707 FXUS64 KSJT 190400 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1100 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The main concern in the short term this afternoon through tomorrow will be the potential for severe storms. For today, the main area of concern will be along our western CWA border, generally north of Sterling City. We have plenty of moisture in place with dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 degrees. As warming takes place today, SB CAPEs in excess of 4000 J/kg are possible this afternoon, as a dryline approaches from the west. There is shortwave energy embedded in southwest flow aloft that could aid in initiation of convection. Deep layer shear is not overly impressive, but with the amount of instability available, that would likely be overcome by any storms that can develop to produce severe weather with the primary concerns being large hail and severe wind gusts. The main problem with this afternoon is that most high resolution models maintain enough convective inhibition through this evening to prevent convection from developing. However, considering the amount of instability available, if storms do develop, they should quickly strengthen to severe levels, so will have at least a low (20%) chance for thunderstorms north of I-20 in the western Big Country. For Tuesday, a cold front will move into the area from the north shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. As this front moves south during the morning hours, heating along and south of the front will allow for strong destabilization, with SB CAPE values again approaching 4000 J/kg. The front, along with an approaching shortwave, is expected to provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms by late morning or early afternoon in our area. Deep layer shear values of 20 to 40 knots, combined with the strong instability will any storms that develop to become severe, with the main hazards being large to very hail and damaging winds. And with the frontal boundary available, tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out. Highs south of the front will be able to warm into the lower 90s, while north of Interstate 20, highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By the time Wednesday night rolls around, another low pressure trough strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and continues moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday night. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding through Wednesday night. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this trough moves east for the later half of the work Week. A couple of embedded disturbances within the flow are also being indicated as well, which offers support for multiple rounds of rain. In the meantime, high rain chances (70%) are in place for Thursday. Additional rounds of thunderstorms remain a possibility through at least Friday. We will have to monitor closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential through the end of this week. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds continue through the evening hours at all sites. CIGs below 3000ft settle in from south to north late this evening into the overnight hours. BR may develop and lower VIS below 3SM overnight into the morning hours across JCT, BBD, and SOA sites. Opted to not include this in the TAF due to low confidence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 88 62 77 / 10 80 40 30 San Angelo 72 92 63 79 / 0 80 60 50 Junction 73 91 65 83 / 0 50 80 60 Brownwood 72 89 64 80 / 0 80 60 40 Sweetwater 71 87 61 77 / 10 60 40 40 Ozona 71 90 64 81 / 0 40 60 50 Brady 72 89 64 79 / 0 70 80 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...99  042 FXUS62 KJAX 190405 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1205 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today - Locally Dense Fog Across Southeast GA Early on Tues Morning - Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms at Inland Locations this week - Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Area- Wide this weekend - Historic Drought Conditions Continue Across Much of Our Region && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches - Locally Dense Fog inland areas this morning and again late Tonight Surface high pressure ridge axis will remain stationed just north of the region with an easterly steering flow through the period. Drier air mass for mid-May time frame with PWATs less than 1.5 inches will only support widely scattered showers and isolated storms at times over the Atlantic Coastal waters and near the coast at night then moving inland across Northeast Florida and the I-75 corridor during the afternoon hours as the breezy East Coast sea breeze pushes inland with sustained winds around 15 mph with frequent gusts to 20- 25 mph at times. Max temps will remain slightly above normal with highs in the lower 90s inland, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast. Boundary layer cooling over inland areas will support low temps in the 60s and locally dense fog during the late night/early morning hours, but likely not significant enough to become widespread at this time. Onshore flow will keep Atlantic Coastal Min temps in the lower/middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Daily thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor. - Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely into midweek. High pressure remains over the western Atlantic as onshore flow persist through midweek. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms continue to be focused over inland locations, particularly over NE FL on Wednesday. By Thursday, chances of precipitation lessen a bit, but will still have isolated activity as the sea breeze moves inland during the afternoon hours. The persistent east- southeast flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up range from 15 mph to 20 mph each afternoon. Warm temperatures continue through midweek as daytime highs each afternoon will be in the lower 90s over inland locations prior to the onset of any showers or storms, while coastal locations will have highs in the mid 80s. During the overnight hours Lows will be in the 70s at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... - Warm temperatures continue through the weekend - Increasing chances of showers and storms into and through the upcoming holiday weekend into next week. A frontal boundary pushing towards the SE US is expected to slow and stall north of the local area, while high pressure over the western Atlantic begins to shift east. With less influence from the high pressure, the onshore flow will become more southeasterly-southerly on Friday and through the weekend. This will allow for the inland push of both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze each afternoon. PWATs will trend towards the 1.5" to 1.75" range, possibly as high as 2" for some locations over SE GA by Sunday, which could lead to locally heavy downpours for any storms that develop. Chances of showers currently is forecast in the 40% to 50% with wider coverage of showers and storms as the sea breezes push inland and meet towards central locations of the area. The warm temperatures will continue through the weekend as highs will rise to lower to mid 90s across inland locations outside of convective activity, while the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Overnight Lows will be in the 70s area-wide. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Onshore flow will create the potential for MVFR restrictions in stratus near the coast early this morning. Further inland, fog formation will lead to potential IFR/MVFR restrictions at VQQ and GNV towards sunrise (08-12Z) For Tuesday, conditions will trend to VFR during the mid to late morning hours, and continue through the afternoon. There is a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms inland Tuesday, which could affect GNV. At this point it is too early to place restrictions in GNV TAF for what is expected to be only isolated convection. East to Southeast winds expected to increase once again to 10-14G15- 21 knots during the afternoon hours as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland past the terminals, then fades after sunset Tuesday evening. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure centered to Bermuda will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states through the end of the week. Prevailing east to southeasterly winds will continue across our local waters during the next several days. A frontal boundary will briefly stall over the southeastern states late this week. Caution conditions will again be possible for the near shore waters from Friday through early next week as Atlantic high pressure becomes reinforced near Bermuda. Rip Currents: Persistent east to southeast winds and surf of 2-4 ft will keep a high risk of rip currents in place Today and at least a moderate risk at area beaches on Wednesday and Thursday, with high risks again possible from Friday through the upcoming Holiday weekend, as late afternoon and evening easterly wind surges potentially return. && .FIRE WEATHER... `...PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEK... The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon through the week. Easterly to southeasterly winds persists through the week, allowing for moisture to continue to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of particular concern this week. With the onshore flow from the Atlantic, convective activity will be possible each afternoon to evening as the sea breeze pushes inland. By the weekend, increase chances and coverage of showers and storms is expected. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms through the week. each day Tuesday onward. Patchy fog possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for inland locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 63 90 66 / 20 0 10 0 SSI 82 71 84 74 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 88 67 89 69 / 10 0 10 0 SGJ 86 71 87 72 / 20 10 10 0 GNV 92 67 92 69 / 30 0 30 0 OCF 93 67 91 70 / 40 10 30 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None. && $$  165 FXUS64 KBRO 190408 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1108 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1106 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Key Messages: * Day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected through next weekend and possibly beyond amid a major shift in the weather pattern. * Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible through next weekend. * Hot and humid conditions will take place once again on Tuesday; maximum heat indices between 105-111F degrees will result in widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk. * A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect till 9 AM CDT Tuesday; a High Risk for Rip Currents is also in effect through at least Tuesday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1106 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Hot temperatures featuring Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk through Tuesday (possibly into Wednesday), and an increasingly unsettled weather pattern punctuating a significant pattern change from dry to wet remains to be the two main weather headlines through the forecast period. ...ACTIVE/WET WEATHER DEVELOPS THIS WEEK; MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE... Global computer and AI/ML models/ensembles continue to advertise a significant pattern change from dry to wet beginning this week. A split-flow 500 mb pattern featuring what will become an increasingly active and persistent southwest flow aloft sub-tropical jet or southern branch jet stream is in place. This will serve as a conduit for multiple impulses/perturbations tracking over the region over the next several days. Later in the week through next weekend, there are signs that mid-upper troughing along with multiple impulses/perturbations will undercut high pressure/ridging aloft. Closer to the sfc, a frontal boundary will sag southward across the U.S. before stalling and meandering to our north across the southern Plains. A better than normal jet structure will be in place through this week. Additionally, southerly flow near the sfc will yield a pool of deep tropical moisture helping to increase the atmospheric water content over the region through the week ahead. This is justified with sample maximum precipitable water (PWAT) values between 1.80-2.50 inches, some 1-3 STDEVs above normal and above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology for mid to late May. Furthermore, high instability values will be present through this week with steep mid level lapse rates between 6.5-8.0 C/km, SBCAPE values between 2,000-4,000 J/kg, MLCAPE values between 1,000- 2,000 J/kg, a moderately to very unstable atmosphere with Showalter values ranging between -2 and -6. All in all, the combination of a favorable mid-upper level 500 mb steering pattern, favorable jet stream dynamics, high atmospheric moisture content, and high instability will support a noticeable change to a wetter/active weather pattern this week and possibly beyond. This includes incessant day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms through this week, and maybe through the remainder of May. The best chances for rain this week will be later in the week into next weekend. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible given the atmospheric and forcing ingredients highlighted above. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to have the northwestern half of our area under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. This includes all of Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties, and most of Brooks and Starr Counties in it's latest SWODY2. Given the high atmospheric moisture content available, heavy rainfall and instancesof flooding is possible through the week, especially later in the week. This is especially true for slow moving thunderstorms that repeatedly track over the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues to have the entire forecast area or all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall in it's Day 4 (Thursday) and Day 5 (Friday) ERO. Through tonight, a thundershower or two is possible. Latest radar scans reveal a blossoming thunderstorm moving northeast off the slopes of the Sierra Madre with batches of showers further to the north and west. Will have to monitor trends through tonight. For now, we have low (20%) chance PoPs across much of the area. Should the thunderstorm to our southwest off the Sierra madre hold together, we may need to bump PoPs later tonight. For Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, several hi-res CAM guidances continue to advertise a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or MCS originating from central Texas and advancing southward through Deep South Texas late Tuesday into Wednesday between midnight and 9 AM Wednesday morning. Currently, we have low-medium (20-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This may need bumping up depending on things evolve. Again the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday, currently favoring Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and Brooks Counties. Wednesday night through the early parts of next week, additional precipitation chances exists. During this timeframe, we could see another one or two squall lines or MCSs with a heavy rainfall threat move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Wednesday night-Thursday night, we have 30-70% chances for showers and thunderstorms over the region. Friday night through Saturday night, we have widespread categorical chances ranging between 50-75%. Sunday through Monday, there's a 40-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region. Finally, Monday night through Tuesday night, there will be low chances ranging between 20-30%. Through Saturday, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) or rainfall amounts are expected to range between 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The rain to come will certainly prove to be beneficial, helping to further improve the D1 (Moderate) to D2 (Severe) Drought status across the region. ...ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK... The other weather headline through Tuesday will be the heat! Global forecast models/ensembles continue to depict a sharp 588-591 dam sub- tropical heat ridge over the region. This feature will result in another day of hotter than normal temperatures on Tuesday, and maybe even extending into Wednesday. Similar to today, forecast high temperatures for Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 90s to lower 100s with the hottest temps west of IH-69C/US-281. Dewpoints in the mid 70s will result in max heat indices or apparent temperature values climbing to between 105-111F degrees on Tuesday. These values will once again yield Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk. Cloud over will be a factor in these temperatures being realized. By Wednesday, the aforementioned heat ridge relaxes which should result in a slightly cooler day. Shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday as well as cloud cover could also play a role in the slightly lower temperatures from Monday and Tuesday. Nonetheless, it will be another warmer than normal day with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. With heat indices ranging between 100-108F degrees, Heat Risk scores will be mainly fall in the Moderate (Level 2 of 4) category over the region on Wednesday. Thursday through next Tuesday, high temperatures will range between the upper 80s to lower 90s. This largely will be attributed to the shower and thunderstorm chances during this timeframe. Tonight through Tuesday night, overnight lows are progged to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wednesday night through next Sunday night, overnight lows are expected to be mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Through 00z Wednesday....VFR-MVFR conditions will prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. VFR conditions will be more prevalent during the afternoon-evening hours with MVFR conditions more prevalent during the night-morning hours. Breezy southeast winds will continue through the forecast period with speeds between 10-17 knots and gusts between 20-25 knots or so. && .MARINE... Issued at 1106 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect till 9 AM CDT Tuesday due to residual elevated wave heights. Outside of the threat for showers and thunderstorms, Tuesday through Wednesday, adverse (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions are likely. Again, outside of the threat for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through next Monday, marine conditions are expected to improve with moderate seas and low to moderate winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 94 81 92 / 10 10 20 0 HARLINGEN 79 95 79 93 / 10 0 20 0 MCALLEN 81 97 80 94 / 20 10 30 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 98 78 94 / 20 10 40 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 86 81 85 / 10 10 20 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 92 81 90 / 10 0 20 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...23-Evbuoma  833 FXUS65 KSLC 190419 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1019 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freeze conditions will impact many Utah valleys Tuesday morning across central and southwest Utah and portions of northern Utah. More localized freeze conditions will continue for Wednesday morning. - Temperatures will gradually warm for the remainder of the week, reaching values up to 10F above seasonal normals by Saturday. Conditions will be generally dry, with the exception of northeast portions of the forecast area on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...Utah will remain under a cyclonic flow aloft with high pressure over the Pacific and a mean trough positioned over the north-cenral CONUS through late week. Generally weak impulses are expected to ripple through the area during this time, maintaining isolated to widely scattered diurnal showers over mainly the higher terrain until a stronger trough Thursday brings an increased chance of precipitation, focusing mainly across northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming. While temperatures will generally see a gradual warming trend across most areas through the week, the airmass will remain cold enough that as skies trend clearer tonight, effective radiative cooling will bring freezing temperatures to many valleys across central and southwest Utah and locally across northern Utah. Freezing conditions can be expected again Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, but likely across a more limited area. Models are coming into better agreement with the Thursday feature, as it brings a cold front into Utah beginning late Wednesday night/Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. The best dynamics and associated precipitation will be confined to areas north of the jet, comprising around the northeastern third of the forecast area. With a warmer airmass, snow levels will not be as low as with the previous storm, and looks to be in the 8-9kt range. At this time, precipitation not expected to be particularly significant, as even at the 75th percentile, the NBM remains under 0.35 inches for QPF, and under 3 inches for snow (mainly in the Uintas). One more weak trailing wave for Friday may bring a few more additional weak showers, then high pressure looks to increase over the area during the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Dry conditions with clearing skies will continue. Light southerly winds will develop overnight before transitioning to a light northerly flow during the day. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Conditions will remain dry with skies clearing overnight. Winds will become light this evening with and easterly/northerly component persisting for most terminals overnight before becoming diurnally driven during the day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Generally dry conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the week. However, this will be briefly interrupted on Thursday as a grazing trough brings generally light precipitation to northeast Utah, with some local wetting rain potential across the northern mountains. Temperatures will gradually warm over the next several days, with highs averaging 10F above seasonal normals by the upcoming weekend. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ103-106>108-114>116-118>120-122. WY...None. && $$ Cheng/Mahan For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity  861 FXUS64 KMOB 190420 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1120 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - A HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect for all area beaches today. - Rain chances increase by mid to late next week, especially over the western half of the forecast area. - Localized patchy fog will be possible this morning and again late tonight into Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 An isolated shower or storm is possible today mainly across south-central Alabama with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday. Thursday isolated to scattered rain and storm chances shift west of I-65, becoming scattered to locally numerous west of the I-65 corridor Friday. Best chances Friday will likely remain confined to southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. As we head into the weekend, rain chances remain elevated as a series of weak shortwaves round the northern periphery of upper ridging with scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms possible. Patchy fog can't be ruled out through this morning and again Wednesday morning, with a few spots potentially seeing locally dense fog. Better chances for fog appear to be Wednesday morning across the area. Any fog will develop late into the overnight hours before lifting fairly quickly after sunrise. Outside of the rain chances, temperatures will be warm near or just above normal for this time of year on both highs and lows throughout the week and into the weekend. Highs generally fall in the 85 to 90 range, with some localized lower 90's possible any given day. Lows will remain in the upper 60's to lower 70's for most locations each night through the weekend. A High risk of rip currents today becomes a Moderate risk Wednesday. A Low to Moderate risk of rip currents will exist Thursday into Friday. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR flight category generally prevails across the area with some spots nearer the coast still dealing with a broken MVFR ceiling from a cumulus field associated with peak afternoon heating. VFR flight category should return for all areas near or shortly after sunset until we see MVFR to IFR ceilings return late tonight into early Tuesday morning. These should lift fairly quickly after daybreak, with most locations returning back to VFR by mid morning. Winds will continue to be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 knots through Tuesday, relaxing to below 5 knots during the night tonight. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through Saturday. Seas will build slightly through tonight then diminish Wednesday into Thursday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 87 71 87 70 / 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 85 72 84 72 / 10 10 0 0 Destin 83 71 83 71 / 10 0 0 0 Evergreen 89 66 91 67 / 30 10 20 10 Waynesboro 88 71 90 70 / 10 0 10 10 Camden 88 68 89 69 / 30 0 0 10 Crestview 89 66 91 67 / 20 10 20 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  028 FXUS63 KDDC 190425 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1125 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A break in the heat is expected across southwest Kansas on Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures will average between 15 and 20 degrees cooler. Highs will range from the mid 60s to around 70. This cool air will linger through late week. - Widespread beneficial rainfall possible across southwest Kansas mid week. - Temperatures will gradually warm back to more seasonal readings by the start of the weekend with scattered thunderstorms being possible almost each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Gusty north winds developed earlier this evening behind a cold front that was crossing southwest Kansas. At 10 PM, this cold front extended from northwest Oklahoma into south central Kansas as cooler air invades southwest Kansas. These gusty north winds will gradually subside overnight, becoming 15 to 20 mph by daybreak on Tuesday. Wind gusts at or above 35 mph however will be possible at times through 4am. An area of surface high pressure at the surface will cross the Central Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday as a northern branch upper wave crosses the northern plains. This will result in unseasonably cool air settling into southwest Kansas, with highs on Tuesday averaging 15 to 20 degrees cooler compared to Mondays highs. This cool air intrusion will linger across southwest Kansas through mid week as the cold front/stationary boundary remains south of the Oklahoma border. Along with this cooler air settling into southwest Kansas early in the week there will be improving moisture and lift developing north of this boundary (across southwest Kansas) Tuesday night through Thursday. As a result in addition to these cooler temperatures, there will be improving chances for accumulating rainfall mid to late week as western United States upper level trough approaches from the west. Based on the latest ensemble cluster, the best opportunity for widespread accumulating rainfall will occur from Wednesday night through Thursday as the upper trough over the Western United States moves east across the Rockies and out into the Plains. All of the ensemble clusters forecast a greater than 70% chance of accumulating precipitation (>0.1 inch) over the 24hour period ending at 7 PM Thursday. Furthermore 60-70% of these clusters indicated a 60-80% chance of 24hour rainfall totals exceeding a quarter of an inch between 7 PM Wednesday and 7 PM Thursday. Please keep in mind that it is still too early to tell where and how much rainfall will occur from this upcoming event but for what it is worth...if the current ensembles are correct the higher rainfall will be over extreme southwest Kansas. As we look at the upcoming weekend period...conditions will continue to favor an opportunity for scattered thunderstorms almost each day across some portion of southwest Kansas as a series of upper level troughs cross the Central Plains. Currently the chances for widespread accumulating rainfall from these storms are not anticipated. As for temperatures it looks like they will be climbing back to more seasonal readings for the last half of May. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Low clouds and gusty north winds are expected overnight as a cold front moves south across Oklahoma as of 04z. Wind gusts near 30 knots are possible until 09Z this morning. These gusty winds will decrease early Tuesday as high pressure builds into western Kansas. The low clouds, which will be between 1000 and 2500 feet AGL, are expected to linger through daybreak, with VFR conditions returning to southwest Kansas shortly after sunrise based on BUFR soundings and LAMP guidance. 60-80% chance of 24hour rainfall totals exceeding a quarter of an inch between 7 PM Wednesday and 7 PM Thursday && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert  097 FXUS62 KTBW 190429 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1229 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly in the afternoon to early evening hours. - Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Persistent pattern will be relatively locked in for the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula through the week with the ridge axis located north of the forecast area. This will produce east to southeast boundary layer flow across the peninsula through the weekend. The west coast sea breeze boundary will develop each day with the southeast flow holding the boundary over the coastal counties. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon along the boundary with the greatest areal coverage from the Tampa Bay area and south. Stronger storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH and small hail. An U/L low east of the Bahamas will drift northwest to just off the east coast of Florida. This will in effect create lower heights over west central and southwest Florida which will aid in increasing convective instability for the next several days. A strong U/L ridge will build over the forecast area during the weekend increasing large scale subsidence over the region. Although afternoon scattered showers/storms are still expected to develop along the west coast sea breeze boundary, the increased subsidence will decrease overall coverage of storms. Offshore flow will aid in continuing above normal daily temperatures across west central and southwest Florida with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. The increased subsidence over the weekend will allow temperatures to climb even a few degrees higher. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the night under mostly clear skies. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop during the mid/late afternoon hours mainly over the coastal counties with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs which may impact TPA/PIE/PGD/RSW/FMY for a few hours. Wind gusts to 50 MPH and small hail will also be possible with a few stronger storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with no headlines expected. Main hazard will be showers/storms developing over land each day that will push locally offshore during the afternoon/evening hours creating locally strong winds and rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 74 91 76 / 60 30 40 10 FMY 92 74 92 73 / 60 20 60 20 GIF 91 72 91 72 / 20 0 30 10 SRQ 93 72 91 74 / 70 30 40 20 BKV 94 69 93 70 / 40 10 30 10 SPG 94 75 93 76 / 60 40 30 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OglesbyTBW-425125  098 FXUS62 KTBW 190429 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1229 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly in the afternoon to early evening hours. - Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Persistent pattern will be relatively locked in for the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula through the week with the ridge axis located north of the forecast area. This will produce east to southeast boundary layer flow across the peninsula through the weekend. The west coast sea breeze boundary will develop each day with the southeast flow holding the boundary over the coastal counties. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon along the boundary with the greatest areal coverage from the Tampa Bay area and south. Stronger storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH and small hail. An U/L low east of the Bahamas will drift northwest to just off the east coast of Florida. This will in effect create lower heights over west central and southwest Florida which will aid in increasing convective instability for the next several days. A strong U/L ridge will build over the forecast area during the weekend increasing large scale subsidence over the region. Although afternoon scattered showers/storms are still expected to develop along the west coast sea breeze boundary, the increased subsidence will decrease overall coverage of storms. Offshore flow will aid in continuing above normal daily temperatures across west central and southwest Florida with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. The increased subsidence over the weekend will allow temperatures to climb even a few degrees higher. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the night under mostly clear skies. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop during the mid/late afternoon hours mainly over the coastal counties with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs which may impact TPA/PIE/PGD/RSW/FMY for a few hours. Wind gusts to 50 MPH and small hail will also be possible with a few stronger storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with no headlines expected. Main hazard will be showers/storms developing over land each day that will push locally offshore during the afternoon/evening hours creating locally strong winds and rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 74 91 76 / 60 30 40 10 FMY 92 74 92 73 / 60 20 60 20 GIF 91 72 91 72 / 20 0 30 10 SRQ 93 72 91 74 / 70 30 40 20 BKV 94 69 93 70 / 40 10 30 10 SPG 94 75 93 76 / 60 40 30 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby  213 FXUS63 KFGF 190431 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers is expected this afternoon through tonight, bringing an additional few hundredths to two tenths of an inch across mainly southeastern North Dakota into western Minnesota. - Overnight temperatures could drop into the low to mid 30s west of the Red River Valley tonight, and a frost advisory is in effect. Temperatures drop again to near freezing across all of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...Synopsis... Large upper trough continues over the Rockies, with a lead shortwave starting to move through the southwest flow into SD. This shortwave is already bringing some light rain showers starting to move in around the Valley City area. The northern portion of the main upper trough will move into the Plains tonight and then off into Ontario tomorrow, with southern vorticity lobe still down near UT and NV. The northern shortwave moving through should help push high pressure down into the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds return quickly back to the south on Wednesday under southwesterly flow aloft. The split trough remains over the western CONUS Thursday, but starts to move out into the Plains Friday into Saturday. A lot of variation in the ensemble members into how exactly the trough comes out and if there is another shortwave Sunday. Blended solution of some precipitation chances and temperatures rising above seasonal averages by Sunday and Monday continues to seem reasonable. ...Rain chances tonight... CAMs and global models in pretty good agreement on showers currently over the James River Valley spreading northeastward through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight. The bulk of the rain will be exiting out of our eastern counties between midnight and 6 AM, although there will be some lingering light showers/drizzle for a while after. All but portions of the Devils Lake Basin have high probability of seeing at least 0.01 of rain, and there is a 50 to 80 percent probability of at least 0.10 inches mainly in southeastern ND into western MN. ...Temperatures into the 30s tonight... Continued cold air advection pushes 850mb and even 925mb temps in some areas down below 0 C tonight. While skies will remain cloudy and there will be at least a little bit of mixing from northwesterly winds, temperatures look quite cold by tomorrow morning. NBM has probabilities 80 percent and higher for temperatures to get below 36 degrees, and even the less bullish HREF has 40 to 50 percent. With the clouds and wind do not think we will get down as low as the base NBM had us, so tweaked lows up a bit. We should stay above 32, but even with not much actual frost occurring the 33 to 36 degree range west of the Red River Valley could cause some issues to sensitive plants. Went ahead and matched neighbors for a frost advisory tonight. It does look to clear out and go light for winds tomorrow night, so better chances for freeze and frost look likely Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Light to moderate rain is moving across eastern ND and northwest MN and will transition east of the region through 10Z. Vis within areas of rain is generally 3-6sm. IFR ceilings are expected to prevail across the region through at least 12Z, with improvement to MVFR by midday Tuesday and VFR by Tuesday evening (west to east). North to northwest winds 12-20kt are expected across much of the region, with periodic gusts around 25kt during the daytime period Tuesday. Winds should become light and variable with surface high pressure arriving Tuesday evening (along with clearing skies). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-007-014-015- 024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...DJR  231 FXUS66 KMTR 190432 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 932 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1251 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 - Breezy to windy conditions, especially across the North, East, and South Bay Mountains and the Santa Cruz Mountains continue through tonight - Elevated fire weather concerns continue through today across the interior due to very dry conditions and breezy winds - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek with seasonal temperatures returning late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1251 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (This evening through Tuesday) Gusty offshore winds have started to come down across the region and will continue to ease through the remainder of the day. Current gusts across the lower elevations are peaking around 25-30 mph with gusts across the higher elevations peaking between 35-45 mph. The strongest gust observed during this wind event was 86 mph right around midnight at Mt. Umunhum where the station is at an elevation of 3319 feet. This tracks pretty well with when the SFO-WMC pressure gradient peaked (-7.60 mb) around 1AM and again around 5AM. The SFO- WMC gradient is currently around -4.3 mb and is expected to continue easing through the remainder of the day. Winds remain lightly offshore across the interior through the remainder of today into tomorrow but winds will be weaker. We will see a return to our normal breezy afternoon/evening winds that ease overnight starting Tuesday. Upper level ridging continues to dominate the Pacific Ocean while broad upper level troughing prevails over the Western United States. At the surface, high pressure prevails over the Pacific while a coastal trough develops along the California coast. Warmer temperatures are expected to continue Tuesday through Thursday. This is thanks both to ridging offshore suppressing the marine layer and a warmer, drier airmass moving in in the wake of this weekend's strong offshore winds. Interior high temperatures will generally be in the 80s with the hottest portions of the North and East Bays in the low 90s. Coastal areas will be slightly cooler in the 60s to mid 70s. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through much of the upcoming week with daytime relative humidity values dropping into the 10's to 20's. While fire weather concerns are lower now that the winds are easing, fine fuels (grass, shrubs) are dried out and are ready to burn. If you are engaging in any outdoor activities involving flames or are towing something, keep a close eye on it and prevent sparks from spreading. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1251 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) The overall pattern remains the same for much of the upcoming week. High temperatures will stay above seasonal normals through Thursday with highs in the 80s to low 90s across the interior and 60s to 70s along the coast. Patchy moderate heatrisk is forecast across urban areas but it is note widespread enough to necessitate a Heat Advisory. If you are spending time outdoors this week make sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade as needed. Winds generally remain offshore with diurnally breezy conditions expected. Friday into the weekend a pattern change looks likely. Long range guidance suggests upper level ridging will weaken and shift westward over the Pacific while broad upper level troughing dominates the West Coast. With high pressure shifting away, onshore winds return and the marine layer will be able to redevelop by late week. A shallow (~500 ft) marine layer will redevelop mid to late week but will deepen to ~1000 ft by Friday. This, and receding high pressure, will kick off a cooling trend with interior temperatures returning to the 70s to low 80s and coastal areas to the 60s. The return of the marine layer will help to alleviate dry daytime conditions, further reducing fire risk late next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Winds may become calm and/or light and variable overnight. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Westerly winds will continue to diminish with the potential to become calm and/or light and variable overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and VFR with northerly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 932 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Vicinity of SFO... SFO Bridge Approach... Monterey Bay Terminals... && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 932 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Conditions will continue to improve tonight as northerly breezes continue to diminish. Rough seas will prevail in the outer waters with moderate seas in the inner waters. Hazardous conditions for small craft will persist through the week across the northern outer waters due to rough seas and strong northerly breezes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Gusty north to northeast winds will continue through this afternoon before easing tonight into tomorrow. Peak gusts between 35 to 45 mph are still possible across the higher elevations into this evening. Daytime humidity retention remains poor with most sites staying around 10-25% across the interior and higher peaks with limited overnight recoveries. Winds ease by Tuesday but fire weather concerns will linger through late week as light offshore flow continues and daytime humidities remain poor. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  289 FXUS63 KMKX 190434 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1134 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and storms late this evening into the overnight hours. Just a very small potential for strong or severe storms. - 30 percent chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms with the cold frontal passage on Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. - Cool and drier weather then returns for midweek. - Rain chances return Friday into Friday night(40-60%), followed by a gradual warming trend Saturday into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1134 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tonight through Thursday night: The decaying MCS is now moving into sw WI and will continue to encounter much greater MLCIN and high LFCs. However, still expect fairly widespread showers and sct storms to move across all of srn WI during the early morning hours as a sswly low level jet of 40 kts increases warm, moist advection and boosts elevated CAPE to 1000-2000 J/KG. Wind gusts and small hail will be the main concerns. A wave of low pressure along the stationary front from central IA to ern MN will track newd to near Lake Superior by 12Z Tue. The low will then track ewd into Quebec during the day with its trailing cold front moving across srn WI Tue AM into the early afternoon. Moist low levels and marginal instability could result in a broken line of showers and isold storms along the front but no severe wx is anticipated. Nwly winds and cold advection will continue into Tue nt with low temps falling into the lower to middle 40s. High pressure will then move from MN to the nrn Great Lakes on Wed and remain there into Thu. Nely sfc winds and a relatively cool air mass will reside over srn WI with high temps in the 50s over ern WI and lower 60s over south central WI. A return of warm advection will bring 20 percent chances for showers west of Madison Thu nt. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 1134 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Friday through Monday: Low pressure ejects from the Southern Plains on Friday, with continued model discrepancies as to its progression. Canadian and Euro indicate a more southerly track of a single low pressure system bringing widespread rain and storms to southern Wisconsin throughout the day along the northern side of the low, while the GFS prefers a split pattern with one portion of the energy progressing through the lower Mississippi Valley and the other following the jet stream into Minnesota and brings a warm front with rain and storms into southern Wisconsin. Regardless of solution, probabilities of seeing rainfall have increased, so kept likely PoPs (50-65%) in the forecast for Friday afternoon into Friday night. Models also are inclined to agree that precipitation will taper off into Saturday as the warm front lifts north or the low pressure system exits to the east. Generally unsettled weather looks to develop Sunday through Tuesday as broad 500 mb troughing develops across the Upper Midwest, bringing multiple shortwaves through the region. As the upper level troughing develops, high pressure building in the Plains will bring increasing temperatures through the weekend into early next week. Monday and Tuesday temperatures could return to the mid-80s. However, weak, generally southeasterly winds will allow for Lake Michigan influence on temperatures in the easternmost counties. MH && .AVIATION... Issued 1134 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Numerous showers and scattered storms spreading west to east across srn WI during the early morning hours. Areas of MVFR Cigs and Vsbys may linger after the rain. More widespread MVFR Cigs will then overspread srn WI just after sunrise and ahead of the approaching cold front. Localized Cigs below 1 kft are possible over south central WI. The Cigs will dissipate after the cold frontal passage from mid to late afternoon. Gusty swly winds to 30 kts are expected on Tue especially over ern WI. VFR conditions for Tue nt. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 1134 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect tonight through Tuesday morning for the north half of the lake as relatively mild and humid air flows over the cold lake waters. Otherwise modest to breezy southerly winds will develop tonight and last into early Tuesday afternoon, then followed by the passage of a cold front. Winds will shift to northwesterly with the cold frontal passage and remain a bit breezy. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected over the central and southern portion of the lake late tonight into Tuesday. High pressure around 30.4 inches will then move into the northern Great Lakes for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Light to modest north to northeast winds can be expected. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor from early morning Tuesday into the afternoon for breezy southwest winds. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM Tuesday to 4 PM Tuesday. Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ868 until noon Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee  382 FXAK67 PAJK 190437 AAA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 735 PM AKDT Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - A weak system brings some rain to the northern coast tonight into Tuesday, with winds and seas decreasing into Tuesday morning. - Wednesday morning a gale force front impacts the region. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday/ A front passed this morning with westerly winds behind it an some breaks in the clouds showing up through the afternoon. There are some showers still around and expect most along west facing slopes while the lee side will see the best breaks this evening. A band of vorticity looks to track over the region tonight, so have kept scattered shower potential in the forecast for that, namely across the north. There is also CAA behind this front, so expecting a chilly night, some places that clear out more across the north could see temps into the mid 30s, getting close to frost potential, but kept it just above that due to the amount of clouds around. Upper level ridging sharpens some for Tuesday with NWLY flow, so more breaks are in the works, especially for the southern inner channels (Ketchikan). Isolated showers will remain around the northern mountains with best breaks over the inner channels. Some sunshine will make it feel markedly warmer than the last couple days and made a point to have Tuesday be warmer than Monday or Wednesday. The next front will be on our doorstep Tuesday night. Yakutat can expect rain before dawn and winds will back around to the S-SE ahead of the front. Rain will spread across the panhandle through day, becoming heavy at times along the northern/central outer coast in the morning and afternoon. Rain will take until late afternoon to reach as far east as Hyder. Looking at frontal passage with a wind shift to the west again late Wednesday night. .LONG TERM.../ Thursday to Monday / Thursday will likely be showers or fading shower activity in a post weather front (Wednesday's) situation. The associated low feature near Prince William Sound weakens and will be getting absorbed during Thursday/Thursday night into the front from a low over Bristol Bay. The new front sweeps the western gulf Thursday and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night. Yakutat should Good rain rates Thursday night. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so the feature that rolls across the panhandle Friday is a frontal band followed by a ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend. For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / The models here are still trying to settle into a pattern. Indications are that a system will spin into the Gulf of Alaska, mainly for Sunday, however its intensity and track are uncertain at this point. Ensemble means and a variety of operational models are trending toward a 995 to 1000 mb low heading in the general direction of Dixon Entrance by Sunday night, but there are indications the low could be as strong as 985 mb, and some outliers are pointing toward a much further south track and weaker low. Overall the weekend may be cool and damp or could be wet and windy, especially over the southern panhandle on Sunday depending on how this system evolves. && .AVIATION.../Through Tuesday Afternoon/... A mixed bag of conditions prevails across SE AK While the northern and central panhandle saw improving conditions on Monday, parts of the southern panhandle retained IFR or near IFR CIGS up until the late afternoon. Still, nearly all locations have now improved to MVFR (south) or VFR (north). During the overnight hours, expect CIGS in the Northern panhandle to diminish back to VFR for some locations, with aweak front arriving on Tuesday which will keep CIGS ~2k to 3 kt ft. For the southern panhandle, conditions will generally continue to improve, with the front expected to move north. However, chances of fog exist for some locations, and where fog does develop overnight, IFR or even LIFR CIGS and VIS cannot be ruled out. Any fog that does form will swiftly dissipate through the mid to late morning on Tuesday, with the remainder of Tuesday like to see VFR or upper level MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... Winds continue to diminish in the wake of a front which moved through on Sunday, although respectable southerly flow will persist in Northern Lynn Canal through the foreseeable future. A system moving across the Gulf on Tuesday arrives in SE AK on Wednesday, bringing gale force winds to the N and NE Gulf Coast, and small craft conditions to the inner channels. Outside coastal waters: Winds have diminished substantially in the wake of the last system, and seas will be following suit Monday evening, with seas trending down to 6 to 7 ft for most areas with the exception of the N Gulf East of Yakutat Bay. WInds trend upwards on Tuesday across the Gulf, and by Tuesday night for the outer coast, as another system approaches SE AK. Expect gale force winds to be largely focused around the northern gulf and gulf coast, down as far as Cape Fairweather. Waveheights ramp back up as this system moves in, reaching 12-15 ft on Wednesday. Winds and waveheights then diminish late Wednesday into Thursday as the system departs. Inside Channels: Winds diminish across the inner channels through Monday evening, with the exception of Lynn Canal, where elevated flow of ~20 kt persists. Winds will ramp back up to 10-15 kt on Tuesday, as southerly flow is sustained by a weak wave moving onshore. Wednesday will see widespread sustained southerly winds of 25 to 30 kt as a strong warm front moves onshore, alongside elevated seas, with ocean entrances reaching 10+ feet, and areas where swell reaches seeing additional inclement conditions. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ferrin LONG TERM...Bezenek/EAL AVIATION...GFS MARINE...GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  472 FXUS64 KTSA 190440 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for portions of NE OK, near the OK/KS border until 7 AM. Damaging wind gusts will be the main severe hazard. - Numerous showers and storms Tuesday morning into NE OK spreading southward through early afternoon. Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall. - Cooler temperatures Wednesday-Friday with continued low to medium rain chances through the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A line of strong and severe thunderstorms has formed across southeast KS, along a southeast-advancing cold front that is currently on the doorstep of the forecast area. The line of convection has produced a distinct outflow boundary that has pushed well ahead of the squall line. As long as this stays true, it will keep any tornado threat just about at zero. Main severe hazard with this line of storms will be damaging wind gusts, with isolated large hail embedded. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Pawnee, Osage, Washington (OK), Nowata, Craig, and Ottawa counties until 7 AM. The line is forecast to reach the I-44 corridor right around sunrise Tuesday, give/take an hour. Latest consensus in CAMs show some weakening of the line as it moves southeast of I-44, though pockets of strong and severe storms will still be possible as the line becomes more diffused. As it moves into southeast OK late in the morning and into the afternoon, the combination of daytime heating and existing outflow boundaries may cause re-intensification in the line; damaging winds would be the main threat if anything severe develops. The severe threat will shift south and east of the area by mid- afternoon, with lingering light to moderate stratiform rain lingering mainly across southeast OK and northwest AR through the remainder of the afternoon. Overall, rainfall amounts will vary from half an inch to around an inch. A few locations may have amounts closer to two inches with pockets of intense cores embedded in the line. Southwest flow aloft with maintain itself through the daytime and evening on Tuesday. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along the 925-850mb frontal boundary late Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly across northeast OK and northwest AR. Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but an additional rainfall amount up to half an inch will be possible. Precipitation chances will continue through the end of the short- term period. Substantially cooler temperatures will follow the cold front overnight tonight and during the day Tuesday, with temperatures falling into the 60s and lower 70s immediately behind the front. Temperatures across southeast OK and northwest AR could reach the lower 80s in the afternoon prior to the frontal passage. The front will exit the forecast area sometime around sunset. Cloud coverage should stay thick through Tuesday night and should keep temperatures from plummeting overnight. Regardless, overnight lows will drop into the 50s and 60s by sunrise Wednesday. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Consensus in model guidance continues to show a series of passing mid/upper-level waves through the remainder of the week, through this upcoming weekend, and even into early next week. As such, there will be daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through the long-term period. At this time, flow aloft is expected to be fairly light and not very supportive of severe weather through at least Thursday and much of Friday. However, PWATs are expected to remain abnormally high through the period and the upper-level waves will likely produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall at times. One possible instance of heavy rainfall will occur Thursday afternoon/evening and into Thursday night as a couple of shortwaves combine over the area. Another instance of heavy rain is forecast to occur Friday night into Saturday morning as a more potent trough passes to the north of the area. Instability and shear will become a little more defined and a limited severe threat may develop Friday evening/night as storms are expected to initiate off a dryline in western OK Friday afternoon and push eastward into the region later. Better details on timing and severity will come in later days. An active pattern will persist Sunday and Monday, with isolated to scattered precipitation chances each day. Northerly winds and cloud cover (with precipitation chances) will keep temperatures below average through Thursday. Temperatures climb back near seasonal average by Friday before climbing above average by late in the weekend or early next week. Mejia && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions will prevail this evening, with LLWS at all sites until the arrival of a cold front late tonight and Tuesday morning. A line of thunderstorms is expected to accompany the cold front, with reduced ceilings and visibilities and gusty winds. Gusty south winds ahead of the cold front will become north Tuesday, with gusts up to 20 knots through the day. MVFR ceilings will prevail through the day Tuesday following the passage of the cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 87 67 72 57 / 20 70 70 70 FSM 89 72 79 66 / 20 20 90 50 MLC 88 73 77 62 / 10 30 80 50 BVO 87 61 66 52 / 20 80 40 70 FYV 85 72 77 62 / 40 30 80 60 BYV 85 72 77 60 / 30 30 90 70 MKO 86 71 75 59 / 20 30 90 60 MIO 86 67 72 55 / 40 70 80 80 F10 88 70 75 57 / 20 30 80 60 HHW 87 73 78 65 / 20 30 90 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...05  548 FXUS64 KEPZ 190441 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1041 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1014 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 - Breezy and mostly dry conditions continue each afternoon through the work week. - Potential rain chances this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1014 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 An upper trough spanning the western CONUS will keep the area under dry southwest flow Tuesday and even into Wednesday. Expect low end breeziness each afternoon with speeds generally 10-20 mph sustained. A cold front is barreling down the Great Plains this evening and looks to reach the edges of the Sacramento Mtns by early this morning before it gets pushed away from the area due to dry SW flow picking up again by the daylight hours. Moisture from the southern Plains will push into the area Wednesday morning. But, how far west will the moisture make it? GFS says moisture will make it to the Hudspeth county/El Paso county line, but the NAM pushes this moisture as far west as the Rio Grande Valley. This will depend on if our area could see thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon when the dryline races eastward again. Much of the action will be to our east, but perhaps we could get some thunderstorms to fire off that boundary if moisture stays in the area longer than forecast. A cutoff low looks to form over the Baja California area Thursday, which keeps the area under southwest flow much of Thursday and into Friday before the weak cutoff low pushes eastward Saturday. Thursday and Friday, the area keeps low end breeziness with wind speeds of 10-20 mph each afternoon. Models are suggesting slight chances of rain in Hudspeth county late Thursday and into Friday. Somewhat better and potentially more widespread rain chances possible late Friday and Saturday due to the cutoff low. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1014 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period with mostly clear skies, perhaps some high clouds here and there. Some breeziness looks to continue at KELP and even KLRU but winds will continue to decrease overnight. Tomorrow will be another breezy day with winds out of the southwest but speeds won't be as strong as what we saw earlier today (Monday). Wind speeds will be around 10-20KT sustained with gusts to around 30KT possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Today continues in critical fire conditions as gusty winds, which really lasted all night in many locations, increases again this afternoon. Thus Red Flag Warnings will continues into this evening. Tuesday through Friday, wind conditions slacken a bit, but each afternoon will still become breezy. Fire conditions to remain at elevated levels. Winds over the Capitan Mountains will lighten up a bit after today, and will see significant wind shift to the east/northeast Friday night and Saturday. This will also produce modest increases in dewpoint/humidity, and could lead to a shower or thunderstorm over eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties Saturday and Sunday. Despite this uptick in moisture, ERCs are still forecast to remain around the 90th percentile through Sunday. Min RH: Lowlands 8-13% through Friday, then 12-18% Sat/Sun. Gila/Black Range 8-15% through Friday, then 12-20% Sat/Sun. Sacramento/Capitan Mountains 10-18% through Friday, then 20-30% Sat/Sun. Vent rates excellent through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 63 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 54 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 67 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 55 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 48 80 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 53 91 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 87 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 62 90 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 92 56 88 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 59 97 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 85 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 59 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 56 89 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 54 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 90 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 92 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 56 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 80 48 76 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 47 77 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 45 75 46 73 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 42 79 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 53 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 86 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 46 83 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 46 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 50 82 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 50 87 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 88 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 88 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher  566 FXUS66 KSGX 190442 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 942 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Night and morning low clouds and fog will be present each day through the forecast period along the coast for the first half of the week and into portions of the valleys towards the end of the week. High temperatures will be below average in the deserts today and tomorrow, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above average west of the mountains for the first half of the week. Minor fluctuations in temperatures for Thursday through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Weak offshore flow through Wednesday will keep low clouds out of the inland valleys but won't be strong enough to keep coastal areas clear of low clouds overnight and in the mornings. It should help with more efficient clearing in the afternoons through Wednesday. A noticeable warming expected today compared to yesterday with the inland valleys expected to be 8 to 15 degrees warmer. An additional 3 to 7 degrees of warming is expected on Tuesday from the coast to the deserts, with continued warming inland Wednesday. The marine layer is expected to deepen Wednesday night into Thursday, which will push low clouds and fog into the inland valleys. A deeper marine layer is expected to be maintained through the weekend. There will be slight day-to-day differences in high temperatures for Thursday through next weekend with high temperatures a few to around 5 degrees above average. && .AVIATION... 190600Z...Coast/Coastal Valleys...Clear skies and VFR conditions prevail across the coastal basin tonight. Low chance (<10%) of marine layer cloud development across coastal San Diego County between 13-17z. If any low clouds do develop, bases would be AOA 1500ft MSL. Higher chances for marine layer clouds to return Tuesday night. Inland Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...Another round of northerly/easterly offshore winds pick back up after 18z Tuesday. Strongest gusts up to 25-30kts localized to mountain passes, closer to 20kts or less stretching below passes. Otherwise, VFR prevailing through the period. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CO AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan  617 FXUS65 KRIW 190444 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1044 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloud cover will gradually decrease from the northwest overnight leading to widespread sub-freezing temperatures east of the Continental Divide early Tuesday morning. Fresh snow cover in some areas could allow temperatures to drop into the teens. Freeze Warnings are in effect Monday night. - Conditions will be dry and temperatures rebound Tuesday and Wednesday, but daytime highs remain well below normal. The arrival of another weather system Thursday cools temperatures a few degrees and provides another round of precipitation. - Early indications point to a much warmer and dry Memorial Day holiday weekend with widespread 75 to 85 degree daytime highs. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1235 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 The snow and wind across the area has been mostly as forecasted. Greatest impacts were around South Pass and I-80, with winter travel impacts going into this afternoon. Conditions should slowly improve through the evening as snow decreases and winds diminish. As was the trend in the day leading to the start of the event, northern locations have not seen as much (or any) snow, so have ended the advisories there early. As the system exits, very cold temperatures remain in place, with lows tonight in the upper teens to mid-20s for a majority of the area. Cooler temperatures remain in place Tuesday and Tuesday night, with a very gradual warm up into the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Rain changed over to snow in the Wind River Basin and across Sweetwater County just a few hours ago after 11pm Sunday night. Much of Natrona County is around 37F degrees as of 08Z (2am), with precipitation still falling as rain. The forecast remains on track this morning, with the threat of snow and wind impacting areas from South Pass southward into Sweetwater County. The 700mb low from this storm system will be passing close to the CO/WY border this morning, resulting in a tight temperature and pressure gradient. 700mb northeast winds of 50-60kt will occur from the Green Mountains/Rattlesnake Range into Sweetwater County. This will result in wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph occurring this morning over locations like South Pass down to the Rock Springs/Green River area. Windy conditions (wind gusts up to 35 mph) will be widespread across the CWA this morning as the storm system moves over CO this morning. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches is still expected across portions of Natrona County, the Lander Foothills and the eastern half of Sweetwater County. Travel conditions could be difficult this morning due to the blowing snow and icy roads. Impacts from snow accumulations on roads is likely to only last through 15Z/16Z (9am or 10am) as it will be more difficult for the snow to stick due to the high sun angle. These impacts will begin to decrease through the morning, with areas like Lander and Casper improving first as snow begins to end toward midday. Impacts along I-80 will last the longest due to the proximity of the 700mb low, but is expected to wane between 18Z and 21Z as snowfall ends. Winds will be decreasing across the area after 18Z as well, with the stronger winds of 35 to 40 mph continuing from South Pass southward into Sweetwater County and decreasing through the afternoon. Needless to say, temperatures will be anywhere from 5 to 25 degrees colder today and about 15 to 30 degrees below normal. Winds will continue to decrease this evening, as the storm system quickly exits over the Central Plains and light winds (10kt or less) expected for most areas by 06Z Tuesday. Fog development could occur as late as sunrise Tuesday morning as clouds are expected to remain in place across central and southern portions of the CWA through much of the night tonight. Dry and warming conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with another Canadian storm system impacting the area on Thursday. This system doesn't look to be as cold as today's storm and snow levels staying around 7000ft at this time. Model guidance remain split at this time, but confidence is medium for a mainly dry holiday weekend for at least 2 of the 3 days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 West of the Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals Shortwave energy within a longwave trough traversing Wyoming Monday evening has been responsible for lingering IFR/MVFR light snow at KPNA and KBPI. Current satellite and model trends indicate this activity ends around 08Z/Tuesday with low MVFR cloud decks to persist afterward. There is still a chance of LIFR/IFR fog and low clouds