033 FXAK69 PAFG 181315 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 515 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather continues across majority of northern Alaska as southerly flow has set up from a low in the Bering. Portions of the western Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait may continue to see a chance for mixed precipitation through the end of today. Over the next few days, a series of fronts will work their way across the state, bringing chances for isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Most of the precipitation will be confined to the west of the Central Interior as the southerly flow over the Alaska Range will result in downsloping across the Eastern Interior. Some isolated showers may still be possible on the south facing side of elevated terrain. In addition to this, these systems will bring another round of gusty gap winds through the Alaska Range passes. Cold and cloudy conditions are expected to continue over the North Slope through the end of the week as high pressure continues to linger over the Arctic. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated to scattered showers are expected to begin for the Interior today into Tuesday with a non-zero chance of embedded thunderstorms amongst the showers. - Southerly winds will be diurnally driven throughout the week. Another round of strong gap winds are expected through the Alaska Range passes beginning late tonight, persisting through Tuesday night. Wind gusts through Isabel and Windy Pass are expected to be between 45 and 55 mph. The strongest gusts are expected through Isabel Pass. - Seasonably normal temperatures are expected to continue across the Interior through much of the week. West Coast and Western Interior... - Periods of wintry mix are expected to continue through this morning from St. Lawrence Island to the Bering Strait. Light ice accumulations are possible. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon. - Gusty S-SE winds are expected across the West Coast Tuesday afternoon with the shortwave passage. - Numerous waves of precipitation is expected to move N/NW across the YK-Delta throughout the week. Most of the precipitation will fall as rain, but some patches of wet snow is possible. - Another round of freezing precipitation is possible through the Bering Strait late Tuesday night into Wednesday. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Chilly temperatures persist with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens along the North Slope. A gradient of temperatures across the Brooks Range with highs in the 50s to near 60 along the southern slopes and low 40s for the northern slopes. - Northeast wind speeds are expected remain elevated for the western North Slope through tonight. There may be periods of blowing snow at Point Lay if there remains enough blowable snow to their northeast. - Showery conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday along the southern portions of the Brooks Range. Little to no precipitation is expected across the North Slope. - A brief period of increased wind gusts is expected for the NE Arctic Coast Tuesday, bringing the potential for blowing snow. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Monday through Wednesday. An active pattern continues across much of the state to kick off the week. The bulk of the weather is being driven by a Bering low that has been spinning west of St. Lawrence Island over the last day or so. Meanwhile, an upper-level high has set up over the western Chukchi, along with a ridge strengthening over Canada. The forecast period starts with a line of showers across the central portion of the West Coast, that will continue to shift to the N/NW throughout today. With cold air advection moving south down the Bering, the western side of this line of showers, extending over the Bering Strait, will see a chance for wintry precipitation through the end of today. Another line of energy will move north across the state today, bringing chances for scattered showers and a slight chance for isolated afternoon thunderstorms. This wave will also work to continue the southerly flow that has been set up across majority of the state. With the southerly flow continuing, the south facing slopes of the Brooks Range are expected to get persistent showers with each of these passing systems. A more pronounced shortwave will follow behind the line of energy, moving over the Seward Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. This will continue to allow the chances for isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms for the Central Interior and West Coast through the middle portions of the week. Looking back over the Interior, majority of the area will continue to see the southerly flow set up by the broad troughing across the state. This will keep the area mostly dry, however a shower or two may still be possible at times. With the shortwave moving over the Seward Peninsula, energy from this will extend over the Alaska Range as it shifts north. This will help enhance the gradient and bring the next round for gusty gap winds beginning early Tuesday morning. A similar pattern is expected to continue toward the later half of the week. By the end of the short-term period, another low will be moving along the northern side of the Aleutians, towards Bristol Bay. This will help to continue the broad troughing across the state and set up another potential for gusty gap winds through the Alaska Range on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... A low continues to spin in the Bering Sea with ridging persisting over western Canada. As expected, this pattern will allow for strong southerly flow to continue over the state. As the pressure gradient