028 FXUS64 KFWD 191211 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 711 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected along a cold front on Tuesday across much of North and Central TX. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue Wednesday into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible but the severe weather threat appears low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 712 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 We are still expecting thunderstorms to develop across most of North and Central Texas later today, however an overnight MCS well to our south has shifted things up a bit. Since we are on the far northern periphery of the MCS, most of the area along/east of I-35 is currently under a localized area of mid-and upper-level subsidence. This is helping keep a lid on any early-morning pre- frontal deep convective attempts in North Texas that the evening guidance was suggesting. The 12Z FWD RAOB sounding indicates a strong cap residing over the region that should hold for the next few hours as well. As the MCSs cirrus canopy moves east, it will open the door for thunderstorm development over the course of the day today. We're watching a cold front and/or strong outflow boundary that is currently in southern Oklahoma and Western North Texas that will serve as the main trigger mechanism for thunderstorms today. It should be more than sufficient to overcome any inhibition, particularly as we head into the afternoon. The overall forecast trends this afternoon and severe threats haven't changed much, but small-scale boundary interactions will cause some areas to be relatively precip-free for most of the day, despite widespread storms across other portions of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite imagery shows a rapid expansion of low clouds over the last 2 hours across Central and North Texas indicative of strong low level warm moist advection. A 40-50 kt low level jet is indicated on both the FWS and GRK VAD wind profiles which will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward into the region overnight while resulting in intermittent strong wind gusts. Farther to our north, a cold front is sagging south through Oklahoma with a line of showers and thunderstorms draped across the northwest part of the state. This front will continue to move south toward the Red River by sunrise and will serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms across North Texas later in the day. Continued warm advection ahead of the front should result in a few scattered showers beneath a modest capping inversion through the early morning hours, but convection should become more numerous by late morning and early afternoon as the front approaches the I-20 corridor. The high resolution guidance has a pretty good handle on the frontal boundary, but there are some differences in convective evolution through midday. As the low level jet begins to veer and pull off to the northeast, some of the guidance takes the bulk of the stronger storms through the Arklatex, with a weaker line extending westward along the I-20 corridor. This seems plausible given that we'll have some capping and time of day would result in a minimum in surface based instability across the Metroplex. Additional strong storms would then be likely to develop a little later in the day farther to the south and west along the frontal boundary when stronger heating results in more instability. The rest of the guidance just brings a line of showers and storms all the way through North Texas with no general weakening trend through midday and further intensification south of I-20 into the afternoon. While it's difficult to pin down the exact scenario that will play out, given the current radar trends to the north, strength of the low level jet and availability of 3000+J/kg of MUCAPE, we'll lean toward this line of storms maintaining some intensity through the early morning hours as it crosses the Red River and approaches I-20 through midday. Further intensification of this line is expected by afternoon as very strong instability will be present along with additional support from a weak embedded shortwave spreading out of Mexico. There will be a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail with any of the storms today. The tornado threat is very low compared to our last few severe weather events. High temperatures will likely be held in check with extensive cloud cover and scattered convection. We'll keep highs in the low/mid 80s Tuesday afternoon. The front and the line of storms should push into Central TX by late in the day with the frontal boundary becoming stalled out Tuesday night. There will be an increasing potential for heavy rainfall, mainly in Central Texas with any lingering activity Tuesday night. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 With the remnant frontal boundary still draped across Central Texas on Wednesday, we'll see scattered showers and thunderstorms continue, although the best coverage will be to our south and east through the afternoon. Most areas in North Texas will remain dry with PoPs only around 20%. By Wednesday night into Thursday, an upstream shortwave will spread into West Texas with height falls overspreading the Southern Plains. A moisture rich atmosphere will be in place across North Texas with PWs in the 1.7-1.9" range. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across West Texas Wednesday night and across all of North and Central TX on Thursday. This will likely be the day we see the heaviest rainfall and potential for flash flooding. At this time, the current forecast has most areas picking up 1 to 3 inches of rain, but some of our southern and southeastern counties may receive as much as 5 inches of rain through the end of the week. With the upper pattern continuing to feature slow moving upper disturbances within an area of broad forcing for ascent and PW values just shy of 2 inches, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the end of the week and into the weekend. The overall severe weather threat appears to be pretty low during this time, but the threat for efficient rainfall producing storms and associated flooding will increase by Thursday into the weekend. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 712 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An active weather day is expected to unfold over the course of the day today. An overnight MCS well to our south has helped bring in a localized area of mid/upper-level descent which will squash storm chances for the next several hours. Despite this, a few light rain showers will continue through the morning but we have opted not to include VCSH into the TAFs for simplicity's sake to not drown out the main forecast message below. We are expecting thunderstorms to ignite along a cold front and/or strong outflow boundary that is currently moving through southern Oklahoma/Western North Texas. It should start to encroach on D10 in the mid-to-late morning and slowly move south over the course of the afternoon. Given the anticipated slow-down of the front INVOF D10 and the influence of the MCS to our south, thunderstorm timing today is quite uncertain. We nudged the timing back an hour compared to our earlier forecasts, but we will have to continue to assess timing throughout the morning. We generally expect most of the storms to move south/east of D10 by the mid to late afternoon. The MCS will have a bigger impact on ACT/Central Texas, where we moved back thunderstorms several hours compared to our earlier forecasts. There is potential for another round of storms tonight, mainly for Central Texas/ACT, but we do not have enough confidence at this time to include overnight thunder in the TAF at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Limited spotter activation may be requested on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 64 80 67 / 90 50 20 50 Waco 84 66 81 68 / 90 90 20 50 Paris 81 63 77 66 / 90 40 30 40 Denton 80 62 78 65 / 90 40 20 50 McKinney 81 63 81 66 / 90 40 20 50 Dallas 82 65 80 68 / 90 50 20 50 Terrell 82 64 81 66 / 90 60 20 50 Corsicana 86 65 80 70 / 90 80 30 50 Temple 86 66 80 69 / 80 90 20 60 Mineral Wells 83 62 78 64 / 90 50 20 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dunn/Bonnette LONG TERM....Dunn AVIATION...Bonnette  091 FXUS62 KCAE 191244 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 844 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. - 2. Rain chances increase late week onward, but drought conditions to persist. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. Amplified east coast ridging and offshore surface high pressure this week lead to high confidence in above normal temperatures through the end of this week. Mid-May normals generally fall in the mid-80s, while blended guidance through Thursday yields highs in the low to mid 90s with small (less than 3 degree F) interquartile ranges. Temperatures may decrease just slightly into the upper 80s Friday into this weekend with a bit more moisture around, but should still remain above climatology. This is mainly in response to the upper ridge translating slightly eastward and better rain chances across the area, but more on that in Key Message #2. It should be noted that early season heat can contribute to an increased risk of heat- related illness, and much of the area will be in a Moderate Heat Risk through Thursday, with the threat decreasing Friday into the weekend. Key Message 2: Rain chances increase late week onward, but drought conditions to persist. Overall deterministic and ensemble guidance keep the Rex block in place off the east coast this week, but a slight shift eastward is expected in the second half of the forecast period. This should lead to increasing moisture over the Southeast from Thursday through Memorial Day as southwest flow strengthens aloft. Coupled with persistent low level southeast flow around the Bermuda high, PWAT values rise to just above normal, with GEFS mean values of 125-150%. The result should be increased chances for daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, particularly given the expected strong heating and above normal temperatures previously mentioned. Additionally, some enhancement may occur across the northern and western portions of the forecast area closer to where the best moisture transport is, and where there is a higher likelihood of a few shortwaves moving through the flow. We're still a bit too far out to be talking about specific rainfall amounts, but the GEFS 50th percentile QPF through Saturday night ranges from only a few hundredths across the southeast Midlands to just under 0.75" in the western and northern Midlands with a gradient in between. As such, it appears that any rain we do get at least through Saturday will not have much impact on our ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through majority of the TAF period, another round of patchy stratus and/or fog possible Wednesday morning. Patchy fog is clearing AGS/OGB this morning, giving way to VFR conditions. The remainder of the day may see FEW cumulus and some passing cirrus as south to south-southeasterly winds pick up to 6-9 kts. These winds likely become light and variable again tonight and through the end of the TAF period. Early Wednesday morning, guidance indicates patchy stratus or fog could be possible mainly toward AGS/OGB, but some cirrus may be moving in as well which may limit this. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture may result in brief restrictions at the terminals due to low clouds and/or fog each day this week. Rain chances increase Thursday and into this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EC AVIATION...DH  307 FXUS62 KCHS 191247 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 847 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation section was updated for the 19/12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time. Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore will maintain its influence on the region today. Subsidence will begin to increase aloft later today as the pronounced Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) positioned near 29N/73W prior to daybreak draws closer to the Southeast U.S. coast and continues to slides west beneath the subtropical anticyclone centered well east of Cape Hatteras. This coupled with low 850 hPa theta-e will keep rain- free conditions in place even as a pure sea breeze circulation moves steadily inland through the afternoon and evening. Highs will continue to run a few degrees above normal with highs poised to peak in the lower 90s inland to the mid-upper 70s at the beaches. Similar to the past few days, the boundary layer will likely not completely decouple until well after midnight as the sea breeze moves into the Southern Midlands, CSRA and east-central Georgia. Light winds and mostly clear skies will support modest radiational cooling with lows ranging from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. Another round of shallow ground fog appear likely away from the beaches, but impacts should be minimal with models show rather high 1000 hPa condensation pressure deficits. Sfc high pressure holds tight across the region through Wednesday, allowing quiet conditions to prevail. As noted in days past, should see the upper level pattern shift as we head into the latter half of the week, when a shortwave trough deepens across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, at the sfc, will see a cold front extending from Maine to Texas dive southeastward ahead of this feature, causing rain chances to return to the forecast. Unfortunately, model guidance and certainty remain rather poor at this time, keeping overall confidence in rainfall occurrence and timing low. Latest trends would favor a stronger ridge over the Atlantic, resulting in the aforementioned front and forcing staying further west and north of our area. As such, this scenario would entail seeing less precipitation across our area than previously forecasted. In fact, current ensemble probabilities for seeing rainfall accumulations greater than one inch through Saturday have now dropped to less than 25% (with the greatest threat still inland) - whereas yesterday probabilities ranged from 20-60%. Certainly something to keep an eye on, as model runs could still shift in the coming days. Otherwise, expect the severe potential with any shower/storm to remain low, given the lack of forcing and moisture in place. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 19/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Shallow ground fog at all three terminals will quickly dissipate at sunrise. VFR for the period. Gusty winds will occur with the passage of the sea breeze this afternoon. Shallow ground fog will be possible again at all terminals early Wednesday morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Quiet conditions will persist with the region positioned along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. East/southeast winds will prevail with speeds less than 15 kt, although some local enhancement along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor will likely occur with the sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 ft.Wednesday through Friday: No marine concerns are expected. High pressure to the east will drive onshore east-southeasterly flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas should average 2-4 feet through the period. Rip Currents: Influences from the new moon cycle combined with persistent onshore flow will produce an elevated risk of rip currents. A moderate risk for rip currents is in place for all beaches today. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$  380 FXUS62 KTBW 191251 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 851 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected each day through the next week. - Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day this week, mainly in the afternoon into the evening hours. - Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 850 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Easterly flow continues at 10 to 20 knots in the low levels, and with enough moisture, precipitable water between 1.5 and 1.7 inches, we'll see more convection develop this afternoon and evening. The easterly flow will keep the sea breeze pinned to the coast and therefore the best chances will be near the west coast like yesterday. Otherwise, it will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures climbing into the lower and middle 90s. Forecast looks on track at this time with no adjustments needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 850 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A few areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning as daytime heating gets underway, then more MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible this afternoon and evening in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with easterly winds increasing to around 10 knots this morning. Could see a shift to westerly at SRQ early this afternoon before convection gets going, otherwise the overall easterly flow will persist into this evening then diminish to 4 to 7 knots overnight. Gusty and erratic winds possible near showers and thunderstorms && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Persistent pattern will be relatively locked in for the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula through the week with the ridge axis located north of the forecast area. This will produce east to southeast boundary layer flow across the peninsula through the weekend. The west coast sea breeze boundary will develop each day with the southeast flow holding the boundary over the coastal counties. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon along the boundary with the greatest areal coverage from the Tampa Bay area and south. Stronger storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH and small hail. An U/L low east of the Bahamas will drift northwest to just off the east coast of Florida. This will in effect create lower heights over west central and southwest Florida which will aid in increasing convective instability for the next several days. A strong U/L ridge will build over the forecast area during the weekend increasing large scale subsidence over the region. Although afternoon scattered showers/storms are still expected to develop along the west coast sea breeze boundary, the increased subsidence will decrease overall coverage of storms. Offshore flow will aid in continuing above normal daily temperatures across west central and southwest Florida with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. The increased subsidence over the weekend will allow temperatures to climb even a few degrees higher. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Surface high pressure will hold over the waters through the period with no headlines expected. Main hazard will be showers/storms developing over land each day that will push locally offshore during the afternoon/evening hours creating locally strong winds and rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1206 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidityvalues above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 74 91 76 / 60 30 40 10 FMY 92 74 92 73 / 60 20 60 20 GIF 91 72 91 72 / 20 0 30 10 SRQ 93 72 91 74 / 70 30 40 20 BKV 94 69 93 70 / 40 10 30 10 SPG 94 75 93 76 / 60 40 30 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley  118 FXUS64 KFWD 191211 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 711 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected along a cold front on Tuesday across much of North and Central TX. Some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail. - Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue Wednesday into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible but the severe weather threat appears low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 712 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 We are still expecting thunderstorms to develop across most of North and Central Texas later today, however an overnight MCS well to our south has shifted things up a bit. Since we are on the far northern periphery of the MCS, most of the area along/east of I-35 is currently under a localized area of mid-and upper-level subsidence. This is helping keep a lid on any early-morning pre- frontal deep convective attempts in North Texas that the evening guidance was suggesting. The 12Z FWD RAOB sounding indicates a strong cap residing over the region that should hold for the next few hours as well. As the MCSs cirrus canopy moves east, it will open the door for thunderstorm development over the course of the day today. We're watching a cold front and/or strong outflow boundary that is currently in southern Oklahoma and Western North Texas that will serve as the main trigger mechanism for thunderstorms today. It should be more than sufficient to overcome any inhibition, particularly as we head into the afternoon. The overall forecast trends this afternoon and severe threats haven't changed much, but small-scale boundary interactions will cause some areas to be relatively precip-free for most of the day, despite widespread storms across other portions of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite imagery shows a rapid expansion of low clouds over the last 2 hours across Central and North Texas indicative of strong low level warm moist advection. A 40-50 kt low level jet is indicated on both the FWS and GRK VAD wind profiles which will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward into the region overnight while resulting in intermittent strong wind gusts. Farther to our north, a cold front is sagging south through Oklahoma with a line of showers and thunderstorms draped across the northwest part of the state. This front will continue to move south toward the Red River by sunrise and will serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms across North Texas later in the day. Continued warm advection ahead of the front should result in a few scattered showers beneath a modest capping inversion through the early morning hours, but convection should become more numerous by late morning and early afternoon as the front approaches the I-20 corridor. The high resolution guidance has a pretty good handle on the frontal boundary, but there are some differences in convective evolution through midday. As the low level jet begins to veer and pull off to the northeast, some of the guidance takes the bulk of the stronger storms through the Arklatex, with a weaker line extending westward along the I-20 corridor. This seems plausible given that we'll have some capping and time of day would result in a minimum in surface based instability across the Metroplex. Additional strong storms would then be likely to develop a little later in the day farther to the south and west along the frontal boundary when stronger heating results in more instability. The rest of the guidance just brings a line of showers and storms all the way through North Texas with no general weakening trend through midday and further intensification south of I-20 into the afternoon. While it's difficult to pin down the exact scenario that will play out, given the current radar trends to the north, strength of the low level jet and availability of 3000+J/kg of MUCAPE, we'll lean toward this line of storms maintaining some intensity through the early morning hours as it crosses the Red River and approaches I-20 through midday. Further intensification of this line is expected by afternoon as very strong instability will be present along with additional support from a weak embedded shortwave spreading out of Mexico. There will be a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail with any of the storms today. The tornado threat is very low compared to our last few severe weather events. High temperatures will likely be held in check with extensive cloud cover and scattered convection. We'll keep highs in the low/mid 80s Tuesday afternoon. The front and the line of storms should push into Central TX by late in the day with the frontal boundary becoming stalled out Tuesday night. There will be an increasing potential for heavy rainfall, mainly in Central Texas with any lingering activity Tuesday night. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 With the remnant frontal boundary still draped across Central Texas on Wednesday, we'll see scattered showers and thunderstorms continue, although the best coverage will be to our south and east through the afternoon. Most areas in North Texas will remain dry with PoPs only around 20%. By Wednesday night into Thursday, an upstream shortwave will spread into West Texas with height falls overspreading the Southern Plains. A moisture rich atmosphere will be in place across North Texas with PWs in the 1.7-1.9" range. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across West Texas Wednesday night and across all of North and Central TX on Thursday. This will likely be the day we see the heaviest rainfall and potential for flash flooding. At this time, the current forecast has most areas picking up 1 to 3 inches of rain, but some of our southern and southeastern counties may receive as much as 5 inches of rain through the end of the week. With the upper pattern continuing to feature slow moving upper disturbances within an area of broad forcing for ascent and PW values just shy of 2 inches, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the end of the week and into the weekend. The overall severe weather threat appears to be pretty low during this time, but the threat for efficient rainfall producing storms and associated flooding will increase by Thursday into the weekend. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 712 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 An active weather day is expected to unfold over the course of the day today. An overnight MCS well to our south has helped bring in a localized area of mid/upper-level descent which will squash storm chances for the next several hours. Despite this, a few light rain showers will continue through the morning but we have opted not to include VCSH into the TAFs for simplicity's sake to not drown out the main forecast message below. We are expecting thunderstorms to ignite along a cold front and/or strong outflow boundary that is currently moving through southern Oklahoma/Western North Texas. It should start to encroach on D10 in the mid-to-late morning and slowly move south over the course of the afternoon. Given the anticipated slow-down of the front INVOF D10 and the influence of the MCS to our south, thunderstorm timing today is quite uncertain. We nudged the timing back an hour compared to our earlier forecasts, but we will have to continue to assess timing throughout the morning. We generally expect most of the storms to move south/east of D10 by the mid to late afternoon. The MCS will have a bigger impact on ACT/Central Texas, where we moved back thunderstorms several hours compared to our earlier forecasts. There is potential for another round of storms tonight, mainly for Central Texas/ACT, but we do not have enough confidence at this time to include overnight thunder in the TAF at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Limited spotter activation may be requested on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 64 80 67 / 90 50 20 50 Waco 84 66 81 68 / 90 90 20 50 Paris 81 63 77 66 / 90 40 30 40 Denton 80 62 78 65 / 90 40 20 50 McKinney 81 63 81 66 / 90 40 20 50 Dallas 82 65 80 68 / 90 50 20 50 Terrell 82 64 81 66 / 90 60 20 50 Corsicana 86 65 80 70 / 90 80 30 50 Temple 86 66 80 69 / 80 90 20 60 Mineral Wells 83 62 78 64 / 90 50 20 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dunn/Bonnette LONG TERM....Dunn AVIATION...Bonnette  332 FXUS62 KCAE 191244 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 844 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. - 2. Rain chances increase late week onward, but drought conditions to persist. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Above normal temperatures likely into this weekend. Amplified east coast ridging and offshore surface high pressure this week lead to high confidence in above normal temperatures through the end of this week. Mid-May normals generally fall in the mid-80s, while blended guidance through Thursday yields highs in the low to mid 90s with small (less than 3 degree F) interquartile ranges. Temperatures may decrease just slightly into the upper 80s Friday into this weekend with a bit more moisture around, but should still remain above climatology. This is mainly in response to the upper ridge translating slightly eastward and better rain chances across the area, but more on that in Key Message #2. It should be noted that early season heat can contribute to an increased risk of heat- related illness, and much of the area will be in a Moderate Heat Risk through Thursday, with the threat decreasing Friday into the weekend. Key Message 2: Rain chances increase late week onward, but drought conditions to persist. Overall deterministic and ensemble guidance keep the Rex block in place off the east coast this week, but a slight shift eastward is expected in the second half of the forecast period. This should lead to increasing moisture over the Southeast from Thursday through Memorial Day as southwest flow strengthens aloft. Coupled with persistent low level southeast flow around the Bermuda high, PWAT values rise to just above normal, with GEFS mean values of 125-150%. The result should be increased chances for daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, particularly given the expected strong heating and above normal temperatures previously mentioned. Additionally, some enhancement may occur across the northern and western portions of the forecast area closer to where the best moisture transport is, and where there is a higher likelihood of a few shortwaves moving through the flow. We're still a bit too far out to be talking about specific rainfall amounts, but the GEFS 50th percentile QPF through Saturday night ranges from only a few hundredths across the southeast Midlands to just under 0.75" in the western and northern Midlands with a gradient in between. As such, it appears that any rain we do get at least through Saturday will not have much impact on our ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through majority of the TAF period, another round of patchy stratus and/or fog possible Wednesday morning. Patchy fog is clearing AGS/OGB this morning, giving way to VFR conditions. The remainder of the day may see FEW cumulus and some passing cirrus as south to south-southeasterly winds pick up to 6-9 kts. These winds likely become light and variable again tonight and through the end of the TAF period. Early Wednesday morning, guidance indicates patchy stratus or fog could be possible mainly toward AGS/OGB, but some cirrus may be moving in as well which may limit this. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increased moisture may result in brief restrictions at the terminals due to low clouds and/or fog each day this week. Rain chances increase Thursday and into this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EC AVIATION...DH