at both terminals, particularly KBPI, until 15Z/Tuesday. There may be similar IFR/MVFR at KRKS during that time, but confidence is low given current model trends. All terminals are VFR after 16Z/Tuesday through the remainder of the period. Enough mid-level moisture and instability is present for cumulus to form over the mountains and drift into the valleys/basins late Tuesday afternoon. A few showers could occur around KJAC, but confidence is low for any impacts. Mountain tops frequently obscured through 16Z/Tuesday. East of the Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals Shortwave energy within a longwave trough traversing Wyoming Monday evening has been responsible for intermittent light snow at KCPR. Given current satellite and model trends, this activity should end before 07Z/Tuesday. There could be a brief period of fog and IFR ceilings at KCPR overnight before increasing southwest wind arrives around 11Z/Tuesday. Other terminals to be VFR through the period, although fog may be in the vicinity of KRIW and KLND shortly after sunrise Tuesday. Enough mid-level moisture and instability is present for cumulus to form over the mountains and drift into the valleys/basins late Tuesday afternoon. A few showers could occur around KCOD and perhaps KLND, but confidence is low for any impacts. Mountain tops frequently obscured through 12Z/Tuesday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ003>006-010-011- 016>020. && $$ UPDATE...Wittmann DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...CNJ/LaVoie  841 FXUS63 KOAX 190447 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1147 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler weather moves in on Tuesday with potential for morning frost for northeast Nebraska on Wednesday. - Shower/thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night into Thursday continuing on/off through Friday. - Trend back toward warmer temperatures over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Severe weather has cleared to the southeast this evening leaving cool, cloudy conditions in place for the overnight hours. We have a large temperature gradient across the area with temperatures in the upper 40s across northeast Nebraska, to low-to-mid 60s in southwest Iowa and far southeast Nebraska. The HRRR continues to show some potential for a couple additional storms developing over far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa around midnight tonight. If anything were to develop, it likely wouldn't be severe. Skies will be clearing Tuesday morning as high pressure builds over the area. Cooler air mass remains in place under northerly flow. Overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday we light winds and clear skies contribute to temperatures dropping into the low-to-mid 30s across northeast Nebraska, possibly necessitating a frost advisory for this area. Places more across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa will see temperatures drop into the upper 30s to low 40s, though a few outlying areas around Omaha and Lincoln could still see some patchy frost. High pressure remains centered over the region on Wednesday keeping temperatures cooler than normal with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. The trough over the northern Rockies starts to deepen on Wednesday, re-amplifying southwesterly flow across our region. This will bring moisture back to our area with increasing clouds into the afternoon. Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday as the trough over the northern Rockies starts to deepen, re-amplifying southwesterly flow across our region which will lead back to moisture advecting back into our area from the Gulf. As a warm front lifts into northern Kansas on Wednesday, we see isentropic upglide over our area lead to shower and storm development starting Wednesday night continuing into Thursday. We don't actually see the warm front lift into our area until Friday, keeping temperatures cool on Thursday as well. Friday the warm front lifts north, getting wrapped up into a developing surface low over the Northern Plains. This will reinvigorating shower and storm chances through the morning hours. We may see a small window of clearing before the cold front arrives Friday afternoon/evening. We should watch this period with some potential for severe storms, but at this time there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the details of this system. Confidence significantly decreases in the forecast going into next weekend as significant differences in the forecast of the upper-level pattern develop. Ensembles suggest a trend back toward warmer-than-normal temperatures toward the latter-half of the weekend with low chances for storms possible Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 IFR to MVFR ceilings are in place at the terminals this evening, with breezy northwesterly winds gusting to 20-25 kts expected to last through the overnight hours. Radar data carried forward by the short-term model is indicating that areas of drizzle will continue to develop/move to the east of the area, affecting KOMA to dip into MVFR visibilities at times through 08z. Otherwise, expect slight improvement to ceilings overnight, with sustained winds loosening after sunrise, with winds turning increasingly northerlywhile dropping gusts completely around or shortly before 00z tomorrow. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Petersen  846 FXUS64 KMAF 190447 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1147 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1141 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through Tuesday. Highs along portions of the Rio Grande may reach between 105 and 110 degrees during this time frame. - Critical fire weather conditions expected for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the northwest Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. - Rain and storm chances increase (40-80% chances) by the middle to latter part of the week. We will be monitoring a few strong to severe storms each day. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns over locations east of the Pecos River Wednesday into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 One more day of hot and dry weather with only a stray (10% to 15%) chance of showers/storms, before a cooling trend and increased chance of showers/storms beginning tomorrow. As the dryline that retrograded as far west as the Big Bend into Upper Trans Pecos and Lea County this morning surges east, strong southwest winds will redevelop. These winds will be aided by increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of a deepening trough over the Intermountain West, and along with keeping critical fire weather concerns over SE NM and parts of W TX (see Fire Weather Discussion), the stronger west/southwest downsloping winds will allow highs to rise a few degrees higher than yesterday into the 90s F, mid 80s F higher elevations, triple digits over central and northeast portions of the area as well as along the Rio Grande, and 105F to 110F readings once more for the Big Bend. Highest chance for a stray shower/storm will be over the northern Permian Basin this evening. Tonight, the dryline again retrogrades into central portions of the area. Accompanied increased boundary layer moisture will again limit overnight cooling and keep lows in the upper 60s F to mid 70s F east of the dryline, while drier air west of the dryline keeps lows in the 50s to lower 60s F. Low to medium (25% to 40%) rain chances develop late evening into early morning Tuesday as disturbances within mid to upper flow aloft and a backdoor cold front developing in from the northeast provide lift and focusing of moisture for shower/storm development. No widespread severe risk is anticipated into the morning. Tuesday will be a different story. With more disturbances developing northeast from the northern MX plateau into the Western Rolling Plains through the day, quickly renewed southeast upslope flow, and the dryline anchoring over east-central parts of the Permian Basin into Big Bend near the stalling cold front, lift and focusing of moisture both at the surface and aloft will be present for shower/storm development. Unlike tonight, severe weather will be possible tomorrow. SPC has eastern parts of the Permian Basin into Terrell County outlooked in a SLGT risk, with a MRGL risk over the the rest of the Permian Basin into the Upper Trans Pecos Big Bend. Storm coverage through the evening is expected to remain scattered with medium (35% to 50%) rain chances over easternmost regions and low (20% to 35%) farther west, unless storms can consolidate into a more numerous clusters or linear segments. Stronger storms have the potential to produce large hail up to 2" in diameter, damaging winds (especially if storm mode becomes more linear), and heavy rainfall. With strong directional shear from backed easterly winds, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out in the most rapidly intensifying severe storms, especially from Terrell County in to the southeast Permian Basin. Rainfall of 0.25" to 0.50" over easternmost parts of the Permian Basin with amounts up to 1.00" may pose flooding concerns for low-lying and poor drainage areas. With increased clouds and rain chances over central and eastern parts of the area along with "cooler" humid upslope flow, highs largely in the mid 80s to mid 90s F are forecast, with triple digits confined to the Rio Grande. These cooler daytime temperatures will allow lows to drop into the 50s to lower 60s F for much of the area tomorrow night, while intermittent disturbances aloft maintain low (20% to 30%) shower/storm chances over northern and eastern parts of the area. Even cooler temperatures and higher shower/storm chances with continued severe weather risk continue into the end of the week. Read the Long Term Discussion for more details. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Southwesterly flow aloft will remain prevalent over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an upper- level trough over the western CONUS. A diffuse boundary will extend from the eastern New Mexico to the Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Ascent will increase over much of our area as a series of shortwave impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft moves over the diffuse surface boundary Wednesday into Thursday. An easterly to southeasterly surface flow pattern will allow low level moisture to increase with dewpoints back into the 50s and 60s over most locations along and east of the mountains. We are still expecting increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with the best rain/storm chances over locations along and east of the mountains. Increasing deep layer moisture and associated precipitable water values up to 1 to 1.4 inches will bring potential for locally heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns east of the Pecos River late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Instability may be sufficient to bring at least a Marginal severe risk to portions of our area Wednesday and Thursday. Weak shortwave ridging aloft may build over the area by Friday bringing lower rain chances Friday afternoon and evening. There will still be enough moisture and instability along the lingering boundary to maintain low (10-20%) POPs on Friday. An upper-level trough or low may pivot over the forecast area this weekend with sufficient moisture remaining in place to keep a mention of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will trend cooler Wednesday through the weekend behind the front and with the increased rain chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. However MVFR CIGs are being observed behind a cold front in the Texas Panhandle which could move into the Permian Basin 12-15Z. In addition, haze may redevelop limiting VIS to 4-5SM before the cold front arrives but will keep VIS VFR for this issuance. South to southeast winds shift from the north to northeast behind the front expected 12-16Z. Afternoon TS should remain east of all TAF sites though could affect some local flying operations. Hennig && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Well above normal temperatures, exceedingly dry conditions (both a lack of rainfall and critically low min RHs), and breezy winds will keep critical fire weather conditions in place across southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the northwest Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico Plains, and the Guadalupe Mountains through the early evening hours. Beyond today, critically low relative humidities return on Tuesday, but winds will be much lighter. The nearby dryline sharpens on Wednesday and is forced back towards the western edge of the CWA bringing strong moisture return and a chance for wetting rains for Wednesday and Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 99 70 90 60 / 0 0 40 20 Carlsbad 94 63 94 60 / 0 0 0 30 Dryden 102 72 96 67 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Stockton 100 66 97 64 / 0 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 84 60 85 59 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 93 58 90 56 / 0 0 0 30 Marfa 91 53 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 97 69 93 61 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 97 68 93 62 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 98 62 95 62 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...10  872 FXUS66 KHNX 190448 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 948 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Low relative humidities in the lower elevations of Central California brings at least a moderate risk of Fire Danger this week. 2. Warming trend throughout the week. 3. Practice safety around area lakes, rivers, and streams as water is still running cold. && .DISCUSSION... The low pressure system has moved to further eastward, so pressure gradients have relaxed. Thus, winds will be generally light and diurnal across our area. High pressure will gradually rebuild along the West Coast, and a warming trend continues on Tuesday. Highs have a moderate probability to reach 90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley on Tuesday with a higher chance Wednesday through Saturday. A low probability of a triple digit reading exists for Thursday and Friday; it is more likely that highs top into the mid to upper 90s. Temperatures across the Kern County desert will begin to warm more noticeably on Wednesday. Unfortunately, low daytime humidity will persist and lower further as we get the hotter temperatures later this week. Warmer than average temperatures persist Sunday and early next week, although with some moderation as an upper-level trough passes over the Pacific Northwest. For now, highs will remain in the lower to mid 90s at the warmest locations. Latest CPC outlooks show continued above average temperatures and near average precipitation (which is little to none during this time of year). Dry conditions persist for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low relative humidity (RH) values continue in much of the lower elevations this week. There will be threats for rapidly developing grass fires in these areas. Minimum RH values will persist as well, with most areas being under 15 percent RH. Winds are not forecasted to be as strong as they were over last weekend. A warming and drying trend will be moving into Central California later this week. The RH in the valley areas are expected to be less than 15 percent until Thursday. This leads to elevated fire weather throughout the week. Poor to moderate overnight humidity recovery will also occur for the latter part of this week. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ BSO weather.gov/hanford  995 FXUS65 KGGW 190452 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 1052 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - This morning will be cold across northeast Montana, with chances for near record lows if clouds clear out overnight. - Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning looks like the next chance for showers and perhaps and few thunderstorms. Most areas that would be hit look to have less than a tenth of an inch. - Warm weather returns briefly Wednesday with 70s & 80s for highs expected Friday onward. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Forecast begins with a large cold airmass over the Hudson Bay. a trough runs west out of it and down through southern Canadian Prairie Provinces and eastern Montana, and terminates over northern Utah. An equally amplified ridge runs from northern California the PCNW, Alberta, and terminates over the Northwest Territories. This morning through tonight: Conditions will start off cool with a ground freeze initially as clear skies hover over the area. By the late afternoon a new round of mid to upper chinook arch clouds will move in from the west along with slightly warmer temps under the highly amplified ridge. Wednesday into Thursday Morning: Ridge will exit the area as a shortwave begins to drive itself down in northwestern flow. as the ridge breaks down a low pressure surface trough will form over central Montana mid day. by the late afternoon and early evening hours this will move into eastern montana along a cold front with rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Most storms should exit overnight with the heat leaving rain showers to linger into Thursday morning. QPF totals are in flux currently unknown but generally a tenth of an inch or less is expected for this passage. Thursday afternoon into the weekend: Conditions will clear and warm through these time periods with maybe a weak shower possible Saturday night with ensemble breakdown occuring about this point forward making confidence from Saturday onward LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Changes to NBM were focused to hourly PoPs around Wednesday mid- day to the evening. Hourly NBM data was being direct interpolated in the last 5 hours. Used and NPoP blend of available CAMs to try to quick blend in a slightly better trend. GAH && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0330Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR. DISCUSSION: Overcast conditions across the east this evening are expected to exit the area by the early morning hours. A few isolated fog pockets may be possible northeast of KOLF and KSDY as clouds clear but should not impact the main terminals directly tonight. Sun-up conditions should be SKC but mid to high clouds will begin approaching the area from the west late Tuesday afternoon early evening. WIND: Light and variable tonight. Becoming S to SW after sun-up and increasing to 5 to 15 kts through Tuesday. Backing S to SE Tuesday evening. GAH && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow  002 FXUS65 KGJT 190453 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1053 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures will impact the lower basins of northwest Colorado and northeast Utah Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Freeze Warnings are in effect for both mornings. - Temperatures will start to warm Tuesday onward, finally reaching near-to-above normal levels Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1002 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Radar returns are diminishing across the area though a stray shower along the I-70 corridor and areas just north can't be ruled out. Clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop thanks to the cold front that passed through yesterday. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for the Uinta Basin and northern valleys. Portions of the I-70 corridor may reach freezing or just below but coverage and timing won't last long enough to warrant any highlights there. Same for the southern valleys. The Freeze Watch for Tuesday night into Wednesday has been upgraded to a Warning with this evening's package for the northern valleys as models have not deviated from sub-freezing temperatures there. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER, SLOW WARMUP: An upper level trough will remain draped over the area through the end of the week but with drier air moving in, little in the way of precip is expected. Might see an odd shower over the higher terrain but for the most part we can expect partly cloudy skies as below normal highs Tuesday and Wednesday reach normal values towards the end of the week and above normal highs heading into the weekend. The next chance for precipitation looks to be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning as a system drops down from the north. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 526 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Some showers and midlevel ceilings persist at this hour but precip will continue to drift northeastward this evening and overnight. Ceilings will lift as well though will likely persist for KHDN, KEGE and KASE. Despite that, VFR conditions will remain predominant though some brief MVFR can't be completely ruled out either. A few gusts of 20 to 30 kts will remain possible under and near these showers but should die down after 03Z. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ001-002. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002. UT...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  012 FXUS66 KPQR 190453 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 953 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion... .SYNOPSIS...Dry and benign weather is expected across the region through much of the next week as high pressure builds over the Northeast Pacific, resulting in a warming trend. Weak systems aloft may bring enhanced cloud cover on some days, but rain chances are minimal. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Sunday night...Concerns for hazardous weather remain minimal through the upcoming week. There is high confidence that upper-level ridging and surface high pressure will build over the Northeast Pacific, although uncertainty in the amplitude and position of the upper ridge increases later in the forecast period. Through the end of the workweek, while the ridge axis remains well offshore, upper shortwaves within northwesterly flow aloft may produce increased cloud cover on certain days including Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but chances for rainfall remain 5-10% along the Clatsop and Pacific County coasts and in the Willapa Hills, and lower elsewhere. On clearer nights, areas of fog are most likely to develop within sheltered valleys. As the ridge axis shifts east, temperatures will trend upward through at least Thursday, reaching the 60s on the coast and upper 70s to low 80s along the I-5 corridor. At this time, there is Minor HeatRisk forecast across the region, meaning those who are most sensitive to heat may be affected, however there are 15-25% chances Moderate HeatRisk occurs in some urban areas along I-5 if daytime highs end up slightly hotter, including the Portland/Vancouver metro, Salem, and Albany/Corvallis areas. Later in the forecast period, from Friday through next weekend, uncertainty in the evolution and possible break-down of the upper-level ridge introduces similar uncertainty in forecast temperatures and precipitation. Forecast daytime highs currently trend downward through the holiday weekend as chances increase that ridging deamplifies or is replaced by an upper trough, but there is an increasingly wide range of possible outcomes. The 80%-confidence envelopes (the difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles) in temperature widen from 8-13 degrees on Friday and Saturday to 16-18 degrees on Sunday and Monday along the I-5 corridor. There is greater consensus that the ridge will break down late Sunday into Monday, yielding increasing chances of cooler temperatures as well as the highest chances of rainfall, 25-50%, in over a week. -36 && .AVIATION...Currently VFR conditions throughout the airspace except for low-end MVFR CIGs at KAST as of 04Z Tue. Expect MVFR CIGs at KAST to continue through at least 06Z Wed (70-90% chance of MVFR CIGs). Additionally, There is a 30-50% chance of IFR conditions until 21-23Z Tue. Expect similar conditions for KONP, but with a 50-70% chance of MVFR CIGs and 20-30% chance of IFR CIGs until 17-19Z Tue, then gradually improving to VFR by 00Z Wed. As for inland terminals, expect mostly VFR conditions through at least 06Z Wed, but with a 20-60% chance of MVFR CIGs between 11-20Z Tue for KPDX, KHIO, and KTTD (highest chances at KTTD). Otherwise, expect light winds through at least 21Z Tue, then becoming northwesterly and increasing to around 7-10 kt inland and 9-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt at the coast. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mostly VFR conditions expected through at least 06Z Wed. Stratus pushing inland along the Columbia River could reach the metro between 11-20Z Tue, bringing a 20-40% chance for MVFR CIGs at KPDX and 40-60% chance at KTTD. ~12 && .MARINE... Northerlies are expected to persist through much of the week as the summer-like pattern settles in. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon and evening periods as a surface thermal trough strengthens over the southern Oregon coast. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the inner coastal waters south of Cape Foulweather OR this evening for gusts up to 25 kt. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday. Seas around 6 to 8 feet are expected through the week as well. Chances increase on Wednesday and Thursday for more widespread wind gusts for all marine zones. Small Craft Advisories is in place for the Columbia River Bar for early Tuesday morning due to strong ebb currents which will produce conditions hazardous to small craft. Strong ebb currents are possible during the morning hours each day this week. -19/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ253. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  046 FXUS61 KBGM 190454 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong high pressure will maintain hot and humid conditions today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and into the evening. 2) A cold front will push through the area tonight into tomorrow, bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Much more seasonable temperatures return for the rest of the week and into the weekend. 3) Memorial Day Weekend could have active weather with seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Strong Bermuda high pressure off the East Coast, along with the backside of an upper level ridge over the region, will continue to strengthen southwest flow and warm air advection. As a result, hot and humid conditions persist today, with highs climbing into the mid 80s to lowers 90s and dew points remaining in the mid to upper 60s. With the ridge axis positioned east of the area, the region will remain in a more favorable environment for thunderstorm development from late morning into the evening hours. Model soundings show afternoon CAPE values generally under 1000 J/Kg with the NAM having the highest value. Otherwise mid level lapse rates are around 5-6 C/KM with 0-6 KM bulk shear values near 30-40 knots, especially across the northwestern portion of the forecast area. One feature that may help initiate storms is a shortwave moving across Ontario and dipping into the region. CAM guidance continues to indicate pop up showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon, though the severe potential will largely depend on the extent of cloud cover through the morning and whether it lingers into the afternoon hours. Greater clearing by late morning would support increased instability, leading to better thunderstorm coverage and a higher severe threat. A more organized line of showers and thunderstorms is then expected to move through this evening and overnight along the approaching cold front. Temperatures today will once again approach previous set records, though increasing cloud cover ahead of the cold front may keep highs slightly lower than yesterday. Overnight a stronger temperature gradient will develop as the cold front approaches from the northwest. Lows across the northwestern portion of the area area expected to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s, while northeast PA remains miler with lows in the mid to upper 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold front moves northwest to southeast tonight into tomorrow morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along and ahead of the boundary. There remains some uncertainty regarding overall coverage and rainfall amounts, as initial showers will be moving into the very dry air mass that has dominated the region over the past several days. With the front moving through the western portion of the area overnight into tomorrow morning instability is expected to remain fairly limited, especially across the northwestern portion of the forecast area where cooler air arrives first. Cooler highs are expected across the Finger Lakes region, while hot and humid conditions linger longer over the southeastern portion of the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop tomorrow afternoon, the better chance for that setup would mainly be across the Wyoming Valley and Pocono Mountain region where instability will be more favorable. Otherwise instability across much of the area appears rather limited. Colder air will once again filter into the region through the remainder of the week with highs mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. High pressure then builds in the area, bringing dry conditions through Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3... Looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend, model guidance pushes an upper level ridge into our region by Saturday with southwest flow returning. This pattern looks to pull moisture up into the east coast from the Gulf. This should allow chances showers to return. An upper level low feature looks to move in from the west sometime Sunday night into Monday with additional shower chance before a weak ridge builds in behind it. If this feature pushes east quickly then a weak ridge could build into the region by Monday afternoon and evening. With the forecast being further out, there is some uncertainty in model guidance for how the pattern will evolve. Temperatures however look to gradually improve over the weekend with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s by Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overall VFR conditions are forecast through 00Z Wednesday, though with at least isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon. A rogue shower or storm cannot totally be ruled out even tonight, but the chances are somewhat better Tuesday afternoon. However, confidence is far too low to include mention in specific TAFs, but it would be reasonable to anticipate brief restrictions if a cell actually impacts a terminal. Increased southwesterly flow just off the surface overnight, versus a very light airport wind, will pose marginal low level wind shear conditions for a time at KELM-KITH-KSYR- KRME. LLWS will be gone before daybreak, and then during the day Tuesday, surface winds will mix down with gusts of 15-20 knots. Outlook: Tuesday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves through the area. Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night through Saturday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions. && .CLIMATE... Near record highs expected Today. Below are the current records and forecasted temperatures for Today. Today/Tuesday... KBGM - 87 degrees, reached in 1962 and 1996 (forecast 87) KSYR - 92 degrees, set in 1971 (forecast 90) KAVP - 92 degrees,set in 1962 (forecast 92) && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ES/JTC AVIATION...MDP CLIMATE...MDP  093 FXUS64 KAMA 190455 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Frontal passage tonight will bring breezy winds and a directional shift from SW to N. - Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Wednesday and extending through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The cold front is making its way through the northern CWA, and pushing through about 30 minutes to an hour quicker than model guidance suggested. This front will bring a shift from WSW winds to N winds, with sustained speeds of 25-30 MPH and gusts up to 35-40 MPH. Although the front will bring with it breezy winds, relative humidities on the back side of the front will increase. Current observations show the jump from single digit RH's to 50-70%, with a delay of about 20 minutes between the wind shift and beneficial RH's arriving. Tonight, the front will continue to push south through the Panhandles, and is expected to reach Amarillo around 11 PM to 12 AM. Winds will remain breezy behind the front until Tuesday late morning/afternoon, where an easterly wind shift and lacking upper- level support will allow wind speeds to decrease. High temperatures for Tuesday will fall slightly below seasonal averages, ranging from the high 60's in the NW CWA to high 70's in the southern CWA. Cloud cover is expected to build into the Panhandles Tuesday night thanks to easterly flow bringing low-level moisture. The SE corner of our CWA could see some spotty rain showers Tuesday night from precipitation backbuilding along the cold front, however, as of now chances are quite low (around 10%) that it reaches that far. Although precipitation is expected Wednesday, the current uncertainty lies in cloud cover throughout the day. If upsloping flow is enough forcing, steep lapse rates to our west could allow for precipitation to make it into our CWA. However, widespread cloud cover could dampen instability in an already recovering environment, which is currently our failure point for Wednesday. While POPs currently reflect 50-60% chances CWA-wide, more certainty in timing and intensity will be gained as CAMs start to reach the event. Ferguson && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Further surface low developments beneath the upper-level SW flow bring the Panhandles persistent rain chances every afternoon/evening until Saturday. Shortwave troughs could intermittently provide upper- level support to upsloping flow and weak surface lows. Given this would provide This could provide just enough bulk-shear over decent instability (consistently around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) to provide the area with a low-end severe threat for any of those days in that period. Long-range model guidance is pointing toward a weak frontal passage on Saturday, that could knock down temperatures into next weekend as well. Ferguson && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 BLDU expected to persist until around 1-2Z, but as winds decrease around sunset, risk for BLDU should as well. winds are expected to calm down from current conditions until a frontal passage, which will turn winds from WSW to N and increase wind speeds to 20-25 kts sustained gusting to 30-35 kts. BLDU is expected to occur with the frontal passage as well, as we have received reports of dust being picked up by the front. TAFs reflect this with BLDU at each TAF site at the associated time the front is expected to move through. After the front passes, winds are expected to turn E near the end of the TAF period. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ001>020-317. OK...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...23  131 FXUS63 KUNR 190455 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1055 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold temperatures overnight with freeze/frost headlines - Gradual warmup mid-week with increasing precipitation chances for Thursday/Friday - Sharp warmup for the weekend into early next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 919 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Going forecast in pretty good shape. Clouds are starting to breakup as leftover diurnal showers wane per shortwave moving into the upper Midwest. This will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s over much of the CWA overnight, covered by Freeze/Frost headlines. A warming trend begins tomorrow and peaks over the weekend. Weak disturbance and a bit of buoyancy may pop weak convection Wednesday with better chances Thursday/Friday as stronger disturbances rotate through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Ensemble spreads tight, but then diverge a little for the weekend into early next week, but most paint a sharp warmup in line with flat upper ridge/westerly downslope flow. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 128 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Water Vapor and upper air models show troughing just east of the Rockies running through the northern and central plains, with upper ridges over the New England region and off the west coast. 19Z surface analysis depicts a surface low to our east over MN, surface high over central MT. Radar shows widespread precipitation across the forecast area, with some of the higher elevations receiving light accumulations of snow today. Winds are currently breezy out of the northwest to north, with temperatures in the 30s to low 40s. Precipitation will taper off from west to east late afternoon through the evening, as trough slides eastward today. Cool temperatures continue tonight as clouds clear up and light northwest winds continue. Much of the area is expected to reach near or below freezing overnight. HREF probability for temps to reach at or below freezing sit at 80-100% for areas from the Black Hills and west. Further east will be a bit trickier as cloud cover will linger into tonight as the trough slowly shifts eastward. A Freeze warning has been issued for most of our plains areas, with a frost advisory in effect for part of south-central SD for Tuesday morning. Brief and weak ridge sets over the region mid-week, resulting in drier conditions and a warming trend towards near seasonable. Another wave rides southeast from western Canada towards the northern plains later in the week, increasing chances for precipitation late Thursday into Friday. Shortwave ridging moves over the weekend, bringing warmer temps back in as well. By Sunday/Monday the region should see highs climb back into the 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued At 1055 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Some low clouds remain in the area tonight as the earlier precipitation moves out. Ceilings will slowly improve through the night. For KRAP, cloud base will be around 5kft at the start of the forecast period (06Z) and lifting. Relatively calm winds and IFR conditions are expected for Tuesday. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Tuesday for SDZ001-002-012>014- 025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078. Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for SDZ046-047. WY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ054>056-058>060. && $$ UPDATE...Helgeson DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...Schweigert  233 FXUS63 KPAH 190458 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1158 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy today with thunderstorms continuing through the afternoon and early evening (40-70% chance), and limited potential for a few strong to severe storms. - High rain chances (70-90%) from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. A few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain are possible. - Daily rain chances continue through the rest of the week and weekend (Thursday is the driest) with cooler late week highs in the 70s to near 80. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Training showers and thunderstorms continue to brush against the northern edge of the Quad State, tracking east-northeastward. Separately, scattered showers and thunderstorms have tracked northeastward through the Quad State late morning through the present and should continue the rest of the afternoon to early evening as an impulse from Texas moves through. CAMs continue to vary on development, with the HRRR eager to generate storms from the impulse, while the ARW favors a Missouri MCS early evening. Current radar presentation suggests the Missouri convection tracks near/along I-64 while the impulse tracks near the Ohio River. MLCAPE is up to 1500-2500J/kg while effective bulk shear is 20-30kts. Dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s are accompanied by PWs of 1.8-2.0in. A marginal risk covers much of the Quad State with a sliver of a slight in the far north, and some strong storms are likely to develop, but severe weather is more limited. A Lake Wind Advisory remains though, of the primary lakes, only Lake Barkley/Kentucky Lake have avoided the off and on showers/storms. Models agree on an overnight MCS in Missouri weakening on approach late tonight with limited PoPs in the west Tuesday morning. Redevelopment on residual boundaries, or a new MCS, are varied across models making timing difficult. One the environment following this afternoon/evening becomes known, it will help shape model assessment of development tomorrow. More commonly in the models at the moment, a band of storms pushes eastward late Tuesday into the evening with an evening/overnight cold frontal passage. PW values remains high, with continued very warm temperatures as highs surge to the upper 80s again. Plenty of CAPE will be available but shear is even more limited than today and will be a limiting factor. A slight risk covers most of the Quad State. When it comes to rainfall, some models produce a max along the Ohio River into SWIN with heavy development and training from the Texas sourced impulse today. Otherwise, models focus on the training showers/storms in the north that have progressed into the I-64 corridor. Heavy rainfall in either of these zones is possible today, but antecedent dry conditions will keep flooding potential limited for today. As for tomorrow, models don't tend to show much of any training but, should any occur over areas which receive decent rainfall today, flooding issues can develop. A cold front moves through Tuesday evening resulting in much colder conditions for the rest of the workweek. Highs drop to the mid 70s to near 80 Wednesday through Friday while midweek lows drop to the 50s. Temperatures trend slowly warmer late week into the weekend. Active weather remains in the forecast as the front stalls near enough to the Quad State Wednesday for some showers and possibly a few storms (mainly in the south). Thursday has the driest ensemble as high pressure moves through the Great Lakes but outliers exist such as the GFS which tracks a small surface low through Western Kentucky. Thefront is more likely to push back north Friday as better model agreement yields likely- categorical PoPs. The boundary could help with producing some strong to severe storms but confidence is low at this time. Continued upper flow from the southwest will keep rain chances in through the weekend. LREF 7-day rainfall has a 25th-75th percentile spread of 1.5-3 inches, which would help with ongoing drought. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected into Tuesday morning, except a brief period of BKN005 possible at KEVV/KOWB between 08z-11z. Shra/tsra will spread across the TAF sites between 17z-21z persisting through the end of the TAF period, again accompanied by MVFR conditions, especially vsbys. Winds tonight will range from variable around 5kts to south at 5-10 kts, becoming southwest by 13z-15z and increasing to 10-15kts with gusts around 20kts. Stronger winds possible with tsra. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...ATL DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...RST