914 FXUS61 KAKQ 190701 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 301 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Discussion and key messages. SPC continues to outlook northern half of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Wednesday evening. Due to slower frontal timing, rain chances were lowered Wednesday night for Hampton Roads and northeast NC. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above-normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. 2) Rain chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the north, and from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning farther south. 3) After a cooler end to the work week, warmer conditions return for the Memorial Day weekend. However, unsettled conditions persist, with rain chances continuing each day through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above-normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture will maintain summer-like heat through midweek. Temperatures today will be similar to those of yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 90s, though slightly cooler along the immediate coast. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong mixing and ongoing drought conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, falling back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temperatures, maintaining dry conditions into Wednesday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the north, and from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning farther south. By Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area and showers and storms are expected to develop, focusing along the pre-frontal trough to our northwest. Model trends continue to slow the arrival of the cold front, lagging into later Wednesday evening across the north, and Thursday morning south of US-460 into NE NC. 00z CAMs continue to show sparse convection only reaching northern and western portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro through Wednesday evening. SPC has maintained the northwestern half of the area, including the RIC metro, in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for now, with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. The risk of severe storms looks marginal locally, with the best forcing and instability confined just to our N/NW. The concern remains that storms may dissipate before reaching the area, but they remain possible nonetheless, with the best chance north of RIC to the VA Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Farther south, given the previously referenced concerns, have lowered PoPs into slight to low-end chance range for south-central and southeast VA into northeast NC for Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Better chances over these areas hold off into Thursday afternoon and evening, albeit with a lesser severe risk due to weaker instability and available bulk shear. KEY MESSAGE 3...After a cooler end to the work week, warmer conditions return for the Memorial Day weekend. However, unsettled conditions persist, with rain chances continuing each day through early next week. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada late Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen the SE ridge, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Meanwhile, the cold front pushes south of the area late Thursday and Friday. Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values allow rain chances to ramp upquickly late Thursday and Thursday night. leaving an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup for Friday, with highs in the 60s to 70s forecast on Friday. The parent high to the north is progressive, which should allow the wedge airmass to erode relatively quickly on Saturday. Broad SW flow should push the front back across our area Saturday as a warm front, with temperatures quickly returning above normal over the holiday weekend, though not quite as warm as what we are currently experiencing. Rain chances will be more convective/diurnally-driven over the weekend, with best chances likely in the afternoon and early evening each day. Thus, while some welcome rainfall is likely for much of the area, the holiday weekend is by no means shaping up to be a washout. Unfortunately, rainfall totals for the week do not look like the drought-busting rain we need. Multi-model ensemble guidance shows a mean of only 0.50-1.00" for the week. Note that with recent systems, the ensembles were quite bullish with precipitation totals and widely over-estimated multiple days out. Gradual warming is expected heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions across area terminals look to persist through the 06z TAF period. 1024+mb surface high pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast, with winds SSW 7-10 kt. Winds look to nudge up to 10-15kt by late this morning into the aftn, with occasional gusts to near 20kt during the aftn, and potentially a directional shift to SSE closer to the coast later in the aftn sea breeze. Outlook: VFR conditions expected to continue tonight and Wednesday as high pressure remains in control. S/SW winds likely gust to 15-20 kt once again Wednesday aftn. The next chance of rain and possible degraded flight conditions arrive with a cold front dropping across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub-VFR CIGs then persist in a weak cool air wedge airmass Thu night and Friday. Gradually improving conditions are then expected late Friday and Saturday as the front returns back north as a warm front. While predominate VFR conditions likely return for the holiday weekend, flight restrictions will remain possible in scattered showers and isolated storms both Saturday and Sunday, along with potential VSBY restrictions in early morning ground fog. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. - A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions. High pressure remains centered near Bermuda this morning, extending across the Southeast. This pattern is typical of the summertime Bermuda High configuration and will continue today and into tomorrow. Current marine wind observation sites are measuring southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. This stagnant pattern will allow winds to remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late-afternoon nearshore seabreeze through Wednesday. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish some overnight. This pattern will finally start to break down as a cold front approaches the area late Wednesday into Thursday. This cold front is currently forecast to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief SCA conditions are possible (mainly in the Bay) and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend. With the continuity of guidance showing the front stalling over the area, this outcome is looking more likely, though SCA conditions will still remain marginal. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) today, with a low risk elsewhere. The moderate rip current risk likely continues for the northern beaches into Wednesday. With increasing winds and seas associated with a frontal passage on Thursday, all beaches will see a moderate rip current risk. && .CLIMATE... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... Richmond set a new record high Monday of 96 degrees. This broke the previous record of 95 degrees set in 1911. Another day of near-record to record-breaking heat is expected today, with record high minimum temperatures also possible. Record High Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High/Year High/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM AVIATION...AJZ/MAM MARINE...AJB/NB CLIMATE...MAM  962 FXUS61 KBUF 190701 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 301 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Summer-like heat continues today. 2) Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive very late today into tonight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe limits (Slight Risk for Severe Weather continues for late today and tonight). 3) Drier, but much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front for the middle and later half of the work week, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Summer-like heat continues today. Mid and upper level heights will start to fall today as the mid and upper level ridge axis slides east of the area. NBM max temperature output continues to be too warm. Looking at Monday's high temperatures, NBM forecast highs averaged 3-5 degrees F too warm. NBM again looks too warm today. In fact, NBM high temperature output is right near the top of the chart, nearing the 90th percentile amongst all other guidance. With that in mind and in coordination with surrounding offices as has been done over the past several days, daytime highs were lowered a couple to few degrees again today. Highs are expected to top out mainly in the mid and upper 80s, with a run at 90 again for those traditionally warmer locations, while it will remain a bit cooler along and closer to the lakeshores. Winds will continue to ramp up through the day with gusts 20-30 mph areawide this afternoon and up to 35 mph, or even a few gusts to 40 mph northeast of Lake Erie, especially a bit further from the lake away from the cool dome over and closer to the lakeshore. A few scattered showers and storms will be possible during the peak heating hours this afternoon, and would mainly be confined to areas along and inland of any lake breeze circulations. Some gusty winds are possible with a stronger storm or two, however overall severe potential through this afternoon remains low. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive very late today into tonight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe limits (Slight Risk for Severe Weather continues for late today and tonight). Confidence for a few strong to severe storms continues to moderate for late today through the early overnight hours just ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. CAPE values of 1000- 2000 J/kg (especially earlier in the evening) with 25-35 knots of 0- 6km shear will foster the potential for damaging wind gusts, which will be the greatest threat. Local BUFKIT soundings continue to advertise "fat" CAPE profiles, which supports stronger updraft potential, indicating the possibility for large hail as well. Finally, 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m^2/s^2 (300-400 m^2/s^2 far western NY) support the chance for an isolated tornado or two. SPC has all of western and northcentral NY outlined in a Slight Risk for scattered severe storms during this period. The best window for severe storms will be 6-7 PM this evening through 1-2 AM tonight. With that timing comes the gradual loss of diurnal heating heading through the evening. This leads to some uncertainty as to whether or not the line can maintain its' intensity, especially by later in the evening. Current thinking is the line will maintain intensity as it nears or enters far western NY early this evening, then gradually weakens as it heads further east into our area as heating wanes. KEY MESSAGE 3...Drier, but much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front for the middle and later half of the work week, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend.A large area of high pressure will build into our region in the wake of the cold frontal passage, bringing a mainly dry, but much cooler airmass back in across the area for the middle and later half of the week. Coolest day will be Thursday, with many locations not getting out of the 50s. Expect a slow rebound in temperatures into the holiday weekend with mainly 60s across the area, however an area of low pressure approaching from the southwest may bring unsettled weather back into our region for at least a portion of this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For the 06Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found, and these conditions will be predominate through the TAF cycle. There will be a few exceptions. A consistent flow of 35 to 45 knots off the deck will bring limited LLWS concerns, as well as gusty winds later this morning through the afternoon, especially northeast of the Lakes where gusts may reach 30 to 35 knots. With a wealth of instability, there may be an inland lake breeze shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. The main concern during this TAF period will come in the final six hours. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into far western NY around 00Z this evening ahead of a strong cold front. A few storms will have the potential to produce strong winds and large hail. Expect localized LIFR/IFR flight reductions within any of the stronger storms. Widespread IFR/MVFR is then expected for the second half of tonight along and just behind the cold front. Outlook... Wednesday...Improving to VFR. Thursday through Friday...VFR. Saturday...Potential for sub-VFR with as a low pressure system brings rain to the region. && .MARINE... Pressure gradient between exiting high pressure and ahead of an approaching cold front will continue to gradually tighten through today. Winds will increase further this afternoon ahead of the aforementioned cold front, supporting winds and waves worthy of Small Craft Advisory criteria on the western end of Lake Ontario by this afternoon, before spreading toward the eastern end of Lake Ontario late tonight through Wednesday with the passage of the cold front. Winds on Lake Erie will be somewhat lighter, but still strong enough to produce a moderate chop today through Wednesday. Additionally, just ahead of the cold frontal passage this evening into tonight, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass across the lakes producing locally higher winds and waves, with a possibility of large hail. Winds will then relax as high pressure returns Wednesday night and Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JM MARINE...EAJ/JM  797 FXUS65 KFGZ 190700 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1200 AM MST Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are in store for much of the week, along with typical afternoon breezes. && .DISCUSSION...Quasi-zonal flow largely remains in control through much of this week. As a result, gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected through at least at least Saturday. Winds look to generally remain light, however weak troughing will keep some typical spring-time afternoon breezes (20-30 mph) over the higher terrain. A weak low looks to eject off the Pacific into the southwest early next week. Ensemble guidance continues to signal towards an increase in PWATs from the resulting increase in moisture advection into Arizona. As of now, a few isolated afternoon showers and possibly thunderstorms look probable over the White Mountains this weekend, then potentially spreading to more of the higher terrain on Monday. Surface moisture at this point still looks fairly minimal, so much of the activity at this time looks to be high-based in nature. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 19/06Z through Wednesday 20/06Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Becoming S-SW 5-15 kts, gusts 20kts after 15-18Z, light and variable again after 03Z. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 20/06Z through Friday 22/06Z...VFR conditions, no precipitation expected. Winds SW-W 5-15kts, gusts 20-25kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Gradually turning warmer. Winds west/southwest 10-15 mph, with occasional afternoon gusts of 20-30 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH 10-20% today, falling to 5- 15% on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday....Continued dry conditions with warming temperatures. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 5-15%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff  852 FXUS66 KEKA 190700 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1200 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Northerly winds have diminished considerably, but will be breezy each afternoon. Clear and dry conditions will remain through the week with a warming trend through Thursday. Temperatures will trend lower this weekend weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Northerly winds are much lighter, but will be breezy in the afternoons. -Generally clear skies and dry conditions, even along shore, through the week. -Conditions will warm through Thursday with highs in the interior peaking near 90. && .DISCUSSION...Consistently strong northerly winds have diminished early this week for Northwest California as the pressure gradient eases. Winds will die down over night and then become generally breezy in the afternoons throughout this week. Overnight lows will be on the chilly side again tonight, but will begin moderating this week with building high pressure. Some areas of localized frost will be possible in the Hayfork and Larabee Valley this morning. Conditions will remain very dry with warming temperatures through the week. Highs will most likely top out around 90 for the interior on Thursday. This will constitute only a minor HeatRisk for this time of year. Hotter temperatures will help reform a marine inversion and will increase chances for coastal stratus and fog this week && .AVIATION...Northerly winds have, for the most part, moved offshore, except at Point Saint George and Cape Mendocino where winds will remain elevated overnight. Gusts up to 20 knots can be expected around KCEC very early this morning before dying down before sunrise. Other terminals in Northwest California will experience generally calm winds before sunrise. This pattern of diminished winds overnight and higher winds during the afternoon will continue through the work week. Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated with a slight probability of coastal stratus forming around Humboldt Bay early this morning. Throughout this week, coastal stratus is likely to form each night and burn off after sunrise as high pressure continues for the region. /JLW && .MARINE...The pressure gradient relaxes slightly and the strongest winds move farther off the coast as the high pressure builds in. However, a large area of gale force gusts around 34-45 kts are expected across all zones, with the strongest winds downwind of Cape Mendocino. Steep to very steep, hazardous seas will continue with the elevated winds. Conditions will remain hazardous across the waters for much of the work week with strong to gale force northerly gusts and steep to very steep seas. Gale force winds and very steep seas are forecast to persists across the outer waters through Friday. /ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450-455. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png  058 FXUS61 KRLX 190703 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 303 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Little to no changes were made with the Day 1/Day 2 severe weather outlooks in our forecast area, still carrying Marginal Risks for both days amid the passing cold front. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Another unseasonably hot day on tap today before relief arrives for midweek and beyond. Record high temperatures could once again be challenged today. 2) A cold frontal passage late tonight into Wednesday will serve up unsettled weather through the Memorial Day weekend. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms track ahead of the boundary late tonight and once again Wednesday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure centered off the Carolina coast will continue to encourage strong onshore flow into the forecast area today and once again serve up unseasonably hot temperatures this afternoon. Several of our climate sites observed record breaking high temperatures as a result of this pattern set up yesterday, and could once again be challenged today as daytime highs soar into the low 90s across the lowlands and 80s along the higher terrain. A cold front, spoken about in greater detail below in Key Message 2, will bring a relief from this early season warm spell, returning temperatures closer to their seasonable norm for the end of the work week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2... An active weather pattern looms with the arrival of a cold front late tonight. Until then, one more mostly dry day is on tap for the area, with the exception of some diurnally driven showers and storms that attempt to sprout within afternoon cumulus fields around the Ohio River Valley. The front is then progged to pivot in from the west starting late tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest hi-res simulated reflectivity depicts a line of showers and storms aligned along the boundary forming during peak heating hours this afternoon through Ohio and Indiana and promoting strong to severe thunderstorms through the course of the afternoon and evening. As this line approaches the western flank of our forecast area after sunset, this sharp line of convection will begin to shear apart and fade due to the loss of daytime heating. SPC continues to paint a Marginal Risk for severe weather through our southeast Ohio Counties before trailing off into a general risk for the rest of the area overnight tonight. Showers and embedded thunderstorms prevail overnight into Wednesday morning as the front makes slow eastward progress. For Wednesday, the front remains sluggish in its journey overhead, and will once again serve up afternoon thunderstorm potential for areas out ahead of the boundary. With abundant cloud coverage now in place, instability will be harder to come by for the bulk of our forecast area, and foresee most of the severe potential then shifting east of the Appalachian mountains. Despite a complete frontal passage progged for Wednesday night into Thursday, the boundary will remain in close proximity to the area as a result of the strong offshore surface high preventing forward progress eastward. In response, the front is likely to stall just to our south and eventually retreat northward by Saturday. This will maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in the Central Appalachians through the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Dry antecedent ground conditions should help keep flooding concerns at bay, but low lying areas and known trouble spots could begin to see localized issues by the end of the weekend depending upon radar trends and where the heaviest bands of rain sets up amid the stagnant frontal boundary. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions remain in place this morning amid a blanket of upper level clouds. While this trend is expected to hold through the day, am a bit skeptical of localized fog not developing around CRW Tuesday morning due to late night convection that passed over the airfield and produced light rain. This could certainly prime the area for fog as a result, and therefore a tempo group was introduced from 09z to 12z for this potential. Another mostly quiet, albeit unseasonably hot, weather day is expected on Tuesday before a cold front approaches late in the evening. Some isolated storms could form in the Ohio River Valley within afternoon cumulus development, but widespread restrictions will arrive just after the conclusion of the valid TAF period with showers and storms riding in along the frontal boundary for Wednesday morning. Calm or very light southerly flow is expected tonight, with southwest flow during the day on Tuesday. Breezes of 15-25 kts are expected at times from late morning onward, especially central/north. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Local restrictions due to fog at CRW may vary this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/19/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Patchy IFR is possible in convection Wednesday through the weekend. && .Climate... Several record high temperatures were set or tied on Monday. Observed / Prior Records ---------------------------------- CRW | 93 (Record) / 92 (1962) | HTS | 92 (Tied) / 92 (1906) | BKW | 88 (Record) / 87 (1962) | EKN | 90 (Record) / 89 (1911) | ---------------------------------- Record high temperatures could also be challenged on Tuesday. Forecast / Record High Temperatures --------------------- Tue, 5/19 | --------------------- CRW | 91 / 95 (1931) | HTS | 90 / 92 (1996) | CKB | 89 / 90 (1959) | PKB | 90 / 90 (1964) | BKW | 85 / 89 (1996) | EKN | 87 / 93 (1996) | --------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05 CLIMATE...05/GW  038 FXUS63 KJKL 190702 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 302 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast later today and tonight, with active weather expected to continue through the upcoming holiday weekend. - The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to bring widespread rainfall that is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 Upper ridging will gradually get nudged southeast through Wednesday as a cold front reaches the area and begins to stall near or over the area Wednesday afternoon. This stalling, or at least slowing down, of the cold front occurs as the upper flow becomes parallel to the cold front orientation. PoPs gradually increase from the west through Wednesday as the front approaches. Most if not all of the forecast area will stay dry today with the ridging trying to hold tough to the east and southeast while the front slowly makes progress, with highest chances at showers or a thunderstorm in the Bluegrass region. Chances for rain increase into the evening and overnight as mid- level heights begin to gradually fall, as shortwaves move up the Ohio River Valley, mostly but not completely skirting Eastern Kentucky. If a storm, or storms, were to reach the forecast area late this afternoon into this evening, there is sufficient shear and possibly instability to support an isolated severe storm in the Bluegrass region. The front reaches the CWA from the northwest late Wednesday afternoon, with a mid-level speed max of 35 to 45 kts developing during the day just north of the area possibly providing enough shear for an isolated strong to severe storm in the afternoon should sufficient instability exists, which looks likely at this time. The SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook expands the Marginal Risk into far eastern parts of the forecast area, but future outlooks may extend that further into the forecast area based on the forecast evolution and placement of this mid-level speed max. Highs will again threaten records in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, but temperatures will begin to trend lower as humidity and rain chances increase from the west and northwest for Wednesday, with current forecasts suggesting lower to mid 80s across the area, warmest in the Upper Big Sandy Basin where rain is likely to hold off the longest into the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 If the long term period could be summarized with just one word, it would be wet. The period will open Wednesday night with broad ridging over the southeastern US and troughing over the Hudson Bay. This will leave Kentucky in a regime of generally weak southwesterly flow aloft. With broad ridging over the southeastern CONUS, the surface cold front that passed through during the day on Wednesday will struggle to continue it's forward momentum through into the Mid- Atlantic coastal states. Instead, it's currently poised to stall over the periphery of the ridge (TN area to the Mid-Atlantic) Wednesday night and Thursday, before lifting into Kentucky again as a warm front on Friday. This pattern will bring multiple rounds of rain to the forecast area. As such, WPC has introduced multiple Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for the forecast area; one for our entire area Wednesday and Wednesday night (though expect most of the rain to fall during the day Wednesday in the short term portion of the forecast), another for the Lake Cumberlandarea on Thursday, and a third for our entire forecast area again on Friday. QPF does not look overly impressive on any given day; LREF guidance shows the chance of exceeding 0.5 of rain on any given day is low to moderate (maxing out at around 50% on Wednesday). However, this does not account for enhanced rain rates in any thunderstorms that do develop. If storms track over the same area for multiple days in a row, isolated instances of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. This is especially true closer to the KY/TN border, which will feel the greatest impacts of the stalling front. However, it should also be mentioned that the Lake Cumberland Region is in a moderate to severe drought - so any higher rain amounts that fall here will likely be beneficial. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period. Following the frontal passage, CAA via postfrontal winds will keep maxTs generally below normal, with a defined thermal gradient over our forecast area as the front stalls. Currently, the NBM is outputting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for the north and upper 70s for the southern CWA. The previous forecast package noted that the NBM had 80s in the southern CWA, which appeared to be an outlier compared to other guidance given the frontal passage, and had to be manually lowered - so it's good to see the latest NBM has corrected this issue. After the front lifts northward again on Friday, flow will become more southerly across much of eastern KY, and temperatures will begin another warming trend accordingly. The NBM's highs on in the upper 70s and low 80s may be slightly overdone given that rain is likely going into Friday afternoon (80-90% chance), but will see how this continues to trend as we move forward in time. Unfortunately (for outdoor activities) or fortunately (for drought relief), this weekend also looks to be quite wet. The boundary will remain planted north of the CWA across the Ohio Valley, keeping much of Kentucky in the warm sector with good moisture advection. This will pair with a slow-moving upper level trough over the central CONUS (strengthening SW flow into the Commonwealth), in addition to potential embedded impulses moving across. The combination will result in rain chances from Saturday through Monday, peaking during the afternoon when heating/mixing/instability will be at it's max. Temperatures during this 3-day period will be fairly steady-state, if not increasing slightly each day as southerly flow continues. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, while overnight low will be in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026 VFR conditions under times of high clouds will prevail through the period. The one caveat will be some valley fog between 04Z and 13Z with local MVFR and IFR reductions that are not expected to affect any of the TAF sites. Look for some cumulus to again develop Tuesday afternoon between 4 and 6 kft agl. A PROB30 group has been added for the end of the TAF period at KIOB to account for the low potential for shower and thunderstorm activity which will be approaching the area toward the end of the TAF period Tuesday night. Light and variable winds will be the rule for the remainder of the overnight period, with southwesterly LLWS impacting western and northern TAF sites between 07z and ~13z. Winds will increase from the south to southwest at 5 to 12 kts again with some gusts up to 20 kts for Tuesday afternoon. These winds will diminish near sunset, but more exposed sites will keep a light southwest wind around 5 kts or so through the end of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...FAGAN/JMW AVIATION...CMC  166 FXUS61 KAKQ 190705 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 305 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Discussion and key messages. SPC continues to outlook northern half of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Wednesday evening. Due to slower frontal timing, rain chances were lowered Wednesday night for Hampton Roads and northeast NC. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above-normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. 2) Rain chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the north, and from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning farther south. 3) After a cooler end to the work week, warmer conditions return for the Memorial Day weekend. However, unsettled conditions persist, with rain chances continuing each day through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above-normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture will maintain summer-like heat through midweek. Temperatures today will be similar to those of yesterday, with highs in the low to mid 90s, though slightly cooler along the immediate coast. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week as compressional heating maximizes ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong mixing and ongoing drought conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, falling back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temperatures, maintaining dry conditions into Wednesday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the north, and from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning farther south. By Wednesday afternoon, a cold front will approach the area and showers and storms are expected to develop, focusing along the pre-frontal trough to our northwest. Model trends continue to slow the arrival of the cold front, lagging into later Wednesday evening across the north, and Thursday morning south of US-460 into NE NC. 00z CAMs continue to show sparse convection only reaching northern and western portions of the area, likely staying out of the RIC metro through Wednesday evening. SPC has maintained the northwestern half of the area, including the RIC metro, in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for now, with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. The risk of severe storms looks marginal locally, with the best forcing and instability confined just to our N/NW. The concern remains that storms may dissipate before reaching the area, but they remain possible nonetheless, with the best chance north of RIC to the VA Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore. Farther south, given the previously referenced concerns, have lowered PoPs into slight to low-end chance range for south-central and southeast VA into northeast NC for Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Better chances over these areas hold off into Thursday afternoon and evening, albeit with a lesser severe risk due to weaker instability and available bulk shear. KEY MESSAGE 3...After a cooler end to the work week, warmer conditions return for the Memorial Day weekend. However, unsettled conditions persist, with rain chances continuing each day through early next week. A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada late Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen the SE ridge, while allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. Meanwhile, the cold front pushes south of the area late Thursday and Friday. Increasing overrunning moisture and quickly rising PW values allow rain chances to ramp upquickly late Thursday and Thursday night, leaving an emerging cool air/CAD wedge setup for Friday, with highs in the 60s to 70s forecast. The parent high to the north is progressive, which should allow the wedge airmass to erode relatively quickly on Saturday. Broad SW flow should push the front back across our area Saturday as a warm front, with temperatures quickly returning above normal over the holiday weekend, though not quite as warm as what we are currently experiencing. Rain chances will be more convective/diurnally-driven over the weekend, with best chances likely in the afternoon and early evening each day. Thus, while some welcome rainfall is likely for much of the area, the holiday weekend is by no means shaping up to be a washout. Unfortunately, rainfall totals for the week do not look like the drought-busting rain we need. Multi-model ensemble guidance shows a mean of only 0.50-1.00" for the week. Note that with recent systems, the ensembles were quite bullish with precipitation totals and widely over-estimated multiple days out. Gradual warming is expected heading into early next week as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions across area terminals look to persist through the 06z TAF period. 1024+mb surface high pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast, with winds SSW 7-10 kt. Winds look to nudge up to 10-15kt by late this morning into the aftn, with occasional gusts to near 20kt during the aftn, and potentially a directional shift to SSE closer to the coast later in the aftn sea breeze. Outlook: VFR conditions expected to continue tonight and Wednesday as high pressure remains in control. S/SW winds likely gust to 15-20 kt once again Wednesday aftn. The next chance of rain and possible degraded flight conditions arrive with a cold front dropping across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Sub-VFR CIGs then persist in a weak cool air wedge airmass Thu night and Friday. Gradually improving conditions are then expected late Friday and Saturday as the front returns back north as a warm front. While predominate VFR conditions likely return for the holiday weekend, flight restrictions will remain possible in scattered showers and isolated storms both Saturday and Sunday, along with potential VSBY restrictions in early morning ground fog. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds. - A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions. High pressure remains centered near Bermuda this morning, extending across the Southeast. This pattern is typical of the summertime Bermuda High configuration and will continue today and into tomorrow. Current marine wind observation sites are measuring southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts. This stagnant pattern will allow winds to remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late-afternoon nearshore seabreeze through Wednesday. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish some overnight. This pattern will finally start to break down as a cold front approaches the area late Wednesday into Thursday. This cold front is currently forecast to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief SCA conditions are possible (mainly in the Bay) and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend. With the continuity of guidance showing the front stalling over the area, this outcome is looking more likely, though SCA conditions will still remain marginal. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches (including Ocean City, MD) today, with a low risk elsewhere. The moderate rip current risk likely continues for the northern beaches into Wednesday. With increasing winds and seas associated with a frontal passage on Thursday, all beaches will see a moderate rip current risk. && .CLIMATE... As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... Richmond set a new record high Monday of 96 degrees. This broke the previous record of 95 degrees set in 1911. Another day of near-record to record-breaking heat is expected today, with record high minimum temperatures also possible. Record High Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High/Year High/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 97 (1962) 97 (2022) Norfolk 96 (1880) 98 (1996) Salisbury 97 (2011) 98 (1911) Eliz. City 95 (1996) 98 (1996) Record High Min Temps for 5/19 - 5/20 Record Record High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- Richmond 71 (1997) 71 (2018) Norfolk 72 (2017) 73 (1996) Salisbury 70 (1929) 70 (2018) Eliz. City 72 (2018) 73 (2018) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM AVIATION...AJZ/MAM MARINE...AJB/NB CLIMATE...MAM  159 FXUS65 KMSO 190705 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 105 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and isolated thunderstorms through Wednesday, mainly across northwest Montana and over the Continental Divide. - Return to summer-like conditions as moderating temperatures are expected late week into next weekend. After a cold start this morning, temperatures moderate through Saturday. A few showers or isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon in northwest MT and along the Continental Divide. A few showers on Monday were able to produce 0.10 to 0.15 inches and with similar precipitable waters today, similar results are expected. Most showers however will be characterized as very light. Wednesday the models are attempting to close off a low pressure system over eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan. The results for us still seem up in the air, however there are hints of an upper level cold front pushing southwest across western MT. If this was to happen, disorganized shower activity may become organized along that boundary as it moves southwest. Our current forecast keeps the favored area for precipitation from the Flathead and Mission Valleys and eastward along the Continental Divide. Missoula south through the Bitterroot and I-90 west of Missoula will see lighter precipitation but potentially an isolated thunderstorm. Thunderstorm activity will be scattered through northwest MT and along the Continental Divide. Graupel, small hail, and gusty outflows 25-35 mph will be possible. Of note, the core of the cold trough will be well north and east of the Northern Rockies and snow levels will be 6500 feet and higher. Beyond warming, the longer term does not favor precipitation until potentially Sunday. Model cluster analysis is split between fading or developing high pressure 56% and a trough with positional and timing differences 44%, more to come. && .AVIATION...Once again northwest Montana and along the Continental Divide will see isolated showers and thunderstorms. Brief lowering of visibility and a few strikes of lightning will be possible. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT Tuesday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Flathead/Mission Valleys...Lower Clark Fork Region...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys. ID...Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ Tuesday for Eastern Lemhi County...Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains. Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Orofino/Grangeville Region. && $$  247 FXUS65 KABQ 190706 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 106 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 - The threat of rapid fire spread becomes more isolated to the lower to middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. - Stray erratic and gusty winds from virga showers will impact a few spots across northwestern and north-central NM this afternoon. - Afternoon thunderstorm activity increases over eastern New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 While dry southwesterly winds remain over western NM, higher moisture alongside northeasterly to easterly winds resides through eastern NM into parts of the Rio Grande Valley bringing a nice change to the recent stretch of critical fire weather conditions. The strong jetmax rounding an H5 low has ejected out over the Great Plains last night with a loitering H5 shortwave trough over UT/NV this morning. While dry southwesterly flow remains aloft over the Desert Southwest, winds will not be nearly as strong as what was observed Monday. Meanwhile, a potent cold front has backed southwestward across eastern NM bringing gusty northeasterly winds of 35 to 45 mph to areas from Clayton to Clovis overnight. This front will bring gusty easterly to southeasterly winds thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into Santa Fe and Albuquerque around sunrise this morning. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph can be expected before winds veer southerly by mid-day and afternoon, staying breezy to windy all afternoon. While most areas will remain dry, there is enough moisture to allow for isolated virga showers to develop over portions of the northwestern highlands along the Continental Divide into the Tusas and Jemez Mts late this afternoon. Stray and erratic gusty winds with little to no accompanying rainfall will be the main hazard from this, impacting outdoor activities in the area. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning continues to see numerical model guidance advertising the aforementioned cold front through eastern NM which had been ushered back stage east toward TX/OK advance back westward thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the Rio Grande Valley. With the loitering H5 shortwave still over UT and northern AZ, southwesterly flow aloft remaining over NM will again try to sharpen a dryline feature somewhere N-S along the central highlands Wednesday afternoon. There remains considerable forecast uncertainty regarding afternoon convective potential thru eastern NM. There is a clear demarcation between the moist continental airmass behind the aforementioned cold front and the moist maritime airmass associated with southerly return flow from the Gulf advecting northward into the Permian Basin and southeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. Thunderstorm activity is firing up along this sharp surface boundary over OK into the TX Panhandle this hour. However, this surface boundary will become more diffuse by Wednesday through eastern NM, and numerical model guidance has a wide range of latitudinal solutions of how far north/south the Gulf moisture reaches into eastern NM Wednesday. This yields two scenarios for many areas of east-central and southeastern NM regarding thunderstorm potential. One being the NAM solution which favors the more stable continental airmass further south with relatively lower Td's in the 40s with perhaps just a few stray showers and thunderstorms along a dryline immediately east of the central mountain chain. The second being a more convectively bullish scenario favored by the deterministic GFS where the warmer and more unstable Gulf moisture is further north into eastern NM allowing for scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorm activity first beginning along the dryline over the central highlands of NM before progressing eastward toward TX in the evening. In fact, the SPC has issued a conditionally marginal risk for strong/severe thunderstorm activity thru the southeastern quadrant of the state Wednesday afternoon. Bottom line, Wednesday's thunderstorm potential for eastern NM boils down to how far north the warm more unstable Gulf moisture can push. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Outflow from any thunderstorm activity Wednesday evening will push low-level moisture back west to and thru the gaps of the central mountain chain again. Dry westerlies advance back east Thursday afternoon as the loitering H5 trough over UT finally gets escorted out of the area and moves along eastward over CO. This shifts any thunderstorm activity eastward along a sharpening dryline feature favored close to the TX border Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday sees continued dry conditions with lighter winds across western and central NM thanks to weaker flow aloft to the northeast of a 575dm H5 low over the northern Baja Peninsula. A cold front backing southward into northeastern NM from CO will advance thru eastern NM and up to the central mountain chain Saturday. With a ridge of high pressure building overhead, this will set the stage for daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity favoring development along the central mountain chain first. Subsequent outflow boundaries look to initiate secondary convection later in the day and evening thru central and eastern NM, with moisture steadily increasing precipitation chances a bit further west each day into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 Strong southwesterly winds have tapered off for the most part this evening, replaced by gusty northerly to northeasterly winds pushing into northeastern NM behind a cold front advancing southward from CO. This frontal boundary is pushing through KTCC this hour, and will bring gusty winds thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into KSAF and KABQ near sunrise Tuesday morning around 13Z to 14Z, reaching KROW an hour or so earlier by 11Z to 12Z. Winds across eastern NM quickly veer southeasterly, joining up with southerly to southwesterly winds through central and western NM Tuesday afternoon. Breezy to locally winds are expected again but at notably lesser speeds relative to what was observed Monday. Low-level moisture increasing the chances for IFR ceilings moves into southeastern NM, including at KROW, toward the end of the TAF period Tuesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 While a cold front has brought a significant uptick in moisture alongside northeasterly winds veering southeasterly later today through eastern NM, drier southwesterly winds will remain along and west of the central mountain chain. The exception will be early this morning when the aforementioned cold front briefly surges thru the gaps of the central mountain chain into the middle Rio Grande Valley into Santa Fe and ABQ. Any low-level moisture increase from this will be quickly ushered back out by the increasing dry southwesterly winds. Prevailing winds will be considerably less than what was observed Monday, but still strong enough to combine with humidity falling below 10 percent to produce critical fire weather conditions into the middle Rio Grande Valley and nearby south-central highlands south of the Manzano Mountains for several hours this afternoon. This has warranted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and early evening. A similar setup is favored Wednesday in this area, and yet another Red Flag Warning focused on the southern half of the middle Rio Grande Valley will have to be evaluated. Eastern NM sees the aforementioned cold front bringing lower temperatures and higher humidity ushered back east toward TX this afternoon. The higher moisture advances west each night, getting ushered back east toward TX each afternoon today through Thursday. Any afternoon thunderstorm activity thru eastern NM will favor areas along a sharpening dryline, although there is considerable uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 76 44 76 42 / 0 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 71 36 73 31 / 10 10 10 0 Cuba............................ 73 42 74 39 / 10 10 5 0 Gallup.......................... 74 37 74 35 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 73 43 72 41 / 10 5 0 0 Grants.......................... 78 42 77 39 / 10 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 75 44 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 52 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 75 48 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 78 42 79 39 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 83 45 84 43 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 65 36 66 33 / 10 30 20 5 Los Alamos...................... 71 51 71 49 / 10 10 20 10 Pecos........................... 71 43 70 43 / 10 10 30 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 42 69 41 / 10 30 20 10 Red River....................... 59 35 59 34 / 10 40 30 10 Angel Fire...................... 63 30 64 30 / 10 30 40 20 Taos............................ 71 39 73 36 / 10 20 20 10 Mora............................ 67 41 66 42 / 10 30 30 40 Espanola........................ 79 48 79 45 / 10 10 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 73 49 72 47 / 10 10 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 75 47 75 45 / 10 10 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 81 55 81 54 / 10 10 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 82 54 83 52 / 10 10 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 52 84 49 / 10 10 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 83 54 84 52 / 10 10 5 0 Belen........................... 86 50 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 83 53 83 51 / 10 10 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 85 49 85 46 / 5 5 5 0 Corrales........................ 84 54 85 51 / 10 10 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 85 50 86 47 / 0 5 5 0 Placitas........................ 79 54 78 52 / 10 10 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 83 54 84 51 / 10 10 10 0 Socorro......................... 87 56 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 76 50 75 48 / 10 5 20 5 Tijeras......................... 78 50 76 48 / 10 5 20 5 Edgewood........................ 77 46 75 44 / 10 5 20 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 42 77 40 / 5 5 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 70 44 68 45 / 0 10 30 20 Mountainair..................... 78 46 78 44 / 0 0 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 77 48 78 46 / 0 0 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 54 82 53 / 0 0 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 73 52 71 50 / 0 5 20 5 Capulin......................... 62 35 59 40 / 5 20 30 40 Raton........................... 67 41 65 42 / 5 20 30 50 Springer........................ 69 41 66 43 / 0 30 30 40 Las Vegas....................... 66 44 64 44 / 10 30 30 50 Clayton......................... 66 42 61 46 / 0 20 30 50 Roy............................. 68 42 62 45 / 0 30 30 50 Conchas......................... 75 47 69 48 / 0 30 40 40 Santa Rosa...................... 76 47 68 47 / 0 30 30 40 Tucumcari....................... 75 48 70 51 / 0 20 40 40 Clovis.......................... 76 50 68 52 / 0 20 40 30 Portales........................ 77 50 70 51 / 0 20 40 30 Fort Sumner..................... 79 50 72 50 / 0 20 50 30 Roswell......................... 85 57 77 56 / 0 20 30 30 Picacho......................... 83 51 77 50 / 0 10 30 10 Elk............................. 83 49 80 48 / 0 5 30 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24  370 FXUS62 KILM 190709 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 309 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No longer any Coastal Flooding for New Hanover County. Updated 06Z TAF discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures well above normal, particularly for areas west of I-95, will continue through Thursday. 2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures well above normal, particularly for areas west of I-95, will continue through Thursday. An upper high will shift into the Atlantic and leave an axis of higher heights from the Gulf into the central Atlantic, and this is responsible for the sustained period of hot inland temperatures, which should last through Thursday. Sinking air below the upper ridge will create a deep warm, dry layer in the middle troposphere, supporting abnormally warm surface temperatures. Models have maintained their 850 mb temp forecasts of +16C to 18C (at or above the 90th percentile climatological values for this time of year), which increases confidence in our forecast of 90+ degree heat continuing through Thursday for locations away from the daily cooling influences of the sea breeze. Our forecast is for 90+ degree heat inland through Thursday. Since Florence and Lumberton highs reached 90 degrees on Sunday, a five day streak would eclipse this year's earlier streak of four days of 90 degree temps recorded from April 15-18 in both Florence and Lumberton. Coastal portions of the Carolinas should remain significantly cooler than inland due to sustained south winds dragging air across nearshore water still near 70 degrees. The timing of the cold front looks to have slowed to Thursday night, stalling in the area Friday before lifting north once more for the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas. Dry weather will come to an end as a front shifts in from the north on Thursday. There's reasonable uncertainty on placement of highest POPs day to day as we deal with a stalled front in or near the area and the daily sea breeze. The front should lift north of the area into the weekend but the warm, humid air mass will continue to support at least daily pop-up shower and storm chances through the end of the period. POPs Thursday through the weekend have been lowered to reflect trends from non-NBM guidance. For now, highest precip chances will be Friday with the frontal passage, but lack of any PVA aloft will limit widespread coverage. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... In general boundary layer moisture is not quite as high as it was last night (based on dewpoints). However, still anticipate fog development at the majority if not all the terminals. Best potential for IFR will once again be CRE/ILM given those sites proximity to water/swamps. Do wonder if the slight decrease in low level moisture will result in visibility bouncing around a bit more than last night, something already being seen at a few non TAF sites in the area. Winds are also taking a little longer to drop off, but should see all sites settle on calm in the next hour or so. Fog at FLO/LBT is more likely to remain in the MVFR category while MYR may end up flirting with 2SM. Cannot rule out some low stratus at any of the sites, although expect true ceiling development will be confined to the coastal sites. Will see a return of VFR at all sites before 12Z and possibly as early as 11Z. VFR will dominate through the day and likely through 06Z. Once again the sea breeze will develop and push well inland. Coastal terminals will see gusts 15-20 kt bymidday. Sea breeze will reach FLO/LBT between 22Z and 00Z. Extended Forecast...MVFR/IFR fog/ceilings are possible Wednesday through Saturday mornings, generally in the 08z-12z timeframe. Confidence is moderate. Potential for daytime restrictions Friday and Saturday due to convection. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Pattern remains unchanged with Bermuda High resulting in southerly flow across the waters. Midday sea breeze will enhance wind speeds close to shore with potential for 10-15 kt gusting to 20 kt. However, the majority of the waters will see wind speeds closer to 10 kt with limited gusts. A southeast swell 2-3 ft will be the only significant wave through tonight. Wednesday through Sunday... Southerly flow will remain in control through the period with increasing shower/storm chances Thursday onwards. A front will approach the area Friday but for now is not expected to clear the waters. Should it, winds could turn E to even NE during Friday before the front lifts north again later Friday night. Otherwise, winds speeds will be enhanced each afternoon close to the coast to ~15 kts. Seas within 20nmi will be 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft beyond. The primary swell will be SE at 8-9 seconds. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...ILM DISCUSSION...ILM AVIATION...III MARINE...III/LEW  518 FXUS63 KDTX 190710 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 310 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions exist again today which supports a risk of severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. The strongest storms are capable of damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. - A cold front Tuesday night ushers in dry and cooler weather for Wednesday and Thursday. - The next chance of rain arrives late Friday and Friday night. && .DISCUSSION... Higher magnitude warmth and humidity for mid May entrenched locally early this morning, as the area holds within deep layer south- southwest flow for one final day. Forecast for today offers a more muddled picture in terms of convective potential, scale and timing relative to that noted yesterday. Intermittent bouts of meaningful moisture advection will deliver another surge of higher quality theta-e early in the day, providing some potential for greater cloud cover to exist along with the possibility for some pockets of convective showers. With that, expectation for gradual boundary layer destabilization with time as intervals of greater insolation capitalize on the elevated dewpoint (mid-upper 60s), yielding upwards of 1500 j/kg of mlcape by late afternoon. There is a definitive model signal for higher instability to exist southeast of a Howell to Sandusky line, but with the best instability (2000+ j/kg of mlcape) remaining across Ohio. Convective focus most likely along some composite pre-frontal trough or remnant convective vort max out ahead of the main cold front within the 19z to 00z window, offering the greatest potential for more meaningful updrafts to emerge mainly within the aforementioned main instability gradient. Background wind field generally modest overall, but with potential again for some local enhancement should the convective response be governed by a stronger convective wave. This maintains an opportunity for organized late day convective development carrying a risk for strong winds and large hail. Afternoon temperatures peaking in the upper 80s/near 90 across portions of metro Detroit and points south and mainly mid 80s elsewhere. Warm sector environment will again become diurnally gusty, with winds reaching 30 to 35 mph from the southwest at times. A few lingering showers around early tonight as the cold front settles through the region. Otherwise, turning notably drier and cooler as the post-cold frontal environment settles into region overnight into Wednesday. Deep layer stability held within prevailing low to mid level ridging affords dry and seasonably cool conditions lasting into Thursday. A standard moderation of the existing airmass then occurs Friday under a high degree of insolation and increasing upper height field, but still lacking in meaningful warm air advection. Highs the remainder of the week mainly in the 60s. Coldest readings noted Thursday morning, reaching into the mid and upper 30s in some locations. Southern stream shortwave forecast to eject from the southern plains into the great lakes this weekend. Increasing magnitude of mid level southwest flow downstream of this wave will drive a notable surge of moisture advection directly into Lower Michigan Friday night. While some higher based light showers are possible late Friday as the column gradually saturates, the main window for widespread, meaningful rainfall will arrive Friday evening and persist overnight. Model guidance is coalescing around a broad swath of mainly stratiform rain with embedded elevated convective elements sweeping from southwest to northeast across Southeast Michigan. Precipitation may carry over into early Saturday, before chances taper off into the afternoon. Otherwise, generally seasonable conditions for the weekend period. && .MARINE... A warm and humid airmass over the cooler waters of the Great Lakes will support the development and expansion of dense marine fog. Sustainment of fog will be likely through the morning hours as a strong inversion holds overhead, and will likely continue to some degree through the early afternoon until a cold front mixes out the layer. As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through the afternoon. Otherwise, calm to lighter winds hold overnight with some limited chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Southwest flow increases in magnitude during daylight hours tomorrow which will bring wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots through the Saginaw Bay and along the nearshore areas which have resulted in renewed Small Craft Advisories. The development of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again in the afternoon and evening, favored across southern Lake Huron and locations south. Wind gusts aoa 50 knots will be the primary hazard for severe weather development. Passage of the cold front will end the severe weather threat, veering winds from the southwest to northwest through the evening. High pressure builds behind the front, bringing lighter winds through the midweek period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1142 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 AVIATION... VFR conditions in place tonight. Strengthening southwesterly winds this morning draws richer low level moisture back into SE MI supporting the developing of scattered low cloud (~2-3kft). There is signal for widely scattered shower development along the nose of this moisture offering a shot at light showers and borderline MVFR cigs for the mid/late morning hours. An approaching cold front reaches southern lower MI by afternoon bringing the next chances for showers/storms. Due to the morning shower/low cloud potential, exactly how much the region is able to destabilize (which in turn will affect the subsequent coverage of thunderstorms) is the main point of uncertainty. As such, have maintained Prob30s groups except for MBS as confidence in convection developing that far to the northwest is lowering, better potential looking towards Detroit. D21/DTW Convection... No convection is forecast tonight through Tuesday morning. There is a chance for scattered storms to develop in the afternoon, ~20-00Z, in advance of a cold front. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low-medium for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. * Low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft tonight, medium by Tuesday morning through the day. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422-441>443. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ361>363- 462>464. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444. && $$ DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......MR AVIATION.....KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  566 FXUS65 KREV 190710 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1210 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Another cool morning today before temps slowly trend upwards through the week. * A ridge builds back into the region by mid-week, allowing for warmer and drier conditions into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Sub-freezing temperatures will prevail in the lower valleys of Southern Lyon and Mineral counties this morning, as well as in much of the Sierra south of the Tahoe Basin. Highs rebound to the low 70s and 60s (valleys and upper elevations, respectively) this afternoon, warming steadily each day to the upper 80s and 70s ahead of the holiday weekend. Expect dry conditions with light winds through the work week; plenty of uncertainty on model guidance this weekend with low chances (<10%) for showers and thunderstorms at this time. -Giralte && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for all terminals through the week with typical light west winds. -Giralte && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$  925 FXUS61 KCAR 190714 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 314 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Added a Small Craft Advisory for outer-waters tonight into Wednesday - Added frost/freeze potential Friday night into Saturday morning into the key message and lowered low temperatures && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Chance for thunderstorms and warm temperatures this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. 2) Below average temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures are possible early Friday and Saturday mornings across the north, which may require actions to protect vulnerable plants. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for thunderstorms and warm temperatures this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Low pressure system, mid-level shortwave, and associated warm front moves through the region this morning. Region warms ahead of warm frontal passage, raising the daytime highs to roughly upper 60s in the north, and low 80s in the Central Highlands, and mid-80s in the Bangor and Downeast region. Maine stays within the warm sector of this frontal system until cold front passes Wednesday night. As a result, daytime highs on Wednesday are near the upper-70s in the north, mid-80s in the Central Highlands and Bangor regions. Instability rises during the afternoon on Tuesday, bringing with it the chance for some thunderstorms across the Central Highlands, and Bangor to Downeast regions. Based on sounding analysis, there is generally 1,000 – 2,000 J/kg of CAPE, decent shear parameters, and PWATs roughly around 1.25-2.0 inches. The main threat with these storms seems to be severe wind gusts, as low-level lapse rates are decently steep and DCAPE values around 600-800 J/kg. There is room for some hail development in some of these stronger storms. Thunderstorm chances decrease as the sun sets. Primarily random single cell storms that pop-up, so hard to pin-point an exact location of storm development. Generally, anticipating anywhere in the I-95 corridor and south has the best chances of seeing a severe thunderstorm, gusty winds, and small hail. Tornado threat is non-zero, based on favorable instability (helicity and LCL heights), but gusty winds and small hail are the primary threats. As cold front approaches Wednesday, there is another chance for some thunderstorms. Soundings show 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, 500-600 J/kg of DCAPE, and decent lapse rates. Most favorable parameters for any thunderstorms, are confined to the Downeast and eastern Maine region, during the afternoon into evening period. Regardless of storm development, however, is that there is expected to be some gusty winds during the day (gusts 30mph are possible during the afternoon). KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures are possible early Friday and Saturday mornings across the north, which may require actions to protect vulnerable plants. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The frost/freeze program will expand across much of the rest of northern and eastern Maine on Thursday except across the North Woods and Saint John Valley, where it begins on June 1. Strong cold air advection is expected Thursday behind a cold front, with 1000-500mb thicknesses dropping below 540dam for much of the northern half of the forecast area by Thursday night. With a strong jet streak overhead and moderate surface pressure gradient, decoupling is less likely except across the most sheltered valley locations. Some cloud cover is also possible late. Drier air with dew points in the mid 20s may also prevent frost formation. Even without frost, some damage to plants is possible in these conditions as 2 meter temperaturesfall into the mid 30s north of Baxter State Park. By Friday night the surface ridge of high pressure extends over the area from central Quebec. This will lead to lighter winds and a better chance of decoupling over more areas, especially the lower elevations of northern Maine. Low temperatures into early Saturday morning may be a few to several degrees lower than blended guidance as a result. Dew points will also be higher in the upper 20s and lower 30s, leading to more frost formation potential across northern zones. Below average temperatures will continue for Saturday and Saturday night, but a moderation is expected as high pressure moves over and eventually east of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Today: MVFR, potentially lower in terminals with severe thunderstorms. Chance for some morning fog at KBHB, that will burn off as the sun rises. Best chance for thunderstorms is during the afternoon into evening. Moving through thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and small hail. Light winds from the W/SW today. Potential for wind gusts to 20kts. LLWS in the morning. Tonight: VFR at southern terminals, and potential for MVFR at northern terminals in rain showers and low ceilings. SW winds at 5-10 kts. LLWS overnight. Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in any stronger thunderstorms. Best chance for thunderstorms are at southern terminals during the afternoon into evening period. WSW winds around 10-15 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts possible. Wednesday night to Thursday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Thursday night: VFR. WNW winds 5-10 kts. Friday: VFR. NW winds NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Friday night to Saturday: VFR with light and variable winds, increasing to around 5-10 kts during the day.&& .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory for outer waters in effect for tonight into Wednesday, with seas around 5ft and some wind gusts to 25kts possible. Chance for some marine fog this morning. Chance for passing rain today, and chance for rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday. SW winds today into Wednesday. Winds and seas are likely to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday night through early next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...ASB/MWS AVIATION...ASB/MWS  929 FXUS61 KOKX 190714 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 314 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot weather thru Wed. A heat advisory remains in effect for NE NJ and NYC. 2) An isold tstm is possible today. A cold front produces scattered tstms on Wed with damaging winds the main severe threat. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend with chances of showers. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Offshore high pressure and increasing low level SW warm air advection will make for much warmer temperatures today and Wednesday as well. Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM today to 8PM Wednesday. This is the first high heat index event of the year for NE NJ and NYC. Warmest day is today with SW flow and daytime mixing. Temperatures in the 90s for all of NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and much of interior Southern CT as well as much of Nassau County NY. Mid to upper 90s for high temperatures much NE NJ and NYC Metro for temperatures and heat indices. Dewpoints are mostly in the low 60s today. Slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. This same distribution exists for high temperatures on Wednesday as well but a few degrees cooler on average. The dewpoints increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday with values mainly in the low to mid 60s. So for Wednesday, temperatures a little less than the previous day but dewpoints a little higher than the previous day. Highs mostly in the lower 90s Wednesday for much of NE NJ and NYC with corresponding heat indices in the mid 90s. Again, slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Subsidence and a lack of upr lvl support should limit convective chances today, but there is a chance that an isold tstm is triggered mainly across the interior this aftn where there will be high CAPE and no CIN. Best severe chances if initiation does occur could be interior CT into the Lower Hudson Valley invof the CAPE gradient. NBM pops are generally dry, despite a Marginal Risk from SPC. Stuck with the NBM pops for now and will see what mesoscale analysis yields today. No change to the fcst thinking for Wed. The cold front looks to move in first for Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT latter half of the afternoon and then crosses through the NYC Metro and coastal sections by early evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening. There is potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail. Flooding threat minimal with the westerly flow in the atmosphere and quick steering flow. However, a quick period of heavy rain and possible minor flooding cannot be ruled out with some thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend with quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. In its place, low pressure approaches from the south and west. Model variances on how far north the low reaches. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are around 70 on Thursday. Northerly flow presents downslope warming first half of the day, allowing for coastal locations to berelatively warmer than inland. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid 60s to near 70 and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly really limiting the daytime warmth with more maritime influence. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure remains over the western Atlantic with a frontal system over the mid section of the country slowly approaching the terminals into Wednesday. VFR through the TAF period. There is a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly NW of the NYC metro. Confidence in the occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. SSW-SW winds under 10 kt early this morning increase to 10-15 kt mid to late morning and early afternoon. Gusts around 20 kt are possible in the afternoon and early evening with a few coastal terminals potentially seeing gusts up to 25 kt. There is a chance gusts will end up occasional. Any gusts should end around 00z with sustained wind speeds gradually weakening below 10 kt tonight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may end up occasional this afternoon. Very low chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly west of the NYC terminals this afternoon/early evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Late tonight: Mainly VFR. Low chance for IFR or lower conditions at KGON. Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with Showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. S/SW winds gusts 20-25kt day into eve. NW windshift in the evening with gusts ending. Thursday: Mainly VFR. Friday: Chance of showers and MVFR conditions. Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Increasing SW flow will produce SCA winds and seas on the ocean thru Wed. Marginal elsewhere, especially the LI back bays where winds will be close this aftn thru Wed. Conditions improve for Thu and Fri behind the cold front, then worsen on Sat as ely winds increase and seas build. There could be sct strong tstms invof the front on Wed. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-103>108. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$  951 FXUS63 KAPX 190714 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 314 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered showers and storms continue this morning with hot and humid weather through the afternoon. -Cool and quiet weather returns Wednesday through the remainder of the work week with frost/freeze concerns tonight through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Pattern Synopsis: Longwave midlevel troughing is currently positioned over the North American Plains today with a strong jet max over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, low pressure positioned over Northern Wisconsin this morning will progress northeast today and drag a cold front across the CWA. Hot and humid air ahead of the front will continue to linger over the region before the strong thermal gradient rapidly drops temperatures overnight. Scattered showers and storms remain possible ahead of the frontal passage this morning as lingering instability settles across Northern Lower today. Cool and quiet weather builds into the region this evening through the remainder of the work week. cP air influence will return climatologically cool surface temps ahead of an upstream midlevel ridging pattern that builds over the central CONUS this week, causing temperatures to slowly build back to the mid/upper 70s. Dewpoint temps falling near or below freezing with efficient radiational cooling will return overnight frost/freeze concerns. Additionally, another thing to monitor amidst the atmospherically dry and cool high pressure is the continuation of minimal RH values approaching critical thresholds for fire weather. Precipitation chances build this weekend as a secondary trough axis develops over the North American Rockies and lifts northeast. No impactful weather is expected at this time, but energy waves will continue to inject enough instability to keep rainfall in the forecast as we head into late May. Forecast Details: Scattered showers and storms continue this morning with hot and humid weather through this afternoon... Enough lift from the well- advertised frontal boundary will fuel scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms this morning into the early afternoon. Overnight loss of surface based instability combined with showers becoming detached from the cold front itself will keep any severe potential minimal across the CWA. While most locations can expect mostly cloudy skies with hot and humid temperatures this afternoon behind the decaying line, daytime heating processes will build the minimal CAPE and shear values to support one or two single-celled thunderstorms that could produce strong gusty winds and/or hail. Cool and quiet weather returns through the remainder of the week with frost/freeze concerns Tuesday through Thursday night... Post- frontal northwest flow will pull cool and dry cP air into the Great Lakes Region tonight. Cold air advection combined with clear skies and radiational cooling processes will return potential frost development tonight followed by widespread frost/freeze Wednesday and Thursday nights. Surface high pressure will continue through the end of the work week, but surface temperatures are expected to slowly build as upstream embedded ridging shifts its axis over the Midwest. 850mb temps start near freezing and increase to around 10 degrees Celsius by the end of the week, resulting in adiabatic heating processes warming daytime highs from the 50s this Wednesday to the mid/upper 70s for most areas by the end of the week. One other thing to monitor this week besides the frost/freeze concerns is the dry dew points near or below freezing, leading to minimal RH values dropping to near critical thresholds for fire weather. No windis expected under aforementioned subsidence, but we will continue to monitor conditions this Wednesday and Thursday if any potential lake breeze processes occur. Somewhat active weather returns this weekend as another trough develops surface low pressure lee of the Rockies and makes its way to the Midwest around the Saturday/Sunday timeframe. Latest guidance depicts strongest moisture advection to our south, likely leading to steady stratiform precipitation for the Northwoods. Additional waves of energy will keep slight to scattered PoP’s in the forecast through the remainder of the forecast period, but no widespread precipitation or impactful weather is expected at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1154 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Fog/stratus is developing, especially in northern sites (CIU/PLN/APN). IFR to VLIFR expected at times overnight. This should improve as thicker clouds and showers return to the area toward and after daybreak. Still expect CIU to be IFR/LIFR for much of Tuesday, and PLN for Tuesday morning. MVFR elsewhere Tuesday with some showers, and perhaps a few TSRA. Breezy s to sw winds early Tuesday become w and nw late. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322. && $$ DISCUSSION...SJC AVIATION...JZ  102 FXUS63 KDLH 190717 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 217 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another night with showers and storms possible. Severe risk has decreased and is now isolated to southeast portions of our CWA. Primary threats would be damaging winds and large hail. - Freeze Warning likely needed across most the region for Tuesday night. - Cool temps through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Early this morning, widespread stratus clouds and lingering showers are moving through the Northland in the wake of last nights low pressure system. As the morning progresses, cold air advection on the back side of the departing system will move into the area. This cool air will lead to steepening lapse rates and the potential for afternoon showers. However, because there is an abundance of low level dry air in place, most of the falling rain will evaporate before reaching the ground. As a result, mostly sprinkles are expected across the majority of the Northland today. The exception will be up toward the Borderlands, where slightly better lower level moisture will allow for some actual traces of rain to reach the surface. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Widespread stratus has engulfed most the region in the wake of last nights showers and isolated storms. We are also seeing some areas of fog from the Brainerd Lakes Region and extending northeast through the Twin Ports and up the shore. This layer of stable air will keep temperatures cool with highs staying in the 50s under this cloud deck. Satellite is showing a few pockets of clearing over SE MN and western WI where temperatures will rebound back into the 70s helping to reload instability for this evenings convective potential. However, up in our portion of NW WI there are few breaks in the clouds with low clouds still filtering in from the west, so recovery seems limited. A baroclinic zone will still be draped across the Upper Midwest this afternoon with a surface low pressure centered over SE MN. Through the evening and overnight hours several low pressure systems will ride along this boundary boosting lift and helping to fuel shower and storm development. However, satellite trends through the morning hours have not been favorable for instability recovery and our temperatures across the region remain quite cool when compared to our neighbors to the south. The main threat for severe weather will be well off to our south. As such the SPC has pulled the severe risk down to just our SE corner with a marginal risk. Some strong storms can't be ruled out at this time with some damaging winds and hail at times, but the tornado chances are no longer a concern. Showers are expected to become more widespread later this evening. The two focal points for this activity is the low pressure moving along the stalled boundary and an upper level trough pivoting across the Upper Midwest. Targeted timing for rain entering from the southwest is after 9PM with activity departing to the northeast after 8AM. With the reduced risk for thunderstorms our overall rain totals have come down a bit with most the region seeing between 0.10-0.25" Areas that do see thunderstorms will have locally higher amounts, but the overall risk for flooding has diminished. Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday: Northwest flow and surface high pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday. Cyclonic flow aloft paired with remnant moisture will lead to diurnally driven cumulus and isolated sprinkles across northern MN. Temperatures will be on the cool side for Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Overnight, the high pressure moves over MN with clear skies leading to rapid radiational cooling. Widespread Freeze Warnings will likely be needed across the region. Conditions dry out a bit more on Wednesday with high temps rebounding back into the 50s and 60s. Winds will be light so fire weather concerns are low at this time. By Thursday high pressure departs to the east and we will get southerly return flow streaming back into the region. High temps will continue to climb back into the upper 60s with cooler conditions expected by Lake Superior. Friday-Weekend: An upper level trough is still expected to move across the Northern Plains to end the work week bringing rain chances back to the Northland. Timing of this has been slowed down when compared to previous model runs with 20-30% PoPs now entering Friday afternoon. This will also prompt the return of southwest flow aloft leading to a warming trend. Weekend temperatures in the 70s and some 80s possible with cooler by the Lake still in play. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and storms are moving through the Northland. Lightning is becoming more and more scarce as we lose forcing to sustain thunderstorms. However, the last line of storms will make their way through DLH in the next couple hours, and will move through HYR later on as well. INL and HIB will continue to see showers for the next few hours as well. Northwest flow and cold air advection will lead to some scattered showers throughout the afternoon. Air near the surface will be dry, so these will struggle to reach the ground. So, have included VCSH at all affected terminals for now. Northwest winds will increase this morning and reach up to 15 kts throughout the afternoon. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior today. Northwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots expected across most zones through the afternoon. A few lingering showers are possible early this morning before diminishing. Wave heights will generally range from 2 to 4 feet today, occasionally reaching up to 7 feet in the outer Apostle Islands, before subsiding to 1 to 3 feet by late afternoon and evening. Winds become lighter on Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cloudy conditions and scattered showers continue early this morning, keeping minimum relative humidity values high today. As cold air moves in today, we will see gusty northwest winds and afternoon sprinkles. Wednesday brings a dry day with light winds as high pressure moves in. Critical fire weather concerns increase for Thursday, which features the greatest chance for low relative humidity dropping to 25 percent along with gusty southerly winds up to 20 mph. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>143. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LSZ144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for LSZ146- 147. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148- 150. && $$ UPDATE...KML DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  116 FXUS64 KEWX 190718 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 218 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of strong to severe storms with locally heavy rain possible Tuesday evening/night. - Active weather pattern from mid-week through the upcoming Memorial Holiday weekend. Rounds of storms with heavy rain could lead to localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Breezy and warm conditions continue tonight under overcast skies. Lows early Tuesday morning will be in the 70s across South Central Texas with most climate sites once again nearing their record high minimum temperatures. Breezy, humid and hot conditions continue during the day tomorrow although gusts should be a bit weaker than those seen Monday in the 20-25 mph range through the afternoon. Heat index values may approach triple digits from the I-35 corridor and areas east but rise from 100-107 degrees along the Rio Grande. Dry conditions are likely through late this afternoon before a weak cold front slowly moves towards our area evident by likely ongoing convection north of our area in the afternoon. Further west, isolated to scattered storms may develop near the dry line over the higher terrain of Mexico then make its way wast towards the Rio Grande before colliding with the front. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be nearing the Hill Country from the north or northwest in the evening then move across the area tonight into Wednesday morning. A Level 2 of 5 risk continues for severe weather with the greatest risk generally along and west of the I-35 corridor. While there could be some isolated storms ahead of the front and in the west ahead of the dryline, the main activity will likely be in a line or broken line as it enters our area this evening. The main severe risk continues to be isolated strong to severe wind gusts, though potentially large hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest updrafts. There do remain some differences on how quickly this activity moves across the area which will have an effect on localized rainfall amounts. WPC highlights a level 2 of 4 risk for isolated excessive rainfall which could lead to localized flash flooding for a majority of our area including the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. General rainfall amounts of around 0.75" to 1" are expected but pockets of locally higher amounts may be in the 3-5" range. Most storm activity will be south of our area near sunrise with more stable conditions in place as the atmosphere recovers. Cooler temperatures in the 80s are expected for a majority of the area Wednesday. While some isolated showers or a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during the day, it seems more likely rain-free conditions will continue into the afternoon Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An active pattern continues in the extended period with daily rain chances due to persistent upper-level southwesterly flow bringing multiple disturbances moving over the area. The atmosphere may still be recovering for most areas Wednesday evening but a highly moist airmass and stalled surface boundary to the north will allow for continued medium to high rain chances Wednesday night and Thursday. Some guidance indicates a complex of storms developing in West Texas and moving towards the area late Wednesday night and gradually working its way across the area Thursday. There is some potential for severe weather but higher confidence would be for some heavy rain given high precipitable water values. A Slight (Level 2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall remains valid on Thursday which includes portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. As mentioned previously, each round of storms will influence the next days storm potential so confidence on precise timing and placement for any activity is low in the long term forecast. That said, the weekend remains another time period to watch as models indicate a passing shortwave trough during this period with no real definitive ending to this pattern into early next week. Each round of rainfall will lead to a deeper moistening of soils and possibly more runoff late week as grounds saturate. The pattern may lead to widespread beneficial rain for most areas but areas that receive repeated rounds and higher totals will likely see increasing potential for flash flooding or river flooding. Given the storm potential can rely on leftover boundaries from previous days, its hard to say exactly where the highest rain totals will be. Towards the end of the week it is likely most of, if not all, of South Central Texas will see some rainfall this week. Continue to check the forecast as the week progresses for those with plans this weekend for the Memorial Day holiday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Ceilings will be MVFR overnight at all terminals. VFR conditions will return by late morning or early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting around noon and becoming more likely during the late afternoon. We've targeted between 03Z and 06Z as the most likely time for thunderstorm, but they could come earlier or later. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 91 72 85 71 / 40 80 30 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 73 85 72 / 30 80 40 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 72 86 71 / 30 80 40 80 Burnet Muni Airport 88 69 82 69 / 40 80 30 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 95 72 89 69 / 30 50 40 100 Georgetown Muni Airport 89 71 83 70 / 40 80 30 70 Hondo Muni Airport 91 72 86 70 / 20 80 40 90 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 73 86 72 / 30 80 40 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 73 86 73 / 30 70 40 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 73 86 72 / 20 80 40 80 Stinson Muni Airport 93 74 87 72 / 20 80 40 80 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...05  170 FXUS63 KDLH 190720 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 220 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for light showers and sprinkles increase this afternoon into the evening. - Freeze Warning likely needed across most the region for tonight. - Cool temps through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Early this morning, widespread stratus clouds and lingering showers are moving through the Northland in the wake of last nights low pressure system. As the morning progresses, cold air advection on the back side of the departing system will move into the area. This cool air will lead to steepening lapse rates and the potential for afternoon showers. However, because there is an abundance of low level dry air in place, most of the falling rain will evaporate before reaching the ground. As a result, mostly sprinkles are expected across the majority of the Northland today. The exception will be up toward the Borderlands, where slightly better lower level moisture will allow for some actual traces of rain to reach the surface. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Current Conditions/Today: Widespread stratus has engulfed most the region in the wake of last nights showers and isolated storms. We are also seeing some areas of fog from the Brainerd Lakes Region and extending northeast through the Twin Ports and up the shore. This layer of stable air will keep temperatures cool with highs staying in the 50s under this cloud deck. Satellite is showing a few pockets of clearing over SE MN and western WI where temperatures will rebound back into the 70s helping to reload instability for this evenings convective potential. However, up in our portion of NW WI there are few breaks in the clouds with low clouds still filtering in from the west, so recovery seems limited. A baroclinic zone will still be draped across the Upper Midwest this afternoon with a surface low pressure centered over SE MN. Through the evening and overnight hours several low pressure systems will ride along this boundary boosting lift and helping to fuel shower and storm development. However, satellite trends through the morning hours have not been favorable for instability recovery and our temperatures across the region remain quite cool when compared to our neighbors to the south. The main threat for severe weather will be well off to our south. As such the SPC has pulled the severe risk down to just our SE corner with a marginal risk. Some strong storms can't be ruled out at this time with some damaging winds and hail at times, but the tornado chances are no longer a concern. Showers are expected to become more widespread later this evening. The two focal points for this activity is the low pressure moving along the stalled boundary and an upper level trough pivoting across the Upper Midwest. Targeted timing for rain entering from the southwest is after 9PM with activity departing to the northeast after 8AM. With the reduced risk for thunderstorms our overall rain totals have come down a bit with most the region seeing between 0.10-0.25" Areas that do see thunderstorms will have locally higher amounts, but the overall risk for flooding has diminished. Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday: Northwest flow and surface high pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday. Cyclonic flow aloft paired with remnant moisture will lead to diurnally driven cumulus and isolated sprinkles across northern MN. Temperatures will be on the cool side for Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Overnight, the high pressure moves over MN with clear skies leading to rapid radiational cooling. Widespread Freeze Warnings will likely be needed across the region. Conditions dry out a bit more on Wednesday with high temps rebounding back into the 50s and 60s. Winds will be light so fire weather concerns are low at this time. By Thursday high pressure departs to the east and we will get southerly return flow streaming back into the region. High temps will continue to climb back into the upper 60s with cooler conditions expected by Lake Superior. Friday-Weekend: An upper level trough is still expected to move across the Northern Plains to end the work week bringing rain chances back to the Northland. Timing of this has been slowed down when compared to previous model runs with 20-30% PoPs now entering Friday afternoon. This will also prompt the return of southwest flow aloft leading to a warming trend. Weekend temperatures in the 70s and some 80s possible with cooler by the Lake still in play. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and storms are moving through the Northland. Lightning is becoming more and more scarce as we lose forcing to sustain thunderstorms. However, the last line of storms will make their way through DLH in the next couple hours, and will move through HYR later on as well. INL and HIB will continue to see showers for the next few hours as well. Northwest flow and cold air advection will lead to some scattered showers throughout the afternoon. Air near the surface will be dry, so these will struggle to reach the ground. So, have included VCSH at all affected terminals for now. Northwest winds will increase this morning and reach up to 15 kts throughout the afternoon. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior today. Northwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots expected across most zones through the afternoon. A few lingering showers are possible early this morning before diminishing. Wave heights will generally range from 2 to 4 feet today, occasionally reaching up to 7 feet in the outer Apostle Islands, before subsiding to 1 to 3 feet by late afternoon and evening. Winds become lighter on Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Cloudy conditions and scattered showers continue early this morning, keeping minimum relative humidity values high today. As cold air moves in today, we will see gusty northwest winds and afternoon sprinkles. Wednesday brings a dry day with light winds as high pressure moves in. Critical fire weather concerns increase for Thursday, which features the greatest chance for low relative humidity dropping to 25 percent along with gusty southerly winds up to 20 mph. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>143. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LSZ144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for LSZ146- 147. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148- 150. && $$ UPDATE...KML DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML FIRE WEATHER...KML  163 FXUS63 KDMX 190720 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 220 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much cooler today through the end of the week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures tonight reach the mid to upper 30s in northern Iowa with patchy frost possible there. - Rain chances return late Thursday into Friday. -Warming trend this weekend with 80s returning by Sunday through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The surface low continues to move east across the area with associated rain pushing into eastern Iowa early this morning. While the bulk of the rainfall has come to an end, some wrap around light sprinkles may be possible in northern Iowa through today as the low continues to slide east. Today will be markedly cooler as much cooler air filters in behind the cold front. Temperatures early this morning are in the mid 40s across northwest Iowa with 50s central and southeast Iowa still in the mid 60s. That cooler air northwest will continue to spread across the state today and highs will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will also be brisk out of the northwest at 20-30 mph owed to a modestly enhanced pressure gradient across the area from the departing low and incoming high pressure, along with subsidence and cold air advection. Skies clear through the day as high pressure settles across the state. Will clear skies and light wind overnight temperatures are expected to fall off quickly overnight. Low temperatures in northern Iowa will fall to the mid to upper 30s which may result in patchy frost, which would impact those with sensitive plants. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By Tuesday evening a large surface high pressure area will be building down the northern High Plains and on Tuesday night will settle across Iowa and Minnesota. This will lead to rapidly diminishing winds around sunset Tuesday and much cooler temperatures Tuesday night as winds go light or calm and skies clear out, especially near the Minnesota border closer to the center of the high and where chances for high cirrus clouds are lowest. The result is forecast low temperatures early Wednesday morning in the mid-to- upper 30s in our northern and western counties, but any frost potential will be dependent on skies remaining clear and winds becoming calm. This possibility will be better assessed tonight and tomorrow. From Wednesday through the end of this week a weak 500 MB low will meander across southwestern Canada, with cyclonic flow extending down across the U.S. Rockies and near Iowa. A series of shortwave impulses moving through the flow will result in a return of rain chances for our forecast area. Initially, on Wednesday, the proximity of the slowly departing surface high pressure area and associated dry air will inhibit any precipitation chances. By Thursday atmospheric moisture and instability will be gradually increasing however, and around Thursday night and Friday the most pronounced 500 MB trough will move overhead and bring higher rain chances (50-70%). In wake of that trough, next weekend, weak subsidence may follow along with weak surface riding, supporting mostly dry weather and much lower rain chances (10-20%). Also of note is a consistent signal for some degree of thermal ridging around Sunday into early next week, especially from the EC and GEM, lending confidence to warmer temperatures at the end of the current 7-day forecast. Climate Prediction Center outlooks also support a likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures heading into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Precipitation is shifting east of the TAF sites with MVFR to IFR stratus settling across the area. A few pockets of LIFR ceilings are possible through this morning. Stratus will last into the afternoon with gradual improvement as coverage diminishes. Winds will also shift to out of the northwest and become breezy with gusts of 20-25+ kts today. Skies clear and winds diminish by 00z. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ081>083-092>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff LONG TERM...Lee AVIATION...Hagenhoff  275 FXUS63 KLMK 190723 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 323 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A line of strong to severe storms is expected to develop ahead of an approaching cold front today. These storms may bring strong gusty winds and marginally severe hail in areas generally west of I-65. * More active weather arrive later this week as multiple rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible going into Memorial Day weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Area radars show that earlier convection continues to diminish across the region. In its wake, partly to mostly cloudy skies were noted across the region. Temperatures were generally in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. A few mid 70s were noted down in far southern Kentucky. For the remainder of the overnight period, generally quiet weather is expected. We could see a few light rain showers transverse southern Kentucky over the next few hours. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. For today, the upper level pattern will start off in a trough in the western CONUS with a ridge centered off the southeast coast. From the southern Plains through the Ohio Valley, a broad southwest flow will be seen. Within this broad southwest flow, a shortwave trough axis and associated 75-85kt h5 jet streak will move into the upper Midwest/western Great Lakes. A surface low will move into southern Ontario with a stretched out cold front extending southwestward through the Mid-MS Valley. Ahead of this front, warm advection within the broad southwest flow combined with partly sunny skies will allow surface temperatures to warm into the upper 80s with a few spots touching 90 again. It will fell humid out there today as dewpoints will remain in the mid-upper 60s. This combination of temps and dewpoints will allow surface based instability to develop with SBCAPE values rising into the 2500- 3000 J/kg range. While instability will be plentiful for strong/severe convection, environmental wind fields are not impressive as bulk shear values will remain in the 20-25kt range with higher values off to our west. Enough instability and shear will be available to generate organized convection along the cold front. Based on model soundings and the instability/shear profile, the forecast soundings support mainly multicellular convection that may be able to grow upscale into small linear segments capable of producing damaging winds. Convection looks to move into our western areas later this afternoon/evening. However, the storms are likely to outrun the instability/shear axis out to the west and weaken as they cross the I-65 corridor and head into the Bluegrass region. The highest risk of severe will be generally west of the I-65 corridor where damaging wind gusts look to be the main threat. Some isolated marginally severe hail may occur in some of the stronger cores early in the convective cycle. However, the severe threat will rapidly diminish after sunset with the loss of heating and the better synoptic forcing remain well displace from our region. The surface cold front will push into the region overnight and slowly stall out. While there will be some diminishing of convective coverage overnight, at least scattered shower/storms will linger into the early part of the overnight hours. Lows are expected to drop back into the mid-upper 60s. For Wednesday, surface frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity throughout the day providing a focus for renewed convective development. Overall convective coverage may be slightly higher across our eastern areas. Model soundings again show marginal instability (likely limited by ongoing cloud cover) and weak shear. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail could occur in some of the stronger cores. However, greater instability and better lapse rates will be found to our east across the Mid-Atlantic region. Highs on Wednesday will be cooler with temps remaining in the mid-upper 70s west of I-65 with upper 70s/lower 80s east of I-65. Lingering convection will be possible into the early part of Wednesday night before diminishing. Lows will be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 323 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 For the long term period, it appears that the aforementioned cold front from the short term period will gradually sink to the south for the LMK CWA and yield a slightly drier pattern for Thursday. Blended PoPs look too high here and are probably being help up by the spatial differences in the model fields. Best chances of any shower/storm activity would be across southern and southeastern KY. Highs will be cooler here with readings in the lower-mid 70s. Lows Thursday night will drop back into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Looking into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend, stalled out frontal boundary to the south looks to lift northward on Friday. An approaching mid-level perturbation within an increasing southwesterly flow pattern will lead widespread showers and storms across the region for Friday. Overall risk of severe looks fairly marginal here given poor low-mid level lapse rates and weak shear. Highs on Friday look to warm into the upper 70s and the lower 80s. Overnight lows will be will be in the mid-upper 60s. Moving into the Sat-Mon period, a southwest flow pattern will remain in place across the Ohio Valley with multiple perturbations moving through within the mean flow aloft. This will lead to episodic bouts of showers and storms through the period. Afternoon highs will likely top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. Given the rather moist airmass that is expected to be in place this weekend, bouts of heavy rainfall will be possible. Total rainfall amounts over the next 7 days across the region will vary, but a swath of 3-4 inch rainfall with locally higher amounts look possible. This rainfall will be beneficial given the recent dryness across the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 112 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Earlier convection over southern Indiana has continued to wind down early this morning. For the overnight period, VFR conditions are expected across the region. Winds will generally be out of the northeast, but will veer around to the southeast and eventually to the south toward dawn. For the daytime hours, a cold front will approach the region from the west. Ahead of this feature, gusty southwest winds will be seen across the region. Southwest winds of 10-15kts with gusts of 20-24kts are expected from roughly 19/14- 19/23Z. Scattered convection may move into the western portions of the area after 20/00Z. For this reason, will keep the PROB30's going at the end of the period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM....MJ AVIATION.....MJ  231 FXUS63 KMPX 190721 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 221 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of frost overnight, especially across west-central Minnesota - Seasonably cool & dry weather persist through mid-week. - Shower & thunderstorm chances return Friday through the Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A band of light showers/drizzle continues to move eastwards across eastern Minnesota &western Wisconsin, with precipitation expected to end around sunrise across the area. A very cool day more typical of March or October is in store as widespread cloud cover & persistent cold advection limits temperatures to the upper 40s & low 50s this afternoon. Isolated diurnally- driven rain showers are also expected to develop by mid- afternoon but any rain from these will be brief & negligible. Clouds are expected to clear out after sunset & winds go calm as high pressure slides over the region, creating ideal conditions for radiational cooling overnight. We likely won't maximize our cooling potential owing to the wet ground & moist boundary layer from the recent rains, but temperatures are expected to fall into the 30s across most of Minnesota 7 low 40s across western Wisconsin. Just how low temperatures could fall still remains in question, but conditions look favorable for at least patchy frost to develop across much of the region, especially in rural & low-lying areas. The coldest temperatures in the mid 30s are expected across west-central Minnesota, & we'll have to monitor forecast trends today to see if any areas are at risk for a freeze overnight. Temperatures rebound nicely Wednesday with mostly clear skies warming temperatures back into the 60s. We'll stay seasonably cool & dry into Friday, but our next chance for precipitation comes Friday into Saturday morning as deterministic & ensemble solutions all develop a shortwave tracking along the US-canada border. AI convective outlooks show very low probabilities for any severe weather with this disturbance, so we're just expecting another round of typical Spring showers & thunderstorms. Solutions vary somewhat on precipitation chances through the rest of the Memorial day weekend, but at least another round of showers & thunderstorms looks likely over the later part of the weekend - most likely Monday. So we'll see some rain chances over the holiday weekend but no a washout by any means. Temperatures likely stay on the cool side of normal with the rain chances Saturday, but could warm into the 80s for Sunday & Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 109 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers continue to make their way gradually to the northeast. AXN, RWF, STC should remain dry for the rest of the night while RNH and EAU should be clear by 10-12z. Cigs will be slow to improve today. All sites will start out in either IFR/LIFR categories prior to sunrise and then increasing to MVFR by 13-15z timeframe. As of now, cigs look to not return to low VFR until 23- 00z this evening. Winds will continue to be breezy today out of the NW at or about 15kts with gusts between 20-25kts before decreasing this evening. KMSP...Light rain showers expected to clear MSP by 09z. IFR cigs expected to linger for the rest of the night but should return back into low MVFR by about 15z. Winds will prevail out of the NW at or about 15kts with gusts between 20-25kts for much of today. Winds decrease this evening with low VFR cigs returning around 02z timeframe. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts, shifting to SE. THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Dunleavy  283 FXUS66 KMFR 190723 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1223 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .DISCUSSION...Upper level ridging will remain over the northeastern Pacific, just offshore of the West Coast, throughout the week. A few impulses are expected to ride up and over the ridge, keeping the impacts well to our north up in Washington and British Columbia, keeping southern Oregon and far northern California dry and warm. Meanwhile, a thermal trough will remain along the southwest coast, keeping temperatures in the Brookings area on the warm side, and producing daily afternoon breezes across the region. As we maintain the dry airmass and breezy afternoons, there will be at least an elevated threat for fire weather conditions each day. However, fuel conditions per fire agencies reveal the overall fire weather threat will remain low to moderate. Given the low RH values and breezy winds each afternoon, people should exercise caution with any outdoor activities that could cause sparks or flames. Bottom line is that fire season was declared early this year, so these precautionary actions should already be in place, but its especially important when we have these elevated fire weather days. Looking ahead, there are indications that the ridge will begin to break down this weekend, with the potential for a more robust trough to enter the Pacific Northwest around Memorial Day that could bring precipitation chances and cooler temperatures to the forecast area. Model suites are not in solid agreement with this scenario, with several differences in both timing and strength, so confidence is low. This will warrant a close eye for those with plans for the Memorial Day holiday. && .AVIATION...19/12Z TAFs... There could be localized areas of LIFR/IFR in fog/low clouds near the coast or in the coastal valleys this morning as models are showing a stratus layer very close to the coast tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE...Updated 1200 AM PDT Tuesday, May 19, 2026...A thermal trough will bring gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas over the coastal waters much of this week. Winds will be strongest and seas will be highest during the afternoons/evenings. Through this stretch, very steep seas of 10-12 ft are most likely south of Cape Blanco with steep seas (6-9 ft) north of Cape Blanco. Ensembles indicate winds will strengthen Wednesday through Friday with a potential (35-55% chance) for gales (gusts) across portions of the southern waters, especially from around Gold Beach south. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370. && $$  416 FXUS64 KMAF 190727 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 227 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 222 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Summer-like heat expected through today, mainly for Big Bend and along the Rio Grande where highs are expected to reach into the low to mid 100s. - Strong to severe storms will be possible today for areas generally east and south of Midland/Odessa. Main threats will include large hail, damaging winds, and lightning. - Strong to severe storms are expected once again on Wednesday where large hail, damaging winds will be threats as well as localized flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front is currently making its way southward across the Texas Panhandle and will make to the region within the next few to several hours. There remains some uncertainty with just how far south this front will make it into the area. Should it stall out over the northern Permian Basin, there will be a better chance at showers and storms developing east of the dryline that has setup just to the east of the city of Pecos. Should the front make it further south before stalling, storms may be confined to the Lower Trans Pecos or portions of Big Bend. No matter where storms develop, they will be capable of being strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards in addition to brief heavy rainfall and lightning. Forecast highs will also be uncertain as they will depend on where the front ends up. Areas south of the front will once again reach into the 90s. Behind the front, much cooler air will move in where highs may not reach 80F. By tonight, the front washes out and the dryline establishes itself once again over the western half of the CWA. Low level moisture is pulled westward with the dryline and an upper level disturbance makes its way in from the west. In addition to the upper level support, forecast PWATs move to between 1-1.3" east of the dryline. Climatologically, this would rank near or above the 90th percentile for May 20th. This spring setup is favorable for strong to severe storms as well as heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding. Rain amounts will be tough to pin down as it will be dependent on how convection develops over the course of the day on Wednesday. A cooler airmass and rain keep it cooler with highs in the 70s and 80s for Wednesday. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Heading into Wednesday evening, daytime convection begins to decay and move to the east out of the region. A lull in activity will be seen through Thursday morning. With the upper level disturbance moving off to the east, rain chances take a hit and will be low (10- 40%) over the course of the day. However, convection from Wednesday will have leftover boundaries and the dryline to aide in some activity developing and becoming strong to severe. Medium to long range guidance keeps this pattern in the area through this coming weekend with each day having a chance for showers and storms to develop. Temperatures see a slight warm up with most locations reaching into the mid to upper 80s, though this would be a few degrees below normal for late May. Overnight lows during this time would be near normal in the upper 50s to low 60s for most. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. However MVFR CIGs are being observed behind a cold front in the Texas Panhandle which could move into the Permian Basin 12-15Z. In addition, haze may redevelop limiting VIS to 4-5SM before the cold front arrives but will keep VIS VFR for this issuance. South to southeast winds shift from the north to northeast behind the front expected 12-16Z. Afternoon TS should remain east of all TAF sites though could affect some local flying operations. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 91 60 77 60 / 40 20 20 80 Carlsbad 94 62 84 59 / 0 10 30 40 Dryden 96 68 87 64 / 30 10 30 90 Fort Stockton 97 65 87 62 / 10 10 20 70 Guadalupe Pass 85 60 80 59 / 0 0 30 40 Hobbs 91 56 75 55 / 0 10 40 60 Marfa 92 53 88 52 / 0 0 40 30 Midland Intl Airport 94 61 78 61 / 10 10 20 70 Odessa 94 62 79 61 / 10 10 30 70 Wink 95 63 83 60 / 0 10 30 60 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...10  609 FXUS63 KSGF 190730 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Moderate Risk (3 out of 4) for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall that may result in flash flooding through early this morning. A Flood Watch in effect for an area north of Interstate 44 towards the Highway 54 corridor. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 4 inches. - A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this morning into the early afternoon. A line of thunderstorms moves through the area, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. - Cooler into mid week, with additional rain chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 This Morning: A strong cold front continues to push through the area early this morning with strong jet dynamics supporting a line of showers and thunderstorms. This line of showers and thunderstorms is slowly dropping southeast into the area, with environment featuring MUCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the vicinity of marginal bulk shear around 30 knots. In general, the line has experienced gradual weakening trends over the last several hours, though a lingering strong to severe thunderstorm threat remains through early this morning. In particular, any line segments that able to punch down with the RIJ and bow out. For this reason, the primary hazard with any strong to severe activity will remain damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat remains very low (2-5%). O-3km shear vectors are oriented to the east- northeast at 30 to 35 knots, though low- level CAPE remains absent. Given this environment, bowing segments that become balanced and/or interact with boundaries may support a brief tornado. The tornado threat will rapidly diminish through mid-morning. SPC continues to highlight the potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with a Slight Risk (2 of 5) this morning into the early afternoon as the line makes it's way through the area with the front. Further attention turns towards an environment still favorable for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. A corridor of 1 to 3 inches, with localized pockets of 4 to 6 inches occurred on Monday along the Highway 54 corridor. This area will be particularly susceptible to flash flooding this morning and remains in Flood Watch through early afternoon. The environment, which features PWATs around 1.5 to 1.7 inches as a strong 40 to 50 knot LLJ overrides the area. Strong low-level moisture convergence continues to amplify deep convection, that has become oriented west-southwest in areas. This orientation of the line will allow for training of thunderstorms to occur over the same areas into early this morning, with efficient rainfall rates approaching 0.5 to 1.0 inch per a hour. As mentioned earlier, a corridor across west central into central MO is well saturated from rainfall on Monday, with 1 hr FFG on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch in locations. 3 hr FFG remains favorable in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Additional localized flash flooding remains plausible outside of the watch as well, especially in urban areas such as Joplin to Springfield. Rainfall amounts through this morning will range from 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts of 3 to 4 inches. WPC highlights a Slight (2 of 4) to Moderate (3 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall for the flash flooding potential this morning. As we progress through the morning into the afternoon, the front and associated line of showers and thunderstorms should make it's way into far southern MO. Most of the CAMs depict a scenario with little to no redevelopment occuring as the front sinks southeast out of the area. While low confidence, the only area to keep an eye on for potential redevelopment would be along the MO/AR border in south central MO/eastern Ozarks. Winds become northerly behind the frontal passage today, with highs varying from upper 60s (northwest) to lower 80s (southeast). Overcast skies linger behind the frontal passage into tonight, with scattered showers and a few elevated non-severe thunderstorms chances. There remains some uncertainty with the true extent of coverage with the post-frtonal activity. Lows fall into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday: Much cooler on Wednesday behind the frontal passage with highs only reaching into the middle to upper 60s. Scattered rain chances (30-60%) linger through Wednesday morning before dissipating. Thursday-Friday: Return flow with the frontal attempting to lift back north into the area on Thursday and Friday will bring increasing PoPs back into the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances approach 60-90% on Thursday into Friday, though the environment remains unfavorable for severe or widespread flooding. Localized flooding will need to be closely watched given antecedent conditions from early week precipitation. Meanwhile, gradual increasing mid-level heights will support a warming trend as highs return into the 70s late week. This Weekend: Broad southwest flow persists into the weekend, with embedded waves of energy translating through the flow. Persistent rain chances (20-40%) linger through the weekend, with uncertainty in the exact timing and extent of coverage. Highs push back into the upper 70s to lower 80s, right around average for mid to late May. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 A line of thunderstorms currently over Kansas will shift into the area tonight into Tuesday morning. Strong to severe storms are possible with this activity. A cold front will move through on Tuesday, bringing MVFR to possibly IFR conditions. Confidence in forecast values decreases with time due to uncertainty related to convective evolution. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ073. MO...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071- 078>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Titus  165 FXUS63 KLBF 190738 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 238 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning in effect Tuesday morning. - Dry and cooler through Wednesday when light rain showers return to portions of western Nebraska. - Temperatures will steadily climb day-over-day through the weekend, with a return to 70s and 80s likely by Saturday/Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures will become cold tonight with lows well below normal. Normal lows are in the mid 40s to upper 40s. Overnight lows will be around 10 to 15 degrees colder than normal lows with temperatures in the 30s. Confidence was greatest in temperatures below freezing for areas across western Nebraska, generally west of HWY 61. For areas east of HWY 61, there still remains lower confidence in temperatures dipping below the freezing mark. Latest models have remained consistent in the low cloud deck sticking around all through the overnight and morning. Cloud coverage are expected to keep temperatures from plummeting below freezing and probabilities of temperatures dropping below freezing levels are around 10 percent leading to higher confidence temperatures will not reach a hard freeze east of HWY 61, thus decided to keep the frost advisory going for this area, instead of upgrading to a freeze warning as lows will hover just above freezing. Cooler airmass and northerly winds will keep cooler temperatures for Tuesday with highs remaining well below normal. Temperatures will struggle to reach the low 60s across the southern Sandhills into southwest Nebraska and will be even cooler across the northern Sandhills with highs in the upper 50s. A front will move northward into portions of southwest Nebraska Wednesday. This area will become the focus for some lift in the area that could lead to a slight chance of rain shower, mainly along and west of HWY 83 across southwest Nebraska where moisture is greater. At this time any rainfall that does occur will remain light, with only around a tenth or less expected. Temperatures on Wednesday will still remain below normal with highs mostly in the mid to upper 50s across most of western Nebraska and the Sandhills. North central Nebraska will be slightly warmer, however temperatures will struggle to reach the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday Night...Precipitation chances will persist into Wednesday evening within return southerly flow behind departing high pressure. A subtle shortwave will cross western Kansas/Nebraska with continued warm air advection feeding light rain chances. NBM maintains appreciable QPF probabilities, with 30-45% potential for seeing 0.25" or more south of a Hayes Center to Brady line. Instability is sorely lacking during this time, so rain should occur largely without thunder. Even with precipitation potential and increasing clouds, a fairly cool night is expected with lows falling into the middle to upper 30s. These values are generally 5-10F below normal for late May. Thursday/Friday...upper troughing will settle south across Wyoming with subsequent height falls overspreading much of the Central High Plains. Increasing lee troughing will promote slightly backed flow resulting in increasing moisture reaching the Front Range. Daytime temperatures will continue to be on the cooler side with highs only reaching the low to middle 60s. NBM median output suggests modest instability developing during the afternoon to our west, with afternoon convection likely to develop along the I-25 corridor. Within strong westerly mid-level flow, showers and thunderstorms should move east into our far western zones towards late evening and persist long enough to reach the Highway 83 corridor. With quickly waning instability, the threat for any stronger storms appears low. Thursday night low temperatures should settle into the lower 40s which will be closer to seasonal norms though continuing to be slightly below normal. By early Friday, the main trough aloft should begin to eject out of southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado. A surface cool front will settle into our western zones and this coincident with the passing trough axis should herald the end to precipitation chances. NBM suggests rainfall will favor the morning hours with decreasing probabilities after daybreak. Beneficial rainfall appears possible with > 50% probabilities for exceeding 0.50" of rain south of I-80. Decreasing the threshold to > 0.10" shows 50%+ for all locations southeast of a Cody to Brownlee to Bartlett line. While certainly not a drought buster, incremental progress in catching up on the moisture deficit is certainly welcomed. Even with the approaching front and persistent clouds/precipitation, temperatures on Friday should continue the steady climb from the previous few days. Afternoon highs are progged to reach the low to middle 60s for most and upper 60s for our far southern zones. This appears to be the final day of widespread below normal temperatures within the forecast period. This weekend and beyond...upper troughing will quickly lift north into Canada with broad positive height anomalies overspreading much of CONUS. Low-amplitude ridging will establish itself across the Great Basin by early next week. This will lead to continued warming temperatures and daytime highs making a return to 80s and potentially the lower 90s to start next week. Upper ridging does not appear to be overly strong so concerns for any anomalous heat wave remains low. Troughing should approach the Pacific Northwest sometime around Monday/Tuesday. This should effective quell the upper-ridging and return the area to more favorable southwesterly flow around Days 7-8. Because of this, precipitation potential should remain fairly consistent and this aligns with latest CPC Day 6-10 and 8-14 Precipitation outlooks which highlight portions of western Nebraska with a slight lean wetter than normal as we head into June. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Low stratus will continue to hamper aviation operations across western Nebraska through the early morning Tuesday. CIGs will begin to improve after daybreak, initially in the north with a gradual southward push. VFR conditions are then expected through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will favor northwesterly early with sporadic gusts around 20 knots with a shift to more easterly by late in the period with speeds falling to less than 10 knots. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ004-022>024-035-036-056-057-094. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ005-006-008-025-026-037-058-059-069-070. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...NMJ AVIATION...NMJ  333 FXUS63 KIND 190742 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 342 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms and locally heavy rain possible again this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and localized flooding the primary concerns - Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the holiday weekend && .DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)... Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Today and Tonight - Quiet but mostly cloudy conditions are expected early this morning. The rapidly weakening northern extent of a line of showers currently over western Illinois will move into the area this morning and may produce some light rain in spots, though somewhat more substantial rain and thunderstorm chances will wait until later in the day when the cold front approaches the region. Ample instability and modest deep layer shear will exist to promote organization of developing convection this afternoon, and at least a localized severe threat, primarily driven by wind, will exist. This threat will persist into the evening hours when the front pushes through. Hydrologic concerns, particularly given precipitable water values near the top end of climatology and widespread significant rainfall yesterday of 1.5 to 3+ inches, will be at least an equal concern to the severe threat, with flash flood guidance values as low as three quarters of an inch in one hour across central Indiana. HREF probability matched means indicate at least a low chance of reaching these amounts in a few areas through tonight, though perhaps not quite enough for another flood watch. Wednesday through Monday - Once the front has pushed south of the area, it will stall out a bit, though high pressure passing through the Great Lakes in its wake will keep it suppressed to the south and allow for both a brief cooldown and a break in precip chances from late Wednesday into Thursday evening. Rain chances return late week into early next week as a large upper level low swings through the northern tier of the country and pulls a warmer and moist airmass back into the area, though chances with the exception of Friday will be low for the time being given significant model inconsistencies and resulting uncertainty. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Impacts: - Wind gusts Tuesday 20-27KT - Showers and thunderstorms possible late this afternoon into this evening Discussion: Yesterday's convective activity has diminished and cleared the area, and quiet weather is expected most of the rest of the night. Cloud cover should prevent significant fog, though a few patchy areas cannot be ruled out given the ample rainfall. Winds will strengthen as mixing ramps up Tuesday morning, with gusts of 20-27KT likely through the day, generally from 210-230 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in the day as a cold front approaches and passes through the area. Winds with frontal passage will veer to westerly and northwesterly late in the period, with gusts ending in typical diurnal fashion this evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ AVIATION...Nield DISCUSSION...Nield  340 FXUS65 KLKN 190743 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1243 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures are trending warmer with highs this afternoon generally in the 60s. * Increasing clouds this afternoon across Elko County, with a 10% chance of thunderstorms up near Jackpot. * Memorial Day Weekend will be warm with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. * Probability of thunderstorms Saturday are trending higher with some models suggesting a 20% chance across Elko county. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1210 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 No changes have been made to the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Quiet weather returns this week as NW flow aloft looks to keep NV dry, allowing for temperatures to warm back into the 80s by the Weekend. Overall weak troughing pattern over the interior Mountain west will keep northwesterly flow aloft over the great basin through next weekend. Monday through Wednesday look to be dry with light to breezy NW winds. Thursday a quick moving upper trough will ride the NW flow, bringing a wind shift line through Nevada, but models keep this system far enough to the NE that only the far NE Elko county could see a 10% chance for a light shower Thursday afternoon, this front will stall across central NV and this may be enough to generate a isolated shower for the mountains of N Nye county Friday. After Friday dry conditions return for the weekend lasting through Memorial Day. The main story this week will be the temperatures as the cold air mass left in the wake of Sundays storm system begins to modify and warm. Highs will start cool in the upper 50s to upper 60s Monday afternoon and warm through the week back into the mid 70s to mid 80s by Friday afternoon. Lows will gradually warm as well starting in the low 20s to low 30s Tuesday morning the rising back into the mid 40s to mid 50s by the Saturday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is moderate confidence for quiet, dry weather conditions with warming temperatures lasting through the Holiday weekend. There is low confidence (5-10% chance) for isolated thunderstorms across NE Elko county both this afternoon and again on Wednesday. Thursday afternoon there is low confidence (10-15% chance) of thunderstorms across Northern Nye and White Pine counties. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at all TAF terminals today and Wednesday with winds generally 5 to 10 mph gusting to 15 mph each afternoon. KEKO remains AMD NOT SKED due to communication disruption. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...96  562 FXUS66 KOTX 190745 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1245 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily northeastern WA and North Idaho Tuesday afternoon. - Conditions trend drier and warmer through the workweek regionwide, with periodic breezy winds for the Cascades and central WA. - Potential cooling trend into early next week with chances for precipitation and breezy conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Showers with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will continue Tuesday. Precipitation chances decrease and afternoon highs trend warmer through the workweek, climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday and continuing through next weekend. Breezy winds are expected at times through the Cascade gaps and across the western Columbia Basin. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday: A warming and drying trend will commence through the week for the Inland Northwest as strong high pressure off the coast blocks the region from systems approaching from the west. Temperatures will increase from the 60s and 70s to the 70s and 80s by Friday. There will be another round of showers with very isolated lightning in the northern half of eastern WA and north ID this afternoon thanks to lingering boundary layer moisture and a weakly unstable airmass. With SBCAPE values around 100-200 J/kg, any shower activity will be fairly weak. The main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 30 mph and very small hail around pea size or less. The best chances for these showers will be between noon to 8 PM today. A shortwave trough currently in the Yukon territory of Canada will drop down into southern Alberta Wednesday afternoon, bringing a backdoor dry cold front to the Inland NW Wednesday afternoon and evening. With this approaching wave, there will be breezy northerly winds gusting up to 30 mph Okanogan Valley. The remainder of the week will be dry with temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s. Sunday through Tuesday: There is good agreement from the global ensemble suite of a trough bringing a cooldown and chances for precipitation by later this weekend and into early next week. There are some question marks on the evolution of this trough but it is a promising sign of more precipitation coming to the INW before our dry season really kicks in. The degree to which we cool down will be dependent on whether we can get the trough overhead to spark convective showers. The coldest 25% of the global ensemble has temperatures at 500 mb around -24 to -31 degrees C by Monday night into Tuesday, similar to the trough that brought cool and showery conditions this past weekend. In the coldest 10% of scenarios, snow levels in the Cascades would drop to around 3500 feet Monday and Tuesday. There is quite a bit of spread with the 90th percentile snow level Monday and Tuesday around 9500 feet. Folks headed out into the high backcountry during this time period will want to keep a close eye on how this trough evolves early next week. This period will need to be monitored for breezy winds as well. /DB && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail. Shower activity will continue in northeast WA and north ID through 9-12z Tuesday. More rounds of showers are expected in far northeast WA and north ID Tuesday afternoon with breezy outflow gusts around 25 kt. Chances for showers are lower for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE around 5-10% Tuesday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions the next 24 hours. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 67 44 71 44 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 65 44 69 43 71 47 / 10 10 0 10 0 0 Pullman 64 43 66 42 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 69 47 72 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 70 39 74 38 76 43 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 65 42 68 41 70 46 / 10 20 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 64 43 67 42 72 46 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 Moses Lake 73 45 78 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 72 50 77 53 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 73 47 77 48 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$  646 FXPQ50 PGUM 190747 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 547 PM ChST Tue May 19 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Isolated showers and partly cloudy skies will linger for the Marianas through the next few days. Combined seas are 6 to 8 feet and a high risk of rip currents is in effect along east-facing reefs until Thursday afternoon. The region may see increasingly wetter conditions over the weekend. && .Discussion... The Marianas remains in a relatively dry trade-wind regime for the next few days. Satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies and isolated showers that look to continue through tonight. A brief period in higher winds is in store for Wednesday as easterly wind speeds will be between 15 and 20 miles per hour with occasional gusts up to 30 miles per hour. As we enter the latter half of the week, overall conditions may start to shift on Thursday. Model guidance shows a slight decrease in trade winds and an increase from isolated to low-end scattered showers until the weekend. There is still support from the models for a wetter period starting this weekend through early next week, so chances of showers were adjusted higher to reflect that trend. A slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast as models continue to depict either a surface trough or a potential disturbance originating in central Micronesia and shifting northwest, possibly impacting the Marianas beyond Memorial Day. This will continue to be monitored and communicated throughout the next several days. && .Marine... Combined seas of 6 to 8 feet are expected to remain through Thursday afternoon. Buoy data continues to support swells capable of producing surf up to 9 feet, and model guidance depicts little changes in the sea state for the next few days, so the high risk of rip currents along east-facing reefs is in effect until Thursday afternoon. Current model guidance shows wave heights to gradually decrease by a foot or two starting Thursday afternoon and continuing through the weekend. && .Eastern Micronesia... An increasingly unsettled, but disorganized pattern continues to build across the region. An Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) extends eastward across Pohnpei and Kosrae States from over central Micronesia, interacting with trade-wind troughs centered just west of Pohnpei, west of Kosrae, and with a very broad upper-level low located far to the north-northeast. Farther east, another ITCZ fragment builds just east of the Marshall Islands with a trade-wind trough propagating westward along it. These features are producing areas of numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms within eastern Micronesia. Pohnpei and Kosrae are situated on the northern periphery of the showers and thunderstorms associated with the ITCZ to the south, and Majuro sits along the very western edge of the advancing trough, ITCZ fragment, and associated convection. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, with locally heavy rainfall possible at times, are expected for all three forecast zones for tonight, remaining numerous for Pohnpei and Kosrae through at least Wednesday, but tapering to scattered for Majuro for the next day or so. Models continue to be aggressive in depicting a very wet pattern throughout the week, and showers will likely increase to become widespread from time to time over the next few days, with little certainty in exact timing. The upper-level low north-northeast of the region is expected to remain semi-stationary as it weakens, extending westward as an open trough over the next few days. Despite weakening, the trough's position and orientation look to maintain good upper-level support for showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern Micronesia, mainly over Pohnpei and Kosrae States this week. Meanwhile, the ITCZ to the south looks to fragment and shift westward, helping to form a broad, disorganized disturbance across central Micronesia. Strong convergence upstream of this disturbance, with decent upper-level support, looks to maintain at least scattered showers across the region through the latter half of the week. Benign marine conditions are expected through the week. Latest altimetry data indicates combined seas between 6 and 7 feet across much of the region. Models depict a very gradual relaxation of the east to northeast trade swell throughout the week, allowing seas to diminish by a foot or so over the next several days. && .Western Micronesia... Satellite observations show scattered showers over Yap and Chuuk with isolated showers over Palau. Altimetry data shows combined seas between 4 and 7 feet. The robust convection that moved over Yap today has begun to wane, but scattered showers are still occurring beneath the warming cirrus. Across Chuuk State including Weno, scattered showers are seen from trade-wind convergence residing over the region. An active weather pattern will setup across much of western Micronesia over the next week. A monsoon-like trough is developing south of Palau and will intensify through the week. Eventually, this looks to become a full fledged monsoon trough this weekend or early next week. This monsoon- like or monsoon trough is expected to interact with a tropical disturbance as well. The combination of these two features will bring unsettled weather, beginning across Chuuk on Wednesday and then eastern Yap State this weekend and into next week. Uncertainty remains high with guidance split on whether there will be a northward pull of moisture, or if we'll see a more westward push. The former scenario would delay active weather for Yap Proper and Palau, but would keep them in westerly flow as the monsoon tail forms, placing a train of showers and thunderstorms over them. The latter scenario would shift the bulk of the disturbance over Yap and Palau, but would also exit the region faster. Currently, both the ECMWF and GFS deterministic favor scenario one with their respective ensembles closer to scenario one but more in the middle. The Canadian (CMC) and it's ensembles favor scenario two more. For now, the forecast tries to remain in the middle of these scenarios. Combined seas are between 4 and 7 feet across western Micronesia. On a broader scale, combined seas are expected to fall this week as winds begin to weaken due to trade-winds to the north and strong westerlies to the south; with the islands caught in between within a lull. Seas could become elevated across Yap and Palau late in the forecast period as the potential monsoon trough builds into the region. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for GUZ001. MP...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for MPZ001>003. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Mesa East Micronesia: DeCou West Micronesia: Williams  650 FXUS62 KMHX 190747 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 347 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased temps Thursday with frontal passage trending later. Updated aviation discussion for 19/06Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dense fog possible for the morning commute today for parts of eastern NC 2) Above normal to near- record high temperatures and rain- free conditions to continue Wednesday. 3) A frontal system approaches the area Thursday, bringing the next appreciable chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Days of moisture advection has resulted in dewpoints around 70F across eastern NC. High pressure centered offshore is keeping winds light to calm across SW portions of the CWA, with decoupling allowing for the near surface layer to reach saturation. Already fog and low stratus obs have been observed in parts of Duplin and Onslow counties, and getting confirmation on satellite as well in the past half hour. Expecting fog and low stratus to slowly creep north and east to areas that experience light to calm winds. SPS or Dense Fog Advisory may be necessary near sunrise today. Conditions should rapidly improve by 9AM as strong daytime heating scours out any fog/low stratus. KEY MESSAGE 2...Notably warm low-level thicknesses beneath an anomalous mid-upper level ridging will continue to support above to well above normal temperatures across the Carolinas through Wednesday. Guidance shows similar low-level thicknesses each afternoon yielding highs generally in the lower 90s across the coastal plain but some warmer spots may reach mid 90s, remaining just shy of records. It will be closest across the coastal plain, however. Additionally, despite increasing low-level moisture, ridging aloft should provide sufficient subsidence to suppress convective activity outside of perhaps a rogue shower or thunderstorm where convergence is maximized along the seabreeze. Still, probs of this occuring are low enough to keep out of the forecast with this update. KEY MESSAGE 3...The mid-upper level ridge is forecast to break down some late-week and into the weekend. This should allow a front to drop south Thursday into Friday as it encounters the persistent ridging that has been over the region for much of the past week. Confidence is increasing on the front reaching our CWA, with the most likely outcome being the front briefly stalling between the NC/SC border and Cape Hatteras. Once the high to the north shifts offshore this weekend and ridging strengthens again to our south, the warm front will get clearance to shift back north. The front has trended a bit slower to reach the CWA with this update. As a result, we are forecast to have enough residence time of warm southerly flow Thursday morning and afternoon ahead of the front to see high temps in the upper 80s to near 90 inland. Increasing moisture and instability along the frontal zone should support an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. Probabilistic guidance shows a solid chance of 0.25"- 0.75" each day. However, it should be noted that those amounts will be highly dependent on the evolution of the frontal zone. Initially when the front drops into the area, there may be just enough flow aloft to support some thunderstorm organization. Model soundings show steep low level lapse rates and weak turning of low level winds ahead of the frontal passage Thursday and Saturday. A layer of dry air aloft could inhibit deep convection, but if updrafts are able to break through this, DCAPEs of 600-1000 J/kg could support a risk of strong to marginally severe winds. On the flip side, upper level dynamics and deep shear look unimpressive and could inhibit organized tstorms. This setup will be something to monitor the day of, with the later frontal passage timing allowing for greater instability Thursday. Friday, lower surface temps keep low level lapse rates more muted, and as a result a severe risk isn't present. Machine learning and analog guidance support the potential for strong to severe tstorms Thursday and Saturday as well. Notably high PWATs along the frontal zone should support higher rainfall rates in convection. However, notable hydro impacts are not expected due to the recent dry stretch and ongoing drought conditions. While probs are low, if we do see training storms over urban areas like Greenville, Jacksonville, and New Bern, minor flooding impacts could be seen despite the ongoing drought. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Fog and low stratus spreads through parts of eastern NC early this morning, bringing VLIFR to IFR conditions where observed. Best chances are along and south of hwy 70 where there is the highest residence time of light to calm winds. In the 6Z TAFs, I have OAJ, ISO, and EWN with IFR flight cats this morning, with PGV dipping as low as MVFR. Vis and ceilings quickly lift with VFR conditions then forecast after about 12-13Z. Another rinse and repeat day on tap today with mostly clear skies outside of diurnal Cu field and breezy S'rly winds with gusts up to 15-20 kts in the afternoon behind the incoming seabreeze. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, fog and low stratus chances return with another night of light winds and substantial low level moisture. Outlook: A dry seabreeze pattern looks to continue through Wednesday. Beyond then, a frontal boundary sagging south into ENC is expected to bring an increasing risk of SHRA, TSRA, and sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... A summer-like pattern continues through Wednesday, with a daily building of winds to 10-20kt each afternoon and evening as the thermal gradient tightens. This will especially be the case for the inland rivers and sounds and the nearby coastal waters within 20nm of the coast. Seas will continue around 2-3ft, potentially up to 4 ft during the afternoon and evening. Outlook: A frontal boundary is forecast to sag south into the area Thursday, then meander around the area through the upcoming weekend. This leads to lower confidence regarding winds and seas, but especially wind direction. In general, the risk of 25kt+ winds appears low during this time ahead of the front, with slightly higher chances of seeing 25+kt gusts behind the front. There will be an increased risk of thunderstorms in the region Thursday through Sunday as well. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SK/RJ AVIATION...RJ MARINE...SK/RJ  685 FXUS63 KARX 190748 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 248 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and dry through midweek with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. - Patchy to areas of frost possible in north-central and central Wisconsin tonight and Wednesday night. - Periodic shower and storms chances from Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and Storms Through Early This Morning Showers and storms continue ahead a cold front that will move through in the early morning hours. With the better instability and low-level shear to our south, not much if any severe weather is expected. Some gusty winds and small hail will be the main threats. There looks to be a small break in between the storms ahead of the cold front and the cold front itself, which would have a line of light to moderate rain moving through the forecast area between 09 and 14Z. Cooler and Dry for the Rest of Today Through Thursday After the cold front moves through, surface high pressure builds in and remains over the area through Thursday. This will keep the CWA under dry conditions and with the Upper Midwest on the edge of a longwave trough, temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night get down into the upper 30s to potentially the mid 30s for portions of Clark and Taylor counties. There could be some patchy areas of frost with these low temperatures. There is a shortwave that pushes north from the Plains into the Upper Midwest, however uncertainty exists on if we get any precipitation from it. Currently the LREF gives a 30 to 50% chance for measurable rainfall to occur. Periodic Shower and Storm Chances From Friday into Early Next Week Deterministic and ensemble forecasts both favor the upper-level pattern remaining in the zonal to southwest flow. During this same time period there are a few disturbances that move into the Upper Midwest that increase precipitation chances. Heading into early next week, temperatures warm back up into the low 80s as some southwest flow returns. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Strong winds in the wake of exiting precipitation will shift east, gusting 40kt at KLSE at 19.06Z TAF issuance. MVFR-IFR ceilings seen over central Minnesota shift southeast into the area overnight, affecting both KLSE and KRST TAF sites. Aviation impacts lift through Tuesday morning and afternoon with scattered showers and strong northwest winds. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...JAR  680 FXUS63 KSGF 190748 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 248 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Moderate Risk (3 out of 4) for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall that may result in flash flooding through early this morning. A Flood Watch in effect for an area north of Interstate 44 towards the Highway 54 corridor. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 4 inches. - A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this morning into the early afternoon. A line of thunderstorms moves through the area, with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. - Cooler into mid week, with additional rain chances (60-90%) on Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 This Morning: A strong cold front continues to push through the area early this morning with strong jet dynamics supporting a line of showers and thunderstorms. This line of showers and thunderstorms is slowly dropping southeast into the area, with environment featuring MUCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the vicinity of marginal bulk shear around 30 knots. In general, the line has experienced gradual weakening trends over the last several hours, though a lingering strong to severe thunderstorm threat remains through early this morning. In particular, any line segments that able to punch down with the RIJ and bow out. For this reason, the primary hazard with any strong to severe activity will remain damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat remains very low (2-5%). O-3km shear vectors are oriented to the east- northeast at 30 to 35 knots, though low- level CAPE remains absent. Given this environment, bowing segments that become balanced and/or interact with boundaries may support a brief tornado. The tornado threat will rapidly diminish through mid-morning. SPC continues to highlight the potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with a Slight Risk (2 of 5) this morning into the early afternoon as the line makes it's way through the area with the front. Further attention turns towards an environment still favorable for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. A corridor of 1 to 3 inches, with localized pockets of 4 to 6 inches occurred on Monday along the Highway 54 corridor. This area will be particularly susceptible to flash flooding this morning and remains in Flood Watch through early afternoon. The environment, which features PWATs around 1.5 to 1.7 inches as a strong 40 to 50 knot LLJ overrides the area. Strong low-level moisture convergence continues to amplify deep convection, that has become oriented west-southwest in areas. This orientation of the line will allow for training of thunderstorms to occur over the same areas into early this morning, with efficient rainfall rates approaching 0.5 to 1.0 inch per a hour. As mentioned earlier, a corridor across west central into central MO is well saturated from rainfall on Monday, with 1 hr FFG on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch in locations. 3 hr FFG remains favorable in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Additional localized flash flooding remains plausible outside of the watch as well, especially in urban areas such as Joplin to Springfield. Rainfall amounts through this morning will range from 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts of 3 to 4 inches. WPC highlights a Slight (2 of 4) to Moderate (3 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall for the flash flooding potential this morning. As we progress through the morning into the afternoon, the front and associated line of showers and thunderstorms should make it's way into far southern MO. Most of the CAMs depict a scenario with little to no redevelopment occuring as the front sinks southeast out of the area. While low confidence, the only area to keep an eye on for potential redevelopment would be along the MO/AR border in south central MO/eastern Ozarks. Winds become northerly behind the frontal passage today, with highs varying from upper 60s (northwest) to lower 80s (southeast). Overcast skies linger behind the frontal passage into tonight, with scattered showers and a few elevated non-severe thunderstorms chances. There remains some uncertainty with the true extent of coverage with the post-frtonal activity. Lows fall into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday: Much cooler on Wednesday behind the frontal passage with highs only reaching into the middle to upper 60s. Scattered rain chances (30-60%) linger through Wednesday morning before dissipating. Thursday-Friday: Return flow with the frontal attempting to lift back north into the area on Thursday and Friday will bring increasing PoPs back into the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances approach 60-90% on Thursday into Friday, though the environment remains unfavorable for severe or widespread flooding. Localized flooding will need to be closely watched given antecedent conditions from early week precipitation. Meanwhile, gradual increasing mid-level heights will support a warming trend as highs return into the 70s late week. This Weekend: Broad southwest flow persists into the weekend, with embedded waves of energy translating through the flow. Persistent rain chances (20-40%) linger through the weekend, with uncertainty in the exact timing and extent of coverage. Highs push back into the upper 70s to lower 80s, right around average for mid to late May. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A line of showers and storms will move across the Ozarks during the overnight hours into Tuesday morning. Cloud cover will increase as the storms approach and overtake the regions terminals. Where showers develop and in the wake of storms, MVFR ceilings will prevail with periods of MVFR visibilities in rain. Through around 12z Tuesday, surface winds will be gusty until the storms move part the airfield and winds become northerly. By Tuesday afternoon into the evening, continued cloud cover will bring persistent MVFR ceilings with some IFR ceilings possible by late Tuesday afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ073. MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ055>058- 066>071-078>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Hatch  072 FXUS61 KPHI 190759 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 359 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Hot and more humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. 2. A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and more humid conditions continue, with record setting early season heat probable, through Wednesday. A strong upper-level ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast will remain in place through late this evening before it starts to flatten on its northwest side during Wednesday. This along with surface high pressure anchored in the western Atlantic will drive a south to southwest flow of early season (anomalous) heat across our area into Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to peak into the 90s for many areas again today and Wednesday, except cooler along the coasts and the higher terrain. While the surface dew points will likely mix out some during peak heating due to the drier ground and boundary layer (low evapotranspiration), this stretch of early season heat, with record breaking high temperatures probable, will have potentially greater impacts. The Heat Advisory remains in place across much of the region, including most of the area where the heat index criteria starts at 100F (the urban I-95 corridor criteria starts at 96F through June). While it will probably fall a little short for some areas, the potential greater impacts (lack of acclimation) is driving our decision. Where the wind turns more from the south and especially southeast will result in quite a bit of cooling due to the chilly ocean and therefore did not include the immediate coastal zones in the Heat Advisory. Peak heat indices will be 95 to nearing 100 degrees, with the core of the heat shifting a bit more south and east during Wednesday as a strong cold front starts to arrive. Based on this, portions of the Heat Advisory for areas farther north and west of I-95 only goes through Tuesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will depend on how quickly cloud cover arrives along with showers and some thunderstorms. Either way, we will have a high launching pad for temperatures to start Wednesday and it will still be rather hot. Temperatures at night will be quite warm by mid May standards. Lows will only be in the mid 60s to low 70s, which will challenge daily warmest low temperature records for May 19th. Today will largely be dry as well thanks to the strong ridging overhead. However, a stray shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon and evening with the amount of heat and instability in the low-levels. The most likely location for any storms would be north of I-78 where terrain would aid in forcing for any convection. Shear will be relatively low though (only around 25-30 kts) so little organization is expected with anything that does form. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday through Thursday, then much cooler temperatures by the end of this week. As mentioned above, a cold front will approach the area Wednesday and bring an end to the stretch of above normal temperatures by Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front as it passes through the region. Recent guidance trends continue to show the front moving through during the second half of Wednesday into Wednesday night. Given this timing, there is the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. There remains uncertainty in the more specific details and some timing variations remain. Regarding the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, the cold front will be moving into an air mass that will feature plenty of instability. The better shear and forcing look to be to our north, but bulk shear values will be supportive of some storm organization along with some supportive lapse rates. All of this said, the potential is there for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with the SPC maintaining a Marginal Risk in Wednesday's severe weather outlook. The primary concerns with any strong to severe thunderstorm would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. General rainfall accumulation from this frontal passage looks around 0.25" or less. However, given this convection and PWAT values reaching to 1.5-2.0", localized higher amounts are certainly possible with any heavier pockets of rain. As the front sinks south into Thursday morning, it then looks to linger near or just south of the area through the remainder of the day Thursday. This will lead to the potential for more rain showers, particularly for our southeastern zones. An unsettled pattern looks to continue to take shape for Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning...VFR. South to southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. High confidence. Today...Mainly VFR. Southwesterly winds 5-8 knots increasing to 10-15 knots, with some afternoon gusts up to 20 knots. Can't rule out a stray shower/storm, most likely at KABE, but overall chances are low (15% or less). Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR. Southwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. High confidence. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday...Sub-VFR with rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Rain showers may continue into Thursday. Friday through Saturday...Sub-VFR with rain showers moving through. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory continues for the New Jersey Atlantic coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Though southerly flow will be increasing, a hot air mass will be moving over the chilly water and the vertical mixing will be reduced. However, given the strength of the flow, there should be a period of wind gusts to around 25 knots and seas building to about 5 feet. It looks to be more marginal for the Delaware Atlantic coastal waters and therefore held off on issuing an advisory. For Delaware Bay, the conditions should continue to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Outlook... Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Seas lessen by Wednesday morning but elevated winds out of the southwest remain through the day Wednesday with gusts near 20-25 kt. Rain showers move in Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. There is also the potential for isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night. Thursday...Conditions expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria but showers may linger. Friday through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected as seas reach 4-6 feet. There is the chance for some rain showers. Rip Currents... On Tuesday, south to southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 8 seconds. As a result there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and for Delaware Beaches. Depending on the exact direction of the winds, there is the potential for a HIGH risk for rip currents at the Jersey Shore. On Wednesday, south to southwest winds will be a bit lighter, and winds look to be more parallel to the shores. There will be a southeast swell with a period around 6 seconds. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and lift threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore and a LOW risk for Delaware Beaches. Will continue to note that while surface temperatures inland will be in the mid to upper 90s Tuesday and in the low to mid 90s on Wednesday, temperatures along the coasts will mainly be in the 70s to near 80 due to ocean temperatures in the 50s. These cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .CLIMATE... Near record breaking temperatures are forecast from through Wednesday. High temperatures Tuesday and low temperatures Wednesday morning could challenge monthly all time records for May. Below is a summary of the records broken on Monday, May 18th: Record High Temperatures broken on May 18 Site Record/Year Georgetown (GED) 91/1974 (new record 96) Mount Pocono (MPO) 87/1962 (new record 88) Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 (new record 96) Reading (RDG) 96/1962 (tied record 96) Record Warmest Low Temperature broken on May 18 Site Record/Year Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/2017 (new record 63) Records for our climate sites are listed below: Monthly Record High Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 97/May 19, 1962 AC Airport (ACY) 99/May 29, 1969 AC Marina (55N) 95/May 31, 1895 & May 23, 1925 Georgetown (GED) 98/May 28, 1991 Mount Pocono (MPO) 94/May 22, 1911 Philadelphia (PHL) 97/May 30 & 31, 1991 Reading (RDG) 97/May 20, 1996 Trenton (TTN) 99/May 23, 1911 & May 31, 1986 Wilmington (ILG) 98/May 10, 1895 & May 30, 1895 Monthly Record Warmest Low Temperatures for May Site Record/Date Allentown (ABE) 71/May 31, 1975, May 28 & 31, 1991 AC Airport (ACY) 73/May 24, 2004 & May 19, 2017 AC Marina (55N) 73/May 30 & 31, 1987, & May 31, 1991 Georgetown (GED) 74/May 23, 1953 & May 20, 2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 68/May 21, 1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 78/May 31, 1895 Reading (RDG) 72/May 28 & 31, 1939, & May 31, 1991 Trenton (TTN) 75/May 31, 1895 Wilmington (ILG) 75/May 30, 1895 Record High Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 97/1962 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1962 AC Marina (55N) 92/1998 Georgetown (GED) 96/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1962 Philadelphia (PHL) 96/1962 Reading (RDG) 96/1962 Trenton (TTN) 96/1962 Wilmington (ILG) 95/1962 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 19 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 65/2017 AC Airport (ACY) 73/2017 AC Marina (55N) 68/1998 Georgetown (GED) 73/2017 Mount Pocono (MPO) 60/1943 Philadelphia (PHL) 74/1877 Reading (RDG) 68/1962 Trenton (TTN) 70/2017 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2017 Record High Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 92/1962 & 1996 AC Airport (ACY) 96/1996 AC Marina (55N) 93/1996 Georgetown (GED) 95/1962 Mount Pocono (MPO) 89/1996 Philadelphia (PHL) 94/1962 & 1996 Reading (RDG) 97/1996 Trenton (TTN) 94/1996 Wilmington (ILG) 96/1996 Record Warmest Low Temperatures May 20 Site Record/Year Allentown (ABE) 66/2019 AC Airport (ACY) 68/1996 AC Marina (55N)69/1996 Georgetown (GED) 74/2019 Mount Pocono (MPO) 61/1959 Philadelphia (PHL) 71/2019 Reading (RDG) 69/1959 & 1996 Trenton (TTN) 68/1903, 1959, & 1962 Wilmington (ILG) 70/2019 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ070-071-102-104- 106. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ060>062-101- 103-105. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012-013-015- 017>020-027. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ007>010. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ012>021-026-027. DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450>453. && $$ DISCUSSION...AKL/Gorse/MJL AVIATION...AKL/MJL MARINE...AKL/MJL  084 FXUS65 KRIW 190759 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 159 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cloud cover will continue to decrease leading to widespread sub-freezing temperatures this morning. Fresh snow cover in some areas could allow temperatures to drop into the teens. Freeze Warnings remain in effect. - Conditions will be dry and temperatures rebound Tuesday and Wednesday, but daytime highs remain well below normal. The arrival of another weather system Thursday cools temperatures a few degrees and provides another round of precipitation. - Widespread precipitation is expected Thursday, with upslope areas like Cody and Lander having the best chances for snow accumulation during the day. - Early indications point to a much warmer and dry Memorial Day holiday weekend with widespread 75 to 85 degree daytime highs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Areas of clouds still linger over central and southern portions of the CWA this morning, as expected. Low clouds have developed in the Upper Green River Basin, in the wake of the residual snow that fell through Monday evening. Low clouds/fog is also expected to develop near Pathfinder Reservoir in southern Natrona County as well as far eastern Sweetwater County near Wamsutter and Creston Junction. These clouds are expected to last through mid-morning. Travelers on I-80 and US-189/191 should exercise caution due to the reduced visibility. Otherwise, clouds will continue to scatter out through the rest of the morning with partly cloudy skies by 18Z. There is a 20-30% chance for fog/low clouds to develop in the Wind River Basin and areas near Casper. Cumulus clouds will begin to develop over the western mountains after 18Z, with isolated virga showers possible over northern portions of Yellowstone NP, the Cody Foothills, Hoback Junction and Lander/Fort Washakie. Temperatures will be about 10 to 20 degrees below normal today, with sub-freezing temperatures expected again tonight for most areas except northern portions of the Bighorn Basin. The warming trend continues Wednesday, but temperatures stay below normal for central and southern portions of the CWA. Conditions will be dry for most areas, with showers possible over far northern portions irt the next storm system approaching the Cowboy State from the north. Precipitation chances will be confined to northwestern portions Wednesday night, with snow levels between 7000 and 8000 ft, as the storm drops southward. The associated cold front will drop southward over the CWA through the overnight hours, extending from Buffalo to Kemmerer by sunrise Thursday morning. The front will then slowly push through Natrona and Sweetwater counties through the rest of the day. Most of the precipitation with this storm will occur along and behind of the front, being widespread across the CWA through the day Thursday. Rain could change over to snow along and north of a Meeteetse-to-Lovell line after 15Z, as the cold core from the storm pushes into the Bighorn Basin. The challenge will be if snowfall rates will be heavy enough to overcome the high May sun angle. Otherwise, any snow is likely to stay in grassy areas through the day. There could be a similar change over later in the afternoon at Lander. Both of these locations (mainly Cody and Lander) will have a good upslope component with north- northeast winds. There could be a 3 to 5 hour window for snow accumulation between 23Z and 04Z (5pm to 10pm), as the sun begins to wane in the evening. A leeside low will develop over the Black Hills around this time, generating a line of showers and thunderstorms over western portions of SD and NE. Drier air will quickly push in over western portions of the CWA as the storm movesover the aforementioned areas through the rest of the night into Friday morning. Precipitation will quickly end from west to east after 03Z as a result of the storm becoming better organized over SD/NE. However, precipitation looks to linger over Johnson and Natrona counties through the rest of the night. Rain or a rain/snow mix is likely at this time, with snow levels as low as 6000 ft. Initial snowfall amounts around 6 inches are forecasted over the Absaroka and Wind River Mountains and 6 to 10 inches over the northern half of the Bighorns. Temperatures rebound more quickly on Friday, staying at or slightly below normal as the storm quickly exits over the Plains. A pleasant holiday weekend is shaping up, with highs in the 70s and 80s by Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026 West of the Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals Shortwave energy within a longwave trough traversing Wyoming Monday evening has been responsible for lingering IFR/MVFR light snow at KPNA and KBPI. Current satellite and model trends indicate this activity ends around 08Z/Tuesday with low MVFR cloud decks to persist afterward. There is still a chance of LIFR/IFR fog and low clouds at both terminals, particularly KBPI, until 15Z/Tuesday. There may be similar IFR/MVFR at KRKS during that time, but confidence is low given current model trends. All terminals are VFR after 16Z/Tuesday through the remainder of the period. Enough mid-level moisture and instability is present for cumulus to form over the mountains and drift into the valleys/basins late Tuesday afternoon. A few showers could occur around KJAC, but confidence is low for any impacts. Mountain tops frequently obscured through 16Z/Tuesday. East of the Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals Shortwave energy within a longwave trough traversing Wyoming Monday evening has been responsible for intermittent light snow at KCPR. Given current satellite and model trends, this activity should end before 07Z/Tuesday. There could be a brief period of fog and IFR ceilings at KCPR overnight before increasing southwest wind arrives around 11Z/Tuesday. Other terminals to be VFR through the period, although fog may be in the vicinity of KRIW and KLND shortly after sunrise Tuesday. Enough mid-level moisture and instability is present for cumulus to form over the mountains and drift into the valleys/basins late Tuesday afternoon. A few showers could occur around KCOD and perhaps KLND, but confidence is low for any impacts. Mountain tops frequently obscured through 12Z/Tuesday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for WYZ003>006-010- 011-016>020. && $$ DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...CNJ/LaVoie