briefly weakens over the Alaska Range, winds will weaken by the late morning before restrengthening Tuesday morning. This second round of winds through the passes will mimic fairly similar conditions this past weekend with gusts as high as 60 mph possible through Isabel and Windy Pass, and gusts as high as 50 mph through Delta Junction. This cycle of rising and falling winds looks to repeat itself again, with winds weakening Wednesday and strengthening again on Thursday. With min RH values at Delta Junction expected to hover at or near 25% throughout the week, we will be keeping an eye out for potential Red Flag conditions, especially when the winds are strongest Tuesday and Thursday. Across the rest of Northern Alaska, sunny skies and prolonged daytime heating will keep high temperatures in the 60s, with the warmest temperatures expected on Tuesday in the Yukon Flats. Min RH values will bottom out around 20% across much of the Tanana Valley and Yukon Flats on Tuesday as well, with the western portions of Alaska seeing min RH values between 30 to 40% through the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon rain showers will be possible across the Yukon Delta and eastern Interior this week, but accumulations should remain light. A few of these showers may develop into thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday afternoon, but overall lightning chances should remain low. Winds away from the Alaska Range will generally be out of the south/southeast becoming gusty in the evening and at higher elevations. && .HYDROLOGY... Yukon River: The breakup front on the Yukon has passed Grayling. Water remains high on the Yukon upriver from the breakup front due to snowmelt with a Flood Warning remaining in effect for Galena through 10 PM tonight. No significant flooding is expected from this high water, although there may be areas of minor flooding. The latest datafrom the river gauge at Galena shows the water levels dropping down to 123.7ft and into Action Stage. High water is possible in some villages along the Lower Yukon over the next few days. Buckland River: Water levels are falling and the river upstream of Buckland is open. Chena: The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than normal, but likely remaining below action stage. Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through next Sunday. High confidence remains in place through the extended forecast, with a broad upper level trough over the Bering Sea and a ridge of high pressure situated in the NE Pacific. This setup will remain conducive for southerly flow to continue across much of the state, keeping temperatures near normal with highs around the 30s/40s/50s along the coast and 50s/60s in the Interior. The coldest conditions will continue to be across the North Slope north of the Brooks Range where highs in the 20s/30s will be more common with 40s farther south. Long range models remain in good agreement on the location and strength of a surface low around 985 mb in the Southern Bering Sea for Thursday. This system is expected to take a northeast track towards Southwest Alaska and as it does, eject a series of fronts into Northern Alaska that will keep daily scattered showers around heading into the weekend. As this low approaches, a pressure gradient will develop with high pressure over the High Arctic which will lead to gusty winds developing along the West Coast and through Alaska Range Passes. Wind gusts up to around 25-40 mph are expected along the West Coast with gusts up to around 50-65 mph for Alaska Range Passes and at Delta Junction. As the late week Bering Sea low ultimately weakens and dissipates its energy, long range models remain in reasonable agreement on another 985 mb low moving into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend. At this time, this system is expected to stay farther south, with daily scattered shower chances reinforced into early next week by the now broad upper level troughing setup over our region. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821-827. Flood Watch for AKZ829-830. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-851-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858. && $$ Twombly MacKay - Extended Santiago - Fire Wx  370 FXUS61 KGYX 181328 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 928 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Light rain continues to lift through the western forecast area, with a few isolated showers developing further south and east. The lightning threat has largely diminished as the system moves into a more stable environment. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Cooler today in ME with southeasterly winds, but still very warm across much of NH. A few showers possible this morning in central and northern NH including the western ME mountains. 2. Tuesday and Wednesday should feature the warmest temperatures of the year thus far with chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some potentially strong. 3. Expect cooler and dry conditions to end the work week with temperatures around or slightly below normal for this time of year through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will slide offshore early this morning allowing SFC winds to have an easterly component going through the day today. With ocean temperatures still in the 40s, most Maine zones outside of the mountains should be a good deal cooler today. Temperatures will continue to be quite warm in much of NH as the ocean will obviously have lesser of a cooling influence. A modest burst of WAA aloft will aid in a chance for showers across central and northern NH this morning, with perhaps even a rumble of thunder will relatively steep lapse rates aloft. This activity should lift northeastward into the western ME mountains and foothills by late morning then dry out. The rest of the forecast area should remain dry. Showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder may affect northernmost NH and the western ME mountains tonight but the bulk of the activity should remain in Canada as warm front returns northward there. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A progressive low amplitude shortwave trough will pass north of the forecast area on Tuesday, flattening the ridge a bit and leading to some modest height falls. A band of mid-level westerlys in the 40 to 50 knot range will spread across the region through early afternoon, which could lead to some early day storms in the vicinity of the southern Kennebec Valley and portions of the Midcoast. A second wave will approach New Hampshire late afternoon or early evening. Storms may be ongoing over Vermont before moving into New Hampshire and we could also have some additional development over the mountains. In both potential storm regimes, storm coverage remains uncertain given nebulous forcing mechanisms and less than ideal diurnal timing (early in the day for the eastern storms and closer to evening for the western/northern storms). All in all, both environments could see CAPE values in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and deep layer shear up to 35 knots or so. Thus, any storms that do form could become strong or marginally severe with the primary threats of small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Showers and storms should diminish mid to late evening. A cold front will move across the area of Wednesday and guidance has continued the trend of speeding that passage up. In fact, the NAM almost has the front around the Midcoast by 18z. So, we do have a risk for some stronger storms earlier in the day on Wednesday along and ahead of the front but the window will be short before the boundary moves out over the waters. Tuesday and Wednesday will also be the warmest days of the year thus far with widespread highs in the 80s and potentially even in the lower 90s. Tuesday's highs will range from the upper 70s and lower 80s north, to the upper 80s and lower 90s south. Coastal areas may be a little bit cooler given an onshore wind component. Wednesday will be a touch cooler for mostwith the passage of the cold front. We will still see widespread highs in the low to mid 80s along and south of the Foothills. Temperatures over the higher terrain will max out in the lower 60s to low/mid 70s. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... We will cool down behind the front through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. The coolest day will be on Thursday when highs will mainly range from the low to mid 50s north, to the low to mid 60s south. We warm just slightly on Friday and temperatures generally stay around or slightly below normal through the weekend. The weather pattern also favors dry conditions during this time frame. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12z Tuesday...Mainly VFR today with showers and isolated thunderstorms approaching from the west this morning. VFR tonight for most locations. However, with low level easterlies we may see some MVFR to IFR restrictions in fog or low stratus, especially on the coastal plain. LLWS is also possible overnight tonight. Outlook: Tuesday: Afternoon SHRA/TS chances near the US/CAN border. There is uncertainty how far east and south SHRA/TS develop in the afternoon. Tuesday night: Coverage of SHRA decreases. VFR forecast. Wednesday: A cold front passes through the region with SHRA/TS west to east through the day. MVFR possible w/ frontal passage and in showers/storms. Wednesday night: Winds shift NW with VFR behind exiting cold front. Thursday and Thursday night: VFR expected with no sig wx. Friday and Friday night: VFR expected with no sig wx. && .MARINE... High pressure moves over the waters today with relatively light easterly to southeasterly winds. Winds may approach SCA criteria on the coastal waters Tuesday and Wednesday as southerly fetch builds. Winds then become offshore behind a stronger cold front Wed evening. High pressure builds in from the west mid to late week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Ekster/Hargrove  543 FXUS62 KCAE 181333 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 933 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain chances for late this week and this weekend continue although coverage could be lower than blended guidance indicates. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Above normal temperatures likely through mid-week. - 2. Rain chances increase late week and into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Above normal temperatures likely through mid- week. Above normal temperatures likely through Thursday with highs in the low to mid 90s expected and no or very little convective coverage each afternoon. PWAT values will be slightly below to around normal through Wednesday so Heat Index values will not rise to advisory thresholds. However, early season heat can contribute to an increased risk of heat-related illness. Key Message 2: Rain chances increase late week and into this weekend. On average, model guidance shifts high pressure eastward late this week, leading to increasing moisture over the Southeast from Thursday through Memorial Day weekend. PWAT values rise to just above normal for the season. However geopotential heights from the NAEFS are also around normal. This would point to a seasonal setup for scattered afternoon convection, possibly enhanced to our north and west with shortwave energy riding over the ridge. PoPs from blended guidance show values above what are climatologically favored and could be too high given the synoptic set up. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions generally expected. Any restrictions should return to VFR by 14z with southerly winds picking up through the day to around 5 to 7 knots by 15z and closer to 10 knots after 21z. Little chance for any convection on Monday given strengthening upper ridging. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture may result in brief restrictions at the terminals due to low clouds and/or fog each day this week. Rain chances increase towards the end of next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJR AVIATION...23  563 FXUS62 KTAE 181334 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 934 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 934 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected through mid week. There is a high chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without cooling/hydration. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms will return mid to late week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that develop. && .UPDATE... Issued at 934 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no changes are needed. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Upper ridge will remain draped through the southeast US through Tuesday while an upper trough digs southward to off the western Baja coast. The slug of moisture aiding convection development today along I75 will drift west towards the eastern Panhandle and southeast Alabama Monday while drier air (PWATS <1 inch) moves in from the Atlantic. Therefore, rain chances will be favored in our western zones Monday while the remainder of the tri-state area will be mostly dry. Much like today, thunderstorms that develop will be capable of gusty to strong winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Tuesday will continue the dry trend with minimal chances for rainfall. Upper ridge weakens beginning Wednesday as an upper low develops and translates west into the Bahamas. Moisture starts a gradual return Wednesday as well as rain chances on the GCSB. Meanwhile, a cold front will sit between the upper trough out west and the weakening ridge out east which will gradually stall to our north through northern Alabama and Georgia later this week. In response, winds turn more southerly which will be more favorable for development on the GCSB in the afternoon then interactions with the westward moving ECSB late afternoons and evenings. The front gradually weakens this weekend as the upper ridge strengthens once again and the Bahamas upper low gets shunted south. Rain chances gradually increase from 20-40% Thursday to 30-60% by next Sunday. Temperatures are fairly persistent with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the drier air and lower rain chances Tuesday through Thursday, this will be the hottest timeframe through next weekend. There is even a low chance for meeting or exceeding 95F in the Florida Big Bend and heat indices approaching 100F as well in isolated locations. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Light and variable winds this morning. Patchy fog may develop over the ECP and DHN terminals and lift shortly soon after. Winds will be southeasterly, and shift southerly this afternoon for our western terminals. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. There's a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms affecting the ECP and DHN terminals this afternoon and may affect cigs and vsbys. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Light to moderate east to southeast winds will continue through midweek as high pressure ridging remains draped across the Gulf waters. Easterly surges in the overnight hours will cause a slight uptick in winds, perhaps briefly reaching cautionary levels. Ridging weakens later this week as a cold front reaches the Mid South causing winds to become southerly. Chances increase for shower and thunderstorm activity across the Gulf waters next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 High dispersions are expected today across the Suwannee Valley and I- 75 corridor as mixing heights climb to near 7,000 feet with easterly transport winds around 10 mph. Elsewhere, winds will be more southerly to southeasterly, but mixing heights will be lower, yielding good dispersions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in the eastern Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama as the seabreeze develops and pushes inland. A relatively dry period is on tap Tuesday through Thursday before better moisture arrives and rain chances gradually increase into the weekend. Good afternoon dispersions each day towards the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 70 92 70 / 0 0 10 10 Panama City 87 70 87 70 / 10 0 10 0 Dothan 90 67 89 68 / 20 0 10 0 Albany 91 67 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 92 66 92 67 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 94 69 94 69 / 0 0 40 10 Apalachicola 83 73 83 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon through this evening for FLZ112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Young  782 FXHW60 PHFO 181342 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 342 AM HST Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS... An unstable and somewhat wet trade wind pattern will continue through mid-week, with brief downpours possible. During the second half of the week, a strengthening area of high pressure north of the islands will increase stability across the region, producing drier, but windier conditions. && .DISCUSSION... This morning, local satellite and radar imagery shows just a few light scattered showers moving into the islands on moderate easterly trade wind flow. While some areas of the state received significant rainfall totals yesterday, shower intensity and coverage eased area-wide after sunset. With that said, the early morning sounding from Hilo continues to show over two inches of precipitable water, compared to the much drier Lihue sounding. Broad troughing aloft persists over the islands, and with this amount of ample moisture available, expect that a generally wet trade wind pattern will continue for the next couple of days with frequent showers over windward areas, especially for the Big Island. Some showers could produce brief downpours, similar to those that were observed this past weekend at times. Showers will generally favor windward areas during the overnight and morning hours, with scattered leeward showers developing during the afternoons. Additionally, dewpoints will continue to linger in the upper 60s to low 70s, which should make temperatures feel warmer than normal. Increased stability and stronger trade winds are expected by Thursday. Latest global guidance remains in good agreement with a strong high developing far north of the state during the second half of the week, which should result in windy conditions. Winds could potentially reach Wind Advisory levels Thursday into Friday for select areas downstream of terrain. Drier conditions are also expected during this time, but scattered showers embedded within the windy trade wind flow will continue, especially during the night and early morning hours. && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally breezy trades expected for the next couple days. Low cigs and SHRA should primarily impact windward and mauka locations with some limited spillover to leeward areas. MVFR conds possible in heavier SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for Kauai, Oahu, Maui and windward sections of the Big Island. && .MARINE... The pressure gradient back from a surface high centered about 1,400 nautical miles northeast of the islands remains tight enough to support moderate to locally fresh trades the next few days. This anchored high will strengthen and expand past mid week. The resultant tightening gradient will produce fresh to locally strong trades during the later half of the week. A small size, short to medium period north northwest (320-330 degree) bump tonight into early Tuesday will provide an additional foot or two upon north-facing shore surf Tuesday. The arrival of a couple of medium to long period south southwest (200 degree) swells the next few days will maintain seasonable surf along southern facing shores. Strengthening trades later this week will keep short period, elevated wind wave chop alive going into the weekend. Water levels peaking between 2.5 to 3.0 ft MLLW during today's high tides may result in some minor overwash within low lying coastal areas. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Vaughan AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Blood  218 FXAK67 PAJK 181353 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 553 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Onshore flow continues showers through Monday, mainly for the northern and central panhandle - A weak shortwave brings rain back to the northeastern gulf coast Monday night into Tuesday before another system moves into the gulf Wednesday && .SHORT TERM...A decaying front is continuing to move inland Monday morning, bringing widespread rain to the panhandle. Along the northern gulf coast, the front has pushed through with only occasional post frontal showers showing up as of this discussion. This will continue to be the trend through the day Monday, as weak ridging builds in behind the front. Onshore flow will continue though, with showers remaining likely for the northern and central panhandle into Tuesday. No significant changes made to the forecast in the short term aside from lowering winds in some parts of the inner channels to match the weakening front. A weak shortwave in the northern gulf is expected to push into Yakutat and the northeastern gulf coast through Monday evening, which will continue rain chances and overcast skies throughout the northern panhandle. This pattern continues through Tuesday, with another organized band moving into Yakutat preceding the next system for Wednesday. For the southern panhandle, clearing skies could lead to fog development early Tuesday morning impacting marine and air travel through the morning hours. .LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Friday/...The front moving in late Tuesday night is expected to bring widespread moderate rain to the entire panhandle through the day Wednesday before trailing off late Wednesday night. Peak precipitation accumulation is expected to occur between Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon based on the current thinking for timing of the front. There is 80% confidence that Yakutat will receive between 1-1.75 inches, Juneau to receive 0.5-1.25 inches, Sitka to receive 0.6-0.8 inches, and Ketchikan to receive 0.25-0.55 inches of rain in the 24 hour period mentioned. There are no flood risks expected at this time. As the front moves in, winds across the panhandle look to increase to 20-25 mph with gusty conditions and will settle again Thursday morning after the front moves fully through the area. The overall pattern for the rest of the week continues to be unsettled onshore flow. This will bring periods of rain and overcast conditions, mainly focused on the northern panhandle. The southern and part of the central panhandle could see periods of clearing intermixed with light rain showers for the rest of the week. Winds look be mainly calm for the rest of the period as there is no well defined front currently expected. Looking ahead for the Saturday night through Sunday period, ensemble guidance suggests a negatively tilted trough will advance into the Gulf of Alaska. While this system is trending deeper, it is expected to bring relatively benign winds and precipitation, with the primary impacts focused on the southern panhandle and Clarence Strait to Dixon entrance region. Guidance suggests with 90% confidence that any hazards expected with this are low end small craft advisories in the aforementioned zones. && .AVIATION.../through Monday night/...Mainly MVFR flight conditions through Monday night as rain slowly diminishes behind the departing front. Pockets of IFR VIS/CIGs possible through the morning. Some slight improvements with VFR flight conditions possibly developing as winds will become 8-15kt this afternoon. Stronger winds 15-22G25-32kt will develop for PAGY behind the front as the gradient strengthens. Winds will diminish through the night, possibly allowing the return of MVFR VIS/CIGs, especially for PAYA. Any lingering LLWS concerns will diminish through the morning as the front pushes east of SE AK. && .MARINE...A weakening front will continue to lift inland across the SE Alaska panhandle Monday with a weak short wave following Monday evening. Another organized system will move into the gulf late Tuesday into Wednesday. Coastal Waters: As previously forecast, winds have become southwesterly 10-15kts behind the front in the gulf. Additionally, swell has shifted to be consistently southwesterly ranging 7 to 9 ft and should ease to 3 to 5 ft by Monday night. Between the easing winds and swell combined seas in the outer/inner coastal zones are expected to go from 15 to 17 ft to 6 to 8 ft by Monday night. Conditions are not expected to change drastically from Monday night onward. That said, there are a few shortwave disturbances that could boost winds primarily in the near coastal zones. As of this forecast, the majority of the area is expected to remain below gale for much of the week ahead. Inner Channels: As of early Monday morning, the front has pushed into the inner channels and begun lifting into the interior. E-W orientated channels have including Cross Sound have already reported winds shifting westerly, though Icy Strait has split flow as of this discussion. Winds will generally ease over Inner Channels as the front continues to lift inland. The one exception will be Lynn Canal, which will continue to see southerly winds up to 20 kt for most of the day. Looking past Monday, weak shortwaves moving over the area are expected to increase winds over portions of the area, as of right now low end SCA seem to be the most likely but this could change as more higher resolution guidance becomes available for this period. Other than these shortwaves the only thing to note would be some potential fog development overnight early Tuesday due to expected diminishing cloud cover from Frederick Sound southward. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM...AGP/BAS AVIATION...DS MARINE...STJ Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  224 FXUS63 KJKL 181353 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 953 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through Tuesday afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast late Tuesday into Tuesday night, then persist through next weekend. - The switch to a wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings and produces a highly-beneficial, widespread wetting rainfall. && .UPDATE... Issued at 953 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 An upper level ridge was centered near the Outer Banks of NC and extended northwest into the Appalachians and Lower OH Valley. This is resulting in most sunny to sunny skies and warm temperatures for the second half of May. Another mild day is in store with highs averaging 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The record highs at KJKL of 88 (1982/1996) and for KLOZ of 90 (1962) will be approached and perhaps one or both tied today. UPDATE Issued at 659 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 Made minor T/Td hourly updates in the very near term to reflect latest observations and latest trends. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 Seasonably hot and dry weather is expected into Tuesday as the area resides on the western/northwestern periphery of a strong cut-off mid-level high situated over the Carolinas, a narrow westward extension of the Bermuda High. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s both days, with an increase in high clouds Tuesday as a cold front begins to move toward the area. Low-end PoPs are introduced Tuesday afternoon for some areas from the west, but a clear trigger for the marginal instability that is likely to exist at that time is not readily apparent giving the continued warm mid-level temperatures through early evening Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 249 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 The long term forecast period opens on the precipice of a pattern change. A series of shortwave disturbances moving around the northwestern periphery of the previous days' amplified SE CONUS ridging will gradually work to break this ridge down. As this happens, flow in the lower half of the column adopts a more southwesterly orientation. This translates to increased moisture return and increasing sky cover into Tuesday night. A frontal boundary arrives from the northwest on Tuesday night, and its forcing should be sufficient to spark additional showers and storms. The question is - how does the thermodynamic environment look ahead of this feature? Given the boundary's nocturnal arrival in our portion of the Commonwealth, temperatures and instability *should* be at their diurnal