099 FXUS61 KGYX 182005 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 405 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of far southern New Hampshire Tuesday. Temperatures will climb into the lower 90s into the early afternoon, with heat index values up to 95. A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been expanded to include all of New Hampshire and much of southwestern Maine Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot, well above normal temperatures move into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected Tuesday, with warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Another round of hot temperatures is possible Wednesday, mainly focused from the interior to the coast. 2. An approaching cold front will bring chances for thunderstorms Tuesday and chances for showers and storms Wednesday when the front crosses. Any thunderstorm that develops Tuesday will have the potential to become severe. 3. High pressure builds in Thursday and Friday for mostly dry and cooler weather. Uncertainty exists going into the weekend as moisture approaches from the southwest while high pressure may keep things dry through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Broad warm sector across the eastern CONUS is evident on 850mb analysis. Upper jet remains well north of the Great Lakes, and low level SW winds will begin to advect warmer low level temperatures tonight. Brief high pres moves overhead tonight bringing mostly clear skies and calm winds. The incoming low level warm airmass makes its presence known, developing a very steep low level inversion through the evening hours. This is especially pronounced along the ME coast where surface winds become onshore with some fog potentially moving inland late tonight. By Tuesday morning, clear skies should allow full sun for rapid surface heating through the morning hours. The incoming airmass will near record max climo for temps at 850mb over much of New England, sitting in the 99.5 percentile for southern NH and through coastal/interior ME. Daytime mixing will easily tap into this air pushing surface temperatures into the upper 80s, with low 90s for the southern half of NH. This won't be as humid as our summer heat events as the low level moisture is thin. However being the first hot, summer-like heat of the season, went ahead with a Heat Advisory for Hillsborough and interior Rockingham counties in New Hampshire. Heat index values will largely remain in the lower 90s here, but will approach 95 through the afternoon. Southwest breeze continues into the Tues overnight hours, and this will keep temps warm. Lows only dip into the upper 60s to around 70 for much of the interior and coast Tuesday night, mitigating temp recovery. This sets up another warm day for Wednesday, but current forecast highs fall short of those on Tuesday. The hot temps will be more focused on coastal/interior ME and SE NH as a cold front approaches from the west. This should bring more seasonable temps for the mountains and foothills depending on convective activity. As the front pushes off the coast Wed evening, a more refreshing night is expected with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure and attendant warm front will be lifting northeastward through Quebec Tuesday with the trailing cold front draped southwestward through the Great Lakes region. This will leave northern New England within the warm sector Tuesday into Tuesday night as the cold front is progged to cross Wednesday. Temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points around 60 will yield SB CAPE upwards of 1500 J/kg Tuesday afternoon. Deep layer shear of 25 to 35 kts will support some organized convection while a limiting factor will be that the main source of lift, the cold front, will remain well west of the area through Tuesday night. The 12Z HREF suggests that widely scattered storms will remain possible in the absence of lift with few containing robust rotating updrafts. The best storm chances will be during the afternoon across the interior while a few cam solutions suggest storms could track all the way to the coast. The primary hazard will be damaging winds as model soundings show inverted V profiles with dew point depressions greater than 20 degrees. Mid level lapse rates are not impressive while hail will still be possible with any strong rotating updraft. CAMs suggest the chances for storms will diminish Tuesday night, however, as the forecast area remains in the warm sector some overnight convection cannot be ruled out. The cold front will finally arrive into western New England Wednesday morning and will push offshore Wednesday afternoon. Available CAM guidance suggests that a corridor of SB CAPE around 1000 J/kg will develop ahead of the front with deep layer shear around 35 kts. Most solutions push the front through the area prior to peak heating limiting thunderstorm potential to areas south of the mountains. Dry air arriving aloft may also limit any sustained updrafts with the latest outlook from SPC keeping the Marginal Risk south of the area for Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in from the WNW Wednesday night into Thursday bringing a period of breezy northwest winds. Skies look to be mostly sunny Thursday withs highs ranging from the 50s north to mid 60s along the coast. High pressure will center over southern New England Friday allowing winds to relax across the south while a short wave moving through eastern Canada will maintain breezy conditions across the mountains and central Maine. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 50s north to upper 60s south of the mountains under mostly fair skies. Short waves ejecting out of a trough out of the central US will send moisture towards New England. Global models suggest that high pressure over the Northeast will help suppress this moisture into Saturday into Sunday. The NBM generally keeps PoPs less than 50 percent through the weekend which seems reasonable at this time range. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18z Tuesday...VFR through this evening as winds become calm. Onshore flow along the ME coast could develop low stratus and/or fog to RKD/PWM at or after midnight local. This may only be in vicinity of PSM. Fog should then lift Tues morning after sunrise and a offshore wind shift for PWM south. 35kt LLWS possible for a duration tonight as a steep surface inversion develops. SW winds increase after sunrise Tuesday, with gusts 15 to 20 kt. Isolated to scattered showers develop into early afternoon, with TS possible through to the evening. TS may be focused along a line, passing west to east. MVFR vis possible in SHRA. Outlook: Tuesday night: VFR as SHRA chances exit the coast in the evening, with SW breeze continuing overnight. No sig wx. Wednesday: Scattered showers and TS may bring localized restrictions late morning early afternoon. Otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday night: VFR with NW winds gusting up to 20 kts. Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Friday night through Saturday: Clouds may increase and lower across southern NH and Coastal Maine. Low confidence in height and extent, but could see periods of MVFR south of the mountains. && .MARINE... Onshore winds advect moisture over the coastal waters tonight, with areas of fog possible. This may continue into Tues morning. Showers and storms develop inland Tues afternoon and may track towards the NH/ME coast by evening. SW windscontinue overnight, nearing 25 kt but confidence isn't high enough to issue a SCA at this time. Southwest winds turn westerly Wednesday as a cold front approaches and crosses the waters during the afternoon. Winds may gust up to 25 kts with seas approaching 5 feet. Winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds Thursday into Saturday as high pressure builds over the Northeast. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for MEZ023>028. NH...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Tuesday for NHZ013- 014. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NHZ012-013- 015. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cornwell/Schroeter  109 FXUS63 KUNR 182005 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread precipitation tapers off this afternoon and evening. - Cold temperatures continue with a freeze warning in effect Tuesday morning. - Gradual warmup mid-week with precipitation chances returning towards the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 128 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Water Vapor and upper air models show troughing just east of the Rockies running through the northern and central plains, with upper ridges over the New England region and off the west coast. 19Z surface analysis depicts a surface low to our east over MN, surface high over central MT. Radar shows widespread precipitation across the forecast area, with some of the higher elevations receiving light accumulations of snow today. Winds are currently breezy out of the northwest to north, with temperatures in the 30s to low 40s. Precipitation will taper off from west to east late afternoon through the evening, as trough slides eastward today. Cool temperatures continue tonight as clouds clear up and light northwest winds continue. Much of the area is expected to reach near or below freezing overnight. HREF probability for temps to reach at or below freezing sit at 80-100% for areas from the Black Hills and west. Further east will be a bit trickier as cloud cover will linger into tonight as the trough slowly shifts eastward. A Freeze warning has been issued for most of our plains areas, with a frost advisory in effect for part of south-central SD for Tuesday morning. Brief and weak ridge sets over the region mid-week, resulting in drier conditions and a warming trend towards near seasonable. Another wave rides southeast from western Canada towards the northern plains later in the week, increasing chances for precipitation late Thursday into Friday. Shortwave ridging moves over the weekend, bringing warmer temps back in as well. By Sunday/Monday the region should see highs climb back into the 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1114 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Precipitation and low clouds are crossing the region with MVFR/LIFR conditions. Local LIFR conditions may occur in/near the Black Hills due to snow. Conditions will slowly improve late this afternoon and evening. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ046-047. WY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ054>056-058>060. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...13  840 FXUS65 KABQ 182012 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 212 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread continues today with the most critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions focused over eastern New Mexico. - Hazardous crosswinds will impact high profile vehicles along with lowering visibility due to blowing dust this afternoon. - Afternoon thunderstorm activity increases over eastern New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A windy day is coming to fruition over northern and central New Mexico today, as an upper low has rounded UT and is now starting to lift into CO as a shortwave. This morning's 12Z model runs had lower initial condition wind speeds at 700 mb, but it should be noted there is a dearth of 1200UTC raobs to assimilate nowadays. Regardless, speeds of 30-45 kt were modeled this morning, and these will reduce slightly with the speed max transitioning farther northeast through the afternoon. Gusts have already exceeded 50 mph at Las Vegas, NM and more sites will join soon. Blowing dust is still a concern, and we will be monitoring the need for any Blowing Dust Advisories through the afternoon. Shower activity was been scant, with radar echoes largely staying north of our northern zones, and our window of opportunity for precip today has passed. Winds will start to decouple in western and central NM this evening, but the backdoor cold front will send rapid pressure rises into northeastern NM, as the backdoor front plunges in. The front will spill down all of the eastern plains before dawn Tuesday, bringing gusty northerly winds, and higher dewpoints. The front is now modeled to advance farther west by some higher resolution models, spilling into the Rio Grande shortly after dawn, and this would invoke a gusty gap/canyon wind at vulnerable locations such as the Glorieta Pass and eastern ABQ. Winds have been increased here accordingly. Through the afternoon Tuesday, winds in the eastern NM plains will veer southerly while a large swath of convection breaks out over TX where the front will meet the rich Gulf moisture. Another upper level trough will move into UT, essentially phasing with pressure falls east of the Baja peninsula and creating a sharper trough upstream of us than what was modeled just a couple days ago. This will keep relatively strong southwesterlies aloft (15-25 kt at 700 mb) feeding over NM and it will also help draw the easterly wind into areas like Santa Fe and Albuquerque during the morning. This alignment will also place a north-south oriented corridor of stronger winds over central NM near the Rio Grande Tuesday afternoon where gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common. There also is sufficient mid level moisture modeled to yield high-based cumulus and virga over north central zones Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will run several degrees cooler (and 10 to 15 degrees below normal) in eastern zones Tuesday afternoon while western and central zones warm closer to seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Surface high pressure will continue to build into the central and south central plains early Wednesday with a synoptic east southeasterly surface flow becoming established into west TX and eastern NM. Very high dewpoints will be pooling in southern and eastern TX, moderating some as the moist air infiltrates the higher plains in our eastern zones. Widespread low stratus clouds would likely accompany this moist easterly push along with drizzle and sprinkles Wednesday morning. True to form, the NAM continues to be more aggressive, bringing the moisture and easterly winds all the way westward to the Rio Grande while other synoptic models keep it over the eastern plains. In fact, the NAM/RRFS are so persistent with the easterly surface flow well into the afternoon, that it keeps the low stratus entrenched over much of eastern NM and does not allow the boundary layer to destabilize or exploit the newfound moisture for convection. In contrast, the GFS and other synoptic members mix the moisture eastward, allowing a sharp dewpoint gradient and dryline to form over the eastern counties where destabilization and convective initiation would ensue Wednesday afternoon. The NBM offers a good blend to the dewpoint extremes, but produces an artificially soft gradient that will not likely be representative of reality: a much sharper north-south oriented dryline. Have tried to steer the forecast dewpoints/POPs/Sky towards a more realistic conceptual model, but this will be tricky to pinpoint the placement of the dryline and any subsequent storms. The NBM plastered very high POPs across many eastern zones, and this was tempered and lowered. Through Thursday, two upper level features are becoming more discretely apparent, the residual weak trough over the upper Baja peninsula and another shortwave trough dropping into the central Rockies. These look to stay far enough away to not pose much impact to NM weather, and Thursday's forecast will hinge on low layer moisture and how far west it sloshes during the early morning before mixing back out eastward into the afternoon. The latest consensus is carrying the moisture (40's - 50's dewpoints) farther east and closer to the eastern NM and west TX border. This will of course reduce chances for deep, moist convection with a smaller subset of eastern counties observing isolated to scattered cells. The central Rockies trough would then seem to drag drier westerly flow into eastern NM going into Friday, but there is the potential for another backdoor cold front to disrupt this, keeping quite a bit of uncertainty in the dewpoint/POP forecast for Friday. Should a good frontal intrusion occur, moisture would linger over eastern zones into Friday night and Saturday with veering winds reintroducing the prospects for deep, moist convection and perhaps a few strong to severe storms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Winds will pose the primary aviation weather hazard through this evening along with areas of reduced visibility in blowing dust. Southwest gusts of 35 to 45 kt will be common this afternoon with the highest gusts concentrated over the central to northeast highlands (KCQC, KLVS, KRTN, and KCAO). Visibility reductions are generally forecast to stay within a MVFR range (3 to 5 SM), but a few localized lower reductions cannot be ruled out in dust prone areas or near recently plowed fields. A fast-moving cold front will sweep into the eastern half of New Mexico tonight, causing winds to shift in direction with northerly gusts of 25 to 40 kt accompanying. These winds will eventually turn and spill into KABQ and KSAF shortly after dawn Tuesday, gradually decreasing by noon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A fire weather growing pattern is underway with widespread critical to locally extreme conditions today. As forecast, the strongest winds have been focused over the central mountain chain eastward, and more specifically the northeast highlands where gusts are reaching 55 to 60 mph. Many areas are also already observing less than 10% RH. Winds will start to abate in western and central zones after sunset, and while winds will stay gusty in northeastern areas, they will be shifting northerly with higher dewpoints (and rising RH) as a cool, moist backdoor front arrives. Winds in the plains will veer in direction, turning south through the day Tuesday with breezy speeds persisting. It is also still forecast to be breezy in western zones Tuesday, and this will lead to a convergence zone over central NM with southwesterlies and southeasterlies meeting over the Rio Grande and central mountain chain where wind speeds will be enhanced (gusts of 30 to 35 mph). This centralized area of enhanced winds will introduce a couple to a few hours of marginal to spotty critical conditions Tuesday afternoon, namely in the lower Rio Grande valley. Both the spatial coverage and duration of these critical conditions were not widespread or long enough to justify doing a Fire Weather Watch for FWZ106, but if forecast wind speeds increase a bit more this could quickly change. Some breeziness will redevelop in similar areas on Wednesday, once again leading to localized critical fire weather conditions in the lower Rio Grande valley, but gusts appear to be slightly lower than what is forecast on Tuesday. The long duration wind threat reduces more into Thursday and the remainder of the work week, as weak and ill-defined upper level features become established and reduce wind fields aloft. This will keep wind concerns confined to thunderstorm outflows in eastern NM and occasionally in central gaps/canyons when moisture intrudes from the east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 39 75 43 77 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 30 71 37 73 / 0 10 10 10 Cuba............................ 38 72 42 74 / 0 10 10 10 Gallup.......................... 34 74 37 74 / 0 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 38 73 41 71 / 0 10 5 0 Grants.......................... 37 78 40 77 / 0 10 5 0 Quemado......................... 40 75 43 74 / 0 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 78 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 41 75 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 38 77 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 43 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 30 65 36 65 / 0 10 30 30 Los Alamos...................... 46 71 50 71 / 0 10 10 30 Pecos........................... 40 69 43 69 / 0 10 10 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 67 42 68 / 0 10 20 40 Red River....................... 31 60 33 61 / 0 10 30 50 Angel Fire...................... 23 64 32 64 / 0 20 20 60 Taos............................ 34 72 42 72 / 0 10 20 30 Mora............................ 36 65 41 66 / 0 10 20 60 Espanola........................ 43 78 46 78 / 0 10 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 45 73 48 73 / 0 10 5 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 43 77 46 78 / 0 10 5 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 80 54 80 / 0 10 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 81 55 82 / 0 10 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 83 49 84 / 0 10 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 81 53 83 / 0 10 5 5 Belen........................... 49 85 50 86 / 0 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 82 52 82 / 0 10 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 46 84 48 84 / 0 10 5 5 Corrales........................ 49 82 52 83 / 0 10 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 48 84 49 84 / 0 10 5 5 Placitas........................ 49 79 52 79 / 0 10 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 50 81 53 81 / 0 10 5 10 Socorro......................... 52 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 75 49 74 / 0 10 10 20Tijeras......................... 46 77 49 77 / 0 10 10 20 Edgewood........................ 42 76 46 76 / 0 10 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 39 78 41 77 / 0 10 10 30 Clines Corners.................. 42 71 44 68 / 0 5 20 40 Mountainair..................... 44 77 46 78 / 0 0 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 46 77 47 77 / 0 0 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 53 79 53 79 / 0 0 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 44 73 44 72 / 0 0 10 20 Capulin......................... 33 61 38 57 / 0 0 30 40 Raton........................... 36 66 42 63 / 0 0 40 60 Springer........................ 39 69 43 65 / 0 0 30 40 Las Vegas....................... 39 66 43 64 / 0 0 30 50 Clayton......................... 39 66 43 60 / 0 0 30 50 Roy............................. 41 68 44 62 / 0 0 30 40 Conchas......................... 47 76 49 68 / 0 0 30 50 Santa Rosa...................... 45 76 48 67 / 0 0 30 50 Tucumcari....................... 48 78 50 70 / 0 0 30 50 Clovis.......................... 47 78 51 68 / 0 0 30 70 Portales........................ 49 81 51 71 / 0 0 30 70 Fort Sumner..................... 48 81 51 70 / 0 0 30 50 Roswell......................... 56 86 57 77 / 0 0 20 50 Picacho......................... 52 80 51 74 / 0 0 20 50 Elk............................. 50 79 49 76 / 0 0 10 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106-109- 121>126. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ210-212>216-223- 226>234. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52  818 FXUS66 KPDT 182011 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 111 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Wallowa County today - Breezy to locally windy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps today and Tuesday - Warming and mostly dry Tuesday through the week && .DISCUSSION... Daytime heating has led to modest instability (surface-based CAPE of a couple hundred J/kg or less per SPC's RAP-based mesoanalysis and forecast soundings from the 12Z HREF/REFS) this afternoon across the Blues and Washington Cascades. While activity has been isolated elsewhere, scattered rain showers have developed across Wallowa County. Through evening, there is a slight chance (15 percent) of thunder across Wallowa County, with lower (5-10 percent) chances of rain showers and thunder for other parts of the Blues as well as the Washington Cascades. Tuesday through Saturday, warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions are forecast region-wide as an upper-level ridge of high pressure will likely (90-95 percent chance) build into the region from the Pacific and dominate the weather. A couple weak shortwaves passing through northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest diurnally induced instability (surface-based CAPE of a up to a couple hundred J/kg from forecast soundings) may facilitate some isolated showers for the mountains through Thursday, but PoPs are low (10 percent or less). Breezy to locally windy westerly winds are forecast through the Cascade gaps today and Tuesday, but not anticipating a need for any wind headlines. In yesterday's discussion, mentioned the potential for westerly winds to meet advisory criteria on Thursday. Ensemble guidance has since trended towards a solution that would lead to a wind reversal to mostly light northeasterly (offshore) winds late Wednesday and Thursday as a shortwave digs south across the northern Plains and Rockies, just clipping the edge of our forecast area. Considering there is still some ensemble spread, will place confidence in this solution at medium (60 percent). Considerable uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern is present in ensemble solutions by the weekend, with roughly 45-50 percent of the variance in solutions explained by timing differences among solutions regarding the arrival of a trough or closed low from the Pacific. The NBM has westerly winds returning to the region by late Friday, persisting through the weekend. Highest chances (10-40 percent) of reaching advisory-level winds have now been pushed back to Saturday and Sunday through wind-prone areas of the lower elevations, primarily the eastern Columbia River Gorge, north-central Oregon, the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Kittitas Valley. Of course, the magnitude of winds will be tied to the synoptic pattern, and given the uncertainty (see paragraph above), can't really talk about much confidence in forecast details yet. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours at all sites. Winds will be diurnally and terrain-driven, breezy from late morning through evening. There is a very low (10 percent) chance of rain showers this afternoon at YKM with even lower chances (5 percent or less) elsewhere. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 42 72 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 46 72 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 44 77 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 44 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 44 75 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 41 68 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 30 72 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 36 68 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 34 71 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 45 74 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86  929 FXUS65 KTFX 182014 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 214 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - It will be cold this afternoon through Tuesday morning. - Isolated rain and snow showers will affect North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana this afternoon through Friday with the heaviest and most widespread precipitation Wednesday through Thursday. - It will gradually warm up Tuesday afternoon through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: This afternoon an upper-level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. As a result rain/snow showers and cold temperatures (well-below) seasonal averages will linger across the area. This afternoon rain/snow showers will primarily be confined to the Continental Divide with a few isolated rain showers spreading eastward to the plains of North-central Montana. On Tuesday the upper-level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana in the morning before northwest flow aloft moves over the area by the afternooon. This will keep cold temperatures across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana Tuesday morning before they gradually warm up by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday afternoon there will be isolated lower-elevation rain showers and mountain snow showers due to the northwest flow aloft. Additionally there will be enough instability around in the afternoon that there is the potential for a few rumbles of thunder. On Wednesday an upper-level trough, associated with a Canadian Cold Front, moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring rain to lower-elevations and snow to mountain locations on Wednesday. On Wednesday temperatures will cool down to slightly below seasonal averages. Wednesday afternoon some instability will build and allow a few rumbles of thunder to occur across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Thursday the upper-level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow cooler temperatures with widespread precipitation to linger over the area on Thursday. On Friday northwest flow aloft moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up to near seasonal averages with isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. On Saturday and Sunday an upper-level ridge/zonal flow builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm, mostly dry, and windy weather to the area for Memorial Day weekend. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: On Tuesday morning there is a 30 - 70% chance for low temperatures of 28 degrees or colder across the lower-elevations of North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Tuesday there is a 20% chance for thunder across North-central Montana. On Wednesday there is a 15 - 30% chance for thunder across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Wednesday along the Rocky Mountain Front there is greater than a 50 - 70% chance for a half inch of liquid precipitation. On Wednesday along the Highway 200 Corridor between Great Falls and Lewistown there is 25 - 40% chance for a half inch of liquid precipitation or greater. Elsewhere across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana there is a 10 - 40% chance for a quarter inch of liquid precipitation or greater on Wednesday. Wednesday through Thursday there is greater than a 50% chance for 2 inches of snow or greater across the mountains of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Saturday and Sunday there is a 20 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater. -IG && .AVIATION... 18/18Z TAF Period Primary concern this TAF period will be for low-VFR or MVFR ceilings at times through the afternoon. Additionally, numerous showers look to develop this afternoon, mostly near terrain, which will be capable of brief cig/vis reductions and briefly gusty winds at terminals in close proximity to mountains. Mountains will be obscured at times through the evening where showers form. Clouds begin to clear tonight, which paired light winds, will yield an opportunity for fog by Tuesday morning. Confidence in this fog developing at any specific terminal was too low to warrant mention in TAFs at this time, however. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 30 64 40 56 / 0 40 20 70 CTB 29 63 37 53 / 30 20 30 90 HLN 30 65 38 60 / 10 30 30 40 BZN 24 62 33 60 / 0 0 30 20 WYS 15 54 25 54 / 0 10 20 20 DLN 25 61 33 61 / 0 10 20 10 HVR 28 68 40 60 / 0 40 60 50 LWT 26 60 36 56 / 0 20 30 70 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  105 FXUS65 KPIH 182017 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 217 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A very chilly overnight tonight in the Snake River plain and eastern Magic Valley. Frost and Freeze bulletins have been issued. - Some precipitation, including Thursday afternoon thunderstorms, is possible starting Tue evening and continuing through Thu afternoon. - Weaker wind until the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Tonight through Thu afternoon...Save for some showers in the extreme southeast corner of the forecast area, the next 24 hours will continue to be dry, cool to cold, and windy. This is due to an upper level trough currently in WY still pushing slowly eastward. The clear skies and continued northerly airflow means a quite cold overnight tonight, with 20 to 30 degrees expected in the Snake River plain. With the northerly flow not as strong in the eastern Magic Valley, temperatures are only expected to bottom out tonight in the middle 30s. These two reasons are why a Frost Advisory has been issued for the two Magic Valley zones and a Freeze Warning once again for all zones in the Snake River plain. The start time was mostly based on when the affected zones finally lose this strong wind tonight, which is still actually fairly late. By 19/15Z 19/0900MDT the temperatures should surge back above Freeze and Frost thresholds. The north wind is expected to shift to a southwest wind and not be as problematic for the Snake River plain for Tue. The light northerly wind in the morning will shift to a south to southwest wind for the afternoon, ending the need for a Lake Wind Advisory on Tue. This lighter south to west wind continues Wed, then a northerly wind returns for Thu. It doesn't take much for a Lake Wind Advisory to be needed in the north flow regime, so it may return. Finally, impulses moving through the northwest to west upper air flow will return on Tue night. This will mean showers over the north end of the forecast area that night, then a further digging southward will spread precipitation from a close low in central MT for heavier rainfall on Wed night and Thu morning. The precipitation will be mainly focused on the central Idaho mountains and the southern and eastern highlands, with the northern end of the Snake River plain most likely to see precipitation in the lower elevations. While isolated thunderstorms are possible Tue and Wed, Thu includes the associated cold front with this MT low actually coming through and generating high chance of thunderstorms. Since the afternoon has more unstable air, the best threat is in the eastern third of the forecast area. Thu night through next Mon...The low clears out early enough on Thu that while it is colder, the sunny skies of Fri should allow a warming trend to develop quickly. By Sat afternoon temperatures should soar above normal after a near normal Fri afternoon. A gradual warming trend continues at least into Mon, for both highs and lows. Weak troughing gets replaced by weak upper level ridging, which will allow some breezy westerly wind, but doesn't appear to bring an significant precipitation. It appears to be fairly limited to higher elevations that can provide lifting with west-facing slopes in the zonal flow, especially Fri and Sat. Only a minority of the solutions cluster around a wet scenario for eastern Idaho. This accounts for the warming trend. The zonal flow tightens starting Sat, so it will likely be breezy to windy for Sat/Sun/Mon, at least in the afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions through the forecast period. Gusty N/NE winds remain in place for the Snake Plain/Teton Valley terminals and these will continue into the early evening before beginning to taper off, becoming more light and variable overnight and into the day Tuesday. KSUN and KBYI will see a more westerly wind component this afternoon and evening and not nearly as breezy as the other locations. Not expecting any precip at terminals through the period with skies becoming more clear into Tuesday. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for IDZ051-055. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for IDZ052>054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Messick AVIATION...McKaughan  273 FXUS61 KOKX 182020 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 420 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM Tuesday to 8PM Wednesday. Air Quality Alerts for unhealthy for sensitive groups air quality for high ozone for both rest of today into this evening as well as Tuesday into Tuesday evening for portions of the region. Small craft advisory for ocean waters Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot airmass moving into the forecast region. Airmass getting relatively more humid also heading into midweek. Heat advisory NE NJ and NYC Tuesday late morning through Wednesday early evening. 2) Possible showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. Higher chances of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Marginal severe thunderstorm possibility. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend with chances of showers. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... That back door cold front is now east of the area. Ridging aloft has kept the area dry and warm. Mainly dry conditions continue into Tuesday with strong ridging aloft. Offshore high pressure and increasing low level SW warm air advection will make for much warmer temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as well. The models have shifted a few hours later with the timing of the cold front on Wednesday, thereby allowing for more daytime heating and less clouds. Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM Tuesday to 8PM Wednesday. This first high heat index event of the year for NE NJ and NYC. Warmest day Tuesday with SW flow and daytime mixing. Temperatures in the 90s for all of NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and much of interior Southern CT as well as much of Nassau County NY. Mid to upper 90s for high temperatures much NE NJ and NYC Metro for temperatures and heat indices. Dewpoints are mostly in the low 60s Tuesday. Slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. This same distribution exists for high temperatures on Wednesday as well but a few degrees cooler on average. The dewpoints increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday with values mainly in the low to mid 60s. So for Wednesday, temperatures a little less than the previous day but dewpoints a little higher than the previous day. Highs mostly in the lower 90s Wednesday for much of NE NJ and NYC with corresponding heat indices in the mid 90s. Again, slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. .KEY MESSAGE 2... There is some indication within the forecast models showing a pre-frontal trough developing across the interior for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for northern parts of the region. Possibility too for a strong to severe thunderstorm, with quick downburst of wind. This is just marginal risk. CAMs indicate this possibility of convection within their reflectivity fields. The cold front looks to move in first for Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT latter half of Wednesday afternoon and then crosses through the NYC Metro and coastal sections by early evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening. There is potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail. Flooding threat minimal with the westerly flow in the atmosphere and quick steering flow. However, a quick period of heavy rain and possible minor flooding cannot be ruled out with some thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend with quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. In its place, low pressure approaches from the south and west. Model variances on how far north the low reaches. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Northerly flow presents downslope warming first half of the day, allowing for coastal locations to be relatively warmer than inland. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid 60s to near 70 and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly really limiting the daytime warmth with more maritime influence. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A warm front lifts north of the region today. High pressure remains over the western Atlantic with a frontal system over the mid section of the country. T VFR through the TAF period. Southerly winds this afternoon increase to around 10kt with a some locations G15-18kt. Winds diminish tonight to under 10 kt from the S/SW. Winds are expected to increase once again on Tuesday with gusts once again to near 20kt. Gusts may be more occasional at times. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday: VFR. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt into eve. Isolated thunderstorm potential afternoon into early eve, mainly north of NYC terminals with brief MVFR or lower possible. Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible. NW windshift in the evening. Thursday: Mainly VFR. Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions through Tuesday morning. SCA on the ocean Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, marginal SCA for non- ocean waters but mostly below SCA criteria. Potential widespread SCA conditions Wednesday into Wednesday night. Mainly below SCA thereafter until holiday weekend when SCA conditions potentially return. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 17: KEWR: 68/2015 KBDR: 60/2025 KNYC: 70/1906 KLGA: 68/1965 KJFK: 63/1965 KISP: 62/2015 May 18: KEWR: 74/2017 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 75/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 65/2017 KISP: 63/1977 May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007- 009>011. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075- 176-178. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ004- 006-103>108. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...BC MARINE...JM  455 FXUS64 KMAF 182024 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 324 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through Tuesday. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame. - Critical fire weather conditions expected for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. - Rain and storm chances increase (40-80% chances) by the middle to latter part of the week. We will be monitoring a few strong to severe storms each day. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns over locations east of the Pecos River Wednesday into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 One more day of hot and dry weather with only a stray (10% to 15%) chance of showers/storms, before a cooling trend and increased chance of showers/storms beginning tomorrow. As the dryline that retrograded as far west as the Big Bend into Upper Trans Pecos and Lea County this morning surges east, strong southwest winds will redevelop. These winds will be aided by increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of a deepening trough over the Intermountain West, and along with keeping critical fire weather concerns over SE NM and parts of W TX (see Fire Weather Discussion), the stronger west/southwest downsloping winds will allow highs to rise a few degrees higher than yesterday into the 90s F, mid 80s F higher elevations, triple digits over central and northeast portions of the area as well as along the Rio Grande, and 105F to 110F readings once more for the Big Bend. Highest chance for a stray shower/storm will be over the northern Permian Basin this evening. Tonight, the dryline again retrogrades into central portions of the area. Accompanied increased boundary layer moisture will again limit overnight cooling and keep lows in the upper 60s F to mid 70s F east of the dryline, while drier air west of the dryline keeps lows in the 50s to lower 60s F. Low to medium (25% to 40%) rain chances develop late evening into early morning Tuesday as disturbances within mid to upper flow aloft and a backdoor cold front developing in from the northeast provide lift and focusing of moisture for shower/storm development. No widespread severe risk is anticipated into the morning. Tuesday will be a different story. With more disturbances developing northeast from the northern MX plateau into the Western Rolling Plains through the day, quickly renewed southeast upslope flow, and the dryline anchoring over east-central parts of the Permian Basin into Big Bend near the stalling cold front, lift and focusing of moisture both at the surface and aloft will be present for shower/storm development. Unlike tonight, severe weather will be possible tomorrow. SPC has eastern parts of the Permian Basin into Terrell County outlooked in a SLGT risk, with a MRGL risk over the the rest of the Permian Basin into the Upper Trans Pecos Big Bend. Storm coverage through the evening is expected to remain scattered with medium (35% to 50%) rain chances over easternmost regions and low (20% to 35%) farther west, unless storms can consolidate into a more numerous clusters or linear segments. Stronger storms have the potential to produce large hail up to 2" in diameter, damaging winds (especially if storm mode becomes more linear), and heavy rainfall. With strong directional shear from backed easterly winds, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out in the most rapidly intensifying severe storms, especially from Terrell County in to the southeast Permian Basin. Rainfall of 0.25" to 0.50" over easternmost parts of the Permian Basin with amounts up to 1.00" may pose flooding concerns for low-lying and poor drainage areas. With increased clouds and rain chances over central and eastern parts of the area along with "cooler" humid upslope flow, highs largely in the mid 80s to mid 90s F are forecast, with triple digits confined to the Rio Grande. These cooler daytime temperatures will allow lows to drop into the 50s to lower 60s F for much of the area tomorrow night, while intermittent disturbances aloft maintain low (20% to 30%) shower/storm chances over northern and eastern parts of the area. Even cooler temperatures and higher shower/storm chances with continued severe weather risk continue into the end of the week. Read the Long Term Discussion for more details. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Southwesterly flow aloft will remain prevalent over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an upper- level trough over the western CONUS. A diffuse boundary will extend from the eastern New Mexico to the Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Ascent will increase over much of our area as a series of shortwave impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft moves over the diffuse surface boundary Wednesday into Thursday. An easterly to southeasterly surface flow pattern will allow low level moisture to increase with dewpoints back into the 50s and 60s over most locations along and east of the mountains. We are still expecting increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with the best rain/storm chances over locations along and east of the mountains. Increasing deep layer moisture and associated precipitable water values up to 1 to 1.4 inches will bring potential for locally heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns east of the Pecos River late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Instability may be sufficient to bring at least a Marginal severe risk to portions of our area Wednesday and Thursday. Weak shortwave ridging aloft may build over the area by Friday bringing lower rain chances Friday afternoon and evening. There will still be enough moisture and instability along the lingering boundary to maintain low (10-20%) POPs on Friday. An upper-level trough or low may pivot over the forecast area this weekend with sufficient moisture remaining in place to keep a mention of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will trend cooler Wednesday through the weekend behind the front and with the increased rain chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions forecast throughout the TAF period. Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots at terminals from beginning of the period, with winds decreasing after 23Z-01Z. Winds shift to southeast for terminals on Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau 00Z- 04Z this evening, and for terminals on the Upper Trans Pecos 05Z-08Z tonight. Winds shift back to westerly thereafter, then backing to northerly as a cold front develops from northeast to southwest from 14Z into end of the period Tuesday morning. From Tuesday morning into early afternoon, there is a low to medium (25% to 40%) chance of showers/storms with brief MVFR or lower conditions possible at terminals on the northeast Permian Basin. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Well above normal temperatures, exceedingly dry conditions (both a lack of rainfall and critically low min RHs), and breezy winds will keep critical fire weather conditions in place across southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the northwest Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico Plains, and the Guadalupe Mountains through the early evening hours. Beyond today, critically low relative humidities return on Tuesday, but winds will be much lighter. The nearby dryline sharpens on Wednesday and is forced back towards the western edge of the CWA bringing strong moisture return and a chance for wetting rains for Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 90 60 78 / 0 40 20 60 Carlsbad 63 94 60 84 / 0 0 30 60 Dryden 72 96 67 87 / 0 20 20 40 Fort Stockton 66 97 64 87 / 0 10 0 60 Guadalupe Pass 60 85 59 80 / 0 0 10 50 Hobbs 58 90 56 75 / 0 0 30 80 Marfa 53 92 53 87 / 0 0 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 69 93 61 78 / 0 10 10 70 Odessa 68 93 62 79 / 0 10 10 70 Wink 62 95 62 83 / 0 0 10 60 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains- Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...94  487 FXUS65 KREV 182025 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 125 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Expect widespread freezing to near freezing temperatures on Tuesday morning. * A ridge builds back into the region by mid-week, allowing for warmer and drier conditions into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... * Today is on the chilly side across the region with below average temperatures and brisk north-northeast winds. Low temperatures tonight will fall between 30-40 degrees in western NV, and 20-30 degrees for the eastern Sierra communities. These readings are a few degrees warmer compared to Monday morning, but still around 5-10 degrees below average. Winds will remain east to northeast into the Tuesday, but will subside in strength by tonight. * A gradual warming trend will resume on Tuesday and continue into the weekend. High pressure in the east Pacific will slowly expand east over the region, which will increase atmospheric thicknesses and 500mb heights. This will allow for temperatures to trend up into the low to mid-80s in western NV and eastern Lassen County, and the mid to upper 70s for the eastern Sierra communities. This will be accompanied by much lighter winds, and dry weather. * For the upcoming Memorial Day weekend, the ensembles show anything from ridging with dry conditions and above average temperatures, to a trough pattern that is wetter and cooler. So, keep informed of the changes to the forecast this week as we approach the holiday weekend. -McKellar && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for all terminals today with breezy east/northeasterly afternoon winds (gusts up to 20 kts), albeit not nearly as strong as the winds yesterday. -Giralte/McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$  613 FXUS63 KLBF 182027 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold temperatures may lead to frost and freezing temperatures with the greatest threat generally west of highway 83. - Temperatures will be below normal through Friday with warmer readings expected Saturday through Monday. - Best precipitation chances are Thursday night through Friday. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored to the north of the Bahamas. Ridging extended north of this feature into the Mid- Atlantic and western Quebec. West of the ridge, broad southwesterly flow extended across the eastern half of the CONUS to the central and southern plains. Low pressure was located over central Utah with a trough extending south into eastern Arizona. A second shortwave trough was located over southern Saskatchewan and extended south into north central Montana. Further west, a ridge of high pressure extended across British Columbia north into the Yukon and western portions of the NW Territories of Canada. At the surface this afternoon, low pressure was located over southeastern Minnesota. A cold front extended south, then southwest of this feature into far SE Nebraska and SW Kansas. High pressure was anchored over northern Montana this afternoon. Winds were from the north or northeast across the forecast area this afternoon. Drizzle and very light rainfall was present across the area and temperatures ranged from 40 degrees at Gordon to 45 degrees at Ogallala. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Weak forcing will remain in place across northwestern and northern portions of the forecast area this evening with a lingering threat for precipitation. This threat will end during the overnight hours as weak high pressure builds into Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. This will result in some limited clearing, especially over western portions of the forecast area overnight. With lows forecast around the freezing mark, generally west of highway 61, decided to hoist a freeze warning for locations generally west of highway 61 tonight. Further east, overnight lows will bottom out in the 33 to 35 degree range and decided to hoist a frost advisory. This was in areas where the threat for freeze conditions is limited and cloud cover may become more of a factor overnight. Will we see frost in the advisory area remains uncertain and the latest NBM ensembles only have a 25 to 50 percent chance for sub 34 degree temps along the highway 83 corridor tonight so the advisory is a low to medium confidence advisory. On Tuesday, high pressure will nose into the forecast area from the west leading to limited clearing Tuesday afternoon. Highs Tuesday will struggle to get out of the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. High pressure will slide east into Iowa Tuesday night shifting winds to the south. A weak boundary will lift north overnight into southern Nebraska. At the same time, a weak upper level disturbance will emerge from the central Rockies into northeastern Colorado. Light precipitation will develop in advance of this feature and along the frontal boundary overnight Tuesday night. This will lead to a small threat for precipitation mainly over western and southwestern Nebraska overnight. Further northeast, skies will be mainly clear overnight, and with light winds expected and lows in the middle 30s, will have to watch out for frost potential in the NE forecast area Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A stationary front over southern Kansas, will liftnorth as a warm front on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop INVOF this feature Wednesday into WEdnesday night as it lifts north into central and northern Kansas. Some very light precipitation north of the warm front, mainly drizzle, may impact southern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night. Any precipitation amounts will be very light across the area and precipitation chances will be limited to slight and low end chance pops. A potent mid level trough will slide east from the central and northern Rockies Thursday into Thursday night. In advance of this feature, low level moisture advection will increase across the forecast area with low level dew points approaching the lower 50s. As this feature emerges onto the high plains Thursday night, the latest deterministic GFS and EC solns develop a decent chance for precipitation Thursday night through Friday night. The current NBM forecast does have some low likely pops Thursday night into Friday across the forecast area. Given the forecast QPF's and the QPF probabilities from the NBM ensembles, likely pops seem justified attm. Conditions will begin to dry out after Friday as a more zonal low amplitude pattern develops across the western CONUS. Temperatures will warm back into the 70s for Saturday, then 80s for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Mostly MVFR with local IFR ceilings will continue through the afternoon into most of tonight across western and north central Nebraska. Scatttered showers will be possible through this evening. Conditions will improve after 12Z Tuesday morning with skies becoming clear. Surface winds will be north at 10-20 kts through this evening then decreasing after 06Z Tuesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ004-022>024-035-036-056-057-094. Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ005-006-008-025-026-037-058-059-069-070. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Taylor  807 FXUS66 KPQR 182030 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 130 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and benign weather is expected across the region through much of the next week as high pressure builds over the Northeast Pacific, resulting in a warming trend. Weak systems aloft may bring enhanced cloud cover on some days, but rain chances are minimal. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Sunday night...Concerns for hazardous weather remain minimal through the upcoming week. There is high confidence that upper-level ridging and surface high pressure will build over the Northeast Pacific, although uncertainty in the amplitude and position of the upper ridge increases later in the forecast period. Through the end of the workweek, while the ridge axis remains well offshore, upper shortwaves within northwesterly flow aloft may produce increased cloud cover on certain days including Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but chances for rainfall remain 5-10% along the Clatsop and Pacific County coasts and in the Willapa Hills, and lower elsewhere. On clearer nights, areas of fog are most likely to develop within sheltered valleys. As the ridge axis shifts east, temperatures will trend upward through at least Thursday, reaching the 60s on the coast and upper 70s to low 80s along the I-5 corridor. At this time, there is Minor HeatRisk forecast across the region, meaning those who are most sensitive to heat may be affected, however there are 15-25% chances Moderate HeatRisk occurs in some urban areas along I-5 if daytime highs end up slightly hotter, including the Portland/Vancouver metro, Salem, and Albany/Corvallis areas. Later in the forecast period, from Friday through next weekend, uncertainty in the evolution and possible break-down of the upper-level ridge introduces similar uncertainty in forecast temperatures and precipitation. Forecast daytime highs currently trend downward through the holiday weekend as chances increase that ridging deamplifies or is replaced by an upper trough, but there is an increasingly wide range of possible outcomes. The 80%-confidence envelopes (the difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles) in temperature widen from 8-13 degrees on Friday and Saturday to 16-18 degrees on Sunday and Monday along the I-5 corridor. There is greater consensus that the ridge will break down late Sunday into Monday, yielding increasing chances of cooler temperatures as well as the highest chances of rainfall, 25-50%, in over a week. -36 && .AVIATION...High pressure will maintain fair conditions with high level clouds moving overhead through the day. Northwest flow of 5-10 kt through the day with wind gusts along the coast up to 20 kt possible. Winds relax this evening and overnight. Marine stratus pushed back toward the coast this evening, mainly along the northern Oregon and southern Washington coast. Probabilities increase to 60-90% for development between 02-06z Wednesday for KAST and much lower at 20-30% for KONP. Guidance suggests stratus developing along the Columbia River toward the Portland/Vancouver Metro between 10-1z Wednesday. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected through at least 06z Tuesday. High clouds expected to clear out this afternoon. Light northwest winds expected to increase to 8-10 kt by 22z this afternoon. Stratus pushing inland along the Columbia River could reach the metro between 10-16z Tuesday with a 30-60% chance for sub-VFR CIGs, mainly for KTTD and KPDX. -19 && .MARINE...Northerlies are expected to persist through much of the week as the summer-like pattern settles in. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon and evening periods as a surface thermal trough strengthens over the southern Oregon coast. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the inner coastal waters south of Cape Foulweather later this afternoon into this evening for gusts up to 25 kt. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday. Seas around 6 to 8 feet are expected through the week as well. Chances increase on Wednesday and Thursday for more widespread wind gusts for all marine zones. Small Craft Advisories is in place for the Columbia River Bar for early Tuesday morning due to strong ebb currents which will produce conditions hazardous to small craft. Strong ebb currents are possible during the morning hours each day this week. -19/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ253. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  974 FXUS65 KPUB 182033 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 233 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme fire danger continues across our southern plains through early evening, with southwest winds gusting 45 to 50 mph and humidity values in the single digits. - Heightened travel concerns due to 50-60 mph winds over the mountains and southern portions of the area, with blowing dust over the San Luis Valley and southern plains, and blowing snow over the mountains. - Showers continue across the Pikes Peak region with snow levels dropping down to 6500 feet under the heavier snow showers through this evening. Any accumulations will be light, slushy and brief. - Frost and freezes expected for much of the southeast plains tonight, with the coldest readings across El Paso County - Cooler and wetter weather is expected for all areas through mid week with another drying trend for next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Potent upper trough ejecting across CO is bringing a wide range of weather conditions to southern CO, from low clouds, fog, and rain and snow showers with embedded thunder across the mountains and Pikes Peak region, to strong winds and high fire danger across southern sections of the area. The cold front has been stubborn through the morning but winds across southern Baca county have shifted from the south in the past hour and will get gustier through the afternoon as the upper trough ejects to the northeast and the surface low across southern sections of the area ejects eastward. Still looks like gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with humidity levels dropping below 10 percent. This will bring a period of critical to extreme fire weather conditions before the front drops southward to the southern border by 7 PM and humidity levels increase. Current Red Flag Warnings still look on target. Will need to watch closely for blowing dust which could reduce visibility to under a mile at times near plowed fields or areas with loose soil conditions. Across the San Luis Valley, a brief hit of high winds occurred close to 11 AM which prompted the issuance of a High Wind Warning for southern and central portions of the valley. This occurred as the upper jet moves across. Window for strong winds has passed and High Wind Warnings were taken down around 2 PM. Winds will remain gusty to around 40 mph for a few more hours yet. Dust Storm Warnings were downgraded to Blowing Dust Advisories based on conditions in area webcams. Otherwise, north of the cold front along the Arkansas River, temperatures have stayed cooler as clouds have been slow to erode. Best chance of showers for the Pikes Peak region will be this afternoon through early evening and snow levels could locally drop down to 6500 feet under the heavier convective snow bursts. Any accumulations should remain light, melting as it falls due to the warm ground surface. Some ice pellets or graupel could occur under the convective bursts as well but these should be brief. Then stratus will deepen, lower, and spread back southward behind the cold front through the evening. Upslope against the mountains could cause a narrow ribbon of fog and even drizzle along the lower eastern and southern slopes. Concerns then turn towards freezing temperatures and frost conditions across the plains as temperatures behind the front drop into the 30s. Fortunately, we have some clouds and wind to help keep temperatures up slightly, but up against the higher terrain and northern portions of the plains could see temperatures near or a little below freezing with the potential for some frost if some pockets of clearing occur towards morning. Greatest concern is northern El Paso county where aFreeze Warning has been issued. Have gone with frost advisories elsewhere as temperatures will get close to the freezing mark. This is a conservative Frost Advisory, erring on the side of caution given the late season timing of this event. Hopefully not all this area will receive a widespread frost, but protect tender plants if possible. Tuesday will be a quieter day, starting out cloudy in the morning with clearing skies through late morning and afternoon. Easterly upslope flow on the plains will keep higher dew points pinned up against the mountains, with afternoon heating acting on it to generate some showers and thunderstorms over the mountains which will drift off into the adjacent plains. Instability is not all that great and think embedded thunder will be more isolated in coverage. Some overrunning Tuesday night may keep showers going across the southeast mountains and Pikes Peak region as the next upper trough moves into the Great Basin and weak waves eject to the northeast ahead of it. Overall, no fire weather concerns to note as temperatures will be cooler, humidity values higher, and winds lighter. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A cooler and active weather pattern continues through mid week with a series of upper troughs moving across CO. The first one moves across on Wednesday. A little better instability may be present for Wednesday over the mountains, but dew point return is still modest in some models as they increase into the 40s across the plains in the NAM but into the low 50s in the GFS. CIN across the plains should keep it stable with showers and thunderstorms dissipating as they move eastward across the plains, though another round of overrunning may spread some showers across the plains Wednesday night. Thursday could be a more widespread severe weather day for the southeast mountains and plains as southerly return flow advects 50 dew points back into the plains. CAPE could increase to over 1000 J/kg with deep layer shears around 40 kts. We may also have some good forcing as a trough drops in from the northwest in the afternoon. Will have to watch this day closely for severe thunderstorm potential across the plains, but at least the higher humidity values should keep critical fire weather conditions at bay. Friday will be cooler and perhaps more stable behind the front with afternoon showers and thunderstorms confined to the mountains and along the surface front to the south. Warmer and drier weather returns next weekend with at least some isolated thunderstorms possible over and near the mountains both days. -KT && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1124 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 KALS...very windy conditions out of the southwest, with gusts approaching 60 kts and BLDU with restrictions to CIGS and VIS. Winds will shift more westerly by mid afternoon and weaken into the evening. Southerly winds will increase on Tuesday morning. CIGS look to remain around 6 kft through much of the period, once winds decrease and BLDU subsides. KCOS...low CIGS near 1500 ft will prevail into early afternoon. A few showers look to move off the Rampart Range and across El Paso County this afternoon. Strong winds will likely accompany these showers, with gusts approaching 40 kts possible. A frontal boundary will arrive late this afternoon shifting winds northerly with continued strong gusts. CIGS will lower back to near 1500-2000 ft overnight into Tuesday morning as flow returns southeasterly upslope. KPUB...low CIGS near 2000 ft will continue into early afternoon before a cold front arrives by late afternoon. Northerly winds gusting near 40 kts may accompany the frontal boundary. There is a low probability of westerly winds briefly, with strong gusts around20-22Z with clearing skies. Confidence in this is low. Winds will dissipate overnight and switching easterly with low CIGS near 2000 ft expected into Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Critical fire weather conditions will continue into the early evening across Las Animas and Baca counties. Gusts up to 50 mph and critically low humidity values will lead to critical to extreme fire weather conditions. The cold front will push back into the southern CO/NM/OK border areas towards 7 PM which will bring a sharp wind shift from the north with gusts up to 40 mph. But this will also bring an increase in humidity levels. Current Red Flag Warnings continue until 8 PM to account for the wind shift and any slight delay in humidity recovery. It is possible these may be able to be cancelled sooner if the frontal passage and humidity recovery is quicker. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ069>071. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ084. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ085>089-094>096. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ230-233- 237. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...MOZLEY FIRE WEATHER...KT  216 FXUS64 KCRP 182038 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 338 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 336 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Dangerous swimming conditions with a high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning - Marginal Risk of (level 1 of 4) Flash Flooding due excessive rainfall from Tuesday night through Saturday morning with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) Thursday for the northern Coastal Plains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 After several dry days since our last rain event, a wetter pattern will begin tomorrow night and continue through the end of the week. A series of repeating mid-level shortwaves will pass over South Texas through this week as a more potent trough or cutoff mid-level low develops over northern Mexico and moves eastward into Texas. Near climatological max moisture in combination of these disturbances, will promote showers and thunderstorms daily with the potential for heavy rainfall. While things could still change, the most likely scenario will be for 2-3" across the Brush Country and northern Coastal Plains and 1-2" across the the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. High end rainfall totals (10% chance of reaching these values) will be 4-5" across the Brush Country and northern Coastal Plains and 3-4" across the the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Therefore, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Flash Flooding from Tuesday night through Saturday morning with a Slight Risk (level 2 or 4) for the Coastal Plains Thursday. Apart from that, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms Tuesday night with the primary hazards being strong winds and secondary hazard of large hail. Persistent strong onshore flow with swell periods of 7-8 seconds warrants a high risk of rip currents, causing dangerous swimming conditions. These conditions will also lead to another threat for minor coastal flooding early tomorrow morning during high tide. We'll need to keep a close eye on webcams with how much wave runup we get, but confidence is low with the lack of buoy observations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and early evening before MVFR ceilings return around 04-07z. ceilings are expected to improve to VFR once again tomorrow morning around 13z. These stronger winds with gusts to 30 knots are expected to continue through 04-06z relaxing to about 12-14 knots over night. Winds are expected to re- strengthen tomorrow morning around 13-16z with gusts to 25-27 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A fresh breeze (BF 5) is expected to continue through Tuesday morning which will cause a continuation of our current Small Craft Advisory. Winds will relax to a moderate breeze (BF 4) Tuesday morning and continue through the end of the work week. Medium chances (50-60%) for shower and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (60- 80%) Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 No elevated fire weather conditions are expected through this week. Moisture will continue to increase, causing minimum relative humidity values to stay above 40%. Low rain chances through Tuesday, increase to a medium to high (40-80%) Tuesday night into this weekend && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 90 79 89 / 20 10 60 30 Victoria 77 91 75 88 / 10 10 60 50 Laredo 79 99 76 94 / 20 10 60 40 Alice 79 94 77 91 / 20 10 60 30 Rockport 80 90 79 89 / 20 0 60 30 Cotulla 78 97 74 91 / 20 0 60 50 Kingsville 80 92 78 90 / 20 10 60 30 Navy Corpus 81 87 80 87 / 10 10 60 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...JCP/84  356 FXUS66 KOTX 182041 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 141 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily Northeastern WA and North Idaho Tuesday afternoon. - Chilly overnight temperatures will bring an isolated threat of morning frost Tuesday. This could impact sensitive plants or crops. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue Tuesday. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight - Wednesday: The combination of afternoon heating and residual moisture will keep a threat for showers and thunderstorms this evening across Northeastern WA and North. Storm motion to the south and southeast does bring a small threat for a few cells to drift off the higher terrain and into the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane-Cd'A area. The depth of the convection is slowly shrinking at temperatures warm 2-3 Celsius at 500 mb so updrafts are largely growing to -25C versus -35C on Sunday. Ideally, this will result in less lighting strikes across the area. The strongest cells will be capable of brief downpours of rain/small hail and wind gusts around 30 mph. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer Tuesday morning but still cooling into the 30s to 40s. The threat for frost will be more localized. If you experienced temperatures in the low 30s and frost Monday morning, may want to consider taking actions to protect sensitive plants again. Given the complex terrain of our region, many observation platforms are not dipping to freezing given the placement of the sensor above ground but frost has been reported nearby, especially where there are low spots. The current frost forecast has a 20-25% chance for frost in the valleys of NE WA and N ID (down from 40-50% Monday). One change for tonight will be the potential for midlevel clouds moving through NE WA and N ID overnight which would support the idea of warmer temperatures. On Tuesday, temperatures continue to warm aloft for most areas away from far NE WA and N ID. This will equate to less shower activity region-wide and mainly fair cumulus build ups. Upper levels will be slower to warm over far NE WA and N ID. Locations like Ione, Porthill, and Bonners Ferry will maintain a 15-25% chance for showers and t-storms. High pressure begins to amplify along the coast Wednesday. Midlevel flow buckles from northwest to north over the INW. A cooler shortwave will drop down the eastern flank of the ridge and along the Northern Rockies. This will bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms back to the ID/MT border Wednesday afternoon. If the wave is a bit deeper and further west, the threat for convection may need to be expanded as far west as the ID/WA border. Breezy northerly winds will develop Wednesday night with this system with gusts of 20-30 mph for locations like Omak, Ephrata, and Wilbur. Thursday-Monday: There is moderate confidence for the upper-level ridge to build into the region Thursday and linger into Friday delivering a warming and drying trend. Details become a bit more uncertain over the weekend and early next week when additional shortwaves begin swinging into the region from the Gulf of AK. There are many variations with timing and strength of these systems. Any systems will need to be monitored closely for potential showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds, especially if thereis a quick exchange of air masses. Ensemble means are hinting wind gusts around 30 mph right now across the Basin and Spokane Area with a handful of members in the 40-45 mph range. Monday is the windiest day at this time. /sb && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Antecedent boundary layer moisture and surface heating will result in developing cumulus fields 18-20Z. There is 40% chance for cells to develop showers and 10-25% for convection to grow deep enough for lightning. Greatest risk will be over the mountains of northern WA and the Idaho Panhandle though cells drifting south will pose a small risk into the upper Columbia Basin and Spokane-Cd'A area. Given the latest output from the cam models, did introduce prob30 for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE for -shra with a 10-15% chance for -tsra. Any thunderstorms will bring a threat for brief downpours of rain/small hail, lightning, and erratic outflow winds to 30 mph. Pending where rain falls, areas of valley fog will be possible overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a small risk for MVFR cigs mainly around KGEG-KSFF- KCOE-KPUW this morning as cumulus clouds are developing and cloud bases are slowly lifting. Main uncertainty this afternoon will be if thunderstorms survive off the higher terrain into KGEG-KSFF-KCOE as we have seen the last two afternoons. /sb ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 41 68 44 71 43 72 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 41 66 44 68 43 70 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 39 64 42 66 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 43 70 46 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 36 70 40 74 38 75 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 40 65 43 67 41 70 / 20 10 10 10 0 0 Kellogg 39 65 43 67 42 70 / 20 10 0 10 30 0 Moses Lake 41 74 45 78 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 48 73 50 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 43 74 47 77 48 78 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  408 FXUS61 KOKX 182042 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 442 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM Tuesday to 8PM Wednesday. Air Quality Alerts for unhealthy for sensitive groups air quality for high ozone for both rest of today into this evening as well as Tuesday into Tuesday evening for portions of the region. Small craft advisory for ocean waters Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot airmass moving into the forecast region. Airmass getting relatively more humid also heading into midweek. Heat advisory NE NJ and NYC Tuesday late morning through Wednesday early evening. 