7 and H8 wind maxima set up near the South Plains while a surface lows sets up over the northern Texas Panhandle. This will promote eastward mixing of a sharpening dryline across the area Monday afternoon, setting up across our most eastern column of counties, while temperatures climb into the mid to upper 90s and lower triple digits as breezy to near windy southwest flow continues. Three hour MSLP changes around 3mb to 4mb suggest winds will become near and/or in excess of wind advisory level criteria with speeds around 25 to 35 mph with potential gusts to 50 mph not out of the question. A wind advisory is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains from noon through 8 PM CDT Monday. East of the boundary, low- level moisture will be more robust, with dewpoint temperatures progged in the 50s and 60s. These dewpoints combined with hot temperatures will support moderate to strong instability across the Rolling Plains with soundings depicting MLCAPE amounts around 1500 J/kg. While weak large scale ascent may limit overall storm coverage across the CWA, with better forcing for ascent residing to our north, isolated thunderstorms will still be possible late Monday afternoon and evening where localized surface convergence is maximized along the dryline before it mixes east out of the area. West of the dryline, hot temperatures along with breezy to wind southwest winds and low relative humidity values will support extremely critical fire danger. Especially on the Caprock were RFTIs of 7 to 8 appear likely with ERCs ranging from the 70th to 95th percentiles. These conditions will promote the rapid spread of wildfires if any fire starts initiate Monday afternoon. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 10 PM Monday. By Monday night, the upper trough will moves through the Plains region sending an associated cold front into the region as the surface high dives southward. Most CAMs keep this front north of the area through the short term period, with the front moving into northern portions of the FA around 05Z Tuesday. Given the faster progression of the front in recent guidance, there is a chance this front speeds up and enters portions of the area before midnight. Nonetheless, an additional chance for thunderstorms will exist along the frontal boundary, primarily across our most eastern column of counties. However much of this will be based on the amount of residual moisture that resides in our area during this time frame. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A much needed cool down is expected to start the extended forecast period as the cold front, previously mentioned above in the short term discussion, makes it's arrival into the Caprock regions. Most guidance has the cold front making its way through the southern portion of the FA just after daybreak Tuesday. As mentioned above, a chance for thunderstorms will exist along the frontal boundary, mainly across the Rolling Plains with chances waning through morning. Most precipitation chances will be dependent on the amount of moisture present during the time of the FROPA. If thunderstorms are able to develop, the potential for large hail will exist with forecast soundings depicting steep mid-leel lapse rates around 8 C/km and bulk shear magnitudes around 40 knots. Northerly winds will prevail through much of the morning Tuesday, before shifting more easterly Tuesday afternoon as the surface high shifts east and a surface low develops over central New Mexico. With a cooler airmass in place and upslope component to the winds will allow for much cooler highs Tuesday in the 70s and 80s. This easterly component to the winds will be maintained through much of the mid-week period, allowing for the cooler highs to remain in place through Thursday, before a modest warm-up begins to start the weekend. There remains a small window for a few showers and thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon and evening, as the stalled FROPA begins to retreat back northward closer to the region. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, but if this boundary retreats back into the southern portions of the FA Tuesday afternoon and evening we could see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. As for precipitation the remainder of the week, longwave troughing will encompass much of the western CONUS throughout the week, allowing for southwest flow to prevail over the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base of the trough while perturbations simultaneously track through the main flow. In addition to the upslope component to the winds allowing for increased moisture transport from the Gulf into the region may be enough for daily chances for shower and thunderstorm chances each afternoon Wednesday through Friday. Ensemble guidance is beginning to highlight the potential for heavy rainfall Wednesday, when we see the best forcing for ascent and increased low to mid-level moisture with PWATs well above the 90th percentile normal 9around an inch to an inch and a half) for this time of year. However, it is a bit too early to get into specifics given the lack of uniformity amongst model guidance at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR CIGs have moved over PVW and LBB and are encroaching upon CDS. It is likely that MVFR CIGs will move over CDS within the next hour or two. VFR conditions will return the the terminals by 15Z and prevail thereafter. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across much of the Caprock regions Monday afternoon. Breezy to low- end windy southwest winds are expected to increase to around 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph with the highest speeds fixated across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. As temperatures warm into the mid to upper 90s and lower triple digits, relative humidity values will begin to drop into the lower single digits during the afternoon. Across the Caprock is where we expect the highest threat for extremely critical fire danger to exist with RFTIs around 7 to 8. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM CDT Monday through 10 PM CDT Monday evening. A Wind Advisory is also in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains from noon till 8 PM CDT Monday. Do your part and avoid activities that may cause a spark to help prevent the rapid spread of wildfires. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>037-039>043. Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>031-033>036. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...51  950 FXUS64 KMAF 181104 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 604 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 601 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through Tuesday. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame. - Critical fire weather conditions expected for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. - Rain and storm chances increase (40-80% chances) by the middle to latter part of the week. We will be monitoring a few strong to severe storms each day. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns over locations east of the Pecos River Wednesday into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Another hot and windy day is expected across the region, particularly over southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas. Antecedent dry conditions combined with the dry air will make for critical fire weather conditions. More information on that can be found below in the fire weather discussion. Many locations will reach into the mid to upper 90s with a number of spots near the century mark. Winds will decay by tonight, but temperatures will only fall into the 60s and 70s. A cold front approaches the region by Tuesday morning and slowly stalls near the Pecos River Valley. The front and present dryline combine to increase storm chances across the eastern portions of the CWA. A few strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Depending on the timing and strength of the front, temperatures will be a touch cooler for most compared to today, though will still reach into the low to mid 90s. Highs in the 100s will be seen along the Rio Grande. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday night and into Wednesday sees an upper level disturbance move across from the west. This combined with the dryline moved further west will lead to higher rain chances across most of the region for Wednesday and into Thursday. Strong to severe storms will be possible on both days, but it remains to be seen what hazards these storms will contain and just how much rain will fall and where. Below normal temperatures will take hold from Wednesday through at least Saturday as easterly flow and a favorable upper level environment keep temperatures on the cool side for mid to late May. Low (10-20%) rain chances hold on from Friday and into the weekend particularly across the Davis Mountains and eastern portions of the CWA. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A few areas are seeing patchy low clouds lead to MVFR CIGs, but these conditions are too brief to include with this issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will hold through the day. Winds become gusty with speeds topping out between 20-30kts during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Have expanded the inherited Red Flag Warning to include most of Culberson County as well as Andrews County. Well above normal temperatures, exceedingly dry conditions (both a lack of rainfall and critically low min RHs), and breezy winds will make for critical fire weather conditions across southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas this afternoon. An upper level low moving into the Rockies will provide the increasing southwesterly winds that not only aide in fire spread, but can also be attributed to the expected above normal temperatures today. Beyond today, critically low relative humidities return on Tuesday, but winds will be much lighter. The nearbydryline sharpens on Wednesday and is forced back towards the western edge of the CWA bringing strong moisture return and a chance for wetting rains for Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 99 71 90 61 / 0 10 30 40 Carlsbad 94 63 94 61 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 102 73 97 68 / 0 0 30 20 Fort Stockton 100 67 98 64 / 0 0 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 93 59 91 57 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 91 54 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 97 69 93 62 / 0 0 10 30 Odessa 97 69 93 63 / 0 0 10 30 Wink 98 63 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson- Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor- Winkler. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93  952 FXUS64 KMRX 181104 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 704 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 703 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Very warm temperatures are expected early this week with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal. - Increasing chances for showers and storms return Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day from Thursday through the weekend especially across the higher elevations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Main weather feature for Monday and Tuesday will remain an upper ridge over the southeast United States into the southern Appalachians. Main impact will be mostly dry and unseasonably very warm temperatures. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. For Wednesday, ensemble cluster analysis shows a short-wave trough moving across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio valley. This wave will begin to weaken the upper ridge over the region and allow a frontal boundary to approach the area. Surface ridging will also weaken across the southeast United States allowing for slightly better moisture return. Lower heights and better PWs will allow for increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms especially over the Plateau counties. Instability with remain marginal with CAPES of 1000-1500, mid-level lapse rates of 6 degrees or less with little to no shear. At this time severe storms are not anticipated. For Thursday, frontal boundary remains near the region with PWs of 1.5-1.7 inches so moisture returns over the area. Instability and shear remain limited with little to no severe threat, but fairly good coverage of showers and storms with much needed rainfall. QPF for Wednesday through Thursday will range from 0.10 to 0.50 inch. For Friday, frontal boundary lifts north as an upper trough/jet moves northeast into the mid-west and Ohio valley producing pressure falls there. The increase in southerly boundary jet will pull frontal boundary north. Plenty of moisture and instability remains so scattered showers and thunderstorms developing into the afternoon especially across the terrain features. For Saturday and Sunday, the southern Appalachians will remain with plenty of moisture and afternoon instability with upper ridge building back into the region. More typical warm and muggy conditions are expected. Ensemble QPF and WPC depicts from 1 to 1.5 inches across much of the area from Wednesday through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 703 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR and dry weather expected the next 24 hours. A few wind gusts today to 15 knots, maybe 20 knots at TYS, then winds will lighten once more with sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 67 89 66 / 20 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 66 90 67 / 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 89 65 88 64 / 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 62 88 63 / 10 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...Wellington  977 FXUS65 KFGZ 181105 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 405 AM MST Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler and breezy conditions remain today behind a cold front. Gradually warmer and less windy conditions return for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Today...Gusty winds remain over the higher terrain this morning as a cold front moves across northern Arizona. Winds should gradually subside from west to east with the frontal passage, thus for most of the area the Wind Advisory will expire by 5 AM MST / 6 AM MDT. Across eastern Arizona, FROPA looks to still be a couple hours later, so the advisory has been extended to 11 AM MST / 12 PM MDT. As the aforementioned front moves through the region, a brief period of showers will move from west to east, primarily near the AZ/UT border. Given that surface moisture will remain fairly minimal, much of the activity is expected to be either virga or light in nature. The best shot at measurable precip looks to mainly be across the Kaibab Plateau, an potentially Black Mesa and the Chuska Mountains as well. 00Z HREF guidance appears to be a bit bullish with precipitation chances, brining them as far south of as the Mogollon Rim. However, model soundings don't really support this outside of a subtle increase in low-level moisture early this morning. Nevertheless, PoP chances were maintained in the Flagstaff area for the potential for a couple isolated showers. Colder air aloft does move in with the front, so a few snow flakes may mix in at times above 7000-7500 feet. However any potential for measurable snow looks to remain above 7500-8000 feet and primarily near the Kaibab Plateau. Tuesday through Sunday...Zonal flow sets in behind the low earlier in the week. Warming temperatures and dry conditions look to ensue as a result, with a return to near-normal highs by the middle to end of next week. Weak troughing will keep winds fairly light each day, with mainly only the typical afternoon breezes expected. Ensemble guidance all signal towards PWATs increasing slightly by next weekend as a weak low looks to increase moisture advection into Arizona. For now, this looks to mainly result in a slight chance for some high-based showers around the White Mountains. && .AVIATION...Monday 18/12Z through Tuesday 19/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds W/SW 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts through 03Z, then becoming N/NE 5-10 kts. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 19/12Z through Thursday 21/12Z...VFR conditions with W/SW winds 5-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts each day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Slight chance for light showers and possibly a thunderstorm this morning across far northern Arizona, otherwise dry and cool conditions. Winds west/southwest 10- 20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph, subsiding to 5-15 mph on Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 10-30%, falling to 10-20% on Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday....Dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ early this morning for AZZ004-006-009-012-013-015-016-039-040. Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning for AZZ011- 014-017. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  015 FXUS63 KTOP 181105 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 605 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous severe storms are expected late this afternoon over north central Kansas, spreading across northeast Kansas this evening and overnight. Threats include very large hail (2-4+ inches in diameter), Damaging wind gusts to 80 mph, flash flooding, and tornadoes (a few strong). - A Flood Watch is in effect for all of northeast and north central Kansas where antecedent heavy rainfall has enhanced the threat for flash flooding this evening. - After cooler and dry conditions Tue. and Wed., storm chances return with the highest being on Thursday. Widespread severe probabilities are low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Active early Monday morning as a decaying line of slow moving thunderstorms impacts portions of northeast and east central Kansas. Overall threat has shifted to heavy rainfall as hourly rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches have been observed. Totals have currently ranged from 1 to 5 inches with the highest amounts focused over north central Kansas. As the low level jet wanes, activity is anticipated to dissipate by mid morning, leaving the stratus in place and potentially an outflow boundary in far eastern Kansas to MO. How quickly the atmosphere recovers in eastern Kansas is uncertain, potentially generating scattered severe storms by mid afternoon. Confidence in this scenario is somewhat bolstered by the last few runs of the HRRR/RAP, forming convection south of I-70 and east of I-35. Forecast soundings in vicinity of this outflow boundary exhibit strong low and mid level wind shear and elevated CAPE up to around 3000 J/KG. If this occurs, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out earlier in the afternoon. Overall confidence for the above scenario is low-medium, owning to timing and location inconsistencies of current convection and where the boundary settles by midday. In terms of the main severe weather setup, no major changes were noted in forecast trends as the moderate severe risk from SPC remains centered from the Flint Hills region to the Kansas/Nebraska border. Negatively tilted upper trough axis across the Four Corners Region is anticipated to eject into the western high plains between 21Z-00Z. At this time, dryline/cold front is oriented southwest to northeast over north central Kansas as rich low level moisture raises dewpoints into the low 70s pooling just ahead of the stalled boundary. In addition clouds are anticipated to scatter out by late afternoon, resulting in SFC CAPE exceeding 5000 J/KG amid minimal inhibition. Strong convergence along the front is sufficient for discreet convection to form in the 3-5 PM timeframe over north central Kansas. Initial severe storms will be most intense in terms of very large hail (2-4+ inches diameter) and strong tornadoes, especially as the low level jet strengthens in the early evening. The strong tornado threat persists into the early evening with any discrete supercells. Bulk shear vectors parallel to the front suggest discrete cells transition to a line of storms around 7 PM. Main hazards with the squall line are damaging wind gusts to 80 mph , brief tornadoes along the leading edge, and large hail as they quickly translate east southeast through eastern Kansas. Forward propagating corfidi vectors are weak (20 kts) while PWAT values increase above 1.5 inches and low/mid level moisture saturates the column. Given the several inches of rainfall that occurred the last evening, decided to expand the Flood Watch to cover the entire forecast area through Tuesday morning. Estimated rainfall totals tonight range from 2 to 5 inches, increasing the likelihood for localized flash flooding. Activity exits into Missouri between 3 and 6 AM Tuesday. Much cooler airmass settles in behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as highs only peak in the middle to upper 60s. Showers and isolated storm chances return by Thursday as broad upper troughing amplifies to the north and west. However, given the influence from sfc ridge to the northeast and lack of good return moisture, the overall severe threat is low. Better dynamics return by Friday evening, signaling the possibility for strong storms in the Kansas region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 558 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Low end VFR stratus to start period at terminals as scattered TSRA continues to impact KTOP/KFOE through 15Z. There is a low probability that isolated TSRA may redevelop just south of KFOE in the 15-19Z timeframe. Observed MVFR stratus builds eastward between 13-15Z and will quickly lift back to VFR as south winds increase from 10 to 20 kts sustained in the afternoon. A line of TSRA and fropa is trending faster, progged to be around 23Z at KMHK and 01Z at KTOP/KFOE as winds veer to the northwest above 10 kts behind the storms. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Record High Temperature Monday May 18 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 94 (1975) 87 Concordia 94 (1967, 1988) 84 Record Warm Low Temperature Monday May 18 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 71 (1911) 68 Concordia 72 (1911) 61 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010- KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034- KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056- KSZ058-KSZ059. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054. && $$ DISCUSSION...22 AVIATION...22 CLIMATE...Griesemer  147 FXUS63 KGLD 181109 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 509 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Large range of temperatures today with highs in the low/mid 40s (Yuma county ) to the low 70s (Greeley/Wichita) - Breezy to gusty winds are forecast this afternoon and may lead to blowing dust with visibilities less than one mile (20% chance) along and south of Highway 40. - Early Tuesday morning, a freeze watch is in effect for Eastern Colorado where temperatures could drop into the upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1232 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A weak surface trough remains across the northern portion of the area as is forecast to lead to isolated showers and storms favoring Yuma county through the early morning hours. Just southeast of the area a cold front has stalled out leading to training storms. The position of this front is very important for the forecast for Monday. First off however northeast flow is forecast to remain in place with stratus and perhaps some fog as well but the fog potential is rather low as winds are forecast to be breezy around 10-20 mph sustained. Am seeing some isentropic ascent as well overnight leading to the continued potential for drizzle or light showers developing across most of the area. Dry air above 700mb should help any prevent any updraft from utilizing any remaining MUCAPE aloft so not expecting any overnight storms due to this. Monday, as mentioned above the positioning of the boundary tonight will be very important for temperatures and even blowing dust potential. The cold front that moved through the area today is forecast to be stalled out as a stationary front. Some guidance continues to show it being stalled out roughly around Highway 40 in the southern part of the forecast area; whereas others has it south of the of the area across southwest Kansas. If the front does remain around Highway 40 then temperatures south of there would be around 5- 10 degrees warmer than what is currently forecast at this time along with elevated to even very locally critical fire weather conditions in place. Blowing dust would with visibilities falling to around 1 mile or less would also be possible with plumes of dust. Around 21Z a stronger surge of cold air advection is forecast to move in as a low pressure system pulls off to the east. If the warmer air in place remains in the area then a haboob could be possible as mixing heights are forecast to be around 6000 feet AGL. With all of this have decided to introduce patchy blowing dust into the forecast as confidence is around 20% in dust developing and around 5-10% in a haboob. Have been noticing a more southern trend with the positioning of the stationary front in ensembles and most of 00Z data and if that does continue then any dust threat would be eliminated. Winds are forecast to increase with gusts around 50-55 mph with the front especially south of Interstate 70 and gusts up to 40 mph elsewhere from the north. The winds will also lead to chilly wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s especially across Yuma county where temperatures may struggle to warm up much. With persistent low clouds currently forecast to remain in place through the day and the signal for the stationary boundary to remain south of the area have nudged down temperatures more. High temperatures are currently in the mid 40s to mid 50s behind the front and 70s to low 80s ahead of the front. If the front indeed is south of the area then any severe threat would also be eliminated. Showers and storms however are forecast to develop during the afternoon hours with some 500mb vorticity off of the mountains but minimal CAPE and what is forecast to be a fairly stable environment so anticipating any hazards with this activity at this time. Cold air advection is forecast to continue through the night Monday. Guidance continues to suggest that stratus returns or even continues in spots. Breezy winds are forecast to remain in place for the majority of the night with the exception being across eastern Colorado where a surface high is forecast to move in from the northwest waning winds. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s across eastern Colorado. There are some failure points to how cold it may get however. The first one is the lingering low level moisture in place keeping low clouds across the area. The other is the breezy winds through the night. With all of this in place confidence is not high enough to upgrade to a warning or even Frost Advisory at this time so will leave the watch as is. Tuesday, the surface high is forecast to be over more of the area leading to lighter winds and from the east. Another cool day is forecast across the area with highs currently forecast in the 60s. Dry conditions are currently forecast for most of the day but an advancing 500mb shortwave off of the mountains is forecast to gradually increase shower potential starting during the evening and overnight hours. Minimal CAPE is forecast to be present so currently not anticipating any thunderstorm potential with this activity. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Wednesday, our region is forecast under a southwest upper-level flow with a weak trough developing west of the Rocky Mountains and a ridge building off the west coast. Wednesday will be cool and windy with high temperatures forecast in the 60s and wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph are possible west of Highway 27. Several embedded shortwaves will pass through the region bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The entire county warning area (CWA) has a Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 30-40% during the day Wednesday. PoPs increase in the evening to around 60-70% and persist overnight into Thursday for the southern CWA. Conditions remain unseasonably cool for Thursday with highs again forecast in the 60s. Our region remains in a southwest upper-level flow with embedded shortwaves passing through, so chances for showers and thunderstorms continue. Cooler temperatures and a mostly stable environment will likely keep and storms that develop sub- severe. Pops range from 30-60% Thursday overnight into Friday with the southern CWA on the higher end. Ensembles are in disagreement on when the aforementioned trough ejects eastward and takes us out of the persistent southwest flow, but it will likely move on after Friday. A slight warming trend begins Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Friday and 80s for Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain Friday through Saturday with PoPs around 20-30% for the eastern CWA as several shortwaves pass through the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 503 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Low stratus will continue to hamper aviation operations across the Tri-State area. Expansive low CIGs are in place across the region with further degradations expected over the next few hours. MVFR conditions should expand north into MCK shortly in to the forecast period with little break then expected at either GLD or MCK through the forecast period. Confidence in prolonged MVFR versus periodic IFR conditions is low and trends will need monitored for possible amendments later on. Over the next few hours, scattered -SHRA are likely to develop across northwest Kansas and lift north into Nebraska. This should bring brief impacts to both terminals but given spotty coverage, will cover with a TEMPO group for now.Northerly winds will be gusty with peak speeds of around 25 to 30 knots and should be consistent outside a brief lull over northwest Kansas around midday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for COZ090>092. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...WFO LBF/NMJ  109 FXUS64 KBRO 181108 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 608 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 605 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Key Messages: * Daily or near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected through the upcoming workweek and possibly through the end of May as a major shift in the weather pattern takes shape. * Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible through the upcoming workweek. * Hot and humid conditions will take place through Tuesday; maximum heat indices between 105-111F degrees will result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk through Tuesday. * A Small Craft Advisory has been extended till 9 AM CDT Tuesday; a High Risk for Rip Currents may need to be expected till Tuesday as well. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Collaborated higher POPs through Tuesday afternoon with our neighboring office, given showers and thunderstorms actively on radar across the brush country and upper valley. Leaned into more of a diurnal cycle from west to east into Monday morning and Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Building heat with Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk through Tuesday (possibly into Wednesday), and an increasingly unsettled weather pattern punctuating a significant pattern change from dry to wet are the two main weather headlines through the forecast period. We'll first begin talking about the unsettled weather pattern followed by the building heat through midweek. Global computer and AI/ML models/ensembles continues to advertise a significant pattern change from dry to wet beginning this week. A split-flow 500 mb pattern featuring what will become an increasingly active and persistent southwest flow aloft sub-tropical jet or southern branch jet stream is in place. This will serve as a conduit for multiple impulses/perturbations tracking over the region over the next several days. Later in the week through next weekend, there are sings that mid-upper troughing along with multiple impulses/perturbations will undercut high pressure/ridging aloft. This large-scale setup will help to yield incessant day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least next week and maybe through the remainder of May. Closer to the sfc, a frontal boundary will sag southward across the U.S. before stalling and meandering to our north across the southern Plains. More than normal favorable jet dynamics will be in place through next week. Additionally, southerly flow near the sfc will yield a pool of deep tropical moisture helping to increase the atmospheric water content over the region through the week ahead. This is justified with sample maximum precipitable water (PWAT) values between 1.80-2.50 inches, some 1-3 STDEVs above normal and above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology for mid to late May. Furthermore, high instability values will be present through this week with steep mid level lapse rates between 6.5-8.0 C/km, SBCAPE values between 2,000-4,000 J/kg, MLCAPE values between 1,000- 2,000 J/kg, a moderately to very unstable atmosphere with Showalter values ranging between -2 and -6. The combination of a favorable mid-upper level 500 mb steering pattern, favorable jet stream dynamics, high atmospheric moisture content, and high instability will support a noticeable change to a wetter/active weather pattern this week and possibly beyond. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible given the atmospheric and forcing ingredients highlighted above. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted the northwestern half of our area under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. This includes all of Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties, and most of Brooks and Starr Counties in it's latest SWODY3. Given the high atmospheric moisture content available, heavy rainfall and instances of flooding is possible through the week, especially later in the week. This is especially true for slow moving thunderstorms that repeatedly track over the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the entire forecast area or all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall in it's Day 4 (Wednesday) and Day 5 (Thursday) ERO. Most of the convection through next week is anticipated to initiate off the Sierra Madre before possibly rolling off the front range and translating east-northeastward into our CWA. So far, for Monday night, low (20%) chance PoPs are forecasted generally along the Rio Grande Valley. Tuesday night, rain chances increase with low-medium (30-40%) PoPs for showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday-Wednesday night, there is a low-medium (20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday will feature medium (30-60%) chances. By Thursday night, rain chances increase with widespread categorical or medium-high (50-80%) chances. Friday through Saturday, there remain medium (30-60%) chances across Deep South Texas. Finally, Saturday night through next Monday, there exists medium (30-50%) chances. Overall, there generally is a 30-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms through the forecast period with Thursday night yielding the greatest chances between 50-80%. The other news will be the heat! Global forecast models/ensembles continue to depict a strengthening 588-591 dam sub-tropical heat ridge developing over the region early next week. This feature will result in hotter than normal temperatures through Tuesday, and maybe even extending into Wednesday. Forecast high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 90s to lower 100s with the hottest temps west of IH-69C/US-281. Dewpoints in the mid 70s will result in max heat indices or apparent temperature values climbing to between 105-111F degrees on both Monday and Tuesday. These values will result in Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk both days. Cloud over will be a factor in these temperatures being realized. By Wednesday, the aforementioned heat ridge relaxes which should result in a slightly cooler day. Shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday as well as cloud cover could also play a role in the slightly lower temperatures from Monday and Tuesday. Nonetheless, it will be another warmer than normal day with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. With heat indices ranging between 100-108F degrees, Heat Risk scores will be mainly Moderate (Level 2 of 4) over the region on Wednesday. Thursday through next Sunday, high temperatures will range between the upper 80s to lower 90s. This largely will be due to the shower and thunderstorm chances during this timeframe. Tonight through Tuesday night, overnight lows are progged to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wednesday night through next Sunday night, overnight lows are expected to be mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR and MVFR conditions are expected to improve this morning to all VFR with breezy to gusty southeasterly winds. MVFR ceilings likely return this evening through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may develop west of MFE tonight and work towards the RGV aerodromes into Tuesday morning. Confidence is too low to include in this TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A Small Craft Advisory has been extended till Tuesday morning due to continued breezy southeasterly winds and elevated wave heights. Outside of the threat for showers and thunderstorms, Tuesday through Wednesday, adverse (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions are possible. Again, outside of the threat for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through next Sunday, marine conditions are expected to improve with moderate seas and low to moderate winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 95 81 94 81 / 20 20 20 20 HARLINGEN 96 79 95 79 / 20 20 20 40 MCALLEN 97 81 97 79 / 20 30 20 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 79 98 78 / 20 30 20 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 86 81 / 20 20 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 80 92 80 / 20 20 20 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...56-Hallman  632 FXUS64 KMAF 181106 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 606 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 601 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through Tuesday. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame. - Critical fire weather conditions expected for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. - Rain and storm chances increase (40-80% chances) by the middle to latter part of the week. We will be monitoring a few strong to severe storms each day. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns over locations east of the Pecos River Wednesday into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Another hot and windy day is expected across the region, particularly over southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas. Antecedent dry conditions combined with the dry air will make for critical fire weather conditions. More information on that can be found below in the fire weather discussion. Many locations will reach into the mid to upper 90s with a number of spots near the century mark. Winds will decay by tonight, but temperatures will only fall into the 60s and 70s. A cold front approaches the region by Tuesday morning and slowly stalls near the Pecos River Valley. The front and present dryline combine to increase storm chances across the eastern portions of the CWA. A few strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Depending on the timing and strength of the front, temperatures will be a touch cooler for most compared to today, though will still reach into the low to mid 90s. Highs in the 100s will be seen along the Rio Grande. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday night and into Wednesday sees an upper level disturbance move across from the west. This combined with the dryline moved further west will lead to higher rain chances across most of the region for Wednesday and into Thursday. Strong to severe storms will be possible on both days, but it remains to be seen what hazards these storms will contain and just how much rain will fall and where. Below normal temperatures will take hold from Wednesday through at least Saturday as easterly flow and a favorable upper level environment keep temperatures on the cool side for mid to late May. Low (10-20%) rain chances hold on from Friday and into the weekend particularly across the Davis Mountains and eastern portions of the CWA. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A few areas are seeing patchy low clouds lead to MVFR CIGs, but these conditions are too brief to include with this issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will hold through the day. Winds become gusty with speeds topping out between 20-30kts during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Have expanded the inherited Red Flag Warning to include most of Culberson County as well as Andrews County. Well above normal temperatures, exceedingly dry conditions (both a lack of rainfall and critically low min RHs), and breezy winds will make for critical fire weather conditions across southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas this afternoon. An upper level low moving into the Rockies will provide the increasing southwesterly winds that not only aide in fire spread, but can also be attributed to the expected above normal temperatures today. Beyond today, critically low relative humidities return on Tuesday, but winds will be much lighter. The nearbydryline sharpens on Wednesday and is forced back towards the western edge of the CWA bringing strong moisture return and a chance for wetting rains for Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 99 71 90 61 / 0 10 30 40 Carlsbad 94 63 94 61 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 102 73 97 68 / 0 0 30 20 Fort Stockton 100 67 98 64 / 0 0 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 93 59 91 57 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 91 54 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 97 69 93 62 / 0 0 10 30 Odessa 97 69 93 63 / 0 0 10 30 Wink 98 63 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson- Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor- Winkler. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93  710 FXUS65 KTFX 181117 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 517 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly mountain showers today, with dry and cool conditions elsewhere. - Another cold night is in store tonight across the valleys of Southwest and Central Montana, with a high chance for a hard freeze. - Temperatures moderate through rest of the work week, but daily chances for showers exist. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 1203 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: One final day of well below normal temperatures can be expected as cool, cyclonic northwest flow prevails over the Northern Rockies, with additional opportunities for predominately mountain precipitation, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. By this afternoon upper level ridging over the Eastern Pacific will begin to amplify, with overall rising heights across much of the Western CONUS. While this ridge will amplify over the Eastern Pacific it will fail to build east and over the Northern Rockies through the work week, which will help to keep Southwest through North Central Montana beneath continued northwest flow aloft. While temperatures will moderate beneath the rising heights aloft there will be daily chances for showers and storms throughout the work week, especially from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning when a compact shortwave dives southeast and over the Northern Rockies within the aforementioned northwest flow aloft. This shortwave looks to bring the best chance for widespread precipitation this week, with most lower elevations seeing light rainfall up to 0.10" and the mountains seeing between 0.10" to 0.25". The exception to this will be the northerly upslope areas of Central Montana, Island Ranges of Central Montana, and Continental Divide where precipitation amounts of between 0.10" to 0.25" and 0.25" to 0.50" are possible for plain and mountain locations, respectively. This weekend the upper level flow will become quasi-zonal, which will lead to increasing surface winds and warming temperatures, with most locations climbing above to well above normal. - Moldan - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Cold Temperatures Tonight... Upper level ridging building in over the Northern Rockies combined with overall light surface winds and mostly clear skies will setup ideal radiational cooling processes across much of Southwest through North Central Montana tonight, with the exception of the immediate Rocky Mountain Front where southwest surface wind will be just strong enough to inhibit surface decoupling. With below normal temperatures already in place thanks to this weekends disturbance temperatures will cool efficient tonight; with a 50% or greater chance that values fall below freezing across most locations and 70% or greater chance for a hard freeze across most valley locations in Southwest and Central Montana. Those with early season gardening interest should be prepared to take protective measure for sensitive vegetation. Below is the NBM5.0 probabilities for certain temperatures for select locations across North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana tonight. Low Temperature Probabilities LOCATION <36F | <32F | <28F Browning 100% | 55% | <5% Cut Bank 95% | 60% | 20% Havre 100% | 80% | 40% Great Falls 95% | 60% | 25% Lewistown 100% | 100% | 85% Helena 85% | 45% | 5% Bozeman 100% | 100% | 85% Dillon 100% | 100% | 70% Ennis 100% | 100% | 90% West Yellowstone 100% | 100% | 100%Gusty Winds and Choppy Water this Memorial Day Weekend... Increasing south to west surface winds over the holiday weekend, specifically on Sunday and Monday, is likely to lead to choppy water conditions on area lakes, reservoirs, and long fetches of rivers. NBM5.0 probabilities for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph across most of Southwest through North Central Montana range from a 20-40% chance on Sunday and between a 40-60% chance on Monday, with the exception of the Rocky MOuntain Front where a 40-75% chance exists both days. Those with plans to recreate on waterways should be prepared for choppy conditions, especially considering that local waterways will be significantly colder than the ambient air temperature due to snowmelt. These choppy conditions and cold water temperatures will create an increased risk for drowning should a person fall into the water without proper safety equipment. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 18/12Z TAF Period Primary concern throughout the 1812/1912 TAF period will be the potential for fog at the KGTF and KCTB terminals through 14-16z this morning; however, confidence in this occurring is low so for now kept conditions to temporary MVFR with the potential for VLIFR/LIFR conditions. Otherwise IFR/MVFR/low-VFR CIGS will improve to low-VFR/VFR through 16-20z today. Mountain obscuration will persist through 00-06z tonight. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 52 29 63 40 / 10 0 30 10 CTB 54 31 63 38 / 20 10 20 10 HLN 55 29 62 38 / 10 10 20 0 BZN 51 22 60 34 / 10 0 10 0 WYS 41 16 51 24 / 10 10 20 0 DLN 48 23 60 30 / 10 10 20 0 HVR 54 26 66 41 / 10 0 50 10 LWT 46 23 59 36 / 40 0 30 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  763 FXUS64 KLZK 181119 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 619 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 -Above normal temperatures and high humidity levels the next few days. -Some potential for severe thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday. -Daily rain chances will be in the forecast through the end of the period. -Some locally heavy rainfall is possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Summer-like conditions are in place across the state early this morning as 06z observations include temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s F and Td values in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. This humid airmass will linger for the next couple of days as sfc riding remains to the east of the area and H500 longwave troughing persists across the western US. This will provide steady SW flow throughout much of the atmospheric column. For today, a small piece of energy will traverse the state aloft and could provide for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout the day. Overall coverage is expected to remain limited, but some early morning CAMs show a flourish of activity across the northern half of the state between 12-18z. Otherwise, not much concern for widespread hazardous weather today. That won't be the case to the northwest of the state where widespread strong to severe storms may develop later today. This activity would be focused along a nearly stationary cold front situated from the OK/TX panhandles northeastward to the Great Lakes. As storms merge overnight they will begin to move southeast toward the state as the cold front makes similar progress. This activity is expected to move into Arkansas during the early morning hours Tuesday in a weakened state. Through the afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday there could be some reinvigeration of this activity. The overall severe threat will be determined by how widespread the early morning activity lasts and how far it progresses throughout the day. While instability and mid-level lapse rates look favorable for a severe threat Tuesday afternoon, shear values remain limited during this timeframe. Will begin to see the above normal temperatures relax a bit by Wednesday across the state as the sfc cold front moves southeast. The flow aloft will remain out of the SW and disturbances will continue to move along it. This will provide nearly daily chances for precip across parts of the state. This pattern looks to be locked in through at least the upcoming weekend. There will be some localized concern for heavy rainfall at times across the state the next few days as PW values are expected to be in the 1.5-2.0 inch range. But, given the recent short and long term rainfall deficits in place across the area, FFG values remain substantial. This will limit any major flash flood concerns for the time being. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR CIGs are present at most sites, LIT and ADF are expected to degrade from VFR within the next few hours. Overnight CAMs continued to favor NW/NC AR for a cluster of t'storms developing around 16z or so. Have introduced VCTS with Tempo TS group for BPK to account for more widespread coverage. Winds remain Srthly and gusty through the period. CIGs to improve back to VFR late afternoon to early evening Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 73 86 65 / 40 20 60 80 Camden AR 89 72 90 67 / 10 20 60 60 Harrison AR 85 71 83 60 / 30 10 80 90 Hot Springs AR 87 73 85 66 / 10 40 70 70 Little Rock AR 88 71 87 66 / 20 30 60 80 Monticello AR 88 73 89 68 / 10 30 50 70 Mount Ida AR 86 74 83 67 / 20 40 70 70 Mountain Home AR 85 71 83 61 / 40 10 90 90 Newport AR 89 72 89 66 / 30 20 60 80 Pine Bluff AR 89 73 89 68 / 20 20 50 60 Russellville AR 87 72 84 66 / 40 30 90 80 Searcy AR 87 70 87 64 / 30 20 60 70 Stuttgart AR 89 73 89 68 / 10 20 60 70 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...78  834 FXUS61 KOKX 181120 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 720 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes, with hot weather expected thru Wed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike temperatures through Wednesday 2) A cold front moves across Wednesday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Brief gusty winds and locally heavy rain possible. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... No major changes to the hot fcst thru Wed. Kept with the previous trend of going a bit blw the NBM which is believed to be too warm. Went with a 50/50 blend of the MAV and NBM to accomplish this. The shallow backdoor cold front looks to have little impact on temps today aside from ern areas and LI, where onshore flow may limit highs a bit. Otherwise the hot airmass continues to build in. Depending on where the numbers end up today, there is a chance some of the usually warmer spots may need a heat advy based on the two-day 95 degree criteria. In addition, temps could spike on Wed ahead of the front. Guidance often has a tough time getting hot enough invof a front, especially a few days out. Despite that bias, the MAV/NBM blend still has a high of 94 for KNYC on Wed. .KEY MESSAGE 2... It looks increasingly likely that a cold fropa will occur during the day on Wed. The actual timing will be critical. Low moisture but sufficient instability and no CIN should allow for tstms to develop invof the front assuming a daytime passage. The best upr support is to the north, but there will be falling heights nonetheless. Primary severe threat based on the setup appears to be downburst winds with relatively high based storms attm. DCAPE in the NAM supports this with peak values around 1500J/kg modeled. There could be some hail as well with the dry air entrainment. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid to upper 60s and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak backdoor cold front will make it about as far west as the Hudson River this morning before jumping back to the north as warm front late morning into early afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will remain over the western Atlantic with a frontal system over the mid section of the country. This will keep us in a warm, southerly flow. VFR through the TAF period. Light E/SE winds develop this morning, gradually veering to a more southerly direction late morning into the afternoon, increasing to around 10kt with a some locations G15-18kt. KLGA is expected to be NE-ENE during the morning and early afternoon hours before veering to more southerly flow. KBDR also could hang on to an E wind into the afternoon. Winds diminish tonight to under 10 kt from the S/SW. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon. Winds may also be more to the left of the current forecast. This will depend on how much the area can heat up to mix down a more S to SSW flow. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Tuesday: VFR. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt into eve. Isolated thunderstorm potential afternoon into early eve, mainly north of NYC terminals with brief MVFR or lower possible. Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with potential showers and thunderstorms. Showers likely afternoon into eve with a chance of thunderstorms. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible. NW windshift in the evening. Thursday-Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain blw SCA lvls today. Winds will increase tngt, with SCA cond possible on Tue, especially on the ocean. The threat for SCA winds and seas continues on Wed as a cold front passes, then winds and seas are modeled to remain blw advy lvls Thu and Fri. There could be some strong tstms invof the cold front on Wed. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 17: KEWR: 68/2015 KBDR: 60/2025 KNYC: 70/1906 KLGA: 68/1965 KJFK: 63/1965 KISP: 62/2015 May 18: KEWR: 74/2017 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 75/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 65/2017 KISP: 63/1977 May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-176-178. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...DW MARINE...  833 FXUS63 KDVN 181120 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 620 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...12z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of storms tonight, with the chance for some of them to be strong to severe. - Turning cooler and breezy Tuesday behind a cold front, with dry conditions expected to then last through at least Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Will walk out ongoing linear MCS that has become mainly outflow dominant, although a few isolated strong wind gusts may still occur. Also some isolated precursor WAA cells have developed ahead of the main line and with an elevated nature may produce some hail. Such a weakening larger system and inherent pressure perturbations may produce more trouble with wake low winds gushing out of the system's backside, possibly of 45 to 55+ MPH. Some of the CAMs even suggested this by mid morning south of I-80 acrs west central IL and far southeast IA. Areas of post-convective line stratiform rain with embedded thunder to be the last to clear as the morning progresses. Then again it's the same scenario of how much the convective debris can clear to allow for some heating, and also aided by breezy south to southwest sfc winds again this afternoon. Will go with 50 percentile widespread low 80s for highs today with sfc DPTs remaining in the 60s. The local area should remain dry while the current system lights up renewed convection to the south acrs central MO into central IL. Tonight...may be a similar scenario as to what has and is occurring this Sunday night/Monday morning. The main upper trof will dig out acrs the east central plains with mid and upper jet support, and the main sfc front located along the MO RVR Valley. MCS generation tools all come together to suggest rapid and strong convection to fire late this afternoon from central KS and up the MO RVR Valley. Storm propagation vectors and CAPE "hunger" has this activity growing upscale and feeding east with aid of 40-50 KT SSW LLJ flow as another squall line moves east acrs IA and northern MO. There may be more support and a probable earlier start to allow some of this activity to still be strong to severe with damaging straight line winds(as opposed to this Monday AM) as the linear MCS arrives. 0-3KM shear vectors and LLVL THTA-E lapse rates may also support some meso- vortice type spin up tornadoes along any LEWP or comma head updraft- downdraft balance regions. Locally heavy rain with the passing storm lines with high rates, but again progressive nature of the system should preclude much of a widespread flash flood threat. Would expect a weakening trend with the convection as it propagates eastward acrs the rest of the DVN CWA into the late night hours and into early Tuesday morning as storm outflow outraces the main line again. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday...Morning convective debris and possibly a few post-frontal isolated light showers to eventually clear off for a blustery and cooler day. A large temp range acrs the CWA from west-to-east, with the east experiencing 12 hour high temps in the morning along and just post-frontal and then falling off into the 60s. The rest of the week looks below normal under high pressure until moderation occurs into the start of the weekend. Also mainly dry until an upstream upper trof tries to battle it's way eastward into the ridge complex with some moisture draw for increasing precip chances by Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas of showers and thunderstorms to continue to affect the TAF sites through mid to late morning with bouts of MVFR to IFRconditions. They may have an hour or two of higher wind gusts of 35-45 KTs, as well as swaths of wake low winds away from the storms with variable gusts of 40-50+ Kts. Thus sfc winds very uncertain and variable in both direction and speeds this morning until the convection diminishes by late morning and midday. Later today and afternoon gusty southerly winds will take over and mainly VFR clouds lingering into the evening. Then the watch will be on for another line of thunderstorms moving in from the west after 10 PM. This line will have the capability to produce strong straight line winds and passing bouts of heavy rainfall reducing VSBYs. Have tried to time out a 2 hour TEMPO window for the line based on a blend of the latest CAMs timing. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...12  905 FXUS63 KUNR 181121 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 521 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of rain, with snow in Black Hills, is likely later tonight into Monday. - Much colder to start the week but warmer temps return by late week. - Low-end chances for rain return later this week. && .DISCUSSION...(Tonight Through Sunday) Issued at 1051 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Upper air analysis depicts upper trof digging into the Intermountain West with southwest flow across the Northern Plains. Water vapor imagery shows moisture associated with our next system making its way into the area. Precip chances will increase overnight across northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and southwestern SD as this system approaches from the southwest. Precip will overspread the region Monday as band of 850-700mb FGEN and plenty of available moisture sets up over much of the CWA. Expecting mainly rain over the western SD plains with snow over the Black Hills. Northeastern WY could see snow to start out with with a change over to rain in the afternoon as the day warms up. There's still some uncertainty as to where the strongest forcing (and therefore the highest precip amounts) will be, right now it looks like the greatest precip totals will be across the Northern Black Hills and southwestern SD into the western SD plains with total QPF amounts of up to 0.25 to 0.4 inches are likely. Froude numbers of around 1 and moist, northerly flow will support upslope snow across the northern Black Hills. However, given the time of year and the fact that the snow is going to be falling during the day, snow accumulations (especially on roadways) may be limited by melting. Therefore, anticipating slushy accumulations of up to 3-5", mainly on grassy sfcs and in the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Northeastern WY could also see light snow accumulations with this system though, again, the time of year and the fact that this will be occurring during the daytime will limit overall snow totals. Expecting around a trace to up to 2 inches with the highest amounts across southern Campbell County. Regardless of final snow amounts, the main thing to note is that much of the area will receive some much needed moisture. Below normal temps expected through early this week with lows tonight, Monday, and Tuesday nights dropping into the 20s to 30s. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for northeastern WY for early this morning as temps are expected to drop into the upper 20s. Additional Frost/Freeze headlines may be needed for Monday and Tuesday nights, but will hold off on issuance for now. Shortwave ridging develops by the mid-week and kick off a gradual warming trend for the rest of the week. Approaching upper trof then brings precip chances back to the CWA for the late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued At 520 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Precipitation and low clouds are pushing into the region out of the southwest this morning with MVFR/LIFR conditions. Local LIFR conditions may occur in/near the Black Hills due to snow. Conditions will slowly improve after 18/22z. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for WYZ054>056- 058>060. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong AVIATION...SE  921 FXUS65 KABQ 181122 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 522 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 504 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread continues today with the most critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions focused over eastern New Mexico. - Hazardous crosswinds will impact high profile vehicles along with lowering visibility due to blowing dust this afternoon. - Afternoon thunderstorm activity increases over eastern New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A stout 100-110kt H3 jetmax, sampled by the Reno WFO on the prior 00Z sounding, continues to dig south and southeastward over Area 51 northwest of Las Vegas, NV this hour. Southwesterly winds ahead of this system over AZ/NM continues to strengthen in response to this H5 low closing off and deepening over NV/UT this morning. Most of these winds remain aloft just above the surface but have and will continue to waffle up and down in altitude, at times reaching the surface in erratic fashion. The ABQ Sunport has seen some of these erratic wind speeds already tonight at times gusting to 30 mph before subsiding again. A day of strong winds gusting 30 to 45 mph, peaking in strength to 50 to 55 mph along and immediately east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts remains on track. Numerical model guidance continues to show the main jetmax and vortlobe rounding the southern periphery of the H5 low over northern NM by 12pm MDT today before quickly ejecting northeastward over the Great Plains late today and tonight. This timing just misses peak diurnal heating and mixing to fully realize the highest wind potential. As such, while it won't be surprising to see a few gusts reach high wind thresholds of > 58mph along the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mts and perhaps a stray spot along the northeastern highlands, confidence was not high enough to fully upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning with this forecast package. Wind Advisories were instead hoisted across the northeastern quadrant of the state from Taos and the Sangre de Cristo's eastward and from I-40 northward. Hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles and localized blowing dust threatening low visibility will be the main travel impacts this afternoon. Any precipitation associated with this system will barely skirt the far northern tier of the state along the CO border. Wind speeds quickly taper off past sunset this evening as the aforementioned H5 low opens and quickly exits the region. Left in its wake will be a potent cold front backing southward through eastern NM Monday night into Tuesday morning. Gusty northerly winds up to 25 to 35 mph will push in behind the front, aided by a quick 3hr 9-12mb increase in MSLP. This will be a concern for any fire suppression activities over eastern NM given the initial sudden wind shift. The good news is that winds will decrease further through Tuesday morning before shifting easterly then southeasterly over eastern NM. Drier southerly to southwesterly winds return to a good portion of the highlands, having never left western NM and the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday afternoon, but at a significantly lower speed relative to Monday. A few stray showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm if any would favor the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, another dry day for many aside from the increase in humidity over eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Wednesday begins the long term with a tricky meteorological forecast over eastern NM. The aforementioned cold front that backs through eastern NM Tuesday will see winds veer southeasterly across eastern NM. The question however is whether or not return flow from the Gulf will bring in warmer air and higher dewpoints in the upper 50s into eastern NM Wednesday, or if the subtly drier continental airmass further north with its lower dewpoints in the 40s holds on? The warmer and higher moisture GFS solution would favor a higher instability and chances for subsequent afternoon thunderstorm activity along a sharpening dryline over eastern NM Wednesday afternoon. The more stable NAM solution would likely favor a blanket of low stratus loitering over eastern NM much of the day suppressing chances for afternoon convection. A middle ground compromise (deterministic Canadian solution) was chosen for this forecast package where the boundary b/w the higher moisture Gulf return flow and continental airmass is faded somewhere through east-central NM with some afternoon convection favored along the dryline along the highlands immediately east of the central mountain chain. While western NM stays high and dry, eastern NM will see low level moisture attempt to push westward again into parts of the Rio Grande Valley through the gaps of the central mountain chain. How much will likely depend on coverage and strength of any convective outflow boundaries occurring from any convective activity over eastern NM Wednesday evening. This will determine how widespread any afternoon convective activity will be over the eastern third of NM Thursday. Modest westerlies associated with a shortwave trough trekking eastward over WY/CO will shunt low-level moisture back east into the TX/OK Panhandles by Friday. This shuts down precipitation chances for much of eastern NM except the furthest northeastern corner in Union County. A subsequent cold front backing southward through eastern NM in the wake of the exiting shortwave trough will replenish moisture over eastern NM next weekend. This will return the two-faced pattern of weather over NM with western areas remaining high and dry with chances for afternoon thunderstorm activity over eastern NM. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 504 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Southwesterly surface wind speeds are beginning to increase again this hour over some spots. Strong southwesterly gusts will commonly reach 25 to 35 kts over the region with the weakest wind speeds relegated to far northwestern NM near KFMN. The strongest gusts of 40 to 50 kts will focus along and immediately east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Some patchy blowing dust could also reduce visibilities at some dust prone terminals this afternoon, including at KABQ and KROW. An Airport Weather Warning for gusts reaching or just surpassing 35kts may be required for KABQ as well Monday afternoon. Winds begin to taper off in earnest past 00Z Monday evening, with the exception of gusty northerly winds behind a cold front advancing southward along the NM/TX border Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 ...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE GROWING PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY... Southwesterly to westerly winds strengthen in earnest this morning gusting 30 to 45 mph with peak gusts reaching 50 to 55+ mph along and east of the Sangre de Cristo's. The exception will be moderately weaker westerlies in far northwestern NM where a few stray showers may skirt the CO border. Otherwise, the winds will combine with widespread humidity falling to 10 to 15 percent with 6 to 11 hours of single-digit humidity in the lower Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains to produce widespread critical fire weather conditions. Extremely critical conditions will exist where the strongest winds coincide with the lowest single-digit humidity over east-central and northeastern NM. Winds quickly retreat from their peak speeds this evening with the exception of far eastern NM where gusty northerly to northeasterly winds behind an advancing cold front will bring a sudden wind shift late this evening and overnight into Tuesday morning. Timing of this sudden wind shift will be a main concern for any ongoing suppression activities through eastern NM. Otherwise, the good news is cooler temperatures and better recoveries heading into Tuesday once winds calm. Breezy to at times windy southwesterlies return Tuesday afternoon, pushing back this moisture toward TX and CO and producing elevated to locally critical conditions in portions of the Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ. A stronger westward push of low-level moisture pushes a dry line westward to or through the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley. This will create a dichotomy of dry elevated fire weather conditions over western NM each day with higher moisture and chances for afternoon thunderstorm activity across eastern NM Wednesday and Thursday. Central portions along the central mountain chain and the Rio Grande Valley will be in flux with likely good overnight recoveries with drying conditions during the afternoons. Friday sees drier westerlies punch eastward toward the TX line before higher low-level moisture returns to eastern NM next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 68 39 75 43 / 20 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 64 30 73 37 / 50 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 67 37 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 68 34 74 36 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 66 38 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 72 37 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 72 39 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 76 47 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 71 42 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 75 37 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 80 41 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 57 31 67 37 / 60 0 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 69 46 70 51 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 73 39 72 43 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 38 70 43 / 0 0 0 30 Red River....................... 54 32 61 35 / 0 0 5 40 Angel Fire...................... 62 26 63 31 / 0 0 10 40 Taos............................ 68 35 72 42 / 0 0 0 20 Mora............................ 69 37 70 42 / 0 0 0 30 Espanola........................ 77 43 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 72 45 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 76 43 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 79 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 53 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 49 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 81 50 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 86 47 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 80 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 83 46 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 81 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 83 46 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 77 50 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 80 50 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 88 53 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 73 46 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 76 47 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 76 44 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 40 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 74 42 70 45 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 78 45 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 76 45 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 79 53 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 73 48 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 72 30 63 37 / 0 5 0 40 Raton........................... 76 35 68 40 / 0 0 0 40 Springer........................ 78 37 70 42 / 0 0 0 40 Las Vegas....................... 73 37 69 43 / 0 0 0 40 Clayton......................... 83 38 68 42 / 0 0 0 40 Roy............................. 78 40 69 43 / 0 0 0 40 Conchas......................... 88 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 40 Santa Rosa...................... 84 45 77 47 / 0 0 0 40 Tucumcari....................... 91 46 79 49 / 0 0 0 40 Clovis.......................... 89 46 80 50 / 0 0 0 10 Portales........................ 91 46 80 50 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 88 47 82 50 / 0 0 0 40 Roswell......................... 92 54 86 57 / 0 0 0 20 Picacho......................... 83 51 84 51 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 80 49 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106-109-121>126. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ210-212>216-223-227>234. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24  958 FXUS63 KOAX 181124 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 624 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for more severe weather on Monday, mainly across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Large hail, damaging winds, strong tornadoes, and flash flooding will all be possible. - Cooler weather moves in on Tuesday with potential for morning frost for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday. - Another active pattern may set up going into next weekend with chances for more storms, and possibly severe weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The line of storms has cleared east of the area but much of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa remain under the stratiform rain shield with some embedded weak thunderstorms. This likely won't completely clear until closer to 7am Monday morning. Going into Monday we're going to be watching to see where the cold front stalls, which will help determine our area of potential severe weather Monday evening. Monday will start out cloudy, with scattered light rain showers across much of the area north and west of the cold front stalled across our area. Through the late morning into the afternoon we'll see clouds gradually clear in areas south and east of the cold front. Areas north of the cold front will stay cloudy. The upper-level shortwave arrives, kicking off storm initiation around 2-4PM. Storms that develop in the warm sector will have ample instability and shear to grow into discrete supercells with potential for large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes. Expect similar storm evolution, growing into a QLCS with embedded supercells, which exits our area by 10PM. Several CAMs show a second line of storms which develops around 8-9PM over our western counties and moves through potentially bringing another chance for severe hail and damaging winds. These storms will be elevated in nature, but may still have 1500 J/kg of elevated MUCAPE to work with. This second line clears by midnight, bringing an end to the long, several day stretch of severe weather. We'll see the cold front clear well to the south and east of our area by Tuesday, putting a cooler Canadian air mass in place across the region. Tuesday will start out cloudy once again, but really clear by the afternoon as high pressure builds over our area. High temperatures on Tuesday will only reach into the upper 50s to mid 60s. With clear skies and nearly calm winds, this lends to potential for frost early Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 30s for northeast Nebraska to low 40s across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Cooler weather holds into Wednesday though we do see a reversal to southerly winds and start to advect moisture back into the region. An upper-level shortwave could potentially bring a few showers to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the ensembles haven't picked up on this latest change in the deterministic guidance. In any case, this wouldn't be anything impactful. A better chance for showers and storms moves in Thursday as the longwave trough that's been nearly stationary over the western US shifts eastward toward our area. With temperatures still in the sixties for highs, I wouldn't anticipate much of a severe weather threat with this system for our area. Temperatures start to rebound on Friday though as we see enhanced warm air advection ahead of a deepening surface low which develops on the lee side of the Rockies over eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Depending on the track of this system, we could potentially see more active weather next weekend with several chances for storms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A complex aviation forecast is set out, with MVFR toIFR conditions expected to quickly take hold for the remainder of the area terminals, with the worst of the restrictions lasting through the better part of the morning hours, driven by lower ceilings. Winds will be on the increase later this afternoon and evening, with a very short distance between northerly winds and south-southeasterly winds to the east of KOMA. Strong storms are anticipated to spread northward from southeast Nebraska late this afternoon into the evening hours. We've expanded the time that thunder covers in the TAFs, due to increasing confidence that widespread thunder activity will linger past 00z. KOFK looks to dodge thunder chances with rain early this evening, with the back edge of the activity sweeping through and bringing improving ceilings through tomorrow morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NEZ065-066-068-078- 088>093. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Petersen  019 FXUS61 KBTV 181122 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 722 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 627 AM EDT Monday... A quick update to the forecast was made to better reflect the current showers and thunderstorms moving across the area this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... 1. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue for the first half of the week, with high temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and 80s. Meanwhile, lake and river water temperatures remain dangerously cold across the region, and breezes on Lake Champlain may result in rough lake conditions. 2. Above normal temperatures are expected for the first half of the week ahead. 3. Cooler and drier conditions are favored Thursday through Friday before a transition back to seasonable temperatures and a wetter pattern. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Building high pressure across the region will allow for unseasonable warmth to continue for the first portion of the week. A warm front lifting across the region this morning may bring a few chances of showers this morning, but as the day progresses drier conditions are expected to prevail. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to climb into the upper 70s and 80s areawide. Despite the extremely warm air temperatures, water temperatures are still quite frigid, so any recreators should be sure to take the proper precautions, including wearing a life jacket. In addition to the warm temperatures, southerly winds will continue to be a bit breezy throughout the day, especially in the Champlain Valley and along the lake due to channeled flow. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect, with additional details in the Marine section below Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, with high temperatures climbing into the 80s and near 90 under southwesterly flow. These temperatures will be the warmest of the year so far, especially after a cool start to the month, so it is important to remember to stay safe in warmer temperatures by staying hydrated and take frequent breaks if working outside. Dewpoints will also be trending upwards going into Tuesday, making it feel quite humid especially for this time of year. The warmth and humidity will result in increasing instability, which will support the development of showers and possible thunderstorms for Tuesday, which could impact how warm temperatures climb during the day Tuesday. A cold front is expected to cross the region on Wednesday, which will impact how warm we can get that day. At the moment, highs in the upper 60s to mid 80s look likely, with central and southern Vermont getting the warmest before the cold front and associated precipitation arrive. In addition to warmth during the days, our lows likely won't fall below the upper 50s and 60s until the cold front arrives, providing only some relief from heat overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2: The warm and humidity environment ahead of an approaching cold front will allow for increased chances of thunderstorm develop Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest CAM guidance shows plenty of instability across the region, with surface CAPE values anywhere from 500 to 1500 J/kg, with temperatures in the 80s to near 90 and dewpoints in the 60s. Forcing will be mainly from an upper level weak wave and its potential interactions with topography, while surface forcing looks minimal Tuesday afternoon into the overnight period, and mid level lapse rates don't look overly impressive. The primary hazard with any strong to severe storms that do develop look to be damaging winds. SPC has placed much of the region a Slight Risk for severe weather, so be sure to monitor the forecast especially if you have any outdoor plans. The main cold front looks to drop across the region on Wednesday, bringing higher chances of precipitation with it. As we get closer to the event, the timing of the cold front or fronts should become more set. Should the front be delayed, the potential for stronger storms would increase during the day on Wednesday with more time to destabilize. KEY MESSAGE 3: Temperatures trend much cooler Thursday behind Wednesday's front with northwest flow resulting in cold air advection and a return to highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds slow overnight with skies clearing; this may be a period of concern for some frost outside the Champlain Valley with lows in the mid/upper 30s for many locations, and low 40s for the Champlain Valley. Conditions are favored to remain dry into Friday with temperatures rising back to seasonal averages in the mid/upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Models begin to split on precipitation timing heading into the weekend. Consensus maintains some chances of showers increasing Saturday with more widespread rain Sunday. However, a number of models are beginning to hold onto the ridge longer delaying precipitation onset until the late weekend. Either way, a pattern shift to deep return flow from the Gulf Coast northeastward into the Northeast is appearing probable. This flow pattern would result in multiple days of rain potential once it sets up. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...Showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving through northern New York and Vermont this morning bringing periods of MVFR/IFR VIS during burst of rainfall. SLK may be tapering off first by 12-13Z. Otherwise, these showers will continue through 15Z, but possibly longer for EFK. A lljet will sweep through in the same time frame promoting some LLWS for MSS/SLK/PBG/EFK. Surface winds at PBG could gust 20-30kts at times with favorable off- lake, channeled flow while most other terminals see gusts around 20kts. Gusts drop by 00Z with clouds thickening late in the period as a diffluent flow pattern moves over the region with some increasing elevated instability. A few showers will be possible after 06Z, but widespread LLWS will return as the next lljet moves into the region 00-12Z. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Channel southerly flow will result in winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon, with even higher gusts possible. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer AVIATION...Boyd MARINE...Kremer  051 FXUS61 KCLE 181127 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 727 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Trended high temperatures up a degree or two for today and Tuesday in central and eastern portions of the area. The Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms has been expanded across northern Ohio into Northwest Pennsylvania for this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The hottest temperatures of the year arrive today and continue on Tuesday. The heat will break behind a cold front on Wednesday with below normal temperatures continuing into Thursday. 2) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Northwest Ohio and across the northern counties this afternoon and evening. The potential for severe thunderstorms returns on Tuesday afternoon with greater coverage of storms expected. Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and hail are the primary concerns with severe thunderstorms. 3) Unsettled conditions are expected heading into the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The local area resides in the warm sector today with a ridge over the Appalachians and 500mb heights of 585dm. A southwesterly pressure gradient supports warm advection with 925mb temperatures reaching 24-25C. Winds are expected to gust to 20-25 mph in the east and up to 30 mph in the west which will help to mix out dewpoints and keep humidity/heat index values in check. The high temperature forecast was raised by 1-3 degrees from north central Ohio into Northwest Pennsylvania for this afternoon with highs expected in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees and heat index values only running about a degree higher. With that said, this is the first near 90 degree day of the season and people will likely feel the effects of heat more easily. Several climate sites are forecast to be within a degree or two of record values(see the climate section below). The temperature forecast for Tuesday is a little more tricky as we have to contend with increasing cloud cover and higher chances of precipitation during the afternoon. Dewpoints also trend up closer to the mid 60s so humidity will be more noticeable. Due to the increasing clouds and moisture, temperatures will likely top out a couple degrees lower than Monday but heat index will be virtually the same. The brief bout of near record highs will abruptly end on Wednesday behind a strong cold front. 850mb temperatures fall by 11-12C in 24 hours with a northwesterly flow off the lake. High temperatures are forecast to be 20-25 degrees cooler by Wednesday and remain cool on Thursday. Temperatures do gradually trend warmer heading into the holiday weekend but will be impacted by chances for precipitation. KEY MESSAGE 2... Convection is ongoing this morning from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan extending southwest to Iowa ahead of low pressure located over western Wisconsin. A moist and unstable airmass advances eastward into the Central Great Lakes today as the trough over the Great Basin shifts east into the Plains states. Leading shortwave energy across northern Wisconsin tends to weaken while another shortwave is expected to move across Indiana and western Ohio later today. While we start the day capped, mixed layer CAPE of 800-1100 may sneak into northwest Ohio late this afternoon ahead of the shortwave which comes with increasing shear values. The better lift skirts Lake Erie and the lakeshore counties into this evening and may have to monitor for a few stronger storms moving east from Toledo towards Erie in the 4-9 PM window. While activity is generally expected to dissipate for the overnight hours, a moist and weakly unstable airmass resides overhead tonight so kept a low pop in the forecast through Tuesday morning. On Tuesday surface low pressure is forecast to move northeast across Lake Superior with a cold front extending south through the Central Great Lakes. A pre-frontal trough with moderate instability moves into NW Ohio during the afternoon on Tuesday. Expecting good coverage of showers and thunderstorms to develop west of the I-71 corridor during the afternoon with around 2000 J/kg of ML CAPE and 20-30 knots of bulk shear. Thunderstorms will continue eastward through the evening. This looks to present a scattered wind and hail threat for Tuesday afternoon and evening from about 2-10 PM. Storm relative helicity values are slightly higher in the northeast with good veering of the flow with height and the Storm Prediction Center has included a low end tornado threat for that area. Rain will linger along the cold front Tuesday night into early Wednesday with a drying trend through the day on Wednesday as broad high pressure expands south of Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGE 3... Confidence in pattern evolution is low heading into the upcoming holiday weekend. Models depict southwesterly flow and moisture advection later Friday into Saturday ahead of a trough approaching from the Plains and a ridge along the East Coast. This will likely result in an unsettled pattern with periods of showers and thunderstorms. Timing is difficult this far out but could see the first round of precipitation Friday night into Saturday then additional precipitation possible later in the day on Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Mainly VFR expected for the TAF period but with some convective potential. Convection will likely develop to the west this afternoon and spread towards TOL and FDY early this evening before weakening. Have a window of -SHRA with a TEMPO for TSRA with gusty winds and more significant restrictions at TOL and FDY early this evening. It is uncertain how far east thunderstorms will get before dissipating, so included a PROB30 as far east as CLE and MFD for lower confidence potential. Once thunderstorms dissipate this evening, a decaying batch of lighter rain showers may continue east-northeast for a few more hours. Outside of convective potential, afternoon cumulus will likely produce a SCT sky around 040-050 at times today. Winds are generally 5-10kt out of the south early this morning. Winds will shift south-southwest and increase to 12-18kt with gusts to around 25kt late this morning into this afternoon. Winds lose their gustiness tonight. There is low-level wind shear potential tonight beneath a 40kt low-level jet, especially across Northwest OH. For now included LLWS tonight for TOL and FDY where the strongest jet will be oriented. The low-level jet is marginally strong and timing of the surface decoupling is uncertain, so didn't include farther east yet. Outlook...Non-VFR likely at times in showers/thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. Non-VFR possible in showers on Friday. && .MARINE... South winds are slightly elevated at 10-15kt early this morning and will continue today. Gusts up to 25kt are possible in the nearshore waters west of Cleveland this afternoon. Thunderstorms may reach western Lake Erie this evening, and could pack brief wind gusts over 35kt before dissipating while tracking east. Otherwise, southerly winds will remain slightly elevated at 10-15kt tonight into Tuesday. Winds increase a bit further to 15-20kt Tuesday afternoon, with gusts potentially up to 30kt in the nearshore waters west of Cleveland. Small craft headlines remain possible for Tuesday. There is additional thunderstorm potential spreading from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front, again with potential for storms over the lake to pack strong wind gusts over 35kt. Winds whip around to the north late Tuesday night into Wednesday behind the cold front, and gradually shift more northeasterly Wednesday into Thursday and more easterly for Friday. These winds are currently forecast to be around 15kt which would bring choppiness, but there is a chance winds trend up closer to 20kt Thursday into Friday, which could warrant some small craft/beach hazards headlines. && .CLIMATE... High temperatures today and Tuesday will approach record values. The following are the records for May 18 and 19 at local climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889) 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan  215 FXUS61 KBOX 181130 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 730 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence of record heat Tuesday for parts of southern New England && .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures near the coast today but continued very warm in the interior. - Record heat likely Tuesday for portions of SNE with hot conditions lingering into Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon with better chance for scattered strong to severe storms on Wednesday. - Cooler, more seasonable temperatures late in the week. Increasing risk for showers next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler temperatures near the coast today but continued very warm in the interior. Weak backdoor front slides south of the coast early this morning. This shallow boundary is expected to lift back to the north this afternoon or mix out as winds become southerly. Highs in the interior will soar into the 80s again, warmest in the CT valley where upper 80s to near 90 is possible as 925 mb temps increase to 22-23C. Sea-breezes will keep coastal locations mostly in the 70s. Bulk of the instability this afternoon will be to the west but some instability is forecast to get into western MA/CT where a spot shower is possible. Otherwise dry weather. KEY MESSAGE 2...Record heat likely Tuesday for portions of SNE with hot conditions lingering into Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon with better chance for scattered strong to severe storms on Wednesday. An anomalous upper level ridge builds over the region Tue with rather warm low level temps. 850 mb temps are 2-3SD above normal which is close to the maximum relative to CFSR climatology for this time of year suggesting very anomalous heat. Actual 850 mb temps forecast to be 18-20C with 925 mb temps 24-26C. This suggests highs in the mid 90s away from the south coast with potential for some upper 90s in the CT valley. SW flow will keep temps in the upper 70s and low 80s along the immediate south coast. Dewpoints are forecast to reach lower 60s but with mixing could drop into the 50s in the interior which would keep heat indices below advisory criteria. This is our first heat of the season, so be sure to use caution and hydrate/cool accordingly. Despite upper ridge breaking down and becoming suppressed to the south, another hot day Wed as thermal ridge ahead of cold front lingers across SNE. Low level temps cool slightly and more cloud cover expected but still hot with highs 90-95 away from the south coast. Moderate instability is expected to develop Tue afternoon with CAPES 1000-2000+ J/kg. While large scale forcing is limited under the ridge there is a weak shortwave on the periphery of the ridge that approaches so can't rule out a few storms Tue afternoon in unstable environment. Deep layer shear is relatively weak but localized strong gusts are possible in any storms given inverted V profile. The greater risk for t-storms will be Wed afternoon as cold front moves into the region which is favorable timing to take advantage of diurnal max in instability along with deeper moisture profile. Deep layer shear values are more favorable for storm organization so can't rule out scattered strong to severe storms with damaging wind the primary risk although high PWAT airmass will support localized downpours and heavy rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler, more seasonable temperatures late in the week. Increasing risk for showers next weekend. Cooler airmass behind the cold front for Thu and Fri with near seasonable or slightly below temps. High pres builds in for the end of the week bringing dry conditions. Then the high retreats next weekend with a frontal boundary approachingfrom the south and ensemble guidance suggest increasing risk for showers next weekend but details are uncertain. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: No significant changes since previous update. Mainly VFR conditions through Wed. However, stratus and fog will likely develop over the ocean as SW flow brings higher dewpoints over cooler ocean and this may impact portions of the south coast and Cape/Islands tonight. LLWS risk for all terminals tonight heading into early Tue morning. Isolated t-storms possible Tue afternoon. Light E-NE wind becoming S 10-20 kt this afternoon. S-SW wind 5-10 kt tonight increasing Tue with gusts to 25 kt developing. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. Seabreeze today with wind shift to S late today or early evening. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. SHRA likely, isolated TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday through Friday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Tuesday...High confidence. Easterly winds this morning becoming SE-S this afternoon with speeds below 20 kt. S-SW wind 10-20 kt tonight increasing to 15-25 kt Tue. Seas building to 4-6 ft. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Tue May 19... BOS 90/1949 BDL 94/1962 PVD 91/2017 ORH 92/1962 Record Highs for Wed May 20... BOS 91/1996 BDL 99/1996 PVD 95/1996 ORH 91/1903 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KJC AVIATION...KJC/Hrencecin MARINE...KJC CLIMATE...KJC  421 FXUS63 KLOT 181133 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 633 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday, some of which could be strong to severe mainly during the afternoon hours. - Summer-like warmth and breezy winds at times will prevail through Tuesday, then cooler temperatures return for the middle of the week. - Milder weather returns heading into the weekend, though with at least intermittent shower/thunderstorm potential. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Regional radar mosaic shows a linear MCS moving across the Mississippi River into western WI/IL early this morning. There has been a notable weakening trend to the convection over the past few hours as the complex propagates into a region of decreasing deep- layer shear and low-level instability, though storms should continue to spread eastward this morning along a composite outflow boundary at the leading edge of the convection. In fact, recent radar trends indicate a few new cells developing ahead of the line near the Quad Cities, perhaps aided by enhanced ascent associated with one or more an apparent MCVs near the IA/IL/MO border. Gusty winds of 30-40 mph with the outflow and some small hail are possible with these storms early this morning, though the overall threat of organized severe weather appears low for the next several hours. Later this morning however, diurnal warming and associated destabilization along the east/southeast periphery of the complex remnants and outflow boundary may support renewed development/strengthening of convection with more of a severe threat into this afternoon. Though depending on how far the outflow boundary makes it this morning, this would likely be across the south/far east portions of the forecast area. Farther north/northwest, lingering stratiform rain and cloud cover this morning looks to limit destabilization and recent CAM trends have been consistently dry there during the day/evening. Farther to the west, early morning GOES vapor imagery indicates another mid-level short wave rounding the base of a western CONUS long-wave trough. Widespread strong convection is progged to develop late this afternoon and evening across KS/NE/IA once again in response, eventually growing upscale into another eastward- propagating linear MCS. Similarly to this morning, CAM runs continue to depict a similar weakening of this system as it reaches the Mississippi River and spreads into WI/IL early Tuesday morning with associated relatively low severe potential. The lingering MCS cold pool footprint and residual cloudiness will likely delay destabilization into midday Tuesday, though additional storm development appears possible across the southeast half of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening as the cold front finally pushes through the forecast area. Stronger mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the aforementioned short wave will likely support enough storm organization for a hail/wind threat during this time. Following the cold front, surface high pressure is progged to build east into the western Great Lakes region Wednesday and Thursday. Dry, but breezy and cooler weather is expected both days, with temps mainly in the 60s, but only in the 50s near Lake Michigan with northeast-east flow off the lake. Nighttime lows in the 40s are expected. The high then drifts off to the east Thursday night, with the upper level pattern favoring a series of mid-level disturbances tracking through the area Friday into the weekend. This will support milder temperatures, but also some occasional shower/thunderstorm chances into the holiday weekend. Ratzer && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - Line of showers and storms will move through the terminals this morning. Strongest storms may produce locally gusty winds around 30 kts. - Period of gusty southeast winds behind the rain this morning before winds turn back southwest with gusts around 25 kts. - Another period of showers and possible thunderstorms late tonight into Tuesday morning. A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to advance eastward across northwest and western IL this morning. While the line has been gradually weakening, newer showers/storms have been developing ahead of the outflow from the main line and that trend is expected to continue. Therefore, expect a 2-3 hour period of thunder at the terminals this morning which will result in some MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Additionally, the stronger storms will be capable of producing locally gusty winds upwards of 30 kts and maybe some small hail. Behind the line are a couple of small scale areas of low pressure. The low over northeast MO is expected to lift northeast into north-central IL and northwest IN later this morning which should help in either redeveloping or maintaining any ongoing showers and thunderstorms. Given the low's trajectory it appears the greater potential for any thunderstorms with the low will be south of I-80 but cannot fully rule out an isolated strike or two as far north as ORD and DPA. Therefore, have opted to introduce a VCTS for this potential at the Chicago terminals. Once this area of showers/storms begins to exit there is also a wake low that has developed in IA. While this low shouldn't result in more rain, it does look to bring a period of gusty southeast winds around 25-30 kts but higher gusts are certainly possible. After the wake low moves through around midday/early afternoon, winds will return from the southwest with persistent gusts around 25 kts through the rest of the afternoon. Overall dry conditions should prevail at the terminals through this afternoon, but there remains a 15-20% chance for some isolated showers or storms to redevelop. Since the confidence in any afternoon activity remains low have opted to forego any formal TAF mentions for now. Heading into tonight, gusts will diminish after sunset but will still remain breezy with upper teen to lower 20 kt gusts. At the same time more showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across IA along a cold front and eventually will move into northern IL and northwest IN towards daybreak. Given that these showers/storms should be arriving in a decaying state confidence on thunder reaching the Chicago terminals is low so for now have just maintained PROB30s for showers here. That said, did opt to add a PROB30 for thunder at RFD late tonight into Tuesday morning where confidence is slightly higher. Otherwise, expect mostly VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  358 FXUS64 KJAN 181131 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 631 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week. - Isolated severe storms are possible in the northwest Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Through Tonight: Continued warmer than normal through the period with afternoon rain chances limited to the southern half of the CWA. Surface ridging from the east will remain across the Gulf coast states while our flow aloft remains southwesterly downstream of an upper level trough swinging across the Four Corners region. This will help maintain a warm moist airmass over our CWA. Latest PWATs were running just above an inch and three quarters with surface dew points being observed in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Wl start off with some patchy fog in the southeast but daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and mainly south of Interstate 20. The distinct diurnal nature of the convection will result in the convection dying off rapidly around sunset. The probabilities of fog development are lower for Tuesday morning but patchy light early morning fog is possible in the southeast again. /22/ Tuesday through Sunday: A frontal boundary will continue to progress towards the southeast before stalling north of the CWA. Ongoing showers and storm chances are expected through the extended period. Highs (ranging in the 80s) will remain near seasonal averages and lows (upper 60s/near 70 degrees) will run +5-8 degrees above seasonal averages over the extended as well. Precip chances ranging from 40% to 95% with greatest chances on Wednesday (95%) and Friday (90%) with 80-95% are likely. On Tuesday, the boundary gradually push into the area, interaction with the present deep-layer shear and CAPE near the MS Delta, may promote a few severe storms in the area. As a result, a 'Marginal' risk for severe weather will be possible over the MS Delta region Tuesday. A HWO graphic will be introduced to reflect the severe risk area. As the boundary stalls, multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse the region, providing addition moisture and increasing rain chances Wednesday into the weekend. Organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be as favorable, however, an isolated severe storm or two may be possible. Estimate rainfall amounts may range from 1.0-3.5 inches over the course of this week and the weekend. Received rainfall will help alleviate the ongoing drought over the ArkLaMiss region. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 LIFR vsby was observed at HBG at 11z but a mix of MVFR/IFR cigs wl prevail elsewhere cntrl and south while the northern TAF sites remain in VFR through 15Z. After 15Z VFR conditions are expected areawide and a gusty se-s wind 18-20kts wl develop by 16Z. These gusts will subside by 23Z. There is a low chance of isolated SHRA/TSRA in vcty of HEZ after 19Z and until 23Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail in the north tonight but MVFR/IFR cigs wl be psbl cntrl and south again by 10Z. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 87 72 88 70 / 10 10 40 50 Meridian 88 70 89 68 / 10 0 20 30 Vicksburg 89 73 89 70 / 10 10 40 60 Hattiesburg 88 71 88 69 / 30 0 20 0 Natchez 89 73 89 71 / 30 20 50 60 Greenville 90 74 90 70 / 10 10 40 60 Greenwood 89 73 90 70 / 10 10 30 70 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SW/22JAN-940932  364 FXUS64 KJAN 181131 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 631 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week. - Isolated severe storms are possible in the northwest Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Through Tonight: Continued warmer than normal through the period with afternoon rain chances limited to the southern half of the CWA. Surface ridging from the east will remain across the Gulf coast states while our flow aloft remains southwesterly downstream of an upper level trough swinging across the Four Corners region. This will help maintain a warm moist airmass over our CWA. Latest PWATs were running just above an inch and three quarters with surface dew points being observed in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Wl start off with some patchy fog in the southeast but daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and mainly south of Interstate 20. The distinct diurnal nature of the convection will result in the convection dying off rapidly around sunset. The probabilities of fog development are lower for Tuesday morning but patchy light early morning fog is possible in the southeast again. /22/ Tuesday through Sunday: A frontal boundary will continue to progress towards the southeast before stalling north of the CWA. Ongoing showers and storm chances are expected through the extended period. Highs (ranging in the 80s) will remain near seasonal averages and lows (upper 60s/near 70 degrees) will run +5-8 degrees above seasonal averages over the extended as well. Precip chances ranging from 40% to 95% with greatest chances on Wednesday (95%) and Friday (90%) with 80-95% are likely. On Tuesday, the boundary gradually push into the area, interaction with the present deep-layer shear and CAPE near the MS Delta, may promote a few severe storms in the area. As a result, a 'Marginal' risk for severe weather will be possible over the MS Delta region Tuesday. A HWO graphic will be introduced to reflect the severe risk area. As the boundary stalls, multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse the region, providing addition moisture and increasing rain chances Wednesday into the weekend. Organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be as favorable, however, an isolated severe storm or two may be possible. Estimate rainfall amounts may range from 1.0-3.5 inches over the course of this week and the weekend. Received rainfall will help alleviate the ongoing drought over the ArkLaMiss region. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 LIFR vsby was observed at HBG at 11z but a mix of MVFR/IFR cigs wl prevail elsewhere cntrl and south while the northern TAF sites remain in VFR through 15Z. After 15Z VFR conditions are expected areawide and a gusty se-s wind 18-20kts wl develop by 16Z. These gusts will subside by 23Z. There is a low chance of isolated SHRA/TSRA in vcty of HEZ after 19Z and until 23Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail in the north tonight but MVFR/IFR cigs wl be psbl cntrl and south again by 10Z. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 87 72 88 70 / 10 10 40 50 Meridian 88 70 89 68 / 10 0 20 30 Vicksburg 89 73 89 70 / 10 10 40 60 Hattiesburg 88 71 88 69 / 30 0 20 0 Natchez 89 73 89 71 / 30 20 50 60 Greenville 90 74 90 70 / 10 10 40 60 Greenwood 89 73 90 70 / 10 10 30 70 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/SW/22  360 FXUS64 KMOB 181131 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 631 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - A HIGH risk of rip currents is now in effect for all area beaches Tuesday afternoon. - Rain chances increase by mid to late next week, especially over the northwestern portion of the forecast area. - Localized patchy for will be possible Monday night into early Tuesday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Overall the forecast remains on track. The only change was to include a high risk of rip currents at all area beaches on Tuesday afternoon as the combination of increasing southerly flow and strong tides will likely result in dangerous rip currents at all area beaches. Conditions may quickly deteriorate during the afternoon on Tuesday as the tide begins to recede. BB-8 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Dry weather conditions generally prevail for most areas today outside of perhaps an isolated shower or storm over the interior this afternoon, best chances near the Highway 84 corridor. Rain chances gradually increase into mid and late week as upper ridging weakens and southwest flow aloft works its way into the area along with several weak shortwaves. This should be enough to generate isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage each day starting Wednesday. Rain chances continue to look like they will be best this weekend as a weak upper trough pushes across the region. Overall for those who see storms it will be a beneficial rainfall to continue chipping away at our ongoing drought across the forecast area. We will probably see some patchy fog across portions of the area through daybreak this morning and again Tuesday morning. The better signal for fog, some locally dense, appears to be Tuesday morning. Fog will generally lift pretty quickly after daybreak. Outside of the rain chances, temperatures will be warm near or just above normal for this time of year on both highs and lows throughout the week. Highs generally fall in the 85 to 90 range, warmest Wednesday where some spots across the FL panhandle into south-central AL make it to the lower 90's. Lows warm with time from upper 50's to middle 60's this morning to middle 60's to lower 70's by mid week. The rip current risk remains Moderate today, becoming High Tuesday before dropping back to a Low to Moderate risk Wednesday into late week. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 IFR to MVFR ceilings have developed across the area this morning but will quickly give way to MVFR and VFR ceilings this morning. Winds will be out of the south-southeast around 10 knots gusting to 20 knots. An isolated shower or storm cannot be rule out this afternoon; however, any impacts to aviation will be minimal. MVFR ceilings will develop this evening with some patchy fog possible mainly across inland areas of southeastern Mississippi after midnight. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through Thursday. Seas will build slightly by Monday and Tuesday then diminish Wednesday into Thursday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 83 70 87 69 / 20 10 0 0 Pensacola 82 71 84 70 / 10 0 0 0 Destin 80 71 83 70 / 10 0 10 0 Evergreen 89 65 91 67 / 30 10 20 0 Waynesboro 89 70 89 68 / 10 0 20 10 Camden 89 67 89 68 / 30 10 10 10 Crestview 88 65 91 66 / 20 0 20 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  382 FXUS64 KOUN 181132 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 632 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - There is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms from this afternoon through Tuesday. - Critical fire weather conditions are possible for far western Oklahoma into western north Texas this afternoon - Very warm temperatures are expected today with cooler weather by Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A negatively-tilted trough will lift into the Central Plains this afternoon with a trailing dryline located along the 100th meridian. With the synoptic-scale forcing/ascent lifting to the northeast, thunderstorm development along the dryline remains uncertain as warm mid-level temperatures at the base of the elevated mixed layer (EML) will result in capping inversion at ~750 mb. In addition, low-level convergence along the dryline will be minimal/weak with the surface low and attendant backed winds to the northeast of Oklahoma. The highest chance for development along the dryline is across northwest Oklahoma, which is in closest proximity to the wave. Even so, the chance of development during the late afternoon/early evening is only around 20 to 30%. The chance of development decreases with southward extent along the dryline--but isn't zero. If thunderstorms develop, instability and vertical wind shear will be sufficient for supercells with CAPE between 3000-3500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear between 30 to 35 knots. By evening, the low- level jet will amplify with 50 to 60 knot winds. The strengthening low-level jet will increase low-level wind shear, resulting in enlarged, clockwise- curved hodographs that will be favorable for tornadoes--including strong tornadoes. As a result, if there are any ongoing supercells in the evening, they will have an increasing tornado potential. In addition to the dryline, another feature will be a subtle wave embedded in the subtropical jet stream (STJ) that will lift northward into south central/southeast Oklahoma. This wave may result in a few showers and thunderstorms today. While it appears likely this activity will be elevated and associated with isentropic/ascent warm air advection, there is a low chance this activity could become surface-based with a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. To the west of the dryline, fire weather conditions will be a concern in the afternoon. Hot temperatures, gusty southerly winds, and low humidity will result in critical fire weather conditions. The worst fire weather conditions will be across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. However, far western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western north Texas will be right on the edge. Depending on the exact location of the dryline, there will likely be a very tight relative humidity gradient near the 100th meridian (Oklahoma/Texas state line). Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning except for Jackson County. It could very well be a situation where the fire weather conditions are worse in the western part of the counties compared to the eastern part of the counties. In addition to the risk of severe and fire weather, a tight surface pressure gradient will result in breezy southerly winds today. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A cold front will enter northern Oklahoma late this evening, which will likely result in a line of thunderstorms developing along the front. The line of thunderstorms will move to the southeast Monday night into Tuesday morning with the cold front with a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts and embedded, QLCS tornadoes would be the potential hazards. However, the tendency for the cold front to undercut the line of thunderstorms and unfavorable shear vectors/line orientation should reduce the QLCS tornado risk. Cooler weather and northerly winds are expected in the front's wake Tuesday afternoon. Another wave is forecast to approach late Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will result in increasing isentropic ascent/warm air advection to the north of the cold front. Widespread elevated showers and thunderstorms are possible with the potential hazards being heavy rainfall/flooding and hail. The location with the highest chance for heavy rainfall is south central/southeast Oklahoma. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 An active subtropical jet stream (STJ) with subtle waves lifting into the Southern Plains will result in a daily chance of showers/storms through the end the week into next weekend. At this time, there is no day that has an appreciable risk for severe weather. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable for late May. Mahale && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR conditions are forecast to gradually lift towards mid-day with strong southerly winds gusting up to 40 to 50 mph at some locations. A cold front moves through late Monday night into Tuesday morning and shower/storm chances will increase by late evening over northern Oklahoma and progress southward overnight. Chances of severe storms are low during the day and increase with the frontal passage tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 86 61 71 55 / 10 80 40 80 Hobart OK 93 60 75 54 / 10 60 30 60 Wichita Falls TX 92 68 82 58 / 20 50 70 70 Gage OK 96 49 73 46 / 10 20 0 10 Ponca City OK 89 58 70 53 / 10 80 30 30 Durant OK 88 74 84 64 / 30 20 90 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>027- 034>038. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-009-014-021-033-034. TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01  376 FXUS64 KTSA 181132 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 632 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 621 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Windy with isolated to scattered showers and storms through Monday evening. Limited severe risk. - Numerous showers and storms Monday night into NE OK spreading southward Tuesday. Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall. - Cooler temperatures Wednesday with continued low rain chances through the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Monday Night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Strong low level jet has developed across the local region with minimal boundary layer decoupling allowing for periodic strong wind gusts through the early Monday morning hours. Weak disturbance lifting from N TX into W AR along with ongoing strong moist advection and a weakly capped airmass warrants low shower and storm chances through Monday morning primarily far E OK and NW AR. A lull in rain chances appears likely Monday afternoon through Monday evening though strong gusty winds will continue. Focus will become the cold front and storms developing across KS Monday evening and then spreading south into NE OK near or slightly after midnight. Fcst soundings suggest the line of storms will have a time frame to remain severe into NE OK Monday night before encountering stronger inhibition prompting a weakening trend. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Showers and storms will be ongoing early Tuesday with a continued southward advance through the day. An uptick in storm intensity is possible through the day Tuesday before storms clear the forecast area, however the bulk of severe weather is likely to focus south and west of the forecast area by Tuesday evening. Heavy rainfall is possible through the day Tuesday however latest guidance remains progressive with the line of storms which would keep that threat localized. Showers and storms are likely to persist into the day Wednesday as another round of lift interacts with the elevated frontal zone across the region. Lesser instability will limit the severe weather risk. Noticeably cooler temps follow the front and persist through mid week. The late week pattern maintains one or more waves passing across the region supporting continued daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Low clouds will continue to expand in coverage this morning, with MVFR cigs becoming increasingly common across E OK and NW AR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the morning and early afternoon hours across much of the area, particularly in SE OK and NW AR. Thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, but a mix of PROB30 and TEMPO groups have been introduced for this potential. Ceilings are likely to improve back to VFR this afternoon as low clouds scatter out and lift. A lull in precipitation is expected late afternoon through evening before a line of storms moves south into the area from Kansas late overnight. Latest guidance suggest these storms will being to move into NE OK and NW AR sites by 08-12z. Widespread southerly LLWS develops this evening and continues through much of tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 87 67 74 58 / 20 80 70 70 FSM 89 72 85 65 / 30 10 80 60 MLC 88 74 82 62 / 20 20 90 60 BVO 88 61 71 53 / 20 80 50 50 FYV 86 72 81 60 / 30 20 90 70 BYV 85 72 82 59 / 30 20 90 70 MKO 87 70 78 59 / 30 30 90 70 MIO 86 67 74 56 / 30 70 80 60 F10 87 70 78 58 / 20 40 8070 HHW 87 72 82 65 / 20 10 90 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>064-067-154- 254-354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...43  397 FXUS65 KBOU 181132 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 532 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and mountain/foothill snow increases in coverage this morning with much colder temperatures arriving. - Accumulating snow for the mountains and the foothills. Only a few wet snowflakes possibly mixed in for the I-25 Corridor. - One last spring freeze possible on some of the plains Monday night. - Delay in the warming and drying trend for the week ahead, but still warmer and drier by Friday - next weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 1222 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 An upper level trough over the Great Basin will move across the area on Mon with favorable mid level ascent thru the aftn hours. At the sfc, upslope flow will be in place which will combine with the upper level trough to produce widespread precip across the area. Snow will occur in the mtns and higher foothills with several inches of accumulation. Have upgraded areas north of I-70 in the mtns to a warning as east facing slopes could see from 12 to 18 inches in some areas. Elsewhere will keep amounts in the advisory range. In the foothills, some of the higher areas may see 4 to 8 inches above 8000 ft with lessor amounts below 8000 ft. By Mon night precip should gradually decrease over the area during the evening hours. Overnight lows late Mon night into early Tue morning may drop down to freezing or slightly below across portions of the plains. For Tue, a disturbance will move across the area late in the aftn thru Tue night. As this feature moves across, there will be another round of precip over the higher terrain and across portions of the plains. Highs on Tue will remain cool as readings stay in the 50's across the plains. Looking ahead to Wed, an unsettled pattern will continue as decent lapse rates will combine with lingering moisture to produce a good chc of showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain and portions of the plains. Most of the activity will occur in the late aftn and early evening hours. Highs will remain below normal as readings only reach the upper 50's to mid 60's across the plains. By Thu into Fri, latest data shows another upper level trough moving southeast towards the area. Not sure about the timing of this system, however, as it moves across should see another good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures both days will be in the mid 60's to lower 70's across the plains. For next weekend, will see a return to a drier and warmer pattern based on latest data. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/... Issued at 518 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Ceilings are currently bouncing between 300ft and 600ft at the TAF sites. These IFR and LIFR conditions are expected to continue through the rest of today and into tomorrow morning. Scattered light rain showers this morning will increase in coverage late this morning and early this afternoon, leading to multiple hours of rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Coverage should start to decrease near the TAF sites around 21Z to 23Z, leaving some scattered showers for the late afternoon and evening. Rain chances will decrease for the overnight period, but there still is a low chance (<30%) that a few showers could stick around. Ceilings will start to lift slightly for Tuesday morning, but they still look to remain below VFR thresholds. Winds today will generally be out of the north or east with periods of gusty winds late this morning at KDEN and KAPA. Variable gusty winds could also accompany any thunderstorms in the area. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ031- 034. Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening forCOZ033. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for COZ038>051. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPK AVIATION...AP  445 FXUS65 KGJT 181133 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 533 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow returns tonight through tomorrow morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the eastern Uinta, Elkhead, and Park Mountains. - Freezing temperatures are expected to impact the Central and Lower Yampa River Basin Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Freeze highlights are in effect. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1039 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 WET AND COLD MONDAY: On Monday, the low which has been driving this active weather pattern will be moving overhead. As temperature take a dive near sunrise behind the associated cold front, near-surface conditions will rapidly moisten up. This should be plenty enough to promote another day of widespread precipitation. In spite of the frontal boundary being draped across the CWA, forcing is overall unimpressive and instability is minimal due to the anticipated morning cloud cover region-wide. So look for Monday's stormy weather to be more stratiform. A few discrete storms cannot be ruled out though, particularly later in the afternoon as cloud cover disperses to a degree. With temperatures dropping though, our focus is shifting away from severe weather potential towards another round of snowfall for our higher elevation locations. Snow levels are generally high (>9,000 ft) across the area, though further north from the eastern Uintas to the northern Colorado mountains, where cooler air has already been settling in, snow levels are expected to drop further (>6,000 ft). Accumulations could near a foot along higher elevation portions of US-191 in the Uintas, and Rabbit Ears Pass has ~50% chance of exceeding 6" of accumulation. Elsewhere in the CWA, snow totals will be lesser, but most mountain ranges are expected to sit at 2-6" of snow by the time the sun rises on Tuesday. FREEZE POTENTIAL: This frigid push brings more than just another round of late season snow, but will also cause more freeze concerns. The coldest conditions will occur on Tuesday morning. Much of the Yampa Valley River Basin is expected to see a hard freeze as a result during this period. Though temperatures begin to warm back up beyond Tuesday, Wednesday morning will also likely see below freezing temperatures in the Yampa River Basin, thus a freeze watch has been issued for CO001 and CO002. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 531 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 TAF forecasts over the next 12 to 18 hours will be compromised with low clouds and lowered visibility at times due to this Spring storm and associated cold front moving through the Rockies. Mountain TAFs may see snow mixed in a times but for the most part rain showers and lower clouds will mix MVFR/IFR conditions in with ILS/VFR through the day. The system will be clearing out by late afternoon with mainly VFR conditions moving in behind. However will need to monitor the threat of lingering low clouds/fog in the wake of the system overnight. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ001-002. Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for COZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ004. UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ023. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  472 FXUS63 KFGF 181134 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers is expected this afternoon through tonight, bringing a two day total of a quarter to half inch for nearly all areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Drizzle and scattered showers continue this morning across the area, along with an increase in north winds. Cloudy skies are expected through the day, with drizzle winding down late this morning. Additional shower activity is expected this afternoon and evening, however, followed by a surge of cooler air. UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Severe potential continues to dwindle in our southeast (Wilkin, Grant, Ottertail, Wadena counties) with a small hail threat the main concern as of now through about 10-11pm. Could see some hail up to dime size but even that feels like a stretch. IN OTHER NEWS ITS RAINING. For the first time since mid to late April for most we are seeing rain totals over a quarter inch which should immensely help to put a damper on blowing dust and fire danger. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...Synopsis... Severe convection potential looks to remain mainly in west- central Minnesota this afternoon/evening as model guidance continues to prog the main surface-based instability barely approaching southern Grant County. Elevated instability remains expected to ascend north of the warm front this afternoon, bringing the potential for elevated showers and thunderstorms across southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Areas that see storms through the evening will have the potential to see rainfall exceed 1 inch. Elsewhere, generally expect rainfall totals between a quarter inch to half inch. For severe convection potential, see the severe section below. Rainfall should exit the region late this evening/early tomorrow morning giving a brief break from precipitation before the main upper trough ejects over the intermountain west. As this trough ejects, it looks increasingly likely that a swath of precipitation will dump a broad swath of at least a quarter of an inch of precipitation. Unfortunately, there looks like there will be a region between where rain falls today and where rain falls tomorrow that could see very limited rainfall amounts, which may exacerbate ongoing dryness. Instability will be well cut off tomorrow so severe thunderstorms and thunderstorms are not expected to develop. The remainder of the period will be characterized by relatively cool temperatures through midweek with frost/freeze potential Wednesday morning. Drier conditions will also return but with flow aloft being relatively weak, the probability for red flag conditions is low. ...SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY... Surface analysis this afternoon shows the warm front roughly situated just north of Sioux Falls. This has allowed intense isentropic ascent over our area, bringing some solid moisture content to the region. This warm front remains expected to propagate northward this afternoon and bringing surface moisture with it. CAM guidance continues to generally prog the surface instability south of our CWA, barely scraping Grant County. Per HREF probabilities, there is only a 10% chance to even see 500 J/kg of SCAPE. MUCAPE also is very closely attached to this warm front and shares similar probabilities as a result. Having said that, shear associated with the front is rather strong, approaching 50+ knots. There will be a brief window this evening (likely at most 1-2 hours) wherein severe convection may impact our west-central Minnesota counties. Any severe convection will most likely be hail as storms are likely to be elevated as storm relative winds in the 0-2km layer are most likely to be due easterly, so it will be difficult to ingest warmer air to the south. If surface-based convection arises, tornadoes can't be ruled out but again this is very unlikely at this time and would require very strong propagation northward in the warm front. The window of severe thunderstorms ends roughly close to midnight at the latest, but should generally be out of the area by 8-10 PM CDT. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 LIFR to IFR ceilings prevail at all TAF sites this morning except KBJI, where MVFR ceilings are being reported. Look for continued low ceilings and drizzle this morning, with cloudy skies and IFR ceilings through much of the period. Showers move back into the area late this afternoon and evening, with the potential for LIFR conditions once more as BR and light rain impact visibility. Shower activity should gradually wind down overnight, however, there is support for continued IFR ceilings heading into Tuesday morning. Winds remain out of the north through the TAF period at all TAF sites. Gusts will range from 25-30 knots at KGFK, KFAR, and KDVL from late this morning through the evening hours. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch/TT DISCUSSION...Perroux AVIATION...Lynch  497 FXUS63 KLMK 181135 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 735 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Today through Tuesday, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s. Some daily max temperature records could be challenged. * This afternoon/evening, showers and/or thunderstorms arrive, especially for our northwestern counties. * A line of strong to severe storms is expected to move through ahead of a cold front on Tuesday, possibly bringing strong winds and hail. The line will weaken as it moves east over the region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 509 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Today, a closed low within an upper trough is located near the Four Corners. East of the trough, southwest flow stretch over the Plains before meeting an upper ridge flowing through the Great Lakes and New England regions. The Lower Ohio Valley sits under this ridge with gusty (20-25 mph) southerly winds being driven by a pressure gradient between a surface high over the Southeast and low pressure that stretches from the western Plains into the Midwest. This sit-up is expected to provide lots of sunshine and WAA to drive high temperatures into the mid 80s to low 90s throughout southern Indiana and central Kentucky. By this afternoon, the southern low level winds will not only drive temperatures warmer, but they will also lift precipitable water values to 1.75-2" over western Kentucky north into western Indiana, and as the remnants of the system currently over Iowa drift southeast towards the CWA, it will have this moisture rich unstable environment to work with to bring showers and thunderstorm to southern Indiana. Moisture is expected to quickly drop off south of the Ohio River, so most of the activity is expected to remain in southern Indiana, and the best chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will be in the far northwestern parts of the CWA, including Dubois County, where thunderstorms could develop ahead of the approaching line. With MLCAPE values around 1,600 J/kg, MUCAPE values near 2,300 J/kg, an inverted "V" sounding with LCLs near 1 km, strong winds and hail could be possible. Deep layer shear is weak around 25 knots, so this could possibly help some hail to melt as it fall back through the column, reducing its size. The high PWATs will also likely drive intense rainfall which could cause ponding of water. There is a limited window for any stronger storms as instability is expected to quickly drop to the southeast. Tonight, any remaining showers and thunderstorms are expected to dissipate. Continued WAA with some cloud cover will help limit cooling, keeping low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 509 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Tomorrow, ahead of an approaching cold front, temperatures are expected to once again climb into the upper 80s to low 90s with another day of gusty WAA. This is expected to drive very high instability in the area of SPC's "Slight" risk. Some areas over southern Indiana could see MLCAPE values near 2,500 J/kg and MUCAPE values near 3,000 J/kg. This would help an expected line of convection ahead of the front to generate strong gusty winds and possibly large hail before weakening as the system pushes off to the east. Current timing has the line reaching Dubois county during the early afternoon. In the following hours, the line would push east through southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Tuesday night, the cold front is expected to reach our southern Indiana counties, but it could be slow getting through central Kentucky, not making it through the CWA until sometime on Wednesday. The front will slowly veer winds towards the north. Temperatures will remain mild Tuesday night falling into the mid to upper 60s, but Wednesday's highs can be expected to see some relief only making it to the mid 70s near Jasper, Indiana to the mid 80s near Clinton County. This will be near normal for many across the CWA. The slow moving front will keep shower and thunderstorm chances across the CWA through Wednesday, but strong storms aren't expected. On Thursday, highs are expected to be slightly below normal, in the low to mid 70s for most. Far southern Kentucky could see the upper 70s. Enjoy it because temperatures begin to inch back up day by day into the mid 80s by Sunday. Precipitation chances remain low but remain as the front sits south of the CWA. Another low pressure system could swing through on Friday, brining a better chance for widespread rain. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 734 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected to remain through the period at most sites, but HNB could see a line of afternoon and/or evening convection. This could bring heavy showers and low VFR ceilings for a limited time. The line is expected to dissipate before reaching SDF, so we will keep monitoring this. Something could be added to SDF in the next TAF. All area TAF sites can expect southerly winds to become gusty, gusting to 20-25 knots for most of the day before easing tonight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...KDW  481 FXUS64 KMEG 181134 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Hot and humid conditions are expected through Tuesday, with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in many locations. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Tuesday afternoon, with a low confidence severe weather threat. The main concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily from midweek through the remainder of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A relatively mild and calm overnight hour is progressing across the Mid-South with temperatures spanning the mid to upper 70s. After some isolated showers and thunderstorms generally west of the MS River earlier this evening, all of the activity has diminished. Into tomorrow, an upper-level trough will begin to deepen through the Rockies, shifting our area into a primarily southwesterly flow regime. This will allow for additional moisture to return to the area, with a scattered chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms mainly north of I-40 by the afternoon. In addition, temperatures will remain well above-normal in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. A notable pattern shift will come on Tuesday as the Mid-South will transition into a wet pattern for the foreseeable future. This pattern will set the stage for a series of shortwaves to traverse the region through the remainder of the week as well as a cold front that will pass through late Tuesday into Wednesday. This frontal boundary is expected to stall just south of the area, keeping us in this pattern through at least the end of the work week. Jumping back to Tuesday, portions of the Mid-South are currently outlook in the Slight Risk (2/5) category from the Storm Prediction Center, primarily for damaging wind gusts and large hail. The better set-up synoptically will likely remain to the west and north of our area, but depending on how things evolve through the day on Tuesday, we are not necessarily out of the woods. As additional guidance comes into range, most are painting the picture of MLCAPE values over 2,000 j/kg with steep surface level lapse rates. The LLJ associated with the system does appear to split to our north, aiding to keep shear values on the lower end of things. With all of this in mind, the main question will be if the line that develops to our northwest will be able to maintain its strength as it approaches the area, or if it will become outflow dominant. The majority of CAMs do have the line losing strength as it approaches the area, with it continuing to weaken as it moves southeast / east. This would not be surprising as our instability begins to plummet in the evening. Greater clarity on the evolution of Tuesday will be coming as we get additional CAM guidance in range, but for now, there is generally low confidence in this potential event across the Mid-South and most of the stronger storms would be confined to locations generally along and west of the MS River. By Wednesday, with the stalled frontal boundary to our south, expect for this wet weather pattern to continue with scattered to likely PoPs each day. High temperatures will back off a few degrees through midweek, but will likely begin to climb again into next weekend. There is not a strong signal for any additional severe weather currently, but this will be something to watch over the next few days with the overall pattern. In terms of rainfall amounts over the next several days, the majority of guidance does have the Mid-South in the 90th percentile for our PWAT values throughout this entire period. If the environment were able to capitalize on this over multiple days, this could certainly bring heavy rainfall for some locations and a flooding concern depending where the boundary ultimately sets up. Right now, 2 to 3" of rainfall between Tuesday and Saturday seems like the most likely solution, but LREF guidance does have a 30-40% chance of some locations reaching over 3". This will be something to keep an eye on over the next few days as we get additional CAM guidance. For those wondering when we will break out of this weather pattern, it likely will not be until the weekend at the earliest. However, this pattern could very well last into early next week with no clear end in sight with the guidance currently. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Expect a near repeat of Sunday's aviation weather at Midsouth TAF sites, as deep south/southwesterly flow continues. Isolated TSRA cannot be ruled out at JBR around 21Z, but better focus for storms will be to the north, over SE MO and W KY. Marginal LLWS appears on tap for JBR this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future, with minRH values remaining above 40%. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the Mid-South beginning on Tuesday through the remainder of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...PWB  557 FXUS63 KDLH 181136 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 636 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of strong to severe storms Monday with timing most likely being overnight once again. Threats are hail, winds, and tornadoes. Heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding will also be possible. - Colder air returns Tuesday and Wednesday, a Freeze Warning may be needed for Tuesday night. - Next chance for precipitation will be this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Early this morning, the initial wave of storms moving through the Northland has weakened and these storms are no longer expected to be severe. However, general showers and standard thunderstorms will continue rolling through the region into the mid to late morning hours. As we head into this afternoon and evening, another round of showers and storms is possible, primarily focusing on the northwest Wisconsin area. Cloud cover and cooler temperatures are expected to keep a firm inversion in place for most of the area. This inversion will heavily limit the potential for tornadoes north of where the environment destabilizes, mainly across central Wisconsin. The potential for large hail and damaging winds remains a threat with the strongest storms. Additionally, flooding still remains a concern due to the potential for training storms along the cold front. Fortunately, the front seems to move fast enough that any flooding issues will remain isolated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Strong easterly flow envelops the region today with cloud cover increasing. Radar shows areas of weak echoes across western MN and NW WI. Reports thus far have not yielded much in way of rainfall yet and will likely still take some time for this rain to make it to the surface. Especially with how dry the morning sounding was for INL. We are seeing some noticeable areas of isentropic ascent ahead of the approaching warm front though. These surges are over both the Red River Valley and into NW WI which will likely be our best chances for this initial batch of rain before the main system ramps up later tonight. That being said rain chances through the afternoon are 20-30%. Tonight: The main show is expected to arrive later tonight. An inverted trough moving across the Northern Plains will transition into the primary low pressure system with a strong cold front trailing into the Central Plains. Severe storms are expected to develop in SW SD this afternoon. Through the evening hours the low pressure will advance NE towards NW WI. A strong low level jet will help to sustain the ongoing convection and drive the activity into the Northland. Storm mode as it moves into our region will be linear with damaging winds being the primary hazard. Large hail can't be ruled out as well but the more favorable lapse rates don't line up well with the current progression of the storms. Tornado threat also looks low as surface based convection tied to the cold front looks to stay south of the region. Overall timing for the worst conditions look to move in after 9PM and exit to the east after 4AM. Primary impact areas align with where SPC has their severe weather outlook. Clipping the Brainerd Lakes area with NW WI mostly likely seeing the lion's share of the activity. Rain totals with the main band of storms could range from 0.50-1.00" with PWATs over 1.25" some storms could produce totals over 1.50" Monday: Monday's set up will heavily depend on the progression of the previous nights frontal boundary. The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance is in decent agreement with stalling out the frontal boundary over NW WI. SPC severe outlook has the marginal risk draped across NW WI and sliding southwest into southern MN. This outline essentially highlights the most likely warm sector in which we have potential for the atmosphere to reload on instability for strong to severe storms once again. Areas west of this could still see some rain development as a mid level trough pivots across the Northern Plains, but thunderstorm potential is not as great. High res guidance is once again suggesting a late night threat with linear storm mode. With the cold front being much closer to the region some storms may become tied to the surface allowing for some surface vorticity ingestion. All modes of severe will be in play with QLCS tornadoes not out of the question. Activity may ramp up as early as 7PM with some discrete cells forming in the warm sector initially. The linear storm is currently projected to move in after 9PM and out of the region by 3AM with some lingering showers. Additionally, localized flooding may become a concern. Heavy rainfall rates may impact areas already inundated from the previous round of storms. Tuesday/Wednesday: High pressure will start to move in from the west on Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Remnant moisture from the departing system with cyclonic flow aloft could still lead to some scattered showers. Tuesday night will sport some very chilly temperatures with a Freezing Warning likely being needed for most of the Northland. Temperatures rebound a bit on Wednesday as surface high pressure saunters off to the east. Highs will climb back into the 50s and 60s. End of the Work Week: With the departure of high pressure Thursday will see southerly flow returning to the Northland. Highs continue to trend back up with widespread afternoon temps expected to reach the 60s. Cluster analysis shows an upper level trough moving out of the Rockies once again which will prompt increased chances for precipitation. At this time we are carrying 20-30% chance of rain to end the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Rain showers and storms will continue to move out of the area this morning. Low ceilings are expected to stick around for most of the day at LIFR and IFR. Any fog present this morning is expected to lift within the next couple hours. More rain showers and storms are expected tonight, with our western terminals INL and BRD least likely to see thunderstorms. However, a bolt of lightning or two is not completely out of the question. North to northeast winds won't be quite as gusty today, reaching 15-20 kts this evening with the arrival of storms. Showers and storms will come to an end Tuesday morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters this morning due to elevated northeast winds and waves. Northeast winds will ramp up again late tonight, bringing gusts up to 25 knots and building waves to 4 to 8 feet. Winds will eventually shift to the northwest by Tuesday afternoon, allowing waves to gradually subside. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns through the early part of the week. A high pressure returns for the mid week and low minimum RHs in the 30s return once again. Gusty winds will subside briefly during the day today, but will increase once again out of the north to northwest overnight. These winds will continue into Tuesday, with sustained winds to 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. &&.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>148-150. && $$ UPDATE...KML DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  523 FXUS63 KDMX 181136 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 636 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of severe storms this evening. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible as a line of storms moves west to east across the state. - Cooler and dry through the middle of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Showers and thunderstorms continue to push east across Iowa early this morning. While the line of storms was initially robust in western Iowa last evening, producing damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, early this morning the cold pool has surged out ahead of the storms and weakened the storms significantly. Drying on the backside of the decaying MCS has resulted for wake low type winds to develop, with recent gusts of 40-50+ mph occurring. We will be watching this closely through the morning as a similar set up yesterday resulted in even stronger gusts. So far those have yet to materialize and this line is more progressive than yesterday's storms in southern Iowa. No hydro problems have been identified with the storms overnight tonight with the progressive nature of the line helping to reduce residence time over any single location. These storms are tied to a surface low currently centered over north central Iowa and south central Minnesota that will continue to move east this morning and through today. Meanwhile the primary surface low is centered across the panhandle of Oklahoma and southwest Kansas early this morning. This will eject northeast today as the upper level trough finally kicks east. This will serve as the impetus for convective initiation once again this afternoon, and will be the final round in this four day stretch of severe weather across Iowa. Evolution and expectations for severe storms will be outlined below, however it is important to note first that the ongoing/diminishing MCS across Iowa this morning will impact the evolution of storms later today. Storm strength this afternoon into Iowa will depend on how quickly the atmosphere can recover and how far north theta e advection can surge back north into the state after the cold pool shoves that boundary south. CAMs indicate that the atmosphere should recover by late this afternoon with soundings largely uncapped across most of central and southern Iowa. This uncapped environment has 3000-3500+ J/kg of SBCAPE along with well curved hodographs through the low to mid levels. SRH values of 300-400 m2/s2 in the 0-3 km layer, 250-300 m2/s2 in the 0-1 km layer, and 200+ m2/s2 in the 0-500 m layer will be more than sufficient to maintain rotating updrafts through the mid levels and helicity for potential tornadogenesis in the low levels. The streamwise factor is also around 0.03-0.04 for storms to ingest efficiently. While shear/rotational factors are certainly in place for tornado genesis, low level instability is somewhat lacking. SBCAPE is quite high, but much of that is through the mid levels with steep 8C/km lapse rates. Low level 0-3 km CAPE is much lower at under 50 J/kg. Less low level stretching could help to limit tornadogenesis, but certainly cannot be counted on in an otherwise volatile environment. Storms are expected to initiate in eastern Nebraska around 21z and move into southwest Iowa around 22- 00z. The line will continue to push east across the state. The low level jet will strengthen after 00z, helping to maintain storms into central Iowa through 06z. Storms are expected to diminish in strength as they move east around and after 06z tonight. There is deep moisture transport into the area ahead of the upper level trough with PWATs of 1.5-1.75" across the area which should support efficient rainfall across the area this evening. The good news here is that the line of storms remains progressive and should limit most hydro concerns. Even so, pockets of 2-3" may be possible in southern Iowa where storms are more initially discrete/clusters before growing upscale and lining out across central Iowa. Given multiple rounds of precipitation over the last several days, capacity has diminished some, though most areas should still be able to handle the expected QPF. Primary areas of concern would be any heavy rain pockets that set up over towns. Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated to be a concern. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A much needed break from the active weather stretch begins on Tuesday as a high pressure nudges into the region later Tuesday into Wednesday. Mid-level winds behind the departing system Monday night also turn out of the north to northwest ushering in cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s to 60s on Tuesday through Thursday and lows Wednesday and Thursday mornings in the upper 30s to 40s. Winds on Tuesday will remain elevated through much of the daytime with a tight pressure gradient still in place with sustained winds out of the northwest 15-25 mph, and gusts to near 30 mph in the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms then return to the forecast from later Thursday into Friday as an upper trough crosses the Central Plains with a developing surface low reaching towards the area into Friday. Additional details to come in the next several days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A few showers will affect OTM in the next couple hours, after which the bulk of the day will be dry. SSE winds will increase, mainly at ALO/DSM/OTM, while low clouds affect northwestern IA including FOD/MCW at times, where ceilings will be MVFR to possibly IFR at times. This evening into tonight, TSRA will move through the area followed by SHRA. Have included TEMPO groups for TSRA at all sites during the most likely time window, but expect that to be refined throughout the day. Low ceilings will also gradually spread across the rest of the area during that time, then later tonight in lingering SHRA a cold front will surge through the area, bringing gusty NW winds and IFR ceilings at the end of the 12Z TAF period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...Lee  625 FXUS63 KDDC 181139 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 639 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very windy conditions will return to southwest Kansas on Monday, with wind gusts up to 50 mph potentially causing reduced visibility due to blowing dust. - Critical to Extreme Fire Weather is expected Monday afternoon across extreme southwest Kansas (west of Highway 283 and south of a Syracuse to Garden City line). In this area wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and relative humidity near 5% will be possible. - Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon east of Highway 283. The primary threats are very large hail and damaging winds, with a few tornadoes also possible. - Models show an improving chance for precipitation across all of southwest Kansas by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Models this evening are in good agreement in the evolution of the upper level trough over the Four Corners region over the next 24 hours. They also all are in good agreement with a shortwave trough/500mb jet max ejecting northeastward from the base of the trough towards western Kansas during the day on Monday. This will result in a deepening surface low over eastern Colorado, significantly tightening the surface pressure gradient across southwest Kansas as it lifts a surface boundary back north across southwest Kansas during the day. This setup combined with 850 mb winds increasing to 30 knots after 18z suggests that the NBM may end up being a little low on afternoon wind gusts given the past few days but if you lean towards the more realistic 75th percent (based on BUFR soundings wind gusts via momentum transfer). This would result in a few gusts approaching 50 mph which is well below high wind warning but strong enough to produce areas of blowing dust in locations that did receive rainfall from the storms Sunday night. The models today places this northward moving surface boundary near Garden City and Larned by mid afternoon with a dryline extending south of this boundary into western Oklahoma. East of the dryline the southerly low level flow will maintain dewpoints above 60 degrees. Also improve mid level instability and synoptic lift are expected during the afternoon as an upper level trough approaches from the west. This will result in another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and evening across Central and South Central Kansas. Any storms that develop have a high probability of becoming severe, with the primary hazards being very large hail and damaging wind gusts. A risk for tornadoes also exists, with the most favorable area located across South Central Kansas where model guidance shows the dryline/cold front intersection coinciding with a developing low level jet early Monday evening. In addition to the severe weather threat...a critical to extreme fire weather risk is expected on Monday afternoon with the highest fire risk being confined to areas west of the dryline, where gusty southwesterly winds will align with a much drier airmass. Deep vertical mixing will not only transport high momentum winds down to the surface but will also draw down dry air aloft, causing afternoon relative humidity values to bottom out in the single digits. The combination of frequent gusts above 40 mph and extreme low level dryness will create a highly volatile environment favorable for extreme fire behavior and rapid rates of spread. Current Red Flag Warning has this area outlined very well. This first upper level trough will lift northeast toward the Upper Mississippi Valley Monday night, allowing the cold front to push south into Oklahoma. By Tuesday morning, this boundary is forecast to stall from southeast Colorado into western Oklahoma and remain nearly stationary through the middle of the week as a secondary upper level disturbance approaches from the west. Although specific details remain unclear, ensemble guidance suggests the mid week period may present multiple opportunities for accumulating rainfall across southwest Kansas. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Aviation weather will be a difficult forecast this TAF period as a polar front straddles southwest Kansas -- particularly the GCK and DDC terminals. So, wind direction and speed forecast from mid-morning through late afternoon is of low confidence with amendments to the TAF likely based on observations and HRRR model trends. Associated with this element uncertainty will also be the ceiling element, as northerly winds will bring in a higher probability of lower ceiling in the MVFR or IFR category. The main cold front will drive south this evening, so the TAF becomes more confidence once the cold front finally drives south of southwest Kansas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A critical to extreme fire weather risk is expected across southwest Kansas Monday afternoon. Ensembles earlier this evening agree that the dryline will be located near or just east of Highway 283 which will result in keeping the unseasonably dry air mass over extreme southwest Kansas (Cimarron Grassland). By late morning the stronger boundary layer winds will mix down to the surface, bringing gusts over 30 mph before noon and exceeding 40 mph by 2 PM. This deep mixing will also pull exceptionally dry air to the ground, dropping relative humidity into the single digits. These conditions will create a volatile environment west of Highway 283 and south of Garden City, where Red Flag Warning conditions are most likely. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ074>078-084>088. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Umscheid FIRE WEATHER...Burgert  588 FXUS64 KAMA 181137 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 637 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - High-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions persist on Monday. - Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Tuesday night and extending through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Currently, a dryline boundary over the eastern combined Panhandles has begun its retreat west. Although we have observed isolated attempts at convective initiation, updrafts have not been able to sustain as convection moves off the boundary. Tonight, RH recovery is dependent on both a weak cold front in the north and the retreating dryline in the east. Current guidance points toward a weak cold front pushing into the Oklahoma Panhandle tonight, which would bring with it increased RH values and a W to even NW wind shift in the western OK Panhandle and NW TX Panhandle. This weak cold front, and the dryline retreating west overnight could put the majority of of the Panhandles in decent (greater than 50%) Rh recovery. However, it will likely leave the western TX and north-central TX Panhandle counties in quite poor RH recovery overnight (20-30%). An upper-level trough will swing from the southwestern US, through the 4-corners, and into the plains through the course of tonight and tomorrow. This will re-establish a lee-side surface low pressure system in eastern CO. The cold front that pushes into the northern CWA tonight will retreat as southerly/southwesterly winds strengthen to the south of the front and the low strengthens. As the low strengthens, and 850 mb support arrives in the form of a LLJ around 35-40 kts, surface winds are expected to respond with intensification in the Panhandles. Sustained winds could reach 30-35 mph across the Panhandles, with gusts up to 50 mph. Minimum RH's as low as 4%, with widespread minimums of 5-10% across the combined Panhandles will lead to critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions across the Panhandles. Thee dryline on Monday will push east throughout the day, and CAMs are in agreement that there will likely not be enough forcing present along it to initiate convection. However, a cold strong cold front is expected to push through the area on Monday night. The cold front will enter the OK Panhandle around 7-8 PM, reaching Amarillo around 10-11 PM. This cold front will bring increased relative humidity, but with the strength of the cold front and the tightening of the associated surface pressure gradient as it pushed through, it will likely bring some continued breezy post frontal winds from the north. So, although RH's will improve, winds will stay breezy (20-25 mph sustained) behind the front on Monday night. The cold front will knock down temperatures on Tuesday across the Panhandles. Low temperatures Tuesday morning could reach the low 30's in the NW CWA, while high temperatures will dip below average for most of the CWA. Ferguson && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Southwesterly flow aloft will persist for the majority of the forecast period. With a deeper trough axis in the SW, with the base extending south of CA, the surface level response to shortwave perturbations will likely be low-pressure centers in NM rather than CO. This would place us in the true warm sector of a weather pattern. This signal seems to persist from Wednesday through at least Saturday at this time. Greater confidence in severity and timing of showers or thunderstorms will be gained in the short term, as the atmosphere will likely still be recovering from the last weather system, persistent cloud cover could reduce severe chances, and the signal/synoptic support for this system is less forthright than the last. However, the signal is there, and if the atmosphere is able to build instability and avoid workover from multiple days of weather, showers and thunderstorms (possibly severe) are on the table. Ferguson && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Brief MVFR conditions to start the 12Z TAF period at KAMA due to low cigs, but should quickly return to VFR by 14-15Z. VFR conditions then expected at all TAF sites throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the southwest at 10-20 kts to start, increasing to 20-30 kts with gusts around 40 kts starting around 16-17Z through about 00Z Tuesday before diminishing to 10-20 kts around 06Z and continue through the end of the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 As of late tonight, present radar and ground observations where already seeing the dryline retreat west with some observation sites reporting relative humidity values above 50 percent. Present CAMs have the line stopping roughly around eastern most edge of the Panhandles’ western most counties. Much like last night, the final resting place of the dry line will be important as areas west of it will see very poor overnight relative humidity recovery that could only reach as high as 20%. However unlike last night, the northern Panhandles look to have add complexity in the form of a weak cold front. Based on the latest CAMs, and it current position, this front looks to move into the Oklahoma Panhandles roughly around midnight to 2 AM and stall somewhere in the northern most row of Texas counties. Areas behind this front will see winds shift to a more northerly direction for the overnight, but with speeds on the lighter side (10 to 15 mph). Instead this front will actually be a benefit as it will have the potential to collapse the dry line for a period of time giving the north an opportunity at great overnight recovery of relative humidity values in the 60 to 75 percent range. The only thing that will need to be watched is that winds could stay breezy in the south central and eastern portions of the Texas Panhandles for the overnight period. Moving into Monday will a very similar set-up to what was seen yesterday with dryline looking to once again surge into our east. This will see many counties bottom out once again with relative humidity in the single digits that afternoon and evening. However, the still present upper-level jet support as well as the approaching cold front that night, will see an added boost to our winds for the day. At this time present guidance is showing strong indication that southwesterly to southerly winds could reach speeds up to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph not out of the question. Meanwhile to our east, we will need to monitor the where dryline officially stops for that afternoon as it is once again a prime forcing mechanism for any thunderstorm potential for the day, which could lead to more lightning started wildfires and erratic and gusty outflow winds. As for the expected cold front, present timing from the CAMs has it arriving in the Oklahoma Panhandle as early as 7 PM Monday evening with a more likely time of around 8 to 9 PM. The arrival of this front will aid in seeing relative rapidly rise across the Panhandles, but at the cost of seeing winds shift a northerly direction with speeds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts upwards of 30 mph during the overnight period. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ001>020-317. Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT thisevening for TXZ001>020-317. OK...Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ001>003. Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...29  603 FXUS64 KEPZ 181138 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 538 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 - Critical fire weather conditions today due to strong winds and very low humidity. Red Flag Warnings in effect for most of New Mexico and West Texas. - Lighter winds, but still breezy conditions during the afternoons, Tuesday through the rest of the week. While some low level moisture will try to work in from the east during the overnights, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will mainly be focused east of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1027 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 ...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... The well advertised longwave trough will move west to east across the Central Rockies on Monday. Deep southwest flow aloft will continue to overlay New Mexico. The deepening upper level system and increasing PVA will induce lee-side surface low development over southeast Colorado of ~990mb. This combined with tightening surface pressure gradient will promote breezy to windy conditions across the Borderland Region on Monday. Sustained west/southwest winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph will be common across the area, with higher gusts up to 50-55 mph possible over the Sacramento Mtn/Black Range and the adjacent eastern foothills. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 5 AM to 6 PM for the Sacramento Mtns. Isolated areas of blowing dust will be possible across the Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas desert lowlands, especially in and around dust prone locations. Temperatures on Monday will top out around 90 degrees across the desert lowlands. On Tuesday, a backdoor frontal boundary will drop down the High Plains in the wake of the aforementioned trough. The front will bump up against the Central New Mexico Mountain Chain, infringing on the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mtns. This backdoor front will not push any further west during the day on Tuesday as the dry westerlies kick into gear across most of the forecast area. High temperatures on Tuesday will hover around 90 degrees across the desert lowlands. By Tuesday night and into Wednesday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will wash out and merge with the High Plains dryline. On Tuesday night, convection over the Trans Pecos will push the boundary westward towards the forecast area. The question remains, how strong and how far west will the associated outflow boundary push west Wednesday morning? That said, mentionable PoPs are in the grids for the eastern portions of Otero and Hudspeth Counties Wednesday afternoon. The dryline/associated outflow boundaries will try to make another push westward on Thursday morning with guidance showing shallow moisture over far eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Those areas just mentioned will be the focus for shower and storm activity Thursday afternoon. ...REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... Dry westerly flow looks to win out for the remainder of the week with upper level ridging building in across the Desert Southwest. Temperatures during the second half of the forecast period will hover right around the seasonal average for Memorial Day Weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Another breezy to windy day is forecast. Winds are already gusty at KELP and will will increase this afternoon for all sites to around 20 knots with gusts of 30-35 knots. This will put KELP close to AWW this afternoon but latest guidance has speeds just short of criteria. Direction will be from the W to SW (220-270), which may bring BLDU into TAF sites, but given lack of VIS reductions on Sunday, I am not confident enough to include mention in this TAF cycle. Winds will finally decrease around 6z. Skies will be SKC-FEW250 for the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Another warm, dry, and breezy to windy day is expected today as an UL trough moves through the Western CONUS. Twenty-foot speeds will top out around 15 to 25 MPH with the strongest winds across higher elevations and east slope areas. Wind gusts will range 40 to 50 MPH with up to 55 MPH in the Sacramento Mountains. Min RH values will be slightly higher than yesterday but still are expected to drop to around 10%. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all but Hudspeth County. Tomorrow will continue to be very dry but winds will be much lighter, topping out between 10 and 20 MPH. The dry weather will continue for the rest of the forecast but with no critical wind speeds expected. The exception will be for far eastern areas as a dry line moves back and forth across the Sacramento Mountains and eastern Hudspeth County. Venting will be excellent with smoke transport to the northeast for today and tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 64 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 57 89 57 88 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 54 88 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 67 44 66 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 55 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 48 80 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 53 91 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 51 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 91 55 88 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Hancock 61 97 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 61 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 54 88 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 53 90 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 59 92 60 91 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 56 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 50 80 48 77 / 0 0 0 30 Mescalero 48 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 46 75 46 74 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 42 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 53 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 47 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 47 85 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 46 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 50 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 51 87 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 88 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 51 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County. NM...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown  609 FXUS64 KSJT 181138 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 638 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures expected through Monday. - Severe Storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Another breezy day with gusty south winds, particularly in the Big Country, with a surface low in the Panhandle and lee trough in West Texas. While the CAMs are mainly dry with a cap aloft, the NAM nest does develop a few isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon, but they are brief, only a couple hours. Still, if a storm does develop, it could become severe. Otherwise low clouds developing over the region will break up midday. Highs could reach 100 along a dryline from Sterling City to Sweetwater and Roby, but most areas will see upper 80s to lower 90s. There is the potential for thunderstorm late tonight in the Big Country as a cold front moves in toward daybreak into Haskell and Throckmorton counties. Very mild overnight with lows in the lower 70s, as low level moisture with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s continues to move up from the Gulf. This will also bring hazy conditions particularly in the mornings. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A trough remains in place across the Four Corners region on Tuesday and we will continue to see embedded disturbances within the flow aloft. Meanwhile, a pronounced dryline will be sitting just to our west again. This will combine with a cold frontal boundary moving into our area sometime on Tuesday morning into early afternoon. The combination of these three features will allow for more substantial support for thunderstorm development across the region. Rain chances will therefore be high (70-80%) on Tuesday. It still remains a bit uncertain how far south the frontal boundary will move into western Central Texas. This boundary appears to stall across the Concho Valley, which would help to prolong the rain chances. Conditions are favorable for this activity to be strong to severe as it moves through on Tuesday. In fact, we are indeed outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center. The main hazards with this activity will be large hail and damaging winds. By the time Wednesday rolls around, another low pressure strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and starts moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding for Wednesday. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this system moves east for the later half of the work week. This leaves a high rain chance (80%) in place for Thursday. Some remnants may linger into Friday, however, lower chances (30- 40%) will be in place for Friday. All of this activity from Tuesday onward will have to be monitored closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDTMon May 18 2026 Stratus with MVFR ceilings with visibilities 5 miles in haze, will will rise to VFR around noon. A 50KT low level jet was partially mixing the ground at 11Z, with gusts over 30 KTS at times at KABI and KSJT. KABI will continue to gust to 30 KTS with south winds. KSJT and the rest of the terminals will gust 20-25 KTS today and tonight, with wind decreasing late. Stratus with MVFR ceilings returns after midnight tonight along with persistent MVFR haze around 5SM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 93 73 87 64 / 20 20 80 70 San Angelo 94 72 93 63 / 10 20 70 70 Junction 90 73 91 65 / 10 0 60 80 Brownwood 89 72 88 64 / 10 10 70 70 Sweetwater 99 72 88 62 / 20 20 80 60 Ozona 93 72 90 64 / 10 0 60 60 Brady 88 72 89 65 / 10 10 70 80 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...04  693 FXUS63 KMQT 181141 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 741 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms exit the U.P. this morning with isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon. - Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight. Some of the storms could be severe, especially over the southern half of the U.P. Heavy rainfall is also possible. - Warmer than normal temperatures Monday, followed by cooler than normal temperatures for the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Early this morning satellite water vapor imagery and RAP upper level analysis showed deep troughing over the western U.S. with southwesterly flow over the plains into the Upper Great Lakes. Satellite and radar showed widespread convection from KS up to northern WI ahead of frontal boundary. The storms were clustered over NW WI and the western U.P., close to a sfc low pressure that was tracking northeast into the area. Convection remained elevated, above the cooler easterly flow near the sfc and strong stable layer. SPC Mesoanalysis showed mucape of 500-1000 J/kg with effective shear of 20-30kt over the western U.P. which was helping to maintain thunderstorms pushing into the area but overall there was a weakening trend as cells crossed into the U.P. Temperatures were warming up a bit overnight as southeasterly flow strengthened with most locations in the upper 40s to low 50s. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the western U.P. through this morning. Conditions will remain borderline for strong to severe thunderstorms, mucape ~1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear 20-30kt. The most likely hazard is hail but cant rule out isolated strong winds. These storms will move through parts of the north-central U.P. with more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the rest of the U.P. PWATs are in the 1.25-1.5" range, exceeding the 95th percentile from climo, thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. While scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorms will be possible the afternoon, mainly for the central and eastern U.P., most of the day is expected to be fairly quite with respects to thunderstorm activity due to strong capping and little in the way of large scale ascent. Should a storm manage to form and root itself at the surface it could become severe with cape to around 1500 J/kg and shear of ~40kt but the probability is very low. Southerly flow will increase and despite cloud cover expect temperatures to warm into the 60s and 70s. A lake breeze (Lake Superior) will form by early afternoon bringing falling to the lakeshore areas. The lake breeze / cold pool will expand inland through the remainder of the afternoon, further limiting the prospects for thunderstorm development. Tonight, a second low pressure will track north into the U.P. bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Models continue to trend downwards with respects to instability with href mean mucape of 500-1000 J/kg over much of the U.P. though areas in the south will see a bit more robust instability to around 1500 J/kg. Notable is also the downward trend in mid-level lapse rates in the models over the last several runs. 0-6km bulk shear is around 40kt so there is still the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, especially over the southern U.P. SPC continues to include the CWA within their 15% risk region (slight risk), with primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds. WPC also continues to maintain a marginal risk for flash flooding with this second wave. Showers and gusty winds will linger Tuesday as the surface low and trough aloft push through the region. Thunderstorm potential looks to be isolated to the east in the morning. Sprawling high pressure builds in by evening, keeping the region dry through at least Friday morning. Daytime highs Wednesday look to peak in the 50s south and west, and 40s north-central and east. Thursday and Friday will trend back toward normal 60s, but the east may only top out in the 50s both days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 741 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Multiple rounds of SHRA (including up to 35 percent chances of strong-to-severe TSRA) will impact the TAF sites today, with remnant low level moisture from overnight storms leading to LIFR conditions at all sites and airport minimums at CMX. These conditions will continue for the next few hours before a slight improvement at most sites this afternoon, though IWD is 50% likely to not improve above IFR today. The next round of SHRA/TSRA arrives around 00Z and lasts through the overnight period, with a return to IFR and/or LIFR conditions around 06Z, though confidence in the precise timing of specific storms is low. With multiple low pressure systems in the region this period, expect more wind shifts than the TAF forecast allows. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Guidance continues to bring a low pressure into the Great Lakes Monday night, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient today and cold air advection Tuesday behind the low. The former will support a period of northeasterly gales in the western portions of Lake Superior this afternoon and evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase tonight, then linger until the low passes Tuesday morning. The first wave comes tonight across the east and then the west late tonight, both potentially lingering into Monday morning. Strong to severe storms can't be ruled out, the lack of effective shear within the cloud layer suggests the risk is marginal. The next organized cluster lifts through Monday night preceded by a warm and moist airmass. This will again support strong to severe storm potential and rainfall may be the trigger needed for overnight fog. In the wake of the low Tuesday, a second period of gales looks possible across eastern Lake Superior; although, ensemble guidance suggests the probability in the east being 25% or less. Once the winds settle Tuesday night/Wednesday, light winds are favored through at least Friday morning. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ244- 264>266. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for LSZ245-246. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ221-248- 250. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTP/NL AVIATION...GS MARINE...JTP  726 FXUS65 KPUB 181143 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 543 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme fire danger is expected across our southern plains today, with southwest winds gusting 45 to 50 mph and humidity values in the single digits. - 50 mph winds are expected over the southern mountains and the San Luis Valley, which may lead to blowing dust over the valley, blowing snow over the mountains, and travel concerns resulting in both cases. - Showers will be possible north of Highway 50 and west of I-25, with thunderstorms mainly across the Pikes Peak region. - A Freeze Watch remains in place for El Paso and Kiowa counties tonight, and frost may be possible for other portions of the plains as well. - Cooler and wetter weather is expected for all areas tomorrow and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 For the plains..The elusive cold front has sagged back south since sunset, and is now sitting between Springfield and Campo across Baca County. This front and where it ends up again this afternoon will be the driving factor in today's forecast across the plains once again. North of the front and west of I-25, stratus has begun to develop up against the terrain as of midnight. USAFA is reporting ceilings down to 2,000ft, and the Colorado Springs airfield is starting to see lower scattered decks as well. Models continue to suggest that rain will be possible as upslope continues across the mountains/plains interface throughout this morning. Thunderstorms will be possible across the Pikes Peak region again this afternoon, though severe development is not expected. That said, lots of shear will present over the region today, so if any areas clear out and warm up, chances for a stronger storm or two may be possible, especially over the higher terrain of the Pikes Peak region. The main forecast concern on our plains today though will be our high end Red Flag Warning across our southern plains. Las Animas and Baca counties are both included in this warning, and southern portions of Bent and Prowers counties may see periods of critical conditions as well depending on how far north/east the front gets shoved this afternoon. Over these areas, single digit relative humidity values and southwest wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are expected. The strongest winds and lowest humidities will be over Baca County this afternoon, which will lead to the possibility for extreme fire behavior for any new or existing fires today. Please use extra caution and take care not to start a wildfire today. One last note for the plains, gusty winds over our southeast plains may also lead to blowing dust and hazardous travel conditions. Once the sun sets, the front *finally* pushes itself completely southwards, allowing all areas to cool and moisten through the overnight hours. This will put an end to fire weather concerns for a few days. Overnight lows will be chilly in our post frontal airmass though, and areas north of Highway 50 may see hard freeze conditions by Tuesday morning. El Paso and Kiowa counties are both under Freeze Watches for tonight through early Tuesday morning, and temperatures down into the upper 20s will be possible. Another tier of counties or two may also see the potential for frost depending on clearing through the overnight hours. For the high country and the San Luis Valley..Models bring the trough axis through our southern mountains between 9 AM and Noon or so, which will be the windiest timeframe for the San Juans, the San Luis Valley, and the Sangres. The NBM continues to be the only outlier suggesting high wind criteria, so have continued to trend towards other model consensus, which keeps winds below warning levels across the area. The San Luis Valley is likely to see gusts upwards of 50 mph or so though, especially if any showers survive off the mountains and help to enhance gusts coming down the terrain. Areas of blowing dust are likely across the Valley today, especially with any localized stronger winds from decaying showers. Over the mountains, a quick 2 to 4 inches of wind driven snow will be possible for the San Juans and the central mountains. Though totals will be low, degraded visibility and hazardous travel conditions may be possible from blowing snow, especially over mountain passes. Snow comes to an end for both range by around midnight or so at the latest. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday.. The front is finally through us and will stay through us for Tuesday and Wednesday. We stay in southwest flow aloft as messy troughing sits out west. This pattern will keep temperatures cooler than normal, and it will keep precip chances over us as well. Models bring shortwave energy through the trough and over us on Tuesday, which will help to develop weak showers and thunderstorms over the high country on Tuesday afternoon, and better chances for widespread rain on the plains overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday. Daytime highs look to stay in the 60s both days, with decent chances for precipitation both days. Thursday Onwards.. Models are not in great agreement about the pattern late week onwards, but the general consensus suggests some type of northwest flow with a trough passing to our north. This looks to bring temperatures back into the near normal range for Thursday and Friday, with warmer than normal temperatures by the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast nearly every afternoon, especially across the high country. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 543 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 KALS: Gusty southwest winds will be in place throughout the day, gusting 25-30 knots this morning and closer to 45 knots by 16Z or so. With the strongest gusts, there will be a period late this morning through mid afternoon with the potential for periods of blowing dust and reduced visibility. After 22Z, there is also a low- end chance that rain showers will move off the terrain and pass bu the terminal, but chances are low enough to leave as PROB30 for now. KCOS: Winds will turn SE later this morning, gusting to 25 knots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in from the north- northwest after 20Z or so, bringing precipitation and gusty outflow to the terminal. Outflow from storms will reach 35 knots or so. Precip departs the immediate area prior to 00Z, though gusty winds and MVFR-IFR cigs will remain the rest of the period. Winds will turn northerly later this afternoon as a frontal surge moves in. KPUB: MVFR to IFR conditions expected through the period. Winds turn ESE later this morning, with a lower-end chance for thunderstorms to pass by the terminal during the afternoon. Winds will generally gust to 25 knots or so, with any outflow from thunderstorms gusting to about 35 knots. Winds will turn north later in the day as a frontal surge moves in. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for COZ084-085-095-096. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ230-233-237. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO  758 FXUS63 KFSD 181144 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 644 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy drizzle through mid morning will lead to some reduced visibility. Use caution and keep headlights on through the morning commute. - Showers and isolated thunderstorms return to the area by early this afternoon, continuing through this evening into tonight. - A few storms along and southeast of a Wayne to Sheldon to Windom line may be strong to severe late this afternoon into this evening. Confidence in this risk is low. - Cool conditions prevail this week. Dry weather expected mid week. Another round of storms is possible Thursday through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Temperatures this morning range from the mid 40s to the mid 60s from west to east. Lows tonight fall to the upper 30s to mid 50s, although areas west of the James River may stay a bit warmer than the upper 30s if stratus lingers longer into the overnight hours, as some models hint at. Still seeing breezy winds with gusts to 30 mph at times. Focus shifts to the next wave progged to move out of the Rockies late this afternoon through tonight, as well as the preceding WAA and weak vorticity lobe. Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop this morning across NE and lift northward into our area by the afternoon hours. Showers and isolated storms continue through the evening/overnight hours, tapering down from west to east as the 700mb trough moves across the area. A few isolated strong to severe storms are possible along and southeast of a line from Wayne to Sheldon to Windom, mainly from 4 to 9 PM. Confidence is low in the chances for severe weather, as there are a few questions. One, how much do skies clear during the day, especially with latest guidance showing stratus remaining in place through the early afternoon? Two, depending on cloud cover, how much can the atmosphere recover from yesterday's storms? Finally, where do any boundaries end up today, and how quickly does the elevated front move east? If we are able to get a stronger storm or two to develop, hail to ping pong ball size (1.5") and wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threats. If we have a surface boundary or get a surface based storm (more likely if we're able to clear out today), a tornado cannot be ruled out, although risk is low. Heavy rain in thunderstorms may cause some localized flooding issues if storms track over the same areas which received heavy rain over the weekend. Stay aware for possible warnings later today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The short-term convective outlook presents a highly volatile spring severe weather setup. Latest surface analysis shows a complex pattern, anchored by a strong 994 mb low over northwest KS. An inverted trough extended north of the low through central SD, while a well-defined warm front stretched northeast of the low into east central NE. A weaker low was also noted in north central NE. Visible satellite imagery revealed stable wave clouds advancing northeast over far northeast NE and extreme SE SD, ahead of the advancing warm front. Regional radar imagery showed a complex of strong to severe storms over north central NE. This storm complex is forecast by short range guidance to continue tracking east this afternoon, intensifying as interacts with the richer low- level moisture pool near and south of the warm front. Moderate to strong instability will be in place over the southern to eastern CWA by late afternoon with MLCAPE nearing 3000 J/kg. In addition, deep layer shear will increase to around 50 kt, coincident with a mid level speed max ejecting from the deep upper trough to our west. As the system evolves over the next several hours, it appears the ingredients for a significant severe weather event will be most favored over the southern to eastern CWA. Ahead of the main convective line, some CAMs show supercell development along the northward advancing warm front. These storms would present a risk of very large hail (2"+) and tornadoes. Given the amount of low level SRH/curved hodographs present, a couple strong tornadoes are possible. The convective cluster currently entering our far southwest CWA should strengthen as it shifts east, with an initial hail and tornado threat transitioning to a damaging straight line wind threat (70+ MPH) as it grows upscale into a squall line/QLCS. Some line-embedded QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially for any line segments that become oriented north/south or northwest/southeast, given southwesterly 0-3 km shear vectors. Timing from latest high-res guidance suggests this activity exits to the east of our CWA late this evening. Precipitation amounts will vary significantly based on convective tracks, though NBM guidance and HREF probability match mean fields project a widespread 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rainfall, particularly across northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. On Monday, the cold front finally pushes into the area. Instability and shear are forecast to be much lower than today, however, there will be a conditional risk of severe storms over the eastern CWA during the late afternoon to evening, if the airmass can destabilize sufficiently ahead of the front. SPC's Day 2 outlook indicates as Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5), for our MN and IA counties. Behind the departing upper wave, quasi-zonal flow sets up for Tuesday and Wednesday, yielding quiet conditions and seasonally cool high temperatures moderating from the upper 50s Tuesday to mid-upper 60s Wednesday. The next upper wave moves in for the Thursday to Friday period, however Gulf moisture remains cutoff ahead of this system. Evaluating the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) reveals no significant climatological anomalies for precipitation or wind across the upper Midwest during this period, reinforcing the the idea of a low-impact system for our area. The current forecast sticks closely to the NBM consensus, maintaining broad 20-30 percent probabilities for light rain for late Thursday into Saturday. By late this week and especially this weekend, temperatures will embark on a steady upward trajectory, as the mid level flow backs west, then southwest. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 day outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, which supports blended guidance high temperatures reaching well into the 80s on Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR to IFR ceilings persist this morning, and are expected to do so through the period. Lowest ceilings overall are near and east of I-29. Have seen patchy to widespread drizzle this morning with the low ceilings, and guidance is handling this poorly this morning. Have seen visibility also down to MVFR and IFR; drizzle lingers through the mid morning. Showers and isolated storms return to the area by early this afternoon, continuing through this evening. Tried to narrow convective timing as much as possible with latest trends, but expect further refinement. With slightly higher confidence in TSRA potential for northwestern IA, included mention. However, still low enough confidence in timing/occurrence at the terminal to exclude from prevailing group for now. Winds through the period remain close to northwesterly, with gusts 20 to 30 knots. A few thunderstorms along/southeast of KLCG-KSHL-KMWM may be strong to severe with large hail and strong winds, but confidence is low. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...ILX/25 AVIATION...SG  961 FXUS63 KABR 181146 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 646 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain showers mid day today through this evening. Rainfall ranges from a tenth to a quarter inch. - Colder air for the first half of the work week. Lows Tuesday morning close to freezing, but with clouds and a stiff northwest breeze temperatures should stay above 32. Much better setup for widespread frost/freeze conditions Wednesday morning with clear skies and light winds. && .UPDATE... Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 UPDATE for 12Z Aviation discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Next wave coming up from the southwest brings in moisture mid-day today through the early overnight. Still mainly light rain/showers. QPF is just a tenth or two. For Tuesday morning, we are faced with the prospect of cold advection enhanced winds, shallow cloud cover and NBM guidance proposing temperatures down to the freezing mark. Clearly not a setup for frost, but with 925mb temperatures around +1 to +2C between deterministic models, which is in alignment with the HREF mean that should put temperatures into the low/mid 30s. That said, the NSSL WRF, NAM NEST and HRRR have 925 temps down to 0C for various parts of the CWA. Latest NBM is a little warmer for lows, and now has just about everyone at 33F and warmer. No headlines/frost mention for Tuesday morning but it will get quite close to the freezing mark. Frost caddishness negated by these winds and clouds however. Much more impactful drop in temperatures will be noted for Wednesday morning. During the day Tuesday, daytime driven cumulus evident in NAM BUFKIT profiles. While this is shallow (~5kft), cant rule out light rain showers/sprinkles. Regardless, cloud cover during the day will limit heating. Loss of daytime driven convection with temperatures only into the 50s and dewpoints in the low/mid 30s and surface high pressure overhead will leave us with a good setup for frost. 25th range across the CWA is 29-32 while the upper range is 32-35. Keeping frost mention at this time but still too early for any headlines. The upper pattern features the current upper trough departure, with a second trough over the intermountain west. That puts us under a ridge for Wednesday - early Thursday. There's a negative tilt trough passage for Friday. Aside from the precipitation associated with this wave/surface low, there is a wide range in temperatures with a 10 degree spread in the 25th/75th for highs so a low confidence forecast to close out the work week. After that its zonal flow across the northwestern CONUS into the northern plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG IFR to low end MVFR ceilings will continue through the next 24 hours. 2-5SM visibility in fog will remain near ATY through 14Z. Light rain will dominate the afternoon hours. Expect winds to remain out of the north to north-northwest with gusts of 20-30kts. Look for improving conditions from west to east overnight, with VFR ceilings returning to PIR by 08Z Tuesday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...10 DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06  951 FXUS63 KBIS 181146 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 646 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Medium to high chances (40 to 80 percent) for showers this afternoon through this evening south central and into the James River Valley, low chances elsewhere. - Cold overnight low temperatures near or slightly below freezing tonight (west and north central), and Tuesday night (southwest, central, and east). - Temperatures warming back to above normal by late in the work week and for the weekend, with near daily chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Webcams and observations showing some dense fog across north western and north central North Dakota this morning. This fog should diminish by mid to late morning, however have issued an SPS for its potential impacts on the morning commute. Otherwise low clouds remain across the area. Shower activity has diminished, although some pockets of drizzle are still possible. The next round of rain is starting to take shape in western South Dakota. Left PoPs as is as we continue to monitor the progression of this next round. Lastly SPC does have southeastern North Dakota in a general risk for thunderstorms today. The better instability is in South Dakota and further south today. Perhaps some lightning is possible this afternoon with heavier showers, however, the overall threat for thunderstorms today is very low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Upper level trough will push across the state later today bringing the next round of showers. Before doing so, lingering low level moisture will bring abundant cloud cover and cooler temperatures this morning through today. A few rain showers and pockets of drizzle will also be found this morning, along with some patchy fog, as a result of this lingering low level moisture. An increased gradient on the surface of the exiting surface low may also bring some breezy north winds today to southern and eastern portions. Temperatures today will be quite cool and generally in the 40s, with some lower 50s. Later today through this evening, the mentioned upper level wave will move through bringing more organized showers to the state. Best chances for these showers remain across south central and eastern portions of the state where the better synoptic lift is. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers are possible elsewhere. QPF will be much less from this second wave, with the higher amounts being a tenth to a quarter of an inch in the southeast. The mentioned wave moves eastward tonight, although a few showers may linger as it does so especially in the west. Perhaps a rain snow mix is possible from these lingering showers. Cooler temperatures will also be found tonight with lows in the 30s. Depending if clouds can clear, some frost is possible. Low level moisture looks to linger, although some far western portions could at least partially clear which may be the area to monitor tonight for frost. Although not in the forecast, perhaps some patchy fog is also possible tonight into Tuesday morning with light winds and lingering low level moisture. Surface high will push this low level moisture eastward on Tuesday. Some isolated showers are possible in the morning as it does so, then look for clearing skies and slightly warmer temperatures in the 50s. Breezy northwest winds could also linger in the east for Tuesday. This surface high combined with ridging aloft will bring clearing skies tonight and colder temperatures. Most areas are forecast in the 30s, with some areas in the central and east could see temperatures near to slightly below freezing. Widespread frost is still likely, with perhaps some freeze highlights also needed. There still remainssome uncertainty if we fully clear out and if a switch to a breezy southerly flow occurs overnight. Will continue to message the cold temperatures, yet hold off on any highlights at this time for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A breezy southerly flow is then forecast for Wednesday, with another broad trough pattern approaching the state. Warmer temperatures will return as a result with highs forecast in the 70s. Some lower RH values may also return, although recent rainfall should help with fuels. This trough pattern could also bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening for Wednesday. Broad trough pattern then looks to continue through the end of the upcoming week. This is forecast to bring seasonable temperatures and near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Instability looks limited during the work week, thus the chances for severe thunderstorms looks low at this time. Daily high temperatures in the 60s with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s are also expected, limiting the frost and freeze threat for the end of the week. Warmer temperatures are then possible for the upcoming weekend with highs in the 70s Saturday to perhaps near 80 on Sunday. Current NBM chances for precipitation this coming weekend are low, although zonal flow aloft and some weak instability could change this with each forecast update. These warming temperatures could also bring lower RH values in the afternoon this weekend. Winds generally look light, which should limit the fire weather threat. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Low clouds will continue through much of the day today, bringing MVFR to periods of IFR ceilings. Some areas of fog are also being report across northwestern and north central portions this morning bringing LIFR conditions. Fog could last through the mid to late morning hours, and generally from KXWA to KMOT. The next round of showers is expected to return this afternoon through this evening, and will be more confined to the south and east, although most sites will have at least slight chances for rain showers. Any shower has the potential to bring MVFR to IFR conditions. Tonight will see shower activity diminish, although low clouds could linger bringing MVFR to isolated IFR ceilings. Some low VFR ceilings may be found for western sites late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Patchy fog may also return tonight, although confidence is not high enough to include at this time. A breezy north wind may also be found throughout much of the forecast period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin  001 FXUS64 KBMX 181147 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 647 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 635 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 - Rain chances increase starting Tuesday night and become a daily feature through the weekend as a cold front stalls across the region. - Warm conditions continue to start out the work week with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. && .DISCUSSION... (Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 As of writing, a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the southeastern portion of the CWA. The majority of convection this afternoon remained across the border in Georgia where low level convergence was maximized within a corridor of slightly higher moisture. Monday looks to feature a low (20-30%) chance for showers and storms as a passing H85-H7 shortwave interacts with an expanding plume of healthy moisture. Best chances will be across our southern and eastern areas. Rain chances begin to increase late Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the first of a series of shortwaves pass through the region. The upper ridge that has been influencing the area over the last few days will lose its grasp by mid week as an upper trough begins to move across the Plains. An associated cold front will sink across the southeast Wednesday into Thursday, eventually stalling and lingering through the end of the week. As a result, we will see continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. By the weekend, the stalled front retreats back to the north, leaving ample moisture in place across the region. Therefore, rain chances remain in the forecast. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with surface ridging in place across the Southeast US Coast. Light and variable winds overnight will increase out of the south to southeast through the late morning hours today with a few gusts at times. There will be low, diurnally enhanced, afternoon rain chances for portions of Central Alabama, but it is too low to mention at any terminals at this time. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday afternoon will feature low chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across our southern and eastern areas. However, most locations will likely remain dry. Rain chances increase by mid week and continue into the weekend as a front stalls across the region. Fire weather concerns are not anticipated over the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 88 64 88 64 / 10 10 10 20 Anniston 87 65 88 65 / 10 10 10 10 Birmingham 89 69 89 68 / 10 10 10 40 Tuscaloosa 89 69 90 68 / 10 10 10 30 Calera 89 67 90 66 / 10 10 10 30 Auburn 88 67 89 68 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 89 66 90 68 / 30 10 10 10 Troy 88 65 89 67 / 20 10 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...08  025 FXUS65 KBOI 181149 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 549 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain showers on Monday, otherwise dry, breezy and slightly warmer. - Dry with temperatures warming back above normal starting on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Issued 257 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026 The tight surface pressure gradient behind an eastward exiting low pressure system will continue to generate breezy northwest winds today across much of the area. Wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph can be expected this afternoon, though they will not be quite as strong as what was observed on Sunday. While a stable air mass dominates the lower elevations, lingering afternoon instability will support a slight chance of light showers over the mountains today, with minimal accumulation expected. Northwest flow aloft will carry into Tuesday as high pressure builds over the Pacific. A more stable and dry air mass will keep conditions clear across the region, allowing temperatures to warm back to near normal values for this time of year. By Wednesday, an embedded shortwave trough will move through the intermountain west, tracking across our area into Wednesday night. This system will bring an increase in cloud cover along with light, isolated showers primarily focused across the West Central Mountains of Idaho. The arrival of this shortwave and its associated cloud cover will also work to slow down the overall warming trend as we transition into the long term period. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Issued 257 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026 A trough over Montana will dig into southern Idaho on Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures and a slight chance of high terrain showers (10-20% chance). This trough will quickly move east on Friday, bringing a return to dry northwest flow through Saturday with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. A weak shortwave passage will bring another low chance of showers over high terrain late Saturday into Sunday, but forecast confidence is very low. By Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will build into the region, bringing warm and dry conditions ahead of a strong upper level low diving down off the British Columbia coast. Models diverge substantially on the path of this upper level low early next week, with some members (ECMWF) bringing this low directly over the region by Monday evening. Current forecast does not favor this outcome, with a strong bias towards the warm and dry scenario on Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 539 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026 Generally VFR. Patchy fog/stratus in sheltered mtn valleys through morning. Scattered showers redevelop Monday PM across E Oregon and mtns of SW Idaho. Brief MVFR/IFR and obscuration in mtn precip. Monday snow levels: 5500-6500 ft MSL. Surface winds: W-N 10-20 kt with areas of gusts to 20-25 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N-NE 20- 35 kt. KBOI...VFR. Foothill showers return Monday PM. Surface winds: NW 10-18 kt with gusts around 25 kt, decreasing to SW-NW 4-8 kt after Tues/03Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for IDZ016. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SA SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....SA  151 FXUS63 KMKX 181151 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 651 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some weak pulse thunderstorms are possible this morning. - Another round of showers and storms late tonight into Tuesday with a potential for strong to severe storms. - Cool and drier weather then returns for midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued 643 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A few thunderstorms have popped up this morning over south central to southeast Wisconsin, riding some of the better low to mid level warm advection from an LLJ into the area. These storms should be fairly pulse like, having quick spikes in intensity, following by core collapses. Sub-severe hail and gusty winds, as well as lightning will be the main hazards. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Today through Tuesday: The nrn portion of the QLCS over ne IA and se MN has recently produced severe wind gusts but gradual weakening is expected as it moves into greater CIN. Farther to the south, the gust front is outrunning the convection but sporadic wind gusts of 40-50 mph are still occurring. For srn WI, gusty winds and scattered storms will continue to initiate along and behind the gust front during the early morning hours. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/KG will be present but with high LFCs at 650-700 MB. The high LFCs should aid in the further dissipation of the organized line and/or transitioning to elevated scattered storms. During this time, a wave of low pressure will track across MN to wrn Lake Superior and be the catalyst to shifting the warm front nwd into central WI. Thus the low stratus and areas of fog toward central WI will come to an end during the early morning hours. Some showers and storms will likely linger through later this morning, but capping will set in again and will aid in some scattering of clouds and temps nearing 80F for the afternoon. Another wave of low pressure will develop from the central Great Plains to nrn WI from late Mon afternoon until 12Z Tue, while the main shortwave trough tracks from the central Rockies to nw WI. The actual trailing cold front will likely not pass until Tue, but there is some confidence in another round of showers and storms for mainly after midnight (early Tue AM) as another MCS moves into srn WI from the west. The MCS may already have reached the dissipating stage at this time, but there is uncertainty with the timing of the evolution. Once again, damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. Finally, there may be some shower and storm development with the cold frontal passage Tue afternoon with severe probs are low at this time. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday night through Sunday: Gusty northwest winds remain in place through Tuesday night as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Winds gradually diminish into Wednesday as high pressure settles into the region. Temperatures are expected to be back into the 60s and low 70s for highs and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s through midweek. High pressure remains dominant through Thursday before propagating eastward into the Northeast U.S. Low pressure will begin to deepen in the lee of the Colorado Rockies, ejecting into the Plains Friday morning. With high pressure remaining over the Northeast, models are indicating a split low progression, with one portion of upper level energy propagating through the Lower Mississippi Valley along a Gulf humidity axis, and the other portion following the long wave pattern northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A few showers and thunderstorms may work their way in as early as Thursday night into Friday (15-25%), with more potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms into Friday nightand Saturday as the cold front from the Midwest low phases with the southern low. Confidence in timing and placement remains in question due to model discrepancies, so maintained NBM probabilities for this update. Precipitation exits Saturday night as ridging begins to build back into the southern Wisconsin from the central Plains. Expect temperatures to return to the upper 70s and low 80s Sunday as winds shift to southerly, with additional chances for storms Sunday night into Monday. MH && .AVIATION... Issued 645 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Mostly VFR conditions are expected today save for drops in flight category with any showers and storms. There is some potential for fog for lakeshore terminals this afternoon. Winds will be out of the south southwest and breezy. Tonight ceilings lower to MVFR and potentially IFR as a line of thunderstorms moves through from the west. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A warm front will move from southern Lake Michigan to northern Lake Michigan this morning. East to northeast winds will become breezy out of the south. Areas of dense fog may occur at times until the front passes. Breezy south winds will then continue through today into Tuesday followed by a wind shift to the northwest late Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front. High pressure and light and variable winds will then take hold from late Wednesday into Thursday. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from Sheboygan to North Point Lighthouse until 3 AM CDT today. The fog will dissipate once the warm front moves to the north, and south winds and milder temperatures arrive. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 7 PM Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM Tuesday to 4 PM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  129 FXUS64 KSHV 181151 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 651 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - A prolonged period of unsettled weather will bring both chances for severe weather and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall through most of the forecast period. - Impacts from thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain will generally range from gusty winds, hail, and possibly urban flash flooding. - Above normal temperatures to begin the work week will quickly trend below normal by mid and late week due to enhanced cloud cover and stormy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The upper level pattern at the time of this writing continues to be characterized by longwave troughing/cyclonic flow that extends from roughly the West Coast of the US and through the Rockies and into the Great Plains. Within this longwave trough exists a notable area of closed low pressure in the Great Basin vicinity, and can be easily detecting in water vapor imagery. Downstream from the longwave trough, a low-amplitude ridge is defined across the Southeastern US and into the Mid-Atlantic region. A look closer to the surface reveals an area of high pressure centered around Bermuda, with its ridge influence extending westward across the OH/TN Valleys and into the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains. A surface cyclone is detected near the OK/KS border, with a dryline located to its South across the TX panhandle and towards the Big Bend region. The above analysis places the Four State Region in deep SW aloft on the eastern flank of the longwave trough going into the overnight period tonight, with enhanced southerly low level flow streaming off the Gulf and making for a continued moist and unstable environment. Convection has recently sparked, likely aided in part by some warm air advection in the 850-700mb layer and perhaps the passage of some subtle vort maxes in the SW flow. This activity will wind down towards and after midnight, with an unseasonably warm night in store for the local area with lows in the low to mid 70s (with some areas hanging in the upper 70s). Monday will potentially be the driest day of the upcoming week, and really the forecast period. A cloudy and humid start should be anticipated. Isolated showers could be lingering across portions of the area, but coverage will wait to increase until daytime heating works in tandem with the moist and unstable conditions already in place. This should yield between 1000-2000J/kg of MLCAPE, possibly aided by subtle vort max activity. Without a distinct mechanism for large scale forcing in place on Monday, isolated single-cell activity can be expected, mainly carrying a threat for a brief period of small hail and gusty winds. A fairly tight synoptic scale pressure gradient throughout the day will yield breezy and gusty conditions area-wide on Monday, with areas across East Texas flirting with Wind Advisory Criteria. Currently do not think conditions will be widespread enough to warrant an advisory but near- term and/or real-time observations could dictate otherwise. A prolonged and very unsettled weather pattern will then take shape beginning Tuesday. A progressive northern stream shortwave trough across the Northern Great Plains within the longwave trough will help drive a cold front towards the local area on Tuesday. As the front propagates towards the area and eventually into the area during the afternoon and evening hours, it will encounter the very moist and unstable conditions present across our region. Lift along the front, along with the help of what appears to be a rather sufficient shortwave trough across Central TX looks to yield our next potential for severe weather. Ample instability and at least modest mid level lapse rates could lead to a wind and hail threat across the area. The lacking ingredient within this setup will be deep layer shear, which could inhibit updraft organization, however, there could still remain just enough to be problematic. By mid-week, this cold front will stall across the region. With rather good agreement amongst the ensemble solutions regarding the upper level pattern continuing to feature troughing off the Baja region, deep SW flow and a continued stream of H5 disturbances could promise decent potential for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall through the rest of the work week and likely even into the Memorial Day weekend. Where exactly the front stalls and where the most probable areas/regions of potential heavy rainfall within its vicinity is challenging to determine this far out. So the bottom line will emphasize that confidence is at least high in a prolonged period of unsettled weather and moderate to high rain and thunderstorm chances. Severe weather potential appears low, but this may change. Below normal temperatures can also be expected with the unsettled pattern, provided more cloud cover and anticipated periods of rainfall. CK && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Prevailing MVFR ceilings across most terminals this morning will give way to low VFR and or a scattering out of these ceilings by late morning and through the afternoon. Cannot rule out an isolated TSRA across our airspace with the aid of daytime heating continuing into the evening hours but coverage will not warrant a mention in this 06z package. Otherwise the gradient wind is another obstacle to deal with today with sustained SSE to S winds near 10-16kt by mid morning with gusts once again near 30kts. Strongest gusts should be across our NE TX terminal locations where pressure gradient will be a little tighter. Those winds should begin decoupling after sunset this evening. Reintroduced MVFR ceilings to most all terminals near or after midnight tonight/Tuesday Morning. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Spotter activation is not expected through Monday, however, it may be needed on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 75 90 71 / 20 20 50 70 MLU 91 74 91 70 / 30 20 40 70 DEQ 87 71 84 65 / 20 30 70 70 TXK 91 74 90 68 / 10 30 80 60 ELD 89 73 90 68 / 10 30 50 60 TYR 89 75 89 69 / 10 30 70 70 GGG 89 75 90 70 / 10 30 70 70 LFK 90 76 91 72 / 10 20 50 70 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...13  188 FXUS63 KEAX 181152 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 652 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue across the region this morning, with locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible. - Severe thunderstorms are likely late afternoon into late tonight. - Far NW Missouri and NE Kansas will be under the greatest threat for all severe hazards by late afternoon and early evening. - Storms should congeal into a line of thunderstorms by this evening, and move east southeast through the region late tonight. Once this occurs, damaging wind gusts should become the primary hazard, but a few brief tornadoes may be possible. - Moderate to heavy rain will be possible again with the storms tonight. A flood watch is in effect through almost the entire CWA through 7 AM Tuesday. - Cooler temperatures arrive for Tuesday through Thursday before heating up once more by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A mature mesoscale convective system (MCS) is moving through the CWA this early morning, with a few sporadic 50 to 60 mph wind gusts as well as relatively widespread 1+ inches of rain (isolated pockets have received a bit over 2"). The leading convective portion of the MCS will continue to move off to the east southeast through the next few hours, with CAM guidance suggesting convection stalling out toward the northern edge of the Ozark Plateau by later this morning and continuing into the afternoon hours. With around 1.8 to 1.9" PWATs in this region and the potential for a prolonged period of moderate rainfall, WPC has upgraded the new Day 1 excessive rainfall outlook to a moderate for Linn County KS into Bates and Henry County MO (although 00z SPC HREF guidance keeps the corridor of heaviest rainfall just south of our CWA toward the Lake of the Ozarks and surrounding areas). Attention then turns to the severe and heavy rainfall threat later tonight as the mid/upper trough moves out of the Four Corner regions and ejects across the Central Plains this afternoon and evening with strengthening WSW deep layer flow overspreading the region. Recent CAM guidance suggests that convective initiation should occur by mid to late afternoon along the stalled or slow moving northeast to southwest oriented front across western IA into SE Nebraska and NE Kansas within an environment characterized by moderate to high instability and 40+ knots of deep layer shear. The window for discrete storms will likely be fairly small as deep layer shear vectors are generally parallel to the front, allowing for upscale growth into clusters or line segments. The greatest threat for all severe hazards will be late afternoon/early evening across far NW Missouri (Atchison, Holt, and Nodaway) and NE Kansas (Doniphan) where storms could remain relatively discrete initially. A well developed line is projected to develop along the front by later this evening across NW Missouri into NE Kansas, moving to the east southeast through the late evening hours into late tonight, at which point severe wind gusts should become the primary hazard, although with strong low level bulk shear there will be a threat for QLCS mesovortices, especially considering CAM guidance suggests the potential for bowing segments tonight. In addition to the severe threat, locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible yet again with PWAT values ranging from 1.6 to 2". Due to the threat for heavy rainfall this morning and again late tonight, have decided to expand the flood watch to almost the entire CWA through 7 AM Tuesday morning. Cooler temperatures and much more comfortable dew points are expected for Tuesday through Thursday, with daily afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s. There will be a 40 to 50% chance for showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening, but severe weather is not anticipated. Warmer temperatures and increasing moisture return should arrive by Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the region this morning. These should come to an end at STJ by around 14z and the KC metro terminals by around 16z. SSE winds should increase with gusts up to 30 knots by later this morning, continuing through the afternoon hours. A line of severe thunderstorms is likely to impact STJ between roughly 00z and 03z tonight, moving through the KC metro terminals between 02z and 05z tonight. Severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with periods of moderate to heavy rain reducing VIS significantly. Stratiform rain with perhaps a few lightning strikes may linger behind the main convective line into early Tuesday morning. MVFR CIGs are likely by around 6z Wednesday morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MOZ001>007-011>016- 020>024-028>032-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW  186 FXUS63 KLSX 181152 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 652 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day with heavy rainfall in some locations potentially leading to flash flooding. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening with the main hazards being hail and damaging wind gusts. - Additional thunderstorms are forecast late tonight and early Tuesday morning with another round possible along a cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A complex of thunderstorms, that as of 09z, is currently positioned near Quincy MO to Warrensburg MO. This activity initiated across KS/NE on Sunday evening and has continued to push southeastward early this morning, with arrival in central/northeast MO expect around 09-10z. Within the last few hours, this complex has become outflow dominant, which has led to a gradual weakening trend from the severe wind gusts it was producing across northwestern MO around midnight. Upstream observations indicate that the gust front has been achieving winds gusts in the 30-50mph range. As a result, the main severe hazard tied to these storms as they move into the area are expected to be scattered wind gusts up to 50mph, along with frequent lightning and heavy rain. In fact, one of the main concerns regarding the short term is now the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, mainly across central/south-central MO and points west. CAMs are in good consensus that the southeastward progress of this thunderstorm complex will continue to slow as it makes its way into the area this morning. Additionally, there are signs that backbuilding of thunderstorms may occur as the remnant outflow boundary/line of convection stall in a west-east orientation, with strong low-level southerly warm/moist advection overrunning this stationary boundary. Analysis of forecast soundings unveils a plentiful amount of uniform CAPE (around 1,500 J/kg) throughout the column, along with warm cloud temperatures with freezing levels around 12-14kft AGL. In addition, PWATs are currently in the 1.4-1.5" range, with the latest HREF indicating values increasing to 1.7-1.9" today, which is near the 99th percentile. Lastly, the HREF LPMM precipitation reveals the potential for a west-east oriented swath of 2-4" with localized pockets of 4-6" possible. Given all of the variables mentioned above, the risk of heavy rainfall has prompted us to issue a Flash Flood Watch for central/south-central MO and portions of east- central MO that is in effect from 12z today through this evening. Regarding the severe weather potential throughout the day, the threat remains for an isolated thunderstorm becoming strong/severe with hazards being hail along with damaging winds. This potential appears to be lower due to the lingering showers and thunderstorms across a large portion of the area, inhibiting solar insolation, and thus, robust destabilization this afternoon. Regardless, given the warm/moist summerlike airmass in place and the continuation of steepened mid-level lapse rates, maintaining sufficient instability, the threat for an isolated severe storm remains. A few locations may be able to clear by this afternoon, allowing the environment to recover and destabilize, and potentially the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms to increase in localized areas. With uncertainty regarding the evolution/coverage of lingering showers/storms, confidence is low regarding the extent of severe weather that may be realized across the area this afternoon and evening. By tonight, the large-scale pattern features a broad mid/upper level trough to the west, with an embedded shortwave ejecting northeastward into the Great Plains. This mid-level feature triggers lee-side surface cyclogenesis across the Central Plains/Midwest near a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone. Convection is modeled by high resolution guidance to initiate along this boundary in KS/NE, with quick upscale growth ensuing with eastward progression. The surface low is modeled to lift northeast into the Midwest on Tuesday, which begins to slowly shift the quasi-stationary baroclinic zone southeastward as a cold front. However, this convection is progged by guidance to outrun this slowly advancing cold front out west, and gradually weaken as it approaches the area. This weakening trend appears reasonable since the best deep-layer shear remains displaced to the north and west of the area and forcing for ascent will be limited without convection tied to the boundary. Regardless, this threat for severe weather late Monday night into early Tuesday morning will include the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, if surges or bowing segments occur, then severe outflow gusts or embedded circulations leading to brief tornadoes may also be possible. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that the cold front will approach northeast MO/west-central IL Tuesday morning with it exiting to the southeast late Tuesday evening. Locations that remain pre-frontal for a majority of the day on Tuesday will have the greatest severe weather threat. The big question that remains is, how quickly will the atmosphere recover from the early Tuesday morning convection by the time the front is working its way through the area. As of now, it appears the severe weather threat will be greatest from east-central MO and points southeastward, as these locations will have the best chance to destabilize in the early afternoon on before the arrival of the front. Regardless, instability and mid-level flow are still forecast to be sufficient enough to support organized storms with potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Any lingering outflow boundaries from morning convection may serve as areas of focus for thunderstorm development in the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Peine && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Sunday) Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Low-level cold air advection within the post-frontal airmass will lead to much cooler conditions for Wednesday, with highs forecast to be around 10-15 degrees below average. Quasi-zonal flow aloft encompasses the region through the end of the week, which should allow for a period of dry conditions until Friday. By the end of the week, the general trend of LREF temperature IQRs is a gradual warmup to temperatures right around climatological normals. Peine && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 652 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A complex of thunderstorms continues to slide eastward early this morning, nearing KUIN just before 12z with arrival expected at the St. Louis metro terminals around 13-14z. The leading edge of this complex has already impacted KCOU, producing a 62kt wind gust, which has been the highest wind gust observed in the region this morning. The leading edge of this convection will be capable of scattered severe wind gusts where bowing segments occur. Given the low predictability for scattered winds gusts of this nature, mention of winds to this magnitude were not included in downstream TAFs. Short term trends along the leading edge will need to be monitored as this complex approaches the metro with amendments as needed. In addition, brief IFR visibilites are possible along the leading edge of this convection within the stronger thunderstorms. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger throughout the morning at all terminals with intermittent impacts of MVFR visibilities/ceilings associated with the heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms. Gradual improvements are forecast to begin later this morning into the early afternoon, however, confidence in how long showers and scattered thunderstorms linger remains low. In addition to MVFR impacts, strong and gusty southerly winds should prevail with gusty and variable winds associated with showers and thunderstorms. Dry and VFR conditions are forecast this evening and early tonight before another potential complex of storms moves in from the northwest early on Tuesday. Peine && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through this evening for Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Moniteau MO- Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  190 FXUS64 KLCH 181152 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 652 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and warm conditions will prevail again today with a few showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. - A prolonged period of unsettled weather will develop beginning Tuesday afternoon and continue through the end of the week with high precipitation chances each day. - Marginal Risk (lvl 1 of 5) for severe weather covering northwest portions of the area Tuesday afternoon. Wind and hail will be the greatest hazards. - Several inches of rain are expected across the region Tuesday through next Sunday with a Marginal Risk (lvl 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall highlighting all areas each day Tue-Thu with more likely beyond. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A weak upper perturbation / nocturnal jet moving across northeast Texas made easy work of the moisture flux from today. A north- south axis of showers currently exists just west of the Sabine. This area will slowly move east thru sunrise and may squeeze a few showers down to the AEX metro, but largely this shouldn't impact our forecast region. Morning hours should be quiet, albeit perhaps a bit dreary. Winds increase with sunrise as the pressure gradient between boundary present in the Plains and weakening but present high over the Carolinas. Should be a similar day as far as breeziness goes, but still not anticipating a prolonged period of definite strong sustained winds. Thus, a wind advisory is not anticipated at this time. Moisture will continue filtering in, filling out the column, through the morning. 00Z RAOB reported 1.61 inches PWAT, however as seen by mesoanalysis, PWAT values 1.80 to 2.00 inches (greater than 90th percentile) have already surged up the Texas coast, helping to generate the area of active showers seen tonight. This anomalously moist airmass will remain in place overtop our region, waiting in place for a forcing mechanism to generate some convection. An area of diurnal/seabreeze showers/storms looks to develop in south central LA before moving north. The typical quick downpour, windy summer storm should result. The first round of active convection should then arrive by late Tuesday in the form of a decaying QLCS feature. The act of this boundary moving southeast will deflect remaining high pressure influence from the east, leaving the door open for active weather. A series of disturbances will move over the northwest Gulf from Wednesday onward bringing about daily chances for widespread rainfall. From Tuesday nigh to the early weekend, it's reasonable to expect 2 to 4 inches area-wide with higher local totals. The flash flooding threat will increase each day with rounds of rainfall onto semi-wet antecedent conditions, so keep your flash flood response plans in the back of your mind as we near the end of the week. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 While few areas of MVFR BKN ceiling exist this morning. Conditions will trend borderline VFR / MVFR today as diurnal mixing allow SCT / BKN cloud bases around 2-3kt through the afternoon. Isolated chances of precip remain in the forecast so some terminals, particularly across SETX and well interior SWLA may see VCSH. Guidance is suggesting potentially heavy precip developing southward across central LA tonight around dusk. Coastal site TAFs will update in next TAF package to reflect timing as ceilings begin to drop and become OVC by evening twilight. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tightened pressure gradient will remain in place through at least Tuesday morning. A boundary of disturbed weather is expected to near the region on Tuesday causing all remaining high pressure influence to back eastward. This decrease in pressure will loosen the gradient allowing winds and then seas to fall back on Tuesday, remaining low through the remainder of the week. Rain chances increase Tuesday night and will remain elevated through the rest of the forecast as a series of disturbances cross the region. Winds will prevail somewhat low and onshore, however volatile winds and seas could be possible local to storms each day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tightened pressure gradient will remain in place through at least Tuesday morning. A boundary of disturbed weather is expected to near the region on Tuesday causing all remaining high pressure influence to back eastward. This decrease in pressure will loosen the gradient allowing winds to diminish before the arrival of a very wet and disturbed weather pattern from late Tuesday to the end of the week. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ450-452-470- 472. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11 AVIATION...30  152 FXUS65 KCYS 181151 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 550 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .UPDATE... Issued at 449 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Monitoring blizzard conditions over the northern Snowy Range Foothills at this hour. Current observations along the Interstate 80 corridor from Walcott Junction to Arlington show visibility as low as 1/8th of a mile with winds gusting 50 to 65 MPH. Going to give this another hour or so, and then may need to upgrade to a Blizzard Warning if this continues. Also monitoring central Carbon County with similar conditions just starting in and around Rawlins. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow through Monday afternoon with Winter Storm Warnings for many of our high elevation and mountain zones and Winter Weather Advisories for nearby zones. - Near record cold Monday and Monday night will lead to widespread freezing temperatures, which may damage sensitive vegetation and outdoor irrigation systems. - Slow warming trend by the mid to late week with temperatures near normal by Thursday and Friday. Chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms each day through Friday evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 255 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Late season winter storm ongoing across southeast Wyoming with everywhere above 6500 feet changing to snow within the last 3 hours. Rain/snow line is roughly 10 miles west of Cheyenne at this hour based on area webcams which show snowfall at the Warren Exchange along I-80. Most of Interstate 80 west of there shows very difficult travel conditions with some of the worst conditions on the I-80 Summit, which is currently experiencing visibility below one half mile in heavy snow. Snow is starting to accumulate on the roads above 7000 feet and expect this to continue through much Monday morning. Storm system is just starting to intensify at this hour...as seen by the current IR Satellite loop with cooling cloud tops over most of Wyoming and the distinct "comma cloud" beginning to take shape. No changes yet to Winter Weather headlines, but will need to keep a close eye on the I-25 corridor, the Pine Ridge, and the higher hills around Scottsbluff and Banner county for potential extensions this morning. Thankfully, even if snowfall rates become an issue, snow will struggle to stick on the pavement shortly after sunrise. Snow will be ongoing as we head into this afternoon, although with the high May sun angle impacts should be limited with melting on area roadways. Snowfall rates will begin to ease down during the middle of the afternoon as the best dynamic forcing shifts east into the high plains. Some rain/snow mix expected down to 4500 to 5000 feet, but little in the way of accumulations since this will occur during the daytime hours. Remnant snow (or rain/snow mix below 5000 feet) will taper off and finally end by midnight tonight as the storm system transitions to an open wave trough and rapidly ejects northeast. Once all is said and done, this system should provide much needed moisture to the area with around a half inch of precip for the eastern plains, and close to 1.00 inch to as high as 1.50 inches for southeast Wyoming. Main forecast concern after today will be how quickly we clear out at night. There is increasing confidence that a good part of the eastern plains with clear out by daybreak Tuesday with portions of Carbon county below 50% cloud cover as well. A hard freeze is expected late tonight through most of Tuesday morning, with freezing temperatures likely lasting until shortly before noon in portions of the forecast area. This is due to a record breaking unseasonably cold airmass behind the main storm system, which is forecast to settle over the area today. Current 10th to 25th percentile low temperatures tonight are between 14 to 20 degrees over most of the high valleys in southeast Wyoming, with 17 to 27 degrees across the eastern plains. Upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for east central Wyoming and far northwestern Nebraska since these are the most likely zones to see clearing skies earlier in the night. Kept the Watch going for the remainder of the area, but mainly to see how this current storm system and potential snowfall pans out first. Conditions will improve a little on Tuesday with 700mb temperatures between -2c to -5c under northwest flow. High temperatures will be warmest where there is no snow pack...mainly over far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska with highs in the 50s to low 60s. Further west, expect highs to generally be in the 40s and even upper 30s in areas with the deepest snow pack. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Certainly less active than the short term, but the long term period will still have some impacts. We will likely dip below freezing again on Tuesday night especially in regions that don't melt away all of their snow (i.e. areas west of the I-25 corridor). On Wednesday, temperatures will gradually moderate into the upper 50s to near 60 east of the Laramie Range and upper 40s to lower 50s west given weak isentropic ascent/warm advection as the longwave trough responsible for our anomalously cool weather dampens. There may be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and thunderstorms primarily over the higher terrain, however probabilities of seeing QPF > 0.05" are running at about 25%, so any moisture is unlikely to be beneficial. Given dry boundary layers as shown on model forecast soundings show a very dry boundary layer with surface dewpoint depressions exceeding 40 degrees, showers and thunderstorms will likely produce far more wind than rain. Temperatures gradually warm on Thursday and Friday as a series of shortwave troughs embedded in quasi-zonal flow traverse across Eastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska, leaving in low (30%) chances for high-based showers and thunderstorms. Highs will gradually increase to climatological values (mid-upper 60s for Cheyenne to near 70 for the Nebraska Panhandle). Heading into the weekend, we will begin to dry out and encounter a faster warming trend to above- average temperatures as weak mid-level ridging establishes itself over the Rocky Mountain West, with no widespread or beneficial precipitation chances in sight. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 550 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Potent late spring storm system will bring widespread snow above 5000 feet, and rain/snow mix below 5000 feet through much of the day today. Storm system is forecast to weaken and quickly eject eastward by tonight. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: All southeast Wyoming are IFR or LIFR or will be shortly. Expect these conditions through most of today, with conditions slowly improving to MVFR or VFR between 22z today and 03z Tuesday. For western Nebraska, MVFR CIGS have developed with periods of rain. These CIGS will continue to lower this morning with widespread IFR conditions expected by 14z to 20z. Showers will also become heavier and mix with snow at times later this afternoon. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for WYZ106-113-115>119. Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ101-102-107-108. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ101- 105-106-111-115-117. Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for WYZ102. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ103- 104-109-110-112-114-116. Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning forWYZ104-105-109>111. NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for NEZ002-003-020-021-054-055. Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for NEZ019-095-096. && $$ UPDATE...TJT SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...NB AVIATION...TJT  211 FXUS66 KMTR 181153 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 453 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1147 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions, especially across the North, East, and South Bay Mountains and the Santa Cruz Mountains through Monday - Hazardous beach conditions through Monday - Hazardous marine conditions expected through Monday - Elevated fire weather concerns continue through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1147 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (Tonight through Monday) An upper level low pressure system digs into the tri-state area of CO, UT, and WY by late Monday morning. We remain under the influence of the broader trough associated with it, leading to breezy offshore flow. North to northeast winds pick up tonight across the Santa Cruz Mountains, the interior North Bay Mountains, and the Eastern Santa Clara and East Bay Hills. Sustained wind speeds of 15 to 30 mph along with gusts up to 50 mph, though localized gusts up to 60 mph are expected for favored ridges, gaps, and passes. These winds will usher in drier air to the region as well, keeping the fire weather threat elevated for interior Bay Area and Central Coast locations. In terms of more every day hazards from the winds, impacts include, but are not limited to difficult driving, especially for high profile vehicles, downed tree limbs, the potential for power outages, and the possibility of loose or unsecured items being blown around. Winds begin to ease late Monday morning into the afternoon and will continue to decrease into the evening and overnight hours. Offshore winds should bring some warmer temperatures to the region, the 90s for the interior Bay Area valleys, the 60s to low 70s along the coast, and the mid 70s to low 80s for the Central Coast Valleys. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1147 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (Tuesday through next Sunday) Upper level troughing looks to hold just west of the Desert Southwest and into southern CA Tuesday into Wednesday, leaving us with teetering between quasi-zonal and barely trough-y. Weak offshore lingers at least over the interior mountain ranges through Tuesday into Wednesday, with onshore flow trying to make a diurnally driven push each afternoon/evening. During this time high pressure just to the west of us (over the eastern Pacific) builds, pushing towards the coast mid week. The upper level trough begins to meander south to southwest of southern California late week. This should bring a return of onshore flow to the region and perhaps the marine layer. Current guidance suggests we could see a 500ft marine layer return by Wednesday, with a 1000-1200ft marine layer by Thursday and Friday. Will need to keep an eye on this as it will affect how temperatures pan out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 449 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Strong winds aloft continue to move through the region causing widespread LLWS (both in speed and directions)into the mid to late morning. Gusty winds will be possible across most sites north of the Monterey Bay through the morning. Winds aloft decrease into the mid to late morning and begin to match up with moderate to breezy surface winds. The general wind pattern switches from northerly to westerly into the night, with winds becoming light into the late night. Haze from sea spray will continue to affect the coast. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Gusty northerly winds continue to affect the terminal with even stronger winds aloft, leading to LLWS. Winds aloft reduce slightly and align better with gusty surface winds in the mid morning. Gusts reduce into the mid afternoon and winds turn more northwest before winds turn light into the night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Surfaces wind stay light through the morning with stronger winds aloft continuing to offer LLWS. Expect surface winds to increase and turn northwest into the late morning, while winds aloft reduce. Moderate northwest winds will ease and become light into the night, with MRY going southerly. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 449 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Winds are reducing across the marine environment, but widespread gale- force gusts are no longer expected. Seas and winds will still offer hazardous conditions for small craft into the mid weak before easing for most zones. Winds will remain hazardous for small craft into the late week for the northern outer zone. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 449 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Strong and gusty north to northeast winds continue to affect the region. Expect peak gusts greater than 30 mph for most areas, with around 45 to 55 mph along through gaps and passes, and across higher terrain. These winds will begin to reduce in the late morning but remain breezy until the late night. Daytime humidity retentions loos to stay around 10- 25% across the interior regions and higher peaks, with limited overnight humidity recoveries. Humidities will be slow to recover into the work week as a light offshore flow will continue to affect the district. && .BEACHES... Issued at 449 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast through 9 AM due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ006- 505-509-530. Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ504-512-514- 515. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506. PZ...Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  315 FXUS63 KGRB 181155 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 655 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall possible at times through tonight. The greatest coverage of storms will occur across the northwest half of the forecast area in the late evening and overnight hours tonight. - Drier and cooler weather returns mid to late week. Frost or freeze headlines may be needed over mainly northern WI Tuesday night and Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A cluster of strong thunderstorms was ongoing over north central WI early this morning, in advance of a short-wave trough. This activity had marginal instability (MUCAPE 1000-1500) and strong deep layer shear (45-50 kts) to work with, and a few storms were pulsing to near-severe levels and exhibiting mid-level rotation at times. A marginal severe threat will continue over north central and perhaps far northeast WI through about 5 am. Otherwise, low clouds and areas of fog (locally dense) covered much of the region, and temperatures were stuck in the upper 40s to middle 50s. A warm front was situated across southern WI, where temperatures were in the lower to middle 70s. The warm front will lift north today, but there is some question if it will reach northern WI this afternoon. As the front lifts north and daytime heating commences, the foggy conditions should improve this morning. Have lowered max temperatures several degrees, especially over northern WI. Still expecting decreased coverage of storms today due to cloud cover, capping, a weakening low-level jet and weak mid to upper level ridging. Decreasing deep layer shear should also result in a lesser threat of severe storms during the day. Will keep slight chance to chance pops through the day and into the early evening hours. A surface wave will lift into north central WI later this evening, followed by a cold frontal passage during the overnight hours. CAMs show an uptick in thunderstorms over central and north central WI later in the evening, with a linear MCS moving through mainly north central and far northeast WI during the overnight hours. The late night timing of this is not especially favorable for severe storms, though MUCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg and deep layer shear increasing to 35-50 kts supports severe potential. The cold front sweeps through eastern WI Tuesday morning with lingering showers and a few storms, but dry weather returns by afternoon. Tuesday will be a windy day with west to northwest winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph. Temps over eastern WI will remain above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s, but cooler readings in the 50s and 60s are expected farther west. High pressure will bring dry and cooler conditions for the middle of the week, with potential for frost or freeze headlines Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Warmer temperatures and small precipitation chances return for the weekend. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Showers and isolated storms will impact mainly the southeast half of the forecast area this morning. This should be followed by a lull in precipitation as capping suppresses convective development. Showers and storms will increase again later in the evening and overnight as a low pressure system and cold front arrive. The greatest threat of storms and possible severe weather is expected across central, north central and far northeast WI between 11 pm and 4 am. Areas of fog and very low stratus will improve as a warm front lifts north this morning. The low clouds will be most persistent in northern WI, where the warm front may stall out in the afternoon. Models suggest that low clouds will return in the evening and overnight hours. Winds will become southerly and a bit gusty as a warm front lifts north today. Winds will turn SW-W late tonight as the front moves through. There may be periods of LLWS at the eastern TAF sites after midnight tonight. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch AVIATION.......Kieckbusch  729 FXUS64 KMAF 181136 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 636 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through Tuesday. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame. - Critical fire weather conditions expected for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. - Rain and storm chances increase (40-80% chances) by the middle to latter part of the week. We will be monitoring a few strong to severe storms each day. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns over locations east of the Pecos River Wednesday into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Another hot and windy day is expected across the region, particularly over southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas. Antecedent dry conditions combined with the dry air will make for critical fire weather conditions. More information on that can be found below in the fire weather discussion. Many locations will reach into the mid to upper 90s with a number of spots near the century mark. Winds will decay by tonight, but temperatures will only fall into the 60s and 70s. A cold front approaches the region by Tuesday morning and slowly stalls near the Pecos River Valley. The front and present dryline combine to increase storm chances across the eastern portions of the CWA. A few strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Depending on the timing and strength of the front, temperatures will be a touch cooler for most compared to today, though will still reach into the low to mid 90s. Highs in the 100s will be seen along the Rio Grande. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday night and into Wednesday sees an upper level disturbance move across from the west. This combined with the dryline moved further west will lead to higher rain chances across most of the region for Wednesday and into Thursday. Strong to severe storms will be possible on both days, but it remains to be seen what hazards these storms will contain and just how much rain will fall and where. Below normal temperatures will take hold from Wednesday through at least Saturday as easterly flow and a favorable upper level environment keep temperatures on the cool side for mid to late May. Low (10-20%) rain chances hold on from Friday and into the weekend particularly across the Davis Mountains and eastern portions of the CWA. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A few areas are seeing patchy low clouds lead to MVFR CIGs, but these conditions are too brief to include with this issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will hold through the day. Winds become gusty with speeds topping out between 20-30kts during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Have expanded the inherited Red Flag Warning to include most of Culberson County as well as Andrews County. Well above normal temperatures, exceedingly dry conditions (both a lack of rainfall and critically low min RHs), and breezy winds will make for critical fire weather conditions across southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas this afternoon. An upper level low moving into the Rockies will provide the increasing southwesterly winds that not only aide in fire spread, but can also be attributed to the expected above normal temperatures today. Beyond today, critically low relative humidities return on Tuesday, but winds will be much lighter. The nearbydryline sharpens on Wednesday and is forced back towards the western edge of the CWA bringing strong moisture return and a chance for wetting rains for Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 99 71 90 61 / 0 10 30 40 Carlsbad 94 63 94 61 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 102 73 97 68 / 0 0 30 20 Fort Stockton 100 67 98 64 / 0 0 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 93 59 91 57 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 91 54 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 97 69 93 62 / 0 0 10 30 Odessa 97 69 93 63 / 0 0 10 30 Wink 98 63 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson- Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor- Winkler. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93