702 FXUS63 KLSX 190915 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 415 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this morning with additional rainfall in some locations potentially leading to flash flooding. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early tonight ahead of a cold front. The main hazards are large hail and damaging wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Latest analysis of radar imagery reveals a complex of thunderstorms working its way eastward across the area. Currently (as of 0730z), the leading edge of this activity is pushing into west-central IL, east-central MO, and points southwestward toward Springfield MO. Over the last few hours, this complex has gradually been weakening with eastward extent, with scattered clusters of convection along the leading edge, followed by widespread stratiform rain. Nearly all of this convection is now outflow dominant with a gust front out ahead of the leading edge producing scattered gusts up to 40mph, which has generally been tied closely to the stronger convective clusters. Steepened mid-level lapse rates (8-8.5 degrees C) and a strong 50kt LLJ are both working to keep convection semi-organized along portions of the leading edge. As a result, this complex of thunderstorms will continue to be capable of 30-40mph winds, with gusts near 50mph possible ahead of stronger convective development that percolate throughout the morning. The favorable environment highlighted above for these potential stronger convective segments is generally along and south of the I-70 corridor. As these showers and thunderstorms continue to filter into the area this morning, the threat for flooding will also continue. A majority if the area received 1-2" of rain yesterday with some locations getting 3-5", generally along I-70 and about 50 miles to the south. Locations that experienced these higher end amounts yesterday will be more susceptible to flooding today. In fact, an additional 1-2" within a 3hr period today may be enough to lead to flash flooding for some locations. High resolution guidance varies significantly on the evolution of showers and thunderstorms today, with the general consensus that showers and pockets of thunderstorms gradually wane into the late morning or early afternoon. Given all of the variables mentioned above, the risk of heavy rainfall has prompted us to continue the Flash Flood Watch, which is now in effect until this afternoon. Residents should continue to monitor the latest forecast and be prepared to seek higher ground if a Flash Flood Warning is issued for your area. Latest surface analysis reveals a surface low lifting northeast into WI, with a cold front stretching southwestward into northwest MO. This front is modeled by guidance to gradually slide southeast throughout the morning, approaching northeast MO by late this morning. Ample low-level CAA and thick stratus behind the front will mitigate the severe weather threat in the post-frontal airmass. Uncertainty remains with how quickly the atmosphere will be able to recover this afternoon/evening. Lingering showers and ample clouds will lower the severe risk or push the risk further south, while less showers/clouds would increase the risk and lead to a more widespread severe storm threat this afternoon/evening. Regardless, instability and mid-level flow are still forecast to be sufficient enough to support organized storms with potential for large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Any lingering outflow boundaries from convection this morning may serve as areas of focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon ahead of thecold front. Peine && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Monday) Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Low-level cold air advection along with potential lingering cloud cover, within the post-frontal airmass, will lead to much cooler conditions for Wednesday, with highs forecast to be around 10-15 degrees below average. Quasi-zonal flow aloft encompasses the region through the end of the week, which should allow for a period of dry conditions until Friday. By the end of the week, long-range guidance shows a southern stream shortwave lifting northeast and merging into the downstream end of a northern stream longwave trough near the Great Plains. Low-level flow ahead of these features appears to remain easterly, which would limit moisture return along with rain chances. Regardless, the evolution of these features leads to the return of rain chances Thursday night into Friday, with the LREF 6hr probabilities for accumulated precipitation reaching a widespread 80% on Friday for the area. Chances for precipitation look to remain limited this weekend as probabilities stay below 20% for a majority of the area. A gradual warmup is also forecast as LREF temperature IQRs increase to temperatures right around climatological normals by next week. Peine && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night) Issued at 110 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A weakening complex of thunderstorms is currently pushing eastward into the area, with the leading edge of strongest convection stretching from near Quincy MO to just east of Columbia MO. Behind the leading edge of convection, widespread stratiform rain with occasional lightning is being observed. KCOU/KJEF just went through the leading edge with KCOU reporting a wind gust to 33kts and brief IFR visibilites/MVFR ceilings. As a result, within the stronger convection, brief IFR visibilites/MVFR ceilings are expected. This complex of convection is forecast to continue weakening with eastward extent, resulting in lower confidence of impacts at the St. Louis metro terminals. As of now, the leading edge is forecast to arrive between 07-08z with around a 30% chance for IFR visibilites/MVFR ceilings. Lingering stratiform rain is forecast for several hours behind the convection, with visibilities forecast to stay P6SM, aside from heavier showers that may briefly result in MVFR visibilites. A cold front approaches from the northwest early this morning with MVFR/IFR ceilings expected just ahead of and behind this