722 FXUS62 KJAX 181402 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1002 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today. - Areas of Locally Dense Fog Across Southeast GA Early on Tuesday Morning. - Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms at Inland Locations from Tuesday through Thursday. - Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Area- Wide from Friday through Memorial Day. - Historic Drought Conditions Continue Across Much of Our Region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today. Today: Drier air mass with PWAT's around an inch or less will push into the local area on the south side of high pressure ridge axis. This will lead to much lower rainfall coverage with only isolated showers across inland areas this afternoon, mainly along the I-75 corridor. Max temps will push into the lower 90s well inland, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and middle 80s at Atlantic beaches. Breezy East to Southeast winds will continue to develop behind the inland moving East coast sea breeze with sustained winds around 15 mph with frequent gusts to 20-25 mph at times through the afternoon hours. This wind regime will continue a high risk of rip currents at local beaches. Tonight: Very quick end to any isolated showers over inland areas this evening, but the long fetch of East winds over the Atlantic will start to trigger some widely scattered showers over the Atlantic waters offshore tonight, some of which could push onshore during the predawn hours, but overall rainfall chances remain 20% or less for land-based areas. The increased low level moisture will help increase fog chances over inland areas of SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL towards sunrise Tuesday morning. Min temps will be close to normal values with lower/middle 60s inland SE GA and mid/upper 60s inland NE FL and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast in the onshore flow. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... - Daily thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor. - Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely into midweek. Onshore flow persists through midweek as High pressure remains over the Bermuda region. Chances of precipitation return on Tuesday and Wednesday as moist air moves in from the Atlantic, bringing PWATs upwards to 1.5" each afternoon. With the inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze, activity will be focused over inland locations towards the I-75 corridor and north central FL each afternoon. The onshore flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up from 15mph to 20mph possible each afternoon. Daytime highs each afternoon will be in the lower 90s over inland locations prior to the onset of any showers or storms, while coastal locations will have highs in the mid to upper 80s. During the overnight hours Lows will be in the 70s at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily afternoon thunderstorms; best coverage and strongest storms expected along the sea breeze mergers - Increasing chances of showers and storms this upcoming weekend. A frontal boundary pushes towards the SE US after midweek, but is currently expected to begin to slow and stall north of the area by the end of the week. As such, Thursday will continue the pattern from earlier in the week. Onshore flow from the Atlantic, with inland showers and storms as the sea breeze pushes inland. Looking towards the weekend, the influence of the stalling front could be enough to push the high pressure eastward. Which would allow for both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze to push inland during the weekend. With PWATs expected in the 1.5" to 1.75" range by the weekend, we could see higher chances and wider coverage of showers and storms as the sea breezes push inland and meet towards central locations of the area. Warm temperatures are expected during the forecast period as highs will sit in the lower to mid 90s across inland locations and in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Overnight Lows will be in the 70s area-wide. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 06Z Tuesday. Periods of IFR visibilities are expected after 06Z at VQQ. Marine cumulus and stratocumulus are expected to push onshore after 08Z along the northeast FL coast, and confidence was high enough to indicate prevailing MVFR ceilings around 2,500 feet at SGJ after 10Z. A brief shower cannot be ruled out at SGJ around sunrise on Tuesday. East-southeasterly surface winds sustained around 10 knots this morning at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals will become easterly and are forecast increase to around 15 knots and gusty after 17Z. East-southeasterly surface winds elsewhere will become sustained at 5-10 knots by 14Z, followed by winds shifting to easterly and increasing to 10-15 knots and gusty after 19Z. Surface wind speeds will then diminish to around 10 knots at the coastal terminals and 5-10 knots inland by 02Z Tuesday. && .MARINE... The Bermuda ridge will dominate through the week with a ridge axis extending just north of the local waters. This pattern will bring persistent east to southeast winds, with local wind surges each afternoon and evening trailing the inland progressing east coast sea breeze. Morning and midday showers will shift inland by mid-afternoon with generally clearing skies across the local waters late afternoon into the evening. Rip Currents: A high rip current risk continues for all local beaches early this week due to persistent onshore winds. An elevated risk will continue through the end of the week due to prevailing ESE winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersions Into Midweek. The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon heading into midweek. Patchy high dispersions will be present over inland locations Today and Tuesday. Moisture will continue to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of particular concern this week, with slightly lower values inland Today, however they will be above critical values. Moisture will steadily increases each day, with thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening, mainly for inland northeast FL through Thursday, then area-wide Friday through next weekend. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms each day Tuesday onward. Areas of locally dense fog possible early Tuesday morning for inland locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 64 90 64 / 0 0 20 0 SSI 82 72 84 73 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 87 68 88 69 / 0 10 0 0 SGJ 83 73 87 73 / 10 10 10 0 GNV 92 69 92 69 / 10 0 30 0 OCF 92 70 91 70 / 10 10 30 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...None. && $$  039 FXUS61 KLWX 181409 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1009 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Expanded today's convective threat further east along I-70, otherwise no major changes were made to the forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Near record warmth with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over the mountains today and Tuesday. 2) A strong cold front brings widespread rain and thunderstorm chances on Wednesday, followed by much cooler and showery conditions toward the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Near record warmth with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over the mountains today and Tuesday. It's a very hot start to the workweek as upper level ridging strengthens over the region. As early morning inversions have mixed out, temperatures have begun to climb rather quickly with 10 AM observations largely in the upper 70s to low 80s. Expect further warming into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. This will mark one of the hottest days so far this season, although even hotter conditions can be expected Tuesday as the upper level ridge peaks over the region. Skies will trend mostly sunny to partly cloudy today with mostly dry conditions expected. The one exception will be over the Potomac Highlands and Alleghenies where showers and thunderstorms look to bubble later this afternoon into the early evening hours (2-8pm). Storm coverage will be isolated in nature given the lack of a direct lifting mechanism. Hi-res CAMS show good continuity in regards to convective development that will be fueled by ample instability, steep low level lapse rates, and marginal shear. MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg, DCAPE values of 1000-1300 J/kg, and enough mid-level flow (20-30 kt) will provide some organization to any cold pools that develop. This supports forecast soundings with inverted V profiles indicative of damaging winds which aligns with several hi - res model members suggesting gusts of 40-50 kts on any storms that form. The corridor of concern appears to be from Petersburg/Elkins, WV northeastward toward Cumberland, MD/Martinsburg, WV. Any thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish through the evening hours with dry conditions and areas of patchy fog. Don't expect too much relief from the heat tonight with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Even hotter conditions can be expected Tuesday with highs well into the low to mid 90s. A few upper 90s cannot be ruled out across the urban corridor and down to the south across the central VA Piedmont given the strengthened ridge peaking overhead and dry air at the surface. An isolated shower or t-storm remains possible over the mountains, although most will see nothing given the heightened ridge squashing anything overhead. Temperatures cool slightly Wednesday with increasing cloud cover as a cold front approaches the region. Highs will still push into the 90s along with increasing humidity. Even with that said, the combination of heat and humidity will remain below heat headline criteria through the period. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front brings widespread rain and thunderstorm chances on Wednesday, followed by much cooler and showery conditions toward the end of the week. A strong area of low pressure moves through the Northeast on Wednesday, with a cold front extending down the East Coast that will bring widespread rain and thunderstorm chances to the Mid-Atlantic in the afternoon/evening. While the center low will be well north of us, the timing of the front aligning with the diurnal cycle and the high temperatures seen at the start of the week could still contribute towards some thunderstorm development in the region. Potential severity at this time still ranges widely--NCAR'sAI NWP Convective Hazards Forecast currently has our region outlined in its 45%-60% probability for severe weather to occur, while CSU's medium- range probabilities ranks the severe threat much lower. Regardless, this front will likely result in widespread showers at a minimum as well as a sharp drop in temperatures seen later in the week. Highs on Thursday will range in the upper 60s and low 70s, a marked shift from the mid-90s expected earlier in the week. Lingering rain showers may still be moving out of the area by Thursday morning, while a meandering front to the south could bring a few additional rain showers on Friday. Temperatures begin to increase again going into the weekend, as a warm front meanders through the region Saturday. Upper-level zonal flow slow transitions to UL ridging by the end of the weekend, indicating a potential decrease in rain chances going into the start of next week. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue across the terminals through Wednesday morning as high pressure strengthens offshore. South/southwesterly winds return today and Tuesday gusting between 15 to 20 kts during the afternoon and evening hours. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will occur each afternoon although coverage will be spotty in nature mainly at terminals along and west of a line from KMRB, KHGR, KFDK, to KEKN. Elsewhere confidence remains low given the lack of a lifting mechanism and strengthening high pressure overhead. Sub-VFR restrictions return at times Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front brings widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. Winds will remain out of the southwest ahead of the front before shifting back to the north and northwest Thursday. Some low CIGS may hang on through Wednesday night before lifting Thursday as the front sits south of the region. Periodic rain showers moving through the region on Thursday and Friday could bring additional sub- VFR periods at terminals towards the end of the week. Wind gusts could reach 15-20 knots on Thursday before gradually decreasing. Northerly winds shift east-southeast by Friday night. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA level winds continue through midday with SCA southerly channeling over the bay and lower tidal Potomac this afternoon and evening. Winds will drop briefly back below sub-SCA levels tonight before additional SCAs are needed due to channeling Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest with gusts up to 20 kts today and Tuesday. Winds may near low-end SCA levels in south to southwesterly flow on Wednesday, and then again in northerly flow on Thursday. SMWs appear possible Wednesday into Wednesday night as thunderstorms move over the waters. Small Craft Advisories are likely during the day Thursday & Friday as winds gust up to 15-20 knots, growing calmer overnight. Winds drop below SCA thresholds Friday night. Northerly winds shift easterly by Friday morning. && .CLIMATE... Here are some daily temperature records during the May 18-20, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***MONDAY, MAY 18TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1877) 72F (2015) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 91F (1987)! 68F (2015)! Baltimore (BWI) 97F (1962) 70F (2017) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 75F (2017) Martinsburg (MRB) 96F (1911) 66F (2015)! Charlottesville (CHO) 95F (1962)+ 73F (1911) Annapolis (NAK) 95F (1962)+ 69F(1953)+! Hagerstown (HGR) 93F (1962) 71F (2017) ***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1997)+ 72F (2015)! Washington-Dulles (IAD) 92F (1997)+! 66F (2017)+! Baltimore (BWI) 98F (1962) 75F (1877) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F (1962) 78F (1962) Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1911) 69F (1996)! Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (1962) 72F (1997) Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1962) 71F (1911)! Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 69F (2017)+! ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019) Baltimore (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+ Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+ Martinsburg (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998) Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996) Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898) Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531>534-537>543. && $$ DISCUSSION...BRO/KJP/EST/SRT AVIATION...BRO/EST/SRT MARINE...EST/SRT  589 FXUS63 KIND 181414 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1014 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon and evening with damaging winds, large hail and localized flooding - Highs in the 80s today and Tuesday - Storms will end Wednesday as the front shifts south, but unsettled weather likely returns late this week into the holiday weekend && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1014 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A line of thunderstorms continues to march east into central Illinois this morning, and scattered convection is developing ahead of this line with an area of additional lift. Temperatures across central Indiana were already in the upper 70s with dewpoints generally in the lower to middle 60s. Upper 60s dewpoints were in the far southwest and farther upstream to the southwest. Based on latest radar trends, sped up arrival of PoPs this morning into early afternoon. The newer convection leads to some increased uncertainty on how convection evolves this afternoon. Instability will continue to build, especially central and east before the clouds from upstream convection limit heating. The initial convection will be able to tap into this instability, but upstream convection may have less to work with. Either way, strong to severe convection remains a threat into the afternoon so will continue to mention. High temperatures may be optimistic west but for now will make no changes and continue to monitor. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 An amplified upper level pattern for early this week anchored by a deep trough over the northern Rockies and strong ridging over the eastern part of the country. The ridge will gradually flatten as the trough shifts east enabling a strong cold front to track into the region by late Tuesday. With a warm and unstable airmass ahead of the front...multiple opportunities for thunderstorms will exist through Tuesday night with severe weather possible this afternoon and potentially again Tuesday afternoon and evening as the cold front moves through. High pressure will bring a briefly drier period midweek before unsettled conditions return late week in response to the front lifting back north into the region. Today through Tuesday Night Quiet early morning across central Indiana with clear skies. 06Z temperatures remained warm in the upper 60s and lower 70s in many locations. An active 48 hours is anticipated through Tuesday night with multiple opportunities for rain and thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather in advance of a cold front currently over the Plains and poised to move across the area by Tuesday evening. An ongoing area of convection continues early this morning from the upper Midwest southwest into central Kansas. Much of the line has weakened from Sunday evening with the exception of the southern part of the line over the Missouri Valley where instability and BL shear remain more than sufficient to maintain convective intensity. This portion of the line is likely to remain strong for the remainder of the night with an in creasing flood risk as it sags into south central Missouri and becomes increasingly parallel to the mean flow. The weaker portion of the line over Iowa is of greater interest to the forecast area as its remnants will enable the old outflow boundary to drift into central Illinois by mid to late morning with convection becoming reinvigorated as the outflow interacts with a rapidly destabilizing airmass over the region. Convection will continue to grow upscale as it tracks into the Wabash Valley early this afternoon then presses southeast across the forecast area. Model soundings show steepening mid level lapse rates with SBCAPEs 2000-2500 j/kg and sufficient shear that would support damaging winds...especially if the cold pool can mature. Furthermore...DCAPE values approach 1000 j/kg immediately ahead of the convective line which also lends credence to the damaging wind risk. Abundant CAPE is present within the hail growth zone as well and stronger cells will carry a large hail threat as well. Timing of the greatest risk for severe weather will be between 17Z and 22Z. Storms will weaken as they track towards the Indiana-Ohio border by early evening as it moves away from the deeper instability and stronger low level winds. An axis of PWATs between 1.75 and 2 inches will support torrential rainfall and flooding. The greatest concern will be across the southwest half of the forecast area as training cells become a factor with the line curving back to the west along the instability axis. Showers and embedded storms will continue into the evening but with the airmass worked over from the afternoon convection...the general trend will be towards rain diminishing as weak ridging aloft reestablishes for the overnight. Tuesday has become a bit more uncertain with respect to convective evolution and the potential for another round of severe weather as the model suite has sped up the arrival of the front into the forecast area in the afternoon. More impactful though will be the possibility of convective cloud debris by Tuesday morning from an MCS over the Missouri Valley Monday night. That will stunt diurnal heating and available instability and the earlier arrival of the front during the afternoon presents the possibility that the greater risk for more robust convection will focus across the southeast half of the forecast area and points east late afternoon into the evening. That being said...model soundings do continue to highlight mid level lapse rates up to 7.5C/km with a deep layer of dry adiabatic flow across the region combined with sufficient levels of BL shear to support scattered stronger convection at a minimum with the available instability. Damaging winds will again be the primary risk from these storms with large hail serving as a secondary threat. The cold front will become more parallel to the flow aloft on Tuesday night which will keep showers and thunderstorms across much of the forecast area into Tuesday night...gradually ending from the north overnight as drier air advects into the region. Highs will be tricky both today and Tuesday...dependent on convective timing this afternoon and cloud debris Tuesday. Nudged highs both days down from the model blend with low to mid 80s for much of the forecast area. Wednesday through Sunday Convection may still be ongoing across the southeast half of the forecast area Wednesday morning but will gradually end through the morning as the front shifts south of the region and high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Confidence continues to grow on the boundary becomes quasi stationary across the Tennessee Valley into Thursday before lifting back north into the Ohio Valley Friday as the high passing to the north moves east into New England. The ensemble guidance has gotten more aggressive in this solution with scattered to numerous showers and storms Friday and Friday night as the front lifts north through the forecast area. Lower confidence remains for the weekend as the return of a warmer and more unstable airmass south of the front will support at least a daily threat for scattered convection but the lack of much agreement in the model ensemble makes employing detail in the timing and coverage of rainfall difficult through much of the holiday weekend. After temperatures mainly in the upper 60s and low 70s Wednesday and Thursday...highs will climb back into the upper 70s and lower 80s Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 609 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Impacts: - A line of severe thunderstorms expected to impact all terminals this afternoon with showers continuing into the evening - Peak wind gusts this afternoon at 25 to 30kts Discussion: Mainly sunny skies are expected to start but expect an increase in mid and high level clouds as the morning progresses associated with the remnant convective cluster extending from western Illinois back into Missouri. Storms should continue to weaken over the next few hours but the leftover outflow boundary is likely to serve as a focal point for renewed convective development by late morning across central and eastern Illinois as it interacts with an increasing unstable airmass. The line will move into the Wabash Valley early this afternoon then track across the terminals during the 17 to 22Z timeframe. Damaging winds will be a possibility along the leading edge of the convective line Restrictions to IFR and lower will accompany the line as well. Scattered convection should linger into the evening before gradually diminishing in coverage. Windy conditions will develop quickly after daybreak with peak gusts at 25 to 30kts prior to storms arriving in the afternoon. Gusts should drop off by early evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...50 AVIATION...Ryan DISCUSSION...Ryan  257 FXUS66 KLOX 181432 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 732 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS...18/205 AM. Warmer temperatures are expected this week with some locally breezy Santa Ana winds this morning. The warmest day will be Wednesday with slow cooling the rest of the week along with a return of night and morning low clouds and fog. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...18/718 AM. ***UPDATE*** The late season Santa Ana Wind event has materialized across the San Gabriel Mountains, with gusts in the 25-40 mph range, and a few of the hot spots have reached 50+ mph. Winds are beginning to pick up across the Santa Susannas, with gusts 30+ mph. There still exists quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the Santa Anas through the valleys and down to the Oxnard Plain today. The very deep marine layer will battle the offshore flow push, and northeast winds may not surface at very noticeable speeds, especially at the coasts. There is a concern regarding fire weather today across the San Gabriels and Santa Susanas due to the offshore winds following a long stretch of warm and very dry conditions. Elevated to brief critical conditions will continue through this afternoon. Confidence is high in a general warming and drying trend today due to offshore influences and weak onshore gradients this afternoon. This trend will continue through Wednesday, with weak northeast winds expected over the mountains tomorrow. ***From Previous Discussion*** The marine layer is about 5000 ft deep and marine layer stratus covers much of the csts and vlys of LA and VTA counties. The low clouds should dissipate earlier than normal as the pressure grads shift offshore. There will be a 10 mb offshore trend in the E/W direction and this will help develop a Santa Ana wind event despite not much in the way of actual offshore flow or upper support. Most of the passes and canyons will have gusty NE winds but the advisory level gusts will be confined to the mtns. Almost all of the csts and vlys will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming today with max temps across the csts and vlys in the 70s and lower 80s. There will be weaker offshore flow on Tuesday but it will hinder any attempt of the marine layer to reform with only the Long Beach area vulnerable to morning low clouds. Any canyon winds that do develop in the morning will be well under advisory criteria. The warming trend will continue with 1 to 3 degrees of warming expected across the csts; 3 to 6 degrees in he vlys and 5 to 8 further inland. The inland areas greater warming trend is due to the lack of cool air advection that will occur today. The max temps across the csts/vlys will be 4 to 8 degrees above normal. Wednesday should be a sunny day with little or no marine layer stratus in the morning. It will be the warmest day for the csts and vlys as max temps there will warm another 1 to 3 degrees. Look for mid 70s to lower 80s across the csts and 80s in the vlys. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...18/205 AM. Weak upper level flow will be atop of Srn CA for the xtnd period. There will be few if any weather concerns during the period. At the sfc there will be increasing onshore flow each day. By the weekend there will be moderate to strong onshore flow. The marine layer clouds will also increase in coverage and duration every day. By the weekend there will be a strong enough onshore push to the W that will generate gusty near advisory level gusts in the western Antelope Vly and foothills. The increase in onshore flow and marine layer coupled with slowly falling hgts will bring about a 4 day cooling trend. Friday will have the most noticeable cooling of 4 to 6 degrees. By Sunday max temps will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the csts and upper 70s and lower 80s in the vlys. These max temps are 1 to 3 degrees blo normal. && .AVIATION...18/0903Z. At 0835Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 5000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 6300 ft with a temperature of 11 C. Good confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KCMA, KPMD and KWJF. Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs as VFR conds could come as early as 12Z depending on the strength of the Santa Ana winds. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will vary between 025 and 040. SCT conds could arrive as early as 14Z. There is a 30 percent chc of an 8 kt east wind component 11Z to 15Z. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will vary between 025 and 040. SCT conds could arrive as early as 14Z. && .MARINE...18/729 AM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will linger through tonight. For Tuesday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Seas may linger near 10 ft across the waters beyond 5NM from shore through this morning. From this afternoon through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 88-375>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/BL AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...LP/MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  174 FXUS63 KGRR 181456 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1056 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk for Severe Storms Today - Slight Risk for Severe Storms on Tuesday - Drier and cooler mid to late week && .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Updated the POPs/Weather grids to better pin down timing of the line of convection expected to come through this afternoon with the greatest coverage and chances for severe winds/hail across roughly the southern half of the forecast area. Also lowered POPs for tonight as we expect a lull in the convection before more storms arrive Tuesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Slight Risk for Severe Storms Today The storm prediction center has placed Southwest Lower Michigan in a slight risk for severe weather today. Clouds and showers will try to press in from the west this morning which will decrease somewhat how much we can destabilize. 500mb flow will be weakening as we move through the day as well which is another negative factor with regard to severe weather chances. What we are watching though is the chance that the current activity redevelops or regenerates over our area after about noon (this is seen in the HREF). We feel that between roughly 100pm and 700pm there is chance for severe weather, especially south and east of a line from Whitehall to Clare (so the bulk of the area). An item of note in the HREF is the 850mb low level jet ramps up during the afternoon to 40-45 knots. The LLJ increase is seen most for areas near and southeast of GRR including AZO, LAN and JXN. These areas stand the best chance at some damaging winds this afternoon and evening. The Nadocast machine learning website also sees wind as our biggest threat today over our southeast half of the forecast area. There is a chance for some scattered storms tonight, but nothing that looks widespread. - Slight Risk for Severe Storms on Tuesday Another slight risk for severe storms is in place for Tuesday over the southeast CWA. The setup is similar in that decaying showers and storms will move in during the morning with a threat of redevelopment over our area in the afternoon. Tomorrow's threat though looks more confined to the southeast CWA, essentially a smaller threat area including AZO, LAN and JXN. Today we have some threat outside of those areas, but tomorrow (Tuesday) the best chances may very much be confined to those areas. Deep layer shear on Monday is 25-35 knots and Tuesday that increases to 30-40 knots. So some storm organization is possible especially with Tuesday's threat. Again though, the morning clouds and showers may dampen our threat a bit. - Drier and cooler mid to late week The cold front will sweep through the forecast area Tuesday evening. Much drier air will invade from the north with PWAT values plummeting from 1.7 inches Tuesday morning which is off the chart for this time of year to less than 0.5 inches on Wednesday. It will be noticeably cooler with highs in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday night we are likely looking at frost across Central Lower Michigan. Another systems looks to bring some rain out towards Friday, but the models have had difficulty coming to a consensus. The trend though looks to be towards rain on Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 647 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Very little change in thinking from overnight. We are expecting a broken line of showers and thunderstorms to move into Western Lower Michigan between 14z and 17z. These will largely be in a weak state. Re-intensification will take place around 17z however with a line of showers and storms then expected to push eastward through the TAF sites. Have VCTS in the TAFs now, but we expect at least scattered activity to affect the TAF sites between 17z and 23z. All sites will largely stay VFR today outside of some brief reductions in visibility and ceiling associated with a storm affecting any one TAF site. Winds will ramp up considerably in the next hour or two (or by 13z to 14z), with SSW winds from 190-210 running at 15-30 knots much of the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 We have extended the Small Craft Advisory both in time and areal extent. The SCA now runs through Tuesday for all zone. The southern two zones, south of Holland, begin tonight. Strong southerly winds will continue both today and Tuesday as we remain east of the cold front the bulk of that time. South winds of 15 to 25 knots look common with waves of 3 to 6 feet. The SCA may need to be extended into Tuesday night for a period of stronger northwest winds behind the cold frontal passage. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ844- 845. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ846>849. && $$ UPDATE...Ostuno DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Duke