cycle minimum. However, the persistence of SW low level flow and the antecedent warmth will leave Tuesday night's surface temperature insulated well above climatological averages. Expect lows to remain above the 60 degree mark, with some of the warmer ridgetops potentially hovering around 70. Depending on the amount of sky cover present around sunset, valley locales could thermally decouple and experience efficient radiational cooling. This could yield a scenario in which upstream convection becomes elevated above a more stable boundary layer in the valleys once it reaches our CWA's western escarpment. In other words, we are on QLCS graveyard watch for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Regardless of the strength of this convection, it will provide some highly beneficial widespread rainfall to eastern Kentucky. There is a 65-75% chance for at least a quarter of an inch of rain in the 24 hour period ending at 8pm Wednesday across the entire forecast area. The greatest chances and the greatest storm total QPF will fall across the Cumberland River Basin, which is also subsequently where some of the most impactful drought is also in place in the state - so any precipitation will be well received. While the boundary has trended a little bit more progressive with this morning's forecast guidance suite and storm total QPF has ticked a bit down, the boundary will struggle to fully push into the ridging in the SE CONUS. It is poised to stall out in the Tennessee Valley by midweek, and thus the southern half of the commonwealth will see repeated rain chances through the end of the period. Given these trends, Wednesday's Marginal (Level 1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook was trimmed down to just the Lake Cumberland region with the afternoon update. The entire Cumberland River Basin remains outlooked in a Marginal ERO for Thursday, as that boundary looks quite stubborn. Widespread, significant flash flooding is still not the most likely forecast solution, but areas where multiple rounds of thunderstorms persist for multiple days will need to be monitored closely as the ground progressively saturates. Again, this will likely be more beneficial than anything for the rain deficit in this region. On the north side of the boundary, post-frontal winds will work to advect a cooler and drier airmass into portions of the area. Northern portions of the forecast area should cool into the upper 70s on Wednesday, and more recent guidance suggests that Wednesday's MaxT grids could actually trend downward in future forecast packages. Temperatures then cool to the 70s area-wide on Thursday. Unfortunately this reset back to cooler weather is short-lived. The same boundary that stalled to our south will then lift back north as a warm front on Friday, leaving much of eastern KY in the warm and unstable sector through the weekend as another surface low passes across the Ohio Valley. In addition to more warm air advection, it will also advect moisture into the region, resulting in heightened rain chances from Friday through Sunday. This second, potentially more active pattern bears watching for agricultural and hydrological interests, though. The LREF Grand Ensemble resolves a 70-90% chance of at least 1 inch of precipitation across the entire CWA by Saturday night, with more expected on Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 VFR conditions will hold through the period. Southwest winds at 6 to 12 kts sustained develop between 13z-16z, with max gusts reaching as high as around 20 kts in the afternoon during peak heating for northern/western sites, before diminishing significantly at all sites toward sunset. Some models develop marginal south-southwesterly LLWS again briefly in the mid to late evening, but with low confidence, and with it appearing to be very transitory if it does occur, will opt to leave this out of TAFs for now. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...JMW/MARCUS AVIATION...CMC  412 FXUS65 KMSO 181359 CCA AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 142 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Frost/freeze concerns remains Tuesday morning. - Northwest flow becomes established for the rest of the week with unsettled but mild conditions. Clear skies are allowing temperatures to drop overnight. Expect widespread temperatures in the 20s and low 30s this morning and while there will be moderation Tuesday, expect another cold start. For the kids, a jacket in the morning will be carried home during the afternoon. Vulnerable vegetation will need to be taken care of over the next two mornings. Afternoon heating today and potentially again tomorrow will allow for isolated showers, production of graupel, and potentially a lightning strike or two. We will remain in northwest flow with a high pressure ridge just off the west coast. In the simplest terms, this week will see a warming trend and by Friday temperatures will be a few degrees above normal. A few disturbances will slide south along the eastern part of ridge producing periods of showers. Currently, the models are not overly excited, however, Wednesday evening into Thursday could be a period of more organized shower activity, especially along the continental Divide. && .AVIATION...Cold mornings may allow for fog in the vicinity of terminals, especially KBTM and KGPI. Otherwise, the atmosphere will remain unstable but dry, showers may develop in the vicinity of KGPI between 18/2100 and 19/0000z. Thunderstorms are very low probability, 20% or less, however a lightning strike is possible in the Flathead Valley and surrounding mountains. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region. Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys. ID...None. && $$