350 FXUS65 KPUB 190500 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1100 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme fire danger continues across our southern plains through early evening, with southwest winds gusting 45 to 50 mph and humidity values in the single digits. - Heightened travel concerns due to 50-60 mph winds over the mountains and southern portions of the area, with blowing dust over the San Luis Valley and southern plains, and blowing snow over the mountains. - Showers continue across the Pikes Peak region with snow levels dropping down to 6500 feet under the heavier snow showers through this evening. Any accumulations will be light, slushy and brief. - Frost and freezes expected for much of the southeast plains tonight, with the coldest readings across El Paso County - Cooler and wetter weather is expected for all areas through mid week with another drying trend for next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 607 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Across the San Luis Valley, winds have steadily lessened, and are expected to continue this trend heading into the evening. Given this, blowing dust is no longer expected, and the Blowing Dust Advisory that was in place has been allowed to expire on time. Across the far southern plains, the cold front that has been in place just south of Highway 50 through the day has finally surged southward and pushed into New Mexico and the Oklahoma Panhandle. While gusty northerly winds are expected for another few hours, humidity values have greatly increased, with observations reading 45-55% humidity across the region. Given this, the Red Flag Warnings in place across Las Animas and Baca Counties have been cancelled early. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Potent upper trough ejecting across CO is bringing a wide range of weather conditions to southern CO, from low clouds, fog, and rain and snow showers with embedded thunder across the mountains and Pikes Peak region, to strong winds and high fire danger across southern sections of the area. The cold front has been stubborn through the morning but winds across southern Baca county have shifted from the south in the past hour and will get gustier through the afternoon as the upper trough ejects to the northeast and the surface low across southern sections of the area ejects eastward. Still looks like gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with humidity levels dropping below 10 percent. This will bring a period of critical to extreme fire weather conditions before the front drops southward to the southern border by 7 PM and humidity levels increase. Current Red Flag Warnings still look on target. Will need to watch closely for blowing dust which could reduce visibility to under a mile at times near plowed fields or areas with loose soil conditions. Across the San Luis Valley, a brief hit of high winds occurred close to 11 AM which prompted the issuance of a High Wind Warning for southern and central portions of the valley. This occurred as the upper jet moves across. Window for strong winds has passed and High Wind Warnings were taken down around 2 PM. Winds will remain gusty to around 40 mph for a few more hours yet. Dust Storm Warnings were downgraded to Blowing Dust Advisories based on conditions in area webcams. Otherwise, north of the cold front along the Arkansas River, temperatures have stayed cooler as clouds have been slow to erode. Best chance of showers for the Pikes Peak region will be this afternoon through early evening and snow levels could locally drop down to 6500 feet under the heavier convective snow bursts. Any accumulations should remain light, melting as it falls due to the warm ground surface. Some ice pellets or graupelcould occur under the convective bursts as well but these should be brief. Then stratus will deepen, lower, and spread back southward behind the cold front through the evening. Upslope against the mountains could cause a narrow ribbon of fog and even drizzle along the lower eastern and southern slopes. Concerns then turn towards freezing temperatures and frost conditions across the plains as temperatures behind the front drop into the 30s. Fortunately, we have some clouds and wind to help keep temperatures up slightly, but up against the higher terrain and northern portions of the plains could see temperatures near or a little below freezing with the potential for some frost if some pockets of clearing occur towards morning. Greatest concern is northern El Paso county where a Freeze Warning has been issued. Have gone with frost advisories elsewhere as temperatures will get close to the freezing mark. This is a conservative Frost Advisory, erring on the side of caution given the late season timing of this event. Hopefully not all this area will receive a widespread frost, but protect tender plants if possible. Tuesday will be a quieter day, starting out cloudy in the morning with clearing skies through late morning and afternoon. Easterly upslope flow on the plains will keep higher dew points pinned up against the mountains, with afternoon heating acting on it to generate some showers and thunderstorms over the mountains which will drift off into the adjacent plains. Instability is not all that great and think embedded thunder will be more isolated in coverage. Some overrunning Tuesday night may keep showers going across the southeast mountains and Pikes Peak region as the next upper trough moves into the Great Basin and weak waves eject to the northeast ahead of it. Overall, no fire weather concerns to note as temperatures will be cooler, humidity values higher, and winds lighter. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A cooler and active weather pattern continues through mid week with a series of upper troughs moving across CO. The first one moves across on Wednesday. A little better instability may be present for Wednesday over the mountains, but dew point return is still modest in some models as they increase into the 40s across the plains in the NAM but into the low 50s in the GFS. CIN across the plains should keep it stable with showers and thunderstorms dissipating as they move eastward across the plains, though another round of overrunning may spread some showers across the plains Wednesday night. Thursday could be a more widespread severe weather day for the southeast mountains and plains as southerly return flow advects 50 dew points back into the plains. CAPE could increase to over 1000 J/kg with deep layer shears around 40 kts. We may also have some good forcing as a trough drops in from the northwest in the afternoon. Will have to watch this day closely for severe thunderstorm potential across the plains, but at least the higher humidity values should keep critical fire weather conditions at bay. Friday will be cooler and perhaps more stable behind the front with afternoon showers and thunderstorms confined to the mountains and along the surface front to the south. Warmer and drier weather returns next weekend with at least some isolated thunderstorms possible over and near the mountains both days. -KT && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1059 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 KCOS and KPUB: MVFR conditions are expected tonight as thick, low level clouds fill in over the TAF sites, and again at the end of this TAF period. VFR conditions are expected to return late Tuesday morning and through a majority of the afternoon. Looking at winds, winds will continue to lessen tonight to at or less than 10 knots. Winds will see a slight uptick in magnitude tomorrow, and while an occasional gust to around 20 knots is possible, consistent gusty winds are not anticipated. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected tonight, though brief periods of light drizzle can not be ruled out for KCOS. Dry conditions continue into tomorrow afternoon, though with persistent rain then developing during the later portions of this TAF period. KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds tonight will quickly increase by late tomorrow morning, and remain gusty through the rest of the TAF period, with peak gusts during the afternoon hours as diurnal mixing becomes established. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will increase in coverage tomorrow afternoon and evening, with showers potentially impacting the TAF site, though the greatest coverage of showers is expected to remain east of the TAF site. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Critical fire weather conditions will continue into the early evening across Las Animas and Baca counties. Gusts up to 50 mph and critically low humidity values will lead to critical to extreme fire weather conditions. The cold front will push back into the southern CO/NM/OK border areas towards 7 PM which will bring a sharp wind shift from the north with gusts up to 40 mph. But this will also bring an increase in humidity levels. Current Red Flag Warnings continue until 8 PM to account for the wind shift and any slight delay in humidity recovery. It is possible these may be able to be cancelled sooner if the frontal passage and humidity recovery is quicker. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ084. Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ085>089-094>096. && $$ UPDATE...SIMCOE SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...SIMCOE FIRE WEATHER...KT  554 FXUS61 KBGM 190503 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 103 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong high pressure will maintain hot and humid conditions today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and into the evening. 2) A cold front will push through the area tonight into tomorrow, bringing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Much more seasonable temperatures return for the rest of the week and into the weekend. 3) Memorial Day Weekend could have active weather with seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Strong Bermuda high pressure off the East Coast, along with the backside of an upper level ridge over the region, will continue to strengthen southwest flow and warm air advection. As a result, hot and humid conditions persist today, with highs climbing into the mid 80s to lowers 90s and dew points remaining in the mid to upper 60s. With the ridge axis positioned east of the area, the region will remain in a more favorable environment for thunderstorm development from late morning into the evening hours. Model soundings show afternoon CAPE values generally under 1000 J/Kg with the NAM having the highest value. Otherwise mid level lapse rates are around 5-6 C/KM with 0-6 KM bulk shear values near 30-40 knots, especially across the northwestern portion of the forecast area. One feature that may help initiate storms is a shortwave moving across Ontario and dipping into the region. CAM guidance continues to indicate pop up showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon, though the severe potential will largely depend on the extent of cloud cover through the morning and whether it lingers into the afternoon hours. Greater clearing by late morning would support increased instability, leading to better thunderstorm coverage and a higher severe threat. A more organized line of showers and thunderstorms is then expected to move through this evening and overnight along the approaching cold front. Temperatures today will once again approach previous set records, though increasing cloud cover ahead of the cold front may keep highs slightly lower than yesterday. Overnight a stronger temperature gradient will develop as the cold front approaches from the northwest. Lows across the northwestern portion of the area area expected to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s, while northeast PA remains miler with lows in the mid to upper 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold front moves northwest to southeast tonight into tomorrow morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along and ahead of the boundary. There remains some uncertainty regarding overall coverage and rainfall amounts, as initial showers will be moving into the very dry air mass that has dominated the region over the past several days. With the front moving through the western portion of the area overnight into tomorrow morning instability is expected to remain fairly limited, especially across the northwestern portion of the forecast area where cooler air arrives first. Cooler highs are expected across the Finger Lakes region, while hot and humid conditions linger longer over the southeastern portion of the region. If thunderstorms are able to develop tomorrow afternoon, the better chance for that setup would mainly be across the Wyoming Valley and Pocono Mountain region where instability will be more favorable. Otherwise instability across much of the area appears rather limited. Colder air will once again filter into the region through the remainder of the week with highs mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. High pressure then builds in the area, bringing dry conditions through Friday. KEY MESSAGE 3... Looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend, model guidance pushes an upper level ridge into our region by Saturday with southwest flow returning. This pattern looks to pull moisture up into the east coast from the Gulf. This should allow chances showers to return. An upper level low feature looks to move in from the west sometime Sunday night into Monday with additional shower chance before a weak ridge builds in behind it. If this feature pushes east quickly then a weak ridge could build into the region by Monday afternoon and evening. With the forecast being further out, there is some uncertainty in model guidance for how the pattern will evolve. Temperatures however look to gradually improve over the weekend with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s by Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected at all terminals for the 06z TAF period. LLWS at a few Central NY terminals through 07-09z. Outlook: Tuesday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible as a frontal boundary moves through the area. Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night through Saturday...Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms likely along with associated restrictions. && .CLIMATE... Near record highs expected Today. Below are the current records and forecasted temperatures for Today. Today/Tuesday... KBGM - 87 degrees, reached in 1962 and 1996 (forecast 87) KSYR - 92 degrees, set in 1971 (forecast 90) KAVP - 92 degrees,set in 1962 (forecast 92) && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ES/JTC AVIATION...KL CLIMATE...MDP  515 FXUS63 KFSD 190502 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1202 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pockets of drizzle will continue through Tuesday morning with mainly light accumulations expected. - Areas of frost or freeze will be possible by Wednesday morning, with the better chances north of I-90. Make sure to cover/bring in any sensitive vegetation. - Cooler conditions will prevail this week. Dry weather expected mid week. Another round of storms will be possible from Thursday through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 While the main severe risk has now pushed east of our area this evening, scattered light to moderate showers will likely persist into the late evening as a mid-level wave lifts through eastern SD and central MN tonight. Given the waning mid-level saturation and lower cloud heights according to sounding, can't rule out a few pockets of drizzle through Tuesday morning as well. While this could lead to persistent dreary conditions overnight, any accumulations will likely be on the lower side with another 0.10" of an inch or less expected for most areas. Otherwise, should see cloud cover begin to gradually clear from west to east starting by Tuesday morning. With lingering cold air advection (CAA) aloft and breezy northwesterly winds at the surface, expected another cool day with highs mainly in the low to upper 50s. With this in mind, make sure to take a jacket when heading out on Tuesday as the cooler and breezier conditions could make things feel a bit chilly at times especially during the first half of the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Early this afternoon the surface to 925 mb front was across southern NE into southern IA. Given the marginal strength of the incoming wave, this boundary should not lift far enough north and west by late afternoon to get into the area. This should limit any wind and tornado threats and keep them off to the southeast. However, some elevated hailers will remain possible across mainly northwest IA as elevated CAPE values ramp up to about 1000-1500 J/KG and deep layer shear is a fairly strong, unidirectional 40-50 knots. This would be lifting a parcel from above the stratus layer, which would likely be in about the 800-750mb layer. The better chances will be from about 5 pm to 9 pm. After this wave pushes the remaining instability out of the area this evening, dry and cool conditions are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. The only concerns on these two days will be the potential for frost and freeze conditions, mostly north of I-90, as surface high pressure is in place. Another weaker wave moves through the area on Wednesday but for now this appears to bring mainly mid level cloud cover. The next better chance for showers and thunderstorms will come Thursday night into Friday night. At this time severe weather looks to remain isolated as model instability fields are hinting at 1000 J/kg CAPE or less for the most part. Once this wave passes a warming trend should move in as flat ridging aloft develops ahead of a deepening low pressure in the Northern Rockies. Saturday should be mild, likely in the 70s, while Sunday sees the better chance to warm into the 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Mainly MVFR to IFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, areas of MVFR to LIFR stratus continue to blanket the area with a few pockets of drizzle. While these conditions will likely persist in the overnight hours, should see gradual improvements from west to east by mid-morning on Tuesday returning things back to VFR conditions. Lastly, breezy northwesterly winds will persist intermittently through Tuesday evening to end the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...05 DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...05  599 FXUS64 KHUN 190504 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1204 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Low to medium chances (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms return late Tuesday. - Medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms then persist each day from Wednesday through much of the weekend. No severe weather is forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Tonight and Tuesday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Currently watching as a few showers/storms, remnants of outflow boundaries to our south, move from central Alabama up into Cullman County. These may eventually progress into Morgan and Marshall counties late this evening if they hold together. Overall, not anticipating much out of this activity other than some light rainfall and perhaps some lightning (no severe weather). With the loss of daytime heating, these are forecast to gradually dissipate over the next hour or so, as has been the trend the last several radar scans. Otherwise, expect a warmer night as lows only decrease into the upper 60s to lower 70s (cooler over the higher terrain of northeast Alabama). Confidence is low in the occurrence any patchy fog development, with winds around 5 knots continuing overnight and clouds on the increase later tonight as well. Upper level southwest flow will continue on Tuesday, along with surface high pressure to the east over the Carolinas. Although, an cold front looks to progress over the mid-Mississippi River Valley by late afternoon. There are very low chances (less than 10%) of showers and storms over far northwest Alabama Tuesday afternoon. In fact, with the cold front expected to still be well to our west by late afternoon, most shower and storm activity should hold off until the evening. Therefore, partly cloudy skies will continue yet again tomorrow with warm temperatures - highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees! && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Southwest flow will persist aloft through late week, with subtle shortwaves rippling along the flow during this time. In addition, the aforementioned surface cold front over the Mississippi River Valley will slowly progress southeast over the Tennessee Valley. This feature looks to then meander over the region for several days (through late week). This overall pattern will keep daily chances (50-90%) of showers and storms in the forecast from midweek into the weekend. To put the wet conditions into perspective, model PWATs generally range between 1.5-1.8 inches through the short term period. When compared with Sounding Climatology from Birmingham, these values are right around to just over the 90th percentile (1.6 inches) for May 20th and 21st. Therefore, showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. With daily rain chances through late week, we'll need to keep an eye on which areas receive rainfall and if it's repetitive, which would increase the localized flood risk. Currently, the Weather Prediction Center has most of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee in a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall and this continues through late week. Remember, if you encounter flooded roads, Turn Around Don't Drown! As for the potential for any severe storms, while instability looks to be sufficient, confidence is low in the development of severe storms due to the continuing trend of low bulk shear values by guidance (especially on Wednesday). The main concerns are more likely to be lightning and localized flooding through Thursday. As for temperatures, the increased rain chances will temper values, resulting in highs only reaching the lower to mid 80s by Thursday.Lows will generally remain in the 60s, due to elevated moisture. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A more summerlike pattern will persist through the Day 4-7 period as 5h ridging builds farther into the southeast U.S. and eastern Gulf of America. Southwesterly flow will persist northwest of the ridge, maintaining a moist flow of air into the Gulf States, particularly in the lower MS Valley where 2.0+ inch PWs will reside. Although, there is a corridor of slightly lower values in the 1.5-1.8 inch range over AL into eastern and middle TN, with higher values farther east across the FL peninsula through GA and the Carolinas. Multiple weak impulses will lift northeast through this period, with medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms each day (diurnally inflated due to heating). High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows in the 60s. Dew points will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the period. After sunrise, winds will become gusty out of the SSW between 15-20 kts. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...AMP.24  782 FXUS61 KPBZ 190508 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 108 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... On the whole, the forecast remains unchanged, except for higher confidence in an 8p to 2a arrival of storms in northwest PA and eastern Ohio Tuesday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heat impacts for sensitive populations continue early this week, with temperatures up to the upper-80s to low-90s. 2) Conditional terrain/lake driven severe chances today, highest severe chances tomorrow evening for NW PA and east OH, and conditional severe threats Wednesday SE of Pittsburgh with departing front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The 12Z surface analysis has the 587dm height line draped across the area, which generally suggests that upper 80s are most likely for highs today. A non-BC model like the LREF and HREF, generally agree, with the 25th-75th percentile spreads narrow and generally between 86F and 90F. With high confidence in mostly clear skies for most today, its possible these deterministic high tend toward the higher end of the non-BC distribution. So this would generally mean temperatures near-90, with some 90s possible with urban and river-valley terrain influence. Some "cooler spots" into the low-to-mid 80s are favored for high terrain and north of I-80. Highs today will be within a few degrees of record highs for all climate sites. The HREF only alludes to temperatures dropping into the mid-to- upper 60s, which will provide little chance for temperature recovery overnight. This will challenge a few "max-low temperature" records. Mean heights may drop slightly Tuesday with the beginning of a ridge breakdown. Additionally, more mid- moisture will also allow for more cloud cover. All in all, temperatures may be a degree or two cooler in areas that do not see rain, but cumulative heat stress continues. So upper-80s, are again favored for most. The NWS heat risk shows mostly a moderate risk Monday into Tuesday, whereby heat may generally impact the most sensitive populations. Make sure to stay hydrated or monitor for signs of heat illness if spending excessive time outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 2... All of the area will be under the northern periphery of the ridge axis today, with corresponding subsidence enforcing mid- level capping. While diurnal cumulus are developing, as we continue to mix into a dry layer (evidenced on 12Z sounding from 750mb to 600mb), we expect most vertical development to be limited. There's a couple exceptions that will need to be addressed. First will be the high terrain. With ridge-top convergence in mostly NE flow aloft, we coudn't rule out a storm firing in an environment of 1000-1200 DCAPE, which could certainty carry a conditional downburst wind threat in the low probability this happens. Consistently, the highest chance of development has been eastern Tucker County, but with NW flow aloft, the thought would be that the highest risk would be to the east for the forecast area. The second area would be a conditional threat of storm development on a lake breeze this afternoon. This is lower confidence, but should it occur, the same downburst threat is possible, with outflow potentially carrying development into NW Pennsylvania. Both threats are conditional on development (<30% chance), but should development occur, damaging wind risks would increase substantially. A ridge breakdown begins Tuesday, with afternoon storm development in western Ohio likely. The most likely timing of this appears late- day. There's a bit of a conditional risk from 20Z to 00Z, but the current thought is that capping will be too strong to let the environment utilize the ~1500 to 2500 MUCAPE for "bubble-up" convection in NW PA in the afternoon. Later, some combination of outflow from the Ohio convection on a pre-frontal trough and/or a lake breeze will make convection more likely in the 00Z to 06Z window. Since this timing is mostly after sunset, storms are expected to have a decaying trend as they enter the area, but they certainty could be strong enough to produce wind gusts up to 60mph, most likely for the I-80 corridor with DCAPE of 900 to 1000, with threats also possible into eastern Ohio. Convective intensity is expected to wain overnight as the parent cold front moves in, but some isolated showers/storms remain possible. Wednesday will bring more of a conditional severe threat southeast of Pittsburgh, with the main uncertainty being 1) frontal timing and 2) cloud cover. In a scenario with a slower front and limited cloud cover, recovery of instability and a limited severe threat is possible for northern WV and far SW PA. But should the front be faster or clouds complicate instability generation, severe threats are lower. Severe chances taper over the next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR is expected through much of the day as mid and high clouds continue to increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Model soundings and the CU rule indicate scattered cumulus clouds should develop by mid morning with surface heating. There is a potential for a shower or thunderstorm to affect a few airports from late morning into early afternoon with leftover boundaries from earlier convection to our west, though this potential is limited, and too low for TAF inclusion at this time. In addition, SW wind is expected to gust to around 20kt during the day with mixing. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to track across Ohio late this afternoon and evening in advance of an approaching cold front. It appears that the instability should be diminishing as these storms advance eastward, with an overall weakening trend by late evening. Included prob30 mentions for most sites across Ohio and western PA, from mid to late evening as these storms approach. Outlook... Restrictions and showers are likely by late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the cold front slowly crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. A few thunderstorms are also possible. Restrictions are possible mainly south of PIT Wednesday night and Thursday as a wave of low pressure tracks along the front. Restrictions and showers return from S-N Friday into Saturday as a warm front lifts north across the area. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Milcarek AVIATION...WM  817 FXUS63 KIWX 190509 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 109 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are anticipated again Tuesday afternoon and evening, with all hazards possible. - Warm and humid through Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. - Cooler with seasonable temperatures and dry midweek. Highs only in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1014 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Main focus this forecast period is on the severe potential for today and on Tuesday. For today, seems the one limiting factor for today's storms will be the available shear, with values of Bulk Shear is around 20 to 30 kts, this should keep organization of storms minimal and current convective allowing guidance and thinking points to a more linear feature moving northeastward into the area over the next couple of hours from central IL. A plume of dew points in the mid 60s is pushing northeastward ahead of the convection currently pushing across central IL. Surface based CAPE values will run about 2000 to 2500 J/kg over the CWA. With environmental profiles drier near the surface and a moist plume maxing out around 850 mb this creates an inverted-V sounding which is indicative of gusty outflows/winds with thunderstorms this is further illustrated with Downdraft CAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Storm relative helicity values look to remain below the 100 m2/s2 threshold but there is the possibility for an isolated tornado or two. This first batch of storms will move through after Noon EDT and push through the area into this evening til around the 8 PM EDT timeframe. Moderate to heavy rainfall will accompany these storms with precipitable water value sitting around 1.70 inches. Of course, the storm motion speed will be important as if the line moves through quicker that will limit the rainfall amounts but either way looks like we should get a pretty good slug of rain with today's event as trailing stratiform will bring some moderate steady rainfall behind the initial line of thunderstorms as it pushes eastward through the area. Storm totals over the next two days looks to see some areas seeing close to an inch of new rainfall. A break in the action takes place tonight into the overnight period before the better looking set up arrives tomorrow in the form of a cold front associated with a low pressure circulation centered over northern WI. SB CAPE values will be around 1500-2500 J/kg, surface dew points will get into the upper 60s with a few locations seeing lower 70s, bulk shear values 30-40 kts, and mid level lapse rates around 6 deg/km and helicity values of 100-200 m2/s2. At this time it looks as if all threats will be on the table with the better helicity and shear values associated with the close proximity of the frontal boundary that will push eastward through the area. The exact timing is still a bit hazy but current indications have the frontal boundary approaching the western portions of our CWA around 1 PM EDT and exiting the area by early morning Wednesday. SPC currently has our entire area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Tuesday. Heavy to moderate rainfall will once again be possible with the thunderstorms and as stated earlier that around 1 inch of new rainfall will be possible with these two batches of storms and locally heavier amounts if the residence times of thunderstorms linger. In the wake of the cold front a more zonal flow develops over the region on Wednesday and cooler and drier conditions will arrive. Highs on Wednesday will only get into the 60s which is about a 20 degree drop from the 80s today and Tuesday. Upper level ridging begins to push into the region by Thursday and will start to see a gradual increase in temperatures into the weekend.Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 70s. Sunday into the beginning of next week highs will return int 80s. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also increase over the weekend and at this time the best chances will be Friday afternoon and evening with a trough pushing through the area but periods of showers/t-storms will be possible each day into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 106 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will continue through midday. Winds have diminished to around 10 kts for now, but will quickly ramp up after sunrise and through the morning hours. Breezy southwesterly winds will gust as high as 30 kts today, even outside of any showers or storms. An approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and storms today, but confidence is low on exactly where. The strongest storms may end up east of IN-15 towards KFWA, but have maintained a PROB30 at KSBN for 17-20Z and a few hours later at KFWA from 19-22Z. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible within any storms. The main threats today will be heavy rain and damaging wind gusts up to 50kts. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Fisher  042 FXUS62 KTAE 190510 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 110 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 108 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected through mid week. There is a high chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without cooling/hydration. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through the next few days with coverage increasing late week into the weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that develop. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Sunday) Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Scattered showers and storms are beginning to develop over the Florida Panhandle early this afternoon. This should continue for the remainder of the day over mainly inland parts of the Panhandle into portions of southeast Alabama. Some of the storms this afternoon could produce strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph, locally heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. These will fade during the early to mid part of the evening with a warm and muggy night ahead. Lows area-wide will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday through Thursday, there will be less coverage of showers and storms overall as strong ridging builds overhead and PWATs decrease a bit. Rain chances are at most around 20-30% each day. It will be very hot, however, by May standards. Highs will be in the low to potentially mid 90s for much of the area over the next 3 days with some areas seeing heat index values nearing 100 for the first time this year. This level of heat could affect those who are sensitive to heat, such as the elderly, those with chronic health conditions, or those without access to adequate cooling or hydration. By late in the week into the weekend, the ridging will begin to shift a little bit more to the east as troughing nudges more into the Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. This will gradually pull in more moisture to our area with rain chances increasing heading into the holiday weekend. This would primarily be an increased chance of afternoon showers and storms. High temperatures will come back down to the upper 80s to lower 90s, but with the increased humidity, heat index values will still remain in the mid 90s to to low 100s. Lows remain near 70. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Current conditions are VFR. There are some scattered clouds that may affect the DHN and ECP terminals through daybreak. At most, it may bring cigs down to MVFR. Another stratus deck might approach the VLD terminal this morning with the potential for IFR cigs. Due to low confidence, the TAFs remain VFR but with a TEMPO group indicating lowering cigs are possible. VFR is expected to then prevail for the rest of the TAF period with light south/southeasterly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continue over the next several days. The highest winds will generally be tonight with some areas approaching cautionary levels, especially over Apalachee Bay. Otherwise, tranquil boating conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Generally southeasterly transport winds around 10 mph will continue each day, though the afternoon sea breeze will turn winds more southerly to southwesterly as it passes through. Dispersions will be good each day across the area. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible along the afternoon sea breeze. Some of these storms may produce gusty, erratic winds as well as frequent lightning strikes. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 72 92 72 / 10 10 20 0 Panama City 87 71 87 71 / 10 0 20 0 Dothan 89 69 90 68 / 0 10 30 10 Albany 90 69 91 69 / 0 0 20 10 Valdosta 91 67 92 69 / 10 0 10 10 Cross City 93 68 94 70 / 40 10 20 10 Apalachicola 84 74 84 73 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young  157 FXUS65 KFGZ 190511 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1011 PM MST Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler and breezy conditions remain today behind a cold front. Gradually warmer and less windy conditions return for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Gusty southwest winds continue over the eastern half of our CWA this afternoon, the Wind Advisory for Apache County has been extended through the end of the day. Much drier and stable air has moved into the western zones and this will move east across the CWA through the day and into Tuesday. The band of shallow moisture from earlier this morning is slowly mixing out and shower chances have essentially reached zero. The remainder of the week will feature a slow and steady rise in temperatures, dry conditions and typical southwesterly winds each afternoon. A weak trough does persist over the area through at least Friday, so some of those afternoon gusts may have a little extra speed at times, but nothing impactful. By next weekend, ridging forms over the area and we should expect temperatures to rise a bit above normal as a result. However, it still looks very dry. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 19/06Z through Wednesday 20/06Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Becoming S-SW 5-15 kts, gusts 20kts after 15-18Z, light and variable again after 03Z. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 20/06Z through Friday 22/06Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds SW-W 5-15kts, gusts 20-25kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry and cool conditions. Winds west through southwest 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph each day, strongest in eastern AZ. Minimum afternoon RH is 10-20% on Tuesday, falling to 10-15% on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday....Dry conditions with gradually warming temperatures. Winds west through southwest 5-15 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  269 FXUS63 KLMK 190513 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 113 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Updated Mesoscale and Aviation Discussions... .KEY MESSAGES... * Today through Tuesday, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to low 90s. Some daily max temperature records could be challenged. * This afternoon/evening, showers and/or thunderstorms arrive, especially for our northwestern counties. This is mainly a wind and hail threat. * A line of strong to severe storms is expected to move through ahead of a cold front on Tuesday, possibly bringing strong winds and hail. The line will weaken as it moves east over the region. * More active weather arrive later this week as multiple rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible going into Memorial Day weekend. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 112 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Convection across southern Indiana continues to wind down quickly. Will still see some light to moderate rain move across portions of Crawford/Harrison/Washington/Floyd and Clark counties over the next hour to 90 min. Ongoing flooding will likely be focused in eastern Washington and western Clark counties. Conditions are likely to improve overnight as rainfall ends and water recedes. Issued at 1011 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Convection continues to slowly move eastward across southern Indiana this evening. We're watching a SW-NE oriented band of very heavy rainfall with some embedded thunderstorms that will train across portions of Meade, Harrison, Clark, and Floyd counties in southern Indiana over the next few hours. Overall, atmosphere is marginally unstable with about 500-700 J/kg of MLCAPE and about 30-35kt of bulk shear. The ongoing convection resides within an enhanced PWAT plume with values 1.6-1.9 inches. With deep layer shear largely parallel to the synoptic scale ascent pattern, expect this convection to slowly move eastward with time while weakening. Latest CAM guidance suggests that this activity will diminish with time, likely in the 12-2 AM EDT time frame. Within this band, a solid 1.5-2.5 inches of rainfall is expected. Areas east of the band across far north-central KY have remained rain-free today, so this rainfall will be welcomed and with rates diminishing with time, good ground absorption will be possible, except in the urban areas. Cold outflow from this convection has pushed southward and down toward the WK/BG Parkway corridor. Current expectations are fore this convection to mainly stay on the Indiana side of the Ohio River, though the southwest edge of the rainfall may make it into the Louisville metro region over the next 1-3 hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Current mesoanalysis shows 2000-2500 J/kg of uninhibited SBCAPE, about 20kts of deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates. Not seeing much agitated Cu over our CWA just yet, but just to the west, we have seen some initiation. Shear will slightly increase as the MCS approaches the CWA, which will help storms to become slightly more organized. Over the next few hours do expect some scattered strong to severe storms, with a wind and hail threat. The threat area will be small, over southern Indiana and just along the Ohio River. Most of the region will be spared of any storms. Additionally, PWATs near 1.8-2.0 inches and a slowly moving line of storms will allow for heavy rainfall. This line is also moving aprallel to the LLJ, which will allow for training. Due to this, there is also a risk for heavy rainfall to lead to some minor flooding issues over our far northwestern areas in southern Indiana. As the sun sets, we will quickly lose instability. Showers and storms are expected to quickly dissipate. With broken sky cover and light southerly winds, not expecting a great radiational cooling night. Low temperatures will likely remain warm in the upper 60s and low 70s. This will be close to warm minimum records for May 18. Ahead of an approaching cold front, WAA will continue to keep temperatures in the upper 80s and brushing 90. This will help SBCAPE to increase near 3000J/kg. Dew points will also creep into the upper 60s and low 70s. Though shear will remain low around 20kts. Pulse summertime thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon prior to the cold front and association line of storms. When the cold front approaches, we are expecting a decaying line of storms to outrun the best forcing along the cold front. Wind and hail will be the main threat on Tuesday over the northwestern 2/3rd of the CWA. The cold front will begin to slow its progression southward Tuesday night, making it through most of the CWA by Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 As the cold front slowly sags the the south on Wednesday, widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected, especially for the southern half of our area. Rich moisture along the front will help fuel these showers and storms, with LREF PW values ranging from 1.4- 1.7" (>95th percentile climatologically). Instability to the south of the front will also help fuel these showers, with LREF mean SBCAPE around 750-1000 J/kg. The wind shear profile is very meager, so we don't currently expect severe weather at this stage. With the front moving through, temperatures will much closer to normal for this time of year, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s north of the front in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky, and highs in the low 80s south of the front in south central Kentucky. The front stalls out just south of our area by Thursday, but with some moisture still in place over our far southern counties chances for showers will be possible (35-50%). With northerly flow at the surface, temperatures across the region will be slightly cooler than Wednesday, with highs in the low-to-mid 70s. Though an area of surface high pressure tries to build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions Thursday, a broad upper level trough over the western CONUS pushes eastward and drives the high out of the area. Ahead of the trough axis, a series of shortwaves surges northeastward, lifting the frontal boundary northward Thursday night. Considerable southerly flow at the surface and aloft will allow deep moisture to surge back northward, helping set up a few decent periods of showers and some thunderstorms into Memorial Day weekend. The southerly flow will also allow temperatures to rise back up into the 80s by the weekend, but with dew points again in the mid 60s, it will also feel rather muggy outside. The more active pattern for rounds of showers is currently expected to last through the end of the forecast period, so a little bit of drought relief may finally be on the way. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 112 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Earlier convection over southern Indiana has continued to wind down early this morning. For the overnight period, VFR conditions are expected across the region. Winds will generally be out of the northeast, but will veer around to the southeast and eventually to the south toward dawn. For the daytime hours, a cold front will approach the region from the west. Ahead of this feature, gusty southwest winds will be seen across the region. Southwest winds of 10-15kts with gusts of 20-24kts are expected from roughly 19/14- 19/23Z. Scattered convection may move into the western portions of the area after 20/00Z. For this reason, will keep the PROB30's going at the end of the period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ MESOSCALE....MJ SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM....BEN AVIATION.....MJ  384 FXUS61 KAKQ 190515 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 115 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 06z Aviation update. SPC continues to outlook northern portions of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area. 2) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... As of 315 PM EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a summer-like heat and continued dry conditions for the first half of the week. Temperatures are currently in the lower 90s across the area with some upper 80s along the coast. Widespread lower to mid 90s are expected through Wednesday. Temperatures will be similar each day, perhaps increasing a degree or so each day, culminating with the warmest day of the week on Wednesday. The strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temps, as well as dry conditions into Wednesday afternoon. Then Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area and showers and storms could develop from the pre-frontal trough. The latest models continue to show any convection only reaching north and west portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro. SPC has included northern portions of the area, including RIC metro, in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) with the potential of damaging winds and large hail. The risk of severe storms looks to be marginal with the concern of storms dissipating before reaching the area, but nonetheless, still possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen to SE ridge, while also allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. The cold front will push south of the area Thursday and Friday, leaving a CAD wedge setup with highs in the 60s to 70s with cloudy, drizzly conditions. Then on Saturday, the wedge airmass will erode, pushing a warm front back through the area with temperatures return back to near normal. Some additional isolated to scattered showers and a few storms are possible Sat/Sun, but by no means does the holiday weekend look to be a washout. Rainfall totals for the week do not look like the drought buster we need, with ensemble guidance showing a mean of only 0.50-1.00" for the week. Will note that with recent systems, the ensembles were quite bullish with precip totals and widely over-estimated multiple days out. Gradual warming is expected as we head into early next week, as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions across area terminals look to persist through the 06z TAF period. 1024+mb surface high pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast, with winds SSW 7-10 kt. Winds look to nudge up to 10-15kt by late this morning into the aftn, with occasional gusts to near 20kt during the aftn, and potentially a directional shift to SSE closer to the coast later in the aftn sea breeze. Outlook: VFR conditions expected to continue tonight and Wednesday as high pressure remains in control. S/SW winds likely gust to 15-20 kt once again Wednesday aftn. The next chance of rain and possible degraded flight conditions arrive with a cold front dropping across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub-VFR CIGs then persist in a weak cool air wedge airmass Thu night and Friday. Gradually improving conditions are then expected late Friday and Saturday as the front returns back north as a warm front. While predominate VFR conditions likely return for the holiday weekend, flight restrictions will remain possible in scattered showers and isolated storms both Saturday and Sunday, along with potential VSBY restrictions in early morning ground fog. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. - A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions. This afternoon, expansive high pressure remains centered near Bermuda and extends across the Southeast. Winds are generally out of the S to SW, averaging 10 to 15 knots. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 1 to 2 feet. Through mid- week, high pressure will remain parked across the western Atlantic in a typical summertime Bermuda High configuration. Winds remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late- afternoon nearshore seabreeze. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish through the overnight. These surges will be relatively brief and likely will not require any SCAs. Expect generally benign marine conditions to prevail through at least midweek. The next cold front looks to cross the waters Wednesday night into Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs still suggest that even behind the front, only brief SCA conditions are possible and conditions may stay under SCA criteria into the weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) on Tuesday, with a low risk elsewhere. The moderate rip current risk likely continues for the northern beaches into Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... As of 730 PM Monday... Richmond set a new record high today of 96 degrees. This broke the previous record of 95 degrees set in 1911. Record High Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High/Year High/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None.VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM AVIATION...AJZ/MAM MARINE...AJB/NB CLIMATE...MAM  318 FXUS64 KLUB 190514 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1214 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Much cooler Tuesday as a cold front passes through during the morning hours with a small chance for an isolated storm across the Rolling Plains. - Cooler and wetter conditions from mid to late week with a chance for heavy rainfall overnight Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current surface observations late this evening analyze the previously stalled front over the northern Texas Panhandle, where it has resumed its southward progression over the last hour. This FROPA is expected to make it's way into the far southern Texas Panhandle shortly after midnight, around the 06Z to 07Z timeframe. Behind the front, winds will shift out of the north-northeast where they may briefly become breezy around 30 to 40 mph. Additionally, there remains a slim window of opportunity for an isolated thunderstorm to develop along the frontal boundary as it progresses southward through the overnight period. This will be primarily across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains, where moisture will be maximized with the dryline slowly retreating westward. However, confidence remains a bit low in regards to precipitaion overnight with models all over the place with timing and location, if any storms at all develop. If they do, convergence along the frontal boundary along with steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km and bulk shear magnitudes around 40 knots would suggest the potential for large hail with any storm that develops. Precipitation chances will wane by daybreak Tuesday, thereafter mostly dry conditions are expected. As the front makes its way through the FA, post-frontal northerly winds will develop and last through much of the morning. Becoming easterly by Tuesday afternoon as a surface low develops over central New Mexico. With the post frontal airmass in place and upslope component to the wind a much cooler day is expected with highs in the 70s expected. Highs will vary across the region, and will remain dependent on the timing of the FROPA. NBM highs seem a bit to warm across our southern zones so opted for a blend of NBM 25th percentile to reflect the FROPA moving through shortly after daybreak. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances may exists late Tuesday afternoon and evening as the stalled FROPA to our south retreats back north late in the day. Compared to this time yesterday, most guidance has backed off on this scenario. Nonetheless, depending on how far north the boundary retreats will play a factor in the potential for convective initiation. Otherwise, a quiet night is expected for much of the region with cooler overnight temperatures across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle in the mid 40s to mid 50s while off the Caprock expect lows in the 60s thanks to increasing moisture and the potential for low stratus. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The main theme of the extended forecast package will be the daily afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through the weekend. Broad large scale troughing will remain established over portions of the western CONUS through the period, while the associated parent trough remains displaced to the north digging into the Canadian Provinces. Embedded perturbations tracking through the main flow out ahead of the base of the trough over the Desert Southwest are expected to translate through the region each day from mid to late week this week. Meanwhile off to our east, an upper level ridge will remain overspread much of the southeastern CONUS. This synoptic setup will support southwest flow aloft initially, before we see a more westerly regime set-up by late Wednesday in response to the upper low digging south into portions of the Intermountain West. This more zonal flow aloft will likely limit subtropical moisture transport into the region, with recent guidance placing the bulk of the moisture plume east of the area. This is also reflected in both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble runs with the QPF footprint favoring higher precipitation totals off to our east. Nonetheless, the upslope component to the surface winds with relatively easterly flow will work to transport moisture in from the Gulf allowing for rich low-level moisture to advect into the region. Dewpoints are progged in the 50s and 60s, with mid to upper 60 dewpoints positioned across the southeastern Rolling Plains where we expect the best moisture to be positioned. Similar to the m-d to upper level moisture, the better forcing for ascent looks to remain confined to a pair of H5 jet maximas that are forecasted to remain north and south of the region. Therefore, precipitation chances across the area will be dependent on the perturbations translating through the main flow and interacting with the moisture already in place. Ensembles continue to hint at the best opportunity for shower and thunderstorm activity being late Wednesday into Thursday morning, when the strongest vorticity max moves through the northern Texas Panhandle and West Texas region and taps into the plentiful moisture. If showers and thunderstorms are able to develop, there is a chance for heavy rainfall across portions of the region, primarily our southern counties, where we find PWATs around 1.25" to 1.50" which is well above the 90th percentile seasonal normal for this time of year. This will likely be the main severe threat with activity, although small hail cannot be ruled out given modest MLLR around 7 to 8 C/km and MUCAPE values around 1500-1700J/kg. Expect a similar set up each afternoon Thursday through Saturday as perturbations track through the region and attempt to tap in to the moisture in place across the region. As for temperatures, Tuesday's cold front will provide the much needed relief from the absurdly warm temperatures we saw last week and this past weekend. Easterly winds will remain in place as well through much of the week and with little to no change in heights and thickness values we can expect highs in the 70s to hold through at least Friday, before we begin to see a subtle warm up back in the 80s through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 There is a slight chance for thunderstorms near CDS between 8-12Z. Confidence is too low for a TAF mention at this time, but any storm that affects CDS will be capable of hail up to one inch in diameter and wind gusts up to 55 knots. VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of any convection. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...51  311 FXUS64 KOUN 190513 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Cool, below normal temperatures today through Thursday. Near normal temperatures will return by the end of the week through early next week. - Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday through early next week. A few strong storms may be possible. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is expected to push southward through Oklahoma overnight into Tuesday morning. Storms have already developed along the front in south central Kansas and will continue to build westward along the boundary into northern Oklahoma through the early morning hours. Storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. Depending on the evolution/speed of the frontal boundary, there is a chance a few embedded circulations could occur and therefore a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Chances remain very low, but not zero for a tornado to occur. As the front progresses southward through Tuesday morning, the threat for severe weather may decrease with flooding, along with gusty winds and small hail becoming the primary hazards. The cold front should be through the forecast area by late Tuesday morning with most of the shower and storm activity ending by the early afternoon hours. However, if they front slows down and/or stalls, there is a chance that a few strong to severe updrafts could develop if temperatures have a chance to warm ahead of the line. Based on current trends, there is a lower chance for this slower front solution. Following the front, temperatures will be nearly 20-25 degrees cooler than yesterday with highs in the 60s to 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 There is some signal for isentropic showers and storms late Tuesday evening across western north Texas and into southern and central Oklahoma. These elevated storms could become strong with gusty winds and small hail. Wednesday and Thursday will feature increasing shower and storm chances thanks to several disturbances in the southwesterly flow aloft coupled with the continued presence of the subtropical jet. Temperature are expected to remain below normal in the 70s through mid-week with light east southeast surface winds. The potential for severe storms remains low, but a few strong storms with gusty winds and hail may be possible. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A subtropical jet, with perturbations within the broader mid-level flow, will overspread the southern Plains through next weekend. This continuous mid-level flow will support daily thunderstorm chances through the weekend across our area. At this time, there is low confidence in severe weather during this timeframe. Temperatures will continue to be closer to seasonable through early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A cold front will continue to move through the area tonight and into tomorrow, causing the winds to shift to the north-northeast in its wake. Thunderstorms are expected along this boundary as it moves towards the south. MVFR conditions will persist behind front through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 70 55 71 58 / 40 60 30 60 Hobart OK 72 54 73 56 / 20 50 20 70 Wichita Falls TX 81 58 76 59 / 80 70 40 70 Gage OK 72 46 70 51 / 0 10 10 70 Ponca City OK 69 52 70 55 / 20 30 10 50 Durant OK 84 64 78 64 / 90 60 50 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT early this morning for OKZ004>027- 034>038. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...13  334 FXUS65 KVEF 190514 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1014 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Winds will continue to diminish through the afternoon, and widespread wind impacts are not expected the rest of the week. * Temperatures will warm up through the week as a dry weather pattern sets up over the region. && .DISCUSSION...Through this Weekend. The system that brought strong winds to the region last night pulls away from the area today. With the trough axis currently centered over northeast Utah, the area remained under cool, dry northerly flow through the morning. Winds are not nearly as strong at last night, but gust 25-35 MPH were reported in many locations through the morning hours. The strongest winds today have been in the Colorado River Valley, though even there the north winds have been on a downward trend in the past few hours after the strongest gusts topped out around 40 MPH this morning. Winds will continue to diminish through the rest of the afternoon and by 4 PM, gusts will be 25 MPH or less in for most of the region. With the strongest winds and highest risk for wind impacts behind us, let the High Wind Warning in the Colorado River Valley expire. Isolated gusts to 40 MPH are possible here through the early afternoon which could cause impacts on the lakes, otherwise widespread wind impacts are not expected. With no significant systems are expected the rest of the week, so not expecting widespread wind impacts through the weekend Breezy afternoons with gusts 20-30 MPH are possible at times, especially tomorrow and Wednesday in the Colorado River Valley as north winds linger a few more days. Today will be much cooler compared to recent conditions as high temperatures this afternoon are expected to run about 10 degrees below normal. Heights will increase through the week as troughing weakens, which will result in dry conditions and a warming trend. Temperatures will warm each day with high temperatures returning to normal by Wednesday. The warming trend then continues into the weekend, with above normal temperatures Thursday onward climbing a few degrees each day the second half of the week. By the weekend, high temperatures will run 5-8 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Wind speeds will remain at or below 10KT through the early morning, backing from the northeast this evening to the north overnight. By mid-morning Tuesday, winds increase to 10-12KT, shifting to the northeast with intermittent gusts to around 20KT expected into early afternoon. Gusts will diminish a bit more quickly on Tuesday, with northeasterly winds around 8KT expected to become light, backing to the northwest through the evening. VFR conditions will continue. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Wind speeds across the region are expected to remain 5-10KT overnight as winds back to the north and northwest in most areas. By mid- morning Tuesday, winds veer to the northeast, increasing to 10-15KT with gusts to around 20-25KT expected through mid-afternoon, mainly across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Through the Lower Colorado River Valley from KIFP to KEED, stronger northerly winds will occur, increasing to 15-20KT gusting 20-35KT through the day Tuesday. These winds will diminish a bit around sunset. VFR conditions will prevail with only a few high clouds drifting across the southern part of the forecast area late in the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nickerson AVIATION...Berc For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  385 FXUS66 KPDT 190515 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1015 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Wallowa County today - Breezy to locally windy westerly winds through the Cascade gaps today and Tuesday - Warming and mostly dry Tuesday through the week && .DISCUSSION...Daytime heating has led to modest instability (surface-based CAPE of a couple hundred J/kg or less per SPC's RAP-based mesoanalysis and forecast soundings from the 12Z HREF/REFS) this afternoon across the Blues and Washington Cascades. While activity has been isolated elsewhere, scattered rain showers have developed across Wallowa County. Through evening, there is a slight chance (15 percent) of thunder across Wallowa County, with lower (5-10 percent) chances of rain showers and thunder for other parts of the Blues as well as the Washington Cascades. Tuesday through Saturday, warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions are forecast region-wide as an upper-level ridge of high pressure will likely (90-95 percent chance) build into the region from the Pacific and dominate the weather. A couple weak shortwaves passing through northwesterly flow aloft coupled with modest diurnally induced instability (surface-based CAPE of a up to a couple hundred J/kg from forecast soundings) may facilitate some isolated showers for the mountains through Thursday, but PoPs are low (10 percent or less). Breezy to locally windy westerly winds are forecast through the Cascade gaps today and Tuesday, but not anticipating a need for any wind headlines. In yesterday's discussion, mentioned the potential for westerly winds to meet advisory criteria on Thursday. Ensemble guidance has since trended towards a solution that would lead to a wind reversal to mostly light northeasterly (offshore) winds late Wednesday and Thursday as a shortwave digs south across the northern Plains and Rockies, just clipping the edge of our forecast area. Considering there is still some ensemble spread, will place confidence in this solution at medium (60 percent). Considerable uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern is present in ensemble solutions by the weekend, with roughly 45-50 percent of the variance in solutions explained by timing differences among solutions regarding the arrival of a trough or closed low from the Pacific. The NBM has westerly winds returning to the region by late Friday, persisting through the weekend. Highest chances (10-40 percent) of reaching advisory-level winds have now been pushed back to Saturday and Sunday through wind-prone areas of the lower elevations, primarily the eastern Columbia River Gorge, north-central Oregon, the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and the Kittitas Valley. Of course, the magnitude of winds will be tied to the synoptic pattern, and given the uncertainty (see paragraph above), can't really talk about much confidence in forecast details yet. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Winds will mostly be light, 12kts or less, and diurnally/terrain drive through the period. THe exceptions are site DLS/RDM/BDN, where winds will increase to 12-18kts with gusts to around 27kts at site DLS after 17Z; sites RDM/BDN will see gusts around 15-18kts develop after 19Z. Lawhorn/82 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 42 72 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 46 72 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 44 77 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 44 75 47 79 / 10 0 0 0 HRI 44 75 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 41 68 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 30 72 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 36 68 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 34 70 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 45 73 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...82  467 FXUS64 KLZK 190517 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1217 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 -Above normal temperatures and high humidity levels the next few days. -Some potential for severe thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday. -Daily rain chances will be in the forecast through the end of the period. -Some locally heavy rainfall is possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Summer-like conditions are in place across the state early this morning as 06z observations include temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s F and Td values in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. This humid airmass will linger for the next couple of days as sfc riding remains to the east of the area and H500 longwave troughing persists across the western US. This will provide steady SW flow throughout much of the atmospheric column. For today, a small piece of energy will traverse the state aloft and could provide for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout the day. Overall coverage is expected to remain limited, but some early morning CAMs show a flourish of activity across the northern half of the state between 12-18z. Otherwise, not much concern for widespread hazardous weather today. That won't be the case to the northwest of the state where widespread strong to severe storms may develop later today. This activity would be focused along a nearly stationary cold front situated from the OK/TX panhandles northeastward to the Great Lakes. As storms merge overnight they will begin to move southeast toward the state as the cold front makes similar progress. This activity is expected to move into Arkansas during the early morning hours Tuesday in a weakened state. Through the afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday there could be some reinvigeration of this activity. The overall severe threat will be determined by how widespread the early morning activity lasts and how far it progresses throughout the day. While instability and mid-level lapse rates look favorable for a severe threat Tuesday afternoon, shear values remain limited during this timeframe. Will begin to see the above normal temperatures relax a bit by Wednesday across the state as the sfc cold front moves southeast. The flow aloft will remain out of the SW and disturbances will continue to move along it. This will provide nearly daily chances for precip across parts of the state. This pattern looks to be locked in through at least the upcoming weekend. There will be some localized concern for heavy rainfall at times across the state the next few days as PW values are expected to be in the 1.5-2.0 inch range. But, given the recent short and long term rainfall deficits in place across the area, FFG values remain substantial. This will limit any major flash flood concerns for the time being. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR cigs expected to become widespread across the state through 12z. A line of storms will approach from the NW and move slowly SE across area terminals throughout the day. Northern AR terminals will see precip first with KLLQ likely seeing TS activity after 18z. As storms move across the terminals expect lowering cigs/vsby for at least a couple of hours. Some locally strong/erratic wind gusts will be seen as well. In the wake of the precip, northern AR terminals will likely see the longest period of MVFR/IFR cigs, likely lasting through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 86 66 75 61 / 70 60 70 40 Camden AR 90 67 82 64 / 80 60 90 60 Harrison AR 81 61 69 59 / 90 90 60 20 Hot Springs AR 85 66 79 64 / 90 60 80 50 Little Rock AR 88 66 79 63 / 70 60 80 50 Monticello AR 90 68 82 66 / 60 80 90 70 Mount Ida AR 82 67 79 64 / 90 60 80 60 Mountain Home AR 82 62 70 58 / 90 80 60 20 Newport AR 89 66 77 62 / 60 60 70 40 Pine Bluff AR 90 68 81 65 / 70 70 90 50 Russellville AR 84 66 78 63 / 90 70 80 40 Searcy AR 88 64 78 60 / 70 60 80 40 Stuttgart AR 90 69 80 65 / 70 70 80 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...67 AVIATION...67  661 FXUS61 KOKX 190521 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 121 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot airmass moving into the forecast region. Airmass getting relatively more humid also heading into midweek. Heat advisory NE NJ and NYC Tuesday late morning through Wednesday early evening. 2) Possible showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. Higher chances of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Marginal severe thunderstorm possibility. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend with chances of showers. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Mainly dry conditions continue into Tuesday with strong ridging aloft. Offshore high pressure and increasing low level SW warm air advection will make for much warmer temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as well. The models have shifted a few hours later with the timing of the cold front on Wednesday, thereby allowing for more daytime heating and less clouds. Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM Tuesday to 8PM Wednesday. This is the first high heat index event of the year for NE NJ and NYC. Warmest day Tuesday with SW flow and daytime mixing. Temperatures in the 90s for all of NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and much of interior Southern CT as well as much of Nassau County NY. Mid to upper 90s for high temperatures much NE NJ and NYC Metro for temperatures and heat indices. Dewpoints are mostly in the low 60s Tuesday. Slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. This same distribution exists for high temperatures on Wednesday as well but a few degrees cooler on average. The dewpoints increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday with values mainly in the low to mid 60s. So for Wednesday, temperatures a little less than the previous day but dewpoints a little higher than the previous day. Highs mostly in the lower 90s Wednesday for much of NE NJ and NYC with corresponding heat indices in the mid 90s. Again, slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. .KEY MESSAGE 2... There is some indication within the forecast models showing a pre-frontal trough developing across the interior for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for northern parts of the region. Possibility too for a strong to severe thunderstorm, with quick downburst of wind. This is just marginal risk. CAMs indicate this possibility of convection within their reflectivity fields. The cold front looks to move in first for Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT latter half of Wednesday afternoon and then crosses through the NYC Metro and coastal sections by early evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening. There is potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail. Flooding threat minimal with the westerly flow in the atmosphere and quick steering flow. However, a quick period of heavy rain and possible minor flooding cannot be ruled out with some thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend with quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. In its place, low pressure approaches from the south and west. Model variances on how far north the low reaches. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Northerly flow presents downslope warming first half of the day, allowing for coastal locations to be relatively warmer than inland. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid 60s to near 70 and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly really limiting the daytime warmth with more maritime influence. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure remains over the western Atlantic with a frontal system over the mid section of the country slowly approaching the terminals into Wednesday. VFR through the TAF period. There is a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly NW of the NYC metro. Confidence in the occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. SSW-SW winds under 10 kt early this morning increase to 10-15 kt mid to late morning and early afternoon. Gusts around 20 kt are possible in the afternoon and early evening with a few coastal terminals potentially seeing gusts up to 25 kt. There is a chance gusts will end up occasional. Any gusts should end around 00z with sustained wind speeds gradually weakening below 10 kt tonight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may end up occasional this afternoon. Very low chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly west of the NYC terminals this afternoon/early evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Late tonight: Mainly VFR. Low chance for IFR or lower conditions at KGON. Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with Showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. S/SW winds gusts 20-25kt day into eve. NW windshift in the evening with gusts ending. Thursday: Mainly VFR. Friday: Chance of showers and MVFR conditions. Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions through this morning. SCA on the ocean Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, marginal SCA for non- ocean waters but mostly below SCA criteria. Potential widespread SCA conditions Wednesday into Wednesday night. Mainly below SCA thereafter until holiday weekend when SCA conditions potentially return. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-103>108. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...DS MARINE...JM  549 FXUS62 KRAH 190520 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 120 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * The backdoor front arrival on Thu has trended slower, thus highs have been nudged upward for Thu. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 120 AM Tuesday... 1) Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. 2) Rain chances will return Thu, with daily above-normal chances persisting into early next week. The highest rain coverage and amounts are still expected to be Thu afternoon through Thu night. && .DISCUSSION... As of 120 AM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. Confidence remains quite high that we'll see continued anomalously hot weather, near-record or record-breaking in some cases, as strong ridging near the surface through the mid levels persists. The latest HREF carries through with what the previous days' LREF indicated, with mid level heights over NC in the 99th percentile through tonight and just a slight reduction to 95th percentile for Wed. And 850 mb temps will sit above the 95th percentile for the date, as low level thicknesses hold around 20 m above normal with deep daily mixing. Highs will continue to be in the low-mid 90s across central NC both Tue and Wed. The deep mixing and resulting drop in afternoon dewpoints into the 50s is what will keep our max heat index values under 100F, however our daily Heat Risk will peak at level 2 of 4 (Moderate), with isolated patches of level 3 of 4 (High), suggesting heat that is unusually intense and which could lead to heat illnesses, especially for those most sensitive to heat. And given the generally light breeze with lots of sunshine each day, the WBGT index will be elevated as well. As such, in addition to frequent water breaks, spending time resting in the shade is encouraged, especially for those working or exercising outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances will return Thu, with daily above- normal chances persisting into early next week. The highest rain coverage and amounts are still expected to be Thu afternoon through Thu night. A potent shortwave trough tracking through eastern Canada and New England Wed/Thu will take a cool high pressure area across the northern Great Lakes and St Lawrence Valley, pushing a backdoor front southward through the Mid Atlantic region. Models have been trending slower with the front's arrival, bringing it into our northern areas early-mid Thu afternoon before pushing the front just S of the CWA early-mid Thu evening. This slowing will allow for warmer prefrontal temps, particularly across the S where the cooler air will be last to arrive. Expect highs from the low-mid 80s near the VA border and Triad to around 90 in the Triangle and low 90s (and isolated mid 90s) in the far S. Given the slower frontal push, expect minimal pops prior to midday Thu, with just slight shower chances Wed evening in the far N. As the mid level ridge breaks down allowing for an increasing mid level southwest flow (although initially still fairly weak), minor perturbations aloft will track from Baja California across the S Plains into the S Appalachians. An increasing low level tap of moisture from both the Gulf and Atlantic will push PW levels above normal, and with increasing isentropic upglide along the southward- moving front, pops are likely to ramp up quickly Thu afternoon, continuing well into the night. Strengthening SW 850 mb flow will force increasing ascent along the front, which could lead to isolated heavy rain totals and propagating cells on the SW side of convection. The overall CAPE and deep layer bulk shear will be on the low end Thu, thus no severe weather is expected, and thunder may be limited to just isolated. By Fri, the surface high to our N will be shifting E off the Northeast coast but still extending down through central and W NC as a damming wedge. While the transitory nature of the parent high should curb the duration of this event, there should still be enough clouds and overrunning flow atop the low level CAA for high surface- based stability with limited insolation, favoring cooler temps, esp over the Piedmont where highs will be held in the low 70s, while SE areas of the CWA along and SE of the wedge front see highs in the mid 80s. As is always the case with even weak or brief wedge events, the greatest temp uncertainty will be either side of the wedge boundary, thus confidence in Fri highs remains low. The wedge should be vulnerable to dissolution by Sat, allow temps to rebound back above normal, although not to early-week heat levels. With a persistent long and wavy SW flow from N Mexico into the Carolinas combined with high low-level moisture flux from the Gulf and Atlantic through the weekend and into early next week, our rain chances are expected to remain above normal, focused on each afternoon and evening Fri through Mon. This would be a welcome respite from our ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 700 PM Monday... Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hr TAF period 00Z/19 May. Outlook: There is a chance of low stratus both Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Then scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Thursday surrounding a backdoor cold frontal passage and breezy NE winds. Brief classical CAD will likely bring sub-VFR cigs to all terminals behind the fropa that will likely persist into Fri, especially in the typical CAD regime at INT/GSO and potentially RDU. There is a chance of showers/storms through the weekend with daily MVFR to nightly IFR conditions possible. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022 May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 May 21: KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022 May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 May 23: KFAY: 72/2011 May 24: KGSO: 69/2019 KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000 May 25: KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hartfield AVIATION...Badgett/AS CLIMATE...RAH  589 FXUS64 KAMA 190520 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1220 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 - Frontal passage tonight will bring breezy winds and a directional shift from SW to N. - Showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning as early as Wednesday and extending through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The cold front is making its way through the northern CWA, and pushing through about 30 minutes to an hour quicker than model guidance suggested. This front will bring a shift from WSW winds to N winds, with sustained speeds of 25-30 MPH and gusts up to 35-40 MPH. Although the front will bring with it breezy winds, relative humidities on the back side of the front will increase. Current observations show the jump from single digit RH's to 50-70%, with a delay of about 20 minutes between the wind shift and beneficial RH's arriving. Tonight, the front will continue to push south through the Panhandles, and is expected to reach Amarillo around 11 PM to 12 AM. Winds will remain breezy behind the front until Tuesday late morning/afternoon, where an easterly wind shift and lacking upper- level support will allow wind speeds to decrease. High temperatures for Tuesday will fall slightly below seasonal averages, ranging from the high 60's in the NW CWA to high 70's in the southern CWA. Cloud cover is expected to build into the Panhandles Tuesday night thanks to easterly flow bringing low-level moisture. The SE corner of our CWA could see some spotty rain showers Tuesday night from precipitation backbuilding along the cold front, however, as of now chances are quite low (around 10%) that it reaches that far. Although precipitation is expected Wednesday, the current uncertainty lies in cloud cover throughout the day. If upsloping flow is enough forcing, steep lapse rates to our west could allow for precipitation to make it into our CWA. However, widespread cloud cover could dampen instability in an already recovering environment, which is currently our failure point for Wednesday. While POPs currently reflect 50-60% chances CWA-wide, more certainty in timing and intensity will be gained as CAMs start to reach the event. Ferguson && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Further surface low developments beneath the upper-level SW flow bring the Panhandles persistent rain chances every afternoon/evening until Saturday. Shortwave troughs could intermittently provide upper- level support to upsloping flow and weak surface lows. Given this would provide This could provide just enough bulk-shear over decent instability (consistently around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) to provide the area with a low-end severe threat for any of those days in that period. Long-range model guidance is pointing toward a weak frontal passage on Saturday, that could knock down temperatures into next weekend as well. Ferguson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06Z TAF period. Gusty winds will persist until 12Z for DHT and GUY, while sticking around a bit longer (until around 16Z) for AMA. After winds decrease into tomorrow morning, they will begin to transition from N to E until the end of the TAF period. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ001>020- 317. OK...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT early this morning for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...23  664 FXUS64 KOHX 190521 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1221 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Above normal temperatures Tuesday will cool into the low-80s Wednesday into the end of the week. - There are daily medium to high rain chances Tuesday into the weekend. There is only a low severe weather threat Tuesday. - There is a high chance that rain amounts are at least 2 inches by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Satellite imagery this evening shows an upper-level trough over the Great Plains with a cold front over the Kansas/Nebraska area. On Tuesday, this trough will eject into the Great Lakes region with the cold front slowly tracking south through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of this cold front, moisture will be on the rise across Middle TN. There's already evidence of this with dewpoints in the 60s and the PWAT on this evening's sounding rising to 1.14 inches. Do expect this PWAT to continue to rise with models still showing values near to above 1.5 inches. As the aforementioned front approaches, a pattern change is finally here. Scattered showers and storms will mainly favor areas west of I-65 Tuesday afternoon into the evening. While the setup isn't the most favorable for severe weather with highest wind shear displaced to the north, there does remain a low severe weather risk for storms near the front. Main concern would be strong to damaging winds, but forecast soundings do show steep mid-level lapse rates that could result in small hail. The front slowly sags south through Wednesday, and high rain/storm chances will be in place through the day. Don't anticipate severe weather Wednesday with the setup even less favorable with the instability getting pushed south ahead of the front. But it should be a beneficial setup for some much needed rain with the front and PWATs near the 90th percentile for this time of the year. Temperatures will also start to cool behind the front, from upper-80s to low-90s Tuesday into the low-80s Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The front stalls to our south Thursday, and with a troughing pattern setting up over the eastern CONUS through the end of the week, this will keep medium to high rain chances in the forecast. With the front to the south Thursday, highest rain chances will favor areas south of I-40, but then a series of shortwaves look to bring high rain chances areawide Friday and into the weekend. This is still looking like a very good setup for the rain we do desperately need, and forecast rain totals continue to trend up. By the end of the weekend, probability looks high at 70-80% for widespread rain totals over 2 inches. This pattern will also keep temperatures closer to normal with highs in the low-80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR will continue overnight with light south winds. Most sites will maintain VFR through daytime Tuesday with south winds gusting 20-25 KT. An approaching cold front will set off scattered thunderstorms late day for CKV and perhaps for BNA/MQY. Any thunderstorms impacting terminals will produce brief vsby reductions and local gusty winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 68 83 64 / 30 60 80 50 Clarksville 90 67 80 63 / 50 70 80 50 Crossville 85 64 81 61 / 10 40 90 40 Columbia 90 67 82 64 / 20 50 90 50 Cookeville 87 66 82 63 / 10 40 90 50 Jamestown 88 64 83 61 / 10 30 90 50 Lawrenceburg 87 67 82 64 / 10 40 90 60 Murfreesboro 90 67 84 64 / 20 40 90 60Waverly 91 67 81 64 / 40 60 80 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....13  694 FXUS65 KCYS 190522 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1122 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow through Monday afternoon with Winter Storm Warnings for many of our high elevation and mountain zones and Winter Weather Advisories for nearby zones. - Near record cold Monday and Monday night will lead to widespread freezing temperatures, which may damage sensitive vegetation and outdoor irrigation systems. - Slow warming trend by the mid to late week with temperatures near normal by Thursday and Friday. Chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms each day through Friday evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 On the backside of the strong system moving up into Nebraska we should see snow and precipitation beginning to subside into the evening hours. Strong pressure gradients did produce significant wind gusts and, combined with the heavy wet snow, near to blizzard conditions were noted this morning, particularly in Carbon County, shutting down I-80 and leaving several people without power across the area. Moving into this evening and overnight, we'll see concerns shift to cold temperatures as the cold airmass in place combined with snowpack or clearing skies helps to produce near to possibly record low temperatures. The entire forecast area is under a freeze warning due to this expected cold, with temperatures in the teens to mid 20's all the way through the Nebraska Panhandle. Cold sensitive plants, crops, and equipment will be impacted notably by this freeze. After this, look for a slow warming trend through Wednesday as our pattern advects warmer temperatures from the southwest as we stay generally under weak troughing aloft with southwesterly to westerly flow at 500mb prior to the next quick hitting system at the end of the week. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will feature small embedded shortwaves which could produce some scattered showers or possibly even a weak thunderstorm, but overall activity looks to remain minimal and fairly inconsequential. As temperatures steadily rise the region will slowly warm, but don't expect a quick shot of warmth. Highs Tuesday reach into the 40's to 50's outside of Carbon County where the lingering snowpack will likely keep the area cool in the 30's for the day. Tuesday night into Wednesday lows will once again descend into the 30's east of the Laramie Range, while to the west we'll see another hard freeze in the teens to 20's (also including Converse County to the north). A Freeze Watch has been issued for tomorrow night, with an upgrade to warning likely. Moving into Wednesday highs continue to recover into the 40's to 60's, with lows back into the 30's to 40's with sub-freeze temperatures once again west of the Laramie range. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Heading towards the end of the work week, a shortwave trough will push through Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska on Thursday providing a source of large-scale forcing for ascent. Ensemble guidance has PWAT around the 75th percentile relative to climatology in addition to median SBCAPE around 300 J/Kg, so showers and thunderstorms are a good bet later in the afternoon and evening. Effective bulk shear is progged to range from 25-30 knots, so widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected, although can't rule out a few storms producing marginally severe gusty winds and hail. Given the increased cloud cover later in the day, high temperatures are expected to be 5-10 degrees below climatology in the 60s east of the Laramie Range, and 50s west. A secondary vorticity maximum will propagate across our region on Friday, combined with PWAT near the 60th percentile, resulting in another chance for a few showers and thunderstorms with little change in high temperatures from the previous day given the cloud cover. Into the weekend, 500 mb heights rise as weak longwave ridging establishes itself across the Rocky Mountain West, resulting in a warming trend and mostly dry conditions. High temperatures are expected to be near climatology (average high in Cheyenne on May 23 is 67 degrees), with 60s west of the I-25 corridor and 70s further east. The warm up will continue Sunday into Monday as the ridge axis shifts over Wyoming, resulting in above-average temperatures and little to no chances of precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Rain/snow activity will be coming to an end across all the terminals over the next hour or so. With the added moisture we've seen across southeast Wyoming coupled with winds becoming light and variable, BR and/or FG may develop and impact KRWL, KLAR, and KCYS with VIS 1SM or less and CIGs down to 500 feet, possibly lower at times. After about 15z, CIGs and VIS will improve for the aforementioned terminals. For the Nebraska Panhandle sites, CIGs will lift overnight with winds generally staying variable to around 6 knots. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ113. Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ101-102-106>108- 115>119. Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for WYZ101-115. Freeze Warning until noon MDT Tuesday for WYZ104-105-109>111. Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for WYZ104-105-109>111-113-116. NE...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Tuesday for NEZ002-003-020-021- 054-055. Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Tuesday for NEZ019-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...NB AVIATION...RZ  704 FXUS65 KPSR 190522 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1022 PM MST Mon May 18 2026 .UPDATE...Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - An overall broad scale troughing pattern will persist over the western U.S., resulting in temperatures remaining right around seasonal norms through the rest of this week. - Dry conditions, with no threat of rain, and seasonal afternoon breezes are expected through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Latest GOES W infrared and visible satellite imagery indicates a broad trough of low pressure encompassing the western half of the U.S. with multiple embedded shortwaves rotating around the trough axis. The robust shortwave which was responsible for gusty winds, blowing dust, and critical fire weather in our region yesterday has since lifted into the S Rockies and is now bringing a round of severe weather to the Central Plains. As the trough axis passes over the Desert Southwest this afternoon, negative 500 mb height anomalies will continue to overspread the area, resulting in a mild afternoon across the lower deserts. Highs this afternoon are forecast to top out in the mid 80s across the lower deserts, with only 10-20% chances of reaching 90F in the main population centers including Phoenix and Yuma. Dry air will continue to filter into the region from the NW and cause sfc dewpoints to crash into the 20s and 30s across AZ and even into the single digits in southeast CA. This intrusion of dry air will result in cool overnight temperatures with lows falling into the mid 50s to low 60s across the lower deserts. On Tuesday, a follow-on shortwave trough will dive through the Great Basin region, but will be much weaker than the one we experienced on Sunday. This shortwave will again result in enhanced breeziness along the Lower Colorado River valley where northerly gusts as high as 20-30 mph will develop early morning through midday. Increasing SW flow aloft over AZ will also result in breezy conditions, mainly over the higher terrain of northern and eastern AZ. Elsewhere across the lower deserts wind speeds will be much lighter, generally below 15 mph. Due to the positioning of the trough centered over the Great Basin, 500 mb hghts will not change much and thus high temperatures Tuesday afternoon will only warm by a few degrees into the mid 80s to lower 90s which is still below normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through the rest of the week, global ensembles depict a lasting weak longwave trough pattern across the Desert South, with neutral height anomalies and no significant shortwaves rolling through the region. This will translate to rather seasonal weather conditions, but with a slow day-to-day warming trend. High temperatures are forecast to be near normal through the end of the work week - highs in the middle to upper 90s. Meanwhile morning lows are expected to be near to slightly below normal, largely due to dry air/low humidity and limited cloud cover. It is not until the weekend when odds of high temperatures reaching the 100 degree mark spikes back up to around 30-60%, as the longwave trough across the Desert Southwest breaks down. Conditions will remain dry through this weekend, with no threat of rain, and seasonal wind patterns are expected, with light winds through the overnight and morning hours and afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0520Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF period. Westerly winds will continue into the overnight hours. Winds will resume their more typical diurnal pattern overnight tonight through Tuesday with easterly winds expected by 08-10Z and continuing through the early morning hours. A brief period of southerly winds is expected to precede the westerly shift by the early afternoon. Skies will remain clear overnight with increasing high clouds tomorrow afternoon and evening. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies can be expected throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, winds will vary between N-NW and W'rly through the TAF period, with speeds remaining aob 10 kt. At KBLH, winds will maintain a N-NW direction through the TAF period. A period of wind gusts of 20-25 kt is expected from the late morning through the early afternoon, otherwise winds will be aob 10 kt. Skies will remain clear overnight with increasing high clouds starting tomorrow morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Seasonal temperatures with dry conditions will persist through the end of this week. Daily afternoon humidity values will bottom out around 5-15% each day with poor to fair overnight recoveries at 25-50%. After today seasonal wind patterns are expected through the rest of the week, with afternoon upslope breezes up to 15-25 mph and the only exception being another brief enhanced northerly wind down the Colorado River on Tuesday morning. There is no rain in the forecast through this weekend. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Salerno LONG TERM...Benedict AVIATION...Berislavich FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Salerno  859 FXUS64 KBRO 190525 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1225 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1217 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Key Messages: * Day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms is expected through next weekend and possibly beyond amid a major shift in the weather pattern. * Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible through next weekend. * Hot and humid conditions will take place once again on Tuesday; maximum heat indices between 105-111F degrees will result in widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk. * A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect till 9 AM CDT Tuesday; a High Risk for Rip Currents is also in effect through at least Tuesday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1106 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Hot temperatures featuring Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk through Tuesday (possibly into Wednesday), and an increasingly unsettled weather pattern punctuating a significant pattern change from dry to wet remains to be the two main weather headlines through the forecast period. ...ACTIVE/WET WEATHER DEVELOPS THIS WEEK; MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE... Global computer and AI/ML models/ensembles continue to advertise a significant pattern change from dry to wet beginning this week. A split-flow 500 mb pattern featuring what will become an increasingly active and persistent southwest flow aloft sub-tropical jet or southern branch jet stream is in place. This will serve as a conduit for multiple impulses/perturbations tracking over the region over the next several days. Later in the week through next weekend, there are signs that mid-upper troughing along with multiple impulses/perturbations will undercut high pressure/ridging aloft. Closer to the sfc, a frontal boundary will sag southward across the U.S. before stalling and meandering to our north across the southern Plains. A better than normal jet structure will be in place through this week. Additionally, southerly flow near the sfc will yield a pool of deep tropical moisture helping to increase the atmospheric water content over the region through the week ahead. This is justified with sample maximum precipitable water (PWAT) values between 1.80-2.50 inches, some 1-3 STDEVs above normal and above the 90th percentile of sounding climatology for mid to late May. Furthermore, high instability values will be present through this week with steep mid level lapse rates between 6.5-8.0 C/km, SBCAPE values between 2,000-4,000 J/kg, MLCAPE values between 1,000- 2,000 J/kg, a moderately to very unstable atmosphere with Showalter values ranging between -2 and -6. All in all, the combination of a favorable mid-upper level 500 mb steering pattern, favorable jet stream dynamics, high atmospheric moisture content, and high instability will support a noticeable change to a wetter/active weather pattern this week and possibly beyond. This includes incessant day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms through this week, and maybe through the remainder of May. The best chances for rain this week will be later in the week into next weekend. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible given the atmospheric and forcing ingredients highlighted above. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to have the northwestern half of our area under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. This includes all of Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties, and most of Brooks and Starr Counties in it's latest SWODY2. Given the high atmospheric moisture content available, heavy rainfall and instances of flooding is possible through the week, especially later in the week. This is especially true for slow moving thunderstorms that repeatedly track over the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues to have the entire forecast area or all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall in it's Day 4 (Thursday) and Day 5 (Friday) ERO. Through tonight, a thundershower or two is possible. Latest radar scans reveal a blossoming thunderstorm moving northeast off the slopes of the Sierra Madre with batches of showers further to the north and west. Will have to monitor trends through tonight. For now, we have low (20%) chance PoPs across much of the area. Should the thunderstorm to our southwest off the Sierra madre hold together, we may need to bump PoPs later tonight. For Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, several hi-res CAM guidances continue to advertise a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or MCS originating from central Texas and advancing southward through Deep South Texas late Tuesday into Wednesday between midnight and 9 AM Wednesday morning. Currently, we have low-medium (20-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This may need bumping up depending on things evolve. Again the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday, currently favoring Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and Brooks Counties. Wednesday night through the early parts of next week, additional precipitation chances exists. During this timeframe, we could see another one or two squall lines or MCSs with a heavy rainfall threat move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Wednesday night-Thursday night, we have 30-70% chances for showers and thunderstorms over the region. Friday night through Saturday night, we have widespread categorical chances ranging between 50-75%. Sunday through Monday, there's a 40-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region. Finally, Monday night through Tuesday night, there will be low chances ranging between 20-30%. Through Saturday, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) or rainfall amounts are expected to range between 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The rain to come will certainly prove to be beneficial, helping to further improve the D1 (Moderate) to D2 (Severe) Drought status across the region. ...ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK... The other weather headline through Tuesday will be the heat! Global forecast models/ensembles continue to depict a sharp 588-591 dam sub- tropical heat ridge over the region. This feature will result in another day of hotter than normal temperatures on Tuesday, and maybe even extending into Wednesday. Similar to today, forecast high temperatures for Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 90s to lower 100s with the hottest temps west of IH-69C/US-281. Dewpoints in the mid 70s will result in max heat indices or apparent temperature values climbing to between 105-111F degrees on Tuesday. These values will once again yield Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk. Cloud over will be a factor in these temperatures being realized. By Wednesday, the aforementioned heat ridge relaxes which should result in a slightly cooler day. Shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday as well as cloud cover could also play a role in the slightly lower temperatures from Monday and Tuesday. Nonetheless, it will be another warmer than normal day with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. With heat indices ranging between 100-108F degrees, Heat Risk scores will be mainly fall in the Moderate (Level 2 of 4) categoryover the region on Wednesday. Thursday through next Tuesday, high temperatures will range between the upper 80s to lower 90s. This largely will be attributed to the shower and thunderstorm chances during this timeframe. Tonight through Tuesday night, overnight lows are progged to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wednesday night through next Sunday night, overnight lows are expected to be mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An unsettled pattern will bring primarily MVFR overnight, with some light to moderate showers possible through 12Z. Ceilings briefly lift to VFR during the afternoon before MVFR returns around sunset. Gusty southeasterly winds will prevail into tomorrow, gusting around 25 kts. At the very tail end of the current TAF cycle, there is a low (less than 30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms at all sites, with most likely timing after 06-09Z Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1106 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect till 9 AM CDT Tuesday due to residual elevated wave heights. Outside of the threat for showers and thunderstorms, Tuesday through Wednesday, adverse (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions are likely. Again, outside of the threat for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through next Monday, marine conditions are expected to improve with moderate seas and low to moderate winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 81 93 80 / 10 10 20 0 HARLINGEN 96 79 94 77 / 10 20 20 0 MCALLEN 97 80 95 79 / 10 20 20 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 78 95 76 / 10 30 30 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 85 81 / 10 10 20 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 81 91 79 / 10 10 20 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...69-HK  921 FXUS63 KGLD 190526 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1126 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A short period of frost is possible around sunrise Tuesday morning, mainly west of Highway 25 where temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 30s. - Occasional shower chances through the rest of the week, perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Low clouds, drizzle and light rain showers covering much of the area this morning will slowly erode on the southern edge through this afternoon, with the latest HRRR showing clearing as far north as Interstate 70 by 22z. Afterwards, the clouds will push south again and they will persist through much if not the entire night. Deepening low pressure in southwest Kansas will result in northwesterly winds gusting to 30-40 mph generally south of Interstate 70 between 00-06z, then gradually decreasing overnight. Chance for any light showers will end with the wind shift. Due to the persistent clouds and wind, temperatures will likely only drop into the low to mid 30s for lows, so issued a Frost Advisory to account for that. Clouds will finally dissipate Tuesday morning leaving a mostly sunny and milder day with highs mainly in the 60s. Next shortwave trough will come out of Colorado Tuesday night, and combined with surface winds turning to east and southeast will result in scattered light rain showers. Overnight precipitation amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch. The showers will continue to increase in coverage Wednesday morning as additional shortwave energy moves out of Colorado in the persistent southwest flow aloft. Weak instability in the afternoon is limited to the immediate vicinity of the Front Range and not expecting any thunder here. QPF remains light through the day on Wednesday, but there is a modest increase Wednesday night, with SREF/NBM means showing generally up to a quarter of an inch, but some deterministic output suggesting locally up to a half inch or more. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with the clouds and precipitation, coolest in Colorado. Thursday will see a stronger disturbance move out of the northern Rockies into western Colorado by the afternoon, then moving across the area Thursday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once again. Instability will be limited by cloud cover, and models showing only weak SBCAPE of around 500 j/kg in the afternoon, mainly in Colorado. Deep layer shear will increase to 30-50 kts by 00z and may compensate somewhat for the weak instability in Colorado, where a marginally severe storm may be possible through the early evening before loss of heating. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Thursday night as the upper wave makes its way across the area. Additional rainfall amounts Thursday night are generally between 0.25" - 0.50", though locally higher amounts over 1" are possible. Temperatures on Thursday could remain in the 50s, especially north of Interstate 70, where clouds persist through the day, with perhaps 60s further south or west with limited clearing. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Friday, our region is forecast to be under a weak southwest flow with a weak trough west of the Rocky Mountains. There is also a surface low forecast to set up somewhere in southwest Kansas. Ensembles do not fully align on the placement of this surface low. High temperatures are forecast in the 60s to low 70s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue throughout the day as embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are 30-60% increasing from southwest to northeast. The environment is forecast to be moderately unstable with CAPE values generally between 500-1000 J/kg for the region. However, lingering cloud cover will likely keep the environment capped, reducing the risk for severe weather. If thunderstorms are able to form, small hail could occur with stronger storms. Skies will clear out Saturday and begin a slight warming trend through the beginning of the work week. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s for Saturday and the 80s for Sunday and Monday. Saturday will have a 25% chance for showers and thunderstorms for the southeast county warning area (CWA) from weak shortwave passages. After Sunday, we transition to more of a ridge pattern, so expect primarily sunny skies and gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoons for our Colorado counties. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR ceilings are anticipated to lift/scatter to VFR by sunrise (~10-12Z). VFR conditions are expected to prevail thereafter, through the remainder of the 06Z TAF period. N winds at ~12-18 knots with gusts up to ~25 knots will persist through sunrise, then decrease to ~8-13 knots during the late morning (~16-18Z) and 5-10 knots during the afternoon. Light winds will veer to the E and SE after sunset, near the end of the 06Z TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ001- 002-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ090>092. NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ Tuesday for NEZ079- 080. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...Vincent  905 FXUS64 KHGX 190526 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1226 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, breezy, and muggy conditions will continue for the next several days. - Multiple rounds of showers/storms expected beginning late Tuesday through the end of the work week. A few storms could be strong to severe and multiple rounds of rainfall could lead to minor/street flooding. - Elevated winds, seas, and rip current risk in the bay/Gulf waters and beaches through at least midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 BLUF: The weather pattern begins to change this week with multiple chances for rain and storms continuing well into the Memorial Day weekend. Localized heavy rain and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible. Remain weather aware this week for the latest forecast updates and make sure you have multiple ways to receive alerts. A warm and muggy start to the workweek with mostly cloudy skies and breezy southerly winds. A few showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon despite a strong 700:850 mb capping inversion. Strong moisture transport along with a decent LLJ will be enough to support this activity this afternoon and evening. A warm and muggy night is anticipated with lows in the upper 70s to near 80s. A deep longwave trough deepening over the Rockies will continue to eject multiple impulses of energy along the southwest flow aloft. This parade of disturbances will move through Southeast Texas while at the surface, a frontal boundary will attempt to sag southward into north-central TX before stalling somewhere between the Dallas/Fort Worth area and the Brazos Valley region through the end of the week. Total rainfall amounts will strongly depend on where this boundary stalls. The first round of showers and thunderstorms (first round of a series of mesoscale convective systems (MCS's)) is forecast to arrive to Southeast TX on Tuesday. Given the nature of these shortwaves, it is difficult to pin-point specific timing. Latest hi-res guidance suggests scattered activity in the afternoon, bringing the first MCS Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Forecast rainfall amounts during this time frame is expected to be between 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Scattered showers and storms will continue on Wednesday before the next MCS's arrives early Thursday and additional systems persists into the weekend. With PWAT values near/at the climatological max for this time of year, combined with enough forcing and a deep warm cloud layer, rounds of moderate heavy rainfall will be possible. As noted in the previous discussion, earlier rainfall this week will serve to prime the soil. This saturated grounds will lead to a rapid transition to runoff, especially in areas experiencing repeated rounds of rain. Under this type of scenario, rainfall rates of 3 to 4+ in/hr are possible in the heaviest downpours. Overall, 3 to 6 inches of rain is forecast Thursday through Sunday, with localized higher amounts possible. Hazards: Severe Weather: Thunderstorms could become strong to severe with the first round of storms Tuesday into Wednesday. There is a Slight risk of severe weather mainly for our northwestern counties (Brazos Valley). The main severe weather risk is damaging winds. Hail up to a quarter sized will also be possible. Heavy Rainfall: A Marginal risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) is expected most of the week. A slight risk (level 2 of 4) is forecast for Thursday for portions of the Brazos Valley area. We will continue to monitor trends as these systems evolve in the coming days. A Flood Watch may need to be considered later this week. Stay tuned to the forecast not only through the week but also through the holiday weekend as this unsettled pattern looks to remain through early next week. JM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR cigs along with occasionally gusty SE winds expected overnight into Monday morning. Cigs improve to VFR in most areas by late morning. The primary weather concern will be the potential for a line of heavy shra/tsra late afternoon and evening that should approach the region from the north and west. A few widely scattered thunderstorms could develop ahead of the line during the afternoon hours as well. Storms could contain strong gusty winds. We have TSRA TEMPO groups w/ gusts to 25 knots. However, these gusts could be conservative given the potential for severe thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Moderate to strong onshore winds and building seas (5 to 8 ft) will continue through Tuesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through mid Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will gradually weaken/subside by Tuesday afternoon, though gusts between 15 to 10 knots will continue through the week. Several disturbances will move across the bays and Gulf waters throughout the week, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be locally moderate to heavy. Some storms could become strong Tuesday night into Wednesday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. A high rip current risk continues along all Gulf-facing beaches. Given the persistent onshore flow, this risk will likely continue through the end of the week. JM && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Anticipating multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall Tuesday through at least Saturday. These rounds are expected to mostly be in the form of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's). The exact timing of these storms can be a bit tricky as mesoscale factors play a key role (hence the name), but we anticipate the first round to come late Tuesday. With PW values exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates will likely exceed 3-4"/hr in the heaviest downpours. While these lines of storms are typically progressive, the rainfall received early in the week is expected to prime the soils for rounds later in the week. Saturated soils leads to a quicker transition to runoff which brings an increased risk of flooding. We continue to anticipate widespread rainfall totals of 5-7" with isolated higher amounts. The highest rainfall totals are still expected to occur north of I-10. This rainfall will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. Action to minor stage flooding is the most likely outcome, but cannot entirely rule out moderate to isolated major stage flooding depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Landry-Guyton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 90 77 88 73 / 20 20 30 70 Houston (IAH) 89 78 88 76 / 20 20 20 60 Galveston (GLS) 86 79 86 79 / 20 10 20 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Self MARINE...JM  901 FXUS65 KABQ 190526 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1126 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1120 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread becomes more isolated to the lowwer to middle Rio Grande Valley Tuesday afternoon. - Stray erratic and gusty winds from virga showers will impact a few spots across northwestern and north-central NM Tuesday afternoon. - Afternoon thunderstorm activity increases over eastern New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A windy day is coming to fruition over northern and central New Mexico today, as an upper low has rounded UT and is now starting to lift into CO as a shortwave. This morning's 12Z model runs had lower initial condition wind speeds at 700 mb, but it should be noted there is a dearth of 1200UTC raobs to assimilate nowadays. Regardless, speeds of 30-45 kt were modeled this morning, and these will reduce slightly with the speed max transitioning farther northeast through the afternoon. Gusts have already exceeded 50 mph at Las Vegas, NM and more sites will join soon. Blowing dust is still a concern, and we will be monitoring the need for any Blowing Dust Advisories through the afternoon. Shower activity was been scant, with radar echoes largely staying north of our northern zones, and our window of opportunity for precip today has passed. Winds will start to decouple in western and central NM this evening, but the backdoor cold front will send rapid pressure rises into northeastern NM, as the backdoor front plunges in. The front will spill down all of the eastern plains before dawn Tuesday, bringing gusty northerly winds, and higher dewpoints. The front is now modeled to advance farther west by some higher resolution models, spilling into the Rio Grande shortly after dawn, and this would invoke a gusty gap/canyon wind at vulnerable locations such as the Glorieta Pass and eastern ABQ. Winds have been increased here accordingly. Through the afternoon Tuesday, winds in the eastern NM plains will veer southerly while a large swath of convection breaks out over TX where the front will meet the rich Gulf moisture. Another upper level trough will move into UT, essentially phasing with pressure falls east of the Baja peninsula and creating a sharper trough upstream of us than what was modeled just a couple days ago. This will keep relatively strong southwesterlies aloft (15-25 kt at 700 mb) feeding over NM and it will also help draw the easterly wind into areas like Santa Fe and Albuquerque during the morning. This alignment will also place a north-south oriented corridor of stronger winds over central NM near the Rio Grande Tuesday afternoon where gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common. There also is sufficient mid level moisture modeled to yield high-based cumulus and virga over north central zones Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will run several degrees cooler (and 10 to 15 degrees below normal) in eastern zones Tuesday afternoon while western and central zones warm closer to seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Surface high pressure will continue to build into the central and south central plains early Wednesday with a synoptic east southeasterly surface flow becoming established into west TX and eastern NM. Very high dewpoints will be pooling in southern and eastern TX, moderating some as the moist air infiltrates the higher plains in our eastern zones. Widespread low stratus clouds would likely accompany this moist easterly push along with drizzle and sprinkles Wednesday morning. True to form, theNAM continues to be more aggressive, bringing the moisture and easterly winds all the way westward to the Rio Grande while other synoptic models keep it over the eastern plains. In fact, the NAM/RRFS are so persistent with the easterly surface flow well into the afternoon, that it keeps the low stratus entrenched over much of eastern NM and does not allow the boundary layer to destabilize or exploit the newfound moisture for convection. In contrast, the GFS and other synoptic members mix the moisture eastward, allowing a sharp dewpoint gradient and dryline to form over the eastern counties where destabilization and convective initiation would ensue Wednesday afternoon. The NBM offers a good blend to the dewpoint extremes, but produces an artificially soft gradient that will not likely be representative of reality: a much sharper north-south oriented dryline. Have tried to steer the forecast dewpoints/POPs/Sky towards a more realistic conceptual model, but this will be tricky to pinpoint the placement of the dryline and any subsequent storms. The NBM plastered very high POPs across many eastern zones, and this was tempered and lowered. Through Thursday, two upper level features are becoming more discretely apparent, the residual weak trough over the upper Baja peninsula and another shortwave trough dropping into the central Rockies. These look to stay far enough away to not pose much impact to NM weather, and Thursday's forecast will hinge on low layer moisture and how far west it sloshes during the early morning before mixing back out eastward into the afternoon. The latest consensus is carrying the moisture (40's - 50's dewpoints) farther east and closer to the eastern NM and west TX border. This will of course reduce chances for deep, moist convection with a smaller subset of eastern counties observing isolated to scattered cells. The central Rockies trough would then seem to drag drier westerly flow into eastern NM going into Friday, but there is the potential for another backdoor cold front to disrupt this, keeping quite a bit of uncertainty in the dewpoint/POP forecast for Friday. Should a good frontal intrusion occur, moisture would linger over eastern zones into Friday night and Saturday with veering winds reintroducing the prospects for deep, moist convection and perhaps a few strong to severe storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Strong southwesterly winds have tapered off for the most part this evening, replaced by gusty northerly to northeasterly winds pushing into northeastern NM behind a cold front advancing southward from CO. This frontal boundary is pushing through KTCC this hour, and will bring gusty winds thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into KSAF and KABQ near sunrise Tuesday morning around 13Z to 14Z, reaching KROW an hour or so earlier by 11Z to 12Z. Winds across eastern NM quickly veer southeasterly, joining up with southerly to southwesterly winds through central and western NM Tuesday afternoon. Breezy to locally winds are expected again but at notably lesser speeds relative to what was observed Monday. Low-level moisture increasing the chances for IFR ceilings moves into southeastern NM, including at KROW, toward the end of the TAF period Tuesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A fire weather growing pattern is underway with widespread critical to locally extreme conditions today. As forecast, the strongest winds have been focused over the central mountain chain eastward, and more specifically the northeast highlands where gusts are reaching 55 to 60 mph. Many areas are also already observing less than 10% RH. Winds will start to abate in western and central zones after sunset, and while winds will stay gusty in northeastern areas,they will be shifting northerly with higher dewpoints (and rising RH) as a cool, moist backdoor front arrives. Winds in the plains will veer in direction, turning south through the day Tuesday with breezy speeds persisting. It is also still forecast to be breezy in western zones Tuesday, and this will lead to a convergence zone over central NM with southwesterlies and southeasterlies meeting over the Rio Grande and central mountain chain where wind speeds will be enhanced (gusts of 30 to 35 mph). This centralized area of enhanced winds will introduce a couple to a few hours of marginal to spotty critical conditions Tuesday afternoon, namely in the lower Rio Grande valley. Both the spatial coverage and duration of these critical conditions were not widespread or long enough to justify doing a Fire Weather Watch for FWZ106, but if forecast wind speeds increase a bit more this could quickly change. Some breeziness will redevelop in similar areas on Wednesday, once again leading to localized critical fire weather conditions in the lower Rio Grande valley, but gusts appear to be slightly lower than what is forecast on Tuesday. The long duration wind threat reduces more into Thursday and the remainder of the work week, as weak and ill-defined upper level features become established and reduce wind fields aloft. This will keep wind concerns confined to thunderstorm outflows in eastern NM and occasionally in central gaps/canyons when moisture intrudes from the east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 40 76 44 76 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 31 71 36 73 / 0 10 10 10 Cuba............................ 37 73 42 74 / 0 10 10 5 Gallup.......................... 34 74 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 38 73 43 72 / 0 10 5 0 Grants.......................... 37 78 42 77 / 0 10 5 0 Quemado......................... 40 75 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 47 78 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 42 75 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 38 78 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 42 83 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 31 65 36 66 / 0 10 30 20 Los Alamos...................... 46 71 51 71 / 0 10 10 20 Pecos........................... 40 71 43 70 / 0 10 10 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 39 68 42 69 / 0 10 30 20 Red River....................... 32 59 35 59 / 0 10 40 30 Angel Fire...................... 27 63 30 64 / 0 10 30 40 Taos............................ 35 71 39 73 / 0 10 20 20 Mora............................ 37 67 41 66 / 0 10 30 30 Espanola........................ 43 79 48 79 / 0 10 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 45 73 49 72 / 0 10 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 43 75 47 75 / 0 10 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 81 55 81 / 0 10 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 54 82 54 83 / 0 10 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 50 84 52 84 / 0 10 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 83 54 84 / 0 10 10 5 Belen........................... 47 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 50 83 53 83 / 0 10 10 10 Bosque Farms.................... 46 85 49 85 / 0 5 5 5 Corrales........................ 50 84 54 85 / 0 10 10 10 Los Lunas....................... 47 85 50 86 / 0 0 5 5 Placitas........................ 51 79 54 78 / 0 10 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 50 83 54 84 / 0 10 10 10 Socorro......................... 52 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 76 50 75 / 0 10 5 20 Tijeras......................... 47 78 50 76 / 0 10 5 20 Edgewood........................ 43 77 46 75 / 0 10 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 39 78 42 77 / 0 5 5 20 Clines Corners.................. 42 70 44 68 / 0 0 10 30 Mountainair..................... 44 78 46 78 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 45 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 53 81 54 82 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 50 73 52 71 / 0 0 5 20 Capulin......................... 32 62 35 59 / 5 5 20 30 Raton........................... 35 67 41 65 / 0 5 20 30 Springer........................ 38 69 41 66 / 0 0 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 39 66 44 64 / 0 10 30 30 Clayton......................... 41 66 42 61 / 0 0 20 30 Roy............................. 41 68 42 62 / 0 0 30 30 Conchas......................... 47 75 47 69 / 0 0 30 40 Santa Rosa...................... 45 76 47 68 / 0 0 30 30 Tucumcari....................... 49 75 48 70 / 0 0 20 40 Clovis.......................... 47 76 50 68 / 0 0 20 40 Portales........................ 49 77 50 70 / 0 0 20 40 Fort Sumner..................... 48 79 50 72 / 0 0 20 50 Roswell......................... 55 85 57 77 / 0 0 20 30 Picacho......................... 51 83 51 77 / 0 0 10 30 Elk............................. 50 83 49 80 / 0 0 5 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...24  948 FXUS66 KMTR 190527 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1027 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 - Diurnally driven winds, with onshore winds during the afternoon and early evening. - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek with seasonal temperatures returning late week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (Tonight through Tuesday) The forecast appears to be on track, with broad upper level troughing holding over much of the western U.S. while high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. The good news, is that our breezy offshore winds have eased substantially leaving us with fairly calm weather in return. Tonight, skies will remain clear and temperatures will generally fall into the 50s for the valleys, perhaps upper 40s for some coastal sites and the southern Salinas Valley. At higher elevations, a thermal belt will exist as temperatures fall into the mid 50s to low 60s and may still have some northerly winds. For those in the valleys, winds will generally be light and variable. Tomorrow, another warm day will be on tap. The question will be, how do the temperatures pan out? Offshore flow won't be as prevalent, which means there could be less of a downsloping / warming of the air affect. But, that upper level high slowly creeps towards us and the marine layer is essentially negligible. Opted to blend a bit of the observations from Monday to the NBM giving us a similar forecast, to what occurred yesterday. The interior Bay Area valleys should make it into the 80s, perhaps near 90 degrees, while coastal communities experience a tighter gradient of highs in the 60s to low 70s. The San Francisco Peninsula should be similar, with the Pacific side having temps range from the mid 60s to low 70s, while the Bay side ranges from the upper 70s to mid 80s. And finally the Central Coast, interior locations rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s, while coastal communities vary from the mid 60s to the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1026 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 (Tuesday night through next Monday) No major changes to the extended forecast. Upper level troughing looks to keep hold over the western US through at least Wednesday, with that Pacific high slowly peeking into northern CA. This should bring a return of onshore flow to the region and eventually the marine layer. Warm weather looks to linger through at least Wednesday, with Thursday potentially seeing a slight change in temperatures if the marine layer develops. Guidance for Thursday caps it at 500ft at best, with the marine layer getting to 1000ft by Friday. The marine layer appears to better establish itself Friday night into Saturday, likely getting to around 1000ft again. Will need to keep an eye on this as it will affect how temperatures pan out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 AM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Winds may become calm and/or light and variable overnight. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Westerly winds will continue to diminish with the potential to become calm and/or light and variable overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and VFR with northerly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 932 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Conditions will continue to improve tonight as northerly breezes continue to diminish. Rough seas will prevail in the outer waters with moderate seas in the inner waters. Hazardous conditions for small craft will persist through the week across the northern outer waters due to rough seas and strong northerly breezes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Gusty north to northeast winds will continue through this afternoon before easing tonight into tomorrow. Peak gusts between 35 to 45 mph are still possible across the higher elevations into this evening. Daytime humidity retention remains poor with most sites staying around 10-25% across the interior and higher peaks with limited overnight recoveries. Winds ease by Tuesday but fire weather concerns will linger through late week as light offshore flow continues and daytime humidities remain poor. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  111 FXAK67 PAJK 190530 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 930 PM AKDT Mon May 18 2026 .UPDATE...Update to the Aviation Section to include the 06z set of TAFs. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 735 PM AKDT Mon May 18... SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - A weak system brings some rain to the northern coast tonight into Tuesday, with winds and seas decreasing into Tuesday morning. - Wednesday morning a gale force front impacts the region. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday/ A front passed this morning with westerly winds behind it an some breaks in the clouds showing up through the afternoon. There are some showers still around and expect most along west facing slopes while the lee side will see the best breaks this evening. A band of vorticity looks to track over the region tonight, so have kept scattered shower potential in the forecast for that, namely across the north. There is also CAA behind this front, so expecting a chilly night, some places that clear out more across the north could see temps into the mid 30s, getting close to frost potential, but kept it just above that due to the amount of clouds around. Upper level ridging sharpens some for Tuesday with NWLY flow, so more breaks are in the works, especially for the southern inner channels (Ketchikan). Isolated showers will remain around the northern mountains with best breaks over the inner channels. Some sunshine will make it feel markedly warmer than the last couple days and made a point to have Tuesday be warmer than Monday or Wednesday. The next front will be on our doorstep Tuesday night. Yakutat can expect rain before dawn and winds will back around to the S-SE ahead of the front. Rain will spread across the panhandle through day, becoming heavy at times along the northern/central outer coast in the morning and afternoon. Rain will take until late afternoon to reach as far east as Hyder. Looking at frontal passage with a wind shift to the west again late Wednesday night. LONG TERM.../ Thursday to Monday / Thursday will likely be showers or fading shower activity in a post weather front (Wednesday's) situation. The associated low feature near Prince William Sound weakens and will be getting absorbed during Thursday/Thursday night into the front from a low over Bristol Bay. The new front sweeps the western gulf Thursday and to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night. Yakutat should Good rain rates Thursday night. The front is forecast to be weakening, as the feature moves way from the parent low which stayed over Bristol Bay so the feature that rolls across the panhandle Friday is a frontal band followed by a ridge over the gulf to the panhandle for the start of the weekend. For the Memorial Day Weekend / Saturday to Monday / The models here are still trying to settle into a pattern. Indications are that a system will spin into the Gulf of Alaska, mainly for Sunday, however its intensity and track are uncertain at this point. Ensemble means and a variety of operational models are trending toward a 995 to 1000 mb low heading in the general direction of Dixon Entrance by Sunday night, but there are indications the low could be as strong as 985 mb, and some outliers are pointing toward a much further south track and weaker low. Overall the weekend may be cool and damp or could be wet and windy, especially over the southern panhandle on Sunday depending on how this system evolves. AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions continue this evening with some isolated pockets of ceilings dropping down to MVFR. Some areas could see ceilings decrease from VFR down to MVFR this evening while other locations such as Skagway could see more clearing during the overnight hours. One concern with the potential for clearing would befog development across the panhandle. Some of the TAFs reflect this potential with some reduced visibilities or fog in the vicinity. But places with less confidence were not included but will still need to be watched for any development during the overnight hours. Heading into the middle of the day tomorrow, conditions should generally remain the same throughout the day with the exception of the NE Gulf coast which will likely rain return before other locations which will keep conditions lower. MARINE... Winds continue to diminish in the wake of a front which moved through on Sunday, although respectable southerly flow will persist in Northern Lynn Canal through the foreseeable future. A system moving across the Gulf on Tuesday arrives in SE AK on Wednesday, bringing gale force winds to the N and NE Gulf Coast, and small craft conditions to the inner channels. Outside coastal waters: Winds have diminished substantially in the wake of the last system, and seas will be following suit Monday evening, with seas trending down to 6 to 7 ft for most areas with the exception of the N Gulf East of Yakutat Bay. WInds trend upwards on Tuesday across the Gulf, and by Tuesday night for the outer coast, as another system approaches SE AK. Expect gale force winds to be largely focused around the northern gulf and gulf coast, down as far as Cape Fairweather. Waveheights ramp back up as this system moves in, reaching 12-15 ft on Wednesday. Winds and waveheights then diminish late Wednesday into Thursday as the system departs. Inside Channels: Winds diminish across the inner channels through Monday evening, with the exception of Lynn Canal, where elevated flow of ~20 kt persists. Winds will ramp back up to 10-15 kt on Tuesday, as southerly flow is sustained by a weak wave moving onshore. Wednesday will see widespread sustained southerly winds of 25 to 30 kt as a strong warm front moves onshore, alongside elevated seas, with ocean entrances reaching 10+ feet, and areas where swell reaches seeing additional inclement conditions. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-651-652-661>663-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ferrin LONG TERM...Bezenek/EAL AVIATION...SF MARINE...GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau  195 FXUS61 KALY 190531 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 131 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Convective outlook is relatively unchanged at this time, with marginal to slight risk across much of the area on Tuesday and marginal risk for southern areas on Wednesday. Main threat looks to be damaging winds. Hot and humid weather will peak on Tuesday. Heat Risk slightly increased, with some areas in the major category. Some parts of the mid Hudson Valley, Capital Region and NW CT may see heat index values briefly approach 95 during the mid to late afternoon hours on Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well-above normal temperatures will continue through the middle of the week. With Heat Risk values in the moderate to locally major category, there is an increased risk for heat- related illnesses, especially on Tuesday. 2) Ahead of a cold front, scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially for northern areas. Additional storms are possible on Wednesday afternoon, mainly for southern parts of the area. There is marginal to slight risk for storms to be severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. 3) A return to more seasonable temps is expected late this week with the next chance for widespread rain being next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... On Tuesday, southwest flow aloft will continue to allow for 850 hpa to rise to +15 to +19 C across the region. The low-level flow out of the south to southwest will keep the warm and increasingly muggy air mass in place as well. Although dewpoints will initially be in the mid 60s, model soundings shows excellent mixing to about 775-800 mb, which may help lower dewpoints somewhat during the mid to late afternoon hours. Still, a partly to mostly sunny sky and a southwest wind downsloping off the Catskills will allow for a very warm day for mid May, with high temperatures reaching close to record values for the date, with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Heat index values will likely be similar to actual air temps in the mid to late afternoon hours due to the mixing, so the humidity won't be quite mid summer levels. Still, anyone spending time outdoors on Tuesday will need to practice heat safety, especially since it's early in the season and many people aren't used to this extreme heat just yet this year. WPC Heat Risk is still widespread in the moderate (level 2 of 4), although some areas of major (level 3 of 4) are starting to appear for southern areas. It's borderline Heat Advisory criteria, but based on collaboration with neighboring offices, won't go with one just yet due to heat index values mainly below 95 degrees, but it's rather close. With a cold front coming through, most areas will see cooler temps and a drier air mass starting to arrive on Wednesday, although far southern areas will remain ahead of the front for most of the day. A moderate heat risk is still expected for the mid Hudson Valley with highs still approaching 90 by the afternoon hours before the front arrives late in the day. Heat- related illnesses will still be a concern for southern areas on Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 2... There will be a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly for northern areas. Our area will on the northern edge of the upper level ridging centered over the eastern seaboard, while an upper level disturbance moves across the Upper Great Lakes. As this disturbance approaches, 0-6 km bulk shear will be increasing through the day, with 30-40 kts across northern areas by the afternoon hours. Although mid level lapse rates will be rather poor to start, they may start to increase by late in the day as the upper level height falls get a little closer to the area. Surface-based instability will be sufficient for storms due to the warm and somewhat humid air mass in place, with model values showing about 500-1000 J/kg. CAMs suggest some scattered activity may spread across the Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga Region beginning in the early to mid afternoon hours and it will spread eastward or southeast for late in the day. Some activity will be possible for the I-90/Capital Region corridor by later in the day as well. 2-5 km updraft helicity isn't overly impressive and CAMs haven't been suggesting much organization, but there should be enough overlap of shear and instability to suggest some storms could be strong to severe. The main threat would be damaging wind gusts with any storm on Tuesday. Some additional storms are expected on Wednesday just along or ahead of the cold front for the afternoon hours. Models suggests there will once again be about 30-40 kts of shear with SBCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range. This would primarily impact the mid Hudson Valley, Taconics and western New England. Once again, damaging wind gusts would be the main threats. SPC has a marginal risk for Wednesday and this looks reasonable at this time. Any threat for storms will decrease as the boundary drops north to south across the region, with the front exiting our area by the early evening hours. KEY MESSAGE 3... Behind the front, cooler and drier air will arrive for Thursday into the late week. Daytime temps will only be in the 60s for valley areas for Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s, with some mid to upper 30s possible for the highest terrain of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. A widespread rainfall is expected over the holiday weekend, although exact QPF, timing and duration of precip is still in question. Models have suggested this could be a slow-moving system, although haven't been consistent on this just yet. With steady rainfall and plenty of clouds, temps could be held down below normal during the rainfall, which may impact holiday weekend plans. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z/Wed, mainly VFR conditions are expected with occasional patches of high/mid level clouds. Isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and could briefly impact KGFL/KALB and KPSF between 18Z-23Z/Tue. A brief period of MVFR/IFR Vsbys will be possible within any passing downpours. South to southwest winds 5-10 KT through daybreak will become southwest to west and increase to 8-15 KT by afternoon with some gusts up to 25-30 KT. West to southwest winds will then decrease to 5-10 KT after sunset. Low level wind shear is likely through daybreak as surface winds from the south-southwest remain 10 KT or less, while winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the west-southwest to 30-40 KT. Low level wind shear is possible again after 03Z/Wed. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064-065. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...27 AVIATION...24  228 FXUS62 KFFC 190532 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday. - Warm temperatures continue the next few days with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Increased rain chances return from Wednesday through the weekend, especially in northern and western Georgia. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Warm and Dry Weather Through Tuesday: Conditions will be warm and rain-free for most areas through Tuesday, courtesy of a dry airmass surging into the region throughout the day. The one portion of the area that could see isolated afternoon showers and storms each day is across the GA/AL border, where moisture will be a little higher. Elsewhere, PWAT values will drop to below 1 inch, resulting in mostly clear skies outside of high cirrus and some afternoon fair weather cumulus. High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s across the region each day, with overnight lows only falling to the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 The extended forecast period will bring a summerlike pattern by our standards, characterized by warm and muggy conditions punctuated by diurnally-enhanced scattered showers and thunderstorms. PoPs initially begin to trend upward on Wednesday, primarily across north and northwest Georgia, as the Southeast ridge begins to flatten as a weak cold front makes gradual progress southeastward. This front will not make much additional forward progress on Thursday as it becomes stationary across the Tennessee Valley vicinity amid southwest flow aloft. This will keep highest PoPs again concentrated generally along and north of I-20 on Thursday. The front then begins to wash out and lift back northward by Friday as southwest flow aloft persists along the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. While the ridge looks to gradually expand back westward a bit over the weekend, the deep moisture conveyor within the southwest flow should keep at least scattered convective coverage across at least north and west Georgia, though the bulk of the more consistent rainfall will remain relegated to our west. Obviously, any rainfall is appreciated and welcome at this juncture, though this type of "hit-or-miss" summerlike convection will do little to materially alter the course of the ongoing drought. Temperatures will primarily remain a few degrees above normal, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the mid-to- upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR expected through the TAF cycle for ATL. A CU field will develop after 16Z bringing a SCT low VFR deck, but no category change is expected. Winds will be out of the SE at 5kts or less. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 66 91 66 89 / 0 20 20 60 Atlanta 69 89 69 87 / 0 30 20 60 Blairsville 63 84 62 81 / 0 50 30 80 Cartersville 66 88 65 87 / 0 50 20 70 Columbus 68 91 68 91 / 0 30 20 30 Gainesville 66 88 67 86 / 0 20 20 70 Macon 66 91 67 91 / 0 20 10 40 Rome 64 87 63 85 / 10 60 30 80 Peachtree City 66 89 66 88 / 0 30 20 50 Vidalia 65 91 68 92 / 0 10 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...Vaughn  394 FXUS63 KICT 190537 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the overnight hours. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall are all possible. - Cooler weather begins Tuesday, with highs in the 60s and low 70s through at least Thursday. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday night into the weekend. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, but could see a few strong to severe storms toward the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a potent mid/upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the Central Plains. Surface analysis early this afternoon depicts a stalled quasi-cold front spanning from north central KS south/southwest into the OK Panhandle, while a surface low pressure resides near KGBD. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the stalled front. With mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear, storms should grow severe rather quickly, especially early on prior to storm interactions. As prior discussions have mentioned, mostly boundary- parallel shear will promote a messy linear mode with embedded supercell structures. Given the environment, however, initial development will likely be discrete/semi-discrete and supercellular in nature. This will allow for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. We could also see a few landspout tornadoes primarily across central KS given the slow-moving nature of the boundary. The timing for these higher end severe threats appears to be through 8 PM. In addition to these threats, heavy rain arising from training storms may result in flooding concerns, especially in central KS where soils have already been saturated from yesterday's heavy rainfall. As the aforementioned trough continues to eject to the northeast into the Northern Plains this evening, the cold front will pick up speed and progress to the southeast. As this morning's discussion highlighted, this will likely decrease the threat for very large hail and supercell/landspout tornadoes with the growth transitioning into a mostly linear mode. This transition will promote more of a wind threat, but could still see large hail with this activity given the ample instability continuing into the overnight hours. Also can't rule out a few tornadic circulations within the line due to the strong low-level shear/SRH, but this threat should remain low relative to this afternoon's chances. Storm chances will largely exit the region with the departure of the cold front, though far southeast KS could see some lingering showers and storms through the day on Tuesday. Cooler temperatures are forecast throughout the area as well, with the post-frontal airmass promoting afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s through at least Thursday. With the right entrance region of the upper jet progged to linger across the Central/Northern Plains, chances for showers and storms are expected to arrive Wednesday night and last into the weekend. At this point, it appears that Friday will hold the next potential for strong to severe storms given the return of instability and reasonable deep-layer shear. Details this far out are quite uncertain, though widespread severe weather appears unlikely to this point. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A broken line of thunderstorms will continue marching east- southeast across southeast KS overnight, exiting far southeast KS by around 09z. The strongest activity will be capable of quarter size hail, 65 mph winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Lingering instability and lift may support additional hit-or-miss shower/thunderstorm development in back of this line further west-northwest across portions of central and eastern KS through the predawn hours, but confidence is low and coverage should be fairly spotty. These spotty hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms could linger over southeast KS through about midday. Otherwise, mostly MVFR ceilings (with localized IFR ceilings) will persist across the region overnight, gradually turning VFR from west to east during the day Tuesday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...ADK  365 FXUS63 KMQT 190535 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 135 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm late this afternoon. - Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight. Some of the storms could be severe, mainly over the southern half of the U.P. Heavy rainfall is also possible. - Cooler than normal temperatures Tuesday through the rest of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 The primary focus of the forecast is on the next 24 hours as a dynamic low pressure system lifts through the region. Quiet and benign weather follows for most of the remainder of the week. Latest GOES water vapor imagery place a deep trough over the Rockies and Plains which is moving east. An embedded shortwave over CO is emerging where a sfc low is organizing. These two features lift to northwest WI by tonight, supported by a right entrance region of the upper level jet and strong LLJ, bringing another round of showers and storms to Upper MI for tonight. Afternoon visible satellite imagery has shown a brief window of clearing passing over the western UP allowing for temps to warm into the 60s to mid 70s interior west. Cooler temps are noted near Lake Superior in the mid 40s to mid 50s where a lake breeze is moving onshore. Where transient showers lingered this morning in the east and cloud cover has been stubborn, temps are in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Not much further warming is anticipated given the brief window of clearing, lake breeze influences, and stationary boundary pressing in from the west. Latest SPC meso-analysis indicates some surface instability developing, which is anticipated to increase up to ~1250 J/kg by this evening per 12Z HREF mean as Tds rise into the upper 50s to low 60s. While marginal instability builds this afternoon, some isolated showers and storms are possible (20-40% chance). That said, ~30 kts of shear and little forcing will leave convection short lived and weak. The LLJ moving in tonight significantly increases shear after sunset while instability begins diminishing. With cold front convection well to the south, decreasing SBCAPE/low level lapse rates, and a cap strengthening, it's no surprise the UP (and most of WI) has been completely removed from the SPC tornado outlook. MUCAPE and mid level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km linger into tonight, providing a low chance for strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds. The downward trend is also reflected in the latest SPC hail/wind outlooks, downgrading the northern tier of the UP to just general thunderstorms with a marginal risk (~5%) over the south. PWATs ~1.5 inch with the main wave tonight will yield rainfall totals of a few hundreths to around 0.5 inches, highest amounts over the west where there is a 25-50% chance for amounts up to 1 inch. This is captured by the WPC marginal risk of excessive rainfall (~5% chance of exceeding Flash Flood Guidance). Otherwise temps fall into the 40s and 50s tonight, coldest northwest. Isolated to scattered showers linger into Tuesday, however instability will likely be elevated and only briefly uncapped in the east/south-central for a few hours at best. Thunder is in the forecast, but strong to severe storms are not expected. Highs in the east half on Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s, lower in the northwestern UP where mid 40s to mid 50s are expected. From there, the low departs to the northeast and high pressure over the Plains replaces it. This maintains over the Great Lakes through most of the work week yielding dry weather until the weekend. Lingering troughing aloft keeps colder northwest flow through Wednesday, resulting in temps between 5-15 degrees below normal; highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s. A warming pattern is then expected toward next weekend as mid level ridging slowly builds over the southeast and extends up into the Great Lakes. Another trough over the Rockies on Friday looks to move toward the Upper Great Lakes during the weekend, bringing back precip to the UP. Instability with this is lacking, so impactful strong to severe storms are not anticipated. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The passage of a cold front tonight and lingering low level moisture is causing IFR/LIFR conditions at all sites tonight. Some LLWS is forecast at CMX this morning and while it is possible around SAW/IWD, confidence on the timing and intensity is too low to include in this TAF issuance. In the wake of the front, gradual improvement is expected throughout the day, though there is some spread in the models as to the timing of such an improvement. Winds will rapidly shift with the front before becoming NWerly behind the front. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A low pressure moving northeast over Upper Michigan and Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday. This tightens the pressure gradient and increases northeast winds over the west and north-central portions of the lake to 20-30 kts tonight. As the low moves overhead, winds become northwest and strongest winds shift from the west half to the east as colder air moves in. Probabilities of gales to 35 kts are 25% or less, highest in the east Tuesday afternoon. Showers and storms are expected with this system into Tuesday morning, however severe storms are no longer expected. This rainfall will prolong fog over the east into Tuesday morning. High pressure returns winds to 20 kts or less by Wednesday afternoon, winds likely maintain light into the weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ005. Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ006. Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ007-014-085. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ013. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ244- 264>266. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LSZ245>251. Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221- 248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...GS MARINE...77  387 FXUS66 KPQR 190536 AAB AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1036 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 Updated Hazards... .SYNOPSIS...Dry and benign weather is expected across the region through much of the next week as high pressure builds over the Northeast Pacific, resulting in a warming trend. Weak systems aloft may bring enhanced cloud cover on some days, but rain chances are minimal. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Sunday night...Concerns for hazardous weather remain minimal through the upcoming week. There is high confidence that upper-level ridging and surface high pressure will build over the Northeast Pacific, although uncertainty in the amplitude and position of the upper ridge increases later in the forecast period. Through the end of the workweek, while the ridge axis remains well offshore, upper shortwaves within northwesterly flow aloft may produce increased cloud cover on certain days including Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but chances for rainfall remain 5-10% along the Clatsop and Pacific County coasts and in the Willapa Hills, and lower elsewhere. On clearer nights, areas of fog are most likely to develop within sheltered valleys. As the ridge axis shifts east, temperatures will trend upward through at least Thursday, reaching the 60s on the coast and upper 70s to low 80s along the I-5 corridor. At this time, there is Minor HeatRisk forecast across the region, meaning those who are most sensitive to heat may be affected, however there are 15-25% chances Moderate HeatRisk occurs in some urban areas along I-5 if daytime highs end up slightly hotter, including the Portland/Vancouver metro, Salem, and Albany/Corvallis areas. Later in the forecast period, from Friday through next weekend, uncertainty in the evolution and possible break-down of the upper-level ridge introduces similar uncertainty in forecast temperatures and precipitation. Forecast daytime highs currently trend downward through the holiday weekend as chances increase that ridging deamplifies or is replaced by an upper trough, but there is an increasingly wide range of possible outcomes. The 80%-confidence envelopes (the difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles) in temperature widen from 8-13 degrees on Friday and Saturday to 16-18 degrees on Sunday and Monday along the I-5 corridor. There is greater consensus that the ridge will break down late Sunday into Monday, yielding increasing chances of cooler temperatures as well as the highest chances of rainfall, 25-50%, in over a week. -36 && .AVIATION...Currently VFR conditions throughout the airspace except for low-end MVFR CIGs at KAST as of 04Z Tue. Expect MVFR CIGs at KAST to continue through at least 06Z Wed (70-90% chance of MVFR CIGs). Additionally, There is a 30-50% chance of IFR conditions until 21-23Z Tue. Expect similar conditions for KONP, but with a 50-70% chance of MVFR CIGs and 20-30% chance of IFR CIGs until 17-19Z Tue, then gradually improving to VFR by 00Z Wed. As for inland terminals, expect mostly VFR conditions through at least 06Z Wed, but with a 20-60% chance of MVFR CIGs between 11-20Z Tue for KPDX, KHIO, and KTTD (highest chances at KTTD). Otherwise, expect light winds through at least 21Z Tue, then becoming northwesterly and increasing to around 7-10 kt inland and 9-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt at the coast. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mostly VFR conditions expected through at least 06Z Wed. Stratus pushing inland along the Columbia River could reach the metro between 11-20Z Tue, bringing a 20-40% chance for MVFR CIGs at KPDX and 40-60% chance at KTTD. ~12 && .MARINE... Northerlies are expected to persist through much of the week as the summer-like pattern settles in. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon and evening periods as a surface thermal trough strengthens over the southern Oregon coast. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the inner coastal waters south of Cape Foulweather OR until 1 AM Tuesday for gusts up to 25 kt. Similar conditions are expected late Tuesday. Seas around 6 to 8 feet are expected through the week as well. Chances increase on Wednesday and Thursday for more widespread wind gusts for all marine zones. Small Craft Advisories is in place for the Columbia River Bar for early Tuesday morning due to strong ebb currents which will produce conditions hazardous to small craft. Strong ebb currents are possible during the morning hours each day this week. -19/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ253. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland  469 FXUS63 KABR 190539 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1239 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers (embedded thundershowers) into the evening hours. Most areas less than a half inch. No severe storms expected. - Frost possible (33 to 36 degrees) across portions of central SD early Tuesday morning. Much better potential for widespread frost/freeze conditions Wednesday morning. Temperatures forecast around 29-33 degrees. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Update for 06Z Aviation discussion. UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Due to the cloud cover, temperatures should remain fairly steady overnight. Increased lows a few degrees across the board, leaning toward the HRRR and ConsShort. That leaves lows on the cusp of frost advisory under the current headlines. Will leave headlines as-is for now, but confidence is low in temperatures below 37 degrees except in valleys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Starting to see an uptick in areal coverage of showers (embedded thundershowers) as activity continues moving north-northeast across the region. Instability is lacking today, so don't expect anything in the way of severe storms. Did some massaging of PoPs through late afternoon into early evening to account for radar trends and expectations. Total rainfall amounts forecast to remain less than a half inch for most areas. Later tonight into early Tuesday morning, surface high pressure settles in across the western Dakotas. Chilly temperatures in the 30s are forecast across the CWA tonight, and there are some concerns about frost potential with temps dropping to between 33 and 36 degrees. Clouds are expected much of the night, along with a northwest breeze, so certainly not ideal radiational cooling conditions. In fact, inherited NBM lows seemed a tad too cool, so blended in some warmer (ConsMOS) readings to bring readings up a couple degrees in spots. All said and done, forecast lows across central SD are generally between 33 and 36 degrees, so have therefore issued a Frost Advisory for the western CWA. Much better potential for more widespread frost/freeze conditions late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the surface high is more overhead. Winds are expected to be lighter, with mostly clear skies (especially for eastern areas) leading to better radiational cooling conditions. Current forecast lows are closer to 30-32 degrees for many areas. Highly likely more headlines are in store. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will return by 22Z at all TAF locations, with MVFR ceilings lingering longest at ATY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for SDZ003>005-009-010-015-016-033>035-045. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...20 DISCUSSION...TMT AVIATION...06  465 FXUS63 KEAX 190538 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1238 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...06 Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Significant threat for severe weather across NW Missouri this evening with destructive hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. This threat will transition to a damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes as scattered storms develop into a line and build southeast. * Substantial flood threat tonight across the region with rainfall rates expected to exceed 2"/hr. Flood watch in effect tonight into Tuesday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1.5-3+" with pockets exceeding 5". * Cooler and drier conditions develop on Tuesday and continue into Wednesday. * Rainfall chances return to the region Thursday through the end of the weeekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Mature trailing stratiform MCS worked through the area overnight leading to a widespread 1-2 inches of rain across the region. Saw MCS backbuild across central Missouri through the late morning, keeping temperatures quite cool through mid-day. Have seen signs of gravity waves emanating from the tail end of the the MCS, spreading to the north-northwest. Have started to see some partial-rapid clearing across eastern KS into western Missouri leading to nice warming- roughly west of I-35. Pseudo warm front/outflow boundary is poised just south of the forecast area across central Missouri. This boundary may try to lift north through the late afternoon hours. If that occurs, could see an isolated storms develop south of a line from Butler through Clinton leading to large hail/gusty winds. Expect surface temperatures to continue to warm through the afternoon hours into the upper 70s to 80s, leading to rapidly increasing instability. By late this afternoon, expect moderate to extreme instability with SB CAPE values of 4000-5000 J/kg roughly along and west of the I-35 corridor. Surface low pressure centered near Salina KS is expected to lift northeast this afternoon to southwest Iowa into the evening. Discreet supercells have already begun developing across central into northern KS, building east in time in what is a very volatile environment. 0-6 km shear is in the 40-50 knot range across eastern KS should easily support supercells, with the potential for very large hail and tornadoes. Expect supercells to remain discreet building into Northwest Missouri in the early evening hours, capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds and the potential for strong tornadoes. As the severe weather event evolves, expect the supercells to evolve into a squalline and build southeast in time. Expect severe threat to transition towards damaging winds, but could still see QLCS tornadoes with embedded supercells along the line. Training storms, along with precipitable water values of nearly two inches and deep warm cloud depths will lead to efficient rainfall. CAMs have been fairly consistent with another 1.5-3+" of rainfall across the region tonight, with pockets of 5+". HREF and REFs probabilities for 2"/hr rainfall rates are approaching 50%. Flash flood guidance across the area is low with the recent rains, generally running from 1-2.5"/6 hour period. Collaborated with WPC and surrounding offices to raise excessive rainfall outlook to moderate across most of the area. Cams suggest storms may linger Tuesday morning as the surface boundary moves slowly through the area. Have extended the flood watch through 18Z south of the Missouri River. Much cooler conditions are expected midweek behind the front with high in the 60s and lows in the 40s. A developing trough late week across the Northern Plains could bring additional instability showers andstorms to the region as early as Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to shift east and away from the TAF sites through the night. Stratiform rain along with isolated thunderstorm activity will continue overnight behind this line of severe thunderstorms before coming to an end. CIGS are expected to lower to IFR and MVFR overnight as rain tapers off, and then gradually rise through the morning and afternoon on Tuesday, becoming VFR in the afternoon. Winds will be shifting tonight to west and northwest, then out of the north during the day on Tuesday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ020>022-028>033- 037>040-043>046-053-054. Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>007-011>016- 023-024. KS...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...WFO EAX  482 FXUS63 KSGF 190539 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1239 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Moderate Risk (3 out of 4) for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall that may result in flash flooding this afternoon and another round overnight. A Flood Watch in effect for an area north of Interstate 44 towards the Highway 54 corridor. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches. - A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts and large hail to the size of quarters. - A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms overnight tonight into Tuesday. A line of thunderstorms expected to quickly move through the area, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. There is a lower chance for a few, brief tornadoes. - Additional rainfall chances (40-70%) mid to late week along with cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows southwest flow aloft with a strong shortwave over Colorado. There is a compact shortwave currently moving into Arkansas. While the low level jet has weakened, it remains out of the southwest around 35-40kts over the area. An outflow boundary from overnight storms was beginning to wash out however it remains west to east from about Barton County east/northeast to Phelps county. A moist and unstable airmass continues over the area with the 12Z sounding measuring 2500j/kg MU CAPE and 0-6km shear around 30kts. Thunderstorms continue to develop along and north of that outflow boundary, especially in the Flood Watch area. Temperatures varied drastically with 60s along/north of Highway 54 to lower 80s further south. Thunderstorm/Flood Threat This Afternoon: Latest meso trends and 12z HREF/REFS supports continued development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over the northern half of the area. Given the CAPE/Shear combo, a few severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging winds the most likely hazards. Flash flooding will be a concern in the Flood Watch area, especially locations that have received several inches of rainfall already. There should be a decreasing trend in storm coverage closer to 6-9pm. Round of thunderstorms Overnight/Tuesday: Confidence is high that significant severe storms will develop in Kansas this afternoon and evening along a cold front and an area of high shear and high instability. The storms look to quickly grow upscale into a QLCS and will expand southwest towards Oklahoma. Latest guidance suggests that the QLCS will move southeast and enter our southeast Kansas and western Missouri counties shortly after midnight. ML CAPE around 1500j/kg and 0-3km shear around 30kts will allow for the potential for damaging winds to be the most likely hazard as this line of storms moves southeast through the area. We will need to monitor for any line segments that can surge/pivot to the east-northeast as there will be a potential for a brief tornado, especially locations west of Highway 65. There remains uncertainty with respect to the exact timing of the line as it moves through the area however it should be along the I-44 corridor in the 4am to 8am time frame. The instability levels will continue to decrease overnight therefore an overall weakening trend seems likely as storms move southeast of I-44 early Tuesday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is possible with the storms overnight. We did extend the Flood Watch until 18Z Tuesday to account for the next round of rainfall. The remainder of Tuesday is uncertain as there are questions about how fast the front moves through the area during the day. There area few CAMS that suggest that storms intensify during the afternoon, mainly southeast of I-44. Large hail and damaging winds would be the most likely hazards if storms redevelop/intensify Tuesday afternoon. Considerable uncertainty exists with additional updates likely. Temps will also begin to fall quickly behind the front with 60s in some areas by late Tuesday afternoon. Additional post frontal showers look likely Tuesday evening as additional energy moves through the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Additional Rain Chances/Cooler Weather Mid/Late Week: Ensemble data continues to suggests that the overall upper level pattern west/southwest with several disturbances moving through the region. The front that moves through Tuesday looks to stay south of the area Wednesday however given the flow, additional precip chances are possible south of I-44. The front does appear to attempt to lift north into the area Thursday and persist through Saturday. Precip chances currently from the NBM are rather pessimistic with chances greater than 50% at times, especially closer to Thursday and Friday. Currently not seeing a signal for severe storms or flooding. Temps will remain cooler than previous days, especially Wednesday with slowly climbing temps closer to 80 degrees by the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A line of showers and storms will move across the Ozarks during the overnight hours into Tuesday morning. Cloud cover will increase as the storms approach and overtake the regions terminals. Where showers develop and in the wake of storms, MVFR ceilings will prevail with periods of MVFR visibilities in rain. Through around 12z Tuesday, surface winds will be gusty until the storms move part the airfield and winds become northerly. By Tuesday afternoon into the evening, continued cloud cover will bring persistent MVFR ceilings with some IFR ceilings possible by late Tuesday afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ073. MO...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071- 078>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Hatch  651 FXUS62 KMFL 190543 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 143 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through at least Wednesday evening as breezy easterly winds prevail. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are the main threats. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all urban areas through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Rinse and repeat weather pattern similar to what we've seen the last few days across South Florida. A cut-off upper low will continue to meander near the Bahamas, edging slightly closer to Florida through the middle of the week. This disturbance looks to advect a few vorticity impulses into the vicinity of Florida's eastern coastline. This will provide some extra forcing for isolated to scattered showers to develop along the instability ridden Gulfstream waters during the overnight and morning hours for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The 00z MFL sounding shows quite a moist environment, with a PWAT of 1.91 inches and high relative humidity values from top to bottom. Along with CAPE values near 2000 J/kg, this has allowed for some gusty showers to develop across Miami Dade over the last few hours. Light showers should continue through the early morning hours before activity then shifts to sea-breeze induced thunderstorms over interior and southwest Florida. Predominant easterly flow should once again keep the Gulf breeze pinned closer to the coastline, so highest PoPs and strongest storms will favor coastal Monroe and Collier counties for both today and Wednesday. Thermodynamics will be similar to the last few days, with steep low level lapse rates and surface based CAPE values up to 3000 J/kg. Weak forcing, weak steering flow, and weak shear, will make for most activity to be pulse-y and slow moving, with new updrafts mainly forming along collision boundaries. Model forecast soundings and upper level water vapor imagery seem to indicate that some increased mid-level dry air will work its way into the region over the next couple of days. This may be part of the reason as to why models have trended slightly drier for Tuesday's activity. This may also serve to suppress more mature storm growth, so confidence for any strong to severe thunderstorms is once again very low and most activity should remain relatively low topped. On the flip side, "if" thunderstorms grow big enough (and that's a big "if" given the weak mid-level lapse rates), the drier mid-level air could help induce a few stronger wind gusts, which is supported by DCAPE values near 750 J/kg. What is described above would also be true for Wednesday's activity, except conditions trend slightly drier with PWATs dropping into the 1.4 to 1.5 inch range. Overall, the main threats will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Rain amounts will generally be between 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with locally heavier amounts of 3 to 5 inches under stronger storms. Generally breezy easterly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 28 mph across the region during the afternoon. High temperatures slightly above average, in the upper 80s to low 90s, will lead to widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all metro areas. Nighttime lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s near the coasts and lower 70s inland. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Longwave ridging will be the dominant pattern aloft for the eastern CONUS during the middle portion of the week. Florida will find itself in between an H5 centroid to its west over the southern Gulf and an H5 centroid to its east near Bermuda. Within the overall ridging pattern, ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement of showing a cut off low meandering around the northern Caribbean just east of the Bahamas. This area of low pressure will provide increased forcing for storms over the Atlantic waters as several lobes of vorticity advect westward near the vicinity of the Florida coastline. Florida will remain under rich moisture through the period, but some deeper pockets look to raise PWATs to near 1.8 inches, which is within the 75th percentile for this time of year. At the surface, winds will remain mostly easterly, but wind speeds will be slightly weaker than in the beginning of the week as pressure gradients relax across the eastern seaboard. As a result of this predominant easterly flow, the Gulf breeze won't be able to advance as far east. This will result in most afternoon thunderstorm activity favoring interior and portions of southwest Florida each day. Overall, PoPs will generally be in the 30% to 40% range across the peninsula each day, with higher 55% to 65% PoPs along the sea breeze convergence zones. Main threats will be frequent lightning, locally heavy downpours, and gusty winds. Despite the cutoff low nearby, 500 mb heights will actually be between 586 to 589 dm across South Florida, which is near to slightly above average for this time of year. This will in turn lead to slightly above normal temperatures area wide, with high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. With moisture staying steady throughout the week, heat indices will remain in the upper 90s and lower 100s through the period as well. Zooming into the forecast a little bit, diurnal heating will drive most of these high temperatures each afternoon. But, with increased chances of showers moving onshore from the Gulfstream during the morning (particularly for the middle part of the week), cloud cover and rain may keep things cooler over certain spots during the day. Conversely, increased cloud cover and rain during the nighttime hours may suppress radiational cooling and keep things slightly warmer overnight. For the most part, widespread Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) is expected each day. However, long range ensembles are indicating that pressure heights will increase slightly as longwave ridging shifts east and the cut off low dissolves. This will result in warmer temperatures for the weekend, with the NWS Prototype Probabilistic HeatRisk tool showing a 40 to 50 percent chance of Major heat impacts for the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered vicinity showers look to continue through the morning hours along the eastern areas, which may create brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Breezy easterly winds of 10 to 15 kts will persist through the period with gusts up to 25 kts during the afternoon hours. Scattered thunderstorms will favor interior and southwest Florida later this afternoon, mainly affecting KAPF. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected to continue through the rest of today across the Atlantic waters due to persistent easterly winds of 15 to 20 kts. Winds look to weaken slightly for the latter half of the week. Isolated weak showers are possible for the Gulfstream waters through the morning each day this week. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will favor the Gulf coast and Gulf waters, where gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any storm. Atlantic seas will be 2-4 feet through the rest of the week, while the Gulf will remain 2 feet orless. && .BEACHES... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Continued High Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches through the middle of the week due to persistent easterly flow. Guidance is beginning to show that the risk of rip currents will start to taper off towards the latter half of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 87 78 88 77 / 40 20 20 10 West Kendall 88 74 89 74 / 40 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 88 77 89 77 / 40 20 20 10 Homestead 87 77 88 76 / 40 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 86 78 86 78 / 40 30 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 77 86 77 / 30 30 30 10 Pembroke Pines 89 78 90 78 / 40 20 30 10 West Palm Beach 86 78 87 77 / 30 20 10 10 Boca Raton 86 79 86 78 / 30 20 20 20 Naples 92 75 92 74 / 70 10 70 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMP LONG TERM....NMP AVIATION...NMP  666 FXUS62 KMLB 190543 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 143 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Isolated/scattered showers and storms through the week, especially south of Cape Canaveral. A slight increase in rain chances is forecast this weekend, areawide. - A Moderate HeatRisk gradually expands across east central Florida, especially late week into the weekend; adequate hydration and breaks from the heat will be important for those spending time outdoors. - High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at ALL central Florida Atlantic beaches. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Now-Tonight...Showers and scattered storms from this morning have continued into the early part of the afternoon along the Treasure Coast. This is where 1.6-1.7"+ PW exist, according to GOES-derived PW imagery. Farther north, mostly dry conditions continue with temperatures in the mid/upper 80s. CAMs are suggesting a gradual end to coastal rain/storms, transitioning activity toward the west FL coast late this afternoon and evening. However, model initialization has lagged behind what is being observed on radar, so trends will be monitored for coastal activity to linger a bit longer. East- southeast winds remain gusty, reaching 25 mph at times. Across the interior, wind speeds are forecast to decrease after sunset to 5-10 mph. Along the coast from the Cape southward, persistent easterly flow looks to keep winds elevated (10-15 mph) through the night. As a result, mid 70s are forecast along the Volusia/north Brevard coast while lows in the upper 70s are expected. Isolated coastal showers and occasional lightning strikes cannot be ruled out overnight, though chances are low (15-20%). Tuesday-Sunday...Not a whole lot of change is expected to our overall setup from mid week into the Memorial Day weekend. Surface high pressure remains anchored well offshore over the Atlantic with an H5 ridge well north of Florida. There is a broad mid level low that rotates toward the ECFL coast Wednesday, helping to moisten 300- 500mb layer a bit more. It remains to be seen whether that will at all support any more shower/storm coverage, particularly at the coast. By the end of the week, this feature becomes rather disorganized while moving away from ECFL, toward the Bahamas. With continued ESE flow, rain chances that start the day at the coast will again end across the interior and west coast of FL. Precip chances increase modestly Friday into the weekend as moisture increases areawide. This update carries a 40-55% chance for showers and storms each afternoon, which is a slight downward trend from this morning's forecast (but closer to climo). H5 temps will be warming as well, so the primary concern with any stronger storm would be gusty winds. High temperatures warm into the low 90s for much of the area after Thursday, with the coast remaining in the upper 80s behind the daily sea breeze. Gusts around 20-25 mph along and in the wake of the sea breeze are likely to continue as well. With additional moisture comes a higher heat index, forecast to reach the upper 90s to low 100s Friday-Sunday. Warm and muggy conditions each night will provide little relief around the clock, so at least a Moderate HeatRisk is forecast. For those considering beach plans this holiday weekend, a moderate to high risk of rip currents will continue as onshore winds persist. Always heed the advice of lifeguards! When red flags are flying, entering the water is strongly discouraged. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 East-southeast flow, gusty at times, remains through the week as high pressure remains anchored well offshore. Embedded in the onshore flow at times are isolated to scattered showers and storms, some of which contain frequent lightning and gusty winds around 30 kt. Outside of storms, seas may briefly build to 5 ft overnight but generally remain 2-4 ft through late week. Small craft should exercise caution, offshore south of the Cape and in the nearshore Treasure Coast waters tonight. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 143 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Mostly VFR, although brief MVFR CIG reductions could still be observed in vicinity of showers. Rounds of isolated onshore moving showers continue along the coast this morning, reaching as far inland as SFB. These low shower chances should diminish this afternoon after the sea breeze passes, but could linger a little longer at SUA. Cannot rule out an occasional lightning storm. East winds increase 12-15 kts behind the sea breeze again today with locally higher gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 High pressure centered well offshore will help maintain east- southeasterly winds through the week and into the weekend. Sustained winds during the day of 10-20 mph with gusts around 25 mph are possible, along with briefly higher gusts embedded in showers or isolated lightning storms. The greatest chance for rain and storms will be south of the Cape, transitioning inland with the afternoon east coast sea breeze. However, many locations will remain dry. Recent dryness will prolong fire sensitive conditions, and any lightning strikes could lead to new fire starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 73 87 73 / 20 10 10 10 MCO 89 72 89 72 / 20 0 30 10 MLB 86 77 86 76 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 86 76 87 75 / 10 20 20 10 LEE 90 72 90 72 / 20 0 30 10 SFB 90 72 90 72 / 20 0 20 10 ORL 89 72 89 72 / 20 0 30 10 FPR 86 75 86 74 / 10 20 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Law  656 FXUS64 KLCH 190543 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1243 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled pattern will be in place from late Tuesday into the weekend as the southern jet stream brings a series of upper level disturbances to work with a very moist air mass. - The showers and thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates and there is a risk of heavy rainfall and a risk for flooding into early next week. - Temperatures will remain on the warm and humid side. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 With a low pressure system along a frontal boundary over the Southern Plains, gradient is expected to stay up enough for southeast winds to bring in low level Gulf moisture. This will allow for low clouds to form under the cap and make for a muggy night. During Tuesday, a cap around 70H is expected to hang around that will help suppress convection for the most part with just some hit or miss type storms during the afternoon. Hot and muggy conditions will continue on Tuesday. The first question in the forecast is for Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Frontal boundary over the Southern Plains will continue to sag southeast and initiate showers and thunderstorms over north central and northeast Texas on Tuesday afternoon. Just how strong this activity gets and the strength of any convective outflow boundary will tell if the forecast area receives any shower activity during the evening into the overnight hours. Some of the CAMs indicate a MCS forming that will be able to make it into the northwest portion of the forecast area before weakening. Therefore, a marginal risk of both severe weather (mainly winds) and excessive rainfall will be outlined to account for this. A shift to a more active pattern will come by Wednesday that looks to last through this week and even into next week bringing high chances for rain and above climo norm precipitation amounts. Generally an upper level trough will be found across the Western US into the Rockies with an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf and northwest Caribbean. In between the sub-tropical jet will stream over the forecast area bringing mid and upper level moisture from the Tropical Pacific to go along with the low level Gulf moisture. This will allow the forecast area to see a highly anomalous moist air mass with daily PWAT values over the 90th percentile of 1.79 inches and near the Max Moving Average of 2+ inches. Meanwhile, mean layer relative humidity between 100H-50H will be over 80 percent. Warm cloud precipitation processes will also be noted as the warm cloud layer is projected to be from 11k to 15k feet, noting an almost tropical like air mass. So, we do know that there will be several days of high rain chances with possible locally heavy rainfall and a flood risk. WPC has outlined a majority of the forecast area in a Marginal (1 out of 4) or at least a 5 percent chance of excessive rainfall leading to flooding for each day through Friday, and extended WPC hazards keep a risk of heavy rainfall with flooding possible all the way through May 27. What is of a lower confidence is the timing each day of when the precipitation will be the most widespread and at its heaviest. It will not rain all the time, but the timing of each upper level disturbance and if it comes during max daytime heating, will be the story of when the rain chances will be the highest. So each day will be more fine tuned the closer in time we get to each day. Otherwise, temperatures will remain rather warm with humid conditions through the period. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 With low pressure over the Southern Plains, southerly boundary layer winds will stay up enough during the overnight that fog is not expected with MVFR ceilings developing below the cap. Breezy southerly winds will again occur after sunrise on Tuesday with ceilings gradually lifting to VFR after 19/18z. The cap is expected to hold enough that convection is expected to be very spotty during the afternoon. There is the possibility of a complex of thunderstorms to move into the forecast area after 20/00z, however there is not enough confidence to mention anything other than vicinity convection to account for it. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Breezy onshore winds will decrease some by morning with light to moderate southeast flow and light to modest seas then expected to persist through the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase by Wednesday and remain high through the week into the weekend as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances produce several waves of precipitation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Expect modest southerly winds to continue through the next several days bringing in rich amounts of Gulf moisture. Afternoon Minimum RH values will be above 60 percent through the week. High chances for daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week into early next week as a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper level disturbances provide waves of precipitation each day. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ450-452-470-472. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07 AVIATION...07  634 FXUS65 KBOU 190542 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1142 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and mountain/foothill snow will gradually decrease through this evening. A few wet snowflakes may still mix in for the I-25 Corridor. - Near freezing temperatures and frost/freeze highlights for most of the plains, but some uncertainty as to how cold with more lingering cloud cover. - Still unsettled Tuesday through Thursday with scattered to numerous showers and a few storms, most numerous in/near the Front Range. - Warming and drying trend for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Satellite shows the upper level trough ejecting east/northeast across the forecast area this afternoon, with an enhanced band of precipitation and even a couple thunderstorms moving east across the forecast area. The precipitation will weaken as it moves onto the eastern plains as the upper level trough continues to shear and weaken, and upper level support is replaced by weak subsidence. After the trough passage, we still have some weak upslope to work with so we'll delay the dissipation of showers in/near the Front Range overnight. In fact, a few light showers could linger well past midnight, with the last of them dissipating in/near the southern foothills toward daybreak Tuesday. All existing Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories will remain in tact through 9 pm, but any travel impacts should be waning as precipitation rates decrease. Still can't rule out a few snowflakes mixing in with the snow down toward the I-25 Urban Corridor during heaviest convective showers this afternoon and then this evening as temperatures aloft cool slightly. With regard to the potential freeze across the plains tonight. The latest trends are for more clouds and higher low level moisture, making it more difficult for temperatures to drop. We think most of the Denver/Boulder metro area will stay just above freezing due to mostly cloudy skies persisting through the night, while the plains north and east of Denver could see areas of frost with partial clearing but still some light northerly winds. The Palmer Divide should still end up colder so went with a Freeze Warning there, but even then only the higher elevations above 6500 feet would be most prone to sub freezing temperatures. On Tuesday, the airmass will be more stable but there's still enough moisture and shallow instability for late day shower/isolated storm development in/near the higher terrain. That shower development and coverage will also be supported by weak QG forcing. Temperatures will remain well below normal, with highs only in the 50s over most of the plains. Wednesday should see an uptick in convective shower/storm coverage in the afternoon as lapse rates aloft become moist adiabatic, and we continue to see weak forcing as the mean upper level trough axis holds off to our west. Temperatures will only moderate a few degrees, and still be 10-15 degrees below normal. The trend for Thursday has been toward more active and stronger convective development. The main reason behind this is a stronger and deeper upper level trough dropping southeast across the Rockies. That will support steeper lapse rates, and combined with moderate low level moisture means increasing instability. MLCAPE from various more reliable progs indicate 500-1000 J/kg across most of the plains and I-25 Corridor, so there will be potential for a couple severe storms. As long as this trough passes by Thursday night (and the slower passage has continued in the latest ensemble means), Friday should finally trend drier. Temperatures will then start a warming trend for this weekend with more zonal flow advertised in the ensembles, soeventually we should return to near or above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1125 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR and IFR conditions are still prevalent across the area, with isolated to scattered light rain and drizzle near the TAF sites. Isolated light showers are expected to continue on and off for the next few hours before we see a brief break in precip chances in the late morning and early afternoon. This break will be short lived as additional scattered showers move over the area in the mid afternoon through the late evening. High res models are showing slightly better rain coverage for the 00Z to 06Z time frame, compared to a bit earlier in the afternoon. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to continue overnight, with CIGs around 600ft to 2000ft. Ceilings will start to lift tomorrow late morning and afternoon, but CIGs will still remain around 3000ft to 5000ft at their max before starting to lower again for Tuesday night. Winds during this TAF package will generally remain on the lighter side,with speeds mainly staying below 12kts. Wind directions are a bit uncertain in the late morning and afternoon as some models are showing outflow boundaries from overnight and morning convection moving through the area. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ038-042>051. Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ041. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...AP  844 FXUS63 KGID 190545 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1245 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A handful of severe storms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado will be possible between 3-8PM today. The severe threat will mainly be for places near and east of HWY-81. - A few showers, areas of drizzle and non-severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across areas outside of the severe threat. - Highs, following the passage of a cold front today, will peak in the 50s and 60s for much of the area. A few north central Kansas locations as well as far southeast Nebraska areas could see highs in the 70s. - The next chance of precipitation will come Wednesday night (40-50% chance). - Highs the rest of the week will stay in the 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday, the low to mid 70s for Friday and the upper 70s to low 80s for Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A broad upper level trough over the Rockies has been the driving force for severe weather yesterday and today. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave crossing much of the Central Plains this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are currently going up along a boundary stretching from Hebron, NE to Lincoln, KS, as of 2:30 PM CDT. The main threat are a few tornadoes, golf ball size hail, and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Severe weather is forecast for Mitchell and Jewell continues in KS and Thayer county in NE. Storms will move out the region by the late afternoon with a majority of the severe weather threat off to the east. Areas behind the cold front, which is much of the county warning area, will see low stratus lingering into tonight causing light rain and drizzle. Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop down into the mid to upper 30s across the county warning area. However, cloud cover and elevated winds, around 15 mph, will likely keep frost from forming. Low stratus should start to clear out by the early morning hours west to east. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to climb up into the 60s. Low temperatures tomorrow night are forecast to drop down into the lower to mid 30s across the northern half of the warning area. Unlike tonight, winds are forecast to be on the lighter side allowing frost to potentially form. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Central Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the region Wednesday bringing forth chances for more precipitation. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side through the middle of the week as the cooler airmass lingers across the Plains. Thus, temperatures are forecast to range from the 60s to low 70s through Friday. Daily chances for thunderstorms returns from Wednesday night into the weekend. NSSL machine learning program and the CSU machine learning program are pegging Friday with a low chance of Severe weather mainly across the southern half of the county warning area. It is possible this low chance of severe weather shifts further south. Temperatures will warm this weekend as an upper level ridge begins to build across the Central US. This warm pattern will continue into early next with conditions drying out. The NBM 25th to 75th percentiles have high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to the mid 90s. Thus, fairly high confidence on above normal temperatures to start out next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Low ceilings tonight will impact the terminals across part of the morning. IFR conditions look to be done and through for the night with just MVFR conditions left in place. A few clearing clouds just west of the Kearney area may soon break apart the MVFR ceilings at KEAR within the next 2-4 hours. MVFR ceilings will likely be slower to clear at KEAR (closer to 12-14z). No precipitation will be expected at either site through the day today. Winds start out at their strongest point today (15-20kts and gusting up to 25-30kts) with speeds expected to gradually slow down through the rest of the day. Light and variable winds are expected to materialize after 2z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Stump  846 FXUS63 KLBF 190545 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1245 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold temperatures may lead to frost and freezing temperatures with the greatest threat generally west of highway 83. - Temperatures will be below normal through Friday with warmer readings expected Saturday through Monday. - Best precipitation chances are Thursday night through Friday. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored to the north of the Bahamas. Ridging extended north of this feature into the Mid- Atlantic and western Quebec. West of the ridge, broad southwesterly flow extended across the eastern half of the CONUS to the central and southern plains. Low pressure was located over central Utah with a trough extending south into eastern Arizona. A second shortwave trough was located over southern Saskatchewan and extended south into north central Montana. Further west, a ridge of high pressure extended across British Columbia north into the Yukon and western portions of the NW Territories of Canada. At the surface this afternoon, low pressure was located over southeastern Minnesota. A cold front extended south, then southwest of this feature into far SE Nebraska and SW Kansas. High pressure was anchored over northern Montana this afternoon. Winds were from the north or northeast across the forecast area this afternoon. Drizzle and very light rainfall was present across the area and temperatures ranged from 40 degrees at Gordon to 45 degrees at Ogallala. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Weak forcing will remain in place across northwestern and northern portions of the forecast area this evening with a lingering threat for precipitation. This threat will end during the overnight hours as weak high pressure builds into Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. This will result in some limited clearing, especially over western portions of the forecast area overnight. With lows forecast around the freezing mark, generally west of highway 61, decided to hoist a freeze warning for locations generally west of highway 61 tonight. Further east, overnight lows will bottom out in the 33 to 35 degree range and decided to hoist a frost advisory. This was in areas where the threat for freeze conditions is limited and cloud cover may become more of a factor overnight. Will we see frost in the advisory area remains uncertain and the latest NBM ensembles only have a 25 to 50 percent chance for sub 34 degree temps along the highway 83 corridor tonight so the advisory is a low to medium confidence advisory. On Tuesday, high pressure will nose into the forecast area from the west leading to limited clearing Tuesday afternoon. Highs Tuesday will struggle to get out of the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. High pressure will slide east into Iowa Tuesday night shifting winds to the south. A weak boundary will lift north overnight into southern Nebraska. At the same time, a weak upper level disturbance will emerge from the central Rockies into northeastern Colorado. Light precipitation will develop in advance of this feature and along the frontal boundary overnight Tuesday night. This will lead to a small threat for precipitation mainly over western and southwestern Nebraska overnight. Further northeast, skies will be mainly clear overnight, and with light winds expected and lows in the middle 30s, will have to watch out for frost potential in the NE forecast area Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A stationary front over southern Kansas, will lift north as a warm front on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop INVOF this feature Wednesday into WEdnesday night as it lifts north into central and northern Kansas. Some very light precipitation north of the warm front, mainly drizzle, may impact southern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night. Any precipitation amounts will be very light across the area and precipitation chances will be limited to slight and low end chance pops. A potent mid level trough will slide east from the central and northern Rockies Thursday into Thursday night. In advance of this feature, low level moisture advection will increase across the forecast area with low level dew points approaching the lower 50s. As this feature emerges onto the high plains Thursday night, the latest deterministic GFS and EC solns develop a decent chance for precipitation Thursday night through Friday night. The current NBM forecast does have some low likely pops Thursday night into Friday across the forecast area. Given the forecast QPF's and the QPF probabilities from the NBM ensembles, likely pops seem justified attm. Conditions will begin to dry out after Friday as a more zonal low amplitude pattern develops across the western CONUS. Temperatures will warm back into the 70s for Saturday, then 80s for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Low stratus will continue to hamper aviation operations across western Nebraska through the early morning Tuesday. CIGs will begin to improve after daybreak, initially in the north with a gradual southward push. VFR conditions are then expected through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will favor northwesterly early with sporadic gusts around 20 knots with a shift to more easterly by late in the period with speeds falling to less than 10 knots. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ004-022>024-035-036-056-057-094. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ005-006-008-025-026-037-058-059-069-070. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...NMJ  932 FXUS64 KHGX 190547 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1247 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, breezy, and muggy conditions will continue for the next several days. - Multiple rounds of showers/storms expected beginning late Tuesday through the end of the work week. A few storms could be strong to severe and multiple rounds of rainfall could lead to minor/street flooding. - Elevated winds, seas, and rip current risk in the bay/Gulf waters and beaches through at least midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 BLUF: The weather pattern begins to change this week with multiple chances for rain and storms continuing well into the Memorial Day weekend. Localized heavy rain and isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible. Remain weather aware this week for the latest forecast updates and make sure you have multiple ways to receive alerts. A warm and muggy start to the workweek with mostly cloudy skies and breezy southerly winds. A few showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon despite a strong 700:850 mb capping inversion. Strong moisture transport along with a decent LLJ will be enough to support this activity this afternoon and evening. A warm and muggy night is anticipated with lows in the upper 70s to near 80s. A deep longwave trough deepening over the Rockies will continue to eject multiple impulses of energy along the southwest flow aloft. This parade of disturbances will move through Southeast Texas while at the surface, a frontal boundary will attempt to sag southward into north-central TX before stalling somewhere between the Dallas/Fort Worth area and the Brazos Valley region through the end of the week. Total rainfall amounts will strongly depend on where this boundary stalls. The first round of showers and thunderstorms (first round of a series of mesoscale convective systems (MCS's)) is forecast to arrive to Southeast TX on Tuesday. Given the nature of these shortwaves, it is difficult to pin-point specific timing. Latest hi-res guidance suggests scattered activity in the afternoon, bringing the first MCS Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Forecast rainfall amounts during this time frame is expected to be between 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Scattered showers and storms will continue on Wednesday before the next MCS's arrives early Thursday and additional systems persists into the weekend. With PWAT values near/at the climatological max for this time of year, combined with enough forcing and a deep warm cloud layer, rounds of moderate heavy rainfall will be possible. As noted in the previous discussion, earlier rainfall this week will serve to prime the soil. This saturated grounds will lead to a rapid transition to runoff, especially in areas experiencing repeated rounds of rain. Under this type of scenario, rainfall rates of 3 to 4+ in/hr are possible in the heaviest downpours. Overall, 3 to 6 inches of rain is forecast Thursday through Sunday, with localized higher amounts possible. Hazards: Severe Weather: Thunderstorms could become strong to severe with the first round of storms Tuesday into Wednesday. There is a Slight risk of severe weather mainly for our northwestern counties (Brazos Valley). The main severe weather risk is damaging winds. Hail up to a quarter sized will also be possible. Heavy Rainfall: A Marginal risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) is expected most of the week. A slight risk (level 2 of 4) is forecast for Thursday for portions of the Brazos Valley area. We will continue to monitor trends as these systems evolve in the coming days. A Flood Watch may need to be considered later this week. Stay tuned to the forecast not only through the week but also through the holiday weekend as this unsettled pattern looks to remain through early next week. JM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR cigs along with occasionally gusty SE winds expected overnight into Monday morning. Cigs improve to VFR in most areas by late morning. The primary weather concern will be the potential for a line of heavy shra/tsra late afternoon and evening that should approach the region from the north and west. A few widely scattered thunderstorms could develop ahead of the line during the afternoon hours as well. Storms could contain strong gusty winds. We have TSRA TEMPO groups w/ gusts to 25 knots. However, these gusts could be conservative given the potential for severe thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Gusty southeast flow and enhanced Gulf seas will continue into Tuesday. However, the primary weather concern will be the potential for strong thunderstorms overnight tonight and into Tuesday. Thunderstorm winds could easily exceed gale force and result in locally higher seas. It is important to note that thunderstorm related winds can be felt tens of miles away from the storm. Thunderstorms can also result in sudden changes in wind direction. As for the rest of the week, expect generally light to moderate south to southeast winds and 3-4 ft seas. There will be a continued daily risk of showers and thunderstorms, with locally higher winds and seas in the vicinity of any thunderstorm. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Anticipating multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall Tuesday through at least Saturday. These rounds are expected to mostly be in the form of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's). The exact timing of these storms can be a bit tricky as mesoscale factors play a key role (hence the name), but we anticipate the first round to come late Tuesday. With PW values exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates will likely exceed 3-4"/hr in the heaviest downpours. While these lines of storms are typically progressive, the rainfall received early in the week is expected to prime the soils for rounds later in the week. Saturated soils leads to a quicker transition to runoff which brings an increased risk of flooding. We continue to anticipate widespread rainfall totals of 5-7" with isolated higher amounts. The highest rainfall totals are still expected to occur north of I-10. This rainfall will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. Action to minor stage flooding is the most likely outcome, but cannot entirely rule out moderate to isolated major stage flooding depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Landry-Guyton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 89 72 83 72 / 40 70 70 60 Houston (IAH) 89 76 86 75 / 10 60 60 40 Galveston (GLS) 86 79 85 79 / 10 50 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Self MARINE...Self  877 FXUS64 KMOB 190545 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1245 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - A HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect for all area beaches today. - Rain chances increase by mid to late next week, especially over the western half of the forecast area. - Localized patchy fog will be possible this morning and again late tonight into Wednesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 An isolated shower or storm is possible today mainly across south-central Alabama with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday. Thursday isolated to scattered rain and storm chances shift west of I-65, becoming scattered to locally numerous west of the I-65 corridor Friday. Best chances Friday will likely remain confined to southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. As we head into the weekend, rain chances remain elevated as a series of weak shortwaves round the northern periphery of upper ridging with scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms possible. Patchy fog can't be ruled out through this morning and again Wednesday morning, with a few spots potentially seeing locally dense fog. Better chances for fog appear to be Wednesday morning across the area. Any fog will develop late into the overnight hours before lifting fairly quickly after sunrise. Outside of the rain chances, temperatures will be warm near or just above normal for this time of year on both highs and lows throughout the week and into the weekend. Highs generally fall in the 85 to 90 range, with some localized lower 90's possible any given day. Lows will remain in the upper 60's to lower 70's for most locations each night through the weekend. A High risk of rip currents today becomes a Moderate risk Wednesday. A Low to Moderate risk of rip currents will exist Thursday into Friday. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR to IFR ceilings should become IFR to possibly LIFR ceilings over the next few hours. Best chance for reduced ceilings will be mainly west of I-65 and along the I-10 corridor. Low ceilings will quickly return to MVFR then VFR tomorrow with a light southeasterly flow for the remainder of the forecast. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through Saturday. Seas will build slightly through tonight then diminish Wednesday into Thursday. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 87 70 87 70 / 0 0 10 0 Pensacola 84 72 85 72 / 0 0 10 0 Destin 83 71 84 71 / 0 0 10 0 Evergreen 91 67 90 67 / 20 10 30 20 Waynesboro 90 70 89 69 / 10 10 30 20 Camden 89 69 88 68 / 0 10 30 20 Crestview 91 67 91 67 / 20 0 30 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through this evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$  970 FXUS63 KDLH 190549 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1249 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another night with showers and storms possible. Severe risk has decreased and is now isolated to southeast portions of our CWA. Primary threats would be damaging winds and large hail. - Freeze Warning likely needed across most the region for Tuesday night. - Cool temps through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Noted dense fog around the Twin Ports and up over Thompson Hill at KDYT and on webcams, so issued a short-term Dense Fog Advisory. Thinking in coming convection will help to mix this out though it may return later tonight until winds turn northwesterly after midnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Widespread stratus has engulfed most the region in the wake of last nights showers and isolated storms. We are also seeing some areas of fog from the Brainerd Lakes Region and extending northeast through the Twin Ports and up the shore. This layer of stable air will keep temperatures cool with highs staying in the 50s under this cloud deck. Satellite is showing a few pockets of clearing over SE MN and western WI where temperatures will rebound back into the 70s helping to reload instability for this evenings convective potential. However, up in our portion of NW WI there are few breaks in the clouds with low clouds still filtering in from the west, so recovery seems limited. A baroclinic zone will still be draped across the Upper Midwest this afternoon with a surface low pressure centered over SE MN. Through the evening and overnight hours several low pressure systems will ride along this boundary boosting lift and helping to fuel shower and storm development. However, satellite trends through the morning hours have not been favorable for instability recovery and our temperatures across the region remain quite cool when compared to our neighbors to the south. The main threat for severe weather will be well off to our south. As such the SPC has pulled the severe risk down to just our SE corner with a marginal risk. Some strong storms can't be ruled out at this time with some damaging winds and hail at times, but the tornado chances are no longer a concern. Showers are expected to become more widespread later this evening. The two focal points for this activity is the low pressure moving along the stalled boundary and an upper level trough pivoting across the Upper Midwest. Targeted timing for rain entering from the southwest is after 9PM with activity departing to the northeast after 8AM. With the reduced risk for thunderstorms our overall rain totals have come down a bit with most the region seeing between 0.10-0.25" Areas that do see thunderstorms will have locally higher amounts, but the overall risk for flooding has diminished. Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday: Northwest flow and surface high pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday. Cyclonic flow aloft paired with remnant moisture will lead to diurnally driven cumulus and isolated sprinkles across northern MN. Temperatures will be on the cool side for Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Overnight, the high pressure moves over MN with clear skies leading to rapid radiational cooling. Widespread Freeze Warnings will likely be needed across the region. Conditions dry out a bit more on Wednesday with high temps rebounding back into the 50s and 60s. Winds will be light so fire weather concerns are low at this time. By Thursday high pressure departs to the east and we will get southerly return flow streaming back into the region. High temps will continue to climb back into the upper 60s withcooler conditions expected by Lake Superior. Friday-Weekend: An upper level trough is still expected to move across the Northern Plains to end the work week bringing rain chances back to the Northland. Timing of this has been slowed down when compared to previous model runs with 20-30% PoPs now entering Friday afternoon. This will also prompt the return of southwest flow aloft leading to a warming trend. Weekend temperatures in the 70s and some 80s possible with cooler by the Lake still in play. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and storms are moving through the Northland. Lightning is becoming more and more scarce as we lose forcing to sustain thunderstorms. However, the last line of storms will make their way through DLH in the next couple hours, and will move through HYR later on as well. INL and HIB will continue to see showers for the next few hours as well. Northwest flow and cold air advection will lead to some scattered showers throughout the afternoon. Air near the surface will be dry, so these will struggle to reach the ground. So, have included VCSH at all affected terminals for now. Northwest winds will increase this morning and reach up to 15 kts throughout the afternoon. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Light winds currently across the Lake. These winds will increase out of the northeast this evening with Small Craft Advisories in effect. Winds will turn to out of the northwest Tuesday afternoon and weaken. Additionally, a few showers and storms are possible tonight through tomorrow morning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Cloudy today with high Min RHs. Another batch of showers and a few storms are expected to roll over the region the region tonight and exit tomorrow morning. Rain totals have trended down with most areas expected to see between 0.10-0.25" Areas that do get thunderstorm development can expect locally higher amounts. Gusty northwest wind for Tuesday paired with virga and sprinkles in the afternoon. Next dry day will likely be Wednesday, winds will be light though as high pressure moves over the region. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>143. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LSZ144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for LSZ146- 147. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148- 150. && $$ UPDATE...Wolfe DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...KML MARINE...Britt FIRE WEATHER...Britt  946 FXUS63 KILX 190547 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1247 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Repeating rounds of showers and storms could cause flash flooding south of a Shelbyville to Paris line through this evening. A Flood Watch is in effect for these areas. - Additional thunderstorms will develop along an advancing cold front on Tuesday, with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms east of Interstate 55. Damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall would be the most likely hazards. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A line of showers and thunderstorms has stalled out south of the I- 72 corridor this afternoon. Although wind shear has increased over this area since this morning, instability has significantly waned and has prevented storms from largely becoming organized. Despite this, cannot completely rule out a strong updraft or two over the next few hours in far southeast Illinois where RAP mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE of 1000+ J/kg. If any strong storms do occur, damaging winds would be possible. The main threat through the evening will be heavy rainfall with PWATS up around 1.5 to 2 inches and hourly rainfall rates up around 1 inch in the heaviest of storms. A Flood Watch has been issued for areas south of a Shelbyville to Paris line through this evening. Further west, additional thunderstorms have developed over the central Plains ahead of a cold front and will track east through tonight, approaching western Illinois sometime after midnight. These storms should weaken as they enter the area due to lack of instability, though they could still produce gusty subsevere winds as they track through the western half of the state. Most of the shower and storm activity should subside by or before daybreak. The cold front will approach the I-55 corridor around midday Tuesday and be the focus for additional storm development by afternoon. However, one limiting factor will be how long cloud cover from the overnight storms lingers, which would ultimately limit our destabilization potential. CAMS suggest destabilization will be most likely in east-central and southeast Illinois by mid to late afternoon in a moderately sheared environment. However, this appears to be highly conditional at this point. If storms do develop, damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall will be the primary concerns. A drier and cooler period shapes up for midweek as high pressure ridging slides through the Upper Midwest. This will be relatively short-lived as upper troughing moves into the central US and shortwave energy sends several rounds of precipitation through Illinois this weekend into early next week. While the severe weather risk appears low through this period, better moisture/instability building by late weekend/early next week will support thunderstorms at times. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A line of thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front will move into the western central IL terminals KPIA, KSPI, and KBMI from 08Z-12Z, although these storms are expected to be in a weakening state and likely will not maintain as they head into KDEC and KCMI toward east-central IL. Have included TEMPO for TSRA at the western terminals between 08Z and 12Z, but only VCSH and PROB30 for SHRA at the eastern terminals 15Z-19Z. However, redevelopment of storms may begin during the afternoon at the eastern sites with diurnal heating, and have included PROB30 for TSRA 19Z-24Z. MVFR cigs or briefly worse can be expected with TSRA, and an area of MVFR cigs is expected to trail the cold front, arriving at KPIA around 16Z and KDEC-KCMI around 19Z. Low level wind shear will affect the terminals the next several hours due to 45-50 kt winds at 2000 ft AGL. Surface winds SSE 10-18 kts with a few higher gusts overnight, shifting to SSW after 11Z-13Z, then continuing to veer toward NW with gusts increasing to 20-25 kts through the day as the cold front moves through. Winds decreasing after 00Z-02Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...NMA DISCUSSION...NMA AVIATION...37  965 FXUS64 KSJT 190549 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1249 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The main concern in the short term this afternoon through tomorrow will be the potential for severe storms. For today, the main area of concern will be along our western CWA border, generally north of Sterling City. We have plenty of moisture in place with dewpoints in the 60s to around 70 degrees. As warming takes place today, SB CAPEs in excess of 4000 J/kg are possible this afternoon, as a dryline approaches from the west. There is shortwave energy embedded in southwest flow aloft that could aid in initiation of convection. Deep layer shear is not overly impressive, but with the amount of instability available, that would likely be overcome by any storms that can develop to produce severe weather with the primary concerns being large hail and severe wind gusts. The main problem with this afternoon is that most high resolution models maintain enough convective inhibition through this evening to prevent convection from developing. However, considering the amount of instability available, if storms do develop, they should quickly strengthen to severe levels, so will have at least a low (20%) chance for thunderstorms north of I-20 in the western Big Country. For Tuesday, a cold front will move into the area from the north shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. As this front moves south during the morning hours, heating along and south of the front will allow for strong destabilization, with SB CAPE values again approaching 4000 J/kg. The front, along with an approaching shortwave, is expected to provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms by late morning or early afternoon in our area. Deep layer shear values of 20 to 40 knots, combined with the strong instability will any storms that develop to become severe, with the main hazards being large to very hail and damaging winds. And with the frontal boundary available, tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out. Highs south of the front will be able to warm into the lower 90s, while north of Interstate 20, highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By the time Wednesday night rolls around, another low pressure trough strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and continues moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday night. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding through Wednesday night. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this trough moves east for the later half of the work Week. A couple of embedded disturbances within the flow are also being indicated as well, which offers support for multiple rounds of rain. In the meantime, high rain chances (70%) are in place for Thursday. Additional rounds of thunderstorms remain a possibility through at least Friday. We will have to monitor closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential through the end of this week. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR stratus along the I-10 corridor will advect back north across the terminals overnight. Strong south winds with gusts up to 30 KTS at KABI will weaken toward morning. A cold front will move through KABI mid morning, KSJT and KBBD mid afternoon, and KJCT and KSOA in the evening, with scattered showers and thunderstorm along and behind it. There is the potential for very strong winds of 35KTS or more and large hail along and behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 62 77 64 79 / 40 30 90 70 San Angelo 63 79 63 81 / 60 50 90 50 Junction 65 83 64 81 / 80 60 90 60 Brownwood 64 80 64 78 / 60 40 80 70 Sweetwater 61 77 63 80 / 40 40 90 60 Ozona 64 81 63 81 / 60 50 90 40 Brady 64 79 64 78 / 80 50 90 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...04  043 FXUS63 KGRB 190551 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1251 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe storms possible through tonight. Greatest coverage of storms northwest part of the area late this evening and overnight. - Drier and cooler mid to late week. Frost or freeze headlines may be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday night. - Warmer by next weekend with return of rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Main concern is chance of severe storms through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Modified warm front is working through the area from the south. It is running into affects from earlier storms to south and southeast. Subsidence to west of storms over Michigan is resulting in minimal re-development of showers and storms thus far. Decent cu field is blossoming over western WI into central WI, but capping is noted on forecast soundings in these areas rest of the day. Lowered pops to slight chance all areas through 5p. An warm and certainly more humid day by recent standards. Primary convective development this afternoon into early evening will be well to the south over the central Plains. As the warm front lifts north, it could be enough to overcome the capping for a few storms to develop, especially northern WI. Isolated strong storm is possible with MUCAPE up to 1000J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kts. Severe threat will be higher if a storm could become truly surfaced based and occur near the front. Wave to north of this convection over the plains along with approaching sfc low looks to bring best chance of a line of storms late this evening into the overnight hours for central and north-central WI. Main hazard with these storms will be gusty winds and heavy rain. Isolated damaging wind gust could occur if line remains more organized as it moves into the area. Overall the chance for severe weather this afternoon through tonight has trended downward as SPC has trimmed the Slight Risk out of all our forecast area. Leftovers of this overnight line of storms shift by late tonight. A few showers or storms may linger through the morning over eastern WI, just ahead of cold front. The front sweeps through by early afternoon, shifting southwest winds to northwest. Winds will be gusty up to 30 mph. Highs could touch 70 over eastern WI, but will be in the 60s for most, with even some 50s over north-central WI. Beyond Tuesday, rest of the week looks generally dry. Canadian high shifts across late Tuesday through Wednesday night. Frost or freeze headlines may be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday night, especially northern WI. Greatest risk is Wednesday night with high overhead and PWATs less than 0.5 inch. Min RH will be low Wed through Fri afternoon's. Return flow kicks in late this week into next weekend with highs steadily returning to at or above normal. Chances for rain and perhaps some thunder increase by next weekend. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Ongoing line of rain and thunderstorms is moving east across central and into northeast WI as of 0530Z. The main line has exited KAUW, KCWA, and KRHI, but a small thunder threat remains for the next couple hours from additional development to the south. Main hazard along and east of the main line over the next 3 to 4 hours will be strong wind gusts to 40 knots and heavy rain. There remains a small potential for isolated severe wind gusts to 50 knots, but expect this potential to diminish as the storms move east. Widely scattered showers remain throughout Tuesday morning, with conditions area-wide drying out after ~18Z. Most location are still VFR, but expect cigs to drop to IFR/MVFR overnight, with improvements to MVFR/VFR this afternoon. Additionally, fog off Lake Michigan will drop vsby at KMTW at times through Tuesday morning. South winds veer southwest overnight, and then veer to the west- northwest Tuesday behind the cold front, along with wind gusts to 25 kts. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....JLA AVIATION.......KLJ  010 FXUS65 KGJT 190550 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1150 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing temperatures will impact the lower basins of northwest Colorado and northeast Utah Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Freeze Warnings are in effect for both mornings. - Temperatures will start to warm Tuesday onward, finally reaching near-to-above normal levels Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1002 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Radar returns are diminishing across the area though a stray shower along the I-70 corridor and areas just north can't be ruled out. Clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop thanks to the cold front that passed through yesterday. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for the Uinta Basin and northern valleys. Portions of the I-70 corridor may reach freezing or just below but coverage and timing won't last long enough to warrant any highlights there. Same for the southern valleys. The Freeze Watch for Tuesday night into Wednesday has been upgraded to a Warning with this evening's package for the northern valleys as models have not deviated from sub-freezing temperatures there. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER, SLOW WARMUP: An upper level trough will remain draped over the area through the end of the week but with drier air moving in, little in the way of precip is expected. Might see an odd shower over the higher terrain but for the most part we can expect partly cloudy skies as below normal highs Tuesday and Wednesday reach normal values towards the end of the week and above normal highs heading into the weekend. The next chance for precipitation looks to be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning as a system drops down from the north. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1144 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A weak boundary remains draped across the region through Tuesday. This is going to produce some cloud cover through the TAF period. Breakpoint conditions remain possible tonight up against the Continental Divide, but dry air will help erode some of that cloud cover by daybreak. Scattered to broken mid and upper level clouds will remain Wednesday with winds picking up in the afternoon and gusting to around 20-25 mph around the mountains and 15-20 mph in the lower desert valleys. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ001-002. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ001-002. UT...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT Tuesday for UTZ024. && $$ DISCUSSION...BGB/TGJT AVIATION...TGJT  048 FXUS66 KOTX 190551 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1051 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily Northeastern WA and North Idaho Tuesday afternoon. - Chilly overnight temperatures will bring an isolated threat of morning frost Tuesday. This could impact sensitive plants or crops. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue Tuesday. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight - Wednesday: The combination of afternoon heating and residual moisture will keep a threat for showers and thunderstorms this evening across Northeastern WA and North. Storm motion to the south and southeast does bring a small threat for a few cells to drift off the higher terrain and into the Upper Columbia Basin and Spokane-Cd'A area. The depth of the convection is slowly shrinking at temperatures warm 2-3 Celsius at 500 mb so updrafts are largely growing to -25C versus -35C on Sunday. Ideally, this will result in less lighting strikes across the area. The strongest cells will be capable of brief downpours of rain/small hail and wind gusts around 30 mph. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer Tuesday morning but still cooling into the 30s to 40s. The threat for frost will be more localized. If you experienced temperatures in the low 30s and frost Monday morning, may want to consider taking actions to protect sensitive plants again. Given the complex terrain of our region, many observation platforms are not dipping to freezing given the placement of the sensor above ground but frost has been reported nearby, especially where there are low spots. The current frost forecast has a 20-25% chance for frost in the valleys of NE WA and N ID (down from 40-50% Monday). One change for tonight will be the potential for midlevel clouds moving through NE WA and N ID overnight which would support the idea of warmer temperatures. On Tuesday, temperatures continue to warm aloft for most areas away from far NE WA and N ID. This will equate to less shower activity region-wide and mainly fair cumulus build ups. Upper levels will be slower to warm over far NE WA and N ID. Locations like Ione, Porthill, and Bonners Ferry will maintain a 15-25% chance for showers and t-storms. High pressure begins to amplify along the coast Wednesday. Midlevel flow buckles from northwest to north over the INW. A cooler shortwave will drop down the eastern flank of the ridge and along the Northern Rockies. This will bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms back to the ID/MT border Wednesday afternoon. If the wave is a bit deeper and further west, the threat for convection may need to be expanded as far west as the ID/WA border. Breezy northerly winds will develop Wednesday night with this system with gusts of 20-30 mph for locations like Omak, Ephrata, and Wilbur. Thursday-Monday: There is moderate confidence for the upper-level ridge to build into the region Thursday and linger into Friday delivering a warming and drying trend. Details become a bit more uncertain over the weekend and early next week when additional shortwaves begin swinging into the region from the Gulf of AK. There are many variations with timing and strength of these systems. Any systems will need to be monitored closely for potential showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds, especially if thereis a quick exchange of air masses. Ensemble means are hinting wind gusts around 30 mph right now across the Basin and Spokane Area with a handful of members in the 40-45 mph range. Monday is the windiest day at this time. /sb && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail. Shower activity will continue in northeast WA and north ID through 9-12z Tuesday. More rounds of showers are expected in far northeast WA and north ID Tuesday afternoon with breezy outflow gusts around 25 kt. Chances for showers are lower for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE around 5-10% Tuesday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 41 68 44 71 43 72 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 41 66 44 68 43 70 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 39 64 42 66 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 43 70 46 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 36 70 40 74 38 75 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 40 65 43 67 41 70 / 20 10 10 10 0 0 Kellogg 39 65 43 67 42 70 / 20 10 0 10 30 0 Moses Lake 41 74 45 78 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 48 73 50 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 43 74 47 77 48 78 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  111 FXUS63 KPAH 190553 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1253 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Quad State this afternoon into tonight, with a 60-90% chance of rain peaking this evening. A few isolated strong to severe storms are possible during peak heating, with damaging winds being the main hazard of concern. - Daily rain chances continue over the next week, with at least a 30-50% chance or greater of rain each day. Thursday will be the driest day with rain chances confined to mainly the south. - Temperatures trend below normal after today into the 70s along with a decrease in humidity before quickly rebounding back into the 80s by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An MCS upstream this morning across Missouri will set the stage for more unsettled weather later today. Ahead of an approaching cold front, an influx of moisture will cause dewpoints to rise near 70. High temperatures will be unseasonably warm in the mid to upper 80s with the exception of the far west due to more cloud cover. An increase in the pressure gradient will support deep layer mixing in the boundary layer that will yield breezy conditions with wind gusts between 20-25 mph. As a prefrontal mid-level impulse approaches midday, the CAMs differ on the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms along residual outflow boundaries. The 0z ARW and HRRR keep convection this afternoon more scattered with storms growing more upscale tonight. Meanwhile the NSSL, FV3, and newer hourly runs of the HRRR show more robust convection occurring during the afternoon with a line propagating east. Despite the uncertainly in the timing of storm coverage, rain chances increase late this afternoon into the evening, peaking at a 60-90% chance. Although the SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather (Level 2/5) over much of the Quad State, the shear will be more meager compared to yesterday with 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear at best. However, given a robust MLCAPE axis of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates of 8.0 to 8.5 C/km, the thermodynamics will still support an isolated severe storm with damaging winds being the main hazard of concern if convection can become organized during peak heating. The main forcing mechanism will be surface convergence as the better upper level kinematics lift more north through the afternoon which may limit the potential. With that said, the other concern will be torrential downpours that will be capable of causing localized flash flooding issues in the typical low-lying locations with PWATs around 1.75 to 2.00 inches. Despite the cold front pushing south of the FA on Wednesday, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into the latter half of the week, with a 30-50% chance confined to the southern most counties on Thursday when the driest conditions are progged. High temperatures will also be a few degrees below normal in the 70s along with lower humidity as northerly flow associated with a ~1030 mb sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes region advects in drier air. The more comfortable airmass will not last for long as the front lifts back north on Friday, causing humidity levels to quickly rebound along with a warming trend into the 80s for the upcoming weekend. Isentropic lift will also yield numerous showers and thunderstorms, with a 80-90% chance of rain peaking during the morning hours on the NBM. Daily storm chances then continue into early next week, with high temperatures trending back into the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected into Tuesday morning, except a brief period of BKN005 possible at KEVV/KOWB between 08z-11z. Shra/tsra will spread across the TAF sites between 17z-21z persisting through the end of the TAF period, again accompanied by MVFR conditions, especially vsbys. Winds tonight will range from variable around 5kts to south at 5-10 kts, becoming southwest by 13z-15z and increasing to 10-15kts with gusts around 20kts. Stronger winds possible with tsra. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...RST  100 FXUS64 KEWX 190553 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1253 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance for a few showers and storms today mainly along the Rio Grande - Line of strong to severe storms with locally heavy rain possible Tuesday evening/night. - Active weather pattern from mid-week through the upcoming Memorial Holiday weekend. Heavy rain at times could lead to localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 The cap should continue to hold this afternoon, but sufficient warming could spark isolated storms along the Rio Grande in the evening which may push east if they do develop. While only the 12Z HRW ARW and FV3 CAMs depicted deep convection developing in this manner out of the HREF suite, the moist and buoyant environment does increase the background potential relative to typical expectations, so storm chances this evening are but were adjusted higher than the NBM mainly over the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau. The low-level jet that delivered several days of abnormally breezy and humid conditions will continue for another night (albeit with slightly reduced strength), imparting southerly gusts in the 20-30 mph tonight. The upper-air disturbance over the Central Plains that enabled the LLJ is actively moving farther away, so we expect that winds will start to gradually subside tomorrow. Humid air will likely persist through the week, but lows Tuesday morning should cap off a streak of mornings with near-record to record-setting mild temperatures. A weak cold front will slowly crawl south towards our local area throughout the day. This front arrives without the support of northerly winds aloft, so this won't be a front known for its northerly post-frontal winds or brisk arrival. Instead, the interaction of the front with the humid airmass stockpiled over our area should produce scattered to widespread shower and storm activity, with that action encroaching upon the Hill Country by the evening hours. Additionally, southwesterly divergent flow aloft should produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dry line atop the higher terrain over Mexico, which may move east towards the Rio Grande and join up with the front. A steady cap should be able to generally mute storm development over South-Central Texas for most of morning and afternoon Tuesday. Despite the clouds and moist air, highs in the 90s with the ample humidity should again boost heat indices above 100F for portions of the Rio Grande Plains and Coastal Plains, with values in the mid to upper 90s elsewhere. However, as the front and dry line get active and move closer, rain chances go up quickly after sunset and temperatures should begin to fall off more than they have on previous days. The primary period of storminess Tuesday is likely from Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. The SPC has highlighted a Level 2 of 5 (Slight) risk of severe weather with the greatest risk generally along and west of the I-35 corridor. While the simulated radar outputs from the hi-res models disagree in the general arrangement of storms Tuesday evening, the overall environment with weak mid-level flow along the front supports a line of thunderstorms along the front pushing south over the area. There's a somewhat emergent model consensus that this line could reach the Hill Country / Edwards Plateau near or just before sunset and then progress south through the rest of our area before winding down in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday, not too unlike our line of storms last week. The primary severe threat would likely be isolated strong to damaging wind as storms ripple along the front. There could be some isolated large hail potential mainly over the Edwards Plateau, but the rather modest effective bulk shear (generally under 30 kt) and high freezing level will generally limit that risk to only the strongest updrafts. The heavy rain potential will also need to be monitored as well as the front brushes up against the moist, accumulated Gulf air. The WPC has up to a Level 2 of 4 (Slight) risk for isolated heavy rain capable of flash flooding across a substantial portion of our warning area, and the generally weak flow aloft and thick warm cloud depth could support more efficient downpours. Storms that manage to develop ahead of the front would find themselves briefly in a slow-moving environment and add to this rain. This signal is slightly higher in the southern Hill Country Rain totals will generally depend on how quickly the rain-cooled air pushing the line of storms kicks into gear, but the overall prospects for widespread amounts above 1 inch looks likely. A few localized pockets of 3-5" of rain is also hinted at by the CAMs, and this would be commensurate with the moist environment. While the severe risk is more established for northern portions of the CWA, the geographic placement of the heaviest rains is a little more uncertain. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Tuesday's front will likely be pushed along by the rain-cooled air from Tuesday night's storms, and Wednesday morning should start out more seasonably with temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. The medium-range model guidance shows several protuberances of vorticity aloft moving over our area Wednesday. However, the atmosphere will probably take some time to recuperate from the preceding night's storms, and even with the moist airmass remaining in place it would not be a surprise to spend most of the day Wednesday rain-free. Still, the continued presence of moisture and a conducive southwesterly flow persisting aloft thanks to broad troughing over the western US means that there will be more opportunities for rain and storms throughout the week. Heavy rain potential will continue with precipitable water values repeatedly near or over the 90th percentile for this time of year. Key elements to watch will be any residual boundaries left over by previous rounds of storms, which can be foci for new storm development, and bundles of vorticity aloft moving over the area to enhance certain windows of opportunity for rain. The precise timing and placement of storms will be based on these factors, which will be sensitive to the evolution of each successive period of storms. Based on their depictions of mid-level 700mb vorticity, a few of the medium-range models, including the GFS, ECMWF, and their ensemble suite and AI counterparts suggest a favorable period for rain Thursday. The WPC has up to a Level 2 of 4 (Slight) risk for heavy rain during that window. Another conducive period may take shape this weekend. This timing should be considered with broad brushstrokes, as it's still too early to decipher which areas may see heavier rains and when. However, taken altogether, there could be a gradually increasing potential for flash and riverine flooding as each round of rain saturates grounds further. The bottom line is that an active and wet pattern looks likely for the entirety of South Central Texas through the week. Continue to check back as details get clearer over the coming days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Ceilings will be MVFR overnight at all terminals. VFR conditions will return by late morning or early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting around noon and becoming more likely during the late afternoon. We've targeted between 03Z and 06Z as the most likely time for thunderstorm, but they could come earlier or later. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 91 72 85 71 / 40 80 30 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 73 85 72 / 30 80 40 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 72 86 71 / 30 80 40 80 Burnet Muni Airport 88 69 82 69 / 40 80 30 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 95 72 89 69 / 30 50 40 100 Georgetown Muni Airport 89 71 83 70 / 40 80 30 70 Hondo Muni Airport 91 72 86 70 / 20 80 40 90 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 73 86 72 / 30 80 40 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 73 86 73 / 30 70 40 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 73 86 72 / 20 80 40 80 Stinson Muni Airport 93 74 87 72 / 20 80 40 80 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...05  169 FXUS61 KPHI 190555 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 155 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and more humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. 2. A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and more humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast will remain in place through late Tuesday before it starts to flatten on its northwest side during Wednesday. This along with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic will drive a south to southwest flow of early season (anomalous) heat across our area into Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to peak into the 90s for many areas again Tuesday and Wednesday, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. While the surface dew points will likely mix out some during peak heating due to the drier ground and boundary layer (low evapotranspiration), this stretch of early season heat, with record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. For this reason, opted to expand the Heat Advisory to the areas where the heat index criteria starts at 100F (the urban I-95 corridor criteria starts at 96F through June). While it will probably fall a little short for some areas, the potential greater impacts (lack of acclimation) is driving our decision. Where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore did not include the immediate coastal zones in the Heat Advisory. Peak heat indices will be 95 to nearing 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east during Wednesday as a strong cold front starts to arrive. Based on this, portions of the Heat Advisory for areas farther north and west of I-95 only goes through Tuesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will depend on how quickly cloud cover arrives along with showers and some thunderstorms. Either way, we will have a high launching pad for temperatures to start Wednesday and it will still be rather hot. Temperatures at night will be quite warm by mid May standards. Lows will only be in the mid 60s to low 70s, which will challenge daily warmest low temperature records for May 19th. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. As mentioned above, a cold front will approach the area Wednesday and bring an end to the stretch of above normal temperatures by Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front as it passes through the region. Recent guidance trends continue to show the front moving through during the second half of Wednesday into Wednesday night. Given this timing, there is the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. There remains uncertainty in the more specific details and some timing variations remain. Regarding the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, the cold front will be moving into an air mass that will feature plenty of instability. The better shear and forcing look to be to our north, but bulk shear values will be supportive of some storm organization along with some supportive lapse rates. All of this said, the potential is there for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. The primary concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. General rainfall accumulation from this frontal passage looks around 0.25" or less. However, given this convection and PWAT values reaching to 1.5-2.0", localized higher amounts are certainly possible with any heavier pockets of rain. As the front sinks south into Thursday morning, it then looks to linger near or just south of the area through the remainder of the day Thursday. This will lead to the potential for more rain showers, particularly for our southeastern zones. An unsettled pattern looks to continue to take shape for Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. South to southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. High confidence. Tuesday...VFR. Southwesterly winds 5-8 knots increasing to 10-15 knots, with some afternoon gusts up to 20 knots. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday...Sub-VFR with rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Rain showers may continue into Thursday. Friday through Saturday...Sub-VFR with rain showers moving through. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory continues for the New Jersey Atlantic coastal waters for Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. Southerly flow will increase tonight and especially during Tuesday. A hot air mass will be moving over the chilly water and this vertical mixing will be reduced, however given the strength of the flow there should be a period of wind gusts to around 25 knots and seas building to about 5 feet. It looks to be more marginal for the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters and therefore held off on issuing an advisory. For Delaware Bay, the conditions should continue to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Tuesday night. Outlook... Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Seas lessen by Wednesday morning but elevated winds out of the southwest remain through the day Wednesday with gusts near 20-25 kt. Rain showers move in Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. There is also the potential for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night. Thursday...Conditions expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria but showers may linger. Friday through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected as seas reach 4-6 feet. There is the chance for some rain showers. Rip Currents... On Tuesday, south to southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 8 seconds. As a result there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches. Depending on the exact direction of the winds, there is the potential for a HIGH risk for rip currents at the Jersey Shore. On Wednesday, south to southwest winds will be a bit lighter, and winds look to be more parallel to the shores. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. Will continue to note that while surface temperatures inland will be in the mid to upper 90s Tuesday and in the low to mid 90s on Wednesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Near record breaking temperatures are forecast from through Wednesday. High temperatures Tuesday and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthlyall time records for May. Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 97/May 30 & 31, 1991 Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, & May 31, 1991 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 18 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 96/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 93/1987 AC Marina (55N) 90/1987 Georgetown (GED) 91/1974 (new record) Mount Pocono (MPO) 87/1962 (new record) Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 (new record) Reading (RDG) 96/1962 (tie record) Trenton (TTN) 96/1986 Wilmington (ILG) 94/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 18 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 70/2017 AC Marina (55N) 66/2017 Georgetown (GED) 72/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/2017 Philadelphia (PHL) 72/2017 Reading (RDG) 67/1900, 1943, & 2017 Trenton (TTN) 71/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 72/2017 Record High Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 97/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1962 AC Marina (55N) 92/1998 Georgetown (GED) 96/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 73/2017 AC Marina (55N) 68/1998 Georgetown (GED) 73/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 Philadelphia (PHL) 74/1877 Reading (RDG) 68/1962 Trenton (TTN) 70/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2017 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996 AC Marina (55N) 69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ070-071-102-104- 106. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060>062-101- 103-105. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012-013-015- 017>020-027. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ007>010. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>021-026-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450>453. && $$ DISCUSSION...AKL/Gorse/Guzzo AVIATION...AKL/Gorse/Guzzo/OHara MARINE...Gorse/Guzzo/MPS  249 FXUS61 KBOX 190556 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 156 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory extended into Wednesday night for the southern outer waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Record heat possible Tuesday with marginal humidity, kicking off a multi-day stretch of anomalously hot temperatures (in the mid to upper 90s away from the South Coast). - Isolated thunderstorms possible today, mainly north and west of I- 95. Better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with strong damaging winds the main risk. - Cooler and unsettled weather is possible Memorial Day Weekend, but confidence remains low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Record heat possible Tuesday with marginal humidity, kicking off a multi-day stretch of anomalously hot temperatures (in the mid to upper 90s away from the South Coast). A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of southern New England on Tuesday and Wednesday, not necessarily because of the expectation for an exceptionally oppressive heat/humidity combo but due to a very early arrival of well above normal heat for mid May in southern New England. This anomalously warm airmass comes courtesy of a building mid level ridge today pushing 850 mb temps into the 18-20C range which wold be 2-3 SD above climatology. Given an expected well mixed boundary layer surface temperatures should be able to reach well into the 90s. Warmest locations will be the CT and Merrimack valleys where downslope flow will help push temps into the mid 90s with low to mid 90s elsewhere. The exception will be along the south coast where that SW wind trajectory off of the ocean keeps temps comfortably in the mid 70s. The ridge begins to break down on Wednesday with falling heights, but even so temps will remain elevated ahead of the cold front; increasing cloud cover ahead of the surface trough will help keep temps a few degrees cooler, but many locations inland still see low to mid 90s away from the water. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s (discounting the outlier NAM) will make it feel humid but not tropical by any means. KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated thunderstorms possible today, mainly north and west of I-95. Better chances for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with strong damaging winds the main risk. When it comes to thunderstorm threat each day, Wednesday looks to be the more favorable day for strong to severe storm coverage because while both days feature the necessary moisture and instability, the lift mechanism is much more robust on Wednesday (the cold front). Those elevated temps and dewpoints will contribute to instability values on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE each day while dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s as previously mentioned. 0- 6km bulk shear values, while fine (25-30 kts), are less favorable for organized severe weather than they are further north where the stronger mid level flow resides. So, the ingredients are there for some strong to severe storms. The lifting mechanism is much less robust on Tuesday, but guidance indicates a weak surface trough and mid level shortwave which will likely be enough to kick off some storms. Despite very strong low level lapse rates, the longevity and strength/height of these storms will be limited by poor mid level lapse rates. Wednesday the cold front will serve as a better lifting mechanism, timed coincident with peak diurnal heating so would expect more coverage of storms and any storms that do form have the chance to produce strong to damaging winds primarily given inverted- v soundings. KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler and unsettled weather is possible Memorial Day Weekend, but confidence remains low. After high pressure delivers dry and seasonable weather to end the week, attention turns to the holiday weekend. Unfortunately it's not a cut-and-dry forecast at this point (5-7 days out) as guidance remains in two distinct camps. One would result in a cool (or downright cold for late May) and wet weekend while another keeps things dry and seasonable. Up to this point deterministic guidance has indicated a rainy Sat/Sun ahead of a low coming out of the OH Valley while the AI guidance like the AIGFS and ECMWF AIFS keep it suppressed to the south by high pressure, at least through Sunday. Obviously this would have a big impact on the weekend, with respect to both rain and temperatures. For what it's worth, the latest GFS guidance has shown that suppression to the south as well, but can't put any confidence in an individual run. Ensemble guidance continues to show a decent chance of rain for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Through 12z...High confidence. VFR, but IFR to LIFR in stratus and fog for Cape Cod and island terminals through at least 11z. LLWS risk for all terminals tonight heading into early tomorrow morning. S-SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Tuesday and Tuesday Night...High confidence. VFR. Iso'd TSRA possible by the afternoon, but uncertain on if they will impact any terminals. S-SW wind 8 to 12 kt, gusts to 25 kt developing. VFR overnight, with MVFR ceilings across the Cape and Islands. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR. Scattered TSRA along and ahead of a cold front in the afternoon and evening. S-SW wind 8-10kt with gusts 20-25 kts turning NW behind the cold front between 15-00Z. Strong gusts possible in any thunderstorms. KBOS...High confidence in TAF. KBDL...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday through Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday: High confidence. Small craft advisories remain in effect 12z Tuesday through Wednesday evening. SW winds will be increasing to around 15-25 kt Tuesday and remain so through Wednesday, higher over the southern waters. Seas will also be building to around 4-6 ft, with some 7 footers possible Tuesday night over the southern waters. Mainly dry weather prevails through Tuesday night, although fog may develop both tonight and Tuesday night. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain showers likely. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs for Tue May 19... BOS 90/1949 BDL 94/1962 PVD 91/2017 ORH 92/1962 Record Highs for Wed May 20... BOS 91/1996 BDL 99/1996 PVD 95/1996 ORH 91/1903 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ002>004. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ003-004. MA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ003>007-010>019-026. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ006-007-013>019. RI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001>004. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...BW MARINE...BW CLIMATE...BW  351 FXUS62 KCHS 190558 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 158 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All Key Messages and sections were updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore will maintain its influence on the region today. Subsidence will begin to increase aloft later today as the pronounced Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) positioned near 29N/73W prior to daybreak draws closer to the Southeast U.S. coast and continues to slides west beneath the subtropical anticyclone centered well east of Cape Hatteras. This coupled with low 850 hPa theta-e will keep rain- free conditions in place even as a pure sea breeze circulation moves steadily inland through the afternoon and evening. Highs will continue to run a few degrees above normal with highs poised to peak in the lower 90s inland to the mid-upper 70s at the beaches. Similar to the past few days, the boundary layer will likely not completely decouple until well after midnight as the sea breeze moves into the Southern Midlands, CSRA and east-central Georgia. Light winds and mostly clear skies will support modest radiational cooling with lows ranging from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. Another round of shallow ground fog appear likely away from the beaches, but impacts should be minimal with models show rather high 1000 hPa condensation pressure deficits. Sfc high pressure holds tight across the region through Wednesday. allowing quiet conditions to prevail. As noted in days past, should see the upper level pattern shift as we head into the latter half of the week, when a shortwave trough deepens across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, at the sfc, will see a cold front extending from Maine to Texas dive southeastward ahead of this feature, causing rain chances to return to the forecast. Unfortunately, model guidance and certainty remain rather poor at this time, keeping overall confidence in rainfall occurrence and timing low. Latest trends would favor a stronger ridge over the Atlantic, resulting in the aforementioned front and forcing staying further west and north of our area. As such, this scenario would entail seeing less precipitation across our area than previously forecasted. In fact, current ensemble probabilities for seeing rainfall accumulations greater than one inch through Saturday have now dropped to less than 25% (with the greatest threat still inland) - whereas yesterday probabilities ranged from 20-60%. Certainly something to keep an eye on, as model runs could still shift in the coming days. Otherwise, expect the severe potential with any shower/storm to remain low, given the lack of forcing and moisture in place. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 19/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR. Another round of shallow ground fog could develop at all three terminals through daybreak. The fog should not impact operations given it is likely shallow nature, but vsbys at KJZI and KSAV (until the observer comes on duty) could yield some significant swings in vsbys as fog layers meander at near the sensors. For now, no mention of sub-VFR vsbys were included, but trends will be monitored. Gusty winds will again accompany the afternoon sea breeze. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Quiet conditions will persist with the region positioned along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. East/southeast winds will prevail with speeds less than 15 kt, although some local enhancement along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor will likely occur with the sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Wednesday through Friday: No marine concerns are expected. High pressure to the east will drive onshore east-southeasterly flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas should average 2-4 feet through the period. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  365 FXUS62 KRAH 190559 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 159 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * The backdoor front arrival on Thu has trended slower, thus highs have been nudged upward for Thu. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 120 AM Tuesday... 1) Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. 2) Rain chances will return Thu, with daily above-normal chances persisting into early next week. The highest rain coverage and amounts are still expected to be Thu afternoon through Thu night. && .DISCUSSION... As of 120 AM Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and mainly dry through Wednesday. Confidence remains quite high that we'll see continued anomalously hot weather, near-record or record-breaking in some cases, as strong ridging near the surface through the mid levels persists. The latest HREF carries through with what the previous days' LREF indicated, with mid level heights over NC in the 99th percentile through tonight and just a slight reduction to 95th percentile for Wed. And 850 mb temps will sit above the 95th percentile for the date, as low level thicknesses hold around 20 m above normal with deep daily mixing. Highs will continue to be in the low-mid 90s across central NC both Tue and Wed. The deep mixing and resulting drop in afternoon dewpoints into the 50s is what will keep our max heat index values under 100F, however our daily Heat Risk will peak at level 2 of 4 (Moderate), with isolated patches of level 3 of 4 (High), suggesting heat that is unusually intense and which could lead to heat illnesses, especially for those most sensitive to heat. And given the generally light breeze with lots of sunshine each day, the WBGT index will be elevated as well. As such, in addition to frequent water breaks, spending time resting in the shade is encouraged, especially for those working or exercising outdoors. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances will return Thu, with daily above- normal chances persisting into early next week. The highest rain coverage and amounts are still expected to be Thu afternoon through Thu night. A potent shortwave trough tracking through eastern Canada and New England Wed/Thu will take a cool high pressure area across the northern Great Lakes and St Lawrence Valley, pushing a backdoor front southward through the Mid Atlantic region. Models have been trending slower with the front's arrival, bringing it into our northern areas early-mid Thu afternoon before pushing the front just S of the CWA early-mid Thu evening. This slowing will allow for warmer prefrontal temps, particularly across the S where the cooler air will be last to arrive. Expect highs from the low-mid 80s near the VA border and Triad to around 90 in the Triangle and low 90s (and isolated mid 90s) in the far S. Given the slower frontal push, expect minimal pops prior to midday Thu, with just slight shower chances Wed evening in the far N. As the mid level ridge breaks down allowing for an increasing mid level southwest flow (although initially still fairly weak), minor perturbations aloft will track from Baja California across the S Plains into the S Appalachians. An increasing low level tap of moisture from both the Gulf and Atlantic will push PW levels above normal, and with increasing isentropic upglide along the southward- moving front, pops are likely to ramp up quickly Thu afternoon, continuing well into the night. Strengthening SW 850 mb flow will force increasing ascent along the front, which could lead to isolated heavy rain totals and propagating cells on the SW side of convection. The overall CAPE and deep layer bulk shear will be on the low end Thu, thus no severe weather is expected, and thunder may be limited to just isolated. By Fri, the surface high to our N will be shifting Eoff the Northeast coast but still extending down through central and W NC as a damming wedge. While the transitory nature of the parent high should curb the duration of this event, there should still be enough clouds and overrunning flow atop the low level CAA for high surface- based stability with limited insolation, favoring cooler temps, esp over the Piedmont where highs will be held in the low 70s, while SE areas of the CWA along and SE of the wedge front see highs in the mid 80s. As is always the case with even weak or brief wedge events, the greatest temp uncertainty will be either side of the wedge boundary, thus confidence in Fri highs remains low. The wedge should be vulnerable to dissolution by Sat, allow temps to rebound back above normal, although not to early-week heat levels. With a persistent long and wavy SW flow from N Mexico into the Carolinas combined with high low-level moisture flux from the Gulf and Atlantic through the weekend and into early next week, our rain chances are expected to remain above normal, focused on each afternoon and evening Fri through Mon. This would be a welcome respite from our ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 155 AM Tuesday... VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through the 24 hr TAF period ending at 06z Wednesday. Some patchy fog and low stratus is beginning to develop in far SE NC due to good radiational cooling conditions and adequate low-level moisture. HREF probabilities of fog greater than 50% are confined to just south of KFAY, and the RAP/HRRR keep it to the south of there as well, but still can't totally rule out a reduced visibility in the far SE early this morning. Winds will be from the S/SW through the period, mostly less than 7 kts tonight and 7-10 kts during the day today. Outlook: There is a chance of low stratus both Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Then scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Thursday surrounding a backdoor cold frontal passage and breezy NE winds. Brief classical CAD will likely bring sub-VFR cigs to all terminals behind the fropa that will likely persist into Friday, especially in the typical CAD regime at INT/GSO and potentially RDU. There is a chance of showers/storms through the weekend with daily MVFR to nightly IFR conditions possible. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 96/1911 KRDU: 95/1962 KFAY: 96/2022 May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 May 21: KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KGSO: 68/2018 KRDU: 70/2022 May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 May 23: KFAY: 72/2011 May 24: KGSO: 69/2019 KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000 May 25: KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hartfield AVIATION...Danco/Badgett/AS CLIMATE...RAH  348 FXUS63 KDVN 190558 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1258 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...06z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are expected to hold off until mid to late evening tonight as the main severe weather threat remains tied to the cold front position well to our west this afternoon. - A mature to dissipating squall line of storms is expected to move towards our western counties later this evening, and begin to dissipate/break up as it moves eastward. - Cooler weather is expected for the mid to late week, with increasing rain chances Thursday night through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Two areas of scattered storms and rain moved through the area early this morning, resulting in some beneficial rainfall, and extensive cloud cover over the area through this morning. The cloud cover has resulted in far less instability available for any storms over eastern Iowa this afternoon, while Illinois and Missouri continues to see over-running rains just south of our counties from the expansion of the early morning storm cluster that impacted our CWA today. This vast area of stable air should keep any prefrontal storms from forming in our CWA this afternoon and early evening. Farther west, a different story exists. Strong heat and convergence is over eastern KS, feeding into a triple point just north of Salina KS. This rather obvious spot with strongly backed winds, ample CAPE, and focusing mechanism supports supercell growth in eastern KS, southeast NE, northwest MO, and far southwest Iowa this afternoon through mid evening, as is outlined by SPC for a Moderate and Enhanced Risk. That Enh risk previously included eastern Iowa, but has been shifted west due to the late arrival time, and expectation of instability waning overnight. Various CAMs agree nearly all agree on supercells spreading east and northeast into southwest Iowa this evening, merging into a line, with bowing segments and damaging winds as is moves towards south southwest Iowa and MO. From this point going forward, convection appears to show the highest potential to split north and south, with the northern side moving towards Wisconsin and MN following the best shear and forcing, while the most significant severe weather will drop southeast from its initiation point in eastern KS to central and possibly northern MO with a significant wind threat, as well as heavy rain in MO. For our CWA, that could leave us out of the threat for severe weather, however given some threat for an organized line of storms on the northern flank of the Missouri activity, we could see a gusty squall line move from west to east over the area, as shear values will be sufficient for this to happen. In fact, if it does happen, 0-1km shear vectors could allow for some QLCS tornado potential as damaging meso vorts along the line. (if we get a coherent line overnight). Activity will be decaying regarding QPF overnight, with most rainfall expected in our southern counties once again. By early Tuesday morning, any rain will be quickly exiting our southeast CWA with a cloudy cool morning in place. Northwest winds will bring in plenty CAA Tuesday and Tuesday evening, as temperatures fall from highs in the low 60s west to mid 70s east to the 40s by mid evening Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Cool high pressure looks to move in for Tuesday night through Wednesday night, resulting in lows in the 40s, but highs in the mid to upper 60s. This rather nice weather will give way to potential rain and clouds for Thursday afternoon through Friday as there is a growing signal for an upper low/deep trofpassing through the Midwest in that time frame. Pops are now increased to likely (55- 70%) for Thursday night and Friday, with some thunder possible. The clouds and showers will hold temperatures down into the 60s both days, before a warm up into the 70s and 80s spreads in for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Another night of strong LLVL winds and a linear MCS moving through the TAF sites. After the main line pushes through, behind it more stratiform rain with some embedded thunder and patches of wake low wind fields gusting up to 40-50 KTs out of the backside of the departing precip shield. The main upstream cold front will slip through Tuesday morning from west-to-east with a sfc wind veer to the west and eventually northwest as Tuesday morning progresses. the northwest winds may gust 25-30 KTs. Along and post-frontal there is a substantial field of MVFR stratocu that will move acrs most of the area through evening, before some erosion and clearing occurs Tuesday evening. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...12  354 FXUS64 KJAN 190558 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1258 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe storms are possible in the northwest Tuesday evening. - Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week into the weekend. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 854 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Earlier isolated showers and thunderstorm activity has ended for the evening. Moisture could allow for some patchy fog to develop in southeast Mississippi in the early morning, but dense fog is not expected. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Rest of the week into weekend (Tuesday through Sunday)... Longwave trough will be ejecting into Canada and Hudson Bay region. Persistent summertime pattern of seasonable warmth (4F to 8F above and highs in 88F to 92F) and moisture (forecasts of 1.5 to 1.9 inches) will be the norm. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity will be a concern ahead of a few perturbations in the southwesterly flow (20 to 55 percent) and increased heat and humidity. With some steep lapse rates (vertical totals near 27C to 29C), some strong to isolated severe storms remain possible Tuesday and into mid week. There is anticipated of afternoon development in the Plains should sink southeast into the Ozarks in the evening and make it into the area by late afternoon into early evening. Storm mode is a question but even a southeast traversing cold pool could initiate some strong to isolated severe thunderstorm activity into Tuesday evening. While there could be some diurnal activity between 3-5PM, the concern for severe storms will be mainly after 6PM and last until just after midnight. The ongoing HWO graphic remains valid, but the timing has been slowed down into the evening to just after midnight (6PM Tuesday through 2AM Wednesday). Deep flow/bulk shear will be light (15-25kts) and variable and storm organization will need to be in tandem to the southwesterly low level flow. This could hinder any southeastward propagating MCS, which is alluded to in some convective allowing model (CAMs) output. With generally southerly to southwesterly flow in the low levels, cold pools may eventually get out of balanced and more cold pool dominant, decreasing the severe potential closer to Interstate 55 and central portions of the area closer to or just after midnight. Damaging wind gusts and hail remain the main concerns. As a stronger wave swings into the Great Lakes and surface low ejects into eastern Canada (995mb to 1000mb), front will shift south southeast towards the Gulf states. Several perturbations will enhance upper diffluence, increasing ascent and moisture advection. This will drive higher coverage of rain and storms (45 to 90 percent Wednesday and Thursday). High temperatures will be seasonable (mid to upper 80s Wednesday to low to mid 80s rest of the week) with lows less seasonable, from 8F to 12F above (upper 60s to low 70s). With less seasonable temperatures, humidity and lapse rates, some stronger storms are likely and marginally severe storms remain possible. Mid to deep layer bulk shear will remain sufficient (around 30kts), with low level shear around 15-25kts. This will keep potential marginally severe concerns through the remainder of the work week (Wednesday through Friday). Rain totals for the week will be around a couple of inches (1 to 3 inches), which will help lessen some long term drought concerns. Large scale synoptic pattern (i.e. southwesterly return flow, warm advection, high PWs near 2 inches) will persist, keeping rain chances high late week into the weekend (70 to 90 percent Friday through Sunday). Some low end severe potential cannot be ruled out, but lower severe probs and less heat and shear juxtaposed will keep mention of anything in HWO on a day-to-day basis, each day dependent on previous day's storm evolution. Rain totals will add up (additional one to three inches, with storm total rain through the weekend of 4 to 6 inches), continuing improvements to long term drought concerns. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Latest satellite imagery showed an area of stratus over the southeast that wl result in MVFR/IFR cigs across the south and cntrl TAF sites as it expands through 12Z. These lower flight conditions wl improve to VFR by 16Z. After 16Z VFR conditions wl prevail areawide until SHRA/TSRA move into the nw and spread over the cntrl TAF sites toward the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 86 69 85 / 60 60 60 70 Meridian 70 88 68 86 / 20 30 40 50 Vicksburg 70 85 69 84 / 70 80 70 70 Hattiesburg 69 88 69 87 / 10 50 20 50 Natchez 71 86 70 85 / 60 80 70 70 Greenville 71 83 68 82 / 80 90 70 80 Greenwood 71 85 68 84 / 70 90 70 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/DC/22  325 FXUS64 KLZK 190558 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1258 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 -Line of showers/thunderstorms to move southeast through the state today into this evening -Threat for seeing severe weather with this line of thunderstorms will be limited by instability...though some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds will be primary threat -Locally heavy rainfall may lead to an isolated flash flood threat today -Unsettled pattern will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms forecast into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 All quiet across AR so far early this Tue morning...with some breezy SRLY winds noted. Temps remain warm in the 70s for most areas...with dewpts also in the 60s and 70s. A line of TSRA is ongoing across NRN OK into SERN KS and WRN MO...slowly moving SE over time. This line of convention will be the primary wx story through this Tue afternoon/evening. Expect this line of convection to drop SE into the state sometime near sunrise...eventually dropping SE through the state by late this afternoon/early evening. The overall threat for SVR convection with this line as it moves SE will be limited by instability...which forecast instability is generally lacking. SHR is also limited during the daylight hrs...with the highest 0-3 km SRH this morning just ahead of the line over NWRN sections. While this doesn't mean organized SVR Wx won't happen...just means the potential will be limited...and likely isolated in nature. If SVR convection were to develop...damaging winds look to be the primary threat...with some marginally SVR hail possible also. The overall tornado threat looks to remain low...and may be limited to far NWRN sections during the morning hrs when the SRH is best. However...this is also when CIN will also be elevated...which should help keep that tornado threat low. Some locally heavy rainfall may be seen as this line of convection drops slowly SE over time. While most of this rainfall will be welcome given the ongoing drought conditions...there could be a few isolated spots see enough rainfall that could create an isolated flash flood threat. Beyond this evening...chances for precip do decrease overnight into Wed morning. However...an unsettled pattern will continue as SW flow aloft will remain SW over the region into early next week. Upper waves will pass over the state...which will create some forcing for convection generally each day through the week and through the weekend. While the threat for organized SVR Wx looks low at this time...late May climatology suggest some SVR threat may be possible each day. When...where...and what SVR threat may exist will depend on day to day specifics regarding the stability and SHR. As a result...the threat should remain uncertain for now. The threat for seeing heavy rainfall for the next 4-7 days may increase given multiple rounds of rainfall possible...but ongoing drought conditions and exact placement of heaviest rainfall through the next week keep the threat for flash flooding uncertain at this time as well. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR cigs expected to become widespread across the state through 12z. A line of storms will approach from the NW and move slowly SE across area terminals throughout the day. Northern AR terminals will see precip first with KLLQ likely seeing TS activity after 18z. As storms move across the terminals expect lowering cigs/vsby for at least a couple of hours. Some locally strong/erratic wind gusts will be seen as well. In the wake of the precip, northern AR terminals will likely see the longest period of MVFR/IFR cigs, likely lasting through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 85 66 75 62 / 80 50 60 40 Camden AR 89 67 82 65 / 80 60 70 60 Harrison AR 79 60 70 59 / 90 70 50 30 Hot Springs AR 84 67 80 64 / 90 40 60 50 Little Rock AR 87 67 79 63 / 80 50 70 50 Monticello AR 90 69 82 67 / 70 80 80 60 Mount Ida AR 81 68 79 66 / 90 40 70 50 Mountain Home AR 80 61 71 58 / 90 60 50 30 Newport AR 88 66 77 62 / 70 60 70 40 Pine Bluff AR 89 68 80 65 / 80 50 70 50 Russellville AR 82 66 78 63 / 90 50 60 40 Searcy AR 87 65 78 61 / 70 50 70 40 Stuttgart AR 89 69 80 66 / 80 50 70 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...62 AVIATION...67  313 FXUS66 KLOX 190557 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1057 PM PDT Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS...18/539 PM. Warmer temperatures are expected this week with some locally breezy Santa Ana winds at times through Tuesday morning. The warmest day will be Wednesday with slow cooling the rest of the week along with a return of night and morning low clouds and fog. && .SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...18/800 PM. ***UPDATE*** The story of today is the development and rapid spread of the Sandy Fire, which began this morning in Simi Valley. Under the influence of the weak to moderate Santa Ana Wind event on the heels of a prolonged warm and dry period, the fire quickly burned to the southwest. At the onset of this afternoon's rapid wind shift to onshore southwest to west winds, the fire quickly switched direction and further intensified. There have been a myriad of Evacuation Orders and Warnings, so please follow the advice of your local emergency officials. Additionally, two other fire starts occurred, one in the Antelope Valley, and one in the Angeles National Forest. These fires were contained relatively quickly. Onshore winds will weaken through tonight and winds will become relatively mild. Then another round of (slightly weaker) Santa Ana winds is forecast to begin Tuesday morning across wind prone mountains and valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. For the Sandy Fire specifically, winds are forecast to rapidly increase from the northeast in the morning hours between 8-6am, peaking from 8am-12pm. Another pronounced shift to onshore is expected tomorrow afternoon, this time an hour or two early that today. Another day of widespread elevated to locally brief critical fire weather conditions will be common across aforementioned areas. ***From Previous Discussion*** Another offshore push (although slightly weaker) is expected to develop tonight through Tuesday afternoon with wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range across the mountains, and 15-30 mph across the valleys and potentially the eastern edge of the Oxnard Plain. This mornings onshore push surfaced across the valleys and even some coastal areas. The Sandy Fire broke out this morning in Simi Valley and quickly burned through grassy hills due to gusty northeast Santa Ana winds. Even with slightly weaker winds, there again is an elevated threat for fire weather conditions tomorrow thanks in part to a prolonged warm and dry period. Winds will shift onshore Tuesday afternoon. Onshore flow will become more prominent Wednesday, increasing Thursday. Not expecting any marine layer coverage again until possibly late Tuesday through Wednesday, but more likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning as onshore flow becomes more pronounced. There is a very small chance that southern LA County, specifically the Long Beach area, sees low clouds and fog late tonight into Tuesday morning. Expecting all coastal areas and even some lower valleys to become entrenched in marine layer cloud coverage by Thursday night into Friday morning. High temperatures will increase 3-7 degrees tomorrow, and another degree or two in most areas Wednesday. By Wednesday, highs in the mid to high 80s will be common across coastal and interior valleys, with low 70s to low 80s common across coastal areas. A cooling trend begins Thursday on the coastal side of the mountains, while the interior will continue to warm a few degrees. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...18/1234 PM. A fairly quiet pattern will continue through the remainder of the forecast period, with weak winds aloft. Aside from a slight decrease in temperatures Friday and possibly Saturday, there will be little change in sensible weather day-to-day. Widespread temperatures in the 70s to low 80s will be common across coastal valleys and basins, slightly cooler at the immediate coasts with mid 60s to low 70s likely. Inland valleys will see highs reach the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s possible, especially Friday. A more robust marine layer is likely to develop each night through morning, with some coastal areas struggling to clear each day. Marine layer clouds will try to move into some of the coastal valleys by this weekend, as onshore flow increases into the weekend. Onshore flow will then stay relatively steady through Monday. Moderate southwest winds across the Antelope Valley and foothills by this weekend, which would lead to elevated fire weather concerns each afternoon in the far interior. && .AVIATION...19/0557Z. At 0532Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 ft deep, with an inversion up to 3400 ft and a maximum temperature of 17 C. Very good confidence in most TAFs. There is a 25 percent chc of MVFR cigs at KLAX 08Z-12Z. KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chc of BKN020 cigs 08Z-13Z. The east wind component is expected to be AOB 4 kt. KBUR...Good confidence in TAF. Wind speeds may be off by up to 5 kts and 30 degrees during peak winds. && .MARINE...18/754 PM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will linger into tonight, dropping below SCA levels by early Tuesday morning. Then Tuesday through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels, except for localized pockets of near SCA NW winds during the afternoons and evenings. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. There is a 50 percent chance of SCA winds on Wednesay afternoon/evening. Otherwise through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. This evening into tonight, localized near SCA winds may occur. Then local SCA winds may occur again Tuesday and Wednesay evening off the coast of Point Dume, across the San Pedro Channel, and in the Santa Barbara Channel. Otherwise through Friday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Lewis AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Black/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...LP/MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox