069 FXUS62 KRAH 181704 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 104 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Updated the aviation discussion to reflect the 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 120 AM Monday... 1) Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. 2) Increasingly unsettled starting Wed night, with highest rain chances expected to be Thu. Low confidence in high temps Thu and Fri. && .DISCUSSION... As of 120 AM Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. Still anticipate multiple days of anomalously hot temperatures. Mid- upper level troughing from Saskatchewan/Manitoba down through the N Plains and Rockies will ensure maintenance of strong ridging over and off the Southeast coast through midweek (although this is complicated by a weak but persistent upper low NW of the Bahamas). The LREF continues to show 500 mb heights over NC reaching the 95th- 99th percentile into Wed. Meanwhile, at the surface, Bermuda high pressure continues to extend westward across NC, keeping low level moisture return limited, with deep mixing each day and minimal cloudiness overall. Multi-model low level thicknesses continue to be around 20 m above normal today through Wed, supporting highs from around 90 to the mid 90s given high insolation. Early-day dewpoints in the 60s are likely to mix out and drop into the 50s during the hottest parts of each day, which should keep heat index values from rising into the triple digits. However, this kind of early-season heat can still be unexpectedly dangerous, as people have not yet become acclimated to the hot weather. The daily experimental Heat Risk is expected to peak at Moderate (level 2 of 4) today through Wed, indicating that this kind of heat is quite unusual for this time of year and has historically led to high levels of heat illness, with sensitive individuals and those without adequate cooling particularly vulnerable. And with just a modest breeze and lots of sunshine each day, the WBGT index will also be elevated, so spending time in the shade is encouraged, especially for those working or exercising outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasingly unsettled starting Wed night, with highest rain chances expected to be Thu. Low confidence in high temps Thu and Fri. Confidence is high that the southern Canada portion of the mid-upper level trough will shift E over Ontario/Quebec and far E Canada Tue through Thu, allowing a cool surface high to spread across the N Great Lakes and St Lawrence Valley, reinforced by confluent flow aloft over the Northeast, which will help push a backdoor front southward into NC Thu. Precisely when this front arrives will drive both Thu high temps and precip chances. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF have trended toward a slightly slower arrival in their last few runs and are a bit slower than the latest LREF mean, indicating that at least our southern areas will likely stay in the warm sector longer, suggesting highs in the low 90s. Northern areas, especially near the VA border, have the largest temp spread among deterministic models and ensemble members, including the NBM's 15-20 degree 25th- 75th percentile spread for highs at Roxboro. Expect highs in the lower to upper 80s N of Hwy 64, but confidence in temps at any particular location is low. By Fri morning, the front is expected to settle across the S Piedmont and S Sandhills through the S/E Coastal Plain as the surface high center shifts ESE over the Northeast states, setting up a short-lived cold-air damming scenario, with stability reinforced by overrunning flow (albeit shallow) atop the wedging ridge. Highs NW of Hwy 1 are likely to be no warmer than the 70s, with some upper 60s for highs expected in the far N and NW Piedmont, while the far SE CWA shouldreach the low 80s. The greatest uncertainty with Fri high temps, however, will be through the heart of the CWA, including in the Triangle, as temps will depend on where the wedge boundary sets up. This high to our N and NE will be transitory, and as such we should see this wedge dissolve by Sat, leading to rebounding temps back to near to above normal values by the weekend as mid-upper ridging builds back over the Carolinas. Regarding pops, the highest rain chances look to be with and just behind the front, peaking Thu afternoon and night with an uptick in moist upglide, especially over the NW CWA within the deepest overrunning flow. Overall, the chance for showers and isolated to scattered storms will be above climatology Thu through the upcoming weekend, as our 925-850 mb flow strengthens from the SE and S, drawing in both Gulf and Atlantic moisture while weak perturbations ride within the SW flow from N Mexico and the TX Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. Coverage should be highest overall from the NW Piedmont to our W, where PW is expected to be highest within low level confluent flow and beneath weak DPVA and minor jet streaks to force ascent. Isolated pockets of heavy rain can't be ruled out, although generally speaking, these high pops are good news for our drought- ravaged region. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM Monday... Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hr TAF period. Scattered fair weather cu with bases around 5-7 kft will continue across the forecast area until dispersing shortly before sunset. Enhanced moisture at the surface is expected to lift north from Coastal Carolinas to produce another round of low-stratus and fog, but forecast confidence on reaching any central NC terminals is low. Outlook: Threat for morning low-stratus and mist will again be possible Wed and Thurs morning within this persistence pattern. Showers and storms will be possible as early as Wed evening around INT/GSO, but more likely Thurs surrounding a backdoor cold frontal passage and breezy northwest winds. Brief classical-CAD will likely bring sub-VFR cigs to all terminals behind the fropa that will likely persist into Fri, especially in the typical CAD regime at INT/GSO and potentially RDU. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 18: KGSO: 95/1911 KRDU: 95/1906 KFAY: 96/1911 May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022 May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 18: KGSO: 70/2015 KRDU: 72/1896 KFAY: 71/2018 May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022 KFAY: 75/1930 May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hartfield AVIATION...AS CLIMATE...RAH  104 FXUS64 KMAF 181705 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1205 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1203 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through Tuesday. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame. - Critical fire weather conditions expected for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. - Rain and storm chances increase (40-80% chances) by the middle to latter part of the week. We will be monitoring a few strong to severe storms each day. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns over locations east of the Pecos River Wednesday into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Another hot and windy day is expected across the region, particularly over southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas. Antecedent dry conditions combined with the dry air will make for critical fire weather conditions. More information on that can be found below in the fire weather discussion. Many locations will reach into the mid to upper 90s with a number of spots near the century mark. Winds will decay by tonight, but temperatures will only fall into the 60s and 70s. A cold front approaches the region by Tuesday morning and slowly stalls near the Pecos River Valley. The front and present dryline combine to increase storm chances across the eastern portions of the CWA. A few strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Depending on the timing and strength of the front, temperatures will be a touch cooler for most compared to today, though will still reach into the low to mid 90s. Highs in the 100s will be seen along the Rio Grande. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday night and into Wednesday sees an upper level disturbance move across from the west. This combined with the dryline moved further west will lead to higher rain chances across most of the region for Wednesday and into Thursday. Strong to severe storms will be possible on both days, but it remains to be seen what hazards these storms will contain and just how much rain will fall and where. Below normal temperatures will take hold from Wednesday through at least Saturday as easterly flow and a favorable upper level environment keep temperatures on the cool side for mid to late May. Low (10-20%) rain chances hold on from Friday and into the weekend particularly across the Davis Mountains and eastern portions of the CWA. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions forecast throughout the TAF period. Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots at terminals from beginning of the period, with winds decreasing after 23Z-01Z. Winds shift to southeast for terminals on Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau 00Z- 04Z this evening, and for terminals on the Upper Trans Pecos 05Z-08Z tonight. Winds shift back to westerly thereafter, then backing to northerly as a cold front develops from northeast to southwest from 14Z into end of the period Tuesday morning. From Tuesday morning into early afternoon, there is a low to medium (25% to 40%) chance of showers/storms with brief MVFR or lower conditions possible at terminals on the northeast Permian Basin. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Have expanded the inherited Red Flag Warning to include most of Culberson County as well as Andrews County. Well above normal temperatures, exceedingly dry conditions (both a lack of rainfall and critically low min RHs), and breezy winds will make for critical fire weather conditions across southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas this afternoon. An upper level low moving into the Rockies will provide the increasing southwesterly winds that not only aide in fire spread, but can also be attributed to the expected above normal temperatures today. Beyond today, critically low relative humidities return on Tuesday, but winds will be much lighter. The nearby dryline sharpens on Wednesday and is forced back towards the western edge of the CWA bringing strong moisture return and a chance for wetting rains for Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 71 90 61 79 / 10 30 40 50 Carlsbad 63 94 61 84 / 0 0 10 50 Dryden 73 97 68 88 / 0 30 20 40 Fort Stockton 67 98 64 88 / 0 10 20 40 Guadalupe Pass 61 85 61 80 / 0 0 0 30 Hobbs 59 91 57 76 / 0 0 10 70 Marfa 54 92 53 88 / 0 0 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 69 93 62 80 / 0 10 30 60 Odessa 69 93 63 80 / 0 10 30 60 Wink 63 96 63 84 / 0 0 0 50 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...94  144 FXUS64 KLZK 181706 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1206 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 -Above normal temperatures and high humidity levels the next few days. -Some potential for severe thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday. -Daily rain chances will be in the forecast through the end of the period. -Some locally heavy rainfall is possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Summer-like conditions are in place across the state early this morning as 06z observations include temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s F and Td values in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. This humid airmass will linger for the next couple of days as sfc riding remains to the east of the area and H500 longwave troughing persists across the western US. This will provide steady SW flow throughout much of the atmospheric column. For today, a small piece of energy will traverse the state aloft and could provide for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout the day. Overall coverage is expected to remain limited, but some early morning CAMs show a flourish of activity across the northern half of the state between 12-18z. Otherwise, not much concern for widespread hazardous weather today. That won't be the case to the northwest of the state where widespread strong to severe storms may develop later today. This activity would be focused along a nearly stationary cold front situated from the OK/TX panhandles northeastward to the Great Lakes. As storms merge overnight they will begin to move southeast toward the state as the cold front makes similar progress. This activity is expected to move into Arkansas during the early morning hours Tuesday in a weakened state. Through the afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday there could be some reinvigeration of this activity. The overall severe threat will be determined by how widespread the early morning activity lasts and how far it progresses throughout the day. While instability and mid-level lapse rates look favorable for a severe threat Tuesday afternoon, shear values remain limited during this timeframe. Will begin to see the above normal temperatures relax a bit by Wednesday across the state as the sfc cold front moves southeast. The flow aloft will remain out of the SW and disturbances will continue to move along it. This will provide nearly daily chances for precip across parts of the state. This pattern looks to be locked in through at least the upcoming weekend. There will be some localized concern for heavy rainfall at times across the state the next few days as PW values are expected to be in the 1.5-2.0 inch range. But, given the recent short and long term rainfall deficits in place across the area, FFG values remain substantial. This will limit any major flash flood concerns for the time being. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The start of the TAF forecast period early Monday afternoon will be VFR over most of the forecast area as a cold front will approach the northern, western, and central terminals later in the period during the morning hours on Tuesday in which a complex of storms are expected to enter the state lowering VSBY and CIGS at those terminals to MVFR flight category. Surface winds will gust in excess of 25 knots across all sites for most of the period. Low level wind shear will be present at the sites of KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, KADF, and KLIT from early Tuesday morning into later Tuesday morning. Expect flight category to worsen across the state with the front moving into the state during the day on Tuesday out past this forecast period as CIGS and VSBY will likely lower to MVFR or IFR further into the day on Tuesday.&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 73 86 65 74 / 10 70 80 70 Camden AR 72 90 67 81 / 10 80 60 80 Harrison AR 71 83 60 69 / 10 90 90 50 Hot Springs AR 73 85 66 78 / 10 90 70 80 Little Rock AR 71 87 66 77 / 10 70 80 80 Monticello AR 73 89 68 81 / 10 60 80 90 Mount Ida AR 74 83 67 77 / 10 90 70 80 Mountain Home AR 71 83 61 69 / 10 90 90 50 Newport AR 72 89 66 77 / 10 60 80 70 Pine Bluff AR 73 89 68 80 / 10 70 70 90 Russellville AR 72 84 66 77 / 10 90 80 70 Searcy AR 70 87 64 77 / 10 70 70 80 Stuttgart AR 73 89 68 79 / 10 70 70 90 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74  218 FXUS64 KOUN 181707 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - There is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms from this afternoon through Tuesday. - Critical fire weather conditions are possible for far western Oklahoma into western north Texas this afternoon - Very warm temperatures are expected today with cooler weather by Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A negatively-tilted trough will lift into the Central Plains this afternoon with a trailing dryline located along the 100th meridian. With the synoptic-scale forcing/ascent lifting to the northeast, thunderstorm development along the dryline remains uncertain as warm mid-level temperatures at the base of the elevated mixed layer (EML) will result in capping inversion at ~750 mb. In addition, low-level convergence along the dryline will be minimal/weak with the surface low and attendant backed winds to the northeast of Oklahoma. The highest chance for development along the dryline is across northwest Oklahoma, which is in closest proximity to the wave. Even so, the chance of development during the late afternoon/early evening is only around 20 to 30%. The chance of development decreases with southward extent along the dryline--but isn't zero. If thunderstorms develop, instability and vertical wind shear will be sufficient for supercells with CAPE between 3000-3500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear between 30 to 35 knots. By evening, the low- level jet will amplify with 50 to 60 knot winds. The strengthening low-level jet will increase low-level wind shear, resulting in enlarged, clockwise- curved hodographs that will be favorable for tornadoes--including strong tornadoes. As a result, if there are any ongoing supercells in the evening, they will have an increasing tornado potential. In addition to the dryline, another feature will be a subtle wave embedded in the subtropical jet stream (STJ) that will lift northward into south central/southeast Oklahoma. This wave may result in a few showers and thunderstorms today. While it appears likely this activity will be elevated and associated with isentropic/ascent warm air advection, there is a low chance this activity could become surface-based with a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. To the west of the dryline, fire weather conditions will be a concern in the afternoon. Hot temperatures, gusty southerly winds, and low humidity will result in critical fire weather conditions. The worst fire weather conditions will be across the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. However, far western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western north Texas will be right on the edge. Depending on the exact location of the dryline, there will likely be a very tight relative humidity gradient near the 100th meridian (Oklahoma/Texas state line). Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning except for Jackson County. It could very well be a situation where the fire weather conditions are worse in the western part of the counties compared to the eastern part of the counties. In addition to the risk of severe and fire weather, a tight surface pressure gradient will result in breezy southerly winds today. Mahale && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A cold front will enter northern Oklahoma late this evening, which will likely result in a line of thunderstorms developing along the front. The line of thunderstorms will move to the southeast Monday night into Tuesday morning with the cold front with a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts and embedded,QLCS tornadoes would be the potential hazards. However, the tendency for the cold front to undercut the line of thunderstorms and unfavorable shear vectors/line orientation should reduce the QLCS tornado risk. Cooler weather and northerly winds are expected in the front's wake Tuesday afternoon. Another wave is forecast to approach late Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will result in increasing isentropic ascent/warm air advection to the north of the cold front. Widespread elevated showers and thunderstorms are possible with the potential hazards being heavy rainfall/flooding and hail. The location with the highest chance for heavy rainfall is south central/southeast Oklahoma. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 An active subtropical jet stream (STJ) with subtle waves lifting into the Southern Plains will result in a daily chance of showers/storms through the end the week into next weekend. At this time, there is no day that has an appreciable risk for severe weather. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable for late May. Mahale && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Scattered to broken low clouds have mostly lifted to VFR ceiling heights, but a few sites could see MVFR ceilings off and on through mid afternoon. Very low storm chances exist this afternoon into this evening across western OK and western north TX, but better chances are expected along a cold front that will cross the area tonight into Tuesday morning. Expect gusty south winds to continue ahead of the front through this evening, with a shift to gusty northerly winds and MVFR ceilings behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 61 71 55 72 / 80 40 80 30 Hobart OK 60 75 54 75 / 60 30 60 20 Wichita Falls TX 68 82 58 77 / 50 70 70 30 Gage OK 49 73 46 72 / 20 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 58 70 53 71 / 80 30 30 10 Durant OK 74 84 64 78 / 20 90 70 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>027- 034>038. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-009-014- 021-033-034. TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084. && $$ NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...08  328 FXUS61 KPBZ 181709 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 109 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... On the whole, the forecast remains unchanged, except for higher confidence in an 8p to 2a arrival of storms in northwest PA and eastern Ohio Tuesday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heat impacts for sensitive populations continue early this week, with temperatures up to the upper-80s to low-90s. 2) Conditional terrain/lake driven severe chances today, highest severe chances tomorrow evening for NW PA and east OH, and conditional severe threats Wednesday SE of Pittsburgh with departing front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The 12Z surface analysis has the 587dm height line draped across the area, which generally suggests that upper 80s are most likely for highs today. A non-BC model like the LREF and HREF, generally agree, with the 25th-75th percentile spreads narrow and generally between 86F and 90F. With high confidence in mostly clear skies for most today, its possible these deterministic high tend toward the higher end of the non-BC distribution. So this would generally mean temperatures near-90, with some 90s possible with urban and river-valley terrain influence. Some "cooler spots" into the low-to-mid 80s are favored for high terrain and north of I-80. Highs today will be within a few degrees of record highs for all climate sites. The HREF only alludes to temperatures dropping into the mid-to- upper 60s, which will provide little chance for temperature recovery overnight. This will challenge a few "max-low temperature" records. Mean heights may drop slightly Tuesday with the beginning of a ridge breakdown. Additionally, more mid- moisture will also allow for more cloud cover. All in all, temperatures may be a degree or two cooler in areas that do not see rain, but cumulative heat stress continues. So upper-80s, are again favored for most. The NWS heat risk shows mostly a moderate risk Monday into Tuesday, whereby heat may generally impact the most sensitive populations. Make sure to stay hydrated or monitor for signs of heat illness if spending excessive time outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 2... All of the area will be under the northern periphery of the ridge axis today, with corresponding subsidence enforcing mid- level capping. While diurnal cumulus are developing, as we continue to mix into a dry layer (evidenced on 12Z sounding from 750mb to 600mb), we expect most vertical development to be limited. There's a couple exceptions that will need to be addressed. First will be the high terrain. With ridge-top convergence in mostly NE flow aloft, we coudn't rule out a storm firing in an environment of 1000-1200 DCAPE, which could certainty carry a conditional downburst wind threat in the low probability this happens. Consistently, the highest chance of development has been eastern Tucker County, but with NW flow aloft, the thought would be that the highest risk would be to the east for the forecast area. The second area would be a conditional threat of storm development on a lake breeze this afternoon. This is lower confidence, but should it occur, the same downburst threat is possible, with outflow potentially carrying development into NW Pennsylvania. Both threats are conditional on development (<30% chance), but should development occur, damaging wind risks would increase substantially. A ridge breakdown begins Tuesday, with afternoon storm development in western Ohio likely. The most likely timing of this appears late- day. There's a bit of a conditional risk from 20Z to 00Z, but the current thought is that capping will be too strong to let the environment utilize the ~1500 to 2500 MUCAPE for "bubble-up" convection in NW PA in the afternoon. Later, some combination of outflow from the Ohio convection on a pre-frontal trough and/or a lake breeze will make convection more likely in the 00Z to 06Z window. Since this timing is mostly after sunset, storms are expected to have a decaying trend as they enter the area, but they certainty could be strong enough to produce wind gusts up to 60mph, most likely for the I-80 corridor with DCAPE of 900 to 1000, with threats also possible into eastern Ohio. Convective intensity is expected to wain overnight as the parent cold front moves in, but some isolated showers/storms remain possible. Wednesday will bring more of a conditional severe threat southeast of Pittsburgh, with the main uncertainty being 1) frontal timing and 2) cloud cover. In a scenario with a slower front and limited cloud cover, recovery of instability and a limited severe threat is possible for northern WV and far SW PA. But should the front be faster or clouds complicate instability generation, severe threats are lower. Severe chances taper over the next week. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High confidence VFR through the TAF period under the influence of high pressure east of the region. A few cu develops this afternoon with peak heating/mixing while southwest winds occasionally gust between 15-25kts. Any convective chances are tied to weak convergence along the WV ridge-line, with storms drift northeast. Recent deterministic models are showing a lower likelihood for this occurring. There is a non-zero chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms develop off its outflow near to after 00z tonight around northwest PA but probability is too low for TAF mention. Nocturnal increases in the low-level jet may create brief periods of LLWS, however, the lack of duration or meeting criteria (either by speed/direction or by height) led to an omission from TAFs. Area mid to high level cloud cover increases overnight into Tuesday morning in association with an eastward moving but decaying MCS. These clouds are expected to dissipate with daytime heating allowing VFR ceilings to persist through the day. Some isolated thunderstorms possible in northwestern PA, however, they were omitted from the TAFs due to <25% probability of occurrence. Outlook... An upper shortwave and surface front will push a shower/thunderstorm axis east Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon. Initial restrictions will be tied to rainfall intensities with height falls not occurring until after frontal passage. High pressure and VFR returns by Thursday areawide before an active pattern feature multiple rain chances develops Friday into the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Milcarek AVIATION...Frazier/Lupo  306 FXUS64 KOHX 181709 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1209 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Above normal temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s continue through Tuesday. - There is a high chance for showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday. The severe threat is very low. - Additional rain chances late week may push rainfall totals over 2 inches by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1118 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Not much in terms of cloud cover over Middle Tennessee currently, but clouds are approaching from the west and the south this afternoon. We're already in the 80s in a lot of areas across Middle Tennessee, with highs expected to top out in the low 90s. We could possibly see a stray shower or thunderstorm from the convection to our north and west this evening, but that probability is very low at this time. Tuesday will be the start of a pattern shift in the area. Through the end of the week, Middle Tennessee will be stuck in a troughing pattern with several systems coming through. The good news is it looks to bring some much needed rainfall to our yards, with QPF through the end of the forecast period around 1.5 to 2.3 inches. The bad news is there is a severe threat associated with a cold front Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. The severe threat is a marginal risk, level 1 out of 5, but not impressive. Any severe weather we get in Middle Tennessee with this will be pretty isolated, as the better parameters for more widespread severe are displaced to our northwest again. Despite cloud cover, southerly flow will raise our temperatures into the 90s once again for highs on Tuesday before the cold front swings through. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1118 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Our unsettled weather continues mid-week, with our highest rain chances Wednesday. As the cold front passes through and high pressure sets up to the north, expect rainy conditions all day on Wednesday. While it will be a soaker, severe weather is not a concern at this time. The cold front will slowly pass through Middle Tennessee into Wednesday night, and is expected to stall out just to our south in northern Mississippi and Alabama. This will lead to another higher rain chance south of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. PWATs will remain on the higher side through the forecast period, and probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain by the end of the weekend are still around that 50-70% range. We will continue to cross our fingers and hope the rain totals don't decrease! Temperatures will drop a little after the front to the upper 70s and low 80s, but that's about it for the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions persist this taf cycle. Southerly winds will remain breezy through the afternoon with sustained speeds 10-14 kts and occasional gusts up to 30 kts. Winds will relax this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 91 67 83 / 10 20 60 100 Clarksville 72 90 66 80 / 0 40 80 90 Crossville 66 84 64 81 / 0 10 40 90 Columbia 70 90 66 83 / 10 20 50 90 Cookeville 69 87 66 81 / 0 10 40 90 Jamestown 66 88 64 83 / 0 10 40 90 Lawrenceburg 70 87 67 82 / 10 10 60 90 Murfreesboro 71 90 67 84 / 10 10 60 100 Waverly 73 90 68 81 / 0 30 70 90 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Baggett  356 FXUS62 KFFC 181710 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 110 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions through Tuesday outside of a few afternoon showers and storms and along the GA/AL border. - Warm temperatures continue the next few days with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Increased rain chances return from Wednesday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Another warm day expected this afternoon as temperatures rise into the upper 80s and low 90s. The best chance for afternoon thunderstorms has shifted to the west, though a few isolated thunderstorms are possible along the GA/AL border this afternoon. Coverage seems to be significantly less than yesterdays storms. Instability will be a limiting factor as well with high pressure keeping a cap on most of the CWA. The forecast for Tuesday is a bit of a carbon copy for today though with increasing afternoon clouds out a head of the cold front that's expected to bring the next round of weather. You can find more information about that system in the long term below. Winds will remain southerly at 5-10mph with some higher gusts in the higher elevations of northern Georgia. Overnight lows will be pleasantly in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 By Wednesday afternoon and evening, a cold front will push southeastward toward far north Georgia. The highest PoPs will be relegated to these areas in proximity to the frontal forcing with drier conditions initially favored farther southeast. The front makes only limited southward progress by Thursday into north Georgia as upper support departs northeastward from the Great Lakes into Quebec. As such, diurnally-enhanced PoPs should again be highest along/north of the I-20 corridor. Flow aloft then transitions into southwest flow by late week as the front becomes stationary. Weak shortwaves within this flow will enhance convective coverage headed into the weekend, particularly with the aid of diurnal heating. Coverage again will likely be highest across roughly the northern half of the area through this period. The organized severe threat continues to look low given the summer-like weakly sheared environment, a couple of strong to isolated severe storms certainly can't be ruled out. While locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, the lack of a widespread and persistent soaking rainfall will limit the overall impact on the drought through the forecast period. Temperatures remain generally several degrees above normal (highs in the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s on the warmest days and lows in the 60s), though marginally cooler highs are possible late week given increased clouds and convective coverage. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at most sites through the 18Z TAF period. CU fields of 3-4kft this afternoon may become BKN at times, but will generally remain FEW-SCT. Skies mostly SKC tonight into Tuesday AM, with a low chance for MVFR-IFR CIG development at MCN/AHN around 10-14Z. Winds light out of the S-SE through the period, ranging from 6-8kts during the day and less than 5kts overnight. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High on all elements. Culver && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 90 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 88 67 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 83 60 83 62 / 10 0 0 0 Cartersville 89 65 89 65 / 10 0 0 10 Columbus 90 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 87 63 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 90 63 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 88 63 88 63 / 20 0 0 10 Peachtree City 89 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 90 64 91 65 / 0 0 10 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...Culver  693 FXUS64 KEPZ 181711 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1111 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 - Critical fire weather conditions today due to strong winds and very low humidity. Red Flag Warnings in effect for most of New Mexico and West Texas. - Lighter winds, but still breezy conditions during the afternoons, Tuesday through Friday. Winds shift around to east Saturday and Sunday for areas east of the Rio Grande Valley, increasing low level moisture and bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly over Otero and Hudspeth Counties. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Broad long-wave trough will persist over the western US through Friday with a series of short-waves ejecting out over the forecast area through this same period, allowing breezy afternoons each day. In the short term, one short-wave has just passed through the CWA and now over eastern New Mexico. Another wave is just through the Four Corners and will allow gusty winds to continue into this evening as it sweeps through. At the surface, back door cool front just into far NE New Mexico, with dry-line extending from the western Texas Panhandle down to the Big Bend. Both fronts will retreat north/east today but will be players later in the week. Today...continued gusty winds with critical fire conditions. Some blowing dust is possible again this afternoon, mostly over west Texas but possibly local areas near Deming and Lordsburg also. Tuesday through Thursday...next short-wave deepens some over the Great Basin but makes very little progress eastward. Second impulse dives further south over SoCal, eventually closing off a weak low over the northern Baja Thursday night. Bottom line...moderate mid-level winds will continue but surface pattern is disrupted by back door cool front continuing to lurk over NE New Mexico. Thus lee-side low (weak) develops over northern New Mexico and does not allow strong pressure gradient to develop like more typical NE New Mexico surface low. However winds will still remain breezy each afternoon. Temperatures will remain seasonable. Friday through Sunday...long-wave trough finally begins moving east and weak high pressure aloft starts building over the Desert Southwest. This initially pushes the back door front down to the Sacramento Mtns Friday evening before stalling out. Dry-line also drifts west but remains east of the forecast area through this period. Dewpoints do rise into the 40s, mainly east of the RG Valley. POPs start over the far eastern CWA Saturday and Sunday. Modest instability Saturday, but increases on Sunday. Decent MUCAPE values and some directional shear could allow some strong storms to develop. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with FEW120 SCT250. Surface winds west 15-20G30 knots decreasing after 03Z to west 8-12 knots. Patchy 5SM BLDU, mainly over El Paso/Hudspeth Counties from 20Z-01Z. Note: KELP winds will approach AWW criteria but likely remain just below for the majority of the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Today continues in critical fire conditions as gusty winds, which really lasted all night in many locations, increases again this afternoon. Thus Red Flag Warnings will continues into this evening. Tuesday through Friday, wind conditions slacken a bit, but each afternoon will still become breezy. Fire conditions to remain at elevated levels. Winds over the Capitan Mountains will lighten up a bit after today, and will see significant wind shift to the east/northeast Friday night and Saturday. This will also produce modest increases in dewpoint/humidity, and could lead to a shower or thunderstorm over eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties Saturday and Sunday. Despite this uptick in moisture, ERCs are still forecast to remain around the 90th percentile through Sunday. Min RH: Lowlands 8-13% through Friday, then 12-18% Sat/Sun. Gila/Black Range 8-15% through Friday, then 12-20% Sat/Sun. Sacramento/Capitan Mountains 10-18% through Friday, then 20-30% Sat/Sun. Vent rates excellent through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 63 92 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 89 56 86 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 54 88 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 43 67 44 65 / 0 0 0 20 Truth or Consequences 55 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 48 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 53 91 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 86 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 62 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 92 54 88 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Hancock 59 97 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 84 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 59 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 56 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 89 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 54 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 90 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 92 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 56 87 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 79 47 76 / 0 0 0 30 Mescalero 47 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 45 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 20 Winston 42 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 53 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 86 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 46 83 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 46 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 81 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 50 82 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 50 87 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 88 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 88 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner  652 FXUS65 KTFX 181710 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1110 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly mountain showers today, with dry and cool conditions elsewhere. - Another cold night is in store tonight across the valleys of Southwest and Central Montana, with a high chance for a hard freeze. - Temperatures moderate through rest of the work week, but daily chances for showers exist. && .UPDATE... /Issued 645 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026/ Lingering northerly flow aloft has resulted in a few areas of more persistent upslope snow in a few mountain areas. The only change this morning was to increase probability of precip and snow amounts in these areas through the remainder of the morning. Precipitation becomes more showery in nature this afternoon as daytime heating ensues, and largely looks to be confined to the mountains and adjacent areas. -AM && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 645 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: One final day of well below normal temperatures can be expected as cool, cyclonic northwest flow prevails over the Northern Rockies, with additional opportunities for predominately mountain precipitation, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front. By this afternoon upper level ridging over the Eastern Pacific will begin to amplify, with overall rising heights across much of the Western CONUS. While this ridge will amplify over the Eastern Pacific it will fail to build east and over the Northern Rockies through the work week, which will help to keep Southwest through North Central Montana beneath continued northwest flow aloft. While temperatures will moderate beneath the rising heights aloft there will be daily chances for showers and storms throughout the work week, especially from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning when a compact shortwave dives southeast and over the Northern Rockies within the aforementioned northwest flow aloft. This shortwave looks to bring the best chance for widespread precipitation this week, with most lower elevations seeing light rainfall up to 0.10" and the mountains seeing between 0.10" to 0.25". The exception to this will be the northerly upslope areas of Central Montana, Island Ranges of Central Montana, and Continental Divide where precipitation amounts of between 0.10" to 0.25" and 0.25" to 0.50" are possible for plain and mountain locations, respectively. This weekend the upper level flow will become quasi-zonal, which will lead to increasing surface winds and warming temperatures, with most locations climbing above to well above normal. - Moldan - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Cold Temperatures Tonight... Upper level ridging building in over the Northern Rockies combined with overall light surface winds and mostly clear skies will setup ideal radiational cooling processes across much of Southwest through North Central Montana tonight, with the exception of the immediate Rocky Mountain Front where southwest surface wind will be just strong enough to inhibit surface decoupling. With below normal temperatures already in place thanks to this weekends disturbance temperatures will cool efficient tonight; with a 50% or greater chance that values fall below freezing across most locations and 70% or greater chance for a hard freeze across most valley locations in Southwest and Central Montana. Those with early season gardening interest should be prepared to take protective measure for sensitive vegetation. Below is the NBM5.0 probabilities for certain temperatures for select locations across North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana tonight. Low Temperature Probabilities LOCATION <36F | <32F | <28F Browning 100% | 55% | <5% Cut Bank 95% | 60% | 20% Havre 100% | 80% | 40% Great Falls 95% | 60% | 25% Lewistown 100% | 100% | 85% Helena 85% | 45% | 5% Bozeman 100% | 100% | 85% Dillon 100% | 100% | 70% Ennis 100% | 100% | 90% West Yellowstone 100% | 100% | 100% Gusty Winds and Choppy Water this Memorial Day Weekend... Increasing south to west surface winds over the holiday weekend, specifically on Sunday and Monday, is likely to lead to choppy water conditions on area lakes, reservoirs, and long fetches of rivers. NBM5.0 probabilities for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph across most of Southwest through North Central Montana range from a 20-40% chance on Sunday and between a 40-60% chance on Monday, with the exception of the Rocky MOuntain Front where a 40-75% chance exists both days. Those with plans to recreate on waterways should be prepared for choppy conditions, especially considering that local waterways will be significantly colder than the ambient air temperature due to snowmelt. These choppy conditions and cold water temperatures will create an increased risk for drowning should a person fall into the water without proper safety equipment. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 18/18Z TAF Period Primary concern this TAF period will be for low-VFR or MVFR ceilings at times through the afternoon. Additionally, numerous showers look to develop this afternoon, mostly near terrain, which will be capable of brief cig/vis reductions and briefly gusty winds at terminals in close proximity to mountains. Mountains will be obscured at times through the evening where showers form. Clouds begin to clear tonight, which paired light winds, will yield an opportunity for fog by Tuesday morning. Confidence in this fog developing at any specific terminal was too low to warrant mention in TAFs at this time, however. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 52 29 63 40 / 10 0 30 10 CTB 54 31 63 38 / 20 10 20 10 HLN 55 29 62 38 / 10 10 20 0 BZN 51 22 60 34 / 10 0 10 0 WYS 41 16 51 24 / 10 10 20 0 DLN 48 23 60 30 / 10 10 20 0 HVR 54 26 66 41 / 10 0 50 10 LWT 46 23 59 36 / 40 0 30 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  799 FXUS64 KLUB 181713 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1213 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1210 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Critical to extremely critical fire danger will exist Monday afternoon across much of the region. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and off the Caprock, then again along an overnight front Monday into Tuesday. - Much cooler Tuesday through Friday with daily afternoon shower and thunderstorms throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 An upper level shortwave trough digging through the Desert Southwest will set up near the Four Corners regions early Monday morning, before translating into the Southern Plains by late Monday afternoon. Thus leading to the continuation of southwest flow aloft across the area. Increased speeds aloft are expected by Monday morning the upper level low inches closer to the region, with speeds around 40 to 50 knots, and up to 60+ knots within the H5 jet. Additionally, mid-level winds will also increase and overspread the Caprock regions as notable H7 and H8 wind maxima set up near the South Plains while a surface lows sets up over the northern Texas Panhandle. This will promote eastward mixing of a sharpening dryline across the area Monday afternoon, setting up across our most eastern column of counties, while temperatures climb into the mid to upper 90s and lower triple digits as breezy to near windy southwest flow continues. Three hour MSLP changes around 3mb to 4mb suggest winds will become near and/or in excess of wind advisory level criteria with speeds around 25 to 35 mph with potential gusts to 50 mph not out of the question. A wind advisory is in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains from noon through 8 PM CDT Monday. East of the boundary, low- level moisture will be more robust, with dewpoint temperatures progged in the 50s and 60s. These dewpoints combined with hot temperatures will support moderate to strong instability across the Rolling Plains with soundings depicting MLCAPE amounts around 1500 J/kg. While weak large scale ascent may limit overall storm coverage across the CWA, with better forcing for ascent residing to our north, isolated thunderstorms will still be possible late Monday afternoon and evening where localized surface convergence is maximized along the dryline before it mixes east out of the area. West of the dryline, hot temperatures along with breezy to wind southwest winds and low relative humidity values will support extremely critical fire danger. Especially on the Caprock were RFTIs of 7 to 8 appear likely with ERCs ranging from the 70th to 95th percentiles. These conditions will promote the rapid spread of wildfires if any fire starts initiate Monday afternoon. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM to 10 PM Monday. By Monday night, the upper trough will moves through the Plains region sending an associated cold front into the region as the surface high dives southward. Most CAMs keep this front north of the area through the short term period, with the front moving into northern portions of the FA around 05Z Tuesday. Given the faster progression of the front in recent guidance, there is a chance this front speeds up and enters portions of the area before midnight. Nonetheless, an additional chance for thunderstorms will exist along the frontal boundary, primarily across our most eastern column of counties. However much of this will be based on the amount of residual moisture that resides in our area during this time frame. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issuedat 1048 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A much needed cool down is expected to start the extended forecast period as the cold front, previously mentioned above in the short term discussion, makes it's arrival into the Caprock regions. Most guidance has the cold front making its way through the southern portion of the FA just after daybreak Tuesday. As mentioned above, a chance for thunderstorms will exist along the frontal boundary, mainly across the Rolling Plains with chances waning through morning. Most precipitation chances will be dependent on the amount of moisture present during the time of the FROPA. If thunderstorms are able to develop, the potential for large hail will exist with forecast soundings depicting steep mid-leel lapse rates around 8 C/km and bulk shear magnitudes around 40 knots. Northerly winds will prevail through much of the morning Tuesday, before shifting more easterly Tuesday afternoon as the surface high shifts east and a surface low develops over central New Mexico. With a cooler airmass in place and upslope component to the winds will allow for much cooler highs Tuesday in the 70s and 80s. This easterly component to the winds will be maintained through much of the mid-week period, allowing for the cooler highs to remain in place through Thursday, before a modest warm-up begins to start the weekend. There remains a small window for a few showers and thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon and evening, as the stalled FROPA begins to retreat back northward closer to the region. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, but if this boundary retreats back into the southern portions of the FA Tuesday afternoon and evening we could see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms develop. As for precipitation the remainder of the week, longwave troughing will encompass much of the western CONUS throughout the week, allowing for southwest flow to prevail over the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base of the trough while perturbations simultaneously track through the main flow. In addition to the upslope component to the winds allowing for increased moisture transport from the Gulf into the region may be enough for daily chances for shower and thunderstorm chances each afternoon Wednesday through Friday. Ensemble guidance is beginning to highlight the potential for heavy rainfall Wednesday, when we see the best forcing for ascent and increased low to mid-level moisture with PWATs well above the 90th percentile normal 9around an inch to an inch and a half) for this time of year. However, it is a bit too early to get into specifics given the lack of uniformity amongst model guidance at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Breezy southwest winds sustained near 25-30 kts and gusting to 40 kts will continue at all sites through this evening. Winds will diminish overnight, before increasing out of the north Tuesday morning. VFR will continue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across much of the Caprock regions Monday afternoon. Breezy to low- end windy southwest winds are expected to increase to around 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph with the highest speeds fixated across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. As temperatures warm into the mid to upper 90s and lower triple digits, relative humidity values will begin to drop into the lower single digits during the afternoon. Across the Caprock is where we expect the highest threat for extremely critical fire danger to exist with RFTIs around 7 to 8. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM CDT Monday through 10 PM CDT Monday evening. A Wind Advisory is also in effect for the far southern Texas Panhandle andportions of the South Plains from noon till 8 PM CDT Monday. Do your part and avoid activities that may cause a spark to help prevent the rapid spread of wildfires. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>037- 039>043. Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>031-033>036. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...19  795 FXUS65 KPSR 181713 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1013 AM MST Mon May 18 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 18z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 11 AM for portions of Southeast California for strong northerly post-frontal winds. - Coolest temperatures over the next week and beyond are expected today, with high temperatures 4 to 7 degrees below normal, before slowly warming back up and nearing 100 degree highs again this weekend. - Daily dry conditions, with no threat of rain, and seasonal afternoon breeziness are expected through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A potent shortwave trough was seen moving eastward through UT early this morning with a southward and southeastward moving cold front through AZ and SoCal. Strong northerly winds and widespread lofted dust were observed post-front in San Bernardino County. The cold front will continue dropping south through southeast CA and southwest AZ early this morning, with strong northerly post- frontal winds expected through mid-morning. A Wind Advisory is in effect for eastern Riverside and northeast Imperial Counties through 11 AM PDT/MST this morning with northerly gusts up to 35-50 mph expected. Latest HREF shows strongest 850mb winds (>40 mph) occurring through around 3-5 AM PDT/MST this morning. During this time is when the greatest impacts - primarily northerly crosswinds across I-10 and localized blowing dust - are anticipated. While the gradient wind is expected to weaken around the sunrise hours, some areas may see northerly wind gusts pick back up for a few hours after sunrise due to mixing. Otherwise, winds should gradually subside across southeast CA and southwest AZ heading into late-morning and the afternoon. Hazy skies should become evident after sunrise this morning, with all the lofted dust across CA and NV, especially across southeast CA and southwest AZ. Hi-res models depict the cold front stalling out across south- central AZ toward sunrise and mid-morning. So, south-central AZ is not expected to experience any of the strong northerly and northwesterly post-frontal winds. There will still be some breezy southwest winds though late morning and this afternoon, mostly gusting up to 15-30 mph. A narrow band of low level moisture and forcing along and ahead of the front will lead to some lower clouds this morning across south-central AZ, including the Phoenix area, and a few hi-res models still support a brief sprinkle shower. So, a few drops falling in the morning, after sunrise cannot be ruled out, but do not expect any measurable rain. The dip in 500mb heights over the area and push of cooler air from the north will result in cooler surface temperatures today, with below normal high temperatures expected across the region. Highs this afternoon are forecast to mostly be in the 80s across the lower deserts, with only 10-20% chances of reaching 90F in places like Phoenix and Yuma. Heading into tomorrow, the potent trough will have left the region, ejecting through the Plains, but another trailing weak shortwave will follow and keep a large-scale trough pattern in place across the Desert Southwest. This will keep temperatures from rapidly warming back up and while they will warm up from today, highs tomorrow are still forecast to come up shy of daily normals. Most lower deserts will top out with highs in the lower 90s. Winds tomorrow will be even lighter than today for most areas. Although, with the trailing shortwave there will be another enhancement to northerly winds down the Colorado River and southeast CA, with peak wind gusts as high as 20-30 mph in the morning through midday. The lagging shortwave will also help draw scattered high clouds into the DesertSouthwest through the day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through the rest of the week, global ensembles depict a lasting weak longwave trough pattern across the Desert South, with neutral height anomalies and no significant shortwaves rolling through the region. This will translate to rather seasonal weather conditions, but with a slow day-to-day warming trend. High temperatures are forecast to be near normal through the end of the work week - highs in the middle to upper 90s. Meanwhile morning lows are expected to be near to slightly below normal, largely due to dry air/low humidity and limited cloud cover. It is not until the weekend when odds of high temperatures reaching the 100 degree mark spikes back up to around 30-60%, as the longwave trough across the Desert Southwest breaks down. Conditions will remain dry through this weekend, with no threat of rain, and seasonal wind patterns are expected, with light winds through the overnight and morning hours and afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1710Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF period. Westerly winds will prevail through this evening with some occasional afternoon gusts into the upper teens. Winds will resume their more typical diurnal pattern tonight through Tuesday with easterly winds expected during the overnight and early morning hours followed by a westerly shift by the late morning/early afternoon. A FEW-SCT clouds between 6-8 kft will prevail into early this afternoon before a FEW high cloud decks move in during the late afternoon followed by clear skies during the late evening/overnight. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies can be expected throughout the TAF period. Northerly winds will prevail through this afternoon before backing more out of the west to northwest this evening. Wind gusts upwards of 20-25 kts will continue across KBLH through this afternoon before gusts subside early this evening. At KIPL, winds will generally remain aob 10 kts throughout the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated and marginally critical fire weather conditions are expected early this morning across portions of southeast CA as a result of strong northerly winds and dry air following a frontal passage. Conditions will improve by late-morning/early-afternoon as northerly winds subside. Elsewhere today, winds will be lighter, but still with peak southwesterly gusts up to 15-30 mph across south-central AZ. Minimum RH values today will be around 5-10% across western districts to 15-25% across eastern districts. Temperatures will be coolest, and below normal, today, which will result lower max mixing heights (up to 6-8K ft above ground level). Temperatures will slowly warm through the end of the week, but remain near seasonal level, and conditions will remain dry. Daily minimum RH values will be around 5-15% each day after today with poor to fair overnight recoveries at 25-50%. After today seasonal wind patterns are expected through the rest of the week, with afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph and the only exception being another brief enhanced northerly wind down the Colorado River tomorrow morning. There is no rain in the forecast through this weekend. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Benedict LONG TERM...Benedict AVIATION...Lojero FIRE WEATHER...Benedict  869 FXUS63 KGLD 181715 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Large range of temperatures today with highs in the low/mid 40s (Yuma county ) to the low 70s (Greeley/Wichita) - Breezy to gusty winds are forecast this afternoon and may lead to blowing dust with visibilities less than one mile (20% chance) along and south of Highway 40. - Early Tuesday morning, a freeze watch is in effect for Eastern Colorado where temperatures could drop into the upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1232 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A weak surface trough remains across the northern portion of the area as is forecast to lead to isolated showers and storms favoring Yuma county through the early morning hours. Just southeast of the area a cold front has stalled out leading to training storms. The position of this front is very important for the forecast for Monday. First off however northeast flow is forecast to remain in place with stratus and perhaps some fog as well but the fog potential is rather low as winds are forecast to be breezy around 10-20 mph sustained. Am seeing some isentropic ascent as well overnight leading to the continued potential for drizzle or light showers developing across most of the area. Dry air above 700mb should help any prevent any updraft from utilizing any remaining MUCAPE aloft so not expecting any overnight storms due to this. Monday, as mentioned above the positioning of the boundary tonight will be very important for temperatures and even blowing dust potential. The cold front that moved through the area today is forecast to be stalled out as a stationary front. Some guidance continues to show it being stalled out roughly around Highway 40 in the southern part of the forecast area; whereas others has it south of the of the area across southwest Kansas. If the front does remain around Highway 40 then temperatures south of there would be around 5- 10 degrees warmer than what is currently forecast at this time along with elevated to even very locally critical fire weather conditions in place. Blowing dust would with visibilities falling to around 1 mile or less would also be possible with plumes of dust. Around 21Z a stronger surge of cold air advection is forecast to move in as a low pressure system pulls off to the east. If the warmer air in place remains in the area then a haboob could be possible as mixing heights are forecast to be around 6000 feet AGL. With all of this have decided to introduce patchy blowing dust into the forecast as confidence is around 20% in dust developing and around 5-10% in a haboob. Have been noticing a more southern trend with the positioning of the stationary front in ensembles and most of 00Z data and if that does continue then any dust threat would be eliminated. Winds are forecast to increase with gusts around 50-55 mph with the front especially south of Interstate 70 and gusts up to 40 mph elsewhere from the north. The winds will also lead to chilly wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s especially across Yuma county where temperatures may struggle to warm up much. With persistent low clouds currently forecast to remain in place through the day and the signal for the stationary boundary to remain south of the area have nudged down temperatures more. High temperatures are currently in the mid 40s to mid 50s behind the front and 70s to low 80s ahead of the front. If the front indeed is south of the area then any severe threat would also be eliminated. Showers and storms however are forecast to develop during the afternoon hours with some 500mb vorticity off of the mountains but minimal CAPE and what is forecast to be a fairly stable environment so anticipating any hazards with thisactivity at this time. Cold air advection is forecast to continue through the night Monday. Guidance continues to suggest that stratus returns or even continues in spots. Breezy winds are forecast to remain in place for the majority of the night with the exception being across eastern Colorado where a surface high is forecast to move in from the northwest waning winds. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s across eastern Colorado. There are some failure points to how cold it may get however. The first one is the lingering low level moisture in place keeping low clouds across the area. The other is the breezy winds through the night. With all of this in place confidence is not high enough to upgrade to a warning or even Frost Advisory at this time so will leave the watch as is. Tuesday, the surface high is forecast to be over more of the area leading to lighter winds and from the east. Another cool day is forecast across the area with highs currently forecast in the 60s. Dry conditions are currently forecast for most of the day but an advancing 500mb shortwave off of the mountains is forecast to gradually increase shower potential starting during the evening and overnight hours. Minimal CAPE is forecast to be present so currently not anticipating any thunderstorm potential with this activity. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Wednesday, our region is forecast under a southwest upper-level flow with a weak trough developing west of the Rocky Mountains and a ridge building off the west coast. Wednesday will be cool and windy with high temperatures forecast in the 60s and wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph are possible west of Highway 27. Several embedded shortwaves will pass through the region bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The entire county warning area (CWA) has a Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 30-40% during the day Wednesday. PoPs increase in the evening to around 60-70% and persist overnight into Thursday for the southern CWA. Conditions remain unseasonably cool for Thursday with highs again forecast in the 60s. Our region remains in a southwest upper-level flow with embedded shortwaves passing through, so chances for showers and thunderstorms continue. Cooler temperatures and a mostly stable environment will likely keep and storms that develop sub- severe. Pops range from 30-60% Thursday overnight into Friday with the southern CWA on the higher end. Ensembles are in disagreement on when the aforementioned trough ejects eastward and takes us out of the persistent southwest flow, but it will likely move on after Friday. A slight warming trend begins Friday with high temperatures forecast in the 70s for Friday and 80s for Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain Friday through Saturday with PoPs around 20-30% for the eastern CWA as several shortwaves pass through the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1112 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 IFR will continue through most of the TAF period at both KGLD and KMCK due to low ceilings and occasional showers/drizzle. Surface winds will shift to northerly late this afternoon with gusts up to 35 kts through early evening, then gradually diminishing the rest of the night. Not expecting a return to VFR until Tuesday morning when ceilings will lift. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for COZ090>092. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...024  857 FXUS63 KIND 181715 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 115 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon and evening with damaging winds, large hail and localized flooding - Highs in the 80s today and Tuesday - Storms will end Wednesday as the front shifts south, but unsettled weather likely returns late this week into the holiday weekend && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1014 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A line of thunderstorms continues to march east into central Illinois this morning, and scattered convection is developing ahead of this line with an area of additional lift. Temperatures across central Indiana were already in the upper 70s with dewpoints generally in the lower to middle 60s. Upper 60s dewpoints were in the far southwest and farther upstream to the southwest. Based on latest radar trends, sped up arrival of PoPs this morning into early afternoon. The newer convection leads to some increased uncertainty on how convection evolves this afternoon. Instability will continue to build, especially central and east before the clouds from upstream convection limit heating. The initial convection will be able to tap into this instability, but upstream convection may have less to work with. Either way, strong to severe convection remains a threat into the afternoon so will continue to mention. High temperatures may be optimistic west but for now will make no changes and continue to monitor. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1244 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Thunderstorms are developing along the Indiana Illinois state line. These storms have been loosely organized so far, but an outflow boundary from convection further upstream is impinging from the west. This outflow boundary may allow storms to consolidate into a more coherent line as they progress deeper into Indiana. A recent sounding from Purdue University shows modest lapse rates between 6-7 C/Km, with a moist profile to about 500 mb. Additionally, modest shear is also present (20-25 knots) with messy hodographs centered around the mean storm motion. As such, little in the way of storm relative upper-level outflow appears likely...storms should behave more like single cells to multicell clusters until they become influenced by the outflow boundary or their own outflow. Once storms consolidate on the outflow boundary, they should still be relatively 'pulsey' in nature but more organized than in the open warm sector. The primary threat today appears to be strong wind gusts, as enough moisture loading within mature updrafts is possible for wet microbursts. Additionally, cold pool dynamics such as rear- inflow jet surges are also possible which may produce strong to damaging wind gusts. Given a mean shear vector towards the northeast, cold pools that orient in a NW to SE direction pose the greatest threat for severe wind gusts. Hail is possible but given only modest lapse rates, high moisture content, and the lack of long straight hodographs it does not appear to be all that likely. Tornado potential also appears low, given the outflow dominant nature of storms today. A brief QLCS spin up cannot be ruled out, however. Another threat, likely replacing wind as the primary hazard later this evening, is the potential for flooding and flash flooding. High- resolution guidance shows the cold pool settling in a SW to NE fashion across central Indiana. This may allow for repeated rounds of storms into tonight. As mentioned above, moisture content in the profile is high and freezing levels are near 15,000 feet. With a warm cloud layer over 10,000 feet in thickness, warm rain processes should lead to efficient rainfall production today. As such, various CAMs are showing pockets of very heavy rainfall totals between 3 to 5 inches. HREF ensemble mean shows a large area of 1 to 2 inches. Because of this potential, a Flood Watch has been issued for for western portions of the area. As cold pools become more defined, this may need to be trimmed or expanded. && .DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)... Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 An amplified upper level pattern for early this week anchored by a deep trough over the northern Rockies and strong ridging over the eastern part of the country. The ridge will gradually flatten as the trough shifts east enabling a strong cold front to track into the region by late Tuesday. With a warm and unstable airmass ahead of the front...multiple opportunities for thunderstorms will exist through Tuesday night with severe weather possible this afternoon and potentially again Tuesday afternoon and evening as the cold front moves through. High pressure will bring a briefly drier period midweek before unsettled conditions return late week in response to the front lifting back north into the region. Today through Tuesday Night Quiet early morning across central Indiana with clear skies. 06Z temperatures remained warm in the upper 60s and lower 70s in many locations. An active 48 hours is anticipated through Tuesday night with multiple opportunities for rain and thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather in advance of a cold front currently over the Plains and poised to move across the area by Tuesday evening. An ongoing area of convection continues early this morning from the upper Midwest southwest into central Kansas. Much of the line has weakened from Sunday evening with the exception of the southern part of the line over the Missouri Valley where instability and BL shear remain more than sufficient to maintain convective intensity. This portion of the line is likely to remain strong for the remainder of the night with an in creasing flood risk as it sags into south central Missouri and becomes increasingly parallel to the mean flow. The weaker portion of the line over Iowa is of greater interest to the forecast area as its remnants will enable the old outflow boundary to drift into central Illinois by mid to late morning with convection becoming reinvigorated as the outflow interacts with a rapidly destabilizing airmass over the region. Convection will continue to grow upscale as it tracks into the Wabash Valley early this afternoon then presses southeast across the forecast area. Model soundings show steepening mid level lapse rates with SBCAPEs 2000-2500 j/kg and sufficient shear that would support damaging winds...especially if the cold pool can mature. Furthermore...DCAPE values approach 1000 j/kg immediately ahead of the convective line which also lends credence to the damaging wind risk. Abundant CAPE is present within the hail growth zone as well and stronger cells will carry a large hail threat as well. Timing of the greatest risk for severe weather will be between 17Z and 22Z. Storms will weaken as they track towards the Indiana-Ohio border by early evening as it moves away from the deeper instability and stronger low level winds. An axis of PWATs between 1.75 and 2 inches will support torrential rainfall and flooding. The greatest concern will be across the southwest half of the forecast area as training cells become a factor with the line curving back to the west along the instability axis. Showers and embedded storms will continue into the evening but with the airmass worked over from the afternoon convection...the general trend will be towards rain diminishing as weak ridging aloft reestablishes for the overnight. Tuesday has become a bit more uncertain with respect to convective evolution and the potential for another round of severe weather as the model suite has sped up the arrival of the front into the forecast area in the afternoon. More impactful though will be the possibility of convective cloud debris by Tuesday morning from an MCS over the Missouri Valley Monday night. That will stunt diurnal heating and available instability and the earlier arrival of the front during the afternoon presents the possibility that the greater risk for more robust convection will focus across the southeast half of the forecast area and points east late afternoon into the evening. That being said...model soundings do continue to highlight mid level lapse rates up to 7.5C/km with a deep layer of dry adiabatic flow across the region combined with sufficient levels of BL shear to support scattered stronger convection at a minimum with the available instability. Damaging winds will again be the primary risk from these storms with large hail serving as a secondary threat. The cold front will become more parallel to the flow aloft on Tuesday night which will keep showers and thunderstorms across much of the forecast area into Tuesday night...gradually ending from the north overnight as drier air advects into the region. Highs will be tricky both today and Tuesday...dependent on convective timing this afternoon and cloud debris Tuesday. Nudged highs both days down from the model blend with low to mid 80s for much of the forecast area. Wednesday through Sunday Convection may still be ongoing across the southeast half of the forecast area Wednesday morning but will gradually end through the morning as the front shifts south of the region and high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Confidence continues to grow on the boundary becomes quasi stationary across the Tennessee Valley into Thursday before lifting back north into the Ohio Valley Friday as the high passing to the north moves east into New England. The ensemble guidance has gotten more aggressive in this solution with scattered to numerous showers and storms Friday and Friday night as the front lifts north through the forecast area. Lower confidence remains for the weekend as the return of a warmer and more unstable airmass south of the front will support at least a daily threat for scattered convection but the lack of much agreement in the model ensemble makes employing detail in the timing and coverage of rainfall difficult through much of the holiday weekend. After temperatures mainly in the upper 60s and low 70s Wednesday and Thursday...highs will climb back into the upper 70s and lower 80s Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 114 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Impacts: - Showers and storms at times into this evening - Peak wind gusts this afternoon at 25 to 30kts Discussion: Initial area of convection impacting the western sites at the moment will continue to move east and will impact the other sites early in the period. Additional development will continue into the evening, so there will be periods of showers and storms through about 03Z. IFR and worse are possible in convection. While additional convection may pop up overnight, better chances for convection return closer to 18Z Tuesday. Gusty winds will continue this afternoon, and near LLWS conditions are possible tonight. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...50 AVIATION...50 DISCUSSION...Ryan MESOSCALE...Eckhoff  873 FXUS65 KPUB 181715 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme fire danger is expected across our southern plains today, with southwest winds gusting 45 to 50 mph and humidity values in the single digits. - 50 mph winds are expected over the southern mountains and the San Luis Valley, which may lead to blowing dust over the valley, blowing snow over the mountains, and travel concerns resulting in both cases. - Showers will be possible north of Highway 50 and west of I-25, with thunderstorms mainly across the Pikes Peak region. - A Freeze Watch remains in place for El Paso and Kiowa counties tonight, and frost may be possible for other portions of the plains as well. - Cooler and wetter weather is expected for all areas tomorrow and Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1112 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Lots of changes to the forecast this morning, mainly with headlines. Blowing Dust and High Wind Warnings have been added to the San Luis Valley with high winds mainly confined to the central and southern portions of the area. Still monitoring Baca and Las Animas counties for potential Blowing Dust Advsy or Dust storm warnings once the winds kick in as the front lifts northward. These decisions will need to be made based on mesoscale details with short fused type warnings. -KT && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 For the plains..The elusive cold front has sagged back south since sunset, and is now sitting between Springfield and Campo across Baca County. This front and where it ends up again this afternoon will be the driving factor in today's forecast across the plains once again. North of the front and west of I-25, stratus has begun to develop up against the terrain as of midnight. USAFA is reporting ceilings down to 2,000ft, and the Colorado Springs airfield is starting to see lower scattered decks as well. Models continue to suggest that rain will be possible as upslope continues across the mountains/plains interface throughout this morning. Thunderstorms will be possible across the Pikes Peak region again this afternoon, though severe development is not expected. That said, lots of shear will present over the region today, so if any areas clear out and warm up, chances for a stronger storm or two may be possible, especially over the higher terrain of the Pikes Peak region. The main forecast concern on our plains today though will be our high end Red Flag Warning across our southern plains. Las Animas and Baca counties are both included in this warning, and southern portions of Bent and Prowers counties may see periods of critical conditions as well depending on how far north/east the front gets shoved this afternoon. Over these areas, single digit relative humidity values and southwest wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are expected. The strongest winds and lowest humidities will be over Baca County this afternoon, which will lead to the possibility for extreme fire behavior for any new or existing fires today. Please use extra caution and take care not to start a wildfire today. One last note for the plains, gusty winds over our southeast plains may also lead to blowing dust and hazardous travel conditions. Once the sun sets, the front *finally* pushes itself completely southwards, allowing all areas to cool and moisten through the overnight hours. This will put an end to fire weather concerns for a few days. Overnight lows will be chilly in our post frontal airmass though, and areas north of Highway 50 may see hard freeze conditions by Tuesday morning. El Paso and Kiowa counties are both under Freeze Watches for tonight through early Tuesday morning, and temperatures down into the upper 20s will bepossible. Another tier of counties or two may also see the potential for frost depending on clearing through the overnight hours. For the high country and the San Luis Valley..Models bring the trough axis through our southern mountains between 9 AM and Noon or so, which will be the windiest timeframe for the San Juans, the San Luis Valley, and the Sangres. The NBM continues to be the only outlier suggesting high wind criteria, so have continued to trend towards other model consensus, which keeps winds below warning levels across the area. The San Luis Valley is likely to see gusts upwards of 50 mph or so though, especially if any showers survive off the mountains and help to enhance gusts coming down the terrain. Areas of blowing dust are likely across the Valley today, especially with any localized stronger winds from decaying showers. Over the mountains, a quick 2 to 4 inches of wind driven snow will be possible for the San Juans and the central mountains. Though totals will be low, degraded visibility and hazardous travel conditions may be possible from blowing snow, especially over mountain passes. Snow comes to an end for both range by around midnight or so at the latest. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday.. The front is finally through us and will stay through us for Tuesday and Wednesday. We stay in southwest flow aloft as messy troughing sits out west. This pattern will keep temperatures cooler than normal, and it will keep precip chances over us as well. Models bring shortwave energy through the trough and over us on Tuesday, which will help to develop weak showers and thunderstorms over the high country on Tuesday afternoon, and better chances for widespread rain on the plains overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday. Daytime highs look to stay in the 60s both days, with decent chances for precipitation both days. Thursday Onwards.. Models are not in great agreement about the pattern late week onwards, but the general consensus suggests some type of northwest flow with a trough passing to our north. This looks to bring temperatures back into the near normal range for Thursday and Friday, with warmer than normal temperatures by the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast nearly every afternoon, especially across the high country. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 543 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 KALS: Gusty southwest winds will be in place throughout the day, gusting 25-30 knots this morning and closer to 45 knots by 16Z or so. With the strongest gusts, there will be a period late this morning through mid afternoon with the potential for periods of blowing dust and reduced visibility. After 22Z, there is also a low- end chance that rain showers will move off the terrain and pass bu the terminal, but chances are low enough to leave as PROB30 for now. KCOS: Winds will turn SE later this morning, gusting to 25 knots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move in from the north- northwest after 20Z or so, bringing precipitation and gusty outflow to the terminal. Outflow from storms will reach 35 knots or so. Precip departs the immediate area prior to 00Z, though gusty winds and MVFR-IFR cigs will remain the rest of the period. Winds will turn northerly later this afternoon as a frontal surge moves in. KPUB: MVFR to IFR conditions expected through the period. Winds turn ESE later this morning, with a lower-end chance for thunderstorms to pass by the terminal during the afternoon. Winds will generally gust to 25 knots or so, with any outflow from thunderstorms gusting to about 35 knots. Winds will turn north later in the day as a frontal surge moves in. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blowing Dust Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ069>071. High Wind Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ070-071. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for COZ084-085-095-096. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ230-233- 237. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO  013 FXUS61 KPHI 181716 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 116 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for the 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Unusual and potentially record setting early season heat is expected through Wednesday. High temperatures will generally be upward of 10 to 20 degrees above normal, with low to mid 90s expected for many areas today through Wednesday. 2. A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unusual and potentially record setting early season heat is expected through Wednesday. High temperatures will generally be upward of 10 to 20 degrees above normal, with low to mid 90s expected for many areas today through Wednesday. An upper level ridge will remain in place across the East Coast through Tuesday then shift offshore and weaken into Wednesday. This will bring a period of well above normal, summer-like temperatures which could challenge monthly all time records for May. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure will remain in place offshore as a low pressure system develops across the Plain, passing across the Great Lakes Tuesday and passing well to our north by Wednesday. This will result in a very warm south to southwesterly flow for several days. The warming trend that began over the weekend will continue into early this week. High temperature for inland areas today will be generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s for eastern PA, inland NJ and Delmarva. However, the flow be more out of the south to even southeast, so there will be more of cooling influence near the coast by the afternoon as the marine layer pushes inland. This cooling will extend a bit farther inland compared to Sunday given the surface flow direction. This will keep highs in these areas near the coast mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s, occurring around midday before cooling off into the afternoon and evening. Dewpoints should mix out a bit this afternoon due to a lack of deep moisture return, cool ocean temperatures, and low evapotranspiration, but will still be mainly in the low to mid 60s. Not terribly humid, but certainly uncomfortable since we aren't acclimated to it yet. The dewpoint values will translate to heat indices being close to the air temperatures. With temperatures getting into the mid 90s in the urban corridor, we've opted to start the Heat Advisory at noon today, though temperatures and heat indices will likely be hotter on Tuesday (more on that below). Given the likely bay breeze developing in Wilmington today, we've excluded New Castle County from the advisory. Mostly sunny skies today with scattered cirrus around. Can't rule out an isolated shower/storm in our western zones this afternoon, but this potential is low enough that we don't have much in the way of precip mentioned in the forecast. Temperatures tonight will be quite warm by mid May standards. Lows will only be in the mid 60s to low 70s, which will challenge daily warmest low temperature records for May 19th. Confidence continues to increase that Tuesday will be the hottest day across the region. Widespread temperatures in the mid 90s are expected. Even with many of the aforementioned factors keeping heat indicies close to air temperatures will continue into Tuesday, the hotter air temperatures will push heat indicies higher and exceed the early season criteria in the urban areas. Thus, the Heat Advisory will continue through Tuesday evening. The heat forecast remains a bit more uncertain for Wednesday, as a faster progression of an approaching front may bring more clouds ahead of the showers and storms, and cap temps and heat indices a bit lower.Regardless, it will still be abnormally warm and keep portions of the area close to record high temperatures, particularly near and southeast of I-95 where skies will remain clear the longest. The heat looks to break by Thursday following the cold frontal passage late Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate closer to normal for the remainder of the week and into next weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. As mentioned above, a cold front will approach the area Wednesday and bring an end to the stretch of above normal temperatures by Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front as it passes through the region. Recent guidance trends continue to show the front moving through during the second half of Wednesday into Wednesday night. At this range there is still uncertainties in timing, but if the front moves through during the day Wednesday, then the potential for stronger storms increases as there will be plenty of instability present. Currently, the better forcing looks to be displaced to the north of the front. All of this said, it remains still a bit early to get very specific on the details and extent of the convection, impacts, and hazards. The front then looks to linger nearby or just south of the area on Thursday leading to more potential for showers. By the end of the week and into next weekend, the trend continues to show a more unsettled pattern. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. This afternoon...VFR. South to southwest winds around 10 knots with some local gusts 15-20 knots at times (southeast winds especially at KILG, KMIV and KACY. Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR. South to southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. High confidence. Tuesday...VFR. Southwesterly winds 5-8 knots increasing to 10-15 knots, with some afternoon gusts up to 20 knots. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Tuesday night...VFR. Wednesday through Thursday...Sub-VFR with rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Rain showers may continue into Thursday. Friday...Sub-VFR possible with the chance for rain showers. && .MARINE... Southerly winds increase to around 10-15 kts, gusting up to 20 kts by this afternoon, but the conditions are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory levels. Seas around 3-4 feet. Winds and seas lessening some overnight. Outlook... Tuesday through Wednesday...Southwest winds increase through the day Tuesday with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by Tuesday afternoon as wind gusts reach near 25 kt. Seas look to start to reach near 5 feet as well Tuesday evening. Seas lessen by Wednesday morning but elevated winds out of the southwest remain through the day Wednesday with gusts near 25 kt. Showers and potentially some isolated thunderstorms move through Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night. Thursday...Conditions expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria by this time but showers may linger. Friday...Conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. There is the chance for some rain showers. Rip Currents... This afternoon, south-southeast winds will be 10 to 15 mph with breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet. There will be a southeasterly swell with a period of around 8 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk at Delaware Beaches where winds will be more shore parallel. Tuesday, south-southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph with breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet. A southeasterly swell will remain, though the period may be slightly shorter. For now, have opted for a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for all NJ and DE beaches. Important to note that while surface temperatures inland will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, and low to mid 90s Tuesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Near record breaking temperatures are forecast from today through Wednesday. High temperatures Tuesday and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthly all time records for May. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 97/May 30 & 31, 1991 Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, & May 31, 1991 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 18 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 96/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 93/1987 AC Marina (55N) 90/1987 Georgetown (GED) 91/1974 Mount Pocono (MPO) 87/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1986 Wilmington (ILG) 94/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 18 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 70/2017 AC Marina (55N) 66/2017 Georgetown (GED) 72/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/2017 Philadelphia (PHL) 72/2017 Reading (RDG) 67/1900, 1943, & 2017 Trenton (TTN) 71/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 72/2017 Record High Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 97/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1962 AC Marina (55N) 92/1998 Georgetown (GED) 96/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 73/2017 AC Marina (55N) 68/1998 Georgetown (GED) 73/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 Philadelphia (PHL) 74/1877 Reading (RDG) 68/1962 Trenton (TTN) 70/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2017 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996 AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ070-071-104-106. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ060>062- 070-071-101>106. NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001- 007>010-012-015-017>019. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ012>021-026-027. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ015-017>019. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AKL/Fitzsimmons/Staarmann AVIATION...AKL/Gorse/Staarmann MARINE...AKL/Staarmann  955 FXUS63 KUNR 181715 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of rain, with snow in Black Hills, is likely later tonight into Monday. - Much colder to start the week but warmer temps return by late week. - Low-end chances for rain return later this week. && .DISCUSSION...(Tonight Through Sunday) Issued at 1051 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Upper air analysis depicts upper trof digging into the Intermountain West with southwest flow across the Northern Plains. Water vapor imagery shows moisture associated with our next system making its way into the area. Precip chances will increase overnight across northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and southwestern SD as this system approaches from the southwest. Precip will overspread the region Monday as band of 850-700mb FGEN and plenty of available moisture sets up over much of the CWA. Expecting mainly rain over the western SD plains with snow over the Black Hills. Northeastern WY could see snow to start out with with a change over to rain in the afternoon as the day warms up. There's still some uncertainty as to where the strongest forcing (and therefore the highest precip amounts) will be, right now it looks like the greatest precip totals will be across the Northern Black Hills and southwestern SD into the western SD plains with total QPF amounts of up to 0.25 to 0.4 inches are likely. Froude numbers of around 1 and moist, northerly flow will support upslope snow across the northern Black Hills. However, given the time of year and the fact that the snow is going to be falling during the day, snow accumulations (especially on roadways) may be limited by melting. Therefore, anticipating slushy accumulations of up to 3-5", mainly on grassy sfcs and in the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Northeastern WY could also see light snow accumulations with this system though, again, the time of year and the fact that this will be occurring during the daytime will limit overall snow totals. Expecting around a trace to up to 2 inches with the highest amounts across southern Campbell County. Regardless of final snow amounts, the main thing to note is that much of the area will receive some much needed moisture. Below normal temps expected through early this week with lows tonight, Monday, and Tuesday nights dropping into the 20s to 30s. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for northeastern WY for early this morning as temps are expected to drop into the upper 20s. Additional Frost/Freeze headlines may be needed for Monday and Tuesday nights, but will hold off on issuance for now. Shortwave ridging develops by the mid-week and kick off a gradual warming trend for the rest of the week. Approaching upper trof then brings precip chances back to the CWA for the late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1114 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Precipitation and low clouds are crossing the region with MVFR/LIFR conditions. Local LIFR conditions may occur in/near the Black Hills due to snow. Conditions will slowly improve late this afternoon and evening. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong AVIATION...13  062 FXUS62 KMFL 181718 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 118 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 112 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through at least Tuesday evening as breezy easterly winds prevail. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Low-end chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm. Rain chances will remain elevated over the next several days. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 112 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Models and synoptic charts describe a relatively deep high pressure ridge still dominating the SE CONUS and the northern portions of the peninsula, while a weakening U/L low meanders around the Bahamas just east of Florida. Morning convective activity on radar looked very similar to the previous day with training of showers and embedded thunderstorms focusing over east/central Broward, and interior Miami-Dade counties, although rainfall rates have been lower so far. Convection is expected to continue to shift towards interior and west coast areas through the rest of this afternoon and early evening hours as the easterly flow keeps the Gulf breeze limited to the immediate west coastline. Thermodyn parameters remain favorable enough for possible strong to isolated severe cells to develop, including max SBCAPE around 3000 j/kg, MFL and model sounding PWATs close to 2", along with steep lapse rates through the late afternoon hours. Best chances for the strongest updrafts will again reside along collision boundaries, especially where the Gulf breeze meets the easterly flow. Similar scenario is expected on Tuesday, with the easterly flow dominating the Gulf breeze and favoring convection on the western half of SoFlo. However, slightly warmer temps aloft and hints of possible mid-lvl drier air intrusion may result in weaker cells. Nighttime lows should remain warm with mid-upper 70s near the coasts, and low 70s inland. High temperatures for Tuesday will again range from the mid-upper 80s in SE Florida, to low-mid 90s over SW Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Longwave ridging will be the dominant pattern aloft for the eastern CONUS during the middle portion of the week. Florida will find itself in between an H5 centroid to its west over the southern Gulf and an H5 centroid to its east near Bermuda. Within the overall ridging pattern, ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement of showing a cut off low meandering around the northern Caribbean just east of the Bahamas. This area of low pressure will provide increased forcing for storms over the Atlantic waters as several lobes of vorticity advect westward near the vicinity of the Florida coastline. Florida will remain under rich moisture through the period, but some deeper pockets look to raise PWATs to near 1.8 inches, which is within the 75th percentile for this time of year. At the surface, winds will remain mostly easterly, but wind speeds will be slightly weaker than in the beginning of the week as pressure gradients relax across the eastern seaboard. As a result of this predominant easterly flow, the Gulf breeze won't be able to advance as far east. This will result in most afternoon thunderstorm activity favoring interior and portions of southwest Florida each day. Overall, PoPs will generally be in the 30% to 40% range across the peninsula each day, with higher 55% to 65% PoPs along the sea breeze convergence zones. Main threats will be frequent lightning, locally heavy downpours, and gusty winds. Despite the cutoff low nearby, 500 mb heights will actually be between 586 to 589 dm across South Florida, which is near to slightly above average for this time of year. This will in turn lead to slightly above normal temperatures area wide, with high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. With moisture staying steady throughout the week, heat indices will remain in the upper 90s and lower 100s through the period as well. Zooming into the forecast a little bit, diurnal heating will drive most of these high temperatures each afternoon. But, with increased chances of showers moving onshore from the Gulfstream during the morning (particularly for the middle part of the week), cloud cover and rain may keep things cooler over certain spots during the day. Conversely, increased cloud cover and rain during the nighttime hours may suppress radiational cooling and keep things slightly warmer overnight. For the most part, widespread Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) is expected each day. However, long range ensembles are indicating that pressure heights will increase slightly as longwave ridging shifts east and the cut off low dissolves. This will result in warmer temperatures for the weekend, with the NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool showing a 40 to 50 percent chance of Major heat impacts for the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Periods of breezy/gusty easterly winds are still possible over the Atl terminals through around 00Z, then remaining moderate tonight. SHRA could still affect the Atl terminals through this evening, but the best chances for periods of MVFR/IFR cig/vis will happen at APF with thunderstorm activity developing along the west coast. VFR should then prevail after 00-01Z tonight, with another round of morning showers possible Tuesday, starting at the Atl terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A moderate to fresh easterly breeze will remain established across the local waters early this week. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each day with extra activity expected for the Gulf waters compared to the Atlantic waters. Periods of rough seas and gustier winds are expected in and around thunderstorm activity. Atlantic seas early this week are expected generally at 3-4 feet with Gulf seas of 2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A high risk for rip currents continues for all of the Atlantic beaches early this week as breezy onshore winds persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 87 77 88 / 30 40 20 20 West Kendall 75 89 74 89 / 30 50 10 30 Opa-Locka 77 88 77 89 / 30 40 20 20 Homestead 77 88 77 88 / 40 40 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 78 86 78 86 / 40 40 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 77 85 77 86 / 40 30 20 20 Pembroke Pines 78 90 78 90 / 30 30 20 20 West Palm Beach 77 86 77 86 / 40 30 10 20 Boca Raton 78 86 78 86 / 40 30 20 20 Naples 74 92 74 92 / 20 90 10 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....NMP AVIATION...17  071 FXUS62 KMLB 181718 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 118 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Isolated to scattered shower and storm development is forecast each afternoon across east central Florida through this week. - A Moderate HeatRisk is forecast to gradually spread across east central Florida late week and into the weekend due to warm temperatures; adequate hydration and breaks from the heat will be important for those spending extended periods of time outdoors. - High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at ALL central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Today-Tonight...Ridging over the western Atlantic maintains a ridge axis north of Florida, across the Southeast US today. Easterly winds prevail, increasing to around 15 mph this afternoon as the sea breeze develops, with wind gusts 20-25 mph. Rain chances begin to increase slightly south of Orlando (20-30%), as PWATs build from <1" to up to 1.4-1.6" by late afternoon. However, a dominant east coast sea breeze will continue to keep the highest PoPs confined to the western half of the peninsula. While moisture increases today, lingering dry air in the mid- levels maintains DCAPE values near 900-1000 J/kg across southern portions of the forecast area. Therefore, though this will discourage updraft development overall, a few strong wind gusts near 50 mph cannot be ruled out in any storms. 500 mb temperatures near -10 C could also lead to small hail. Peak chances will occur this afternoon, though a few to scattered showers and a storm or two will remain possible along the coast overnight as cells develop over the Atlantic and drift onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast. Highs in the upper 80s along the coast rise into the lower 90s over the interior. Warm overnight lows in the 70s will remain near 80 along the coast. Tuesday-Monday...High pressure remains off of the eastern US seaboard through the weekend and into early next week. The ridge axis remains well north of Florida, helping to fend off a cold front mid to late week. Meanwhile, an upper level low lingers near to north of the Bahamas. It's essentially a persistence forecast through the period, as onshore flow continues to prevail. The only changes are a slight shift to predominantly SE flow from E this weekend and an increase in moisture during the same timeframe. Therefore, expect isolated to scattered showers and storms each day through the end of the work week. A prevailing easterly sea breeze will increase winds to around 15 mph each afternoon, with gusts 20-25 mph. The daily sea breeze collision will favor the far interior, if not western half of the peninsula. Thus, that is where the highest rainfall chances are for the afternoons and into the evening hours. However, could see overnight showers and perhaps a storm drift onshore each night, mainly along the Treasure Coast, as they develop over the Atlantic waters. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels will inhibit updraft development, but could lead to a few strong wind gusts (~50 mph) in any storms that manage to develop, especially along the collision. Models are in good agreement that a slug of moisture (PWATs 1.7-1.8") will overspread the peninsula along SE flow late in the period. PoPs respond accordingly, increasing from 30-50% to 50-70% for Memorial Day Weekend. However, still plenty of time to watch how things unfold. Regardless, high temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90 this week, while onshore flow keeps lows in the 70s, possibly near 80 along the immediate coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 182026 High pressure remains offshore from the eastern US coast through the work week, with the ridge axis well north of the local area. Thus, onshore flow will continue through the period, increasing to around 10-15 kts each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions, with the exception of this evening into Tuesday morning, when winds across the offshore waters increase to 15-20 kts and seas build to 5 ft. Otherwise, seas 2-4 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each day, though onshore flow will prevent any drift back towards the east coast. Instead, the best chances for the Atlantic waters are expected during the evening and overnight hours, when cells may occasionally drift onshore. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Continued SHRA/TS on the Treasure Coast this afternoon, but activity should gradually diminish. Otherwise, deep ESE flow up to 15 kt continues with VFR prevailing. Few additional showers around DAB/TIX are favored in the guidance late tonight. Low confidence if this makes it into MCO tomorrow morning/midday, will need to monitor trends. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 High pressure remains over the western Atlantic through this week, with the ridge axis well north of the local area. Onshore flow will prevail, increasing to 10 to 15 mph, with gusts 20 to 25 mph, each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon, with moisture increasing into the weekend. While onshore flow will keep most of the area well above any RH concerns, min RH west of Orlando could fall to between 45 to 50% during the heat of the day through much of the work week. Conditions will be fire sensitive in the afternoons, due to breezy winds and occasional lightning strikes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 86 74 87 / 20 20 10 20 MCO 73 89 73 89 / 10 30 10 30 MLB 77 85 77 86 / 20 20 10 20 VRB 77 87 77 87 / 20 20 10 20 LEE 72 90 72 90 / 0 30 10 30 SFB 73 89 72 90 / 10 20 10 30 ORL 73 89 73 89 / 10 30 10 30 FPR 76 86 76 86 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wishard AVIATION...Heil  078 FXUS64 KJAN 181718 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1218 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week. - Isolated severe storms are possible in the northwest Tuesday. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Rest of today and tonight... The region remains on the western periphery of subtropical ridge parked just east of the Atlantic seaboard and amplified mean troughing, with the center over the Rockies. The cold core and attendant surface low/frontal system will eject into the northern Plains to Great Lakes region tonight. With warm/moist advection (thermal profiles at 850mb in the mid to upper teens and PWs of 1.5 to 1.75 inches along and west of Interstate 55), increased cloud coverage and isolated to scattered rain and storm chances will be possible across southern to southwest MS and northeast LA this afternoon into early evening. GOES East and observed soundings to the east indicate drier thermal profiles (1.0 to 1.2 inch PWs), so rain chances should remain low to non-existent. Seasonable warmth is expected today, some 4F to 8F above (highs: 86F to 91F). Thermodynamic parameters remain sufficient (7.0 deg C mid level lapse rates;25C to 28C vertical totals; MLCAPE (800-1200J/kg) and SBCAPE (1200-2000J/kg). Deep shear (20 to 25kts) that could support some strong storms in the west this afternoon to evening but confidence in severe storms remains low. This has a feel of a typical diurnal summertime storm afternoon, but a rogue multicell storm or microburst cannot be ruled out. Return flow of low level moisture will bring some low clouds and visibility reductions. Probabilities remain low for dense fog and some light wind will be present. Thus, no mention is needed in HWO just patchy visibility reductions in the Pine Belt by daybreak. Forecast was shipped out earlier. Lows will be seasonably warm, some 10F to 15F above (70F to 72F east of I-55 to 73F to 75F along and west of I-55). /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Through Tonight: Continued warmer than normal through the period with afternoon rain chances limited to the southern half of the CWA. Surface ridging from the east will remain across the Gulf coast states while our flow aloft remains southwesterly downstream of an upper level trough swinging across the Four Corners region. This will help maintain a warm moist airmass over our CWA. Latest PWATs were running just above an inch and three quarters with surface dew points being observed in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Wl start off with some patchy fog in the southeast but daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and mainly south of Interstate 20. The distinct diurnal nature of the convection will result in the convection dying off rapidly around sunset. The probabilities of fog development are lower for Tuesday morning but patchy light early morning fog is possible in the southeast again. /22/ Tuesday through Sunday: A frontal boundary will continue to progress towards the southeast before stalling north of the CWA. Ongoing showers and storm chances are expected through the extended period. Highs (ranging in the 80s) will remain near seasonal averages and lows (upper 60s/near 70 degrees) will run +5-8 degrees above seasonal averages over the extended as well. Precip chances ranging from 40% to 95% with greatest chances on Wednesday (95%) and Friday (90%) with 80-95% are likely. On Tuesday, the boundary gradually push into the area, interaction with the present deep-layer shear and CAPE near the MS Delta, may promote a few severe storms in the area. As a result, a 'Marginal' risk for severe weather will be possible over the MS Delta region Tuesday. A HWO graphic will be introduced to reflect the severe risk area. As the boundary stalls, multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse the region, providing addition moisture and increasing rain chances Wednesday into the weekend. Organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be as favorable, however, an isolated severe storm or two may be possible. Estimate rainfall amounts may range from 1.0-3.5 inches over the course of this week and the weekend. Received rainfall will help alleviate the ongoing drought over the ArkLaMiss region. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites this afternoon and into this evening. An isolated thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out during the late afternoon hours, but these will quickly dissipate around sunset. If observed on-site, a reduction in flight categories to MVFR/IFR status will be possible. Another bout of MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible at sites mainly along south of the Interstate 20 corridor early Tuesday morning, with a reduction of visibilities to MVFR/IFR status around day break due to patchy fog at namely KPIB and KHBG. Through Tuesday morning, categories will steadily improve to VFR status as both patchy fog and low stratus erode. Breezy southerly winds will subside a bit this evening to between 3-8 knots. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 89 70 86 / 10 40 50 70 Meridian 71 90 68 88 / 10 20 30 30 Vicksburg 74 90 70 84 / 10 40 60 90 Hattiesburg 72 89 69 89 / 0 20 0 40 Natchez 75 90 71 85 / 20 50 60 90 Greenville 74 91 70 83 / 10 40 60 90 Greenwood 75 91 70 84 / 20 30 70 90 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/SW/19  205 FXUS62 KTAE 181720 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 120 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected through mid week. There is a high chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without cooling/hydration. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms will return mid to late week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that develop. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Upper ridge will remain draped through the southeast US through Tuesday while an upper trough digs southward to off the western Baja coast. The slug of moisture aiding convection development today along I75 will drift west towards the eastern Panhandle and southeast Alabama Monday while drier air (PWATS <1 inch) moves in from the Atlantic. Therefore, rain chances will be favored in our western zones Monday while the remainder of the tri-state area will be mostly dry. Much like today, thunderstorms that develop will be capable of gusty to strong winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Tuesday will continue the dry trend with minimal chances for rainfall. Upper ridge weakens beginning Wednesday as an upper low develops and translates west into the Bahamas. Moisture starts a gradual return Wednesday as well as rain chances on the GCSB. Meanwhile, a cold front will sit between the upper trough out west and the weakening ridge out east which will gradually stall to our north through northern Alabama and Georgia later this week. In response, winds turn more southerly which will be more favorable for development on the GCSB in the afternoon then interactions with the westward moving ECSB late afternoons and evenings. The front gradually weakens this weekend as the upper ridge strengthens once again and the Bahamas upper low gets shunted south. Rain chances gradually increase from 20-40% Thursday to 30-60% by next Sunday. Temperatures are fairly persistent with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the drier air and lower rain chances Tuesday through Thursday, this will be the hottest timeframe through next weekend. There is even a low chance for meeting or exceeding 95F in the Florida Big Bend and heat indices approaching 100F as well in isolated locations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A couple of showers and storms will be possible between KECP and KDHN this afternoon and early evening. Some low stratus may develop near KVLD in the early morning hours, but confidence is a bit on the lower side. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Light to moderate east to southeast winds will continue through midweek as high pressure ridging remains draped across the Gulf waters. Easterly surges in the overnight hours will cause a slight uptick in winds, perhaps briefly reaching cautionary levels. Ridging weakens later this week as a cold front reaches the Mid South causing winds to become southerly. Chances increase for shower and thunderstorm activity across the Gulf waters next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 High dispersions are expected today across the Suwannee Valley and I- 75 corridor as mixing heights climb to near 7,000 feet with easterly transport winds around 10 mph. Elsewhere, winds will be more southerly to southeasterly, but mixing heights will be lower, yielding good dispersions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in the eastern Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama as the seabreeze develops and pushes inland. A relatively dry period is on tap Tuesday through Thursday before better moisture arrives and rain chances gradually increase into the weekend. Good afternoon dispersions each day towards the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 92 70 92 / 0 10 10 20 Panama City 70 87 70 87 / 0 10 0 20 Dothan 67 89 68 90 / 0 10 0 30 Albany 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 20 Valdosta 66 92 67 92 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 69 94 69 94 / 0 40 10 20 Apalachicola 73 83 73 83 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for FLZ112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Young  249 FXUS66 KMTR 181721 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1021 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1147 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions, especially across the North, East, and South Bay Mountains and the Santa Cruz Mountains through today - Hazardous beach conditions through this morning - Hazardous marine conditions expected through today - Elevated fire weather concerns continue through today across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts && .UPDATE... Issued at 842 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Gusty offshore winds continue through this morning with winds gradually easing this afternoon/evening. The Wind Advisory remains on track to expire at 11AM PDT across the higher elevations. Notably, the current hourly temperatures are running 6-7 degrees above what the current forecast has. This is likely due to the stronger offshore (NE) winds bringing in warmer and drier air, with some additional warming from downsloping occurring at the base of the mountains. Bumped temperatures up using the NBM90th percentile to better account for the already warmer temperatures observed this morning. This puts the interior into the 80s to low 90s today with the coast staying in the 70s. Winds don't look to switch onshore again until after peak heating (3/4PM) so would not expect much marine influence on today's high temperatures outside of the direct coastline. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1147 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (Tonight through Monday) An upper level low pressure system digs into the tri-state area of CO, UT, and WY by late Monday morning. We remain under the influence of the broader trough associated with it, leading to breezy offshore flow. North to northeast winds pick up tonight across the Santa Cruz Mountains, the interior North Bay Mountains, and the Eastern Santa Clara and East Bay Hills. Sustained wind speeds of 15 to 30 mph along with gusts up to 50 mph, though localized gusts up to 60 mph are expected for favored ridges, gaps, and passes. These winds will usher in drier air to the region as well, keeping the fire weather threat elevated for interior Bay Area and Central Coast locations. In terms of more every day hazards from the winds, impacts include, but are not limited to difficult driving, especially for high profile vehicles, downed tree limbs, the potential for power outages, and the possibility of loose or unsecured items being blown around. Winds begin to ease late Monday morning into the afternoon and will continue to decrease into the evening and overnight hours. Offshore winds should bring some warmer temperatures to the region, the 90s for the interior Bay Area valleys, the 60s to low 70s along the coast, and the mid 70s to low 80s for the Central Coast Valleys. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1147 PM PDT Sun May 17 2026 (Tuesday through next Sunday) Upper level troughing looks to hold just west of the Desert Southwest and into southern CA Tuesday into Wednesday, leaving us with teetering between quasi-zonal and barely trough-y. Weak offshore lingers at least over the interior mountain ranges through Tuesday into Wednesday, with onshore flow trying to make a diurnally driven push each afternoon/evening. During this time high pressure just to the west of us (over the eastern Pacific) builds, pushing towards the coast mid week. The upper level trough begins to meander south to southwest of southern California late week. This should bring a return of onshore flow to the region and perhaps the marine layer. Current guidance suggests we could see a 500ft marine layer return by Wednesday, with a 1000-1200ft marine layer by Thursday and Friday. Will need to keep an eye on this as it will affect how temperatures pan out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Breezy and gusty northeast winds will gradually diminish through the next couple of hours as an onshore push returns to the coastal regions this afternoon, with the coastal breeze continuing through the evening. Breezy winds will continue across the interior mountains of the Bay Area through the night, with northeast winds spreading across the interior valleys Tuesday morning towards the end of the 24-hour TAF period. Beyond that, Tuesday's coastal breezes look to be stronger than today's. Vicinity of SFO... VFR conditions through the TAF period. Breezy and gusty northeast winds will turn more northwesterly through the afternoon, before diminishing through the evening and remaining light overnight through Tuesday morning. West-northwest winds will resume on Tuesday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions through the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds will develop imminently and continue into the evening. Winds remain light overnight before resuming Tuesday afternoon after the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1021 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Winds continue to diminish throughout the marine environment, but moderate to rough seas and moderate to fresh northwest breezes will still offer hazardous conditions for small craft into the mid weak before easing for most zones. Fresh to strong northwest breezes will remain hazardous for small craft into the late week for the northern outer zone. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 449 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Strong and gusty north to northeast winds continue to affect the region. Expect peak gusts greater than 30 mph for most areas, with around 45 to 55 mph along through gaps and passes, and across higher terrain. These winds will begin to reduce in the late morning but remain breezy until the late night. Daytime humidity retentions loos to stay around 10- 25% across the interior regions and higher peaks, with limited overnight humidity recoveries. Humidities will be slow to recover into the work week as a light offshore flow will continue to affect the district. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ504-512-514- 515. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  338 FXUS63 KTOP 181723 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1223 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous severe storms are expected late this afternoon over north central Kansas, spreading across northeast Kansas this evening and overnight. Threats include very large hail (2-4+ inches in diameter), Damaging wind gusts to 80 mph, flash flooding, and tornadoes (a few strong). - A Flood Watch is in effect for all of northeast and north central Kansas where antecedent heavy rainfall has enhanced the threat for flash flooding this evening. - After cooler and dry conditions Tue. and Wed., storm chances return with the highest being on Thursday. Widespread severe probabilities are low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Active early Monday morning as a decaying line of slow moving thunderstorms impacts portions of northeast and east central Kansas. Overall threat has shifted to heavy rainfall as hourly rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches have been observed. Totals have currently ranged from 1 to 5 inches with the highest amounts focused over north central Kansas. As the low level jet wanes, activity is anticipated to dissipate by mid morning, leaving the stratus in place and potentially an outflow boundary in far eastern Kansas to MO. How quickly the atmosphere recovers in eastern Kansas is uncertain, potentially generating scattered severe storms by mid afternoon. Confidence in this scenario is somewhat bolstered by the last few runs of the HRRR/RAP, forming convection south of I-70 and east of I-35. Forecast soundings in vicinity of this outflow boundary exhibit strong low and mid level wind shear and elevated CAPE up to around 3000 J/KG. If this occurs, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out earlier in the afternoon. Overall confidence for the above scenario is low-medium, owning to timing and location inconsistencies of current convection and where the boundary settles by midday. In terms of the main severe weather setup, no major changes were noted in forecast trends as the moderate severe risk from SPC remains centered from the Flint Hills region to the Kansas/Nebraska border. Negatively tilted upper trough axis across the Four Corners Region is anticipated to eject into the western high plains between 21Z-00Z. At this time, dryline/cold front is oriented southwest to northeast over north central Kansas as rich low level moisture raises dewpoints into the low 70s pooling just ahead of the stalled boundary. In addition clouds are anticipated to scatter out by late afternoon, resulting in SFC CAPE exceeding 5000 J/KG amid minimal inhibition. Strong convergence along the front is sufficient for discreet convection to form in the 3-5 PM timeframe over north central Kansas. Initial severe storms will be most intense in terms of very large hail (2-4+ inches diameter) and strong tornadoes, especially as the low level jet strengthens in the early evening. The strong tornado threat persists into the early evening with any discrete supercells. Bulk shear vectors parallel to the front suggest discrete cells transition to a line of storms around 7 PM. Main hazards with the squall line are damaging wind gusts to 80 mph , brief tornadoes along the leading edge, and large hail as they quickly translate east southeast through eastern Kansas. Forward propagating corfidi vectors are weak (20 kts) while PWAT values increase above 1.5 inches and low/mid level moisture saturates the column. Given the several inches of rainfall that occurred the last evening, decided to expand the Flood Watch to cover the entire forecast area through Tuesday morning. Estimated rainfall totals tonight range from 2 to 5 inches, increasing the likelihood for localized flash flooding. Activity exits into Missouri between 3 and 6 AM Tuesday. Much cooler airmass settles in behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as highs only peak in the middle to upper 60s. Showers and isolated storm chances return by Thursday as broad upper troughing amplifies to the north and west. However, given the influence from sfc ridge to the northeast and lack of good return moisture, the overall severe threat is low. Better dynamics return by Friday evening, signaling the possibility for strong storms in the Kansas region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Confidence is increasing in thunderstorm potential in the 23Z-04Z window and went ahead with TEMPO inclusion. MVFR cloud should diminish soon but be more consistent after FROPA around 06Z with some chance for improvement late in the forecast. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Record High Temperature Monday May 18 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 94 (1975) 87 Concordia 94 (1967, 1988) 84 Record Warm Low Temperature Monday May 18 Record (Year) Forecast Topeka 71 (1911) 68 Concordia 72 (1911) 61 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011- KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035- KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058- KSZ059. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037- KSZ038-KSZ054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Poage CLIMATE...Griesemer  374 FXUS63 KDLH 181724 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1224 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of strong to severe storms Monday with timing most likely being overnight once again. Threats are hail, winds, and tornadoes. Heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding will also be possible. - Colder air returns Tuesday and Wednesday, a Freeze Warning may be needed for Tuesday night. - Next chance for precipitation will be this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Early this morning, the initial wave of storms moving through the Northland has weakened and these storms are no longer expected to be severe. However, general showers and standard thunderstorms will continue rolling through the region into the mid to late morning hours. As we head into this afternoon and evening, another round of showers and storms is possible, primarily focusing on the northwest Wisconsin area. Cloud cover and cooler temperatures are expected to keep a firm inversion in place for most of the area. This inversion will heavily limit the potential for tornadoes north of where the environment destabilizes, mainly across central Wisconsin. The potential for large hail and damaging winds remains a threat with the strongest storms. Additionally, flooding still remains a concern due to the potential for training storms along the cold front. Fortunately, the front seems to move fast enough that any flooding issues will remain isolated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Strong easterly flow envelops the region today with cloud cover increasing. Radar shows areas of weak echoes across western MN and NW WI. Reports thus far have not yielded much in way of rainfall yet and will likely still take some time for this rain to make it to the surface. Especially with how dry the morning sounding was for INL. We are seeing some noticeable areas of isentropic ascent ahead of the approaching warm front though. These surges are over both the Red River Valley and into NW WI which will likely be our best chances for this initial batch of rain before the main system ramps up later tonight. That being said rain chances through the afternoon are 20-30%. Tonight: The main show is expected to arrive later tonight. An inverted trough moving across the Northern Plains will transition into the primary low pressure system with a strong cold front trailing into the Central Plains. Severe storms are expected to develop in SW SD this afternoon. Through the evening hours the low pressure will advance NE towards NW WI. A strong low level jet will help to sustain the ongoing convection and drive the activity into the Northland. Storm mode as it moves into our region will be linear with damaging winds being the primary hazard. Large hail can't be ruled out as well but the more favorable lapse rates don't line up well with the current progression of the storms. Tornado threat also looks low as surface based convection tied to the cold front looks to stay south of the region. Overall timing for the worst conditions look to move in after 9PM and exit to the east after 4AM. Primary impact areas align with where SPC has their severe weather outlook. Clipping the Brainerd Lakes area with NW WI mostly likely seeing the lion's share of the activity. Rain totals with the main band of storms could range from 0.50-1.00" with PWATs over 1.25" some storms could produce totals over 1.50" Monday: Monday's set up will heavily depend on the progression of the previous nights frontal boundary. The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance is in decent agreement with stalling out the frontal boundary over NW WI. SPC severe outlook has the marginal risk draped across NW WI and sliding southwest into southern MN. This outline essentially highlights the most likely warm sector in which we have potential for the atmosphere to reload on instability for strong to severe storms once again. Areas west of this could still see some rain development as a mid level trough pivots across the Northern Plains, but thunderstorm potential is not as great. High res guidance is once again suggesting a late night threat with linear storm mode. With the cold front being much closer to the region some storms may become tied to the surface allowing for some surface vorticity ingestion. All modes of severe will be in play with QLCS tornadoes not out of the question. Activity may ramp up as early as 7PM with some discrete cells forming in the warm sector initially. The linear storm is currently projected to move in after 9PM and out of the region by 3AM with some lingering showers. Additionally, localized flooding may become a concern. Heavy rainfall rates may impact areas already inundated from the previous round of storms. Tuesday/Wednesday: High pressure will start to move in from the west on Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Remnant moisture from the departing system with cyclonic flow aloft could still lead to some scattered showers. Tuesday night will sport some very chilly temperatures with a Freezing Warning likely being needed for most of the Northland. Temperatures rebound a bit on Wednesday as surface high pressure saunters off to the east. Highs will climb back into the 50s and 60s. End of the Work Week: With the departure of high pressure Thursday will see southerly flow returning to the Northland. Highs continue to trend back up with widespread afternoon temps expected to reach the 60s. Cluster analysis shows an upper level trough moving out of the Rockies once again which will prompt increased chances for precipitation. At this time we are carrying 20-30% chance of rain to end the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Widespread IFR/LIFR stratus clouds engulf most of the region this afternoon with a surface low over SE MN. Ceilings are not expected to improve through the day as a baroclinic zone is laid across the Upper Midwest. Later this evening showers and some storms are expected to develop and move northeast through the region. This activity will move off to the northeast tomorrow morning with gusty northwest winds filtering in behind. Ceilings may be slow to improve tomorrow. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters this morning due to elevated northeast winds and waves. Northeast winds will ramp up again late tonight, bringing gusts up to 25 knots and building waves to 4 to 8 feet. Winds will eventually shift to the northwest by Tuesday afternoon, allowing waves to gradually subside. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns through the early part of the week. A high pressure returns for the mid week and low minimum RHs in the 30s return once again. Gusty winds will subside briefly during the day today, but will increase once again out of the north to northwest overnight. These winds will continue into Tuesday, with sustained winds to 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...KML DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Britt MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  366 FXUS64 KMRX 181723 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 123 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 108 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Very warm temperatures are expected early this week with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal. - Increasing chances for showers and storms return Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day from Thursday through the weekend especially across the higher elevations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Main weather feature for Monday and Tuesday will remain an upper ridge over the southeast United States into the southern Appalachians. Main impact will be mostly dry and unseasonably very warm temperatures. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. For Wednesday, ensemble cluster analysis shows a short-wave trough moving across the Great Lakes and upper Ohio valley. This wave will begin to weaken the upper ridge over the region and allow a frontal boundary to approach the area. Surface ridging will also weaken across the southeast United States allowing for slightly better moisture return. Lower heights and better PWs will allow for increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms especially over the Plateau counties. Instability with remain marginal with CAPES of 1000-1500, mid-level lapse rates of 6 degrees or less with little to no shear. At this time severe storms are not anticipated. For Thursday, frontal boundary remains near the region with PWs of 1.5-1.7 inches so moisture returns over the area. Instability and shear remain limited with little to no severe threat, but fairly good coverage of showers and storms with much needed rainfall. QPF for Wednesday through Thursday will range from 0.10 to 0.50 inch. For Friday, frontal boundary lifts north as an upper trough/jet moves northeast into the mid-west and Ohio valley producing pressure falls there. The increase in southerly boundary jet will pull frontal boundary north. Plenty of moisture and instability remains so scattered showers and thunderstorms developing into the afternoon especially across the terrain features. For Saturday and Sunday, the southern Appalachians will remain with plenty of moisture and afternoon instability with upper ridge building back into the region. More typical warm and muggy conditions are expected. Ensemble QPF and WPC depicts from 1 to 1.5 inches across much of the area from Wednesday through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecasts. Winds will be gusty up to 20 kts possible this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 89 66 87 / 0 10 10 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 90 67 87 / 0 0 10 70 Oak Ridge, TN 65 88 64 86 / 0 0 10 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 88 63 86 / 0 0 0 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...DH  469 FXUS61 KRNK 181727 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 127 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Multiple chances for rainfall is expected, with a cold front that is expected to stall across the area starting Wednesday. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: The heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday before cooler weather returns late week. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation following the cold front on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1:The heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday before cooler weather returns late week. Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through Wednesday due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic. Although moisture at the surface has increased due to this flow, an upper-level ridge has also strengthened and is suppressing convection due to the drier air aloft. This synoptic setup will allow temperatures to remain 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year, with highs in the 80s for the mountains, and low to mid 90s for the Piedmont today and Tuesday. Temperatures are already in the low 90s in parts of the Piedmont just after midday. Therefore, some record highs may be in jeopardy today and tomorrow. A cold front approaches the area on Wednesday, which will keep highs a few degrees cooler in the mountains, though still in the 80s as showers/storms move in late in the day. However, ahead of the front in the Piedmont, highs will likely reach the mid 90s. Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this heat wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have been over 90 degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing to help reduce the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat arrives by Thursday, once the cold front moves into the area, with much cooler weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation following the cold front on Wednesday. A Bermuda high pressure looks to develop and remain quasi- stationary across the western Atlantic through the beginning of next week. This will maintain southerly flow and a summer like pattern in place across the region as moisture is advected north into the Southeast from the Gulf and Atlantic. As moisture finally moves into the region, PWATs generally look to recover into the 1.0-1.5 inch range areawide. With ongoing drought conditions, these conditions bode well for multiple rain opportunities over the next week or so starting Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across the region. With these shear and instability values, some hail and damaging wind gusts can't be ruled out across the area. With this potential, SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for portions of central Virginia on Wednesday. By Thursday, this frontal boundary looks to stall across the region providing some forcing for ascent across the region. The presence of mid level disturbances progressing east along the frontal boundary combined with a southward sagging 250mb jet streak looks to increase deep layer shear slightly on Thursday. This may lead to another day with possible severe weather chances as instability looks to remain elevated as well. Beyond Thursday, the aforementioned Bermuda high looks to continue to remain over the western Atlantic, which will keep the moist airmass over the Southeast. Mid-level disturbances look to continue to slide east over the region, which will keep rain chances in the forecast each day through the weekend and into the early portion of next week, likely bringing much needed and beneficial rainfall to the area. While its hard to imagine currently with the drought, if the area does receive repeated heavy rainfall, during this period, the flash flood threat may increase across the area; however, these chances will need to be monitored through the week as these systems move over the region. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... With dewpoints remaining low through Tuesday morning, early morning fog doesn't look as likely to develop at LWB like it has the last two mornings. Given this dry trend, fog has not been included in the TAFs at this time for LWB. Therefore, VFR conditions are expected to remain at all terminals through the TAF forecast period. Winds will generally remain out of the south/southwest through the TAF period at around 10 knots or less. Wind gusts the next two afternoons looks to increase to around 15-20 knots at all terminals. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will keep the weather quiet and conditions VFR through the beginning of the week outside of any river valley fog that may develop. This river valley fog may lead to some brief periods of restrictions due to lowering VSBYs at LWB. More widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected starting Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Rain and storm chances and cloud cover linger through the end of the week with the system possibly stalling across the area. This may lead to sub-VFR conditions through the end of the work week. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Monday, May 18, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 94 in 1962 69 in 1996 94 Lynchburg 93 in 1911 68 in 1894 93 Danville 93 in 1974 69 in 2015 94 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 2015 86 Blacksburg 88 in 1911 61 in 2018 90 Tuesday, May 19, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 96 in 1962 69 in 2022 94 Lynchburg 93 in 1962 66 in 2022 93 Danville 95 in 1962 69 in 1962 95 Bluefield 89 in 1911 66 in 1977 86 Blacksburg 91 in 1911 61 in 1938 90 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB/JCB AVIATION...EB CLIMATE...RCS  477 FXUS63 KLMK 181727 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 127 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Today through Tuesday, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s. Some daily max temperature records could be challenged. * This afternoon/evening, showers and/or thunderstorms arrive, especially for our northwestern counties. * A line of strong to severe storms is expected to move through ahead of a cold front on Tuesday, possibly bringing strong winds and hail. The line will weaken as it moves east over the region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 509 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Today, a closed low within an upper trough is located near the Four Corners. East of the trough, southwest flow stretch over the Plains before meeting an upper ridge flowing through the Great Lakes and New England regions. The Lower Ohio Valley sits under this ridge with gusty (20-25 mph) southerly winds being driven by a pressure gradient between a surface high over the Southeast and low pressure that stretches from the western Plains into the Midwest. This sit-up is expected to provide lots of sunshine and WAA to drive high temperatures into the mid 80s to low 90s throughout southern Indiana and central Kentucky. By this afternoon, the southern low level winds will not only drive temperatures warmer, but they will also lift precipitable water values to 1.75-2" over western Kentucky north into western Indiana, and as the remnants of the system currently over Iowa drift southeast towards the CWA, it will have this moisture rich unstable environment to work with to bring showers and thunderstorm to southern Indiana. Moisture is expected to quickly drop off south of the Ohio River, so most of the activity is expected to remain in southern Indiana, and the best chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will be in the far northwestern parts of the CWA, including Dubois County, where thunderstorms could develop ahead of the approaching line. With MLCAPE values around 1,600 J/kg, MUCAPE values near 2,300 J/kg, an inverted "V" sounding with LCLs near 1 km, strong winds and hail could be possible. Deep layer shear is weak around 25 knots, so this could possibly help some hail to melt as it fall back through the column, reducing its size. The high PWATs will also likely drive intense rainfall which could cause ponding of water. There is a limited window for any stronger storms as instability is expected to quickly drop to the southeast. Tonight, any remaining showers and thunderstorms are expected to dissipate. Continued WAA with some cloud cover will help limit cooling, keeping low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 509 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Tomorrow, ahead of an approaching cold front, temperatures are expected to once again climb into the upper 80s to low 90s with another day of gusty WAA. This is expected to drive very high instability in the area of SPC's "Slight" risk. Some areas over southern Indiana could see MLCAPE values near 2,500 J/kg and MUCAPE values near 3,000 J/kg. This would help an expected line of convection ahead of the front to generate strong gusty winds and possibly large hail before weakening as the system pushes off to the east. Current timing has the line reaching Dubois county during the early afternoon. In the following hours, the line would push east through southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Tuesday night, the cold front is expected to reach our southern Indiana counties, but it could be slow getting through central Kentucky, not making it through the CWA until sometime on Wednesday. The front will slowly veer winds towards the north. Temperatures will remain mild Tuesday night falling into the mid to upper 60s, but Wednesday's highs can be expected to see some relief only making it to the mid 70s near Jasper, Indiana to the mid 80s near Clinton County. This will be near normal for many across the CWA. The slow moving front will keep shower and thunderstorm chances across the CWA through Wednesday, but strong storms aren't expected. On Thursday, highs are expected to be slightly below normal, in the low to mid 70s for most. Far southern Kentucky could see the upper 70s. Enjoy it because temperatures begin to inch back up day by day into the mid 80s by Sunday. Precipitation chances remain low but remain as the front sits south of the CWA. Another low pressure system could swing through on Friday, brining a better chance for widespread rain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 127 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected for central Kentucky through this forecast period. Currently, FEW Cu clouds are streaming over eastern Kentucky and convective debris clouds are moving into southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Gusty winds out of the SSW will continue through the afternoon. A decaying line of showers and storms will enter southern Indiana in the next few hours. This will mostly impact southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky. Storms will begin to dissipate as the sun sets. Gusty winds will pick back up out of the SSW on Tuesday morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...SRW  548 FXUS61 KBOX 181729 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 129 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence of record heat Tuesday for parts of southern New England && .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures near the coast today but continued very warm in the interior. - Record heat likely Tuesday for portions of SNE with hot conditions lingering into Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon with better chance for scattered strong to severe storms on Wednesday. - Cooler, more seasonable temperatures late in the week. Increasing risk for showers next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler temperatures near the coast today but continued very warm in the interior. Weak backdoor front slides south of the coast early this morning. This shallow boundary is expected to lift back to the north this afternoon or mix out as winds become southerly. Highs in the interior will soar into the 80s again, warmest in the CT valley where upper 80s to near 90 is possible as 925 mb temps increase to 22-23C. Sea-breezes will keep coastal locations mostly in the 70s. Bulk of the instability this afternoon will be to the west but some instability is forecast to get into western MA/CT where a spot shower is possible. Otherwise dry weather. KEY MESSAGE 2...Record heat likely Tuesday for portions of SNE with hot conditions lingering into Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon with better chance for scattered strong to severe storms on Wednesday. An anomalous upper level ridge builds over the region Tue with rather warm low level temps. 850 mb temps are 2-3SD above normal which is close to the maximum relative to CFSR climatology for this time of year suggesting very anomalous heat. Actual 850 mb temps forecast to be 18-20C with 925 mb temps 24-26C. This suggests highs in the mid 90s away from the south coast with potential for some upper 90s in the CT valley. SW flow will keep temps in the upper 70s and low 80s along the immediate south coast. Dewpoints are forecast to reach lower 60s but with mixing could drop into the 50s in the interior which would keep heat indices below advisory criteria. This is our first heat of the season, so be sure to use caution and hydrate/cool accordingly. Despite upper ridge breaking down and becoming suppressed to the south, another hot day Wed as thermal ridge ahead of cold front lingers across SNE. Low level temps cool slightly and more cloud cover expected but still hot with highs 90-95 away from the south coast. Moderate instability is expected to develop Tue afternoon with CAPES 1000-2000+ J/kg. While large scale forcing is limited under the ridge there is a weak shortwave on the periphery of the ridge that approaches so can't rule out a few storms Tue afternoon in unstable environment. Deep layer shear is relatively weak but localized strong gusts are possible in any storms given inverted V profile. The greater risk for t-storms will be Wed afternoon as cold front moves into the region which is favorable timing to take advantage of diurnal max in instability along with deeper moisture profile. Deep layer shear values are more favorable for storm organization so can't rule out scattered strong to severe storms with damaging wind the primary risk although high PWAT airmass will support localized downpours and heavy rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler, more seasonable temperatures late in the week. Increasing risk for showers next weekend. Cooler airmass behind the cold front for Thu and Fri with near seasonable or slightly below temps. High pres builds in for the end of the week bringing dry conditions. Then the high retreats next weekend with a frontal boundary approaching from the south and ensemble guidance suggest increasing risk for showers next weekend but details are uncertain. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: Mainly VFR conditions through Wed. However, stratus and fog will likely develop over the ocean as SW flow brings higher dewpoints over cooler ocean and this may impact portions of the south coast and Cape/Islands tonight. LLWS risk for all terminals tonight heading into early Tue morning. Isolated t-storms possible Tue afternoon, but uncertain on if they will impact any terminals. E-NE wind becoming S 10-20 kt this afternoon. S-SW wind 5-10 kt tonight increasing Tue with gusts to 25 kt developing. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. Seabreeze today with wind shift to S late today or early evening. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. SHRA likely, isolated TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday through Friday: VFR. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. SHRA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Tuesday...High confidence. Easterly winds this morning becoming SE-S this afternoon with speeds below 20 kt. S-SW wind 10-20 kt tonight increasing to 15-25 kt Tue. Seas building to 4-6 ft. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain showers likely. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Tue May 19... BOS 90/1949 BDL 94/1962 PVD 91/2017 ORH 92/1962 Record Highs for Wed May 20... BOS 91/1996 BDL 99/1996 PVD 95/1996 ORH 91/1903 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ002>004. MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ008>011. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ003>007-010>019-026. RI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001>004. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for RIZ001>008. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KJC AVIATION...Hrencecin/McMinn MARINE...KJC CLIMATE...KJC  553 FXUS61 KCTP 181729 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 129 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Collaborated with WFO LWX and SPC to increased POPs for pulse/multicell TSRA with the potential for gusty winds later this afternoon and evening across Scent PA and the West Br Susq Valley. SPC painted a MRGL Risk for SVR across that area of the CWA. * Also slightly expanded the low pops for SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon and evening and included the potential for gusty wind and hail. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hottest temperatures of the year so far forecast this afternoon and Tuesday with highs pushing into the 80s and 90s. 2) A strong cold front to bring showers and thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather on Wednesday followed by colder temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Hottest temperatures of the year so far forecast this afternoon and Tuesday with highs pushing into the 80s and 90s. An extensive, but rather thin veil of high clouds covering much of the CWA early today will help to create near optimal conditions for a surge in heat today, thanks in part to their blanketing effect to reduce radiational cooling overnight and their minimal impact on insolation today. Temps will start the daylight hours in the 60s in most locations. Daytime high temperatures will be steadily rising today through Tuesday as an anomalous upper level ridge amplifies over the Eastern U.S. This will help to create very warm to hot, summerlike conditions centered on this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. 500 mb heights per the GEFS rise about 120 dam from Sunday morning to late Monday with standardized anomalies of these heights reaching over +2 sigma along the Mid Atlantic Coast 18Z Monday through 18z Tuesday. Collaborated with LWX and SPC to paint a MRGL risk for SVR TSRA from the Scent Mtns to the West Branch Valley of the Susq near the eastern edge of somewhat stronger (35-40 kt) swrly mid level winds with MU CAPE reaching near 2000 J/KG. Additionally, the eastern edge of an elevated mixed layer (currently over the Middle Ohio River Valley) will be tracking ENE at 15-20 kts and reach the western edge of the MRGL Risk area around 22-23Z today helping to enhance mid level lapse rates and updraft intensity. Mentioned the potential for gusty winds associated with the the clearly high-based convection occurring within an inverted-V sounding. High temperatures will peak in the mid 80s to mid 90s this afternoon based on elevation and proximity to the best llvl downslope and enhancement by adiabatic warming via the light southwesterly breeze today and moderately gusty WSW wind on Tuesday (with gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range during the late morning and afternoon hours). Daily record highs could be challenged in some locations. See the Climate section for more details. Manual adjustments were made to lower NBM maxT by a few degrees today due to a known systematic bias correction issue identified during the shoulder seasons. This should also keep max heat indices under 100F, precluding any need for Heat Advisories. Still, heat risk impacts will continue to be monitored given the quick ramp-up in heat and limited acclimation time. Dewpoints over 60F for many will also feel more humid relative the recent cool stretch we've had. With a boundary just to our north and sufficient instability in the warm sector over PA, there will be a chance for additional stray afternoon and early evening showers or thunderstorms this afternoon, with a better chance for locally robust convection on Tuesday across the Northern half of PA. Most places stay dry though, but thunderstorms could drop a quick 0.10 to 0.25" of rain in any one location. ------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front to bring showers and thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather on Wednesday followed by colder temperatures. A cold front (accompanied by more widespread and frequent showers/t-storms) brings relief to the relatively short bout of heat and moderate humidity Wednesday into Thursday. DOD max temp drop from Tuesday to Wed will be 20 deg F or greater in most locations. Some of the AI guidance paints an elevated risk of severe weather across the Lower Susquehanna Valley on Wednesday afternoon in the presence of peak heating and sufficient shear/CAPE profiles. The magnitude & location of the severe threat will be highly dependent on cold front passage timing and amount of cloud cover in advance of the frontal boundary. The eventual risk area will highlight locations along and downstream of the cold front between 12PM and 8PM on Wednesday. In the wake of the cold front, high pressure will build in for a short time. Temperatures are forecast to cool down back to historical/climo averages for late May for the end of next week. Early indications show the aforementioned cold front stalling out south of the Mason-Dixon line late in the week and lifting back north across PA as a warm front into Memorial Day weekend. The current outlook favors a cooler/wetter stretch through the holiday weekend thanks to that warm front, but there is still a lot of time for the forecast to trend in a more favorable and optimistic direction for the holiday weekend that marks the unofficial start of summer. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered cumulus clouds have been noted moving over the central Pennsylvania air space. Flight conditions are expected to remain VFR throughout the TAF period outside of a an isolated thundershower this afternoon. Confidence is overall low on thunderstorm development this afternoon. Forcing for storms is weak despite the available energy in the atmosphere. Latest CAM guidance would indicate a narrow window for convective storms to develop after 22Z this afternoon. These storms will be very isolated in nature, and PROB30 groups have been included at airfields that may see one of these storms. Overnight, a shortwave tracking across the Great Lakes may result in a few showers/thundershowers across West-Central PA (mainly KBFD), though flight restrictions appear unlikely with this activity. After 12Z on Tuesday clouds will begin to scatter out again and clear, with wind gusts up to 25kts possible again on Tuesday throughout the afternoon. Outlook... Tue...Mainly VFR. Patchy A.M. fog possible. Isolated P.M. shower or t-storm possible. Wed...Restrictions probable through Wednesday night with widespread showers/storms along CFROPA. Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. Fri...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. && .CLIMATE... Daily record max temperature for May 18-19: 5/18 5/19 Harrisburg 94 in 1962 95 in 1962 Williamsport 95 in 1962 96 in 1996 Altoona 91 in 1962/1996/2017 92 in 1996 Bradford 85 in 1962 85 in 1962 State College 92 in 1962 92 in 1934/1996 Overnight low temperatures on Monday night into Tuesday are also in jeopardy. Please note: State College Co-operative observations are a 24-hour summary taken once per day around 7 AM (7AM-7AM). Therefore, a max temp occurring in the daylight or late in the day is usually reported in the _next_ day's observation. Also, the same min temp may be reported on two consecutive days if the min occurs at observation time. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ057-059- 063-065-066. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Banghoff/Martin KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff/Martin DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff/Martin AVIATION...Bowen/Teare CLIMATE...Dangelo/Steinbugl  534 FXUS63 KDVN 181728 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1228 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of storms tonight, with the chance for some of them to be strong to severe. - Turning cooler and breezy Tuesday behind a cold front, with dry conditions expected to then last through at least Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Will walk out ongoing linear MCS that has become mainly outflow dominant, although a few isolated strong wind gusts may still occur. Also some isolated precursor WAA cells have developed ahead of the main line and with an elevated nature may produce some hail. Such a weakening larger system and inherent pressure perturbations may produce more trouble with wake low winds gushing out of the system's backside, possibly of 45 to 55+ MPH. Some of the CAMs even suggested this by mid morning south of I-80 acrs west central IL and far southeast IA. Areas of post-convective line stratiform rain with embedded thunder to be the last to clear as the morning progresses. Then again it's the same scenario of how much the convective debris can clear to allow for some heating, and also aided by breezy south to southwest sfc winds again this afternoon. Will go with 50 percentile widespread low 80s for highs today with sfc DPTs remaining in the 60s. The local area should remain dry while the current system lights up renewed convection to the south acrs central MO into central IL. Tonight...may be a similar scenario as to what has and is occurring this Sunday night/Monday morning. The main upper trof will dig out acrs the east central plains with mid and upper jet support, and the main sfc front located along the MO RVR Valley. MCS generation tools all come together to suggest rapid and strong convection to fire late this afternoon from central KS and up the MO RVR Valley. Storm propagation vectors and CAPE "hunger" has this activity growing upscale and feeding east with aid of 40-50 KT SSW LLJ flow as another squall line moves east acrs IA and northern MO. There may be more support and a probable earlier start to allow some of this activity to still be strong to severe with damaging straight line winds(as opposed to this Monday AM) as the linear MCS arrives. 0-3KM shear vectors and LLVL THTA-E lapse rates may also support some meso- vortice type spin up tornadoes along any LEWP or comma head updraft- downdraft balance regions. Locally heavy rain with the passing storm lines with high rates, but again progressive nature of the system should preclude much of a widespread flash flood threat. Would expect a weakening trend with the convection as it propagates eastward acrs the rest of the DVN CWA into the late night hours and into early Tuesday morning as storm outflow outraces the main line again. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday...Morning convective debris and possibly a few post-frontal isolated light showers to eventually clear off for a blustery and cooler day. A large temp range acrs the CWA from west-to-east, with the east experiencing 12 hour high temps in the morning along and just post-frontal and then falling off into the 60s. The rest of the week looks below normal under high pressure until moderation occurs into the start of the weekend. Also mainly dry until an upstream upper trof tries to battle it's way eastward into the ridge complex with some moisture draw for increasing precip chances by Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Some MVFR to VFR conditions lingering today behind earlier convection, with an expectation MVFR to low VFR deck to develop ahead of the next round of precipitation to move into late this evening/tonight. Winds have been some variable with weak influences lingering from last night's storms, but a boundary in place from southwest to northeast across Iowa to the northwest of the area that should allow for southerly flow to southwesterly flow to setup by this evening with that boundary to move through behind the storm's late tonight with winds to shift around to the west to northwest for Tuesday. Expect a band of showers/storms to spread across the area from the west/southwest late this evening into the overnight hours, with low IFR to MVFR CIGS developing behind the precipitation and boundary moving through the region into Tuesday morning. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hladik LONG TERM...Hladik AVIATION...MJB  519 FXUS66 KPDT 181728 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1028 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy Gap winds Today and Tuesday - Pleasant weather for most of the week with a warming trend - Mountain showers in the Wallowas This afternoon && .DISCUSSION... GOES satellite showed cirrus overspreading east of the Cascades but mainly clear conditions across the much of eastern Oregon with the caveat of lingering mid level clouds from earlier rain showers over the Wallowas and northern Blue Mountains of Washington. Roughly 20 to 50 % chances remain for shower across the Wallowas This afternoon, where snow could mix in but is unlikely to accumulate even above 6500 ft AGL. Models going forward show a gradually building ridge across the PAC NW as 500 mb heights rise from about 564dm to 570 by Tuesday. This sunny high pressure setup will bring some modification to surface temperatures especially in the second half of the week where highs in the 80s should be returnable by Thursday and Friday. Westerly gap and valley winds will also be a diurnally driven sensible weather beginning with the Kittitas valley and the Eastern Columbia Gorge, and adjacent Blue Mountain foothills. Here, areas around Ellensburg has about 75% chances for wind gusts above 30 mph but little if any appreciable chances for gusts above 40 mph. Strongest winds in the region look to be along ridge tops. As the transition form the cooler airmass to the a warmer on on Wednesdays with the upper ridge becoming more centered across Washington and Oregon, the winds will become lighter over a broader area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours at all sites. Winds will be diurnally and terrain-driven, breezy from late morning through evening. There is a very low (10 percent) chance of rain showers this afternoon at YKM with even lower chances (5 percent or less) elsewhere. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 69 42 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 69 46 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 75 44 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 74 44 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 73 44 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 68 41 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 68 30 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 64 36 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 65 34 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 73 45 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...86  598 FXUS63 KEAX 181730 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1230 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms continue across the region this morning, with locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible. - Severe thunderstorms are likely late afternoon into late tonight. - Far NW Missouri and NE Kansas will be under the greatest threat for all severe hazards by late afternoon and early evening. - Storms should congeal into a line of thunderstorms by this evening, and move east southeast through the region late tonight. Once this occurs, damaging wind gusts should become the primary hazard, but a few brief tornadoes may be possible. - Moderate to heavy rain will be possible again with the storms tonight. A flood watch is in effect through almost the entire CWA through 7 AM Tuesday. - Cooler temperatures arrive for Tuesday through Thursday before heating up once more by this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have nearly cleared our forecast area moving into central MO. SSE winds will increase with gusts up to 30 knots by early afternoon, continuing through early evening hours. A line of severe thunderstorms will impact STJ between roughly 00z and 03z tonight, moving through the KC metro terminals likely between 02z and 05z tonight. Severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the severe thunderstorm line, with periods of moderate to heavy rain reducing VIS significantly. Stratiform rain with isolated lightning strikes will linger behind the main convective line into early tomorrow morning. There is a potential (30-50%) terminals will see reduced VIS around 4SM and BR between 10z and 14z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MOZ001>007-011>016- 020>024-028>032-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. && $$ AVIATION...WFO EAX  584 FXUS65 KGJT 181730 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1130 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow returns tonight through tomorrow morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the eastern Uinta, Elkhead, and Park Mountains. - Freezing temperatures are expected to impact the Central and Lower Yampa River Basin Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Freeze highlights are in effect. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1039 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 WET AND COLD MONDAY: On Monday, the low which has been driving this active weather pattern will be moving overhead. As temperature take a dive near sunrise behind the associated cold front, near-surface conditions will rapidly moisten up. This should be plenty enough to promote another day of widespread precipitation. In spite of the frontal boundary being draped across the CWA, forcing is overall unimpressive and instability is minimal due to the anticipated morning cloud cover region-wide. So look for Monday's stormy weather to be more stratiform. A few discrete storms cannot be ruled out though, particularly later in the afternoon as cloud cover disperses to a degree. With temperatures dropping though, our focus is shifting away from severe weather potential towards another round of snowfall for our higher elevation locations. Snow levels are generally high (>9,000 ft) across the area, though further north from the eastern Uintas to the northern Colorado mountains, where cooler air has already been settling in, snow levels are expected to drop further (>6,000 ft). Accumulations could near a foot along higher elevation portions of US-191 in the Uintas, and Rabbit Ears Pass has ~50% chance of exceeding 6" of accumulation. Elsewhere in the CWA, snow totals will be lesser, but most mountain ranges are expected to sit at 2-6" of snow by the time the sun rises on Tuesday. FREEZE POTENTIAL: This frigid push brings more than just another round of late season snow, but will also cause more freeze concerns. The coldest conditions will occur on Tuesday morning. Much of the Yampa Valley River Basin is expected to see a hard freeze as a result during this period. Though temperatures begin to warm back up beyond Tuesday, Wednesday morning will also likely see below freezing temperatures in the Yampa River Basin, thus a freeze watch has been issued for CO001 and CO002. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1124 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Rain and snow showers continue to impact much of the region this morning. Cigs at KASE, KEGE, KRIL, KTEX, and KHDN are expected to be below ILS breakpoints through most of the afternoon. Precipitation could drop vis to MVFR conditions or lower at higher elevation terminals. Gusty winds are also expected to persist through the early evening, reaching 20-30 knots at most terminals. By 00Z, most storms will have cleared out, and VFR conditions should be restored region-wide by 06Z at the latest. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ001-002. Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for COZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ004. UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ024. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for UTZ023. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  580 FXUS65 KVEF 181729 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1029 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Today's weather includes cool temperatures and decreasing winds before a warming trend takes place through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION...through Sunday. The trough responsible for yesterday's winds is centered over the Nevada-Utah state line as of midnight PDT/MST and will continue to move east this morning. Wind speeds will decrease areawide in response. Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings remain in effect until 5 AM PST/MST this morning for most locations. Northerly winds remain in the Colorado River Valley this morning with gusts between 30 and 40 mph, which will bring waves of 2 to 4 feet on area lakes. A High Wind Warning will continue until 11 AM PDT/MST, but these winds will weaken in the afternoon. Also of interest is notably cooler temperatures today, with highs 10 to 15 degrees below normal for mid-May. This means highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for the Mojave Desert Valleys including Las Vegas and highs in the 60s to low 70s in the southern Great Basin and Owens Valley. However, these unseasonably cool temperatures will be short lived as high pressure rebuilds over the West Coast throughout the week. Highs return to near normal values by Wednesday and climb to 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Friday, lasting through the weekend. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty northeasterly winds (with directional variability between 020-050 true) will continue into this afternoon, with gusts to around 20-25KT expected on at least an intermittent basis. Gusts are expected to diminish by mid-afternoon, with sustained speeds dropping to around 10KT. Winds back to the north late evening and to the northwest overnight, before shifting to the north and northeast again on Tuesday morning. Another round of gusty northeasterly winds is expected mid-morning through early to mid- afternoon Tuesday, though slightly weaker than today, with gusts expected to top out around 20KT. VFR conditions with clear skies will prevail. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty northerly to northeasterly winds are expected across the area through this afternoon, with gusts to 20-25KT common for most locations outside of the Lower Colorado River Valley. There, from roughly KIFP to KEED, terrain-enhanced northerly winds will gust to around 35KT through late afternoon, slowly decreasing through the evening. Elsewhere, gusts will largely diminish after sunset, with elevated and gusty northerly to northeasterly winds returning across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona by mid-morning Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail, with only a FEW high clouds late in the period across far southern areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  612 FXUS66 KOTX 181730 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1030 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily over the higher terrain Monday afternoon. - Chilly overnight temperatures will bring an isolated threat of morning frost Tuesday. This could impact sensitive plants or crops. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. && .SYNOPSIS... Diurnally forced showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue today Monday. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday night: A deep longwave trough of lower pressure will remain over the CONUS for this weekend through the workweek. The axis of this longwave trough will slowly migrate over the Rockies by through Wednesday and then over the Plains by Thursday into Friday. The Inland Northwest will remain under the backside of this trough today with a conditionally unstable air mass. Lingering showers over extreme eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle early this morning will wane with decreasing instability at mid levels. However, diurnal heating will destabilize the lower levels of the atmosphere for the afternoon. There will be a lack of instability over the Columbia Basin today, which should result in much of the showers and thunderstorm activity confined to mainly the higher terrain today. Instability parameters will be much less compared to Sunday with upper levels trending warmer. Much less likely to see as much small hail like we've seen with this storms, but some is expected with slightly stronger thunderstorms over the mountains. Convection will also be capable of wind gusts up to around 20-25 mph and infrequent cloud to ground lightning strikes. Best potential for thunderstorms today will be over northeast Washington into the Northern Panhandle with 20-25% chance of occurring. Convection is expected to wane more quickly into the evening hours compared to Sunday. We then see a drying trend into mid week as a ridge of higher pressure in the eastern Pacific nudes east into the Northwest. There is a shortwave disturbance that pushes across BC on Tuesday and does bring a 20-30 percent chance for showers across the far northern mountains closer to the Canadian border, and this potential could linger into Wednesday for North Idaho as the shortwave pushes across fairly slowly. There is a 15% chance that places like Lauier, Northport, Metalline Falls, Porthill, and Eastport may also see a passing thunderstorm. Temperatures warm up above normal by Wednesday with our highs back into the 70s. The risk for morning frost will decrease as well as temperatures see a slow warm into the weekend. Saturday through Sunday: Model ensembles remain in pretty good agreement with a shortwave trough of lower pressure to flatten the ridge. There is uncertainty with how deep this shortwave will be. About 80 percent of the ensemble members show this disturbance to be fairly weak with minimal cooling of just a few degrees Saturday into Sunday. Westerly winds will see an increase. Stronger wind gusts of up to around 30 mph will be across the Cascades and into the western basin and up to around 20-25 mph potentially into places like Spokane and the Palouse. Winds would pick up Saturday afternoon, but could also remain fairly breezy into Sunday as well. Models continue to diverge as we head into the beginning of next week. Outliers such as the 00Z operational ECMWF andCanadian indicate a deep trough to dig in into BC and potentially as far south as the Pacific Northwest. This scenario would represent more cooling and a better potential for showers than what is in the forecast. The NBM suggests a more zonal flow pattern with the potential for progressive weaker waves that could bring light shower activity but nothing looking all that substantial. After our warm up late in the week, temperatures look to cool near normal for Sunday into the beginning of next week. /SVH && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Antecedent boundary layer moisture and surface heating will result in developing cumulus fields 18-20Z. There is 40% chance for cells to develop showers and 10-25% for convection to grow deep enough for lightning. Greatest risk will be over the mountains of northern WA and the Idaho Panhandle though cells drifting south will pose a small risk into the upper Columbia Basin and Spokane-Cd'A area. Given the latest output from the cam models, did introduce prob30 for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE for -shra with a 10-15% chance for -tsra. Any thunderstorms will bring a threat for brief downpours of rain/small hail, lightning, and erratic outflow winds to 30 mph. Pending where rain falls, areas of valley fog will be possible overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a small risk for MVFR cigs mainly around KGEG-KSFF- KCOE-KPUW this morning as cumulus clouds are developing and cloud bases are slowly lifting. Main uncertainty this afternoon will be if thunderstorms survive off the higher terrain into KGEG-KSFF-KCOE as we have seen the last two afternoons. /sb ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 66 41 69 44 72 45 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 64 41 67 44 70 45 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 Pullman 62 39 65 42 68 43 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 67 43 71 46 73 48 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 69 36 71 40 75 41 / 20 30 10 10 0 0 Sandpoint 62 40 66 43 68 43 / 30 30 10 10 0 0 Kellogg 61 39 66 43 68 43 / 20 20 10 0 10 10 Moses Lake 73 42 75 46 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 72 48 74 51 77 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 73 43 75 48 78 51 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Frost Advisory until 7 AM PDT this morning for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse. ID...Frost Advisory until 7 AM PDT this morning for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Northern Panhandle. && $$  869 FXUS64 KBMX 181733 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1233 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 - Rain chances increase starting Tuesday night and become a daily feature through the weekend as a cold front stalls across the region. - Warm conditions continue to start out the work week with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. && .DISCUSSION... (Monday through next Sunday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026 As of writing, a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the southeastern portion of the CWA. The majority of convection this afternoon remained across the border in Georgia where low level convergence was maximized within a corridor of slightly higher moisture. Monday looks to feature a low (20-30%) chance for showers and storms as a passing H85-H7 shortwave interacts with an expanding plume of healthy moisture. Best chances will be across our southern and eastern areas. Rain chances begin to increase late Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the first of a series of shortwaves pass through the region. The upper ridge that has been influencing the area over the last few days will lose its grasp by mid week as an upper trough begins to move across the Plains. An associated cold front will sink across the southeast Wednesday into Thursday, eventually stalling and lingering through the end of the week. As a result, we will see continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. By the weekend, the stalled front retreats back to the north, leaving ample moisture in place across the region. Therefore, rain chances remain in the forecast. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours outside of any convection. Sufficient moisture and weak confluence on the west side of the Bermuda high will result in isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA initially in the vicinity of MGM, then potentially northward to BHM/EET. However, coverage will be limited by ridging aloft. PROB30s are included at MGM/EET/BHM, while at AUO/TCL probabilities are only 20 percent and will not be mentioned. Variable gusty winds may occur with any TSRA. 32/JDavis && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday afternoon will feature low chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across our southern and eastern areas. However, most locations will likely remain dry. Rain chances increase by mid week and continue into the weekend as a front stalls across the region. Fire weather concerns are not anticipated over the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 65 88 65 87 / 10 10 10 70 Anniston 65 88 66 86 / 10 0 10 60 Birmingham 70 89 70 87 / 30 0 10 70 Tuscaloosa 69 90 69 88 / 20 0 20 50 Calera 67 90 67 88 / 30 0 10 60 Auburn 67 89 68 88 / 10 0 0 30 Montgomery 68 90 69 89 / 20 0 10 40 Troy 66 90 68 89 / 20 0 10 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...32/JDavis  827 FXUS66 KLOX 181732 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1032 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION .SYNOPSIS...18/205 AM. Warmer temperatures are expected this week with some locally breezy Santa Ana winds this morning. The warmest day will be Wednesday with slow cooling the rest of the week along with a return of night and morning low clouds and fog. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...18/718 AM. ***UPDATE*** The late season Santa Ana Wind event has materialized across the San Gabriel Mountains, with gusts in the 25-40 mph range, and a few of the hot spots have reached 50+ mph. Winds are beginning to pick up across the Santa Susannas, with gusts 30+ mph. There still exists quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the Santa Anas through the valleys and down to the Oxnard Plain today. The very deep marine layer will battle the offshore flow push, and northeast winds may not surface at very noticeable speeds, especially at the coasts. There is a concern regarding fire weather today across the San Gabriels and Santa Susanas due to the offshore winds following a long stretch of warm and very dry conditions. Elevated to brief critical conditions will continue through this afternoon. Confidence is high in a general warming and drying trend today due to offshore influences and weak onshore gradients this afternoon. This trend will continue through Wednesday, with weak northeast winds expected over the mountains tomorrow. ***From Previous Discussion*** The marine layer is about 5000 ft deep and marine layer stratus covers much of the csts and vlys of LA and VTA counties. The low clouds should dissipate earlier than normal as the pressure grads shift offshore. There will be a 10 mb offshore trend in the E/W direction and this will help develop a Santa Ana wind event despite not much in the way of actual offshore flow or upper support. Most of the passes and canyons will have gusty NE winds but the advisory level gusts will be confined to the mtns. Almost all of the csts and vlys will see 4 to 8 degrees of warming today with max temps across the csts and vlys in the 70s and lower 80s. There will be weaker offshore flow on Tuesday but it will hinder any attempt of the marine layer to reform with only the Long Beach area vulnerable to morning low clouds. Any canyon winds that do develop in the morning will be well under advisory criteria. The warming trend will continue with 1 to 3 degrees of warming expected across the csts; 3 to 6 degrees in he vlys and 5 to 8 further inland. The inland areas greater warming trend is due to the lack of cool air advection that will occur today. The max temps across the csts/vlys will be 4 to 8 degrees above normal. Wednesday should be a sunny day with little or no marine layer stratus in the morning. It will be the warmest day for the csts and vlys as max temps there will warm another 1 to 3 degrees. Look for mid 70s to lower 80s across the csts and 80s in the vlys. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...18/205 AM. Weak upper level flow will be atop of Srn CA for the xtnd period. There will be few if any weather concerns during the period. At the sfc there will be increasing onshore flow each day. By the weekend there will be moderate to strong onshore flow. The marine layer clouds will also increase in coverage and duration every day. By the weekend there will be a strong enough onshore push to the W that will generate gusty near advisory level gusts in the western Antelope Vly and foothills. The increase in onshore flow and marine layer coupled with slowly falling hgts will bring about a 4 day cooling trend. Friday will have the most noticeable cooling of 4 to 6 degrees. By Sunday max temps will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the csts and upper 70s and lower 80s in the vlys. These max temps are 1 to 3 degrees blo normal. && .AVIATION...18/1731Z. At 1633Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion. Overall, moderate to high confidence in 18Z Package. VFR conditions are expected. However, there is a moderate chance of MVFR CIGs at KLGB and KLAX 10Z-16Z Tuesday. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 06Z Tuesday. Moderate chance of MVFR CIGs around 015 from 10Z-16Z Tuesday. No significant east wind component expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected. && .MARINE...18/729 AM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will linger through tonight. For Tuesday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Seas may linger near 10 ft across the waters beyond 5NM from shore through this morning. From this afternoon through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 88-375>380. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke/BL AVIATION...Black MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...LP/MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox  902 FXUS63 KFGF 181734 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1234 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers is expected this afternoon through tonight, bringing a two day total of a quarter to half inch for nearly all areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Drizzle and mist still hanging on at a few locations, although not as many as earlier this morning. Trackable rain on radar still off to our southwest, but will begin to move into eastern ND during the next few hours. Continued to have POPs ramping up this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Drizzle and scattered showers continue this morning across the area, along with an increase in north winds. Cloudy skies are expected through the day, with drizzle winding down late this morning. Additional shower activity is expected this afternoon and evening, however, followed by a surge of cooler air. UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Severe potential continues to dwindle in our southeast (Wilkin, Grant, Ottertail, Wadena counties) with a small hail threat the main concern as of now through about 10-11pm. Could see some hail up to dime size but even that feels like a stretch. IN OTHER NEWS ITS RAINING. For the first time since mid to late April for most we are seeing rain totals over a quarter inch which should immensely help to put a damper on blowing dust and fire danger. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...Synopsis... Severe convection potential looks to remain mainly in west- central Minnesota this afternoon/evening as model guidance continues to prog the main surface-based instability barely approaching southern Grant County. Elevated instability remains expected to ascend north of the warm front this afternoon, bringing the potential for elevated showers and thunderstorms across southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Areas that see storms through the evening will have the potential to see rainfall exceed 1 inch. Elsewhere, generally expect rainfall totals between a quarter inch to half inch. For severe convection potential, see the severe section below. Rainfall should exit the region late this evening/early tomorrow morning giving a brief break from precipitation before the main upper trough ejects over the intermountain west. As this trough ejects, it looks increasingly likely that a swath of precipitation will dump a broad swath of at least a quarter of an inch of precipitation. Unfortunately, there looks like there will be a region between where rain falls today and where rain falls tomorrow that could see very limited rainfall amounts, which may exacerbate ongoing dryness. Instability will be well cut off tomorrow so severe thunderstorms and thunderstorms are not expected to develop. The remainder of the period will be characterized by relatively cool temperatures through midweek with frost/freeze potential Wednesday morning. Drier conditions will also return but with flow aloft being relatively weak, the probability for red flag conditions is low. ...SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY... Surface analysis this afternoon shows the warm front roughly situated just north of Sioux Falls. This has allowed intense isentropic ascent over our area, bringing some solid moisture content to the region. This warm front remains expected to propagate northward this afternoon and bringing surface moisture with it. CAM guidance continues to generally prog the surface instability south of our CWA, barely scraping Grant County. Per HREF probabilities, there is only a 10% chance to even see 500 J/kg of SCAPE. MUCAPE also is very closely attached to this warm front and shares similar probabilities as a result. Having said that, shear associated with the front is rather strong, approaching 50+ knots. There will be a brief window this evening (likely at most 1-2 hours) wherein severe convection may impact our west-central Minnesota counties. Any severe convection will most likely be hail as storms are likely to be elevated as storm relative winds in the 0-2km layer are most likely to be due easterly, so it will be difficult to ingest warmer air to the south. If surface-based convection arises, tornadoes can't be ruled out but again this is very unlikely at this time and would require very strong propagation northward in the warm front. The window of severe thunderstorms ends roughly close to midnight at the latest, but should generally be out of the area by 8-10 PM CDT. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 IFR to MVFR conditions at most spots this afternoon, and there will be not much recovery as more clouds and rain move in from the southwest. Have most airports down to IFR tonight into tomorrow morning, then some recovery to MVFR by the end of the period. Kept rain light and 3-5SM at the lowest. North to northwest Winds that are gusting above 20 kts in some places will drop off just a bit overnight, but then pick up again by mid-day tomorrow. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch/JR/TT DISCUSSION...Perroux AVIATION...JR  927 FXUS64 KTSA 181735 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1235 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1119 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Windy with isolated to scattered showers and storms through this evening. Limited severe risk. - Numerous showers and storms Tuesday morning into NE OK spreading southward through early afternoon. Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall. - Cooler temperatures Wednesday-Friday with continued low rain chances through the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Moist and unstable southerly flow remains in place across the area. Modest lift within the warm advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere is and will continue to result in isolated to scattered showers and storms the next few hours, particularly in far northeast OK and northwest AR. These storms will mostly stay sub severe, but some marginally severe hail is possible in the stronger storms. A few CAMs suggest storms could form along the dry line in western Oklahoma this afternoon, with storms then moving east into the forecast area, though this remains the less likely outcome. If these dry line storms did develop, these storms would have the potential to be severe. Otherwise, warm, humid, and windy conditions will persist through the day with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. Near the tail end of the overnight hours a cold front will move into northeast OK. CAMs disagree on the storm details, but the most probable outcome is for a line of storms to be present along the front. Significant severe weather may occur north of the area, but the expectation is that the storms will be weakening at least somewhat as they approach the area. There are several reasons for this, including relatively weak upper level forcing and weak flow. Still, there will be a threat for strong damaging winds and an isolated tornadic spin up, particularly as storms first enter from Kansas. Areas of heavy rainfall may occur as the storms move through. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1119 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Near dawn on Tuesday the line of storms will be moving through northeast OK, continuing southeast through the early afternoon before exiting the area. Wind shear will remain unimpressive, but there will be sufficient instability with daytime heating for a few storms to become severe. Large hail and strong gusty winds will be the main hazards, with a lesser tornado threat. Behind the cold front temperatures will quickly cool with much drier air. Most guidance is producing a renewal of showers and possibly a thunderstorm north of I-40 Tuesday evening. This will occur along an elevated frontal boundary remaining over the area. Wednesday will be cool and quiet outside of a few showers lingering for southeast OK and northwest AR. Highs will only reach the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps even upper 60s in some spots. Lows will be in the lower 60s and upper 50s. A shortwave trough will dive into the area from the northwest Thursday to Friday, interacting with some remnant troughing across the desert Southwest. This will result in an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the area. With modest but sustained forcing, high PWAT, and a deep layer of minimal CAPE, this will be a good setup for several rounds of moderate rain, with only minimal severe weather risk. Over the weekend and into early next week it gets a little more uncertain, as models aren't confident on whether we get a short term break and warm up and dry out a bit, or if the remnant southwest troughing will keep shower activity going. Either way, if there is a break, it will be short lived with another storm cycle likely into the middle of next week. Overall, it appears somewhat cooler and wetter weather will be here to stay for a while. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Ceilings are lifting above MVFR conditions and should become all VFR within the hour. A few showers continue over NW AR, but minimal if any terminal impacts are expected through the afternoon. Breezy southerly winds will also continue through the afternoon and into the overnight period. A line of thunderstorms is progged to develop across Kansas this evening along a cold front and track southeastward across NE OK and into SE OK and NW AR from early Tuesday morning through the early afternoon. Storms could bring strong winds along with reduced VSBY and frequent lightning. Timing will continue to be refined. Northerly winds and MVFR cigs are expected to follow the frontal passage across NE OK sites through the remainder of the TAF period. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 67 75 58 71 / 60 70 80 40 FSM 72 84 65 80 / 10 90 70 70 MLC 73 82 61 77 / 10 100 70 50 BVO 61 71 53 69 / 80 40 60 20 FYV 72 80 60 74 / 20 90 80 60 BYV 72 81 59 70 / 20 90 90 60 MKO 71 78 59 73 / 20 90 70 50 MIO 67 74 56 68 / 60 80 70 30 F10 70 78 58 73 / 20 80 70 50 HHW 73 81 65 79 / 10 90 60 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>064-067-154- 254-354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...04  937 FXUS65 KPUB 181735 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1135 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme fire danger is expected across our southern plains today, with southwest winds gusting 45 to 50 mph and humidity values in the single digits. - 50 mph winds are expected over the southern mountains and the San Luis Valley, which may lead to blowing dust over the valley, blowing snow over the mountains, and travel concerns resulting in both cases. - Showers will be possible north of Highway 50 and west of I-25, with thunderstorms mainly across the Pikes Peak region. - A Freeze Watch remains in place for El Paso and Kiowa counties tonight, and frost may be possible for other portions of the plains as well. - Cooler and wetter weather is expected for all areas tomorrow and Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1112 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Lots of changes to the forecast this morning, mainly with headlines. Blowing Dust and High Wind Warnings have been added to the San Luis Valley with high winds mainly confined to the central and southern portions of the area. Still monitoring Baca and Las Animas counties for potential Blowing Dust Advsy or Dust storm warnings once the winds kick in as the front lifts northward. These decisions will need to be made based on mesoscale details with short fused type warnings. -KT && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 For the plains..The elusive cold front has sagged back south since sunset, and is now sitting between Springfield and Campo across Baca County. This front and where it ends up again this afternoon will be the driving factor in today's forecast across the plains once again. North of the front and west of I-25, stratus has begun to develop up against the terrain as of midnight. USAFA is reporting ceilings down to 2,000ft, and the Colorado Springs airfield is starting to see lower scattered decks as well. Models continue to suggest that rain will be possible as upslope continues across the mountains/plains interface throughout this morning. Thunderstorms will be possible across the Pikes Peak region again this afternoon, though severe development is not expected. That said, lots of shear will present over the region today, so if any areas clear out and warm up, chances for a stronger storm or two may be possible, especially over the higher terrain of the Pikes Peak region. The main forecast concern on our plains today though will be our high end Red Flag Warning across our southern plains. Las Animas and Baca counties are both included in this warning, and southern portions of Bent and Prowers counties may see periods of critical conditions as well depending on how far north/east the front gets shoved this afternoon. Over these areas, single digit relative humidity values and southwest wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are expected. The strongest winds and lowest humidities will be over Baca County this afternoon, which will lead to the possibility for extreme fire behavior for any new or existing fires today. Please use extra caution and take care not to start a wildfire today. One last note for the plains, gusty winds over our southeast plains may also lead to blowing dust and hazardous travel conditions. Once the sun sets, the front *finally* pushes itself completely southwards, allowing all areas to cool and moisten through the overnight hours. This will put an end to fire weather concerns for a few days. Overnight lows will be chilly in our post frontal airmass though, and areas north of Highway 50 may see hard freeze conditions by Tuesday morning. El Paso and Kiowa counties are both under Freeze Watches for tonight through early Tuesday morning, and temperatures down into the upper 20s will be possible. Another tier of counties or two may also see the potential for frost depending on clearing through the overnight hours. For the high country and the San Luis Valley..Models bring the trough axis through our southern mountains between 9 AM and Noon or so, which will be the windiest timeframe for the San Juans, the San Luis Valley, and the Sangres. The NBM continues to be the only outlier suggesting high wind criteria, so have continued to trend towards other model consensus, which keeps winds below warning levels across the area. The San Luis Valley is likely to see gusts upwards of 50 mph or so though, especially if any showers survive off the mountains and help to enhance gusts coming down the terrain. Areas of blowing dust are likely across the Valley today, especially with any localized stronger winds from decaying showers. Over the mountains, a quick 2 to 4 inches of wind driven snow will be possible for the San Juans and the central mountains. Though totals will be low, degraded visibility and hazardous travel conditions may be possible from blowing snow, especially over mountain passes. Snow comes to an end for both range by around midnight or so at the latest. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday.. The front is finally through us and will stay through us for Tuesday and Wednesday. We stay in southwest flow aloft as messy troughing sits out west. This pattern will keep temperatures cooler than normal, and it will keep precip chances over us as well. Models bring shortwave energy through the trough and over us on Tuesday, which will help to develop weak showers and thunderstorms over the high country on Tuesday afternoon, and better chances for widespread rain on the plains overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday. Daytime highs look to stay in the 60s both days, with decent chances for precipitation both days. Thursday Onwards.. Models are not in great agreement about the pattern late week onwards, but the general consensus suggests some type of northwest flow with a trough passing to our north. This looks to bring temperatures back into the near normal range for Thursday and Friday, with warmer than normal temperatures by the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast nearly every afternoon, especially across the high country. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1124 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 KALS...very windy conditions out of the southwest, with gusts approaching 60 kts and BLDU with restrictions to CIGS and VIS. Winds will shift more westerly by mid afternoon and weaken into the evening. Southerly winds will increase on Tuesday morning. CIGS look to remain around 6 kft through much of the period, once winds decrease and BLDU subsides. KCOS...low CIGS near 1500 ft will prevail into early afternoon. A few showers look to move off the Rampart Range and across El Paso County this afternoon. Strong winds will likely accompany these showers, with gusts approaching 40 kts possible. A frontal boundary will arrive late this afternoon shifting winds northerly with continued strong gusts. CIGS will lower back to near 1500-2000 ft overnight into Tuesday morning as flow returns southeasterly upslope. KPUB...low CIGS near 2000 ft will continue into early afternoon before a cold front arrives by late afternoon. Northerly winds gusting near 40 kts may accompany the frontal boundary. There is a low probability of westerly winds briefly, with strong gusts around 20-22Z with clearing skies. Confidence in this is low. Winds will dissipate overnight and switching easterly with low CIGS near 2000 ft expected into Tuesday morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blowing Dust Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ069>071. High Wind Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ070-071. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for COZ084-085-095-096. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ230-233- 237. && $$ UPDATE...KT SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...MOZLEY  023 FXUS63 KILX 181737 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1237 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather areawide today. While all severe weather hazards will be possible, damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be the most likely. - Additional thunderstorms will develop along an advancing cold front on Tuesday, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather in areas east of Interstate 55. Once again, damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be the most likely hazard. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 543 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Active Convective Complex This Morning... Radar analysis early this morning reveals a robust linear Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) stretching from north-central Wisconsin down through southeast Iowa, central Missouri, and into eastern Kansas. Strong, consolidating cold pools have allowed a leading outflow boundary to outrun the primary convective line. Convective-allowing models (CAMs) exhibit high confidence that this system will maintain its structural integrity as it pushes eastward into the central Illinois forecast area later this morning. Sustaining this morning activity is a potent 40-50 kt low-level jet (LLJ) parked directly over central Illinois. This feature, working in tandem with subtle mid-level shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow aloft, is providing ample synoptic lift and elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg). While weak deep- layer shear (> 30 kts) should keep the morning activity largely disorganized and sub-severe, mid-level dry air and localized evaporative cooling could help overcome the waning morning inversion, supporting isolated severe hail or localized downburst winds. As an interesting aside, numerous runs of the HRRR overnight depicted an area of 40-50 kt surface winds within the trailing stratiform region, in an otherwise unassuming area. While it is uncertain if the model is resolving a wake-low or meso-high feature, the trend bears close observation. If these winds materialize, a short- fused wind advisory or high wind warning may become necessary for a brief window this afternoon. Severe Potential This Afternoon... By early afternoon, attention shifts to areas near and east of a Taylorville-to- Champaign line. A compact shortwave trough is progged to lift northeastward out of southeast Missouri around 18z, enhancing background kinematic shear and dynamic forcing across a highly buoyant boundary layer. In this zone, temperatures climbing toward the 80-degree mark and dewpoints hovering near 70 degrees will yield SBCAPE values exceeding 2000 J/kg. While the incoming shortwave will likely spark an increase in convective coverage ahead of the main morning line, individual storm intensity remains somewhat conditional. An important limiting factor is that mid-level lapse rates will likely deteriorate through the afternoon as the residual Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) exits to the east. However, as deep- layer shear ticks upward across southeast Illinois later today, localized enhancements within the main convective line remain a possibility. This could yield bowing segments capable of producing the full spectrum of severe weather hazards as the line advances into the southeastern counties. The severe threat will not completely diminish after dark. Additional shortwaves interacting with the persistent 40-50 kt LLJ core will likely sustain elevated convective development ahead of the approaching cold front well into Tuesday morning. Conditional Severe Threat on Tuesday... Significant forecasting uncertainty shrouds the Tuesday period, primarily driven by nebulous synoptic forcing and the likelihood of extensive morning convective debris. If widespread cloud cover and rain persist deep into the morning hours, afternoon destabilization will be severely limited, rendering the severe weather threat highly conditional. At this juncture, the highest probability for boundary layer recovery exists near and south of the Interstate 72 corridor, extending through southeast Illinois ahead of the advancing cold front. Should adequate destabilization manifest, favorable instability and deep-layer shear profiles would initially support discrete supercellular structures. However, because the regional shear vectors are oriented nearly parallel to the surface frontal boundary, any discrete activity is expected to transition rapidly into a linear MCS as the front sweeps through Tuesday evening. Hydrological Concerns and High QPF Variability... Confidence remains exceptionally high that multiple rounds of convective rainfall will impact the entire region through Tuesday evening. However, the complex, repeated nature of this pattern introduces severe spatial discrepancies in expected precipitation totals. 48-hour HREF Localized Probability Match Mean (LPMM) QPF projections valid through 00z Wednesday demonstrate a stark variance, showing localized pockets picking up a mere quarter-inch while repeating Storm cores could exceed 4.5 inches. Current model guidance continues to pinpoint the highest risk for these excessive, flood-producing rainfall totals along and south of the I-72 corridor, where repeated convective elements are most likely to anchor. Midweek Clearing Followed by a Wet Weekend Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday: A welcome pattern shift occurs mid- week as a cooler, significantly more stable post-frontal regime takes hold. Continental high pressure building into the Midwest will clear skies and lower humidity levels, offering a brief reprieve from the active weather. Friday through Sunday: The dry spell will be short-lived. Global deterministic models are in notably better agreement, signaling a return to a wetter, unsettled pattern by late week. As the surface high pressure slants eastward, a potent mid-level shortwave will advance across the central U.S. A steady plume of Gulf moisture combined with a series of minor shortwave impulses lifting northeast from the Southern Plains will keep central Illinois susceptible to multiple rounds of scattered showers. While weak kinematic profiles should heavily restrict the overall severe weather risk, a gradual build-up of instability over the weekend will support widespread thunderstorm development. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Precipitation will continue to slowly spread east along a remnant outflow boundary through the remainder of this afternoon. Although most of the thunderstorm activity should remain south of the airfields, can't completely rule out a low chance for lightning at KSPI and KDEC through about 00Z. After a lull this evening, another wave of storms will approach from the west late tonight into the early morning hours of Tuesday. PROB30 groups remain in place for this potential at all locations. South-southwest winds will be breezy through Tuesday, with gusts between 20-25 kts. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for ILZ054>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...NMA/MJA DISCUSSION...MJA AVIATION...NMA  104 FXUS61 KOKX 181739 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 139 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes, with hot weather expected thru Wed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike temperatures through Wednesday 2) A cold front moves across Wednesday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Brief gusty winds and locally heavy rain possible. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... No major changes to the hot fcst thru Wed. Kept with the previous trend of going a bit blw the NBM which is believed to be too warm. Went with a 50/50 blend of the MAV and NBM to accomplish this. The shallow backdoor cold front looks to have little impact on temps today aside from ern areas and LI, where onshore flow may limit highs a bit. Otherwise the hot airmass continues to build in. Depending on where the numbers end up today, there is a chance some of the usually warmer spots may need a heat advy based on the two-day 95 degree criteria. In addition, temps could spike on Wed ahead of the front. Guidance often has a tough time getting hot enough invof a front, especially a few days out. Despite that bias, the MAV/NBM blend still has a high of 94 for KNYC on Wed. .KEY MESSAGE 2... It looks increasingly likely that a cold fropa will occur during the day on Wed. The actual timing will be critical. Low moisture but sufficient instability and no CIN should allow for tstms to develop invof the front assuming a daytime passage. The best upr support is to the north, but there will be falling heights nonetheless. Primary severe threat based on the setup appears to be downburst winds with relatively high based storms attm. DCAPE in the NAM supports this with peak values around 1500J/kg modeled. There could be some hail as well with the dry air entrainment. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid to upper 60s and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A warm front lifts north of the region today. High pressure remains over the western Atlantic with a frontal system over the mid section of the country. T VFR through the TAF period. Southerly winds this afternoon increase to around 10kt with a some locations G15-18kt. Winds diminish tonight to under 10 kt from the S/SW. Winds are expected to increase once again on Tuesday with gusts once again to near 20kt. Gusts may be more occasional at times. ...NYMetro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Tuesday: VFR. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt into eve. Isolated thunderstorm potential afternoon into early eve, mainly north of NYC terminals with brief MVFR or lower possible. Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible. NW windshift in the evening. Thursday-Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain blw SCA lvls today. Winds will increase tngt, with SCA cond possible on Tue, especially on the ocean. The threat for SCA winds and seas continues on Wed as a cold front passes, then winds and seas are modeled to remain blw advy lvls Thu and Fri. There could be some strong tstms invof the cold front on Wed. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 17: KEWR: 68/2015 KBDR: 60/2025 KNYC: 70/1906 KLGA: 68/1965 KJFK: 63/1965 KISP: 62/2015 May 18: KEWR: 74/2017 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 75/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 65/2017 KISP: 63/1977 May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007- 009>011. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075- 176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ004- 006-103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...BC MARINE...  099 FXUS63 KPAH 181739 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1239 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy today with thunderstorms becoming a factor by the afternoon (50-70% chance). Some risk (level 1 to 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms exists with wind and hail the main threat. - High rain chances (80-100%) from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Level 2 of 5 severe weather risk but the deep layer shear may be too weak. Locally heavy rain possible but storm organization may be too lacking for optimal rainfall rates. - Drier conditions briefly behind a cold front but rain and thunderstorms (and humidity) come back by Thursday into Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Updated the aviation section for the 18Z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Things continue to move roughly in line with expectations in the near term, wetter in the medium/long-range. For today watching a shortwave over south central Texas that is progged to be overhead by 20-21z and looks to interact with our increasingly soupy airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s. Convection allowing models suggest the MCS over MO/KS may make it (in some form) into the region by about that time as well. The upper support looks a little lacking but may be sufficient to keep something going the trend is at least for it to generate some sort of differential heating boundary that may be a foci for convective initiation in the heat of the day. MLCAPEs are around 2000-2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is 35-40 kt with the approaching wave, low shear is not too worrisome although a mesoscale boundary from the MCS could complicate the tornado factor a little. That risk appears highest along the I-64 corridor roughly, where it looks like most of the rest of the CWA could see isolated to scattered cells/complexes. These do appear they'd have the ingredients for wind/hail through the afternoon. Breezy conditions again today and did hoist another targeted Lake Wind Advisory. Tuesday a surface cold front still works close to the area as we begin to feel the lifting influence of the right rear exit region of a northern Plains/Great Lakes jet max. PWATs are high, layer warm-air advection is moderate, jet level ascent/height falls are supportive and you'll have the front in the area as well. We should end up with scattered to numerous showers and storms with a window for locally heavy rain - although there still really aren't any tools that go too nuts. HREF PMMs max out at 1.5 inches or so and it would take quite a bit more than that to flood given our antecedent conditions. Severe weather wise the instability will be there, the low shear is ok but the deep layer shear really backs off through the day and we may not quite have enough oomph there to help significantly organize convection. This may be part of why the CAM based precip guidance is so weak, things just will be too sloppy to produce optimal rainfall rates. The medium and long range trend is definitely for more persistent troughiness over the central plains and Rocky Mountains. Late Wednesday into Thursday may be a little drier/less humid but by Friday the warm front sweeps back to the north putting us firmly back into the soup. Shear/instability Friday may line up to produce a little severe weather potential with ECMWF/GFS agreement on shear and instability. After that fairly large differences in deterministic and ensemble positioning and shape of the cut off/closed lows/shortwave troughs that spit out of this system get pretty jumbled. On balance however generally humid and unsettled weather appears a reasonable bet. Hopefully with enough rain to ameliorate our drought conditions at least a little. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to develop this afternoon and increase in coverage. Heavier banding is located just north of KMVN and will remain through the afternoon while, across the Quad State, showers and storms are moving in from the southwest. Locally heavy rain is possible, and lightning is likely to be a factor several hours in a row for some sites. The Kentucky Pennyrile area has the least potential for thunder. MVFR cigs are possible with storms, as are vsby reductions to MVFR or IFR. A few stronger storms are possible. Breezy winds gusting to 18-25kts today drop to around 8-10kts sustained overnight, then become breezy again tomorrow. Dry weather is forecast later tonight into tomorrow with rain beginning to re-enter the picture in the west at the end of the TAF period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for ILZ075- 081-085. MO...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ100. IN...None. KY...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for KYZ007>009-011-012. && $$ UPDATE...ATL DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...ATL  121 FXUS65 KSLC 181739 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1139 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation from a Pacific Northwest storm system will continue to taper off today. In its wake, temperatures will be more typical of early March than mid-May, with highs up to 20F below seasonal normals. - Freeze conditions will impact many Utah valleys outside of the Wasatch Front again Tuesday morning. Areas that will see the greatest impacts include west central Utah, southwest Utah, the Wasatch Back, Cache Valley, the western Uinta Basin, and the Sanpete and Sevier valleys. - Temperatures will gradually warm for the remainder of the week, reaching values up to 10F above seasonal normals by Saturday. Conditions will be generally dry, with the exception of northeast portions of the forecast area on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...The cold upper trough that has been moving across Utah and southwest Wyoming is making its way into Colorado this morning. Precipitation over the area has mostly diminished, with the exception of southwest Wyoming and the mountains of northern Utah. Precipitation is expected to mostly end by the afternoon hours, with one last trailing wave keeping enough lingering moisture and instability in place for a few showers over the higher terrain of northern Utah. High temperatures today will be up to 20F below seasonal normals, making it feel a lot more like early March than mid-May. The area saw patches of below freezing temperatures across many valleys, particularly for western and central Utah. With clouds clearing out for tonight, low temperatures will be a bit colder than yesterday, resulting in more widespread freeze conditions. Have expanded the Freeze Warning for tomorrow morning into Castle Country, with the threat otherwise being covered well. Conditions will be generally dry for the remainder of the week, with temperatures creeping upward, eventually to values up to 10F above seasonal normals by the weekend. That being said, the Pacific ridge will remain centered offshore, and its position will periodically allow weak troughs to move over the top of the ridge into Utah and southwest Wyoming. The most notable of these will be on Thursday, and this feature has trended stronger in today's suite of guidance. Thus precipitation, generally light, is now looking increasing likely for at least northeastern portions of the forecast area during the day Thursday, with the trough curbing warming for that day. By the weekend, the Pacific ridge finally has a good chance of tracking eastward, eventually overheard, which is why conditions will be most dry and mild during that time per the latest forecast. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Areas of rain showers and low-based clouds will prevail over the KSLC terminal through the early to mid- afternoon hours before drying out through the remainder of the day. Though VFR conditions will prevail, CIGs will remain at, or below, 5kft AGL, obscuring local topography. There is also around a 30% chance that these showers are heavy enough to reduce surface visibility to 5SM or less. Otherwise, expect persistent north to northwest winds through at least 22-23Z, with around a 30-40% chance of becoming light southerly or variable thereafter. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Rain/ snow showers will continue across the northern half of the area through the afternoon hours, bringing continued mountain obscuration and areas of IFR to LIFR conditions in snowfall in southwest Wyoming. Skies will gradually clear, especially along and west of the I-15 corridor, through the mid to late-afternoon hours. Expect breezy north to northwest winds across much of the area through the afternoon hours, returning to light terrain driven flows after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER...Lingering showers from the unseasonably cold system that moved across the state yesterday into this morning will continue into the afternoon, with generally dry conditions prevailing for the remainder of the upcoming week. Temperatures will gradually warm over the next several days, with highs averaging 10F above seasonal normals by the upcoming weekend. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ107-108-114>116-118>120-122. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ112. WY...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for WYZ021. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan AVIATION...Webber For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  094 FXUS66 KHNX 181738 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1038 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Low relative humidities in the lower elevations of Central California brings at least a moderate risk of Fire Danger this week. 2. Red Flag Warning in effect for the San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills of the Coastal Range through Monday evening with a Major Risk of Fire Danger expected to continue due to low relative humidity. 