646 FXUS61 KCTP 190602 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 202 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Day 2 SPC Outlook upgraded to a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for damaging winds in northwest PA. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) More heat & humidity will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong to severe, especially across northern PA. 2) A strong cold front to bring showers and thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather on Wednesday followed by colder temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: More heat & humidity will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong to severe, especially across northern PA. By Tuesday, we'll still be under the influence of the anomalously strong ridge of high pressure, with broad southwesterly flow continuing to pump warmer temperatures and humid conditions into Pennsylvania. Highs on Tuesday should be fairly comparable to today, though afternoon showers/storms in the west could limit how warm it gets there. At the surface, a deepening surface low will lift across the Great Lakes with gradually sinking heights aloft impinging northwest PA. Underneath this sprawling ridge, Pennsylvania will be in a moist and unstable airmass with MUCAPE values expected to reach 1000-1500J/kg. With marginal but sufficient shear, this amount of instability could support a few stronger storms will strong to damaging wind gusts. The SPC upgraded NW PA to a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) of severe weather Tuesday afternoon. The Marginal Risk extends down to about halfway between I-80 and I-76. Low level hodographs do exhibit some spin and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in northwest PA closer to the parent surface low pressure system. CAMs disagree on the extent to which convection initiation will occur Tuesday afternoon, but the heat and humidity will provide as much fuel for storm development as we've seen yet this year. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be all that impressive with this system, largely owing to unimpressive/relatively dry moisture profiles with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. The good news is that these lower dewpoints will keep our heat index values below 100F and mitigate the need for Heat Advisories across the area. Rainfall amounts will be highest west of I-99 and locations farther east may not see much rain at all before Wednesday. -------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front to bring showers and thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather on Wednesday followed by colder temperatures. A cold front (accompanied by more widespread and frequent showers/t-storms) brings relief to the relatively short bout of heat and moderate humidity Wednesday into Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday in northwest PA (behind the front) will be nearly 20 degrees cooler than Monday/Tuesday. The Lower Susquehanna Valley will squeak out another warm day with highs in the upper to 80s to near 90F. Ahead of and along the front, there will be a risk for severe weather again on Wednesday. The magnitude & location of the severe threat will be highly dependent on cold front passage timing and amount of cloud cover in advance of the frontal boundary. A Marginal Risk area covers locations south and east of the I-80/I-99 corridor and highlights locations along and downstream of the cold front between 12PM and 8PM on Wednesday. A few of the hi-res models depict a slower cold front passage. Such a solution would allow for more destabilization ahead of the front and a higher threat for damaging straight line winds. If the front ends up being faster than progged, clouds/rain in the morning could limit instability and lead to an unimpressive gusty shower event. Regardless, this system will feature beneficial rainfall with rainfall amounts generally 0.10-0.25" and locally higher totals possible in thunderstorms. In the wake of the cold front, high pressure will build in for a short time. Temperatures are forecast to cool down back to historical/climo averages for late May for the end of next week. Early indications show the aforementioned cold front stalling out south of the Mason-Dixon line late in the week and lifting back north across PA as a warm front into Memorial Day weekend. The current outlook favors a cooler/wetter stretch through the holiday weekend thanks to that warm front, but there is still a lot of time for the forecast to trend in a more favorable and optimistic direction for the holiday weekend that marks the unofficial start of summer. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Prevailing VFR is favored through the 06Z TAF period, with the main exception being visibility restrictions in any heavier showers/thunderstorms that develop. A decaying shortwave moving across the Ohio Valley may initiate additional spotty showers/thunderstorms over Central PA overnight; nonetheless,a lull in convection is expected as forcing lessens through the morning. Otherwise, marginal LLWS is expected to continue through sunrise as surface winds have diminished in the evening while winds approach 40 kts within the lowest 2000 ft. Chances for spotty showers/thunderstorms will pick up again Tuesday afternoon and evening, primarily between 16Z-00Z, as weak shortwaves move around the periphery of a Western Atlantic ridge. Like yesterday, gusty winds may accompany these spotty showers/storms given the moderately unstable airmass (HREF mean SBCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates (>8 C/km) in place. Most convection will diminish after 00Z Wednesday with the loss of daytime heating, though some models are hinting at an MCS from the Ohio Valley holding together until reaching KBFD around 03Z-06Z Wednesday, potentially bringing gusty winds and visibility restrictions. MCS timing/impacts will be sensitive to how it evolves across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon & evening, with TAF mentions not included at this time given high model variability. Outlook... Wed...Restrictions probable through Wednesday night with widespread showers/storms along CFROPA. Thu...Lingering showers across S PA, restrictions possible. Fri...Restrictions likely with rain moving in from south to north, lasting into Fri night. Sat...Restrictions likely with rain. && .CLIMATE... The following climate sites across central Pennsylvania set new daily high temperature records for May 18th: * A record high temperature of 92 degrees was set in Altoona, breaking the previous record of 91 degrees initially set back in 1962. This record was tied two times previously, back in 1996 and 2017. * A record high temperature of 86 degrees was set in Bradford, breaking the previous record of 85 degrees set back in 1962. ** Note: The high temperature for State College will be reported around 7AM on 5/19. This is due to the State College CO-OP observations running 7AM-7AM. Thus, today's (5/18) high temperature will be reported in tomorrow's (5/19) observation. This record, for reference, is 92 degrees set in 1962. --------------------------------------------- Abnormally warm temperatures will continue on May 19th, thus multiple sites could challenge daily record high temperatures. Daily Maximum High Temperatures for May 19th: * Harrisburg: 95F set in 1962 * Williamsport: 96F in in 1996 * Altoona: 92F set in 1996 * Bradford: 85F set in 1962 * State College: 92F set in 1934, tied in1996. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff AVIATION...Teare CLIMATE...Beaty  690 FXUS63 KLOT 190603 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 103 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A period of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected after midnight tonight through early Tuesday morning, some of which could be locally strong, mainly west of I-55. - Additional thunderstorms may redevelop Tuesday afternoon, mainly east of I-55, some of which could be strong to severe. - Summer-like warmth and breezy winds will prevail through Tuesday, then cooler temperatures and dry conditions will return for the middle of the week. - Milder weather returns heading into the weekend with intermittent shower/thunderstorm potential. && .UPDATE... Issued at 846 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A robust line of convection from Wichita, Kansas to Des Moines, Iowa, which created quite the severe event in the Central Plaines this evening, is slowly moving east. A strong instability gradient from northwest Missouri toward St. Louis should focus most of the strongest parts of the line's movement through the overnight south of the forecast area toward central Illinois. However, a plume of better lapse rates into central Iowa will slowly meander east ahead of the line of storms. Outflow from the storms should provide sufficient forcing, but being in a diurnally unfavorable time of day, the lapse rates should start to weaken by the time it approaches the Rockford Metro after midnight, but confidence lowers in coverage toward the city of Chicago as it starts to fall apart away from the better forcing. Most of the forecast area will be dry tomorrow morning, but lingering showers may crop up. The cold front will finally make it to the forecast area and turn winds from the southwest to the west and eventually northwest behind the front. Additional showers and storms are possible along the front, with the best time being in the afternoon. But by that time, the front could already be around and east of Interstate 55. Storms along the front in the afternoon could be strong to even severe with damaging wind and hail the primary severe threats. Forecast updates this evening were focused on the near-term timing of shower and thunder as well as for tomorrow afternoon. DK && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Through Tonight... Convection and associated MCV responsible for this morning's severe weather has moved into Lower Michigan. Air mass in the wake of this wave is substantially more stable and combined with modest height rises in its wake should prevent any renewed convective development this afternoon or evening. Severe convection currently developing over the central Plains is likely to congeal into a large QLCS that will move toward the mid-Mississippi Valley tonight. Most intense convection is likely to focus farther southwest across Missouri, likely intercepting the low level jet and orphaning the convection farther north across Iowa. This should result in convection over Iowa diminishing as it moves eastward into northern IL with some guidance suggesting very little shower activity would actually make it into our CWA. Have reflected this trend in pop grids, but opted to maintain at least chance pops given the inherent uncertainties in forecasting convective evolution. Pressure field is recovering in the wake of the morning convection which has allowed winds to pick and become rather gusty from the southwest. Gustiness of the winds will generally tend to abate by sunset, except perhaps remaining somewhat gusty tonight in the urban heat island of Chicago. -Izzi Tuesday... Convectively induced vorticity maximum will slide through northeast Illinois into early Tuesday, well outpacing the cold front, and therefore we may have some showers hanging on into the area, but confidence is medium-high that thunderstorm coverage will be on the lower side. Any lingering MCS cold pool footprint and residual cloudiness will likely delay destabilization into midday Tuesday, though additional storm development appears somewhat probable across the southeast half of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening as the cold front finally pushes through the forecast area. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will maintain mid to possibly upper 60s dewpoints and support MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/Kg. Stronger mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the Model guidance would support some additional vorticity maximum riding along the front, and flow to the southeast of the mid level trough across the northern Great Lakes will likely support enough storm development and some organization for a hail/wind threat during this time. This would be favored along and southeast of I-55, with short term ensemble guidance suggesting the window for much of NE IL and NW IN being fairly limited in the mid to late afternoon. For the Chicago metro area the picture is also a bit muddled for precipitation chances. High res guidance is mostly dry for the area, whereas global guidance and NAM/RAP does bring some shower activity across Chicagoland along the front in the early afternoon. KMD Wednesday onward... Following the cold front, surface high pressure is progged to build east into the western Great Lakes region Wednesday and Thursday. Dry, but breezy and cooler weather is expected both days, with temps mainly in the 60s, but only in the 50s near Lake Michigan with northeast-east flow off the lake. Nighttime lows in the 40s are expected. The high then drifts off to the east Thursday night, with the upper level pattern favoring a series of mid-level disturbances tracking through the area Friday into the weekend. This will support milder temperatures, but also some occasional shower/thunderstorm chances into the holiday weekend. Ratzer && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the terminals late tonight into early Tuesday morning. - Breezy southwest winds to develop Tuesday morning behind the rain and persist through the afternoon. - Period of MVFR ceilings is expected Tuesday afternoon behind a cold front, but skies should scatter back to VFR around sunset. A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is progressing eastward across the Mississippi River and will be encroaching upon the terminals over the next 1-3 hours (earliest at RFD, latest Chicago area sites). While the line is expected to be gradually weakening as it moves through, recent AMDAR soundings out of MDW do show some developing mid-level instability which may allow for a couple of lightning strikes to occur. Despite confidence in thunder actually reaching the Chicago terminals being somewhat low (~20% chance) have opted to introduce a PROB30 for TSRA at DPA, ORD, and MDW as a precaution give the aforementioned instability and lack of broad weakening in the line so far. That said, still think that the most likely scenario at the Chicago sites (especially GYY) is for some isolated to widely scattered showers to occur. The line of showers/storms should diminish by daybreak and result in a mostly dry morning. Winds will be increasing with southwesterly gusts peaking around 25-30 kts through early Tuesday afternoon, but locally higher gusts could materialize if deeper mixing is achieved. As the main cold front approaches Tuesday afternoon it will bring with it a period of MVFR ceilings and perhaps an isolated shower or two though the greatest shower/storm coverage should establish more into northern and central IN. With the increasing cloud cover, gusts should ease a bit into the lower 20 kt range through the rest of the afternoon. Directions during this time will also transition from southwest to west-northwest before turning northwesterly behind the cold front early Tuesday evening. While a few upper teen to lower 20 kt gusts cannot be ruled out Tuesday night, it seems they frequency of gusts should be more sporadic so have opted to remove gusts from the TAFs from this point onward. In the wake of the cold front, ceilings should rise back to VFR Tuesday evening and remain as such for the rest of the forecast period. Lastly winds will finally settle into a northeast direction early Wednesday morning. Yack && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the IL and IN nearshore waters. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago  684 FXUS63 KTOP 190603 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 103 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms becoming numerous early to mid afternoon today and spreading east to southeast this evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all quite possible. - Flash flooding remains a concern through tonight especially where heavy rain fall Sunday night. - Gusty south winds on track for the next several hours in southwestern areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Warm, humid airmass was surging north into central Kansas ahead of a cold front toward a nearly-stationary front just northeast of northeast Kansas with a modest upper wave just upstream. Instability of 3000 J/kg already commonplace in central Kansas at 17Z with 40-50 knots of deep-layer shear. Vectors for this layer remain close to parallel to the front so there is some uncertainty in how long storms can remain discrete, but some backing of low-level flow and otherwise good setup brings all severe hazards in play. Main area of concern over the next few hours is north-central Kansas with storms spreading east and southeast and becoming more widespread with time. Threats should turn more to wind versus strong tornado in eastern areas as mode shifts to more linear. Overall a more progressive system should keep storm residence somewhat limited, but areas that saw heavy rain Sunday night will not take much more rain to experience flash flooding and intense updrafts with PW values around 1.5 inches will bring quick rainfall. Storms push southeast before dawn with flash flooding threat falling off, though rivers and creeks may be high for a few more days. Surface winds Next few days continue to look benign with modified Canadian high pressure in place with cooler temperatures. Moisture return in the mid-levels supports at least moderate precipitation chances Thursday into Thursday night but instability remains modest. A more unstable airmass should return around the holiday weekend though forcing for ascent is not readily apparent. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A few rumbles of thunder possible to begin the period at KTOP/KFOE as the cold front continues to push through. A brief period of IFR conditions for part of the overnight period at all terminals then cigs improve to marginal VFR and last into midday before lifting to VFR by mid to late afternoon. A steady breeze should remain from the north through the day before calming into the evening. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ020-KSZ026- KSZ034-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Drake  603 FXUS65 KPIH 190602 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1202 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread frost/freeze conditions persist through Wednesday - Temperatures continue to warm toward ABOVE AVERAGE throughout the week - Best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be later Wednesday and Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 A few early morning showers or sprinkles remain across the Magic Valley and Albion Mountains. Those should be gone by sunrise. Another round of isolated showers/sprinkles develops this afternoon and evening across most of the central mountains and along the Montana border. It also appears a few showers are possible across higher elevations south of the Snake Plain. The chance of thunderstorms is almost non-existent, but we also cannot completely rule it out across the central mountains. This should shift east diminish before midnight. We will see another break until Wednesday afternoon, when the next low begins to drop closer to eastern Idaho and we see an initial round of showers and storms develop. This storm slowly swings through on Thursday. Precipitation amounts don't appear impressive, although there are some trends that we could see some pockets of heavier precipitation involving any thunderstorms or bands developing. Snow is possible across the higher peaks and ridgelines on Thursday. Temperatures remain a bit BELOW AVERAGE today before warming to NEAR AVERAGE tomorrow and Thursday. Overnight lows will remain cold especially with not much cloud cover and lighter winds. Our FREEZE WARNING and FROST ADVISORY remain in place for this morning, and we will need another set of headlines for Wednesday morning. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep overnight lows more mild Thursday morning. Another thing of note for Thursday, we may need a LAKE WIND ADVISORY as northerly winds kick in and may be enough for choppy conditions on American Falls Reservoir. The rest of the week and weekend look fairly dry, although we do see a couple of very weak lows sweeping across the state which could kick off a few showers or storms here and there. Temperatures jump quite a bit, with 70s and 80s returning Saturday-Monday. It does look a bit more breezy during that stretch as well. We should see another low drop south across the state by Tuesday, with cooler temperatures and an uptick in showers and storms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 957 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Winds look light through tomorrow. Some mid cloud around SUN, BYI and PIH should dissipate overnight. SUN will probably switch to upvalley around midday, think a crosswind is unlikely in the afternoon with winds as light as they are. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for IDZ051-055. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Tuesday for IDZ052>054. && $$ DISCUSSION...Keyes AVIATION...13  902 FXUS65 KBOI 190607 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1207 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory for the western Magic Valley Tuesday morning. - Lighter winds and drier with a gradual warming trend through Wednesday. - Generally dry with above normal temperatures through the weekend. Potential pattern change early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 242 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026 The afternoon/evening showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish with sunset, as will the gusty winds. Lighter winds and clear skies overnight allow for possible frost in the western Magic Valley Tuesday morning. There is a spread in forecast low temperatures with a range of 33 to 38 in the Gooding/Jerome/Twin area so coverage could be patchy. Have opted with a Frost Advisory to highlight the potential. Building heights behind the exiting trough will bring a gradual warming trend with high temperatures close to normal by Wednesday. Mountains will see an afternoon cumulus field from daytime instability. Can't rule out a mtn top shower over w-central Idaho mtns (east of McCall- Lowman-Atlanta line) each afternoon, but it would be light with heavier development further north and east. An approaching trough will increase precipitation chances across these areas Wednesday night. Winds settle down Tue/Wed staying below 15 mph for most sites. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 242 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026 Come Thursday, a shortwave embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft will begin to dig into southeastern Idaho. While the better forcing associated with this shortwave will be east of our area, height falls aloft will support isolated showers developing over higher terrain in the West Central and Boise Mountain zones. Following this trough, dry northwest flow will return with higher pressure building in aloft over the Pacific; as a result, a warming trend will set in through the weekend, with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Come Sunday, flow aloft will become more zonal as a Gulf of Alaska low deepens. The exact track of this low is a bit uncertain this far out; however, the grand ensemble shows the indication of troughing moving across our area come early next week (deterministic guidance varies on strength and track). Despite the uncertainty, the signal is there for a pattern change early next week, this will lead to increasing precipitation chances and cooler temperatures (although still leaning above normal) come Monday. With the main jet stream above our area throughout the long-term period, breezy conditions will stick around each afternoon. The windiest conditions of the period will likely come early next week as the low makes it's way into our area. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1206 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR. Virga/isolated showers re-developing Tuesday afternoon over high terrain, mainly the northeast OR/central ID mtns. Surface winds: variable 5-10 kt overnight, then SW-NW 5-15 kt Tue afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: transitioning from NW to W, 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: light and variable through the morning. Then, NW 5-10 kt Tue afternoon with occasional gusts around 15 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM MDT this morning for IDZ016. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SA SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....NF  939 FXUS62 KMFL 190608 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 208 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 208 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - High risk of rip currents along the east coast of South Florida will continue through at least Wednesday evening as breezy easterly winds prevail. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly across SW Florida again today. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are the main threats. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all urban areas through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Rinse and repeat weather pattern similar to what we've seen the last few days across South Florida. A cut-off upper low will continue to meander near the Bahamas, edging slightly closer to Florida through the middle of the week. This disturbance looks to advect a few vorticity impulses into the vicinity of Florida's eastern coastline. This will provide some extra forcing for isolated to scattered showers to develop along the instability ridden Gulfstream waters during the overnight and morning hours for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The 00z MFL sounding shows quite a moist environment, with a PWAT of 1.91 inches and high relative humidity values from top to bottom. Along with CAPE values near 2000 J/kg, this has allowed for some gusty showers to develop across Miami Dade over the last few hours. Light showers should continue through the early morning hours before activity then shifts to sea-breeze induced thunderstorms over interior and southwest Florida. Predominant easterly flow should once again keep the Gulf breeze pinned closer to the coastline, so highest PoPs and strongest storms will favor coastal Monroe and Collier counties for both today and Wednesday. Thermodynamics will be similar to the last few days, with steep low level lapse rates and surface based CAPE values up to 3000 J/kg. Weak forcing, weak steering flow, and weak shear, will make for most activity to be pulse-y and slow moving, with new updrafts mainly forming along collision boundaries. Model forecast soundings and upper level water vapor imagery seem to indicate that some increased mid-level dry air will work its way into the region over the next couple of days. This may be part of the reason as to why models have trended slightly drier for Tuesday's activity. This may also serve to suppress more mature storm growth, so confidence for any strong to severe thunderstorms is once again very low and most activity should remain relatively low topped. On the flip side, "if" thunderstorms grow big enough (and that's a big "if" given the weak mid-level lapse rates), the drier mid-level air could help induce a few stronger wind gusts, which is supported by DCAPE values near 750 J/kg. What is described above would also be true for Wednesday's activity, except conditions trend slightly drier with PWATs dropping into the 1.4 to 1.5 inch range. Overall, the main threats will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Rain amounts will generally be between 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with locally heavier amounts of 3 to 5 inches under stronger storms. Generally breezy easterly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 28 mph across the region during the afternoon. High temperatures slightly above average, in the upper 80s to low 90s, will lead to widespread Moderate HeatRisk for all metro areas. Nighttime lows will remain in the mid to upper 70s near the coasts and lower 70s inland. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The pattern will remain generally unchanged for the latter part of the week and through the weekend, with upper level ridging extending across the Gulf and the aforementioned upper level low continuing to meander over the western Atlantic waters. Near the surface, an area of high pressure will remain in place over the western Atlantic waters and extending over the peninsula. This setup will help promote robust easterly flow across South Florida during this period, while also maintaining healthy moisture advection along the atmospheric column. Ensemble guidance places PWAT values during the period solidly near the climatological normals for this time of year (1.5- 1.7 inches) while model soundings show this moisture permeating the whole column (and not just the lower levels like was the case earlier this month). With prevailing easterly flow and ample moisture in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain on the forecast each day, especially along the sea breeze boundaries each afternoon. Although some isolated activity will likely develop over the East Coast metro early each afternoon, the better chances for more widespread activity (in the 50-70% range) will be spread out across southwest Florida and the interior where the sea breezes are forecast to meet each day. Temperatures each day will continue to rise into the upper 80s (along the East Coast) and up into the mid 90s (across southwest FL), although some of the shower activity could help provide some brief, localized relief and help temper conditions. Overnight lows also look to remain elevated through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered vicinity showers look to continue through the morning hours along the eastern areas, which may create brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Breezy easterly winds of 10 to 15 kts will persist through the period with gusts up to 25 kts during the afternoon hours. Scattered thunderstorms will favor interior and southwest Florida later this afternoon, mainly affecting KAPF. && .MARINE... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected to continue through the rest of today across the Atlantic waters due to persistent easterly winds of 15 to 20 kts. Winds look to weaken slightly for the latter half of the week. Isolated weak showers are possible for the Gulfstream waters through the morning each day this week. During the afternoon, thunderstorms will favor the Gulf coast and Gulf waters, where gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any storm. Atlantic seas will be 2-4 feet through the rest of the week, while the Gulf will remain 2 feet or less. && .BEACHES... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Continued High Risk of Rip Currents for all Atlantic beaches through the middle of the week due to persistent easterly flow. Guidance is beginning to show that the risk of rip currents will start to taper off towards the latter half of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 87 78 88 77 / 40 20 20 10 West Kendall 88 74 89 74 / 40 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 88 77 89 77 / 40 20 20 10 Homestead 87 77 88 76 / 40 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 86 78 86 78 / 40 30 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 77 86 77 / 30 30 30 10 Pembroke Pines 89 78 90 78 / 40 20 30 10 West Palm Beach 86 78 87 77 / 30 20 10 10 Boca Raton 86 79 86 78 / 30 20 20 20 Naples 92 75 92 74 / 70 10 70 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NMP LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...NMP  932 FXUS64 KHGX 190608 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 108 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A wet, muggy weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week across southeast Texas, bringing temperatures slightly below normal (upper 80s) for this time of the year. - Rain chances will continue through the week with 3-6 inch rainfall totals more likely (50-60% chance of 3+ inches) later this week and through the weekend. - The threat of hazardous rip currents remains through at least midweek before marine hazards transition to thunderstorm-driven waves. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through most of the workweek into the weekend, the broader-scale synoptic pattern of troughing across the Intermountain West and ridging across the southeast U.S. will retain its position over the CONUS with some amplifying evolutions/permutations to the local southwesterly flows (and subtropical jet) aloft. As the longwave trough delivers multiple ejections into the Great Plains, it will maintain a moisture-rich southwesterly flow aloft (PWATs near 2 inches, well above the 75% percentile of climatology). This, combined with the advection of embedded vorticity maxima and lift from an attendant frontal boundary, sets the stage for multiple rounds of efficient rainfall producing convection (some storms could produce 3 to 4 inches of rain per hour). Forecast uncertainty remains with the expected evolution of convective systems as they approach and proceed through southeast Texas, however, the congruency that is emerging among short-term model solutions at the moment favors MCS propagation. The first in multiple rounds of MCSs is expected later tonight into the overnight hours, while more concentrated convective rounds are expected on Thursday and later this week. The cumulative concern is for where the soils are primed the most from antecedent rains by Friday and subsequent Flood Watch issuance can't be ruled out at this time. Long-range guidance continues the wet trend into early next week with Day 1-7 QPF values of 5-7 inches becoming likely. Cassel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 MVFR cigs along with occasionally gusty SE winds expected overnight into Monday morning. Cigs improve to VFR in most areas by late morning. The primary weather concern will be the potential for a line of heavy shra/tsra late afternoon and evening that should approach the region from the north and west. A few widely scattered thunderstorms could develop ahead of the line during the afternoon hours as well. Storms could contain strong gusty winds. We have TSRA TEMPO groups w/ gusts to 25 knots. However, these gusts could be conservative given the potential for severe thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Gusty southeast flow and enhanced Gulf seas will continue into Tuesday. However, the primary weather concern will be the potential for strong thunderstorms overnight tonight and into Tuesday. Thunderstorm winds could easily exceed gale force and result in locally higher seas. It is important to note that thunderstorm related winds can be felt tens of miles away from the storm. Thunderstorms can also result in sudden changes in wind direction. As for the rest of the week, expect generally light to moderate south to southeast winds and 3-4 ft seas. There will be a continued daily risk of showers and thunderstorms, with locally higher winds and seas in the vicinity of any thunderstorm. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Anticipating multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall Tuesday through at least Saturday. These rounds are expected to mostly be in the form of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's). The exact timing of these storms can be a bit tricky as mesoscale factors play a key role (hence the name), but we anticipate the first round to come late Tuesday. With PW values exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.7-2.1"), rainfall rates will likely exceed 3-4"/hr in the heaviest downpours. While these lines of storms are typically progressive, the rainfall received early in the week is expected to prime the soils for rounds later in the week. Saturated soils leads to a quicker transition to runoff which brings an increased risk of flooding. We continue to anticipate widespread rainfall totals of 5-7" with isolated higher amounts. The highest rainfall totals are still expected to occur north of I-10. This rainfall will generate runoff and cause rises on area rivers and watersheds. Action to minor stage flooding is the most likely outcome, but cannot entirely rule out moderate to isolated major stage flooding depending on where the most rainfall accumulates. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Landry-Guyton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 89 72 83 72 / 40 70 70 60 Houston (IAH) 89 76 86 75 / 10 60 60 40 Galveston (GLS) 86 79 85 79 / 10 50 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cassel AVIATION...Self MARINE...Self  274 FXUS61 KRNK 190611 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 211 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. Overall, limited changes were needed. A cold front is still expected to arrive on Wednesday resulting in a chance of showers/storms. Rain chances continue through weekend and into early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into Memorial Day weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into Memorial Day weekend. Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through Wednesday due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic. Heights continue to increase today so expecting another round of mid 90s east of the mountains with some of the higher elevations reaching low 90s. Scattered afternoon cumulus possible, but with ridging continuing to build, this will likely suppress any afternoon shower/storm potential. Heat will continue into Wednesday, but afternoon highs could be a few degrees lower across the mountains due to clouds and developing afternoon showers/storms. East of the mountains, likely to see another day with highs in the low/mid 90s. Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this heat wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have been over 90 degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing to help reduce the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat arrives by Thursday, once the cold front moves into the area, with much cooler weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across the region. With these shear and instability values, some hail and damaging wind gusts can't be ruled out across the area. With this potential, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) remains in place to account for severe weather potential across portions of Virginia on Wednesday afternoon/evening. By Thursday, high pressure will begin to build across southern Canada as the cold front stalls across the region. Moist east/northeast flow will set in, which will keep temperatures cooler, along with a continued chance of showers. With stable east flow, thunderstorm potential appears to be low, with the highest chances remaining south of the forecast area. Cool wedge to persist into Friday, along with chance of rain. Mid- level disturbances look to continue to slide east over the region, which will keep rain chances in the forecast each day through the weekend and into the early portion of next week, likely bringing much needed and beneficial rainfall to the area. Temperatures will warm gradually into the beginning of next week as cool air wedge begins to break down. Although repeated rainfall looks to occur into early next week, widespread convectively enhanced rainfall not looking overly likely, therefore flooding potential remains very localized. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to remain at all terminals through the TAF forecast period. Winds will generally remain out of the south/southwest through the TAF period. Light winds expected through the morning, then increase to around 10 knots with periodic gusts 15-20 knots at all terminals this afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... More widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected starting Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Rain and storm chances and cloud cover linger through the end of the week with the system possibly stalling across the area. Periods of sub- VFR conditions through the weekend. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible today. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Tuesday, May 19, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 96 in 1962 69 in 2022 95 Lynchburg 93 in 1962 66 in 2022 95 Danville 95 in 1962 69 in 1962 96 Bluefield 89 in 1911 66 in 1977 86 Blacksburg 91 in 1911 61 in 1938 90 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/EB AVIATION...BMG CLIMATE...RCS  279 FXUS63 KLSX 190610 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 110 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into the evening with heavy rainfall in some locations potentially leading to flash flooding. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the early morning hours of Tuesday with the main hazards being damaging winds, large hail, and a brief tornado or two. - Another round of thunderstorms are possible along a cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary threats. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Most of east-central Missouri and along I-70 in western Illinois have observed multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms today. An MCV has been the impetus for this redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening. It has also finally dislodged the training showers and thunderstorms with convection approaching the Mississippi River and rainfall coming to an end behind. Highest convective rates are currently just southwest of St. Louis, with rainfall totals now averaging 2 to 4 inches, locally 4 to 5 inches, across the Flood Watch. There is also a threat for a quick spin up tornado or two along with mostly sub- severe hail. The weak tornado threat is due to an outflow that stalled near Crawford to Washington to St. Francois Counties. We have also had a few storms with elevated cores just below severe limits. This is likely due to the ~7 degrees C/km mid-level lapse rates. Convection will clear the area by 10 PM. The end of the showers and thunderstorms will be short lived though as another line of showers and thunderstorms has already formed across central and eastern Kansas. This line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly move east overnight and weaken across central Missouri. Damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two will be the primary threats. How quickly the line weakens remains the primary question. The overall thinking is that the line will weak substantially by the time it reaches I-70 near Columbia, MO. The weakening of the line is due to the displacement of the showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front. The surface cold front will likely be just northwest of Columbia, MO Tuesday morning and stall near a Columbia, MO to Quincy, IL line through mid-afternoon. Behind the cold front, the chance of precipitation and severe weather is low, while ahead of the cold front another round of showers and thunderstorms appear likely. Surface based CAPE is forecast to be in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range with around 30 to 40 kt of SFC to 6 km shear. The best shear looks to be offset from the best instability, or behind the surface cold front. Hodographs due show some cyclonic curvature in the lowest levels, but it is weak. Most of the forcing will also have to come from the surface cold front. Given the above, the environment does appear to br supportive for some supercell development, with some storm splitting possible. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has the region southeast of Columbia, MO to Havana, IL in a slight risk for severe storms. Damaging wind gusts and large hail appear to be the primary threat. After the final round of showers and thunderstorms moves across the area Tuesday evening, storm total rainfall amounts (from Monday morning to Tuesday evening) of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts of 6 to 8 inches appear likely. As such, have expanded the flood watch until Tuesday afternoon. These amounts of rainfall will result in some flash flooding. Residents should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to seek higher ground if a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area. BAH && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A surface cold front will be located across southern Missouri Wednesday with most of the region expected to be seasonably cool and dry. The one exception to this is across Reynolds, Iron and Madison counties were another round of thunderstorms will be possible close to the frontal boundary. Thursday into Friday, another mid-level wave will be located over the Mountain West with low level flow out of the southwest. As this occurs, the cold front will wash out with temperatures rising along with a return of showers and thunderstorms. The warm up will then persist into the weekend and early next week as another wave approaches from the west. This warming trend is supported by both the LREF and NBM IQRs. Looking at global ensemble guidance, a general building of mid-level heights is forecast to start this weekend across the Eastern United States and then retrograde west next week. BAH && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night) Issued at 110 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A weakening complex of thunderstorms is currently pushing eastward into the area, with the leading edge of strongest convection stretching from near Quincy MO to just east of Columbia MO. Behind the leading edge of convection, widespread stratiform rain with occasional lightning is being observed. KCOU/KJEF just went through the leading edge with KCOU reporting a wind gust to 33kts and brief IFR visibilites/MVFR ceilings. As a result, within the stronger convection, brief IFR visibilites/MVFR ceilings are expected. This complex of convection is forecast to continue weakening with eastward extent, resulting in lower confidence of impacts at the St. Louis metro terminals. As of now, the leading edge is forecast to arrive between 07-08z with around a 30% chance for IFR visibilites/MVFR ceilings. Lingering stratiform rain is forecast for several hours behind the convection, with visibilities forecast to stay P6SM, aside from heavier showers that may briefly result in MVFR visibilites. A cold front approaches from the northwest early this morning with MVFR/IFR ceilings expected just ahead of and behind this front. Confidence in IFR ceilings is highest at KCOU/KJEF/KUIN, with potential for below airport minimums on Tuesday, as indicated by the mention of the TEMPO group. Currently, MVFR ceilings are forecast for the St. Louis metro terminals, with the lowest ceilings (<1kft) forecast to stay to the west. Confidence also remains low with how quickly ceiling improve later this evening and into the night, with guidance generally improving conditions around 06z tonight. Ahead of the cold front, southerly winds will prevail, however, gusty and variable winds related to showers and scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Behind the cold front, northerly surface winds are forecast to prevail across the area by later this evening and continue into Wednesday. Peine && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Bond IL-Calhoun IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL. && $$ WFO LSX  285 FXUS63 KMPX 190610 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 110 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers & thunderstorms tonight. A few could become strong to severe storms from far-southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The overall risk has decreased. - Seasonably cool & dry midweek. Rain chances return at the start of Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 All is quiet to start the day as the surface low pressure sits almost directly over the Twin Cities. Widespread stratus and patchy fog spread out on the north and west side of the low, limiting temperatures from warming this afternoon. The cold front is essentially draped along the I-35 corridor south of the Twin Cities, while the warm front extends east from the Twin Cities slightly north of I-94. Expect scattered showers to develop across the Central Plains this afternoon, and spread north into MN and WI through the evening. The heaviest rainfall and best chance for thunder will be around 8pm to 12am. The best environment for thunder, and potentially a strong to severe storm, will be in that warm sector east of the cold front and south of the warm front (i.e. east of I-35 and south of I-94). Overall the threat has decreased due to limited instability (noted by the 1630z update to the SPC Day 1 SWO). The main threat will be large hail and strong winds, as well as localized flash flooding anywhere that thunderstorms train for several hours. Light rain will wrap up Tuesday morning as the upper level wave pushes east. At the surface, breezy northwest winds will develop and strong CAA will keep temperatures about 10-15 degrees below normal. Additional showers may develop as the cold air advects in, though saturation will be very limited throughout the profile. Mostly quiet weather will persist until this weekend as a shortwave develops over the Northern Plains. This will provide us with a few chances for rain, though ensemble QPF is mostly around a few tenths and in the range of a normal rain event for this time of year. In other words, Memorial day weekend will have occasional rain, but nothing to change plans over at this time. Temperatures will also be gradually rising throughout the week, peaking on Monday with widespread highs in the 80s possible. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 109 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers continue to make their way gradually to the northeast. AXN, RWF, STC should remain dry for the rest of the night while RNH and EAU should be clear by 10-12z. Cigs will be slow to improve today. All sites will start out in either IFR/LIFR categories prior to sunrise and then increasing to MVFR by 13-15z timeframe. As of now, cigs look to not return to low VFR until 23- 00z this evening. Winds will continue to be breezy today out of the NW at or about 15kts with gusts between 20-25kts before decreasing this evening. KMSP...Light rain showers expected to clear MSP by 09z. IFR cigs expected to linger for the rest of the night but should return back into low MVFR by about 15z. Winds will prevail out of the NW at or about 15kts with gusts between 20-25kts for much of today. Winds decrease this evening with low VFR cigs returning around 02z timeframe. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts, shifting to SE. THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...Dunleavy  403 FXUS63 KARX 190612 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 112 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The severe weather threat looks lower for tonight. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the Slight Risk further south. The northern extent of the Slight Risk now only extends north to Interstate 90 where before it extended as far north as northeast Minnesota. - Patchy to areas of frost possible in north-central and central Wisconsin on Tuesday night and Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 This Afternoon and Tonight The squall line that moved through our area last night has moved south into the Interstate 70 corridor. South of this line, the temperatures are in the lower 80s and dew points ranging from the mid-60s to lower 70s. With rain cooled air north of this boundary, this air mass will remain south of our forecast area for tonight. As a result, we have seen a reduction in the instability available for the storms along the cold front tonight. Surface-based CAPES which looked to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range yesterday are now only up to 750 J/kg. In addition, the stronger 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear remains post frontal. The CAMs are progressively moving the squall line further and further south. Much of the consensus in the CAMs has this squall line moving east across southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Further north, there are more scattered thunderstorms. This has reduced the severe weather threat because there would be less coalescing of the cold pools. Due to this, we reached out to the Storm Prediction Center and was able to get a more southern shift in the Day 1 Slight Risk. It is now south of Interstate 90. There is now a Marginal Risk from Interstate 90 north into Upper Michigan. If there is severe weather, it would occur between 19.03z and 19.07z. The primary threat would be damaging winds. Tuesday A northern stream shortwave trough will move northeast across western and northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. This will result in some scattered morning showers. The strong cold air advection in the wake of the cold front will continue into the day. High temperatures for the day will occur around midnight in the mid- and upper 60s. Temperatures during the day will be in the 50s and 60s. Tuesday Night and Wednesday night The combination of mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s and 40s. There could be the potential for even colder temperatures in central and north-central Wisconsin. This could result in some patchy to areas of frost in our traditional cooler areas of central and north- central Wisconsin. Friday into the Weekend A northern stream shortwave will move slowly east through the region. As this occurs, there will be periodic showers and storms. Like yesterday, both the 0-3 and 0-6 km shear remain less than 30 knots. As a result, the probabilities for organized severe weather look low. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Strong winds in the wake of exiting precipitation will shift east, gusting 40kt at KLSE at 19.06Z TAF issuance. MVFR-IFR ceilings seen over central Minnesota shift southeast into the area overnight, affecting both KLSE and KRST TAF sites. Aviation impacts lift through Tuesday morning and afternoon with scattered showers and strong northwest winds. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...JAR  355 FXUS64 KBMX 190611 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 111 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 108 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 - Warm conditions are expected again on Tuesday with highs near 90 degrees. - Chances for showers and storms increase Tuesday night into Wednesday and continue through the weekend, with the highest (40-70%) chances in northern and western portions of Central Alabama during the afternoon and evening hours each day. - High moisture levels will support periods of heavy rain, though total amounts are anticipated to be light (1 to 2 inches across the area). && .DISCUSSION... (Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 Over the last few hours, we have been watching a few thunderstorms work up the I-65 corridor. A H7 shortwave has been helping guide this activity within a plume of healthy moisture advecting north across the state. These storms are likely to wane over the next hour or two. While chances are low (20-30%), I wouldn't be surprised to see patchy fog develop late tonight, especially in locations that saw rain this afternoon and evening. As we head through the day Tuesday, the upper ridge off to our east will begin to be suppressed as a stout upper trough slides across the Plains. An associated cold front will slowly move towards the southeast, eventually stalling just off to our west. Convection is likely to develop along and ahead of the boundary through the day Tuesday. Latest CAMs continue to hint at this activity decaying before making it into Central Alabama. We will need to monitor trends and any lingering outflow boundaries that may keep this activity going a bit longer and making it into our northwest counties. We will hang onto low to moderate chances for showers and storms daily Wednesday through the end of the week as several shortwaves traverse through the southwesterly flow aloft and interact with the stalled boundary. PWATs will remain elevated through the end of the week, generally in the 1.7-1.9" range which will help support periods of heavy rainfall. Despite the prolonged period of increased rain chances, rainfall amounts are not too impressive, roughly 1-2" across the area. While widespread severe storms are not expected, we could see a few stronger storms develop as we reach peak heating each afternoon. By the weekend, the stalled front retreats back to the north, leaving plentiful moisture in place. Continued bouts of upper level energy will keep moderate rain chances in the forecast. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Convection has tapered off for the night. Residual moisture from the evening's rains will result in a low probability for patchy fog. Will leave out of the TAFs for now, but will be monitoring trends for any potential amendments. Otherwise, light and variable winds overnight will become south to southeast 5-10kts with mixing during the day Tuesday. Rain chances return Tuesday evening in the west to give a low probability at TCL for rain. Will leave out for now from TCL terminal. Chances are better during the day Wednesday. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are in store for much of the day Tuesday with minRHs in the 40-50% range during the afternoon. Rain chances increase late Tuesday into Wednesday and continue into the weekend as a front stalls near the region, with higher Min RH values. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 88 65 87 64 / 0 0 70 50 Anniston 88 65 87 64 / 10 0 50 30 Birmingham 89 70 87 67 / 0 10 60 50 Tuscaloosa 90 69 88 67 / 0 20 40 40 Calera 90 67 89 66 / 0 10 40 50 Auburn 89 69 89 67 / 0 0 30 10 Montgomery 90 69 89 68 / 0 10 20 20 Troy 90 68 89 67 / 10 10 40 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...08  483 FXUS61 KCLE 190614 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 214 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Slight Risk for Tuesday has been expanded to include nearly the entire forecast area. Otherwise, no significant changes were made with this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The hottest temperatures of the year thus far will continue through Tuesday. The heat will break behind a cold front on Wednesday with below normal temperatures continuing into Thursday. 2) A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Northwest Ohio and possibly close to the lakeshore this afternoon into early this evening. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening. 3) Unsettled weather with periods of rain expected and thunderstorms possible over the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Deep warm air advection will remain in place across the area over the next couple of days, resulting in above normal to near record temperatures across the area through Tuesday. Temperatures will remain in the 80s to around 90 degrees through the remainder of this afternoon with temps into the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight. Temperatures will decrease a bit faster in locations that receive rain (most likely NW OH) this afternoon. Temperatures will once again rise into the 80s and possibly touch 90 degrees Tuesday afternoon, although confidence in temps reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s (and possibly touching record values) is slightly lower than today due to low- end chances of morning showers, afternoon convection, and increased cloud cover. Dew points will likely be a bit higher on Tuesday afternoon so it will definitely feel muggy. Those spending time outside this afternoon and during the day Tuesday should wear light/loose-fitting clothing and hydrate and sensitive groups should consider limiting time outdoors during peak heating. Temperatures will cool down for mid to late week with highs in the 60s expected Wednesday and Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 2... As of 230 PM EDT, a line of severe thunderstorms was moving east across Indiana. There is a very tight instability gradient that ends just within the western fringe of the local area so anticipate storms to quickly weaken as they encounter less instability later this afternoon and early this evening. Nonetheless, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible, especially in the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) area that's in place across the Toledo area as the storms move in over the next couple of hours. Isolated stronger storms are possible in the northern portion of the area where there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, however large hail is possible and a quick spin-up can't be ruled out in the Slight Risk area. Once convection weakens this evening, scattered showers may persist across NW OH through the overnight hours with low-end PoPs expanding east across the local area Tuesday morning. The moist, unstable air mass will remain in place over the area on Tuesday, especially if the forecast trends drier and sunnier than currently forecast. MLCAPE values will likely exceed 2000 J/kg by peak heating Tuesday with effective bulk shear values likely increasing to 30+ knots as a cold front advances east towards the area Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, although there's some uncertainty in the placement of convective initiation and exact timing of thunderstorms. Thunderstorm development will likely rely on early day cloud cover and any showers that develop Tuesday morning. Given the instability and shear profile, storms may be strong to severe and there is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather across nearly the entire area. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern, but some storms may produce large hail. A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. KEY MESSAGE 3... A period of dry weather is expected Wednesday through Thursday before precipitation chances increase Friday through the holiday weekend as weak low pressure and a frontal boundary slowly drift north across the Ohio Valley. There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in the timing and coverage of showers (and possibly a few thunderstorms) over Memorial Day Weekend, but at the moment it looks like the best chances of precipitation will occur Friday night and Sunday into Monday. Confidence in the likelihood of hazardous weather is low this far out, but will continue to monitor trends in guidance and adjust the forecast/key messages as necessary. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... VFR conditions early this morning. The main focus of the TAFs remains shower/thunderstorm potential. A few showers are possible between about 11-18z from west to east. Activity should be fairly sparse and restrictions would be brief and limited, so at the moment only included VCSH. Attention then turns to thunderstorms that are likely to develop late this afternoon and spread east across the area through this evening ahead of a cold front. There is some amount of uncertainty with the timing and placement of these storms if earlier activity ends up more robust than expected. The current TAFs assume that earlier activity won't be too detrimental to the main thunderstorm threat this evening, and has TS included at all sites with TEMPOs for more significant restrictions and wind gusts with thunderstorms. Showers likely linger into tonight as the cold front pushes into the area, though convective potential should decrease by late this evening. MVFR ceilings are likely behind the cold front, which begins getting into the TAFs at TOL/CLE. South-southwest winds of 6-12kt will continue through early this morning. Have low-level wind shear in at several locations given a 40-45kt southwesterly low-level jet and poor low-level mixing. Winds increase to 10-20kt with gusts 25-30kt later this morning and this afternoon as low-level wind shear ends. Some thunderstorms late today into tonight may be severe with isolated peak gusts over 50kt possible with any severe storms. Outlook...Non-VFR continues into Wednesday in lower ceilings and possibly rain showers. Non-VFR possible in showers Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... South-southwest winds continue until a cold front crosses the lake overnight tonight. Winds will generally be in the 10-20kt range, with gusts in the nearshore waters of 25-30kt likely this afternoon. Will go with a Small Craft Advisory from Cuyahoga County points west where winds will be gustiest...not quite as gusty farther east, though still on the breezy side. Waves of 1-3 feet in the nearshore will increase to 2-4 feet in the open waters today. Thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late this afternoon and evening may produce strong wind gusts over 35kt and locally up to 50kt over the lake. Winds whip around to the north-northeast late tonight into Wednesday at 10-17kt behind the cold front, keeping 1-3 foot waves going. Winds increase to 15-20kt and gradually turn more northeasterly into Thursday and easterly into Friday as strong high pressure passes north and northeast of the lake. East-northeast winds often perform well in these types of setups and have continued to inch up in the forecast, and a period of small craft/beach hazards headlines is looking increasingly likely for at least some of the nearshore waters late this week. && .CLIMATE... High temperatures today and Tuesday will approach record values. The following are the records for May 18 and 19 at local climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889) 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan  593 FXUS61 KPBZ 190616 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 216 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains largely unchanged, with continued confidence in storm arrival in eastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania after 8 PM tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Highest risk for severe storms/damaging wind gusts will be in areas of northwest PA/eastern OH, with diminishing risk near Pittsburgh. Conditional severe threats remain on Wednesday southeast of Pittsburgh with a departing front. 2) Heat impacts for sensitive populations continue early this week, with temperatures up to the upper-80s to low-90s. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An outflow boundary from earlier convection to our west is moving west-to-east south of Pittsburgh this morning. It would not be a surprise to see an isolated shower pop along it, but with buoyancy largely tapped out and HRRR/RAP/HRW soundings showing capping at around 500mb, anything more than that is not expected. That capping is maintained through the morning and into the afternoon, even as the heat-providing upper ridge begins to break down in response to an Upper Midwest/Great Lakes shortwave, and as 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE develops. Thus, only isolated/widely scattered activity is forecast at most through sunset, with areas north of I-80 perhaps a bit more likely to see a shower/storm through then given that area's proximity to the shortwave and perhaps the development of a lake breeze boundary. As far as the more organized convective threat tonight, the most likely scenario presented by CAMS remains the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in western Ohio in the 22Z-00Z window ahead of a cold front, perhaps associated with a prefrontal trough. These storms should be weakening as they approach northwest PA/eastern OH after 01Z or so due to diurnal buoyancy loss as well as 20-25 knots of 0-6km shear fostering only loose organization/limited cold pool consolidation. Still, with up to 900 J/kg of DCAPE available north and west of Pittsburgh, strong to severe downdraft winds remain a decent possibility in the taller storms; this is the area highlighted in SPC's day 1 Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk. Hail is a lesser concern due to the lower shear and poor mid-level lapse rates less than 6C/km. Also, with around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1km storm- relative helicity available north of I-80, a tornado cannot be totally ruled out in this area as LCLs lower, although 0-3km CAPE may be a bit low. Convective intensity is expected to wane overnight as the parent cold front moves in, but some showers and storms will continue. Wednesday still presents a more limited and conditional severe threat in the Laurels and in the WV ridges. This will depend on frontal timing and the amount of rain/cloud cover in the region during the morning into the afternoon. A slower front, with less precipitation and some cloud breaks out ahead, could allow sufficient destabilization for an isolated damaging wind threat. Scenarios with a faster front and more solid cloud cover could largely choke off the threat for strong convection. This will need to be monitored, and the SPC Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk southeast of Pittsburgh shows the potential threat area well. After Wednesday, severe chances taper off. KEY MESSAGE 2... With temperatures hovering mostly in the upper 60s and lower 70s this morning, a few maximum low temperature records may be challenged today. As the ridge breakdown alluded to above takes place today, 500mb heights should experience a slight decrease as compared to yesterday. Coupled with the likelihood of a bit more daytime cloud cover with lingering moisture, high temperatures are likely to reach levels a degree or two cooler than yesterday. This will keep most locations in the upper 80s, with lower-mid 80s north of I-80 and in the terrain. The NBM continues to show a warm bias with its mean values, and kept the forecast numbers lower as a result. The NWS Heat Risk remains in the "moderate" range given the cumulative effect of the warmth since yesterday. Another warm and muggy night is possible ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms tonight, but the passage of the cold front on Wednesday will definitively end the risk of excessive heat for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR is expected through much of the day as mid and high clouds continue to increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Model soundings and the CU rule indicate scattered cumulus clouds should develop by mid morning with surface heating. There is a potential for a shower or thunderstorm to affect a few airports from late morning into early afternoon with leftover boundaries from earlier convection to our west, though this potential is limited, and too low for TAF inclusion at this time. In addition, SW wind is expected to gust to around 20kt during the day with mixing. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to track across Ohio late this afternoon and evening in advance of an approaching cold front. It appears that the instability should be diminishing as these storms advance eastward, with an overall weakening trend by late evening. Included prob30 mentions for most sites across Ohio and western PA, from mid to late evening as these storms approach. Outlook... Restrictions and showers are likely by late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the cold front slowly crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. A few thunderstorms are also possible. Restrictions are possible mainly south of PIT Wednesday night and Thursday as a wave of low pressure tracks along the front. Restrictions and showers return from S-N Friday into Saturday as a warm front lifts north across the area. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL AVIATION...WM  601 FXUS64 KSHV 190616 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 116 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 107 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening areawide. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. - Widespread rainfall is expected almost every day through the next week. By next Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches in most locations. - Rainfall totals are generally expected to be spread out over a long duration. However, flash flooding will become a concern by the end of the week, and especially during the weekend as soils become saturated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A very active and wet weather pattern is expected across the entire forecast area for the next seven days. Our first chance for rain is already taking shape in the form of a convective complex from Missouri, into Southeast Kansas, and Northwest Oklahoma. These storms are developing along an advancing cold front. The storms should weaken during the nighttime hours, but scattered convection should begin affecting locations north of Interstate 30 by mid to late morning today. Thunderstorm intensity and coverage should increase as another linear complex develops by early afternoon ahead of the cold front and along remnant outflow boundaries. Deep layer shear will be somewhat modest but sufficient to support a few severe thunderstorms when combined with moderate to strong instability between 2000 and 3000 J/kg. Damaging winds should be the primary threat, especially as the line surges southward, likely reaching I-20 by late afternoon, and moving south of the forecast area during the early evening. However, large hail and a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Model guidance suggests a large area of rain and thunderstorms will persist behind the initial line gradually decreasing in coverage, but not ending completely Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. No additional severe weather risk is currently forecast beyond early Tuesday evening. The cold front will slowly move southward into the forecast area and is expected to become stationary near or just south of I-20 by Wednesday evening. A shortwave trough embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft should bring another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. This will just be the first in a parade of shortwave troughs to move northeast across the region with another expected during the day Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before a much stronger upper trough develops across Western and Northern Texas late Saturday and into Sunday. More organized convection and heavier rain rates may occur Sunday as the developing trough induces surface cyclogenesis, increasing vertical ascent, wind shear, and moisture flow into the region. Drought conditions persist across the region, including large areas of D3 (Extreme Drought) per the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. We need the rainfall. Despite the forecast generally showing continuous PoPs, showers and thunderstorms will not be ongoing for every hour of the next seven days, but there will be a lot of rain. Potential rainfall totals through next Tuesday could be between 3 and 7 inches in most locations. Most of this will occur over a fairly long period of time. However, soils will become increasingly saturated with time. Flash flooding may begin to become a concern by Thursday or Friday, especially across portions of East Texas south of I-20. A greater risk for flooding may occur Sunday with the more powerful upper trough over the Southern Plains. Otherwise, low temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with daytime highs holding steady in the lower 80s. The exception will be today where daytime highs across much of the area ahead of the front will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s, possibly higher if the convection arrives later in the day. /Nuttall/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 107 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Getting an early start to MVFR ceilings already streaming north across NE TX, impacting our TYR/GGG and LFK terminals already. Look for this cloud cover to continue expanding north and east and will likely encompass the TXK/SHV and MLU terminals by sunrise with the ELD terminal not too far behind. Still looking like an active day on Tuesday with strong to severe thunderstorms impacting all terminals by this afternoon into the early evening hours before moving rapidly south and east of our southern most terminals just before midnight if HRRR timing is correct. Timed this precipitation along a southeast oriented squall line through our airspace with VCTS and TEMPO groups for much lower VSBY and stronger convective wind gusts. Otherwise, outside of convection, look for SSE to SSW winds today near 7-12kts sustained with gusts upwards of 25kts. /13/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 107 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Spotter activation may be needed areawide today through early this evening. /Nuttall/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 71 84 70 / 70 80 60 70 MLU 92 71 85 69 / 40 80 70 70 DEQ 83 66 81 65 / 90 40 50 60 TXK 89 68 84 67 / 90 50 50 60 ELD 90 68 83 66 / 80 70 70 60 TYR 88 69 82 68 / 90 80 70 60 GGG 90 69 83 69 / 80 80 70 60 LFK 91 72 85 71 / 30 70 90 60 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...09 AVIATION...13  151 FXUS62 KTAE 190624 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 224 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected through late week. There is a high chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without cooling/hydration. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through the next few days with coverage increasing this weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that develop. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Monday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The region remains on the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge with the surface high meandering in the western Atlantic. Aloft, mid/upper ridge arcs from the southern Gulf northeast to off the Atlantic coast while an upper low is situated in the Bahamas. Further west, longwave troughing extends through the Rockies into the eastern Pacific. In between the trough and ridge is a cold front stretching southwest from the Great Lakes to western Texas. Ridging will remain in place through this week despite the upper low trying to make it to the southeast coast then ridging will strengthen as the upper low translates south into the Caribbean. The central CONUS trough tries to move east but is essentially blocked by the upper ridge with shortwaves riding within the longwave flow over the ridge into southern Canada. The aforementioned cold front stalls in northern Alabama and Georgia Thursday then pushes north Friday and gradually dissipates this weekend. Around our neck of the woods, PWATs are around 1.2-1.3 inches today and Wednesday with limited 850-700mb moisture and stronger drier air aloft from 700-500mb. This will lead to less coverage of convection (20-40%) each afternoon, less cloud cover, and above normal high temperatures. Highs will be in the low 90s and pushing mid 90s in some locations which will set heat index values in the mid to upper 90s and close to 100F. PWATs begin a gradual increase Thursday though convection appears limited to the east coast seabreeze. Friday into the weekend, the western Atlantic high pressure shifts eastward with not as much dry mid level air as in mid week. PWATs increase to 1.7+ inches which, along with surface winds becoming more southerly, should increase seabreeze and diurnally driven convection each day. Rainfall chances increase to 40-60% heading into the weekend. With the added rainfall and potential cloud cover, high temperatures won't be as hot with readings in the upper 80s to low 90s. However, with the added moisture, heat index values will still run in the mid to upper 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Current conditions are VFR. There are some scattered clouds that may affect the DHN and ECP terminals through daybreak. At most, it may bring cigs down to MVFR. Another stratus deck might approach the VLD terminal this morning with the potential for IFR cigs. Due to low confidence, the TAFs remain VFR but with a TEMPO group indicating lowering cigs are possible. VFR is expected to then prevail for the rest of the TAF period with light south/southeasterly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure will be the dominate weather feature across the northeast Gulf waters through the period producing light to occasionally moderate southeast to south winds and one to three foot seas into the first half of the upcoming weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Good dispersions are expected the rest of the week, though a few pockets of high dispersions may occur Thursday and Friday, as mixing heights will range 5500-7000 feet and transport winds of 10 mph. Moisture will continue to filter into the area keeping afternoon humidities above 40% each day. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible along the afternoon sea breeze. Some of these storms may produce gusty, erratic winds as well as frequent lightning strikes. Chances for rain gradually increases each day and especially into this upcoming weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week, however, better chances will reside beginning this weekend. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 70 92 70 / 10 0 10 10 Panama City 87 71 87 70 / 10 0 20 0 Dothan 91 70 91 69 / 0 0 20 10 Albany 91 69 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 92 67 92 69 / 20 0 0 0 Cross City 93 67 93 69 / 40 10 10 10 Apalachicola 85 74 85 71 / 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Scholl  210 FXUS64 KLIX 190625 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 125 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 112 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and widespread Wednesday through the weekend. 7 day rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches in the northwest to less than an inch of much of coastal MS and extreme SELA. - Minor coastal flooding may slightly impact typically known problem areas like Waveland, MS today and Wednesday around midday. - Temperatures are forecast to be generally near to warmer than normal through the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The upper pattern this evening shows a ridge along the Atlantic Coast with a trough from the Canadian Prairie Provinces to Nevada. At the surface, the Bermuda high extended westward across much of the northern Gulf. A frontal boundary was over the Plains States. Locally, skies were partly to mostly cloudy at midnight with temperatures in the mid and upper 70s and dew points in the mid 70s. Looks like summer has arrived. Precipitable water values from the 00z upper air sounding across the region were in the 1.6-1.7 range, which is between the 75th and 90th percentile for mid-May. Those values don't really change much between now and Friday. What does gradually change is the track of upper shortwaves in the southwesterly mean flow over the next few days. The track of the impulse along the Texas coast this morning looks like it will remain mainly to the north and west of our area. So, similar to yesterday, soundings will support isolated to scattered convective development, but we don't anticipate organized convection this afternoon in our CWA. The nearest organized convection this afternoon looks like it will be in the Arklatex area. There is at least some potential for the Arklatex complex to develop a cold pool which could force it southeastward toward the local area this evening and overnight. If this does occur, it would have the potential to produce damaging winds, but that's a conditional threat and not a certainty. Coverage of convection yesterday was considerably less than what the NBM numbers indicated, and this looks to be true again today. Considering that, and the high temperatures from Monday, bumped forecast highs up a couple degrees for this afternoon. Wednesday's shortwave exiting the trough will track a little closer to the local area, producing somewhat higher areal coverage of convection, and thus, slightly cooler high temperatures. By Thursday and Friday, shortwaves will be tracking just about over our area, with likely or higher PoPs looking justified. While there doesn't appear to be a great threat of severe weather beyond the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall will be the main or ongoing threat for the second half of the week. With precipitable water values remaining around the 90th percentile, and storm motions probably not much more than around 10 knots through at least Thursday, any areas that receive repeat convective cells could have issues with street flooding. The main threat area would look to be across the northwest, along and west of a McComb to Baton Rouge line. We'll take this day by day, but there's at least some potential we may need a Flood Watch at some point later this week. There won't be much day to day change in temperatures with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s that will be more determined by when precipitation occurs during the day in any one location. Convective temperatures will be pretty close to 90 every day, so that's a pretty decent starting point, but areas that see midday thunderstorms will fall a little short of that. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 70s, but if a cold pool develops with a complex of thunderstorms, that would knock lows down a bit. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Through the weekend and into the start of the new workweek next week the region will remain on the western periphery of the H5 ridge over the northeast Gulf. This will keep the active southwesterly flow aloft overheard and will continue promote a wet pattern with little changes expected through the period. The main concern will be timing of H5 vorts as the move northeast within the flow. Overall, think the better rainfall chances will be during the afternoon hours where impulses may align with afternoon heating, but even during the off times there could still be some scattered convection possible. PWATS during this time will close in on 2.0 inches so cannot rule out localized flooding potential, especially west of I55 where the best ascent will be vs MS Gulf Coast closer to the 592dam ridge. Temperatures in the long term look to be held down just slightly due to higher POPs and cloudiness with most locations warming to around seasonal averages during the afternoon hours. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR to IFR ceilings will be in place prior to sunrise at most or all terminals. Those cloud bases will begin lifting after sunrise and should be MVFR to VFR prior to midday. Isolated to scattered TSRA will be possible this afternoon with the main threats at KMCB and KBTR. Will use PROB30 for now, until convection actually begins developing. This main threat would be during the late afternoon and early evening. There's a conditional second threat of TSRA during the overnight period, if storms over the Arklatex area can develop a cold pool and head southeastward toward our area. There's not enough confidence in that scenario to carry it in the forecasts at this point, but the threat is definitely not zero. Low clouds are likely to produce some flight restrictions beyond 06z Wednesday at several terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A large area of high pressure will remain situated over the western Atlantic through the week and into the weekend. This will maintain light to moderate onshore flow through the time. Winds will bounce around headline criteria over the next 24 to 36 hours with sustained winds right around 15 kts, especially closer to the coast. Exercise Caution headlines will be in effect for the remainder of the night for the waters west of the mouth of the river along with Breton and Chandeleur Sound. As for showers and thunderstorms daily isolated to scattered light showers will be possible each day however the bulk of the coverage will remain inland. With any thunderstorm locally hazardous winds and waves can be expected. One last hiccup is maybe some very minor coastal flooding impacts, mainly around the Waveland area given the high astronomical tides and persistent southerly winds. Today midday may be the peak of any tidal impacts. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW  452 FXUS63 KBIS 190627 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 127 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lows tonight into Tuesday morning around 30 to 35 degrees, coldest in northwest North Dakota. - Near to below freezing temperatures possible again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, except in far west central and northwest North Dakota. - Unsettled weather pattern develops mid to late week. Highest and most widespread chances (around 30 to 60 percent) for rain are Thursday through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 127 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Current radar shows a few stray light rain showers or sprinkles meandering across western and central North Dakota. With this update we converted all precipitation mentions to a slight chance of sprinkles and greatly expanded the areal coverage this mention primarily throughout central North Dakota tonight through Tuesday afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 1025 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Showers have generally exited to the east of western and central North Dakota at the time of this mid evening update. Weak radar returns linger over portions of central North Dakota, though with such poor forcing only sprinkles are anticipated at this time. Otherwise, with clearing skies found upstream to the northwest of the forecast area, did opt to add some patchy fog to northwest for the early to mid morning. UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Light rain continues across portions of south central North Dakota at the time of this early evening update, with sporadic reports of drizzle also found further to the west. Precpitation is generally expected diminish from west to east through the evening. More isolated showers will be possible across the west and south central overnight, though additional accumulation is would be light. Have tweaked the PoP grids in line with the latest CAM guidance. Will also need to evaluate the potential for additional fog development tonight, especially across the northwest where low stratus is expected to diminish the quickest. Overall, the forecast remains in good shape at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current surface analysis places low over the upper midwest with notable frontal boundary stretching to the southwest through the central plains. High remains over southern Saskatchewan into central Montana. Upper level analysis places trough over Saskatchewan southward towards the central Rockies. Southeast flow over our area with some embedded short waves is resulting in broad shower activity over much of South Dakota into southeast/south central North Dakota. For tonight, ongoing showers will continue into this evening before departing to the east/northeast. In the meantime, surface high settles into the area, mainly western locations, with cool air continuing to slide in. This will result in sub freezing temperatures over parts of western and north central North Dakota, therefore a Freeze Warning has been issued. Further east, confidence is a little lower as to how cold it will get given the persistant cloud cover. With that said, lows look to dip close to or reach freezing, so have decided to go with a Frost Advisory for that area even though technically "frost" will not form, but sensitive plants could be damaged, especially if temperatures are a degree or two lower than forecast. Trough pushes east early Tuesday, with a low amplitude ridge passing over for Tuesday into Wednesday. Expect a gradual warm- up for high temperatures, but Tuesday night may see some freezing lows, mainly over our east given the high passing over and clearing skies. Next trough digs in over the western CONUS on Thursday with our flow shifting southwesterly before the system closes off and ejects to the northeast to close out the week. Greatest chances for precipitation come Thursday into Friday (about 30 to 60 percent chance). Warming trend expected going into the weekend with NBM temperature spreads being quite confident in seeing well above average temperatures by late weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 127 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Expect mostly MVFR ceilings overnight, except in northwest North Dakota, lifting from west to east Tuesday morning and afternoon. A few light rain showers or sprinkles are possible through Tuesday afternoon, with no impacts to aviation expected. Winds will remain northwesterly around 5 kts in western North Dakota to 15 kts at KJMS through Tuesday afternoon, then become light and variable over central North Dakota and southeasterly around 10 kts in western North Dakota Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-017>020-022-031>033-040-041-043-044- 055>059. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ013-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-060>062. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Hollan  259 FXUS65 KTFX 190626 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1226 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of the region. - More widespread precipitation is expected on Wednesday through Thursday. - Temperatures will gradually warm through the week with the warmest temperatures expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview After a cool start to the morning, temperatures will warm modestly into the 50s and 60s. Lingering moisture on the backside of the upper-level trough combined with modest instability will allow for pop-up showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon today. On Wednesday another upper-level trough will arrive bringing a chance for widespread wetting precipitation to the region. Snow will be generally confined to locations above 7,000 feet with the rest of the lower elevations seeing primarily rain through the event. As the upper-level trough starts to slowly exit the area towards the end of the week, temperatures will gradually start to warm up as upper-level ridging begins building over the western CONUS through the weekend. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: For today, hi-res models were showing pretty scattered 15-30% chances for precipitation across the region. In general, most locations will remain dry throughout the day except for where these pop-up showers end up developing. The highest chances for thunderstorm activity will be across North-Central Montana with any precipitation in Central and Southwest Montana expected to be more stratiform in nature. There is still good agreement for widespread wetting rains. The heaviest amounts are currently expected along a stretch from the Northern Rockies down through Central Montana including Great Falls and Helena into Lewistown. Probabilities of more than 0.25" of precipitation are currently sitting at 60-80% with a 20-40% chance of 0.5" or more. While precipitation amounts across the remainder of North-Central and Southwest Montana are not expected to be quite as high there is still at least a 40% chance for a tenth of an inch or more. -thor && .AVIATION... 19/06Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail throughout the duration of the 1906/2006 TAF period; however, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop between 16-19z Tuesday and persist through 03-06z Wednesday across Southwest through North Central Montana. Main impact from any shower or storm will be erratic winds and brief reductions in CIGS to low-VFR, along with mountain obscuration. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 64 40 56 38 / 40 20 70 80 CTB 63 37 53 34 / 20 30 90 40 HLN 65 38 60 37 / 30 30 40 80 BZN 62 33 60 34 / 0 30 20 90 WYS 54 25 54 29 / 10 20 20 80 DLN 61 33 61 34 / 10 20 10 70 HVR 68 40 60 36 / 40 60 50 30 LWT 60 36 56 35 / 20 30 70 80 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls  815 FXUS63 KGID 190631 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 131 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next chance of precipitation will come Wednesday (20-30%) and Wednesday night (40-70%). A mix of showers and non-severe thunderstorms may deposit up to 0.1-0.5" of precipitation. - Periodic thunderstorm chances return each day between Wednesday and Sunday. - Highs through Thursday will remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A multi-day gradual warm up back to the 80s will then transpire over the weekend. - A few patchy areas of front will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for mainly Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard and Nance counties. && .UPDATE... Issued at 129 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Today we will finally take a pause from the mention of severe weather as there will be no chance for any sort of precipitation today. A more stable and cooler airmass has now blanketed the area and will keep conditions generally more quiet for the next few days. Winds this morning blowing out of the north to northwest between 15- 20MPH and gusting as high as 25-30MPH, will gradually slow down later this afternoon and evening as higher pressure filters in near the surface. Highs through Thursday will mainly stay in the upper 50s to mid 60s with overnight lows returning back to the mid 30s and 40s for the next at least three nights. The potential for frost will make its return back to possibly a limited northern portion of the area Tuesday night. With lows nearing the mid 30s and with calming overnight winds, frost formation could be possible in a handful of locations north of I-80 (mainly across Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard and Nance counties). If this trend continues, a Frost Advisory will need to be considered for these locations overnight Tuesday. The next chance for precipitation will not come until Wednesday as the next low amplitude shortwave trough wobbles through the Central Plains region. A few AM showers could pass near to just west of the area (20-30% precipitation chance). The better precipitation potential (40-70% chances) will come later Wednesday night as a mix of shower and non-severe thunderstorms move into central portions of Kansas/Nebraska. Given the cooler temperatures, a weaker CAPE profile (<500J/km) should limit the total number of storms and keep the mention of severe weather out of the discussion. Otherwise, winds for both Wednesday and Thursday will remain out of an easterly direction, blowing mainly between 5-15MPH with occasional gusts as high as 20-25MPH. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A broad upper level trough over the Rockies has been the driving force for severe weather yesterday and today. Water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave crossing much of the Central Plains this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are currently going up along a boundary stretching from Hebron, NE to Lincoln, KS, as of 2:30 PM CDT. The main threat are a few tornadoes, golf ball size hail, and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Severe weather is forecast for Mitchell and Jewell continues in KS and Thayer county in NE. Storms will move out the region by the late afternoon with a majority of the severe weather threat off to the east. Areas behind the cold front, which is much of the county warning area, will see low stratus lingering into tonight causing light rain and drizzle. Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop down into the mid to upper 30s across the county warning area. However, cloud cover and elevated winds, around 15 mph, will likely keep frost from forming. Low stratus should start to clear out by the early morning hours west to east. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to climb up into the 60s. Low temperatures tomorrow night are forecast to drop down into the lower to mid 30s across the northern half of the warning area. Unlike tonight, winds are forecast to be on the lighter side allowing frost to potentially form. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Central Plains. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the region Wednesday bringing forth chances for more precipitation. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side through the middle of the week as the cooler airmass lingers across the Plains. Thus, temperatures are forecast to range from the 60s to low 70s through Friday. Daily chances for thunderstorms returns from Wednesday night into the weekend. NSSL machine learning program and the CSU machine learning program are pegging Friday with a low chance of Severe weather mainly across the southern half of the county warning area. It is possible this low chance of severe weather shifts further south. Temperatures will warm this weekend as an upper level ridge begins to build across the Central US. This warm pattern will continue into early next with conditions drying out. The NBM 25th to 75th percentiles have high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s to the mid 90s. Thus, fairly high confidence on above normal temperatures to start out next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Low ceilings tonight will impact the terminals across part of the morning. IFR conditions look to be done and through for the night with just MVFR conditions left in place. A few clearing clouds just west of the Kearney area may soon break apart the MVFR ceilings at KEAR within the next 2-4 hours. MVFR ceilings will likely be slower to clear at KEAR (closer to 12-14z). No precipitation will be expected at either site through the day today. Winds start out at their strongest point today (15-20kts and gusting up to 25-30kts) with speeds expected to gradually slow down through the rest of the day. Light and variable winds are expected to materialize after 2z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Stump DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Stump  994 FXUS64 KFWD 190631 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 131 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected along a cold front on Tuesday across much of North and Central TX. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue Wednesday into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible but the severe weather threat appears low. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite imagery shows a rapid expansion of low clouds over the last 2 hours across Central and North Texas indicative of strong low level warm moist advection. A 40-50 kt low level jet is indicated on both the FWS and GRK VAD wind profiles which will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward into the region overnight while resulting in intermittent strong wind gusts. Farther to our north, a cold front is sagging south through Oklahoma with a line of showers and thunderstorms draped across the northwest part of the state. This front will continue to move south toward the Red River by sunrise and will serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms across North Texas later in the day. Continued warm advection ahead of the front should result in a few scattered showers beneath a modest capping inversion through the early morning hours, but convection should become more numerous by late morning and early afternoon as the front approaches the I-20 corridor. The high resolution guidance has a pretty good handle on the frontal boundary, but there are some differences in convective evolution through midday. As the low level jet begins to veer and pull off to the northeast, some of the guidance takes the bulk of the stronger storms through the Arklatex, with a weaker line extending westward along the I-20 corridor. This seems plausible given that we'll have some capping and time of day would result in a minimum in surface based instability across the Metroplex. Additional strong storms would then be likely to develop a little later in the day farther to the south and west along the frontal boundary when stronger heating results in more instability. The rest of the guidance just brings a line of showers and storms all the way through North Texas with no general weakening trend through midday and further intensification south of I-20 into the afternoon. While it's difficult to pin down the exact scenario that will play out, given the current radar trends to the north, strength of the low level jet and availability of 3000+J/kg of MUCAPE, we'll lean toward this line of storms maintaining some intensity through the early morning hours as it crosses the Red River and approaches I-20 through midday. Further intensification of this line is expected by afternoon as very strong instability will be present along with additional support from a weak embedded shortwave spreading out of Mexico. There will be a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail with any of the storms today. The tornado threat is very low compared to our last few severe weather events. High temperatures will likely be held in check with extensive cloud cover and scattered convection. We'll keep highs in the low/mid 80s Tuesday afternoon. The front and the line of storms should push into Central TX by late in the day with the frontal boundary becoming stalled out Tuesday night. There will be an increasing potential for heavy rainfall, mainly in Central Texas with any lingering activity Tuesday night. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 With the remnant frontal boundary still draped across Central Texas on Wednesday, we'll see scattered showers and thunderstorms continue, although the best coverage will be to our south and east through the afternoon. Most areas in North Texas will remain dry with PoPs only around 20%. By Wednesday night into Thursday, an upstream shortwave will spread into West Texas with height falls overspreading the Southern Plains. A moisture rich atmosphere will be in place across North Texas with PWs in the 1.7-1.9" range. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across West Texas Wednesday night and across all of North and Central TX on Thursday. This will likely be the day we see the heaviest rainfall and potential for flash flooding. At this time, the current forecast has most areas picking up 1 to 3 inches of rain, but some of our southern and southeastern counties may receive as much as 5 inches of rain through the end of the week. With the upper pattern continuing to feature slow moving upper disturbances within an area of broad forcing for ascent and PW values just shy of 2 inches, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the end of the week and into the weekend. The overall severe weather threat appears to be pretty low during this time, but the threat for efficient rainfall producing storms and associated flooding will increase by Thursday into the weekend. Dunn && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR cigs are rapidly expanding across the region early this morning and expect them to overspread all TAF sites here within another hour or so. These low cigs will continue into Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front and should move through the D10 airspace between 16-20Z. We'll show VCSH by 13Z as some scattered showers may develop beneath a capping inversion during the early morning hours. TS potential will increase by late morning and we'll have a TEMPO for TSRA from 17-20Z. Winds behind this initial line of storms will likely be lighter and more variable with a very general easterly direction prevailing. Flow will gradually become more northeast through the late evening hours. MVFR cigs will prevail again Tuesday night into Wednesday. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Limited spotter activation may be requested on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 64 80 67 / 90 20 20 50 Waco 84 66 81 68 / 90 90 20 50 Paris 81 63 77 66 / 90 20 20 40 Denton 80 62 78 65 / 90 20 20 50 McKinney 81 63 81 66 / 90 20 20 50 Dallas 82 65 80 68 / 90 20 20 50 Terrell 82 64 81 66 / 90 40 20 50 Corsicana 86 65 80 70 / 100 80 30 50 Temple 86 66 80 69 / 70 100 20 60 Mineral Wells 83 61 78 64 / 90 20 20 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$  283 FXUS63 KGRR 190633 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 233 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Line of Storms moving out this evening - More storms on Tuesday - Frost/Freeze Wednesday Night across the North && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Severe Line of Storms moving out this evening A line of storms that was well forecast by the Hi-Res ARW will be moving across the southern half of the forecast area this afternoon and moving off to the east this evening. Downdraft CAPE values of over a 100 J/kg in the airmass the line is moving through means downbursts with severe wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threat with this line. Scattered storms with isolated severe winds and/or hail are possible across the north. The severe threat winds down this evening as the line of storms moves off the the east with little to no additional QPF expected overnight with the atmosphere being effectively stabilized. - More storms on Tuesday Surface cold front moves southeast across the forecast area on Tuesday afternoon attended by scattered strong to severe storms as surface based CAPE approaches 1500 J/kg. Best chance for severe weather will be across the southeast forecast area where instability is greatest. Deep layer shear greater than 40 knots will also aid the cause. The cold front will move southeast of the forecast area during the evening, ending the threat with a much cooler airmass moving back in. - Frost/Freeze Wednesday Night across the North Canadian surface high building in on Wednesday and Wednesday night with dew points dropping into the 20s and 30s will lead to min temps cold enough for Frost/Freeze headlines across about the northern third or half of the forecast area. Temperatures moderate by the end of the week as low pressure moves up from the south bringing rain by Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and storms are located upstream over Wisconsin and Illinois making slow progress to the east. We expect these decaying showers/storms to move into Western Lower Michigan between 10z and 12z. The decaying activity will move through the TAF sites during the morning. MVFR ceilings will also develop for places like MKG, GRR and AZO associated with the moisture increase. There will be a lull in the midday hours with a redevelopment of stronger storms for AZO, BTL, LAN and JXN between 20z and 02z. These storms will be capable of poor aviation conditions (IFR and lower) along with strong winds in excess of 40 knots. The showers and storms should taper off after 02z as a cold front presses south through the area. VFR weather is expected into the overnight. In general, winds will be strong today out of the south and southwest. Speeds will generally be between 15-30 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 No changes to the SCA. Winds and waves will remain hazardous to small craft through Tuesday. A cold front moves through late Tuesday and northwest winds could gust to 25 knots into Wednesday before diminishing Wednesday night as high pressure builds in. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...Duke MARINE...Ostuno  330 FXUS64 KMRX 190634 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 234 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 231 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - Very warm temperatures Today and Wednesday with highs roughly 10 to 15 degrees above normal. - Increasing chances for showers and storms return Wednesday, with continued chances each day into the weekend, especially across the higher elevations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Mostly dry today, NBM has no POPS, but can't rule out a few isolated afternoon/evening showers and storms. Otherwise, very warm with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Near record highs at TYS and TRI. On Wednesday, models still show a short-wave trough pushing the ridge east and opening the door for a frontal passage. Showers and storms will increase in coverage in response to the lower heights and higher moisture. Highest POPs will be across the east TN mountains and Cumberland plateau. REFS and LREF instability probs show high odds that CAPE values will be less than 1000 J/kg. Combine this with mid-level lapse rates of 6 degrees or less and little to no shear, severe storms are not expected. On Thursday the frontal boundary lifts north and back into the area and provides focus for more showers and storms. The highest POPs will reside along the frontal boundary. It's hard to say exactly where it will be within our area. Instability and shear once again remain limited, so no severe threat for Thursday either. For Friday, ridging returns and the frontal boundary lifts north into KY. However, plenty of moisture and instability remains so scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again expected. No real changes during the weekend into early next week period. We will continue to have an unsettled pattern in place with an environment conducive to daily showers and storms. Overall, the severe threat remains low during this time due to lack of shear. QPF through the period will be very hit or miss. Some areas may see several inches of rain over the next 7 days while some see far less. This is due to the scattered nature of the convection. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR and dry weather expected. An isolated shower or storm is possible, but like yesterday, coverage will be too minimal for inclusion. Otherwise generally light winds, a gust to 15 knots is possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 68 89 66 / 10 0 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 91 68 89 66 / 0 0 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 89 65 87 64 / 0 0 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 63 87 63 / 0 0 50 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...Wellington  591 FXUS63 KGRB 190638 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong winds gusts are possible early this morning as scattered thunderstorms move across the area. - Frost or freeze headlines may be needed Tuesday night and Wednesday night. - Warming back up this weekend with returning chances for showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move northeast across east- central and northeast WI early this morning in association with a passing mid-level short-wave and strengthening LLJ. The risk for severe thunderstorms is very low given weak instability, however, any storm may be capable of producing brief wind gusts of 40-50 mph and small hail. On the western back edge of these storms surface obs from SE MN and western WI are showing 40-50 mph wind gusts out of the southeast, indicative of a wake low. As the precipitation erodes to the east expect these stronger wake low winds to make it into central WI over the next few hours. Another round of showers and storms is likely later this mornings as a cold front, currently snaking from far NW WI back toward south- central MN, sweeps across the region. CAMs do show some weak instability (100-300 J/kg) building ahead of the front which could support an isolated stronger thunderstorm, however, the risk for any storms reaching severe limits is low. Behind the front steep low- level lapse rates associated with the CAA regime may spur on isolated showers through this afternoon. Any lingering showers should wane this evening as high pressure starts to build back into the region. The area should remain under the influence of high pressure for the remainder of the week leading to dry conditions. With the high overhead Wednesday night and a dry air mass in place (PWATs ~0.3") lows are forecast to fall near freezing across northern WI which may prompt the need for frost/freeze headlines. The next chance (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms arrives this weekend as southerly return flow delivers warmer and more moist air back to the region. Global ensembles and long range ML products are not highlighting much of severe storm with this system at this point. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Ongoing line of rain and thunderstorms is moving east across central and into northeast WI as of 0530Z. The main line has exited KAUW, KCWA, and KRHI, but a small thunder threat remains for the next couple hours from additional development to the south. Main hazard along and east of the main line over the next 3 to 4 hours will be strong wind gusts to 40 knots and heavy rain. There remains a small potential for isolated severe wind gusts to 50 knots, but expect this potential to diminish as the storms move east. Widely scattered showers remain throughout Tuesday morning, with conditions area-wide drying out after ~18Z. Most location are still VFR, but expect cigs to drop to IFR/MVFR overnight, with improvements to MVFR/VFR this afternoon. Additionally, fog off Lake Michigan will drop vsby at KMTW at times through Tuesday morning. South winds veer southwest overnight, and then veer to the west- northwest Tuesday behind the cold front, along with wind gusts to 25 kts. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......KLJ  565 FXUS65 KPUB 190638 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1238 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and Freeze highlights remain in place for portions of the plains through 8 AM. - Cooler and wetter weather expected today and tomorrow, with best chances for widespread precip coming in tonight. - Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible on Thursday, especially on our eastern plains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 The post frontal cold airmass is finally here to stay, and critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for the next several days. Temperatures have fallen into the 30s and 40s across our plains and mountain valleys. With some lingering moisture and upslope in place, fog and freezing fog will be possible across the Pikes Peak region, the Arkansas River Valley, down into the Wet Mountain Valley and our mountain adjacent plains west of I-25. Frost Advisories have been been issued for many of these places that are into their growing seasons by now, and northern El Paso County remains in a Freeze Warning through 8 AM this morning as well. Temperatures look to stay cool under mostly cloudy skies today, though some clearing will be possible later this afternoon, especially further east where upsloping will be less impactful. Daytime highs are likely to remain in the 50s across the 1-25 corridor, with 60s for the San Luis Valley and the eastern plains. Some very light rain may be possible over our mountain adjacent plains and eastern mountains this morning as upslope deepens, but better chances for wetting rains move in after sunset as shortwave energy embedded in another trough out west comes through the region. Most areas along and east of the Continental Divide, and along and west of the I-25 corridor are expected to see chances for rain tonight into Wednesday morning. Snow levels look to drop down to 8,000 or 9,000ft in some areas, which should put some light snow accumulations on the higher peaks of the Sangres, the Wets, and the central mountains through the overnight hours. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night/early this morning in most places, though the Palmer Divide may drop down into the 33 to 34F degree range once again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday.. We start out our Wednesday morning cool, cloudy, and with precip chances for most areas, but dry out gradually through the morning hours, especially for areas south of Highway 50. After a morning lull in precip chances though, another approaching trough looks to bring showers and thunderstorms back for most of the high country and portions of our plains. Daytime highs in the 50s and 60s and more stable conditions on the plains should limit any chances for severe storms as the trough approaches, but clearing over the high country may lead to a few stronger storms. Thursday.. Thursday could be an interesting day as our next trough digs in to our northwest and brings stronger forcing for possible severe thunderstorms to our region. Models bring its axis into western CO through the afternoon, with southerly and southeasterly surface flow out ahead of if it through much of the day. This brings 40 and 50 degree dewpoints back into the plains, and juices up instability as well. Shear looks to be forecast around 35kt to 45kt for much of the eastern plains, where 50 degree dewpoints look to be possible. Models are not in great agreement about where a dryline may set up obviously with the event being this far out, but it is safe to say that Thursday will need to be watched closely for severe potential across our plains. Friday Onwards.. Models keeps us in cool northwest flow behind the front on Friday, though showers and thunderstorms look to remain possible, especially over and near the higher terrain. We warm up through the weekend as high pressure tries to build to our southwest, but enough moisture looks to stay over the region to keep at least slight chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain through the weekend. Winds look to stay on the weak side and humidity values look to stay above critical thresholds through the extended as well, so at this time fire danger is not expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1059 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 KCOS and KPUB: MVFR conditions are expected tonight as thick, low level clouds fill in over the TAF sites, and again at the end of this TAF period. VFR conditions are expected to return late Tuesday morning and through a majority of the afternoon. Looking at winds, winds will continue to lessen tonight to at or less than 10 knots. Winds will see a slight uptick in magnitude tomorrow, and while an occasional gust to around 20 knots is possible, consistent gusty winds are not anticipated. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected tonight, though brief periods of light drizzle can not be ruled out for KCOS. Dry conditions continue into tomorrow afternoon, though with persistent rain then developing during the later portions of this TAF period. KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds tonight will quickly increase by late tomorrow morning, and remain gusty through the rest of the TAF period, with peak gusts during the afternoon hours as diurnal mixing becomes established. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will increase in coverage tomorrow afternoon and evening, with showers potentially impacting the TAF site, though the greatest coverage of showers is expected to remain east of the TAF site. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ084. Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ085>089- 094>096. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...SIMCOE  905 FXHW60 PHFO 190643 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 843 PM HST Mon May 18 2026 .SYNOPSIS... An unstable and somewhat wet trade wind pattern will continue through Tuesday night, with brief downpours possible. From Wednesday into early next week, an area of high pressure north of the islands will push drier air the region and strengthen winds. The result will be a moderate to breezy trade wind pattern. && .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM HST Mon May 18 2026 Similar to yesterday evening, the heavy showers that occurred at select spots during the day have diminished. Only light, isolated showers remain embedded within moderate to locally breezy trade winds favoring windward areas. The forecast remains on track, so no significant updates have been made this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 PM HST Mon May 18 2026 Showers across windward and mauka areas, along with the Kona Districts on Big Island, were noted on radar this afternoon. Some showers have been producing moderate to briefly heavy rain, and this has resulted in the issuance of flood advisories on Kauai and on Big Island. These showers will trend down around sunset. Winds were averaging 10 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Conditions remain on the humid side this afternoon as we await drier air that should arrive from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Until that arrives, we will continue to see rather wet trades, meaning we will continue to have the chance for moderate to briefly heavy rain from showers. From late Wednesday onward, we will see noticeably lower PW values (down around 1 inch) going all the way into next week. Aloft, an upper level ridge will become established to our north, even as weak troughing will extend off the southwest coast of the mainland toward Hawaii. This troughing will have little to no impact on our surface weather, as the upper ridging will help keep relatively dry trades established over the region. Dewpoints will fall several degrees as the dry air comes in, allowing a little more cooling overnight for wind-sheltered areas. && .AVIATION... Issued at 840 PM HST Mon May 18 2026 Moderate to locally breezy trades expected hold for the next couple days. Low cigs and SHRA will primarily impact windward and mauka locations with some limited spillover to leeward areas. MVFR conds possible in heavier SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward Kauai, Maui and the entire area of the Big Island. && .MARINE... Issued at 840 PM HST Mon May 18 2026 The pressure gradient back from a surface high centered about 1,500 nautical miles northeast of the islands remains tight enough to support moderate to locally fresh trades the next couple of days. The anchored high will expand and strengthen through mid to late week. The resultant very tight gradient back across the Central Pacific will produce fresh to locally strong to near gale force nearshore winds the later half of the week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is currently in effect over the windier zones surrounding Maui County and Big Island. The SCA will likely be expanded in area later this week to account for more areawide strengthened trades. A small size, short to medium period north northwest swell is expected to fill in overnight into Tuesday. A gale low skirting the Aleutian Islands the next couple of days will send the tail ends of small north northwest swells through late this week. A series of small, long period south southwest swells will provide near summer average size surf along south-facing shores throughout the week. Strengthening trades later this week will keep short period, elevated eastern wind wave chop alive well into the weekend. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...Vaughan DISCUSSION...Parker AVIATION...Bohlin MARINE...Blood  849 FXUS63 KABR 190642 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 142 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost/Freeze expected tonight/Wednesday morning (28 to 33 degrees) between the Missouri valley region east into the Sisseton hills region. - Another round of moisture mainly Friday. Lower and upper range for moisture is just a few hundredths to a 1/2 inch. - Turning warmer late weekend/early next week, about 10 to 20 degrees above normal (Highs: 80s to near 90). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Will leave the frost advisory in place though temperatures still in the low 40s/upper 30s with cloud cover and mid/upper 30 dewpoints, and northwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph making frost highly unlikely expect in the most protected/drainage prone areas. Focus for freeze conditions continues tonight with high pressure shifted a little east in comparison to previous forecasts, centered over the Sisseton hills region. This still makes us ground zero for a frost/freeze. From the Missouri river and north of highway 14 NBM temperatures are still down around 30F. NBM upper bound (90th) even has lows in the low/mid 30s so at a minimum a frost. And the NBM has been consistent, leaving little doubt that the area will experience these cold temperatures and related impacts. Additionally, daytime heating still showing up in NAM/GFS/RRFS BUFKIT profiles with shallow CAPE between 2 to 3kft up to about 6kft. Cloud cover dissipates with loss of daytime heating. Evening temperatures are only expected to top mid 50s. Did bring back the mention of sprinkles as well. Aside from frost, some evidence for fog under the high given recent moisture and cool temperatures/lack of mixing. Focus shifts to additional rain chances late Thursday through Friday with southwest flow and then a negatively tilted shortwave. After that flow becomes more zonal and then another trough sets up out west for early next week. This flow regime results in milder temperature trends with NAEFS 850mb temperatures increase to a standard deviation above climo. NBM highs Sun-Tues some 10 to 20F above climo, though starting Friday the NBM 25th/75th range in temperatures begins to expand to 7 to 10 degrees suggesting lower confidence. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will return by 22Z at all TAF locations, with MVFR ceilings lingering longest at ATY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for SDZ003>005-009-010-015-016-033>035-045. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for SDZ004>011-016>023-034>037-051. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...06  924 FXUS61 KBTV 190644 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 244 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... Winds were increased for today and tonight as warmer temperatures help mix stronger winds aloft to the surface. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... 1. Well above normal temperatures expected on Tuesday with much cooler weather expected on Wednesday and Thursday. 2. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. 3. Cooler and drier conditions are favored Thursday and Friday before a transition back to seasonable temperatures and a wetter pattern. 4. Seasonable temperatures and increasing chances of precipitation expected for the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Continued warm air advection will set the stage for unseasonably warm temperatures on Tuesday. The latest NBM shows high potential for 90 degree weather, however, much of the other guidance and MOS is showing temperatures likely plateauing in the mid to upper 80s. Cloud cover and convection will be a huge factor in determining how warm we get as a lot of guidance suggests partly to mostly cloudy skies. Any convection would increase cloud cover and any precipitation would drop temperatures significantly. Still, there is overwhelmingly high confidence in high temperatures being 15 to 20 degrees above normal. On Wednesday, a cold front will likely push through the region during the morning hours which will limit daytime heading with strong cold advection expected to follow in the wake of the front. We could still warm into the 80s across eastern Vermont but will likely be in the 70s for most of Vermont and New York based on the timing of the frontal passage. Thursday will be 10-20 degrees colder than Wednesday as we will see temperatures struggle to climb into the mid 50s to lower 60s. North winds in the 10-20 mph range will help make it feel a bit blustery, especially after the recent warmth. Most clear skies should help it feel a little warmer given the late May sun angle. KEY MESSAGE 2: The convective potential for Tuesday continues to remain very conditional. A lot of the machine learning and AI tools are showing modest probabilities (15-30%) for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening while the latest deterministic guidance shows rather lackluster instability. There is high confidence in around 50 knots of deep-layer shear as we have a strong 500 jet move overhead but the thermodynamic profiles keep fluctuating from model run to model run. Even though temperatures are expected to warm into the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints rising in the lower to mid 60s, the mid-level lapse rates between 850 mb and 500 mb aren't exactly what you want to see to maximize severe potential. In addition, no notable surface convergence outside of orographic lifting is expected with the cold front not expected to come through until Wednesday morning. There will be some weak height falls under anticyclonic flow aloft and a weak shortwave trough pushing through which will give up some deep layer support but getting storms to initially develop will be difficult. The main focus, initially, will be across the higher terrain and along lake breezes as this could create some surface convergence and the upper level support could take over from there. There may be residual cloud cover from overnight convection across western New York which may stunt surface heating. Should this occur, instability values may underperform further and lead to little to no thunderstorm activity. Hence the condition potential. Largely unidirectional wind profiles with slight curvature in the Champlain Valley is expected which likely makes Tuesday a wind threat. High LCLs will strongly inhibit tornado potential with high freezing levels also making severe potential very difficult to come by. The main window for convection will be between 4 and 8 PM with instability waning rapidly following sunset. KEY MESSAGE 3: Winds weaken Thursday night with skies clearing; this may be a period of concern for some frost outside the Champlain Valley with lows in the mid/upper 30s for many locations, and low 40s for the Champlain Valley. Temperatures begin to warm up on Friday with northwest flow weakening, high temperatures will reach the 60s areawide. A slow warming trend is then expected through the weekend into Monday. Models begin to split on precipitation timing heading into the weekend. Consensus maintains some chances of showers increasing Saturday with more widespread rain Sunday. However, a number of models are beginning to hold onto the ridge longer delaying precipitation onset until the late weekend. Either way, a pattern shift to deep return flow from the Gulf Coast northeastward into the Northeast is appearing probable. This flow pattern would result in multiple days of rain potential once it sets up. KEY MESSAGE 4: There continues to be considerable differences in both ensembles and deterministic models in how shower chances play out for the upcoming holiday weekend. Ensemble members of both the GEFS and ECMWF are roughly split equally on whether waves of precipitation will cross the area Saturday into Sunday. The deterministic ECMWF also favors a wetter solution. Meanwhile, the remaining ensemble members along with the GFS and CMC keep ridging more firmly in place, with the axis running just to our east. This would keep rain shunted to our south and west through the day Saturday and most of Sunday, then trending rainy for Memorial Day. With this much uncertainty, have stayed with the NBM solution for now. Either way, temperatures will be seasonable with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. SKC conditions this evening will see gradually increasing clouds overnight, though expect ceilings to remain AOA 10 kft through 12z Tue, and likely AOA 4000 ft through the remainder of the TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, some of which may be strong to perhaps severe. Coverage/timing is too uncertain at this point to include any mention in the TAF, but MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorms. Surface winds become light and variable around 5 kt this evening. However, a LLJ moving overhead will allow for periods of LLWS at all terminals overnight. Surface winds increase out of the S/SW after 14z Tue, gradually shifting toward the W/SW with gusts of 18-25 kt expected. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... As of 236 AM EDT Tuesday... A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Winds are expected to increase this morning out of the south with sustained speeds 15 to 20kts and gusts around 25kts. These stronger winds will continue through 8 AM and will diminish to 15 knots or less until the early afternoon; winds then increase again as faster winds aloft mix to the surface. Gusts in excess of 20kts are probable before flow turns more southwesterly. South winds return tonight with stronger gusts possible. A front will pass through the region Wednesday resulting in a wind shift out of the north with gusts up to 30kts. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd DISCUSSION...Boyd/Hastings AVIATION...Hastings MARINE...Boyd  088 FXUS61 KILN 190645 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 245 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Continued to tweak Tuesday high temperatures slightly cooler from blended solution. Increased wind gusts this afternoon. Increased precip/thunderstorm chances across the far south early this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. 1) Above normal temperatures persist today. A cold front approaches the Ohio Valley on today, bringing a chance for storms, followed by cooler temperatures behind the front for mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A mid level shortwave and 5H 75-80KT jet pivots from the Upper MS Valley thru the Great Lakes today. An associated surface cold front tracks southeast across ILN/s area tonight. Shower and thunderstorms develop ahead of this front with a chance for strong to severe storms this afternoon into the evening. The most favored timing for severe storms is from 20Z-06z, though marginal confidence continues regarding onset time due to spread in model solutions. Moderately unstable environment develops with SBCAPE values around 2500 J/Kg ahead of the slowly advancing cold front. Forecast soundings indicate unidirectional wind flow with effective shear of 20 to 25 kts and DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/KG. Sufficient shear will be present for organized storms. The potential for strong to severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. Hail will also be possible within the strongest storms, with this most favored area over the west. The severe threat decreases with eastward due to the likelihood for storms to arrive later in the evening as instability decreases. KEY MESSAGE 1) A period of well above normal temperatures will persist today ahead of a cold front that passes through the area late tonight. High temperatures are expected to range from the mid-upper 80s west to around 90 in the east. Temperatures on Wednesday are mitigated in the wake of the front, along with any lingering showers and thunderstorms. Highs are expected to range from near 70 northwest to around 80 southeast. Cool temperatures linger into Thursday. Temperatures climb back to near normal Friday and then above normal this weekend. With the increase in temperatures and moisture, unsettled weather will return for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A few lingering showers may affect KCVG and KLUK early. Otherwise, there will just be with mid and high clouds. If there are sufficient breaks, then some visibility restrictions in fog may occur at KLUK. Few to scattered cumulus will develop with heating today. There is the likelihood of additional storms late this afternoon into tonight. A fair bit of uncertainty exists regarding onset of storms. Most favored timeframe is after 20Z. Have a mention of thunderstorms thru this evening ahead of a slow moving cold front. Southerly winds will increase with gusts around 25 kts this afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will remain possible into tonight. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible late tonight into Wednesday and then again Friday into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR  225 FXUS61 KGYX 190647 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 247 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Expanded the Heat Advisory to Coastal Rockingham county, but the overall forecast remains unchanged for today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot, well above normal temperatures move into the region today and Wednesday. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected today, with warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Another round of hot temperatures is possible Wednesday, mainly focused from the interior to the coast. 2. An approaching cold front will bring chances for thunderstorms today and chances for showers and storms Wednesday when the front crosses. Any thunderstorm that develops this afternoon will have the potential to become severe. 3. The second-half of the week will feature cooler temperatures and drier conditions. Unsettled weather is possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Not much has changed regarding the hot temperatures expected today and tomorrow. Any lingering fog over the coastal areas or interior should dissipate early this morning, giving way to a clear sky and plenty of sunshine. Rapid heating will lead to well above normal highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s across southern New Hampshire and portions of interior Maine. The Heat Advisory for Hillsborough and interior Rockingham counties looks to be in good shape with no changes anticipated. With limited moisture, heat indices will be a bit on the marginal side (approaching 95) but quite a change from what we have seen thus far in the Spring. Temperatures should remain quite warm overnight tonight as a southwest breeze continues ahead of an approaching cold front. Lows may only dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the south. Wednesday will be quite warm again but not as hot as today. Southern New Hampshire and interior/coastal Maine should still see highs in the mid 80s to around 90, but locations around and north of the mountains will be a bit cooler behind the front, mainly in the lower 70s to lower 80s. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The severe weather setup for today has become a little bit more interesting, especially over southern New Hampshire. A mid/upper level ridge will break down slightly through the day and most of the region will see some modest height falls. A weak surface low will move across Maine, dragging a surface trough with it. This boundary may be a focus for some isolated shower/storm development in the afternoon. These storms will be very hit or miss, and most locations will remain dry with limited synoptic forcing in the area. The one exception may be southern New Hampshire where a compact shortwave will move in from Vermont and provide some better lift. A few CAMs are now suggesting that a cluster of storms may develop in the early afternoon over the higher terrain in southern Vermont before moving into southern New Hampshire mid/late afternoon. NAM Nest soundings ahead of this modeled cluster suggest an environment characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30 to 35+ knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. This environment will be favorable for a few organized multicell clusters or even a transient supercell structure/bowing segment. Thus, any storms that move across southern New Hampshire could become severe capable of damaging winds up to 60 mph and some large hail. Forecast Significant Hail Parameter (SHIP) values are generally just less then 1 so the threat of very large hail seems low, but hail up to the size of ping pong balls seems plausible if we do see any transient supercell structures or sustained updrafts. The tornado threat appears to be fairly low given weak low-level shear. For the rest of the forecast area, some strong to marginally severe storms will be possible but instability will be decreasing moving north/northeast and forcing becomes more nebulous. The shear profile will be fairly similar. Showers and storms will move out and/or diminish with the loss of heating but we could see a few showers linger across the mountains overnight. A cold front then moves across most of the forecast area early in the day on Wednesday. Thunderstorms on Wednesday will generally be limited to areas along and ahead of the front, which will likely be south of the mountains. We could see enough heating to see a stronger storm or two around the interior or extreme southeast New Hampshire before the front pushes out over the waters, but the probability for severe weather appears low at the moment. A few showers may linger behind the front. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure moves in from the west, bringing cooler and drier conditions. This high pressure will keep more active weather to the south of the region. Over the weekend, a low may move into the area and bring meaningful rain to the area. However, there is still some uncertainty in timing as some guidance brings in the unsettled weather on Sunday while others don't have precipitation moving in until Monday. High temperatures will generally be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06z Wednesday...Onshore flow along the ME coast could develop low stratus and/or fog to RKD this morning. Fog should then lift later this morning after sunrise and a offshore wind shift for PWM south. 35kt LLWS possible through most of the morning with a steep surface inversion in place. SW winds increase after sunrise, with gusts 15 to 25 kt. Isolated to scattered showers develop into early afternoon, with TS possible through to the evening. TS may be focused along a line, passing west to east with MVFR to IFR vis possible in SHRA/TSRA. SHRA chances exit the coast this evening with VFR prevailing overnight. Outlook: Wednesday: Scattered showers and TS may bring localized restrictions late morning early afternoon. Otherwise mainly VFR. Wednesday night: VFR with NW winds gusting up to 20 kts. Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Friday night through Saturday: Clouds may increase and lower across southern NH and Coastal Maine. Low confidence in height and extent, but could see periods of MVFR south of the mountains. && .MARINE... Onshore winds advect moisture over the coastal waters this morning which may lead to some areas of fog. Showers and storms develop inland this afternoon and may track towards the NH/ME coast by evening. SW winds continue overnight, nearing 25 kt but confidence isn't high enough to issue a SCA at this time. Southwest winds turn westerly Wednesday as a cold front approaches and crosses the waters during the afternoon. Winds may gust up to 25 kts with seas approaching 5 feet. Winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds Thursday into Saturday as high pressure builds over the Northeast. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for NHZ013-014. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ012>015. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hargrove/Palmer AVIATION...Combs/Dumont/Hargrove  227 FXUS61 KLWX 190647 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 247 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes were made to the current forecast package. Another day of challenging record high temperatures. Subtle adjustments to spotty t-storm chances this afternoon. More widespread storms Wednesday with a 30 degree cooldown late week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. 2) Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Record heat continues through Wednesday. A strong cold front brings widespread strong to severe thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon and evening. It's another day of challenging record high temperatures given the strengthened upper level ridge over the region. After a warm start this morning in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s, temperatures will quickly surge. 850 mb temperatures will run +19 to +23 degrees C yielding highs well into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. The hottest temperatures look to be across the immediate I-95 metros and down into the central VA Piedmont where temperatures will run between 96 and 98 degrees. Heat index values will be similar to the air temperatures given the drier air at the surface and aloft. Even with that said, expect a slight bump in humidity with afternoon dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s making it uncomfortable for extended time outdoors. The strengthened ridge overhead combined with the high heat should put a lid on convection today. Still looking at a spotty shower or t- storm this afternoon and evening as another weak piece of energy passes through. Most of this convection will be tied to the mountains or perhaps the bay breeze given the lack of a mean lifting mechanism. Wednesday will mark the last day of the high heat before temperatures take a 25 to 30 degree nose dive late week. The front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Current 00z CAMS, and deterministic guidance show a prefrontal trough ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon with the actual front crossing Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. The prefrontal trough will be the catalyst for strong to severe thunderstorms given the ample instability and increased shear ahead of the boundary. SPC continue to highlight the area in a Level 1 out of 5 Marginal Risk for severe weather with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats. This aligns with the NCAR's AI NWP Convective Hazards Forecast currently has our region outlined in its 45%-60% probability for severe weather to occur, while CSU's Day 2 probabilities ranks the severe threat between 15 to 30 percent. Regardless of the severe threat, this front will likely result in widespread beneficial rain at a minimum as well as a 20-30 degree drop in temperatures expected later in the week. Lingering rain showers may still be moving out of the area by Thursday morning, while a meandering front to the south could bring additional rain showers to the region. Highs Wednesday will push back into the low to mid 90s with a few upper 90s across the I-95 metros and down into the Piedmont region. Mountain locations will be a touch cooler in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Conditions remain showery and cool Thursday into early next week, bringing much needed rain to the region. The synoptic scale pattern will remain relatively stagnant through the long term period, with weak upper troughing off to our west over the Ohio Valley, and surface high pressure off to our north and northeast. This will lead to a pattern where marine influence low- level easterly flow is nearly continuously overrun by south to southwesterly flow aloft. This persistent warm advection regime aloft atop stable low-level air will lead to cloudy skies with on and off showers Thursday through Monday. This will bring much needed, beneficial rains to the forecast area, with ensemble means showing around one to two inches of rain across much of the forecast area during that time. Highs Thursday will take a 25 to 30 degree dive behind the front with many locations struggling to push 70 degrees. Temperatures will continue to run below normal on Friday, struggling to make it into the 60s. Ensemble guidance shows much larger spread in temperatures Saturday through Monday, with some solutions keeping us locked into low cloud cover and temperatures in the 50s/60s, while some other solutions try to break us out of the low clouds, causing temperatures to climb into the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to continue across the terminals through Wednesday morning as high pressure strengthens offshore. South/southwesterly winds are expected again today gusting between 15 to 20 kts during the afternoon and evening hours. Spotty shower and thunderstorm chances will occur this afternoon although coverage will be even less today given the strengthened high pressure overhead. With that said, did not add PROB30s in the TAFS today given the lack of confidence although the two areas of concern would be terminals near the terrain and close to the water given the bay breeze influence. Sub-VFR restrictions return at times Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front brings widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. Winds will remain out of the southwest ahead of the front before shifting back to the north and northwest Thursday. Some low CIGS may hang on through Wednesday night before lifting Thursday as the front sits south of the region. Periodic rain showers moving through the region on Thursday afternoon and evening bring additional sub-VFR periods at terminals Wind gusts could reach 15-20 knots on Thursday before gradually decreasing. Sub-VFR conditions appear likely on Friday and Saturday in association with low clouds and showers. Winds will generally be out of the east to southeast on both Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... SCA southerly channeling can be expected again this afternoon and evening. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest with gusts up to 25 kts. Winds may near low-end SCA levels in south to southwesterly flow on Wednesday, and then again in northerly flow on Thursday. SMWs appear possible Wednesday into Wednesday night as thunderstorms move over the waters. East to southeasterly winds may near low-end SCA levels late Thursday through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Here are some daily temperature records during the May 18-20, 2026 timeframe: A '+' sign indicates multiple years currently hold that record. A '!' sign indicates the record is forecast to be tied or broken. ***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1997)+ 72F (2015)! Washington-Dulles (IAD) 92F (1997)+! 66F (2017)+! Baltimore (BWI) 98F (1962) 75F (1877) Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 98F (1962) 78F (1962) Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1911) 69F (1996)! Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (1962) 72F (1997) Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1962) 71F (1911)! Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 69F (2017)+! ***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026*** LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR) Washington-National (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019) Washington-Dulles (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019) Baltimore (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+ Baltimore Inner Harbor (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+ Martinsburg (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998) Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996) Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898) Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KJP/KRR/EST AVIATION...KJP/EST MARINE...KJP/EST  278 FXUS65 KBYZ 190648 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1248 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost/freeze conditions this morning. - Patchy freezing fog possible over the plains of eastern Montana this morning (up to a 20 percent chance). - Weather system brings the chance of precipitation to the area Wednesday into Thursday (40 to 90 percent, greatest over south- central Montana and north-central Wyoming). - Moderate chance of seeing at least 0.50 inches of liquid precipitation over south-central Montana and north-central Wyoming Wednesday into Thursday. Snow levels as low as 6 kft. Snow accumulations possible in the high country (moderate to high chance of 4+ inches of snow). - Warmer but still unsettled weather continues into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday... This morning will be cold with temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s under mostly clear skies. Over the plains of eastern Montana, patchy freezing fog is also possible (up to 20 percent chance), mainly where precipitation recently occurred. Any fog that does develop will lift after sunrise. While mostly dry conditions will prevail as temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s during the day today, a few light showers are possible over south- central Montana during the afternoon and evening (~15 percent chance). With this, dry air near the surface will likely favor virga over precipitation making it to the ground, but occasional sprinkles may occur. The dry air near the surface may also result in brief erratic winds with gusts around 30 mph. Wednesday into Thursday, a weather system will bring the chance of precipitation and a brief cooldown back to the area. Ahead of the cold front associated with this weather system, isolated to scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. With this activity, the main threat initially looks to be some erratic wind gusts (up to 40 mph) with dry air near the surface before the better atmospheric moisture moves in transitioning the threat to more moderate to heavy rain. The cold front will then drop through the area from north to south late Wednesday, turning winds out of the north to northeast. As this occurs, modeled atmospheric soundings suggest the atmosphere will saturate. This would allow more widespread light to moderate precipitation to develop over and near the mountains and foothills late Wednesday into Thursday. As the main trough associated with this weather system slides east Thursday, the chance of precipitation then shifts east and out of the area by late Thursday into early Friday. When all is said and done, the chance of seeing a half an inch (0.50") of liquid precipitation or more is 50 to 75 percent over and near the mountains and foothills in south-central Montana and north-central Wyoming. The chance of seeing a half inch or more of precipitation then decreases away from the foothills with there only being a 10 percent chance by Broadus to Miles City. As mentioned above, the mid-week weather system will bring a brief cooldown back to the area. With this, high temperatures on Thursday are forecast in the 50s and 60s after seeing 60s and 70s Wednesday. This will allow snow levels to start out around 8000 feet before dropping near 6000 to 6500 feet by Thursday. Subsequently, mainly snow is forecast in the mountains with this event, with rain over the lower elevations. It is not out of the question that some of the immediate foothill locations near 6000 feet in elevation see some snow though (moderate chance). As far as potential snow amounts go in the mountains, the current chance of seeing 6 or more inches is moderate to high, greatest over the northerly slopes of the Absaroka-Beartooth Mountains. Friday into early next week, temperatures look to gradually warm back above normal with mainly northwesterly to westerly flow aloft. With this, additional waves of energy may work through the flow, bringing occasional chances of precipitation. Arends .AVIATION... Patchy fog (20% chance) is possible into the morning hours over portions of the central and eastern valleys with VCFG at KMLS and KSHR. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions to prevail through the period. A weak disturbance moving in from the west will bring isolated showers to western and central areas, including KLVM and KBIL during the afternoon and evening hours. Gusty and erratic winds up to 30 kts are possible with the showers. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 065 042/070 044/059 040/071 045/080 050/083 052/087 1/U 13/T 86/W 10/B 00/U 10/U 01/B LVM 060 036/064 037/056 035/069 040/076 044/080 047/082 2/W 25/T 97/W 01/B 00/U 11/U 01/N HDN 066 036/072 042/059 037/073 041/079 046/084 049/087 1/U 12/T 67/W 11/B 00/U 10/U 00/U MLS 064 040/073 044/063 040/070 043/079 048/083 050/086 0/U 11/B 53/W 11/B 00/U 10/U 00/U 4BQ 062 039/072 042/061 039/068 042/077 048/082 051/087 0/U 00/B 25/W 41/B 00/U 10/U 00/U BHK 059 036/073 039/064 037/068 041/076 047/082 049/087 0/U 00/B 35/W 42/W 10/U 10/U 00/U SHR 059 031/066 036/052 032/066 036/075 041/080 043/085 0/U 01/B 39/W 42/W 01/U 11/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  473 FXUS61 KALY 190652 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 252 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... An unseasonable warm and moderate humid air mass across eastern NY and western New England continues today. Heat indices/apparent temps in the mid 90s in the mid Hudson Valley for eastern Ulster and western Dutchess Counties support a Heat Advisory this afternoon. Heat Risk is mainly moderate but some areas in a major category in the Advisory area. Convective threat continues today, though coverage and degree of severe t-storms is uncertain with areas north and west of the Capital District with the greatest risk. Marginal Risk continues from Albany south and east. Damaging winds continue to be the main threat with any severe convection. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well-above normal temps will continue today. There is an increased risk for heat-related illnesses this afternoon with Heat Risk values in the moderate to locally major categories. 2) Isolated-scattered t-storms are expected this afternoon into the early evening with a pre-frontal disturbance and ahead of the cold front, especially for northern areas. Additional t-storms are possible Wed pm, mainly for southern parts of the area. There is marginal to slight risk for storms to be severe today, with damaging winds being the main threat. 3) A return to more seasonable temps is expected Thu-Fri with the next chance for a widespread rainfall on the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Mid and upper level ridging continues to be in place over the East Coast with above normal heights over NY and New England. A south/southwest flow of anomalous warm and moderately humid air continues over the region. H850 temps are mainly +2 to +3 STDEVs above normal over most of the forecasts area. The actual H850 temps will be in the +16C to +19C range according to some of the guidance, which support with some deeper mixing with the sfc to boundary layer southwest flow high temps in the upper 80s to lower and spotty mid 90s in the valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s over the higher terrain. Some records could be tied or broken today for KALB/KGFL and see the Climate section below. Partly to mostly sunny conditions and the southwest flow ahead of prefrontal sfc trough could cause some downsloping off the eastern Catskills/Helderbergs to support temps in the 90-95F range in the Capital District/Hudson River Valley. We did not go quite as warm as the baseline NBM but closer to the prev forecast and the EC/MAV guidance for highs. The southwest flow may actually lower dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s this pm, but still there is enough coverage area with heat indices in the mid 90s for eastern Ulster and western Dutchess Counties that a Heat Advisory was issued from 11 am to 7 pm today. The heat index temps will be similar to actual temps in the afternoon. The hot temps and high or moderate humidity levels may cause heat illnesses and limit time outdoors. Stay cool and hydrated, since this warm spell is early in the Spring. The WPC Heat Risk is mainly in the moderate range (level 2 of 4), but the areas in the Advisory and also spotty areas in the Capital Region and NW CT are in the major range (level 3 of 4). Heat advisories in the ALY forecast area of NYS are issued for heat indices of 95F to 104F. Relief comes overnight into Wed, as the cold front moves through. Locations south of Albany and closer to the I-84 corridor could still experience heat indices in the lower 90s with a moderate heat risk, but an additional Heat Advisory for the mid-Hudson River Valley is not expected at this time. Some heat-related illnesses will still be a concern for the southern extreme on Wed based on a Heat Risk that is moderate (Level 2 of 4). KEY MESSAGE 2... The coverage of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms continue to be somewhat uncertain this afternoon into tonight. SPC continues a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for the southern Dacks, western Mohawk Valley and the Lake George Saratoga Region, and a Marginal Risk for the rest of the forecast area today into tonight. A lake breeze boundary and a pre-frontal sfc trough may initiate some convection in the early to mid pm. The latest HREFs indicate 0-6 km shear of 25-35 KT and mean SBCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg with pockets higher over the forecast area during the afternoon. However, warmer air occurs aloft under the ridge with weak mid level lapses. In fact, the instability decreases with drying in the boundary layer with some CAMS having MLCAPES less than 500 J/kg, while more robust CAMs with higher dewpts have MLCAPEs 500-1000 J/kg. The HRRR and even the 3-km NAMnest have limited convective coverage especially from the Capital Region north and west, while the WRF-ARW2 and the HRW- NSSL CAMs have more coverage with a greater severe threat. The low-level convergence with the sfc trough may aid in some strong to severe convection. Can not rule out a few severe with damaging winds the main threat from bowing segments. If a cluster or small line gets going from mult-cells, then the severe threat could support the Slight Risk better, especially north and west of Albany. The convection that does develop should diminish in the early evening prior to midnight, as the cold front presses forward across the eastern Great Lakes Region. Lows will be muggy in the 60s to lower 70s with some upper 50s over the Adirondack Park. The cold front continues to move across the region Wed late morning into the afternoon. The best chance for some strong to isolate severe thunderstorms continues to be south and east of the Capital Region, where a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) exists. The HREFs and some of the CAMs indicate SBCAPEs could be in the 500-1000 J/kg range with some higher amounts of instability closer to I-84 in Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. The 0-6 km bulk shear increases to 30-40 KT for an organized deep convection threat. Damaging winds and perhaps isolated large hail would be the main threats. Cool and breezy conditions will be occurring north of the convective threat where temps will be falling into the 60s and 70s. Some highs close to 90F are possible near I-84. The showers and thunderstorms should decrease by the late pm/early evening quickly. KEY MESSAGE 3... Strong low-level cold advection continues in the wake of the cold front Wed night with temps falling into the 40s to lower 50s and clearing skies. Lows in the Adirondack Park may fall into the mid and upper 30s. It will be breezy Wed night into Thu with high pressure building in from the Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario for Thu. It will be a much cooler and drier air mass with temps near to slightly below normal, as max temps will be in the mid 60s to around 70F in the valleys and over the hill towns with 50s to lower 60s over the mtns. Diminishing winds and cool temps expected Thu night with lows in the mid 30s to mid/upper 30s. There could be some patchy to localized areas of frost in the southern Dacks/southern Greens. One more dry day at least on Fri with fair weather and some increase of mid and high clouds late the day from I-90 south, as temps will be seasonable and slightly warmer than Thu with 60s to lower 70s. Fri night into the holiday weekend potentially looks unsettled at least on the weekend (Sat-Sun), as a warm front and a wave of low pressure may bring periods of rainfall. The medium range guidance and ensembles still show some uncertainty on the timing and the exact amount of rainfall. Our latest forecast shows 60-80% chances of rainfall Sat into early Sun at this time. Some improvement may come by Memorial Day. The rainfall and cloudy conditions may keep temps near to slightly below normal for the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 06Z/Wed, mainly VFR conditions are expected with occasional patches of high/mid level clouds. Isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and could briefly impact KGFL/KALB and KPSF between 18Z-23Z/Tue. A brief period of MVFR/IFR Vsbys will be possible within any passing downpours. South to southwest winds 5-10 KT through daybreak will become southwest to west and increase to 8-15 KT by afternoon with some gusts up to 25-30 KT. West to southwest winds will then decrease to 5-10 KT after sunset. Low level wind shear is likely through daybreak as surface winds from the south-southwest remain 10 KT or less, while winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the west-southwest to 30-40 KT. Low level wind shear is possible again after 03Z/Wed. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .CLIMATE... High Temperature Records: May 19 - Today Albany, NY: 91 degrees set in 1989 Glens Falls, NY: 88 degrees set in 1989 Poughkeepsie, NY: 96 degrees set in 1962 && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064-065. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...15 AVIATION...24 CLIMATE...31/15  531 FXUS62 KMLB 190654 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 - High risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at ALL central Florida Atlantic beaches today and may continue through much of this week. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged! - Increasingly humid conditions into this weekend will gradually expand the Moderate HeatRisk across east central Florida. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms move inland with the sea breeze during the afternoons, though most will remain dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Current-Tonight...Isolated showers continue to drift onshore prior to sunrise this morning embedded within east to southeasterly flow. This activity is forecast to continue through the early morning hours, before convection becomes greater focused on the interior and western half of the peninsula later in the day (PoPs around 20% or less this morning). High pressure remains offshore from the Mid-Atlantic seaboard today, with east to southeasterly flow enhancing to around 15 mph and gusts to 20-25 mph behind the sea breeze. PWATs near 1.5" and a mid to upper level low in the vicinity of the Bahamas will lead to continued isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon over the far interior (PoPs 20-30%), but the highest chances remain west of Leesburg. Although a vast majority of the forecast area is expected to remain dry, CAMs notoriously struggle to resolve isolated onshore- moving convection, so a few showers cannot be ruled out along the coast this afternoon. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels (DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and cooler 500 mb temperatures (near -10 C) could lead to a few strong storms, with wind gusts near 50 mph and small hail. Regardless, additional showers and storms are once again forecast for the local Atlantic water overnight during the convective maximum, a few of which will likely drift onshore into coastal areas through early morning. High temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90 today, with little relief overnight as lows linger in the 70s for most areas and near 80 along the coast. If trying to beat the heat at the beaches, be aware there is a High Risk for rip currents. Entering the water is strongly discouraged. Wednesday-Tuesday...The ridge remains over the western Atlantic through the period, with its axis stretched generally towards the Carolinas into the weekend. Aloft, the mid to upper level low drifts towards the east coast of Florida through late week, before it weakens and riding develops for the long weekend. Into early next week, models suggest the surface high finally begins to drift southward, though this has very little, if any, effect on the local pattern. Overall, little change is expected to the Florida peninsula's weather pattern over the next seven days. Ridging to the northeast maintains east to southeast flow, which increases to around 15 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Embedded isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will remain possible during the overnight and early morning hours, occasionally drifting onshore, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Then, convection focuses on the interior or western half of the peninsula, with the greatest coverage of showers and storms along the sea breeze collision in the late afternoon and evening. PoPs each day through the work week are generally 20-30%, though most will likely remain dry. Moisture increases from the Atlantic into the weekend, increasing PoPs slightly to 40-50%. Lingering drier air in the mid-levels could support a few strong wind gusts in any more developed storms through Friday, though increasing moisture and warming 500mb temperatures look to reduce that threat into the weekend. Onshore flow keeps high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. However, this will also lead to overnight lows remaining in the 70s, at times even near 80 along the immediate coast. As moisture increases into the weekend, so do heat indices, which creep into the upper 90s to near 100. Humid conditions and little relief overnight will lead to increasing coverage of Moderate HeatRisk. Use caution during the heat of the day, especially this weekend, by staying hydrated and taking breaks from the heat. A High to high-end Moderate Risk for rip currents looks to continue through the period, thanks to onshore flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain east to southeast flow through the weekend. Winds remain around 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 20-25 kts along the coast behind the sea breeze. Embedded isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible each day, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours, drifting onshore into coastal areas. A few stronger cells could produce wind gusts near 30 kts. Seas up to 5 ft offshore this morning diminish, with prevailing 2-4 ft seas into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 143 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Mostly VFR, although brief MVFR CIG reductions could still be observed in vicinity of showers. Rounds of isolated onshore moving showers continue along the coast this morning, reaching as far inland as SFB. These low shower chances should diminish this afternoon after the sea breeze passes, but could linger a little longer at SUA. Cannot rule out an occasional lightning storm. East winds increase 12-15 kts behind the sea breeze again today with locally higher gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 High pressure centered well offshore will help maintain east- southeasterly winds through the week and into the weekend. Sustained winds increase to 10-20 mph behind the sea breeze each afternoon, with gusts around 25 mph, especially along the coast. The greatest chance for rain and storms will be generally south of the Cape in the mornings, transitioning inland with the sea breeze into the afternoon and evenings. However, any convection will be isolated to scattered in nature, so many locations will remain dry. Briefly higher wind gusts embedded in showers or lightning storms will be possible. Ongoing drought and breezy winds will prolong fire sensitive conditions and any lightning strikes could lead to new fire starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 73 87 73 / 20 10 10 10 MCO 89 72 89 72 / 20 0 30 10 MLB 86 77 86 76 / 10 10 20 10 VRB 86 76 87 75 / 10 20 20 10 LEE 90 72 90 72 / 20 0 30 10 SFB 90 72 90 72 / 20 0 20 10 ORL 89 72 89 72 / 20 0 30 10 FPR 86 75 86 74 / 10 20 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wishard AVIATION...Law  516 FXUS63 KMQT 190654 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures today through the rest of the work week. - Up to 35% chance of frost impacting the early portion of the growing season Friday AM. && .UPDATE... Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The going forecast remains on track this morning as the prior day's downward trend in the thunderstorm forecast for the early morning hours this morning proved correct with KMQT radar returns showing a broken line of showers with scattered thunder, mostly clustered in Baraga County and along the state line adjacent to Iron County as of 6Z. Elsewhere, fog is observed ahead of the cold front as moisture- rich easterly and southeasterly flow upslopes from Lake Michigan and upslopes towards the higher terrain of the west half. As the front mixes the boundary layer and winds shift to be out of the northwest, some low stratus and slight chances (mainly 15-30%) of lingering showers is forecast but fog is not expected to persist, so the Dense Fog Advisories will be allowed to gradually expire from west to east as originally intended. Otherwise, the main impactful weather will be the remnant gusty conditions and choppy waters creating conditions hazardous to small craft today and the potential for frost for the morning of the 22nd with the resumption of frost/freeze headlines as agricultural growing season approaches. Despite high pressure dominating the local weather pattern for the work week, cold advection in the wake of the passing trough results in 850mb temperatures being in the 25th percentile or lower relative to the climatology of 850mb temps for this time of year, translating to surface temperatures that are up to 5-10 degrees below normal. The LREF shows up to 35% chances of Friday morning's low falling to 36 or lower, with the NBM deterministic low around that temperature for much of the interior UP. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Amended at 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Quiet and benign weather follows the ongoing passage of a cold front for most of the remainder of the week. Isolated to scattered showers linger into today, however instability will likely be elevated and only briefly uncapped in the east/south-central for a few hours at best. Thunder is in the forecast, but strong to severe storms are not expected. Highs in the east half today will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s, lower in the northwestern UP where mid 40s to mid 50s are expected. From there, the low departs to the northeast and high pressure over the Plains replaces it. This maintains over the Great Lakes through most of the work week yielding dry weather until the weekend. Lingering troughing aloft keeps colder northwest flow through Wednesday, resulting in temps between 5-15 degrees below normal; highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s. A warming pattern is then expected toward next weekend as mid level ridging slowly builds over the southeast and extends up into the Great Lakes. Another trough over the Rockies on Friday looks to move toward the Upper Great Lakes during the weekend, bringing back precip to the UP. Instability with this is lacking, so impactful strong to severe storms are not anticipated. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The passage of a cold front tonight and lingering low level moisture is causing IFR/LIFR conditions at all sites tonight. Some LLWS is forecast at CMX this morning and while it is possible around SAW/IWD, confidence on the timing and intensity is too low to include in this TAF issuance. In the wake of the front, gradual improvement is expected throughout the day,though there is some spread in the models as to the timing of such an improvement. Winds will rapidly shift with the front before becoming NWerly behind the front. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Amended at 254 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A low pressure moves northeast over Upper Michigan and Lake Superior today. This tightens the pressure gradient and increases northeast winds over the west and north- central portions of the lake to 20-30 kts early this morning. As the low moves overhead, winds become northwest and strongest winds shift from the west half to the east as colder air moves in. Probabilities of gales to 35 kts are 25% or less, highest in the east this afternoon. Showers and storms are expected with this system into this morning, however severe storms are no longer expected. This rainfall will prolong fog over the east into this morning. High pressure returns winds to 20 kts or less by Wednesday afternoon, winds likely maintain light into the weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ006. Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ007-014-085. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ013. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ244- 264>266. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LSZ245>251. Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221- 248-250. && $$ UPDATE...GS DISCUSSION...77/GS AVIATION...GS MARINE...77/GS  753 FXUS62 KCAE 190659 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 259 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain chances for late this week and this weekend continue and should generally favor the western and northern Midlands. Aviation discussion updated for 06Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. - 2. Rain chances increase late week onward, but drought conditions to persist. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. Amplified east coast ridging and offshore surface high pressure this week lead to high confidence in above normal temperatures through the end of this week. Mid-May normals generally fall in the mid-80s, while blended guidance through Thursday yields highs in the low to mid 90s with small (less than 3 degree F) interquartile ranges. Temperatures may decrease just slightly into the upper 80s Friday into this weekend with a bit more moisture around, but should still remain above climatology. This is mainly in response to the upper ridge translating slightly eastward and better rain chances across the area, but more on that in Key Message #2. It should be noted that early season heat can contribute to an increased risk of heat- related illness, and much of the area will be in a Moderate Heat Risk through Thursday, with the threat decreasing Friday into the weekend. Key Message 2: Rain chances increase late week onward, but drought conditions to persist. Overall deterministic and ensemble guidance keep the Rex block in place off the east coast this week, but a slight shift eastward is expected in the second half of the forecast period. This should lead to increasing moisture over the Southeast from Thursday through Memorial Day as southwest flow strengthens aloft. Coupled with persistent low level southeast flow around the Bermuda high, PWAT values rise to just above normal, with GEFS mean values of 125-150%. The result should be increased chances for daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, particularly given the expected strong heating and above normal temperatures previously mentioned. Additionally, some enhancement may occur across the northern and western portions of the forecast area closer to where the best moisture transport is, and where there is a higher likelihood of a few shortwaves moving through the flow. We're still a bit too far out to be talking about specific rainfall amounts, but the GEFS 50th percentile QPF through Saturday night ranges from only a few hundredths across the southeast Midlands to just under 0.75" in the western and northern Midlands with a gradient in between. As such, it appears that any rain we do get at least through Saturday will not have much impact on our ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Brief restrictions possible near sunrise, especially at OGB and AGS but otherwise mostly VFR. VFR conditions in place at all terminals currently with clear skies and generally light and variable winds. The overall synoptic pattern remains similar to yesterday with high pressure offshore and a relatively weak southerly to southeasterly low level jet. This should support relatively similar conditions early this morning to yesterday morning. While widespread restrictions are unlikely and not supported by guidance, brief restrictions remain possible at all terminals, although confidence is the highest at fog-prone AGS and OGB which also experienced restrictions yesterday morning. Any low clouds or fog will mix out relatively soon after sunrise with cumulus clouds developing around 5kft and SSE winds around 5 to 10 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture may result in brief restrictions at the terminals due to low clouds and/or fog each day this week. Rain chances increase towards the end of the week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EC AVIATION...96  776 FXUS63 KIWX 190659 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 259 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms are possible today between 3-11 PM EDT. - Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main threats. Low but non-zero risk for hail and an isolated tornado. - Warm and humid again today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. - Cooler with seasonable temperatures and dry midweek. Highs only in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. - Next chance for rain and a few storms arrive Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite and radar imagery currently shows a line of strong to severe thunderstorms entering Illinois. This activity is expected to weaken as it moves east, but a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out around daybreak (15-20% chances) in our forecast area. Ahead of an approaching cold front, strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Our area will be well into the warm sector today; Dewpoints will increase to around 70 degrees in response to a strong southwest LLJ ramping up throughout the day. Moisture combines with daytime heating (highs in the mid to upper 80s) to support SBCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. Destabilization should occur this afternoon, with chances for strong to severe storms highest between 3-11 PM EDT today. The greatest risk area will be along and south of US 24, where a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place. SPC actually pulled the Slight Risk from our northwest half of the forecast area, which I agree with as the US 24 corridor will have ample time to heat up and destabilize this afternoon before the cold front arrives. Shear is still expected to be weak given a fairly unidirectional vertical wind profile, but it will be better than the past few days at 20 to 30 kts. With weaker shear, the favored storm mode will be multicell clusters or line segments. Given DCAPE of around 1000 J/kg this afternoon and evening and steep low level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, damaging winds will be the main threat today. In addition, forecast soundings do show some veering between 0-1km, low level SRH up to 200 m2/s2, and LCLs below 1000m, so an isolated tornado is possible today. This potential is greatest in NW Ohio, which will have the longest time to heat up and destabilize today as the cold front takes its time moving in from west to east. With PWATs around 1.25-1.5", even if storm clusters are not severe, they will likely be efficient with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr. It will be noticeably drier with much more seasonable conditions midweek behind the cold front. High pressure builds in on Wednesday and Thursday across the Great Lakes region. Highs will be in the 60s and it will feel much cooler than the previous stretch of warm and humid days. Next chance for rain and a few storms arrive Friday as a low pressure system lifts into the Ohio River Valley. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 70s. Summer-like temperatures in the 80s return by late in the weekend into early next week with additional daily periodic chances for rain/storms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 106 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR conditions will continue through midday. Winds have diminished to around 10 kts for now, but will quickly ramp up after sunrise and through the morning hours. Breezy southwesterly winds will gust as high as 30 kts today, even outside of any showers or storms. An approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and storms today, but confidence is low on exactly where. The strongest storms may end up east of IN-15 towards KFWA, but have maintained a PROB30 at KSBN for 17-20Z and a few hours later at KFWA from 19-22Z. MVFR ceilingsand visibilities will be possible within any storms. The main threats today will be heavy rain and damaging wind gusts up to 50kts. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Fisher  764 FXUS64 KSJT 190659 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 159 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening... Cold front just north of Childress at 130 AM expected to move along I-20 mid morning around 9 AM and then slow down as it moves south along a San Angelo to Brownwood line 3-4 PM. While isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this morning in the Big Country, a larger complex of strong to severe storms is expected to develop in the Concho Valley to Brownwood in maximum heating this afternoon. Complex then moves south and east into the I-10 corridor and NW Hill country this evening. With CAPES of 4000 J/kg and 0-6KM bulk shears of 30 to 35 KTS, supercells with very large hail over 2 inches possible. The complex of storms should move south of West Central by midnight, ending most of the severe weather threat. Precipital water values around 1.5 inches indicate efficent rainfall producers, and localized flooding possible, especially in urban areas. .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By the time Wednesday night rolls around, another low pressure trough strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and continues moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday night. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding through Wednesday night. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this trough moves east for the later half of the work Week. A couple of embedded disturbances within the flow are also being indicated as well, which offers support for multiple rounds of rain. In the meantime, high rain chances (70%) are in place for Thursday. Additional rounds of thunderstorms remain a possibility through at least Friday. We will have to monitor closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential through the end of this week. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR stratus along the I-10 corridor will advect back north across the terminals overnight. Strong south winds with gusts up to 30 KTS at KABI will weaken toward morning. A cold front will move through KABI mid morning, KSJT and KBBD mid afternoon, and KJCT and KSOA in the evening, with scattered showers and thunderstorm along and behind it. There is the potential for very strong winds of 35KTS or more and large hail along and behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 88 62 77 64 / 80 40 30 90 San Angelo 92 63 79 63 / 80 60 50 90 Junction 91 65 83 64 / 50 80 60 90 Brownwood 89 64 80 64 / 80 60 40 80 Sweetwater 87 61 77 63 / 60 40 40 90 Ozona 90 64 81 63 / 40 60 50 90 Brady 8964 79 64 / 70 80 50 90 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...04