front. Confidence in IFR ceilings is highest at KCOU/KJEF/KUIN, with potential for below airport minimums on Tuesday, as indicated by the mention of the TEMPO group. Currently, MVFR ceilings are forecast for the St. Louis metro terminals, with the lowest ceilings (<1kft) forecast to stay to the west. Confidence also remains low with how quickly ceiling improve later this evening and into the night, with guidance generally improving conditions around 06z tonight. Ahead of the cold front, southerly winds will prevail, however, gusty and variable winds related to showers and scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Behind the cold front, northerly surface winds are forecast to prevail across the area by later this evening and continue into Wednesday. Peine && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO- Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Warren MO-Washington MO. IL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Bond IL-Calhoun IL- Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.&& $$ WFO LSX  777 FXUS63 KDVN 190917 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 417 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...12z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - A passing cold front this morning will bring about cooler weather through the mid to late week, with increasing rain chances again Thursday night through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Another squall line that generally washes out as it enters and moves acrs the local fcst area this morning, and will account for some lingering patches of post-system stratiform rain and isolated thunder through 9 AM or so. Also some chance for fields of wake low winds gushing out the backside of the decaying precip but appears less extensive than the last two mornings. Seasonably robust cold front lurks upstream acrs central into northeast IA ATTM, with RAP/CAM timing blend having it crossing the MS RVR from 15-16z this morning. Then the story will be blustery post-frontal northwest winds, a stratocu deck, and temps falling into or held well down in the 60s when normal highs for this time of year are generally in the low to mid 70s. Some spotty light showers or sprinkles may get wrung out of the stratocu cloud deck at times today, but overall mainly dry after this morning. Tonight...Clearing and cooler with the arrival of a high pressure system acrs the upper MS RVR Valley. Low temps by Wed morning will look to range from the upper 40s in the southeast, to the low 40s northwest. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday and Thursday...The ridge will look to maintain fair wx acrs the region for Wednesday with some sunshine but below normal temps with 60s during the day and 40s at night. Thursday not the warmest of days as well, with east to northeasterly boundary layer flow back from the ridge complex migrating eastward acrs the GRT LKS. The latest suite of ensembles and upper jet trends suggest longer wave troffiness to establish acrs the Rockies into the late week. As this upper trof tries to pivot northeastward with some moisture return looking to stream up off the western Gulf(but also signs of this feed getting interrupted to the south acrs the southeast plains over to the TN Valley), there may be increasing chance for some showers by late Thu or Thu night. A probable slow down with this process may then target more of a Friday into early Saturday window for precip chances. Friday through Monday...If the above mentioned scenario occurs, Friday may be mostly cloudy and continued cool with shower chances extending into Friday night. A thunderstorm also possible during this timeframe but support for much of any severe threat does not appear to be there heading into the weekend. Some temperature moderation still looks to be on tap over the weekend back to normal or even a bit above normal by the end of the period. Trying to time another passing trof with the next precip chance uncertain at this point but a few favorable ensemble solutions suggest there could be a chance on Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 411 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Stratiform rain will move acrs the BRL site early in the period, otherwise precip-wise the rest of the day will just have spotty light showers or sprinkles and more of the area will trend dry. Sfc winds will be variable or southwest this morning until the main upstream cold front slips through the area from west-to- east with a sfc wind veer to the west and eventually northwest as the morning progresses. The northwest winds may gust 25-30 KTs by afternoon. Along and post-frontal there is a substantial field of MVFR stratocu that will move acrs most of the area through evening, before some erosionand clearing occurs Tuesday evening. The sfc winds will trend north and decrease tonight and into early Wednesday morning. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...12  763 FXUS63 KEAX 190916 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 416 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cooler and drier conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures in the 60s. * Rainfall chances return Thursday, with the greatest chances (70- 80%) overnight Thursday into Friday. Strong and severe storms are not currently expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front which helped usher in a line of severe thunderstorms late Monday will continue to work its way through the region this morning. Stratiform precipitation has continued ahead of the cold front with the occasional lightning strike and rumble of thunder, though this should all come to an end later this morning with the front exiting our southern and eastern peripheries no later than 15Z. Temperatures will indeed be cooler behind the front, with today's high temperatures expected to only reach the mid 60s. Surface high pressure building off to our west will aid in keeping conditions on the calm end of the spectrum for the next 48 or so hours. The next "weather-maker", a positively-tilted upper-level trough, currently sits west of the Rockies. Low-level moisture will keep overcast conditions around