3. Warming trend throughout the week. 3. Practice safety around area lakes, rivers, and streams as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... The inside slider trough that brought the gusty winds over the weekend has begun to move eastward into Nevada and Utah. There will still be breezy conditions today with winds forecasted to be between 5-10 MPH within the Valley itself. In addition to that, there is still low relative humidity (less than 20 percent) values across the San Joaquin Valley. Because of this, the Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for the SJV until tonight at 8PM. Tuesday looks to begin the warm up across the valley, which will last through the end of the week. By Wednesday, there is a 90 percent chance to meet and exceed temperatures of 90 degrees throughout the entire Valley. There is a 10 percent chance to meet and exceed the mid 90s as well. Come Friday, there will be a 10 percent chance to meet and exceed temperatures of 100 degrees throughout the Valley. So while we cannot rule out these highs of 100, they are unexpected. In conjunction with that, there is low relative humidities once again, so take precautions as fire danger will continue to exist throughout the week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low relative humidity (RH) values today, along with breezy conditions in the San Joaquin Valley and the West Side Hills along the Coastal Range today. There will be threats for fast- moving grass fires in these areas. Minimum RH values will persist as well, with most areas being under 15 percent RH. As such, the Red Flag Warning continues to be in effect until 8 PM Monday. Winds are not forecasted to be as strong as they were over the weekend. A warming and drying trend will be moving into Central California later this week. The RH in the valley areas are expected to be less than 15 percent until Thursday. This leads to elevated fire weather throughout the week. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ579-580. && $$ public...BB aviation....BB weather.gov/hanford  197 FXUS61 KOKX 181741 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 141 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes, with hot weather expected thru Wed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summerlike temperatures through Wednesday 2) A cold front moves across Wednesday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Brief gusty winds and locally heavy rain possible. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... No major changes to the hot fcst thru Wed. Kept with the previous trend of going a bit blw the NBM which is believed to be too warm. Went with a 50/50 blend of the MAV and NBM to accomplish this. The shallow backdoor cold front looks to have little impact on temps today aside from ern areas and LI, where onshore flow may limit highs a bit. Otherwise the hot airmass continues to build in. Depending on where the numbers end up today, there is a chance some of the usually warmer spots may need a heat advy based on the two-day 95 degree criteria. In addition, temps could spike on Wed ahead of the front. Guidance often has a tough time getting hot enough invof a front, especially a few days out. Despite that bias, the MAV/NBM blend still has a high of 94 for KNYC on Wed. .KEY MESSAGE 2... It looks increasingly likely that a cold fropa will occur during the day on Wed. The actual timing will be critical. Low moisture but sufficient instability and no CIN should allow for tstms to develop invof the front assuming a daytime passage. The best upr support is to the north, but there will be falling heights nonetheless. Primary severe threat based on the setup appears to be downburst winds with relatively high based storms attm. DCAPE in the NAM supports this with peak values around 1500J/kg modeled. There could be some hail as well with the dry air entrainment. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid to upper 60s and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A warm front lifts north of the region today. High pressure remains over the western Atlantic with a frontal system over the mid section of the country. T VFR through the TAF period. Southerly winds this afternoon increase to around 10kt with a some locations G15-18kt. Winds diminish tonight to under 10 kt from the S/SW. Winds are expected to increase once again on Tuesday with gusts once again to near 20kt. Gusts may be more occasional at times. ...NYMetro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday: VFR. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt into eve. Isolated thunderstorm potential afternoon into early eve, mainly north of NYC terminals with brief MVFR or lower possible. Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible. NW windshift in the evening. Thursday: Mainly VFR. Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain blw SCA lvls today. Winds will increase tngt, with SCA cond possible on Tue, especially on the ocean. The threat for SCA winds and seas continues on Wed as a cold front passes, then winds and seas are modeled to remain blw advy lvls Thu and Fri. There could be some strong tstms invof the cold front on Wed. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 17: KEWR: 68/2015 KBDR: 60/2025 KNYC: 70/1906 KLGA: 68/1965 KJFK: 63/1965 KISP: 62/2015 May 18: KEWR: 74/2017 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 75/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 65/2017 KISP: 63/1977 May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007- 009>011. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075- 176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ004- 006-103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...BC MARINE...  200 FXUS65 KABQ 181741 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1141 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1133 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread continues today with the most critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions focused over eastern New Mexico. - Hazardous crosswinds will impact high profile vehicles along with lowering visibility due to blowing dust this afternoon. - Afternoon thunderstorm activity increases over eastern New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A stout 100-110kt H3 jetmax, sampled by the Reno WFO on the prior 00Z sounding, continues to dig south and southeastward over Area 51 northwest of Las Vegas, NV this hour. Southwesterly winds ahead of this system over AZ/NM continues to strengthen in response to this H5 low closing off and deepening over NV/UT this morning. Most of these winds remain aloft just above the surface but have and will continue to waffle up and down in altitude, at times reaching the surface in erratic fashion. The ABQ Sunport has seen some of these erratic wind speeds already tonight at times gusting to 30 mph before subsiding again. A day of strong winds gusting 30 to 45 mph, peaking in strength to 50 to 55 mph along and immediately east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts remains on track. Numerical model guidance continues to show the main jetmax and vortlobe rounding the southern periphery of the H5 low over northern NM by 12pm MDT today before quickly ejecting northeastward over the Great Plains late today and tonight. This timing just misses peak diurnal heating and mixing to fully realize the highest wind potential. As such, while it won't be surprising to see a few gusts reach high wind thresholds of > 58mph along the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mts and perhaps a stray spot along the northeastern highlands, confidence was not high enough to fully upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning with this forecast package. Wind Advisories were instead hoisted across the northeastern quadrant of the state from Taos and the Sangre de Cristo's eastward and from I-40 northward. Hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles and localized blowing dust threatening low visibility will be the main travel impacts this afternoon. Any precipitation associated with this system will barely skirt the far northern tier of the state along the CO border. Wind speeds quickly taper off past sunset this evening as the aforementioned H5 low opens and quickly exits the region. Left in its wake will be a potent cold front backing southward through eastern NM Monday night into Tuesday morning. Gusty northerly winds up to 25 to 35 mph will push in behind the front, aided by a quick 3hr 9-12mb increase in MSLP. This will be a concern for any fire suppression activities over eastern NM given the initial sudden wind shift. The good news is that winds will decrease further through Tuesday morning before shifting easterly then southeasterly over eastern NM. Drier southerly to southwesterly winds return to a good portion of the highlands, having never left western NM and the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday afternoon, but at a significantly lower speed relative to Monday. A few stray showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm if any would favor the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, another dry day for many aside from the increase in humidity over eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Wednesday begins the long term with a tricky meteorological forecast over eastern NM. The aforementioned cold front that backs through eastern NM Tuesday will see winds veer southeasterly across eastern NM. The question however is whether or not return flow from the Gulf will bring in warmer air and higher dewpoints in the upper 50s into eastern NM Wednesday, or if the subtly drier continental airmass further north with its lower dewpoints in the 40s holds on? The warmer and higher moisture GFS solution would favor a higher instability and chances for subsequent afternoon thunderstorm activity along a sharpening dryline over eastern NM Wednesday afternoon. The more stable NAM solution would likely favor a blanket of low stratus loitering over eastern NM much of the day suppressing chances for afternoon convection. A middle ground compromise (deterministic Canadian solution) was chosen for this forecast package where the boundary b/w the higher moisture Gulf return flow and continental airmass is faded somewhere through east-central NM with some afternoon convection favored along the dryline along the highlands immediately east of the central mountain chain. While western NM stays high and dry, eastern NM will see low level moisture attempt to push westward again into parts of the Rio Grande Valley through the gaps of the central mountain chain. How much will likely depend on coverage and strength of any convective outflow boundaries occurring from any convective activity over eastern NM Wednesday evening. This will determine how widespread any afternoon convective activity will be over the eastern third of NM Thursday. Modest westerlies associated with a shortwave trough trekking eastward over WY/CO will shunt low-level moisture back east into the TX/OK Panhandles by Friday. This shuts down precipitation chances for much of eastern NM except the furthest northeastern corner in Union County. A subsequent cold front backing southward through eastern NM in the wake of the exiting shortwave trough will replenish moisture over eastern NM next weekend. This will return the two-faced pattern of weather over NM with western areas remaining high and dry with chances for afternoon thunderstorm activity over eastern NM. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Winds will pose the primary aviation weather hazard through this evening along with areas of reduced visibility in blowing dust. Southwest gusts of 35 to 45 kt will be common this afternoon with the highest gusts concentrated over the central to northeast highlands (KCQC, KLVS, KRTN, and KCAO). Visibility reductions are generally forecast to stay within a MVFR range (3 to 5 SM), but a few localized lower reductions cannot be ruled out in dust prone areas or near recently plowed fields. A fast-moving cold front will sweep into the eastern half of New Mexico tonight, causing winds to shift in direction with northerly gusts of 25 to 40 kt accompanying. These winds will eventually turn and spill into KABQ and KSAF shortly after dawn Tuesday, gradually decreasing by noon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 ...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE GROWING PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY... Southwesterly to westerly winds strengthen in earnest this morning gusting 30 to 45 mph with peak gusts reaching 50 to 55+ mph along and east of the Sangre de Cristo's. The exception will be moderately weaker westerlies in far northwestern NM where a few stray showers may skirt the CO border. Otherwise, the winds will combine with widespread humidity falling to 10 to 15 percent with 6 to 11 hours of single-digit humidity in the lower Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains to produce widespread critical fire weather conditions. Extremely critical conditions will exist where the strongest winds coincide with the lowest single-digit humidity over east-central and northeastern NM. Winds quickly retreat from their peak speeds this evening with the exception of far eastern NM where gusty northerly to northeasterly winds behind an advancing cold front will bring a sudden wind shift late this evening and overnight into Tuesday morning. Timing of this sudden wind shift will be a main concern for any ongoing suppression activities through eastern NM. Otherwise, the good news is cooler temperatures and better recoveries heading into Tuesday once winds calm. Breezy to at times windy southwesterlies return Tuesday afternoon, pushing back this moisture toward TX and CO and producing elevated to locally critical conditions in portions of the Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ. A stronger westward push of low-level moisture pushes a dry line westward to or through the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley. This will create a dichotomy of dry elevated fire weather conditions over western NM each day with higher moisture and chances for afternoon thunderstorm activity across eastern NM Wednesday and Thursday. Central portions along the central mountain chain and the Rio Grande Valley will be in flux with likely good overnight recoveries with drying conditions during the afternoons. Friday sees drier westerlies punch eastward toward the TX line before higher low-level moisture returns to eastern NM next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 68 39 75 43 / 30 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 63 30 71 37 / 50 0 10 10 Cuba............................ 67 38 72 42 / 0 0 10 10 Gallup.......................... 68 34 74 37 / 0 0 5 0 El Morro........................ 67 38 73 41 / 0 0 10 5 Grants.......................... 72 37 78 40 / 0 0 10 5 Quemado......................... 72 40 75 43 / 0 0 5 0 Magdalena....................... 77 46 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 71 41 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 75 38 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 80 43 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 57 30 65 36 / 50 0 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 70 46 71 50 / 0 0 10 10 Pecos........................... 73 40 69 43 / 0 0 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 37 67 42 / 0 0 10 20 Red River....................... 59 31 60 33 / 0 0 10 30 Angel Fire...................... 63 23 64 32 / 0 0 20 20 Taos............................ 69 34 72 42 / 0 0 10 20 Mora............................ 70 36 65 41 / 0 0 10 20 Espanola........................ 77 43 78 46 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 73 45 73 48 / 0 0 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 43 77 46 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 80 52 80 54 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 53 81 55 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 83 45 83 49 / 0 0 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 81 51 81 53 / 0 0 10 5 Belen........................... 86 49 85 50 / 0 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 81 49 82 52 / 0 0 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 84 46 84 48 / 0 0 10 5 Corrales........................ 82 49 82 52 / 0 0 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 84 48 84 49 / 0 0 10 5 Placitas........................ 78 49 79 52 / 0 0 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 80 50 81 53 / 0 0 10 5 Socorro......................... 88 52 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 46 75 49 / 0 0 10 10 Tijeras......................... 77 46 77 49 / 0 0 10 10 Edgewood........................ 77 42 76 46 / 0 0 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 79 39 78 41 / 0 0 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 75 42 71 44 / 0 0 5 20 Mountainair..................... 78 44 77 46 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 77 46 77 47 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 80 53 79 53 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 72 44 73 44 / 0 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 74 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 30 Raton........................... 76 36 66 42 / 0 0 0 40 Springer........................ 79 39 69 43 / 0 0 0 30 Las Vegas....................... 74 39 66 43 / 0 0 0 30 Clayton......................... 84 39 66 43 / 0 0 0 30 Roy............................. 79 41 68 44 / 0 0 0 30 Conchas......................... 89 47 76 49 / 0 0 0 30 Santa Rosa...................... 85 45 76 48 / 0 0 0 30 Tucumcari....................... 91 48 78 50 / 0 0 0 30 Clovis.......................... 90 47 78 51 / 0 0 0 30 Portales........................ 92 49 81 51 / 0 0 0 30 Fort Sumner..................... 89 48 81 51 / 0 0 0 30 Roswell......................... 92 56 86 57 / 0 0 0 20 Picacho......................... 84 52 80 51 / 0 0 0 20 Elk............................. 80 50 79 49 / 0 0 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106-109- 121>126. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ210-212>216-223- 226>234. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...52  256 FXUS62 KGSP 181742 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 142 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rainfall totals have trended down Thursday through Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A summer-like pattern will continue through mid-week, with above normal temperatures. Chances for mountain diurnal convection increase Wednesday as a front approaches. 2. A cold front will bring better rain chances Thursday into the weekend but with only light rainfall amounts expected, any drought relief will be limited. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: A summer-like pattern will continue through mid-week, with above normal temperatures. Chances for mountain diurnal convection increase Wednesday as a front approaches. An upper level ridge will persist along the East Coast, with a Bermuda high supporting persistent southerly low level flow through mid-week. Despite the southerly flow, profiles will remain somewhat dry until later Wednesday, with surface dewpoints forecast to mix out into the 50s this afternoon and again Tue afternoon. As such, diurnal instability will be muted, and very little-to-no diurnal convection is anticipated through Tue evening. Temperatures will otherwise remain 6-8 degrees above climo through Wed. By late Wednesday, the ridge will begin to weaken as a strong short wave trough passes through eastern Canada and New England. The leading edge of an attendant/weak frontal zone is forecast to approach the southern Appalachians by late Wed afternoon...introducing sufficient convergence and pooling moisture to enhance diurnal convective chances across the mountains. In fact...likely PoPs are forecast for much of the NC mountains by 00Z Thu. Shear parameters will remain quite weak across our area, and instability is forecast to be fairly modest, so the threat for severe storms will be very low. Key message 2: A cold front will bring better rain chances Thursday into the weekend but with only light rainfall amounts expected, any drought relief will be limited. A cold front will track across the forecast area Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning before stalling over the Carolinas on Friday. The front will then reactivate as a warm front and lift northward over the weekend, stalling over the Ohio Valley/Mid- Atlantic through early next week. This front will bring better rain chances than we have seen in a while but it appears that an upper ridge could build back over the Southeast faster than anticipated this weekend into early next week which could act to suppress shower and thunderstorm activity. Thus, confidence on PoPs this weekend remains low. We should get a better idea on PoPs once high-res guidance becomes available later in the week. The main change from the previous forecast is that QPF has trended lower this forecast cycle, with the NBM now showing most locations seeing 1" or less of rainfall Thursday into the weekend. There still remains the potential for some locally higher rainfall amounts >1" along the NC/TN border and along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Although any rain will be beneficial, these amounts will not do much to improve the ongoing drought. Any severe potential continues to look low through the period. Above normal highs stick around on Thursday before below normal highs return briefly on Friday as cold air damming develops behind the front. The 06Z GFS is trending a bit stronger regarding the wedge so afternoon temps on Friday may trend cooler if this trend continues. CAD lingers through the first half of Saturday before eroding (per the 06Z GFS) so highs on Saturday should end up near normal to just above normal. Highs will end up a few degrees above normal on both Sunday and Monday. Lows each night will remain a few to several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: While low level moisture continues to slowly increase, conditions remain fairly dry in the relative sense, and convective-free weather and VFR conditions are forecast to persist at the TAF sites through the period. Otherwise, FEW/SCT cumulus, mainly in the 035-050 range are expected this afternoon. Winds will remain S/SW at 5-10 kts through much of the period. Outlook: VFR to persist through mid-week, except perhaps in mountain valleys, where patchy morning fog/low stratus may develop each morning. Increasing moisture will bring a more active pattern for mainly diurnal convection beginning late Wednesday, continuing through the end of the week. The potential for overnight fog/low clouds will increase as well. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ AR/JDL  252 FXUS63 KLBF 181742 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1242 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cool, raw day is in store for western Nebraska Monday as daytime highs remain 20-30F below normal and light rain crosses the area. - Cooler overnight lows Monday and Tuesday night may lead to the potential for at least patchy frost/freeze conditions west of Highway 83. - Periodic light precipitation potential will persist through the upcoming week as daytime highs climb to seasonable and then above normal values by the late weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Early this morning, scattered showers were lifting north and east across the Sandhills and portions of the Nebraska Panhandle. This was associated with a weak impulse located around h7 ejecting ahead of the parent trough situated across the Great Basin. Light rain is possible beneath this activity as low level humidity remains fairly high within a post frontal airmass. Temperatures largely sit in the upper 40s to lower 50s with breezy north winds. Cloud cover should keep temperatures from falling too significantly though morning lows will still reach 5-10F below normal for late May. Monday/Monday Night...northerly low-level flow will persist through the daytime across western Nebraska. The frontal inversion will support cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions for the bulk of the daytime and combined with persistent cold air advection, should keep temperatures in check across the region. Afternoon highs will likely only reach the lower 40s in the northwest to near 50F in our far south and east. These values will approach 30F below normal for mid- May and when factoring in steady north winds gusting 20 to 30 mph, feels like temperatures will struggle to climb out of the lower 30s for portions of the area. Main upper trough will begin to pivot by midday as it crosses the central Rockies to the west. This will lead to a fairly expansive area of thunderstorms along a stalled frontal boundary and associated baroclinic zone draped in southeast Nebraska. It is here where the Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5) extending south into Kansas and folks with interests in these locations should check for local information regarding this threat from reliable sources. Further west in the local area, the cooler temperatures will all be prevent the threat for severe weather. While MUCAPE may approach 500 j/kg, perhaps enough for a rumble of thunder across central Nebraska, severe weather is not anticipated west or north of the Tri- Cities. Lift via increasing height falls, cyclonic vorticity advection, and frontal forcing should lead to expanding precipitation primarily for the Panhandle into portions of north central Nebraska. PoPs should gradually increase this afternoon with the highest probabilities arriving by early evening. Even with the cooler temperatures, precipitation is expected to fall as rain with colder air waiting to filter in until precipitation has departed. Rates should be slow and steady given primarily synoptic lift and limited if any instability. The result is showery activity overtop the widespread stratus. HREF probability matched mean (PMM) output suggests most locations see < 0.10" outside the Panhandle and our far northern counties. The going forecast matches this well with most locations seeing < 0.05" save for the Pine Ridge vicinity where closer to 0.20" seems plausible. Precipitation exits the area shortly after Midnight tonight with temperatures then falling to the upper 20s in the west to middle 30s east. The going forecast lows of 32F and 33F at North Platte and Valentine respectively fall into the lowest 10% of observed values for the May 19 date. Will defer to later forecasts for potential Frost/Freeze headlines but believe these will be necessary given recent updates of susceptible vegetation. Tuesday/Tuesday Night...behind departing trough, mid-level heights will begin to build quickly across the region. Surface high pressure will nose in from the west and support steady northwesterly winds. Increasing h85 temperatures and downsloping flow should produce a warmer day as temperatures look to return to the upper 50s to lower 60s. Subsidence aloft will allow for eroding clouds and dry conditions. High pressure will settle to the east and return southerly flow should become established by late evening. Cloud cover should increase as a result with subtle moisture advection over the High Plains. Forecast lows remain on par with Monday night's forecast values so additional Frost headlines may need to be considered if the current forecast holds. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The extended pattern will generally favor warming temperatures with periodic rain and thunderstorm potential. Southwesterly flow should return by mid week as modest troughing forms west of the Continental Divide. Moisture should increase across the area and set the stage for low-end PoPs periodically. Temperatures should moderate steadily with NBM median MaxT and MinT values showing 4-6F day-over-day climbs. Given the expected daytime temperatures returning to seasonable and then abnormally warm values, believe any precipitation potential will likely come in the form of thunderstorms. Generally weak mid-level flow will likely limit the threat for any widespread severe weather event at this time. An approaching trough on Friday may pose the greatest potential for western Nebraska as a cool front moves out of the Northern Plains. NBM matches this timeframe with 10-20% potential for seeing > 0.25" precipitation but greater probabilities are apparent east of the local area. Beyond Friday, drier conditions appear likely as precipitable water values fall off and upper-level ridging builds across the Western CONUS. NBM probabilities for exceeding 90F climbs by late weekend, with probabilities reaching 20-40% by Sunday and 40- 70% by Monday. Higher percentile outputs suggest mid to upper 90s for these days, but inner-quartile spreads remain reasonably large so certainty is low at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Mostly MVFR with local IFR ceilings will continue through the afternoon into most of tonight across western and north central Nebraska. Scatttered showers will be possible through this evening. Conditions will improve after 12Z Tuesday morning with skies becoming clear. Surface winds will be north at 10-20 kts through this evening then decreasing after 06Z Tuesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMJ LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...Taylor  475 FXUS63 KDMX 181745 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1245 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of severe storms this evening. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible as a line of storms moves west to east across the state. - Cooler and dry through the middle of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Showers and thunderstorms continue to push east across Iowa early this morning. While the line of storms was initially robust in western Iowa last evening, producing damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, early this morning the cold pool has surged out ahead of the storms and weakened the storms significantly. Drying on the backside of the decaying MCS has resulted for wake low type winds to develop, with recent gusts of 40-50+ mph occurring. We will be watching this closely through the morning as a similar set up yesterday resulted in even stronger gusts. So far those have yet to materialize and this line is more progressive than yesterday's storms in southern Iowa. No hydro problems have been identified with the storms overnight tonight with the progressive nature of the line helping to reduce residence time over any single location. These storms are tied to a surface low currently centered over north central Iowa and south central Minnesota that will continue to move east this morning and through today. Meanwhile the primary surface low is centered across the panhandle of Oklahoma and southwest Kansas early this morning. This will eject northeast today as the upper level trough finally kicks east. This will serve as the impetus for convective initiation once again this afternoon, and will be the final round in this four day stretch of severe weather across Iowa. Evolution and expectations for severe storms will be outlined below, however it is important to note first that the ongoing/diminishing MCS across Iowa this morning will impact the evolution of storms later today. Storm strength this afternoon into Iowa will depend on how quickly the atmosphere can recover and how far north theta e advection can surge back north into the state after the cold pool shoves that boundary south. CAMs indicate that the atmosphere should recover by late this afternoon with soundings largely uncapped across most of central and southern Iowa. This uncapped environment has 3000-3500+ J/kg of SBCAPE along with well curved hodographs through the low to mid levels. SRH values of 300-400 m2/s2 in the 0-3 km layer, 250-300 m2/s2 in the 0-1 km layer, and 200+ m2/s2 in the 0-500 m layer will be more than sufficient to maintain rotating updrafts through the mid levels and helicity for potential tornadogenesis in the low levels. The streamwise factor is also around 0.03-0.04 for storms to ingest efficiently. While shear/rotational factors are certainly in place for tornado genesis, low level instability is somewhat lacking. SBCAPE is quite high, but much of that is through the mid levels with steep 8C/km lapse rates. Low level 0-3 km CAPE is much lower at under 50 J/kg. Less low level stretching could help to limit tornadogenesis, but certainly cannot be counted on in an otherwise volatile environment. Storms are expected to initiate in eastern Nebraska around 21z and move into southwest Iowa around 22- 00z. The line will continue to push east across the state. The low level jet will strengthen after 00z, helping to maintain storms into central Iowa through 06z. Storms are expected to diminish in strength as they move east around and after 06z tonight. There is deep moisture transport into the area ahead of the upper level trough with PWATs of 1.5-1.75" across the area which should support efficient rainfall across the area this evening. The good news here is that the line of storms remains progressive and should limit most hydro concerns. Even so, pockets of 2-3" may be possible in southern Iowa where storms are more initially discrete/clusters before growing upscale and lining out across central Iowa. Given multiple rounds of precipitation over the last several days, capacity has diminished some, though most areas should still be able to handle the expected QPF. Primary areas of concern would be any heavy rain pockets that set up over towns. Widespread flash flooding is not anticipated to be a concern. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 342 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 A much needed break from the active weather stretch begins on Tuesday as a high pressure nudges into the region later Tuesday into Wednesday. Mid-level winds behind the departing system Monday night also turn out of the north to northwest ushering in cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s to 60s on Tuesday through Thursday and lows Wednesday and Thursday mornings in the upper 30s to 40s. Winds on Tuesday will remain elevated through much of the daytime with a tight pressure gradient still in place with sustained winds out of the northwest 15-25 mph, and gusts to near 30 mph in the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms then return to the forecast from later Thursday into Friday as an upper trough crosses the Central Plains with a developing surface low reaching towards the area into Friday. Additional details to come in the next several days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Low stratus clouds are producing IFR ceilings across much of northwest IA and MVFR ceilings into central IA early this afternoon. These will eventually spread eastward this evening and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered SHRA/TSRA also expected this evening and overnight, with TSRA most likely between about 00Z and 06Z and SHRA more likely thereafter. Have attempted to time convective trends and maintained targeted TEMPO groups for TSRA, but expect updates/amendments later today. Widespread low ceilings around FL007-012 then expected later tonight, with winds turning to NW and increasing behind the front. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 5 PM CDT this afternoon through Tuesday morning for IAZ092>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...Lee  478 FXUS63 KFSD 181745 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1245 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms return to the area by early this afternoon, continuing through this evening into tonight. - A few storms along and southeast of a Wayne to Sheldon to Windom line may be strong to severe late this afternoon into this evening. Confidence in this risk is low. - Cool conditions prevail this week. Dry weather expected mid week. Another round of storms is possible Thursday through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Temperatures this morning range from the mid 40s to the mid 60s from west to east. Lows tonight fall to the upper 30s to mid 50s, although areas west of the James River may stay a bit warmer than the upper 30s if stratus lingers longer into the overnight hours, as some models hint at. Still seeing breezy winds with gusts to 30 mph at times. Focus shifts to the next wave progged to move out of the Rockies late this afternoon through tonight, as well as the preceding WAA and weak vorticity lobe. Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop this morning across NE and lift northward into our area by the afternoon hours. Showers and isolated storms continue through the evening/overnight hours, tapering down from west to east as the 700mb trough moves across the area. A few isolated strong to severe storms are possible along and southeast of a line from Wayne to Sheldon to Windom, mainly from 4 to 9 PM. Confidence is low in the chances for severe weather, as there are a few questions. One, how much do skies clear during the day, especially with latest guidance showing stratus remaining in place through the early afternoon? Two, depending on cloud cover, how much can the atmosphere recover from yesterday's storms? Finally, where do any boundaries end up today, and how quickly does the elevated front move east? If we are able to get a stronger storm or two to develop, hail to ping pong ball size (1.5") and wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threats. If we have a surface boundary or get a surface based storm (more likely if we're able to clear out today), a tornado cannot be ruled out, although risk is low. Heavy rain in thunderstorms may cause some localized flooding issues if storms track over the same areas which received heavy rain over the weekend. Stay aware for possible warnings later today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The short-term convective outlook presents a highly volatile spring severe weather setup. Latest surface analysis shows a complex pattern, anchored by a strong 994 mb low over northwest KS. An inverted trough extended north of the low through central SD, while a well-defined warm front stretched northeast of the low into east central NE. A weaker low was also noted in north central NE. Visible satellite imagery revealed stable wave clouds advancing northeast over far northeast NE and extreme SE SD, ahead of the advancing warm front. Regional radar imagery showed a complex of strong to severe storms over north central NE. This storm complex is forecast by short range guidance to continue tracking east this afternoon, intensifying as interacts with the richer low- level moisture pool near and south of the warm front. Moderate to strong instability will be in place over the southern to eastern CWA by late afternoon with MLCAPE nearing 3000 J/kg. In addition, deep layer shear will increase to around 50 kt, coincident with a mid level speed max ejecting from the deep upper trough to our west. As the system evolves over the next several hours, it appears the ingredients for a significant severe weather event will be most favored over the southern to eastern CWA. Ahead of the main convective line, some CAMs show supercell development along the northward advancing warm front. These storms would present a risk of very large hail (2"+) and tornadoes. Given the amount of low level SRH/curved hodographs present, a couple strong tornadoes are possible. The convective cluster currently entering our far southwest CWA should strengthen as it shifts east, with an initial hail and tornado threat transitioning to a damaging straight line wind threat (70+ MPH) as it grows upscale into a squall line/QLCS. Some line-embedded QLCS tornadoes are possible, especially for any line segments that become oriented north/south or northwest/southeast, given southwesterly 0-3 km shear vectors. Timing from latest high-res guidance suggests this activity exits to the east of our CWA late this evening. Precipitation amounts will vary significantly based on convective tracks, though NBM guidance and HREF probability match mean fields project a widespread 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rainfall, particularly across northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. On Monday, the cold front finally pushes into the area. Instability and shear are forecast to be much lower than today, however, there will be a conditional risk of severe storms over the eastern CWA during the late afternoon to evening, if the airmass can destabilize sufficiently ahead of the front. SPC's Day 2 outlook indicates as Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5), for our MN and IA counties. Behind the departing upper wave, quasi-zonal flow sets up for Tuesday and Wednesday, yielding quiet conditions and seasonally cool high temperatures moderating from the upper 50s Tuesday to mid-upper 60s Wednesday. The next upper wave moves in for the Thursday to Friday period, however Gulf moisture remains cutoff ahead of this system. Evaluating the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) reveals no significant climatological anomalies for precipitation or wind across the upper Midwest during this period, reinforcing the the idea of a low-impact system for our area. The current forecast sticks closely to the NBM consensus, maintaining broad 20-30 percent probabilities for light rain for late Thursday into Saturday. By late this week and especially this weekend, temperatures will embark on a steady upward trajectory, as the mid level flow backs west, then southwest. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 day outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, which supports blended guidance high temperatures reaching well into the 80s on Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Widespread stratus, mai.nly IFR but occasionally MVFR, will persist through much of the night, but gradually improve later tonight into Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon into the early evening, then gradually diminish through the early overnight hours. The strongest thunderstorms will be in parts of northwest IA, with the better chance from 5 pm through 9 pm. A few of these storms could contain hail. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION... AVIATION...08  558 FXUS63 KICT 181747 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1247 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon through overnight. All severe weather hazards possible, including large hail, damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and heavy rainfall. Greatest chances for severe weather will be over central KS. - Warm and windy today, with cooler weather tonight through Thursday. - Periodic on-and-off shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday night through the weekend. A few bouts of strong to severe storms along with heavy rainfall are possible, but widespread severe weather potential appears low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: PREDAWN HOURS--THIS MORNING...Remnant outflow boundary from current central-northeast KS thunderstorm complex is expected to lay out generally along the Highway 50 to Highway 54 corridor through this morning, before retreating back northward this afternoon. A strong low-level jet impinging on this boundary should support continued festering showers/thunderstorms across central and east-central KS during the predawn hours, shifting east into east-central KS and western Missouri this morning. Really like the HRRR's depiction of this activity, which keeps it mostly north of Highway 54. Thinking the primary concerns will be marginally severe hail (at worst) and areas of heavy rain and associated flooding concerns. MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON--TONIGHT...Otherwise, attention then turns to this afternoon-evening, when a sharp dryline/cold front combo ahead of an ejecting shortwave trough will be the focus for scattered to numerous thunderstorm development. Thinking initiation will occur by 3-4pm over central KS, with storms expanding in coverage and spreading south-southeast during the evening and overnight. Further south, can't rule out an isolated dryline storm over south-central KS, but thinking those chances are lower given slightly more capping and weaker forcing. Strong to extreme fat instability coupled with 35-45 kts of deep layer shear oriented mostly parallel to the boundary should support a rather messy storm mode, with clusters of supercells early on gradually transitioning to linear with embedded supercell structures with time. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats before about 7-8pm, along with the potential for a few supercell tornadoes given strengthening low-level shear. Reason- being, it's during this time (i.e. 3-8pm) storms will have the greatest chance of being discrete or semi-discrete. Additionally, we could also see a handful of landspout tornadoes during this time across mainly central KS, given the expected strong low-level vorticity along the slow-moving boundary combined with the extreme buoyancy. As we head past 7-8pm or so, thinking the potential for both supercell and landspout tornadoes along with very large hail should start to decrease given the likely transition to mostly linear convection as the cold front picks up steam to the southeast, with the primary threats likely being golfball size hail or less, along with a damaging wind risk as storms trudge into south-central and southeast KS Can't rule out a few brief embedded tornadic circulations within this linear activity given the very strong low- level shear, but the overall tornado threat should lessen once the transition to linear storm mode occurs. Finally, another threat with this activity will be locally very heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns, especially over central KS before 8pm when storms have the potential to train over the same areas due to the stalled nature of the frontal zone. WEDNESDAY NIGHT--WEEKEND...Periodic on-and-off shower/thunderstorm chances are possible mid week through the weekend, as a handful of low-amplitude shortwaves traverse Mid-America amidst returning low- level moisture. Thinking there will be some opportunities for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall during this period, although widespread severe weather appears unlikely. There's quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding this period, stay tuned. WIND: Strong south winds will continue today, as low pressure continues to deepen to the west. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to around 45-50 mph are likely. Will continue the inherited wind advisory from mid this morning into this evening. TEMPERATURES: Southerly flow and above average heights/thickness will support continued above average temperatures through today, with overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s and daytime highs in the 80s and 90s. A strong cold front will blast south across the region tonight, supporting near to below average temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, with daytime highs in the 60s-70s and overnight lows in the 40s-50s. Deterministic and ensemble consensus shows a warming trend from late week through next weekend and beyond. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A frontal boundary was stalled over central Kansas and expecting severe storms to develop after 19Z along the front. The storms will then migrate slowly southward for the rest of the afternoon into tonight. Gusty south winds will persist until the cold front passes through. Low clouds will begin to fill in behind the front along with increasing north winds. A line of showers and storms will push southward into south central Kansas around 8pm then shift east of the Kansas turnpike after 11pm. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ051>053- 067>070-082-083-091>094-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...CDJ  577 FXUS63 KOAX 181747 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1247 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for more severe weather today, mainly across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Large hail, damaging winds, strong tornadoes, and flash flooding will all be possible. - Cooler weather moves in on Tuesday with potential for morning frost for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday. - Another active pattern may set up going into next weekend with chances for more storms, and possibly severe weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Today and Tonight... We had a deceivingly cool, cloudy start to the day. Temperatures this morning started off in the 50s at 9 AM, and dipped into the upper 40s over northeast Nebraska. Farther south, however, Falls City had already warmed to 70 degrees, on the warm side of a cold front draped from Beatrice, to Offutt AFB, towards Shelby, IA. Spotty showers and a few rumbles of thunder developed behind the boundary this morning. A strong shortwave trough will continue to eject eastward this afternoon, bringing forcing for large-scale ascent. Despite the lingering cloud cover, very steep lapse rates aloft and daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass will likely support strong instability south of the cold front. Mesoanalysis depicting strong thetaE advection from central Kansas through southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa depicted the abrupt resurgence of a volatile airmass. Storms have already begun to fire on the warm side of the boundary over northwest Kansas, and are expected to develop over far southeast Nebraska by 2 PM this afternoon. Initial isolated supercells will have the greatest potential for producing strong, potentially violent tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds, with the greatest risk in far southeast Nebraska. By 4 or 5 PM, CAMS depict more widespread clusters of storms developing, with the potential for supercell structures. While not as extreme as the possible intensity over far southeast Nebraska, these storms, primarily along and southeast of a line from Lincoln to Omaha will still be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. In addition to hail, winds, and a chance for tornadoes, heavy rain will also become an issue overnight. Last night's round of convection brought around 0.5" to 1" of rain across the forecast area. The potential for a few training storms with 3"+ per hour rates on top of the already saturated soils will create the potential for flash flooding across parts of far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa tonight. Therefore, a Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 AM Tuesday for southeast Nebraska and parts of southwest Iowa. Tuesday and Beyond... We'll see the cold front clear well to the south and east of our area by Tuesday, putting a cooler Canadian air mass in place across the region. Tuesday will start out cloudy once again, but really clear by the afternoon as high pressure builds over our area. High temperatures on Tuesday will only reach into the upper 50s to mid 60s. With clear skies and nearly calm winds, this lends to potential for frost early Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 30s for northeast Nebraska to low 40s across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Cooler weather holds into Wednesday though we do see a reversal to southerly winds and start to advect moisture back into the region. An upper-level shortwave could potentially bring a few showers to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the ensembles haven't picked up on this latest change in the deterministic guidance. In any case, this wouldn't be anything impactful. A better chance for showers and storms moves in Thursday as the longwave trough that's been nearly stationary over the western US shifts eastward toward our area. With temperatures still in the sixties for highs, I wouldn't anticipate much of a severe weather threat with this system for our area. Temperatures start to rebound on Friday though as we see enhanced warm air advection ahead of a deepening surface low which develops on the lee side of the Rockies over eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Depending on the track of this system, we could potentially see more active weather next weekend with several chances for storms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings are observed across terminals this afternoon. Will see an area of scattered showers and storms overspread KLNK and KOMA after 21z. Have refined timing a bit with this issuance, but expect further refinements and adjustments. Storms that affect terminals will likely become severe with strong winds, very large hail, and the potential for a tornado. Have added a transition to -SHRA at KOMA and KLNK after 01/02z. Ceilings will bounce between MVFR/IFR overnight, before largely becoming MVFR late in the TAF period. Winds from the north northeast will turn to the north northwest this evening, with gusts gradually increasing to 25 to 30 kts, persisting for the rest of the TAF cycle. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NEZ065-066-068-078- 088>093. IA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for IAZ090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG/McCoy AVIATION...Castillo  551 FXUS64 KLIX 181746 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1246 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will affect areas mainly west of the I-55 corridor today. A few storms may be locally strong and capable of locally heavy rainfall. - Showers and thunderstorms will spread further eastward toward the I-59 corridor Tuesday and Wednesday, with more area-wide coverage Thursday through next weekend. Some of these daily storms could become strong and/or produce locally heavy rainfall. - Temperatures are forecast to be generally near to warmer than normal through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Upper ridging across much of the eastern half of the country tonight, with troughing over the Intermountain West. This is producing southwesterly upper flow just to our west. At the surface, a Bermuda High pattern extends west along the northern Gulf Coast. Frontal boundaries were over the Plains States. Temperatures and dew points were generally in the 70s during the late evening hours. With high pressure centered off the east coast, southeast winds will continue to bring moisture back into the area. A confluent zone between the high to our east and low pressure taking shape near the Four Corners is currently manifesting as a broad area of clouds stretching from southern Texas through the middle Mississippi Valley. The airmass remains rather moist with precipitable water values in the 1.6 to 1.8 range, in the neighborhood of the 90th percentile climatologically. Today and Tuesday will see similar conditions as we had on Sunday, although moisture may be a touch less, but not enough to make much difference in the soundings. The highest rain chances will generally across northwestern areas and an isolated threat of stronger storms producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. To be honest, current forecast PoPs for both days look a bit on the high side, at least 10 percent or so today, but that isn't a big enough change to chase. Will see how today plays out, but the expectation is that rain chances tomorrow will probably need lowered across the western half of the forecast area later today. Shortwave energy Wednesday and Thursday will be much closer to the area and suppressing the ridge somewhat, so higher precipitation chances are entirely reasonable, but 80 percent at BTR seems a little high for this pattern, by probably 20 percent. Will hold for now, as neighbors grids haven't departed from NBM either. Little day to day change in temperature trends. One could probably get away with using persistence rather than guidance through much of the workweek. Cloud cover and timing of precipitation development would be the main factors in any departure from guidance, and those will change from day to day. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The active southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place as the H5 ridge continues to reside over the northeast Gulf. Within the flow there will continue to be a series of upper level impulses that will help generate shower and thunderstorm activity, especially during the afternoon hours. The best potential for rainfall will be across the western half of the CWFA away from a bit stronger upper level subsidence in closer proximity to the ridge axis to our east. That said, there will be at least modest POPs for coastal MS. At this juncture, there will be a conditional severe threat...mostly associated with strong gusty winds. Additionally, the continued waves of showers and storms will also help produce at least a localized flooding threat, especially for the BTR area where there could be several days with afternoon convection. PWats are a also somewhat favorable with 1.5-1.8" with the higher values over the western portions of the CWFA. Again, this pattern pretty much locks in and remains in place throughout the long term period. With the increase in cloudiness and rain chances, temperatures will be a bit lower, but still around climo. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A lot of cu out there leading to multiple terminals in MVFR status with cigs ranging from 1100 to just over 2k ft. Vsbys are good and should remain fine through the forecast. There are a few -SHRA out there mainly in some confluent zones but overall the activity is fairly isolated. Those will quickly weaken around sunset and winds will weaken inland overnight as well. Biggest impact through the remainder of today and overnight will be in the form of low cigs leading to many terminals dropping to/maintaining MVFR status likely seeing some improvements just after sunrise. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Onshore flow will persist as high pressure remains anchored over the western Atlantic. A tightening pressure gradient between this high and low pressure across the plains states will lead to strengthening winds, especially west of the Mississippi River. Exercise Caution headlines will remain in effect through the overnight hours. As moisture increases across the region, he chance of daily showers and storms will gradually increase, with the best chances later in the week as a weak front approaches the area. Some storms will be capable of producing locally hazardous winds and waves. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...CAB MARINE...RW  557 FXUS65 KCYS 181746 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1146 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow through Monday afternoon with Winter Storm Warnings for many of our high elevation and mountain zones and Winter Weather Advisories for nearby zones. - Near record cold Monday and Monday night will lead to widespread freezing temperatures, which may damage sensitive vegetation and outdoor irrigation systems. - Slow warming trend by the mid to late week with temperatures near normal by Thursday and Friday. Chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms each day through Friday evening. && .UPDATE... Issued at 449 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Monitoring blizzard conditions over the northern Snowy Range Foothills at this hour. Current observations along the Interstate 80 corridor from Walcott Junction to Arlington show visibility as low as 1/8th of a mile with winds gusting 50 to 65 MPH. Going to give this another hour or so, and then may need to upgrade to a Blizzard Warning if this continues. Also monitoring central Carbon County with similar conditions just starting in and around Rawlins. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 255 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Late season winter storm ongoing across southeast Wyoming with everywhere above 6500 feet changing to snow within the last 3 hours. Rain/snow line is roughly 10 miles west of Cheyenne at this hour based on area webcams which show snowfall at the Warren Exchange along I-80. Most of Interstate 80 west of there shows very difficult travel conditions with some of the worst conditions on the I-80 Summit, which is currently experiencing visibility below one half mile in heavy snow. Snow is starting to accumulate on the roads above 7000 feet and expect this to continue through much Monday morning. Storm system is just starting to intensify at this hour...as seen by the current IR Satellite loop with cooling cloud tops over most of Wyoming and the distinct "comma cloud" beginning to take shape. No changes yet to Winter Weather headlines, but will need to keep a close eye on the I-25 corridor, the Pine Ridge, and the higher hills around Scottsbluff and Banner county for potential extensions this morning. Thankfully, even if snowfall rates become an issue, snow will struggle to stick on the pavement shortly after sunrise. Snow will be ongoing as we head into this afternoon, although with the high May sun angle impacts should be limited with melting on area roadways. Snowfall rates will begin to ease down during the middle of the afternoon as the best dynamic forcing shifts east into the high plains. Some rain/snow mix expected down to 4500 to 5000 feet, but little in the way of accumulations since this will occur during the daytime hours. Remnant snow (or rain/snow mix below 5000 feet) will taper off and finally end by midnight tonight as the storm system transitions to an open wave trough and rapidly ejects northeast. Once all is said and done, this system should provide much needed moisture to the area with around a half inch of precip for the eastern plains, and close to 1.00 inch to as high as 1.50 inches for southeast Wyoming. Main forecast concern after today will be how quickly we clear out at night. There is increasing confidence that a good part of the eastern plains with clear out by daybreak Tuesday with portions of Carbon county below 50% cloud cover as well. A hard freeze is expected late tonight through most of Tuesday morning, with freezing temperatures likely lasting until shortly before noon in portions of the forecast area. This is due to a record breaking unseasonably cold airmass behind the main storm system, which is forecast to settle over the area today. Current 10th to 25th percentile low temperatures tonight are between 14 to 20 degrees over most of the high valleys in southeast Wyoming, with 17 to 27 degrees across the eastern plains. Upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for east central Wyoming and far northwestern Nebraska since these are the most likely zones to see clearing skies earlier in the night. Kept the Watch going for the remainder of the area, but mainly to see how this current storm system and potential snowfall pans out first. Conditions will improve a little on Tuesday with 700mb temperatures between -2c to -5c under northwest flow. High temperatures will be warmest where there is no snow pack...mainly over far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska with highs in the 50s to low 60s. Further west, expect highs to generally be in the 40s and even upper 30s in areas with the deepest snow pack. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026 Certainly less active than the short term, but the long term period will still have some impacts. We will likely dip below freezing again on Tuesday night especially in regions that don't melt away all of their snow (i.e. areas west of the I-25 corridor). On Wednesday, temperatures will gradually moderate into the upper 50s to near 60 east of the Laramie Range and upper 40s to lower 50s west given weak isentropic ascent/warm advection as the longwave trough responsible for our anomalously cool weather dampens. There may be enough lingering moisture for a few showers and thunderstorms primarily over the higher terrain, however probabilities of seeing QPF > 0.05" are running at about 25%, so any moisture is unlikely to be beneficial. Given dry boundary layers as shown on model forecast soundings show a very dry boundary layer with surface dewpoint depressions exceeding 40 degrees, showers and thunderstorms will likely produce far more wind than rain. Temperatures gradually warm on Thursday and Friday as a series of shortwave troughs embedded in quasi-zonal flow traverse across Eastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska, leaving in low (30%) chances for high-based showers and thunderstorms. Highs will gradually increase to climatological values (mid-upper 60s for Cheyenne to near 70 for the Nebraska Panhandle). Heading into the weekend, we will begin to dry out and encounter a faster warming trend to above- average temperatures as weak mid-level ridging establishes itself over the Rocky Mountain West, with no widespread or beneficial precipitation chances in sight. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1146 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 IFR to LIFR in place for the Wyoming terminals as visibilities remain under 3 miles and CIGS remain at or below 2 kft. For the Nebraska terminals, MVFR to IFR remain especially in the vicinity of any heavier showers. Expect CIGS to gradually increase after 06Z as this winter storm wraps up with the exception of KLAR and KRWL where low clouds are expected to remain in place through 12Z in addition to blowing snow at KRWL. 15-20 knot NE winds will remain in place through 00Z, gusting to 25-30 knots before backing to NW after 06Z. As surface high pressure settles into the region behind the ongoing system, winds will decrease to around 10 knots. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for WYZ106-113-115>119. Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ101-102-107-108. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ101- 105-106-111-115-117. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ103- 104-109-112-114-116. Freeze Watch from 9 PM MDT this evening through Tuesday morning for WYZ104-105-109>111. Blizzard Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ110. NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for NEZ002-003-020-021-054-055. Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Tuesday for NEZ019-095-096. && $$ UPDATE...TJT SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...NB AVIATION...NB  629 FXUS61 KAKQ 181749 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 149 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. Pushed best rain chances slightly farther back in time Wed night/early Thu. Increased highs slightly for Wednesday into the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values likely remain close to the air temperature. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area. 2) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 250 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a summer-like heat and continued dry conditions for the first half of the week. Widespread low-mid 90s are expected inland each day, with lower 90s closer to the immediate coast due to H85 temps maxing out between 18-20 deg C, deep mixing, and continued low-level SSW flow. Temps will be similar each day, perhaps increasing a degree or so each day, culminating with the warmest day of the week on Wednesday. The strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temps. The downside to that point is that limited moisture return and downslope flow aloft will also likely maintain dry wx across the region at least into Wed afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon, upper heights begin to fall ahead of a cold front approaching the region from our NW. Showers and storms should develop to our northwest ahead of the boundary by midday Wednesday, focused mainly on the pre-frontal lee trough. Given a gradual slowing trend in recent model guidance, it appears much of the convection most likely stays north and west of the RIC Metro Wed evening. KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen to SE ridge, while also allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. While there remain model differences, the previously referenced cold front looks to slowly drop south across the area on Thursday, then lingers across the area Thu evening before pushing south of the local area Thu night into Friday. With the front moving south of the area, expect a cooler, cloudy day with mainly stratiform rain/drizzle Thu night/Friday, though it is possible the warm sector could linger a bit later into Thu across extreme SE portions of the area, allowing for few rumbles of thunder. Temps may struggle to get out of the lower 60s on Thursday and Friday (especially N/NE) as cool high pressure wedges down into the region. While the Thursday forecast is a bit higher confidence with the front dropping into the region, the temperature forecast on Friday and especially Saturday remains highly uncertain, and depends on the exact position of the front. 00z LREF continues to feature model spread in 2m temperatures of ~12-15 deg F for Friday across much of the area! While some uncertainty lingers into Saturday, especially inland, it does appear as if the wedge airmass erodes quickly, as the parent high exits to the east and the front lifts back north of the local area into the upcoming weekend. Some additional isolated to scattered showers and a few storms (along with warmer temps) are possible Sat/Sun, but by no means does the holiday weekend look to be a washout. Gradual warming is expected as we head into early next week, as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies early next week. As for precipitation amounts, ensemble (EPS/GEPS/GEFS) probabilities for at least 0.5" of 48-hour total rainfall for the Wed night-Fri Night period still hover around or just above 50-70% across the entire CWA. However, it is hard to stay as optimistic as ensemble/NBM guidance, given that 1) a potentially unfavorable FROPA timing for convection (Model timing with the front is even later into Wed night/early Thu. Wednesday's convection looks likely to be focused to our NNW, with Thursday's heavier rainfall potentially to be suppressed to our south) and 2) several recent rain events have underperformed with respect to Day 3-5 model/ensemble forecasts. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/18 TAF period as high pressure remains dominant offshore. SCT-BKN cumulus clouds have developed over the southeast, but otherwise SKC skies across the area. SW winds are currently ~10 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt at RIC and SBY this afternoon. Winds will become more southerly overnight, remaining ~10 kt. Outlook: VFR conditions expected through midweek, as high pressure remains in control. South/southwest winds each afternoon may gust to 15-20 kt each day through Wednesday. The next chance of rain and possible degraded flight conditions isn't expected until late Wednesday or Thursday. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. - A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions. Expansive high pressure remains parked across the western Atlantic and extends across the Southeast. Winds remain out of the SW at generally 10 to 15 kt across the local waters. Seas are 2-3 ft across the coastal waters and 1 ft or less in the Bay and rivers (1- 2 ft at the mouth of the Bay). Through mid-week, high pressure will remain parked across the western Atlantic in a typical summertime Bermuda High configuration. Winds remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late-afternoon nearshore seabreeze. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish through the overnight. These surges will be relatively brief and likely will not require any SCAs. Expect generally benign marine conditions to prevail through at least midweek. The next cold front looks to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief marginal SCA conditions are possible and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend. && .CLIMATE... As of 145 AM Monday... Record High Temps for 5/18 - 5/20 Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond95 (1962) 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 95 (1877) 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 96 (1911) 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 93 (1987) 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/18- 5/20 Record Record Record High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 72 (2015) 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 75 (1995) 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 71 (1953) 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 73 (1995) 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ERI/MAM AVIATION...KMC/MAM MARINE...NB CLIMATE...MAM  616 FXUS63 KABR 181748 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1248 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain showers mid day today through this evening. Rainfall ranges from a tenth to a quarter inch. - Colder air for the first half of the work week. Lows Tuesday morning close to freezing, but with clouds and a stiff northwest breeze temperatures should stay above 32. Much better setup for widespread frost/freeze conditions Wednesday morning with clear skies and light winds. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Next wave coming up from the southwest brings in moisture mid-day today through the early overnight. Still mainly light rain/showers. QPF is just a tenth or two. For Tuesday morning, we are faced with the prospect of cold advection enhanced winds, shallow cloud cover and NBM guidance proposing temperatures down to the freezing mark. Clearly not a setup for frost, but with 925mb temperatures around +1 to +2C between deterministic models, which is in alignment with the HREF mean that should put temperatures into the low/mid 30s. That said, the NSSL WRF, NAM NEST and HRRR have 925 temps down to 0C for various parts of the CWA. Latest NBM is a little warmer for lows, and now has just about everyone at 33F and warmer. No headlines/frost mention for Tuesday morning but it will get quite close to the freezing mark. Frost caddishness negated by these winds and clouds however. Much more impactful drop in temperatures will be noted for Wednesday morning. During the day Tuesday, daytime driven cumulus evident in NAM BUFKIT profiles. While this is shallow (~5kft), cant rule out light rain showers/sprinkles. Regardless, cloud cover during the day will limit heating. Loss of daytime driven convection with temperatures only into the 50s and dewpoints in the low/mid 30s and surface high pressure overhead will leave us with a good setup for frost. 25th range across the CWA is 29-32 while the upper range is 32-35. Keeping frost mention at this time but still too early for any headlines. The upper pattern features the current upper trough departure, with a second trough over the intermountain west. That puts us under a ridge for Wednesday - early Thursday. There's a negative tilt trough passage for Friday. Aside from the precipitation associated with this wave/surface low, there is a wide range in temperatures with a 10 degree spread in the 25th/75th for highs so a low confidence forecast to close out the work week. After that its zonal flow across the northwestern CONUS into the northern plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Areas of -SHRA will move northeast into and through the region this afternoon and evening. VSBY may drop to MVFR in precipitation. CIGs will generally be MVFR, although forecast is for IFR at times in areas of precipitation and overall lower cloud cover potential during the evening hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...TMT  610 FXUS64 KLCH 181748 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1248 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and warm conditions will prevail today with a couple of small showers or thunderstorms possible this afternoon. - An unsettled pattern will develop beginning Tuesday afternoon and continue through the end of the week with high precipitation chances each day. - Several inches of rain are expected Tuesday through next Monday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A few, light showers are being observed early this afternoon across parts of southeast Texas and northern Louisiana as they wrap around the northern periphery of a weak upper level ridge centered over the gulf. This ridge should limit any afternoon convection to just a couple of small and weak storms at best. At the surface, the region remains caught between high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and a low over the southern plains that is expected to produce severe weather over portions of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. The result is another day of breezy southeasterly winds. Observations thus far have indicated sustained winds between 10-15 knots with gusts as high as 30. While certainly enough to blow around unsecured objects, the sustained winds are expected to remain below wind advisory criteria. A much wetter pattern is on the near horizon as a weak frontal boundary is expected to dig to the coast tomorrow afternoon before stalling. A series of upper level disturbances will move up the Texas gulf coast roughly along the boundary producing wave after wave of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through early next week. Unfortunately, this also includes the holiday weekend and those with outdoor plans should have an indoor alternative. Latest ensemble QPF totals generally range from 2-4 inches through the week although higher amounts are likely across areas that see training of heavier rain. WPC has the entire region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday through Friday and this will likely be extended through the weekend. The overall risk of flooding will likely increase with each successive day as soils become saturated and area waterways fill. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Ceilings have been and will continue to improve to VFR over the next couple of hours where they will remain through the evening. Ceilings are expected to fall to MVFR once again overnight after 06Z. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered in the western Atlantic and a low over eastern Kansas will maintain gusty southeasterly winds of up to 30 knots through the afternoon. Winds will weaken somewhat after sunset this evening, but remain in the 10-12 knot range overnight through Tuesday morning. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Onshore winds around 20 knots will continue this afternoon and tonight maintaining seas in the 3-6 feet range. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this evening. Winds will weaken Tuesday through the end of the week. Precipitation chances increase significantly Tuesday night through next Monday as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances produce several waves of precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Breezy southerly winds gusting as high as 30 knots will continue this afternoon before diminishing this evening. Dewpoints in the 70s will keep minimum RH values in the 60-70% range this week. A wet pattern will get underway Tuesday evening through early next week as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances provide waves of precipitation each day. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ450-452-470- 472. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...66  810 FXUS61 KBGM 181752 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 152 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strengthening ridge of high pressure will be our main feature today and tomorrow leading to above average temperatures and increasing humidity. A few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow afternoon. 2) A cold front will bring the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, then cooler conditions return for the second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure anchored near Bermuda and a strengthening upper level ridge off the southeast coast will build northward today through tomorrow. This will allow southwesterly flow to settle over the region, promoting strong warm air advection and increasing dew points. As a result summer like conditions are expected for the start of the week with highs climbing into the mid 80s to low 90s. Forecast highs are near daily records, with record highs of 87 at KBGM both days, 93 Monday and 92 Tuesday at KAVP, and 90 Monday and 92 Tuesday at KSYR. Although yesterdays NBM guidance appeared too warm, observed high temperatures ended up closer to the NBM output than expected. However, with the NBM still running warmer than most guidance, the ongoing trend of slightly lowering maximum temperatures was continued for today and tomorrow, especially with NBM forecasting temperatures above daily records. As mentioned, dew points will be on the rise, reaching the low to mid 60s today and tomorrow, with some spots even reaching the upper 60s tomorrow afternoon, so the humidity will be noticeable. However there remains some uncertainty in whether scattered clouds and isolated showers or thunderstorms to pop up during the afternoon and early evening hours today and tomorrow as a couple of weak waves embedded in the flow around the ridge move through. Both the GFs and ECMWF continue to show an EML plume moving into the region this afternoon, with NAM guidance indicating CAPE values approaching 2000 J/Kg along with steep lapse rates. Despite the instability in place, model soundings continue to show a cap associated with the ridge axis overhead, which should largely suppress convective development. That said, if any storms are able to break the cap, the environment could support a few isolated severe storms. KEY MESSAGE 2... The next opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms will be with a cold front moving into the region on Wednesday. Model guidance continues to show the bulk of the convection moving through from midday through the afternoon. With the showers moving through earlier over the northwestern portion of our region, there will be a relatively large temperatures gradient with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s over the Finger Lakes region NY and highs in the low to mid 80s over the Pocono Mountain region PA. If everything can come together, some locally strong to severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out for the afternoon and early evening especially across NE PA and the southern Catskills. Cooler temperatures follow behind the front with highs returning to the mid 50s to mid 60s by the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm tonight, mainly after midnight, for ITH, SYR and RME as an upper level shortwave passes by just to the north and west, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop tomorrow, possibly as early as16-18Z, which can result in some brief restrictions as the afternoon goes on. West-southwesterly winds with gusts generally around 15 to 20 knots continue through the remainder of the afternoon before becoming light and a bit variable tonight. Southwesterly winds increase again later tomorrow morning and into the afternoon with gusts of 15 to 25 knots expected. Outlook: Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night...Mainly VFR, but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief restrictions. Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves through the area. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062. && $$ DISCUSSION...DK/ES AVIATION...DK  830 FXUS63 KMQT 181753 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 153 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms exit the U.P. this morning with isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon. - Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight. Some of the storms could be severe, especially over the southern half of the U.P. Heavy rainfall is also possible. - Warmer than normal temperatures Monday, followed by cooler than normal temperatures for the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Early this morning satellite water vapor imagery and RAP upper level analysis showed deep troughing over the western U.S. with southwesterly flow over the plains into the Upper Great Lakes. Satellite and radar showed widespread convection from KS up to northern WI ahead of frontal boundary. The storms were clustered over NW WI and the western U.P., close to a sfc low pressure that was tracking northeast into the area. Convection remained elevated, above the cooler easterly flow near the sfc and strong stable layer. SPC Mesoanalysis showed mucape of 500-1000 J/kg with effective shear of 20-30kt over the western U.P. which was helping to maintain thunderstorms pushing into the area but overall there was a weakening trend as cells crossed into the U.P. Temperatures were warming up a bit overnight as southeasterly flow strengthened with most locations in the upper 40s to low 50s. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the western U.P. through this morning. Conditions will remain borderline for strong to severe thunderstorms, mucape ~1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear 20-30kt. The most likely hazard is hail but cant rule out isolated strong winds. These storms will move through parts of the north-central U.P. with more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the rest of the U.P. PWATs are in the 1.25-1.5" range, exceeding the 95th percentile from climo, thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. While scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorms will be possible the afternoon, mainly for the central and eastern U.P., most of the day is expected to be fairly quite with respects to thunderstorm activity due to strong capping and little in the way of large scale ascent. Should a storm manage to form and root itself at the surface it could become severe with cape to around 1500 J/kg and shear of ~40kt but the probability is very low. Southerly flow will increase and despite cloud cover expect temperatures to warm into the 60s and 70s. A lake breeze (Lake Superior) will form by early afternoon bringing falling to the lakeshore areas. The lake breeze / cold pool will expand inland through the remainder of the afternoon, further limiting the prospects for thunderstorm development. Tonight, a second low pressure will track north into the U.P. bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Models continue to trend downwards with respects to instability with href mean mucape of 500-1000 J/kg over much of the U.P. though areas in the south will see a bit more robust instability to around 1500 J/kg. Notable is also the downward trend in mid-level lapse rates in the models over the last several runs. 0-6km bulk shear is around 40kt so there is still the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, especially over the southern U.P. SPC continues to include the CWA within their 15% risk region (slight risk), with primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds. WPC also continues to maintain a marginal risk for flash flooding with this second wave. Showers and gusty winds will linger Tuesday as the surface low and trough aloft push through the region. Thunderstorm potential looks to be isolated to the east in the morning. Sprawling high pressure builds in by evening, keeping the region dry through at least Friday morning. Daytime highs Wednesday look to peak in the 50s south and west, and 40s north-central and east. Thursday and Friday will trend back toward normal 60s, but the east may only top out in the 50s both days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 152 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Visible satellite reveals partial clearing taking place over the western half of Upper Michigan as of 18z Mon, with surface observations showing a corresponding upward trend in flight categories at area terminals. Expect an eventual trend back down to low end MVFR or IFR roughly 21-00z this evening at KIWD and KSAW as the next round of showers moves into the region. Probabilities for strong to severe thunderstorms have decreased into tonight, but will still carry TSRA at KIWD and PROB30s at KCMX and KSAW through ~10z Tue. Will see gradual improvement from west to east as the system exits Tue morning, but cigs will likely hold at MVFR if not IFR until after 18z Tue. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 Guidance continues to bring a low pressure into the Great Lakes Monday night, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient today and cold air advection Tuesday behind the low. The former will support a period of northeasterly gales in the western portions of Lake Superior this afternoon and evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase tonight, then linger until the low passes Tuesday morning. The first wave comes tonight across the east and then the west late tonight, both potentially lingering into Monday morning. Strong to severe storms can't be ruled out, the lack of effective shear within the cloud layer suggests the risk is marginal. The next organized cluster lifts through Monday night preceded by a warm and moist airmass. This will again support strong to severe storm potential and rainfall may be the trigger needed for overnight fog. In the wake of the low Tuesday, a second period of gales looks possible across eastern Lake Superior; although, ensemble guidance suggests the probability in the east being 25% or less. Once the winds settle Tuesday night/Wednesday, light winds are favored through at least Friday morning. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ244- 264>266. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTP/NL AVIATION...CB MARINE...JTP  857 FXUS63 KICT 181753 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1253 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the overnight hours. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall are all possible. - Cooler weather begins Tuesday, with highs in the 60s and low 70s through at least Thursday. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday night into the weekend. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, but could see a few strong to severe storms toward the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a potent mid/upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the Central Plains. Surface analysis early this afternoon depicts a stalled quasi-cold front spanning from north central KS south/southwest into the OK Panhandle, while a surface low pressure resides near KGBD. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the stalled front. With mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear, storms should grow severe rather quickly, especially early on prior to storm interactions. As prior discussions have mentioned, mostly boundary- parallel shear will promote a messy linear mode with embedded supercell structures. Given the environment, however, initial development will likely be discrete/semi-discrete and supercellular in nature. This will allow for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. We could also see a few landspout tornadoes primarily across central KS given the slow-moving nature of the boundary. The timing for these higher end severe threats appears to be through 8 PM. In addition to these threats, heavy rain arising from training storms may result in flooding concerns, especially in central KS where soils have already been saturated from yesterday's heavy rainfall. As the aforementioned trough continues to eject to the northeast into the Northern Plains this evening, the cold front will pick up speed and progress to the southeast. As this morning's discussion highlighted, this will likely decrease the threat for very large hail and supercell/landspout tornadoes with the growth transitioning into a mostly linear mode. This transition will promote more of a wind threat, but could still see large hail with this activity given the ample instability continuing into the overnight hours. Also can't rule out a few tornadic circulations within the line due to the strong low-level shear/SRH, but this threat should remain low relative to this afternoon's chances. Storm chances will largely exit the region with the departure of the cold front, though far southeast KS could see some lingering showers and storms through the day on Tuesday. Cooler temperatures are forecast throughout the area as well, with the post-frontal airmass promoting afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s through at least Thursday. With the right entrance region of the upper jet progged to linger across the Central/Northern Plains, chances for showers and storms are expected to arrive Wednesday night and last into the weekend. At this point, it appears that Friday will hold the next potential for strong to severe storms given the return of instability and reasonable deep-layer shear. Details this far out are quite uncertain, though widespread severe weather appears unlikely to this point. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A frontal boundary was stalled over central Kansas and expecting severe storms to develop after 19Z along the front. The storms will then migrate slowly southward for the rest of the afternoon into tonight. Gusty south winds will persist until the cold front passes through. Low clouds will begin to fill in behind the front along with increasing north winds. A line of showers and storms will push southward into south central Kansas around 8pm then shift east of the Kansas turnpike after 11pm. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ051>053- 067>070-082-083-091>094-098. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...CDJ  943 FXUS63 KMPX 181755 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1255 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers & thunderstorms tonight. Can't rule out a few strong to severe storms from far-southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. - Seasonably cool & dry midweek. Rain chances return Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A few remnants showers & thunderstorms will linger over the area towards sunrise, but all of the active weather has moved well off to our east overnight. Cloud cover is expected to stick around through much of the day today, & cool northeast winds mean that temperatures may struggle to warm much out of the 50s & low 60s across much of central Minnesota. Farther east, portions of western Wisconsin will still remain ahead of the surface low/cold front & temperatures could reach the 70s this afternoon along with muggier dew points in the 60s. We'll stay dry for much of the day today, but another round of showers thunderstorms is expected to spread northeastwards out of the central plains this evening. We should north of the prime environment for severe weather across KS/NE/IA, but will have to watch just how far north a corridor of weaker surface- based instability can make it into far-southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin this evening. Expect scattered showers to quickly spread northwards across MN & WI during the early evening, with the heaviest rainfall & best chance for thunder coming between8 PM to midnight. Can't rule out a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts across these areas, but otherwise we're just expecting your typical spring showers with a few rumbles of thunder at time. The most widespread concentration of thunderstorms, & heaviest rainfall amounts, are expected from southern Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin where rainfall amounts of 1-2" are likely. Elsewhere, the showers will be lighter & more sporadic so only expecting rainfall amounts on the order of 0.25-0.5". The showers & thunderstorms will continue on & off through the night, ending from west to east around sunrise. Much cooler weather arrives after the rain with temperatures struggling to warm out of the 50s Tuesday. Strong cyclonic flow & colder temperatures aloft will likely create a prime environment for isolated diurnally-driven showers during the afternoon, but rainfall amounts from these will be light. May need to monitor the potential for another frost/freeze Wednesday morning if clouds are able to clear out overnight & the radiational cooling potential is maximized. Seasonably cool & dry weather continues through Thursday with another chance for showers & thunderstorms looking likely Friday into Saturday. Additional chances for showers & thunderstorms look possible over the Memorial Day weekend, but it won't be a washout of a weekend. Temperatures return to more seasonable values Friday into saturday, & could warm into the 80s Sunday & Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Low stratus, MVFR-to-IFR, expected to prevail throughout this duration as a low pressure center and its associated NE-to-SW frontal boundaries remain slightly to the east of the WFO MPX TAF sites. A round of rainfall with some embedded TSRA (mainly southern MN into western WI) is expected from late this afternoon through late this evening, potentially lasting as lingering showers into the early morning hours. Visibilities will drop to as low as IFR, particularly if heavy downpours cross over any given site. Precipitation is expected to end overnight to just before dawn Tuesday morning, followed by a slow rise in ceilings during the day Tuesday. Winds will remain NE throughout, with speeds around 10kts during the day today into this evening, increasing to near 15G25kts late overnight through the day Tuesday. KMSP...Ceilings to remain in the 010-015 range through this afternoon, with a small shot of some showers developing prior to 00z this evening, After 00z, chances ramp of significantly of a swath of rain/TSRA shifting NE from southern MN into western WI. MVFR ceilings to continue, with visibilities potentially into IFR range should heavier downpours move across MSP. As the precip winds down overnight, MVFR ceilings will continue but NW winds will increase to near 15G25kts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts, shifting to SE. THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...JPC  869 FXUS64 KBRO 181754 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1254 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1242 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Key Messages: * Heat Risk for today and tomorrow is a mixture of moderate and major. * Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible starting Wednesday through Friday. * A Small Craft Advisory has been extended till 9 AM CDT Tuesday; a High Risk for Rip Currents continues through Tuesday evening as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 While the heat will continue to linger as a potential hazard with high temperatures in the upper 90s to lower triple digits for today and tomorrow. The high temperatures for Wednesday do slightly lower to mostly in the mid 90s as cloud coverage starts to increase, which will be further discussed later on. The heat indices for today and tomorrow do generally float around 108 F. While still below the Heat Advisory criteria, the heat risk for today and tomorrow is moderate (level 2 of 4) and major (level 3 of 4). Thus it will still be important to practice heat safety when possible especially to those that are vulnerable to heat related illnesses. By Wednesday, cloud coverage is expected to increase over the region as a frontal boundary stalls to the north of the region. With the combination of southwesterly flow aloft, southeasterly flow at the surface, and the frontal boundary to the north. The environment will become more favorable for the development of showers and thunderstorms. As of this current forecast the best chances for rain are on Thursday and Friday with rain chances between 60 to 80% during those days. While chances are generally medium (around 50%) for Wednesday and the rest of the forecast period. Currently the Weather Prediction Center does have all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall days 3 through 5, which covers Wednesday morning through Saturday morning. Thus it will be possible to see some flooding due to the rainfall. The Storm Prediction Center also has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for mostly the Upper Valley for Tuesday through Wednesday. However the rest of the region is in a general thunderstorm outlook thus it is possible for showers and thunderstorms to occur all over the area that day. Lastly for the coastal hazards, while the Coastal Flood Statement was allowed to expire early this afternoon, but it is possible that another Coastal Flood Statement might be needed tonight. A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect through Tuesday evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Gusty southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the afternoon hours and into the early evening hours. While the winds are generally expected to diminish during that time frame. VFR conditions should persist through the evening, but a return of MVFR could occur during the overnight hours. However the ceiling should return to VFR during the morning hours tomorrow with as the southeasterly winds become gusty again tomorrow morning as well. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist through most of tonight and into early tomorrow morning, thus a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM tomorrow. Even after the Small Craft Advisory does expire tomorrow morning, adverse conditions are still expected for most of the day tomorrow as seas will take more time to come down. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the region by Wednesday and will continue to persist through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 94 81 92 / 10 10 20 10 HARLINGEN 79 95 79 93 / 10 0 40 10 MCALLEN 81 97 79 94 / 20 10 30 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 98 78 95 / 20 10 40 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 86 81 85 / 10 10 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 92 80 90 / 10 0 30 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ254-255-351- 354-355-451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...64-Katz LONG TERM....64-Katz AVIATION...64-Katz  919 FXUS65 KBOI 181755 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1155 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain showers on Monday, otherwise dry, breezy and slightly warmer. - Dry with temperatures warming back above normal starting on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Issued 257 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026 The tight surface pressure gradient behind an eastward exiting low pressure system will continue to generate breezy northwest winds today across much of the area. Wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph can be expected this afternoon, though they will not be quite as strong as what was observed on Sunday. While a stable air mass dominates the lower elevations, lingering afternoon instability will support a slight chance of light showers over the mountains today, with minimal accumulation expected. Northwest flow aloft will carry into Tuesday as high pressure builds over the Pacific. A more stable and dry air mass will keep conditions clear across the region, allowing temperatures to warm back to near normal values for this time of year. By Wednesday, an embedded shortwave trough will move through the intermountain west, tracking across our area into Wednesday night. This system will bring an increase in cloud cover along with light, isolated showers primarily focused across the West Central Mountains of Idaho. The arrival of this shortwave and its associated cloud cover will also work to slow down the overall warming trend as we transition into the long term period. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Issued 257 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026 A trough over Montana will dig into southern Idaho on Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures and a slight chance of high terrain showers (10-20% chance). This trough will quickly move east on Friday, bringing a return to dry northwest flow through Saturday with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. A weak shortwave passage will bring another low chance of showers over high terrain late Saturday into Sunday, but forecast confidence is very low. By Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will build into the region, bringing warm and dry conditions ahead of a strong upper level low diving down off the British Columbia coast. Models diverge substantially on the path of this upper level low early next week, with some members (ECMWF) bringing this low directly over the region by Monday evening. Current forecast does not favor this outcome, with a strong bias towards the warm and dry scenario on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 1155 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026 VFR. Scattered showers this afternoon, mainly across higher terrain. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and mtn obscuration in showers. Snow levels: 5.5-6.5 kft MSL. Surface winds: W-N 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt this afternoon. Becoming variable 5-10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Showers over the foothills this afternoon. Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt with gusts up 28 kt this afternoon, becoming SW-NW up to 8 kt overnight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....SA  989 FXUS61 KBUF 181755 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 155 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms expanded across the entire forecast area Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summer-like heat today through Tuesday. 2) Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms this evening, supporting a threat for damaging winds. 3) Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday evening and last into Wednesday morning, where a few thunderstorms may become severe (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Tuesday/Tuesday Night). 4) Drier and cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Summer-like heat today through Tuesday. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to amplify across the eastern United States today while gradually shifting its ridge axis eastward tonight and Tuesday. As such, deep southwesterly flow will advect warm Gulf air into the region helping to surge temperatures well into the 80s and a few climatologically warmer locations toward 90. Today will be the warmer of the two days, as the ridge axis lies overhead. However, for locations closer to the lakeshores, expect temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s due to the air coming off of the cold lake waters. NBM high temperatures continue to trend too warm, but it is not as overdone as it has been in previous runs. This being said, continued to lower high temperatures a couple to a few degrees for locations. While temperatures are warm, dewpoint temperatures will range in the 60s supporting lower humidity values, which will keep the potential for heat headline criteria low. KEY MESSAGE 2...Marginal Risk for isolated severe thunderstorms this evening supporting a threat for damaging winds. A weak shortwave trough will ride along the western edge of the ridge this afternoon and evening, introducing a forcing mechanism along with a 40-50 knot low-level jet to graze the western edges of the the forecast area, which will help support a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. Due to the warm, moist, unstable air mass already overhead, and the introduction of the low-level jet later this evening, any storm that does develop could become severe. This being said, a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms (Threat Level 1 of 5) is in place across the region, with the main hazard being damaging wind gusts. KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday evening and last into Wednesday morning, where a few thunderstorms may become severe (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Tuesday/Tuesday Night). As the mid-level ridge axis departs east Tuesday, the next mid-level trough will jut northwestward out of the longwave trough overhead of the western half of the CONUS. Its associated surface low will continue to track northeastward across Ontario and Quebec, Canada dragging an attendant cold front across the region Tuesday night. Despite the unfavorable timing of the front's arrival being past peak diurnal heating hours, there continue to be high confidence in a few strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening and Tuesday night ahead of the strong cold front's arrival. CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg along with 30 to 40 knots of 0-6km shear will nurture the potential for damaging wind gusts, which will be the primary hazard threat. However, large hail can't be ruled out as forecast soundings continue to highlight "fat" CAPE profiles. Additionally, an isolated tornado can't be ruled out either with Storm Relative Helicity values of 200 to 300 m^2/s^2. This all being said, the Storm Prediction Center continues to place the entire region under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms. With a 2% risk for tornadoes, 15% risk for damaging winds, and 5% risk for large hail. KEY MESSAGE 4...Drier and cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettle weather returns for the holiday weekend. In the wake of the passing cold front Wednesday morning, cold air and surface high pressure will side across the region for the later half of the week, supporting mainly cool and dry weather. The coolest day will be Thursday with many locations remaining in the 50s for highs. There will then be a slow rebound in temperatures heading into the holiday weekend, with highs ranging in the 60s and a few locations reaching the low 70s. An area of low pressure will then approach the region from the southwest, supporting the return of unsettled weather for the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are present this afternoon across the region with warm and breezy conditions. VFR conditions are expected to continue tonight and through tomorrow morning, however increasing low level wind shear could bring hazardous aviation conditions this evening into the overnight hours. Diurnal cumulus field at around 4000-5000 ft will persist until later this evening, and then expect the lower levels to be clear tonight as high based clouds increase. The remnants of an impressive squall line over the central Great Lakes may reach WNY, but most forecast guidance dissipates this activity before it reaches the eastern Great Lakes. Still, can't rule out a shower or thunderstorm overnight on the periphery of this activity. Fair amount of clouds expected tomorrow, with lower level ceilings developing (4000-6000 ft) with surface heating by late morning. Wind concerns continue through the TAF period with SW wind gusts 20- 25 kts this afternoon, and then LLWS developing this evening and into the early morning hours. After daybreak tomorrow, SW winds will increase again with 25-30 kt winds gusts likely. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...Areas of MVFR/local IFR with showers and thunderstorms of which a few storms may contain gusty winds, with this activity ending from west to east and improving to VFR Wednesday morning. Thursday through Friday...VFR. Saturday...Potential for sub-VFR with as a low pressure system brings rain to the region. && .MARINE... Pressure gradient between exiting high pressure and an approaching cold front will continue to gradually tighten through Tuesday, which is currently supporting the moderate southwesterlies and very choppy conditions on the western end of Lake Ontario this afternoon. Winds will increase further Tuesday ahead of the aforementioned cold front, supporting winds and waves worthy of Small Craft Advisory criteria on the western end of Lake Ontario by Tuesday afternoon, before spreading toward the eastern end of Lake Ontario late Tuesday night through Wednesday with the passage of the cold front. Winds on Lake Erie will be somewhat lighter, but still strong enough to produce a moderate chop Tuesday through Wednesday. Additionally, just ahead of the cold frontal passage Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass across the lakes producing damaging winds with a possibility of large hail. Winds will then relax as high pressure returns Wednesday night and Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAJ AVIATION...SGK MARINE...EAJ  068 FXUS63 KGRB 181757 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1257 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall possible at times through tonight. The greatest coverage of storms will occur across the northwest half of the forecast area in the late evening and overnight hours tonight. - Drier and cooler weather returns mid to late week. Frost or freeze headlines may be needed over mainly northern WI Tuesday night and Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A cluster of strong thunderstorms was ongoing over north central WI early this morning, in advance of a short-wave trough. This activity had marginal instability (MUCAPE 1000-1500) and strong deep layer shear (45-50 kts) to work with, and a few storms were pulsing to near-severe levels and exhibiting mid-level rotation at times. A marginal severe threat will continue over north central and perhaps far northeast WI through about 5 am. Otherwise, low clouds and areas of fog (locally dense) covered much of the region, and temperatures were stuck in the upper 40s to middle 50s. A warm front was situated across southern WI, where temperatures were in the lower to middle 70s. The warm front will lift north today, but there is some question if it will reach northern WI this afternoon. As the front lifts north and daytime heating commences, the foggy conditions should improve this morning. Have lowered max temperatures several degrees, especially over northern WI. Still expecting decreased coverage of storms today due to cloud cover, capping, a weakening low-level jet and weak mid to upper level ridging. Decreasing deep layer shear should also result in a lesser threat of severe storms during the day. Will keep slight chance to chance pops through the day and into the early evening hours. A surface wave will lift into north central WI later this evening, followed by a cold frontal passage during the overnight hours. CAMs show an uptick in thunderstorms over central and north central WI later in the evening, with a linear MCS moving through mainly north central and far northeast WI during the overnight hours. The late night timing of this is not especially favorable for severe storms, though MUCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg and deep layer shear increasing to 35-50 kts supports severe potential. The cold front sweeps through eastern WI Tuesday morning with lingering showers and a few storms, but dry weather returns by afternoon. Tuesday will be a windy day with west to northwest winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph. Temps over eastern WI will remain above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s, but cooler readings in the 50s and 60s are expected farther west. High pressure will bring dry and cooler conditions for the middle of the week, with potential for frost or freeze headlines Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Warmer temperatures and small precipitation chances return for the weekend. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Low pressure and a modified warm front lift across WI through tonight. Cold front sweeps through on Tuesday morning. Subsidence in wake of cluster of storms over Lake Michigan and lower Michigan will restrict pop-up showers and storms this afternoon. As the warm front lifts through, could be isolated showers and storms late this afternoon into this evening. Another line of showers and storms will move into central and north-central WI late this evening and overnight. Not clear whether this line makes it into eastern WI. A few lingering showers and storms on Tuesday morning, then it dries out with gusty northwest winds developing behind the cold front. Cigs MVFR to VFR today, lowering to IFR to MVFR late tonight into early Tuesday. Cigs improve to VFR in all areas on Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds gust to 15-20 kt into this evening, with winds shifting southwest into the overnight. Winds shift to northwest Tuesday morning, with gusts to 25 kt. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch AVIATION.......JLA  031 FXUS64 KSJT 181756 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1256 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The main concern in the short term this afternoon through tomorrow will be the potential for severe storms. For today, the main area of concern will be along our western CWA border, generally north of Sterling City. We have plenty of moisture in place with dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 degrees. As warming takes place today, SB CAPEs in excess of 4000 J/kg are possible this afternoon, as a dryline approaches from the west. There is shortwave energy embedded in southwest flow aloft that could aid in initiation of convection. Deep layer shear is not overly impressive, but with the amount of instability available, that would likely be overcome by any storms that can develop to produce severe weather with the primary concerns being large hail and severe wind gusts. The main problem with this afternoon is that most high resolution models maintain enough convective inhibition through this evening to prevent convection from developing. However, considering the amount of instability available, if storms do develop, they should quickly strengthen to severe levels, so will have at least a low (20%) chance for thunderstorms north of I-20 in the western Big Country. For Tuesday, a cold front will move into the area from the north shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. As this front moves south during the morning hours, heating along and south of the front will allow for strong destabilization, with SB CAPE values again approaching 4000 J/kg. The front, along with an approaching shortwave, is expected to provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms by late morning or early afternoon in our area. Deep layer shear values of 20 to 40 knots, combined with the strong instability will any storms that develop to become severe, with the main hazards being large to very hail and damaging winds. And with the frontal boundary available, tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out. Highs south of the front will be able to warm into the lower 90s, while north of Interstate 20, highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A trough remains in place across the Four Corners region on Tuesday and we will continue to see embedded disturbances within the flow aloft. Meanwhile, a pronounced dryline will be sitting just to our west again. This will combine with a cold frontal boundary moving into our area sometime on Tuesday morning into early afternoon. The combination of these three features will allow for more substantial support for thunderstorm development across the region. Rain chances will therefore be high (70-80%) on Tuesday. It still remains a bit uncertain how far south the frontal boundary will move into western Central Texas. This boundary appears to stall across the Concho Valley, which would help to prolong the rain chances. Conditions are favorable for this activity to be strong to severe as it moves through on Tuesday. In fact, we are indeed outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center. The main hazards with this activity will be large hail and damaging winds. By the time Wednesday rolls around, another low pressure strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and starts moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in placefor Wednesday. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding for Wednesday. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this system moves east for the later half of the work week. This leaves a high rain chance (80%) in place for Thursday. Some remnants may linger into Friday, however, lower chances (30- 40%) will be in place for Friday. All of this activity from Tuesday onward will have to be monitored closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 There are some lingering VIS values of 4SM to 6SM, but expect these values to improve to P6SM within the next hour or so. Ceilings have all improved to VFR, and these should remain VFR through late tonight, with another round of MVFR CIGs moving back into the area from the southeast after 06Z tonight. A cold front will move into the area tomorrow, but timing is still uncertain at this time, so have not shown a wind shift at KABI just yet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 86 63 78 / 10 80 50 50 San Angelo 72 92 63 80 / 0 80 60 50 Junction 73 90 65 82 / 0 50 80 60 Brownwood 72 88 64 80 / 0 70 70 50 Sweetwater 71 87 62 77 / 10 60 40 50 Ozona 71 89 64 82 / 0 50 50 50 Brady 72 88 64 79 / 0 60 60 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...20  111 FXUS61 KBTV 181757 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 157 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 627 AM EDT Monday... A quick update to the forecast was made to better reflect the current showers and thunderstorms moving across the area this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... 1. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue for the first half of the week, with high temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and 80s. Meanwhile, lake and river water temperatures remain dangerously cold across the region, and breezes on Lake Champlain may result in rough lake conditions. 2. Above normal temperatures are expected for the first half of the week ahead. 3. Cooler and drier conditions are favored Thursday through Friday before a transition back to seasonable temperatures and a wetter pattern. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Building high pressure across the region will allow for unseasonable warmth to continue for the first portion of the week. A warm front lifting across the region this morning may bring a few chances of showers this morning, but as the day progresses drier conditions are expected to prevail. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to climb into the upper 70s and 80s areawide. Despite the extremely warm air temperatures, water temperatures are still quite frigid, so any recreators should be sure to take the proper precautions, including wearing a life jacket. In addition to the warm temperatures, southerly winds will continue to be a bit breezy throughout the day, especially in the Champlain Valley and along the lake due to channeled flow. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect, with additional details in the Marine section below Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the week, with high temperatures climbing into the 80s and near 90 under southwesterly flow. These temperatures will be the warmest of the year so far, especially after a cool start to the month, so it is important to remember to stay safe in warmer temperatures by staying hydrated and take frequent breaks if working outside. Dewpoints will also be trending upwards going into Tuesday, making it feel quite humid especially for this time of year. The warmth and humidity will result in increasing instability, which will support the development of showers and possible thunderstorms for Tuesday, which could impact how warm temperatures climb during the day Tuesday. A cold front is expected to cross the region on Wednesday, which will impact how warm we can get that day. At the moment, highs in the upper 60s to mid 80s look likely, with central and southern Vermont getting the warmest before the cold front and associated precipitation arrive. In addition to warmth during the days, our lows likely won't fall below the upper 50s and 60s until the cold front arrives, providing only some relief from heat overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2: The warm and humidity environment ahead of an approaching cold front will allow for increased chances of thunderstorm develop Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest CAM guidance shows plenty of instability across the region, with surface CAPE values anywhere from 500 to 1500 J/kg, with temperatures in the 80s to near 90 and dewpoints in the 60s. Forcing will be mainly from an upper level weak wave and its potential interactions with topography, while surface forcing looks minimal Tuesday afternoon into the overnight period, and mid level lapse rates don't look overly impressive. The primary hazard with any strong to severe storms that do develop look to be damaging winds. SPC has placed much of the region a Slight Risk for severe weather, so be sure to monitor the forecast especially if you have any outdoor plans. The main cold front looks to drop across the region on Wednesday, bringing higher chances of precipitation with it. As we get closer to the event, the timing of the cold front or fronts should become more set. Should the front be delayed, the potential for stronger storms would increase during the day on Wednesday with more time to destabilize. KEY MESSAGE 3: Temperatures trend much cooler Thursday behind Wednesday's front with northwest flow resulting in cold air advection and a return to highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds slow overnight with skies clearing; this may be a period of concern for some frost outside the Champlain Valley with lows in the mid/upper 30s for many locations, and low 40s for the Champlain Valley. Conditions are favored to remain dry into Friday with temperatures rising back to seasonal averages in the mid/upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Models begin to split on precipitation timing heading into the weekend. Consensus maintains some chances of showers increasing Saturday with more widespread rain Sunday. However, a number of models are beginning to hold onto the ridge longer delaying precipitation onset until the late weekend. Either way, a pattern shift to deep return flow from the Gulf Coast northeastward into the Northeast is appearing probable. This flow pattern would result in multiple days of rain potential once it sets up. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...A low level jet will sweep through this afternoon promoting some LLWS for MSS/SLK/PBG/EFK. Surface winds at PBG could gust 20-30kts at times with favorable off- lake, channeled flow while most other terminals see gusts around 20kts. Gusts drop by 00Z with clouds thickening early morning as a diffluent flow pattern moves over the region with some increasing elevated instability. A few showers will be possible after 06Z, but widespread LLWS will return as the next lljet moves into the region 00-12Z. Winds slacken overnight but pick up again Tuesday morning. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Monday... A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Channel southerly flow will result in winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon, with even higher gusts possible. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kremer DISCUSSION...Boyd/Kremer AVIATION...Neiles MARINE...Kremer  124 FXUS63 KARX 181758 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1258 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storm threat returns through the area today with primary concern for damaging winds and secondary concerns of large hail and isolated tornadoes. Higher confidence for severe storms and storm initiation lies southwest of the forecast area into central and southwest Iowa with storms weakening as they lift northeast through the evening hours. - Colder with showers for Tuesday with colder temperatures sticking around into the weekend. Low chance for some local areas to see Frost Tuesday and Wednesday nights. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Morning Observations & Synoptic Setup Today: An upper level longwave trough over the Rocky Mountain West on GOES water vapor imagery loops, evidently amplifying in enhancement of meridional GOES-derived upper level jet streaks lee of the Rocky Mountains, causes cyclogenesis over the Central Plains and subsequent reinvigoration of low level moisture transport, resulting in a similar severe weather set up as Sunday for the Upper Mississippi River Valley through this evening into tonight. Low Level Capping Limiting Local, Widespread Confidence Today: While it remains quite moist in the low levels early this morning, GOES upper level water vapor imagery loops and derived upper level winds depict a meagerly zonal perturbation eradicating moisture from the local forecast area to the east, tied to the long bowing non-severe radar returns from southern Iowa through northern Wisconsin. High resolution model analyses (18.06/18.00Z) suggest 850mb/925mb drying persisting through the early afternoon before cyclogenesis along the lingering low level baroclinic boundary spanning from the Mid Missouri River Valley to the northeast, kinked by anticyclonic rotation over Minnesota, initiates low level moisture transport northeastward towards the forecast area. The local drier, warmer low level air will cause another capping inversion, inherently increasing dependence on northern extent of moisture return (i.e., warm front) through the forecast area today. Current, further limiting factors include diurnal timing close to sunset and deamplification of the upper level wave as it nears the Upper Mississippi River Valley through the afternoon, both decreasing confidence in northerly frontal transport. Summarily, the current temporal and resultant spatial window for convection to become surface based or even achieve sufficient forcing to access enhanced MUCAPE (2000+ J/kg) from steeper mid level lapse rates limits local confidence. Furthermore, high resolution soundings and spatial analysis of available shear magnitudes are messy, at best. Splotches of severe storm supportive shear values across the forecast area remain tied closer to the actual frontal boundary, from southwest to northeast Minnesota through the afternoon and evening, eventually coinciding into the nighttime hours when a local capping inversion is more likely. The two synoptic factors or scenarios that would increase local severe threat through today would be a stronger wave lifting north out of the Southern Plains this morning or limited eradication of low level moisture this morning. Severe Storm Potential Timing, Location, & Impacts Today: Current confidence for damaging winds as the main hazard primarily along southwestern peripheral counties in northeast Iowa potentially into bordering counties of southwest Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota with secondary hazards of large hail and isolated tornado(es) this evening into tonight. While all hinge on northern extent of return flow and warm front location, damaging wind concerns are more widespread into western and central Wisconsin given the rapid ejection of the trough causing quick storm motions of potentially 50+ kts. Colder with Patchy Showers Tuesday: Eventually the upper level trough axis traverses east through the forecast overnight into Tuesday morning, advecting light rain showers into early Tuesday morning with additional cumulus popcorn shower potential into the daytime from steepening low level lapse rates within a low level CAA regime. Quite chilly showers to boot with daytime highs in the mid 50s to 60s and confidence for 925mb/850mb temperatures dropping 15+ C from 19.00Z to 20.00Z. Colder & Mostly Dry Into The Weekend: The colder than normal temperatures expected to stick around the Upper Mississippi River Valley until the weekend due to lingering low level anticyclonic flow locking in advection from a Canadian Continental quasi-polar airmass situated over the northern Great Lakes. Current confidence in lowest temperatures Tuesday night may graze Frost headlines along western peripheral counties in southeast Minnesota as well as northern peripheral counties in central Wisconsin Tuesday and Wednesday nights. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR to MVFR conditions currently present across the region with south to southwest winds at or below 12 kts. Most locations currently seeing MVFR CIGs in Southeast Minnesota and Northeast Iowa will likely not see improvement through the afternoon as the stratus deck should persist. Another round of showers and storms is expected to move in from the west/southwest this evening, with impacts at the terminals beginning between 01-03Z tonight. This line will gradually move east with lingering showers continuing into the early morning hours. Widespread IFR CIGs are expected to build in behind the showers for tomorrow morning before gradually lifting to MVFR late in the period. VFR conditions are not expected to return until after 18Z tomorrow. Winds behind the showers will turn to the northwest and pick up to between 10-20 kts with gusts in the 20-30 kt range by late morning. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JAR AVIATION...Barendse  144 FXUS63 KDTX 181758 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 158 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions exist today and Tuesday which support the risk of severe thunderstorms each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The strongest storms are capable of damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. - A cold front Tuesday night ushers in dry and cooler weather for Wednesday and Thursday. - The next chance of rain arrives Friday and Friday night. && .AVIATION... Conditions deteriorate this afternoon and evening as a line of strong to severe thunderstorms moves through the airspace. VFR ceilings and visibilities drop sharply along the interface of the convective line with temporary IFR conditions likely. Upstream observations and local storm reports indicate gusts in excess of 70 mph are possible with this organized line. Current trajectories reveal storm motion of approximately 45 mph, forecast to move through the terminals between 20Z and 23Z. A conditionally unstable airmass is allowing for a few pre-trough storms to develop ahead of the line with low confidence that these storms survive across the airfields. However, did move up the TEMPO period for the Metro terminals to account for the possibility of slightly earlier discrete activity. Limited model signal for widespread redevelopment late this evening behind the line, although better chances exist at MBS. Winds decrease slightly overnight, holding from the southwest into Tuesday with a mainly dry start and D21/DTW Convection...Most likely time-frame for thunder will be from 20-22Z. A period of IFR visibility will accompany the line of storms. Potential for additional thunderstorms has decreased for Tuesday afternoon/evening, but a chance remains. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, then low- medium for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. * Medium for ceilings at or below 5000 ft with thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1148 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 UPDATE... The setup for severe thunderstorms remains favorable for SE Mi this afternoon and evening with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Instability trends are certainly on track as full morning sun has already lifted temperatures into the lower 80s all areas with a few mid 80s reported leading up to the noon hour. The 12Z DTX sounding is also capped around 750 mb, enough to allow buildup of but easily eroded by the inbound MCV. Model MLCAPE forecasts up around 2000 J/kg in HREF mean and RAP projections are then within reach by mid afternoon to establish a receptive downstream environment for the ongoing convective complex as it moves NE into the area. The system is already demonstrating benefits of the locally enhanced wind shear profile supplied by the parent MCV resulting in a mature linear convective mode, however this is where the most uncertainty lies in terms of downstream persistence. Model projections really struggle to maintain 0-6 km bulk shear above 25 knots which suggests the system enters SE Mi near full strength but is open to gusting out at some point while crossing SE Mi and exiting into Lake Huron and Ontario by early evening. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 DISCUSSION... Warm frontal boundary responsible for the prolific hail producing supercellular activity across portions of the Saginaw valley and northern thumb late Sunday will finally ease north of the region this morning as higher magnitude warmth increases influence within deepening southerly flow. Benign conditions ensured thru late morning as stability holds under modest capping. Influx of higher quality moisture will commence during this time, establishing a notable moisture gradient from west to east by early afternoon /dewpoint of mid 60s west to upper 50s east/. This affords a moderate level of diurnal boundary layer destabilization for at least western sections. Given an afternoon temperature of middle 80s, mlcape projection of upwards of 1500-2000 j/kg will peak across the Saginaw valley and down through the Highway 23 corridor. This leaves a receptive downstream environment for potential reorganization/ expansion of any MCV governed remnant nocturnal convective activity spilling downstream. A fairly strong model consensus exists on this scenario, targeting lower Michigan for a mid-late afternoon increase in coverage. A broader threat window locally between 19z and 01z with dependence on pace of the MCV. The background wind field remains modest, but subject to a localized meaningful increase both across the lower levels and with greater depth as the feature moves through. Supportive environment to offer a risk of both large hail and damaging wind gusts, with greater overall potential with westward extent. A focused area of higher SRH does materialize as low level flow backs briefly with a slight shift in the pressure gradient orientation. Therefore, cannot completely discount the possibility for a more organized, rotating updraft to present a brief, isolated tornado threat. Outside of the convective window, forecast continues to highlight gusty southerly conditions reaching 30 to 35 mph at times today. The seasonably warm and humid conditions will exist again Tuesday ahead of a cold front. A more muddled early day picture in terms of both cloud cover and precipitation chances, as a portion of the model solution space suggest possible activity prior to 18z owing to some combination of the ongoing moisture advection and remnant midwest convection leftover from tonight. Degree and pace of destabilization certainly still subject to change. Assumption for at least a weakly unstable environment timed favorably with an evening cold frontal passage will present an opportunity for deeper updrafts to organize within a sufficient background deep layer wind field along the frontal zone. The SPC Day 2 outlook maintains a slight risk designation to highlight the associated strong wind and large hail threat for the late Tuesday period. Warm sector environment will again become diurnally gusty, with winds reaching 30 to 35 mph from the south at times. Notably cooler post-frontal environment arrives Wednesday. This will occur with the backdrop of increasing low to mid level ridging, ensuring a stretch of dry and stable conditions lasting into Thursday. Low level thermal trough marked by 850 mb temperatures of lower single digits, lending to below average readings during this time. Coldest conditions Thursday morning as the surface high centers locally - lows dipping into the 30s in some locations. Dry conditions likely to hold under a modest warming trend Friday, as the next system organizes upstream. This system will introduce the next chance of rain Friday night into Saturday. MARINE... A warm front releases north across Lake Huron this morning, with southerly winds expanding across all local waters. Strong low level jet winds will struggle to mix down over the open waters where cool water temperatures maintain stable over-lake conditions. Gusty southwest flow will thus be confined to the nearshore waters, aided by warmer water temperatures and land influence. Frequent gusts today and Tuesday are expected to hold between 25 and 30 knots, but an isolated gust to 35 knots over Saginaw Bay cannot be entirely ruled out. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for today and will be needed Tuesday as well. More localized wind/wave impacts arrive with thunderstorm activity this afternoon-evening, and again Tuesday when a cold front sweeps through the area. There is potential for some of these storms to be strong to severe with all modes of severe weather in play. The cold front comes through Tuesday night, followed by high pressure filling in mid-week to support a quieter and more seasonable late May pattern. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441>443. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....KGK UPDATE.......BT DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.