2) Possible showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. Higher chances of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Marginal severe thunderstorm possibility. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend with chances of showers. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... That back door cold front is now east of the area. Ridging aloft has kept the area dry and warm. Mainly dry conditions continue into Tuesday with strong ridging aloft. Offshore high pressure and increasing low level SW warm air advection will make for much warmer temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as well. The models have shifted a few hours later with the timing of the cold front on Wednesday, thereby allowing for more daytime heating and less clouds. Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM Tuesday to 8PM Wednesday. This is the first high heat index event of the year for NE NJ and NYC. Warmest day Tuesday with SW flow and daytime mixing. Temperatures in the 90s for all of NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and much of interior Southern CT as well as much of Nassau County NY. Mid to upper 90s for high temperatures much NE NJ and NYC Metro for temperatures and heat indices. Dewpoints are mostly in the low 60s Tuesday. Slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. This same distribution exists for high temperatures on Wednesday as well but a few degrees cooler on average. The dewpoints increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday with values mainly in the low to mid 60s. So for Wednesday, temperatures a little less than the previous day but dewpoints a little higher than the previous day. Highs mostly in the lower 90s Wednesday for much of NE NJ and NYC with corresponding heat indices in the mid 90s. Again, slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. .KEY MESSAGE 2... There is some indication within the forecast models showing a pre-frontal trough developing across the interior for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for northern parts of the region. Possibility too for a strong to severe thunderstorm, with quick downburst of wind. This is just marginal risk. CAMs indicate this possibility of convection within their reflectivity fields. The cold front looks to move in first for Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT latter half of Wednesday afternoon and then crosses through the NYC Metro and coastal sections by early evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening. There is potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail. Flooding threat minimal with the westerly flow in the atmosphere and quick steering flow. However, a quick period of heavy rain and possible minor flooding cannot be ruled out with some thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend with quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. In its place, low pressure approaches from the south and west. Model variances on how far north the low reaches. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Northerly flow presents downslope warming first half of the day, allowing for coastal locations to be relatively warmer than inland. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid 60s to near 70 and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly really limiting the daytime warmth with more maritime influence. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A warm front lifts north of the region today. High pressure remains over the western Atlantic with a frontal system over the mid section of the country. T VFR through the TAF period. Southerly winds this afternoon increase to around 10kt with a some locations G15-18kt. Winds diminish tonight to under 10 kt from the S/SW. Winds are expected to increase once again on Tuesday with gusts once again to near 20kt. Gusts may be more occasional at times. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be more occasional this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday: VFR. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt into eve. Isolated thunderstorm potential afternoon into early eve, mainly north of NYC terminals with brief MVFR or lower possible. Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening. S/SW winds 10-15g20-25kt day into eve. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible. NW windshift in the evening. Thursday: Mainly VFR. Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers. Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions through Tuesday morning. SCA on the ocean Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, marginal SCA for non- ocean waters but mostly below SCA criteria. Potential widespread SCA conditions Wednesday into Wednesday night. Mainly below SCA thereafter until holiday weekend when SCA conditions potentially return. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 17: KEWR: 68/2015 KBDR: 60/2025 KNYC: 70/1906 KLGA: 68/1965 KJFK: 63/1965 KISP: 62/2015 May 18: KEWR: 74/2017 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 75/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 65/2017 KISP: 63/1977 May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007- 009>011. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075- 176-178. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ004- 006-103>108. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...BC MARINE...JM  428 FXUS65 KBOI 182042 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 242 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory for the western Magic Valley Tuesday morning. - Lighter winds and drier with a gradual warming trend through Wednesday. - Generally dry with above normal temperatures through the weekend. Potential pattern change early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... The afternoon/evening showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish with sunset, as will the gusty winds. Lighter winds and clear skies overnight allow for possible frost in the western Magic Valley Tuesday morning. There is a spread in forecast low temperatures with a range of 33 to 38 in the Gooding/Jerome/Twin area so coverage could be patchy. Have opted with a Frost Advisory to highlight the potential. Building heights behind the exiting trough will bring a gradual warming trend with high temperatures close to normal by Wednesday. Mountains will see an afternoon cumulus field from daytime instability. Can't rule out a mtn top shower over w-central Idaho mtns (east of McCall- Lowman-Atlanta line) each afternoon, but it would be light with heavier development further north and east. An approaching trough will increase precipitation chances across these areas Wednesday night. Winds settle down Tue/Wed staying below 15 mph for most sites. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Come Thursday, a shortwave embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft will begin to dig into southeastern Idaho. While the better forcing associated with this shortwave will be east of our area, height falls aloft will support isolated showers developing over higher terrain in the West Central and Boise Mountain zones. Following this trough, dry northwest flow will return with higher pressure building in aloft over the Pacific; as a result, a warming trend will set in through the weekend, with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Come Sunday, flow aloft will become more zonal as a Gulf of Alaska low deepens. The exact track of this low is a bit uncertain this far out; however, the grand ensemble shows the indication of troughing moving across our area come early next week (deterministic guidance varies on strength and track). Despite the uncertainty, the signal is there for a pattern change early next week, this will lead to increasing precipitation chances and cooler temperatures (although still leaning above normal) come Monday. With the main jet stream above our area throughout the long-term period, breezy conditions will stick around each afternoon. The windiest conditions of the period will likely come early next week as the low makes it's way into our area. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 1155 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026 VFR. Scattered showers this afternoon, mainly across higher terrain. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and mtn obscuration in showers. Snow levels: 5.5-6.5 kft MSL. Surface winds: W-N 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt this afternoon. Becoming variable 5-10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Showers over the foothills this afternoon. Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt with gusts up 28 kt this afternoon, becoming SW-NW up to 8 kt overnight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for IDZ016. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF  517 FXUS61 KPHI 182044 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 444 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Heat Advisory expanded to most of eastern Pennsylvania and northern to southern New Jersey. Small Craft Advisory issued for the New Jersey Atlantic coastal waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and more humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. 2. A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and more humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast will remain in place through late Tuesday before it starts to flatten on its northwest side during Wednesday. This along with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic will drive a south to southwest flow of early season (anomalous) heat across our area into Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to peak into the 90s for many areas again Tuesday and Wednesday, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. While the surface dew points will likely mix out some during peak heating due to the drier ground and boundary layer (low evapotranspiration), this stretch of early season heat, with record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. For this reason, opted to expand the Heat Advisory to the areas where the heat index criteria starts at 100F (the urban I-95 corridor criteria starts at 96F through June). While it will probably fall a little short for some areas, the potential greater impacts (lack of acclimation) is driving our decision. Where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore did not include the immediate coastal zones in the Heat Advisory. Peak heat indices will be 95 to nearing 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east during Wednesday as a strong cold front starts to arrive. Based on this, portions of the Heat Advisory for areas farther north and west of I-95 only goes through Tuesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will depend on how quickly cloud cover arrives along with showers and some thunderstorms. Either way, we will have a high launching pad for temperatures to start Wednesday and it will still be rather hot. Temperatures at night will be quite warm by mid May standards. Lows will only be in the mid 60s to low 70s, which will challenge daily warmest low temperature records for May 19th. As a side note, isolated convection has developed over the central Applachians this afternoon and this activity will move to the north and northeast into this evening. Given the presence of the ridge farther east, the chance for any of this to make it to parts of our far western zones this evening is very low at the current time and therefore went with a dry forecast. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. As mentioned above, a cold front will approach the area Wednesday and bring an end to the stretch of above normal temperatures by Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front as it passes through the region. Recent guidance trends continue to show the front moving through during the second half of Wednesday into Wednesday night. Given this timing, there is the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. There remains uncertainty in the more specific details and some timing variations remain. Regarding the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, the cold front will be moving into an air mass that will feature plenty of instability. The better shear and forcing look to be to our north, but bulk shear values will be supportive of some storm organization along with some supportive lapse rates. All of this said, the potential is there for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. The primary concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. General rainfall accumulation from this frontal passage looks around 0.25" or less. However, given this convection and PWAT values reaching to 1.5-2.0", localized higher amounts are certainly possible with any heavier pockets of rain. As the front sinks south into Thursday morning, it then looks to linger near or just south of the area through the remainder of the day Thursday. This will lead to the potential for more rain showers, particularly for our southeastern zones. An unsettled pattern looks to continue to take shape for Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of this afternoon...VFR. South to southwest winds around 10 knots with some local gusts 15-20 knots at times (southeast winds especially at KILG, KMIV and KACY. Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR. South to southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. High confidence. Tuesday...VFR. Southwesterly winds 5-8 knots increasing to 10-15 knots, with some afternoon gusts up to 20 knots. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday...Sub-VFR with rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Rain showers may continue into Thursday. Friday through Saturday...Sub-VFR with rain showers moving through. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory issued for the New Jersey Atlantic coastal waters Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. Southerly flow will increase tonight and especially during Tuesday. A hot air mass will be moving over the chilly water and this vertical mixing will be reduced, however given the strength of the flow there should be a period of wind gusts to around 25 knots and seas building to about 5 feet. It looks to be more marginal for the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters and therefore held off on issuing an advisory. For Delaware Bay, the conditions should continue to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Tuesday night. Outlook... Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Seas lessen by Wednesday morning but elevated winds out of the southwest remain through the day Wednesday with gusts near 20-25 kt. Rain showers move in Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. There is also the potential for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night. Thursday...Conditions expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria but showers may linger. Friday through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected as seas reach 4-6 feet. There is the chance for some rain showers. Rip Currents... On Tuesday, south to southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 8 seconds. As a result there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches. Depending on ther exact direction of the winds, there is the potential for a HIGH risk for rip currents at the Jersey Shore. On Wednesday, south to southwest winds will be a bit lighter, and winds look to be more paralel to the shores. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatning rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW ris for Delaware Beaches. Will continue to note that while surface temperatures inland will be in the mid to upper 90s Tuesday and inthe low to mid 90s on Wednesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Near record breaking temperatures are forecast from today through Wednesday. High temperatures Tuesday and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthly all time records for May. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 97/May 30 & 31, 1991 Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, & May 31, 1991 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 18 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 96/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 93/1987 AC Marina (55N) 90/1987 Georgetown (GED) 91/1974 Mount Pocono (MPO) 87/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1986 Wilmington (ILG) 94/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 18 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 70/2017 AC Marina (55N) 66/2017 Georgetown (GED) 72/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/2017 Philadelphia (PHL) 72/2017 Reading (RDG) 67/1900, 1943, & 2017 Trenton (TTN) 71/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 72/2017 Record High Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 97/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1962 AC Marina (55N) 92/1998 Georgetown (GED) 96/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 73/2017 AC Marina (55N) 68/1998 Georgetown (GED) 73/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 Philadelphia (PHL) 74/1877 Reading (RDG) 68/1962 Trenton (TTN) 70/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2017 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996 AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ070-071-102-104- 106. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ060>062-101-103- 105. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ060>062- 070-071-101>106. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012-013-015- 017>020-027. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001- 007>010-012-015-017>019. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ007>010. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ012>021-026-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for ANZ450>453. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gorse/Guzzo AVIATION...Gorse/Guzzo MARINE...Gorse/Guzzo/MPS  920 FXUS63 KJKL 182050 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 450 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through Tuesday afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast late Tuesday into Tuesday night, then persist through next weekend. - The switch to a wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings and produces a highly-beneficial, widespread wetting rainfall. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 435 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 Late this afternoon an upper level ridge extended from the Southern Appalachians across the Carolinas to near Bermuda and another upper ridge was centered in the Gulf. Meanwhile an upper trough extended from Central Canada across Alberta and Saskatchewan to the Four Corners vicinity to the Southwest Conus. A couple of shortwaves were moving around the ridging and across sections of the mid MS Valley and the Lower OH Valley while a more substantial shortwave was working across sections of the Central Plains. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extended from the Atlantic into parts of the Southeast and Southern Appalachians while a wavy frontal zone extended from the Northeast across sections of Quebec and Ontario to the northern and western Great Lakes to the Central Plains to Southwest Conus. Cumulus have developed during the heat of the day and temperatures are mild averaging between 10 and 15 degrees above normal highs for this time of year. Tonight and Tuesday, upper level ridging is expected to remain in place from near or north of Bermuda across the Southeast and into the Gulf. At the same time, a shortwave trough is expected to move across sections of the Central an Northern Plains and into the western Great Lakes through Tuesday morning and then to the Central Great Lakes through the remainder of the day. A general trend of rising 500 mb heights is expected through tonight with near neutral tendencies on Tuesday morning and then some height rises for the afternoon to early evening. Further 500 mb height falls are anticipated to end the period as the upstream shortwave moves to the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley. At the surface, the high pressure ridge will build into the Southern Plains tonight, before shifting to the south and southeast to end the period. As this occurs a sfc low tracks from the Plains across the Great Lakes and eventually to Ontario and Quebec while the trailing cold front will move into the Northeast and sag across sections of the OH Valley and into eastern KY. Dry weather should prevail through at least midday on Tuesday with the pattern favoring a modest ridge/valley split and temperatures in the coldest locations could fall a couple of degrees below the current forecast based on trends from last night and some mixed dewpoints near the 60 degree mark versus the lower 60s. Valley fog along the larger creeks, rivers, and lakes should form around or near midnight and then dissipate toward 9 AM EDT. With height falls on Tuesday afternoon, some convection cannot be completely ruled out during peak heating in the northwest half of the CWA and it is possible a larger areal extent of slight chance pops may ultimately be needed. Any stronger storm could produce gusty winds as there are some stronger gusts in the 18Z HRRR with some of the activity near peak heating. Better chances arrive later Tuesday evening and especially Tuesday night as the height falls continue and the front nears eastern KY. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 343 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 If the long term period could be summarized with just one word, it would be wet. The period will open with broad ridging over the southeastern US and troughing over the HudsonBay. This will leave Kentucky in a regime of generally southwesterly flow aloft at the onset of the long term period. At the surface, a cold front will extend through the CONUS from a surface low centered over Quebec and push into eastern Kentucky on Wednesday, although the exact timing of the frontal passage remains dependent the upstream evolution of this system. The environment ahead of the front will be moist (owing to prefrontal southwesterly winds), but instability will be dependent on whether the timing of the frontal passage can align with maximal daytime heating. Accordingly, LREF guidance still shows a wide range of MUCAPE values, but the most likely outcome at this time is that instability should be sufficient for a few thunderstorms. Given that wind shear is expected to be meager, widespread organized severe weather appears unlikely. A few machine learning sources have introduced very low-end probabilities for gusty winds Wednesday afternoon, but this threat remaining highly conditional on favorable frontal timing, and thus confidence remains very low in this outcome. Regardless of storm strength, this system will bring much-needed rain to eastern Kentucky, which currently remains in drought (ranging from D1 conditions in our eastern forecast area to D2 and a pocket of D3 conditions in the western portion of forecast area). With broad ridging over the southeastern CONUS, the aforementioned cold front will struggle to push through into the Atlantic coast states and likely stall over the periphery of the ridge going into Thursday (TN area) before lifting into Kentucky again as a warm front on Friday. This pattern will bring multiple rounds of rain to the forecast area. As such, WPC has introduced multiple Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for the forecast area; one for our entire area on Wednesday, another for the Lake Cumberland area on Thursday, and a third for our entire forecast area again on Friday. QPF does not look overly impressive on any given day; LREF guidance shows that the chance of exceeding 0.5 of rain on any given day is low to moderate (maxing out at around 50% on Wednesday). However, this does not account for enhanced rain rates in any thunderstorms that do develop. If storms track over the same area for multiple days in a row, isolated instances of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. This is especially true closer to the KY/TN border, which will feel the greatest impacts of the stalling front. However, these details will need to be refined in the short term when convective rain rates can be better accounted for. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period. Following the frontal passage, CAA via postfrontal winds will keep maxTs generally below normal, with a defined thermal gradient over our forecast area as the front stalls. Currently, the NBM is outputting highs in the 80s for the southern portion of our forecast area; however, this appears to be an outlier compared to other guidance, so maxTs were bumped down a few degrees on Thursday afternoon to better account for the frontal passage. After the front lifts northward again, flow will become more southerly, and temperatures will be warmer than on Thursday. The NBMs highs in the upper 70s and low 80s may be slightly overdone given that rain is likely going into Friday afternoon (80-90% chance), but highs do represent an expected warming trend as the warm front lifts northward. Unfortunately (for outdoor activities) or fortunately (for drought relief), this weekend also looks to be quite wet even as the original front exits our area. A slow- moving upper level trough over the central CONUS, in addition to potential embedded impulses, will allow for rain chances every day through the weekend and into the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. The one caveat will be valley fog between 04Z and 13Z with some MVFR and IFR reductions that is not expected to affect the TAF sites. Otherwise, diurnal mixing will lead to continued cumulus during the first few hours of the period in the 4.5 to 6kft agl range. South to southwest winds will average 6 to 12KT with gusts to near 20KT. However, the winds should slacken and gusts subside toward 00Z and the cumulus should also dissipate. Light and variable winds will prevail overnight, before becoming south to southwest at 5 to 12KT with some gusts up to 20KT. By the end of the period some cumulus may again develop between 4 and 6kft agl. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JMW/MARCUS AVIATION...JP  886 FXUS64 KHGX 182050 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 350 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, breezy, and muggy conditions will continue for the next several days. - Multiple rounds of showers/storms expected beginning late Tuesday through the end of the work week. A few storms could be strong to severe and multiple rounds of rainfall could lead to minor/street flooding. - Elevated winds, seas, and rip current risk in the bay/Gulf waters and beaches through at least midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 BLUF: The weather pattern begins to change this week with multiple chances for rain and storms continuing well into the Memorial Day weekend. Localized heavy rain and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible. Remain weather aware this week for the latest forecast updates and make sure you have multiple ways to receive alerts. A warm and muggy start to the workweek with mostly cloudy skies and breezy southerly winds. A few showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon despite a strong 700:850 mb capping inversion. Strong moisture transport along with a decent LLJ will be enough to support this activity this afternoon and evening. A warm and muggy night is anticipated with lows in the upper 70s to near 80s. A deep longwave trough deepening over the Rockies will continue to eject multiple impulses of energy along the southwest flow aloft. This parade of disturbances will move through Southeast Texas while at the surface, a frontal boundary will attempt to sag southward into north-central TX before stalling somewhere between the Dallas/Fort Worth area and the Brazos Valley region through the end of the week. Total rainfall amounts will strongly depend on where this boundary stalls. The first round of showers and thunderstorms (first round of a series of mesoscale convective systems (MCS's)) is forecast to arrive to Southeast TX on Tuesday. Given the nature of these shortwaves, it is difficult to pin-point specific timing. Latest hi-res guidance suggests scattered activity in the afternoon, bringing the first MCS Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Forecast rainfall amounts during this time frame is expected to be between 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Scattered showers and storms will continue on Wednesday before the next MCS's arrives early Thursday and additional systems persists into the weekend. With PWAT values near/at the climatological max for this time of year, combined with enough forcing and a deep warm cloud layer, rounds of moderate heavy rainfall will be possible. As noted in the previous discussion, earlier rainfall this week will serve to prime the soil. This saturated grounds will lead to a rapid transition to runoff, especially in areas experiencing repeated rounds of rain. Under this type of scenario, rainfall rates of 3 to 4+ in/hr are possible in the heaviest downpours. Overall, 3 to 6 inches of rain is forecast Thursday through Sunday, with localized higher amounts possible. Hazards: Severe Weather: Thunderstorms could become strong to severe with the first round of storms Tuesday into Wednesday. There is a Slight risk of severe weather mainly for our northwestern counties (Brazos Valley). The main severe weather risk is damaging winds. Hail up to a quarter sized will also be possible. Heavy Rainfall: A Marginal risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) is expected most of the week. A slight risk (level 2 of 4) is forecast for Thursday for portions of the Brazos Valley area. We will continue to monitor trends as these systems evolve in the coming days. A Flood Watch may need to be considered later this week. Stay tuned to the forecast not only through the week but also through the holiday weekend as this unsettled pattern looks to remain through early next week. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 543 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Widespread MVFR cigs should generally trend VFR this morning. Coastal areas may struggle break out of MVFR cigs, but perhaps a brief period of VFR could occur this afternoon like yesterday. Winds will continue to be gusty and out of the southeast. Sustained winds are expected to average in the 15-20 knot range, with gusts over 25 knots expected in some areas. Cigs should trend back to MVFR by evening and overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Moderate to strong onshore winds and building seas (5 to 8 ft) will continue through Tuesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through mid Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will gradually weaken/subside by Tuesday afternoon, though gusts between 15 to 10 knots will continue through the week. Several disturbances will move across the bays and Gulf waters throughout the week, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be locally moderate to heavy. Some storms could become strong Tuesday night into Wednesday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. A high rip current risk continues along all Gulf-facing beaches. Given the persistent onshore flow, this risk will likely continue through the end of the week. JM && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Anticipating multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall Tuesday through at least Saturday. These rounds are expected to mostly be in the form of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's). The exact timing of these storms can be a bit tricky as mesoscale factors play a key role (hence the name), but we anticipate the first round to come late Tuesday. With PW values exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates will likely exceed 3-4"/hr in the heaviest downpours. While these lines of storms are typically progressive, the rainfall received early in the week is expected to prime the soils for rounds later in the week. Saturated soils leads to a quicker transition to runoff which brings an increased risk of flooding. We continue to anticipate widespread rainfall totals of 5-7" with isolated higher amounts. The highest rainfall totals are still expected to occur north of I-10. This rainfall will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. Action to minor stage flooding is the most likely outcome, but cannot entirely rule out moderate to isolated major stage flooding depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Landry-Guyton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 88 73 83 / 20 30 70 90 Houston (IAH) 78 88 76 86 / 20 20 60 80 Galveston (GLS) 79 86 79 86 / 10 20 50 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Self MARINE...JM  043 FXUS65 KFGZ 182054 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 154 PM MST Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler and breezy conditions remain today behind a cold front. Gradually warmer and less windy conditions return for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Gusty southwest winds continue over the eastern half of our CWA this afternoon, the Wind Advisory for Apache County has been extended through the end of the day. Much drier and stable air has moved into the western zones and this will move east across the CWA through the day and into Tuesday. The band of shallow moisture from earlier this morning is slowly mixing out and shower chances have essentially reached zero. The remainder of the week will feature a slow and steady rise in temperatures, dry conditions and typical southwesterly winds each afternoon. A weak trough does persist over the area through at least Friday, so some of those afternoon gusts may have a little extra speed at times, but nothing impactful. By next weekend, ridging forms over the area and we should expect temperatures to rise a bit above normal as a result. However, it still looks very dry. && .AVIATION...Monday 18/18Z through Tuesday 19/18Z...VFR conditions. Winds W/SW 10-20 kts with gusts to 30-35 kts through 03Z, then becoming N/NE 5-10 kts. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 19/18Z through Thursday 21/18Z...VFR conditions with W/SW winds 5-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts each day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry and cool conditions. Winds west through southwest 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph each day, strongest in eastern AZ. Minimum afternoon RH is 10-20% on Tuesday, falling to 10-15% on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday....Dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures. Winds west through southwest 5-15 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ011-014-017. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  130 FXUS63 KGLD 182055 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 255 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light rain showers through early evening. - Frost possible Tuesday morning west of Highway 25 as temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s. - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week, perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Low clouds, drizzle and light rain showers covering much of the area this morning will slowly erode on the southern edge through this afternoon, with the latest HRRR showing clearing as far north as Interstate 70 by 22z. Afterwards, the clouds will push south again and they will persist through much if not the entire night. Deepening low pressure in southwest Kansas will result in northwesterly winds gusting to 30-40 mph generally south of Interstate 70 between 00-06z, then gradually decreasing overnight. Chance for any light showers will end with the wind shift. Due to the persistent clouds and wind, temperatures will likely only drop into the low to mid 30s for lows, so issued a Frost Advisory to account for that. Clouds will finally dissipate Tuesday morning leaving a mostly sunny and milder day with highs mainly in the 60s. Next shortwave trough will come out of Colorado Tuesday night, and combined with surface winds turning to east and southeast will result in scattered light rain showers. Overnight precipitation amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch. The showers will continue to increase in coverage Wednesday morning as additional shortwave energy moves out of Colorado in the persistent southwest flow aloft. Weak instability in the afternoon is limited to the immediate vicinity of the Front Range and not expecting any thunder here. QPF remains light through the day on Wednesday, but there is a modest increase Wednesday night, with SREF/NBM means showing generally up to a quarter of an inch, but some deterministic output suggesting locally up to a half inch or more. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with the clouds and precipitation, coolest in Colorado. Thursday will see a stronger disturbance move out of the northern Rockies into western Colorado by the afternoon, then moving across the area Thursday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once again. Instability will be limited by cloud cover, and models showing only weak SBCAPE of around 500 j/kg in the afternoon, mainly in Colorado. Deep layer shear will increase to 30-50 kts by 00z and may compensate somewhat for the weak instability in Colorado, where a marginally severe storm may be possible through the early evening before loss of heating. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Thursday night as the upper wave makes its way across the area. Additional rainfall amounts Thursday night are generally between 0.25" - 0.50", though locally higher amounts over 1" are possible. Temperatures on Thursday could remain in the 50s, especially north of Interstate 70, where clouds persist through the day, with perhaps 60s further south or west with limited clearing. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Friday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough west of the Rocky Mountains. There is also a surface low forecast to set up somewhere in southwest Kansas. Ensembles do not fully align on the placement of this surface low. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to low 70s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue throughout the day as embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are 30-60% increasing from southwest to northeast. The environment is forecast to be moderately unstable with CAPE values generally between 500-1000 J/kg for the region. However, lingering cloud cover will likely keep the environment capped, reducing the risk for severe weather. If thunderstorms are able to form, small hail could occur with stronger storms. Skies will clear out Saturday and begin a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the southeast county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1112 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 IFR will continue through most of the TAF period at both KGLD and KMCK due to low ceilings and occasional showers/drizzle. Surface winds will shift to northerly late this afternoon with gusts up to 35 kts through early evening, then gradually diminishing the rest of the night. Not expecting a return to VFR until Tuesday morning when ceilings will lift. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041- 042. CO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ090>092. NE...Frost Advisory from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Tuesday for NEZ079-080. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...024  240 FXUS65 KPSR 182057 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 157 PM MST Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - An overall broad scale troughing pattern will persist over the western U.S., resulting in temperatures remaining right around seasonal norms through the rest of this week. - Dry conditions, with no threat of rain, and seasonal afternoon breezes are expected through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Latest GOES W infrared and visible satellite imagery indicates a broad trough of low pressure encompassing the western half of the U.S. with multiple embedded shortwaves rotating around the trough axis. The robust shortwave which was responsible for gusty winds, blowing dust, and critical fire weather in our region yesterday has since lifted into the S Rockies and is now bringing a round of severe weather to the Central Plains. As the trough axis passes over the Desert Southwest this afternoon, negative 500 mb height anomalies will continue to overspread the area, resulting in a mild afternoon across the lower deserts. Highs this afternoon are forecast to top out in the mid 80s across the lower deserts, with only 10-20% chances of reaching 90F in the main population centers including Phoenix and Yuma. Dry air will continue to filter into the region from the NW and cause sfc dewpoints to crash into the 20s and 30s across AZ and even into the single digits in southeast CA. This intrusion of dry air will result in cool overnight temperatures with lows falling into the mid 50s to low 60s across the lower deserts. On Tuesday, a follow-on shortwave trough will dive through the Great Basin region, but will be much weaker than the one we experienced on Sunday. This shortwave will again result in enhanced breeziness along the Lower Colorado River valley where northerly gusts as high as 20-30 mph will develop early morning through midday. Increasing SW flow aloft over AZ will also result in breezy conditions, mainly over the higher terrain of northern and eastern AZ. Elsewhere across the lower deserts wind speeds will be much lighter, generally below 15 mph. Due to the positioning of the trough centered over the Great Basin, 500 mb hghts will not change much and thus high temperatures Tuesday afternoon will only warm by a few degrees into the mid 80s to lower 90s which is still below normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through the rest of the week, global ensembles depict a lasting weak longwave trough pattern across the Desert South, with neutral height anomalies and no significant shortwaves rolling through the region. This will translate to rather seasonal weather conditions, but with a slow day-to-day warming trend. High temperatures are forecast to be near normal through the end of the work week - highs in the middle to upper 90s. Meanwhile morning lows are expected to be near to slightly below normal, largely due to dry air/low humidity and limited cloud cover. It is not until the weekend when odds of high temperatures reaching the 100 degree mark spikes back up to around 30-60%, as the longwave trough across the Desert Southwest breaks down. Conditions will remain dry through this weekend, with no threat of rain, and seasonal wind patterns are expected, with light winds through the overnight and morning hours and afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1710Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF period. Westerly winds will prevail through this evening with some occasional afternoon gusts into the upper teens. Winds will resume their more typical diurnal pattern tonight through Tuesday with easterly winds expected during the overnight and early morning hours followed by a westerly shift by the late morning/early afternoon. A FEW-SCT clouds between 6-8 kft will prevail into early this afternoon before a FEW high cloud decks move in during the late afternoon followed by clear skies during the late evening/overnight. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies can be expected throughout the TAF period. Northerly winds will prevail through this afternoon before backing more out of the west to northwest this evening. Wind gusts upwards of 20-25 kts will continue across KBLH through this afternoon before gusts subside early this evening. At KIPL, winds will generally remain aob 10 kts throughout the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Seasonal temperatures with dry conditions will persist through the end of this week. Daily afternoon humidity values will bottom out around 5-15% each day with poor to fair overnight recoveries at 25-50%. After today seasonal wind patterns are expected through the rest of the week, with afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph and the only exception being another brief enhanced northerly wind down the Colorado River on Tuesday morning. There is no rain in the forecast through this weekend. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Salerno LONG TERM...Benedict AVIATION...Lojero FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Salerno