during the daylight hours today with some gradual clearing beginning across northwest Missouri late this afternoon. The clearing trend is expected to continue into the overnight hours, resulting in scattered mid/high clouds for most on Wednesday. This period of lessened cloud cover will be shortlived, however, as clouds build back in later Wednesday evening during a period of increased low- level theta-e advection. The aforementioned upper-level trough will eject a subtle shortwave through the Central Plains, increasing vorticity overhead and producing lift. This shortwave will provide the forecast's first opportunity for rainfall beginning early Thursday morning. A second shortwave will traverse the region early Friday with a slightly stronger vort max, continuing rain chances generally through late morning and early afternoon in the western and eastern portions of the CWA, respectively. PoPs are currently greatest (70-80%) overnight Thursday into Friday when lift seems to be greatest, but PoPs >50% are persistent and widespread from 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday. Low-level inversions and shallow lapse rates will help prevent convection, but some very weak elevated instability could permit some rumbles of thunder amidst otherwise stratiform rain. Median rainfall accumulations from this event currently range 0.75" to 1" in our western counties, with accumulations closer to 0.5" further east. A surface low will attempt to move towards the southern MO/KS border early this weekend. However, confidence in the impact of this system remains limited due to a lack of upper-level support, so weekend precipitation chances remain low (<20%) and largely confined to our southern border of counties. Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s as we head into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to shift east and away from the TAF sites through the night. Stratiform rain along with isolated thunderstorm activity will continue overnight behind this line of severe thunderstorms before coming to an end. CIGS are expected to lower to IFR and MVFR overnight as rain tapers off, and then gradually rise through the morning and afternoon on Tuesday, becoming VFR in the afternoon. Winds will be shifting tonight to west and northwest, then out of the north during the day on Tuesday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ020>022- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>007-011>016- 023-024. KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. && $$ DISCUSSION...Macko AVIATION...WFO EAX  912 FXUS66 KSGX 190921 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 221 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures for the mountains and deserts will warm through Thursday. High temperatures for the coast and valleys will warm several more degrees today, then slowly cool into next weekend. Night and morning coastal low clouds will return and increase in coverage during the middle of the week, then spread farther into the inland valleys by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)... Weak offshore flow will continue for inland areas today with high temperatures for inland areas warming 5 to 10 degrees. High temperatures for the coast and valleys will be around 5 degrees above average for today with the mountains and deserts a few degrees below average. High temperatures for today will range from around 70 near the coast to the 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the lower to mid 90s. High temperatures for the mountains and deserts will warm another 5 degrees on Wednesday and another few degrees on Thursday. High temperatures for coastal areas will cool a few degrees on Wednesday with cooling of a few degrees spreading into the valleys on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday will be a few to around 5 degrees above average with high temperatures ranging from around 70 near the coast to the 80s for the Inland Empire with the mid to upper 90s for the lower deserts. While the NKX sounding for late Monday afternoon showed the marine layer was still around 3500 feet deep, higher-resolution model guidance shows little or no return of coastal low clouds this morning except possibly some patchy low clouds near the southern San Diego County coast before sunrise. For tonight into Wednesday morning, those models develop a weak coastal eddy with low clouds spreading northward and locally inland along the San Diego County coast, possibly into portions of Orange County. For Wednesday night into Thursday, greater inland spread of the coastal low clouds is expected with low clouds spreading into portions of the San Diego County valleys and portions of the Inland Empire. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)... Not much change in high temperatures is expected for the mountains and deserts with slight additional cooling for the coast and valleys. For next Monday, high temperatures will range from around average near the coast to around 5 degrees above average for the mountains and deserts. High temperatures for next Monday will range from around 70 near the coast to the upper 70s to upper 80s for the Inland Empire with the lower deserts in the upper 90s to 102. Night and morning coastal low clouds will spread into portions of the inland valleys late each night. && .AVIATION... 190930Z...Mostly clear skies today and tonight. Low chance (<20%) of cigs around 1500 feet MSL vcnty KSAN between 13-17Z. Increasing chance (30-70%) of low clouds to gradually develop in coastal areas after 09Z Wednesday. Offshore breezes with strongest gusts 25-30 kts through mountain passes and foothills 14-19Z today. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...MM  007 FXUS63 KBIS 190925 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 425 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain well below normal through tonight when lows could fall to near or below freezing across much of western and central North Dakota. - Warmer Wednesday through Friday, with medium chances for showers and occasional thunderstorms beginning Wednesday evening. - Above normal temperatures favored this weekend and especially early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 424 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An upper level trough extends from central Manitoba to the Great Basin early this morning, cutting through western North Dakota. At the surface, the Northern Plains lie between low pressure over Wisconsin and high pressure building over Wyoming. Extensive cloud cover across all but northwest North Dakota has kept overnight temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s thus far. Could still see a few degrees of cooling underneath the clouds, with more rapid cooling and perhaps some patchy fog where the cloud cover clears in the northwest early this morning. Despite much of the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory trending towards not working out, do not plan on making any cancellations until temperatures begin rising for the day. Strong cyclonic curvature vorticity embedded through the trough will pivot eastward through the state through this afternoon. This keeps low chances for light rain showers and sprinkles in the forecast. The cloud cover should continue to erode from west to east throughout the day, allowing high temperatures to return to around 50 east to near 60 west, still around 10 to 15 degrees below normal. As the upper trough departs to the east this evening, the Wyoming surface high will slide into eastern South Dakota with a ridge axis extending northward through eastern North Dakota. This should provide a favorable set up for strong radiational cooling over the eastern two thirds of the state. The current NBM forecast calls for widespread lows around 30 to 35 across central and eastern North Dakota, which will necessitate another around of frost/freeze headlines late tonight into Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, on the back side of the surface high, which is forecast to line up underneath a low- amplitude mid level ridge, increasing southeasterly surface flow paired with increasing mid to high clouds should keep overnight temperatures above freezing in much of the western third of the state, except perhaps in sheltered areas across the southwest. An appreciable warm up to near or even above normal high temperatures in the 60s and 70s is forecast on Wednesday as a brief period of quasi-zonal flow is established over the Northern Plains ahead of a potent shortwave digging from Alberta southward into the Northern Rockies. The amplifying trough, which could feature a closed mid to upper low circulation along the Montana-Saskatchewan border, will turn flow aloft southwesterly for Thursday before the trough begins to shift eastward through the region on Friday. This could lead to a period of active weather beginning as early as late Wednesday afternoon in northwest North Dakota when high-resolution guidance is favoring the development of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, spreading southward and eastward through Wednesday evening. An ensemble-averaged CAPE/shear parameter space (on the order of 500 J/kg and 25 kts) does not appear to favor stronger convection, but direct surface wind gust output from CAMs shows potential for some gusty winds with any storm that develops, which fits the modeled inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. The highest chances for showers are Thursday into Friday when the NBM paints widespread medium chances (around 40 to 60 percent) across the state, with its axis of highest chances shifting from western North Dakota on Thursday to eastern North Dakota on Friday. A few afternoon and evening thunderstorms could develop each of these 2 days as well, but there is uncertainty in the location of an inverted surface trough which is favored to contain a ribbon of up to around 500 J/kg CAPE. This is also tied to areal uncertainty of the highest QPF through Friday, with ensemble clusters showing a meridional axis of high probabilities for at least 0.25" QPF and medium probabilities for at least 0.5" as far west as against the Montana border and as far east as from the Devils Lake Basin to between the James and Red River Valleys. This leads to total ensemble QPF threshold probabilities per the NBM as broadly medium for exceeding 0.25" and low for exceeding 0.5" across most of western and central North Dakota. Temperatures are forecast to remain closer to normal Thursday and Friday, with highs around 65 to 70 and lows around 40 to 45. But any persistent areas of rain or clouds could cause locally cooler highs or warmer lows on either day. The mid/upper trough is forecast to lift northeastward in time for the weekend. Ensemble guidance then favors a more progressive, high-amplitude wave pattern through early next week with large spread on the timing of troughs and ridges. Even so, there is a distinct warming trend to above normal temperatures, with highs favored to reach the 80s Sunday through Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain very low (less than 20 percent) at this time from Saturday onward on account of the aforementioned uncertainty, but this may not be truly reflective of the more active pattern that is being projected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 424 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings with pockets of IFR across much of western and central North Dakota early this morning, with isolated light rain showers/sprinkles across the south. Ceilings should lift and/or clear from west to east later this morning through the afternoon. Light rain showers or sprinkles will remain possible through the afternoon, mainly from central into eastern North Dakota, with no impacts to aviation expected. Winds will remain northwesterly around 5 kts in western North Dakota to 15 kts at KJMS through this afternoon, then become light and variable over central North Dakota and southeasterly around 10 kts in western North Dakota this evening into tonight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-017>020-022-031>033-040-041-043-044- 055>059. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ013-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-060>062. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan  567 FXUS65 KVEF 190937 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 237 AM PDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures will warm up through the week as a dry weather pattern sets up over the region. && .DISCUSSION...through early next week. A weak and baggy trough remains across the Western US today which will keep temperatures on the cooler side of normal with some lingering northerly breezes through the day. Heights will gradually rise through the remainder of the week allowing for a gradual warming trend, with afternoon highs returning to near normal Wednesday, and climbing above normal by the weekend. Aside from temperatures, dry conditions are expected through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak low pressure center may develop across the eastern Pacific early next week which may bring an increase in cloud cover and some very low chances for showers to the higher terrain of northwest Arizona. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Wind speeds will remain at or below 10KT through the early morning, backing from the northeast this evening to the north overnight. By mid-morning Tuesday, winds increase to 10-12KT, shifting to the northeast with intermittent gusts to around 20KT expected into early afternoon. Gusts will diminish a bit more quickly on Tuesday, with northeasterly winds around 8KT expected to become light, backing to the northwest through the evening. VFR conditions will continue. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Wind speeds across the region are expected to remain 5-10KT overnight as winds back to the north and northwest in most areas. By mid- morning Tuesday, winds veer to the northeast, increasing to 10-15KT with gusts to around 20-25KT expected through mid-afternoon, mainly across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Through the Lower Colorado River Valley from KIFP to KEED, stronger northerly winds will occur, increasing to 15-20KT gusting 20-35KT through the day Tuesday. These winds will diminish a bit around sunset. VFR conditions will prevail with only a few high clouds drifting across the southern part of the forecast area late in the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Berc For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  624 FXUS62 KCHS 190938 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 538 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation section was updated for the 19/12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore will maintain its influence on the region today. Subsidence will begin to increase aloft later today as the pronounced Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) positioned near 29N/73W prior to daybreak draws closer to the Southeast U.S. coast and continues to slides west beneath the subtropical anticyclone centered well east of Cape Hatteras. This coupled with low 850 hPa theta-e will keep rain- free conditions in place even as a pure sea breeze circulation moves steadily inland through the afternoon and evening. Highs will continue to run a few degrees above normal with highs poised to peak in the lower 90s inland to the mid-upper 70s at the beaches. Similar to the past few days, the boundary layer will likely not completely decouple until well after midnight as the sea breeze moves into the Southern Midlands, CSRA and east-central Georgia. Light winds and mostly clear skies will support modest radiational cooling with lows ranging from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. Another round of shallow ground fog appear likely away from the beaches, but impacts should be minimal with models show rather high 1000 hPa condensation pressure deficits. Sfc high pressure holds tight across the region through Wednesday. allowing quiet conditions to prevail. As noted in days past, should see the upper level pattern shift as we head into the latter half of the week, when a shortwave trough deepens across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, at the sfc, will see a cold front extending from Maine to Texas dive southeastward ahead of this feature, causing rain chances to return to the forecast. Unfortunately, model guidance and certainty remain rather poor at this time, keeping overall confidence in rainfall occurrence and timing low. Latest trends would favor a stronger ridge over the Atlantic, resulting in the aforementioned front and forcing staying further west and north of our area. As such, this scenario would entail seeing less precipitation across our area than previously forecasted. In fact, current ensemble probabilities for seeing rainfall accumulations greater than one inch through Saturday have now dropped to less than 25% (with the greatest threat still inland) - whereas yesterday probabilities ranged from 20-60%. Certainly something to keep an eye on, as model runs could still shift in the coming days. Otherwise, expect the severe potential with any shower/storm to remain low, given the lack of forcing and moisture in place. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 19/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Shallow ground fog at all three terminals will quickly dissipate at sunrise. VFR for the period. Gusty winds will occur with the passage of the sea breeze this afternoon. Shallow ground fog will be possible again at all terminals early Wednesday morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Quiet conditions will persist with the region positioned along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. East/southeast winds will prevail with speeds less than 15 kt, although some local enhancement along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor will likely occur with the sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 ft.Wednesday through Friday: No marine concerns are expected. High pressure to the east will drive onshore east-southeasterly flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas should average 2-4 feet through the period. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  156 FXUS62 KFFC 190949 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 549 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue through the work week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Increased rain chances return tomorrow through the weekend, especially in northern and western Georgia. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 455 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Temperatures will quickly climb into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon, with relative humidity falling into the upper 30% range as high pressure keeps moisture off to the west of the CWA. This will prevent afternoon thunderstorms for a final day before we reintroduce them to the forecast tomorrow. Winds will be light out of the S/SE at less than 10mph. Overnight lows will remain in the 60s and moisture values across NW Georgia will increase out ahead of a cold front pushing through the TN river valley area. As a result, the best chance for thunderstorms will be limited to the far northwest tomorrow during the afternoon and early evening. While a few rumbles of thunder are possible, widespread severe weather appears unlikely in this dry environment. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 455 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A weakening cold front will have entered the far northern tier by the time the long term period picks up on Wednesday evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger across far north and west Georgia in the closest vicinity to the front, though coverage will steadily diminish after sunset and thunderstorms will come to an end after midnight. As ridging over the Atlantic Coast and west Atlantic continues to flatten, the front will make some minimal progress southward during the early morning, eventually stalling north of I-20 amid southwesterly flow aloft during the daytime on Thursday. Temperatures and dewpoints will start the morning on Thursday in the mid to upper 60s across the area. High temperatures will be slightly cooler across far north Georgia (in the low to mid 80s) behind the front compared to upper 80s elsewhere in north Georgia and low 90s in central Georgia. Hot and humid conditions will support diurnally enhanced convection, with PoPs of 60-80% in the northern half of the area closest to the frontal boundary, and 30-50% in the southern half of the area. The front will become less defined and begin to lift back northward on Friday within southwest mid-level flow along the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. This southwesterly flow will intensify as a second ridge approaches from the Great Plains, giving the front an additional push away to the north. While this ridge sets up over the eastern CONUS during the weekend, the aforementioned southwesterly flow will continue to spread ample moisture into the forecast area. Temperatures rising into the 80s and low 90s each day along with ample moisture will lead to scattered to numerous diurnal convection each day through the weekend into early next week. Coverage of storms will be greatest during the afternoon and evening. At this time, the deepest moisture and highest PWATs will keep the most consistent heavy rainfall west of Georgia. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 VFR expected through the day. A CU field will develop after 16Z bringing a SCT low VFR deck, with mostly clear skies returning after 00Z. Winds will be out of the SE at 5kts or less. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High on all elements. Vaughn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 90 66 91 66 / 0 0 10 10 Atlanta 89 69 89 69 / 0 0 20 20 Blairsville 85 62 8562 / 0 0 20 20 Cartersville 90 65 90 65 / 0 0 20 20 Columbus 91 68 91 68 / 0 0 10 10 Gainesville 88 66 88 67 / 0 0 10 10 Macon 90 66 91 67 / 0 0 10 10 Rome 88 64 88 63 / 0 0 20 20 Peachtree City 89 66 90 66 / 0 0 10 10 Vidalia 91 65 91 67 / 10 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vaughn LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Vaughn  357 FXUS63 KTOP 190955 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 455 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cooler airmass keeps highs in the 60s through Thursday as modified Canadian air settles across the area. - Next precipitation chance arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday as a western trough lifts through, but severe weather is not expected given limited instability and quality moisture return. - Temperatures warm through the holiday weekend with highs returning to the 70s and 80s by Saturday into Memorial Day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A cold front pushed through the area overnight, leaving anafrontal showers across eastern portions of the CWA early this morning. Modified Canadian high pressure builds in through the day, bringing drier conditions and a reinforced cool airmass with highs only reaching the mid to upper 60s today through Thursday. The next forecast challenge arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday as a mid-level trough emerges from the Rockies and lifts northeast across the region. Moisture return remains limited ahead of this system, with surface dewpoints struggling to recover into the lower 50s. Instability is expected to be minimal as a result, keeping severe weather probability low with low QPF amounts expected. A warming trend takes hold heading into the holiday weekend as the pattern becomes more amplified and southerly flow returns. Highs climb into the upper 70s by Saturday with lower 80s possible by Memorial Day. Increasing moisture return may bring additional precipitation chances late in the extended period, though confidence remains limited with spread widening amongst the ENS, GEFS and GEPS solutions at this range. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 451 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A brief period of IFR conditions to start the period mainly at KTOP/KFOE then cigs improve to marginal VFR across all terminals into midday before lifting to VFR by mid to late afternoon. A steady breeze should remain from the north through the day before calming into this evening. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ020-KSZ034. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Drake